North Point of View: Recent Episodes
North Point of View
Mark Hall is a commercial real estate agent and land developer based in Savannah. His experience in the local market over the last 30 years gives him a unique level of expertise and knowledge. Mr. Hall’s approach to real estate is relationship-based. Throughout his career he has developed connections with community and municipal leaders which he harnesses for the benefit of his clients. Mr. Hall has helped acquire strategic tracts of land and get them entitled/rezoned for the large scale industrial warehousing and distribution centers. Collectively this represents over 3,200 acres of industrial development around the seaport.
Dr. Walter Kemmsies is widely viewed as one of the foremost experts on ports, rail, and infrastructure in the U.S. His areas of expertise include demand forecasting, maritime and overall global trade regulatory issues, public and private port and infrastructure financing, and long term strategic planning and capital investment. Having worked in major cities all over the world, Walter has a global perspective which uniquely qualifies him as a global trade economist. Walter currently advises several major U.S. Port Authorities and is routinely asked to work on complex issues with various investment banks, private equity firms, and public regulatory agencies.
In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss the Panama and Suez Canal.
Excerpt:
Mark: Two months ago, it felt like we were in borderline panic. Panama canal dried up, and the Houthis have taken over the Suez Canal, and it was a major threat to the East Coast.
Walter: The Houthi rebels received a lot of weaponry from Iran and they used the the weaponry to shoot at defenseless commercial ships. It's just an act of cowardice and stupidity. China made some kind of peace with the Houthis, and then the Houthis turned around and shot a Chinese container ship. They're pirates and they're not very smart pirates. In the very beginning, they shot a ship that had been leased by the Israelis. Then at the end of the of the year, it had been released to a Chinese entity. The Chinese were sailing it through the canal and the Houthis, took potshots at it. China is like, what the hell? We're not Israel, because the Houthis were only shooting at Israeli ships at the time. What happens is the database they were using on which ships are registered to whom you can read on the ship, the AIS signals. Well, there's AIS signals that come off the ships and you can go online to marinetraffic.com and you can see which ship it is. The problem is your ship registration database is old by about three months and so ooops.
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In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the failure of a four year college degree and student loans.
Excerpt: Walter: Some months ago on one of our podcasts, I'd said to you that I felt that the student debt for a lot of students, not every student, but for certain students, it should be forgiven. They borrowed money because the college education was going to give them a higher income so that they could pay off the debt. But I think the vast majority of students, they got this education and they can't use it to make enough money to pay off the debt that they have.
So the university system has effectively stolen money and wealth from kids who went to their colleges. It’s insidious the way universities and colleges do it. The students weren't properly trained. They weren't set up to have a career. The point of going to college was to get educated so you could do things. Now you go to college simply to get a diploma that says, I graduated from college.
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In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss the 2023 recession that never happen.
Excerpt
Walter: I said, I don't think there was a recession. In fact, I think the 2023 recession was everywhere but in the data. But we don't have the last bit of data for the last two months. Right. Let's get him to come on. So he got up and the first thing he did was we have to apologize as there was no recession. So during the Q&A, I referred to it to him as being on the apology tour. So now everybody say no recession for this year (2024). That's the consensus view.
Mark: The soft landing, which of course, when everybody says it, then that's when I get worried.
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I've had a Roomba now for almost 15 years. Often times it gets stuck. You got to pick it up. You got to move it. You've got to give it a kick. Well, you know, it is kind of primitive software. But then I thought, you don't need very complicated software. You just got to make sure you've got enough sensors and the sensors, conveying location information, then we should be fine. To me, that's the problem with the robot. So the more sensors you put in there, I think the better it will operate because, they can't see. The technology is blind. Read The Singularity, a book by Ray Kurzweil. He basically says around 2040 we'll have machines that will be able to repair themselves, but also to invent themselves. This is also where you get a little worried about those, doomsday science fiction stories where the machines take over the world.
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It's not just Evergrande who just blew up, but the number two and number three, they've also all crashed and burned. Then when you go down to the much smaller developers, it's a raging forest fire. People are trying to get their money back from the bank because deposits they made for the construction of apartments or houses, it's not happening. These developers don't have the money and they can't proceed. When you go to the bank to get your money, you can't get your money. What we've seen in the last six, seven, eight months is actual protests outside the banks and in the streets. In China, that's a no no. The population is getting angry and picking up sticks and clubs and whatever they can, because, you know, this is how revolutions get started.
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You and I talked about this a few years ago. One of the videos about the slowing population growth rate. And I was lucky during most of my career, the population growth rate for the US was one to 2%. It was 2% and it dropped towards 1.41%. But that was enough to sustain GDP growth of 2 to 3 and a half percent. And so I could do a lot of good calculations based off of demographic growth. Look at Japan, they have positive GDP growth, but they have negative population growth.
Negative workforce growth is still shrinking. Japan is what I've been looking at the most and all the adaptation that they've had to do. The simple example is in Japan, they don't have enough medical people. We don't either but you go online in Japan and you say, I'm sick, and then the A.I. comes and this is ten years ago.
It's not just recent, not this A.I. bullshit, that we're talking about these few years. This goes back then because doctors are viewed as encyclopedias. You list the symptoms, the symptoms are consistent with these diseases. Then you ask a few more questions to narrow it down. And these last two diseases get the same medical treatment. Then it's reviewed by a nurse. And if the nurse isn't sure, they check with the doctor. But basically the nurse clicks the box and prescription sent to the pharmacy, and then the pharmacy then deliver it to your house. That's where we need to go.
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In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss the fundamental structural pieces that are in place for 2024 and some weaknesses in the overall structure.
Excerpt:
The Department of Defense for decades has had a list of essential industries. I was on the government's corona virus task force in 2020, and we needed to know what really, really had to be protected. My contribution was included the DOD website.
We were extremely dependent on China for our supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients. That didn't make sense to be 95% dependent on a single country. That's stupid. What happened during COVID proved exactly the point that you shouldn't be so dependent. China shut down exports of a lot of things, and especially in the medical area. There's no judgment there on China, its just that and any country could have done that.
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2024 is still going to be very volatile. The Houthi attack in the Red Sea isn't going to be solved in the next few weeks, so it walks into 2024. The situation with Israel is not going to be resolved that quickly either. We've got at a minimum, several months or could be years. So it's a very volatile year. Just looking at it from that perspective, no end in sight with Putin and the war in Ukraine. It’s also an election year and the politics in the U.S. are kind of ugly, but what do we tell people about the stock market during the election year? Buy stocks. They always did better in election years than almost any other years. So you've got these two forces against each other. I'm going to stay in the stocks and biting my nails and trying not to look at my 401k.
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When COVID hit us, we flopped like a rock. We gave Americans five and a half trillion dollars. That boosted the economy way above the trend line and we've been trying to get back to that trend line since. In in 2019 we were at $500 billion a month of retail sales. One would have said that by 2023 we're going to be maybe at $550 billion but we're currently at $600 billion a month and we've been there now for 18 months. Right now it's still nail biting territory for retails companies like Macy's, Walmart, Amazon or Target. The big fear is how do we converge back to the trend line? And if you do converge, is it by sales falling like a rock, recession or is it by over time where the difference begins to fade away?
Tune in to find out what grade Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve get from Prof. Kemmsies.
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A zero percent inflation rate may look elegant mathematically, but the mathematical model built represents no universe that any human being has ever lived in.
Back then, Milton Friedman, the Nobel laureate, said that he thinks inflation target should be two percent. He didn't say zero, and there were a lot of economic commentaries about this. If you target zero percent inflation, you're making it really, really hard for a new company to emerge and drive productivity growth through the economy and take us into the future.
In today's economy, two percent may not be the answer either. So how much inflation is good?
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Japan's recession during the 90's lasted over two decades and the stock market was flat for literally 20 plus years. It is considered one of the longest-running economic crises in recorded history. Mark Hall and Walter Kemmsies continue their discussion from previous episode regarding China's current debt situation and what are the parallels with Japan of the 90's.
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A recent article in the Savannah paper reported the partnership between Hyundai and Georgia Tech on hydrogen technology. Even though E.V. just got here, could they be headed out already? The question is… is today's E.V. the Betamax of yesterday?
Hyundai announced in Savannah their big presentation, they mentioned hydrogen four times and E.V. twice. Is that a sign of what’s to come?
A year ago, an interview given by Mr. Toyoda (CEO of Toyota Motor Co.) said he had very serious doubts about the E.V.s. He wasn't buying in. He felt that it was dangerous not to also invest in hydrogen.
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The threat or the worry over recession has been the theme or a sub-theme for the last year. At the same time the stock market has been on a run. If we're so worried about a recession, why does the stock market continue to climb?
A recession has been predicted now for the last 12 months and the economy seems to be sort of chugging along pretty well. But why would you be concerned? One is the yield curve has been inverted. When the yield curve inverts, inevitably there's a recession soon after. But when you look at the history of this indicator, you don't get the recession until the yield curve un-inverts but currently it’s still inverted.
China’s debt to GDP ration is 297%. Some of the increase in debt is because of the belt and road initiative. They lent money to a lot of countries to build infrastructure. That infrastructure hasn’t really paid off. China also has a lot of infrastructure that’s not being used in some of the poorest cantons. High speed rails, multiple airports that have been empty they finally just shut it down. On the flip side, China is also the single largest owner of U.S. Government debt and it is making everyone nervous.
In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss how circular economy works. The concept of recycling, renewables and repurposing can help increase profits. One case study on this podcast is Rivian Automotive. Their target for their products is net zero. Both on the front end and back end. Tune in to find out how it's being done.
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A stock broker said to another stock broker: "We need chaos to make money. When is flat and predictable, nobody trades. We don't make money. What we need is turbulence." In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss the $5 trillion stimulus spending during the pandemic, supply chain issues. Are we going back to the trend line?
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In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies continue their spirited discussion on biases. Sharing their personal experiences on how it affect business and personal decisions. "One in every ten people that looks at you, dislike you on sight for no know reason." Why is that? Tune in to find out. #malcolmgladwell #blink #savannah #savannahrealestate #savannahga #wsj
The Wall Street Journal wrote that, Ford electric vehicle owners will soon gain access to Tesla’s vast EV charging network, according to the CEOs of both companies. But Dr. Walter Kemmsies is still bias against electric vehicles. Mark Hall finds out why.
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In this episode Mark Hall and Walter Kemmsies discuss Security vs Prosperity, market based system vs command system. A small group of people making all the decisions, deciding what you watch, what you wear and where to live. The constant tension of open free market and monopolization of good and services. The discussion also delved into the topic of A.I. It's impact to an industry, advantages and concerns of this new technology.
In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss how Vertical Integration work. In order to compete with big retailers like Amazon, Walmart and Target, mid size retailers combine resources to apply vertical integration in order to save time and money and gain an edge. Tune in to learn how to go vertical.
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In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss the state of the ports in the US. In August 2020, Top 10 port authorities around the country started to handle over 2 million imported containers (TUE) a month. That trend continue to 25 consecutive months of peak season import volumes. The trucking industries and trains were stretched to the limit and unable to handle the volumes. Since August of 2022, we’re seeing a decline. Minus one percent in September. By March its down by 30 percent. Water’s been choppy but stabilization is on the horizon. A few months ago, for the first time in decades, New York and New Jersey surpass Long Beach volume. Tune in for more.
In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss the convergence of missteps and mistakes this past year and a half. The firing and hiring of workers in the US. The $5 trillion fiscal and monetary stimuli. Political instability with Russia invading Ukraine, US provoking China over Taiwan. China’s reaction to COVID. Despite the errors, we're starting to see light at the end of the tunnel.
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In this episode Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss how Margin Compression could feed into overall longterm profitability projection and what the stock market does.
The present 2M alliance, Maersk and MSC to terminate their partnership effective January 2025. What impact will occur to the shipping industry when that happens?
In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss Home Construction, affordable housing and infrastructure needed for the growing work force in the south east. Most communities want jobs and growth but the disconnect is in the will to provide the resources needed for it to happen.
Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss about labor force. Unemployment fell to 3.4 percent. 517,000 new hire was shocking. Do we have an immigration policy in place? What is the Philips curve? Is our population shrinking? Tune in for clarity.
In this episode, Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss about the misconception of a recession, GDP contraction in the first three quarters and possible expansion on the fourth. Inflation has already peaked in July of last year and wage growth peaked in March of 2022.
Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss the difference between World Trade and Globalization.
What to expect in 2023? Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss about Ukraine/Russia and China. Speculation if the Feds will cut rates in the first half of the year and what to expect on the second half.
The Feds' incredible interest rate error caused a recession in the consumer goods industry. Cost to ship a container from China dropped below the trend line. Seven months later, a transportation recession occurred. Food production within North America went down significantly. Grocery prices skyrocketed. Stay tuned for part two: Predictions for 2023.
Soccer is the great equalizer, regardless of your skin tone, religion or country of origin. At the end of the day it's about fellowship and camaraderie but what does it teaches us about life and business?
Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss about President Xi Jinping's Communist Party and the country's failed COVID policies, its near total control over its people and the desire to be the number one global superpower.
Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss the pros and cons of hydrogen fuel as an alternative to EV.
In the shipping industry Mearsk is exploring hydrogen as the primary fuel for their ships.
Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss the market share of shipping container volume between east coast and west coast and how the Staggers Rail Act of 1980 deregulated the American railroad industry.
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss the Fed's Interest Rate Hike and its ripple effects. Do we need a recession to curb inflation?
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss Megatrends like Cryptocurrencies, Electric Vehicles and the hype it caused in the stock market.
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG). Are we actually addressing the root issue or just plastering over it?
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss our reliance on computer technology in our daily lives and why the computer chip shortage.
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss the rise of Electric Vehicles, the environmental cost of lithium mining, availability of charging stations and limited driving range.
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss clogged ports, structural shifts and distribution network as well as solutions to supply chain management.
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss winners and losers of the COVID pandemic, Trend Line and Quadratic Equation, Strong Dollar, Cheap Europe, US Export woes, Global emerging markets in distress and debt payment for developing nations. Latin America shifting to the left.
In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss Winners and Losers of the COVID pandemic, Trend Line and Quadratic Equation.
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In today's episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss the possibility of recession in 2023.
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In today's episode, Dr. Walter and Mark Hall discuss the reliability and limitations of electrical vehicles.
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In today's episode, Dr. Walter and Mark Hall discuss reliability issues in China/Eastern Europe and speculate on trade moving to Latin America.
break their rules a little bit to discuss risk scenarios involving China and Russia that may impact the globe for years to come.
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Dr. Walter and Mark Hall break their rules a little bit to discuss risk scenarios involving China and Russia that may impact the globe for years to come.
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Dr. Walter and Mark Hall discuss the latest data on inflation and compare it to 2021. Dr. Walter also shares the currest status of international freight and his opinion on seasonal adjustment data.
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In this episode Dr. Walter and Mark Hall discuss E-Commerce trends. Are E-Commerce sales increasing or decreasing?
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Dr. Walter and Mark Hall discuss inflation and break down the current landscape and markers to look for. They discuss the difference in producers inflation vs consumer inflation and the effects of variable costs such as labor costs, transportation costs and basic commodity costs. Tune in as Dr. Walter shares his predictions and why he considers himself a fan of inflation.
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Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss the ongoing shipping crisis. With unprecedented consumer demand and incongruently low inventory levels it is driving up costs across the supply chain in everything from real estate prices to labor. The question is, will consumers be willing to bear the burden of the necessary price increases?
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Evergrande... How fragile is the Chinese Economy? Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall break down policy errors that contributed to the current situation and what to look for as China tries to unwind Evergrande. Aside from the direct real estate impact in China, the ripple effect will likely have consequences in the commodities market, freight indexes, and others, depending on how it is unravelled and the speed at which it happens.
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Mark and Walter talk industrial real estate. Vacancy rates are hovering around 1% mainly driven by the boom in e-commerce. $1 of e-commerce sales requires more industrial space than an equivalent $1 spent at a brick and mortar. Dr. Walter shares his projections on both demand and inventory and the importance Gateway leaders working together.
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Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall talk again about the ongoing shipping crisis. With a mad rush to get goods in to meet the surge in pent up demand, is now the time to hedge your bets and be a contrarian?
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In the first episode of Season 2, Mark and Walter discuss details of the Infrastructure Bill. Walter also unpacks how we define infrastructure based on three categories: physical infrastructure, social infrastructure and conventions.
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In the last installment of Season 1 Mark and Walter discuss inflation and the framework for understanding FED decisions. Dr. Walter breaks down GDP, money supply, growth rates, velocity and productivity.
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Bitcoin is good. Dr. Walter and Mark decode cryptocurrency. It answers the big three questions: Is it a store of value? Is it commonly acceptable? And is it transportable?
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In episode 17, Mark and Walter talk manufacturing mega trends and the desire to reduce the carbon footprint while adding to the bottom line.
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Frick and Frack discuss infrastructure spending and the impact on economic growth in Episode 16.
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Did you know that when the Apollo mission went to the moon, they had less technology on board than we have in a handheld phone right now?...Does that make it harder or easiest to believe we're talking about a Commercial Computer being developed that's 10,000x faster than the fastest Commercial Computer right now?? The future is happening today. Check out this episode as Walter and Mark discuss more on this topic.
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It seems like we're (hopefully) getting out of the pandemic ... so what will be our new normal? Walter and Mark discuss what new "workarounds" will stay and which will go in Episode 14.
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An article in the WSJ recently talked about inflation being at 4% right now, is that a tipping point for the stock market? Mark and Walter discuss this further in Episode 13.
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Mark and Walter discuss the huge increase in construction and commodity prices. When will these prices pull back?
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Mark and Walter discuss carbon credits
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Mark and Walter discuss the economy and why items are so delayed in delivery.
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Mark and Walter discuss electrical vehicles and their carbon footprint. What are L3 and L5 cars? Will the country actually be comfortable with cars driving themselves in 10 years? What makes AEVs better than regular cars?
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Mark and Walter discuss what a fragile system the supply chain.
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Walter and Mark discuss the cargo ship that was stuck in the Suez Canal in March 2021. It brought up the question of how can the infrastructure of ports keep up with these large ships?
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Mark and Walter discuss online retail sales. The US currently has 12% online retail and is projected to double that by the year 2030. What do you think of this projection?
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Walter and Mark continue the discussion of the economy and the discrepancy of goods.
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Mark and Walter discuss the history of recession cycles and why does an oversupply of goods cause recessions.
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Mark Hall and Dr. Kemmsies dive deeper into 5G. What industries will benefit the most from the roll-out of 5G? Will robots create a workforce that results in the haves and have nots? And… did Walter really start coding AI in the 1980s??
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Mark Hall and Dr. Walter Kemmsies discuss 5G. What does it mean for businesses? How will it filter throughout the economy?
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In our first episode, Dr. Walter Kemmsies and Mark Hall discuss the 2020 drop in GDP. Was there a reason for this recession? Was it really a recession? Are we back to where we started before COVID-19?
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