FICC Focus: Recent Episodes
Bloomberg Intelligence
FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities, and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.
Credit markets saw stupendous growth in socially responsible and green bonds from a variety of credits and many sustainability and ESG specialized funds and investment vehicles have taken off in the past four years. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Mitch Reznick, Head of Sustainable Fixed Income at Federated Hermes Limited, discuss the shades of sustainable bond and fund types: Sustainability, ESG, SRI, Green, GSS among others and differentiate them and address their performance and alpha vs. mainstream credit. They also discuss flows into such funds and supply of these securities in comparison to mainstream. Lastly, they discuss the various relevant global regulations, including stewardship.
Money has been leaking out of municipal mutual funds this year, but the same can’t be said for alternative products, such as exchange traded funds, though there’s been some recent cooling, especially in separately managed account platforms, an area we’ve spent much time exploring this year on Masters of the Muniverse. In this episode of the podcast, Andrew Clinton, CEO and founder of Clinton Investment Management, sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano for an in-depth discussion about the muni market, recession expectations, his feelings post-Jackson Hole and the outlook for 4Q.
The keys to evaluating structured credit are “the value of the assets, the value of the structure and the value of the option,” according to Brett Jefferson, founder, president and co-CIO of Hildene Capital, with $14 billion in assets under management. Jefferson and co-CIO Dushyant Mehra join Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s director of FICC research, and Sam Geier, senior credit strategy associate, on this Credit Crunch episode, part of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion on the value in TruPs, identifying the fulcrum in CLOs, mortgage-backed products and the benefits of diversification.
The Treasury market selloff throughout August was in part due to increased issuance, but largely driven by the market repricing the future path of monetary policy, TD Securities USA’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Gennadiy Goldberg says on this Macro Matters podcast episode hosted by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey. Goldberg discusses his views on the Treasury market, the future of global monetary-policy actions and investor expectations for the economy. In this week’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Rate Strategy associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the BI Rates team’s recent research note, which highlighted what may come next for technical yield levels.
Credit markets have had a correction in the past month, across the board. It takes us to an interesting juncture where we ask if the correction has longer to go or is largely done, and which asset classes stand to benefit most in its aftermath. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Boris Okuliar, Co-Head of Global Liquid Credit at Ares Management, discuss the situation in global credit and the challenges of directional view after this correction. They discuss rates, yields, credit spreads and supply in detail. There's a particular focus on leveraged loans, high yield bonds, the impact of the CLO market and private lending.
In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G10 FX Strategist and Maeva Cousin, senior euro area economist at Bloomberg Economics, look into the euro and US near-term growth dynamics and how these may shape BI's euro-dollar outlook into year-end. We also touch on the euro-inflation outlook and European Central Bank's rate prospects for 2023 and 2024. For now, our positive euro-dollar relative growth differential outlook holds, but recent euro data have underwhelmed while US data have tended to overwhelm. The euro price action has been resilient thus far, though our strategists conclude this is no time for complacency.
Latin America central banks continue to focus on inflation, yet fiscal deficits remain elevated and growth is in decline. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast episode, Fernando Losada, Managing Director and Head of Latin America Sovereign Research at Oppenheimer, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on Latin American debt markets, with a focus on Central America and the Caribbean. From tourist inflows and remittances to oil imports and climate change, we discuss the economic and fundamental risks that have the potential to affect fixed-income valuations.
Spreads of mortgage-backed securities may remain wide, though net and gross supply could remain depressed given interest rate and housing market dynamics, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief MBS Strategist Erica Adelberg says. Adelberg joins Macro Matters podcast host and BI’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to share her view on relative value within the mortgage markets, compare MBS to corporate bonds and discuss how recent bank regulations may affect mortgage demand. You can access more of Adelberg’s research on the BI Mortgages Dashboard by typing {BI MORTN }.
The red-hot credit rally leaves debt markets vulnerable ahead of historically-worst months, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku say on this month’s edition of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. Guest Ralph Brubaker, the James H.M. Sprayregen Professor of Law at the University of Illinois College of Law, joins Balluku for an in-depth feature interview on corporate tortfeasors’ persistent efforts to exploit Chapter 11 protections (6:50). Hebert, Balluku and Brendel wrap up the episode with the latest developments for Johnson & Johnson, Cineworld, Crypto and Diamond Sports (50:20). Related research: Ralph Brubaker, The Texas Two-Step and Mandatory Non-Opt-Out Settlement Powers (July 2022) Amici Curiae Brief of Bankruptcy Law Professors Ralph Brubaker, George W. Kuney, and Bruce A. Markell, In re Purdue Pharma (Mar. 2022)
The Bank of England stepped down the pace of tightening as it closes in on the peak but isn't quite yet done and remains highly data dependent. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Bloomberg Senior UK Economist.
The re-risking with the market being chased higher has crushed equity volatility while the skew in rates at the back of the curve is toward higher yields. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, Founder of Quadratic Capital Management. Discussion points include key themes from the rates and equity volatility markets.
Find out more about Quadratic Capital Management here: http://www.ivoletf.com
The Federal Reserve may remain on hold for the rest of the year as inflation should moderate, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics Anna Wong says on this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. Wong joins host Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss her view on the economy and future Fed policy. Jersey mentions some investors are concerned about a reacceleration of inflation, to which Wong handicaps the possibility, but notes even if inflation does climb a bit again, the Fed might not have to hike rates further. In this week’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Strategy Associate William Hoffman asks Jersey about his deficit and Treasury issuance forecast. Jersey notes additional Treasury coupon issuance may be announced at next week’s Treasury Refunding announcement.
Asset-based finance has moved nearer center stage in the fast growing private credit market, competing with corporate direct lending for attention. Castlelake’s Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer Evan Carruthers joins hosts Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s director of FICC research, and Sam Geier, senior credit strategy associate, on this Credit Crunch podcast episode to talk about the current landscape and opportunity amid uncertainty. Turbulence in aviation finance and innovation in consumer, as well as the small and medium enterprise space are among topics discussed.
Green shoots are forming in emerging market debt as growth slows, inflation eases and the geopolitical climate turns more market friendly. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Ilke Pienaar, Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income Sovereign Research at Pinebridge Investments, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her mid-year outlook on EM credit. She discusses the firm's key convictions across EM, with Asia high yield exhibiting improved fundamentals and attractive valuations.
BI global credit strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss how credit markets are "melting up" with equities, but that it may be fleeting. Noel and Phil also have an in-depth feature interview with John Pavelski, co-head of North America for the Carlyle Credit Opportunities Fund, on the possibilities created as the private credit market weathers a distressed cycle (10:30). Finally, Negisa, Noel and Phil discuss the latest developments in crypto bankruptcies, Audacy, Diamond Sports and J&J (1:04:30).
The landscape for municipal asset management has been changing over the past year, and there’s been lower beta options such as exchange traded funds and separately managed accounts. For those looking to expand or break into this space, scaling the business is the single largest pain point. Investortools’ Senior Vice President James Morris joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast to discuss this challenge and highlight an off-the-shelf solution.
The Fed's nearing rate peak and evidence of a turning US economy should revive the bearish view of the US dollar in 2H. In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G10 FX strategist, examines the outlook for the US and global economies and the implications for currencies with Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management. In particular, Solita and Audrey acknowledge that beyond a structurally dollar-negative case that's not going away, a shifting US cyclical and inflation narrative and near Fed rate peak are giving dollar bears another chance in 2H, with $1.15 euro-dollar and 0.85 dollar-Swiss feasible into 2H and beyond.
European high yield has had just two defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control after a positive 1H for returns. Will 3Q sustain the 1H gains and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to hear Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence discuss the results of the 3Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.
They discuss our 3Q23 survey publication, in detail, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sectors in detail.
The Treasury yield curve may remain inverted for quite a while, but bull steepening could begin as the Federal Reserve finished its interest rate hikes, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist says in this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Jersey provides his short- and longer-term view of the rate markets, mentioning how the real federal funds rate may peak at about 2.5% if consensus inflation estimates and market pricing are realized. Jersey is also joined by US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman to discuss the rebuild of the Treasury General Account (the government’s checking account held at the Fed), and how T-bill issuance has thus far been primarily funded by lower use of the Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement facility. They also talk about how Fed liabilities move around during the TGA rebuild, and Jersey gives his expectation of when the Fed runoff might end due to bank reserves reaching their “tipping point.”
After central banks gathered in Portugal at the ECB Forum earlier this week, a turn in European inflation and a strong 1Q GDP revision in the US caused a sell off in developed market sovereign debt. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by his European counterpart Huw Worthington on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Huw gives his outlook for inflation and central bank policy actions in Europe and the UK, while Jersey highlights his shift in view that the Federal Reserve may hike further. In this episode’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the Fed’s bank stress tests and how they may be affecting markets. Jersey gives a summary of the tests and his view that bank compliance has depressed risk taking and therefore liquidity.
Structured credit markets have evolved into a multi-trillion dollar asset class, one that we dive into in the latest episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast series. Waterfall Asset Management’s Managing Partner and Cofounder Jack Ross, one of the pioneers in asset-based securities, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Director of FICC Research Noel Hebert and Senior Credit Strategy Associate Sam Geier for an in-depth discussion about the transformation of the asset class over Ross’ storied career, areas of concern in commercial real estate and consumer spending, as well as how the burgeoning private credit space is influencing the investment landscape.
This recorded discussion is not intended to be and does not constitute an offer of Waterfall Asset Management, LLC’s (“Waterfall”) investment advisory services. The information, statements, commentary, views, and opinions (collectively, the “Commentary”) provided in this discussion are general in nature, may reflect the perspective of the individual rather than Waterfall and the Commentary is not intended to be and should not be construed as the provision of investment advice by Waterfall, to that listener or generally, and do not result in any listener being considered a client or customer of Waterfall. Any discussion of the past performance of any investment, sector, or market is not indicative of any future results. Further, the Commentary is as of the date of recording and may not be current at the time that listener hears the discussion. Waterfall does not undertake any obligation whatsoever to provide any form of update, amendment, change or correction to the Commentary.
The Bank of England remains highly data-dependent, re-accelerating to a 50-bp hike "at this particular meeting" given the upside inflation surprises. The wide difference between actual inflation data releases vs. consensus keeps volatility elevated at the front end of the yield curve. The flattening of the curve reflects the risk to growth and increased pricing of cuts. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist.
An improving inflation outlook alongside weaker cross-asset volatility and more moderate global growth is contributing to the bullish narrative in EM local government debt. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Phoenix Kalen, Head of Emerging Market Research at Societe Generale, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her mid-year outlook on EM local currencies and debt. She discusses the firm's key EM trading themes, and highlights various structural, idiosyncratic and tactical opportunities.
The Federal Reserve may not hike the additional 50 bps shown in the infamous “Dot Plot” at the June monetary policy meeting, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief US Economist Anna Wong remarks. She joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to recap the FOMC meeting and discuss her views for the future. Wong still expects a mild recession in 2H, thinks the Fed will maintain interest rates near the peak and that balance-sheet reduction will continue into next year. She also believes Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference was relatively neutral, though the dot plot was hawkish.
The stage is set for municipals to look better vs. other fixed income in 2023-2024. Though fund flows remain a concern, the asset class’ ability to provide tax-exempt income exceeding inflation remains a key feature, especially if recessionary pressures increase. Parametric’s Nisha Patel joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse FICC Focus podcast to discuss the advantages of technology-driven systematic solutions and some of the strategies used to maximize returns. Patel also shares how not all ladder strategies need to be passive.
Credit markets have a dour seasonal outlook and piecemeal restructurings are flailing. BI Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel, and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss these issues and more on the June edition of the State of Distressed Debt Podcast. Guest Matthew Cantor, Head of Legal Strategies and Special Situations of Pretium Partners, shares his views on litigation finance, distressed banks and the distressed cycle (8:12). Also of note: the latest developments in Serta, Incora, FTX, Diamond Sports, J&J and Cineworld (46:05).
European credit markets have shifted since the banking crisis and the rally that followed, especially the shrinkage in junk. It's always interesting to hear views from across regions and this time we head to sunny France for some Gallic finesse in credit portfolio management.
In the 11th episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, and Benoit Soler, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Credit at Keren Finance, discuss the situation in European credit and the specific challenges of ESG portfolio management with new regulations and the failure of CDS to "deliver" when expected.
Ever-changing drivers and low FX conviction views have been consistent with a $1.06-$1.10 euro-dollar in recent months, but a break of $1.10 toward $1.15 and higher remains feasible later this year. In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, reflects on the euro-dollar's outlook as we contemplate 2H and after a very challenging 1H for bullish views. Childe-Freeman believes the positive narrative holds into 2H, with the European Central Bank's and Fed's monetary-cycle lags, a possible adjustment to more-supportive euro-US economic surprises and the US debt-ceiling deal are likely to help the view. Cyclical uncertainty in China is an unwelcome negative consideration, but it's arguably partly priced in. Click the exhibit to hear the podcast.
On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Amanda Albright are joined by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Boards; President and CEO, Mark Kim. This edition comes at a time when municipal fixed income is feeling pressure from evolutionary forces. In fact, one of the best analogies we can give, is that munis are the John Dutton of fixed income Yellow Stone ranch, and the asset class is hell bent on resisting any sort of change or threats. However, if we take a step back and look across the landscape of investing, we could all agree that more change and transparency is never a bad thing.
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, BE's Senior UK Economist. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds and the outlook for the economy.
“We are certainly not talking about six or seven percent [federal funds target rate, but]... modestly above 5%,” Goldman Sachs Chief Interest Rate Strategist Praveen Korapaty says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast. In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Korapaty to discuss his team’s outlook for the Federal Reserve policy action and Treasury yields for 2023. Korapaty discusses his view that 10-year yields may climb above the recent highs and his view that interest rate cuts won’t come early. Jersey and Korapaty also discuss the transition from Libor to the secured overnight financing rate.
FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Kaushik Rudra, Managing Director & Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Standard Chartered Bank. Rudra shares his outlook for emerging market fixed income, as falling US treasury yields and a weaker dollar fuel the technical rally in risk assets. China remains in focus following recent steps by Beijing to alleviate pressure on the domestic economy, and property market in particular.
In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, along with chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu, reflect on the recent euro revival and on how a sustainable euro-dollar recovery could unfold in the months and quarters to come.
“Powell did a masterful job in neutralizing the market rally from [after the Federal Reserve] put out its statement. I think Powell did what he needed to in order to ensure they could slow the pace of rate hikes, while moving the terminal rate higher,” Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast. In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Wong to discuss the aftermath of the November Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Wong notes her view that the market is pricing for her current expectation of rate hikes. Jersey and Wong then discuss how long the Fed may keep the federal funds rate at its peak, how the future economic situation may develop, and what the Fed’s reaction function could be. Wong then produces an impromptu Fun Fed Fact segment explaining how the “dual mandate” developed in the late 1970s.
With distressed supply settling back following a test of June’s highs, Bloomberg Intelligence expects it may consolidate a bit between $100-$150 billion as seasonal trends turn supportive in December, and believes this distressed supply rise will continue, however, more likely in drawn out and steady fashion rather than quick and volatile. FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss the leisurely pace of this distressed cycle and when it may pick up. Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku has an in-depth feature interview with Melissa B. Jacoby, Professor of Law at UNC School of Law (7:50) and Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the panel to share thoughts on distressed credits in the cinema and crypto spaces, as well as Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Revlon and Incora (42:40).
Hybrids have significantly underperformed in 2022 and now trade wider than their high yield brethren, a trend that could extend into 2023. Private credit continues to grow assets and influence, yet spreads trail far behind their similar named “parent” companies. Bloomberg Intelligence’s global analysis also suggests changes in discount rates could be a big benefit for pension liabilities. This month’s podcast highlights the credit implications for BT, Telefonica, Boeing, Blackstone, KKR and other business-development companies. In this Credit Chat edition, European TMT analyst Aidan Cheslin, US Financials analyst David Havens and US Industrials analyst Matthew Geudtner join Robert Schiffman to discuss declining hybrid valuations, the growth of the private credit industry and the impact of rising rates on pension underfunding.
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Professor Gregory Besharov at the University of Oxford. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds, crypto and the housing market.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Rohit Goel, Director of Macro Research at Breakout Capital. Goel shares his outlook for EM currencies, as persistent dollar strength fuels the call for coordinated FX intervention. China remains the elephant in the room, and Goel shares his views following this month's Communist Party Congress.
“There is significant interest rate risk in TIPS in ETFs and Mutual Funds because they can’t necessarily get enough leverage to do a break-even trade,” Winshore Capital Partners Portfolio Manager Robert Tzucker tells Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Tzucker to discuss Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and other inflation linked instruments. Tzucker discusses how TIPS work, market liquidity and that he believes that TIPS are the market expectation of inflation, but the market sometimes gets it wrong. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews the October Bank of Canada and European Central Bank meetings that were relatively dovish to expectations. Jersey then answers the question of how this week’s central bank decisions might affect near-term Federal Reserve announcements.
"Who would have thought LDI would be in the popular press in my whole career?" says David Eichhorn, CEO of NISA Investment Advisors on this edition of the FICC Focus Podcast.
In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Eichhorn joins BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss Liability Driven Investments (LDI), particularly US Defined Benefit pension plan, which he helps manage. Eichhorn discusses how LDI investments differ from other types of plans, how his firm manages risk, and his view for the future of the pension industry. During a discussion about if US pensions could contribute to a market move similar to what occurred in the UK in the recent past, Eichhorn notes that US plans take much less interest risk and manager derivative collateral much differently than their cousins across the pond. The show's Fun Fed Fact segment takes a bit of a turn when BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos and Jersey discuss the Treasury Refunding dealer questions about potential Treasury buybacks and TIPS issuance.
Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income at Abrdn Plc, talks about his outlook for state and local debt after a rough 2022.
Global banks are much better positioned from a capital and liquidity perspective than they were heading into the 2008 financial crisis, yet pockets of concern are beginning to percolate. Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis suggests solid credit quality is supported by considerable liquidity, but potential funding needs for U.S. Bancorp, PNC Financial, Truist and Mitsubishi UFJ may create bond-pricing anomalies, while Credit Suisse’s ultimate fate is a major question mark. In this Credit Chat edition, Senior US, European and Asia Bank Analysts Arnold Kakuda, Jeroen Julius and Pri de Silva join Robert Schiffman, to share their views on bank balance-sheet flexibility, rising funding needs and increased volatility of bond and credit-default swap prices.
In our latest FX Moment Podcast, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, along with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the 4Q FX Outlook, with the US dollar bullish drivers arguably priced in and the currency looking stretched and overvalued, but a catalyst for a turnaround has yet to be identified.
Our FX Strategists also touch on the theme of FX interventions, which may become more frequent in some cases, but when unilateral in nature, aren't likely to sustainably reverse the trend.
Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss September’s rise in distressed supply amid a dearth of risk appetite. Included is an in-depth feature interview with Todd Lemkin, Chief Investment Officer of Canyon Partners (6:15). BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon join the panel to share thoughts on Endo International, Celsius Network, Voyager Digital, Cineworld, Bed, Bath & Beyond, JUUL, and Envision Healthcare (1:07:15).
Amanda Albright and Eric Kazatsky are joined by Henry Cisneros, Chairman of American Triple I Partners, to talk about US infrastructure and why Cisneros sees a 'golden' era ahead.
In this special UK edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by BE's Chief European Economist, Jamie Rush. They discuss the market turmoil and economic outlook in the aftermath of the UK mini-budget.
In our sixth FX Moment Podcast, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, along with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the topic of currency crisis and whether this applies to the current FX market environment. Our FX Strategists touch on the increasingly debated sterling crisis theme and look back into past currency crisis situations for more insights on the current context.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Mr. Caesar Maasry, Managing Director & Head of EM Cross-Asset Research at Goldman Sachs. Maasry shares his outlook for emerging market currencies, as relentless dollar strength is fueling comparisons to the early 1980s when coordinated central bank intervention was required to stem the pain.
Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright are joined by Senior Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas to discuss the rise of municipal ETFs, current pricing wars and predictions for the Philadelphia Eagles 2022-23 season.
“The drivers of secular stagnation were... Technology, demographics, and globalization... They may have changed a little bit, but not that much,” Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of the Lafayette College Endowment tells Bloomberg Intelligence, noting his view that secular stagnation will return. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Memani joins BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the differences between being a sell side analyst, mutual fund manager and managing an endowment. Jersey asks about the process of analysis and asset-class selection within an endowment and alpha generation. Memani also gives his outlook for the economy longer term, including his view that secular stagnation, an environment of low inflation and low real growth, will return as the Federal Reserve finishes fighting inflation. BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos joins for the podcast’s Fun Fed Facts segment. He talks about the Fed’s updated “dot plot” and Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that sales of securities isn’t imminent.
In this third edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker is joined by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu and Partner at Dominice, Pierre de Saab, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape.
It’s been a surprisingly calm summer for credit, but a rocky fall may be on tap, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss what credit looked like in the summer and what could potentially happen in the fall. They are joined by Trey Parker, Sycamore Tree Capital Partners Co-founder & Chief Investment Officer, for an in-depth feature interview. (6:42) BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon also share thoughts on Revlon, 3M, Celsius Network, Cineworld and Bed, Bath, and Beyond. (42:50)
Rising rates and recessionary fears are growing, yet credit across continents and sectors may be well positioned for additional supply and demand headwinds. Analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence suggests strong credit profiles, access to low cost capital and considerable financial flexibility are supportive of reduced volatility for Walmart, Home Depot, Maersk, CMA CGM, DBS Group and Oversea-Chinese Banking, even as global recessionary risks rise.
High mortgage rates are have a negative effect on Agency mortgage-back securities performance relative to Treasuries, and the Fed's quantitative tightening may make it worse due to changes in sector allocations in the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Chief Agency Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg and BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos who discuss the mortgage market, Canadian interest rates, and how central bank balance sheet runoff could affect the relative returns of several asset classes.
FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Win Thin, Senior Vice President & Global Head of Market Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman. Thin shares his outlook for emerging market currencies, as the stronger greenback is suppressing non-dollar asset class returns, causing the market value of benchmark-eligible debt to decline by nearly 6% in the last month alone.
Political partisanship in Congress will remain wide, which could cause government shutdowns and another debt-ceiling crisis in late 2023, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Government Analyst Nathan Dean as the two discuss the upcoming midterm congressional elections, the federal budget continuing resolution and how political partisanship could affect markets. Dean also talks about scenarios if President Joe Biden doesn’t run for reelection. The US Rates Strategy team recently highlighted increased political partisanship in the Senate. In today’s Fun Fed Fact segment, BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos reviews the previous Jackson Hole address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Jersey and Manolatos discuss what Powell might highlight in his Aug. 26 speech.
In our fifth FX Moment edition, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman discusses China's current cyclical conundrum, the PBOC outlook and currency implications with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu. While the weakening Chinese growth dynamics leave the yuan exposed near-term, it does not alter Stephen's more constructive long-term outlook for the Chinese currency.
A 2H recovery may not be the rising tide that lifts all boats as recession, inflation and remaining Covid-19-lockdown risks disproportionately have a negative impact across pockets of health care providers, Macau gaming operations and European consumer and beverage debt issuers. Our global Bloomberg Intelligence team’s analysis suggests competitive pressures may further push Weight Watchers spreads wider, while inflation affects margins for Carrefour and Tesco, and Macau’s casino recovery remains slow. In this Credit Chat edition, Louise Parker, BI European consumer analyst, Cecilia Chan, BI Asia gaming and tech analyst and Mike Holland, BI health care analyst join Robert Schiffman, BI senior credit analyst, to share their views on rising food and beverage prices, China’s gaming challenges and why historically defensive health care credits are showing signs of distress.
The financial services industry has been challenged for years with firms having to navigate the global pandemic and remote work, all while dealing with legacy battles such as fee compression, customer retention and talent recruitment. To that last point, starting a new role during the pandemic is a difficult task for some. Starting a new role as CEO is even more challenging.
On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Amanda Albright are joined by the new Chief Executive Officer of Mesirow, Natalie Brown.
If the market prices out Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2023, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey thinks that could be enough for the Treasury yield curve to invert more than it has in 40 years. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, host Jersey is joined by Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist. Manolatos reviews some details of the consumer price report, including how sticker, lower volatility sectors continue to contribute 3% (more than half) to core CPI - and more worrying is that medium volatility sector prices continue to accelerate. Jersey discusses his views for the Treasury market, including a core view that the yield curve could invert even more. In today’s Fun Fed Fact segment, Manolotos highlights that the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policy making group, has all seats filled for the first time since July 2013. Jersey notes that given the disparate ideologies on the FOMC, a member of the board of governors may dissent in coming quarters.
Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discusses with BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel the first up month for distressed in 2022. Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the call to present the interview she and Brendel conducted with Bill Derrough, Moelis & Company's Global Co-Head of the Capital Structure Advisory (6:07). BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku joins the panel to share her thoughts on Revlon as well as 3M's and Johnson & Johnson's recent mass tort Chapter 11 cases. (1:07:14). Wrapping up the call is a discussion on the abrupt collision between Crypto and Chapter 11.
If Bloomberg Economics is right at the Federal Reserve hikes to 5%, the two-year Treasury yield should be near 4% and the Treasury yield curve would be more inverted, notes Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist. Wong discusses why she thinks the Federal Reserve wasn’t as dovish as the market thought, and why additional interest rate hikes may be in the cards even after a soft 2Q GDP print. She details the BE version of the Taylor Rule and her belief that it’s superior to more traditional models. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos quips that the Fed’s statement is now 268 words, but could get somewhat shorter over time. Jersey jests that the statement length and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet have been broadly correlated. The strategists briefly discuss the statement as a communications tool in different regimes.
In this second edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker and Co-Head of Derivatives Strategy at Susquehanna International Group, Chris Murphy, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape of the bond market to S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
In this Credit Chat edition, Joel Levington, Global Head of Credit Research, Daniel Fan, Senior China Real Estate Analyst and Pri De Silva, Senior Asia Financial Institutions Analyst join Robert Schiffman to share their views on downgrade recession risk for US industrials, the impact of potential “boycotts” on China property value and limited financial risk for the Chinese banking system. A slowdown in growth is unlikely to affect China’s banking system, avoiding a 2008-like crisis, yet the country’s real estate sector may become further depressed. In contrast, despite over $150 billion of industrial bonds at risk of downgrade, recession fears in the US could be overblown. Following GE’s decision to separate in multiple stand-alone entities, 3M is following suit, with potentially Danaher not far behind, scenarios that may be beneficial for all parts of the capital structure.
In this edition of Masters of the Muniverse Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright are joined by New York State Comptroller, Thomas Dinapoli. We cover such topics as the recovery of the State and New York City from the worst of the pandemic, tackling pension returns in a volatile environment, challenges ahead for State finances and the debate over best baseball teams.
In our fourth FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the topic of FX valuation, with particular interest on whether the U.S. Dollar may be overvalued. Our FX Strategists look into their updated BEER, fair value model and assess whether the dollar may be overvalued vs its G10 peers.
The yield curves in the US and Canadian dollar could invert more than any cycle since the early 1980s and the German government curve might not invert at all, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Strategists. In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Huw Worthington, BI Chief European Rates Strategist and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist to talk about current inflation, the central bank and the differences and similarities between recent and coming interest rate moves. Angelo kicks off the podcast reviewing Canada’s 1% interest rate increase on July 13 and his view for additional hikes. Huw discusses why the ECB has been somewhat behind other central banks in raising policy rates. As the show was being recorded, the euro-dollar exchange rate moved through parity to 0.9966 generating a conversation about currencies to end the show
In this Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower and Bloomberg ESG Index head Chris Hackel. Sassower and Jersey discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Don't Sleep on 60-40 as Fixed Income Return Forecasts Rebound. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Sassower notes that $9 trillion of market cap has been destroyed during the past year's selloff. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns. Hackel discusses shifts in client interest for ESG index product, and notes some of the trends in that asset growth for ESG product, particularly after the explosion of equity ESG funds.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Cate Ambrose, Chief Executive Officer of the Global Private Capital Association. Ambrose shares her outlook for EM private equity, with a focus on the sectors, countries and opportunities capturing interest from institutional investors across the globe.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel, and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss the ongoing surge in distressed debt and how long it may last; Marathon Asset Management's Bruce Richards shares his distressed market views with Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon (6:30); Phil, Noel, and Eliza are then joined by BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku, who details material risks to Citibank's potential bankruptcy claims against Revlon and TPC Group noteholders' priority spat.
SPECIAL EPISODE | Risk of a U.S. recession is growing more likely, with the potential to impact valuations across EM asset classes. As Fed tightening, China lock-downs and the war in Ukraine collide, who is best positioned and why? How has the risk of contagion evolved across EM and how do you expect policy makers to respond? Join industry leaders from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Brown Brothers Harriman as we explore the key trends that are reshaping the global investment landscape.
SPECIAL EPISODE | After nearly four decades of dormant inflation, EM economies must now contend with rising price pressures and the possibility that they may take longer to dissipate than initially anticipated. What is the impact of higher interest rates on market structure and liquidity? Is a more persistent inflationary impulse causing creditors to adjust their investment timelines? Join industry experts from Pimco, Lazard, Cerberus, Itau and Swiss Re as we explore the key trends that are reshaping the global investment landscape.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassoweris joined by Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Latin America fixed income & FX strategy at Bank of America. Irigoyen shares his outlook for the region in the wake of higher inflation, slower growth and the broader shift toward populism.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Latin America fixed income & FX strategy at Bank of America. Irigoyen shares his outlook for the region in the wake of higher inflation, slower growth and the broader shift toward populism.
Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss new developments at the intersection of the sleepy municipal bond market and blockchain technologies. This week we are joined by Tammie Arnold and Stephen Winterstein from Alpha Ledger.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Noel Hebert, BI Chief US Credit Strategist, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist. Jersey shares his thoughts on the June FOMC meeting, which he calls a “dovish 75-basis point hike” as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that interest rate increases of that magnitude wouldn’t be common, and said he expects the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to over 4%. Hebert then discusses the fundamentals, technicals and valuation of the investment grade and high yield corporate bond markets. He notes a shift in investor preference toward floating rate loans and the challenges some companies may have as rate increases bump up interest expense. Hebert also reviews some sectors he’s concerned with, and others which may outperform as the Fed tightens monetary policy. In this episode’s Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos reviews the Fed’s summary of economic projections and the dot plot, noting how, if the high dot for year-end is realized, there would need to be at least one additional 75-bp move before year-end. LIVE Event Coming UpFed's Powell Remarks at Inaugural Conference on Int'l Role of US Dollar06/17 13:35 Set Reminder | LIVE » Related tickers:
In this first edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker is joined by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu and Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Artemis Capital Advisers, Christopher Cole, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape.
In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by BI credit analysts Mike Campellone and David Havens to discuss the increasing risks in the retail and financial services sectors on inventory and supply chain issues, inflation, rising rates and the drop in crypto valuations.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI's bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss why we believe a new distressed debt surge is starting, developments and ramifications of J&J's Talc subsidiary's strategic Chapter 11 filing, reports of Revlon debt restructuring talks, Talen Energy and TPC Group.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Ben Emons, Managing Director of Global Macro Strategy at Medley Global Advisors, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist.Emons discusses his views on the commodity, equity and fixed income markets, including how energy prices affect some equity sector spending patterns and how input costs are impacting earnings. Additional downside in stocks is possible, he notes. Jersey and Emons then discuss Federal Reserve monetary policy and the possible terminal rate for the federal funds target rate. In this episode's Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos' reviews the Fed's profit remittances to the Treasury Department and how they could develop over time. Jersey notes that the lack of remittances may mean little to Treasury supply as budget deficits continue to improve.
In our Second FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on recent developments in the U.S. dollar and explore the theme of currency peg, with a focus on the HKD. Our FX Strategists discuss the recent dollar price action, with a focus on what triggered the pull-back and on whether it can be a sustained pull-back.
In this Credit Chat edition, BI Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman is joined by Van Hesser, Senior Managing Director and Chief Strategist at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, to discuss the transition from stimulus-fueled super growth back to normal and its impact on high grade and high yield credit spread direction and volatility.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI Mortgage Strategist, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist. Adelberg discusses how the agency mortgage-backed securities differs in structure from other fixed income asset classes and reviews how the entire market structure has shifted amid climbing rates. She notes the Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff and the possibility of sales of MBS and why that may be more challenging than some think. Jersey shares his view that sales in 2022 are unlikely. The call ends with the Fun Fed Facts segment and Manolatos' views on the length of the Fed's recent statements.
Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright discuss the worst start on record for municipal bonds and explore the key differences of active vs passive management for tax-exempts. They are joined by David Hammer Head of Municipal Bond Portfolio Management at PIMCO.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments. Topics include why we expect a new distressed debt surge may be upon us, views from the recent Milken conference, GWG Holdings' difficult bankruptcy, Revlon's turnaround and Talen's liquidity struggles.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist. Wong and Jersey discuss the Federal Reserve's May 4th meeting which Chairman Jerome Powell squashed the possibility of a 75 basis point interest rate increase in June, which left the markets thinking the meeting was hawkish. Jersey notes he did not hear it that way, while Wong notes she expects two more 50 basis point increases, followed by a string of 25 basis point hikes. Wong goes over the hawkish and dovish scenarios for the the policy rate, and discuss the risk of recession in 2024 after the Fed is finished raising rates. The BI US Rates meeting reaction can be found here; while the BE reaction is available here.
FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In our first FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on recent developments in the euro and the yuan. Our FX Strategists discuss the recent euro price action, with a focus on the lack of revival after the re-election of pro-European French President Emmanuel Macron, as the focus remains on overwhelmingly bearish international drivers. Stephen touches on the recent yuan underperformance and implications for our longer-term views on the Chinese currency.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Associate Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey previews his views for the May 4th FOMC meeting and discusses his view for future 50bps interest rate increases and the possible affect on the Treasury yield curve. The team's written preview can be found Fed Terminal-Rate Calibration Makes Pace of 2H Moves Uncertain. He also mentions the Treasury Department's refunding announcement expected a few hours prior to the Federal Reserve statement release. He expects coupon security auction sizes to stabilize after having been cut the past several quarters. Manolatos then discusses his view for the Bank of Canada and inflation expectations. Jersey also mentions the risk that inflation may remain above the Fed's target and what might occur if the central bank remains quite hawkish. Manolatos then discuss how quickly the Fed's Treasury Bill portfolio will runoff given current asset runoff plans.
In this Credit Chat edition, BI Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman is joined by Bloomberg News' Olivia Raimonde, David Brooke and Rachel Butt to discuss what's driving this year's sharp drop in high yield debt issuance, the transition of investor demand toward leverage loans and private credit, and the rise in distressed credits.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by the Founder and CIO of Emso Asset Management, Mark Franklin, and the co-deputy CIO, Jens Nystedt. The guests share their outlook for emerging markets in the wake of Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging and the war in Ukraine.
Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss algorithmic trading and increase in electronic tool usage in the municipal industry, with guests Marty Mannion and Matt Schrager from TD Securities.
In this inaugural Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower. The two discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Global Creditors Tempted to Lean In After $5 Trillion in Losses. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Jersey and Sassower also discuss one of the risk higher yields will post to returns, but Jersey notes that the path matters, suggesting higher yields may be a near-term risk, while longer term an economic slowdown is more likely. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments in the distressed debt markets. Topics include where we are in the distressed debt credit cycle, Incora's new financing and debt exchange, Toys R Us litigation, AMC's foray into gold mining and Exela Technologies' array of capital structure maneuvers.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu. The trio discuss their report “Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization,” in which they note the dollar is likely to remain the dominant reserve currency, but regional trade blocks may form. Childe-Freeman highlights the challenges for the euro to overtake to dollar, such as lack of fiscal and banking union within Europe. Chiu suggests that Chinese financial markets need to mature further for the yuan to greatly increase its use in international transactions, but notes the yuan could reach FX reserve levels similar to the pound sterling or Japanese yen. Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/R8IMK9T0AFBB
In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by BI credit analysts Jeroen Julius, Jody Lurie, Spencer Cutter and Mike Holland to discuss the risks, and potential rewards, a broad swath of issuers across banking, energy, healthcare and leisure as inflation rises, war rages in Ukraine and pandemic headwinds/tailwinds persist.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Blaise Antin, Managing Director & Head of Sovereign Research at TCW Group. Antin shares his outlook for emerging-markets following Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. From rising geopolitical risk to global monetary policy tightening, emerging-market debt performance should remain volatile.
Months long spikes in rate volatility has adversely impacted the municipal market in 2022. One of the positives to come of this sea change is that credit may start to be re-priced back into the municipal market. That could impact high yield moreso than investment grade credits. These are among the issues discussed by BI Senior U.S. Municipal Strategist Eric Kazatsky and guests John V. Miller from Nuveen and Bloomberg's Amanda Albright.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Wong and Jersey discuss their views on what's next for the Federal Reserve after it raised interest rates by 25 bps. Wong notes she was surprised by the hawkishness of the Fed's dot plot, while Jersey was surprised by Chairman Jerome Powell's mention that details of asset runoff would appear in the minutes of the meeting. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, Manolatos reviews the developments of the dot plot and suggests that two members likely moved down their long term neutral federal funds rate expectation.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert contemplate how long the lull in distressed may last as analogs in the past may offer an answer. The two also discuss how the Russia-Ukraine war may impact on distressed supply, Revlon, and Diamond Sports' recent exchange offer.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence EM Credit Strategist, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Sassower and Jersey discuss the implications of recent political events, including the UN vote after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sassower analyzes the various political actions from China, India, and even Cuba. He also discusses possible market drivers in the near term for currencies, commodities and credit spreads. Jersey notes that dollar funding doesn't appear to be driving Libor/OIS wider, but rather an expected slowdown in bank profitability. Manolatos then offers his view on the Bank of Canada's interest rate hike, and Jersey his take on the Federal Reserve and U.S. rates markets.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Fabio Natalucci, IMF Deputy Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, and Rohit Goel, IMF Financial Sector Expert. Natalucci discusses the risks to financial stability as restrictive monetary policy overlaps with record debt levels. Goel delves into the world of EM sustainable finance as flows into ESG-related investments have surged in recent quarters.
In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by credit analysts David Havens and Himanshu Bakshi and BI's senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, to discuss the rising impact of Bitcoin on corporate credit, including Coinbase and Block.
In this latest episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright discuss the changing landscape of muni buyers with our guest is Sylvia Yeh, Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. We also look at how the rocket like growth in separately managed accounts is changing the way buyers look at tax-frees.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Lauren Goodwin, Investments Economist and Strategist at New York Life, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Goodwin discusses her views on the inflation after the January CPI print surprised to the upside, and notes a risk that wages could continue to climb, making inflation more persistent. She explains which sectors she thinks will outperform and suggests the market may be pricing for too many Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year - with four being her base case. Manolatos reviews how the market has re-priced for the path of Fed interest rate increases and notes that the terminal rate is approaching 2% on the back of the strong inflation print.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss why volatility and declines in Treasuries and equity doesn't faze distressed debt supply. The two also review how Sinclair Broadcast Group stakeholders may perceive Diamond Sports Group's proposed transaction, which would bring in $600 million of new financing and shuffle Diamond's debt stack a bit.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI's head of Fixed Income Market Structure Research Sean Savage and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey shares his takeaways from the Jan. 26 FOMC meeting and post meeting press-conference, as well as the market reaction. Savage discusses how the central bank continues emphasizing its policy rate target as its main tool, and also the composition of the FOMC's balance sheet and how the T-bill portfolio may evolve. Manolatos says how the MBS unwind may be a bit different than last time and weighs in on the Bank of Canada's decision.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Freeman begins discuss the reasons the dollar may have turned recently and why she's still somewhat bullish, but believes the euro could also surprise as she thinks economic growth may beat expectations. She then talks about central bank outlook may affect her view on FX, plus how currency pairs may react to a risk off event as central banks tighten monetary policy. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos reviews how the Federal Reserve started portfolio runoff in the prior tightening cycle, and how much is available for runoff if the Fed decides to take such action later this year.
In this Credit Chat edition, Joel Levington, BI's Global Head of Credit Research and Stephen Flynn, BI Sr. Telecom, Cable & Media analyst join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the trajectory of high grade and high yield fundamentals, rising star potential, funding expectations and outlooks for Ferrari, Ford, Tesla, Netflix, T-Mobile and Dish.
In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Win Thin, Senior Vice President & Global Head of Market Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman. Thin shares his 2022 outlook for emerging markets, as the asset class faces challenges from Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging to Russian foreign policy, and Brazilian election risk.
In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Amanda Albright, Bloomberg News, Ksenia Koban, Payden and Rygel, Monica Reid, Kestrel Verifiers and Chris Hartshorn, ICE. All are here to discuss the municipal market and how investors and issuers are embracing sustainable investing.
FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief European Interest Rate Strategist Huw Worthington and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey discusses the end state of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and how he believes it will begin to reduce its assets beginning in May or July, soon after interest rates are first raised. Worthington says it may be a long way off from the start to asset runoff for the ECB, as the central bank said it won't start reduction until it hikes, and that is unlikely before mid-2023. And Manolatos shares his outlook for the Bank of Canada and notes that government bond liquidity may be at risk as assets run off quickly.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss why higher rate fears and omicron may not derail the credit rally through 1Q. The two also review Intelsat's confirmation, a recent Hertz legal decision, Nordic Aviation Capital's Chapter 11 filing, and some highs and lows of bankruptcy auction experiences.
In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, host and BI Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Christian Lawrence, Managing Director and Senior Cross-Asset Strategist at Rabobank. Lawrence shares his 2022 outlook for currency and debt valuations across EM. And the two assess the pace of central bank policy tightening on bond yields, credit spreads and local currencies across the globe.
In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief US Economist Anna Wong and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey begins the show discussing the Federal Reserve's December meeting with Wong, with a focus on the press conference. Wong notes her view that the Federal Reserve may hike as early as March, with both she and Jersey agreeing an initial hike by June 2022 is very likely. Jersey notes that faster taper announcement hasn't roiled markets because he believes the January-March 2021 Treasury sell off was a "taperless tantrum." Wong also discusses her risk case scenarios for future Fed action. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos discusses the nuances of the Feds continued purchases and the affect on bank reserves and the Fed's reverse repurchase agreement facility. He notes that the RRP facility may fall in the near term as T-bills are issued reducing bank reserves as the Treasury General Account increases. Jersey and Manolatos discuss when, why, and how an early start to Fed balance sheet reduction may occur.
In this Credit Chat edition, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie and credit reporter Lisa Lee join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the credit market's biggest risks and rewards heading into 2022 with uncertainty, inflation and spreads increasing.
In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Peter DeGroot, Head of Municipal Bond Research and Strategies from JP Morgan, Vikram Rai, Head of Municipal Strategy at Citi, and Mikhail Foux head of Municipal Strategy and Research at Barclays. All are here to recap 2021 municipal bond successes and look ahead to the new year.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert share their views on how the omicron variant may impact high yield and distressed. The two also review some memorable 2021 bankruptcy themes (Hertz, Intelsat, Washington Prime Group), and provide thoughts on the direction of distressed credits Revlon and Sinclair subsidiary Diamond Sports Group.
In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief European Rate Strategist Huw Worthington and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey begins the show with his outlook on U.S. rate markets and the Federal Reserve in 2022, and suggests a faster taper at the December Federal Reserve meeting doesn't mean faster or fewer hikes, as the market is pricing. Worthington discusses his view on the European Central Bank and the Bank of England -- including how the BOE might conduct balance sheet reduction via bond sales should the bank hike interest rates to 1%. Manolatos provides his view on the Bank of Canada, which he thinks will be relatively hawkish, and in the Fun Fed Facts segment notes that if the Fed does double the pace of taper it will leave open possibility for interest rate liftoff at the March 2022 meeting.
Alejandro Cuadrado, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), joins Damian Sassower of Bloomberg Intelligence to share his outlook for currency and debt valuations across Latin America. The two discuss the outlook for portfolio flows, potential for future monetary tightening and post-election positioning in Argentina and Chile.
In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Jim Colby, Senior Municipal Strategist of Van Eck, to discuss high yield municipals heading into 2022, and navigating a black swan event for an ETF.
In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, to discuss inflation dynamics and the Federal Reserve's reaction function. Shepherdson doesn't believe the Fed will hike prior to 3Q22, even with the next few months' inflation running very hot. In a second segment, Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews his views on Canadian interest rates and suggests that the Bank of Canada may hike prior to the Fed, and rates generally should climb in 2022.
In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of energy and utility analysts (Spencer Cutter, Jaimin Patel and Paul Vickars) join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the sectors biggest risks and rewards as inflationary pressure and demand are rising.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel join Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss how distressed debt may be stuck in a trough through May. Also discussed: The latest in Johnson & Johnson's subsidiary's (LTL Management LLC) bankruptcy filing as well as GTT Communications' pre-packaged filing.
This Muniland edition, hosted by Municipal Strategist Eric Kazatsky, focuses on muni ETF industry.Neil Azous, PM for Rareview Tax Advantaged Income ETF (RTAI). discusses muni ETF industry, Closed End Funds and how being a new player in the industry can give edge.
This Macro Matters edition, hosted by BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey, focuses on central banks' outlooks. Dan Hanson of Bloomberg Economics discusses the Bank of England and his view that higher inflation now may push the bank to hike too quickly, causing inflation to undershoot after a few years. Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews the Bank of Canada meeting and shares his skepticism of the early hikes the market is pricing. And host Jersey gives his views of the Federal Reserve taper and suggests that the Fed may wait longer than the market is anticipating to hike, which may lead to further yield curve steepening.
Original recording date: October 21, 2021
In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of consumer analysts including Jody Lurie, senior travel and leisure analyst, Mary Ross Gilbert, senior U.S. consumer products analyst, and Louise Parker, European consumer staples analyst, join Robert Schiffman to share their outlook for consumer credits, with systemic risk and inflationary pressures showing signs of rising.
In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, Alessio de Longis, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Tactical Asset Allocation for Invesco, joins Damian Sassower of Bloomberg Intelligence to discuss the smart-beta revolution, as factor-based investment expands from equities to fixed income and foreign exchange. De Longis shares his views on factor-based investment performance across different beta regimes, and highlights the growing importance of emerging market risk premia. The two focus on the importance of active management, portfolio diversification, market liquidity and tail risk when taking a factor-based approach to investment.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, who discusses why she thinks the dollar has more to rally - regardless of circumstances, how elections might affect the euro, and why Sterling remains at risk. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Bloomberg Intelligence Associate Analyst Angelo Manolatos gives an update on how much the Federal Reserve's securities holds have grown as it prepares to reduce purchases next month.
In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI Bankruptcy Litigation Analyst Negisa Balluku and Distressed Credit Analyst Philip Brendel join Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss the momentum in high yield markets, what may stop it and when. Also discussed: The latest for Washington Prime Group, Aeromexico, Latam Airlines, Intelsat and in Hertz’s Make-Whole battle.
In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, host and BI Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Jonny Goulden, managing director of global EM research at JP Morgan. Goulden shares his outlook for emerging market debt, as the asset class can add incremental returns to global fixed income portfolios in an environment characterized by historically low developed market bond yields. The two discuss the relative allure of EM carry, the re-rating in China credit and the risks associated with central bank tapering.
In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong who discusses her path to join Bloomberg, what she's looking at for the future of the economy, and why she thinks a 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike isn't out of the question. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Bloomberg Intelligence Associate Analyst Angelo Manolatos reviews the distribution of the FOMC's "dot plot" that now shows half the committee thinks an interest rate increase could come in 2022. He also mentions how market pricing differs from the newly minted 2024 dots.
In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of BI analysts including Jeroen Julius (Europe), Arnold Kakuda (U.S.) and Himanshu Bakshi (Canada, Australia) join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the outlook for bank and financial credits, with systematic risk and rates showing signs of rising.