Townhall Takeaways: Recent Episodes
Willie Delwiche
In the Townhall Takeaways for March 2, take a look at two years of price action that has left the S&P 500 virtually unchanged. Taking a broader view, evidence of bull market behavior has generally been lacking. We conclude with a reminder that even though commodities may not always merit a place in our portfolios, we do well to keep them as an ongoing part of the conversation.
In the Townhall Takeaways for February 23, we focus on mulligans and driving blind. Investors have been reluctant to embrace stocks and recent volatility have them wanting a do over. The Fed would probably like to back to 2019 and re-consider its decision to prematurely cut rates. With typical seasonal patterns not holding true to form, investors need to lean all the more on what is actually being seen and not what should or could happen.
In the this week's Townhall Takeaways we turn our focus to where we would expect to see signs of stress if market conditions are deteriorating. Stress is not evident in corporate bond yields (either levels or momentum) and we don't see it from a US sector perspective. The drop in the percentage of global markets above their 50-day averages, however, needs to be monitored.
In our Townhall Takeaways for February 9 we discuss the ways in which various market participants are trying to get on the same page. We see investors are embracing the market strength and the market coming around to the Fed's view that rates could finish the year above 5%. But there remain disconnects, especially within the market itself and the combination of strength and volatility we have seen so far this year.
In our townhall takeaways for February 2 we slow down, zoom out and bring some perspective to a week for that has felt so pivotal for the market and the Fed. We look at how this year is shaping up to be perfectly normal in terms of new highs vs new lows and how the latest bounce has yet to impact longer-term trends. We finish with a discussion of sentiment and how even after a year of persistent pessimism, investors have continued to embrace equities.
In our townhall takeaways for January 26 we discuss how continued volatility is making it hard for investors to embrace stocks. We preview next week's FOMC meeting and the expensive game of chicken being played between the Fed and the market. Finally, without higher highs it's hard to make a robust case for a new bull market.
In our Townhall Takeaways for January 19, we look at how investors have greeted recent strength with a healthy dose of optimism and how that strength has been enough to turn our tactical model bullish. Finally, we zoom out and see that a decade and a half of strength in the US versus EAFE is coming to an end. Trends around the world are turning higher.
In our Townhall Takeaways for January 12, we look at how this year's fast start contrasts with 2022 and how investors will need to embrace the rally if recent strength is likely to be sustained. How investors respond could help resolve the imbalance between sentiment and positioning that intensified in 2022.
In our Townhall Takeaways for December 22 (our final of the year), we discuss a few of the charts that have us full of wonder about what might be in store for 2023 and beyond. We see that household liquidity remains historically low, the S&P 500 faces a choice between two competing paths and 2022 is ending with stocks, bonds and commodities all in downtrends.
In our Townhall Takeaways for December 15 we discuss how central banks are no friends of risk assets right now and how US stocks seemed to have entered a new secular bear market as they wrap up the first year of what could be a lost decade. In such an environment, the summer highs and lows for the S&P 500 could be more persistent than either the bulls or the bears want to believe.
In our Townhall Takeaways for December 8, we discuss the search for the bulls that will be needed to fuel bull market gains and we look at two examples of how having a love affair with an asset class is less rewarding than following the trend in the direction of opportunity.
In our Townhall Takeaways for December 1, we contrast the latest monthly asset allocation data from AAII with the weekly sentiment survey data and look at whether the S&P 500 being above its 200-day average makes much of a difference for market performance. We wrap up with a look at the number of sectors above their 200-day averages and what that might tell us about market prospects going forward.
In the Townhall Takeaways for November 17, we put the big weekly swings in the S&P 500 in historical context, show how new bull markets are more characterized by the absence of new lows than the presence of new highs, and see that one of our favorite leading indicators has broken out to its highest level in over a decade.
In the Townhall Takeaways for November, I discuss why we want to move beyond big day-to-day price swings, how stocks are more overpriced versus bonds than they have been in 20 years and what levels we are looking at for evidence of sector level strength.
In this week's Townhall Takeaways, I tackle the topic of pivots - reviewing where they are absent (Fed policy and investor behavior) and where they are present (market leadership).