Global Macro Update: Recent Episodes
Mauldin Economics
What’s really driving US and world events? What are the real motives for Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s actions? How will the latest crisis affect your personal life and investments? Global Macro Update with Mauldin Economics Publisher Ed D’Agostino is a deep dive into current macroeconomic world affairs—from black-swan events to the chess moves of global leaders and market makers. Every week, Ed interviews top experts in geopolitics, economics, finance, and industry to deliver their inside scoops straight to your doorstep.
A hedge fund nearly blew up in a single week—not because of a bad bet, but because of leverage. And that's a problem the US government knows well. This week, Jared Dillian joins Ed D'Agostino to unpack what higher rates mean for America's debt, Japan, and the yen; why he's still one of the last bond bulls standing; and why he thinks the real tech bear market begins the day OpenAI files its S-1. Plus, Jared's new book, The Awesome Portfolio—a smarter, lower-stress way to save for retirement.
Barry Habib, CEO of MBS Highway and four-time winner of Zillow's Crystal Ball Award, joins Ed D'Agostino to answer a question that causes a lot of pushback: Is housing really harder now than it was for previous generations?
Yes—and also no. Barry makes the case that 45% of first-time buyers are sitting out over a down payment myth, walks the math on why a homeowner's net worth is 44 times a renter's, and explains why mortgage rates from here depend less on the Fed than on the price of oil.
Michael Howell of GL Indexes and Capital Wars joins Ed D'Agostino to explain how global liquidity is being drained by four converging forces—central bank tightening, surging oil, a rising dollar, and spiking bond volatility—just as a massive wall of COVID-era debt comes due for refinancing. He makes the case that the bull market is likely over, the traditional 60/40 portfolio is breaking down, and where investors should be looking.
Geopolitical strategist Jacob Shapiro breaks down the long-term implications of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran. Recorded in the middle of extraordinary oil price swings and a Strait of Hormuz disruption, the conversation moves beyond the daily headlines to explore what this conflict means for the Gulf states' ambitions as global financial hubs, the vulnerability of critical energy chokepoints, and the accelerating shift toward a multipolar world.
Eric Fine, an emerging markets bond portfolio manager at VanEck, discusses how EM bonds currently yield roughly double what you get in developed markets at lower volatility. And yet, almost nobody owns them. He also unpacks how Middle East tensions are creating winners among oil exporters, why the dollar will slowly share its reserve status, and what 13 years of outperformance says about where fixed income is heading.
Yields have every reason to go up—and they're not. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins Global Macro Update to explain what that signal means and why he's more cautious on the economy than the current consensus. Neil was among the few against the 2022 recession narrative and was proven right. Now he's watching the same four indicators, and the conclusion has flipped. Plus: tariffs, AI and the labor market, and a candid take on the Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination.
Jan Stuart, one of the sharpest oil minds on Wall Street and global energy strategist at Piper Sandler, cuts through the headlines for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of global oil markets heading into 2026. Is there really an oil glut? What is China doing with all that crude? And is the US shale boom finally running out of steam? Jan answers all… and more.
Gavekal CEO Louis Gave is here this week to discuss emerging markets, China's manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US. If you're discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), this conversation is for you.
Marko Papic discusses the evolving landscape of GeoMacro analysis, emphasizing the integration of political and geopolitical factors into investment strategies. He highlights the rapid changes in market dynamics, the implications of dollar debasement, and the shifting focus of investors toward global opportunities, particularly in Europe. Papic also explores the structural reforms and economic potential within Europe, as well as the importance of defense spending in the current geopolitical climate.
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures discusses the shifting global order in this essential conversation. He explains why the world is "re-anchoring" away from the Cold War framework, how Russia's failure in Ukraine has ended its status as a global power, and why the US-China relationship is now the defining geopolitical dynamic of our era.
Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders joins us to discuss why geopolitical events rarely move markets long-term, how AI investment themes are evolving, and why 74 stocks outperformed Nvidia in 2025. Plus, Sonders shares her jigsaw puzzle philosophy on investing and more.
"Even before a single missile or shot at Taiwan, the market will already react." Ed sits down with Lyric Hughes Hale, editor-in-chief of EconVue, and Taiwan-based analyst Eric Huang to discuss a hidden vulnerability in global markets: Taiwanese insurance companies.
This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Hear about his market cycle clock—and why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.
Everyone worries AI will take their job. Steve Lord thinks we'll hit a bigger wall first: power. Lord is COO of Burkland Associates, which works with Andreessen Horowitz and dozens of other top VC firms. Hear about the infrastructure bottleneck facing AI, what went wrong with crypto's original promise, and Lord's advice for founders trying to raise capital in today's market.
CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell built his framework for tracking global liquidity while at Salomon Brothers. His central thesis: the ratio between debt and liquidity predicts financial crises and asset bubbles. Howell explains why the $350 trillion global debt pile requires $70 trillion in annual refinancing, how ZIRP created the "everything bubble," and what happens when the bill comes due.
While the Fear and Greed Index just hit "Extreme Fear" territory, Spectra Markets president Brent Donnelly says we're in more of a rotation than a panic. Brent and I talk about the AI trade—why Meta's earnings marked a shift, whether OpenAI's $500 billion valuation is defensible, and why 65% of respondents would short it. Plus, why Buffett just bet on Google.
Bruce Mehlman unpacks the government shutdown, the recent Democratic sweep, and the AI bubble. Then he pulls out his crystal ball for the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential predictions.
Everyone is wondering if we're in another tech bubble. There's a mad rush to invest in AI, and tech companies are breaking valuation records, with Nvidia leading the charge. My friend Jared Dillian believes we're back in 1997/98. Hear why on today's episode.
Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race, India's potential as a tech superpower, and how drug cartels impact Mexico's relationship with the US.
There's a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni's predictions: he's usually right. Today, Dr. Ed explains AI's impact on the labor market, how boomers are propping up consumer spending, and what the Fed should do next. You'll also hear his take on China, rising gold prices, and the Mag 7 by listening now.
MBS Highway founder Barry Habib says mortgage rates could drop below 6%, warns about supply-demand imbalances, and unpacks emerging threats from AI job displacement that could impact homeownership and wealth creation.
Large-cap growth has been on fire for 15 years, but that streak may finally be coming to a close. As Big Tech’s summer rally fizzles out, small-cap value stocks are showing signs of life.
In this interview, Jared Dillian breaks down the concept of a “style-box rotation,” explaining why small-cap value may be poised for a powerful turnaround.
“Anytime Trump says something, it is harmful to my positions.” For commodities trader Jared Dillian, the spring tariff meltdown broke the market for good. And we may be due for a second tariff-driven sell-off this fall.
The simultaneous sell-off of stocks, bonds, and US dollar is a big deal. Brent Donnelly from Spectra Markets explains how broken trust has left permanent scars on US trade policy: “Once an action has been taken, you can remove the action, but then there's still going to be some damage.”
All trade wars have a currency effect, but what happens when nations drive down their currencies to counter US tariffs? John Mauldin explains why he doesn’t believe China is using US treasuries as a weapon—and where the trade war will hurt most.
There’s no substitute for experience. That was evident this week in the markets. While most people were confused or frozen, at least one investor (our old friend Jared) was making money after spending the past few months positioning himself for a week like this one. Part of his strategy involves using options, but not for speculation…
Private equity is buying up America—everything from nursing homes to the local plumbing business. Some are calling it a bubble, with the value of global private equity deals reaching $2 trillion in 2024. Brendan Ballou, author of the new book Plunder, says the real trouble with PE comes from weak regulations that incentivize bad decisions.
Modern history is rife with examples of wars that grind on needlessly, only to end with no clear winner. There is a risk this will happen with Ukraine, though President Trump is eager to force a settlement. BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic joins us to unpack what happens next.
Inflation is dropping quickly, but you wouldn’t know it from the headlines. Danielle DiMartino Booth explains why, highlighting layoffs and other underreported recession signals. As she’s said before, “There is no greater drag on inflation than job loss.”
George is back! Over half a million people caught my last interview with George shortly after the US and Russia began settlement discussions about Ukraine. Today he responds to the animated comments that followed, explaining why Russia cannot wage war in Europe, NATO's diminishing relevance, and how the flurry of activity at the White House compares to Roosevelt's first hundred days in office.
Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian is here to talk deflationary tariffs, troubling signs from the housing market, the rising risk of a recession, and why he’s “super bullish on bonds.”
In the US, 10% of commercial egg-laying hens have died from the bird flu in the last eight weeks. Egg prices are set to soar another 41% this year. Are we in for another pandemic? Cumberland Advisors co-founder David Kotok discusses the economic domino effects of pandemics across history.
If you feel like the world order is being rearranged, you’re right. George Friedman explains the geopolitical machinations behind Ukraine settlement talks and President Trump’s plan to “redesign the world.”
My friend Jacob Shapiro is back, and he sees ample opportunities for investors who can tune out white-noise media. “For the next five, 10 years, these are the years of plenty.” We also cover economic resiliency, US energy security, and the ripple effects of tariffs on US-China relations.
The US has a China problem. Our biggest geopolitical rival has a massive trade surplus, and it’s working to usurp America’s position as the global hegemon. What effect will the new Trump tariffs have on this ongoing rivalry? As our guest today, China specialist Lyric Hughes Hale says, “Communism always ends in tears.”
China has weaponized fentanyl against the US. Today we’re speaking with Canadian journalist Sam Cooper about how China and Canada drive the opioid trade, money laundering in Vancouver, Mexican cartels, and corruption at the highest levels of government. They’re all in on it…
US-Canada relations are strained. Many believe Canada isn’t doing enough to choke off illegal immigration or to protect North America’s security interests in the Artic, which Russia and China aim to dominate. We’re covering this and more with Canadian journalist Jonathan Roth.
The stock market dipped 3% on Wednesday, and I know many investors are getting nervous. Hearing from a technical analyst like Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, is particularly important now, when the leading macro analysts all seem to have wildly different outlooks. Note: We recorded this interview on Dec. 12.
Felix Zulauf says “We're moving away from the world we come from.” He’s back again to discuss the Trump tariffs, deglobalization, and the slide toward “state capitalism.” Listen in to learn where to invest in 2025 to benefit from the changing world order.
My friend Jared Dillian is back to discuss everything from Indian stocks, Milei’s Argentina, and burning cars in France, to Social Security and how to make money in 2025.
China Beige Book’s Shehzad Qazi pegs the probability of a US-China trade war in 2025 at 100%. Is India the next China? What does slower growth in China mean for the global economy? Get Shehzad’s take in our interview.
When it comes to cybersecurity, intelligence expert Karim Hijazi says the election is not “under control.” Russia, China, Iran—plus “hackers for hire”—are busy meddling. Their goal isn’t necessarily to tilt the scales in favor of one candidate or party, but to weaken the US as a whole.
Join Ed and macroeconomist Patrick Cox as they discuss demographic reversal, the collapse of Social Security, and rapid advances in longevity medicine, including compelling age-reversal research coming out of Johns Hopkins and MD Anderson.
Dr. Lacy Hunt says the US economy is in a “very precarious situation” and that it’s a mistake to pretend people are doing well when a closer look at the economic data shows they are hurting. He walks us through that data, making it easy to digest for the layman.
Manufacturing is returning to North America, thanks to automation, a greater focus on resiliency, and rising labor costs in China. This is a good thing, but it will require massive amounts of energy. Where will it come from? Mark Mills has some answers.
Will oil prices recover anytime soon? And what role should oil and gas stocks play in your portfolio? Get some answers from Piper Sandler global energy economist Jan Stuart, along with his thoughts on nuclear energy and China’s “giant Achilles heel.”
The narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weak demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down. Bison Interests founder Josh Young tells a different story, filled with OPEC cheaters, nationalization undertones, and a much smaller global oil supply than people think.
Building resiliency, in part by decoupling the US economy from China’s, is essential to our long-term security. China is doing the same thing. Yet China’s export business is booming, and it dominates trade with other emerging markets. Is a communist nation beating us at capitalism?
Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian highlights the $8 trillion private equity bubble, built on massive layers of debt, that poses a systemic threat to the entire financial system. Will we get another implosion like we had in 2008?
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did we cross a line? Or did we cross it decades earlier in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks?
Is the age of plenty over? Economist Bill White says it ended with COVID. Now we’re moving into an age of scarcity—and it’s putting us at war. As Bill puts it, “We're in a war to preserve our market-based, capitalist, democratic system in an environment that is going to be very, very difficult to navigate.”
Something phenomenal happened in 2001: People generated more information that year than they had in all human history combined to that point. Hear from former CIA analyst Martin Gurri, who unpacks the effects of this information “tsunami” in his book, The Revolt of the Public.
Is the US in “Cold War II” with China? CrowdStrike founder Dmitri Alperovitch believes we are, and that it could turn kinetic, starting with China invading Taiwan. Why? China can’t dominate everything in and around the South China Sea without full control of Taiwan. Is an invasion imminent?
We’re entering the golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, the founder of Praetorian Capital, but it won’t be fun for everyone. As the world unravels, thanks to runaway government debt and even more inflation, it will create exceptional opportunities for strategically positioned macro investors.
Will the stock market rise another 50% by 2030? Dr. Ed Yardeni says it could, citing tech-fueled productivity gains. Join me, Dr. Ed, and his colleague Eric Wallerstein (formerly of the New York Fed and The Wall Street Journal) as we discuss interest rates, inflation, and the housing market, plus which market sectors investors should focus on now.
AI is amplifying online national security threats. Intelligence expert Karim Hijazi discusses the “new Cold War” and how cyberspace became the primary medium for spycraft and warfare among advanced nations.
QI Research founder Danielle DiMartino Booth unpacks recession signals, how America lost its ability to budget, and whether we’re barreling toward stagflation. You’ll also hear about AI’s impact on jobs, “condo-mageddon,” and what all this means for the markets.
Gold keeps reaching new highs with demand coming from central banks, particularly China’s. Renowned macro portfolio manager Nick Glinsman discusses his preferred method for holding gold, the bifurcation of global commodity markets, and one of his top oil plays.
RiskHedge Chief Analyst Stephen McBride says, “99% of crypto is absolute garbage. I wouldn't touch it. I think the other 1% will change the world.” Stephen runs a crypto advisory that’s outperformed bitcoin. He shares his crypto portfolio’s largest holding and how new bitcoin ETFs will change crypto investing.
Broken Money author, Lyn Alden, likens today’s inflation to the fiscal-driven inflation of the 1940s. Add in a runaway federal deficit and increasing geopolitical instability, and it’s no surprise that gold and bitcoin have both reached new all-time highs.
Big Tech is watching. Companies like Google track what you read and watch, where you drive, and what you buy. Most of this is out of your control. Frank McCourt, Jr., author of Our Biggest Fight and former LA Dodgers owner, is putting up $500 million to change that.
Most Americans are pro-nuclear now, but US regulators are hindering our nuclear energy program without making us safer. Nuclear engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin highlights the onerous regulatory process, as well as the exciting progress we’re making with fusion and SMRs. You’ll also hear how the US is ceding global nuclear markets to its top adversary.
India looks amazing on paper: 1.4 billion people, the world’s fastest-growing economy, and rapid digitization. In this episode, you’ll hear why Cognitive Investment partner Jacob Shapiro gives India’s hottest growth sector a “9 or a 10.”
Has Xi already lost control? Renowned geopolitical strategist George Friedman is on the podcast to discuss the threat of civil war in China, solutions to the stalemate in Ukraine, and the future of Gaza.
Grant Williams calls Evergreen Gavekal CIO David Hay “one of the good guys.” We’re excited to welcome him to the podcast. Get David’s insights on the future of small nuclear reactors, China, and a specific investing signal you should be watching now.
Author and former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian discusses the Fed, why 90% of managing money is waiting, and his latest book, No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life. Jared shares how to get your big financial choices right—and the one decision that trumps them all.
Defense Dept. alumnus Elbridge Colby outlines the plan the US should implement now to avoid a “hot” war with China. This interview is a critical follow-up to Colby’s last discussion with Ed D’Agostino about Taiwan’s importance to US national security.
Foreign policy expert Elbridge Colby, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, breaks down China’s plan to dominate the Eastern Hemisphere and then challenge US hegemony. In other words: Are we going to war with China?
Former US Army Ranger Paul Scharre knows all about AI’s darker potential. He talks to Mauldin Economics publisher Ed D’Agostino about AI’s role in combat, the rise of Chinese-style techno-authoritarianism, and US vulnerabilities in the Panama Canal.
Renowned political pollster Dr. Frank Luntz says 70% of Americans don’t want a Biden vs. Trump rematch. Two-thirds would actively consider a third-party candidate. But could a third-party candidate actually win?
Good stuff is happening. GDP is up. Unemployment is low. Inflation has dropped. Yet people seem miserable. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm explains the disconnect.
When Felix Zulauf has a hunch, he’s usually right. Ed D’Agostino interviews Zulauf, the former head of UBS’s institutional portfolio management group and founder of Zulauf Consulting, about the end of the multipolar world and where the markets are headed.
Argentina may have finally done something right. Ed D’Agostino interviews Jared Dillian, author of No Worries and Editor of The Daily Dirtnap, about investing in emerging markets, Argentina’s new president-elect, and how to build a “life hedge” into your portfolio.
The US is scrambling to “de-risk” from China by fortifying US supply chains. But China has been de-risking from the US for over a decade. Ed D’Agostino speaks with former UBS chief economist George Magnus about what this geopolitical transformation means for Western investors and the huge changes happening at China’s Central Bank.
“Usually coincidences don’t exist in geopolitics.” Ed D’Agostino speaks to Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments about military tensions running hot across the globe, including the Israel-Hamas war, Ukraine, and dustups in the Balkans and the South China Sea. It almost makes you wonder if US enemies are acting in concert to spread our military thin.
Few people bring together as much expertise on the military, geopolitics, and investing as former CIA Director General Petraeus, who is currently a partner at global investment firm KKR. Petraeus and Ed D’Agostino discuss how the conflict in the Middle East could escalate, what Putin has really accomplished in Ukraine, and the United States’ delicate relationship with China.
The US can’t rely on Russia for uranium anymore. Hear from Uranium Energy Corp. CEO Amir Adnani on US energy policy and the critical role nuclear plays for the US military, NASA, and artificial intelligence-backed technologies.
Master of nuance Jacob Shapiro, a partner at Cognitive Investments, breaks down why the last 30 years of globalization were an aberration, how it started to unwind with Obama’s tire/poultry trade war, and which country will become “the next China.”
Bleakley Advisory Group CIO Peter Boockvar talks interest rates, why new housing construction is set to plummet, and what dog food says about the economy. You’ll also hear why chatter about China’s economic Armageddon is overblown and why that’s good for everyone.
Mauldin Economics COO Ed D’Agostino talks to Louis Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, about China’s so-called economic crisis, the Fed’s unspoken third mandate, and “the real story of the summer.”
Jan Stuart has one of the most fascinating jobs in finance. As an energy analyst at investment bank Piper Sandler, he not only monitors trends in the energy markets, but also the spiderweb of geopolitical forces that affect how (and if) 8 billion people across the globe keep the lights on. In the latest Global Macro Update interview, Jan and Ed D’Agostino discuss nuclear energy’s “green” makeover, the private support Bill Gates is pouring into nuclear development, and whether uranium bulls are too early to the party.
The state of modern warfare has changed. It has moved into space for control of what’s orbiting the planet. This poses new threats, including attacks on satellites that control global GPS, and sabotage that renders critical orbits unusable. And a new race to the moon is underway to capture the ultimate commanding heights. We also look at political angst in America, the growing belief that it is us against the political elites, and the upcoming presidential election. I cover that and a whole lot more with guest Dr. Pippa Malmgren, author, economist, and advisor to policymakers and presidents around the world.
US trade with China is way down with one disturbing exception: fentanyl. Thousands of Chinese companies are capable of manufacturing ingredients needed to produce the drug and exporting them to the West, along with instructions on how to create fentanyl powder. Many of these companies are state-owned enterprises, according to Allison Fedirka, my guest this week. She says there is no denying that China’s government is involved with the fentanyl drug trade to the US. Allison Fedirka is the director of analysis at Geopolitical Futures (GPF). My subscribers are familiar with the in-depth work of George Friedman and his team at GPF.
Zombie companies need cheap money to survive. Cheap money is a thing of the past, and casualties are piling up. It’s a familiar script: borrow money to fund growth, and compete on price. That business model fails when interest rates rise quickly. As debt-burdened, low-cost providers get squeezed by higher rates, more will fail. My guest is Barry Habib of Highway.ai. Barry fears the Fed is looking for clues in the rear-view mirror. Looking ahead and extrapolating trends would give the Fed a better perspective and less incentive to raise rates. We also cover interest rates, housing, and inflation.
My guest this episode sees several things simmering beneath the surface that suggest the economy may not be as weak as many believe. When inflation spiked last year, companies responded by raising their prices. As price pressures started to ease, companies opted to prioritize pricing over volume. The move made perfect sense, says Samuel Rines, Managing Director at Corbu, LLC, as pricing helped maintain margins. It’s a strategy he has dubbed “price and margin” (PAM). And as input costs retreated and prices stayed steady, the money fell to the bottom line. It’s one of the things that kept him bullish in the face of widespread bearishness early this year.
Trust in elected officials has been in steady decline for decades. It’s hard to decide if members of Congress and other elected officials are self-serving or civil servants. One thing is certain—many are getting richer while in office. They are investing based on insider knowledge. If you or I did that, we’d go to jail. If you are in Congress, it’s perfectly legal. Matt K. Lewis just released a book on this topic, and he pulls no punches. Filthy Rich Politicians explains just how badly our system is broken and which politicians are the most egregious when it comes to lining their pockets.
Socially responsible investing hasn’t changed anything while handing investors subpar returns. The envisioned benefits of ESG investing—owning companies that follow responsible environmental, social, and governance policies—have failed to materialize. Instead, the blind acceptance of ESG precepts has resulted in trillions of dollars being misallocated and zero progress toward its principle target: climate change. Terrence Keeley, author of Sustainable: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing, shows how ESG got the ideology right and the methodology wrong.
If you listen to the financial media, you’d think seven stocks are responsible for “the market’s” gain this year. But the charts are telling us otherwise. Almost every sector is up double digits since last June. To understand what’s happening in the markets, this week we connect with market technician JC Parets. JC is the founder and chief analyst at All Star Charts. The company offers daily market commentary and a technical analysis platform for research and options trading. He is seeing the continuation of a healthy sector rotation that started last year when value rallied. He has charts and comments on several stocks, commodities, and sectors.
The cost of college has risen so much that more than half of Americans no longer think a college education is “worth it.” We have reached the point where the cost of a four-year degree will likely be the second-largest expenditure in your lifetime, second only to your house. Students are literally mortgaging their futures to pay for college. What happens next for higher education, and how should prospective students and their parents weigh their options? These are the topics of this week’s Global Macro Update. Economist Dr. Gary Shilling joins us with his thoughts on the cost of higher education and alternatives to the college track.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the lifeblood of the technologies driving today’s global disruptions. And 2023 is the year that AI has been catapulted from novel idea to appearing on everyone’s radar. The AI narratives span from the promise of a George Jetson future to fears of a dystopian takeover by AI-empowered robots—and everything in between. To sort this all out, I talked with AI expert Stephen McBride for his take on where we are today, and how to spot the industries and occupations that will be most affected.
The world is not going to return to its pre-pandemic business as usual. Instead, we are currently in a transition phase that few understand. That’s why I asked Bruce Mehlman, partner at Mehlman Consulting, to join me on Global Macro Update to talk about what the new normal will look like. Bruce says we face four main challenges—what he calls The Four Addictions—as we navigate a period of tough domestic choices and geopolitical realignments. He explains what they are and how they are inextricably linked.
The debt ceiling has been dumbed-down to a political debate of right vs. left. But the ramifications of the debt standoff are already being felt in the debt markets, and it’s costing us billions of dollars. In this episode of Global Macro Update, I talk with David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors. We discuss the costs of brinkmanship, the risks posed to money market funds, the geopolitical side effects, and where he sees bargains in the bond market.
The Fed seems determined to crush demand and slow inflation. And it’s having an impact on more than just banks and the housing market. The office market is also struggling with spiking interest rates and scarce liquidity. In this episode of Global Macro Update, I talk with Russell Ingrum and Brad Zampa, two senior partners at CBRE, a global leader in commercial real estate services and investments. We discuss the current state of the office properties market. For more top-level insights like this, I invite you to attend our live, online Strategic Investment Conference. Hear over 40 experts share their best market ideas and their warnings about the economy and geopolitics. More information is available here.
You may remember the acronym MBS from the ’07–’08 financial crisis. Michael Lewis's book and then movie, The Big Short, taught us all about how the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market almost blew up the global financial system. Well, today, mortgage-backed securities are back in the news…
In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Barry Habib, founder and CEO of MBS Highway, joins Ed D’Agostino to discuss the role of mortgage-backed securities in Silicon Valley Bank’s failure—and if the other shoe will drop for the rest of the banking sector.
To hear more from Barry Habib, along with about 50 other financial and economic experts, click here for info on Mauldin Economics’ premier event, the Strategic Investment Conference.
The economy, as any investor knows or will quickly learn, is not the same as the stock market. What’s happening today resembles the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Talk of stagflation, recession, and hard and soft landings—it can make your head spin to see how quickly things have unfolded.
In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Dr. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, joins Ed D’Agostino to discuss today’s urgent storylines, as well as the two sectors Dr. Yardeni favors for long-term investors and how turbulent times can lead to a future led by productivity.
To learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni, you can read his bio here. It includes links to his book publications, a complimentary trial of his research service, and his LinkedIn newsletter.
Inflation in the system is much stickier than people anticipated, with corporations passing on prices to the everyday consumer. It begs the question: How high can prices go before there’s a breaking point when consumers begin to push back?
In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Samuel Rines, managing director of Corbu LLC, joins Ed D’Agostino to discuss how today’s inflationary environment boils down to the acronym POV and factors into the Fed’s next moves.
They also cover the craziness of “revenge travel,” widespread tech layoffs, low unemployment, rising wages due to the “Walmart Effect,” and how Middle America continues to play catch-up.
For even more of his insights, make sure to follow Sam on Twitter.
“The world is out of balance. The disruptive changes that were already rewiring the economy, geopolitics and US culture accelerated over the past 3 years, and a predictable backlash began. But we are nowhere close to a ‘new normal.’” In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Bruce, who is the head of Mehlman Consulting, a bipartisan Washington, DC lobbying firm, talks with Ed D’Agostino about the current political and geopolitical landscape... the effects of partisan division... and what to watch for in the next years. Don’t miss it. Click here to view Bruce’s fascinating infographic, “Disequilibrium.”
High interest rates have a silver lining: Savers are making money again. What opportunities are currently out there for fixed-income investors? Talking to show host Ed D’Agostino, Jason Brady, president and CEO of Thornburg Asset Management, gives Global Macro Update listeners the inside scoop. Have the markets returned to normal? Is now the time to invest in municipal bonds or distressed debt? Why the Fed’s thinking that 2020 was like 2008 was a grave error... and the number-one mistake investors make when they see an inverted yield curve like we have now. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
What will 2023 bring? Will it be a banner year for stocks, or will the economy crash and burn? Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group and editor of The Boock Report, gives Global Macro Update listeners his take on what’s in store. Will inflation drop to pre-pandemic levels? What are the investment implications now that the $16 trillion Chinese economy is reopening? Why we’re in a “death by a thousand cuts” environment... Why a “mild and shallow recession” isn’t necessarily a good thing... And are tech stocks a buy yet? For more of Peter’s keen insights on the economy and markets, click here to subscribe to The Boock Report. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
In 2014, a Russian piece of malware targeting Ukraine spread across the world and nearly wiped out the databases of container shipping giant Maersk, FedEx, Merck, and many hospitals in the US. Senior writer at WIRED and author Andy Greenberg talks to Ed D’Agostino about the realities of cyberwarfare. They also discuss cryptocurrencies and their role in cybercrime—including the riveting story of the dark-web kingpin who was taken down thanks to crypto’s formerly unknown traceability. Get Andy’s page-turners, Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin’s Most Dangerous Hackers, and Tracers in the Dark: The Global Hunt for the Crime Lords of Cryptocurrency on Amazon. Don’t miss this episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
According to a recent NBC News poll, 74% of Americans now think that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Show host Ed D’Agostino and Andrew Yang, former presidential primary candidate and co-founder of the Forward Party, discuss why our political system is so broken... and the common-sense solutions that could turn the ship around. No matter where you are on the political spectrum, you’ll be appalled to hear what career politics is really like—and amazed how much of this content you’ll agree on. For more of Andrew Yang’s bold ideas on how to rewire American democracy, read his book, Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy. Don’t miss this episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
Many investors wonder, how long until the whole house of cards comes crashing down? There are bright spots in the near term, says top global macro investor Felix Zulauf, but in a few years’ time, we might face a true calamity in our financial and economic systems. Felix and host Ed D’Agostino talk about the coming decade of roller coaster markets... what may replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency (and when)... and why we need to brace ourselves for the difficult years of 2024–25. Learn more about Felix’s spot-on analysis at https://www.felixzulauf.com. Don’t miss this episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
What to do, at a time when bonds, cryptocurrencies, and many other investments look less safe than ever before? Everyone should have some allocation to gold, says Milton Berg, CEO, CFO, and chief investment strategist at MB Advisors. Even if you don’t see explosive upside, it will preserve its value over the long term. Show host Ed D’Agostino and his guest discuss whether the bear market in stocks is over... the potential for a 1930s-style economic crash and what can be done to prevent it... what drives a stock’s price on any given day (hint: it is not momentum)... and more, in this episode of Global Macro Update. Don’t miss it—listen now!
How much of investing is luck, and how do you make your own luck? What are the secrets of success for the top investors of our time? What will the future look like for cryptocurrencies, the financial sector, and US retirees? Show host Ed D’Agostino and The Carlyle Group co-founder and co-chairman David Rubenstein discuss all these questions and more in this episode of Global Macro Update. Highly recommended read: David’s new bestseller, How to Invest: Masters on the Craft, a fascinating tour through the minds of some of the most successful investors of our age. Don’t miss it—listen now!
The FTX scandal—“crypto’s Enron,” as this week’s guest, Keith Fitz-Gerald, calls it—has been fanning investors’ fears of investments blowing up in their faces. Which stocks can you still trust, and which ones should you avoid? One thing’s for sure, says the well-known analyst, market educator, and co-founder of Keith Fitz-Gerald Research, sitting on the sidelines would be a costly mistake. Show host Ed D’Agostino and Keith talk about the top three factors to watch when picking stocks... which tech stocks to buy now and which to dump... and what’s next for the crypto-sphere. For more of Keith’s hands-on investing ideas and market perspective, click here to sign up for his free daily e-letter, 5 with Fitz. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
Any one of the problems we face—energy prices, housing, inflation—by itself wouldn’t break our back, says John Mauldin, co-founder of Mauldin Economics and one of the most brilliant minds in macroeconomics. But all of them coming together could create a serious crisis. Show host Ed D’Agostino and John discuss what the looming global debt crisis could mean for your portfolio... the disconnect between energy policies and energy needs... and why the Fed needs to “drive a stake through the heart of inflation.” For more of John Mauldin’s macroeconomic insights, click here to subscribe to his free weekly e-letter, Thoughts from the Frontline. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
Relying on the mixed messages from the Federal Reserve isn’t helping investors—it seems like it’s just as confused as everyone else. CPI, the main measurement the Fed looks at, is lagging the market, says contrarian investor and sentiment analyst Jared Dillian. In fact, despite what the Fed says, a new bull market may be just around the corner. Show host Ed D’Agostino and Jared discuss how to recognize when it’s here... which sector might lead the market rally... and how sentiment investing works in practice. To receive Jared’s research 255 days a year, click here for a special discount offer on his unique service, The Daily Dirtnap. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
Why is inflation so sticky, how long is it going to last, and where should we invest? Show host Ed D’Agostino talks with Vincent Deluard, director of global macro at StoneX, about the trifecta of trends that caused the current inflationary environment... why an economic slowdown won’t cure inflation... what to expect for 2023... and the three crisis-proof sectors every investor should own today. For more of Vincent’s excellent research, click here for a free trial to his StoneX reports. You can also follow him on Twitter. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
It started in the UK, but it’s only a matter of time before it spreads to the US and beyond: a pension fund crisis of gigantic proportions. Ben Hunt from Epsilon Theory and show host Ed D’Agostino discuss how, due to the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates after the 2008 Financial Crisis, pension fund managers—lured by Wall Street’s promises of outsized returns—took a gamble and lost. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, in a spectacular way. For more details on this topic, read Ben Hunt’s fascinating essay, “A Brief History of the Past 10,000 Years of Monetary Policy and Why Last Week Was a Big Deal.” Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
It’s a seller’s market now, but housing is about to reverse course, says real estate and mortgage expert Barry Habib, CEO of MBS Highway. Barry and show host Ed D’Agostino discuss why mortgage rates are about to drop, creating great buying opportunities... why the Fed won’t purchase any more mortgage-backed securities... how a specific type of real estate investment can give you a 320%+ return in less than a decade... need-to-know financing strategies for first-time homebuyers... and more. Learn more about Barry Habib and his work at https://mbshighway.com. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
Before you invest in a stock, check how happy the employees, customers, and suppliers of that company are, says Jon Clifton, CEO of polling company Gallup and author of the WSJ best-seller, Blind Spot: The Global Rise of Unhappiness and How Leaders Missed It. He and show host Ed D’Agostino discuss why global unhappiness is on the rise... which two emotional factors increase your risk of death by up to 50%... and how non-traditional indicators can have a major impact on a business’s bottom line. You can get Jon Clifton’s excellent book grounded in Gallup’s global research here: https://www.amazon.com/Blind-Spot-Global-Unhappiness-Leaders/dp/1595622454/ Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!
