The Pollsters: Recent Episodes
Voxtopica
Politics. Policy. Polling. Pop Culture.
Explore what America's thinking with two of the country's leading pollsters-the bipartisan team of Democrat Margie Omero and Republican Kristen Soltis Anderson. In this weekly podcast we take a fresh, friendly look at the numbers driving the week's biggest stories in news, politics, tech, entertainment and pop culture. Along with the occasional interview with pollsters, journalists, and other industry leaders, we'll lift the hood on the numbers revealing the hidden secrets of the public's mind.
Large Voter Turnout
Voter Turnout Appears Steady; Enthusiasm Running High (Gallup)
Who Will Win?
Who Do Voters Think Will Win (Navigator)
Cookie Poll
Three Brothers Bakery Presidential Cookie Poll Has Accurately Predicted Winner of Last 3 Elections (KHOU)
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Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval(RealClear Politics)
General Election
Presidential General Election (RealClear Politics)
Coronavirus
Coronavirus Upends Nation, as Three in Four Americans' Lives Changed by Pandemic (ABC News/Ipsos)
Governors Get High Marks For Handling COVID-19 Crisis (Monmouth)
Tracking Public Opinion on the Coronavirus (Morning Consult)
Public Opinion on Coronavirus (Navigator)
Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index: Everything's Worse (Axios/Ipsos)
If you are interested in learning about starting your own podcast, or you have a podcast and want to improve production, distribution, or marketing, contact Richard Fawal at Junto Media, https://juntomedia.co.
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Florida Democratic Primary
Who Different Groups Supported (New York Times)
National Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Coronavirus
Trump Earns Mixed Grades on Coronavirus Response (Politico/Morning Consult)
Coronavirus (NPR/PBS/Marist)
Coronavirus (Reutors/Ipsos)
Public Trusts Health Agencies More Than Trump (Axios)
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Democratic Primary
Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Biden Crushes Sanders In Democratic Race (Quinnipiac)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Approval of U.S. Congressional Republicans Tops Democrats (Gallup)
Coronavirus
Trump and the Coronavirus (CNN)
Americans Divided on Party Lines Over Risk From Coronavirus (Reuters/Ipsos)
Republicans are Twice as Likely as Democrats to View Coronavirus Coverage as Exaggerated (Axios/Survey Monkey)
About One-Fifth of Democrats and Republicans get Political News in a Kind of Media Bubble (Pew Research Center)
92% of Americans Dating as Normal Despite Coronavirus (OKcupid)
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Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Michigan Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Corona Beer and the Coronavirus
The Spread of the Coronavirus Couldn't Have Come at a Worse Time for Corona Beer(CNN)
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Democratic National Primary
Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
South Carolina Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Debate Watchers Believe Bernie Sanders Made the Best Case for Defeating Trump (YouGov)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Republicans Increasingly Feel Like They’re ‘Winning’ Politically; Democrats Feel the Opposite (Pew Research Center)
Cornoavirus
How do Attitudes to Coronavirus Differ Across the World? (YouGov)
High Confidence in Government to Handle Coronavirus (Gallup)
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Democratic National Primary
Democratic National Primary(FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead in Primary Race (NBC News/WSJ)
Sanders Leads The Field, Bloomberg Qualifies For His 1st Debate (NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist)
Nevada Primary
Nevada Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Has Strong Lead in Nevada(Data for Progress)
South Carolina Primary
South Carolina Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight)
Americans and the Election
Americans Generally Upbeat About Election Campaign (Gallup)
Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S. (Gallup)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
National General Election
National General Election(RealClear Politics)
Bogus Respondents
Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents (Pew Research Center)
Chucking a Dead Chicken
Is Chucking a Dead Chicken a Fun Bar Event or Disrespectful to Animals? (Thorold News)
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Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight)
Who's Ahead in New Hampshire (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Takes Top Spot In Dem Primary As Biden Falls (Quinnipac)
New Hampshire Democratic Primary Exit Poll Results and Analysis (Wash Post)
Trump Approval
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
Trump vs. Klobucha (RealClear Politics)
Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected (Monmouth)
Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities (Gallup)
Impeachment Vote
Most Utahns pleased with Mitt Romney’s vote, but 60% of GOP has negative reaction (Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics)
Valentine’s Day
Valentine's Day poll: American's claim this dinner idea is most underrated (Instacart)
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On this 5th Anniversary episode, Kristen and Margie are joined by founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver. Nate founded Five Thirty Eight after being tired of the media covering politics with a lack of data.
Iowa Primary
The three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowa’s system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll.
The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to an error in polling. However, it was ended up being leaked prior to the Iowa Caucus. Nate believes that human error is a part of anything in life, even polling. In the case of the Ann Selzer poll he believes that the errors in the poll could have been fixed and published at a later date, instead of the chaos that ensued with the errors in the poll due to a tight deadline that was set.
Models in Polling
A model is a statistical algorithm that produces results. In polling models are statistics that are used to represent the world. Nate discusses the difficulties behind trying to build a model for the entire Democratic Nomination process. He shares that FiveThirtyEight focuses on predicting the outcome and as a result they focus more on topline numbers.
The Silent Trump Vote
It has been claimed that silent Trump voters played a role in the 2016 election, Kristen asks Nate if silent or shy Trump voters could play a roll in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election.
Find Nate Silver on Twitter @NateSilver538
Listen to the FiveThirtyEight Podcast Here!
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National Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
2020 Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)
Biden and Sanders are breaking away from the pack of candidates among Democrats nationwide (Washington Post/ABC News)
Electability in the Democratic Primary Polls (HuffPost/YouGov)
Iowa Primary
Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race (New York Times/Siena College)
New Hampshire Primary
New Hampshire Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders, Buttigieg top Democratic field in New Hampshire (NBC News/Marist)
California Primary
Bernie Sanders grabs lead in California presidential primary (UC Berkeley Institute)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Trump Impeachment
Americans still divided on Trump’s removal from office (Wash Post/ABC News)
General Election: Trump vs Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Nearly 6 in 10 oppose Trump’s use of executive privilege to muzzle witnesses (Politico)
Impeachment Witness Testimony (Quinnipiac)
Eating Meat
Nearly One in Four in U.S. Have Cut Back on Eating Meat (Gallup)
Four in 10 Americans Have Eaten Plant-Based Meats (Gallup)
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Democratic Primary
Who's Ahead in the National Poll? (FiveThirtyEight)
Who's Ahead in Iowa? (FiveThirtyEight)
Who's Ahead in New Hampshire? (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Widens Lead In N.H. (WBUR)
Trump Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Trump Third Year Sets New Standard for Party Polarization (Gallup)
General Election
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)
Trump Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Majority Support Allowing New Impeachment Evidence (Monmouth)
By a Narrow Margin, Americans Say Senate Trial Should Result in Trump’s Removal (Pew Research Center)
Senator Approval Rankings (Morning Consult)
New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment (GHY Research Group)
Abortion Laws
Do state laws on abortion reflect public opinion? (Pew Research Center)
Dissatisfaction With U.S. Abortion Laws at New High (Gallup)
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2020 Democratic Primary
Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders (FiveThirtyEight)
Who Won The January Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos)
Biden holds wide lead among black voters in Democratic presidential race (Washington Post/Ipsos)
2020 General Election
National General Election (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump trails 2020 Democratic contenders in Michigan (EPIC-MRA of Lansing)
Trump Approval/Impeachment
Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Issues That Matter to Voters
Several Issues Tie as Most Important in 2020 Election (Gallup)
Iran
Majority supports Trump’s decision to not strike back against Iran (Politico/Morning Consult)
More Americans Disapprove Of Trump's Handling Of Iran Than Approve (NPR/Marist)
Majority of U.S. Public Says Trump’s Approach on Iran Has Raised Chances of a Major Conflict (Pew Research Center)
The Oscars
Which Film Should Win Best Picture? (Hollywood Reporter)
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Party Preferences
U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era(Gallup)
Democratic Polling for Debate
DNC Tells Pollsters to Do More Polls (NewYorkTimes)
Democratic Primary
Sanders starts 2020 in strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire (CBS News)
Biden Is Democrats’ Best Bet to Beat Trump (Morning Consult)
Trump Job Approval/Impeachment
Trump Job Approval (Real Clear)
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (Real Clear)
A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal (FiveThirtyEight)
Geoff Garin on Hart Poll(Hart Research/Law Works Poll)
Iran
Can You Locate Iran? Few Voters Can(Morning Consult)
What Americans Think About Trump’s Iran Policy (Huff Post/YouGov)
Americans increasingly critical of Trump's record on Iran, most expect war (Reuters/Ipsos)
Celebrities and Politics
When Stars Like Taylor Swift Get Political, Do Voters Listen? (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)
#MeToo/Time’s Up
Americans Think #MeToo and Time's Up Are Making Progress (CBS)
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Polling Trends in Previous Elections
In Leaked Memo, Andrew Yang Asks DNC for More Debate Polls (DailyBeast)
2008 Iowa Republican Caucus (RealClear Politics)
2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus(RealClear Politics)
2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus(RealClear Politics)
2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
2020 Presidential Election
Who’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
Trump Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Most Admired Man
Obama, Trump Tie as Most Admired Man in 2019 (Gallup)
Fun Charts of 2019
Our favorite Pew Research Center data visualizations of 2019 (Pew Research)
The 56 Best — And Weirdest — Charts We Made In 2019 (FiveThirtyEight)
What Black Americans Want
A Nuanced Picture of What Black Americans Want in 2020 (Third Way/JCPES)
New Year, New You
Top 10 New Year’s Resolutions for 2020 (Polly/Advanced Symbolics Inc.)
Almost Half of People Stick to a New Year’s Resolution (Ipsos)
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Democratic Primary
What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different (FiveThirtyEight)
Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)
Trump Approval/Impeachment
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump job approval ticks up, views on impeachment steady (Fox News)
Peace at Thanksgiving
Only About 3% Of Americans Actually Fought About Politics On Thanksgiving (HuffPost/YouGov)
Dumbest Takes on Polling
Why public opinion polls don’t include the same number of Republicans and Democrats(PewResearch)
The Twilight of Landline Interviewing (PewResearch)
Year in Review
Bullock Misses First Debate (New York Times)
Republicans Generation Gap (New York Times)
Analytics Jumpstart (Echelon)
Holiday Shopping
2019 Winter Holiday Trends (NRF)
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Democratic Primary
Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)
Second Choice Candidates (Quinnipiac)
Trump Approval / Impeachment
Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)
Tracking Trump Approval (RealClearPolitics)
Who was the better President?
Democrats answer! (Monmouth)
Trust in the media
Republicans less likely to trust the news media (Pew Research)
UK Elections
Love, Actually?
Current predictions (YouGov)
Travel
What do people steal from hotels? (Wellness Heaven)
Unacceptable Airplane Behavior (YouGov)
Christmas Trees
Real versus Artificial (YouGov)
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2020 Presidental Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)
The Economist/You Gov Poll
California Voters Wanted Kamala Harris to Drop Out of Presidential Race (Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times)
Impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
UK Election
Europe Poll of Polls (Politico)
The key findings from our MRP (YouGov)
Poll Reveals Record-Breaking 30 Percent of Public Plan to Vote ‘tactically’ in General Election (ERS)
Giving Tuesday
Giving Tuesday poll: The causes Americans support (Axios)
‘All I Want For Christmas’ tops most annoying song poll, still tops Billboard’s Holiday 100 (Huawei)
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2020 Presidental Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
CBS News Battleground Tracker (CBS News)
Impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Impeachment Hearings (ABC/Ipsos)
Multi-Party Democracy
What if the U.S. Were a Multi-Party Democracy? (Echelon)
British Election
General Election 2019: The polling average might show a Labour surge, but the polls themselves don't (iPolitics)
Have you decided yet? Who will win the debate? (Lord Ashcroft)
Medicare For All
Blue Wall Voices Project (KFF/Cook)
Majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers shy away from 'Medicare for All' (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll)
Thanksgiving
More than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day Thanksgiving weekend (NRF/Prosper Insights & Analytics)
Turkey Day Exposé: How Americans Really Feel About the Big Dinner (Instacart/Harris Poll)
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2020 Presidental Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
Poll: Bloomberg's Potential Run is a Flop With Voters so Far(Politico/Morning Consult)
Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary (Quinnipiac)
Impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Framing the Next Step on Impeachment (Navigator)
Immigration/Supreme Court
Immigration/Border Security (Monmouth)
Immigration (CNN/SSRS)
Poll Finds Confidence in U.S. Supreme Court Overall, Though More Pronounced Among Conservatives (Marquette)
Veterans
Go Beyond the ‘Thank You’ (Cohen Veterans Network)
The American Veteran Experience and the Post-9/11 Generation (Pew)
New Poll of U.S. Troops and Veterans Reveals Their Thoughts on Current Military Policies (Smithsonian/Stars & Stripes)
Anxiety Over the Holidays
The worst thing to talk about during the holidays is not politics (YouGov)
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2020 Presidential Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds (The New York Times Upshot/Siena College)
Poll: Biden Holds Significant Lead over Warren, Sanders in Nevada; Top Issue is Electing Someone Who Can Beat Trump (The Nevada Independent)
Kentucky Governor - Bevin vs. Beshear (RealClear Politics)
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Partisan Opinion on Trump Digs in (Monmouth University Poll)
Trump Approval (Washington Post/ABC Poll)
Fish Pictures
Love at First Bite? (Fishbrain)
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2020 Presidential Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Partisans Dig In On Impeachment, but Majority of Americans Say Trump Administration Should Cooperate With Inquiry (CBS News)
Worst Impeachment Questions (Mclaughlin & Associates)
Trump Approval Foreign Policy
Trump Approval Foreign Policy (RealClear Politics)
Foreign Policy Approval(Navigator)
Support for Impeaching Trump Soars Among Independents (Reuters/Ipsos)
Syria (CNN/SSRS)
Job Approval Dips, Unfavorable Feelings Climb for President Trump (Grinnell)
Baseball
Is It True Fandom Or Just Rude To Stand During The Entire World Series Game At Nats Park? (DCist)
Halloween
Social Media Influencing Near-Record Halloween Spending (NRF/Propser Insights & Analytics)
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2020 Presidential Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April (CNN)
Iowa Caucus (RealClear Politics)
Trump and Impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Increased Support For Trump Impeachment in Wisconsin (Marquette University Law School)
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Impeachment Views in 6 Swing States (The Upshot)
Issue of the Week: Religion and Polarization
Widening Partisan Polarization and Key Issues in 2020 Presidential Elections (PRRI)
In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace (Pew Research)
Groundbreaking Pew Research Study Finds Pews Are Uncomfortable (The Babylon Bee; satire)
Millennials
Majority of Americans Say Parents Are Doing Too Much for Their Young Adult Children (Pew Research)
More work, more sleep: New study offers glimpse of daily life as a millennial (Washington Post)
Small Share of U.S. Adults Produce Majority of Tweets (Pew Research)
Team Meghan! (YouGov)
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2020 Presidential Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Who Won The Fourth Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight / Ipsos)
Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
How To Talk About Impeachment (Navigator)
Issue of the Week: Unskew the Polls
Fox News Pollster Misrepresented Impeachment Poll (Fox News)
Democrats Hold Edge in U.S. Party Affiliation in 3rd Quarter (Gallup)
Everyone Hates Everyone
Partisan Antipathy: More Intense, More Personal (Pew Research Center)
Americans Feel Divided On Core Values (Monmouth University Poll)
Syria
Most Americans Do Not Approve of Trump's Move in Syria (YouGov)
Nat's Baseball Isn't Boring
Washington Nationals Fan Confidence Up Heading into NL Wild Card Game (SB Nation FanPulse)
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2020 Presidential Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Bullock the only Dem to beat Trump in MT (U. of Montana)
Impeachment
Impeachment Tracker (FiveThirtyEight)
Voters Remain Divided On Impeachment (Quinnipiac)
Public views Ukraine charges as serious, but half say Trump shouldn't be removed (NBC News / The Wall Street Journal)
Majority of Americans say they endorse opening of House impeachment inquiry of Trump (Washington Post / Schar School)
House Republicans show no signs of abandoning Trump on impeachment (Public Opinion Strategies for NRCC)
Issue of the Week: Socialism, Capitalism and Government
Behind Americans’ Views of ‘Socialism’ and ‘Capitalism’ (Pew Research)
Public Expresses Favorable Views of a Number of Federal Agencies (Pew Research)
Vegetables!
Quarter Of Americans Have Never Eaten Vegetables (StudyFinds.org)
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2020 Presidential Campaigns
Great Society on Broadway, the poll
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
Monmouth Poll numbers Twitter
South Carolina Democratic voters strongly support Joe Biden (Winthrop University)
Trump approval (RealClear Politics)
Issue of the Week: Impeachment (again)
Do Americans Support Impeaching President Trump? (FiveThirtyEight, tracker)
Impeachment Support Up Slightly (Monmouth University)
Support for impeaching Trump rises among independents and Republicans (SSRS for CNN)
Support For Impeachment Grows (Quinnipiac)
Public Support For Impeachment Grows (HuffPost/YouGov)
Majority of Americans and Democrats approve of Trump impeachment inquiry (CBS)
NPR/PBS/Marist
Support for impeachment jumps in new poll (Morning Consult / Politico)
Candy Land!
Favorite Movie Candy Tweet (Lights, Camera Pod)
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Odds & Ends
Richard Madden’s T-Rex!
Inside Fox News’ polling ‘nerdquarium,’ whose numbers don’t lie whether Trump likes them or not (Los Angeles Times)
2020 Presidential Campaigns
Democratic Primary (RealClear Politics)
One Republican Party, Different Democratic Parties (Echelon Insights)
Trump Job Approval (RealClea Politics)
Latest National General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)
Issue of the Week: Impeachment
Impeaching Trump On Russia Was Unpopular. Will Ukraine Be Different? (FiveThirtyEight)
Voters largely unswayed by House Dems’ push for impeachment (Politico)
Would you support or oppose impeachment in this scenario? (YouGov)
National Poll, use of words “removal from office” (Quinnipiac)
Focusing Debates on Trump’s Honesty, Tax Fairness, and Government Shutdowns (Navigator)
President Trump and the Trump Administration (Quinnipiac via pollingreport.com)
Most Americans have heard of the situation with President Trump, Joe Biden and the president of Ukraine (Reuters/Ipsos)
The Steaks are High
How Americans order their steaks and hamburgers (YouGov)
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2020 Presidential Campaign
2020 Democrats (RealClear Politics)
Iowa Voter Survey (David Binder Research for Focus on Rural America)
Iowa Voter Survey (Civiqs - Iowa State University)
The Third Debate Influenced Those Who Watched … But A Lot Of People Didn’t (FiveThirtyEight)
Steve Kornacki Tweet of Crosstabs (NBC News/WSJ via Steve Kornacki)
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Issue of the Week: The Workplace
10 facts about American workers (Pew Research)
Do Workers Discriminate against Female Bosses? (Institute of Labor Economics, Germany)
Despite challenges at home and work, most working moms and dads say being employed is what’s best for them (Pew Research)
Union Approval Near 50-Year High (Gallup)
The Art of Bananas
This study is bananas (YouGov)
This drawing explains a surprising amount about your political views (YouGov)
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2020
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
President Trump trails potential Democratic challengers in 2020 test (WaPo/ABC News)
Latest CNN/SSRS Poll
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
Issue of the Week: 9-11 and its Impact
Ariel Edwards-Levy tweet of Sept. 2001 CBS Poll
Public Overwhelmingly Backs Bush in Attacks on Afghanistan (Gallup, Oct. 2001)
Bush Job Approval Highest in Gallup History (Gallup, Sept. 2001)
Iraq - Getting In Was Wrong; Getting Out Was Right (Quinnipiac, July 2014)
After 17 years of war in Afghanistan, more say U.S. has failed than succeeded in achieving its goals (Pew Research, Oct. 2018)
Pew Research Polling Data (2018)
Polls on Afghanistan (PollingReport.com)
Majorities of U.S. veterans, public say the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not worth fighting (Pew Research, July 2019)
UFOs and Government Transparency
Americans Skeptical of UFOs, but Say Government Knows More (Gallup)
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2020
Democrats Are Divided On What’s Dividing The Party (Huffington Post/YouGov)
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Issue of the Week: Guns
Poll: Most Republicans support assault weapons ban, despite Trump saying 'no appetite' (Politico/Morning Consult)
Trump Approval (Fox News)
What Percentage of Americans Own Guns? (Gallup)
Majority Of Voters Say Climate Change Is An Emergency (Quinnipiac)
Too early for pumpkin spice?
Pumpkin Spice Survey (Accelerant)
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2020 Climate
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
3-Way Lead as Dem 2020 Picture Shifts (Monmouth)
John Anzalone tweet
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Latest 2020 General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)
Issue of the Week: The Economy
Consumer Confidence Index (The Conference Board)
Poll finds a pessimistic America despite current economic satisfaction (NBC News / Wall Street Journal)
All Top Dems Beat Trump As Voters' Economic Outlook Dims (Quinnipiac)
Roughly Half of Trump Voters Would at Least Partially Blame Him for a Recession (Morning Consult)
Most Important Problem (Gallup)
Back to School!
2019 Back-to-School Shopping (Deloitte)
How Did You Feel On Your First Day Back To School When You Were A Kid? (News Center Maine)
This episode of The Pollster was sponsored by The Election Ride Home podcast.
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Trump and Democrats 2020
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Democratic Candidates (RealClear Politics)
Elizabeth Warren Had Another Very Good Debate (HuffPo)
Warren Up, Harris Down, But Biden Leads Among U.S. Dems (Quinnipiac)
Gun Laws
Who's to blame for mass shootings? On that, some bipartisan agreement (USA Today/Ispos)
Presidential Power
Republicans Now Are More Open to the Idea of Expanding Presidential Power (Pew Research Center)
Trust in Science
Trust and Mistrust in Americans’ Views of Scientific Experts (Pew Research)
Fun Poll: Are these cities midwestern?
David Montgomery wonders how people think Jacksonville, Florida is in the Midwest (and Kristen blames it all on College Football)
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2020 Presidential Campaigns
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
Interest still high in second Dem debate (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
Shifting Democratic Lines (Echelon Insights)
Conflicted About Trump: The Americans Disapproving of President Trump While Giving Him Credit on the Economy (Navigator)
Black and Latinx Views
Views on the economy aren’t monolithic (Groundwork Collaborative)
Tech
Americans have become much less positive about tech companies’ impact (Pew Research)
Song of the Summer!
Song of the Summer Rankings (LyricFind, with Billboard)
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Trump & The Squad
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign (New York Times / The Upshot)
Most Americans disagree with Trump's "go back" tweets (CBS News / YouGov)
Majority of voters say ‘send her back’ chants were racist (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
Mueller Testimony
Democrats becoming increasingly skeptical of fairness of Russia probe (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
Trust in America
Many Americans think declining trust in the government and in each other makes it harder to solve key problems (Pew Research)
Boris Johnson
How do you feel about Boris Johnson becoming leader? (YouGov)
Boris Johnson has support of two thirds of Tory voters (Opinium / Observer)
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Trump, “racially infused” tweets, and Democratic Candidates
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets (Reuters)
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
Beto O’Rourke and the Value of Polling
Polling is not evil voodoo magic (Kristen Soltis Anderson in the Washington Examiner)
Polling Faux Pas
Incomplete polling for the Democratic Primary (St. Anselm College)
All The Problems With This Anonymous Poll About Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (HuffPo coverage of a poll reported in Axios)
More General Election Polling
Huge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit? (New York Times, “The Upshot”)
Trump Faces Tough Challenge From Top Democratic Candidates in Election Matchup (WSJ/NBC News)
Immigration
Slim majority supports deportation raids (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
More on Presidential Tweeting
Views of Trump’s Twitter Attack on Four Congresswomen Highly Partisan (Ipsos)
State of the Union and Conspiracies (Economist/YouGov)
Ladysports
Do you think if you were playing your very best tennis, you could win a point off Serena Williams? (YouGov)
We Need To Stop Comparing Serena Williams To Men’s Tennis Players (HuffPo)
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Trump and 2020 Democrats
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics Average)
General Election Polling Average (RealClear Politics Average)
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics Average) POLL AVERAGE
Joe Biden Isn’t The Unequivocal 2020 Democratic Front-Runner Anymore (HuffPo)
CNN has new standards for reporting on polls
CNN's transparency questionnaire for polling standards (CNN)
Personal Finances polls
More Optimism about Personal Finances (AP/NORC)
1 in 4 don’t plan to retire despite realities of aging (AP/NORC)
Tariffs and Trade
Divided Country Wary of Tariffs, Trade, Tech (RealClear Opinion Research)
Veterans
Trump Draws Stronger Support From Veterans Than From the Public on Leadership of U.S. Military (Pew Research)
Women’s World Cup!
Polling: Megan Rapinoe for President? (Public Policy Polling)
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Trump Approval
Trump Approval
Post-Democratic Debate Polling
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Harris and Warren rise and Biden slides after first Democratic debates (SSRS for CNN)
Kamala Harris surges in Iowa as Bernie Sanders suffers after debate (Suffolk University/USA TODAY)
Data from the Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll
Harris Gets Big Debate Bounce While Biden Sinks (Quinnipiac)
Harris Surges After First Democratic Debates (Morning Consult)
Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris Looked Like Winners At The First Debates (HuffPost/YouGov)
Washington Post-ABC News poll
Crisis on the border
Three-quarters of Americans say there's a crisis at the border (SSRS for CNN)
Perceptions of LGBTQ Population
Americans Still Greatly Overestimate U.S. Gay Population (Gallup)
Is America Great Again?
American Pride Hits New Low; Few Proud of Political System (Gallup)
Trump’s July 4th plans
Few Aware of Trump July 4 Speech Plan (Monmouth)
Trends in Fourth of July Foods
What’s In And What’s Out For Fourth Of July Celebrations (Open Mind Strategy for Food Network)
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Democratic Debate Interest
Democratic voters not fully tuned in to 2020 (AP/NORC)
Most Dems interested in first debates, but not excited (Monmouth)
America’s Political Perceptions
Trump approval (RealClear Politics)
New High in U.S. Say Immigration Most Important Problem (Gallup)
American Bridge 4-State rural and small-town voters (Anzalone Liszt Grove Research)
Democrat interest in climate change (Morning Consult for Sierra Club)
Perception Gaps (More In Common with YouGov)
What the heck is wrong with Gen Z?
Nearly half of young adults no longer wear deodorant (YouGov for Schmidt's Naturals)
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President Trump, 2020, and impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
The infamous Fox News Polls (FOX News)
Impeachment Talk (Suffolk University / USA Today)
More Impeachment Talk (NBC/Wall Street Journal)
Trump fires pollsters (CNN)
Would voters consider a woman as president?
Nominating Woman or Minority Come Second to Nominating Candidate Who Can Beat Trump (Ipsos / Daily Beast)
Democrats and Rural Voters
The One Country Projection (One Country Project)
Political Discourse in the U.S.
Public Highly Critical of State of Political Discourse in the U.S. (Pew Research)
CBD Products
Four in 10 Say CBD Oil Products Should Be Over-the-Counter (Gallup)
Salad Days
What is the best green to build your salad around? (PRRI)
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2020 Polling
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
More brutal 2020 poll numbers for Trump (Washington Post)
2020 General Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Democratic Nomination (RealClear Politics)
Mike Gravel's Tweet
It’s PRIDE Month!
Gallup First Polled on Gay Issues in '77. What Has Changed? (Gallup)
America’s Growing Support for Transgender Rights (PRRI)
Lord Ashcroft Polls
Candidates are supposed to pay attention to the voters’ backstory, not the other way round
Women
What Women Are Up Against At Work (LeanIn.org with SurveyMonkey)
How to Talk About Americans’ Opposition to Abortion Bans (Navigator)
Aspiring Pollsters
Sean Trende's son's Survey
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The Mueller Report
Trump Voters Who Heard Mueller Decline To Clear Trump Still Think His Report Clears Trump (HuffPost/YouGov)
Made-up news
Many Americans Say Made-Up News Is a Critical Problem That Needs To Be Fixed (Pew Research)
Millennial, Gen Z, and Gen X voters
Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X outvoted older generations in 2018 midterms (Pew Research)
America’s moral values
Americans Say U.S. Moral Values Not Good and Getting Worse (Gallup)
The future of abortion
A majority of Americans think abortion will still be legal in 30 years, but with some restrictions (Pew Research)
Democrats and “women’s issues”
A growing number of Democratic voters are prioritizing gender-related issues (Morning Consult via Vox)
The census and citizenship
The Fate of Pluralism in a Divided Nation (PRRI)
Trump Approval
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Sen. Michael Bennet’s qualification for Democratic debates
Steve Kornacki's tweet
Patrick Ruffini's tweet
Summer Vacation
More Americans are skipping summer vacations this year
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Trump
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Trump Character Ratings Improved, but Still a Weakness (Gallup)
Dem (and GOP?) Primary
Democratic Dividing Lines (Echelon Insights)
Nearly Half of Democrats Say the Best Age for a President Is ‘In Their 50s’ (Pew Research)
Economic satisfaction, Capitalism, and Socialism
Framing the Debate on the Economy and Presidential Transparency (Navigator)
Black community survey
More Black than Blue: Politics and Power in the 2019 Black Census (Black Futures Lab)
Brits support Trump visit in the UK
Brits support Trump visit (YouGov via Politico EU)
Swimming Pools, Tuna Stars
Around 3 in 10 adults haven't swam in more than 10 years (John West)
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AAPOR ConferenceExit Poll ShowdownEvery Methodology Is Terrible AlwaysProbability Is Fake NewsTrump and Democrats 2020
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Latest 2020 General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)
Fox News Poll 5/16
Biden Is Only Contender With Positive Score (Quinnipiac)
Most Democrats Are Fine With Their Candidates Doing Fox News Town Halls (Morning Consult/Politico)
Black Voters and Gender Identity Politics
New poll shows black voters want 2020 candidates with big policy plans, not just big names (BlackPAC via Vox)
Who White Democrats Vote For In 2020 Could Be Shaped By Why They Think Clinton Lost (FiveThirtyEight)
Abortion Laws
Majority of Americans don't want Roe v. Wade overturned (CBS News)
Ariel Edwards-Levy Tweet Here’s Why Alabama’s New Abortion Law Is So Unpopular (HuffPo/YouGov)
The Economy...and Socialism?
Americans' View of Job Market Hits New High (Gallup)
Four in 10 Americans Embrace Some Form of Socialism (Gallup)
Australian Election
The eight charts that help explain why the Coalition won the 2019 Australian election (The Guardian)
2019 Australia election in 11 charts (BBC)
Game Of Thrones...for the last time?
What Game of Thrones Watchers Think Ahead of Final Episode (Firehouse Strategies / Optimus)
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Poll of the Week
Are You Secretly a Millennial? (The New York Times)
2020 primaries
Bullock hires senior staffers ahead of likely presidential run (The Hill)
What traits are Democrats prioritizing in 2020 candidates? (CBS News / YouGov)
Maryland GOP voters widely favor Trump over Larry Hogan for White House (Gonzales Research & Media Services via The Washington Post)
Less Than Half in U.S. Would Vote for a Socialist for President (Gallup)
Political Intelligence (Morning Consult)
Trump
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Americans' support for impeaching Trump rises (Reuters/Ipsos)
Speaking with Journalists
It’s more common for white, older, more-educated Americans to have spoken with local journalists (Pew Research)
Game of Thrones (SPOILER ALERT)
Here’s Who ‘Game of Thrones’ Fans Think Is Most Likely to Die in the Final Season (Morning Consult)
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Poll of the week
New Navigator Survey
Trump and Democrats’ Enthusiasm
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Democrats lose their enthusiasm advantage (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)
Voter Approval Rising for Trump’s Handling of the Economy (Wall Street Journal/NBC News)
AG Barr and the Mueller Report
Little support for Barr’s handling of Mueller report (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
2020 Campaigns
The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)
Latest National General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)
Monmouth on Capitalism vs. Socialism
Socialism not seen as compatible with American values, but opinion is not overwhelmingly negative (Monmouth University)
Foreign Policy
America Adrift: How the U.S. Foreign Policy Debate Misses What Voters Really Want (GBAO/Center for American Progress)
Voters Want an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy (Just Not Trump’s) (GBAO/Center for American Progress)
Democrats are playing down foreign policy. (GBAO/Center for American Progress)
Pew on Diversity
Americans See Advantages and Challenges in Country’s Growing Racial and Ethnic Diversity (Pew Research)
Pew on Methodology
When Online Survey Respondents Only ‘Select Some That Apply’ (Pew Research)
Met Gala Dress
Which Musician Had Your Favorite Met Gala 2019 Look? (Billboard)
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Viva la Border
Percentage of Democrats who see border ‘crisis’ jumps 17 points since January amid spike in migrant families (Washington Post / ABC News)
A poll found Mexicans think relations with the U.S. are better than before. Ignoring Trump may be the secret. (Chicago Council on Global Affairs / Buendía & Laredo)
Trump, Mueller, and Impeachment
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll on impeachment
CNN/SSRS Poll on impeachment and Trump approval
31% believe Trump is exonerated after Mueller report, 56% oppose impeachment (ABC News/Washington Post)
Democrats for President 2020
Democratic Dividing Lines (Echelon Insights omnibus)
Democrats largely uncommitted to 2020 candidates (Washington Post / ABC News)
Biden solidifies front-runner status with post-announcement bump (CNN / SSRS)
The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)
Biden Surging Among Democrats In Presidential Race (Quinnipiac)
New Hampshire Marginals (Suffolk University)
Latest 2020 General Election Polls (RealClear Politics)
Stress in America
Americans' Stress, Worry and Anger Intensified in 2018 (Gallup)
Game of Thrones Predictions
Our “Game Of Thrones” Poll Accurately Predicted The First Death In The Battle Of Winterfell (Quartz)
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Trump Approval
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Mueller Report
The conservative talking point of “exoneration” has failed to break through (Navigator Research via Politico)
2020 Democrat Race
Bernie Takes Lead for Democratic Nomination, Mayor Pete On The Move (Emerson Polling)
If Daily Kos decided the presidential race, it would be a four-person race (Daily KOS)
New From Pew
Sharp Rise in the Share of Americans Saying Jews Face Discrimination (Pew Research)
Little Public Support for Reductions in Federal Spending (Pew Research)
Parenting & Society
School Safety and Shootings (AP-NORC)
Game of Thrones
This Game Of Thrones Poll Says A LOT About The 2020 Election (Anvil Strategies)
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The Donald Abides
Amid the tumult of the Trump era, the constant: His approval rating (Washington Examiner)
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
2020 Polling?
Biden tops Democratic field after rough week (Politico / Morning Consult)
Women voters could give women candidates a boost in the Democratic primary (Morning Consult)
The Fairness of Taxes
Growing Partisan Divide Over Fairness of the Nation’s Tax System (Pew Research)
Few Americans think they’re getting a Trump tax cut (NBC / Wall Street Journal)
Twitter Dems vs Voting Dems
The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate (The Upshot)
Happy Happy Dog Dog
Dog owners are much happier than cat owners (General Social Survey reported by The Washington Post))
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Trump
Trump’s Approval Rating (RealClear Politics)
Views of Trump’s personal traits, job approval (Pew Research)
Most want to see Mueller report released (Ariel Edwards-Levy)
Changing America
Jason McGrath of GBAO talks about Lightfoot in Chicago
Voters Say Scrap Elite School Test in NY (Quinnipiac)
On Equal Pay Day 2019, lack of awareness persists (SurveyMonkey)
2020
Among all voters, half say they are ‘very uncomfortable’ with Trump for 2020 (NBC News / Wall Street Journal)
18-29-year-olds Likely Democratic Primary Voters Prefer Sanders (Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School)
The World
Large Majorities in Both Parties Say NATO Is Good for the U.S. (Pew Research)
NCAA Basketball Final Four
Michigan State has America’s support after beating Duke to reach Final Four (and Kristen loves J.J. Redick)
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Trump and the Mueller Report
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Voters want Mueller report released, but will it change views? (FOXNews, pre-report delivery)
CNN/SSRS Poll (post-report delivery)
U.S. Voters Want To See Mueller Report (Quinnipiac, both pre- and post-summary delivery)
Nearly half still think Trump obstructed Russian probe (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
Despite report findings, almost half of Americans think Trump colluded with Russia (Reuters/Ipsos)
These Ordinary Americans Discussed the Mueller Investigation. Here's Their Surprising
Consensus (GBAO Strategies for Protect The Investigation, reported in Time)
Trump, Tweets, and White Supremacy (Quinnipiac)
2020 and the Future
Iowa 2020: Biden and Sanders neck and neck (Emerson)
The Spirit of South Bend (Kristen Soltis Anderson in Forum Axess)
Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts (Pew)
Voters prefer popular vote over Electoral College (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
Drunk Shopping
The 2019 Drunk Shopping Census (The Hustle)
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Poll of the week: Fox Republicans and Bill Maher
GOP Fox News Viewers Say Trump Is Best President Ever (Navigator)
Trump and White Nationalism
Trump Favorable/Unfavorable (RealClear Policy)
Fewer Than 20 Percent Of Americans Say Trump Opposes White Nationalism (HuffPost/YouGov)
The Mueller Report
60 percent have some confidence in fairness of Mueller probe (The Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)
Half of Americans say Trump is victim of a 'witch hunt' as trust in Mueller erodes (USA TODAY/Suffolk University)
2020
Harris climbs in the Democratic race, as enthusiasm starts high for both parties (CNN/SSRS)
For 2020, Most Democrats Prefer an Experienced Political Insider (Morning Consult/Politico)
Sanders Tied with Biden; O’Rourke Gets Post-Announcement Bump (Emerson)
Are Independents Real?
Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think (Pew Research)
AOC and Amazon
2/3 of Voters Say Amazon Cancelling Queens HQ Bad for NY (Siena College)
College Admissions
Large majority says college admissions unfairly favor wealthy, well-connected (Suffolk University/USA Today)
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Trump and a GOP primary?
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Weld, Hogan lag far behind Trump in GOP contest (Monmouth)
Iowa Poll: Registered Republicans like Trump but 40 percent want a GOP challenger (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom)
O Canada!
Canada Votes 2019 Poll Tracker (CBCNews)
Across the Pond
Most Britons see no improvement in May's latest plan (Sky News)
Half of UK voters want Theresa May to resign (Politico)
On a scale from 1 to 10, how much do the numbers used in survey scales really matter? (Pew Research)
Dame It All To Hell
Republicans see equality for women. Democrats don't. (Politico/Morning Consult)
Witty Women Are Less Likely To Get Promoted Than Men (University of Arizona)
St. Patrick’s Day Party Cities
2019’s Best Cities for St. Patrick’s Day Celebrations (WalletHub)
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How are things shaking out for Trump’s emergency declaration?
U.S. Voters Oppose Trump Emergency Powers On Wall (Quinnipiac)
60 percent of Americans oppose Trump's emergency declaration to fund wall (NBC/WSJ via The Hill)
Trump gets some good news from an NBC poll but bad news from Quinnipiac
2020 race will be uphill for Trump (NBC/WSJ)
64 Percent Of U.S. Voters Say Trump Committed A Crime (Quinnipiac)
Impeachment Support Inches Up (Monmouth)
Dem 2020 Catch-up: “a lover not a fighter”
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
2020 race will be uphill for Trump, but he has strong party loyalty (NBC/WSJ)
A Survey Of Florida Voters (Bendixen & Amandi)
Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke Tie Trump In Texas (Quinnipiac)
2020 Primaries (Morning Consult)
Democratic Voters Would Rather Have a Leader Who Heals Than Fights (Morning Consult)
The 2019 Infinite Dial! (Edison Research & Triton Digital)
Polling the pollsters...How is the political campaign industry doing? (PSB Research for Campaigns & Elections)
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Trump Job Approval
Stabilizing, but what does it mean? (Real Clear Politics)
The Manafort sentencing memo indicates 75 pages of polling data were shared with Konstantin Kilimnik, so we speculate wildly what it might have been.
Kristin’s Washington Examiner column
2020 Democrats, a Deep Dive
Fewer than 3-in-10 Dems have 'strong opinion' about 2020 nominee (Politico / Morning Consult)
The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)=
Democratic Voters’ Second Choices Show How Fluid The 2020 Primary Race Is (FiveThirtyEight analysis of Morning Consult tracking poll)
Releasing the Mueller Report Publicly
Majority wants Mueller report released to the public (Politico / Morning Consult)
Has there been a shift in attitudes on abortion?
Americans’ Opinions on Abortion (Marist for Knights of Columbus)
A new poll shows a spike in pro-life sentiment. Don’t panic — or declare victory. (Davis Byler in The Washington Post)
Pew switches to online polls
What our transition to online polling means for decades of phone survey trends (Pew Research)
TAKE A NAP!
Poll: National Public Sleeping Day (News12 Long Island)
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Civics education is struggling
Happy Presidents Day! History is hard (Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation)
Trump job approval, Mr 44%! And the national emergency becomes...more popular?
President Trump Job Approval (Real Clear Politics)
6-In-10 Disapprove Of Trump's Declaration Of A National Emergency (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist)
And the Oscar for Top Issue goes to…
Record High Name Government as Most Important Problem (Gallup)
How with the 2020 polls influence the Dem debates?
The details for the first 2 presidential primary debates (Politico)
Biden maintains lead in 2020 Democratic field (Emerson)
Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders have edge in 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary (UMass)
Understanding Shifts in Democratic Party Ideology (Gallup)
How would people feel if their child married someone of the other party or…?
American Democracy in Crisis: The Fate of Pluralism in a Divided Nation (PRRI)
Teens and anxiety
Most U.S. Teens See Anxiety and Depression as a Major Problem Among Their Peers (Pew Research)
OSCARS!
Oscars 2019 — Best Motion Picture (IMDB)
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Trump’s numbers have bounced back!
Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable (Real Clear Politics)
The work of Mueller and “Mister Peepers”!
Mueller Poll Shows Very Few Republicans Believe Russia Interfered In 2016 Election (HuffPost/YouGov)
Most Americans in new poll support Democratic investigations of Trump administration (Global Strategy Group /GBA Strategies for Restore Public Trust)
More voters back Mueller probe, say it has 'uncovered crimes' (Navigator Research)
Mister Peepers, the Ballad of Rod Rosenstein (song by Ben Folds)
It's time to start looking at the 2020 polls a little more seriously.
Announced/Potential Democratic Presidential Candidate Name Recognition Results (Saint Anselm College / New Hampshire Institute of Politics)
Which 2020 Democrats Already Have A Fan Base — And Which Don’t (FiveThirtyEight)
National Tracking Poll (Morning Consult / Politico)
“Well Virginia they didn’t give you quite enough information!”
About a third of Americans say blackface in a Halloween costume is acceptable at least sometimes (Pew Research)
Virginians are split on governor’s fate amid blackface scandal, poll shows (Washington Post/Schar School)
How people are feeling about their finances.
Americans' Confidence in Their Finances Keeps Growing (Gallup)
Valentine’s Day!
Three Months’ Salary for an Engagement Ring? For Most People, It’s More Like Two Weeks (Morning Consult for The Upshot)
Men have higher expectations for Valentine’s Day than women (Bankrate)
Celebrating Valentine's Day with your dog? Survey says that's not weird (Rover.com)
One-in-three women have been disappointed in a partner’s Valentine’s Day actions (YouGov)
This is what men and women really want for Valentine’s Day (YouGov)
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The State of the Union...does it ever move numbers? Was Tuesday’s speech the dawning of a new era or a soon-forgotten blip?
Poll: More than half will definitely vote against Trump (Politico/Morning Consult)
Speech audience was most partisan since 2001 (CNN/SSRS)
Most viewers approved of Trump's second State of the Union address (CBS News)
And what of 2020? With more and more contenders jumping in, we will take a look at Trump’s re-election prospects and what we can know about the Dem field.
President Trump Job Approval (Real Clear Politics)
Most Democrats say bring on Biden (CNN/SSRS)
California Dems Excited About Biden And Harris (Quinnipiac)
Wealth taxes, Medicare for all, and the Green New Deal are the big policy pushes from Dems...we will look at some new polling on wealth taxes.
Warren’s Proposed Tax on Wealthy Draws More Support Than Ocasio-Cortez’s (Morning Consult)
There’s been a lot of apologizing lately. Do people think public officials should have to apologize for things like blackface? And speaking of apologies, how would the Brits do it?
Only 58 percent of Americans oppose blackface (YouGov via Washington Post)
Most Brits think “I’m sorry for any offence caused” is a proper apology (YouGov)
Big game ads! What were the favorites?
2019 Ad Meter Results (USAToday)
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Producers note: Margie was in a taxi and Kristen was out of the studio as well so the audio quality of this episode is well below our usual standards but we wanted to get the episode to you no matter what!
The bleeding has stopped but the patient could use a transfusion...how will Roger Stone and the kick-the-can Shutdown delay impact POTUS numbers?
ProtectTheInvestigation.org (GBS Strategies)
America is heading in the wrong direction (NBC/WSJ)
President Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)
President Trump’s marks on the economy slip (The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)
Socialism...so hot right now, or like trying to make fetch happen? How many early aughts movie references can I jam into this section?
2019 World Economic Forum (Axios/SurveyMonkey)
Turning up the 2020 talk on our 200th episode...Can a primary challenge to Trump survive? How much traction could a Howard Schultz candidacy get? What are Dems looking for?
Inside Democratic coalition, three groups show fissures (NBC News/Wall Street Journal )
Democrats’ 2020 presidential contest is wide open as danger mounts for Trump (Washington Post/ABC)
Josh Krashauer tweet about Schultz poll
SNACK INDEX!
First-Ever Frito-Lay U.S. Snack Index Reveals Super Bowl Snacking Picks (Frito-Lay North America/Morning Consult)
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It’s Margie’s Birthday! Please donate to World Central Kitchen to help feed furloughed Federal workers!
The shutdown continues to take its toll on federal workers and begins to take a more serious toll on the President’s political standing.
Pelosi has edge over Trump on budget negotiations (CBS News)
Shutdown, Russia drive Trump to all-time high disapproval (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
6 in 10 Americans blame Trump for shutdown (Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)
Voters see shutdown as bigger problem than border situation (FOX News)
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll
How un/popular is Donald Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
President Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)
Cardi B reminds us that the last shutdown was about healthcare. Where do voters stand on ACA and its alternatives like Medicare for all?
Public Opinion on Single-Payer, National Health Plans, and Expanding Access to Medicare Coverage (Kaiser Family Foundation)
More Americans are saying climate change is personally important to them.
Global Warming Concerns Rise Among Americans (Yale University and George Mason University)
The “Brexit” is when you tell people you’re leaving but don’t actually go anywhere. The opposite of that? Ghosting. What do people think is acceptable “ghosting” on Tinder?
How Do You Calculate The Emotional Cost Of Ghosting Someone? (BuzzFeed News)
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SHUTDOWN (and the Wall)
We are now in the longest shutdown in the history of the US government. Is either side feeling political pain yet? And how widespread is the pain everyday people and government workers are feeling? And what’s the shutdown over? The Wall of course. Still unpopular, but as people move into their partisan camps, different polls tell different stories about whether the wall is becoming more or less popular overall.
Americans blame Trump and GOP much more than Democrats for shutdown (WaPo/ABC News)
Half of Americans fault Trump for shutdown (Reuters)
Most Americans Hold Trump Responsible For Government Shutdown (HuffPo/YouGov)
Most Border Wall Opponents, Supporters Say Shutdown Concessions Are Unacceptable (Pew)
Voters support Democratic proposal to reopen parts of the government that do not involve border security (Quinnipiac)
Trump Approval (and Pelosi)
ThePresident’s job approval trends downward at a slightly faster clip, as Nancy Pelosi proves my “everybody loves a winner” theory of politics correct.
Huffpo Tracker
Real Clear Politics Tracker
Trump, Congress Job Approval Mostly Steady Amid Shutdown (Gallup)
Opposing Trump is making Nancy Pelosi more popular (WaPo article on Civiqs and Gallup polls)
2020
Deep, Lasting Partisan Splits on Immigration, Investigating President Trump (GW Poll)
Generation Z
Defining generations: Where Millennials end and Generation Z begins (Pew)
With The Greatest Respect
Half Of Americans 'can’t Tell When A Brit Is Calling Them An Idiot’ (YouGov UK)
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Manafort
Why it would it—or wouldn’t it—be a big deal for a foreign intelligence operation to have internal polling data from a campaign?
Shutdown
Voters blame Trump, GOP for shutdown (POLITICO/Morning Consult)
Trump Has Lost Ground In The Shutdown Blame Game (FiveThirtyEight)
Congressional Priorities
Government Gets an Upgrade (Navigator)
Americans' Long List for Congress Spans Education to Income (Gallup)
2020
Elizabeth Warren wins the first Daily Kos 2020 Presidential Straw Poll (Daily Kos)
Daily Kos Democratic Straw Poll, inaugural edition!
American Ideology by Gallup
U.S. Still Leans Conservative, but Liberals Keep Recent Gains
Americans Continue to Embrace Political Independence
#MeToo
Celebrity Soapbox on #MeToo Issues Creates Positive Change, Plurality Says (Morning Consult)
Doggos
Republicans Like Dogs More Than Democrats (YouGov/The Economist)
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Happy New Year! We're back from the holiday break, with lots of (good and bad) holiday stories...about animals eating the wrong things.
Poll of the Week
What do Democrats want in 2020? (USA TODAY/Suffolk University)
The Shutdown
Americans Give Everyone Negative Marks For The Government Shutdown (HuffPo/YouGov)
Federal Employees Overwhelmingly Oppose Shutdown (Government Business Council & GovExec.com)
47% of Americans blame Trump for government shutdown (Reuters/Ipsos)
Trump Approval(HuffPo)
Climate Change
Consensus emerges in climate change debate (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)
How American Thinking Has (And Hasn’t) Changed In 80 Years (HuffPo/YouGov)
New Years Resolutions (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist)
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Kristen speaks with Patrick Ruffini about Echelon Insights' Middle America Project, which ranks every county in the U.S. on how representative it is of the country as a whole.
They discuss how the typical American community isn’t a small town that voted for Donald Trump to counterbalance Hillary Clinton’s lopsided margin in the cities. By definition, it’s something in between. This usually means that it’s a small city with surrounding suburbs, mainly located in the Northeast and Midwest, that not only was closely contested in 2016 but closely resembles the social and demographic characteristics of the country as a whole.
Kristen and Patrick also talk about the accuracy of election polling and the "new" tech that drives every election.
You can subscribe to Patrick's newsletter at EchelonInsights.com/TheIntersection.
The Pollsters is on hiatus next week but will be back in 2019! Happy holidays!
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This week The Pollsters welcome Abby Livingston, bureau chief for the Texas Tribune, to talk about her recent article in Politico Magazine, "The Hardest Glass Ceiling in Politics".
The somewhat controversial article addresses the sexism challenges faced by women who work as politics consultants. Kristen and Margie share some of their own experiences with Abby and dig in to the journalistic methods and insights she brought to the project.
This is ann important issue and we're grateful to Abby for taking it on.
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Holiday Polls
Most Americans don't think that "Die Hard" is a Christmas movie (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)
Personal Importance of Hanukkah Varies by Denomination among Jewish Americans (PRRI)
Trump, Democrats, and the USA
Trump Job Approval (HuffPo)
Trump's Political Risk Spreads to Small-Town America (Selzer & Co./Grinnell College)
Democrats Are Divided On The Ideological Future Of Their Party (HuffPo/YouGov)
Americans Not Optimistic About Trump, Democrats Cooperating (Gallup)
Democrats Lead Surge in Belief U.S. Should Be World Leader (Gallup)
Parenting and Family
Millennial Parent and Education (Echelon Insights)
My marriage? Great! Yours? Not so much. (Brookings Institution analysis of American Family Survey by Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy/Deseret News/YouGov)
The Dog Poop Blues
Is it OK to put your dog's poop in someone else's trash can? (Coloradoan)
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Poll of the Week:
Results of the TIME Person of the Year Reader's Poll (BTS WINS!)
Trumplandia and Political Divisions
Trump Approval (HuffPo)
Few Expect Country to Become United (Monmouth)
Americans Want the New Congress to Provide a Check on the White House, Follow Facts in Investigations (Navigator)
Many Americans Are Giving Trump The Benefit Of The Doubt On Manufacturing Jobs (HuffPo/YouGov)
Republicans and Women
The Republican Party and Women in Politics (DemocracyFund Voice)
The Young and The Old
Teens who are constantly online are just as likely to socialize with their friends offline (Pew Research)
People want to live longer, but maybe not to 100 (Axios/SurveyMonkey)
Critical Thinking
87% say they’re open to opposing views, but only 25% seek them out (Reboot Foundation)
Unwelcome Guests
First sign a guest has overstayed his or her welcome? (CantonRep.com)
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#191: A Tale of Two Exit Polls
First: Kristen has a new show on SiriusXM but The Pollsters will still be here for your data geek love!
Civility & Division
Most Democrats see Republicans as racist, sexist (Axios/Survey Monkey)
Midterm Follow-up
A Mandate for Democrats? (CNN/SSRS)
Public Wants Congress to be a Check on Trump (Monmouth)T
rump approval (HuffPo)
2020 (Already? Really?)
Trump's 2020 woman problem (Axios/Survey Monkey)
Biden, Bernie, Beto lead 2020 Dem field (Politico/Morning Consult)
Exit Polling Is Changing
Edison, the historically popular choice
AP VoteCast, the new kid on the block
Thanksgiving
FavoriteThanksgiving Pies and Activities (The Pioneer Woman)
The Pollsters is taking next week off. From all of us to all of you, have a very Happy Thanksgiving!
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The 2018 Midterm elections are over (mostly) and things turned out much like the pollsters (and The Pollsters) expected, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans making gains in the Senate. While Democrats didn't win some close races, they still managed to do well in legislative chambers.
The Pollsters grade the performance of polling across the country in this election and recognize that there are several high profile races where, even though they were within the margin of error, there are likely to be questions about polling reliability.
There are a lot of data yet to sift through and there are sure to be post-election polls in the coming days, so be sure to come back next week to get our analysis of all the post-election numbers. One new poll: American Jewish Voters Strongly Oppose Trump, conducted by GBA Strategies, commissioned by J Street.
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#189: Scary Midterms and Fortnite Costumes
Poll of the Week
Views of voting access linked to opinion on diversity in the U.S. (Pew Research)
Youth
Harvard IOP Youth Poll Fall 2018 (Institute of Politics, Harvard)
Millennials Turnout (NBC/GenForward)
Trump and Republicans
Job Approval (Huffington Post)
Partisan Polarization Dominates Trump Era (PRRI)
2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)
Women and the Economy
Red-Hot Economy? Women Aren’t Convinced (New York Times)
Halloween
Most Popular Halloween Costumes 2018 (Google Trends)
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In this very special episode, we're joined by Republican House race expert Liesl Hickey and Democratic House race expert Ali Lapp, hosts of the House Talk with Ali and Liesl podcast. We cover how political experts view house race polls compared to the Generic Ballot and the specifics of the upcoming midterm election.
How much is President Trump helping or hurting Republican candidates? The Democrats appear likely to take back the House, but by how much? What are the implications of the massive gender gap that the GOP faces among women, and is this the start of a long-term trend or just a temporary situation?
Margie, Kristen, Ali, and Liesl answer all these questions and more in this week on The Pollsters!
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#187: Strong Feelings on Immigration and TV Reboots
Midterms & Trump Approval
Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall (CNBC)
Voters say they are more likely to cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections (Washington Post/ABC News)
2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)
Trump Job Approval (Huffington Post)
2020 Democratic Primary
More see Trump win likely as Biden leads crowded Democratic field (CNN/SSRS)
Immigration
Varied and Changing Attitudes on Immigration in America (Echelon Insights/BGA Strategies for Voters Study Group)
Voter Identity & IssuesHidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape (More In Common)
Young Voters Might Actually Show Up At The Polls This Year (FiveThirtyEight)
Little Partisan Agreement on the Pressing Problems Facing the U.S. (Pew Research)
Television RebootsTV Reboots May Be Losing Their Luster With Viewers (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)
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Midterms
Generic Congressional (Real Clear Politics)
2018 Midterm Voters: Issues and Political Values (Pew Research)
Gender Differences (CNN/SSRS)
Senate
Latest Senate Polls (Real Clear Politics)
Texas - Tennessee - New Jersey (CBS)
Nevada (NBC/Marist)
Arizona (ABC-15 / OH Predictive Insights)
North Dakota (FOX News)
Florida (Mason-Dixon)
House
House Battleground (Washington Post - Schar School)
Kavanaugh
Economist/YouGov
Majority oppose Kavanaugh, but his popularity grows with GOP (CNN)
Trump
Approval (HuffPo)
Polling Strategies
Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files (Pew Research)
Youth Poll (But not enough about Taylor Swift!)
Young voters energized for midterms (Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement)
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Poll of the Week
Trump Gets Negative Ratings for Many Personal Traits, but Most Say He Stands Up for His Beliefs (Pew Research)
“How you feel about GOP loyalty to Trump probably depends on your age” (Kristen in The Washington Examiner)
Kavanaugh Confirmation
Kavanaugh opinion hardens along partisan lines (Politico Morning Consult)
Brett Kavanaugh, Christine Blasey Ford hearing spurs more division (CBS News)
Opposition to Kavanaugh grows after Senate hearing (Reuters/Ipsos)
More U.S. Voters Say Don't Confirm Kavanaugh (Quinnipiac)
Midterms check-in with Optimus Election Modeling
Events with 30% chances do sometimes happen...about one out of three times.
DecisionDesk HQ by OptimusHouse
Generic Polls (Real Clear Politics)
Trump Approval
Trump Approval (HuffPo)
Coffee Is SOOOO Important!
Survey Confirms Coffee Makes the World a Better Place (Nestlé/Morning Consult)
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184: New Florida Midterm Polls
Florida Governor & SenatePoll: Andrew Gillum leads DeSantis by 4, Rick Scott and Bill Nelson tied (Tampa Bay Times, UFN)Poll: Democrats have narrow lead in top Florida contests (NCBNews.com, Marist)
KavanaughMajority of Americans oppose Kavanaugh nomination if Ford’s allegation is true, poll says (PBS, NPR, Marist)Voters in Battleground Districts Are Divided on Kavanaugh (The Upshot)Record number of voters oppose Kavanaugh nomination (FOX News)
Women, Leadership, and GenderViews on the state of gender and leadership and obstacles for women (Pew Research Center)The State of Gender Equality for U.S. Adolescents (Plan International, PerryUndem)Major gaps in views of women in politics by gender, party affiliation (NBCNews, Wall Street Journal)
Trump and the GOPTrump Job Approval (Huffington P0st)Republican Party Favorability Highest in Seven Years (Gallup)2018 Generic Congressional Vote (Real Clear Politics)Democrats hold the advantage in November's elections (NBCNews, Wall Street Journal)
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#183: Spring is a Lie, This Fall is Fakakta
Poll of the WeekRepublicans, Democrats See Opposing Party as More Ideological Than Their Own (Pew)
KavanaughCNN poll (pre-Dr. Ford)
The Week In MidtermsHouse GenericNate Cohn’s Poll FactorySenate RacesMontana (CBS)Missouri (CBS)Arizona & Tennessee (CNN)
The Week In TrumpJob Approval (HuffPo)Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to name Trump as a reason for their pick in congressional elections (Washington Post)
New Voter Study Group Papers! Why Americans' Desires for a Third Party Are Unlikely to Come TrueReligious Trump VotersAmericans' Economic Woes are Hurting Trump
Goodbye, Summer.Most Popular Season Coming to an End (Gallup)
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No, You Can’t Have Partials
Poll of the Week: Crying
Red States/Blue SenatorsNBC/Marist poll: It's a neck-and-neck Senate race in TennesseePoll: High-profile Missouri Senate race locked in a dead heatNBC/Marist poll: Democrat Joe Donnelly has slight edge in Indiana Senate race
TrumpHuffPost: Trump Job Approval
QPac: U.S. Voters Believe Anonymous Trump Charges 2-1CNN Poll: Trump approval down 6 points in a month, hits low among independents
Nate Cohn is either a lunatic or a geniusPolling in Real Time: The 2018 Midterm Elections
NRA BrandNRA Brand Suffers Lasting DamageNRA Slipping With Voters, Though Many Have Moved on From Gun Control
9/11Defending against terrorism has remained a top policy priority for Americans since 9/11Ariel Edwards-Levy Twitter thread on post-9/11 polling
HurricanesHurricane: Despite Irma, millions of Floridians wouldn’t evacuate from powerful storm heading their way, survey finds
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Poll of the week:
WP/ABC poll on the Democratic advantage in the midterms
President Trump:
Job Approval
Generic Ballot
Brett Kavanaugh (last name sung to the tune of Van Halen’s “Panama”):
Fox News Poll
CNN Poll
WPA Intelligence Memo
Press Freedom:
Building a Narrative Toward Trust: Echelon Insights + Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
KFF Poll on corruption, healthcare, and the most important issue of the campaigns
Notre Dame and Michigan are Trash (not really, everyone hates Alabama)
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Check us out @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters
Poll of the week:
Pew. Maybe we are entitled to our own facts?
Hot primaries!
RCP: Florida average
RCP: Arizona average
Campaign-mania
RCP Generic
538 Forecasts
Trumplandia
HP: Trump's approval
Pew: The something-something of Trump expectations:
HP on the slow news day last week
YouGov Toplines
USA Today/Suffolk on investigation
Pumpkin Spice Latte
ABC News 4, Charleston, SC
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With Kristen away, we recorded this great interview with a guy who's been everywhere--Bruce Mehlman. What can he tell us about bipartisanship? Find him @bpmehlman.
14th & G podcast
Tech CEO Council
Polling memo
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Check out some past polling on the investigation:
Navigator Research
Morning Consult/Politico
CNN
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Send your grievances & complaints to: @ksoltisanderson @margieomero & @thepollsters.
Hey, need contacts? Get a discount here: --->>
https://www.simplecontacts.com/pollsters
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Midterm mania: OH-12, KS, and the generic
Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election
RCP Average.
Emerson memo.
Monmouth Crosstabs.
GBA Memo 7/262018
Generic Congressional Vote
President Trump Job Approval
Trump defectors! You might be surprised how FEW there are…
Pew: For Most Trump Voters, “Very Warm” Feelings for him Endured [EMBARGOED LINK]
War with the media rages onward
Republicans: Give Trump the Power to Shut Down Media This is not new.Ipsos Poll on Sentiment Towards American Media
Everybody colludes. Don’t they?
40% of Republicans say Russia election meddling isn't a big deal Trump Jr.’s Meeting Was Wrong, Americans Say, But Fewer See It As Out Of The Norm
Local food!
Americans Still Favor Beer Over Other Alcoholic Beverages
Snapshot: Few Americans Vegetarian or Vegan
Most Americans Try to Eat Locally Grown Foods
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Kristen saw a concert. Margie has jet lag. We're both in LA, taking in the kale smoothies & easy living.
I Can’t Go For That
Trump approval (HuffPo)
Poll Of The Week:
Who do you trust? (CBS)
Say It Isn’t So:
Generic ballot (RCP)
California House
CA-50 (Tulchin Research, July 17-23)
CA-48 (Monmouth)
CA-25 (Global Strategy Group, June 29)
Texas Senate
RCP Averages
Texas LYCEUM Poll
Quinnipiac
Florida Senate
It's still tight (Miami Herald)
More
GOP Praise Trump at Record Rates (Wesleyan)
Dem candidates should be bolder on gun control (GBA Strategies)
Wedding Cakes, Same-Sex Marriage, and the Future of LGBT Rights in America (PRRI)
Maneater: Sharks & Politics
Let’s live every week like it’s shark week
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What’s the top issue?
Americans now think immigration is most important problem (Gallup)
Views on Mexico as an ally are also shifting (Gallup)
Latest Navigator: data on Family Separation
Americans’ views on Government Agencies
Growing Partisan Differences in Views of the FBI; Stark Divide over ICE (Pew Research)
Trump’s approval and the General Ballot, post-Helsinki
Trump’s approval is slightly up (Huffpo)
General ballot has Dems chances rising (Real Clear Politics)
Huge GOP majority backs Trump's Putin performance (Axios / SurveyMonkey)
Little public support for Trump in doubting Russian interference (ABC / Washington Post)
Most Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of Putin summit (CBS)
Public gives Trump thumbs-down on Russia (NBC / WSJ)
Lots more data from Navigator on how Americans feel(pre-Helsinki)
Banned Wedding Songs(FiveThirtyEight)
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With so much bad news, @margieomero & @ksoltisanderson talk about Hamilton & ice cream.
Poll of the Week:Spouses Report Earnings (Census) (Full Study)
Trump’s UK ApprovalYouGov/ITV (Crosstabs) - 9th-10th July 2018
A BMG poll for The Independent last week asked Brits if Prime Minister May was right to invite Trump. (Toplines)
NATO (Gallup) ToplinesPew (Spring 2017)Economist/YouGov Americans become more anti-Russian under Trump (NBC)Gallup PollingThe Economist/YouGovTrump approval!RCP538Generic ballot!RCP538SCOTUS The HillGallupIce Cream!Rasmussen: Chocolate (19%), Butter Pecan (16%)YouGov: Chocolate (14%), Vanilla (13%)
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Poll of the Week: Axios/ SurveyMonkey Poll “Democrats’ Senate dreams slip away”
Survey Monkey write-up: “Senate battleground polls show Democrats in a tight spot”
Criticism: Nate Silver (Twitter): The Axios treatment of this poll is basically "How to repeat all the errors the media made when covering polls in 2016, in one chart". But wait until we focus on likely voters.
Changing view of SCOTUS
Pew Research Interpreting Constitution in current times vs Originalists. Are these questions answered by what view will produce the political outcome respondents want? In a vacuum? Growing share of Americans say Supreme Court should base its rulings on what Constitution means today5 facts about the Supreme Court
American Voters Support Roe V. Wade 2-1, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
Dem Candidates Up 9 Points In U.S. House Races
Roe v Wade and abortion
So many ways to ask the question. Pretty clear majorities say don’t overturn. Pollsters can frame questions to take advantage of affirmation bias.
What the polls say about Americans, abortion, and the Supreme Court There are so many other issues beyond Roe.
How will this influence people’s midterm votes?Democrats hope Kennedy’s retirement will make the courts a galvanizing issue for their votersPolling data shows Republicans turned out for Trump in 2016 because of the Supreme CourtA quarter of Republicans voted for Trump to get Supreme Court picks — and it paid off2018 Generic Congressional Vote Trump Job Approval
Americans Are Having Fewer Babies. They Told Us Why.
It’s not that they’re selfish, they just can’t afford it. Where is infertility on this list?
POLL: Did you make it out to see fireworks this Fourth of July holiday? We want our fireworks in our backyard or in the supreme court debate.
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A surprise takedown in NY-14, where there was no polling in the Ocasio-Cortez/Crowley race. Is the shockwave also a bellwether? We cheer women, young and old, rocking the Democratic primaries (70% of open seats going to women over men) and wonder why that’s not happening on the GOP side (30%). We’ve got Westworld, Scandinavia, anger, exhaustion, and days and days of the Red Frickin’ Hen.
Primary Day
As blue as Maryland is, is it a good place to be Larry Hogan?RealClearPolitics Maryland Governor RacePost-U. Md. poll: Jealous, Baker lead in Democratic race overshadowed by HoganWashington Post-University of Maryland poll - 2018 Maryland governor's election - May 29-June 3
New YorkRealClearPolitics: New York 11th District - Republican PrimaryGrimm vs. Donovan NY 11th Republican Primary
Trumplandia
Trump approval rating Majority of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy for the first time: CNBC surveyBy the numbers: Trump’s economic approval ratings hit a new high
2018 Generic Congressional Vote
Polls: Dems lead in three key Senate races
Virginia: GOP Trailing in CD10
West Virginia: Dems Doing Well in Senate, CD03
Midterm Issues
Immigration Gains Steam As A Midterm Issue
Voters More Focused on Control of Congress – and the President – Than in Past Midterms
Images and Ideas to Engage and Persuade
Freedom Rings in Places You Might Not Expect
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Tom Hanks is Not Here for Your Partisan Nonsense
Distinguishing Between Factual and Opinion Statements in the NewsNo one party has a monopoly on ability to distinguish between fact and opinion, but people tend to believe that statements that favor their own opinions are factual.
Family separation pollingLess Than One-Third Of The Public Supports Family SeparationsMajority oppose policy that causes family separation, but Republicans approveAll four outlets show majority oppose the policy, with large party differences. What does support of this unpopular policy mean for Republicans? A quarter of America is ride or die with Donald Trump.
TrumplandiaAmericans are satisfied with Trump's North Korea summithttp://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6b.-.north.korea.pdfTrump Job ApprovalGeneric BallotMelania’s approval rating also decreasesNumbers show that people responded well to the summit. It’s a Thing. A major or minor achievement. Generic ballot shows the spread between Democrats and Republicans continues to grow. Donald and Melania’s approval ratings both drop, but her numbers are much better than her husband’s.
Who doesn’t Approve of Tom Hanks?American Public Does Not See Celebrity Candidates as the AnswerThis one is a head-scratcher. In so many ways.
World CupPoll: World Cup Rivals NBA Finals, World Series in Capturing Young Adults’ AttentionOnly 20% of US adults plan to watch. US men are not in it, but so many pretty men are. And some of them are biters.
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Let’s Talk about the Midterms
Kristen is joined by special guest co-host, Echelon Insights co-founder Patrick Ruffini, to determine who is the goat in this scary movie, who is excited about the midterms, what just happened with North Korea, and what people thought about it before it happened, or didn’t.
Generic ballot / Trump’s approval ratingThe generic ballot is widening back out again in favor of Democrats, but Trump’s approval rating has not taken a hit. Are Dems in the clear? Not so fast.Real Clear Politics: 2018 Generic Congressional VoteTrump Job Approval
NBC/Wall Street Journal PollHow do you talk about the expectation poll when the results of the summit wasn’t a choice? And what were those results anyway? What is the net outcome of alienating allies and befriending dictators in the same week?Voters unsure what to expect from North Korea talks(Morning Consult poll: U.S. Public Skeptical That North Korea Will Get Rid of Nukes After Trump-Kim Summit)What are midterm voters looking for? A check on Trump? Health care is a problem for Republicans. And the gun issue is surprising. More Dems say they are enthusiastic about primaries, and Republicans look like Independents.Trump's support has gotten deeper — but not broaderEconomic satisfaction under Trump isn't helping his party's 2018 chancesDemocratic Women have won 49% of open seat primaries, Republican Women only 16%
California PrimariesCalifornia Results Are Consistent With a Competitive House RaceWhat to Make of the California Primary ResultsOhio PrimariesVIrginia PrimariesFlorida Primaries
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Booze, Weed, and Porn All Up in the Polls!
Margie is lonely on the road, but she’s got polls to keep her company! Especially polls about Michael Avenatti! Trump’s approval ratings hold steady and the Democrats rebound a little in the Generic Ballot. Tariffs have the nation calling flatly, “Anyone?...Anyone?” Women did well in the most recent primaries but do people think they’ll change anything when in office? And, finally, the annual Gallup numbers on what Americans find morally (un)acceptable.
Polls of the Week: What Does The Public Think Of Michael Avenatti?
Quinnipiac University Poll
Echelon Insights Poll
Trumplandia and Generic Ballot
Trump’s approval drops a bit to 44% but data shows a large number of voters want to check him.
Trump Job Approval
NBC/WSJ Poll
Examining Public Support for Checks on Presidential Power
News Fatigue
Pew Research: Almost seven-in-ten Americans have news fatigue
What’s in a Tariff?
Politico Poll: Poll: Few voters think tariffs will help U.S. economyGender in PoliticsRepublicans are less convinced than Democrats that electing more women would make Congress more productive
Morality in AmericaOverwhelming majorities find drinking alcohol and smoking marijuana morally acceptableMore Americans Say Pornography Is Morally Acceptable
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Not That Kind Of Biscuit
We’ve made it past Memorial Day! What the heck is GDPR and why do I keep getting emails about it? Will Kristen trade her personal data for Swedish translations? What about ads for pretty shoes?Who doesn’t love biscuits? Monsters, that’s who. Find us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week: How Adults of Different Ages Feel About Data Privacy?
Kristen isn’t giving up personal data for Swedish translations.
Most U.S. Adults in Poll Unwilling to Share Personal Data for Ads to Keep a Service Free
Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook says they won’t be giving users an option to pay to skip the ads.
Trumplandia
Effectively 45% approval! But what does that mean?
Trump Job Approval
Echelon Insights has some new data on how people feel about Russia and the Trump Campaign, his handling of North Korea and Iran, and his tweeting—but you have to listen to find out what it is!
More new Echelon Insight data you have to listen to get...How do people get their news?How often do people use various social media platforms?Is tech good or bad for society?
Teens and the Internet
Pew Research has new data on Teens, Social Media & Technology 2018
Generic Ballot Update
FiveThirtyEight on who’s winning the race for Congress
Josh Barro & Charles Franklin (separately) wrote about how the reuters/ipsos poll is volatile, making it seem like gen ballot was closing.
Were the 2016 polls accurate?
FiveThirtyEight has the answer!And which pollsters should you trust?
American Communities
Pew: what divides and unites urban, suburban, and rural communities?
That’s a Cookie, Dammit!
YouGov gets the skinny on Brits’ favorite “biscuits”
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Happy Hour, Hot Dogs & Fast Cars
Kristen is back from AAPOR, and she’s pretty pumped. There are some things that just don’t require polls to decide. If things are so good for the Republicans, what’s Trump hiding? Are we the CarTalk of polling?
Poll of the Week: Dumb Internet Controversies
We Asked The American Public To Settle 5 Of The Internet’s Dumbest Debates
Yanny vs Laurel:not as good as the dress
IMHO, older people have no idea.Is a hot dog a sandwich?
Results as confusing as the question.How many spaces after a period?
We’re just getting you worked up.
Hard or soft G? It’s not peanut butter.
Trumplandia
Congress needs to walk and chew gum at the same time. Who is Trump looking out for?
Is this the least dynamic approval in history?
Trump Job Approval
What Americans Think and How to Talk to Them About It
Dem operatives craft Trump-Mueller message for 2018 electionsAmericans give Trump credit for good economy, mixed reviews on N.K.
Generic ballot moves with Trump’s approval rating.
There’s a tightening.
2018 Generic Congressional Vote
Reuters poll shows Republicans leading generic ballot for first time
Public polling in GA Governor primary
How does it match with 76-23 results? Pretty well, as it turns out.
Primary Briefing: Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky And Texas
AJC poll: Most Democrats haven’t decided on governor’s race
Vote in Georgia: Will there be a Republican run-off in Georgia governor's race?
RealClear Politics: Georgia Governor - Democratic Primary
It’s always Infrastructure Week
If only it were Shark WeekWashington Not Paying Enough Attention to Infrastructure
Indy 500 Weekend
The data is almost as old as IndyCar fans
IndyCar, NASCAR,
NHRA Fans Trending Older Compared To Supercross/Motocross
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A Private Bunyan and The World’s Saddest Elephant
Whether or not Mr. 44% deserves a Nobel Peace Prize should not be decided by polls, even if Obama got one. Kristen promises to take notes at AAPOR when AP and Fox News present VoteCast, changing the exit poll game. (Don’t forget Pollsters Nation BEER THING at AAPOR: Let Kristen buy you a beer at Yard House 5-6 PM ON THURSDAY then on to the real parties). We’re Not. A. Lady. Show. Pay no attention to the wedding talk.
TrumplandiaPoll of the Week: Morning Consult + Politico Tracking PollNo matter how you feel about the Iran deal, you are united on the impact.Trump ApprovalIs this just ambient noise? America doesn’t realize that it needs to shower.
Republicans closing the gapRealClear Politics: 2018 Generic Congressional Vote
AP VotecastAP, Fox News launch new exit polling projectEarly exit polls drive election coverage and can lead to misleading coverage. Will AP Votecast tighten this up? We’ll find out about all the sausage making this weekend.
Generation Gap IssuesInterpretation of the Constitution: Pew Supreme CourtGrowing share of Americans say Supreme Court should base its rulings on what Constitution means todayGallup: Global Warming Age Gap: Younger Americans Most WorriedDo we still call it that? We’ve always called it that.
Royal WeddingPoll: Two-thirds of Brits not interested in royal weddingBritish Anti-monarchy group commissioned poll, results feel like, “Eh, we just had one of those.“
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May the Force Live Long and Prosper
We are way more anxious about the effect politics rather than personal relationships have on our daily lives. In Trumplandia, we look at the numbers, not at the bars. You may be Trumpier than Trump, but then Trump tweets. Incumbents? Run like you’re 10 points down. If you offer “not sure” as an out, people take the out. Everyone is sure about Star Trek vs. Star Wars. I love that guy.
POLLSTERS NATION AAPOR MEETUP: 5:00-6:00 on Thursday at Yard House right outside the Sheraton! Let Kristen buy you a beer.
As always, we're @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week: Anxiety APA Public Opinion Poll – Annual Meeting 2018
TrumplandiaTrump Job Approval
More Americans now say Russia investigation is politically motivated – CBS News poll
Trump Viewed Less Negatively on Issues, but Most Americans Are Critical of His Conduct - Pew Few Feel Positive Impact From Growing Economy- Monmouth
Congressional Election/Generic BallotWest Virginia Senate - Republican PrimaryExclusive: Two West Virginia Internal Campaign Polls Show Blankenship Narrowly Edging GOP RivalsGeneric Ballot CNN Poll
Polling on Iran
May the Fourth Be With YouStar Wars vs. Star Trek
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Polling Is Not Yeezy
We all have our own facts. Or we don’t think that word means what you think it means. Are we really unfazed or just not surprised? Please stop calling the kids Millennials. No, really, are these folks likely to register or likely to vote? That’s a different thing. If you got complaints there's always twitter. @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week:
Kanye’s Twitter Love from the President triples his approval rating by Republicans
Kanye West Is Building Up A Republican Fan Base
Correspondents who cover the White House Sleep Just Fine, Sean Spicer looks better all the time
The Most Prestigious Slog in Washington
Trumplandia
Trump Job Approval
Does the Swamp have legs?
Public Not Fazed by Unconventional Presidency
Living up to American Ideals -- We can’t even agree on the facts
The Public, the Political System and American Democracy
Toplines
Young White men heading elsewhere
Exclusive: Democrats lose ground with millennials - Reuters/Ipsos poll
To the States!
Missouri Senate Race
Polls show Missouri Senate race in dead heat
Emerson College Poll
New York Governor’s Race
Nixon Takes A Bite Out Of Cuomo In New York Gov Race
New Hampshire looks at 2020
Suffolk University Poll
Black Panther’s kid sister needs more love
Spider-Man Is Fan Favorite Among ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Characters
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Sex, Drugs, Rock and PollsThe true infinity war (Millennials ruined food, Boomers ruined Millennials); Stalking the non-voter; Feeling at home at Starbucks, or not; Watching Deadpool 2, or not. Find us @margieomero @ksoltisandeson @thepollsters.
POLL OF THE WEEK: Boomer Wars
Poll: Younger Americans less apt to use unique passwords
Millennials blame boomers for ruining their lives
Trumplandia
Trump Job Approval
POLL: Non-voters' dislike of Donald Trump isn't likely to make them vote in 2018
The Trump v. Comey war of words has hit a stalemate
Guns, drugs, and, abortion
Harvard Institute Of Politics Youth Poll-18-29 year olds
Young People Set to Impact the Debate on Women’s Health Issues
Abortion and Contraception Topline
The Starbucks Incident
White Americans Say The Starbucks Arrests Were An Isolated Incident. Black Americans Say They Were Part Of A Pattern
HuffPost: Starbucks controversy
Movie Night
Poll: Which Summer Tentpole Are You Most Excited to See?
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So many polls! Facebook, Mueller, pollster-friends, and Millennials ruining food. Tweet us your unsolicited advice @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters and www.thepollsters.com.
Poll of the WeekNew National Poll: Privacy, Facebook, and Cambridge Analyticahttps://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/984097851746783232No Overwhelming Support for More Online Regulation, Poll Finds
Trumplandia: Mr. 40%HuffPost Trump Job ApprovalNPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll: Republicans Sour On Mueller, FBI2018 Generic Congressional VoteDemocrats in Good Position to Nab Republican House Seats
Navigator & Our Interview W/Jef Pollock Navigator in the newsGlobal Strategy GroupHow Jef got his start
AP stylebook on Polls and Surveys
https://twitter.com/APStylebook/status/986270699642916866Updating our polling guidance
Cooking With Millennials
Can Millennials shuck oysters?
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Trump’s job approval holds steady, the world has interesting choices in who people admire, and more people are living in multi-generational homes. All that, and Spice Girls, too!
Check out our new sponsor winc wine club: www.trywinc.com/pollsters. Of course we're always @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
Poll of the week:
The World’s Most Admired People
Trumplandia
Mueller Poll
Scott Pruitt Poll
The swing toward Dems
Washington Post / Kaiser Family Foundation on people who march
Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 Youth Poll
Society
Pew on multigenerational households
Pop Culture
Carrie Underwood vs. Kelly Clarkson
Spice Girls
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Hey, we're getting professional help! We highly recommend it. @ us: @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsers.
Race and InequalityThings are not going well, but questions asked 50 years ago are as telling as the responses.Poll: 50 Years After MLK's Assassination, Most Americans Think Inequality ReignsThe February 2018 AP-NORC Center Poll In 1968, Nearly A Third Of Americans Said MLK Brought His Assassination On Himself
Trumplandia
Fake News, Who do you trust more, Trump or Network News?Trump Job ApprovalMonmouth University Poll
Opioids
Disease or Character Flaw?Americans Recognize the Growing Problem of Opioid Addiction
Almost Earth Day
Is the tradeoff question fair?Gallup Poll: Americans Want Government to Do More on Environment
Guns
This time it is different, a month out from a mass shooting.Post-Parkland Gun Politics Might Be Different, Polling Shows
Baseball
Is it convenient for me?MLB Pace-of-Play Changes Unlikely to Help Baseball Viewership
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Polls never take a holiday. Check us out anytime @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week
Kids are cute poll
Trumplandia
HP on Trump approval
MC/Politico on Stormy
CNN on NK & Russia
Taxes & Economy
CNBC on taxes
Pew on the economy
Reuters/Ipsos on FB
Axios/Survey Monkey
Tech worker "Blind" survey
Census
Census in the WP
Science on census
Vox on census
Easter
NRF on Easter
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Hey, do you like wine? We like wine. And now we even have a sponsor! Https://Trywinc.com/pollsters to get $20 off. Then tweet us your thoughts @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of the week: The View From The States
PPP poll in Tennessee
PPP poll in Nevada
RCP generic average
Trumplandia
HP Average
Morning Consult/Evangelicals
Monmouth/Deep State
Too Pew Too Furious
Pew on changing party identification
MeToo
Vox/MC/PerryUndem on MeToo
NYT Upshot/Picture a leader
Jelly Beans
CandyStore/JellyBean
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Kristen is back & ready to rant. And we've got the polling on everything on your mind.
Poll of the week:
Monmouth pre-election PA 18 pollHarry Enten on CNN:
National Climate
HP Trump Approval averageMorning Consult/Politico on tariffsGeneric ballot average
NEA Gun Poll
NEA poll of members
Pew Generation Gap Poll
Pew on the generation gap
Gallup Free Speech Survey
Gallup on free speech
MC NCAA Poll
Morning Consult on NCAA
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Kristen's away, but Dave is here! Listen to him drop some knowledge from his years covering House races. You can find him @redistrict.
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We're back together! We've decided everyone needs professional help, us included. Continue to tweet us complaints & data (not in that order). @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week: Higher Ed Scores Higher
Gallup on Higher Ed
Trumplandia
Huffington Post Trump Average
CNN on Trump/Russia
The Generic & Taxes
FiveThirtyEight generic average
Margie's tax poll for Not One Penny
Guns
Morning Consult/Politico on guns
Morning Consult/Politico on guns & corporations
FL Poll
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2523
Oscar Polling
USA Today & Oscars
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Last week Margie was in Vegas. She lost some money, lost track of time, and lost the episode we recorded. Did you miss us? Tweet us at @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
Poll Of The Week:
Axios & Driverless Cars
Trump:
HP Average
Pew on agency popularity
Guns:
WP/ABC on Guns
Quinnipiac on Guns
Sexual Harassment
USA Today on Sexual Harassment
Pew on Voter Files
Pew study on voter files
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From the Super Bowl to the Olympics, and from the FBI to Russia. And should we ban probabilities? (Probably not.) Find us on twitter: @ksoltisanderson @margieomero & @thepollsters. And we have a website! www.thepollsters.com.
POW:
AdAge SB ads
Morning Consult on Ram/MLK
Trump-landia
Huffington Post average
Huffington Post on FBI
Quinnipiac on FBI
Reuters on FBI
Politico/MC on FBI
NBC Survey Monkey on Russia
Gallup on the Presidency making you happy
Immigration/Shutdown/
Morning Consult/Politico tracking
Monmouth/DACA
Ban Probabilities?
Pew Research on probabilities vs vote share
Olympics
Seton Hall on Olympics
Gallup on Olympics
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It's our third anniversary of hatching a podcast plot. Oh and also that State of the Union thing. Don't hate-watch when you can love-listen. Send us your tips & angry notes to @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.com
Italy’s up next!
Economist poll tracker
Round of Applause
HP Trump approval tracker
CNN SOTU poll
CBS SOTU poll
BPC & USA Today SOTU focus group
Some Good News/Bad News
Gallup Trump approval by state
Gallup party ID by state
Monmouth on taxes, etc.
FiveThirtyEight on generic
Have any of these people read The Selfie Vote?
GenForward/NBC/Univ of Chicago
Pew on the role of govt
Geek Out Here
Pew on weighting online panels
Eagles fans vs pats fans?
Monmouth on the Super Bowl
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We'll stop talking about Oprah when people stop polling about her. Plus jeggings & football: what could go wrong?
Gothamist on leggings
Edelman Trust Barometer
Trump-landia
HP Average
ABC/WP poll
ABC/WP on racial bias
ABC/WP on Trump & Collusion
CNN on Trump/Russia
Shutdown
ABC/WP on shutdown
NBC/SurveyMonkey on DACA & shutdown
CNN on shutdown
2018/2020
CNN on 2020
RCP generic
538 on generic
Pew on midterms
Abortion
PerryUndem on Abortion
Are you ready for some Football? Or how about church?
PRRI on football
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Trump's year in review. Oprah vs. Bannon. And real polls about s-words. Check us out @margieomero @ksoltisanderson & @thepollsters.
Who’s a bigger threat: Oprah or Bannon?
Morning Consult on Oprah
HuffPost/YouGov on Bannon
Grading Trump
HP Trump average
Politico/MC on Trump's report card
CBS on Trump's first year
NYT on Taxes
S-Poll
BI on S-Hole
Hart/MoveOn on DACA -
True Polling About Fake News
Gallup/Knight Foundationaspx
Candy time!
Candy favs across the country
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Thanks for all the shoutouts of The Pollsters in the wild. We love them! Keep them coming @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson.
More like go-prah!
Rasmussen on Oprah
It’s always sunny in Trumplandia
HP averageSubgroup changes from Gallup by way of Charles FranklinQuinnipiac on Stable. Genius.On the bright sideMC/politico on Trump's futureMC/Politico tabs
From the Lady-FilesGallup: roles improving?Pew on STEM and women
The Pun-ultimate of Bad PunsPuns & YouGov
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Is your NY resolution to write more podcast reviews? Huh. Tweet us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of the week: How is your year treating you so far?Marist on NY resolutions
Axios & Survey Monkey on the year ahead
Gallup on '18 predictions
Trump’s stroke of luckHP approval tracking
Gallup ends tracking
Gallup on most admired
Monmouth on draining the swamp
A view from the states:Cruz's internal poll
This is not how any of this worksThe fakest poll award
You too?NYT & MC on harassment
Take a break from politics:SuperheroCoachella
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It’s our last show of 2017! Polling never takes a holiday, though. So tweet us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Taxes
Ariel Edwards Levy on tax polling.
Trump
HP on TrumpQuinnipiac on TrumpPew on Trump & race relationsFiveThirtyEight genericWP revisits in qualitativeWP on chaos theory
Cards Against Humanity
https://thepulseofthenation.com/#intro
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Hi new listeners! Got questions? Tweet us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson & @thepollsters.
Poll of the week: Mueller is Naughty or NiceHuffPo/YouGov on Mueller
Alabama GetawayRCP averageAlabama exitsEmerson AL pollFoxnews AL pollMonmouth AL pollSurvey Monkey AL poll
Kristen in the NYT
TrumpTrump HP averageQuinnipiac on Trump/RussiaPolitico/MC on Trump Allegations
Women's workplace challengesBusiness Forward survey of women
Pew on ChristmasPew on ChristmasMonmouth on Christmas
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Check us out, we're apart of the Famoply! Woo! New & old listeners, follow us @thepollsters on Twitter & Facebook. Or @ksoltisanderson @margieomero.
Poll of the Week
Morning Consult on Star Wars
Who run the world?
RCP Alabama average
Time/Survey Monkey
Pew on gender
Perry Undem on harassment
Trumplandia
HP Trump Approval
PRRI Never Trump vs Always Trump
Harvard IOP
Taxes
Gallup on taxes
Politico/Harvard
Politico/Morning Consult
Quinnipiac taxes
Candy polls
Candy Store poll
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It seems like a good time to eat one's feelings. And we have the polls to help you through it. Tweet us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
RoyalsUK poll on royal popularity
Sexual harassmentMorning Consult/PoliticoHuffington Post on party differences
Recent AL Sen pollingEmersonJMCWBRC
Franken PollsKSTP MN state pollMorning Consult/Politico on Franken
TrumplandiaTrump approvalMillennial poll NBC/GenForward
It’s National Cookie Day!National Cookie Day polling
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Looking for some political talk this Thanksgiving? Try tweeting us @thepollsters, @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We respond sometimes!
Some Alone Time
Netflix/SurveyMonkey
Hands Off Pants On.
Quinnipiac Poll on harassment
Huffington Post/UNITE housekeeper pollFox News AL pollGravis AL poll
Trumplandia
HP average"Some people say" Trump on polling
Taxes
Quinnipiac on Taxes
Thanksgiving
GSG on your Thanksgivingwww.pollfish.com
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Alabama polling, tax polling, and the one things more complicated than taxes: Families. Find us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Do we need Moore polling?
RCP averagePolitico/MC
Trumpdate
HP average
Taxes
Gallup most important issueIPSOS tax polling
American Family Survey
American Family Survey
Thanksgiving
NRF on Thanksgiving
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We were in LA! And also still a little on California time. Check out the live show we did with Josh Barro & the gang at KCRW's Left Right & Center. So much fun. As always you can reach us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
Virginia’s Blue Tide
The Margie margin
The Exits
2017 Exits2016 Exits2013 Exits
Trump on the ballot
HP Job Approval trackerTrump regretters MC/Politico
Timely Transgender Polling
Pew on transgender
Sexual harassment
CNN on sexual harassment
I’d go with yes.
Fun with newspaper polls
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Margie has a new gig, got into a friendly disagreement with Mark Penn & dressed as the Gender Avenger. No wonder she’s tired. For more alert analysis follow @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
Margie's new gig! http://www.gbastrategies.com/margie-omero-joins-gba/
The Trolley Problem https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy?lang=en
Cato Fun https://www.cato.org/survey-reports/state-free-speech-tolerance-america
Trumplandia http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval
WaPo/UMD https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/washington-postuniversity-maryland-democracy-poll-sept/2017/10/28/103b9f34-bbd7-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_page.html
Virginia Gov Politico Article https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/31/virginia-governors-polling-northam-gillespie-244362
Polling averages https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html
Washington Post & race in Virginia Gov https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/10/27/National-Politics/Polling/release_498.xml
Abortion https://view.publitas.com/perryundem-research-communication/re-examining-polling-on-abortion/page/10
Harassment https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-nearly-half-working-women-say-they-ve-n815376
You know you want more Halloween polling https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/halloween-spending-reach-record-91-billion
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Check out Kristen's yolo rant. Check out Margie in Boston on Monday. And we'll have news soon, promise! Follow us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Hollywood https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171006_crosstabs_Brands_v1_AP.pdf
“Reckless” in Morning Consult/Politico http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/25/trump-poll-reckless-honest-244126
Military Times https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2017/10/23/military-times-poll-one-in-four-troops-sees-white-nationalism-in-the-ranks/
VA Real Clear Politics https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html
Pew Political Typology http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/
YOLO Rant of the week: Cambridge Analytica http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cambridge-analytica-hillary-clinton-emails-julian-assange-2017-10
Halloween Facts: https://wallethub.com/blog/halloween-facts/25374/
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Kristen goes on a #yolo rant. And LA peeps ,we're headed your way on 11/9 @ The Ace Hotel as part of KCRW’s Left Right & Center live show. Come check us out!
As always we're @thepollsters, @ksoltisanderson @margieomero.
Poll of the Week
NPR All Songs Considered. http://n.pr/2hQKDZL
The Week In Trump
Trump Approval http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval
CNN on Hurricane recovery http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/10/16/rel10a.-.trump.hurricane.response[4].pdf
Morning Consult/Politico: Trump vs Media http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015f-2be6-d5e6-a37f-efee17720001 (morning consult)
KFF On Healthcare http://kaiserf.am/2gvj63e
MeToo
WP/ABC On Sexual Harassment http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1192a1SexualHarassment.pdf
Pew On Gender http://pewrsr.ch/2gOKwhp
Why Women Run http://www.marieclaire.com/politics/a12796802/why-women-run-for-office-survey/
Amy Cuddy in the NYT http://nyti.ms/2yAEkDd
Austria Pollsters, Take A Bow
Austria Election Polls https://pollofpolls.eu/AT https://www.ft.com/content/9082f58c-3713-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3
Halloween At The Office http://nationaltoday.com/us/halloween
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There's a lot to get upset about this week. Good thing we still have free speech! Tweet us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Columbus Day
Rasmussen http://bit.ly/2ybNkPF
Knights of Columbus/Marist http://bit.ly/2yGTxDQ Trump’s base play Morning Consult shows drop in every state http://bit.ly/2fZxzRm Rural voter support dropping http://reut.rs/2xtCtw7 Sexual Harassment/Discrimination Pew http://pewrsr.ch/2g8E0VK
AELevy http://bit.ly/2wQZA4s
CBS http://cbsn.ws/2wRD0IR Remember this ad? http://bit.ly/2gyqg3G Compromise vs. Polarization Gallup http://bit.ly/2hDfWat
Pew http://pewrsr.ch/2z0qBnt Free Speech http://bit.ly/2i7WvdE http://theatln.tc/2z3khea http://brook.gs/2kJhQLo Guns Morning Consult/Politico http://politi.co/2guDZbE Traditional Values http://bit.ly/2hEOKb0 GIF Pics Gfycat https://gfycat.com/
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This is the first time since August we've been in the same room together. Woah. Don't forget to tweet us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of the week - Russia
The Chicago Council https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/ccgasurvey2017_what_americans_think_about_america_first.pdf
The Daily Trump
Job Approval tracking http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval
Puerto Rico http://www.apnorc.org/PDFs/AP-NORC%20September%202017/AP%20Custom%20Poll%20Topline%20SEPTEMBER_Disaster_relief.pdf
Tax Plan http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/04/trump-tax-proposal-polling-243426
Guns
Margie’s tough talk http://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/353908-politicization-of-tragedy-is-the-last-thing-we-need-from-our-leaders
Harry Enten on Pew’s tracking https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-s-has-never-been-so-polarized-on-guns/
Pew on guns www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/06/22/key-takeaways-on-americans-views-of-guns-and-gun-ownership/
More from Pew http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/among-gun-owners-nra-members-have-a-unique-set-of-views-and-experiences/
Margie’s recent poll: https://gunsdownamerica.org/new-poll-safety-over-gun-rights/
NYT on gun policies https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/10/upshot/How-to-Prevent-Gun-Deaths-The-Views-of-Experts-and-the-Public.html
What Happened
Stan Greenberg on “How She Lost” http://prospect.org/article/how-she-lost?utm_content=buffer15ea9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Steve Shepard’s follow-up http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/29/hillary-clinton-campaign-2016-stop-polling-243202?utam_content=buffer3d23d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Does any of it matter? http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org/brief/what-election-campaigns-need-learn-persuade-voters-about-candidates-and-ballot-measures
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/26/the-end-of-political-campaigns-as-we-know-them-a-new-study-suggests-were-doing-it-all-wrong/?utm_term=.5072cf2b3cf2
The DMV VA Gov https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/10/05/National-Politics/Polling/release_495.xml?uuid=2I9j8qmBEeeamAcUDS7tAg
MD Gov https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/c605399a-45e7-4419-a45b-796c7289ab0c/downloads/1brjlvpme_166802.pdf
National Boyfriend Day https://nationaltoday.com/us/national-boyfriend-day/
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Kristen is back! Which is great, because we only have about one zillion polls to discuss. Find us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters. Big news coming soon. Promise!
Polls of the week: Alabama
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-alabama-republicans-defy-trump/ Virginia https://buff.ly/2wX4e50
Trumpsanity Huffington Post average http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval
Washington Post/ABC https://buff.ly/2xHy8ch
Oprah/Luntz Focus Group https://buff.ly/2wY3fwc
Tax reform
Washington Post/ABC https://buff.ly/2xGLipB
CNN http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/09/27/cnnssrspoll.pdf
NFL/Race
Cato’s NFL poll https://buff.ly/2fSzRlC
Reuters/IPSOS on NFL: https://buff.ly/2xzjjJn
Perry Undem survey among Blacks https://view.publitas.com/perryundem-research-communication/black-american-survey-report_final/page/1
Historical data from Gallup: https://buff.ly/2xynrJA
Germany
https://buff.ly/2fSJL6K
Pre-Election Polling Average. http://pollytix.eu/pollytix-german-election-trend/
Pew on China http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/10/Pew-Research-Center-China-Report-FINAL-October-5-2016.pdf
CSI The Pollsters
Pew on role of TV http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/25/shows-and-films-about-crime-medicine-help-foster-a-positive-view-of-scientists-say-many-americans/
Chinese dating app http://m.scmp.com/lifestyle/article/2112408/chinese-online-dating-giant-zhenaicom-shows-money-still-driver-politically?amp=1
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Margie & Mark Murray talk about Texas Football, 2016 polling, & where media coverage of polling may go next.
Be sure to read his piece on 2016's final stretch: "12 days that stunned a nation." http://nbcnews.to/2w2TDlc
Find Mark on Twitter: @mmurraypolitics & as always we're @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
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With Kristen away Margie is super-psyched to interview Cornell Belcher, Democratic pollster to Obama, the DNC, the DSCC and more. We get Cornell's take on the current climate around race, where the Democratic Party should go next, his mentors along the way, and of course fax machines.
Find his book here: http://a.co/8a9rwLk
Or find him online @cornellbelcher.
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Welcome back! For people not ready to give up on summer just yet, we have a few segments just for you. For people who want to send us tweets, check out @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
How do you Labor Day?
Gallup on labor unions http://www.gallup.com/poll/217331/labor-union-approval-best-2003.aspx?g_source=Workplace&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
Wallethub on labor day shopping https://wallethub.com/credit-cards/#labor-day-spending
Hurricane Harvey
Politico/Morning Consult http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/trump-hurricane-harvey-relief-242348
The Week In Trump
Pew on views toward Trump http://www.people-press.org/2017/08/29/republicans-divided-in-views-of-trumps-conduct-democrats-are-broadly-critical/
KSA talks to Ron Brownstein https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/a-republican-pollster-is-losing-faith-in-her-party/538497/
Fox news poll: with numbers like these... http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/08/31/fox-news-poll-august-31-2017.html
Immigration/DACA
Morning Consult/Politico http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015e-5366-df04-a5df-d76730df0002
Pew/worries about racism http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/29/views-of-racism-as-a-major-problem-increase-sharply-especially-among-democrats/
PRRI & religion https://www.prri.org/research/american-religious-landscape-christian-religiously-unaffiliated/
Sanders & Trump voters
John Sides & the Monkey Cage https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/?utm_term=.07653a3b36c1
Burning Man Census & Coconuts
Burning Man Census https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxJfvV_7__jqRTlpVHRWbGZIMkE/view
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It's almost National Red Wine Day. It can't come soon enough. Tweet us @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of The Week: Not Here To Make Friends
McConnell’s Kentucky numbers http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/KentuckyResults.pdf
Cuomo’s NY numbers: https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2472
Trump-mania
HP aggregator: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval
Charlottesville WP/ABC poll: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-shows-strong-disapproval-of-how-trump-responded-to-charlottesville-violence/2017/08/21/4e5c585c-868b-11e7-a94f-3139abce39f5_story.html?utm_term=.69c84e8189ea
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-aug-16-20-2017/2235/
Reuters on monuments: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-protests-poll-idUSKCN1B12EG
MassINC poll in Virginia: https://massincpolling.com/2017/08/22/virginia-voters-divided-on-blame-for-charlottesville-violence/
Morning consult/Politico http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/23/trump-charlottesville-polls-241917?lo=ap_a1
GW/Battleground poll https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/battleground-poll
Troll poll alert http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/08/trump-holds-steady-after-charlottesville-supporters-think-whites-christians-face-discrimination.html
“Level-headed” polling from Quinnipiac: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2482
All about that base from Fabrizio https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/22/trumps-own-pollster-just-confirmed-his-base-is-weakening/
A Harry Enten Investigation https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fake-polls-are-a-real-problem/
Back to school Safe spaces on campus http://www.gallup.com/poll/216278/why-republicans-down-higher.aspx?g_source=Education&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
Is back to school shopping stressful? https://morningconsult.com/2017/08/14/poll-walmart-fan-favorite-among-parents-back-school-shopping/
National Red Wine Day comes earlier every year https://nationaltoday.com/us/national-red-wine-day/
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Somebody please come to the rescue. We’ll try anything at this point. In the meantime, tweet us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters.
Poll of the week: Alabama pollsters take a bow:
Polling average comes pretty close: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-watch-for-in-tonights-alabama-senate-primaries/
Trump-losion
Status unchanged. That doesn’t mean it’s good: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval
HuffPo on Charlottesville http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/americans-trump-white-nationalism-poll_us_59941e9ee4b04b193361c305
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabsHPCharlottesville20170814.pdf
CBS has a poll on Charlottesville https://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-divided-over-trumps-response-to-charlottesville-cbs-news-poll/
NPR/Newshour/Marist also has a poll: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us170814_PBS/NPR_PBS%20NewsHour_Marist%20Poll_National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%2017,%202017.pdf#page=3
Kristen wrote a thing on Trump’s hardcore base. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/data-show-that-trumps-real-base-is-24-percent-of-the-electorate/article/2631618
Margie wrote a thing on racism in focus groups. http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/national-party-news/346653-a-view-from-a-pollster-on-trump-and-race-animus
Rasmussen has asked about confederate monuments, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/may_2017/voters_oppose_removing_confederate_monuments
LSU asked it too http://pprllsu.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Louisiana-Survey-2016-Report-Seven-FINALv2.pdf
Everything is fine, says Gallup (not really) http://www.gallup.com/poll/216260/trump-scores-highest-strong-leader-less.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
You’re Mitching the point
Not here to make friends: http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015d-e70e-d965-a55d-efeee5330001 http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015d-e70d-d36c-a17f-e7ddb75c0000 http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/16/trump-mcconnell-republicans-241670
Gallup gets in on the act http://www.gallup.com/poll/215885/mitch-mcconnell-favorables-down-among-republicans.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
The Mav is back http://www.gallup.com/poll/215897/mccain-favorability-healthcare-vote.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
2020 can’t come soon enough…
Gallup on Elizabeth Warren http://www.gallup.com/poll/216158/warren-image-remains-split-she-becomes-better-known.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
Coffee: we’re going to need it. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/08/11/the-countries-that-love-grabbing-coffee-to-go-infographic/#5397b4d32674
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Is it the end of the world as we know it? Well we're going to record literally from a bubble no matter what! Tweet us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero @thepollsters with your audio tips, prepping tips, and polling tips.
Poll of the Week
Gallup: Parents choose to intervene when a child is bored http://bit.ly/2vOYdFM
This Week in Trump
HuffPost: Trump Approval Ratings http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
SSRS/CNN: Low approval ratings at Trump’s 200 days mark http://cnn.it/2vJgg0I
Pew Research: Both parties believe the future will be worse for their children http://pewrsr.ch/2vwAUAg
Kasichmania?
ARG: In theoretical GOP primary, likely NH voters would choose Kasich over Trump https://usat.ly/2hGlQKX
Nuclear North Korea
SSRS/CBS News: Americans feel uneasy about future US/North Korean Relations http://cbsn.ws/2vJhYy6
Women in the Tech World
Science: Girls begin believing boys are smarter at young age http://for.tn/2kbLION
Harris Poll/Kapor Center: Women site unfairness as a top reason for leaving tech industry http://bit.ly/2pub3SX
ISACA: Women in tech industry cite a lack of mentors and gender bias http://bit.ly/2hLugkz
The Bieber Belt
http://nyti.ms/2vOTx2j
NYT: Maps show concentration of music artist fans across the US http://nyti.ms/2ftM9DK
Reddit/Wide Open Country: Map of best selling music artists, by state http://bit.ly/2vkhq1g
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If the news is getting you down, take a moment to stop & smell the flowers. & then tweet us @ksoltisanderson, @margieomero or @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week
Delphi Analytica: Kid Rock wins in hypothetical Stabenow/Kid Rock Senate race http://bit.ly/2eLUWAd
Virginia Governor
Change Research: While Perriello has a clear lead in the VA Democratic Primary, Gillespie’s lead banks on Republicans turning up to vote. http://bit.ly/2tJQuIU
Monmouth University: Voters are split on electing Gillespie and Northam for VA Governor http://wapo.st/2uREk05
This Week in Trump
HuffPost: Trump Approval Ratings http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
Politico: Tool estimates how voter groups impact Trump’s approval rating http://politi.co/2eMkQUw
USA Today/iMediaEthics: Voters split on if Trump should be removed from office https://usat.ly/2tT9NLn
Politico: National Tracking Poll July 20-24, 2017 http://politi.co/2vXcsoH
Partisanship
Pew Research: Women see increased involvement in politics after the 2016 election http://pewrsr.ch/2vFUve9
Healthcare
Politico/Morning Consult: Majority favor necessary changes to the ACA to prevent failure, and oppose a straight repeal http://politi.co/2tXgEn4
News Quiz
Pew: Quiz tests your “News IQ” http://pewrsr.ch/1fCQXti
Pew: “News IQ” Quiz Results Breakdown http://pewrsr.ch/2uVZfiA
Wine vs. Beer
Gallup: Beer remains the prefered alcoholic drink of the United States http://bit.ly/2tXtBx3
Gallup: The number of Americans who say they have tried pot is at a record high http://bit.ly/2tJvWAp
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No matter how you slice it, it's getting hot in Washington. Check out our latest & tweet us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero or @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week: Smoker Discrimination
Gallup: A majority of American smokers believe they are discriminated against http://bit.ly/2tHeBmU
This Week in Trump
HuffPost: Trump approval ratings http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
WaPo/ABC: Since Spring, public opinion of Trump has continued to diminish http://wapo.st/2udeBgk
Monmouth: More than half of Americans think the Trump team’s meeting with a Russian lawyer was inappropriate. http://bit.ly/2uAWbJi
Morning Consult/Politico: New poll shows that a majority of voters are think Trump, Jr.’s meeting was inappropriate. http://politi.co/2tpzOXm
Bloomberg: Voter opinion on Trump’s success regarding domestic and foreign policies http://bit.ly/2uDmNIQ
Gallup: Americans disapprove of Donald Trump because of his personality and character http://bit.ly/2vCG7n2
WaPo/ABC: Majority of voters view Trump’s actions as “unpresidential” http://wapo.st/2vFydco
Echelon Insights/Medium: Narrow plurality of Trump Country voters support Trump’s “Solar Wall” http://bit.ly/2tH1mTa
Trump Country/Midterms
PPP: A plurality of those who approve of Trump say they would still approve if he shot someone on 5th Avenue http://bit.ly/2u4Ylhp
NBC News/WSJ: Broad support for Trump’s policies in Trump Counties, though voters are less supportive of President Trump’s personal styles http://nbcnews.to/2tGjnkt
WaPo/ABC: Voters prefer to have Democrats control Congress after 2018, but Republicans are motivated to show up at the polls http://wapo.st/2u8OsiM
CEF/Brilliant Corners: Some Obama voters voted against Clinton in protest and do not regret their choice http://bit.ly/2tKomR5
The End of the AHCA
Monmouth: Americans are less supportive of the Senate’s health care reform bill http://bit.ly/2uAWbJi
Online Harassment
Pew: Americans are divided on how to balance free speech and safety issues online when trying to tackle online harassment http://pewrsr.ch/2u9X4aC
Close: How Well Do You Know Emojis?
Merriam-Webster: Teenagers know emojis best, while fifty-year-olds are least knowledgeable http://bit.ly/2vCKqPe
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Margie introduced Kristen to the world of kids' birthday parties & Dream Of The Blue Turtles. Tweet us your cold-war era tunes--we're going to need 'em! @thepollsters, @ksoltisanderson, & @margieomero.
Poll of the Week: Fugghedaboutit
Politico: New Jersey voters react to Chris Christie’s visit to the beach amid a government shutdown http://politi.co/2tAwiYy
This Week in Trump
HuffPost: Trump Approval Ratings http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
Gallup: American opinion towards the media’s coverage of Trump http://bit.ly/2uV1HUf
Politico: Trump Approval Ratings http://politi.co/2uO3Ukh
Gallup: American people provide Congress with little guidance on how to reform Affordable Care Act http://bit.ly/2sUiwNm
Politics and College Views
Pew: Strong partisan divide in views surrounding the impact of colleges, news media, labor unions, and religious institutions http://pewrsr.ch/2u4OcTS
Close: Who Tips Better?
CreditCards: Tipping differences among men and women, Northerners and Southerners, cardholders and cash payers http://bit.ly/2sVwcfv
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This week we'll be on Left Right & Center to help them celebrate their new one-hour show, so make sure to listen. And follow us anytime @margieomero @ksoltisanderson @thepollsters.
Poll of the Week
Pew: Most Americans want to make it easier for all Americans to vote. http://pewrsr.ch/2shqpAq
This Week in Trump
HuffPost: Trump Approval Ratings http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist: Americans believe that, under Trump, the country is becoming less civil http://to.pbs.org/2su8BOl
PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist: National Poll Topline http://bit.ly/2tBMbPc
Pew: Most Americans believe that the country is among the greatest, if not the greatest, nation’s in the world http://pewrsr.ch/2t9hb6A
Trump and the Media
Axios/SurveyMonkey: Trust of the media and the president is strongly linked to parties http://bit.ly/2tJrctl
MC/Politico: Trump’s tweets insulting Mika Brzezinski were deemed “unacceptable” by Americans http://politi.co/2toxUCK
MC/Politico: National Tracking Poll June 29-30 http://politi.co/2tG5Cq8
Drudge: Poll by right-leaning site shows that nearly 78% of respondents think that Trump should keep tweeting. http://bit.ly/2tlHQPm
MC: Poll shows that while a majority of Americans think that most Americans think Trump is not “PC” enough, most Trump voters think he is about right. http://bit.ly/2uOONX2
MC: National Tracking Poll June 20-21 http://bit.ly/2tlyxPk
North Korea
Suffolk Univ/USA Today: Americans on Punishing North Korea after Warmbier’s death https://usat.ly/2snrC4w
Men, Women, and the “Pence Rule”
MC/NYT: Most Americans are wary of being alone with a person of the opposite gender besides their spouse https://nyti.ms/2tzjRg5
Did You Fourth It Up?
NRF: How do Americans spend the 4th of July? http://bit.ly/28OaGv6
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Updates from the UK & around the world. And we find a way to make even Harry Potter depressing. Follow us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero to get our tweets-of-conscience.
Poll of the Week
NPR/National Dairy Association: Questioning NPR’s use of a milk marketing survey https://n.pr/2sYO6g6
Columbia Journalism Review: Looking into the dubious chocolate milk survey http://bit.ly/2sW8eQe
This Week in Trump
Gallup/Huffpost: Trump job approval http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
NPR/PBS/Marist: Trump approval rating among Republicans and Democrats http://bit.ly/2smBqeQ
AHCA - A State Perspective
Morning Consult: Majority of voters are against Senate healthcare bill medicaid cuts http://bit.ly/2tl9Inz
Politico/Morning Consult: Less than 40% of voters support HOP healthcare bill http://politi.co/2sgACNj
Politico/Morning Consult: National Tracking Poll http://politi.co/2sO62tj
Public Opinion Strategies: Nevada statewide voter opinions of American healthcare legislation http://bit.ly/2t0Zkyz
Public Policy Polling/West Virginians for Affordable Healthcare: West Virginians support a replacement plan before the Affordable Care Act is repealed http://bit.ly/2t1pDof
Morning Consult: Approval ratings of US Senators http://bit.ly/2p2O1Do
Marquette University Law School Poll: http://go.mu.edu/2tltX41
Party Leadership
Politico: Poll shows that while Democrats in Washington want Pelosi out, voters don’t want her gone http://politi.co/2sQ16ny
HuffPo/YouGov: Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan . http://bit.ly/2t27gj9
Confidence in American Institutions
Gallup: 3% increase in Americans’ confidence in key US Institutions compared to 2016 http://bit.ly/2s2ghYa
US Image Around the World
Pew Research Center: Around the world, decline in public image of the US and Trump http://pewrsr.ch/2saTL3i
Putin’s (Un)favorability Ratings
Gallup: Vladimir Putin’s negative image in the US falls even lower http://bit.ly/2tkMMEj
Close
YouGov: Poll proves majority of British people are Hufflepuffs, but they would rather be in Gryffindor http://bit.ly/2oB9C8U
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We write back sometimes! So follow us @thepollsters and @ksoltisanderson @margieomero. Don't forget to send Margie you're glastonbury reco's!
Poll of the Week
Planet Fitness/ Kelton Global: The Dad Bod is the “New Shape of Sexy” http://prn.to/2refN0t
Georgia 6th Special Election
RealClearPolitics: Georgia 6th District Projections http://bit.ly/2r2B79b
This Week in Trump HuffPost: Trump Approval Ratings http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
AP-NORC: Views of Trump’s Work in Office https://shar.es/1BrRgn
AP-NORC: Public’s attitudes about Trump and the Russia Investigation https://shar.es/1BrPxJ
Presidents after Retirement Gallup: Bush and Obama popularity in retirement http://bit.ly/2sPHnpp
Civility -- US Politics CBSNEWS: US Political debate is becoming more uncivil http://cbsn.ws/2tHjk8m
Public Relations PR Professionals-USC: How the White House has impacted the public relations profession http://bit.ly/2rVfSWp
Rural-Urban Divides Washington Post: Cultural and value-based differences between rural and urban Americans http://wapo.st/rural?tid=ss_tw
Washington Post: Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation Topline & Methodology http://wapo.st/2rqUwkq
Close AP-NORC: Summer Vacation Plans of Americans https://shar.es/1BrPXY
AP-NORC: Many Americans cannot afford summer vacation http://apne.ws/2sncK9r
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We talk to Anna Palmer from Politico's Playbook, give h/t to all kinds of Wonder Women, and even read some breaking polling news about GIFs. Follow Anna at @apalmerdc & us @ksoltisanderson & @margieomero.
Poll of the Week
Politico/American Univ/Loyola Marymount Univ: What stops women for running for office? http://politi.co/2t6B3XA
Democracy Fund Voter Study Group
Lee Drutman, New America: What are the political divisions that have caused tension since the election? http://bit.ly/2sfsp97
John Sides, GWU: How have race, religion, immigration shaped the debate over the American Identity in 2016? http://bit.ly/2s5vnON
Robert Griffin & Ruy Teixeira, Center for American Progress: Trump appealed to voters primarily on identity politics, amongst economic concerns and views of trade http://bit.ly/2trjRLy
Emily Ekins, Cato Institute: There are five types of Trump voters who have very different views on a variety of issues http://bit.ly/2sfCLpD
UK and Virginia Polling Wins and Misses
BBC: How wrong was the UK General Election polling? http://bbc.in/2rAo12E
BBC: UK Vote Share http://bbc.in/2t0mX9b
HuffPo: UK General Election Polls http://bit.ly/2rRHHCZ
BBC: After the General Election, Brexit negotiations and May’s leadership are up in the air http://bbc.in/2stRlMn
HuffPo: VA Democratic Primary Polls http://bit.ly/2trBVVU
HuffPo: VA Republican Primary Polls http://bit.ly/2stAOrw
The latest in gun polling
GunsDown/PSB Research: Americans believe that there should be less guns and that they should be harder to get http://bit.ly/2rvFDkR
Seriously with these movies?
Empire: Magazine releases its 2017 list “100 Greatest Movies”, topped by The Godfather (1972) http://bit.ly/2rAKe0h
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Hey whaddya know, another slow news week. Just a UK election & another sleepy Comey hearing. Follow us for the latest @ksolitsanderson @margieomero and @thepollsters of course.
Poll of the Week
Billboard: ‘Despacito’ tops Songs of the Summer Chart http://www.billboard.com/charts/summer-songs
This Week in Trump
HuffPo: Trump’s approval rating slightly move up to 41.5%. http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
ABC News/WashPo: A majority of Americans do not trust Trump after firing Comey. http://bit.ly/2s4n8ns
Monmouth: According to Americans, Trump is his worst spokesman. http://bit.ly/2sTG8S1
Politico/Morning Consult: Voters think Trump’s Twitter hurts is negatively impacting the country http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015c-8041-d9ca-adfc-85c1c6990000
Paris Agreement
WashPo: Nearly 6 in 10 oppose Trump scrapping Paris agreement http://wapo.st/2qUfiNh?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.39c6354bc241
Reuters/Ipsos: While Americans want “aggressive” action on climate change, most aren’t sure if it should be prioritized. http://reut.rs/2rBAExB
UK Election Tracking
HuffPo: UK General Election Tracker http://bit.ly/2rRHHCZ
FiveThirtyEight: How are UK pollsters trying to stop underestimating the Conservative vote. http://53eig.ht/2s5fFnZ
Independent: Twitter poll shows that May would definitely lose to Basshunter http://ind.pn/2rrYxYm
Close
HuffPo/YouGov: Maybe millennials aren’t actually blowing their home deposits on avocado toast… http://bit.ly/2rI1e6u
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Margie's twitter poll shows covfefe twitter is the best twitter. Don't forget to tweet us @ksoltisanderson or @margieomero.
Poll of the Week
Gallup: Majority of Americans view all branches of military very favorably http://bit.ly/2rElRTX
Pew: US Veterans are generally more supportive of Trump than the overall public http://pewrsr.ch/2r4DWr7
This Week in Trump
HuffPo: Trump’s approval rating has slightly increased, going from 39.9% to 41.3% http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
Politico: More people want Congress to impeach Trump, even if they don’t believe he has committed “high crimes and misdemeanors” http://politi.co/2qzOWQs
Does Trump Support Help or Hurt?
Pew: Trump’s first budget request makes large cuts to government programs, but few Americans support cuts. http://pewrsr.ch/2r3BfpM
Gallup: Americans still see manufacturing as key to job creation bit.ly/2roKq6h
PewGlobal: Over the past year, NATO’s image has improved on both sides of Atlantic. http://pewrsr.ch/2qRXU8h
HuffPo: Most Americans believe in man-made climate change and want the US to participate in the Paris Agreement http://bit.ly/2smRY6Y
Yale Climate Comm: A majority of Americans in every state say that the US should participate in the Paris Agreement. https://goo.gl/XDsKor
Yale Climate Comm: Climate opinion maps and public opinion estimates on climate change. https://goo.gl/DJi0rN
UK June 8th Election Tracking
HuffPo: The Conservatives are losing their lead in the polls over the Labour Party. http://bit.ly/2smXkPz
YouGov: Reasoning for YouGov’s use of the MRP technique during the UK 2017 General Election. https://goo.gl/TBcTA5
NYTimes: “Liar, Liar”, a song assailing Theresa May, is now topping the UK iTunes Chart. https://nyti.ms/2rkoJVa
YouTube: “Liar, Liar” by Captain SKA (iTunes https://tinyurl.com/y86lhwwb) https://youtu.be/HxN1STgQXW8
Independent: Although Labour has been gaining in polls, the Party still won’t win the election. http://tinyli.uk/wBi
Close
Looper: According to Fandango, “Wonder Woman” is the most anticipated film of the summer. http://tinyurl.com/y9vg7q42
WalletHub: Orlando ranks first in the “Best Places for a Staycation” list. http://tinyurl.com/znbg8kj
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We're back from a teensy weensy break where Margie went to the AAPOR conference. We love your reviews! And often dislike your misplaced pitches. Follow us on @thepollsters, @ksoltisanderson & @margieomero for more polls & yuks.
Poll of the Week
Roll Call: Ossoff leading Georgia’s 6th, voters unhappy with Trump http://bit.ly/2qkCcbs
Washington Post: Republicans are struggling in the Virginia governor’s race http://wapo.st/2rhV1Rq
Trump
HuffPo: Trump approval decreasing slightly http://bit.ly/2jBmTwz
Gallup: People dislike Ivanka less than they dislike her father http://bit.ly/2rhZGmd
Politico/Morning Consult: Voters want Russia collusion investigated http://politi.co/2qbcFpZ
HuffPo: People don’t approve of sharing intel with Russians http://bit.ly/2rADvYk
Values
Gallup: Americans don’t think they live in a morally centered country http://bit.ly/2qWZDLY
Gallup: Majority believe in evolution http://bit.ly/2qWSnj9
Gallup: Americans are becoming more liberal on moral issues http://bit.ly/2rdnnYZ
Washington Post: How question wording impacts views on LGBT+ rights http://wapo.st/2rAbFeY
Young Republicans Likely to Switch Parties
Pew: Younger support slipping for GOP http://pewrsr.ch/2pUa1R7
My kid could name that
LewisandQuark: This neural network has interesting ideas for paint names http://bit.ly/2qxVe15
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Margie talks to queen of the Huffington Post fempire Ariel Edwards-Levy, and she recounts the vibe from the AAPOR conference, the role of gender in 2016 polling, and her favorite pun. Follow her immediately @aedwardslevy.
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Come(y) at us, reviewers! If you want more "what happened in 2016?" then today is your day. And follow us on @thepollsters, @ksoltisanderson & @margieomero for more polls & yuks.
Poll of the Week
University of Virginia Center for Politics/Public Opinion Strategies: Trump voters, 100 days in http://bit.ly/2pprRhp
University of Virginia Center for Politics/Public Opinion Strategies: To supporters, Trump is a lion http://bit.ly/2qsLJlb
The Week in Trump
Huffpost Pollster: Trump approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
AHCA Part Deux
HuffPost/YouGov: The new AHCA is still not popular, but Trump voters have warmed to it http://huff.to/2pAzoHn
Comey Chameleon
The New York Times - The Upshot: Nate Cohn on the “Comey Effect” http://nyti.ms/2py1hPD
FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver says the media is “in denial” about the Comey letter’s impact http://53eig.ht/2pFFLKg
The Atlantic/PRRI: White, working-class fears of cultural change fueled support for Trump http://theatln.tc/2qXvIRm
“What Happened??!!”
AAPOR: A new report investigates what went wrong (and right) in 2016 election polling http://bit.ly/2pKeSFd
POLITICO: Five key conclusions from AAPOR’s 2016 election report http://politi.co/2qsFcXx
The Washington Post: The AAPOR report comes to a “split conclusion” about the 2016 election http://wapo.st/2q44Zoa
FiveThirtyEight: Just because Macron won doesn’t mean French pollsters got it right http://53eig.ht/2qW1JrS
Mother’s Day
National Retail Federation: From bling to brunch, Mother’s Day spending will set records this year http://bit.ly/2q7SaG3
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(Recorded 5/2/17) What's more popular than polls? Cats! Plus where should the Democrats go next? Thanks for the lovely reviews, don't forget to find us @ksoltisanderson & @margieomero.
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Poll of the Week
Politico: Surveying journalists covering Trump http://politi.co/2pZ6zsi
Trump Approval/Favorability
Trump Approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
Trump Favorability http://huff.to/1XtKEQR
Dem Firing Squad
McClatchy: Democrats say they now know why they lost http://bit.ly/2p6iP52
WaPo: GSG/Priorities USA present their findings http://wapo.st/2oYE2mx
WaPo: This pollster says Democrats are overconfident about 2018 http://wapo.st/2p9ry7j
Explaining the Wealth Gap through Partisan Lense
Pew: Why people are rich and poor http://pewrsr.ch/2pFZbPf
AHCA
Politico: Voters resist pre-existing conditions opt-out http://politi.co/2p8jTpZ
Criminal Justice Reform
Charles Koch Institute: Surprising support for criminal justice reform among Trump voters http://bit.ly/2oF6FoE
AAPOR Report AAPOR: An evaluation of the 2016 election polls http://www.aapor.org/
Funny
NYT: Empirical evidence shows cats love people http://nyti.ms/2qt3NLy
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Take a bow, pollsters! We read crazy PR pitches & lovely reviews. Don't forget to tweet us @ksoltisanderson @margieomero.
Poll of the Week
The Telegraph: French presidential election tracker http://bit.ly/2nE955W
The New York Times: How the election split france http://nyti.ms/2oCOOe0
Vox: The French election, explained in 9 maps and charts http://bit.ly/2qaLwia
Trump
Washington Post: Post-ABC poll: Trump popularity through nearly 100 days as president http://wapo.st/2pS1IbT
Washington Post: Americans size up Trumps first 100 days in Post-ABC poll http://wapo.st/2plS8gv
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey http://on.wsj.com/2otDZPp
Huffington Post/YouGov Poll http://huff.to/2oMf19V
Harvard IOP: As first 100 days nears, president Trump approval rating at 32% with young americans http://bit.ly/2p4oVGB
Big Government
Pew Research Center: With budget debate looming, growing share of public prefers bigger government http://pewrsr.ch/2oEqWqg
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll: A record number of americans say government ‘should do more’ http://nbcnews.to/2pSHUSR
Politico/Morning Consult: Border wall funding isn't worth shutdown http://politi.co/2pzqUnA
Quinnipiac Poll http://bit.ly/2oTr0Dn
Men and Partisanship
Council on Contemporary Families: Some men feel the need to compensate for relative loss of income to women http://bit.ly/2q66GPm
Funny
The Washington Times: Is President Trump right to skip White House correspondents' dinner? http://bit.ly/2oJL5dA
Salon: Should reporters boycott Trump’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner? http://bit.ly/2kugfbJ
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What's wackier than twitter trolls about our Easter candy preferences? This 5-year-old clip of Kristen & Margie introducing Bill O'Reilly to Nate Silver.
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https://youtu.be/HZ1hqwGzPwA?t=3m4s
Civilized: New cannabis culture poll debunks stereotypes, shows overwhelming support for legalization http://bit.ly/2o7ON5n
ABC 9 News: Americans think marijuana is safer than opioids http://on9news.tv/2pVWtV0
Yahoo News/Marist Poll: Weed and the American Family http://bit.ly/2oZgZ9R
WBUR Poll: Massachusetts 2016 general election http://bit.ly/2oOCvhf
Georgia
Huffington Post: Here’s what the polls say about tuesday’s special election in georgia http://huff.to/2pvkxRV
Trump World
Huffington Post Pollster: Trump job approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
Gallup: Majority in us no longer thinks trump keeps his promises http://bit.ly/2ptxf0J
Axios: Trump's growing trust problem http://bit.ly/2oOtVPg
Pew Research Center: Public dissatisfaction with washington weighs on the GOP http://pewrsr.ch/2oE48HT
Gallup: Americans name dissatisfaction with government as top problem http://bit.ly/2pGY4ib
Taxes
NPR: We asked people what they know about taxes. see if you know the answers http://n.pr/2oOxCFd
Gallup: Majority say wealthy americans, corporations taxed too little http://bit.ly/2oOpswa
Pew Research Center:Top frustrations with tax system: sense that corporations, wealthy don’t pay fair share http://pewrsr.ch/2osgYsP
French Election
The Telegraph: French presidential election: Poll tracker and odds http://bit.ly/2nE955W
Independent: French election too close to call as support for far-left Mélenchon surges http://ind.pn/2pmLkzD
Financial Times: France election polls http://bit.ly/2ntZ6Qu
Driverless Cars
Washington Post: Are you ready to try a driverless car? 70 percent of Americans say yes http://wapo.st/2pjpSMh
Fortune: Majority of Americans fear riding in self-driving cars, poll finds http://for.tn/2oU1QVe
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Try not to get into any PR disasters on the way to the parking lot. & don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.)
Poll of the week
Morning Consult: People react to Pepsi’s ad in real time http://bit.ly/2ptZOKD
Morning Consult: America’s most and least popular governors http://bit.ly/2ov84N5
Morning Consult: America’s most and least popular senators http://bit.ly/2p2O1Do
Trump
Huffington Post Pollster: Trump job approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
Reuters: The Trump effect http://tmsnrt.rs/2otcN1s
Gallup: Media faulted by both sides for coverage of Trump http://bit.ly/2o6OjbA
Gallup: Six in 10 in US see partisan bias in news media http://bit.ly/2otaprG
Syria
Washington Post: Narrow support for Trump’s strike in Syria http://wapo.st/2pu69pf
Gallup: US support for Syria strikes rates low in historical context http://bit.ly/2nyOzEa
CBS News: What Americans think about U.S. strike on Syria http://cbsn.ws/2pl9uqv
Huffington Post: Here's what the latest polls say about the airstrikes In Syria http://huff.to/2op2jOQ
POLITICO/Morning Consult: Voters back Syria airstrikes http://politi.co/2o6dF8M
Candy wars Cosmopolitan: Reese's mini peanut butter chocolate eggs are the most popular Easter candy this year http://bit.ly/2mZ0nzp
National Retail Federation: A later Easter is expected to bring record spending http://bit.ly/2p8CzGm
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Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.)
Poll of the Week
Huffington Post: A poll finds most Americans don’t trust public opinion polls http://huff.to/2nEEeDt
Pew Research Center: Are telephone polls understating support for Trump? http://pewrsr.ch/2o4NNxb
The World of Trump
Huffington Post Pollster: Trump job approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
McClatchy Marist Poll: March 2017 http://bit.ly/2obk0DE
Pew Research Center: Most say tensions between Trump administration and news media hinder access to political news http://pewrsr.ch/2n7a9iO
Politico: Voters recoil from government shutdown http://politi.co/2nX4eKj
Morning Consult/Politico Poll: Crosstabulation result; March 30 - April 01, 2017 http://politi.co/2oIqAzj
The Resistance
The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation: The fall of the AHCA and next steps for the ACA http://kaiserf.am/2o2L33j
Huffington Post: Progressive activism has surged since Donald Trump took office http://huff.to/2nLs7Un
Huffington Post: Poll finds surge of political activism on the left http://huff.to/2obgk4M
Lake Research Partners Poll http://huff.to/2p2wcUn
Huffington Post/YouGov Poll: Poll finds little opposition to confirming Neil Gorsuch http://huff.to/2oK3rMJ
Funny
Time: See who is winning the 2017 TIME 100 poll http://ti.me/2nZ2ZdB
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Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.)
Poll of the Week
Axios: Ad trust rises as news trust sinks http://bit.ly/2nptU2a
YouGov Poll: America's trust in advertising grows http://bit.ly/2nhfS0N
Trump-World
Huffington Post Pollster:Trump job approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
Gallup: Trump's Approval Rating drops to new low of 36% http://bit.ly/2mQf6fW
Gallup: Presidential approval ratings http://bit.ly/2jZDqX6
Scribd.: CBS NEWS POLL-Republicans blame unpopular bill, not Trump for healthcare defeat http://bit.ly/2njORdQ
YouGov Poll: Republican healthcare bill 2017 http://huff.to/2o8yzZ8
Huffington Post: Barely Anyone Is Mourning The Demise Of The GOP’s Health Care Bill http://huff.to/2nAWdMC
Quinnipiac American voters want to save big bird, most oppose spending cuts in Trump budget http://bit.ly/2ne2Vbr
The New York Times: A 2016 review: Turnout wasn’t the driver of Clinton’s defeat http://nyti.ms/2oe0gwG
Politico: Democrats burned by polling blind spot http://politi.co/2os3ZWK
Lady-Stuff
Pew Research Center: Americans widely support paid family and medical leave, but differ over specific policies http://pewrsr.ch/2mwtMRi
Vox: Poll: 80% say women should be able to have sex for pleasure, not pregnancy http://bit.ly/2n7aizB
French polling update
The Guardian: François Fillon's wife charged over embezzlement of public funds http://bit.ly/2njRfkO
The Guardian: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, France's hard-left rebel, targets the disenchanted http://bit.ly/2otxQ0R
The Funnies
Journalist David H. Montgomery: Pup inflation, good dogs getting better http://bit.ly/2ohPBkz
CBS News Poll: March 2016 http://bit.ly/2nhgS54
Fox News Poll: February, 2013 http://bit.ly/2nATW46
Merit Report: April, 1983 http://bit.ly/2ohVC0Q
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In tough political times like these, we want to vote for both pizza and soup. Meanwhile, how deep is your love, America? We really need to know.
Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.) And for your zip recruiter free trial visit this link: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/freetrial
Poll of the Week
Public Policy Polling: Only 24% of voters support GOP health care plan http://bit.ly/2mIUFOH
Trump approval
Huffington Post Pollster: Trump job approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
Gallup: Trump job approval http://bit.ly/2j6waY8
Millennials on Trump
CBS News: Majority of young adults don’t see Trump as legit president http://cbsn.ws/2nJB9Sk
Associated Press: Most see Trump as illegitimate president http://apne.ws/2meV7ar
GenForward Survey: Trump and the first 50 days http://bit.ly/2n87RN0
Pew Research Center: A wider partisan and ideological gap between younger, older generations http://pewrsr.ch/2nK5rY6
Climate Change?
The New York Times: How Americans think about climate change in six maps http://nyti.ms/2mUb6ae
Pew Research Center: How much does science knowledge influence people’s views on climate change and energy issues http://pewrsr.ch/2nJH78M
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication: Yale climate opinion maps http://bit.ly/2m3ygNE
Gallup: Nearly two in three in US say winter was warmer this year http://bit.ly/2mtUtpE
Gallup: Americans tilt toward protecting environment, alternative fuels http://bit.ly/2o0Ou89
CSPAN SCOTUS Poll
Washington Post: Can you name a Supreme Court Justice? You’re in the minority http://wapo.st/2nCUh7g
C-SPAN: C-SPAN/PBS Supreme Court survey 2017 http://cs.pn/2mtf6SQ
2nd Grade Poll
BuzzFeed News: Mrs. Porter’s second-grade Class survey http://bzfd.it/2mVklXm
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Pollsters take a bow. Well, Dutch pollsters that is. And is polling giving you the munchies? We got you.
Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.)
Poll of the week
Edison Research: Podcasting continues to boom as four in ten americans tune in http://bit.ly/2mONS8E
Trump
Huffington Post: Update on Trump Job Approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
Axios: Democrats are hunting for the "Trump Regretters" http://bit.ly/2nrAb06
Gallup: Majority in US optimistic Trump will make country prosperous http://bit.ly/2ndXXw7
Washington Post: Reagan Democrats give Trump a long leash – but deeply distrust GOP http://wapo.st/2nw15k4
Democracy Corps: Macomb County in the Age of Trump http://bit.ly/2mwJ5nV
Obamacare
Politico: Voters wary of GOP health care bill http://politi.co/2mT85Jq
Kaiser Family Foundation: Early perceptions of House Bill show public thinks it would cover fewer people and raise health costs http://kaiserf.am/2ndYdLn
Climate Change
Gallup: Global warming concern at three-decade high in US http://bit.ly/2n38U2Z
LGBT Rights PRRI: Partisan Divide in Perceptions of Discrimination http://bit.ly/2lL6uqi
O’Malley 2020
Politico: O'Malley tests 2020 waters with Iowa poll http://politi.co/2nrP16R
Time to celebrate!
Washington Post: DC gets top 10 spot on list of nation’s happiest places to live http://wapo.st/2nrR9eM
National Retail Federation: Americans plan to spend record-high amount for St. Patrick’s Day http://bit.ly/2mKdItX
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Kristen didn't get Margie anything for #IWD. Awkward. Well, we do have lots of polls about the future of democracy to cheer us up.
Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.)
Poll of the week
Gallup: D.C. tops list of Gallup good jobs http://bit.ly/2neKNLC
USA Today: U.S. slips to seventh best country in the world after Trump election http://usat.ly/2mvHm63
POTUS Job Approval/Speech Reaction
Huffington Post: Trump job approval rating http://bit.ly/2m2P1px
Huffington Post: Few see Trump’s address to Congress as pivot http://huff.to/2mOEdzi
Gallup: One-third of speech watchers more confident in Trump http://bit.ly/2lE749c
Questions about AG Sessions, Trump Ties to Russia
Politico: Majority of voters favors special prosecutor http://politi.co/2mXW32H
Huffington Post: Public concern over Russia hits highest level since the cold war http://huff.to/2lUqnqU
Protecting Our Elections
Pew Research Center: Checks and balances, right to protest essential for democracy http://pewrsr.ch/2lEszCH
The Washington Post: The astounding political divide over what it means to be ‘American’ http://wapo.st/2mjoy7V
AP/NORC: The American Identity: Points of pride, conflicting views, and a distinct culture http://bit.ly/2n6A4nj
Obamacare/AHCA
CNN: Public splits on revoking individual mandate http://cnn.it/2lZ4TbL
Monmouth University: Cost drives opinion on health care http://bit.ly/2mGbM6b
International Women’s Day
More About Advertising: Women do not like advertising http://bit.ly/2mBLDVy
Ipsos MORI: Three in four women around the world believe there are unequal rights in their country http://bit.ly/2n6tA7I
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It's our two year anniversary of hatching The Pollsters plot! And we have a special dedication, Casey Kasem style. Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.) And for your zip recruiter free trial visit this link: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/freetrial
Poll of the week
NYT: Where Oscar Best Picture Nominees are liked (on Facebook) most http://nyti.ms/2mMfHun
Trump’s Approval
CNN: Speech-watchers generally liked Trump’s speech http://cnn.it/2lzTks8
NBC/WSJ: Trump’s low approval ratings are historic http://cnb.cx/2madqwa
Huffington Post: Update on HuffPo’s approval tracker http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
McClatchy-Marist: Most Americans trust their favorite news source over Trump http://bit.ly/2lvGXxb
Huffington Post: Americans concerned more about personal rather than public issues http://huff.to/2mfseds
Face the Nation Focus Groups
CBS: Gauging Americans initial reaction to Trump presidency http://cbsn.ws/2lAxQuW
Walmart’s “American Family” Report
POS, PSB, Quid, WalMart: Understanding five areas of families’ changing behaviors http://bit.ly/2li0Ma9
Trade
Gallup: Partisan divide widening on NAFTA http://bit.ly/2lV8zyv
NBC/WSJ: Republicans may see a rift on free trade http://nbcnews.to/2lXPSby
Understanding Teenagers Before They Vote in 2018/20
AP/NORC: American teenagers find strength in diversity http://bit.ly/2lY64tD
Mardi Gras is Over
OpenBible: People are tweeting about giving up Twitter for Lent http://bit.ly/2lAlvHg
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Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.)
Poll of week
Pew: Americans warm to religious groups http://pewrsr.ch/2mbvFCb
The Week in Trump
Huffington Post: Why is Trump’s approval average all over the place? http://huff.to/2mbrUwE
Gallup: One month in, Trump job approval 21 points below average http://bit.ly/2lWHQ2r
Pew: Trump has little crossover support http://pewrsr.ch/2mga5ZU
PSB: Trump regretters see him “going too far” http://bit.ly/2kxfui6
Huffington Post: Partisan reaction to Trump’s wild press conference http://huff.to/2lznexg
Bogus GOP Online “Poll”
GOP: Trump’s media accountability “poll” http://bit.ly/2kYkcEf
The Plum Line: GOP voters trust Trump over the press for news http://wapo.st/2moVLOj
Boston Globe: Trump campaign sends a biased media bias survey http://bit.ly/2kPrfwB
Washington Post: Suggested answers to Trump’s “poll” http://wapo.st/2mgnYHL
We’re Already Talking About 2020 Polling
Politico: Never too soon to talk about the horserace http://politi.co/2lcT1Dv
Americans are Stressed Right Now
Washington Post: APA Poll finds Americans stressed about country’s future http://wapo.st/2kQIDF5
People Really Don’t Like Their Cable Company
Echelon Insights: Consumers frustrated with pay-TV providers http://bit.ly/2lOKPge
Oscar Polling
Morning Consult: More than half of Americans haven’t seen a Best Picture nominee http://bit.ly/2moWwXs
Variety: People Think La La Land will win Best Picture http://bit.ly/2lJSv2D
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Kyley is PSB's methodologist & a Michelin restaurant enthusiast. And she's not neutral about "neutral" answer categories, online survey formatting, or complicated scales. This stuff matters! And Kyley makes it fun.
https://twitter.com/kyleymcg https://missionmichelin.com/
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This is a safe space for a small amount of non-Trump news. Don't forget to follow us @thepollsters @margieomero @ksoltisanderson. We write back! (sometimes.)
Poll of week
Business Wire: Lightheartedness named the key to Super Bowl LI advertising success http://bit.ly/2kT4I51
Trump approval tracking
Huffington Pollster: Trump job approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
THE HILL: Trump administration seen as more truthful than the media http://bit.ly/2loVFWe
Harvard IOP: Young Republicans hopeful and young Democrats fearful after inauguration http://bit.ly/2jIkjjk
Issues
New York Times: One-third don’t know Obamacare and Affordable Care Act are the same http://nyti.ms/2lsru0k
Washington Post: More Democrats are familiar with Stephen Bannon than Charles Schumer http://wapo.st/2kSJkwK
POLITICO: National tracking polls Feb. 02-04 http://politi.co/2k0eNso
Gallup: Support for Gorsuch lower than other recent court picks http://bit.ly/2jPVF5e
Morning Consult: Democratic base mostly fine with blocking all things Trump http://bit.ly/2k8xXfT
THE HILL: ‘Any negative polls are fake news’ - Trump http://bit.ly/2kJXMqG
Morning Consult: Trump’s approval rating slides despite support for travel ban http://bit.ly/2lp063x
POLITICO: Polls fuel both sides in travel ban fight http://politi.co/2kUA3nL
French election polling
Reuters: Poll shows Le Pen losing French presidential runoff http://reut.rs/2kMhOyP
Reuters: France's Macron seen beating Le Pen http://reut.rs/2kC4Pj3
INDEPENDENT: Most Europeans want immigration ban from Muslim-majority countries http://ind.pn/2lfP8RM
Close
PRNewswire: Women in relationships couldn't care less about Valentine's Day http://prn.to/2kXqu7i
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Follow us! https://www.facebook.com/ThePollsters/ or https://twitter.com/ThePollsters. We’re also @margieomero @ksoltisanderson on Twitter. And below is a list of the polls we cite this week.
Poll of the Week
Pew: Most Americans support childhood vaccines http://pewrsr.ch/2kwskfg
Trump: Favorability and approval
Huffpost Pollster: Trump’s job approval http://huff.to/2jBmTwz
Huffpost Pollster: Trump’s favorability http://huff.to/1XtKEQR
Public Policy Polling: Voters already want Obama back (also, opinions on the travel ban) http://bit.ly/2k4E5c4
Washington Post: Democratic women are ramping up activism http://wapo.st/2kxk7r7
SurveyMonkey: Americans already split about Trump’s performance http://svy.mk/2kuuPiD
New York Times: Why Republicans will “stick with Trump” http://nyti.ms/2kutZ5D
Huffpost Pollster: Republicans are skeptical of media covering Trump http://huff.to/2jqltok
POLITICO: Opinions on voter fraud and the executive orders http://politi.co/2kqvQIJ Morning Consult: Poll - If there was fraud, Trump was helped the most http://bit.ly/2k0j1B3
Views toward Trump so far: keeping promises, etc.
Gallup: Of Trump’s promises, people care most about infrastructure spending http://bit.ly/2k4OSTJ
Huffington Post: Taking Trump literally http://huff.to/2jzRgyx
Quinnipiac: Travel ban and immigration http://bit.ly/2jl4Vgg
Rasmussen Reports: Most in favor of a temporary refugee ban http://bit.ly/2kuTYJY
Huffington Post/YouGov: Travel ban http://huff.to/2kWqxBd
Huffington Post/YouGov: Immigration ban (topline) http://huff.to/2kWt8v2
Ipsos/Reuters: Poll on immigration ban and refugees http://bit.ly/2ke6jQf
Gallup: Americans’ opinions on accepting refugees throughout history http://bit.ly/2k0QCel
Pew: Religion and its role in national identity http://pewrsr.ch/2krHByi
POLITICO: Voters support Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood funding http://politi.co/2kuumNx
Super Bowl
WalletHub: Super Bowl facts http://bit.ly/2jBtUgL
PPRI: One in four say God decides who wins the Super Bowl http://bit.ly/2kYvaHM
Forbes: The Super Bowl should be streamed online and in virtual reality http://bit.ly/2l1cSol
Public Policy Polling: A shared hatred of the Patriots http://bit.ly/2ka5rvU
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Get a discount at Mack Weldon here: https://www.mackweldon.com/ with the promo code POLLSTERS. Who doesn't like discounts?
Follow us! https://www.facebook.com/ThePollsters/ or https://twitter.com/ThePollsters. We’re also @margieomero @ksoltisanderson on Twitter. And below is a list of the polls we cite this week.
POLITICO/Morning Consult: Melania and Ivanka are well-liked http://politi.co/2jRuNPj
Gallup: First Lady ratings over the years http://bit.ly/2kooQcl
Inauguration Reactions
POLITICO/Morning Consult: Voters liked the Inaugural Address http://politi.co/2jpiAmc
Huffington Post/YouGov: Most don’t believe there were “record crowds” at the Inauguration http://huff.to/2juEcev
Huffington Post/YouGov: Most who saw the Inaugural Address thought it was good http://huff.to/2jZT341
Morning Consult: Republicans think the Inauguration was bigger than the Women’s March http://bit.ly/2k4UTRa
Gallup: New low for Inaugural approval http://bit.ly/2j7J608
Huffington Post: Donald Trump is starting with record-high disapproval http://huff.to/2j9GwXk
Policy Priorities and Voter Expectations
Pew: Americans don’t expect political divisions to heal in 2017 http://pewrsr.ch/2iXbQvL
Gallup: Will we be better off in 2020? http://bit.ly/2k5oIRr
Pew: Americans think wealthy will gain influence under Trump http://pewrsr.ch/2jKQ1xN
Pew: Despite big changes in D.C., the public’s policy priorities haven’t changed much http://pewrsr.ch/2jZ3NQg
The Resistance
Los Angeles Times - Reuters/Ipsos: A third of Californians support secession http://lat.ms/2ju3jk3
Oscars Season
Hollywood Reporter: Which movie should win Best Picture? http://bit.ly/2jBw0cd
Variety: Most shocking Oscars snubs http://bit.ly/2jVAoEb
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Follow us--we even respond sometimes. https://www.facebook.com/ThePollsters/ or https://twitter.com/ThePollsters. We’re also @margieomero @ksoltisanderson on Twitter. And below is a list of the polls we cite this week.
Poll of the Week
NYT: Republican men say it’s a better time to be a woman than a man http://nyti.ms/2jz2A1f
Obama’s Legacy
Huffington Post: Obama’s job approval http://huff.to/ZeDbgl
Gallup: Americans say history’s view of Obama presidency will be more kind than unkind http://bit.ly/2k4kzxE
Gallup: Personal satisfaction bounces back http://bit.ly/2iBif0K
Huffington Post: Americans like Obama’s legacy, but may also want a new direction http://huff.to/2jKKJlM
Making history, of a kind:
Politico: Polls show Trump’s approval is historically low http://politi.co/2jUNT5N
CBS: More Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the transition http://bit.ly/2iQZQM8
CNN: Confidence drops in Trump transition http://cnn.it/2jv2bx0
The Washington Post/ABC News: January 12-15, 2017 Poll http://wapo.st/2j1HOo8
Pew: Concerns over Trump’s transparency http://pewrsr.ch/2jfgRxv
Pew: ISIS, Cyberattacks and North Korea biggest threats as Trump presidency starts http://pewrsr.ch/2jogFfu
ABC News/The Washington Post: Trump’s handling of Russia & the ACA http://wapo.st/2k4z7xq
Maybe it's the issues?
NBC/WSJ: ACA reaches record high approval as Obama exits http://nbcnews.to/2jkEfdz
Politico/Harvard: Expectations for Trump’s first 100 days http://politi.co/2jnXVgC
The Washington Post: Trump is off to a rocky start http://wapo.st/2jo6VCs
Ipsos/Reuters: Americans want strong environmental regulations from EPA http://reut.rs/2ixA94w
Huffington Post: Trump supporters have his back, even against fellow Republicans http://huff.to/2jFD7RE
Which of these travel jerks are you?
Expedia: Seat-kickers are enemy #1 on planes http://bit.ly/2k0vVyy
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Follow us--we even respond sometimes. https://www.facebook.com/ThePollsters/ or https://twitter.com/ThePollsters. We’re also @margieomero @ksoltisanderson on Twitter. And below is a list of the polls we cite this week.
Polls of the Week
Civis Analytics & PSB Research: Most moviegoers unfavorable toward Trump http://bit.ly/2j8MV9e
The Sessions Sessions
The Economist/YouGov: Sessions’ November favorability numbers http://bit.ly/2ihrVsj
The Economist/YouGov: Basic info on Jefferson Sessions http://bit.ly/2j7VfFS
Obama’s legacy
Gallup: Ground gained and lost under Obama http://bit.ly/2j8OeFa
Gallup: Americans still see big government as the biggest threat http://bit.ly/2iW4Pce
Mark Blumenthal for SurveyMonkey: Obama’s ends with high approval, but polarity persists http://svy.mk/2jEYllQ
Trump’s tough week
Quinnipiac: Voters approve of Obama, disapprove of Trump http://bit.ly/2i9MUlC
Obamacare
GS Strategy Group/American Action Network: Most Americans want Obamacare repealed or overhauled http://bit.ly/2jkubB2
Kaiser Family Foundation: Most say don’t repeal or provide replacement details http://kaiserf.am/2iJJeq3
Morning Consult/POLITICO: National tracking poll on Obamacare http://politi.co/2jbgV1p
Disconnect between police and public
Washington Post: Report on police and public attitudes http://wapo.st/2jF6GpD
Pew: Behind the Badge http://pewrsr.ch/2jhaBFQ
Books vs iPhones: who will win?
Gallup: Books are still holding on! http://bit.ly/2jkj4I2
9to5Mac: Which rumored iPhone features are most exciting? http://bit.ly/2jsul8u
9to5Mac: Flat or curved iPhone 8? http://bit.ly/2j8SkwR
Ebates: Video game hits and busts http://bit.ly/2jwHBsQ
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Welcome back everyone! Kristen is well-rested, but Jet Lag Margie is on the loose. Find more polls at https://www.facebook.com/ThePollsters/ or https://twitter.com/ThePollsters. We’re also @margieomero @ksoltisanderson on Twitter. Here are the polls we cite this week.
“Polls” of the Week
Mediaite: Who should replace Megyn Kelly? http://bit.ly/2hVzl4i
Marsha Blackburn’s Obamacare twitter poll backfires http://bit.ly/2iMMj91
Carrie Fisher’s dog Gary could teach Marsha Blackburn about twitter polls http://bit.ly/2hVDFR5
2016 in our rear-view mirror
POLITICO/Morning Consult: Trump would barely beat Obama in a head-to-head race http://washex.am/2hVsGY1
Pew: Democrats aren’t angry, they’re just disappointed http://pewrsr.ch/2hVn4gq
HuffPost Pollster/YouGov: Trump voters think African Americans “less deserving” than average http://huff.to/2iFXEqZ
Can you handle it?
Gallup: Americans not sure Trump can handle Presidential duties http://bit.ly/2i298C2
Ideological scramble
Gallup: “Liberal” is in, “Moderate” is out http://bit.ly/2hVCZA8
Pew: Perceptions of Trump’s ideology http://pewrsr.ch/2hQGKn6
Pew: Republicans increasingly skeptical of free trade http://pewrsr.ch/2ianOmn
The Huffington Post: Back in the USSR http://huff.to/2hVwNDp
The Sun: UK poll remembers George Michael http://bit.ly/2iUHwiX
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(Recorded 12/20)
Whaddya think of our snazzy new intro & outro? Follow us--we even respond sometimes! https://www.facebook.com/ThePollsters/ or https://twitter.com/ThePollsters. We’re also @margieomero @ksoltisanderson on Twitter. And below is a list of the polls we cite this week.
Polls of the week: Good news?
Ipsos/DieHappy: What made Americans happy in 2016? http://bit.ly/2hPSnuE
Pew: The most impactful historical events http://pewrsr.ch/2hzOn1h
PRRI/Atlantic: Almost one in five of Clinton voters’ husbands sat out the election http://bit.ly/2h6sbgp
Morning Consult/POLITICO: Little support for an Electoral College revolt http://politi.co/2hJBuUA
Forbes: Post-election, Trump brand gets a little boost among the wealthy http://bit.ly/2h6t34U
NBC/Wall Street Journal: What kind of change will Trump bring? http://on.wsj.com/2i0szyZ
PRRI: War on Christmas? http://bit.ly/2h2ACt2
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Welcome new listeners! Get excited about our new partnership with Westwood One. Follow us--we even respond sometimes! https://www.facebook.com/ThePollsters/ or https://twitter.com/ThePollsters. We’re also @margieomero @ksoltisanderson on Twitter. And below is a list of the polls we cite this week.
Poll of the Week - Echelon Insights: Trump vs. Kanye http://bit.ly/2gGjwxZ
The Washington Post: Shy Trumpers? http://wapo.st/2hARWnE
Public Policy Polling: Employment, Electoral College, and counting California votes http://bit.ly/2gyHP5B
CBS News: What kind of President will Donald Trump be? http://bit.ly/2gGkWIP
POLITICO: Democrats aren’t warming to Trump http://politi.co/2hGYyE1
Gallup: Trump’s transition http://bit.ly/2hAM267
McClatchy-Marist: Trump in transition http://bit.ly/2h5sJ3X
YouGov: Republicans growing fonder of Wikileaks, Russia, Putin http://bit.ly/2h5tav7
Ipsos MORI: U.S. scores high on the “Index of Ignorance” http://bit.ly/2gAeYt0
Morning Consult: Most think Medicare should continue as-is http://bit.ly/2gQ94qJ
Kaiser Family Foundation: Divided America would pick and choose parts of ACA http://kaiserf.am/2gdrBdS
Gallup: The role of government in health insurance http://bit.ly/2hLq8zW
Gallup: Personal versus national health care http://bit.ly/2hTg2ZX
Gallup: Dissatisfaction with healthcare costs http://bit.ly/2hC3xCG
Regifting, from, uh, Creditdonkey http://bit.ly/2h7TXGU
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Did you hear our interview with Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio & Clinton pollster Joel Benenson? You’re going to want to take a listen. It’s one of our favorite episodes so far.
Poll of the Week: We’ve hit peak pollsters
The Pollsters talk about the polling on polling.
Huffington Post on Trump voters Ipsos poll on pollsters’ distrust
Everybody (well, half of everybody) Loves A Winner
Even Trump gets a post-win bounce.
Huffington Post on Trump’s favorability Morning Consult on Trump’s favorability Gallup poll on president-elect’s favorability
Post-Fact Universe
The true polling about post-facts
Pew Research on pollsters and press evaluation Buzzfeed News on fake news Morning Consult on credible media outlets
Electoral College
Gallup poll on the rise of support for the Electoral College
Carrier and the Free Market
Politico on Trump’s Carrier deal YouGov poll on Trump’s Carrier deal
Donald Trump’s Businesses
Conflicts are complicated.
Bloomberg on Trump’s businesses
Tweeter In Chief
Is there a secret high-level Twitter Anonymous meeting out there that Kristen can go to?
Politico on Trump’s use of Twitter
We Love International Elections!
International Business Times on France 2017 election International Business Times on Italy referendum Reuters on Italy referendum Quartz on Italy referendum Bloomberg on Italy referendum results Financial Times on Austria presidential election CNN on Austria election Pew Research on Europe’s future
Polling on Santa
Margie explains to Kristen the joys of the creepy Santa photo
Ipsos polling on Santa
Key findings:
Here’s a real news story: With multiple polls about pollsters, we’ve hit peak pollsters. Although no one seems to be getting an A for effort. People are still working out the kinks about how to test Trump’s conflicts of interest . And if it’s hard to explain in a question, then, ah, well, i’m sure it’ll be fine. Meanwhile The pollsters transition team is in full force. We’ve put all our podcast revenue so far into a blind trust handled by my 1.5 year old. The downside is he sits in on all my meetings & is an obnoxious tweeter. Meanwhile, while people continue feel our country is off on the wrong track. AND more say belief in santa is decreasing? Correlation? Causation? You tell us!
Don't forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook!
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Kristen & Margie are back! We went up to Harvard's IOP Campaign Manager Summit. While you may have heard about some testy conversations, our pollster summit with Clinton pollster Joel Benenson & Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio was friendly and informative. What kinds of questions did they ask? Were they surprised? How have their years in the trenches prepared them for this race? Listen to our live show & hear about our new big announcement!
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Margie's still detoxing, but Kristen's got thoughts. Take a listen. And we'll have a live show from Harvard next week!
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Maybe polling does take a holiday? Margie's detoxing too hard to get a good consistent connection, so stay tuned for Plan B.
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We don't have any shownotes. Or a script! We just have some theories about what happened in the race, what happened in the polls, and then some jokes. Because, beer.
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We’ve been a lot of places--if we spent any more time together this week we would’ve had to give each other candy. Poll of the Week Can Ivanka’s brand withstand Hurricane Trump? Fortune: Women won’t buy Ivanka Trump shoes What is happening out there?! The race is tightening. Or is it? Real Clear Politics: YouGov’s Doug Rivers and Benjamin Lauderdale on Phantom Swings NBC/Survey Monkey: Post-Comey letter polling Morning Consult: Post-Comey letter polling Morning Consult: Polls unaffected by reopening of email case ABC/Washington Post: Trump creating more enthusiasm among early voters NYT Upshot: Where the handicappers are Early Voting Early voting seems to be benefit Clinton. But will that advantage last? CNN: Early voting tallies in FL, AZ, OH Florida Division of Elections: More early voting tallies in FL Nevada Secretary of State: Early voting tallies in NV Just a little respect Hats, swag, angry pollsters, angry neighbors. Just a wonderful time to be alive. Pew: Hillary supporters have a “hard time” respecting Trump voters Washington Post: Trump has spent more on hats than polling Washington Post: Trump hasn’t paid his pollster PSB Research: Who is reaching voters and how? Key findings: We’re in the final countdown. Pick up some stickers & yard signs, do some GOTV & don’t obsess talking about the polls. Oh wait, that was just a note Margie wrote to herself. Thanks everyone for an incredible year and a half of The Pollsters! We love you guys & gals, and glad you’ve enjoyed our regular polling deep dive & bad jokes.
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This week we talk to The Pollsters' version of SNL's Justin Timberlake or Tom Hanks: Survey Monkey's Mark Blumenthal! He updates us on all thinks Monkey. The Survey Monkey map The Survey Monkey Blog Mark's piece on likely voter modeling More on Survey Monkey's methodology Follow Mark on Twitter
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It’s your lucky day! We’re doing a special Monday episode since we may not be able to find time later in the week. So check out our Senate-sational special! Aldo, don't orget to follow @margieomero & the #walmartmoms hashtag for groups Tuesday night.
Poll of the week Is Trump just making excuses, or might the election be rigged? A new ABC poll finds yet another big party divide. ABC News poll on Clinton’s double-digit lead The senate! The Upshot compares all the the handicappers and forecasters into one giant clip-n-save, or click-n-spin. NBC/WSJ poll on congressional preferences The upshot on Senate election forecast The New York Times on Senate election poll Pennsylvania The New York Times on Pennsylvania Senate race Politico on Pennsylvania Senate race The New York Times endorsement of Katie McGinty Indiana The New York Times on Indiana Senate race Politico on Evan Bayh’s Collapse Associated Press on Bayh and job hunt Politico on Bayh’s Indiana address New Hampshire The New York Times on New Hampshire Senate race Politico on New Hampshire Senate race North carolina The New York Times on North Carolina Senate race Politico on North Carolina Senate race Missouri The New York Times on Missouri Senate race Politico on Missouri Senate race Nevada The New York Times on Nevada Senate race Politico on Nevada Senate race Florida The New York Times on Florida Senate race We’ve got issues Gallup poll on candidates and key issues Pew Research Center on spouse’s preferences Key Findings It’s never too early to prepare for your next campaign, folks. The trump effect downticket may not be as big as people think. But it’s definitely not helping. And if you’re not feeling like you hear enough about the issues, call your spouse.
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The “Nasty Woman” vs. the “Bad Hombre.” Kristen & Marge are on west coast time. Now who’s the puppet!?
Poll of the week It turns out you are entitled to your own facts. On that we agree, it seems. Pew Research Center on candidates and facts The debates! They’re over! We made it through the final debate. So, uh, anything change? Pew Research center on fact checking CNN/ORC post-debate poll Are you being rigged? Yikes! Will people trust the polling results? Morning Consult on rigging concerns To Russia, with Love Changing views toward Russia among the GOP? What would Reagan say? Morning Consult/Politico poll on Russia Tale of the tapes. Again Huffington Post on sexual assault Gallup poll on sexual assault NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on Trump’s respect for women Washington Post/ABC News poll on Trump’s treatment of women PRRI on imorality and professionalism If kids could vote USA Today on Children’s presidential pick Sesame Street poll on Kindness and kids Key findings: We’re almost there everyone! Surely we can at least agree on how many days are left till the election? (fact check: yes!) Is it okay to call someone nasty, or a bad hombre? Or to shout wrong at someone who isn’t wrong? What if you disagree with them on tax policy? (fact check: no!) Is it okay to fantasize about being in a pre-school election, or to daydream about what shows you’re going to binge watch after the election? (fact check: yes!)
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Well it's pretty crazy out there. Hold onto your crosstabs everyone. And don't forget you can see Margie in LA on 10/20 at the Ace Hotel with the fine folks at KCRW's Left Right & Center. Check it out here.
Poll of the Week There's a reason we're going to focus on the tapes & the debate--it's one of the biggest news stories this year. Politico/Morning Consult National Poll October Surprises The post-debate polling is bleak for Trump, but not quite as volatile as the news. Maybe. Brietbart on post debate poll CNN/ORC poll on the second debate NBC SurveyMonkey poll on the the second debate NBC/WSJ poll on Trump’s tape Politico/Morning Consult on Trump’s tape Huffington Post/HuffPost Pollster on trump’s respect for women SurveyMonkey on Trump’s tapes The Atlantic on Trump and female voters Reuters/Ipsos Poll on Clinton’s marriage FiveThirtyEight poll on gender gap YouGov/Economist Poll on gender gap NBC/WSJ poll on GOP’s action on Trump Politico/Morning Consult on GOP’s action on Trump Morning Consult on Trump’s loyal supporters McMuffin-mentum Mmm. McMuffins. Kristen's Muffin-map is driving Twitter crazy. Deseret news/Y2 Analytics poll on McMullin Are you going crazy? You're not the only one feeling stressed out about this election. But are you the only one who believes a conspiracy theory? Washington Post on unproven rumors Washington Post on perceived partisan biases Politico on Trump’s mental health toll NYT Upshot: Your therapist may lean blue Candy binge In times like these, we turn to candy. Influenster: each state’s Halloween favorite Key Findings Let’s not get the message muddled here. The tapes are not about cursing, but about assault. That could explain some of the differences in results we’re seeing. And while the impact on the race is clear--the impact on the GOP’s fortunes...too soon to say. News is moving faster than public opinion, and public opinion moving faster than pollsters. Is the election giving you stress? Are you binge eating candy and McMuffins? Talk to the pollsters. Tell us how that makes you feel.
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Hey we’re on Spotify now! Go check us out. Like ABC/This Week on Facebook so you can see our (mostly) weekly Facebook Live videos. And have you checked out our new website yet? Poll of the Week: Do you need an information diet Clay Johnson, call your office. NORC on news consumption The Taxman is coming, just not for Donald Trump People care about Trump’s tax returns. But will it change their vote? SurveyMonkey on tax returns Quinnipiac on tax returns YouGov/Economist on top news stories Return of the TV dads Dads square off, probably not changing the race much. ABC/SSRS on VP candidates NBC/SurveyMonkey on VP candidates CBS on Luntz focus group CNN focus group in Richmond CNN/ORC Instant poll Swing kittens say meow The forecast is bleak, and we’re talking Donald, not Matthew Huffington Post has a new forecast Huffington Post forecast Huffington Post methodology Slate collection of forecasts While the climate is, partisan Pew reveals major party differences in views toward climate change. Kristen sees, uh, a silver lining. Pew on Climate Change Here’s something really scary Get ready for Halloween folks! Basically that means dressing like a superhero. NRF on Halloween costumes NRF on Halloween spending Key Findings People are looking for more information sources about buying stuff than about politics. And that’s even before last night’s rockin’ VP debate! Even a bunch of kittens could tell you that Clinton’s had a post-debate bounce. The candidates may not be talking much about climate change, but don’t worry, there are still deep partisan divides anyway. You know what’s really scary? That political costumes are going to be pretty popular this year.
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Hey guys! We’ll be on Spotify very soon. Check out our new website www.thepollsters.com & send us very nice emails about how we can make the resource page better!
Poll of the week! Or maybe, “relevant pitch” of the week? How might you find independents on radio? Nielsen sent us some answers. Nielsen data on CNBC Snap judgment So we had a debate. Who are you going to trust to find out who won: the polls? Or the other polls? Real Clear Politics on Luntz focus group WP informal focus group CNN/ORC post-debate poll PPP post-debate poll Morning Consult post-debate poll NBC/Survey Monkey post-debate poll Echelon poll YouGov post-debate poll Newer PPP post-debate poll NYT on post-debate polling Donald Trump on post-debate polling Brendan Nyhan on fact checking Transition team Is this election bringing out the worst in people? Is it bringing out anyone to vote?l Monmouth poll on bringing out the worst Gallup on compromise Gallup on high hopes Gallup on interest in voting Pew on views toward the media Mediaite on media vs putin Grilled cheese, spicy mochas, & the Simpsons Does Carl mainsplain to Mrs. Krabapple? Washington Post on grilled cheese The Simpsons, graphed on reddit Key Findings: Did you have “poll denialism” on your debate bingo card! We will next time for sure. And everyone get your transition team ready. Not for the next president, but for the rest of america. Never mind m or manterrupting during the debate, what has been happening with the Simpsons? We had no idea. Maybe Homestar Runner is better?
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Hello new listener! Come for the 2016 polling, stay for the Brangelexit data. Check out our new website and follow us on Twitter or Facebook. We’re constantly pushing out the latest polls, and your reaction helps us figure out what to talk about.
Poll of the week: Millennials & their furbabies. Forget about crazy cat ladies, there are now fun catboys. And did you know Kristen wrote the book on Millennials? Washington Post on Millennials & pets The Selfie Vote 2016 The polls have tightened, but then maybe they’ve loosened? And new open end data from both Pew and Gallup. Slate average Gallup on news recall NYT on Clinton Foundation Pew on how people feel about the election YouGov on candidate extremism Gallup on confidence in government Pollsters weigh in on weighting This was super cool! Really excited both of our firms got to be a part of it. NYT/Upshot on weighting Brangelexit Um, we’re going to need some fresh data here. IMDB poll on Brad vs Angie Brangelina as a nickname YouGov Most admired people of 2016 Vanity Fair/60 Minutes who should adopt your children Key findings: Who says Millennials are selfish? Half of millennial guys have cats! Maybe for Clinton no news is good news. If the polls are getting a little too tight for comfort, maybe you need to lose weight? If you don’t like the results of your poll. Just wait? Always good to see fellow pollsters weigh in? Who is going to get more of a post-breakup bounce: Brad or Angelina? We’re on it!! And welcome new listeners!! Tweet us your complaints.
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Mad-Man style, or Rhoda Morgenstern, either way we love this Medium post & review from Michelle Thomas of Javelina. We forgot all about the cat videos!
Poll of the week: News alerts! Are you living in a media bubble? You might be if you think everyone is living in a bubble. And how many people get news alerts on their phone? Pew on news alerts NYT/Upshot on "echo chamber" Gallup on lack of trust in the media Breaking: Morbid, er, Morning Consult poll This new Morning Consult poll leaves no stone unturned on the presidential health issue. Morning Consult on candidate health Morning Consult crosstabs 2016! Today’s forecast is... Today’s forecast looks a lot like yesterday’s forecast. Huffington Post/pollster averages Slate's poll of poll of polls The Upshot vs. Princeton vs. 538 FiveThirtyEight forecasts RCP vs. Huffington Post average methodology The "Primary Model" Non-voters & new voters. More myths debunked Once you look at these Pew numbers, get ready to re-read The Selfie Vote. Pew on changing party compositions NYT/The Upshot on non-voters The one poll in the world you could predict with certainty The internet meme that will never die. The Daily Mirror on Harambe McHarambeFace Key Findings Today’s forecast looks a lot like yesterday’s forecast. But it’s not clear if it’s time yet to get out your umbrella. Lots of myth debunking going on out there. Check your assumptions folks! It’s a good thing we never did an online poll about the name of our show, or it may in fact become those two hens. When 2016 gets a little crazy, reflect on some simpler times, with cat videos, old 70s sitcoms, or back episodes of The Pollsters.
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With Labor Day behind us, we need to turn to Satchmo to make sense of the polling. Don’t miss our interview with the Monkey Cage’s John Sides. If you’re looking for some extra-credit reading on gerrymandering, check out this or this story. Back to school! Hit the books. What makes a student love their alma mater? Feeling like a professor “cares about people like you”--almost like in politics. And hit the tablets, or something. Gallup - Alumni Giving Pew - Reading 2016: Unskew this podcast Tuesday wasn’t any ordinary day. It was a day with a lot of new, sometimes divergent, polling. We try to figure out what’s going on. Huffpost Pollster - 2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Huffpost Pollster - 2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson CNN/ORC @Pretefunkera tweet Washington Post/Survey Monkey Everyone is miserable Is the campaign still getting you down? We feel you. But have you made a headline juicier than your data suggests? Well, we’re going to call you out then. Pew - Which candidate they’re against Gallup - GOP which candidate would be good president Ipsos/The Guardian Polling among Latinos Lots of new polling among Latinos--are there real differences at work, or differences in methodology? Latino Decisions Gallup - Clinton Hispanic Advantage Smaller Among U.S-born Hispanics Washington Post on Latinos Huffpost Pollster - 2016 Florida President: Trump vs. Clinton Huffpost Pollster - 2016 Nevada President: Trump vs. Clinton Washington Post/ABC Poll Is it too late to change our show name to “These Two Hens”? Spoiler: yes. The Guardian - Baby names Key findings: Pollster culture very dominant. It's causing problems. If you don't do something about it, there will be pollsters on every corner. Which, for a lot of people, might be an improvement over following this election. If you really need a break--hit the books, or hit the tablet. Not such a catchy name. But you know what is a catchy name? The Pollsters, and we don’t regret it one bit.
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Media polls not enough data for you? Then you'll want to dig even deeper with John Sides & the crack political science team at The Monkey Cage blog. They're one of the top myth-debunkers around, and we were happy to talk to John about some of his past and future proejcts. Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post John Sides on Twitter
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Margie squeezes in a few hours of staycation, while Kristen is on the road. But even during a slow week there are still polls to amaze or depress you. Poll of the week: smells like teen spirit? What do Milwaukee voters think the election smells like? Um, nothing you'd want to turn into a scratch-n-sniff sticker. Hart/Annenberg school focus group 2016 The race is tightening! But just a little. Washington Post/ABC News poll HP: Trump vs. Clinton two-way HP Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson David Plouffe tweets More HP polls HP on college educated whites WP on the White Catholic vote HP/YouGov on ads vs news HP on voters' trust Trump immigration policy? All of them. Says who? Is it a softening, or a hardening? Kristen's examiner column Pew study on immigration Gallup on immigration Divisions on guns getting wider Tier-one versus tier-two policies, while party differences widen, Pew study on guns Back to school! Have you gotten all your polling done in time for the first day Gallup on satisfaction with schooling Retailmenot Key findings: Whether the race is narrowing or staying stable, as far as Margie’s concerned, it’s always time to panic about a potential president trump. There’s common ground on immigration--but maybe not on trump’s different positions on immigration. Meanwhile, don’t worry folks, were also becoming increasingly partisan on guns and education. So there’s that. At least my back to school shopping is done! And this i can promise you: it will be decades before i spend more on my children’s clothes than on my own.
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We talk to NBC political reporters Benjy Sarlin & Leigh Ann Caldwell about their great new longform piece, where they interview a series of GOP leaders on the post-Trump future for the GOP. Listen to the show, read the piece, watch their video & then read the previous installments of their series. NBC's the future of the GOP Benjy on twitter Leigh Ann on twitter
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Our Ron Brownstein interview is the top-downloaded interview we’ve ever done. Thanks everyone! But don’t make our Chuck Todd & Charlie Cook interviews jealous--they are #39 & #44, respectively, if you want to go back & take a listen. (Gotta catch em all.) And as always you can write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook to see all the polls we're looking at each week.
Poll of the week: All of them. We have a new thing, the Brianna Keilar award for Truth Telling in Polls. It belongs to [dramatic pause…] Brianna Keilar & Michael Cohen "Says who?" WP on why you need to follow The Polls. All of them. Politico on poll deniers after Patrick Murray Trump sand attacks! This is what actual fake research looks like (Triumph the Insult Comic Dog) Process front & center. Never mind the issues when there is palace intrigue, rigged polls, and rigged polling booths! HP on Kellyanne Conway behind the scenes HP on Kellyanne Conway on secret Trump voters HP on YouGov poll on Trump campaign operation Gallup shows worry about vote fraud Pew on vote fraud worries 2016 Oh, the polls. Still bad news for Trump, with a few tiny exceptions. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-general-election LA Times poll HP/David Rothschild on LA Times poll Trump loves LA Times poll! NBC/Survey Monkey on military families Burning down the House! And the Senate! One battleground state at a time! Is it too late to turn the R next to your name on the ballot to some sort of emoji? Larry Sabato on the Senate Charlie Cook on the Senate HP averages for the Senate HP generic ballot Daily 202 & Rothenberg on House landscape Time to get out of dodge, wherever that is You know where the Statue of Liberty is. But how about the Grand Canyon? Conde Nast Traveler poll
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So glad you guys liked our interview with Ron Brownstein--we did too! Also, we have 96 reviews, can we get to a nice round 100? You can write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook to see all the polls we're looking at each week.
Poll of the week: DC Insiders, they’re just like us! Hey, how come we didn’t get called? Examiner-Echelon Insider poll 2016 The landslide got you down? Well, must be those trash-can polls. Huffington Post/Pollster 2-way Huffington Post/Pollster 3-way NYT/Upshot on 2016 WashPost on Trump's chance NYT/Upshot what a Clinton landslide would look like WashPost on Gallup study Gallup study on what predicts Trump support NBC/Marist battleground state polls FiveThirtyEight senate polls USA Today/RTV on Millennials Next up: debates The debates are coming, and voters already have some preferences. Pew on debate topics Fix The Debates & IQUS Get ready to go back to work everyone: Jobs Are you on vacation, or wrapping up a summer job? Margie & Kristen had some formative jobs that we relive in real-time. Gallup on women and jobs FiveThirtyEight and summer jobs Most popular industries Key Findings: This is election is so crazy, it’s even making Kristen angry. That’s tough y’all! Where does pollster rate on top industries? What about twitter troll? What about podcast guest-host? And don’t let the landslide get you down. Not with so many podcasts to catch up on.
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Listen & take notes, folks, in our latest interview-only show. Ron Brownstein (The Atlantic/CNN) shows us what it's like to talk polling. And he hadn't even had his morning coffee yet! Ron Brownstein on Twitter. Brownstein's stories at The Atlantic. As always, don't forget to write a review of the show on iTunes or Stitcher, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook to see all the polls we're looking at each week.
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Welcome new listeners! Only polling can answer the tough questions, like “What are you smoking?” Don't forget to write a review of the show on iTunes or Stitcher, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook to see all the polls we're looking at each week.
Poll of the week: A low-grade Olympic fever? Are you watching the Olympics? If you’re not, maybe you’re not alone. Gallup on Olympic viewing 2016: Make no mistake about it: Clinton is up in the polls. It’s not a skew, it’s not a bias. It’s really happening (at least right now). Huffington Post average: 2-way Huffington Post average: 3-wayPew on Split Districts NBC/Marist battleground states RCP on Georgia FiveThirtyEight: are the polls skewed? Walmart Moms are back! Preaching to the choir: Voters are hearing politics from the pulpit, but not about specific candidates. Pew on politics from the pulpit Lighten up! People are smoking fewer cigarettes, more pot, and more beer than ever. Gallup on cigarettes Gallup on marijuana Beer is fave adult beverage. Key findings: Hat tip to Ariel Levy from the Huffington Post, for coming up with some Olympic polling events: tracking & fielding; horseracing; synchronized dialing. How can Olympic fever be down with events like these?! Everyone is feeling disgusted with politics--it’s on Facebook, it’s at church, it’s on your phone right now. But that doesn’t mean the polls are skewed. Which pollster would you most want to share a beer (or glass of wine) with? We hope that’s us!
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We talk to Anna Greenberg from GQRR about the one polling question she's never asked, how Democratic and Republican pollsters differ, the value of a graduate degree, and challenges facing women in the industry. Anna Greenberg on Twitter. GQRR's website.
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We’ve recovered from the convention, but have the polls? Take it away, Kristen’s iPhone... Poll of the week: Is 2016 making you wish you had a brain implant?. Do brain chip implants make you worried? What if they don’t actually work? Pew: Americans wary of biomedical enhancements for the human body 2016: A Clinton bounce, a Trump crater, and smod it all to heck. Clinton has a post-Philly bounce. But who knows what’s even happening anymore. Ah, 2016, Huffington Post analysis of post-convention bounce Huffington Post trackers Kristen's article in the examiner Margie’s latest dial-test poll from PSB Research Pew on few with cross-party friends From the Washington Post/Monkey Cage PPP on SMOD PPP on Harambe Mansplain this to us. Men are experts on being experts. Maybe the answer is--affirmative action? Wash Post: Men cite themselves more than women do Gallup on gender and affirmative action ISO: Someone who likes Dr. Pepper, crying, guns, and avocado Can your OK Cupid profile predict your party leanings? Well, do you like Broad CIty or Clint Eastwood? OK Cupid on politics Key findings: We're old enough to remember when just the polling seemed crazy. Men are experts, just ask them! There aren’t many places where Democrats and Republicans can hang out. It’s not in person. It’s not OK Cupid. It’s just The Pollsters.
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Whit Ayres is the head of North Star Opinion Research and was Marco Rubio's pollster. We talk to him about the GOP convention, what he got wrong on Trump, and the future of the Republican Party. Whit Ayres on Twitter North Star
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Kristen is in Cleveland! Calling in from radio row. Margie is in the soundbooth, eager to hear the gossip. Poll of the week: Elvis is in the building. There comes a time in every person's life when you must decide between an office dog and virtual reality glasses. PSB/Dell Poll 2016: Well, this is going well. Cleveland is like Glastonbury. Except in all the ways it's not. Gallup:Pence's Effect on Trump Victory in November CBS Poll finds most voters are unfamiliar with Pence Real Clear Politics: How favorable is Pence? Aggregators’ predictions FiveThirtyEight election forecast NY Times: Clinton has 76% chance of winning Race to the bottom? Margie is turned off by some of the RNC rhetoric. What does Kristen think? Monmouth poll: Black Lives Matter has worsened racial tensions 74% think race relations are bad in US Voters favor Clinton on issues of race relations Americans are less optimistic about blacks’ opportunities Non-Hispanic whites are only group to favor Trump’s immigration policies
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Veteran Dem pollster Geoff Garin comes into the soundbooth to talk about Priorities USA, ad testing, and Donald Trump. Geoff Garin on Twitter. Hart Research.
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GOP pollster Christine Matthews laments the state of the Republican Party. "All that research" on how to talk to women. Ignored. Christine Matthews on twitter.
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While Kristen is tied up with convention coverage, Jon Cohen from Survey Monkey joins us to talk about bringing Silicon Valley computing power to solve polling problems. Find Jon on Twitter. Survey Monkey.
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The folks at the Intelligence Squared US podcast want to fix the debates. We talk to Clea Chang about it. Fix the debates petition IQUS podcast
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The polls are like Pokemon: gotta read them all! Thanks for the great reviews guys, especially to the person who mentioned Joey Lucas. Pokemon! A new reason to keep your phones handy at all times. YouGov Poll Pew Poll on Gamers 2016: Trumpers going to Trump It doesn’t matter what kind of press he gets, Trump still stays close in the polls. Huffington Post 2016 General Election Tracker Washington Post/ABC poll on FBI not charging Clinton Sanders supporters are more likely to back Clinton without third-party candidates Bloomberg/Purple poll on college education and voting tendencies Quinnipiac swing state poll Who gets the “warm bucket of spit” job? Does it matter? Margie’s team did this awesome new simulator. PSB VP Simulator More polling on race, violence, and the police Tragic violence last week. Morning Consult poll comparing police brutality to violence against police Rasmussen - does media encourage attacks on police? Matt K Lewis on cameraphones and violence Cry me a river! John Boehner is a Gender Avenger? YouGov on crying Key findings: Pokemon is a thing! Don’t say we didn’t warn you. Trump! Don’t say we didn’t warn you! Newt Gingrich! Well, consider yourself warned. Shooting by police, and shooting of police--this is the kind of forced-choice question we’re not sure is so helpful. If you want to take a Holly Hunter cry break. Well, America can agree that this is okay.
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To the angry reviewer who complained we do too much advertising and propaganda--this show’s for you! We promote our own stuff, and lament the sad Trumpian state of affairs. Hope you like it.
Poll of the Week: The On-Demand Economy It is more than just a ride to the airport or your lunch delivered. PSB/Burson/Time article on the future of work Full research deck Is there a time machine that can take us to a non-Trump universe? What happens when we change up the competition? HuffPost general election tracker SurveyMonkey: Clinton vs. Not Trump Reuters poll on racial attitudes of candidates’ supporters Kristen contemplates a future for the GOP The Atlantic: most American Christians think they’re victims of discrimination Full PRRI/Brookings report WP/Monkey Cage on authoritarianism Politico Magazine on authoritarianism Lee Greenwood, call your office We hope you’re one of 52% that does this 4th. Gallup poll finds a 16-year low in American patriotism What do Congressional staffers think about their job security after november? There could be major changes in both the Senate and the House. CQ Roll Call: Democratic staffers are increasingly confident Wine & Sushi forever We trust the experts. NYT poll: do nutritionists and the public agree? Key findings: You may think of the on-demand economy is just about being about a taxi to the airport or a sweetgreen salad to your office, but employers are thinking about this trend more carefully. Trump voters--just like Trump--are not your typical Republicans, particularly when it comes to views on race. If we don’t talk about it openly now, we won’t be ready for the post-Trump-ocalypse Elections have consequences, according to DC insiders. That doesn’t mean scoring White House tour tickets, but maybe a change in both the Senate and the House? Hope you celebrated the fourth by being proud to be Americans. And if not, hopefully you ate some wine, sushi, tofu, or hummus, in true, multi-culti American fashion.
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We're traveling this week, but that doesn't mean we haven't gotten your messages or read your reviews! Thanks for the nice words everyone! Poll of the week: Not to say I told you so, but… Remember when we said Democrats would coalesce around Clinton? Of course you do. Washington Post on Donald Trump’s ever worsening month Trump’s Dumpster Fire = a Trumpster Fire The polls are mostly bad news for Trump this week. Whose to blame, if not the pollsters? Washington Post candidate approval polls Gallup on Trump’s support among Republicans Ballotpedia swing state polls Quinnipiac swing state polls Trump blames the pollsters Then Gingrich lashes out at pollsters in Trump’s defense Other countries have more faith in Putin than in Trump Gary Johnson blames pollsters -- how is he doing? Brexit...was it a polling bust? Online polls were right, and telephone polls were very wrong. What is next for the UK when 3 million want to leave? Nate Cohn of the New York Times John Cohen of Survey Monkey Online polls were right about Brexit More than 1 million want to change their vote Gallup American economic reaction to Brexit Opposition for second referendum Do we talk too much about race, or not enough? Is our concentration on race affecting political decisions…? Pew on race in the US Voters’ racial attitudes The Princess Diaries - what the polls say about how much people see Princess Stuff. Playing with princesses may cause girls to avoid important learning experiences that aren’t perceived as feminine or believe their opportunities in life are different as women. Disney princess culture magnifies gender stereotyping Disney princesses change American kids Key Findings Good news for nevertrumpers, but bad news for bernieorbusters. Lots of people want to take on The Pollsters, to which we say, bring it! Measuring bias is always tricky, but there are some sobering differences across party and candidate lines. Maybe Trump needs to play with more princess toys. That way he’ll think his leadership options are limited.
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Last week Margie was on vacation, mucking up the audio & having a hard time relaxing. But we’re back in the soundbooth with some tributes to dads, Brexit, and jingles.
Poll of the week: Father’s Day In honor of Father’s Day in the rear-view mirror, some polls of interest to parents everywhere. If you’re a grumpy US parent, you’re not alone. Quartz on US parental happiness gap Ace Metrix on best Father's Day ad 2016: Trump’s had a bad few weeks. But does it matter? Clinton has the edge in the polls. But it’s not so dramatic. That’s even with the completely bonkers spending disparity. Huffington Post/pollster H2H average Huffington Post/pollster DJT favs Quinnipiac swing state polls Huffington Post/pollster HRC favs Steve Shepard/Politico on candidate favs New polls on guns As we predicted last week, there is lots of new polling out on guns. But can the polls answer why the policies and public opinion don’t seem in sync? YouGov pre/post Orlando polls CNN on guns NBC/Survey Monkey on guns Gallup on guns Update Brexit Trackers Brexit is a nail biter! Can pollsters declare victory no matter what happens? Telegraph on poll modes Telegraph on polling worries Huffington Post/pollster Brexit tracker Economist Brexit tracker Bloomberg Brexit tracker YouGov Brexit by age Pew on Brexit You’re stuck on The Pollsters... Bring back jingles! Well, maybe not all of these jingles. YouGov on most popular jingles Key Findings Have you hugged a parent today? You should! And if you think parenthood is unpopular, you should see Donald Trump. Gun polling vs gun policies continue to flummox Margie. Our predictions: polling is so tight in the UK, many pollsters can declare victory. (Also, Breakfast Beer is about as fun to say as Brexit.) Try this at home: give your friend an earworm by singing 10 different jingles.
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Dialing in from the road: Kristen on her hometown Orlando. Margie on her pet issues of LGBT rights and stronger gun laws. Can this year get any crazier? Polling suggests maybe not.
Orlando’s implications on gun laws, threat of terrorism, and LGBT safe spaces We try to make sense of the gun polling--views on terrorism, on an assault weapon ban, and more. Margie’s picks on how to take action on Orlando Bloomberg Politics National Poll CBS News poll YouGov poll post San Bernardino YouGov poll just before Orlando Pew Research poll on religion and support of LGBT rights Quinnipiac poll on gun laws Pew on guns Gallup on terrorism Gallup on terrorism & guns A bad week for Trump Trump’s had a terrible time in the news this past week. And voters seem to be moving away from him. Real Clear Politics average NBC News poll Yougov/Huffington Post poll with open ends on the candidates Trump thinks he discovered polling Confidence gap What’s this newspaper thing of which you speak? Gallup poll shows low confidence in newspapers Harvard Study of media coverage of the 2016 election From the department of sports Hockey fans are different than basketball fans. And Philly Phanatic fans are different from everyone. YouGov poll on NHL vs NBA fans Public Policy Polling on the Phanatic Key findings: Take some time this week to not only think about the tragedy in Orlando, but about gun violence prevention--all of it. What are you doing this week to reduce gun deaths? At the pollsters, we’ve always known the polls were a big deal, and we value the press--but perhaps we’re alone? Whether you’re a Phillie Phanatic fanatic or an extroverted hockey fan, you probably think this election is crazy--and that’s putting it nicely.
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Courtney Kennedy is the new director of Survey Research at Pew Research Center. When other pollsters and partisans looked at the 2000 exit poll craziness with shock and excitement/despair, Courtney thought "that's so cool!" We talk to her about some of the great experiments Pew is cooking up. Follow Pew here.
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Hi all! We have some great interviews--this week with Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac. And next week we'll have Courtney Kennedy from Pew. Poll of the week: Breaking! People are not freaking out enough about Zika Are you freaking out about Zika? Well, why not? Harvard study on Zika Gurl. We got a candidate. If you think Democrats are not unified, well, just look at the data. YouGov/CA poll The General, AKA: Yikes Gallup has tons of great breakdowns this week of how different parties view the top issues, how Trump and Clinton voters view their own candidates, and how the two square off on everything. The bottom line: neither party is safe. Gallup on candidate traits Gallup on candidate issues Gallup on the top issues Quinnipiac on candidate promises Who’s to judge? Apparently, Trump may not be that far off public opinion as we might’ve hoped. Why is this the final “off-ramp” for Republicans? Haven’t there been lots of other off-ramps? YouGov on judge ethnicity Meanwhile, a real race is happening here! More people voted for their favorite Pokemon than in some states’ caucuses. Margie’s going to need Kristen to decipher this. The Pokemon election Key Findings: Gurrrl. That’s it, that’s all I got. We have a nominee, and Margie’s thrilled that it’s a woman. Meanwhile, don’t get complacent. Team Dumpster FIre has some advantages, and that is worrying. And which is more dangerous--the Zika virus, or Donald Trump? We didn’t know that Pokemon was still a thing, but it seems like Pikachu needs a branding campaign. Call us!
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Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac comes to The Pollsters' soundbooth to talk about polling methodology, students-as-interviewers, and what's next for their 2016 research. Find him on twitter here or here.
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Sorry we didn’t do an interview show this past week. Even pollsters have to take a holiday sometimes. In the meantime, you can catch us on WAMU’s The Big Listen. It’s funny!
Poll of the week: Elect This MTV talks to Millennials, and they just want this election to be over already. We feel ya! Also, they just skip right over podcasts & head to a polling topline YouTube video. MTV "Elect This" release "Infographica" video 2016: Californication and beyond. California is next up on the primary stage. Exciting! Or, maybe not? Meanwhile, other outlets dig deep into the Clinton private email server, the importance of “narrative” and the Rust Belt states. Huffington Post/pollster CA tracker Morning Consult on Clinton email/speeches John Sides/Washington Post/Monkey Cage on early ads Kristen/Echelon Insights/College Republican poll and CNN Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies/Rust Belt voters Monmouth University on Gary Johnson Moral values in decline Are moral values in decline? Voters say yes, but what kinds of values are they talking about? And can you find something morally unacceptable but do it anyway? Gallup on moral values in decline Gallup on moral values by religion Gallup on top priority for next President Five stars for all you happy travelers Margie is going to turn over a new leaf and write nicer reviews. Kind of like Russians. GetYourGuide shows world's happiest travelers The Atlantic on smiling Kristen has the need for speed Meanwhile, Kristen takes in auto racing, with predictable results. The Harris Poll on America's favorite sports Key findings Millennials are more engaged this election cycle I guess that's some political lemonade. It's dig into the data week! Although it all still points to trump being damaged but strong. What kind of moral values do you have if you're not prioritizing things like cloning, abortion or gay marriage? The kind shared by 98% of the electorate. Kristen is checking out new sports and I'm going to think about writing only kind reviews. But we'll do it all with smiles.
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We’re back in the soundbooth--no noisy hotel hallways this time! And check us out this weekend on The Big Listen--a podcast (and actual WAMU broadcast) about podcasts. We really enjoyed talking to Lauren. As always, don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter.
Poll of the week: get the government out of our bathrooms Voters in this recent NBC/WSJ poll show many don’t want any type of government in their bathrooms--state law or federal intervention. And very high don’t knows on how people feel about transgender use of bathrooms.
Should you panic? Uh, no? Last week when we discussed the effect Sanders might be having on Clinton’s general election performance, we didn’t have a lot of data. But there have been a few more polls this week suggesting Democrats may in fact be slightly more unified than they were this time in 2008. The new CBS/NYT poll shows far more Republicans are divided than Dems, and far more feel Clinton can unite party than Republicans say the same about Trump. And more Sanders voters say they’d vote for Clinton than Clinton voters said they’d vote for Obama same time in 2008.Greg Sargent from the Washington Post has a good writeup on this as well. Gallup also shows both Clinton and Sanders voters don’t think Sanders hurting their party.
Perhaps the dialogue among Democratic insiders is different from that around Democratic voters. This wouldn’t be unlike how Republican insiders have felt much more strongly about Trump than have Republican voters, even if, as Gallup shows, Republicans are favorable, but still not totally pleased with their nominee.
Meanwhile, everyone hates everyone The latest wave of polls suggests there are lots of “nose-holders” and Trump and Clinton are tied. Can this be real? Can we trust the polls this far out? Many pollsters and poll-watchers have weighed in. The latest NBC/WSJ poll says Clinton and Trump are currently the least popular front-runners in the poll’s history. The ABC/WSJ poll said the same.
There are also some new subgroup polls in the mix, such as this recent breakout of Latinos, and this new poll of the AAPI community.
To sort through the onslaught of data, Norm Ornstein & Alan Abramowitz write in NYT to “stop the insanity” Susan Powter-style, and Jon Cohen and Mark Blumenthal of Survey Monkey respond. Mark and Jon raise an important point--we need to be focusing on why Trump is doing well, and less on whether he is tied, or up a few, or down a few, as in this recent Vox dialogue with pollsters.
Ask a millennial! Millennials want marriage & kids, but maybe not at the same time? As our resident Millennial, Kristen (author of “The Selfie Vote”) is not surprised. But the number of Millennials living with their parents--well, that’s pretty high. And don’t get us started on Europe. This year’s summer song. Billboard has a poll of the top song of summer. We don’t know if the answers will surprise you, but they surprise Margie, who clearly needs to get out more. And if you want to be part of Kristen’s musical tastes forever, you have a few more months.
Key findings: People want the government out of their bathrooms. Seems reasonable enough. Meanwhile--the 2016 race is the opposite of reasonable. But the polling is kind of consistent--so why is that what everyone is freaking out about? I’m going to freak out if my children are living with me when they’re 35. How did Justin Bieber come up again in this podcast? We can’t even blame Kristen--we blame the polls.
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Kristen interview David Rothschild from AAPOR. We know you'll share David's enthusiasm for talking about the industry, predictive markets, non-probability sampling, and the "innovator's dilemma." Find more about David here.
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What the heck is AAPOR? Well, just a whole lot of awesome! Kristen gives us a report. And we report from a hotel hallway, so apologies for the sounds of conference-goers in the background.
Poll of the week: What’s in a name? Washington Post updates an older poll of Native Americans about the name of the local football team. There’s a difference between finding a term offensive and being bothered about a team’s use of it. Regardless, it seems like good news for Dan Snyder. And the methodology is just as interesting.
2016: We’ve got questions! Polls have answers (maybe) Okay, Trump may be the nominee, but can he really win? Is he bringing new Republicans to the polls? Or is he going to hurt the Republican party downballot (& Ryan)? Is Sanders hurting Clinton? Who should Clinton pick as her VP? What about a third party? What do other pollsters & poll-watchers say? “You’re going to die” The national race between Clinton and Trump is narrowing, per Huffington Post. Dems want Sanders as HRC’s VP, says Rasmussen Is sanders hurting clinton? Margie gives a shrug emoji, and not sure what to make of Huffington Post fav ratings Steve Shepard on pollsters trying to figure out trump, with smart thoughts from Kristen & Mark Blumenthal. Breaking! Trump has a pollster! An actual pollster! Who some say woudl be able to say “you’re going to die.” Well, that seems like a good skill for 2015! Is Trump expanding the party? (spoiler: no.) Chris Cilizza on “truly independent” poll: “truly terrible.” Meanwhile, is Trump hurting Paul Ryan’s numbers? PPP asks. Pew on the sharing economy Some Americans have done none of these, according to Pew. Margie has done a chunk of them in the last 24 hours. Pew on the sharing economy Graduation gifts: Congrad-uations! Get it? You’re going to get lots of cash, survey says. NRF on graduation spending. Key findings There’s a diff between offensive and bothersome. But I’d love to hear more research about Native Americans think beyond just the team name. Trump’s got a pollster! And it’s not himself! Expect those poll-tested tweets any day now. We truly appreciate people like Chris Cilizza weighing in on poll questions. Truly. Are you a regular part of the sharing economy? That would make you not quite like most Americans? Congrats to our grad listeners! Expect cash! Not from us--from us you can get an RT--but cash from everyone else.
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We talk to Molly Murphy from Anzalone Liszt Grove about polling on issues and being a young woman in the business. Learn more about her here.
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Go find Kristen at AAPOR! And Margie’s Austin tips include the 2nd street warehouse district and South Congress.
Poll of the week Trump is less popular than lice, Nickelback. PPP, you gave us the poll America needed, but didn’t know it wanted. PPP on Trump 2016: Controlled Burn Are Sanders voters going to vote for Trump? And is the general really getting closer already? WV exit polls (Dem side) Quinnipiac battleground poll Survey Monkey/NBC Nate silver goes on tweet rant Longform is hot! People spend more time with longform on their cells than shorter content. Facebook sends more visitors, while Twitter users are more engaged. Pew on media consumption Pew on FB vs. Twitter Socialism is not! Is socialism having its moment? Well, not according to Gallup. Gallup data on socialism and capitalism over time Education: Students don’t think there is too much testing? Unlike everyone else. Gallup poll Swipe left if you want to go on a date to Arby’s. Kristen & Margie are launching a side-hustle of helping with your online profiles. Not really. YouGov on dating app profiles Key findings: If “Make america great again” doesn’t work out, Trump can transition to “Trump: more popular than hemorrhoids” But how popular is trump compared to school testing? Question for further study. Longform is back in! Sort of like other retro habits like canning tomatoes. Or pencils. Is it too early to talk about how too early it is look at general election polling? Not for us! Good thing Margie's not single, because there doesn’t seem to be any dating app for people for Dem women who like white wine & oysters on the half shell.
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After sharing a panel at the Milken Global Conference, Margie corners Michael Dimock, the President of Pew Research Center. They talk about Pew's mission, their latest study comparing online panels, and how he got his start. Check him out on twitter here.
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Folks! Margie has a new gig & we have new mugs. We’re almost totally a real show now. Poll of the Week! Are you Cinco-de-Mayo-ing properly? Do you understand the meaning of Cinco de Mayo? Aside from guacamole & margaritas? Univision poll Indiana results: well, that was interesting. Meet your new nominee, folks. Fun, huh? CNN exit polls Survey monkey/NBC NYT/upshot analysis Who knows? Pew knows! Does your online panel stink? Maybe! Who knows! Well, Pew knows, but isn’t telling you. Common sense media Teens & their smartphones. Yikes! I’m already worried. And i’m the problem! Common Sense Media survey Mother’s day Moms want: a little R&R, and income inequality. PSB/Shriver poll on moms Stacy’s snacks survey
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Top pollsters Celinda & Ed started their partnership at a piano bar. Really! We talk to them about the latest Battleground Poll, plus their views on the industry. Read more about the poll here.
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Would Kristen & Margie swap shoes during a panel? Um, no. Please? Um, still no.
Stop playing the Acela Primary card!
Sanders is hurting Clinton as evidenced by her winning so much? And Trump is playing the crazy man card.
Huffington Post trends Exit polls
Gallup on gender & paying attention
Ask a Millennial! R’s who haven’t read the selfie vote, call your office.
Kristen had a dream that Republicans did nothing to appeal to young voters, and so they slowly became more Democratic. Oh wait.
Harvard IOP poll The Selfie Vote
Surprise! You’re an independent.
Are you an independent, or an “American Independent”? What’s the difference, well...
LA Times./Tulchin/Smith Johnson Research poll
Pop Icon vs. Politician.
Whether it’s Prince or Beyonce, pols vs. pop is a losing battle.
Record labeling
Buzzfeed Prince quiz
Bloomberg Politics/Selzer poll in Iowa
Key findings:
Anyone want to challenge a majority of the electorate & see how turns out in the polls? Deal us in! Meanwhile, it looks like capitalism & wall street may be sleepy issues this election cycle--on both sides of the aisle. Independent--I don’t think that word means what you think it means. Californians, check the fine print! It was Earth Day & all I got was more partisan division. Purple Rain is the Purple One’s top song, polls show. And whether prince or beyonce, pols And speaking of Purple, thanks for three great years @ Purple Strategies (and thanks for the cozy soundbooth Cold Harbor Films)! I’ll have an announcement soon about what’s next.
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Patrick (Kristen's business partner) has a new podcast about the delegate hunt. We talk to him pre-NY about all the fun we're going to have this summer. / Patrick (Kristen's business partner) has a new podcast about the delegate hunt. We talk to him pre-NY about all the fun we're going go have. Listen to his new show "Floor fight" & follow him on twitter here.
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Watch this space! We have interviews, announcements, & travels. Pollsters out in the wild!
Poll of the week. It’s Chevy Chase & you’re not
The snobbiest small town is Chevy Chase & Chevy Chase accessories. Chevy Chase & Chevy Chase Accessories: snobbiest cities
2016: New York: Big wins! Not big changes.
People said the gloves were off, it was testy & harmful. But the polls say otherwise. Meanwhile, Nice Trump didn’t last very long.
Huffington Post average New York exit polls Refinery29 poll of Millennial women Gallup on the contest hurting the party POS & Purple team up on Walmart Moms project
Encryption
People are worried about security, and feel security threats are getting worse. Not surprisingly, few trust the government.
Purple poll for ACT: App Assoc
The fairest juror in America
YouGov on jury duty Politico on jury duty
Organic Valley: You Get Us!
Watch this ad. No seriously, watch it.
Adweek story on Organic Valley
Key findings:
Thank you Organic Valley, for turning our lives into an ad. Using research. If you hit any closer to home you’d be in my linen closet. New York New York! It’s a heckuva Town. Trump is up & Sanders is down. When it comes to encryption, you’re going to have to pry people’s iPhones out of their sweaty, anxious hands. If Kristen is on a jury, it’s just going to give her some time to catch up on the People vs. OJ. If this podcast was an animal or car, what would it be? A chromed-out vintage vespa? A baby penguin? A wild Chincoteague pony? Pizza Rat?
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We talk to Steve Shepard, who covers polling for Politico. We learn how polling journalism has evolved, discuss what's next for 2016, and talk NY political food moments. Follow him on Twitter here.
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Go to the AAPOR conference, folks, and listen to our interview with David Dutwin, an AAPOR methodologist.
Poll of the week: You tax show offs.
Almost everyone says they’ve done their taxes already Well, not Margie.
Retailmenot survey on taxpaying
Democratic contest “heating up” (well, kinda)
Is the Democratic contest: rigged, heated, none of these.
Margie’s CNBC piece HP average
GOP side
Now this is what we call testy! Trump is still in the lead. So what’s he complaining about?
NBC/Marist NY poll
HP average
All the married ladies…
A new Bloomberg Politics/Purple Slice poll of married women shows Trump in some major trouble. This is a group that went for Romney in 2012.
Bloomberg Politics/Purple Slice poll
Meet the contest-ants, again.
So, what happens at the convention? And how will voters react? Even some Kasich/Cruz voters think Trump should get the nod. And even some Trump voters would be open to a non-candidate getting selected.
Marist-McLatchy poll on convention NBC/Survey monkey Quinnipiac national poll on desired traits for candidates
Religious folks: happier, but not necessarily healthier.
Pew compared very religious to less religious folks. Some similarities, some differences. But everyone likes research (hooray!).
Pew study on religion
What is the tracking on zombies?
Millicent the magnificent! YouGov on zombies PPP on zombies
Key findings:
Who are you calling rigged? The Dem contest looks absolutely civilized next to the Republican throwdown. When married women think of Donald trump, it gives them a headache. In case of zombie attack, i’d prefer Millicent or any of her brothers to some of the candidates in the current field. Politics aside, religion seems like a source of happiness for many. With all this free time you have from doing your taxes, should free up some time to write a review of The Pollsters.
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David Dutwin talks about response rates, online vs landline vs. cells vs IVR, and pleads with us all to answer when the pollsters call.
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Thanks everyone who came to our live show at Harvard! Yes, that means you!
Poll of the week: Are we creepy? Slate story on creepiness 2016: Dem side Is it an upset? A reset? Does it matter? Check the slide-y thing: NYTimes "slidey thing" HP trendlines 2016: GOP Remember Margie’s CNBC post? Well there was no gender gap for Trump in WI Exit polls Margie’s CNBC piece Meet the contest-ants! Will the parties unite? Divide? Come to literal or figurative blows? Despite some heated rhetoric around the word “qualified” the Dem side may be in better shape than the GOP side. Big Pew study Marist/McLatchy poll Senate battlegrounds Margie has not one but two races to figure out. WP/UofMD poll on MD senate Quinnipiac on Pennsylvania Ask a millennial: Which of the following things do only Millennials like? --free wifi --clean, non-smoking rooms --their cellies. --buzzfeed --wait, I like all those things too? NYT confirms Millennials like wifi. Mediapost on netflix streaming
When all else fails, ask The Onion We’re experimenting with a new segment called” reading Onion headlines aloud. What do you think? The Onion goes behind the scenes Key findings: The race is headed toward New York. That should calm things down. I feel qualified to say Democrats feel more unified than Republicans. But i only have a few more weeks to call myself an undecided primary voter. This is just another thing on my to-do list stressing me out. We asked Millennials if they like free stuff & clean stuff. They said yes. And when we run out of things to say, which is never, we turn to the Onion.
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The Pollsters to go Harvard's Institute of Politics for their 50th anniversary. Kristen was a fellow, and Margie, uh, once went to camp there. We interview Harvard's resident Millennial expert John Della Volpe. And we take audience questions.
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Hey insiders! We are reviving the micro-assignments & resurrecting one just for you: submit the show to NPR’s Earbud.FM. It’s easy, just go here!
Poll of the week: Change your profile pic if you love The Pollsters
A fifth of people have changed their online photo
Pew study
2016: #NeverTrump or #AlwaysTrump?
We’re overwhelmed with Trump news. Most of it horrible. Today we dig a little deeper on Trump & women, but also delegate math.
Kristen's Examiner column FiveThirtyEight on Trump & women Huffington Post on Trump & women Margie’s CNBC piece on Trump & women
2016: Dem contest maybe not as straightforward as you think
Sanders back in it? Clinton voters more enthusiastic? Gender gap not so prevalent? What’s going on here?
Reuters polling on Dem primary Gallup on enthusiasm Dan Cassino from FDU on sexism in the general election Sanders up in Wisconsin Gallup on enthusiasm & interest in election.
Safety, Security & the Trump Effect
With security in the news post-Brussels, there have been some new polls out about concerns about safety. One’s point of view may depend on
Reuters/Ipsos on torture Quinnipiac "Trump effect"
Kidney donation
Would you donate your kidney to us? How about for 50 large?
Newsweek piece
Key Findings:
Ladies--and men--time to get into formation & get this bully out of the presidential race. Check your assumptions at the door about what’s going on in the Democratic contest. And the Trump Effect--it’s real. Go see a doctor & make sure you don’t leave the house without protection. For 50K, Margie would gladly donate you a kidney. You don’t even need to write us an iTunes review.
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We talk to Scott Tranter with 0ptimus about Big Data, the Rubio campaign, and how Republicans have advanced their data skills. Find them at 0ptimus.com (that's with a zero, not an O), or Scott on Twitter @stranter.
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Don’t forget to listen to our recent interview with Nate Cohn from the NYT/Upshot--he dishes on the headlines to one of his stories recently, talks about great graphics, and more.
Poll of the week!
Boaty McBoatface beating David Attenborough for the name of a new ship. At least it’s also beating “I love big boats & I cannot lie.”
NERC Name Our Ship
Exit polls or it didn’t happen!
How did the polls do this past Tuesday? And what’s next for the sleepy-town portion of the primary?
AZ GOP poll Wisconsin GOP poll California poll Margie & Patrick (Kristen's biz partner) & others in fivethirtyeight
A poll you may want to punch in the face
Wallet Hub/Survey Monkey YouGov/HP on Trump rally violence Quinnipiac on Trump rally violence Gallup on Trump favs Trump vs. Clinton general election Bloomberg/Selzer
You scratch my SCOTUS & I’ll scratch yours
Merrick Garland polling shows he’s on track with past successful nominees. But there’s probably more to it than that.
NYT/CBS on SCOTUS Gallup on Garland vs other past nominees
From the department of obvious
Women want a job that pays more. Just like men. Go figure.
HBR on Millennials leaving their jobs The Upshot/NYT on careers losing value
Thank you Easter bunny
Does your family have a plan?
National confectioners assoc poll
Key findings:
Boaty McBoatface might have a better chance of stopping Trump at this point. Is Trump inciting violence? Responsible for violence? Or making people poll about violence? Sadly, even these questions divide us. In the coming weeks, we’ll turn to something surprisingly less controversial--the Supreme Court vacancy. What do women want? Same thing as men. What do all parents want this Easter? A plan to keep the candy under control. Good luck with that!
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Kristen & Margie are both traveling, but we take time out to talk to Nate Cohn from The New York Times/The Upshot. He tells us about data journalism, data visualization, headline writing, and what's next in his 2016 coverage.
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The Pollsters: We’re everywhere! Check out Kristen in Elle, check us out in The Onion’s A/V Club, and check us out in-person at the Newseum.
Poll of The Week: The Robots. They’re Coming.
The robots are coming for you. Just maybe not for us.
Pew on robots
The Superest of Tuesdays
A great night for Trump, a great night for Clinton, a great night for polling, and a bad day for all of us.
CNN results and exit polls Huffington Post primary polling Trump delegates in Chicago Trump delegates in Chicago, pt2 Trump delegates in Chicago, pt3 Huffington Post general election matchups Monmouth poll on Trump violence
Welcome Spring!
People have attributed this warmer winter to climate change.
Gallup on climate change
What the data say, or says, about the Oxford comma
FiveThirtyEight uses math to explain English.
Key findings
When it comes to polling, and The Pollsters, the hits just keep on coming. We may not welcome our new Trump overlord, but we do welcome our new robot overlords. And robots do anything about climate change? b/c that’s what people think is behind this warm weather. The data are clear--the Oxford comma is the winner.
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Christy Quirk left political polling behind to travel the world doing research in conflict zones. We track her down in Nice. Check her out on Twitter.
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Do you need an excuse to watch the new F/X OJ Simpson series? And do you need more yoga, more podcasts, or more women commentary? On all fronts, we got you covered.
Michi-can or Michi-can’t trust the polls?
The Sanders Michigan upset had a lot of folks doing their usual polling handwringing. But don’t panic!
FiveThirtyEight on MI Politico on MI WP on Michigan HP/Pollster on Michigan FiveThirtyEight on Sanders vs. Clinton voters
NeverTrump?
What can we say about Trump and his supporters? Does he do well because of his hateful language, or despite it?
Morning Consult YouGov/HP Trump question at the Democratic debate WP study on Trump voters Gallup on each GOP candidate's voters WP study on authoritarianism
We are the 14-49%!
C’mon producers/hosts, you can do better! Studies show between 14-49% of 2016 prime-time AM/PM talkers are women.
VOX/CAWP study of women talkers
You are the 21%!
Hey, podcasts are totally a thing now. Forget the Serial effect, more like The Pollsters effect.
Edison Research infinite dial
Just breathe
Margie went to Tulum for relaxation, and she found...polling.
Yoga Journal poll
Key Findings
The moral of the Michigan michigoss: 1) we need more polling! and 2) we’re going to get more polling! Is Trump doing well because people are responding to racist language? or because they’re responding to his clarity of message? Or because they hate the establishment? No matter the answer, isn’t it time for all hands on deck? Remember you are already on the cutting edge of two trends: listening to women commentators and podcasting. If primary season is still getting you down, try some yoga, where women rule, and actual hand size is sometimes relevant, not some childish insult.
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We talk to historian Peter Shulman, who regularly travels in the polling hot tub time machine to find public opinion artifacts. Check out his twitter handle @histopinion.
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The Pollsters is now twice a week! You may not be able to stop Donald Trump, but you are able to encourage us to change our format. We’ve gone from Super Tuesday to Walking Dead Wednesday--we’re running on fumes, folks. Sorry!
Super Tuesday, Wacky Wednesday
NYT has the best way to look at the exit poll data. Pay attention, data viz folks! Dems & GOP.
From the Way Back Machine of last week: Bloomberg/Purple primary GOP poll that asked about pope vs. trump. Margie was wrong!! Meanwhile, Melania. And meanwhile, Michigan.
Cosmo: Ask A Millennial!
Cosmo/Millennial women poll. How about next time they Ask a Millennial?
Ask a Reddit Bro:
Not many people use Reddit, but those who do get their news there.
Pew on Reddit & news consumption
Oscars so...underpolled?
Oscars seem to beat the Grammys as far as relevance, but maybe not as far as diversity?
YouGov on oscars
Key findings:
Lots of voting, lots of exit polls, but maybe the race is exactly in the same spot as it was Monday. If the Pope can’t defeat Trump, then only the entire country workign together can do it. Cosmo: Some polling tips to make your audience go wild! Next time: ask a Millennial! Meanwhile, if you want to know where the bernie dudes are, check Reddit. Oscars so...Important? White? Over? Long? E, all of the above, please!
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It's our first move into our new twice/week format, with our interview with John Aristotle Phillips of Predictit. We dig into the world of political predictive markets, and talk about John's career building voter technology, and his early start into politics.
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The polls have closed, and the responses are in: 39% want a longer show that combines interviews with our regular briefing & 52% want a sep show for the interview. and 9% said “fewer interviews, bah humbug!” So--you’ve spoken! And we’re listening. So starting next week we’ll have two episodes a week: one with interviews & one without.
Number of the week:
Is feminism anti-men. Sadly, some men think so. We’re not anti-men, we want what you got!
YouGov on feminism
NV in our rear-view mirror. Where to next?
Echelon calls SC using IVR. Pollsters get NV right after all. The GOP circus is headed to Texas, Florida & Ohio. The Dem circus is headed to Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma & Massachusetts. Get ready!
OH GOP poll/Quinnipiac FL GOP poll/Quinnipiac Echelon Insights on Medium/SC poll TX GOP poll TX GOP poll/Monmouth Fox national Dem poll HuffPo Primary averages HuffPo General averages
Latino Decisions
The news out of NV for both contests was what happened with the Latino vote. But Latinos are far from monolithic, entrance polls are still polls, and both Pew and the Washington Post/Univision add context.
Washington Post/Univision poll Pew on Millennials & Latinos McLatchy on NV Dem battle over Latinos Trump winning Latinos in NV
SCOTUS
I guess we’ll need to do a weekly SCOTUS segment? There’s lots of new polling.
HuffPo on question wording Pew on SCOTUS PPP on OH, PA SCOTUS impact
Apple of the FBI’s eye
Hey! We found an issue on which Ds and Rs agree!
Pew on Apple vs. FBI
Ask a Millennial:
What big news about Millennials almost beat “man sneaks into luntz focus group” on our Facebook page? We ask our resident Millennial: Kristen. Although perhaps on this front Margie is more like a Millennial?
USA Today on wine The Selfie Vote
Even dog-owners don’t want dogs in bars.
Dogs in a bar: no. Dogs at a dog-happy hour at a bar? Uh, maybe? Cats a grocery store? No! America, you’ve spoken.
No dogs at a bar, says YouGov
Key findings!
Buckle your seat belts for March Madness! Even by next week we’ll have a clearer idea where the race is going. But no one knows right now where the November race is going--don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Meanwhile, the SCOTUS fight is already heated & it’s barely even started. Other things not heated: Apple vs. the government. Dogs at bars. Meanwhile, Millennials aren’t all bad. They drink wine don’t they?
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Listeners! We have a question. Well, actually a survey. We have so many wonderful interviews queued up. But sometimes the interviews get a little long. Do you want them integrated into longer regular weekly episodes? Or as standalone episodes, meaning shorter episodes twice a week? Take our Twitter poll: @thepollsters.
Poll of the week: Now Fear This!
Now that people are coming to terms with a Trump nomination somewhere between likely to certain, some pollsters are asking how people feel about this: Scared? Or really really Scared? As often in this Presidential race, we turn to Canada.
Canadian poll on fear USA Today/Suffolk on fear
Dem Side: Firewall?
Does HC have a firewall? And if so, is it Nevada, SC, Super Tuesday, Super Delegates? Something else? We thought we’d have to wait all the way till Saturday for some more public polling in NV but PHEW! There is some.
CNN/ORC NV poll Twitter NE voter sentiment, study shows Huffington Post/Pollster: NV Dem contest Huffington Post/Pollster: SC Dem contest Huffington Post/Pollster: National Dem contest NBC/Survey Monkey national poll with race breakouts Gallup on Dem candidate favs by race
GOP side: Fireproof?
Trump continues to breathe fire & not get burned. He can be a 9/11 Truther, or an Internet Troll, it simply doesn’t matter. And his base in SC seems ready to go even farther.
Huffington Post/Pollster: National GOP contest Huffington Post/Pollster: SC GOP contest PPP Poll in SC Bloomberg/Purple SC focus group
The Supremes
No new polling (yet!) on the all but certain Scalia replacement showdown. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t something from the archives!
Gallup on Scalia, Supreme Court
You guys forgot too.
We kinda snoozed last week by not mentioning the Grammys, Valentine’s Day, OR President’s Day. But it looks like we’re not alone.
Rasmussen on President's Day YouGov on the Grammys NRF on Valentine’s Day experiences
Key Findings
The Democratic race is narrowing, but can it narrow fast enough for Sanders? The Republican race is winnowing, but can it winnow enough to defeat Trump? Whatever candidate you fear, we all fear week-long stretches without polling. Soon the other half of America will be hearing a lot more about the late Justice Scalia. Did you miss the Grammy’s? President’s Day? Polls show like us, you probably did too.
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With New Hampshire in our rear-view mirror, Pollsters, take a bow. And then take a moment to write a review on iTunes, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.
In New Hampshire, the winner is: Pollsters!
The pollsters were right this time around. Are you surprised? We’re not!
Decision-Desk HQ Final exit polls Joe Lenski from Edison Huffington Post/Pollster trends
We’re all news junkies now
Pew says almost everyone is getting news about 2016. (Hey, but what about podcasts?)
2016! You can’t escape it!
We’re all revolutionaries now
People seem open to a “political revolution” but also fear big government. Try reconciling that.
Vox/morning consult
Ask a Millennial!
Do Millennial women just go to the candidates “where the boys are”? We discuss.
Jill Filipovic article The Selfie Vote
Key Findings
Take a bow, pollsters! Just like about 7 or so remaining candidates, we live to fight another day. And by the way, be thankful that person breathing down your neck while you’re crunching the numbers is not ALL OF AMERICA. Because then you’d be Joe Lenski. We asked a Millennial if young women vote according to where the boys are. She said no. I’m sure this means this won’t come up again. People are more worried about big government than big business. But yet want to expand government. One of the many reasons nearly all of America is gripped to the news this election season.
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We made it to our 50th episode! If you like what we’re doing, don’t forget to write a review on iTunes, submit our show to NPR’s earbud.fm, or on @thepollsters on Twitter & Facebook.
The polls of the week: Good news/bad news for Trump
A day without Trump polling in the news, is like a day without, uh, Trump polling in the news.
The Trump effect on federal employees Bloomberg/Purple on Trump shooting someone
What happened in Iowa?
We took a break from listening to pollsters to listen to voters. And the lesson was...the pollsters were wrong? Is the sky really falling? We walk through six theories and observations.
FiveThirtyEight on post-Iowa polling FiveThirtyEight on Iowa being hard to poll Media shares blame (Huffington Post) Echelon online sentiment Kristen’s Medium post Washington Post graphic visual of voters Mark Blumenthal & Jon Cohen on their internal data The New York Times on Trump’s polling CNN’s entrance polls Dave Weigel on Ann Selzer “silver standard”
Feminism
What’s better-received “feminism” or “the women’s movement”? Interesting new deep-dive.
Washinton post/Kaiser Full poll The Selfie Vote
Ask a Millennial!
How many Millennials say they’re likely to leave their jobs in the next two years? Maybe not as many as you hope?
Deloitte annual study of Millennials
Happy Birthday Super Bowl--And Us!
This weekend is super bowl 50! And we celebrate The Pollsters 50! Most people are celebrating with a party, and perhaps a new outfit or television.
NRF’s latest survey
Key Findings
Iowa, it was nice knowing ya. And poll-skeptics, just try to make it to NH without getting another fix Ask a Millennial--to stay at their jobs? Happy birthday Super Bowl! And happy birthday to us!
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Last show till Iowa! It’s like the night or two before Christmas. Are you excited?
Poll of the week:
From the department of “correlation doesn’t mean causation” we bring you some good news for moderate drinkers.
Gallup on drinking and depression
Iowa. Iowa. Iowa.
Sanders has momentum in Iowa. Trump seems to be consolidating. What’s the role of endorsements? Or of ads? One thing pollsters agree: turnout matters dramatically.
CNN’s Jenn Agiesta on turnout Huffington Post/Pollster Prediction markets The "America" ad FiveThirtyEight forecasts
Frank Newport: “Polling is my life!”
Frank Newport from Gallup is sort of like our Podfather. And he should be yours too.
The original Gallup podcast
C-e-Who?
More than half of people can’t name a CEO. “Deeply disturbing.”
Edelman Trust Barometer
Nielsen tracking 2nd screens
Do you post on Facebook while watching TV? Nielsen wants to know about it.
Recode story on Nielsen social media monitoring
12345-Monkey!
World’s worst passwords! These are pretty pathetic people.
Your password is the worst, 2015
Poor Selfie Sticks, Nobody Loves You
We like “The Selfie Vote,” but maybe not selfie sticks.
The best inventions The Selfie Vote
Key findings:
Drink up! Voting is about to begin. The easy money is on betting this will be a crazy year. Will polls predict who wins the early contests, or polls plus endorsements, ads & conventional wisdom? We’ll find out soon! It’s kind of like 10pm the night before Christmas. Even though Facebook & Neilsen are tabulating your fb posts about Cookie Lyons, trust in corporations is up. Looking for a new password? May we recommend, ThePollsters?
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Don’t forget your micro-assignment: Send us a polling 101 question for our explainer episode.
2016:
On the Democratic side, the contest continues to roil.
Straight Ace (Metrix). Huffington Post/IA Huffington Post/NH Huffington Post/national Democratic insiders in Politico. DMR/Selzer/Bloomberg poll
GOP side.
Not sure the debate changed anything, polling-wise. Although maybe there’s Kasich-mentum?
Huffington Post average: IA Huffington Post average: NH Huffington Post: national MassINC/WBUR Matt MacWilliams on authoritarianism NBC/WSJ on GOP contest Full NBC/WSJ poll
We talk to Carl Bialik
You say bialy, we say burrito. And we talk about fivethirtyeight, forecasting, and polling pollsters.
FiveThirtyEight poll of pollsters
UK update
Tories aren’t shy, they’re busy! New reports on “what went wrong” in the UK election polling.
BPC report The Guardian Huffington Post
Elephant in the valley
A majority of women receive unwanted advances. Like a mixtape.
Elephant in the Valley Poll your privilege (in Canada)
Ask a Millennial: Judge for yourself
Is Judge Judy on SCOTUS? We Ask a Millennial.
College grad study of civic engagement
Key Findings:
Just like wildly fluctuating snow predictions, we have wildly fluctuating IA & NH predictions. Get your snacks ready & hunker down for the long winter. If we’re teaching our children good manners, does that mean they’re future Trump supporters? A new parenting thing to keep us all up at night. And if my children don’t become tech zillionaires, perhaps they should move to Canada instead. And who needs RBG when you have Judge Judy? And who does better in demo?
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Thanks for the great shoutouts all over the Internet. Next micro-assignment: tweet us or post on our FB page your polling 101 questions for an evergreen explainer episode we’re working on. We're @thepollsters both on Facebook & Twitter.
Poll of the week: Gig this!
One fifth of Americans say they’re giggers in some way. Kristen & Margie have their own favorites.
Time Magazine Gig poll
2016: It’s getting hot in Iowa!
The Dem side in Iowa went from snoozeville to snowplow. What does that mean? You’ll have to listen.
Huffington Post/Pollster tracking ARG poll of Dems Quinnipiac IA poll NBC/WSJ/Marist poll Monmouth Poll/NH Washington Post on electability Washington Post on electability (2) Bloomberg tests the waters Gallup on independents
Gun politics. How did we get here?
We haven’t talked about guns on the show for a while, but there’s been no shortage of gun polling, or gun tragedies. Margie has a new piece at Huffington Post.
“A partisan culture, not a gun culture”
We talk to Scott Keeter: Pew Survey Director. Optimist.
Scott Keeter is a loyal listener! So we’re excited to talk to him about his new report on improving likely voter models.
Can likely voter models be improved?
And just as we were reaching peak TV.
We like TV. But do we want to say we like TV? Gallup has some tracking. Meanwhile, it’s never too early to talk about next year’s Golden Globes!
Gallup tracking on way to spend an evening Next year's Golden Globes
Key findings:
2016 is still going strong! Margie’s conquering her resolutions, we have an exciting race on both D/R sides, new friends & listeners, and Pew has given us a lot of new data and analysis to make us optimistic about the industry. But partisan divisions still there--and that, as opposed to gun ownership, seems to be what’s driving views toward gun laws. At time of peak tv, people don’t want to say they want to watch TV. But they do want more Amy Schumer & Jennifer Lawrence.
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Welcome back everyone! Hello Canadian fans! And everyone start looking for Kristen’s new column & web show at The Washington Examiner.
Poll of the week: An Extended Pollster Plan
Pew will call 75% cells for 2016! This is big news.
Pew announcement on cell phones
2016: Cruz draws Trump out of his shell. Democratic field unchanged.
How is the Republican primary like Margie’s Christmas vacation? Has Trump hit a ceiling in New Hampshire?
Field poll in CA NYT Upshot/Civis poll and analysis Huffington Post/pollsters trend charts
Anger Management
Esquire, Survey Monkey & NBC partnered for this latest study about the angry electorate. Interesting concept. Did they get to the bottom of it? We discuss.
Esquire Angry Electorate Gallup: Government #1 problem
A poll of pollsters
Five Thirty Eight did a poll of pollsters, which makes us wonder, what criteria should we use to define the polling industry?
Five Thirty Eight: Most pollsters say their reputation has worsened
You say you don’t want a resolution
Most people are not making resolutions this year. But Kristen & Margie aren’t like most people.
Marist poll on resolutions The life changing magic of tidying up
Key findings
Less than a month & probably a zillion polls to go before voting begins in Iowa. As the rest of the GOP field scrambles, Trump continues to dominate. Especially with the crucial non-voting, Democratic-registered Republican bloc. Whether it’s racial tensions, guns, government dysfunction, income inequality, voters are angry about a lot of different things, but expect all candidates to try to harness that anger this year. If you’re cell phone is ringing & you’re not sure who is calling, pick up! It might be Pew Research. If you’re reluctant to make a New Year’s resolution, how about one to share some love for the pollsters on Twitter or Facebook, with an iTunes review, at earbud.fm, or in the coments at gofugyourself.
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Thanks for all the great feedback, gang! Let's all take next week off, but if you’re desperate for more Pollsters, listen to our interview with Chuck Todd (#39).
Poll of the week! May the polls be with you:
Just like there is constant Trump polling, there is constant Star Wars polling. That’s as close as Margie’s getting to a movie theater.
Star Wars poll on Rotten Tomatoes
2016: With candidates like these, who needs family?
Trump gets Trumpier and Trumpier, and the polls find both agreement and embarrassment.
People agree with Trump--even on things that don’t exist/PPP CBS/YouGov IA/NH: Republicans “glad someone is saying” things Trump says Quinnipiac poll shows even ⅕ of GOP woudl be embarrassed if Trump was president Trump finally gets something right! And it’s about polling!
Kyle Dropp from Morning Consult
What can we learn about Trump’s support across methodologies? We talk to Kyle Dropp from Morning Consult.
Morning Consult's new report
Insecurity
Insecurity about our security is on the rise. Although views toward police improve.
For first time since 9/11, views on terrorism net negative, Pew Americans more worried by terrorism than shootings, Gallup Faith in police rebounds, Gallup
Celebrate the holidays like the Millennials
Those Millennials--they know how to pare down a holiday to its bare essence.
Monmouth on the holidays Millennial & other generations on Christmas, Pew
Key Findings:
This holiday, no need to be embarrassed by your family when there are still so many candidates to be embarrassed by? it seems like voters are increasingly worried about security & terrorism, but will it drive voters in the primary or the general? Spoil Star Wars for Margie! But it’ll cost you. Be like a Millennial & have a great holiday with your family & friends.
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We take a deep dive into the world of political handicapping with veteran writer and observer Charlie Cook. We talk about the role of polling in evaluating campaigns, how polling is not like art, and about the future of political journalism.
Cook Political Report National Journal
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Thanks for all your hard work with your Micro-assignments! As a result we have been featured next to mega-hit Serial on the pocketcasts app. Hello, Serial-listeners! To celebrate almost being a legit media property Margie has a surprise, but you’ll have to listen to the show.
Poll of the week: Star Wars
How does one prepare for a major nerd event? With polling, obviously.
FiveThirtyEight & Survey Monkey poll on Star Wars
2016
It’s now no longer too early to get excited about the Presidential race. Even Millennials are excited.
AP poll on likability Pew poll on excitement of race Monmouth poll national IA Selzer/DMR poll WBUR NH poll
Muslim ban
No matter who emerges on top from Tuesday’s GOP debate, we know one thing for sure: Trump’s “Muslim Ban” will take center stage.
Roundup of polling on Muslim immigration Frank Luntz FG
Ask a millennial!
Part of our ongoing series: Ask a Millennial. We happen to have one: Kristen.
The Selfie Vote The Founders? Harvard IOP Pew on Americans being lazy, selfish, or...
Happy Holidays! Here’s a picture of a bear
CareerBuilder finds many of you are getting some weird gifts for your co-workers. Margie has a not-weird gift for Kristen. We have a gift for you in the form of Charlie Cook.
CareerBuilder survey of office gifts
Key findings
Still not sure likeabilty matters in your 2016 vote, although we’re glad you like The Pollsters Your relatives will most likely be talking about Trump, Cruz & the muslim ban over the holidays. We asked a Millennial about whether Americans are lazy. And she said no, case closed. This holiday, don’t buy your coworker a sheep, or a roll of duct tape.
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Micro-assignment time! Like us on Facebook & share a link to the show on your own feeds. Super-easy! These micro-assignments have really helped us grow the show.
Kristen reports from Alaska
Is Alaska a hard place to do research? Well, maybe a little easier than when Margie went there 20 years ago.
NYT on whether Alaska is hard to poll FiveThirtyEight on Alaska polling
Trump & Muslims
So Trump’s polling savvy once again is making news, this time as he cites polls for his own extremist policy. But what do the data actually say? Also, Margie enters the Blue Zone.
CNN on Trump polling citation Washington Post on Trump polling citation Pew study of Muslims worldwide Sun poll of UK Muslims Quinnipiac national survey on guns
Meanwhile, Cruz Cruises
Some hypothesize Trump’s statement comes on the heels of a Monmouth poll in IA showing Cruz on top.
Monmouth IA poll Politico on Bush & polls CNN IA poll National CNN poll USNews on CNN poll
Campaign finance reform
We talked about this with Sanders pollster Ben Tulchin last week: there is a diff between opposing money in campaigns & being a single-issue campaign finance reform voter. but new Pew data shows this is a particularly bipartisan issue:
Pew & campaign finance reform
UK polling: what went wrong?
We’d love to have Antony Wells back on, or talk to others who polled in the UK. But YouGov has come out with its report, and we suggest you take a look at what they found accounted for their error in predicting a strong Conservative win.
YouGov report
Key findings:
There are some things polls shouldn’t help us do, and that’s develop likely unconstitutional policies. But, if we’re going to look at polling among muslims, the results are not even close to being as clear-cut as Trump believes. Meanwhile--there are some things Margie says are in fact popular--preventing terrorists from getting guns & limiting campaign spending. All this means the GOP race is particularly roiling & volatile this week. That we can also tell from the polling.
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Hi all! Great work with all your micro-assignments! Here they are again--they’re all super short:
Write a quick review on iTunes or Stitcher. Tweet or share on Facebook the links to the show. You can also link to Soundcloud or Pocketcasts. Submit a recommendation for the show to NPR’s Earbud.FM.
Big number of the week: 41% of Americans trying to lose weight, a new low.
Gallup says, good job America!
Creepy poll of the week, from Echelon Insights
No, I haven’t thought about these candidates, what are you talking about? Aside from Trump, that is.
The GOP field
Trump still leads, or does he? It may depend on who you talk to and how they’ve been called.
FiveThirtyEight on Trump online vs. live calls Reuters Huffington Post Quinnpiac
Ben Tulchin feeling the Bern
We talk to Sanders campaign pollster Ben Tulchin of Tulchin Research. He walks us through the public polling on the Democratic side, and why the media has got it wrong.
Tulchin memo Time Magazine
This Week in Ask a Millennial
We ask our resident Millennial (Kristen) about Millennials and smartphones. And tablets. And laptops.
Pew on device ownership The Selfie Vote
Big game hunting poll
Marist poll finds clear majorities oppose big game hunting. Maybe a new bipartisan issue?
Marist on Big Game hunting
Key Findings:
Whether you’re feeling the post-Thanksgiving exercise & diet burn, or the Sanders bern, there are numbers to help you find your tribe. Seems like dieting is down. Sanders, maybe up? Although we’re feeling the bern by both Trump & Justin Bieber. Sigh. Our twitter skills need more work i guess. Millennials are maybe not as connected as we had all thought? But that shouldn’t stop you guys from writing reviews, tweeting out a recommendation for the show, or submitting our show to earbud.fm. And, maybe we found another issue that might have cross-demo appeal: banning big game hunting. Candidates take note.
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Hi all! Great work with all your micro-assignments! The theme this week is Twitter, so micro-assignment #3 is to tweet out a recommendation to the show with a link. The link is important! You can use this iTunes link, Soundcloud, Stitcher, Pocketcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also RT links from our Twitter feed.
Security
Whether it’s ISIS, the refugee crisis, or racial tensions here at home, the polling shows Americans are worried.
WP/ABC poll Bloomberg/Selzer Fox News poll The Sun (UK) poll of Muslims The Sun poll methodology CNN/KFF poll on race
Let’s talk Twitter with Adam Sharp
Twitter polls, Twitter sentiment, and our own true Twitter confessions. We talk to Adam Sharp, head of Campaigns, Elections, News & Government at Twitter.
@AdamS @gov
2016 Update
Carson’s had a tough week, which seems to help Cruz. What can stop Trump? Seemingly nothing. And what’s going on on the Democratic side?
Huffington Post/pollster CBS/YouGov
Pass the Government Roles please
People may want smaller government, but even Republicans see a government role for education and the environment.
Pew poll
Millennials like censorship and Snapchat
Millennials are more likely to support censoring than any other group. And can they be reached on Snapchat? We talk to our resident Millennial expert: Kristen.
Pew study on Millennials Washington Post on Snapchat poll Politico on Snapchat poll The Selfie Vote
Let’s talk about Adele, and, uh, Justin Bieber
Are you alone in your love for Adele? (No.) What about Kristen’s love of Justin Bieber? (Yes.)
PPP on musicians
We give thanks to polling
Do the guys at 538 even listen to this show? Let’s find out! And we weigh in on green bean casserole and shopping.
538 on side dishes Arthur Brooks/NYT on giving thanks PPP on Thanksgiving
Key Findings
Whether it’s about refugee crisis, race, role of government, or turkey, please take this week to say something nice about someone of the other party--even (especially!?) if that person is in your family. And, while you’re at it, say something nice about us. On Twitter.
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Thanks for all your hard work on your micro-assignments! We shuffle our papers in salute. Here’s micro-assignment #2: Go to NPR’s Earbud.FM & suggest they add us to their list of recommended shows. It’ll only take 60 seconds! The link is here. And if you take a screen shot and send it to us, we’ll give you a shoutout!.
Post-Paris Polling
Reuters and others have some early polling suggesting an immediate bump in the salience of terrorism. There is also some fascinating historical polling from the 1930s about accepting refugees. Will this debate fall into traditional fault lines around race and inclusiveness? We hope not, for everyone’s sake.
Reuters/Ipsos on important issue Reuters/Ipsos on which party has best plan Reuters story about recent polling @Histopinion goes viral Washington Post story on PRRI poll
Dem debate
There was a Democratic debate last Saturday, and three different post-debate polls tell three different stories. The truth probably somewhere in the middle.
PPP post-debate poll CBS News/GfK poll WSJ/GCS poll Quinnipiac Colorado Poll Gallup most important issue
NBC’s Chuck Todd
Chuck Todd doesn’t mince word when talking about the industry. He sounds off on bad polls, self-policing, and the struggle with new polling experimentation.
Chuck Todd
GOP primary
Seems pretty volatile on the Republican side. What’s next for Carson, Trump, Rubio & the gang?
The Hill polling overview Huffington Post/pollster tracker
Pew News
The fine folks at Pew released two interesting reports this week about methodology--one on Latinos and one on improving phone samples. We’ll know you want to check them both out.
Pew Latino methodology report Pew advances in telephone sampling
Ladies--study up!
Some depressing news about a gender gap in computer science & in financial literacy.Gallup shows girls are less interested in computers. Not only that, parents & teachers say girls are less interested & they’ll be less successful. And the gender gap in financial literacy is larger in the US than the worldwide average. This all makes us sad.
Gallup on girls and computers Gallup on worldwide financial literacy
AirBnB and Cuba
If everyone you know likes to use AirBnB or wants to go to Cuba, then you’re probably younger and wealthier, according to recent polls.
AirBnB More Millennials want to go to Cuba
Key Findings
The polling on terrorism, Syrian refugees is moving quickly, even if it along familiar fault lines. No debates for a while! Doesn’t mean there’s any shortage of polls showing both volatility & some consensus-building. Meet the Chuck! Chuck Todd gives the industry some tough talk on transparency and methodology. Follow Pew for their in-depth methodological reports, to make sure you’re buying the right sample & hiring the right interviewers. Macro-assignment: teach a girl to code. and how to invest. Air BnB: thrifty travel for the upper-income set. How Margie is like a millennial: the Cuba edition.
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You guys are podcast-hipsters! Like the people who did swing dancing before Swingers. Or the people who have been doing paddleboard yoga for years. So we need your help to get more people to listen to our show. We’d love to double, or even triple, the number of listeners by the time 2016 voting begins. Can you help by doing these free 60-second micro-assignments? The first one: write a review on Stitcher. You don’t need to be a Stitcher user. But it will make it so people can stumble upon our show. Here’s the link.
2016: Let’s get serious.
The Republicans had a real debate this time! But how will the polls react? What about insta-polls and insta-groups? We’re going to talk about hte Dem primary next week, but check out some cool charts the Washington Post made using general election crosstabs.
Post-debate poll in Time Luntz FG/NH Monmouth/SC IA CNN poll Cool charts from the Washington Post/Marist/McLatchy Marist
Polling: What is it good for? Absolutely Nothing?
Lots of people worrying about the future of polling. One thing is for sure, there is way more polling coverage. Is this good for democracy? We say yes, others are less sure.
Jill lepore’s New Yorker story NYT worries about polling quality.
Recent veteran polling.
We record on Veterans Day and check out some polling about recent vets’ experiences getting help. It’s actually more positive than you might think.
WP/Kaiser past polling among veterans
Millennials and government jobs.
Are Millennials less interested in government jobs than other generations? And what would attract them, other than pets at work, free dry cleaning, and free breakfasts? We ask our resident Millennial: Kristen.
Millennials and government jobs/Deloitte study The Selfie Vote
A segment from our live show @ Georgetown: What are women’s issues anyway?
The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service kicked off their women in politics speaker series with us! We recorded the whole show, and have included a clip here. We had great questions!
Georgetown University IPPS
Now hair this.
Should Kristen get her haircut? Obviously, we consult the experts--the public. Take that polling haters!
Gallup '71 on men's hair Daily Mail on women's hair Harper's Bazaar on celebrity hair More celebrity hair! Man buns (!?)
Key findings:
Voters say they wanted a serious debate, & it looks like they got one. But not sure we’ll see big movements in the top-tier, no matter what Carson bombshell drops. As the pollsters, we of course think polls are useful. But it’s up to us as the industry to make sure we’re helping people vet good polling from bad. We loved going to Georgetown! And we want to see women’s issues be more inclusive: not just abortion/birth control, not just for women, and not just for Democrats.. Long hair is a pain. Polls show many like it in theory, but actually support shorter hair in practice. You’ll have to follow Kristen on IG in order to see how this turns out. Your 60 sec assignment! Write a review for The Pollsters on twitter. You podcast-hipsters you.
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Lots of exciting stuff coming up for The Pollsters! Our first live show at Georgetown Institute of Politics & Public Service. And we have lots of great interviews teed up for the next few weeks. Make sure you subscribe so you don’t miss the action!
The Shark Tank Debate
None of the CNBC debate moderators were dubbed “Mr/Ms. Wonderful” after last week’s debate. Rubio, Cruz and maybe Christie surged, Carson and remains strong. But what about Jeb?
Huffington Post/YouGov on post-debate reax NBC/WSJ poll WBUR NH pol
The Post-Hearing Clinton Surge
After the Dem debate and Benghazi hearing coverage have settled in, Clinton seems to be on the upswing, even in New Hampshire.
NBC/WSJ National poll Monmouth/NH Dem poll 60 Minutes/Vanity fair
But Carson’s Strong in the General
No matter what the press throws at him, Carson remains the strongest candidate in the general.
NBC/WSJ National poll Quinnipiac National poll
Mass Media Appeal
Trust in the media continues to decline, across age groups and party. No wonder candidates see a bounce when they pick a fight with it. And “poll” is a controversial word! Who knew!?
Gallup on media Emotion and media bias Controversy and Sentiment in Online News.
The Red-Grass State?
Kentucky had a big election Tuesday night, and Republican Matt Bevin won despite most polls pointing to Conway. What happened?
Survey USA KY poll Fabrizio Lee KY poll Vox Populi KY poll Harry Enten @538 weighs in
Walmart Moms: We Interview Neil Newhouse
We talk to GOP Pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies about his & Margie’s ongoing collaboration studying Walmart Moms. And he gives us his straight talk about what happened in Kentucky.
Bloomberg on Walmart Moms MSNBC on Walmart Moms ABC on Walmart Moms
Christmas! Coming sooner. Perhaps less religious.
Pew finds a drop in religiosity. And others find an increase in Christmas spending & Christmas Creep. Related? Probably not.
Pew on religiosity Christmas Creep CNBC NRF Christmas Creep Gallup poll on planned Christmas spending
Key Findings:
Clinton, Carson, and Rubio surge. While Bush and the moderators were the losers of last week’s CNBC debate But in the general, Carson still remains strong, and Clinton & Sanders almost evenly matched. Walmart moms across party lines feel few candidates are paying attention to their own shared struggles. What’s teh matter with polling in Kentucky? Everyone seems to remember pollings misses more than its hits. Christmas polling comes earlier every year, even while religiosity declines
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Don’t forget to write us a review on iTunes or Stitcher (or both!). We also have some fun interviews and events in the works. Make sure to keep up with us on Twitter and Facebook (and Kristen and Margie’s Twitter accounts) so you have all the latest.
Congrats to the all-lady team at Huffington Post/pollster
Go team!
2016, GOP Side:
Carson now beats Trump nationally. But which candidate has the steepest slope? And how does Iowa compare to New Hampshire and South Carolina? Most importantly, what does America’s pollster think? Get your pre-debate handicapping here.
CBS/YouGov 3-state poll (GOP) Monmouth Iowa poll (GOP) CBS/NYT national poll Huffington Post/pollster (National) Gallup on GOP favorables Trump on the polls (pt1) Trump on the polls (pt2) Trump on his pollster
2016, Dem Side:
Clinton has had a strong few weeks. Although the national numbers look different than individual state numbers. And sample methodology makes a huge impact in the results.
CBS/YouGov 3-state polls Monmouth Iowa (Dems) Huffington Post/Pollster (National) Huffington Post/Pollster (Iowa) Huffington Post/Pollster (New Hampshire) NBC/WSJ (national)
Campaign finance may have its moment?
In two early primary states a (slim) plurality of Dems say they want to see the next President reform campaign finance. Even GOP worried their party too close to donors.
CBS/YouGov 3-state poll
Now Hear This
Several polls weigh in on how people view the Benghazi hearings--before the 11-hour marathon. Not surprisingly, high “don’t knows” for this one.
CNN/ORC on Benghazi NBC/WSJ on Benghazi
Speak To Me
What do Republicans want out of an incoming Speaker? Compromise--or standing up for principles? Well, not surprisingly, question wording makes a big difference here.
NBC/WSJ on Speaker NH/Bloomberg/NHIOP poll Gallup on Speaker Gallup on Tea Party
Candy!
What’s scarier: candy corn? Or Reeses’ cups for the allergy-prone? We tackle the tough Halloween issues.
Huffington Post/YouGov on Candy
Key Findings:
America’s pollster is worried he’s slipping to #2. Can he pull out a win in the debate?And how often will he say “poll” onstage. Clinton is staying above the fray, and higher in the polls as a result. Campaign finance may have its moment. And Paul Ryan may have his. Meanwhile--there’s yet another divisive issue sweeping the country: candy corn.
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Hello new listeners & subscribers! We love feedback, so don’t forget to write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. And our Soundcloud page now has a great archive.
More Dem post-game
When is a bump a bump? Clinton won the debate, but not every poll shows her gaining in the vote.
Globe/WMUR poll in NH Herald/Franklin Pierce NH NBC/Survey Monkey Huff Post/YouGov CNN/ORC WP/ABC poll NBC/WSJ poll Bloomberg Politics/St Anselm/Purple NH poll
GOP debate pre-game
On the Republican side, many thought Trump’s bubble was bursting. Looks like the joke’s on us all.
NBC/WSJ poll CNN/ORC Bloomberg Politics poll
These guys know about the bump
Pope Francis & John Boenher have a lot in common. In fact, both their favorables improved after their meeting a few weeks ago.
Gallup on Pope Francis visit John Boehner rebounds
Victory (for the pollsters!) in Canada
Good news for the industry: Canadian pollsters called the popular vote just about exactly right. We talk to Elizabeth Sena from GQRR about her work in the ridings.
Canadian polling
The latest on guns
After every tragic shooting, outlets re-test a battery of questions on guns. The results from Gallup’s recent questioning are mixed.
Gallup on 3-way gun question Gallup on concealed weapons Gallup on single-issue voters on guns
Millennial parents
Oh, millennials. You know them, posting photos of their kids on Facebook, buying gender-neutral toys, using social media more than everyone else. If you’re still confused, buy Kristen’s book.
Time magazine/Survey monkey poll Pew on social media usage The Selfie Vote
Key Findings
The Democratic debate: Where a win can be both a win and a draw. Republicans say: don’t bump that Trump bubble quite yet! We can really learn about a post-event bump from BFF Pope Francis & Speaker Boehner. In Canada, it seems pollsters can take a bow. While the Democratic electorate has a debate over guns, there may be more single-issue voters on the GOP side. Finally! Some poll results that make Margie feel young.
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The Democrats debated! The press seems unified in who they think won. But voters perhaps say something else? And what are the trends in online polling, and all things Canada?
Dem debate post-game
Every outlet gives the ribbon to Clinton. But Sanders wins online and in post-debate groups.
Fox News/Luntz focus group CNN focus group Sanders gained more twitter followers Sanders gains more google searches Sanders wins Google Consumer Surveys CNN/ORC Nevada & SC polls
Trade/TPP
Last week Chuck Todd grilled us on TPP and Democrats, but voters don’t seem particularly interested.
Trade not a big search during debate Gallup polling on TPP Pew polling on TPP
Welcome to Snoozeville
Not too much action on the GOP side this week. We do revisit the GOP Bloomberg/Purple Groups, and see which GOP candidates are earning the most trust.
Bloomberg/Purple groups: Carson Bloomberg/Purple groups: Bush CBS national poll/GOP
15 for Pres, NOBODY for Speaker
Lots of people want the top spot, and pretty much no one wants the #3 spot. And can you blame them, with poll numbers like these?
CBS national poll/GOP
An interview with Nick Nanos about the Canadian election
So while you might think of US politics & polling as a little rough & tumble, Margie interviewed top Canadian pollster Nick Nanos from Nanos Research--and what he says about Canadian polling & politics might surprise you.
Nanos Research
LA Times moving online
Another sign that media outlets may be moving online: The LA Times is experimenting with the methodology.
LA Times experiment
We poll therefore we are
A study appearing in the New York Times suggests an easy fix for the gender divide in tech. Coffee makers and cool t-shirts!
NYT on gender and tech
Mama! Mum! Stop Cursing!
Ford asks European kids what annoys them about their parents. Besides everything.
European kids’ top travel gripes
Key Findings
The Democratic debate winner depends on who you ask. But few are asking about the candidates’ views on TPP. The most exciting Republican race this week is the one with no candidates. Canada is the “wild wild west” of polling, but if they offer $15/day child care, Margie’s moving. LA Times jumps into the warm pool of online polling. If you want ladies in your lab, try some nature posters and plants. Whether you curse or pick your nose or sing, your kids probably find you annoying.
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The pollsters are everywhere! We crossed paths at the Institute for Politics at St. Anselm’s in New Hampshire. And we’ve been on the new Meet the Press Daily. Margie will be doing some Dem debate coverage at Huffington Post next week. And Kristen will be on the soon-to-be-different Up with Steve Kornacki. Also don’t forget to write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.
2016/Dems: Will Joe Show?
Recent polling shows Biden strong in the general--but can he make it out of the primary? New focus groups suggest it’s not necessarily smooth sailing.
Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies focus groups NBC/WSJ/Marist
2016/Carson: The Carson experience?
While Trump may be tumbling, Carson continues to stay strong. He’s even the preferred candidate for primary voters who prioritize experience. What? And what does this all mean for the debate?
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Politico: The GOP debate implications
2016/General
We try to explain the Carson phenomenon. A poll where “ballsy” is an answer. And Gallup makes a big, big decision.
Gallup: government on traditional values Suffolk/USA Today national poll Pew Research on campaign climate Politico: Gallup gives up the horserace
Death with Dignity
California passes a new bill on death with dignity. Polls show this on the move, even when it’s asked in an outdated way.
Pew Research on aid in dying
Gender
Sheryl Sandberg’s group Lean In and consulting firm McKinsey team up for an extensive--but perhaps dispiriting--look at gender in the workforce.
Lean In/McKinsey
Most annoying travelers:
Are you an annoying traveler? Check the data (or maybe just say “yes”).
Expedia study of travel etiquette
Key findings:
BIden mania! But can he get through the primary? Sanders mania! But can he get through the general? And Carson mania! Right now strong in both the primary and the general. One thing we know, even without a Gallup horserace, there are still plenty of horserace polls. Stay tuned for more Canada news next week. And be a good hotel guest please! Keep your flirting online--like the kids--rather than annoying all your fellow travelers.
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It’s International Podcast Day! Have you sent out all your cards & gifts? Don’t forget to write us a review on Stitcher or iTunes, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.
2016
Trump has a classy pollster. Meanwhile, slow and Rubio wins the race? Are you ready for some Biden? We take a question from activist Deray McKesson. And Kristen has a new poll showing Republicans agree climate change is happening.
NBC/WSJ Echelon Insights poll on climate change Huffington Post/pollster average NYT: Focus group of one
Boehner: Out. Anger: In.
Boehner has resigned, but it judging by these numbers, it’ll take a lot more to turn around these sad Gallup numbers on how people view our government.
Gallup - Majority want a third party Gallup - Trust in media at record low Gallup - To know Congress is to hate Congress Gallup - People don’t even trust their own Member of Congress anymore Bloomberg Politics/Selzer
So let’s shut the whole thing down?
Well, not quite. Most people oppose shutting down the government to stop funding for Planned Parenthood. Even Republicans.
Quinnipiac CBS/NYT Pew
More Canada!
Listeners, you’ve spoken, and you want more data on Canada. We’re here to deliver. Apparently releasing a poll publicly is “guerrilla warfare.” It’ll take more than that to raise an eyebrow in these parts.
Canada poll-tracker Huffington Post Globe & Mail story on “questionable results”
The most current polling on OJ Simpson.
We know you’ve been wondering: what is the polling on OJ Simpson these days? Well, the Post has been wondering too.
WP/ABC on OJ
Hey, what’s up listeners?
We love it when dating apps release their data. They should be called dating data apps. And among which group can talking about Taylor Swift get you a date?
Vox
Key Findings:
Our best pollsters pickup line may be, “Who would you prefer to go to Canada with: Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, or Ben Carson?” Our worst pickup line: “Hey, what’s up Donald Trump?” And that may be how he begins his focus groups of one. If you’re feeling despondent about the government, like most of Americans—celebrate International Podcast Day instead. But we (and most Americans) hope you don’t have too much free time on your hands with a government shutdown.
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Fiorina is on fire while Walker collapses. But the biggest political news this week is not the Presidential race.
Fiorina on fire
Fiorina turned in a great performance. That may be necessary, but is it sufficient? And kids want to know: does she live in a castle? And are Biden supporters celebrating this week?
Morning Consult poll/debate watchers CNN poll/Dems Bloomberg/Selzer poll/Dems
The Pope’s Poll-Mobile
Tons of polling out on the Pope. No doubt he’s popular. But both Catholics and non-Catholics like his open, authentic tone.
Echelon Insights/Hart Research/Shriver Report YouGov Pew Marist PRRI CBS News Washington Post Gallup
More polling, eh?
Are you guys & gals following this election? Tweet us & let us know!
Like how we have “538” here...they have “ThreeHundredEight”! Echelon Insights monitors Canadian Twitter action
Pew says online methodology catching up
Online polling is catching up with telephone, says Pew. At least the way they do it.
Pew methodological report
Fall is the best, because polling.
We’re partial to solstices. But also Fall. Boot weather!
YouGov on Fall
Read this
If you must email, keep subject lines short. And if you’ve made it this far, you’re probably not a Millennial.
Email subject length
Key Findings
Trump and Clinton still lead. But good weeks for BIden, Fiorina, and Rubio. Pope-mania is sweeping the country. Politicians could learn a lot from him. A tied race in Canada. Sounds excting! Online surveys: yes. Emails: no. Boot weather is here!
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Get ready for an All-American pageant known as a presidential debate. Who has been Pumpkin Spice with everything nice? We discuss.
Debate pregame
Get ready to tailgate, or homegate, for the latest Republican debate. Where’s Walker? And is there trouble in Trumplandia? Meanwhile, Clinton is feeling the Bern, but is it really about those emails?
Monmouth/NH GOP poll Monmouth/NH Dem poll: NYT/CBS Marist/MSNBC/Telemundo poll Gallup trump & religious GOPs CBS news poll on Biden CBS News Poll on GOP & Dem contests YouGov on coup
No gotcha questions for pageant contestants
If finally a candidate could answer a question succinctly and correctly. Where is such a place? Ah, the Miss America pageant!
Washington Post on pageant answers, ranked Washinton Post/ABC poll on Kim DavisGallup on pageants
The NFL is back, and NFL polling is back.
What is this football thing about which Kristen speaks? Thankfully, Margie can refer to some polling to help her figure it out.
ESPN survey of players Tailgating survey
It’s always bipartisan in California. Maybe.
Some recent polling on the droughts in California suggests there may be some bipartisanship on views toward the cause of the draught, but maybe not on the solution. Meanwhile, what does this mean for Jerry Brown?
GQR, USC & American Viewpoint survey
Pumpkin spice and everything nice.
Pumpkin spice everything is headed your way. Do you have your emergency preparedness kit?
Forbes data on the Pumpkin Spice Invasion
White after Labor Day = yes. Dressy yoga pants = no.
Even fashion is getting in on the polling act. No longer need to poll your friends or officemates. Except if you want to wear office-ready yoga pants. Because that's just wrong.
Poll on white after Labor Day Marist polling for Fashion Week
Key findings:
Lots of candidates feeling some sort of bern--whether it’s from Sanders or a barb from Trump. Can we be bipartisan against droughts? What about coups? Maybe? Fashion and football are great areas for polling, but if you’re confused by the polls, just ask a beauty queen.
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Hi new listeners! Last week was our best rated show ever--by a lot! So thanks again to Ann Selzer for a great interview. And welcome! If you haven’t already folks, please write a review on iTunes or on Stitcher--it makes a huge difference as to whether people find us. Or tweet out that you like the show.
2016:
We wanted to give a little bit of a break to 2016, with the CNN GOP debate next week, and post-debate polling to cover. But there was so much, we couldn’t help it. Trump and Carson continue to dominate. But Kasich surges in New Hampshire, while Bush and Walker continue to falter. On the Democratic side, Sanders leads for the first time in Iowa. But we’re still not convinced voters are rejecting Clinton. And Biden is strong too.
CNN/ORC polling Quinnipiac polling NBC/Marist toplines for NH & IA. New Monmouth National poll/Dems Gallup polling on Clinton favorability
Labor Day
Views toward labor unions seem to surge, but that doesn’t mean voters are optimistic about labor’s future. And the most effective economic policy may be reducing gender pay discrepancies. That would suit women just fine.
Gallup on union ratings Gallup on POTUS ratings among union members Gallup on gender pay equity Gallup on popular economic policies
Someone else not working on Labor Day
Is Kim Davis a good general election strategy? Is it even a good primary strategy?
Huffington Post/YouGov on Kim Davis
Millennials: “Who are you calling a Millennial”?
Kristen wrote the book on Millennials. Literally! What does she think about Millennials not wanting to be called Millennials?
Pew study on generation labels YouGov: ⅓ of young Americans not completely straight Pew on use of messaging apps (& instant delete messaging apps) Pew Catholics open to nontraditional families
Gallup’s got your back. Get it?
These numbers are better than Margie’s jokes.
Gallup on Chiropractors
This new regulation probably changes everything about research
Should you start panicking about the new FCC regulations on the way pollsters reach respondents? Listen to this interview with Howard Fienberg from the Market Research Association and then decide.
The MRA
Key findings
Oh, we tried to give everyone a little break from 2016. Or a little break from Trump. Maybe next week, or maybe a few weeks from now… Any pollsters or handicappers who said Sanders had hit his ceiling, or said Trump had hit his ceiling...well, you’re welcome on our show anytime for a mea culpa. (This means you 538 & Upshot. And everyone!) Pro-tip: Millennials don't want to be called Millennials. Meanwhile, polls suggest voters may want to talk about income inequality, and gender in the workplace, but not Kim Davis?
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Welcome new listeners! Don’t forget to write us a review on Stitcher or iTunes so others can more easily find the show.
2016: Iowans are trying to make Sanders and Carson happen.
So this big news this weekend is a Des Moines Register poll showing Clinton
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This week Kristen has some family time and we have a special guest co-host of Kellyanne Conway of the polling company/WomanTrend. Kristen will be back next week.
2016: We revisit four questions about Trump-mania. And get ready for Biden-mania?
Is it real? Will it last? What’s behind it? How does it affect the Republican brand?
Both Biden and Sanders are doing better in the polls. But does that really mean Clinton is vulnerable?
NYT/Upshot/Civis studies Trump Monmouth South Carolina poll Luntz focus group of Trump voters) Pew shows 1/4 unfavorable to both parties 538 on Sanders PPP/New Hampshire poll Gallup on Hispanics' view of GOP field Suffolk/IA poll Quinnipiac national poll
Guns
Before the tragic shooting of two reporters Pew released some tracking of views on guns. Widespread agreement about specific gun proposals, yet the dialogue remains partisan.
Pew on guns Gallup on parents and school safety
Back to school
It’s back to school, and back to polling. Kellyanne and Margie agree on something, prompting Beckett to fall asleep.
Gallup/PDK survey on public schools
Key Findings
Maybe the Dem primary is getting more interesting than the GOP primary? Could that be?
The polling on stronger gun laws doesn’t change much, and sadly the number of gun crimes doesn’t seem to change much either.
On education, there is more agreement than disagreement across demographic and party lines--even on our own show!
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Welcome new subscribers! You came just in time for silly season!
2016 (Dem edition):
Some good news for Biden? And are Clinton email stories driving--or simply reflecting--the current climate?
CNN on the Dem candidates
Fox News poll on Clinton emails
Monmouth on Clinton emails
Gallup on Biden
Quinnipiac 3-state general election poll
2016 (GOP edition):
Trump is still the headline, but a clearer picture emerges as to his ability to damage the party. And as Fiorina rises, Walker sinks. Should other candidates adopt Trump-ism on immigration? What about Republican issue stalwarts like labor unions or Planned Parenthood?
KSA in The Daily Beast
CNN on GOP primary
Gallup on immigration
NBC/WSJ on immigrationGallup on unions
Reuters on Planned Parenthood funding
Welcome to CrazyTown!
So i guess it’s summer silly season. Because in addition to all these polls we have feuds & fake candidates.
"Deez Nuts" grabbing voters in PPP poll
Trump: Pollsters make $200K a month
Luntz vs Stone vs. Trump in Politico
You need a friend--to help you wax?
How many of these things would you do for a friend, even if it’s national friendship week? How many would Kristen and Margie do for each other?
Skout survey on friendship
Key findings:
Maybe in a few months we’ll be talking about Biden vs. Fiorina?
Given Trump’s vulnerabilities, Republican candidates may not want to follow him off the issue cliff.
For 200K/month, we’ll help you figure it all out! And we’ll even split it! (bargain!)
Friendship may mean help with waxing or cats, but in DC it means twitter fights, splitting big retainers, & writing amazon or iTunes reviews.
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Last week we had our biggest download day ever! So now some debate post-game to follow up that pre-game.
Feeling the Bern in New Hampshire
The latest polling shows Sanders up in New Hampshire, but the interesting data is beneath the surface.
Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald NH Dem Poll
CNN/ORC poll IA Dem poll
Trump: 1st is the Worst
More people said trump did worst job in debate than said best job. Yet why is he still leading? Two recent online polls shed some light, including one from Kristen’s firm Echelon Insights. We also talk about the growing acceptance of online poll methodology, including Google Consumer Surveys.
MSNBC/Survey Monkey poll
CNN/ORC IA GOP poll
Echelon Insights poll
Washington Post/Monkey Cage
Pessimism on race
Both Gallup and Pew show more now worried about race relations. Although there are a few silver linings on hopes for the future.
Gallup on race: Release #1Release #2
Pew poll on race
Work/Life balancing acts
There’s no shortage of studies on work-life balance. Washington Post and the New York times make the economic case, and others show some interesting demographic breakouts.
Washington Post Poll on work after kids
NYT article on millennial dads
NYT Upshot 8/10 article - Can Family Leave Policies Be Too Generous?
Key Findings
NH is feeling the Bern! But the interesting stuff is beneath the surface.
Trump is still strong in the polls. Despite having the worst debate performance. Go figure.
Across the board people are worried about racial tensions.
And we still see major gender divides and struggles over work-life balance.
Perhaps whatever the topic, online studies are improving.
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Hard to forget a crying baby--whether you’re in a Maine diner, on a podcast, or if he’s standing next to you on the debate stage.
When polling is the story: The GOP debate
This week the GOP debate makes big news, especially the polling leading up to the debate.
WSJ: WSJ/NBC poll
Fox News article
Fox News Poll
Bloomberg: Trump Dominates in pre-debate poll
CBS Poll
And the Dems?
While not as big news as the GOP pre-debate polling, new polls confirm the primary narrows somewhat.
WSJ: Clinton loses ground with white women
WMUR: Granite State Poll
Top pollster takes Boy Scout oath
We talk to Lee Miringoff from Marist about their decision to not be part of the pre-debate polling.
Politico: Marist suspends polling
McClatchy: Marist suspends polling to avoid being part of debate
Miringoff: 10 reasons polls should not determine debate eligibility
Key Findings:
Polling is as much the story this week as the debate. But when pollsters find that troubling, then I think that’s a problem.
Even with all the polling, some story lines--like Trump’s bump, or Sanders vs. Clinton--end up being rorschach tests anyway.
If the polls are driving campaign news this far out, we have a long campaign ahead of us. Make sure you have subscribed!
Lastly, Maura Duggan has been the best intern ever! Thanks Maura!
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Kristen is on the road and Margie’s still in the closet but we head right into the eye of the Trummania storm.
Four questions about Trump polling:
is this bump real? (Do the polls reflect real trends?)
What’s driving it?
Will it last? Is this just a “fling”?
What will this do to the GOP brand?
Politico: What Trump Bump?
NBC/Marist Polls: Iowa
NBC/Marist Poll: New Hampshire
Bloomberg/Purple: Trump focus group
Monmouth Poll: Immigration
Nate Silver: Trump Nickelback
CNN/ORC poll
Gallup: GOP Familiarity/Favorability
Huffington Post: Grassroots Activist Republicans
Pew: GOP favorability
Cuba moves
As the candidates make moves on Cuba, Pew has new data on opinions on the changing relationship between the two countries.
Pew Polling Report: Cuba
CBS Poll: Cuba
Pot, Alcohol, Coffee, Salt, Fat & Gluten. Not in that order.
What’s in, and what’s out...of our bodies.
Gallup: Marijuana usage
Gallup: Drinking
Gallup: Drinking highest among educated, upper-income
Gallup: Coffee Consumption
Gallup: Fat and Salt
Gallup: Gluten-free habits
NYT: Americans eating less
Gallup: Americans exercising more
Book Banning
Plans on curling up with a good book this summer? Better act fast because some folks support ratings systems and even bans.
Harris Poll: Censorship
Summertime Overtime
Or maybe just email the office on your vacation. That’s what we do!
Roper Center: Vacation Time
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This week we’re back in the soundbooth, with special guest Baby Beckett! Also, don’t forget to buy Kristen’s book, The Selfie Vote.
What to Trump & Sanders have in common?
Most polling continues to show Trump in the lead, or close to it. Even in the aftermath of his McCain comments. On the Democratic side, one poll show Sanders and Clinton doing equally well in the general. Yet neither Trump nor Sanders believe in polling, it seems. We discuss.
Monmouth: 2016 Iowa poll
WaPo: Trump leads GOP field
Gallup: Trump Core Issue Ratings
Quinnipiac: Sanders head-to-head with Clinton
Huffington Post: Sanders $0 for polling
Trump Pollsters Tweet
Latino Decisions: Threshold to win in 2016
Campaign finance
Speaking of campaign spending, a new poll shows voters divided on the impact campaign finance rules are having on our presidential contest. But how closely are voters studying either?
Monmouth: Campaign finance
Conflicting, simultaneous views on Iran
With the deal back in the news, there is new polling, showing voters simultaneously supportive but cautious.
YouGov: Americans on Iran Deal
AP/GFK: Iran relations
Fox News: Iran Deal
Tweeting all moms!
Ah, parenthood, All the joys, all the Facebook posts…
Pew: Parents and social media
Key Findings:
If it’s Trump vs. Sanders, everyone’s going to move to public polling.
Speaking of a fun field, voters in both parties say campaign finance rules are not helping.
Voters say they’re following the Iran deal, and are both supportive and cautious.
Hey parents out there! Tweet Margie with your advice on having the best maternity break ever!
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In the last two weeks, Kristen had a book & Margie had a baby. But now we’re back with the latest in polling news!
Bet you can’t Trump this!
The polls are pretty clear--Trump is #1. But that doesn’t mean people are taking him seriously. Or does it?
YouGov: Donald Trump/GOP race
Gallup: Trump not seen as serious candidate
Suffolk/USA Today: Trump on top
Washington Post: Trump word cloud
ABC/WaPo Poll: Trump’s favorability
The science on science
“Science” is not just one issue, but a whole litany of topics. Some have demographic drivers, and some don’t. Pew breaks it down.
Pew: Politics and science
I’ll pay you $5 tomorrow for a survey today
Do you need to reimburse cell phone respondents for their time? Pew ran some experiments. But whatever you do, don’t borrow young women’s cell phones--they need them!
Pew: Cell phone respondent reimbursement
Gallup: Smartphones
Gallup: Life Without Smartphones
Grateful for polling
The biggest Deadheads are Republicans. What would Jerry say?
PR Newswire: Grateful Dead poll
Hey baby, what’s your sign?
Is astrology stll a good pickupline? And more importantly, does it predict the future?
YouGov: Horoscopes
Abs are the cure for sexism
Half of America thinks Hollywood is sexist
YouGov: Hollywood Sexism
TIME: Magic Mike vs. Magic Mike XXL
Key Findings:
The verdict is in--Trump is #1. Even though no one seems to want him there.
Views toward science need more science to explain.
You can keep sending respondents $5 reimbursements. Or not!
Kasich is a former deadhead--maybe he’s onto a trend the rest of us don’t know about.
Ladies love astrology, their smartphones, & Magic Mike.
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