The Pod of Gold: Recent Episodes
ABC Refinery
Hosts Nick Frappell and Shae Russell interview members of the ABC Refinery team and industry professionals to better understand today’s investing landscape for precious metals.
ABC Refinery is Australasia’s pre-eminent independent precious metal assayer, refiner and mint. ABC Refinery is the refining division of Pallion, Australasia’s largest independent precious metal services group of companies.
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, host Shae Russell and Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, delve into the recent market volatility and its impact on gold.
They discuss the factors driving recent market events, including significant changes in non-farm payrolls and the Bank of Japan's rate hike.
Nicholas provides a detailed analysis of gold's performance, technical indicators like the Ichimoku Cloud and Point and Figure charts, and the broader macroeconomic influences affecting gold prices.
Tune in to gain insights into the short-term downside and long-term upside potential for gold amidst the current market upheaval.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
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- (0:00) – Introduction
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- (2:30) – Market Recap
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- (5:45) – Gold's Recent Performance
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- (9:15) – Gold Positioning and Indicators
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- (13:30) – Technical Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud
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- (17:00) – Point and Figure Charting
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- (21:45) – Macro Influences on Gold
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- (26:15) – Japan's Economic Policy
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- (30:45) – Key takeaways
In this episode, Nicholas Frappell and Shae Russell delve into gold's recent consolidation, the impact of a strong dollar on Asian currencies, and the effects of market narratives on the yellow metal.
They also explore the implications of US non-farm payrolls, China's pause on gold purchases, and the ongoing expectations around Fed rate cuts.
Finally, they touch on Japan's economic policies and the broader implications for global markets.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
-
- (0:00) – Intro
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- (1:06) – Gold's Consolidation
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- (3:16) – Market Positioning and Data
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- (5:00) – Fed Rate Expectations
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- (7:00) – Official Sector Gold Buying
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- (9:09) – Japan's Economic Policies
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- (14:18) – Emerging Stresses in Asian Currencies
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- (17:08) – Price Targets for Gold
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- (18:55) – Key takeaways
In this episode, Nicholas Frappell discusses: Gold cooling from recent rally, Fed sticking with higher for longer, Managed Money is positive on gold, Bullish targets for silver, and is US$2,600 possible?
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
-
- (0:00) – Intro
-
- (0:48) – What is driving the gold price rise?
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- (5:51) – Managed money in this rally
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- (9:01) – Bullish targets for silver
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- (16:26) – Gold price targets
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- (18:13) – Is US$2,600 possible?
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- (23:24) – Key takeaways
Record at the RIU Resources Round-up: In this episode, Nicolas Frappell unravels the complexities of global currencies and their relation to gold’s current rally, the nuances of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts and how these continue to influence gold.
(1:40) – Myths around the gold market
(7:00) – How much of the rally is Chinese gold buying?
(13:00) – China’s proportion of US dollars hasn't changed
(16:22) – Young women are increasingly buying gold
(20:22) – Options pricing remains magnetic
(26:52) – Key message
In this episode, Nicholas Frappell covers gold's recent move south and the ongoing impact of open interest.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
- (1:31) – Macro forces driving gold down
- (5:36) – Impacts of the SHFE gold contracts
- (8:20) – Markets jump at shadows over potential Fed moves
- (12:10) – Positive outlook for the DXY
- (17:01) – Fast money versus slow money
- (21:43) – One downside target…but large amount of open interest at US$2,500
- (25:05) – Key takeaways: Market embracing ‘higher for longer’.
In this episode, Nicholas Frappell dives into the current drivers behind gold's recent rise, the magnetic pricing effect of open interest and why “2332” is the most important number to watch for April.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
- (1:27) – Fed suggests they will cut rates, gold leaps
- (6:09) – Broader macro forces behind gold
- (8:25) – Bank of Japan and yield curve control
- (15:40) – Fast money leads the market
- (19:58) – Slow money still lags
- (21:58) – Why gold will cluster around US$2,332
- (26:35) – Physical gold demand remains strong
In this episode, Nicholas Frappell discusses the several factors driving gold higher and, where gold may land next and future potential impacts on the yellow metal’s price.
Join us as we delve into these topics and more, offering insights and analysis on gold's macro position and what the future may hold.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
- (0:00) – Intro
- (0:49) – What is driving the gold price rally?
- (4:44) – Geopolitical events impacting gold
- (6:48) – Gold price targets
- (8:49) – Gold managed money positions
- (12:15) – Gold ETF data
- (18:30) – Has new support formed for gold?
- (20:59) – Key takeaways
In this episode Nicholas Frappell puts forward to very bullish long term price targets, he covers why one economist warns rates may not go in the direction people are hoping for and perhaps we have reached peak China doom.
Join us as we delve into these topics and more, offering insights and analysis on gold's macro position and what the future may hold.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
- (1:43) – The market machine versus the Fed
- (3:25) – We still have a positive dollar environment
- (6:05) – Short term gold price targets
- (8:55) – Managed money positioning
- (11:10) – Option strikes for gold remain magnetic
- (12:30) – Could gold move to US$2,500 per ounce?
- (17:59) – Australian rate decisions ‘the canary in the coal mine’
- (21:27) – Chinese market intervention blunts market price discovery
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell discusses the potentially magnetic pricing of gold options, the unforeseen risks of Evergrande winding up and he analyses the continued divergence between the Federal Reserve and market rate cut expectations.
Join us as we delve into these topics and more, offering insights and analysis on gold's macro position and what the future may hold.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:(0:52) What's driving gold prices(1:56) Are rate cuts coming?(6:56) Managed markets on gold(8:38) Evergrande(12:53) US Dollar(14:55) Gold price targets(17:07) Bank of Japan(20:02) Key takeaways
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell discusses the factors contributing to the strength of gold in 2024, including increasing geopolitical tensions, market responses to potential rate cuts, and China's attempt to mobilise 2 Trillion Yuan.
Join us as we delve into these topics and more, offering insights and analysis on gold's macro position and what the future may hold.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.Timestamps:(0:40) What is keeping gold elevated(3:50) Gold's macro position(7:00) Gold & Geopolitics(10:20) Gold price points(14:46) A bullish setup for gold(16:24) China's stimulus package(21:10) Summary for 2024(24:15) Forward looking predictions(25:03) The Pod of Gold - Top 5 gold podcast worldwide
In this episode, Nicholas Frappell discusses gold’s currentbullish set up, the ongoing disconnect between the markets and Federal Reserve Bank comment, the seasonal effects on gold and how real rates are still the main driver for gold.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
Timestamps:
(0:55) Au reacts to US jobs data
(3:36) The ongoing disconnect between the Fed and the markets
(8:40) Managed money positioning
(14:09) Technical price points for gold
(18:31) DXY cycle continues
(23:11) The BoJ gets one chance to exit YCC
(25:33) OPEC struggles to put a floor under oil prices
(30:25) The implicit miss pricing of risk in the Chinese property sector
In this episode Nicholas Frappell covers the gold’s all time high, price retreat and what targets to look for as the price settles.
Why the US data released later this week will determine the outlook going into 2024 and what the Taylor Rule says about the Federal Reserve Bank’s current rate settings.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:00) – Intro
(0:55) – Gold hits a high
(1:20) – What drove gold higher
(4:25) – The data driving the gold price
(6:02) – Gold managed money positioning
(9:00) – Strong rotation into gold
(10:42) – Gold's next price levels (P&F)
(13:30) – Technical setup for gold
(15:02) – Are rate cuts coming?
(19:43) – Bullish on gold
In this week's Pod of Gold episode, Nicholas Frappell covers gold’s potential double top, the exuberance behind the recent bond rally and has the Fed reached its terminalrate?
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:00) – Intro
(1:20) – How likely is a Fed rate cut?
(3:43) – Gold jumping to US$2000/oz?
(6:28) – Geopolitical vulnerabilities
(7:11) – Gold's war premium
(8:08) – How is managed money buying gold?
(13:27) – Gold on the Ichimoku cloud
(16:09) – Gold Point and Figure
(17:44) – Gold Upside Targets
(18:09) – Will the Fed Pause?
(22:56) – RBA joining global tightening.
(26:38) – Key takeaways from this week
In this week's Pod of Gold episode, Nicholas Frappell discusses the ‘war premium’ versus gold’s fair value, geographic threats around the Saudi peninsula, and how the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict will impact gold prices going forward.
Recorded at the International Mining and Resources Conference (IMARC)
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:00) – Intro
(0:35) – Gold technical price targets
(1:30) – Downside targets
(2:09) – Gold's move higher
(4:05) – Is gold adjusting to the conflict?
(6:54) – What is gold's fair value?
(9:45) – How the conflict is impacting gold
(12:58) – Unlikely to see a rapid fall in gold
(14:24) – Managed money agnostic on gold
(16:00) – Key takeaways from the LBMA conference
(18:15) – Key takeaways from this episode
In this episode Nick Frappell discusses why gold's recent drop is the market accepting rates will be 'high for longer', why the Aussie dollar will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future and where gold might head to next.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:00) – Intro
(0:38) – A correction from last week
(2:03) – Gold's recent price moves
(9:50) – Gold price targets
(13:23) – Interest rate picture ahead
(18:45) – Silver discussion
(21:07) – Interest rate targets
(23:33) – Aussie dollar discussion
(28:20) - Chinese property sector weighing on the Aussie dollar
(31:44) - Key takeaways
In this episode we discuss the short term road blocks for gold and why silver still has room to run higher. We cover what the Fed will do between now December and take a look at the why 10yr Treasury divestment is really about the negative carry trade.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:55) – Spot gold bounces off US$1,904
(4:05) – Au trapped ahead of two major central bank meetings this week
(9:01) – Key price targets for gold
(11:57) – Silver: The industrial metal with constrained supply
(16:41) – Managed Money is neutral on silver
(18:20) – Has the US dollar rally played out?
(22:33) – The cost of defending the Yuan
(26:35) – Negative carry trade drives selling of US 10yr Treasuries
Recorded live at the Australian Gold Conference, Gold rallies but Managed Money isn't bullish, yet there's plenty of upside ahead for the yellow metal. Don't be too bearish on China just yet, the trade looks crowded and could surprise you. Plus Bank of Japan's yield curve control and how much lower will the Aussie dollar fall?
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Jordan Eliseo: https://twitter.com/jordaneliseo
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:50) – US dollar rolls off
(2:58) – Managed money isn’t bullish on the yellow metal
(4:14) – Multiple upside targets remain for gold
(7:12) – Journalist coverage suggest rate cuts are coming…
(8:37) - …but you should believe Powell
(9:29) - Betting against China could be a crowded trade
(13:40) – Consumption is trending down and it’s been happening for a long time
(17:57) – Chinese Communist Party likely to opt for micro support over the ‘big bazooka’ of stimulus
(22:38) – Aussie dollar is down, but support looks reasonable
Today we welcome special guest Jordan Eliseo, General Manager of ABC Bullion Australia to discuss the best gold event of 2023, what caused the gold price to pop higher and the technical indicators pointing to an uptrend in gold.
Plus! secure your ticket to ABC Bullion’s Precious Metals Forum 2023 ‘Gold & The Roaring 20s’
https://www.eventbrite.com.au/e/abc-bullion-precious-metals-forum-tuesday-22nd-august-ivy-ballroom-6pm-tickets-662647234717
Use code: PODOFGOLD for 20% off your ticket at checkout
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Jordan Eliseo: https://twitter.com/jordaneliseo
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:00) – Intro
(0:44) – Gold in the roaring 20s
(3:44) – Precious metals forum preview
(6:26) – Factors pushing the gold price higher
(8:57) – Retail sentiment of gold buyers
(11:10) – Gold in a positive uptrend
(13:25) – Gold price predictions for year end
(14:47) – Why this is an unmissable precious metals event
(15:43) – Key insights into precious metals
(16:50) - Getting to know Jordan Eliseo & Nick Frappell
(18:06) - How to join us at ABC Bullion's Precious Metals Forum 2023
Today we discuss gold’s moves ahead of The Fed's July meeting, ANZ Bank's forecast on the Silver market entering a period of tightness unseen for decades, and key targets to watch for the Aussie dollar.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(0:00) – Intro
(0:56) – Gold technical position
(5:09) – Managed money positioning
(8:21) – Short term price targets
(9:34) – Japan data analysis
(11:35) – ANZ Bank report - Silver demand to increase
(17:17) – Australian Dollar targets
(24:13) – Long term forecast for Gold
(25:25) – Key takeaways
Today we discuss gold’s recent dip to US$1,923, how investor interest is neither bullish nor bearish and we take a deep look at past exits from yield curve control and what pitfalls the Bank of Japan may face if they try to normalise policy.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(1:00) – Nick warned of gold's dip to US$1,923 last podcast
(2:39) – Spot gold hasn’t been too reactive to Russian events, though it may have provided support
(4:57) – Technical positioning
(6:24) – Short term bearish, long term bullish
(8:15) – Key Fibonacci level could provide support
(10:59) – Lessons from yield curve control exits
(12:57) – The Bank of Japan is on track for the good kind of inflation
(14:06) – BoJ would be aware of potential consequences after nine years of policy
(16:58) – US implemented YCC from 1942 to 1951
(19:01) – Reserve Bank of Australia’s exit tarnished its credibility
(21:58) – BoJ only central bank in the world in possession of every 2nd government bond issued
(23:11) – The prize of normalisation versus the risks of spillover effects
(24:02) – A grey swan event…and what is the most pressing risk
In this episode The Federal Reserve Bank pauses but assures the market there’s more hikes to come, the Aussie dollar hits its stride but does it have staying payer? Silver’s price moves remain tied to China’s slow moving economy and we have some very bullish price targets for gold.
Recorded at the Mines and Money Conference Melbourne - https://minesandmoney.com/melbourne/
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
- (0:00) - Intro
- (0:28) - Gold technical price
- (3:19) - Support for the Gold price
- (5:18) - News on Silver
- (6:30) - The Fed Decision
- (11:13) - The Australian Dollar
- (18:36) - Key takeaways from Mines and Money conference
- (21:31) - Long term forecasts
- (24:33) - Outro
In this episode we look at the reason’s behind gold’s pivot from 2075 back into the 1940s, how the markets appear to be pricing in a smooth debt ceiling negotiating, and what’s causing the Aussie dollar to fall.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
- (0:00) - Intro
- (0:40) - What's driving gold's downward trend?
- (2:25) - The bullish case for gold
- (4:26) - The debt ceiling issue
- (5:33) - Managed money positioning
- (8:31) - The Aussie dollar falling
- (12:51) - Targets for the Aussie dollar
- (14:21) - Outro
In this episode we look at the ‘powerful macro themes and powerful macro risks’ providing support for gold, how US loan officers are tightening lending conditions in spite of some quantitative easing attempts and why gold could reach US$2,500.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
· (1:18) – Key drivers supporting spot gold.
· (2:27) – Why central banks increased their gold positions in 2022.
· (6:07) – Fed offers a form of QE…
· (9:30) – …which butts up against QT as senior loan officers tighten lending conditions.
· (11:26) – Applying Taylor Rule: rates not as tight as the market thinks.
· (15:32) – US economy still runs a little hot.
· (17:44) – Financial system more leveraged than the past, impacting rate increases.
· (18:29) – The US debt ceiling could be a ‘grey swan’ event.
· (21:35) – An unresolved debt ceiling is ‘not impossible, but unthinkable’.
· (23:26) – Bank of Japan yield curve control.
· (27:22) – Nick overtly bullish on gold.
In this episode we look at what is keeping gold at US$2,000 per ounce and how big bar demand is increasing despite the elevated price. We discussmanaged money’s pivot into gold, how silver’s is riding both gold and copper’s coattails, and why the Fed’s higher for longer rate narrative is about to end.
Time Stamps 1:00 – Gold has moved above past resistance5:48 – Managed Money pivots into gold 8:53 – Asian physical demand softens while gold is elevated10:46 – A degree of consolidation within the rising gold trend 14:03 – Understanding Powell’s preferred measure T-Bill metric19:43 – Futures market indicates higher terminal rate for the Aussie dollar23:21 – Aussie dollar to face resistance around 69 US cents 27:50 – Silver rides gold coattails higher34:10 – Copper’s strength also supports silver36:55 – Poll: Will gold mount a successful challenge to the 'double top' level?
In this episode we analyse why gold has fallen back from its peak despite recent US banks collapsing, we look at the reasons behind the Fed rate hike and why banks will be forced to raise rates, leading to more pressure this tightening cycle.
Time Stamps
1:00 – The gold trade isn’t crowded despite gold’s run3:55 – Traders didn’t want to be short gold with the swirl of news flow 5:25 – Au lost momentum at US$2,000, support remains above US$1,90010:45 – Litigation in the pipeline 12:10 – Substantial short covering in silver15:55 – The Fed couldn’t increase rates by 0.50%…but they couldn’t do nothing either25:55 – Tightening isn’t just being driven by the Fed26:30 – International outlook weighs on Aussie dollar29:22 – Gold and the global economy over 2023
In today’s episode we look at the upcoming FOMC in March and discuss the mismatch between narrative and the futures market when it comes to what the Fed will do next. Nick dissects China’s recent National Party Congress, what the GDP expectations China has put forward mean and the hints which suggest China is looking to internalise consumption. Plus, as gold continues to hug the US$1,850s level, Nick casts his technical lens over the price targets that matter right now and why the US$1,800 level looks supportive.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
- (1:21) – Gold rally lost steam at a key Fibonacci level
- (4:58) – Targets to watch for with gold in the US$1,800 range
- (7.20) – Silver sees an increase in shorts
- (10:05) – Silver reacts to China’s economic reopening
- (12:36) – The Fed are facing a two-speed economy
- (14:50) – Will “higher for longer” be relevant after this week’s data dump?
- (19:06) – Breaking down China’s National Party Congress
- (21:54) – The Aussie dollar’s down move in an aggressive hiking cycle
- (25:21) – Key takeaways
- Link to last episode "What lies above US$2,075 for gold?"
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5htibKWKC3dOwIBMvA60dg
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss why central banks increased their gold position in 2022, why the Federal Reserve Bank may hike a few more times and a key multiyear gold price target to watch.
Time Stamps
· 1:08 – Managed money positing for gold.
· 4:34 – Is silver giving us an industrial take or a precious metals take on the world?
· 8:50 – Higher rates aren’t bad for gold in isolation.
· 14:30 – Can there be an orderly exit from yield curve control?
· 15:31 – Markets still guessing the Fed’s terminal rate.
· 19:00 – Central bank policy is disconnected from Taylor Rule.
· 21:02 – Is a 50-basis point increase from the Fed on the cards?
· 22:13 – Central banks increasing their gold position is about portfolio rebalancing, not de-dollarization.
· 26:51 – Key price target for gold above US$2,075
· 31:44 – Silver sits on support right now.
Can gold stay above US$1,800?
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the potential Fed pivot fed a short covering rally in gold, why the performance of the Australian dollar hinges on China’s economic reopening, and key price targets ahead for the yellow metal.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
- (0:00) – Intro
- (1:04) – The pivot narrative drives gold rally
- (4:52) – Can gold stay above US$1,800?
- (6:53) – Will silver sustain its current momentum?
- (8:43) – Central banks, sticky inflation and “higher for longer” in 2023
- (15:46) – China’s economic reopening affects the Aussie dollar
- (20:57) – Outro
Are bond and equity asset markets pricing interest rate expectations in?
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss why the higher for longer rate narrative is here to stay, we question if equity markets have factored this in, and what this means for gold...
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.0:00 – Intro
- (0:53) – Managed money’s gold positioning
- (5:01) – Silver rally stops right at the Weekly Standard Line
- (7:14) – Federal Reserve doesn’t flinch in the face of markets
- (9:44) – Are bond and equity asset markets pricing interest rate expectations in?
- (10:57) – The drivers behind the Australian dollar movements
- (15:57) – Key Takeaways
- (18:00) - Outro
China’s political reshuffle and the impacts for Australian dollar
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss why gold short positions are still increasing, why central bank policies will keep markets transfixed for some time, and the impact of China’s 20th National Congress meeting on the Australian dollar.
PODCAST INFO:
- ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
- RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
- Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
- Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE:
Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
- (0:00) – Intro
- (0:53) – Managed money’s gold positioning
- (4:41) – Support for gold is close at hand
- (5:33) – Silver has scope for a recovery
- (9:23) – How does the Fed see the market?
- (14:10) – Bank of Japan divergence from other central banks continues
- (21:03) – China’s political reshuffle and the impacts for Australian dollar
- (27:00) – Australian dollar may feel more pain in the medium term
- (27:41) – Key Takeaways
- (30:46) - Outro
Precious metals price action to watch out for
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how managed money is impacting gold positioning, why the Taylor Rule suggests the Fed won’t pivot, and how China’s 20th national congress meeting this week is likely to create a new political cycle in the middle kingdom.
PODCAST INFO:
ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb
RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss
Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
OUTLINE:
Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
- (0:00) – Intro
- (0:32) – Managed money’s gold positioning
- (6:56) – Your question on Ichimoku answered
- (Book by David Linton – Cloud Charts: Trading Success with the Ichimoku Technique - https://amzn.to/3Vauhx3
- (7:52) – Silver currently taking its cue from gold
- (14:18) – What the Fed will likely do next
- (21:24) – A system afloat in debt
- (22:15) – What’s driving the Australian Dollar?
- Nick’s Aussie dollar discussion from August
- (5:53) – Key takeaways
- Receive Nick Frappell’s monthly precious metals technical analysis reports - https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
- Write to Nick and Shae: Content@pallion.com
When it comes to gold, in the end it’s still a rates market
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the Fed’s ongoing battle with inflation, the critical importance of energy security, and what’s really driving the gold price.
- 0:00 – Intro
- 0:41 – Managed money’s gold positioning leading up to the FOMC meeting
- 2:43 – Gold ETF positioning sees approx. 1 million ounces in outflows
- 3:04 – Point n Figure suggests gold could fall to US$1,645
- 5:18 – Gold likely to remain range bound
- 6:23 – Silver holds onto recent rally as short positions declines
- 10:49 – Expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer to ‘vanquish’ inflation
- 13:06 – The central bank divergence continues between Fed and Japan
- 15:04 – Putin under pressure drives a short-lived spot gold rally
- 18:15 – Europe in for a tough decision around energy security coming into winter
- 26:26 – Key takeaways
- 27:30 – Charlie Morris fair valuation of gold - https://terminal.bytetree.com/gold/valuation
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the rotation from gold into US dollars, the dataset that spooked gold markets, and the continuing central bank policy divergence.
Recorded Friday 16th
· 0:00 – Intro
· 0:41 – Managed money slightly bearish on gold
· 2:12 – Gold ETF positioning declined by 1.4million troy ounces
· 2:48 – Why the US dollar is pushing higher
· 3:43 – Gold price movements explained
· 5:29 – US CPI numbers rattled the market, what will this mean for gold going forward?
· 6:09 – What will the Fed do next?
· 11:00 – New price targets for silver
· 14:39 – Resistance levels for gold
· 16:09 – The divergence in central banking policy
· 16:50 – Central Bank divergence and the impact on the Japanese yen
· 22:21 – Interesting forecasts for the Chinese yuan
· 24:27 – US Dollar Index (DXY) discussion and forecast
· 28:55 – Key takeaway for today’s Pod of Gold podcast
· 30:55 – Outro
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how gold failed to move up through a key indicator, how silver appears to have decoupled from copper, and why a once in a decade US dollar rally can trigger a crisis somewhere else.
· 0:00 – Intro
· 0:46 – Managed money gold long and short position update
· 2:40 - Worldwide gold ETFs drop further
· 3:45 - Gold failed to get up through the daily Ichimoku cloud
· 5:37 - Top central bankers deliver hawkish message at Jackson Hole
· 9:02 – U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) resting near historical highs
· 10:22 - A once in a decade dollar rally often creates a crisis somewhere else
· 11:04 – The ECB is engaging in a more aggressive tightening move
· 11:59 – Terminal rate forecast are tilted to the upside 3.75-4%
· 14:35 – Is there a rebound in silver’s future?
· 17:41 - Copper and silver are sending different signals for now
· 18:55 – An important week of data to watch
· 19:27 – US non-farm payroll expectations
· 21:03 – There are some things out of the central banks’ control
· 22:41 – Australian dollar remains on the defensive
· 24:00 – A tighter rate environment worldwide will lead to a shrinking demand for Aussie exports
· 25:31 – Key takeaway for today’s Pod of Gold podcast
· 27:12 - Outro
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the dovish interpretation of the Fed’s July meeting and what that means for gold, why the Australian dollar is still under pressure, and if the Chinese property woes are a contagion event or if the CCP have the problem contained.
· 0:00 – Intro
· 0:37 – Diggers & Dealers in Kalgoorlie
· 1:50 – Federal Reserve raises rates by 75 basis points
· 2:20 – Managed money gold positioning increased very slightly
· 4:15 – Gold ETFs slightly declined
· 4:30 – Gold Ichimoku pauses at a turning point of 1780
· 5:45 – Silver rallies through substantial shorts in the silver market
· 9:10 – The silver price to look out for
· 10:58 – Macro outlook for gold on the back of Fed comments
· 15:59 – How Nanci Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan caused the gold price to move
· 17:34 – Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates as the Australian dollar continues to weaken – Will it fall further?
· 22:19 – Are the Chinese property problems a contagion or are they contained?
· 29:00 – China's economy could be dragged down by loss of confidence in property sector
· 31:22 – Dr Dambisa Moyo’s keynote speech on how you need to be process driven to thrive in instability and chaos
· 33:38 – Outro
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how gold is treading water ahead of the July Federal Open Market Committee, how much higher can the US dollar go, and will the Fed start cutting rates in 2023?
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the impact dollar strength is having on gold and the increasing yield gap between the US dollar and major currencies. Finally, we ask, is there scope in the system for a shock from a highly valued US dollar?
Time Stamps:
· 0.41 – Gold longs aren’t strong, but shorts aren’t convinced
· 3:35 – Point n Figure suggested in April gold would fall to US$1,738
· 6:40 – Gold looked like an outlier compared to inflation linked bonds
· 8:22 – Divergent central bank polices increase the yield gap
· 12:06 – Silver moves with copper but retail demand for silver is strong
· 17:49 – Fed aim to suppress inflation
· 18:61 – Lower growth environment likely to be supportive for gold
· 20:11 – Expectations for a recession have sharply increased
· 23:26 – Option strikes may push gold to US$1,700
· 24:12 – Euro and US dollar at parity, temporary or a the new normal?
· 27:45 – RBA risk significant pain if they lift rates too high
· 31:49 – Aussie dollar falling as export slow, likely to go lower
· 32:29 – Key takeaways
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, we look at what managed money’s lack of rotation is signalling about stagflation fears, the G7’s decision to ban Russian gold imports, how the Fed will manage rate expectations against inflation plus the Bank of Japan’s intervention in their bond market and the inflection point in the Japanese yen.
Time Stamps:
· 0:40 – Managed money not rotating into gold despite stagflation being broadly Au positive
· 3:42 – Gold has held technical support
· 5:24 – Price targets ahead for spot gold
· 8:00 – G7 Russian gold ban, will it have a meaningful impact or is it symbolic?
· 12:10 – Silver and copper prices still move together
· 14:12 – Copper price produces a ‘hammer’ shape on chart
· 17:06 – Fed terminal rate expectations have dropped slightly
· 19:26 – Small divergence between official Fed stance and their research
· 21:24 – China’s property downturn is impacting steel market
· 24:07 – Japanese government bonds and futures no longer correlated
· 27:53 – Key takeaways
Recorded at the Australian Gold Conference on 14th June, in this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell start with ‘the market that matters the most’, the Fed’s 75 basis point increase, discuss liquidity fears not seen since the financial crisis and how gold is holding up remarkably well...
Time Stamps:
· 1:29 – Higher interest rates triggered a ‘violent’ response from markets
· 6.48 – Fed have made it clear they will do whatever it takes to reduce inflation
· 9:55 – Terminal rate now likely above 4% in 2023
· 11:59 – Managed money not overly committed to gold, ETF positioning has plateaued
· 15:13 – Silver may struggle if we experience a global slow down
· 19:52 – Point and figure price targets for gold and silver
· 25:41 – Key takeaways
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the confluence of Fibonacci levels in gold, the duality of views coming from the Federal Reserve Bank, and what Dr copper can tell us about silver.
Time Stamps:
· 1:06 – Gold closes above the weekly cloud
· 5:16 – Spot gold and the confluence of Fibonacci levels
· 8:19 – Point n Figure suggests there’s room for gold to reach US$1,900s
· 9:58 – Shorts are driving silver but for how much longer?
· 14:10 – The duality of views around Fed policy
· 19:00 – Highly indebted financial systems mean ‘you don’t have to do as much’
· 20:34 – Copper is falling with Chinese economic data, taking silver with it
· 23:14 – 15 basis points won’t solve China’s property woes
· 26:36 – Australian dollar falls to where Nick said it would
· 28:30 – Key takeaways
· Episode 16 can be found here: https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/How-much-longer-can-the-US-dollar-rally-last-e1htqoh
Recorded Live from RIU Sydney 2022
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the US dollar may be nearing the peak of its 39-month cycle, why Russia’s war on Ukraine increased inflation risks and what these mean for spot gold.
Time Stamps:
· 0:40 — US dollar strength and real yields
· 2:12 — Russian invasion worsens inflation outlook
· 3:53 — Key factors driving the gold price
· 7:22 — What net positioning in the US dollar reveals
· 10:31 — The importance of the ‘little purple box’
· 12:07 — Three bullish price targets for spot gold
· 15:12 — The gold bull is out – but with a caveat
· 18:19 — High natural gas prices risk food insecurity
· 21:14 — China’s banking sector ‘very linked’ to property
· 24:18 — RBA and inflation: Can they reduce Australia’s inflation pressures?
· 28:15 — Key takeaways
· RIU presentation can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnIE0u9Lqh8
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how one indicator would have tested the resolve of most traders, the absolute smashing for most currencies against the US dollar, why Brent’s retreat won’t last and what could cause gold to jump despite the current strong dollar.
Time Stamps:
· 0:40 — Gold’s shooting star was a warning
· 4:28 — An unpleasant test for traders
· 6:31 — Silver’s falls outside the cloud and challenges the bullish view
· 12:02 — The DXY and its 39-month cycle
· 16:00 — Is the US dollar rally entering its last phase?
· 18:12 — Expectations for the Fed’s terminal rate have moved higher
· 20:13 — Brent sees a soft retreat, yet high targets remain
· 22:59 — There may be an even bigger fall ahead for the Aussie dollar
· 27:23 — Key take away
· Previous episodes referred to can be found here:
o Episode #15 - https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/Crudes-correlation-to-gold-and-why-the-bulls-are-ready-to-charge-e1h73qt
o Episode #14 - https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/Instability-risks-in-China-grow-as-gold-sniffs-out-support-e1grf7a
o Episode #11 - https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/Gold-and-commodities-soar-as-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-drives-markets-e1fegni
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss managed money’s increased short position for gold and silver’s recent bounce. Nick delves into Russia’s recent monetary theatre, then takes a deep look at the bullish predictions for Brent, and crude’s correlation to gold.
Time Stamps
· 0:44 — Managed money is on the defensive, yet technical support for gold is strong
· 7:16 — Nick’s bullish call for silver played out, where to next?
· 10:18 – Russia, rubles, and gold
· 14:05 – Understanding the dollar dominance
· 15:00 — Brent demand drops and takes the crude price with it
· 14:10 — Can Russia’s oil supply be replaced?
· 18:59 — Brent at US$200 per barrel is possible
· 21:26 — Key takeaway: Higher oil prices may lift gold
· 23:32 — Aussie dollar short covering
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the muted moves in spot gold and how support for the yellow metal is inching higher. Nick takes a deeper look at the dollar cost of China’s relentless pursuit of Covid zero, and what the rumblings in the Middle Kingdom’s property sector may mean for the Australian dollar.
Time Stamps:
· 1.00 – Fourth consecutive week of managed money easing positions in gold
· 2.00 – Gold touched and rejected US$1,890 on a weekly basis
· 6.16 – Silver is testing support, needs to hold above US$24.20 in the short term
· 8.35 – The economic and social risks of China’s pursuit of Covid zero
· 14.02 – The parallels between the Chinese and Australian property sector
· 16.01 – Aussie dollar: short term bull, medium term bear
· 19.10 – Key takeaways
· Previous Aussie dollar conversation: Ep 11 @ 20.36min
Link: https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/Gold-and-commodities-soar-as-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-drives-markets-e1fegni
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell look at how Managed Money has reduced their exposure to gold for the third week in a row, why the Fed’s terminal limit is higher than we think, and what the synchronised slowdown in two of the world’s largest economies means.
Time Stamps:
· 0.55 – Managed Money has reduced their positioning in gold three weeks in a row
· 3.10 – Ichimoku weekly standard line has been providing excellent support for gold
· 5.05 – Outflows from gold appear to be moving into cash
· 7.11 – Silver positioned well but vulnerable to industrial demand
· 10.04 – Hawks driving the dialogue coming out of Fed
· 13.07 – Tequila Crisis – a look at past rapid and aggressive tightening cycles
· 15.20 – The world’s two largest economies have problems in their property markets
· 19.43 – China’s pursuit of Covid zero continues – will this policy shift?
· 22.24 – Key takeaways
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the tilt of positioning in gold, some bullish price targets for silver and why the Fed didn’t want to spook the market. Plus, we have an update on China’s property sector, as well as a look at the LME’s day of reckoning last week.
Time Stamps:
· 0.57 – Why gold is difficult to trade during news flow
· 3.10 - Managed Money positioning
· 7.01 – Candle hints at gold price reversal, Ichimoku cloud confirms it
· 8.06 – ‘Silver can and will do anything it wants’
· 10.25 – Downside targets for silver, but still in an uptrend
· 12.02 – FOMC increases rates - what does the tightening cycle look like?
· 16.00 – China’s property problems are not going away
· 19.30 – LME’s day of reckoning
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the different factors influencing gold and silver, soaring commodity prices and the risks to the market plus how the changing of seasons may slow Russia’s invasion in the Ukraine.
Time Stamps:
· 1.30 – Gold has had two cracks at US$2,000 per ounce
· 3.53 – Managed money positioning – shorts are driving gold buying
· 6.07 – The technical picture for silver is strong
· 10.20 – Copper reacting to sanctions on Russia
· 11.41 – Gold and silver in the Ichimoku Cloud
· 13.06 – How the Russian-Ukraine conflict impacts commodities markets
· 16.50 – Reflation trade of 2021 is now inflationary
· 18.40 – Ukraine thaw may hinder Russian mobility
· 20.39 – Australian dollar rally may not last
· 25.02 – Key takeaways
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the Russian-Ukraine conflict may lead to a less aggressive Fed tightening cycle for 2022, silver’s recent short covering and what Russia’s invasion means for gold in the weeks ahead.
Time Stamps:
· 1.00 – Gold volatility and managed money positioning
· 4.00 - ‘War drives up the price of gold but the news flow can drive it up and down tremendously’
· 5.30 – How gold is behaving compared to other currency pairs
· 6.49 – Silver short covering
· 10.04 - Ichimoku Cloud for gold and silver: Technical picture for gold exceeds silver at present
· 12.00 – Fed lift-off likely, but not as aggressive as first thought
· 13.45 – Fed aware of downstream impacts of Russia-Ukraine conflict
· 15.00 – Western response has been swift and more hostile than Russia expected
· 18.25 – Russia may lose access to some of their foreign reserves
· 22.35 – How gold performs during times of conflict
· 25.34 – Key takeaways from today
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss what fast money and slow money suggest about sentiment in gold, how 'when the Fed is in a tightening cycle, we all are' and the dollar positive environment which could provide a headwind for gold.
Time Stamps:
· 1.20 – Gold breaks through the weekly cloud top signalling a swing to the medium term bullish
· 3.40 – Managed money not revealing much
· 6.10 – Silver shorts look to be on the defensive
· 8.45 – Central banking policy divergence - Fed leads pivot toward tightening
· 13.20 – Tightening will create a dollar positive environment and may put pressure on gold
· 16.45 – Gold price going into the close on 11th February
· 18.30 – What is ‘fast money’ and ‘slow money’ telling us about gold?
· 21.20 – Palladium market perhaps not concerned about outcomes of Russia-Ukraine or sanctions
· 24.10 – Rumours of a whale in the gold market
· 28.30 – Key takeaways from today
· Book Nick mentions: Bloodlands: Europe between Hitler and Stalin by Timothy Snyder
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the gold’s price moves, managed money’s short covering in silver, how the yield curve is signalling slower growth and just how aggressive the Fed rate hikes may be. Finally, we touch on what a very long-term Point & Figure chart is telling us about the Aussie dollar.
Time Stamps:
· 1.10 – Physical gold in high demand this week
· 2.20 – Gold price moves within the support and resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud
· 4.45 – Managed money and open interest positioning in gold
· 6.15 – Silver buying January looks to be short covering
· 7.50 – How aggressive with will the Fed rate hikes be?
· 11.30 – The flattening of the yield curve suggests slower US growth
· 13.30 – Gold ETFs signal a pivot away from risk on assets
· 16.15 – Very long term Point & Figure chart is bearish for the Aussie dollar
23.15 – Key takeaways
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss gold’s lively start to 2022 and a strong tightening cycle may drive people away from risk assets to risk-off assets. We assess the recent comments from the Fed and what several rate increases will mean for US dollar denominated debt. Plus, we touch on China’s relentless pursuit of zero covid to protect their export economy.
Time Stamps:
· 0.59 — Fresh longs coming into gold suggest strong interest
· 3.45 — Higher rates may impact risk assets more than gold
· 5.15 — Silver ready to run? Managed money positioning looks supportive
· 7.41 — Movement in gold and silver ETFs
· 9.06 — The impact of US bond yields and geopolitical tensions on gold
· 10.33 — Did Powell’s comments drive gold higher?
· 13.15 — Rate hikes from Fed may impact US dollar denominated debt
· 14.40 — Quantitative tightening - the market is prepared for this
· 18.00 — China’s untenable pursuit of Covid zero to protect their export economy
· 21.270 — Nat gas prices have fallen as EU shipping ports are full
· 22.00 — Key takeaways from today: Understanding the macro and the micro
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the short position building behind gold and silver, however the longs are holding their nerve. We look at the Fed’s hawkish tapering then tightening promise to the market, and the impact that will have on both the US dollar and gold. Finally, we wrap up with the paths of propagation emanating from Evergrande, and how 2022 may bring more doom for the Chinese property sector.
Time Stamps:
· 1.20 – Shorts move in behind gold, but longs provide support
· 5.00 – Room for a big move up and Au’s support is nearby
· 6.10 – Silver continues to hug US$22.50
· 6.40 – Ag shorts increase though longs aren’t spooked
· 9.45 – Recent FOMC has increased pressure on gold
· 11.02 – Looks like tightening, but is it enough tightening from the Fed?
· 13.00 – Negative real rates support gold, but a strong US dollar pushes back
· 14.22 – Central banking policies diverge – is this a welcome return to normal?
· 17.15 — Chinese property defaults grow – a large maturity schedule ahead in 2022
· 22:00 — Key insights from today’s episode
· 23.40 – What should we know going into 2022?
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how gold’s plunge has settled with spot gold’s consolidation looking supportive. Plus, as the Fed drops ‘transitory’ from its language, the hawkish tone from the central bank sets up a strong US dollar.
Time Stamps:
· 1.15 — Managed money gold flows – longs have reduced but not really replaced by shorts
· 3.10 — Gold holds key Fibonacci level and looks to be consolidating
· 4.35 — Momentum in silver fades, but it’s not time to get bearish
· 6.32 — Federal Reserve Bank sets a hawkish tone
· 7.02 — Risk on pivots to risk off
· 9.50 — Inflation is currently a US phenomenon
· 11.21 — Gold looks undervalued under US$1,800
· 12.30 — Room to taper: Why buy mortgage backed securities in a red hot market?
· 15.15 — Will we have a strong US dollar into 2022?
· 16.40 — Key insights from today’s podcast
Need a precious metals update in a hurry? This is the one for you. Meet The Pod of Gold’s five minutes or under discussion of what’s moving precious metals right now. Today, Nick Frappell explains how the price consolidation in gold is setting up exciting upside targets.
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell take a look at the technical positioning building in gold and silver, as Managed Money appears to be emphatically bullish on both precious metals. Then Nick points to an unexpected move in crude shorts and what this may be signalling to the market. Listen now.
Time Stamps:
- 1.45 – Gold: The fall was expected
- 3.55 – A wall of money moves into gold
- 8.00 – Silver takes a hit, but the big picture hasn’t changed
- 10.40 – Strong interest from Managed Money forming in silver
- 13.25 – Short positions increase in crude and what this means
- 19.10 – US$1,830s price level no longer a price barrier for gold
- 22:06 – Key takeaway
Need a precious metals update in a hurry? This is the one for you. Meet The Pod of Gold’s five minutes or under discussion of what’s moving precious metals right now. Today, Nick Frappell explains which technical indicator is guiding the gold and silver price and what the surge of managed money moving to into gold and silver means.
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the recent rally in gold brings two very exciting levels into play and Nick expands on what the increase in open interest in the futures market may mean. Then we shift gears and discuss the race between the Federal Reserve Bank and the bond markets: which one of the two knows more about when rates will rise?
To wrap up Nick looks at the paths of propagation coming from the Evergrande collapse, as smaller Chinese real estate developers miss bonds payments.
Click below to listen now.
Time Stamps:
- 1:00 - Gold rally warms up
- 3:55 - Managed money positioning
- 5:50 - Flows from gold backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) and open interest
- 9:04 – Silver looks to be finding support
- 11:34 - Will the Federal Reserve bank converge pm the market or will the market converge on the Fed?
- 19:98 – Fed points to the risk of potential destabilisation in China as corporate bond defaults are no longer contained to Evergrande.
- 24:08 – The most important message from today’s podcast according to Nick and Shae
Need a precious metals update in a hurry? This is the one for you.
Meet The Pod of Gold’s five minutes or under discussion of what’s moving precious metals right now.
Today, Nick Frappell explains gold’s recent rally, and some key price targets above US$1,830 per ounce.
Listen now.
In this episode Nick Frappell and Shae Russell discuss gold’s continued point of resistance and the critical price barrier it must cross through. Managed money tells us there’s indecision around the silver price.
Nick explains how global central banks policies are diverging and wrap with how the recent Australian bond price rally questions whether the Reserve Bank of Australia can wait until 2024 for a rate increase.
· 0:40 – Technical summary of gold’s current positioning
· 3:23 – Key price barrier ahead for gold
· 5:21 – Silver recent rally
· 11:58 — The global central bank rate divergence
· 17:51 — Australian bonds rally challenges RBA’s no rate increase until 2024
· 23:14 — Impacts on Australian currency if rates rise sooner than expected
· 25:57 — Conclusion
Nick Frappell and Shae Russell discuss the technical pressures facing both gold and silver, as well as key prices levels ahead.
In the second half of today’s podcast, Nick looks explains how a key equity earnings index may be waving a red flag, what a crisis simulation from 2013 can reveal about the US debt ceiling problems, and the paths of propagation from Evergrande begin.
0:52 – Silver is under pressure
6:06 – Gold will struggle at 1790s
10:30 – Global earnings indicator potential red flag
12:24 – What happens if there’s no binding debt ceiling? A crisis simulation from 2013.
23:58 – The second Chinese real estate developer defaults
26:48 – Conclusion