It's the Business with Phil Dobbie: Recent Episodes
Phil Dobbie
A daily business podcast with Phil Dobbie. Not just the day's UK business headlines, but clear explanations of what it means. Everything you need to get your day started.
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Thursday 29th April 2021
The retail landscape is changing, with us having relied more on deliveries and click and collect during the COVID crisis. Susannah Streeter from Hargreaves Lansdown tells Phil Dobbie how Sainsbury’s, who reported their annual earnings yesterday, has seen a big increase in online sales for Argos, as more people click and collect goods during their weekly shop. So, will we look to a similar online-instore hybrid approach to our shopping even when COIVD has gone? Mustafa Khanwala, CEO of MIshipay, explains how their scan and go product allows users more control of their shopping experience, and why he believes it is an important component of bringing people back to the High Street (and away from Amazon).
Wednesday 28th April 2021
The European Commission voted yesterday on the trade agreement that has been in operation since the start of January. Their President Ursula von der Leyen warned, in the European parliament yesterday, that they were prepared to use unilateral actions to ensure that the rules are adhered to, confirming that the UK-EU relationship is going to be a rocky one for some time to come. On today’s podcast Phil Dobbie talks to economist Vicky Pryce about the impact of the UK’s withdrawal so far, the problems we face and how we can go about fixing the issues.
Tuesday 27th April 2021
The Independent’s Travel Editor Simon Calder joins phil Dobbie on today’s podcast to talk about the state of the travel industry in what is likely to be a very disappointing summer all round. Even though Ursula Von der Leyen has said the EU will open up to tourists who have had double vaccinations, it’ll take a while for a lot of the UK to meet that criteria, and there’s also the risk that travellers will face quarantine when they return to home. So, will airlines survive in the meantime? Most will, either by good management or, in the case of Alitalia, lots of propping up by the government.
Also today, briefly, Tesla’s earnings from yesterday, muddied by Elon Musk’s Bitcoin fixation. And a look at the morning’s papers, which are almost all fixated with Boris’ pile ‘em high comments.
Monday 26th April 2021
Shares advisor Rodney Hobson is on It’s the Business today to discuss where the markets will go now? The FTSE100 lost one percent last week, which may not be a lot in the scheme of things, but it is hovering around the psychological 7000 barrier for the first time since the pandemic. Could it break through and rise higher on the back of all hopes of a summer of big spending, or could it hld back on fears of a delayed recovery as the rest of the world struggles with vaccine deployment and rising infection numbers? Rodney also suggests if inflation was to come back to bite, all the more reason to invest in shares sooner rather than later.
Also today, the Oscar winner for best picture, the inconsequence of a UK-Australia trade deal and expect to hear a lot more about Paula Vennells today.
Politicians the world over have been scurrying around for climate pledges in preparation for today’s Climate Summit, called by President Biden. Today Phil Dobbie talks to environment journalist Lucy Siegle about what, if anything, will be achieved. Can climate change be stalled by political pledges that may, or may not be adhered to? What was really been achieved by the Paris Climate Accord, and is there much to be gained from the US trying, now, to take the lead on the environment? More significantly, are consumers prepared to accept the sacrifices that are needed if we are to save the planet? Lots of big questions crammed in to a half hour show!
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Wednesday 21st April 2021
This week Rishi Sunak launched support for banks to offers 95% mortgages. Why? House prices are out or near record highs, so is this a sector that needs government intervention. What’s worse, won’t it simply inflate prices even higher. Property commentator says Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are playing fast and loose with the property market.
Could they be encouraging people into low interest loans, with the prospect of rate rises a year or two down the track. Numbers from the ONS this morning show inflation remains low in the UK, but its rising, and producer prices are becoming a real concern. If those costs get passed on we could see consumer prices rising to the point where central banks have to move faster on interest rates.
The plans for a new Super League fell apart overnight. Football can stay as it was. But should it? Phil Dobbie asks sports broadcaster Jonny Gould what was wrong with the plans for a Super League. Couldn’t it bring new money into the game?
All that, and the rest of the business news, in a bumper edition. You’re welcome!
Tuesday 20th April 2021
Three stories on today’s podcast. First, the latest employment data from the ONS, just out this morning. Phil Dobbie dissects it hot off the press.
Secondly, all the newspapers are filled with shock and awe over the Super League plans for six English football clubs, with the Prime Minister promising to do something about it. We ask, what’s it got to do with them, and is there a simple answer to this problem. If it is a problem.
Finally, Phil asks Kallum Pickering, Senior Economist at Berenberg Bank, whether the uK or the US has taken the best approach to guiding the economy through the pandemic. The UK furloughed workers, at the risk that some of the preserved jobs might no longer exist, post-pandemic. The US let their unemployment rate shot up, paying higher benefits in the interim. Now all except the very rich are receiving their second stimulus payment to spend as they wish. Which approach makes the most sense. Listen and then you decide.
Monday 19th April 2021
Bitcoin lost 15% yesterday. We know it’ll bounce back, but for how long. Maybe its worth considering what American billionaire Ray Dalio predicted last month, that Bitcoin would eventually be outlawed. We look at reasons why he might be right.
Also today, trade figures last week showed that the UK’s exports to the EU were still 20 percent down at the end of February. At an inquiry by the UK Trade and Business Commission last week Julian Jessop said the impact hadn’t been as bad as many had feared. Really? How bad were we expecting it to be?
And personal finance expert Jasmine Birtles, from MoneyMagpie.com, gives ideas for side hustles, from getting money from research companies to playing gambling companies at their own game. A fun start to the week with Jasmine!
Thursday 15th April 2021
Cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase listed on the NASDAQ yesterday. Almost immediately it pulled the value of tech stocks down, whilst the value of Bitcoin also dropped. Today Phil Dobbie asks whether Coinbase will become the defacto share trading indicator for the value of Bitcoin. Can Coinbase do well, for example, if Bitcoin is falling, and vice versa.
Also, as more of us work from home infrastructure providers are focusing more on Edge Computing. James Bourne, Editor in chief at TechForge media, explains what Edge Computing is, and how it relates to the cloud and other emerging technologies, including AI.
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You’d have to be the most optimistic optimist to assume that in a few months COVID-19 will be all but a memory. It will still be around and we could still be spreading it, with or without a vaccine. It’s not over until everyone is vaccinated, which means a track and trace system remains as important as ever. But we never got it right in the UK, through administrative bungling, dodgy contracts and because people just can’t be bothered to register everytime we go somewhere. So, perhaps we will need to introduce vaccine passports. Or maybe, we’ll just get used to a lot more facial recognition cameras around the place. How we do we feel about that? Today I talk to technologist Peter Cochrane about the role of technology in beating the spreading of COVID-19 and any other pandemics that come along.
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Tuesday 13th April 2021
China saw its economy expand last year, whilst the rest of us saw significant declines. This year they are expected to outgrow the rest of the developed world even more so. to Vicky Pryce says China was expected to eclipse thew US economy by 2030, but now it could happen a couple of years sooner. That assumes we continue to trade with China to a greater extent that we do already. But how will that relationship cope with political pressures over human rights and territorial disputes.
Also today a first-look at the UK’s latest GDP figures – which were up for February - more on David Cameron’s government lobbying, vaccine numbers and Lord King’s strange ideas about killing off companies while they’re down.
Monday 12th April 2021
Today, Rodney Hobson talks about cyclical stocks – shares that might bounce back after a recession. But how different is it this time? And what of counter-cyclical stock, those that have done well during the downturn but will lose ground as the lockdowns ease. We also talk about investing in overseas shares and getting started with this year’s ISA.
Also today, the unfolding story of Greensill Capital and Liberty Steel. Whilst news reports =unearth just how much David Cameron lobbied on behalf of Greensill, there’s also the ,more damaging question of alleged fake invoicing unearthed by Greensill’s administrator. Is this fraud?
And it’s a significant day in the easing of lockdowns, with shops, gyms and hairdressers able to re-open. But just how exposed are businesses. We take a look at some ONS figures released on Friday that show how close to the wind some companies are flying.
Friday 9th April 2021
Will you be heading out to eat out at a restaurant on Monday? Under the easing of lockdown rules you can from Monday, but you have to sit outside. And it’s going to be cold and wet on Monday. No matter people will put on a warm coat and embrace the opportunity, according to to Patrick Hooykaas, Managing Director at TheFork, the restaurant booking app formally known as Bookatable. So, what will have changed and how will restaurants cope as social distancing rules will continue to restrict their capacity and revenue.
Also today, Phil Dobbie talks through how Joe Biden plans to fund his $2.25 trillion infrastructure program. He wants to raise corporate tax rates and get other countries to do the same. Is there an appetite for a global approach to taxation. Perhaps there is if it means we can ensure digital behemoths pay their fair share. But isn’t it the sort of control we didn’t want to see from the EU. Are we really prepared to take it from the US?
Plus, would you ever put ‘Stay at Home Mum’ or ‘Stay at Home Dad’ on your CV?
Thursday 8th April 2021
The UK is a bit player when it comes to steel production. China, for example, produces at least 150 times more than us. But if we want to be assured of quality, and if we want to ensure that it is produced with the least environmental damage, then we need to produce for our domestic needs. That’s the view of David Bailey, professor of Business Economics at Birmingham Business School and a senior fellow at King’s College’s UK in a Changing Europe. Does that mean the government does need to bail out Liberty Steel and accept that the industry will need subsidising, possibly forever?
Also today, the hiccup in vaccine deployments as the Astra Zeneca vaccine is declared vaccine of last resort for the under thirties. COVID-19 cases flare up in Michigan. And Deliveroo cyclists have taken to the streets in protest as shares trade openly for the first time.
Wednesday 7th April 2021
Economies are already bouncing back from the worst of the COVID-19 crisis. Yesterday the IMF forecast that the UK economy would grow by 5.3% this year, helped by the fast vaccine rollout. The forecast for the US has also been upgraded, from 3.1 percent growth this year in a forecast last October forecast, to 5.1% now. These numbers are supported by improving jobs numbers and other economic indicators, yet central banks keep insisting that the recovery will take years and until then, interest rates will stay low and they will keep buying up government bonds. Today I talk to Patronus Partners CEO Paul Kavanagh about the role of central bonds in controlling bond prices (and yields), and how this is driving all other asset classes, including the value of shares. Paul says tis approach is a long from a free market but it is driving investment in risk assets that will help the government recover. How we manage the debt is a different issue, he says, so long as we don’t try and balance the books too quickly and incur the sort of devastation we saw during the Thatcher years.
Tuesday 6th April 2021
Estate agency businesses are moving online and have been for many years. Yet, estate agents still occupy expensive real estate in many of our towns and cities. Today industry commentator Russel Quirk says those days are numbered. So ,what is the model for real estate sales moving forward?
Also, as Boris eases lockdowns in the UK, infection rates continue to rise in France, with a slow vaccination program across Europe and rising vaccine scepticism. Across the Atlantic the US economy seems to be going gangbusters because vaccines are rolling out quickly and the government is investing heavily in the recovery. Will we see a global two speed recovery? Forecasts today will tell us what the IMF thinks.
Thursday 1st April 2021
Joe Biden has unleashed another couple of billion dollars of spending on the US economy, focusing largely on infrastructure. It’s aimed to create jobs for the middle class, and build growth from the middle out, not from the top down. Boris Johnson promised to level up the UK economy of course, and even spoke of a green new deal, but not of that made it into Rishi Sunak’s budget earlier in the year. Couldn’t we benefit with a green revolution, with Bidenesque sized government investment?
Meanwhile, what can we do to help the environment at an individual level. Environmental journalist Lucy Siegle joins me today and suggests we could start by looking at our pensions. Recent research has shown that 29 percent of us would change the companies their pension was investing in if they discovered how unsustainable they were. So, does that mean the rest of us are lazy and unconcerned? And hoiw many of us even know which companies are in our pension’s share portfolio?
Wednesday 31st March 2021
Royal Mail announced the return of dividends yesterday and reaffirmed an expected operating profit of £700 million for the 2020-21 financial year. Sussanah Street, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, joins phil to talk about the potential for the business, with growth focused on its international business. So how will it cope with parcel competition in the local market.
Also today, Deliveroo list on the London Stock Exchange. Whatever happens I the first few hours of trade, there have to be concerns about the viability of the business in the long term. First, there’s the distinct possibility that they could face the same sort of court ruling as Uber at some point, but, more fundamentally, their Prospectus makes some questionable claims about the size of the contestable market for food delivery services.
In the US you can now use Bitcoin on Paypal. Is that a game changer. Phil says not. Imagine using it to buy a second hand jumper on eBay. How many decimal places will you type in as you try and transfer the money?
Tuesday 30th March 2021
You can make some quick wins on your website to fix obstacles that might be stopping customers buying from you. But when you’ve been through the low hanging fruit, what do you do next? Do you go for a complete site rebuild to fix more fundamental issues? That can be expensive and there’s no guarantee you’ll see enough incremental business to warrant the expense. Today Dicken Doe, from Foolproof, talks through the importance of analysing data to understand customer behaviour and deliver a far more effective outcome for your business.
There’s also more on the block trade yesterday that saw $20 billion sold off in a fire-sale by Archegos Capital. We ask how can this have been allowed to happen, and who really loses from the experience? Spoiler alert, ordinary shareholders.
Plus, Beth Rigby, riddled with irony. And the blockage in the Suez, does anyone know the financial impact of that little episode?
Monday 29th March 2021
The FCA is worried that many new investors are gambling on shares for all the wrong reasons. Today on the podcast Rodney Hobson says he isn’t too concerned, it’ll reach a valuable lesson to those who lose out. A bigger concern, he says, is when the regulator fails to protect investors in managed funds, like Neil Woodford’s now defunct operation.
Also, Phil Dobbie asks whether we can expect a volatile week, after some sharp moves in US markets on Friday. There was Goldman Sach’s $10.5 million block trade, and massive sell-offs in two media giants. One of those giants is the backer of Andrew Neil’s GB News.
And speaking of news, Australia’s Channel Nine News was off air in Sydney yesterday, because of a cyberattack, they claim by Russia. The problem was, all their news software and content now sits in the cloud. Another channel that will be cloud driven – Andrew Neil’s GB News.
Friday 26th March 2021
The Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane famously said the UK economy will bounce back this year, like a coiled spring. There could be two reasons why he is wrong. First, vaccine nationalism continues, with the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen reiterating that Europe needs to play catch-up before exporting vaccines to the UK. Secondly, the expectation is that Britons will dip into their savings, which have increased during the lockdowns, to splash out once the shops reopen. But But finance expert Rachel Springall, from moneyfacts.co.uk, highlights some research that many of us have shifted behaviour and are much more likely to hang on to our savings. She joins Phil on the podcast this morning.
Also, a British company you probably haven’t heard of listed on the NASDAQ yesterday, with anet worth of $13 billion. Arrival makes electric vans and electric buses – or they will. They’ve reached that valuation without actually selling anything. Meanwhile Ed Miliband is challenging Boris Johnson to come up with a strategy for the adoption of electric cars, even though he doesn’t have one himself.
Thursday 25th March 2021
The ad industry was hit as hard as most other industries during the ACOVID crisis. Some sectors, like cinema advertising, had to shut down completely. So how quickly will it bounce back? Phil puts that question to Gideon Spanier, editor in chief of ad-industry journal Campaign. They also discuss how advertisers can achieve cut-through when there are so many media choices, and a consumer spending more time on ad-free subscription content.
Also today, the container vessel that’s blocking world trade. Is this the time to ask, do we rely too much on goods shipped half way round the world. The consequences for the planet are enormous.
Trade in vaccines is also in the spotlight, a the EU drafts a law to block exports to the UK. And why Kim Jong Un chose last night as the time to launch a couple of ballistic missiles. For testing purposes only, of course.
Wednesday 24th March 2021
As we head out of lockdown, soonish, which habits adopted in the last 12 months will stay with us. Futurologist Tom Cheesewright has been looking at our spending habits, using data from Barclaycard, and suggests that some of these behaviours will carry-on beyond COVID-19, which could be very good news for our local shops.
Phil Dobbie also looks at yesterday’s job numbers from the ONS and says a fall in the unemployment rate doesn’t represent the real picture – people are continuing to work less even though the roads are busy.
One of the papers today points to Boris Johnson’s criticism of the BBC, mainly because of how they supposedly mocked the Union flag. We look at the BBC Director General’s astonishingly poor performance in front of a Select Committee this week and ask if it’s time for a root and branch review of the organization. The viewing habits of young people is particularly telling.
And now one year on, Britain is recovering from COVID-19 faster than most. A report suggests it’s a less rosy picture in the US which could be heading for the perfect storm of a partially vaccinated population returning to life as it was.
Tuesday 23rd March 2021
It’s one year ago today that Britain first went into lockdown. Today we look ahead at one industry that could help lead the UK into a brave new world, creating jobs and boosting our GDP – artificial intelligence. But are we a contender to be one of the world leaders inthis space? After all, we seem to have stuffed up attempts at managing large scale data during this pandemic. Seb Krier from Dataphysix says there’s no reason why not. We already are. And we can retain our stronghold if we get the policy settings right. He takes us through what has to change.
Plus, Jerome Powell, governor of the US Federal Reserve Bank, was talking at a BIS seminar yesterday. The topic was digital currencies. We dip into what he had to say about cryptocurrencies in particular, and ask whether central banks are concerned about the impact alternate currencies will have on their ability to use sovereign currencies to fund government debt, of which there’s a lot more these days.
Monday 22nd March 2021
Personal finance export Jasmine Birtles from Money Magpie joins Phil today to look at money saving ideas, including taking in the online bots that push you to buy more. She also looks at how to prepare for the end of the tax year and discusses non-fungible tokens.
Also today, the vaccine war with the EU. Has it, and the rising infections on the continent, put an end to hopes of a summer holiday in the sun this year. Unless the weather in Cornwall is particularly good this summer.
And Rishi Sunak didn’t offer anything too radical in his budget. Has he been saving himself for tomorrow, when he unveils a series of papers on proposed tax changes?
Friday 19th March 2021
In January the number of passengers travelling through UK airports was 81 percent lower than a year before. That’s after a year where the industry struggled to cut costs and control massive losses. So what shape will the industry be in when it comes out the other side? Phil Dobbie talks to airline industry strategist John Strickland from JLS consulting, who says the sector desperately needs to see a quick return to flying this summer, but admits there are no guarantees.
Maybe the return of holidays in the sun will be expedited by vaccine passports. Ursula von der Leyen has announced a certificate within the EU. Could Britain be asking if they could join in with the Euro-areas scheme?
And tensions are rising between the US and China and the US and Russia. Those who thought Jo Biden might be a soft touch will have to think again. Overnight China has said Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan are inseparable Chinese territories and they oppose US interference. Watch this space.
Thursday 18th March 2021
The Bank of England meets today and will change very little. Certainly don’t expect a rate hike anytime soon. In the US the Federal Reserve indicated that rates wouldn’t rise until late 2023 at the earliest. Kallum Pickering from Berengers Bank says it might happen a little sooner than that, but its not necessarily a bad thing. But what would it mean for your mortgage?
Also today, how Dominic Cummings negotiated his way into No. 10. Is the upping of our nuclear capability a result of his early demands on the Prime Minister?
Plus, yesterday Uber adopting the requirements to pay the minimum wage to drivers, who will now be treated as workers, rather than independent suppliers. But, are they really meeting the minimum wage requirement? And is the original business model now defunct in this country?
Wednesday 17th March 2021
Those who are expecting nosiness to come flying in through the door as lockdown measure ease might be sorely disappointed. You need to work on regaining your customer’s trust and accept that consumer behaviour might have changed. One piece of advice from entrepreneur Richard Crawford Small is that just shouldn’t just reopen the doors, you should use this as an opportunity to relaunch your brand. It’s one of six things to consider that he covers off in today’s podcast.
Also, Matthias Corman is the Secretary General elect for the OECD. It might be bad news if it wasn’t for the fact the OECD has very little power or influence. The Royals are all over the newspaper front pages again, and the FOMC, the group within the US Federal Reserve who determine interest rates and QE, meet this evening, our time.
Oh, and you can use the word Memphis again. It was banned by Twitter for a while. We celebrate with eight songs with Memphis in the title – can you name the artists?
Tuesday 16th March 2021
At least a million people are out of work as a result of COVID-19, whilst a further 4.7 million people are being kept in work by the government’s furlough scheme. So what happens when the scheme ends? Dr Nicola Headlam from business intelligence firm Red Flag Alert, reckons a further 275,000 people will lose their jobs. On today’s podcast she says there’s an urgent need for a strategy beyond the necessary short-termism that’s been driving public policy so far.
Also today, Europe slows down it’s vaccine rollout over concerns of blood clots, Deliveroo set for a UK IPO and are BT workers set to strike? And the important question, are there too many letters in the alphabet. Wich ones could you do witout?
Monday 15th March 2021
On today’s podcast share expert Rodney Hobson joins Phil Dobbie to go through five companies that are worth investing in because they have restored their dividends. Rodney says he always prefers to invest in companies that demonstrate stability by paying dividends, rather than going for growth stocks.
Also today, will the governments new 308 page Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill be the first significant defeat for the Johnson government, and will they also backflip on the 1 percent pay for wages. Phil asks, is this time for a review of the way we pay for the NHS.
Friday 12th March 2021
Today we look at the opportunities in the buy to rent market. Real estate guru Russel Quirk says there are good returns to be made compared to other asset classes and, if you were to invest, we look at areas that could work well for you.
Plus, the answer to the chicken and egg question is clearly, the chicken came first. But what about the question of supply and demand. Which comes first. Phil Dobbie explains why Joe Biden’s stimulus package might answer that question once and for all.
And the European Central Bank, buying more bonds to keep interest rates low. How Carole King is singing to encourage Americans to take the vaccine. And should men just stay in at night?
Thursday 11th March 2021
Lex Greensill’s finance company had strong backing and a business model providing services that were in high demand, providing cash flow for companies by paying for invoices as they were issued. But this week, somehow, it all came crashing down and many companies around the world are caught up in the fallout. That includes Liberty Steel, the firm that bailed out the British steel industry as Tata were set to walk away from the country. Today economist Steve Keen talks through the Greensill business model and what the government should be doing about steel supplies.
Also today Phil Dobbie looks at the passing of the US Recovery Bill, seeing $1.9 trillion injected into the US economy. When we can look back on it, it’ll provide an interesting case study of how two eocnomies – the US and the UK – came out the other side of the pandemic.
Wednesday 10th March 2021
Government bond yields have been rising sharply in the last month. Why does this matter? On today’s podcast Paul Kavangh from Patronus Partners joins Phil Dobbie to explain how bond yields work and why inflation fears have been driving them higher. Does this mean we could see interest rates sooner rather than later? Nope. Paul explains hwo central banks will keep buying up government bonds to keep the yields in check.
Also today, did Piers Morgan stage manage his own walkout, was the return to school premature and will reducing flight levies really create a more connected UK?
Tuesday 9th March 2021
The government gave £4 billion to the various rail franchises in the six months to September – under Emergency Measures Agreements. It’s likely another £4 billion has been spent since. That’s on top of the subsidies rail companies had already been receiving. This dependency on public money won’t go away when COVID-19 is under control. There’s an expectation that daily commutes into work are a thing of the past. Phil Dobbie asks rail industry advisor Sir Michael Holden whether the government has a strategy.
Also today, encouraging signs on how the UK is controlling the virus, but the same can’t be said for Italy. Are rising interest rates closer than we thought? And is the Chinese government bailing out its own share market?
Monday 8th March 2021
The UK has made a unilateral decision to extend the grace period of border checks for food imports into Northern Ireland. The EU says it is a breach of the Northern Ireland protocol and are threatening to sue. Meanwhile supermarkets are moving warehouses to the Republic of Ireland to service this detached part of the UK. Today Phil Dobbie asks Prof Alex de Ruyter if there’s a workable solution to the problems of the Irish border, and whether the Northern Ireland protocol could ever be the answer?
Also today, free money into the hands of most Americans, Starling bank reaches for the sky and how the Murdoch press is welcoming International Women’s Day.
Friday 5th March 2021
On today’s podcast Peter Cochrane talks about how the COVID crisis has seen some leveling-up when it comes to the use of technology. Technophobes have got with the programme and that will help drive greater adoption in the years that follow. The opportunity is lost though if we don’t improve broadband connectivity – and it’s fixed line connectivity that counts, he says. He adds, we shouldn’t get too distracted by the promises of 5G. The future will increasingly be driven by data, that will help fine tune the products we consume. But what about the privacy issues that creates? Listen in for a fascinating half hour discussion on what the immediate future holds. And Phil Dobbie asks, wouldn’t it be helpful if the government had some sort of roadmap?
Thursday 5th March 2021
Yesterday Rishi Sunak announced the furloughing of workers would continue until September, along with further support for the self-employed, including those whose businesses only started out last financial year. There were other measures too to help support industries. So, it was basically more COVID spending, adding to the government’s budget deficit. And yet Rishi Sunak has been repeatedly making the point that the budget needs to be returned to good order and he hopes to achieve that through tax rises for corporations and, by freezing the tax thresholds, increasing tax for households, with lower income families hit proportionately harder. Today Phil Dobbie talks to economist John Ashcroft, who writes the Saturday economist blog, about the good, the bad and the ugly of yesterday’s budget.
Wednesday 3rd March 2021
It’s already been revealed that the furlough scheme will be extended until September, and that the Chancellor will also extend support for the self-employed. But will Rishi’s budget today plug some of the gaps for those working for themselves, who have struggled through this crisis with no government support whatsoever. And could some of today’s budget measures make life more difficult for them? Andy Chamberlain, from the Association of Independent Professionals and the Self-Employed, talks through just how dire the situation is for many of those working for themselves.
Plus, yesterday the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee questioned the independence of the Bank of England as they continue to buy up government debt. Alistair Darling was amongst those participating, where the question was raised about whether the banks remit needs to change to include a target on employment. Phil Dobbie talks through what happened at the committee yesterday, and asks whether we’re actually seeing the adoption of Modern Monetary Theory by stealth.
Tuesday 2nd March 2021
Last week government bond holders went on a bit of a selling spree. Was it because they saw a bright future and could spend the more on riskier pursuits, like the share market? Or was it because they thought inflation would kick in devaluing the bonds they were holding? Berenger’s Kallum Pickering says it’s a bit of both, but markets are trading as though the economy will bounce back in spring and summer. The sunny uplands. Let’s hope so, although the Manaus strain of the virus is a growing concern, and are kids going back to school too quickly? Plus, does the future of the city rest with SPACs?
Monday 1st March 2021
This last year has seen a massive spike in retail holdings of shares, in the UK and around the world. If you are panning in joining in, or if you are looking for some inspiration for portfolio choices, listen in as shares expert Rodney Hobson gives Phil Dobbie five shares to look at right now. Also, we’re all eyeing up the road out of lockdown, but could it go off the rails? And Donald Trump is back, addressing Conservative Political Action Conference yesterday, and using some of his best lines. It was fabulous, unbelievable, the best ever, you have to believe me.
Friday 26th February 2021
Supposedly, some of us are coming out of the COVID crisis with more money than we went in with, Today Phil Dobbie talks to Jasmine Birtles from Money Magpie about what to do with spare cash that might be sitting idly in your bank account.
Also, you might be hearting about the sharp rise in government bond yields happening right now, and the debate about the potential for inflation from government money printing. Phil takes you through, step by step, what’s happening and why the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is right to be watering down the concerns.
Plus, how Mr Potato Head is being emasculated.
Thursday 25th February 2021
Sometime this year we’ll be piling onto aircraft and jetting off to the sunshine. Since the government announced the timetable out of lockdown bookings have skyrocketed, but will we be looking for different travelling experiences? Destination marketing expert Tom Buncle, from Yellow Railroad, joins Phil Dobbie to talk about the types of travellers operators should be targeting and the steps they need to take to secure their bookings. Also today, the Bank of England Governor speaks out against the EU’s attempts to bring all Euro clearing into the Eurozone at the expense of the city of London, and how the government is pushing on with freeports, with no clear idea of the economic benefits they will provide.
Wednesday 24th February 2021
Boris Johnson hosted the UN Security Council yesterday, where climate change was discussed as a threat to global security issue. Unsurprisingly, little was achieved, but at least it gave the US an opportunity to show that they are back at the table when it comes to climate talks. This just days after Texas was hit be severe storms, causing power outages and food and water shortages. Today energy economist Nick Butler joins Phil Dobbie to discuss what went wrong in Texas and how we can effectively tackle climate change. Energy pricing and innovation are key, but public policy will be a significant influence he says.
Also, today a review of the morning’s front pages, how the US Fed’s Jerome Powell has calmed the markets, why Elon Musk’s title as the worlds richest man has been short lived, and why Michael Bolton sings about trading platforms.
Tuersday 23rd February 2021
Boris Johnson has announced his caution plans for the UK economy to return to normal. By mid July it could all be over, unless, of course, it isn’t. Today we ask is he being too cautious or is this the only sensible way to progress. Either way, its going to take a long time.
We also look at the Supreme Court ruling on Uber drivers last week, that determined they were workers employed by Uber, not self-employed people simply using an app. Ben Wilmott, head of policy at CIPD, says the government needs to push ahead with clarifying the employment status of all people, but its complicated.
The role of central banks has become more complicated too. They have been happily buying up government bonds to keep the cost of borrowing down. Now bond yields are rising will they have to do even more to keep things under control.
And as Canada prepares to follow Australis down the road of charging Facebook for links to news sites, we hear from a former Aussie PM who says its the Murdoch press, not Facebook, that’s the real issue here.
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Monday 22nd February 2021
Unless you’ve been hiding in a bunker (as many of us have) you’ll be aware that Boris Johnson will be announcing the schedule for the easing of lockdown measures today. Phil Dobbie says most papers this morning already have it planned out, as the UK’s vaccine rollout programme continues at pace and ahead of schedule. He explains why Israel will be an interesting test case in the next few weeks – they have rolled out vaccines quickly too, but also opened up shops and schools immediately afterwards. Have they moved too soon? But there’s one western democracy where vaccines aren’t entirely welcome. Listen in for more. You’ll also hear property expert Russell Quirk’s views on house prices. He says they are going to rise this year, even though many other experts are forecasting a downturn. With interest rate slower for longer, and the potential for inflation when the economy eventually bounces back, isn’t increased housing demand inevitable?
Friday 19th February 2021
Unless we’re missing something, there’s not a lot of sense behind Keir Starmer’s plan to issue Recovery Bonds, to attract the savings money that some built up over the last year. We’ll examine why this lan could misfire and suggest an alternative. Plus, Paul Wallbank joins us from Australia to talk through the latest on Facebook’s blockade on news from down-under. And how not to hold a press conference. Listen to Ted Cruz’s explanation of why, when it got too cold I the state he is supposed to be running, he quickly fled to Mexico. He might have been better off saying nothing at all.
Isn’t the disruption caused by COVID-19 a chance to change things? The government has been bailing us out, delaying payments, giving tax holidays, increasing benefits. We’ve become very used to change, so isn’t this time for a wholesale review of Britain’s exhaustingly complex tax system. It’s not going to happen with this government, says FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf. In today’s “It’s The Business” podcast he talks to Phil Dobbie about the long term need to raise more tax revenue, and discusses some of the taxes we should consider.
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Wednesday 17th February 2021
There is hope in the air that we are on our way out of this wretched pandemic and on Monday we’ll hear from the Prime minister with his timetable for easing lockdowns. The hope is that as we emerge from our cocoons, we’ll start spending again. But the economy will be left with a festering sore that will take a long time to heal. Government assistance has been made available to help businesses make it through the dark times, but its been a little haphazard and there are no clear signs that the help will continue for much longer. In today’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks whether some of the schemes for small business should be available all the time, pandemic or otherwise. And Liz Barclay from Back in Business says what we desperately need from the government is a strategy for business, that gives confidence to investors and provides a surety of income for operators.
There’s no point in governments expecting to return to a balanced budget. It won’t happen. The debt built up this year will sit on their balance sheets for decades to come, until it is eventually ost through inflation. And that assume sits not added to by more debt in subsequent years. On today’s podcast Paul Cavanagh, COE of Petronus Partners, says the intellectual chord that links taxation and spending has been severed. So what happens next? Japan has coped with massive government debt for a decade or more, and yesterday showed it is bouncing back from COVID-19 better than most. Listen in for an insightful discussion about how the attitude to public borrowing is changing, mainly because it has to.
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Monday 15th February 2021
The newspapers this morning are filled with the expected timetable for easing lockdowns, that could see schools back in a few weeks, non-essential shops open by the end of March and pubs open by Easter. On today’s edition of It’s the Business Phil Dobbie asks Rodney Hobson which shares and sectors to focus on as the economy rebounds. Also, was Rishi Sunak correct when he said, on some measures, the UK economy has suffered less of a hit than Germany? Will the Republicans in the US have to toe the Trump line throughout this term of parliament. Clearly the acquittal reflected fears of a voter backlash. And two ends the UK government is struggling to tie-up, Brexit and hotel Quarantine. And bad poetry from the European Central Bank.
Friday 12th February 2021
Many of today’s biggest companies stemmed from major economic downturns, Microsoft amongst them. Phil Dobbie asks Jonathan Marchbank, an investor in early stage investors, whether we’ll see that this time. Maybe not immediately, because investors are keen to see innovators face to face before parting with cash, but there are changes to our way of life that provide opportunities for new business ideas. Also today, we look at Matt Hancock’s plans for the NHS and ask whether the chairman of KPMG being pushed aside was just a little too ‘woke’. And a look at Friday morning’s papers too.
Thursday 12th February 2021
The government aimed to build a bridge to see businesses through the worst of the crisis brought about by the pandemic. Craig Beaumont, from the Federation of Small Businesses, say, as it turns out, it was a very narrow bridge. That presumably means many have fallen off the sides, but on today’s podcast he talks to Phil Dobbie about how small business operators can see their way across, and the opportunities that lie on the other side. There’s also a look at the top stories in today’s papers, including how Amsterdam has overtaken the City for share trading volumes. And, a year ago, would you have even contemplated a day when the Prime Minister tells you that taking a holiday is illegal? How much longer will this go on for?
Wednesday 10th February 2021
We are just a few week’s away from the next budget and there’s been much speculation about how Rishi Sunak will cope with rising government debt. The gloomy picture he portrayed at the spending review last year has undoubtedly got worse with the current lockdown. Nobody expects he will cut spending or raise taxes straight away, but the Milton Friedman in him will want to reduce public debt as quickly as is practicable. Today Berenger’s Kallum Pickering joins Phil Dobbie to suggest that, in historic terms, public debt isn’t too bad. He says the evidence is the underlying economy is doing okay and once we lift lockdown we could see growth return quickly, but it would be too soon to dampen that with tax increases. Also today, Mat Hancock’s latest pronouncements puts UK tourism into the ICU ward.
Elon Musk has suddenly woken up to Bitcoin. He has put $1.5 billion of it on the Tesla balance sheet and will soon accept it as a payment from customers. But isn’t it a risk for a company, already highly valued given its low underlying earnings, to put so much into such a volatile asset. There’s nothing volatile about Bitcoin according to Max Keiser, an early Bitcoin advocate and investor. It will only increase in value whilst the ever-expanding supply of fiat money, the US dollar in particular, will see those currencies lose value. He makes the bold prediction that as Bitcoin gains momentum, the US dollar will lose 50 percent this year! Plus, performing artists are another Brexit casualty, and could Britain be swamped with the South African mutant strain of COVID-19, with a vaccine that does little to stop it?
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Monday 8th February 2021
Sorry if this seems like an unnecessary batch of negativity at the start of the week. First off, though, we look at the Superbowl in the US, with big advertisers pulling out. Then we look at Joe Biden’s attempts to push through his $1.9 trillion stimulus package, which is facing opposition because of concerns all this extra money will create inflation. But will it when so many people are out of work? And Jon Danzig joins us to talk about all that’s been going wrong with Brexit. Businesses are finding the barriers to trade with their most important customers and suppliers are now creating headaches for them. So, what can be done about it. Listen in to find out if there’s an answer.
The earth is round is the opening line of a $2.7 billion lawsuit against Fox News launched by Smartmatic over false claims of voter fraud in the US election. The Murdoch media is having a better time of it in Australia where the government has taken his side against Facebook and Google, insisted major publishers get paid for links from online media. Paul Wallbank joins Phil Dobbie to describe the events that could see Google pulling search out of Australia. Plus, Bank of England Andrew Bailey described a mixed outlook for the UK economy yesterday. The only thing we could be clear on was that he needs to get a better internet connection.
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Friday 4th February 2021
Assuming he can get the support of the Italian parliament, Mario Draghi is to become the country’s latest Prime Minister. How long will he last? Phil Dobbie talks to economist Steve Keen about the problems he faces, not least is managing debt in contravention of the Maastricht treaty. Also today, vaccine hopes for the UK as Chris Witty says the worst of the latest wave is over, fuelling more division in the Tory party about when schools should return and lockdown restrictions lifted. Bigger news perhaps, is the acceptance of the Sputnik-V vaccine as a genuine contributor to the pandemic solution.
Jezz Bezos has announced he is stepping down as CEO of Amazon, the company he founded 27 years ago, just after another bumper quarter of sales. Also on today’s podcast Phil Dobbie looks at the troubles brewing with the northern Ireland protocol. Meanwhile, whilst the UK has taken control of its border against the EU, supposedly, another border is being opened up. Since the weekend British Nationals living in Hong Kong have the right to apply to live in the UK, with a route to permanent settlement. Harjap Bhangal suggests the stumbling block will be the reluctance of some, himself included, to advertise their services in Hong Kong, fearing the response from the Chinese government.
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The share market on both sides of the Atlantic returned to normal yesterday, whatever normal is. Phil Dobbie asks shares expert Rodney Hobson whether there was anything to learn from the Redditt escapades of the last week, and whether the markets will ever be the same again? And, with the newspapers this morning leading on the race to prevent further spread of the South African strain of the virus, doesn’t this demonstrate the need to vaccinate the planet, not just those countries who can afford it? And could Richard Branson have the answer for those wanting to escape COVID-19?
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In this first edition of It’s the Business Phil Dobbie talks to property expert Russell Quirk ahead of today’s hearing on extending the Stamp Duty Holiday. Should it be done, if so how, and should it ever have been introduced in the first place? There’s also an explanation of how Redditt warriors have been using people power to control the excesses of Wall Street, and why Germany in particular is so upset about the slow vaccine rollout in Europe.
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