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Last week’s OCR cut received a lot of attention, and rightly so. It was the first since 2020, and it marked the end of 15 months at 5.50 per cent, the highest since 2008. That sparked the biggest two-day rally in New Zealand shares for two years, and the beginning of the easing cycle has seen the market rebound more than ten per cent from the lows of recent months. Is this optimism justified, will it last, and how have shares, bonds and property performed in the past following interest rate cuts?
Last week was a very good one for local investors. The NZX 50 enjoyed its seventh positive week out of the last eight, rising 4.0%, the strongest weekly gain in more than four years. The index is up 10.4% from its recent lows, and at its highest level since January 2022. In the days ahead, markets will be kept busy with a busy week of corporate results, as the likes of a2 Milk, Freightways, Fletcher Building, Auckland Airport and Port of Tauranga all report earnings.
The local reporting season ramps up next week, putting many of our largest listed corporates under the microscope. It’s started more slowly than usual, with only a handful of releases so far and most businesses choosing to schedule earnings announcements for the last two weeks of August. We’ve seen a rebound in the sharemarket over the last few months, with the NZX 50 index rising more than six per cent from its recent lows and July the strongest month since April 2020. So what should we expect from the reporting season, and what will it teach us about the state of corporate New Zealand?
It's a huge week here in New Zealand, with one of the most eagerly anticipated Reserve Bank decisions in recent memory due on Wednesday afternoon. The international highlights will include the July CPI report in the US, as well as retail sales for the same period. Investors will also be watching monthly activity indicators in China and a raft of economic releases in the UK. The New Zealand reporting season will start slowly with Skellerup the only company of note set to report earnings. However, it'll be very busy across the Tasman with results from the likes of CSL, Goodman Group, Telstra and Amcor. International earnings highlights will include Walmart and Home Depot in the US, as well as Tencent and Alibaba in China.
It's been a rough start to August for financial markets, with US shares suffering the biggest decline in almost two years on Monday. A sharp bout of risk aversion has hit, with bond yields lower, growth assets selling off aggressively and volatility measures surging. The Japanese sharemarket has fallen 20 per cent in just three days, something we haven't seen in data going back to 1949. The S&P 500 in the US is down 8.5 per cent from its peak three weeks ago, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen 13.1 per cent. Interest rates are down sharply amidst the nervousness, which has seen bonds and fixed income rise solidly amidst the turmoil in other asset classes. Let's recap what's driving the volatility and offer some tips for investors wondering what to do.
The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week. However, it left financial markets in no doubt that a cut is imminent, with Chair Jerome Powell noting one might be on the table at the next meeting in September. Inflation is headed toward its target, and cracks are appearing across the economy. A recession isn’t upon us, but the risks of one might be increasing. So will September prove too late, and did the Fed just make a mistake by not cutting last week?
What a week! The S&P 500 fell another 2.1% last week after a surprise jump in the US unemployment rate raised the prospect of a sharper economic slowdown, or even recession. The index is down 5.7% from its mid-July peak, with high-flying sectors feeling the brunt of the selling. Technology is down 12.8%, while consumer discretionary (of which Amazon is the biggest constituent) has slipped 10.1% and communication services (where Meta and Alphabet reside) is 8.7% lower. US interest rates fell sharply, with the two-year Treasury yield falling from 4.4% to 3.9% and the 10-year yield declining from 4.2% to 3.8%. Friday saw the biggest daily decline in yields almost nine months, and the 10-year is at its lowest in more than a year.
August is "Money Month", an annual public awareness campaign run by Te Ara Ahunga Ora. Also known as the Retirement Commission, Te Ara Ahunga Ora is the government-funded organisation behind the Sorted website, a great resource dedicated to helping New Zealanders get ahead financially. Money Month is about encouraging people to talk more openly about money, to help us all improve our financial wellbeing. There are plenty of examples of great money advice, but we'll try and boil it down to three key simple rules for financial success.
It’s been a pivotal month in US politics, with plenty of action since that infamous June debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden has stepped aside and current Vice President Kamala Harris is all but assured as the Democratic nominee. How might this impact the likely outcome, and what should investors be thinking about as we head toward November?
Another eventful week looms, with all eyes on monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. Key economic releases will include the ISM index and jobs report in the US, as well as PMIs in China. On the earnings front, big tech will be in the spotlight with Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon all scheduled to report. On the local front, the ANZ Business Outlook survey will be a highlight as markets look ahead to the August RBNZ meeting.
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will soon be headed lower, and this will have important implications for savers, borrowers and investors. Financial markets have taken a bolder view than most economists, and they now see at least two (but possibly three) 0.25 per cent cuts before the end of the year. A move in October or November seems assured, while there’s half a chance the Reserve Bank might take a more proactive approach and cut the OCR next month. Whether it happens in three weeks or three months, the upshot is that the monetary policy landscape is about to change markedly. That means many investors might need to rethink their strategy, or at least run the ruler over their current approach to ensure it's positioned for a new market dynamic.
It's been a busy couple of weeks! The S&P 500 fell 2.0% last week as investors rotated out of the high-flying sectors and into some of the laggards which look better value. The S&P 500 Equal Weight index has performed much better, while the Russell 2000 (comprised of smaller companies) is up 7.8% over the past two weeks. Here at home, the local NZX 50 increased another 1.6% last week, which sees it at the highest level in more than two years and headed for the strongest monthly gain since November last year! Looking ahead, global flash PMIs for July will the key releases to monitor, while investors will also be watching second quarter GDP and the latest PCE inflation report in the US. The international earnings season continues, with almost 140 S&P 500 countries due to report including Alphabet (Google), Coca Cola, LVMH, Tesla, Republic Services, Unilever and 3M.
The latest quarterly inflation figures are out this week. These will be closely watched, in particular the domestic inflation that has worried the Reserve Bank so much in recent years. With that in mind, this popular episode from May will give you a refresher on exactly how our inflation basket is composed, why domestic inflation has been so troublesome, and the challenges of reducing it without an unwanted spike in unemployment.
This was a popular episode from earlier in the year, and the messages are timeless to take a listen if you missed it the first time around! If you buy a share listed outside New Zealand, it’s not just changes in the share price that will determine your return. You also need to keep an eye on the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the currency in question. Holding a portion of your wealth outside our shores is crucial, and we shouldn’t let the prospect of currency movements dissuade us from taking opportunities in other markets. Here's everything you need to know about currencies and share investing!
This week’s global economic highlight will be the US inflation report, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify to Congress on Tuesday and on Wednesday. Markets see a 77% chance of the Fed cutting rates in September, with a cut fully priced by November. Politics will also remain in focus after last week's UK election, with investors monitoring the outcome second round of legislative elections in France early in the week. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank will be in the spotlight on Wednesday afternoon. While no change in policy settings is expected, markets will be watching for any change in tone after some weak economic indicators and signs future inflation is headed lower. There'll be plenty to watch on the corporate front too, with the international quarterly corporate reporting season kicking off too. As usual, some of the US financial heavyweights will be first to announce results.
The first six months of the year is behind us, so let's take a look at the best and worst performers, before turning to the rest of the year. The second half of 2024 is set to be action packed, and there's plenty for investors to monitor. Politics, inflation and interest rates will be in focus, so how should investors be positioned and what do we need to keep an eye on?
Politics will be in the spotlight with the first round of French legislative elections on Sunday, then the UK general election on Thursday. In the US, investors will be watching the latest ISM manufacturing and services indices on Monday and Wednesday, before the all-important jobs report on Friday. It'll be a holiday-shortened week with the Independence Day holiday on Friday, and markets will be also monitoring fallout from the first election debate last week. It was a poor showing from President Joe Biden, prompting speculation he should step aside. Here in New Zealand, Tuesday's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion for the June 2024 quarter is likely to provide further evidence of a weakening economy and falling inflation pressures, ahead of next week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision.
US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s something we can learn from that as investors. There’s nothing wrong with being mindful of risks and let’s be honest, at any given time the list of concerning issues is a lengthy one. However, when it comes to investing being an optimist pays off.
Inflation will be in the spotlight this week, with the PCE report for May due in the US as well as flash CPIs in several European economies and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from the June meeting is out, while the European Central Bank will release its latest consumer expectations survey and there is also a monetary policy decision from Sweden's Riksbank. There's plenty to watch on the political front, including the first presidential debate of 2024 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday evening in the US. There will also be a European Leaders summit on Thursday and Friday, while France will go to the polls on Sunday June 30 for the first round of voting, before runoffs a week later. In New Zealand, it will be a holiday-shortened week with the ANZ Business Outlook survey for June likely to be a highlight on Thursday. On the corporate front, there are several annual meetings that local investors will be watching for updates on current conditions, while Fedex and Nike are reporting in the US.
We're five months out from the US presidential election and the campaign is set to heat up next week. Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of 2024 on the evening of June 27. While it breaks with tradition for the first debate to be so early in the piece, there's hardly anything normal about this election. Biden should be in pole position, at least according to history, but he’s not and the clock is ticking. There’s still a long way to go, but for now sit back and enjoy the first debate in what is sure to be an intriguing election campaign.
The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.6% and hit new highs last week, as investors were encouraged by a softer than expected May inflation report. In contrast, European shares fell 2.8% in the wake of fresh political uncertainty. Elsewhere, the Australian ASX 200 fell 1.7% and the FTSE 100 in the UK was 1.2% lower. Japanese and emerging markets were little moved, as was the local NZX 50. Looking ahead, retail sales are out in the US this week, while China will release monthly activity indicators on Monday afternoon. Global flash PMIs for June are due on Friday, and central bank decisions loom in Australia and the UK. Here in New Zealand, a housing market report is out on Monday, while later in the week we'll get the results of the latest dairy auction and the March 2024 quarter GDP report.
There’s been a raft of bad news from locally listed companies over the past several weeks, with more than a dozen either downgrading earnings guidance or providing negative trading updates. This hasn’t been limited to the smaller end of town either, with at least ten NZX 50 constituents in the headlines for the wrong reasons too. When it comes to inflation and interest rates, bad news can be good news, to an extent. Slumping activity and a worsening labour market might could see inflation slow more quickly than expected. This might open the door to OCR cuts within six months, rather than sometime in 2025, which would put the local market on a sounder footing.
This week will be an eventful one in the US, with the June Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the May consumer price index report. In the UK we'll get monthly GDP and some fresh labour market indicators ahead of the Bank of England meeting next week, while the Bank of Japan will release its latest monetary policy decision on Friday. It'll be a holiday-shortened week across the Tasman, and the highlights will be the NAB business survey (Tuesday) and the labour force report (Thursday), both covering the month of May. The Queensland Budget is also out this week, which will include a debt issuance update that will interest financial markets. There'll be plenty to keep an eye on locally too, with the ANZ truckometer, migration, electronic card transactions and selected price indices for May. The latest monthly Real Estate Institute housing market report is also out this week.
We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora of challenges to build very successful businesses. When the time comes to think beyond the farm, investing in a portfolio dominated by shares, listed property, private equity and fixed income doesn’t always come naturally. Having less control and influence is a mental hurdle for some, while diversifying far and wide can also be a new concept. However, farmers that can get their head around these differences often become very astute investors. As we gear up for Fieldays this year, let me share a few reasons why.
Global politics are in the spotlight this week, with a presidential election in Mexico, elections for the European parliament to be held on June 6-9, and India's six-week long national election in its final phase. In the US, all eyes will be on Friday's jobs report in the lead up to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, while the latest ISM indices will also be in focus. In Europe, the key event will be the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on Thursday, where we might see the first rate cut of this cycle. Across the Tasman, the highlight will be gross domestic product (GDP) for the March 2024 quarter, while it is a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand.
The Reserve Bank left the Official Cash Rate unchanged last week, and it's forecast track suggests there will be no respite for borrowers until next year, even though the economy is slowing more than expected, unemployment is rising more quickly and inflation has fallen to the lowest level in three years. The headline consumer price index increased at an annual rate of four per cent in the 12 months to the end of March, and the Reserve Bank expects it to end the year at 2.9 per cent. However, this encouraging outlook is tempered by the fact that most of the decline has been driven by falling international (or tradables) prices. In contrast, domestic or non-tradables inflation, is still too high to provide any relief. What is causing this high domestic inflation, and what needs to happen for it to fall?
Inflation indicators across some of the major regions will be in focus this week, with PCE inflation due in the US, as well as preliminary measures in Europe and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. Locally, Budget 2024 will take centre stage on Thursday afternoon, and we'll also get some fresh business confidence figures for May. There's plenty happening on the corporate front too, as the reporting season heats up on the NZX. This week we'll see the latest earnings releases from the likes of Ryman Healthcare, Serko, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Mainfreight. Fonterra is scheduled to provide a business update, which should include an opening milk price forecast for the upcoming 2024/25 season.
There are many sayings in the investment world, and one that always comes up at this time of year is “sell in May and go away”. The adage emerged in the Northern Hemisphere and it suggests investors should sell their shares in May, relax and enjoy the summer months before returning to the market in the autumn (or spring, here in New Zealand). It's based on a suggestion the six months from November to April typically offers higher returns than the May to October period. There’s some truth in this, if we look at seasonal patterns over the years, so will selling in May be a good move for investors in 2024?
There's plenty for investors to keep an eye on in the week ahead, with some of the key releases likely to be the flash PMIs for some of the major economies. Markets will also be monitoring the minutes from the most recent Fed and Reserve Bank of Australia meetings, as well as inflation prints in the UK and Japan. Share investors will also be highly attuned to the latest earnings release from NVIDIA (its share prices is up 87% this year, following a gain of 239% in 2023!). Locally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday afternoon, while there are numerous company results due throughout the week.
We’re starting to see an increasing divergence in the outlook for growth, inflation and the likely next move from many of the world’s central banks. Some are on track to cut policy interest rates as expected, such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE). Others, like the US Federal Reserve and our own Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), are grappling with stubbornly high inflation that has delayed any plans for policy easing. What does this mean for the New Zealand economy, and the outlook for interest rates?
The S&P 500 in the US was up 1.9% last week, while the UK and Europe were stronger still, rising 2.7% and 3.2% respectively. In contrast, it was a tough week for the local market. The NZX 50 fell 1.5% in the wake of a string of recent profit warnings and poor trading updates from the likes of Air New Zealand, Spark, Tourism Holdings and The Warehouse. In the US, the latest CPI and retail sales reports will be in focus on Wednesday, while monthly activity indicators are due in China and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Tuesday. Here in New Zealand, the latest RBNZ survey of expectations and a housing market report will be of interest.
Some women are apprehensive about investing, but there’s plenty of evidence they’re better at it than their male counterparts. There have been several studies conducted over the years, and many of these have shown that on average, women often achieve better investment returns than men. Women are more likely to follow tried and tested investing principles, while men often think they know better. Studies also show women trade a lot less, are more willing to stick to a long-term plan and are much more open to seeking advice. In contrast, men tend to overestimate their abilities, while they believe their more frequent trading will make them money (more often than not, all it does is cost them more in fees). Women are less likely to persevere with a losing position too long, and they don't tend to hold such concentrated portfolios. Women don’t have the monopoly on all these attributes, and there are plenty of sensible, level-headed male investors too. However, when considering these statistics it's surprising there aren't more women working in financial services!
It was the second good week in a row for global sharemarkets, with many continuing to rebound from the weakness we saw in April. Markets still see interest rate cuts on the horizon, with some comforting Federal Reserve comments and a softer jobs report adding to hopes last week. This week, the US consumer will be in focus as the University of Michigan consumer survey is due for release. We'll also get the latest Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on credit conditions, while monetary policy decisions are due in Australia and the UK. The US quarterly reporting season is about 80% complete, but some of the highlights this week will include BP, Disney, Ferrari, FMC Corporation and Nintendo. In New Zealand and Australia, earnings releases will be forthcoming from Infratil, Westpac and ANZ Bank.
If you buy a share or exchange traded fund (ETF) listed outside New Zealand, it’s not just changes in the share price that will determine your return. You also need to keep an eye on the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the currency in question. While currency moves don’t have a significant bearing on long-term returns and at times they can help reduce volatility, over shorter periods they can have quite a big impact. Many local investors are happy to take on some currency risk, and the best way to think about this is to consider it an insurance policy against our small, vulnerable economy. However, if that worries you or if you dislike the idea of something else to try and predict, there are ways to mitigate the impact of potential changes. Holding a portion of your wealth outside our shores is crucial for New Zealand investors, and we shouldn’t let the prospect of currency movements dissuade us from taking opportunities in other markets.
After an April sell-off saw the US market fall 5.5% from its all time, the S&P 500 rebounded 2.7% last week, its best performance in almost six months. This came despite another hotter than expected inflation report, with the headline PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) increasing at an annual rate of 2.7%. Solid earnings releases drove the gains, and with 46% of the market having reported 80% of companies have beaten expectations. Most other sharemarkets followed suit, with the FTSE 100 in the UK rising 3.1% to a fresh highs and emerging market shares gaining 3.7%. This coming week is a very busy one, with some major US economic releases due as well as a Federal Reserve meeting. There's plenty happening locally too, with the ANZ Business Outlook survey for April due on Tuesday and the labour force report for the March 2024 quarter out on Wednesday. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.3%, the highest in three years and well above multi-decade low of 3.2% from early 2022. Last but not least, there will be more international earnings releases to monitor across the world, with 175 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results.
Markets were volatile last week, with another stronger than expected inflation report in the US rattling investors and pushing out hope for interest rate cuts. Wednesday's release of our own consumer price index for the March 2024 quarter will be the key event here in New Zealand, with markets hopeful this will be fall further and open the door to Official Cash Rate cuts later in the year. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve speakers will be closely watched to see recent developments have changed their view, while the quarterly international reporting season heats up. More than 40 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results in the days ahead, with some of the highlights likely to be Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHeatlh, ASML, LVMH, Netflix, TSMC and Procter & Gamble.
Several sharemarkets hit new highs during the first few months of this year, but the most significant milestone of all came in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 index finally retook the level it reached 34 years ago in 1989. After a stellar performance in 2023 which saw the Nikkei surge 28.2 per cent, even outpacing the mighty S&P 500, Japanese shares rose another 20.6 per cent in the first three months of this year and stormed through those previous highs. The rally hasn’t been because of a weaker yen and massive stimulus alone. We’ve seen a notable increase in governance standards, while valuations also look reasonable even after the gains of the past 18 months. Perhaps most importantly of all, Japan is finding its way back onto the radar of investors. After being ignored for decades, these recent positive developments might see Japanese shares increasingly included in portfolios as a diversification opportunity following big moves in US shares.
The highlight of the coming week will be the consumer price index report in the US, after two months of stronger-than-expected figures. The odds of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen from almost 90% to about 50/50 in recent weeks. The European Central Bank will release a monetary policy decision on Thursday and while no change is expected, markets will be looking for clues that a rate cut is imminent. In contrast to the US, recent inflation readings in Europe have come in below forecasts. The local highlight will be the monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday afternoon. No change is expected, but the tone and language will be closely monitored. Last but not least, the first quarter international reporting season beings and we’ll hear from some of the US financial heavyweights first up. Blackrock, Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are all announcing earnings on Friday in what is shaping up as a pivotal earnings season for the high-flying US market.
This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would’ve expected. World shares rose 7.8 per cent and as was the case in 2023, the US and Japan led the charge. New Zealand assets lagged, with the NZX 50 sharemarket index rising 2.8 per cent and corporate bonds posting a marginal gain. As was the case in 2023, well-diversified investors with a global mindset have been handsomely rewarded. Central banks will remain a focal point in the months ahead, with interest rate cuts on the horizon but the timing difficult to pick. Another important test for financial markets could be the US corporate reporting season, which starts next week, with the bar higher on the back of recent share price gains.
It'll be another holiday-shortened week, with markets closed on Monday in New Zealand, Australia and the UK (while the US market will open as normal on Monday). The highlight will be the March jobs report in the US, while the latest ISM indices are also due (on Monday and Wednesday). If the flash PMIs for the same period are anything to go by, we might see an improvement across the manufacturing sector this month. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be giving a speech at Stanford on Wednesday, with expectations for a June rate cut still sitting at around 70%. Last week Powell noted said "we can be careful about this decision with the labour market and economy strong", noting that "we don't need to be in a hurry to cut", so this speech will be closely monitored for further comments. Here in New Zealand, with the results of another dairy auction and the latest building permits the only releases of note. Markets are looking ahead to next week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, with an Official Cash Rate cut in August now fully priced.
If you hold some of your investments in a trust, your tax rate is going up next week. You might need to rethink the types of assets you own and the investment vehicles you choose, to ensure you’re not paying more tax than you need to. But beware, the impost might not be the showstopper some are suggesting it will be, and it doesn’t always make sense to build an investment strategy around tax minimisation. Fine-tuning could be the order of the day, rather than a dramatic recalibration of your approach. Whether you’ve got a trust or not, it’s an opportune time take a closer look at how your affairs are structured, just don’t let tax considerations alone drive your investment decisions.
It was a very strong week for sharemarkets in most regions, with confidence interest rate cuts are just around the corner growing and financial markets responding positively. The Swiss National Bank cut its policy interest rate on Thursday, becoming the first central bank with a G10 currency to do so. This followed the Federal Reserve's unchanged guidance for three rate cuts in 2024 (despite some stronger inflation figures of late), and the first Bank of England decision since 2021 where no members voted for a hike. Financial markets now expect the easing cycle to start in the US, UK and Europe in June, and for Australia and New Zealand to both follow in August. The final week of the March quarter will be a holiday-shortened one, with many of the major markets closed for Good Friday. US inflation will be in focus again, with the February PCE index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) due on Friday. In New Zealand, the latest ANZ Business Outlook is due, while we'll also get the Budget Policy Statement, ahead of the May Budget.
Short-term deposits are offering great value to investors right now, but don’t get content. Within the next six months interest rates could start falling, and after the first cut they’re likely to keep going lower. If that happens, investors will be facing much less attractive reinvestment rates and a declining income stream. Rather than waiting for the herd to catch on, savvy investors should take advantage of this opportunity and make hay while the sun is still shining.
Central banks will be in the spotlight this week, with monetary policy decisions due in Japan and Australia on Tuesday, then in the US and UK on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. All eyes will be on the Fed following last week's hotter than expected inflation figures, with investors likely to focus on the latest projections and the dot plot, which will show where Fed officials see interest rates going over the coming years. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision on Tuesday will also be eagerly anticipated, especially after Japan's biggest union reported much stronger wage negotiations on Friday. Here in New Zealand, we'll get the gross domestic product (GDP) report for the December 2023 quarter, which could have an impact on where the Official Cash Rate is headed and when. Buckle up!
Property investors are set to benefit from changes to interest deductibility rules, which will kick in at the end of this month. The Government is reversing changes that were implemented under the previous regime, which meant interest costs could no longer be considered an expense come tax return time. What might that mean for prospective investors, and with less headwinds will the housing market take off again?
The highlight of the coming week will be the US consumer price index on Tuesday. After a hotter than expected release in January, markets will be watching for any further upside surprises or signs price pressures are more persistent than hoped. This will be the last major release ahead of next week's Fed meeting, as markets get increasingly confident the first rate cut of this cycle will come within the next three months. Locally, we'll be watching the ANZ truckometer and electronic card transactions on Tuesday, as well as the latest migration figures and the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) housing market report for February.
The local reporting season wrapped up last week and while it wasn’t terrible, we saw a lacklustre set of releases and company updates. Many of our listed companies are still doing it tough against the backdrop of a sluggish economy, high interest rates and waning consumer demand. Which companies fared worst and why, were there any brights spot, and what does this tell about the economy and the investment outlook?
Last week was another good one for global sharemarkets, with further highs for indices in the US and Japan, and solid performances elsewhere too. The key event was the Reserve Bank decision here in New Zealand, where the Official Cash Rate was left unchanged and forecasts suggested the next move will be down. Looking ahead, the key economic release will be the US monthly jobs report on Friday, which is the last ahead of the March Federal Reserve meeting. Speaking of the Fed, Chair Jerome Powell will be in focus on Wednesday and Thursday when he testifies to the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee respectively. It’s also a big week on the political front, with ‘Super Tuesday’ as well as the State of the Union address from President Biden.
As we look ahead to the US presidential election in November, many will be pondering how this might influence the investment outlook. The election is eight months away, but March is an important month on the US political calendar. Next week Super Tuesday should tell us what we already know - that we’re headed for a Biden vs Trump contest, the first since presidential rematch 1956. Two days after that, President Biden will give his State of the Union address. What does history tell us about how the sharemarket performs during election years, and how should investors approach this important event?
The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.7% last week, closing at a new record high partly on the back of another very strong result from NVIDIA. The chipmaker and key AI exposure rose another 8.5% last week, which sees it up 59.2% so far this year (following a 238.9% gain in 2023). European and Japanese shares were also strong, both rising 1.4% as indices in both regions hit fresh peaks. The Nikkei 225 in Japan finally surpassed it’s 1989 highs after 34 years, while the European Stoxx 600 exceeded its previous peak from January 2022. Hear more about of these moves, as well as what the Reserve Bank might do on Wednesday afternoon.
Some investors baulk when they see a high share price, but they shouldn’t. A company’s share price tells us absolutely nothing about whether it’s expensive or cheap and if anything, it can often be a sign of a strong track record. Don’t be put off by high share prices, or the illusion of value that can come from a low price. Dig a little deeper and consider each investment on its merits. Some of the best opportunities are the ones that might look the most expensive (on the face of it).
Monetary policy will remain in focus this week, with the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting due for release as well as the ECB's account of its January meeting. Flash PMIs are out on Thursday in most of the major economies, and these will provide useful insights into how economic activity is tracking this year. Locally, retail sales will be a highlight on Friday, while we'll see the results of the latest dairy auction midweek. The earnings season gets going on the NZX this week, with a plethora of companies due to announce results including Freightways, a2 Milk, EBOS Group, Auckland Airport, Scales and Port of Tauranga. The international reporting season is winding down, although all eyes will be on NVIDIA on Wednesday, while results from Air Liquide, Home Depot, Walmart and Nestle are also due.
The US market has had a stunning run over the past year or so. The S&P 500 index peaked in January 2022, before declining 25.4 per cent over the following nine months in the wake of rapidly increasing interest rates. Since those October 2022 lows, the market has rebounded 40.5 per cent. In recent weeks it’s surpassed the peak from two years ago, moving past 5000 points for the first time. Against that backdrop, is it too late to invest in US stocks?
What a week! We saw the S&P 500 sharemarket index in the US rise another 1.4%, closing at a fresh record high and pushing through 5000 points for the first time. There was also plenty of action in New Zealand, as wholesale interest rates rose to a three-month high on the back of strong economic indicators and a bold OCR call from the ANZ economics team. The Reserve Bank will be in focus this week, while the international reporting season continues and some local companies will get in on the earnings action.
Bitcoin took a big step forward last month, with the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US finally giving approval for exchange traded funds to begin trading on the sharemarket. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) quickly emerged as one of the favourites, passing US$1 billion in investor inflows within just five days. This trend could well continue, and there could be a large pool of new money that’ll flow into these funds. For some looking to dip their toes into the world of crypto investing, ETFs could hold more appeal than previous options. Our advice would be to remember the usual investment guidelines and if you do choose to get involved, keep allocations small and don’t go overboard.
The S&P 500 in the US rose another 1.4% last week, closing at fresh highs on the back of impressive earnings releases (including a very strong one from Meta) and robust economic indicators. The US market has started the new year where it left off in 2023, having gained 4.0% barely a month into 2024. Other sharemarkets performed well, with the Australian ASX 200 posting a very strong gain of 1.9% and also finishing last week at a new record high, while the local market was solid with the NZX 50 index rising 0.5%. It'll be another holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand with Waitangi Day on Tuesday, which will make for a quieter market. We'll get the latest global dairy trade auction results early on Wednesday, and later that day the labour force report for the December quarter is due. The international earning season will continue, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results. Some of the highlights across the world are likely to include Caterpillar, McDonald's, Eli Lilly, Alibaba, Costco, CVS Health, Disney, PayPal and Unilever.
It’s starting to look like the US Federal Reserve might’ve done the impossible (or at least the very rare) and achieved a soft landing. If that’s the case, there’s no need for these high interest rates to overstay their welcome and cause an unnecessary recession. For investors, this would make for a much more attractive backdrop. It could mean markets perform better than many expect from here, and that the long-awaited collapse in prices some have been calling for might not come. If that’s the case, those patiently waiting for that lucrative buying opportunity to emerge might find themselves left behind. It might be time to acknowledge what could go right, just in case the Fed’s done the unlikely and pulled this off.
Last week was a very good one for world sharemarkets. The S&P 500 in the US posted a 1.1% gain, having hit a new record high this month as inflation and economic indicators added to confidence a soft landing can be achieved. European shares surged 3.2% last week, the UK market rose 2.3%, and the Australian ASX 200 posted a 1.8% gain. The local market also had its best week since early November, with the NZX 50 gaining 1.8%. Looking ahead, this coming week is shaping up as a very busy one. In the US, the highlight will be the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year, while on the data front we'll get the latest ISM manufacturing index and the monthly jobs report. Here in New Zealand, the highlight of the week will be the ANZ Business Outlook survey for January. Markets will also be watching Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway’s speech on Tuesday morning, to get an update on how the central bank views some of the recent data. It'll be another busy week of earnings releases- too, with 75 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results. Big tech will be in focus, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Meta all due to report.
Short-term deposits are offering great value right now, but don’t get too content. Within six months interest rates could be headed lower, and after the first cut they’re likely to keep falling. If that happens, investors will be facing much less attractive reinvestment rates and a rapidly declining income stream. By the second half of this year, money could be moving back toward other assets amidst falling deposit rates. Rather than waiting for the herd to catch on, savvy investors might want to think about adjusting their strategy sooner rather than later.
This is our final New Year encore episode before we're back into the swing of things next week, and this one was a personal favourite of ours! Between 1900 and today, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That means an investor has, on average, doubled their money every 7.4 years. That’s a recipe for wealth generation, and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been three per cent per annum over that entire period) and your purchasing power is maintained. However, what’s equally interesting is to consider the typical return in any given calendar year. We did that, and the results surprised us!
Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is a very common question, but it’s especially relevant today. Mortgage rates are at 15-year highs, with borrowing costs at levels many homeowners won’t have experienced before. Paying down the mortgage as quickly as you can is sensible, and it’ll set you on the path to financial freedom. However, it’s not black or white and using some of that spare money to invest along the way will also pay off.
When is a five per cent return no return at all? The answer depends on the inflation rate, and if you're keeping pace with the cost of living. In this encore episode from April 2023, we'll explain the difference between nominal returns and real returns, why investors need to be mindful of the difference, and how we need to invest to ensure we grow their capital over the long term.
Welcome back to On Point in 2024. In our first new episode of the year, we'll ponder some of the key questions investors are asking themselves at the moment. Will interest rates finally start to fall, can the housing market rebound continue, and how will sharemarkets both here and offshore perform in 2024? Let's discuss and debate some of the potential answers.
If you’re lucky enough to have a bit of surplus cash at the moment, it’s a difficult time to think about putting it to work. You want your hard-earned capital to work productively, but it’s scary to think about venturing into financial markets (or any asset class, for that matter) with your savings. Jumping in boots and all could be unwise, while sitting back and waiting for perfect conditions to emerge can also backfire. In this popular episode from 2023, we discussed some of these challenges and talk about strategies investors can use to get invested. If you missed it the first time, take a listen!
This was a popular episode from 2023, and its messages are still very relevant for newer investors, as well as those with more experience. Take a listen if you missed it the first time around, or simply remind yourself of these timeless investing concepts! One of our least favourite sharemarket analogies is when it’s said to be just like a casino. While some traders might treat their portfolio like a sports betting account, for genuine investors this comparison couldn’t be further from the truth. You might get lucky a few times at the casino, but the more you play the greater your chances of losing. In contrast, when it comes to investing in the sharemarket, the longer you stay the better your odds of success.
2023 is done and dusted, and while it was challenging at times, as well as eventful, it ultimately proved to be a very lucrative year for investors. Some of the key stories included faster than expected declines in inflation, an interest rate rollercoaster, and the emergence of AI as a prevalent market theme. Join us to reflect on all of this and more in this episode that details asset class returns and recaps some of the biggest market events of the last year.
Markets are set to end the year on a high note. The S&P 500 in the US has rallied 22.9% this year and is within 2% of its record high from January 2022, while the local NZX 50 has increased for seven consecutive weeks, its longest winning streak since 2019. Interest rates fell sharply last week, buoyed by signs central banks are done and could be cutting interest rates within six months. In our final "The Week Ahead" episode for 2023, we'll discuss all of these things as well as what to watch in the coming days to keep your finger on the market pulse!
We’re on the home stretch, and 2023 has been a surprisingly good year for investors. Conservative assets have returned to form with a five per cent gain, while world shares have also been strong, returning almost 20 per cent, which is well above the long-term average. In contrast, the local sharemarket has been a notable laggard, with the NZX 50 flat with just two weeks to go. Looking ahead to 2024, there are some obvious positives, such as the prospect of further declines in inflation and potentially interest rate cuts. How might financial markets perform in the year ahead, are we out of the recessionary woods, and what should investors be thinking about for their portfolios?
Last week was another good one for investors, with shares and fixed income rising further. The S&P 500 in the US posted a 0.2% gain, finishing at its highest level since March 2022, while the local NZX 50 rose 1.1%. Not only was that the sixth consecutive weekly gain (the longest winning streak in more than a year), but it saw the index move back into marginal positive territory on a year-to-date basis. The coming week is a very busy one, as the end of the calendar year looms. Central banks will be in the spotlight, with monetary policy decisions due from the Federal Reserve in the US, as well as the Bank of England, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. Global growth will also be in focus, with December flash purchasing managers' indices out on Friday, as well as monthly economic indicators in China. September quarter gross domestic product figures out on here in New Zealand, while we should also get a housing market update from the Real Estate Institute.
November lived up to its name as a very good month for investors. World shares were up 9.3 per cent, the best return in three years. The S&P 500 in the US rallied 8.9 per cent and the local NZX 50 posted an impressive 5.3 per cent increase, the biggest monthly gains for both indices since July 2022. It wasn't just shares that had a great month, with conservative assets getting in on the action too. US bonds had their best month since 1985 (with a 4.5 per cent rise), while the NZX Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index posted a 2.7 per cent increase, the strongest since the index came into being in 2001. Why was November such a strong month, and what might determine whether this strength continues through to the end of the year?
November lived up to its name as a very good month for sharemarkets around the world, with the S&P 500 rallying 8.9% and the NZX 50 posting an impressive 5.3% increase. Those were the best monthly gains for both indices since July 2022. It wasn't just shares that had a great month in November, with US bonds posting the best monthly performance since May 1985 (+4.5%) and New Zealand corporate bonds enjoying their strongest monthly gain in at least 20 years. Let's talk about all of that, as well as last week's bombshell OCR forecast from the Reserve Bank, and the key events that we expect to shape the coming week across financial markets.
Shares have delivered impressive long-term returns. The US is the biggest market in the world, and its long history lends itself well to analysis. Between 1900 and today, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That means an investor has, on average, doubled their money every 7.4 years. Not bad at all. That’s a recipe for wealth generation, and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been three per cent per annum over that entire period) and your purchasing power is maintained. However, what’s equally interesting is to consider the typical return in any given calendar year. I did that, and the results surprised me.
There's no shortage of things to watch this week, with Wednesday’s Reserve Bank meeting (which is the last of the year) likely to be the main event. Nobody is expecting any change in interest rates, but the updated projections in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement will be very important. There will be plenty of corporate earnings releases to monitor across the New Zealand market too, including interim results from market heavyweights Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Ryman Healthcare, both of which are on Wednesday. Markets will also be digesting the news of what our new government looks like, and which policies have survived negotiations.
Should asset sales be a topic up for discussion? We’re carrying higher debt than in the past, while our creaking infrastructure ensures there’d be no shortage of uses for the funds raised. Demand from investors wouldn’t be a problem, as our small sharemarket has limited options to satisfy the steady stream of KiwiSaver money that rolls in each month. The mixed ownership model has been a huge success in New Zealand, providing the best of both worlds to the taxpayer. It’s fostered stronger businesses and broadened the range of options available to local investors, helping keep more of our investment capital within our shores. Forward-thinking politicians would be wise to shelve any misconceptions and embrace these opportunities.
US shares had another very strong week, with the S&P 500 rising 2.2%. The index is up 7.6% in November and on track for its best month in more than a year. The NZX 50 in New Zealand was more subdued, although it still added 0.3% for its third consecutive weekly gain. The local market has rallied 3.9% this month, on track for its best performance since January. Looking ahead, it will be a holiday-shortened week in the US, with markets closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. There will also be an early close on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and the unofficial start to the Christmas shopping season. The highlight of the global economic calendar will be the flash PMIs for November. Investors will be watching to see if manufacturing rebound continues, and whether the services sector weakens further. There's a bit happening on the corporate front too, with Oceania Healthcare, Goodman Property Trust and My Food Bag all set to announce earnings in New Zealand, while in the US artificial intelligence will be in focus when NVIDIA releases its latest result on Tuesday.
Many principles of investing are considered compulsory, and one of these is the need for diversification. It can mean spreading your capital over different asset classes, such as bonds and fixed income as well as shares and real estate, or ensuring you own a range of companies across multiple regions and sectors. Being diversified protects you from the risk of major losses, just in case something goes wrong with one of your individual investments or holdings. Let's talk about the basics of diversification, how much is too much, and why some investors might advocate for a more concentrated approach.
The key economic release this week will be the October inflation report in the US. Due Tuesday, the headline consumer price index is expected to slow further, although core inflation is forecast to remain stubbornly high. Markets will also be watching US retail sales on Wednesday. Politics will also be in the spotlight, ahead of Friday's deadline for US Congress to avert a government shutdown as well as the APEC economic leaders' week in San Francisco continuing throughout the week. US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on Wednesday, amidst a deteriorating relationship between the world's two biggest economies. Locally, we'll get the October housing report from the Real Estate Institute, as well as the latest migration figures. Earnings releases will be forthcoming from Napier Port, Serko and Infratil, while Precinct Properties, Contact Energy and a2 Milk will be among those holding annual meetings.
Investors have been heartened by reports of softer economic conditions, an easing labour market and slowing wage growth in both New Zealand and the US. These are necessary developments for inflation to moderate and interest rates to stop rising. However, the outlook is finely balanced. When unemployment starts rising it tends to keep rising, and even modest increases have historically meant a downturn becomes hard to avoid. We want conditions to weaken, but not too much. So far, so good, but this can be a very difficult needle to thread.
Global sharemarkets have had a difficult few months, with the S&P 500 in the US and the NZX 50 here in New Zealand falling more than ten per cent between the end of July and late October. That’s been unsettling for investors, and there are still plenty of uncertainties ahead of us. However, a case can also be made for a stronger finish to 2023. Here are five reasons why markets could rebound over the balance of the year.
Global sharemarkets rebounded strongly last week, with investors encouraged by softer economic indicators and evidence of easing labour markets that could mean interest rates are close to a peak. The S&P 500 in the US surged 5.9%, its best weekly performance in a year, while the NZX 50 here in New Zealand posted the best weekly gain in 16 months with a rise of 3.3%. This week markets will be listening closely to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and watching the Reserve Bank of Australia to see if interest rates rise further across the Tasman. The international earnings season will continue, while a number of domestic companies will be holding annual meetings and market heavyweight Mainfreight will report its interim result.
After a solid first half of the year, it’s been a difficult few months for the local sharemarket. The NZX 50 has fallen more than ten per cent since the end of July, to just above the post-COVID lows from the middle of last year. This weakness has seen it slip about six per cent into the red on a year-to date basis, putting it on track for a third consecutive annual decline. In data going back to the mid-1960s, New Zealand shares have never declined for three years in a row, making this a somewhat unwanted milestone. What’s driving this weakness, and what would it take to turn things around?
Global sharemarkets remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 in the US and the NZX 50 in New Zealand both down more than 10% since July. Rising global yields have been a key culprits, and although we saw a decline last week these remain close to the highest in many years. This week will be another very busy one, with central bank meetings taking palce in the UK, UK and Japan, as well as key economic releases such as the US jobs report and Chinese PMIs. Locally, the latest unemployment figures will be of interest, as will the final election results with the outcome of special votes to be announced on Friday. The reporting season will continue across the world, with McDonalds, Caterpillar, Ecolab, CVS Health, Apple, Starbucks and Zoetis likely to be some of the highlights.
One of our least favourite sharemarket analogies is when it’s said to be just like a casino. While some traders might treat their portfolio like a sports betting account, for genuine investors this comparison couldn’t be further from the truth. You might get lucky a few times at the casino, but the more you play the greater your chances of losing. In contrast, when it comes to investing in the sharemarket, the longer you stay the better your odds of success.
Markets have remained under pressure of late, with rising global bond yields and the conflict in the Middle East creating uncertainty for investors. However, we've seen a few positives as well, with local inflation figures coming in softer than expected and Chinese economic indicators beating expectations. Looking to the week ahead, there are a number of annual meetings to keep an eye on here in New Zealand, while the earnings season ramped up overseas with results due from the likes of 3M, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, Alphabet (Google) and Amazon.
Whether to fix or float, and for how long is a common question for borrowers to ask. With interest rates at 15-year highs and household budgets considerably tighter than in the past, there’s more riding on these decisions today. Those who opt for a lengthier fixed term will save some money in the immediate future, but they might find themselves stuck on higher rates if the winds change. In that case, it might be preferable to select a shorter-term rate and keep your options open. As with most money matters, the best course of action will depend on your individual situation. However, here’s our take on the issues to consider at this juncture.
There's plenty to monitor in the week ahead, with Federal Reserve officials in focus as six of the seven Board members speak publicly before the blackout period begins ahead of the next meeting. The most important appearance will be that of Chair Jerome Powell, which takes place on Thursday at the Economic Club of New York. China will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, with the release of monthly economic indicators as well as gross domestic product for the September quarter. There will also be plenty to monitor on the corporate calendar, with the international reporting season set to heat up with results from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Tesla. Here at home, markets will have the election results from the weekend to ponder, as well as the latest inflation figures and the results of another dairy auction. Auckland Airport and Tourism Holdings are holding annual meetings this week, while all eyes will be on Fletcher Building when it resumes trading on Monday morning when the market opens.
A change of government was confirmed last night, with Christopher Luxon from the National Party set to be our new Prime Minister. Preliminary figures reflect a much stronger showing than expected from National, which ended with a very healthy 39 per cent of the party vote. However, those hoping for a relatively straightforward two-party coalition between National and Act shouldn’t get their hopes up. With more than half a million special votes still to be counted, there's a good chance NZ First will still be required to form a government. What happens next, when might we know the final outcome, and what does this mean for investors and financial markets?
The biggest story across financial markets in recent weeks has been rising bond yield. This has pushed up borrowing costs across the board, and sent mortgage rates higher despite the Official Cash Rate remaining unchanged since May. Higher bond yields have also taken the wind out of other asset classes, including the sharemarket. Why is this happening, and what should borrowers and investors be thinking about against this backdrop of interest rate volatility?
The military conflict in the Middle East over the weekend has added to the list of geopolitical worries, and led to a fresh bout of volatility across financial markets. The hostilities escalated when militants affiliated with Hamas initiated a large-scale attack against Israel. These tragic developments have led to a significant human toll, and raised grave concerns about an extended conflict. Somewhat ominously, last Friday marked 50 years since the Yom Kippur War started. This armed conflict also began with a surprise attack against Israel and it was a catalyst for this oil shock. Are we headed for another stagflationary period like the 1970s, and what might this conflict mean for investors?
We're back after a week away and there's no shortage of action across financial markets to talk about! Another busy week looms, with a crucial inflation report due in the US just as bond yields hit 15-year highs. We'll also see the September quarter global reporting season begin, with some of the financial heavyweights set to release earnings reports late in the week. On the local front, the election will take centre stage on Saturday. Will we see a change of government, what could that mean for investors, and how might Winston Peters feature in the outcome?
When it comes to investments, shares and property get most of the attention. However, fixed income is equally as important to the average investor, making up somewhere between 20 and 40 per cent of the typical diversified portfolio. Bonds have been doing it tough since the pandemic, with interest rates moving sharply higher from near-zero levels. However, a tipping point may soon be upon us, and those headwinds might become tailwinds. This time next year interest rates could well be lower than they are today and if that happens, some savers might find themselves facing much less attractive reinvestment options. It makes good sense to lock in this income at current rates, and make hay while the sun is shining.
Global inflation trends will be in focus in the days head, after a flurry of central bank decisions last week that saw the "higher for longer" interest rate theme become further entrenched. The key release will be personal consumption expenditures inflation in the US, as well as fresh inflation readings in Europe and Japan. Chinese economic indicators will also be closely watched as investors look for further evidence of a stabilisation in the economy, while on the corporate front we'll also see earnings releases from US consumer heavyweights Costco and Nike. Here in New Zealand, the key release will be the ANZ Business Outlook for September, which will hopefully reflect another improvement in sentiment and a further softening of inflationary indicators. With less than three weeks to go until the election, politics will also be in the spotlight.
It feels a little gloomy at the moment. Investors are on the sidelines, many economists seem more downbeat than usual, and the sharemarket has been uninspiring so far in 2023. There’s nothing wrong with a healthy dose of caution, is it really all bad out there? We’ve got our fair share of challenges, and the economy is still facing a bumpy path in the months ahead. It’s natural to focus on these negatives, but we’ve got a few reasons to maintain a glass half-full view as well.
Buckle up for another action packed week across financial markets! Three of the world's biggest central banks are meeting, including the Federal Reserve in the US. We've also got inflation reports due in the UK and Japan, as well as the first indicators for how economic activity is tracking in September. Here at home, we'll see the results of another dairy auction as well as the latest quarterly GDP figures. Fonterra is due to report its annual result, while the first live Leaders' Debate from TVNZ will take place on Tuesday night.
The last few years have been very strong for the US labour market, as well as here in New Zealand. Unemployment has been extremely low, wage growth has been strong, and unions have negotiated some historic contracts. This labour market tightness has given workers, particularly those in lower-paid professions, bargaining power they haven’t had for decades. As a result, wage growth (in both the US as well as here) has been the strongest in at least 30 years. However, we’re starting to see a few cracks appear. What might this mean for inflation, interest rates, and the path of the economy?
As always, there's plenty going across financial markets this week. Here in New Zealand, we’ll get the latest migration estimates, as well as electronic card spending and a fresh monthly housing report. Markets will also be watching the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) from Treasury on Tuesday. The extent of deterioration in the economic outlook and a likely increase to the borrowing programme will be closely monitored. Elsewhere, the highlight of the economic week will likely be the August consumer price index report in the US, where a rebound in fuel prices is likely to see headline inflation push higher (while core inflation remains steady). This will follow recent releases that point to progress on the inflation front, as well as signs the labour market is easing, as we look ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting next week.
China has been a powerhouse of global growth in recent decades, and investors seeking the excitement and opportunity of emerging markets haven’t needed to look much further. However, the world’s second largest economy is facing increasing challenges, bringing its credentials as an obvious investment destination into question. In contrast, India is shaping up as a highly attractive place to do business, as well as invest capital. With a very large population and favourable demographic trends, it could well be in the early stages of a longer-term boom at a time when China is quite likely ending one. In short, India’s future might look like China’s past, making it increasingly worthy of consideration for investors.
The S&P 500 in the US rose 2.5% last week, its best weekly performance in almost three months. That wasn’t enough to see the US market finish August in the green, however, with the index ending 1.8% lower for its first negative month since February. The local NZX 50 increased a more modest 0.5%, as investors digested a cautious reporting season and looked ahead to the election with some trepidation. It will be a holiday-shortened week in the US, with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday. Investors will be watching to see how Chinese markets respond to further efforts from policymakers to stimulate the economy and support the troubled property sector. On the central banking front, we'll hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada, while here in New Zealand the results of the latest global dairy auction will be closely watched.
With just six weeks to go until the election, the local sharemarket seems to be in a bit of a funk. There are a number of reasons for this, and uncertainty over how the political landscape will look beyond October is one of them. Are we likely to see a market rebound in the wake of the election, and would a change a government be a positive for investors? Let's take a look back through history and see what's happened after elections in the past.
There are plenty of important economic releases due in the US this week, with the August jobs report and July PCE inflation figures of most interest. China's latest PMIs will be a focal point, while unemployment releases are due across Europe. Here in New Zealand, the ANZ Business Outlook survey will be the key economic releases on Thursday and the earnings season will continue as well. Meridian Energy and Tourism Holdings are two of the likely highlights, while investors will be watching for an update from market heavyweight Fisher & Paykel Healthcare at its annual meeting on Tuesday. Find out what all of this could mean for you and your investment portfolio right here!
After a stellar first seven months of the year, August is proving to be more challenging for investors. US shares are down about four per cent this month, which puts it on track to be the weakest month since December last year. What's brought on this sudden bout of August anxiety, and what might the near-term hold for investors?
There's an awful lot happening across financial markets at the moment. US shares have fallen for three weeks in a row, while 10-year Treasury yields are close to the highest levels since 2007. China has found itself in a challenging situation with weak domestic demand, fears of deflation, a troubled housing market and concerns over the shadow lending sector. New Zealand farmers are feeling the brunt of this, with Fonterra cutting its milk payout forecast for the second time in a fortnight on Friday, although none of this has stopped the Reserve Bank warning us of the potential for more hikes in the Official Cash Rate if inflation doesn't start behaving. Then there's the NZX earnings season, which started last week and really ramps up in the days ahead. Find out which stocks were hot, which were not, and everything else you need to know to keep up with global markets this week!
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% today, having increased it at 12 consecutive meetings between October 2021 and May of this year. The forecasts in the associated Monetary Policy Statement reflected a more resilient economy, a labour market that remains tighter for longer, and higher inflation over the next 12 months. What does this mean for investors, and is there a risk interest rates need to go higher?
Dairy prices have been trending lower for the past 18 months, and the declines have gathered pace in recent weeks. This will impact the broader economy, flowing through to reduced spending on goods and services, lower activity, and a reduced tax take. It could also put some downward pressure on the currency, given the historic relationship between global dairy prices and the NZ dollar. For investors, this is a timely reminder of the need to hedge our bets with a healthy exposure to international assets. This provides an insurance policy against any challenges we might face, and any currency weakness that might follow as a result.
The US consumer will be in focus this week with retail sales for July out on Tuesday, as well as earnings releases from Home Depot and Walmart. Following a better-than-expected GDP report in the UK on Friday, markets will be watching wage data on Tuesday and the July inflation report on Wednesday. There’ll be plenty to keep an eye on here this week, with the Reserve Bank set to release its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, as well as a fresh set of economic projections. The reporting season also kicks off both here and across the Tasman. Local highlights are likely to include Contact Energy, Fletcher Building, Skellerup and Spark, while we'll be watching the likes of LendLease, Amcor, CSL, Transurban and Goodman Group in Australia.
The reporting season kicks off next week and we can expect a plethora of releases across the NZX. About two thirds of the companies on our market will report earnings through August and September. As always, there will be winners and losers. Some companies will be feeling the pressure of slower economic growth and rising costs, while others will have enjoyed a pleasing return to profitability. In aggregate, the next several weeks will allow us to take the pulse of corporate New Zealand, providing some real-time insights into where the economy is at and where it’s headed.
The S&P 500 in the US fell 2.3% last week, its worst performance in almost five months. After a stellar run that’s seen the US market rebound more than 25% from its October 2022 lows, a breather is to be expected. A slightly weaker than expected result from market heavyweight Apple and a softer jobs report that pointed to persistent inflation pressures were catalysts for the more cautious tone. There was a lot going on in the local market too, with some fresh unemployment figures coming out as well as a big downgrade in the forecast milk payout from Fonterra. Get the lowdown on what this means for the economy, the currency and the path of interest rates right here, along with a heads up of what you need to keep an eye on this week.
August is “Money Month”, an annual public awareness campaign run by Te Ara Ahunga Ora (the Retirement Commission) to help improve financial wellbeing. With that in mind, we thought we’d let aspiring share investors in on a secret, which is that it’s much easier than people think. In fact, if you follow two simple rules it’s hard to go wrong.
The S&P 500 in the US rose another 1.0% last week, following more evidence inflation is coming under control and in the wake of more solid earnings releases. Having rallied 28.1% from the lows of last October, the US index is just 4.5% below its peak from January 2022. Last week was action-packed across financial markets, and the next five days are looking extremely busy too. There are some crucial economic releases due out of the US, including the ISM indices and the monthly jobs report, both of which the Federal Reserve will be watching closely. Elsewhere on the central bank front, interest rate decisions loom in Australia and the UK. Here in New Zealand, the June quarter labour force report will take centre-stage, but we'll also get the latest business confidence figures and dairy auction results. Corporate earnings will remain in focus, with another 170 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report quarterly results. Technology will be in the spotlight again, with Amazon and Apple both set to report on Thursday. Other companies to watch include Republic Services, Caterpillar, Diageo, Starbucks, CVS Health and FMC Corporation.
The election is less than three months away, the campaign is heating up and political experts are speculating on what the makeup of our next government will be. For the economy, uncertainty always prevails as an election approaches. Businesses tend to sit on their hands, refraining from making any major decisions while the policy backdrop is up in the air. However, once they’re out of the way most firms simply get on with things, rather than letting the political landscape derail their plans. We need to monitor potential risks or changes, but we should also remember that good quality assets and great businesses can perform well regardless of who’s in office. It’s not always wise to make wholesale changes to our investment strategy on the basis of politics.
World sharemarkets remained in an upbeat mood last week, with the S&P 500 in the US rising another 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up ten days in a row, its best winning streak since 2017. Looking ahead, a very busy five days loom, with flash PMIs set to take the pulse of global growth on Monday, then three major central bank meetings later in the week. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are both expected to raise interest rates by another 0.25% each, while we'll hear from the Bank of Japan on Friday as well. Corporate earnings will also be in focus, with more than 160 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report quarterly results. Among others, we'll hear from tech heavyweights Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, as well as some of the oil majors and consumer-facing businesses like Unilever, Coca-Cola, McDonald's and Procter & Gamble.
If you’re feeling a little confused about where global sharemarkets are headed, you’re not alone. Even the experts are unsure, with the range of predictions for how things will play out from here at the widest in decades. Wall Street forecasters have been caught well and truly off guard this year, with the strength of the US sharemarket taking almost everyone by surprise. What's driving this optimism, and why have the experts been proven wrong so far in 2023?
Last week was a very strong one for global sharemarkets, as investors cheered a softer than expected US inflation report that fuelled hopes interest rates will stop rising soon and that a major recession can be avoided. Looking ahead, the local highlight will be the June quarter inflation report here in New Zealand. Due Wednesday, it is hoped this will show a further moderation in prices pressures which will help cement the view we have seen the last Official Cash Rate increase for this cycle. The interntional corporate reporting season also ramps up, with some 60 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report June quarter results. Among others, we'll hear from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Tesla and Johnson & Johnson.
The international quarterly reporting season kicked off a few days ago, and over the next few weeks this will be a focal point for share investors. This will be a crucial period for the direction of the sharemarket over the near-term, particularly in the US where much of the strength has come from this year. Despite some risk of earnings disappointment, there are still opportunities to be found. We've seen some stunning gains from a relatively narrow group, while many other parts of the market haven't risen nearly as much. While people have been obsessing over AI and how exciting it might be, many other great companies have been ignored and overlooked.
New Zealand's gross domestic product declined in the three months to March 2023, making for the second consecutive quarter of contraction. Since these figures were released last month it’s been widely reported that the New Zealand economy has experienced a recession. Is that really the case though, and was the contraction big enough or the weakness widespread enough for us to consider this a genuine recession?
Global sharemarkets took a breather last week, with most falling slightly after a very strong first half of the year. Meanwhile, interest rates pushed higher as investors considered the prospect of more monetary policy tightening in the months ahead. There's plenty to keep an eye on in the days ahead, including a Reserve Bank decision here in New Zealand, an important inflation report in the US, and the start of the international quarterly reporting season. Find out what you need to know and how some of these releases could impact your investments.
Last year was a difficult one for investors across the board. Against that backdrop, this year looked set to be another challenging one, with slower economic growth and more interest rate hikes expected to pressure markets. However, it’s hasn’t been too bad at all for investors. Here at the halfway point, world shares are up more than ten per cent, having rebounded more than 20 per cent from the lows of October last year. New Zealand investors have also seen their returns boosted further by favourable currency moves. The local sharemarket has been more subdued than most, but the NZX 50 index is slightly higher this year and is almost ten per cent above its low point from mid-2022. Looking ahead, there is some room for optimism, although there are also plenty of risks. How might the second half play out, and what should investors be thinking about?
The S&P 500 in the US fell 1.4% last week, after five consecutive weekly gains that saw the index rise to its highest level since April 2022 at the end of the previous week. Most other global sharemarkets were softer as well, including the local market. After a strong rally, markets lost a bit of steam as the reality of higher interest rates and slower economic activity sets in. More aggressive moves from central banks in the likes of Australia and England have been a reminder that rates could still rise further in some regions, and they might not fall as quickly as some had hoped. The key releases in the week ahead will include fresh inflation readings in the US and Europe, as well as activity indicators from China as investors consider how further stimulus might develop as economic activity continues to languish. The European Central Bank is holding a central banking forum in Portugal, which will feature a panel of key central bank representatives. The Federal Reserve will also release the results of its annual bank stress tests, which will be very interesting given the failure of several US regional banks earlier in the year. Closer to home, it'll be a relatively quiet week here in New Zealand, with the key release likely to be the ANZ Business Outlook for June.
The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for close to 80 years. It started to displace the British pound in the 1920s, and secured the undisputed mantle after World War II. The dominance of the greenback is entrenched in the sheer size of the US economy. It is the world’s largest, accounting for more than 25 per cent of global gross domestic product. It also has a stable political backdrop, deep capital markets and a strong rule of law, as well as a powerful military. Even so, the US dollar’s dominance has declined in recent decades. Is the mighty greenback at risk of losing its mantle as the world’s reserve currency, and what implications might that have for financial markets?
It was another strong week for sharemarkets around the world, once again led by the US. The S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive weekly gain, which sees it up almost 15% this year and some 23.3% above its October 2022 lows. The Federal Reserve meeting was a highlight and while the US central bank left interest rates unchanged, further hikes could be looming in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the March quarter GDP report took centre stage here in New Zealand, but was it really bad enough to be considered a recession? We'll cover all of these developments and more, as well as sharing our thoughts about what investors need to keep an eye out for in the upcoming week.
After falling for the past 18 months, it’s starting to look like the housing market is beginning to stabilise. The Real Estate Institute’s national house price index peaked in November 2021, and it's fallen 18.1 per cent since then. That’ll be a great comfort to many homeowners, while it will also boost confidence across the economy. At the same time, it doesn’t mean house prices are set to take off again anytime soon. We've still got a few headwinds to contend with, such as a potential rise in unemployment, mortgage rates that are the highest in 15 years, and the uncertainty of an upcoming election. Are we at the bottom for the housing market, and where might prices go from here?
Last week was another strong one for US shares. The S&P 500 in the US posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain, with a rise of 0.4%. That sees it up 12.0% this year, 20.2% above than the October lows and at the highest levels since August. Looking ahead, this week us shaping up as a busy one. There are three major central bank decisions looming, with the Federal Reserve in the US set to be the main event. With a new set of projections due, it’ll be interesting to see how much support there is for further tightening, as well as the views on the potential timing of rate cuts. A day before that, we’ll get the latest inflation figures from the world’s biggest economy. This won’t necessarily impact the outcome of the Fed decision, but it could shift expectations for what to expect over the balance of this year. In New Zealand, the March quarter GDP report is due. After a negative result three months ago, we could’ve slipped into a mild recession, or gone close to doing so.
Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is always a common question, but it’s especially relevant today. Mortgage rates are at 15-year highs, with borrowing costs at levels many homeowners won’t have experienced before. Paying down the mortgage as quickly as you can is sensible, and it’ll set you on the path to financial freedom. However, it’s not black or white and using some of that spare money to invest along the way will also pay off.
Last week was another strong one for US shares, with the S&P 500 rising 1.8% to its highest level since August 2022. Investors celebrated a resolution to the debt ceiling debate, as well as evidence of slowing inflation and an easing labour market. The S&P 500 has rallied 11.5% in 2023, or 17.0% in New Zealand dollar terms! Looking ahead, it will be a holiday-shortened week here in Aotearoa, with markets closed for the King’s Birthday public holiday on Monday. There’s more happening in Australia, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Tuesday afternoon set to take centre stage.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Federal Reserve in the US both increased interest rates again last month. You can never be sure, but that could’ve been the final increase from both central banks. RBNZ projections imply as much, and while it’s unclear whether the Fed will move again, many economists believe it too has done enough. What does this mean for investors, and will it prove to be a turning point for financial markets?
It will be a holiday-shortened week in the US and the UK, with both markets closed on Monday. However, there's still plenty for investors to keep an eye on! The US debt ceiling debate will remain front of mind, after news over the weekend of a tentative agreement that could support investor sentiment. On the economic front, we will be watching the ISM manufacturing index and jobs report in the US, and the latest inflation figures in Europe. It'll be a quieter few days here in New Zealand, although markets will continue to assess what last week's Reserve Bank means for interest rates and financial markets.
World sharemarkets have been remarkably calm in recent weeks, despite plenty of uncertainty around. Inflation is still stubbornly high, nor is it completely clear how much further interest rates will rise. We’ve also got the small matter of the US debt ceiling to resolve. Former Federal Reserve Chair and current Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has said the country might be unable to pay all of its bills by June. The US is the world’s largest economy and its more important borrower, so that’s kind of a big deal. With that in mind, you’d think markets would been on edge, but that’s not the case. The S&P 500 in the US has rallied almost ten per cent this year, while volatility is at the lowest levels since July 2021, almost two years ago. Are we being too complacent?
After all the excitement of Budget 2023, this week we’ll see how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand feels about a little more stimulus than many had expected. The Official Cash Rate is almost certain to increase on Wednesday, although it will be interesting to see how much further the Bank sees it going after that. It’s also a busy week on the corporate front, with several earnings releases to keep an eye on including announcements from market heavyweights Mainfreight and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.
Artificial intelligence, or AI, is one of the hottest topics around at the moment. We've all heard of ChatGPT, which can help you with your homework or write a pretty good anniversary card for your spouse. Apparently. Many industries are at risk of being disrupted by these advances, potentially leading to some jobs becoming less relevant, or even obsolete. At the same time, the innovations and potential productivity improvements are exciting. For investors, these trends shouldn't be ignored. AI will continue to improve and the pace with which these changes start to impact society could be more rapid than we think.
There are several important economic releases to monitor this week, including US retail sales and Chinese activity indicators for April. On the central bank front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Friday and the minutes from the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia meeting will be of interest across the Tasman. Here in New Zealand, the highlight of the week will be Budget 2023 on Thursday afternoon. For share investors there will be plenty to watch. Here in New Zealand Serko, Goodman Property, My Food Bag and Ryman Healthcare are all set to announce results this week, while international companies Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba and Tencent will also release quarterly earnings.
We got some fresh unemployment figures last week, for both New Zealand and the US. In both cases, the upshot was that the labour market is still extremely tight and wages are still rising solidly, albeit at a slower pace. Against that backdrop, it’s hard to believe a recession might be on the doorstep of either country. Things can’t be that bad when everyone has a job and the labour market is still ticking over nicely, can they?
Banking sector woes, worries about the US debt ceiling and a string of interest rate hikes from the world's central banks are keeping markets nervous at the moment. Over the coming week we've got the Australian budget, a crucial inflation report out of the US, and more international earnings releases as the reporting season winds down. Find out what all this means for investors, and what you need to keep an eye on in the days ahead.
If you’re lucky enough to a bit of surplus cash at the moment, it’s a difficult time to think about putting it to work. You want your hard-earned capital working productively, but it’s scary to think about venturing into financial markets (or any asset class, for that matter) with your savings. Jumping in boots and all could be unwise, while sitting back and waiting for perfect conditions to emerge can backfire as well. In this episode, we'll discuss some of these challenges and talk about strategies investors can use to get invested.
The month of April proved to be another strong one for equity markets across the world, ensuring that the run of good returns investors have enjoyed since late 2022 continued. However, we are entering a period that is typically more challenging. Looking to the week ahead, there is plenty to keep investors busy. This week, we’ll be watching central bank decisions in Australia, Europe and the US, with the latter set to be the key event. Some important economic releases are due, while the international reporting season continues as well. Key releases will come from Ecolab, FMC Corporation, Starbucks, CVS health and Apple. Locally, the March quarter labour force report will be a highlight, as will the latest Financial Stability Report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We discuss all of this, and more, on this episode so tune in to find out everything you need to know for the upcoming week across financial markets!
The eagerly awaited Inland Revenue tax research report was released on Wednesday. Revenue Minister David Parker has suggested this provides evidence the super-wealthy are paying much lower tax rates than many ordinary New Zealanders. It's not quite as simple as that, and we don’t yet know how the Government proposes closing this gap (if it does at all), but tax policy looks set to be a key battleground in the lead-up to the election in October. Watch this space.
In this week's podcast Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses New Zealand's lower than expected inflation in the March quarter and what it means for investors. He also previews a busy five days ahead, which will see the release of business confidence and an important tax report locally, as well as GDP figures out of the US and a plethora of earnings releases from some international heavyweights.
In this podcast episode, Mark Lister, Investment Director, will explain the difference between nominal returns and real returns and why investors need to be mindful of the differences when looking to grow their capital over the long term.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how global sharemarkets have staged a strong rebound of late. Despite a lot of volatility this year, the first three months of 2023 have been very lucrative for investors that have held their nerve. There’s plenty to watch in the days ahead, with the Reserve Bank likely to be a local high. While another hike in the Official Cash Rate is all but assured, we’ll be looking for clues as to what the Reserve Bank will do next.
In this podcast episode, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how it’s been a difficult ride for all investors, but particularly those who are relatively new to investing. Their experience will have been punctuated by a slow, depressing decline in asset prices, which almost certainly feel disconcerting. That’s due to unfortunate timing, but there are a few things newer investors should keep in mind to they stay on course.
In this podcast episode, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how the last couple of weeks have been extremely volatile. Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse may not be the last casualties of the sharp rise in interest rates, but there could be a silver lining in all this for investors.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how stability returned to global sharemarkets last week, as fears of a banking crisis subsided and the end of the central bank monetary policy tightening cycle drew nearer. Looking ahead, this is the final trading week of the March quarter, and investors will be keeping a close eye on an important inflation release in the US, as well as New Zealand business confidence.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank roiled markets and the risk of contagion has reverberated through other parts of the global banking sector. We also saw evidence of cooling US inflation and a weaker than expected GDP report here in New Zealand. Looking ahead, the US Federal Reserve has a tough call to make this week as it decides whether to increase interest rates further against a backdrop of such volatility.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how it was a rough week for global markets, with some strong words from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and then the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (a leader to tech start-ups in the US) denting sentiment. We discuss what this means for the outlook, and look ahead to the latest US inflation figures and the New Zealand GDP report in the days ahead.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how it was another action packed-week across financial markets, with the S&P 500 breaking a three-week losing streak and the US 10-year Treasury yield pushing back over 4%. The reporting season might be over, but there’s plenty to keep investors busy in the day ahead, including central bank decisions in Australia, Canada and Japan, the latest dairy auction results, and a crucial US jobs report which will set the tone for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
In this podcast episode, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how February was a busy month for financial markets, both offshore and here in New Zealand. After starting the year on a high, we saw some caution creep in and many markets finished the month in negative territory. Let's recap the key events of the month, what they mean for the outlook, and consider some of the things we need to keep an eye on heading into March.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how world sharemarkets were down, after a hotter than expected inflation report in the US. We also had another hike in the OCR, and many more earnings releases from a range of New Zealand companies. There’s plenty more coming up this week, so tune in to find out what you need to keep an eye on in the days ahead.
In this mid-week podcast episode, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how you’ll often hear us talking about “the market”, and whether it has moved up, down or sideways. What we’re really referring to are sharemarket indices like the NZX 50 in New Zealand, the S&P 500 in the US or the FTSE 100 in the UK. In this podcast episode we’ll explain what an index is, why some have performed better than others recently, and what investors need to be aware of when using ETFs or other similar securities.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how a busy week looms, with the Reserve Bank set to announce its latest interest rate decision, and a landslide of earnings reports from across New Zealand and Australia due to be released.
In this podcast episode, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how the Reserve Bank will release its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, and another big hike in the Official Cash Rate is expected. However, with a few positive signs emerging on the inflation front, can we expect them to hit the pause button soon? Find out what this means for borrowers, how the recent weather might impact the economy and what the Reserve Bank might do next.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how lots is going on across financial markets, especially when it comes to corporate earnings releases. The reporting season kicks off with some of the local heavyweights in the days ahead, including Contact Energy, Fletcher Building and Sky City.
In this mid-week podcast episode, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how interest rates are proving problematic for over-leveraged borrowers while being a headwind for the economy and asset prices. For conservative savers, however, the investment landscape and prospective returns haven’t looked this good in years.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how last week was an eventful one, with sharemarkets rising further on the back of some key central bank announcements. Find out what this means for you and what you need to watch in the days ahead, including a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some high-profile earnings releases.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how it’s been a strong start to the year for many asset classes, including shares and fixed income. However, there are some crucial economic releases and central bank meetings coming up this week that could determine whether the optimism continues. Find out what to expect and what you need to know for the week ahead right here.
In this mid-week podcast, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses how there hasn't been any let-up in the rising cost of living, with yesterday's inflation figures showing no change to the annual inflation rate of 7.2%, which is very close to a 32-year high. However, there was some good news amongst the detail that might signal a turning point. Find out what this means for the Reserve Bank’s next move, the economic outlook and the investment landscape for the balance of the year.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses sharemarkets have started 2023 in good spirits with all major indices posting solid gains in January. There’s plenty going on this week as well, including New Zealand's latest inflation report and earnings releases from global heavyweights like 3M, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Visa, Boeing and Tesla.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director, discusses six of the most common questions that many of us will ponder now that we've closed the book on 2022. Where might the housing market go from here, will the cost of living pressures ease, is a recession inevitable, and have sharemarkets passed the bottom already?
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses markets taking a breather last week and retreating slightly after a strong run through October and November. This week is a massive one for economic releases, central bank decisions and politics. We’ve got the latest inflation figures out of the US, as well as interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and its counterparts in Europe and the UK. Here in New Zealand, we’ll get the Budget Policy Statement and the latest update from the Treasury on our economic situation. Find out here what this will all mean for sharemarkets, currencies, interest rates and your portfolio.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses another very strong week for markets, as we enter the home stretch. We discuss why investors are feeling more upbeat, what’s driving the rebound in sharemarkets and the NZ dollar, and whether this is sustainable or not. We also look ahead to another week of economic releases and company results, and share our thoughts on what investors should look out for over the coming days.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses last week’s monster OCR hike, some tough talk from the Reserve Bank, a business confidence survey and the latest earnings release from market heavyweight Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses world sharemarkets were subdued last week, while interest rates were mixed and the NZ dollar rebounded. Looking ahead, the local highlight will undoubtedly be the latest Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday afternoon. Another increase in the Official Cash Rate is assured, which should see it reach its highest levels since early 2009, and the only question is how high does it go.
In our podcast this week, Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses that US shares rose strongly last week, after lower-than-expected October inflation figures were released. At the same time, bond yield fell sharply as investors pondered the prospect of a less aggressive Federal Reserve in the months ahead. We also saw some positive news out of China, suggesting policymakers might be starting to relax their very stringent COVID zero policy. Have markets reached a turning point, and will the upbeat sentiment continue?
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses last week was an extremely eventful one for global financial markets, and there's plenty more going on in the days ahead. The US midterm elections are coming up, and there's an important inflation report coming out of the US too. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank will release its survey of expectations, while earnings releases will be forthcoming from Mainfreight, Xero, and two of the Australian banks.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses a very busy week looms across financial markets, with central bank decisions due in Australia, the US and the UK, as well as the latest unemployment figures set to be released here in New Zealand. After a mixed bag of results from several US heavyweights last week, investors will also be watching more earnings releases to take the pulse of the corporate sector. Listen in to find out where markets might be headed next, and what you need to be keeping an eye out for in the days ahead.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses another challenging week for financial markets, with a hot US inflation report and all the drama in UK bond markets keeping investors cautious. In the days ahead, the latest New Zealand inflation figures are out, China will release its latest GDP report, and many of the world’s biggest companies are set to announce earnings.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses the Reserve Bank upping the Official Cash Rate again, a crucial inflation report due out of the US, and the beginning of the international reporting season. Find out what this means for the path of interest rates from here, and what investors need to know as some of the world’s biggest companies announce their latest earnings results.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses another action-packed week across financial markets, with the month of September living up to its name as one of the more challenging of the year. There’s plenty to come this week, including another potential hike in the Official Cash Rate, and some crucial economic indicators out of the US. Can markets find a bit of stability in the days ahead, or is the September volatility likely to continue into October?
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses another volatile week for financial markets, with US shares falling sharply and some very severe moves in the UK on Friday. Find out what this all means for New Zealand investors, and which key releases we need to keep a close eye on during our holiday-shortened week.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses a stronger than expected inflation report, some cautious comments from US economic bellwether Fedex hitting sentiment and an important central bank meeting coming up this week, that could create more volatility across financial markets.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses which regions performed best and why a strong US dollar has been a tailwind for some local investors. There’s plenty coming up this week too, including some economic data here in New Zealand that will tell us if we’re anywhere near recession.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses another tough week for sharemarkets around the world, although the local market held up much better. Find out why, and what to keep an eye out for in the days ahead. We’ve got three major central bank meetings to monitor this coming week, and an escalating geopolitical situation in Europe over energy supply.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses last week being a tough one for markets, with US shares posting their biggest weekly fall in two months. What caused this volatility, and how are the coming five days shaping up for investors?
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses another week is behind us, and another hike in the OCR to digest. Listen here to hear our thoughts on how much higher local interest rates might go, as well as which earnings releases and other economic developments are worth keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
Sharemarkets have had a volatile ride in 2022, with a very difficult first half of the year followed by a pleasing rebound during July and August.
Mark Lister, Investment Director and Mo Singh, Senior Research Analyst discuss whether the current optimism will last, how local companies are positioned, and what investors can learn from the moves we’ve seen this year.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Investment Director discusses this week shaping up as a busy one, with the Reserve Bank likely to increase the Official Cash Rate again, and a plethora of local companies set to announce results as the earnings season kicks off. Here’s what we expect happen to interest rates this week, and a few thoughts on which company results might be worth watching.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses another busy week ahead, with a crucial inflation report due out of the US and the latest housing market figures set to be released here in New Zealand. Find out what these developments could mean for the economy and financial markets, and get the heads up on what you need to know for the week ahead.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses another good week for global sharemarkets, capping off the strongest monthly gain since 2020 across many indices, key economic releases in the US, as well as here at home, and many more large international companies set to announce earnings.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses a fairly good week for investors with most sharemarkets up and a solid start to the US reporting season, the Federal Reserve decision in the US, and earnings releases due from Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nestle and Procter & Gamble.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the OCR increasing again, US inflation coming in even hotter than expected, and the Chinese economy growing much more slowly than expected.
Looking ahead, highlight of the coming week will include the latest inflation figures here in New Zealand, as well as earnings releases from international heavyweights Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix and Tesla.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the NZ market having its best week since October 2020, the US jobs report being stronger than expected and the continuation of the current housing market trends.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses how it's been a difficult first six months of the year, signs of improvement in China, another interest rate hike likely across the Tasman and in New Zealand, the QSBO survey and latest dairy auction will be closely watched.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses how Global sharemarkets rebound as oil prices fall back and interest rate decline slightly, some good news for farmers, as Fonterra ups its 2022/23 milk payout forecast and another important US inflation report to keep an eye on this week, while here in New Zealand the ANZ Business Outlook survey will take the pulse of the corporate sector.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses how it was a rough week for investors with the US and NZ markets falling into 'bear market' territory, central banks were in focus with interest rate hikes in the US, UK and Switzerland, the GDP figures were out and softer than expected and the latest housing market report provided further evidence of a weakening property market.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses how last week was a rough week for the US in particular, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking interest rates more than expected and Fonterra being a top performer in the NZX 50 this week.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses how last week was the best week for New Zealand markets in four months thanks to some of the big players on the index, the improvements in the China May PMI results and the release of the May US inflation rate this week.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the impressive rebound of the S&P500 in the US, the revised projections of the OCR and inflation given the OCR rise last week and the upcoming announcements of Chinese economic indicators.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the tumultuous previous week, particularly in the US and the key economic announcements closer to home including the dairy auction where prices are likely to be the highest we've ever seen and the potential impacts of the results of the Australian election.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the ongoing volatility from last week, the potential stability of the interest rates and the increasing signs of a housing cooldown.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the rollercoaster that was last week, particularly in the US, the effects of higher interest rates and what the impending REINZ housing market report for April might have in store.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the NASDAQ having it's worst month in April since October 2008, making things difficult for US share investors and what is coming up in the local calendar.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses global markets updates and the big local news being the expected rise in the OCR from the RBNZ, but by how much?
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the facts and figures after the first quarter of 2022 has wrapped up, the upcoming announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia and what else there is to look forward to in the coming weeks.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research looks back over last week and how the US market was able to hold on to the gains from the previous week, discusses the ASX being the top performer for 2022 so far and the continuing rise of interest rates here and overseas.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the US market having it best week since November 2020 with the NASDAQ stronger still, interest rates keep drifting higher here and overseas, the continued slowing of the New Zealand housing market and what to watch this week.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses some of the reasons for the remarkable rebound of European shares last week despite the ongoing atrocities in Ukraine, the Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of England in the UK are both expected to raise interest rates, and the ongoing rises of mortgage rates here in NZ slowing down the housing market.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine and the impacts this is having on markets, supply chains and whether central banks will increase interest rates to keep inflation under control. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is due to meet and may need to make some tough decisions and the US inflation report is due.
In our podcast this week Mark Lister, Head of Private Wealth Research discusses the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the market volatility that followed, some of the standouts from the continuing NZ company reporting season, the first ANZ business confidence survey of 2022 and other global announcements.
Listen to Mark Lister discuss how the tensions between Russia and Ukraine may affect markets, the upcoming OCR announcement and forecasts from the RBNZ as well as the reporting season here and overseas.