St. Louis Blues Archives - Scoops with Danny Mac

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What have learned about the St. Louis Cardinals? A this point in the season, some conclusions are safe to say. We’ve got thoughts on Gorman, Winn, Baez and more. A few weeks of lull in the sports world but the NFL season is so close. We talk about the TV set up with games on different networks. We look at the upcoming BMW Championship in St. Louis too.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – August 10, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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We begin with talk about baseball’s reach and the Cardinals being a regional team, not just St. Louis. Then a brief look at the trades so far as the deadline approaches today. Martin has insight into his visit the Mizzou AD and the government regulations being proposed for the NCAA. It looks like the “Protect College Sports” act will pass this week. We look at a few of the details in that bill. And with the recent decision in Colorado, will some players return to college sports for a 5th year?

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – August 3, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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It’s always fun to hear our Legends reminisce about the people of their careers and lives. This episode features five of our recent guest legends doing just that. Perry Turnbull, Red Berenson, Gary Sabourin, John Wensink and Jeff Brown recall the guys of their time, and their stories.

The post Name Game with 5 Legends – Blues Hockey Legends appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Jeff Brown– a Blues star of the 1990s who still holds some of the offensive team records for a defenseman. Only Hull and Oates had more scoring points during the Blues ‘90’-91 season. After his playing days, Brownie became a highly-respected coach piloting several non-NHL teams to championships, and has been instrumental in developing young St. Louis players into NHL talent. Enjoy!

The post Jeff Brown: Blues 90s Star Defenseman – Blues Hockey Legends appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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New Great Talk ahead of the MLB Hall of Fame inductions this weekend. We talk about Joe Buck and others. Also, thoughts on Beltran, Pujols, Molina in a future managers role. We dig in a bit to John Mozeliak’s job with the Angels and how it could evolve. We also talk about the impending trade deadline and how the Cardinals could approach it. Is Nolan Gorman better off elsewhere? College football is just five weeks away… we look at Mizzou and other SEC topics.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – July 22, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Talking USMNT exit from the World Cup, future teams and more to start today. We also look at the home run derby, All-Star gam, Cardinals representation, the Wetherholt extension and more around MLB. Football and hockey seasons about a month away- a few thoughts on that as well.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – July 13, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Dan and Martin jump right in talking about the US mens team in the World Cup and the controversy surrounding Balogun’s red card. How does FIFA justify suspending it? How will it play into tonight’s game against Belgium? Also, a look at Jordan Walker’s appointment to the MLB All-Star team. How drastic will the Cardinals decisions be at the trade deadline? Will Riley O’Brien be swapped for pitching help? Thoughts on Mozeliak taking an interim job with the Angels and what may happen with that position going forward. Plus talk on Steen as St. Louis Blues GM, Sports Final and more.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – July 6, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Talking Indycar in St. Louis and Martin ride in the pacecar to start Great Talk. A look at the Tkachuks together in Florida and why the Blues weren’t an option for either brother. What’s the latest with the Cardinals’ Victor Scott, Liberatore and more? Thoughts on the World Cup, Team USA, Michigan basketball with a coaching change and other sports news.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – June 22, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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John Wensink played in two Stanley Cup finals in the mid 70s with the Boston Bruins. Before that he learned, almost by accident, that he could be a good fighter when necessary. He was drafted by the Blues, but only dressed for three games before landing in the Boston organization. Like many players, he returned to St. Louis to live after his career and has become a proud and active member of the alumni group. Now living in Farmington MO, he tells us some great stories from his career.

The post John Wensink: Blues Draftee, Bruins Career, Blues Alumni – Blues Hockey Legends appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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On today’s Great Talk, we dig into St. Louis Cardinals baseball with a look at the weekend series against the Cubs. Starting pitchers, Pujols return, and more. Also thoughts on backing up Gorman, adding or subtracting at the trade deadline, promoting prospects too soon and more.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – June 2, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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There’s an interesting connection to St. Louis Blues hockey with three cities with the same name. (Not St. Louis) And there’s an interesting story or two with each. Blues enforcer Kelly Chase, former executive Susie Mathieu, former player and coach Steve Ott, and former Rams player Grant Wistrom, all are mentioned in this one. Enjoy our little Blues geography lesson on this bonus episode!

The post Bonus Episode: 3 Blues-Connected Cities – Same Name – Blues Hockey Legends appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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A look at the recent Cardinals Insider show on Ozzie Smith, not just an ambassador for St. Louis but for all of MLB. We also look at the resurgence of Marmol with Cardinals fans. He seems to be getting the most he can out of the team. Are the right field bleachers now the place to be at Busch? We get into the NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs and more.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – May 26, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Hockey’s beginnings are traced back to late-19th Century Canada…and fighting has always been a part of the sport. We review fighting…why it’s allowed…why it’s not as prominent as it once was…and who are the all-time greats at it. Cam Janssen, who was excellent at it himself…is our expert guest.

The post Fighting with Cam Janssen – Blues Hockey Legends appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Talking Cardinals split series in San Diego with thoughts on pitching both starting and closing. Will Riley O’Brien bounce back well? A “way too early” look at MLB playoff teams too. We get into Lebron’s success at 41 and his NBA future plus how far away truly are the St. Louis Blues from another cup? Dan has thoughts on that after seeing this year’s playoff teams. Does Robert Thomas get named captain? And more on Blues hockey.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – May 11, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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The Cardinals are still winning despite expectations. What are some of the keys to their record? How much hinges on Jordan Walker? Will Mozeliak get some credit for building this team although he’s gone? We talk about the team changes when Nootbaar returns. A look at Pujols and Molina being inducted to the Cardinals Hall of Fame. Will they move he ceremony to the a stadium? We also get into future possibility for David Eckstein and David Freese to be inducted. News on some St. Louisans in the NHL playoffs to cheer on even though the Blues are out.

Listen here thanks to Lou Fusz Automotive group:

The post Great Talk with Danny Mac and Martin Kilcoyne – May 4, 2026 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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“Pucks with Panger” talking #NHL playoffs, @Panger40 with his playoff surprises, Berube coaching prospects, and Phoenix back in the #NHL mix. Presented by Auffenberg Hyundai

The post Pucks with Panger – Episode 8 – 2024 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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“Pucks with Panger” presented by @StlHyundai. The #StlBlues future, will Joel Quenneville coach again, Bedard’s season, hoping Gretzky can get @Panger40 to The Masters.

Presented by Auffenberg Hyundai

The post Pucks with Panger – Episode 7 – 2024 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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IT’S FRIDAY

TIME FOR BERNIE BITS!

I hope you are doing well, and gearing up for a fun weekend.

Get your NCAA Tournament brackets out. It’s almost go time.

TRACKING VICTOR SCOTT II

Cardinals manager Oli Marmol is impressed with the professionalism and maturity of center field prospect Victor Scott II. “He carries a notebook, and he’s always making notes to himself about what he’s learned, and what he needs to work on,” Marmol told me. “We see him going up to veterans and asking questions. And they’re good questions. He’s determined to learn and make himself better. Everyone notices that.”

PERSPECTIVE ON JORDAN BINNINGTON

I offer this just to show you how Binnington has returned to form in goal for the Blues. I’m going with the Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) metric used by Evolving Hockey. Here is Binnington’s season-by-season GSAA when playing goal at all strengths:

2018-2019: 13.73
2019-2020: 3.45
2020-2021: 2.55
2021-2022: minus 6.46
2022-2023: minus 19.16
2023-2024: 13.08

As you can see, Binnington is providing his highest level of quality in goal since his remarkable rookie season. And that’s kind of a big deal, especially considering that Binnington was minus 26.06 goals below average over his two previous seasons coming into 2023-24. I don’t know how the Blues managed to win as much as they did (not enough) over the past two seasons.

UPDATE ON JACK FLAHERTY

The Detroit Tigers are buzzing over Flaherty’s work in spring training. The Tigers signed the former Cardinal starter to a one-year deal worth $14 million, and thought they were getting him at a good time in his career. A new place, a new start, and some new ideas to help him improve.

Flaherty’s exhibition-game ERA is deceiving – 5.19 in 8 and ⅔ innings – but that’s mostly irrelevant. The Tigers are pleased with some other developments. Flaherty’s fastball velocity is up. He averaged 95 mph in one start with a max speed of 96.7 mph. (He averaged 93.2 mph for the Cardinals last season, the lowest of his career.)

Here’s Detroit manager A.J. Hinch: “We loved the ingredients. He’s hungry to learn. He came here to help us win. He came here to get better, and he’s attacked it wholeheartedly since the day we signed him. He’s going to really help us.”

What does Hinch like about Flaherty’s pitching?

“(He’ll) show his power and strength, his ability to pitch, and change speeds with both breaking balls.”

Off the field, Flaherty is dating model Natalie Buffett. They revealed their relationship on Instagram during the holiday season. She’s the former girlfriend of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

CHECKING IN ON DREW LOCK

The former Missouri quarterback left Seattle to sign a one-year deal with the New York Giants. Lock will be paid $5 million guaranteed in 2024. Was Lock recruited by the Giants to compete with Daniel Jones for the starting job? Or was Lock brought in just to be a No. 2 QB?

Seahawks GM John Schneider gave his view of the situation. “They basically sold him on the opportunity to compete to be a starter, and he felt like it was the right opportunity,” Schneider told a Seattle radio station. “He looked at Baker Mayfield’s opportunity last year and felt that this could be something similar.”

About the Mayfield angle: The well traveled quarterback signed a one-year deal with Tampa Bay last year and won the starting gig over Kyle Trask, a second-round draft pick in 2021. Baker took advantage of the opportunity to lead the Buccaneers to the NFC South title and a playoff win over Philadelphia before losing to Detroit in the divisional round. Mayfield just signed a three-year deal to remain with Tampa and the contract could be worth as much as $115 million.

Daniel Jones is going into the second season of a four-year, $160 million deal with the Giants. But he’s also coming back from an injury-ravaged season that included a neck injury and a torn ACL. In six starts for the Giants last season Jones threw for only two touchdowns and was intercepted six times. He posted a career-worst 70.5 passer rating. In 60 career games for the Giants, Jones has fumbled the ball 46 times – and the opposing defense recovered 33 of them. Jones also has gotten picked off 40 times in his NY career, but did lead the Giants to a playoff victory in the 2022 season.

Lock, 27, was the 42nd overall choice (selected by Danver) in the 2019 NFL Draft. The Broncos and Seahawks were 9-14 in Lock’s 23 career starts. Overall, Lock has 28 TD passes and 23 interceptions during his four NFL seasons.

FUNGOES

– Good luck to our friend Chris May, the St. Louis U director of athletics. The search for a new men’s basketball coach to replace Travis Ford won’t be easy. These are volatile times in college basketball, and SLU has to convince attractive coaching candidates that the NIL funding and university’s financial backing is up to the changing standards. It can’t be faked. I’m rooting for May to pick a winner. SLU basketball should be much better than it has been. The potential is there.

— It’s long past time for Aaron Rodgers to go away.

– Last season the Cardinals had 60 starts by a pitcher that lasted at least 6 innings. They should do much better in this area in 2024. As I keep saying, when you get a six-inning start (minimum), your team’s chances of winning increase by a surprisingly substantial amount. Last season when the Cardinals got a six-inning start they were 10 games over .500 at 35-25. When they didn’t get a six-inning start, they were THIRTY games under .500.

– Research: last season, when the 30 major-league teams got at least six innings from a starting pitcher, their winning percentage was .644. And when a starter worked fewer than six innings, the winning percentage in those games was .397. And people try to tell me that there’s nothing special about a six-inning start? Good grief.

– Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas and Kyle Gibson will increase the number of six-plus innings starts by the Cardinals in 2024. And a healthy Steven Matz can add to the count.

— As mentioned, the 2023 Cardinals had only 60 starts of six-plus innings. So why do I think that number will rise? This: Mikolas, Gray, Gibson and Lynn combined for 76 starts of six innings or more last year. Matz had four, which brings the total to 80.

– Congratulations on an extraordinary career to Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who was taken 13th overall by the St. Louis Rams in the 2014 NFL Draft. Donald enjoyed his two seasons in St. Louis and made sure to thank the fans here when the franchise relocated to Los Angeles. In his two seasons with St. Louis, Donald was voted NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2014, was named first-team All-Pro in 2015, and was selected to the Pro Bowl in both years.

– I sincerely believe Donald is the best defensive tackle in NFL history, and that’s no hype. He’s decided to retire 10 award-winning seasons in the NFL, and opposing offensive linemen and quarterbacks won’t be crying to see him go. In his 10 seasons Donald made the Pro Bowl every season, was a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and was named first-team All-Pro in eight seasons. He retires with 111 sacks, 176 tackles for losses and 260 quarterback hits. Teams couldn’t block him with one lineman; it took a village of linemen to stop Donald.

– Late in Donald’s rookie season, I said on my radio show that he’d be a Pro Football Hall of Fame player as long as he stayed healthy. And I wasn’t crazy. I really meant it. Donald was absolutely dominant. And one of the hardest things for an NFL team to find is a defensive tackle who can take over a game in both ways: defending the run, and getting to the quarterback with a fast-and-furious inside pass rush that made him unblockable at times.

– My gosh, right-handed pitching prospect Tink Hence has impressive talent. There’s hope for the future. And because of last summer’s offload at the trade deadline, the young pitching in the St. Louis organization is as good as it’s been in a long time.

– I apologize for being positive.

– The Cardinals are fired up by how good Steven Matz looks in spring training. The regular season is the real deal, and Matz has to show he can hold up to make 25+ starts in 2024. But manager Oli Marmol and staff love what they’re seeing from the lefty …

— Once again, I’m sorry for being positive.

– Huge stretch for your St. Louis Blues. Their 3-1 win over the LA Kings began a stretch of The Note playing eight of 10 games at home. After collecting that victory, the Blues will set up at Enterprise Center for seven of the next nine games. St. Louis trails Vegas by six points in the bid for the second wild-card spot in the West.

– The Blues also must get by Minnesota, which is two points above STL in the wild-card standings. That adds extra importance to Saturday’s meeting between the teams at Enterprise. The Blues will also play at Minnesota next Saturday, March 23.

– According to Evolving Hockey, Minnesota currently has a 22.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Blues’ postseason probability is 4.4%. In final regular-season points totals, Evolving Hockey projects 90.4 points for the Wild and 86.5 points for the Blues.

– Milwaukee lost closer Devin Williams who will be out for three months because of stress fractures in his back. That’s a big blow to the Brewers. His absence figures to give the Cardinals, Cubs and Reds an easier chance of winning the NL Central. The Clay Davenport projections give Milwaukee a 19.2 percent chance to win the division.

— San Diego acquired starting pitcher Dylan Cease from the White Sox … and that move will make it more difficult for the Cardinals to grab a wild-card spot. The Padres now have a top-four starter alignment of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Cease and Michael King. The latter, an underrated starter, came over in the trade that sent outfielder Juan Soto to the Yankees.

— Chocolate covered pretzels are the best.

— I watched “Poor Things” and wondered whatever happened to the “X” rating on movies. But Emma Stone absolutely deserved to win the Oscar for best actress. The performance was incredible.

— Whatever happened to Saturday Night Live? Is it still on?

— Kansas City Chiefs GM Brett Veach made a great signing in making a one-year deal with free-agent wide receiver Marquise Brown. For a cost of $11 million guaranteed, Veach upgraded his receiver position. The idea of Brown teaming with promising you wide receiver Rashee Rice is exciting. The Chiefs made a potential high-upside move at minimal risk. With all due respect to Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Brown has never played with a quarterback that comes close to matching the overall talent of Patrick Mahomes.

— My favorite free-agent signing was RB Derrick Henry joining the Baltimore Ravens. Perfect fit.

AS OTHERS SEE US

Award-winning baseball blogger Craig Calcaterra weighed in on the idea of the Cardinals having something of an old-school type of starting rotation because of the group’s capacity to pitch a lot of innings. (At least by today’s standards.) Calcaterra mentioned a Lance Lynn quote that appeared in The Athletic. Ken Rosenthal’s piece put focus on the age of the St. Louis rotation. And Lance Lynn explained why an average starting-pitcher age of 35 can be a good thing.

“Obviously, with the older age, people are going to say certain things,” Lynn told Rosenthal. “But younger guys can’t cover the innings anymore. That’s a proven fact. Because that’s how they’re taught. We were taught differently. That’s why we’re still here.”

Calcaterra’s take?

“I actually hope Lynn is right about that. I love traditional starting pitching,” Calcaterra wrote. “My favorite part of watching baseball games for basically my whole life has been watching the battle between two starting pitchers. The build and the flow of the game as the innings progress and you wonder who will break or tire first.

“It doesn’t even have to be a strong pitcher’s duel between two aces. I just love and understand the game best via 6-7 innings of starting pitching before the bullpens come into play. Though these days I more often have to scratch the itch with five and there’s no guarantee of even that anymore.

“Which is to say that I want the Cardinals’ approach to this season to work. I want to see rotations of four and five established starters without resort to bullpen days or a constant carousel of callups making spot starts. I want Lynn to be right about the older guys simply being better-geared for taking the ball every fifth day and giving their skipper some innings. And no, I don’t care if the numbers or projections back that up as the best approach. I simply want that to happen purely for aesthetic and cosmic purposes particular to my own personal desires.

“But I’m also a jackass blogger, and that part of me is bookmarking this article. Because folks, I am super skeptical that the Space Cowboys approach to pitching is gonna work in 2024 and I feel like Lynn’s quote is gonna look bad in a few months. Though I hope I’m wrong about that, of course.”

Enjoy the weekend …

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. on Friday. Stream it live or grab the show podcast on 590thefan.com or through the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

All stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie Bits! Buzz About Jack Flaherty, Victor Scott II, Aaron Donald, Blues, SLU Hoops, Cards Rotation + Much More. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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(Note: this column has been updated to include the Blues’ win over the Kings on Wednesday at Enterprise Center. The stats have been updated as well.)

The Blues have received championship-caliber goaltending this season. Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have done their part to elevate the team’s opportunity for success, but the other Blues have let them down.

The goaltending excellence has been on display this week. The Blues won their second in a row on Wednesday at Enterprise Center, with Binnington stopping 40 of 41 shots in a 3-1 victory over the LA Kings. This was two nights after Hofer gave up one goal in 27 shots in a 5-1 win at Boston.

In the two-game upturn, Binnington and Hofer combined for a .974 save percentage despite the Blues being outshot 78-52 overall and 38-17 in high-danger chances. The goaltenders stopped 96 percent of the high-danger snipes against them to deny the Bruins and Kings.

Amazing.

When your team can emerge from a demoralizing funk and pocket two straight wins when the opponents control 69 percent of the high-danger shot attempts, then you have something special going on.

Binnington and Hofer are keeping the Blues in the hunt for a Western Conference wild-card spot. They’re only six points out. That said, the odds are against them, with Evolving Hockey giving St. Louis a 3.5 percent shot of qualifying after Wednesday’s success.

Here are some details of the Blues’ wonderful goaltending this season:

I’ll list the St. Louis save percentage and corresponding ranking among the 32 NHL teams. The stats include the latest win.

At 5-on-5 … .920, eighth.

All strengths … .907, seventh.

High-danger save % at 5-on-5 … .831, eighth.

High-danger save % at all strengths … .821, sixth.

— These numbers are especially impressive considering the disparity in shot volume and quality. At all strengths the Blues have had only 43.6 percent of the high-danger shots in their games. That ranks 29th. The rate is even worse (41.7%) at 5-on-5; that ranks 31st. Opponents should be doing a lot more damage to the Blues, but Binnington and Hofer won’t allow it.

— The Blues’ current .921 save rate at 5-on-5 is the same as their .921 mark in the Stanley Cup winning campaign of 2018-2019.

— Since the start of the 2018-19 season and through 2022-23, a total of 54 teams had a .920 save metric or better – and 47 qualified for the playoffs. That’s 87 percent. More proof that the outstanding work being turned in by Binnington and Hofer. Based on recent precedent, the Blues should be a playoff team because of them.

— According to Evolving Hockey’s metric – goals saved above the replacement level – the Blues are sixth best in the league with a GAR of 32.1. The problem? The Blues are near the bottom of the league (28th) in the corresponding metric that assesses the value of a team’s skaters.

— By the way, the Blues’ No. 6 league ranking in goals saved above replacement would be the best by the franchise in a season since 2015-2016.

— According to Evolving Hockey, the Blues should have an expected goals allowed rate of 3.55 per 60 minutes at all strengths. But because of the stellar goaltending, the Blues have actually given up just 3.02 goals per 60.

— Binnington ranks sixth among 43 NHL goaltenders (minimum 1,000 minutes) in goals saved above average at 13.75. Hofer is on the plus side as well (5.86.) And Hofer’s rate is much lower because he hasn’t played as often as Binnington.

— Per Evolving Hockey, Binnington has saved 13.23 goals above average at all strengths. This is his best season since his remarkable emergence as a Stanley Cup champion rookie in 2018-2019. Not even close. After some turbulent seasons following his 2018-2019 rise to instant stardim, Binnington is at that level again this season.

— I’ve used the quality-start metric for years. It gives us a snap-shot look at a goaltender’s consistency. This season Binnington has a QS percentage of 60%, and Hofer isn’t that far behind at 57.1% in quality-start rate. The point? While Binnington is clearly the team’s No. 1 goaltender — and team MVP — there isn’t much of a drop off when Hofer starts instead of Binnington. That’s a big change from last season.

I know I’ve thrown a lot of numbers at you. And the fancy-stat metrics aren’t for everybody. But in a season otherwise filled with frustration, I think it’s important to give praise and spotlight the goaltenders with positive attention. The Blues couldn’t ask for more from Binnington and Hofer. They’re doing all they can to save this team’s season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

All stats used in this column were sourced from Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick.

The post Bernie: Another Win For The Blues. Goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer Are Doing Their Best To Save The Season. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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During the final four days of the NHL’s annual trading-post craze, league franchises moved 59 players and a massive stack of draft choices to in completing 37 transactions.

The Blues did not participate in the swap meet.

Their available merchandise was defective, uninspiring, too costly, or all of the above. General manager Doug Armstrong probably would have made better use of his time by browsing on the Temu app.

The Blues’ absence from the trade-deadline delirium was a confirmation of the obvious: this roster reeks. We can blame the Blues players for the failure, but that’s the easy way out. The players did not draft themselves into the organization or trade themselves to St. Louis. The players do not control the team payroll and make spending decisions. They are here because Blues management wanted them, Invested in them, and overpaid them.

Armstrong was generous to a fault, giving these mopes the courtesy of seven full no-trade protection – and three other players have a limited no-trade shelter. Why would we expect Craig Berube, Drew Bannister or any other coach to motivate a core group that (1) is short on overall talent, (2) financially comfortable, and (3) has the power to block trades?

The Blues can just go lazing about without fear of repercussions. Benchings haven’t worked. They aren’t embarrassed when called out by Armstrong. Putting them through punishing “bag” skates – as Bannister did on Friday in New Jersey – has no effect. Bannister used that traditional message-sending drill in an attempt to get the players’ attention. Their response? Nothing. Just another abysmal effort and a 4-0 loss to the NY Rangers.

The fellas are lazing about. These handsome men of wealth have healthy bank accounts but struggle to deposit goals in the opponent’s net.

Here’s what the Blues have looked like during their recent work stoppage that’s left them sputtering with a 3-7-1 record in the last 11 games.

The plunge began with a no-compete 5-2 loss at home to Nashville on Feb. 17.

Starting there …

* The Blues are 1-5-1 on the road and do not have a single third-period goal in the seven away games. No fight. No mas. They don’t show up ready to go and don’t exactly storm the ramparts to make a comeback.

* In the 1-5-1 road wreck, the Blues have been outscored 19-3 in the first and third periods combined. Including the four contests at Enterprise Center, the Blues have been outscored 26-9 in the first-and-third periods.

* The Blues have scored the fewest five-on-five goals (12) in the NHL since Feb. 17. They’ve been outscored by 10 goals at five-on-five, and by 15 goals overall. They’ve averaged only 1.35 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the worst rate in the league over that time. Their expected goal-share at five-on-five (37.7%) is last in the league.

* The Blues have been held to two or fewer goals in nine of the 11 tests. Part of the reason is a faltering power play that’s converted five of 35 opportunities (14 percent) over the last 11 games.

* When the Blues are playing at five-on-five, Pavel Buchnevich has scored four times during the 3-7-1 downturn. The other 11 Blues forwards have combined for eight goals in the last 11 at five-on-five.

* Staying with five-on-five statistics over the last 11 games, Nathan Walker has as many goals (1) as Jordan Kyrou and one more than Robert Thomas (0).

* Captain Brayden Schenn hasn’t scored a five-on-five goal since Jan. 9. That’s 25 games ago. In the last 25 games Schenn has no goals and only 15 shots on goal in 320 minutes and 31 seconds at five-on-five. And Schenn’s overall scoreless streak has stretched to 16 games.

* During the 3-7-1 collapse, no Blues defenseman has scored a goal at five-on-five. With Tory Krug on the ice at five-on-five the Blues have been outscored 9-2 in the last 11 games.

Kudos to No. 1 goaltender Jordan Binnington. He’s been the only true bright spot during this lousy time. Binnington has done just about everything possible to prevent the landslide.

In his seven starts during his team’s 3-7-1 depreciation, Binnington has come up with an exceptional .944 save percentage at five-on-five. Over the last 11 games. Binnington’s save rate on slot shots is a remarkable .897 at five-on-five, and .845 at all strengths. Simply tremendous, but Binnington can’t do this alone.

The Blues close their five-game road trip on Monday night at Boston. The visit will bring back fond memories of Game 7 on June 12, 2019. But only six players remain from the postseason roster that seized the only Stanley Cup triumph in franchise history: Binnington, Schenn, Thomas, Colton Parayko, Sammy Blais and Oskar Sundqvist. Kyrou, a lad of 20, played 16 regular-season games for the Blues in 2018-2019 but wasn’t used in the playoffs.

Back then the team song was “Gloria.”

These days, the appropriate team soundtrack would be “Take It Easy” by the Eagles.

The new-coach jolt has faded. The Blues have a better overall record (19-15-2) since the coaching change, but take a closer look. After speeding out to a hopeful 15-7-1 restart in Bannister’s first 23 games, the Blues have slowed to 4-8-1 in their last 13 and gotten outscored 43-28.

Evolving Hockey projects the Blues to finish with 84 points and out of the playoffs for a second consecutive season. Their postseason probability is down to 2.1 percent, with only Arizona, Chicago, Anaheim and San Jose sitting more hopeless among Western Conference members.

This isn’t on Bannister. It wasn’t on Berube. All of the responsibility lands in Armstrong’s office because these are his players, and they signed contract extensions that he negotiated. It was an Armstrong-directed hockey operation in 2019, and he richly deserved all of the credit that came his way. But this is a different time, and a different team. It’s a long way down from Armstrong’s peak. He knows this and owns this.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in this column were sourced from Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

The post Bernie: The Blues Won’t Rise Above Mediocrity Unless Doug Armstrong Produces A Better, Intelligently Funded Roster. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BERNIE BITS!

It happened early this time. As usual, the Cardinals have a preposterously rickety outfield carousel that keeps spinning, breaking down, and causing problems.

Tommy Edman’s left wrist isn’t cooperating, so he’s been categorized as doubtful for the regular-season opener. There’s no way to know, with certainty, the return date for the Cardinals’ center fielder. And when Edman is cleared to play … will he really be ready to play? This is what happened when you let a guy play for the final two months of a lost season instead of having wrist surgery earlier to get 100 percent prepared for 2024.

Another starting outfielder, Lars Nootbaar, is hurt again. In the news relayed by president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, Nootbaar has been diagnosed with two non-displaced fractures in his ribs. This doesn’t sound like a quick-heal deal. Nootbaar will likely be down for a while.

That leaves only one designated starter, right fielder Jordan Walker, who is spending time on the field and in the batter’s box instead of hanging out with doctors and having a Gatorade around an MRI machine. Please be careful, JW.

I’d be happy to talk about what this outfield will look like three weeks from now, but that leaves too much time for a new injury-related accident. But Dylan Carson will have a spot. He hasn’t homered in a real game since June 20, 2023. Through Thursday, Carlson was batting .111 in exhibition play with five strikeouts in 18 at-bats. I’m excited. How about you?

With this new wave of outfield trauma, Alec Burleson can’t be commissioned to Triple A Memphis just yet. And the big Carolinian was making a case for himself by going 7 for 18 in exhibition at-bats through Thursday.

“He’s had a very impressive camp, for sure, and we’re happy for him,” Cardinals president of baseball ops John Mozeliak told reporters in Jupiter. “He’s probably going to get more of an opportunity now given the injuries that we have.”

Can the Cardinals call Boston and get Tyler O’Neill back? No, that wouldn’t work. The weightlifter isn’t available right now because he’s been sidelined with “left calf tightness.” But of course he is.

Center field prospect Victor Scott II? Probably too soon. But he’s certainly getting a chance to showcase his talent.

Brendan Donovan? The Cardinals seemingly are reluctant to put him out in left field to make throws that could stress his surgically repaired throwing elbow. Donovan says it isn’t a problem. We’ll see.

Who would have guessed that we’d be talking about Michael Siani as an outfield contributor?

Y’all can try to figure this out. Trying to solve the annual outfield puzzle can cause headaches that require medical attention, and I don’t want to go on my own IL.

Since the start of the 2018 season the Cardinals have lost outfielders for a total of 927 in-season days. That number would be higher if we included Justin Williams, who missed 199 days in 2019. Though Williams was on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster, he hadn’t graduated to the major-league club.

Since the start of the 2021 season St. Louis outfielders have lost 840 in-season days to injury. The Injured List All-Stars include O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Nootbaar and Carlson. The four combined for 414 in-season days missed over the three seasons.

Make no mistake about it, O’Neill is still the champion of the trainer’s room. The medics may have a monument to him in there. But he’s with the Red Sox and will have to give up the title belt. Unfortunately, it appears that Nootbaar is trying to move up in the rankings. He missed 49 days in 2023 … and now this. But Carlson – 118 days missed over the past three seasons – is currently ranked No. 1.

The Cardinals lost 91 games last season.

It isn’t supposed to be easy to recover from that. But why does it always have to be so difficult with the Cardinals’ attempts to come up with a good – and available – outfield set? The 2024 opening day lineup will not include Nootbaar or Edman.

“Not ideal,” Mozeliak told reporters. “The level of concern is real. But you always have to remind yourself that (opening day) isn’t the entire season.”

The early-season look: Burleson in left, Carlson in center, Walker in right and Siani as the fourth outfielder.

Here are the potential alignments cited by STLtoday’s Derrick Goold:

Burleson-Carlson-Walker
Carlson-Scott II-Walker
Donovan-Carlson-Walker
Donovan-Scott II-Walker
Burleson-Scott II-Walker

QUIET DAY FOR THE BLUES

Pavel Buchnevich is still a Blue. That’s good because he’s their best all-around player. That could be bad, because he can leave after next season to find his free-agent treasure. Or he could be traded before then. But not now. That immediate opportunity has passed. Or hopefully, “Booch” and the Blues will agree on a contract extension, but I don’t know how to handicap that.

And so it continues.

The Blues’ status is fuzzy. Their identity is blurry. They aren’t a horrible team. They aren’t a good team. They are not a contender for the Stanley Cup. They are not a contender for the No. 1 overall draft choice.

The Blues don’t spend to the max … but don’t have much cap space. Flexibility is limited because their underachieving roster is knotted and tangled and loaded down with seven full no-trade contracts and three modified no-trade agreements. According to The Athletic, STL’s seven full no-trade agreements are the most of any NHL team.

Why did the front office hand out no-trade contracts like styrofoam cups of locker-room coffee? What was the value of locking down the services of multiple mediocre players?

Blues ownership-management likes to declare how they refuse to put the fans through a painful ordeal of a rebuild. OK, so where are the Blues right now? What the heck is this?

A busy-bee trade deadline just passed — with teams going into whirlwind mode to making a storm of aggressive moves — but none of the other 31 NHL clubs wanted to give up anything for a Blues player. (Other than Buchnevich.) What does that say about the quality of your roster?

Since the start of last season the Blues rank 24th in the NHL in points-earned percentage and are 25th in the share (47.6%) of even-strength goals.

The Blues are on the way to missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season. I don’t know about next season, but a failure to make the postseason for the third straight year is certainly a possibility. This franchise has won a single playoff series – one – since seizing the Stanley Cup in 2019. I’m not sure why the people who run the team seem to believe that sustained mediocrity is acceptable. Call it what you want — retool, soft rebuild, rebuild, blah blah blah. But this hockey team went into reverse and is lurching into neutral.

KEVIN DEMOFF, MOGUL

Kevin has come a long way since 2009, when Rams president John Shaw hired Demoff as a personal favor to a friend. Not only does Demoff continue to survive – he’s thriving. This is what can happen if you are (1) have mastered the art of smooching the right hind quarters, (2) can effectively tell fibs and con the media to create a phony nice-guy image, and (3) assist owner Stan Kroenke in facilitating the Rams’ move to Los Angeles in a corrupt relocation process that eventually cost the NFL (and Rams) nearly $1 billion to make a lawsuit go away.

In case you missed it, Demoff was promoted to president of team and media operations at Kroenke Sports and Entertainment (KSE). Demoff will supervise operations of the Rams (NFL), NBA Denver Nuggets, NHL Colorado Avalanche, MLS Colorado Rapids and the NLL Colorado Mammoth. (NLL is a lacrosse league.)

Demoff, 47, has served as Kroenke’s bag carrier for 15 years. He will report to Josh Kroenke, Stan’s son and the former Mizzou basketball player. Demoff will also oversee KSE Media properties including Altitude Sports and Entertainment, KSE Radio, and Outdoor Sportsman Group.

“Everybody on our leadership team, they are ready to handle more workload,” Demoff told reporters on a video call this week. “It’s our job to grow them as well. I’m excited to see them take a step up and really understand how we can make this happen. From my perspective, as a good leader this is a great opportunity for our bench to come alive. If we do this right, our entire organization gets stronger. Nothing gets weaker. All of the teams will benefit.”

This is like an NFL-style Godfather movie.

But in this instance, Fredo was a big winner.

The 2015 MLB SEASON: A HELLUVA YEAR

First of all, a big hat tip to the fine Fansided baseball writer Thomas Gauvain for making us aware of this. I’m just following up on his work. I couldn’t resist because this is interesting, humorous and weird.

What’s old is new again … if not necessarily young again.

Or something like that.

In 2015 the Cardinals won 100 games and the NL Central title. Two of their key players that season were starting pitcher Lance Lynn (age 28) and third baseman Matt Carpenter (29.)

Some of baseball’s emerging stars could be found in Arizona (Paul Goldschmidt), San Francisco (Brandon Crawford), Colorado (Nolan Arenado) and Oakland (Sonny Gray.)

That season Goldschmidt finished second in the National League MVP voting. Gray, 25, was third in the American League Cy Young balloting.

Arenado and Carpenter also received votes for NL MVP. Four of the guys — Crawford, Goldschmidt, Arenado and Gray – were chosen for the All-Star Game. There were other awards which we’ll get to in a few.

Lynn didn’t receive any honors, but the 2015 Cardinals won 17 of his starts. He gave them 175 innings and a 3.03 ERA. And with the Cardinals trying to hold off the Pirates (98 wins) and Cubs (97 wins) in the NL Central, Lynn stepped up in his final three starts to allow only one run in 16 innings.

That season the six players collectively produced 31 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for their teams.

Think about the infield you could have put together in 2015: Goldschmidt at first Carpenter at second base, Arenado at third, and Crawford at shortstop. Carpenter mostly played third base for the Cardinals that year, but for our purposes here he’s a second baseman.

This infield alignment combined for 124 homers, 158 doubles, 419 RBI, 368 runs scored, three Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers in 2015. Arenado led the league in homers (42) and RBI (130). Goldschmidt had a 1.005 OPS. Carpenter led the league with 44 doubles. The four infielders accrued 21.3 WAR.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has put the 2015 band back together for 2023.

In 2015, the six players had an average age of 26.8 years.

And now the six are teammates in St. Louis for 2023 and have an average age of 35.6 years.

The Las Vegas oddsmakers have installed the 2023 Cardinals as favorites to win the 2015 NL Central.

Hey, Zack Greinke is still out there. He went 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA for the Dodgers in 2015. Give him a call, Mo!

THIS JUST IN: PITCHERS GET HURT

Imagine that. OK, let’s gain some actual knowledge from Baseball Prospectus: “We’ve shown that while pitchers get hurt more often than hitters, they also get hurt worse. Hitters spent 13,142 days on the injured list last year. Pitchers lost 32,107 days. Pitchers got hurt 41% more often but spent 144% more days rehabbing. To put it another way, pitchers accounted for 59% of injured list stints but 71% of days spent on the IL.”

But what about the Age Factor?

Baseball Prospectus had other helpful, research-based notes. The simple conclusion: “The slope of the trendline is downward—the older the pitching staff, the fewer injuries. Why should older pitchers fare better? Among the nine teams with pitchers missing 700 or fewer games in 2023 were Blue Jays (third-oldest pitching staff), Giants (fifth), Phillies (eighth), Cardinals (ninth oldest), and White Sox and Astros (tied for 13th).”

The Cardinals had one of MLB’s oldest pitching groups in 2023. But 21 teams had more pitcher days lost to injury than St. Louis. If you listen to Cardinals fans and some in the local baseball media, you will hear how this team’s older rotation is a reason to fear some kind of ungodly disaster for the second straight season. These old guys will be walking with crutches by June! (Not really. Kidding.)

Assuming the worst. Yeah. Just because of age. With nothing else to back it up. Hey, I’ve been guilty of doing this … but just a little. But I feared I was jumping to conclusions, so I’ve been looking for more information. Media-driven narratives can be unreliable.

From Baseball Prospectus:

“Of the 29 MLB pitchers to undergo Tommy John surgery last year, six were in their Age 25 or younger season. Another 16 were between 26 and 29. Only seven of the 29 were in their thirties. By the time a pitcher reaches 30, it stands to reason, he’s proved himself to be durable, already had major surgery, or has had his career ended by injury or ineffectiveness, it would seem. Older pitchers, we showed previously, may get hurt more often. But they don’t get hurt as badly.”

JORDAN MONTGOMERY, SIGH …

ESPN’s Buster Olney got some of the Best Fans In Baseball a little fired up this week. Speaking on the Michael Kay Show in New York, Olney said free-agent starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery has a preference to pitch in “smaller markets like Texas and like St. Louis.” This one comment, which was outdated and lacked context, led to the usual overreaction. Montgomery is back in play for St. Louis! Not so fast.

According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals currently have a 40-man competitive-balance tax payroll of $215.362 million – easily the largest in franchise history. The luxury-tax threshold for this season is $237 million. Unless Montgomery (or Blake Snell) are willing to pitch in St. Louis for really short money, making a deal would almost certainly take the Cardinals past the 40-man CBT boundary that this franchise won’t cross. There’s one thing I know for sure: chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. isn’t going to do that.

Just so we understand each other … of course I’d like to see Montgomery return to the Cardinals. Of course he would make the team’s starting pitching better and reinforce the rotation’s stability. But wanting it to happen … and believing it will happen … are two entirely different things.

JAYSON TATUM: NOT CLUTCH?

Here at the Bits Desk, we like to make frequent check-ins on Boston’s star forward and native St. Louisan. Tatum is one of the best basketball players in the world. Since drafting Tatum with the third overall selection in 2017, the Celtics have the NBA’s second best winning percentage (.644) during the regular season and are tied with Golden State for the most postseason wins (52.) Tatum, who just turned 26, already is a five-time All-Star and a three-time All-NBA selection.

But NBA analysts have pointed to a serious flaw: clutch-time shooting. The topic came up again earlier this week when Tatum took (and missed) a low-percentage fadeaway shot instead of driving to the basket in the final seconds of a terrible loss at Cleveland. The Celtics blew a 22-point lead in the fourth quarter.

This season Tatum has made 15 of 47 shots from the floor in clutch-time situations. And his shooting percentage (31.9%) in the clutch ranks 26th among 27 NBA players that have attempted at least 45 shots. Unfortunately this isn’t a new trend; Tatum has the NBA’s lowest “clutch” shooting percentage over the last three seasons among players that have taken at least 100 shots.

The Celtics (48-14) are having a fantastic season but go into the weekend having lost two consecutive games for the first time since early November.

It’s a championship-or-bust type of season for Boston. The Celtics have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals five times since the 2016-17 season and are 1-4 in those big-test showdowns. In the 2021 NBA Finals, the Celtics had a 2-1 series lead before dropping three in a row to Golden State. In the three straight losses Tatum shot 39 percent from the floor and committed 15 turnovers.

How far can the Celtics go when the 2024 postseason gets underway?

“If they don’t win the championship this year, it would be a total gag job,” Charles Barkley said of Tatum’s team on TNT.

FUNGOES

– Jordan Kyrou = Colby Rasmus. Just a thought. At least for now.

– The Cardinals are to outfielders what the Blues are to defensemen. Just can’t seem to get it right.

– Someone please give Bradley Cooper an Oscar. He was exceptional in “Maestro.” He worked hard in his portrayal of conductor-composer Leonard Bernstein. He’s worked even harder in the Oscar campaign.

– The Bleachers have a new album out. It’s good. You have to appreciate a band that was inspired by the films of John Hughes.

– Is anyone surprised to see the Blues’ TV ratings down by 18 percent this season, as Dan Caesar reported at STLtoday? Darren Pang leaving for Chicago was the biggest loss for the franchise since the Blues let Alex Pietrangelo walk to the Vegas Golden Knights.

– Good luck in another Stanley Cup run for our town’s Pat Maroon, 35 years old but young at heart – especially at this time of year. The Boston Bruins acquired the Maroon from Minnesota on Friday. Does the good-luck charm still work? Maroon won the Stanley Cup in three consecutive seasons: the Blues in 2019, followed by back-to-back Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Maroon – bothered by a back injury – appeared in only 49 games for the Wild this season.

— Acclaimed baseball analyst Clay Davenport’s projection model currently has the Cardinals and Cubs atop the NL Central with 85-77 records.

— After scoring four goals over a five-game stretch in late January, Blues captain Brayden Schenn has gone 15 consecutive games without a goal … through Thursday Schenn had only seven 5-on-5 goals in 63 games this season …

— Appearing on Thursday’s “Foul Territory” show on YouTube, Sonny Gray said he chose the Cardinals over the Reds and Diamondbacks. STL signed Gray to a three-year, $75 million deal …

— Matt Carpenter was also a guest on Foul Territory. He was asked about his leadership role on the 2024 team. “You know what, I’m here for one to show these young guys what it’s like to be a Cardinal and how to be a professional and obviously win ball games,” Carpenter said. “But you know, still when I get my name called (then) be ready to compete and hopefully compete at a high level and bring some kind of value on the field as well.”

READING IS FUN!

— Will Leitch made his choice for the Cardinals most irreplaceable player for 2024: Nolan Arenado.

“Arenado had a down year by his standards last year, but he was still terrific compared to most third basemen,” Leitch wrote at MLB.com. “He is at a pivotal juncture of his Cardinals career, a veteran bridge to a generation of young players who look up to him, as a leader and a star. Without him, the Cardinals would feel like they have a big hole at their center.”

— ESPN’s David Schoenfield gave the Cardinals a C+ for their final offseason grade. “The Cardinals had a glaring area to fix and did it, more or less, in typical Cardinals fashion: by being responsible and not getting silly with the payroll. It’s also not super exciting, although we’ll see if Sonny Gray can match last year’s 184 innings after averaging 128 over 2021-22. (He’s already hurt this spring.) They didn’t do anything on the offensive side, however, despite finishing 10th in the NL in runs. That means along with the three 30-something pitchers they signed, the keys to a successful 2024 may be two more 30-somethings, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, hitting more like they did in 2022.”

— A prominent sportsbook has the 2024 Cardinals’ over/under win total at 84.5, and Jim Bowden (The Athletic), isn’t buying the over.

“Sometimes the sportsbooks give signings and trade additions more weight than they should, and I think the Cardinals’ odds are an example of that,” Bowden wrote. “Believing the Cardinals will go from 71 wins to NL Central champs largely because they signed a trio of veteran starters — Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson — doesn’t make sense. The Cardinals now have a starting rotation with an average age of 35, which normally doesn’t end well. I agree they’ll be improved but not enough for a 14-game differential from last year, which is what it will take to beat the over/under. I see 80 to 84 wins, maximum, for this team.”

Thanks for reading …

Pardon my typos …

And have a nice weekend.

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

The post BERNIE BITS! Outfield Injuries For Cardinals, Quiet-Mediocre Blues, It’s 2015 Again, Age & Pitching — And ‘Fredo’ Demoff Wins. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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The Blues are out of town for a five-game road trip, and they could return to St. Louis as a different team. Their playoff hopes could be alive, if not well. Or a dead-end journey could all but seal their demise. This is a middle-pack team but the stakes are high.

The Blues are traveling east, with games at Philadelphia, the NY Islanders, New Jersey, the NY Rangers and Boston. By the time their trek ends, the Blues could definitely be taking a sharp turn south … at least in the Western Conference wild-card standings.

+ Going into Monday night’s game at Philadelphia, the Blues have a 5.7 percent chance to clutch and grab a playoff spot. That’s according to MoneyPuck. But if the Blues lose to the Flyers in regulation, their playoff probability drops to 3.8 percent.

+ The Blue begin the roadie with a seven-point deficit in the wild-card race. Los Angeles and Nashville each have 72 points, with the Blues and Calgary both lodged at 65. Minnesota (64) and Seattle (63) are within breathing distance.

+ Adding to the difficulty: teams the Blues are trying to catch or hold off are running hot right now. LA is 9-4 in the last 13 games. Nashville has won eight straight. Calgary has rolled to five consecutive wins. Minnesota has cooled (1-3 in the last four) after a feisty 8-2-1 stretch. And Seattle has rebounded from a slump to go 5-2-1 in its last eight.

+ The Blues recovered nicely from an 0-2-1 downturn to defeat Minnesota 3-1 on Saturday at Enterprise Center, but they can’t afford to keep slipping. By the time the east-coast haul concludes, the Blues will have only 17 regular-season games left on the schedule, with 11 on home ice.

So there’s a chance? Mathematically, yes. But let’s talk after next Monday’s game at Boston that will close out a stretch of playing eight of nine games away from St. Louis. The Blues leveled off to a 5-6-1 mark in their last 12 since through a five-game win streak. If the Blues mosey their way through more up-and-down phases of inconsistency, then forget about the postseason. It’ll almost be time for the offseason.

As Jake Neighbours stressed to the Blues’ media after Saturday’s important victory: “Every point from here on out is extremely important if you want to get into the playoffs, especially how tight the race is right now.”

Adding to the drama is Friday’s NHL trade deadline at 2 p.m. St. Louis time. A flurry of moves is expected – as always in the frenetic NHL – but it would likely be a quiet milepost for the Blues unless GM Doug Armstrong receives a bountiful, irresistible offer for forward Pavel Buchnevich.

The high-value asset had produced 80 goals and 111 assists in 194 games with St. Louis. Approaching his 29th birthday, Buchnevich has a season remaining on his contract, and that only adds to his appeal for potential trade partners. Buchnevich gets bonus points for being an edgy, hard-wired competitor that’s effective on special teams. Among 245 NHL forwards that have played at least 2,500 minutes over the last three seasons, Buchnevich ranks 36th with a rate of 3.09 points per 60 minutes.

“This feels like a situation where Armstrong doesn’t need to move off a high price, and if no one offers one, he can decide whether he wants to revisit it this summer,” wrote Pierre LeBrun at The Athletic. “But I don’t think Armstrong thinks he needs to reduce the price one bit this week for a very productive player who he’s just as happy to keep.”

If Armstrong holds out for an exorbitant exchange rate for making a Buchnevich deal, interested parties may conclude it makes more sense to pursue a walk-year rental forward at a lower price rather than go all-in to accommodate the Blues.

If Armstrong lacks confidence in the team’s chance to get the star player signed to a contract extension, no problem. The Blues could place Buchnevich on the trade market this summer. Friday’s trade deadline is just one checkpoint for the Blues-Booch. For teams interested in having a full season of Buchnevich, there could be another opportunity to get something done before he enters the final season of his Blues contract. This is the maximum time for trading him; the team that lands him can have Buchnevich in place for two postseason runs. If the Blues decide to entertain offers this coming summer, a team that acquires Buchnevich would have him for one postseason shot.

Perhaps Armstrong can offload a regrettable defenseman – or, more to the point, a defenseman’s lamentable contract. But that’s probably a preposterous Fantasy Island scenario. (Remember that show, boomers?)

The Blues are in this jam because of a payroll predicament caused by the frequent overspending on average/mediocre players that now clog up the roster. The Blues have a lot to untangle, and one trade won’t do it.

If the Blues fail to make the playoffs, it would be the second exclusion in a row. Since the start of the 2022-2023 season St. Louis ranks 23rd in the NHL with a points-earned percentage of .514. This soft rebuild is hard work.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

All stats used in this hockey column were sources from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.

The post Bernie On The Blues: Big Road Trip. Last Call For The Playoffs. The NHL Trade Deadline Is Near. Drama! appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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It’s Friday afternoon … which means it is time for

BERNIE BITS

Hitting some fungoes …

— Sure, the Blues should deal Pavel Buchnevich at the NHL trade deadline if (a) they receive an attractive offer, and (b) they aren’t fully confident about signing Buchnevich to a contract extension that goes beyond next season. Or I guess (c) the Blues can be delusional if they’d like. Buchnevich turns 29 in April. If the Blues sign him to an exorbitant long-term contract, GM Doug Armstrong will add yet another big contract the Blues will regret as Buchnevich ages.

— Since the calendar turned to 2024, Missouri and St. Louis U have a combined 3-27 record in men’s college basketball. Good grief. And all three wins were notched by SLU. (Bragging rights?) Missouri is 0-15 in the new year.

— Guilty pleasure: the second season of Tokyo Vice on MAX.

— Current albums of choice: “Daniel,” the new release from Real Estate … “Polaroid Lovers” the new release by Sarah Jarosz … I’m going through a Marvin Gaye phase … my Brian Wilson playlist is getting a workout.

— This is scenario is highly unlikely, but … if Tommy Edman (wrist) isn’t a full go early in the regular season, I want Victor Scott in center field.

— Latest food-craving happiness: banana and peanut butter protein shakes. Just one a day. Hey, it’s healthier than a bag of chips.

— Reason I stayed up so late the last couple of nights: watching the “best of” the late comedian/actor Richard Lewis on David Letterman. A lot of great stuff can be found on Lewis on YouTube. This neurotic loved Lewis the neurotic on the late-night shows.

— Did any of you watch the Big 10 men’s basketball game between Minnesota and Illinois this week? The Illini won 105-97. The teams combined to make 60.6 percent of their shots from the field including 54.5% from three-point distance. There were only nine turnovers (total) in 40 minutes of play. No defense. It was an ABA game! Coach Brad Underwood’s team is talented and wonderfully entertaining, but I’m fretting over the Illini’s defense. Illinois has allowed at least 80 points in six of its last seven games. And according to the metrics at Bart Torvik, Illinois ranks last in the conference and No. 265 nationally defensive efficiency since Feb. 4. The good news? The Illini are ranked No. 1 in the conference and No. 1 in the nation in offensive efficiency over the same stretch of games. Bring back those red-white-blue ABA basketballs for the Illini!

— I’m feeling it more and more … pitching prospect Gordon Graceffo will be a surprise for the Cardinals in 2024. He’s healthy and throwing at full throttle.

— If there’s no room for him on the opening 26-man roster, Alec Burleson will not go down quietly.

— Happy birthday (Saturday March 2) to Adolis Garcia, Johan Oviedo, Bud Norris, Wilking Rodriguez, Ron Gant, and Junior Fernandez. And also to the late Mort Cooper, the outstanding pitcher who was posthumously inducted into the Cardinals Hall of Fame in 2019.

DEEP CUTS

SIX INNINGS. A BIG KEY TO SUCCESS: Last season the Cardinals had a starting pitcher go six innings or more in 60 games. The team had a .583 winning percentage in those starts. When a starter lasted fewer than six innings in a start, the team’s winning percentage was .353. The 2024 rotation has four pitchers that combined for 76 starts of 6+ innings last season: Miles Mikolas (21), Sonny Gray (19), Kyle Gibson (19) and Lance Lynn (17). When the foursome provided at least six innings in an assignment, their teams went 47-29 for a .618 winning percentage. The 2023 Cardinals did well when Mikolas and other STL starters pushed through six innings or deeper. But the Redbirds didn’t have enough of those starts.

That should change – significantly – in 2024. If Mikolas, Gray, Gibson and Lynn can match their2023 totals of 6+ starts, the 2024 Cardinals would already have 16 more 6+ inning starts than they did a year ago. And that doesn’t include Steven Matz, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore or others who start games for St. Louis this coming season.

Last season the 12 major-league teams that qualified for the playoffs averaged 72 starts of 6+ innings and had a .692 winning percentage in those games. As we mentioned the Cardinals now have four starters in place who combined for 76 starts of 6+ innings last season. That’s meaningful.

BLUE NOTE$: Blues captain Brayden Schenn didn’t score a goal during the first 11 games of the season. He later went 16 consecutive games without scoring, a cold streak that lasted a month and ended Jan. 6. Schenn is now stuck in another rut, with no goals in 11 straight games. For Schenn, that’s three different scoreless streaks of 11 games or more this season. He’s averaged 0.59 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons. Schenn, 32, is making $8 million this season. And starting next season, he’ll be paid $30.8 million over the next four seasons, through the 2027-2028 campaign. Schenn will be 36 in the final season of his contract …

Through Thursday night, 3,063 goals had been scored in the NHL since Dec. 19. Blues forward Kevin Hayes has one of them. He’s banked one goal in his last 29 games. He has only two goals in 30 road games and his last road goal came way back on Nov. 26. The Blues are paying Hayes $6.5 million this season and will owe him $8 million (total) over the next two seasons. Nice.

THE VALUE OF LEADERSHIP: The Cardinals wanted to put better leadership in the clubhouse after last season’s smashup. They did something about it by adding respected leaders Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford to the roster. How important is leadership at the player level?

“Some of it is organic, but ultimately player-driven teams are the best teams in my opinion,” first-year Cubs manager Craig Counsell said.

Counsell should know. As Milwaukee’s manager his underfunded Brewers won more regular-season games than the division-rival Cardinals and Cubs from 2017 through 2023.

Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson had a lot of good things to say on the subject based on his experiences in Atlanta and Chicago.

“All good teams have a very close bond and are able to develop relationships,” Swanson told The Athletic “It’s an ever-evolving thing. You could have the exact same team but there’s still so much growth and development. Guys are at different points in their lives. Guys may be in a contract year, first-year arbitration, first full year in the big leagues or myself, eighth season. It’s almost like in marriage. You’re not trying to recapture something, you’re evolving together. That’s how I see a team. Everyone is in a different spot and we’re all here to get better and become the best we can be as a group.”

BEST MISSOURI QUARTERBACKS? In his ranking of the Top 80 college football quarterbacks, ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s list included two Mizzou QBs: Brad Smith at No. 72, and Chase Daniel at No. 39. “One of the most accurate spread quarterbacks of his era, Daniel drove Mizzou to a brief No. 1-ranking for just the second time ever, finished fourth in the 2007 Heisman voting and delivered a top-five finish and two division titles for a program starving for such success,” … Connelly’s top five: Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (1), Auburn’s Cam Newton (2), Texas’ Vince Young (3), Florida’s Tim Tebow (4) and LSU’s Joe Burrow (5) … former St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford – the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft – was 15th in the Connelly rankings.

DOOM AND GLOOM! MLB.com doesn’t think much of the Cardinals’ planned 2024 rotation. On a scale of 1-to-10 writer Brian Murphy gave the Cardinals a high concern level of 9. The usual surface-level logic applied.

“The Cardinals’ starters turned in a 5.08 ERA last season, the franchise’s highest since 1913 when earned runs became an official stat in both leagues,” Murphy wrote. “The club responded by overhauling the look of its rotation, signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. But it’s fair to wonder if this group will be good enough for the Cards to win their division as FanGraphs projects. Lynn, Gibson and Miles Mikolas — all of whom are at least 35 years old — had an expected ERA of 4.80 or worse last year.” … Murphy also worries over Gray’s capability of repeating his strong 2023 season at age 34.”

In Murphy’s defense, FanGraphs projects 11.7 WAR for St. Louis starting pitching in 2024 which ranks 21st among the 30 teams. On the other hand, the ZiPS forecast has all four of the five declared STL starters pitching to a lower ERA in 2024. The only exception is Matz, but the slight projected increase isn’t anything worth talking about. The projected average ERA of the five starters is 4.17. That would have ranked 12th in the majors in 2023. The top priority is innings, and four of the five should provide that. With Matz it’s a question of health but the Cardinals (and Matz) are taking a smarter approach this spring.

I suppose I’m one of the few optimists out here who believes the Cardinals rotation will exceed expectations in 2024. They’ll be solid. But yeah, I agree, that blows up if injuries tear this rotation apart. That’s always a concern. And it also applies to all 30 teams.

Last season pitchers age 34 through 38 made a combined 465 starts and lasted at least five innings in 75 percent of their outings. And the old guys covered at least six innings in 45.3% of their starts.

WATCH THE CARDINALS: This, from David Schoenfield of ESPN: “Keep an eye on: St. Louis Cardinals. Coming off their first losing season since 2007, the Cardinals aren’t exactly a deep sleeper, but improving from 71 wins to the playoffs is no easy task, no matter your franchise history. Jordan Walker is an obvious breakout candidate after a solid rookie season, if he can learn to tap into his raw power and clean up his atrocious defense in right field. Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn is a work in progress at the plate, but he’ll improve the team’s defense. And don’t be surprised if Lars Nootbaar finally puts it all together and improves from 3.3 WAR to the 5.0 range.”

OBLIGATORY UPDATE ON TYLER O’NEILL: The former Cardinals outfielder is settling in during his first camp with the Boston Red Sox. “He moves in the outfield,” manager Alex Cora told reporters. “He brings an edge to the lineup,” … Red Sox media are asking O’Neill a lot of questions about his passion for weight lifting and his extensive list of injuries. “You live and you learn,” O’Neill said. “I can’t get away from the weight room. It’s who I am. It’s my identity. I need to be in there. It gets me right. It gets me going. But as you get a little older, things have to be modified. You can’t just go in there and lift heavy anymore like I used to,” … through Thursday, O’Neill had two hits in nine at-bats with a walk, two strikeouts and three runs scored.

TOOTING FOR NOOT: Ryan Boyer of Baseball Prospectus put Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar on his short list of top rebound candidates for 2024. “Nootbaar was a popular breakout pick heading into last season, which may be why his year felt like a bit of a letdown,” Boyer wrote. “The batted-ball data clearly took a step back … he also struggled to stay healthy, making three separate trips to the injured list with thumb, back and groin issues.

“Still, I can’t help but feel there could be more in the tank from Nootbaar,” Boyer continued. “He has an elite command of the strike zone, boasting a walk rate in the 95th percentile, a whiff rate in the 88th percentile and a chase rate in the 98th percentile. He also showed in 2022 that he is capable of well above average quality of contact. That all regressed in 2023, and so did his flyball rate and pull rate … Nootbaar is probably never going to be a prolific power hitter, but he was on roughly a 20-homer pace for a full season in 2023 and that’s with a downturn in batted-ball data. If he can stay healthy in 2024 and his quality of contact returns at least close to 2022 levels, 25-plus dingers seems well within reach. Nootbaar would also be a candidate for 100-plus runs scored if he hits in the top-third of the Cardinals’ batting order.”

J. TATUM CHECK-IN: Our Town’s Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics are having one of the most dominant regular seasons in franchise history. They’re the No. 1 team in the NBA, standing at 46-12 for a .793 winning percentage. Only two Celtics teams had a higher winning percentage through the first 58 games of a season, and both went on to win the NBA Championship in 1964-65 (.828) and 1985-86 (.810.) The 2007-2008 Boston team that won the NBA title was also 46-12 through 58 games. Winning the championship is the standard, so the pressure is on Tatum and teammates. The Celtics have won nine in a row and are 17-3 since Jan. 13. They’re 15-1 against Atlantic division rivals, 33-6 vs. Eastern Conference challengers and have lost only three of 30 home games so far. If it holds up, the average margin of victory (10.43 points) for the current Celtics would be the best in franchise history. Tatum is leading the way by averaging 27 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.

BOLD TALK FROM REDS CAMP: “This is the year we’re going to be a playoff team” Cincinnati second baseman Jonathan India told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. “We all know it. We just missed the playoffs by two games last year. We’re not going to miss it again. We’ve got more energy. We’ve more confidence. And a lot of us have a chip on our shoulder. We’re going to win the division this year.”

OUTSIDE VIEW OF ST. LOUIS CITY SC: MLSSoccer.com has St. Louis City SC at No. 13 in this week’s power rankings. City was No. 11 going into the season. “All told, St. Louis seem like a prime candidate to be a team that actually plays better than the previous season but catches fewer breaks,” J. Sam Jones wrote. “They could be improved and end up not matching their 2023 point total (56 points).”

MISSING BRANDON CRAWFORD: Giants fans really loved this guy, who played more games at shortstop than any player in franchise history. He also won four Gold Gloves, made three All-Star teams and was a major reason for San Francisco’s World Series titles in 2012 and 2014. Crawford is a Cardinal, but his popularity will be eternal among Giants fans.

Wrote Brady Klopfer of the McCovey’s Cove blog: “Farewell, sweet prince. We knew there was a chance that it would happen. And now it has, indeed, happened. The greatest shortstop in San Francisco Giants history — a man who had a nearly perfectly-written script — will play baseball for a team not affiliated with the Giants for the first time since suiting up for UCLA in 2008. Yes, Brandon Crawford is moving on, as he’s signing a deal with the Cardinals …

“It’s going to be very hard and very weird to see, but I want to make it clear that we should all be happy. If you need to cry, cry. If you need to barf, barf. If you need a beer, grab a beer. But while it slightly damages our happily ever after, it’s the continuation of Crawford’s. He wanted to keep playing. It wasn’t going to happen on the Giants. Now he gets to do so. We should all be very happy for him, even if deep down you wish that what he wanted was to retire and go enjoy rural Arizona with his great playlists and adorable kids.”

MOVING UP IN THE CHARTS: “In his new first-round mock draft, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has Mizzou defensive lineman Darius Robinson going to the Arizona Cardinals with the 27th overall pick. “I moved Robinson into my Big Board after the Senior Bowl in early February,” Kiper wrote. “He was one of the best prospects during practices, showing lightning-quick get-off at the snap and power in one-on-one pass-rush drills, all at 286 pounds. And when I went back to study his 2023 tape, you can see his performance was no fluke.”

Thanks for reading …

Have a fantastic weekend …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

All stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, and Sports Info Solutions unless noted otherwise.

The post BERNIE BITS: Blues-Buchnevich, Key To Cardinals’ Season, Sad College Hoops, Music, Best Mizzou QBs, J. Tatum + MUCH MORE. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BERNIE BITS

As the kids would say, LFG!

1. It’s a new beginning for St. Louis City SC, and I’m excited to take in Saturday’s MLS season-opening match against visiting Real Salt Lake. In 2023, City stunned the circuit with its amazing success in winning the Western Conference as a first–year expansion team. The inspirational launch It was worthy of immense pride and celebration, but the lads must prove themselves all over again. Among the many things we learned last season was this: don’t pay attention to preseason forecasts. The predictions for St. Louis City SC are all over the place going into 2024, and that’s reasonable given the way the club faded late in its inaugural season. Including their first-round playoff skunking by Sporting Kansas City, STL lost its final four matches, getting outscored 11-2 in the process. It didn’t diminish the joy of a munificent first season, but I see no reason to take offense if the soccer literati are a bit skeptical over City in the second-year outlook. It’s the big leagues.

2. What I like: City’s plan to build out a more complete offense that doesn’t have to rely as heavily on the pressure-and-pounce tactics to score goals. The targeted roster upgrades on the back line and at midfield were on point. And then there’s the anticipated improvement of Samuel Adeniran and Aziel Jackson. They’re exciting talents capable of breaking down a defense.

3. Must improve: City has to be more accurate in its passing to create more scoring opportunities. Last season St. Louis ranked 28th among the league’s 29 teams in completed pass percentage, last in short-pass accuracy, 25th in progression passes (10+ yards upfield) and last in the number of passes into the final third. If the pressure game wasn’t swarming to force turnovers and quick-strike goals, City often struggled to make connections to move forward.

4. The concern: After a shaky start, opponents did a pretty good job of adjusting to coach Bradley Carnell’s pressure infestation as the season went on. This could make them more comfortable going against STL’s style in the second season.

5. Finally, good luck to all. Behold the magenta. Another round of thanks is in order. This old sports town was greatly enhanced by the inception of St. Louis City SC in 2023. A decades-long wait for a spot in the MLS paid off with the arrival of a precious gift. City Park is a wonderful venue. Every home match is a colorful street festival that moves inside the gates for more fun. The experience is pure happiness. Yes. I’m gushing. Nice win over Houston in the CONCACAF Champions Cup match earlier this week. Next up: instant MLS momentum with an opening night win over Real Salt Lake.

Moving Along …

ARE THE BLUES A PLAYOFF-CALIBER TEAM?

We’ll have a better answer after the next nine games. The boys will play eight on the road. There’s a three-game road trip, a single home game, then five games on the east coast. Six of the Blues’ nine opponents currently hold playoff spots. Another opponent is four points out of a playoff spot. Two others are within five points of getting a postseason ticket. Six of the nine opponents rank no worse than 14th overall among the 30 NHL teams in points-earned percentage. The NY Rangers (1), Boston (2), Winnipeg (5) and Edmonton (10) are situated in the league’s top 10 for best points-earned percentage.

The Blues are tied for the No. 2 wild–card spot in the West. Their record (17-10-1) under interim coach Drew Bannister has generated a .625 points-earned percentage that ranks 11th in the NHL since the Blues fired Craig Berube.

MORE HOLLERING ABOUT QUALITY STARTS

I keep getting notes from folks who dismiss the quality start as a legitimate statistic for measuring starting pitchers. I think too many are hung up on the terminology. The “quality” part. That’s because the minimum standard for a quality start is at least six innings pitched with no more than three earned runs allowed. Fine. If your objection is to the verbiage, then call it a Decent Start instead. Or maybe a Solid Start works for you. But whatever you want to name it, these caliber of starts really make a huge impact on a team’s season.

Here I go again …

— Last season, when MLB teams received a quality start in a game, they collectively posted a winning percentage of .688. When teams failed to benefit from a quality start, their collective winning percentage in those games was .398.

— In 2023, the piteous Cardinals (71-91) were 33-15 when getting a quality start for a winning percentage of .687. In their 114 games without a quality start, the Cards were 38-76 for a .333 winning percentage. But quality starts don’t matter? Really? That’s what you think? Good grief.

— In the 28 seasons that Bill DeWitt Jr. has owned the Cardinals, the team has a .706 winning percentage in quality starts and a .384 win percentage when a pitcher doesn’t deliver a QS. Huge difference. But by now I realize there are hopelessly whacked-out deniers out there who refuse to accept facts.

The reason I’m dwelling on quality starts is because of the changes made to the St. Louis rotation for 2024. The Cardinals signed starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Since 2014, Gray ranks seventh in the majors for most quality starts with 138, Lynn is eighth with 136 and Gibson is 11th with 132.

The Cardinals currently have four starting pitchers that rank among the top 32 in MLB for most quality starts over the six seasons: Gibson (12th), Lynn (16th), Miles Mikolas (22nd) and Gray (32nd.) And keep in mind that Mikolas missed 2020 and most of 2021 with a forearm injury. If Steven Matz can stay healthy, the Cardinals would be armed with five guys to crank out plenty of quality starts. And that would translate into plenty of wins. Last season only six MLB rotations had fewer quality starts than St. Louis.

MIZZOU FOOTBALL RATED HIGHLY

ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently posted his 2024 college football preseason ratings based on his vaunted SP+ metrics system, and Mizzou was ranked 11th nationally and sixth in the SEC. The SEC teams ahead of Mizzou are Georgia (1), Texas (4), Alabama (6), Ole Miss (8) and LSU (10). Connelly’s projection has Mizzou with the eighth-ranked offense in the nation. Part of this is based on the players coming back from last season’s 11-win team; at 68 percent, Missouri ranks 31st nationally in returning players. The Tigers have 70% of the offense coming back which ranks 16th nationally …

OLI MARMOL NO. 2 IN THE HOT-SEAT RANKINGS

That’s according to former Reds and Nationals GM Jim Bowden, who writes for The Athletic. The list, in order, is John Schneider (Toronto), Marmol, Derek Shelton (Pirates), Bud Black (Rockies) and Pedro Grifol (White Sox.)

“Last season was a total disaster as the Cardinals went 71-91 and fell to the bottom of the NL Central,” Bowden wrote. “In his two seasons in charge, Marmol has challenged 81 umpire calls and gotten 45 of them overturned, a success rate of (only) 55.6 percent.”

Bowden cited Marmol’s controversial and criticized early-season decision to bench catcher Willson Contreras, the manager’s tendency to call out players publicly instead of speaking to them in private, and the handling of rookie Jordan Walker.

“The Cardinals’ evolving analytics department probably had too much influence on Marmol,” Bowden wrote. “He was saddled with a bad pitching staff that finished with a 4.79 ERA, which ranked 24th out of the 30 teams. During the offseason, the Cardinals front office prioritized and invested heavily in starting pitching.”

Bowden’s conclusion: “Vegas has set the over/under at 84 wins this season despite the Cardinals’ 71-win campaign last year. If they are below .500 in the middle of the season, don’t be surprised if Yadier Molina is their manager come the All-Star break.”

MORE SCRUTINY ON MARMOL

Yes, this is how it’s going to be for the skipper in 2024. In another piece posted Friday by The Athletic, Marmol was listed at No. 2 on a list of managers under the most pressure. Writer Jayson Stark consulted a panel of 31 executives, former executives, coaches and scouts.

“The good news for the Cardinals: Our voters had mostly good things to say about an offseason in which they added Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to their rotation — and added depth to their bullpen with Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton,” Stark wrote. “The bad news for the Cardinals: Their entire rotation might be 33 or older — and we heard lots of concern about their manager, Oli Marmol, and his ability to navigate this vessel’s storms. One rival NL executive told Start the Cardinals would “be at the top of my list of teams most likely to make a change (of manager).” And that executive added, “Don’t go to sleep on the job Yadi (Molina) did managing (Puerto Rico) in the Caribbean Series.”

RED ALERT! WORLD SERIES DROUGHT

Heading into 2024, the Cardinals haven’t advanced to the World Series since 2013. Since then 14 different major-league teams have competed in the World Series. Three teams have played in multiple World Series – Houston (4 times), LA Dodgers (3) and Kansas City (2). And there have been single appearances by San Francisco, the NY Mets, Cleveland, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia, Boston, Washington, Tampa Bay and Atlanta …

Eight different teams have won the World Series since the Cardinals did it back in 2011. San Francisco, Boston and Houston each have won two World Series over that time – and single WS titles were claimed by Kansas City, the Chicago Cubs, Washington, Atlanta and Texas.

That said, even with their horrendous 71-91 season in 2023, the Cardinals have MLB’s third-best regular season winning percentage (.547) in the 12 seasons that followed their 2011 World Series triumph. Only the Dodgers (.606) and Yankees (.562) have done better since the start of the 2012 season.

RAVE REVIEW FOR LUTHER BURDEN III

Pro Football Focus rated the Mizzou star at No. 1 on a top-10 list of best returning wide receivers in 2024. “If you’re looking for the next Deebo Samuel, look no further,” PFF wrote. “Burden has similar size to the San Francisco 49ers’ star receiver, and the two are at their best with the ball in their hands. Burden’s 725 yards after the catch were third among all FBS receivers last season and his 314 receiving yards after contact were the fourth-most. Burden also displayed impressive hands and body control this past season, dropping just four of his 94 catchable targets.”

RESPECT FOR BRADY COOK

The St. Louis son made the Pro Football Focus list of the best returning college quarterbacks for 2024, slotting the Mizzou QB at No. 10. That’s impressive considering Cook’s status after a disappointing 2022 season. Cook had to beat out Sam Horn for the starting job during the 2023 camp. By the end of the last season, Cook was the heralded starter for a fantastic 11-win MU team that finished with the No. 7 ranking nationally.

“Cook took a massive leap as a passer this past season, improving his PFF passing grade to an 80.0 in 2023 after earning just a 66.7 mark the year before,” Pro Football Focus wrote. “He’s also a dangerous threat on the ground, placing 10th among Power Five quarterbacks with 1,157 rushing yards since 2022. The biggest question is whether this is who Cook is as a passer now or if he’ll regress to his sophomore form. With Missouri returning wide receivers Burden, Theo Wease Jr. and offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, it’s a safe bet that Cook will have a similarly successful senior season.”

ABOUT ILLINOIS BASKETBALL

I enjoy watching the Fighting Illini, who are ranked No. 12 nationally at Ken Pom. But I wonder about a defense that’s been burned for 80 or more points in four of the last five games. The Illini do a terrific job of defending shots; they’re a top 25 team nationally in holding opponents to a low effective field goal percentage. But the Illinois defense isn’t disruptive, and that’s a problem. The Illini currently rank 360th in the nation in the percentage of opponent possessions that end in a turnover. And they are 351st in steal percentage.

PLAY BALL! EXHIBITION-GAME WATCH LIST FOR THE CARDINALS

* Thomas Saggese:** Can the hitting-machine rookie infielder play shortstop and become a legit option for a backup role at shortstop?

* A passel of relievers:** let there be swings and misses and strikeouts.

* Dylan Carlson:** can he hit the ball hard? Believe it or not, this puzzling outfield talent displayed improvement in this area during an otherwise dreary 2023. But since his first look in the majors (2020) he hasn’t really smashed the ball with authority since the start of 2021. He’s muscled some four-seam fastballs, but that isn’t enough.

* Healthy lumbar regions: Wait … What? Yes. No one wants to see another outbreak of lower back-pain for the brothers Nolan (Arenado and Gorman.)

Masyn Winn: Will the starting shortstop put up a hitting performance that can calm the restless souls who fret over his .172 average in his late-season MLB debut?

* Jordan Walker’s improvement afield: he’s worked overtime with instructors Willie McGee and Jose Oquendo and that should pay off in 2024. We’ll get our first look this weekend.

* Tommy Edman: will his recovering wrist be ready to go by opening day? You’ll have to excuse me for ignoring the Cardinals’ anticipated timeline. They have a history of being overly optimistic in these matters.

* Zack Thompson: The Cardinals need to have the inner peace that comes with knowing that they can count on having a solid sixth starting pitcher. Matthew Liberatore is also part of this discussion.

ABOUT MIZZOU BASKETBALL

The Tigers have a .354 winning percentage in conference games since making their SEC debut at the start of the 2012-2013 season. Frank Haith was the coach for the first two SEC seasons and MU went a respectable 20-16 in conference action. But in 10 combined seasons under coaches Kim Anderson, Cuonzo Martin and Dennis Gates, Mizzou is 54-119 in conference play for a winning percentage of .312. The last 10 seasons have produced only two winning SEC records including the 11-7 mark in Gates’ first campaign. But the Tigers have collapsed to 0-13 in the SEC in his second season. The Tigers haven’t defeated a legitimate opponent since defeating Wichita State by 10 points on Dec. 3.

WHAT’S THIS? A NEGATIVE FASHION REVIEW?

The Athletic reviewed the new kits that will be sported by each MLS team in 2024. The St. Louis City “Confluence” kit wasn’t a hit.

“Inspired by the intersection of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers… and I can’t even finish typing this because I’m so exhausted by poorly-executed, over-thought kits like these,” Pablo Maurer wrote. “This thing looks like a topographical map, and not in any good way.”

Those meanies at The Athletic put the new St. Louis City SC kits in the bottom three of the MLS along with Houston and Orlando.

THE CARDINALS ARE COMPELLING

Writing in his newsletter, baseball analyst Joe Sheehan included the Cardinals in his assessment of the “most interesting camps” during 2024 spring training.

“The Cardinals enter camp off their worst season since 1995, their first 90-loss season since 1990 and their worst defensive performance since the 1970s,” Sheehan wrote. “Their 2023 campaign disintegrated early in a hail of line-drive doubles, assignations of blame, and lousy people management by Oli Marmol and John Mozeliak.

“It may have been the shock therapy the organization needed. The Cardinals, who for so long emphasized ground balls and pitching into the defense, are now trying to develop pitchers who miss bats. That’s not going to happen overnight. In the short term, the Cards have added a lot of potential power arms to their bullpen in Keynan Middleton, Ryan Fernandez, and Riley O’Brien. Unlike last year, when injuries and ineffectiveness exposed a lack of pitching depth, Oli Marmol has a lot of bullpen options to choose from this year.

“Show up in Jupiter by early March, and you’ll be set to see the live arms that represent the Cardinals’ future. Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby, the team’s top pitching prospects, are in camp. They’re joined by Victor Scott II, who isn’t a threat to crack a crowded outfield, but who will be fun to watch nevertheless. Scott stole 94 bases at two levels last season, and he showed more pop than your average speedster, hitting .303 with nine homers. And Jordan Walker, while no longer a prospect, comes in off a strong second half with high expectations that he’ll develop both as a hitter and outfielder.

“The camp questions are mostly about how playing time will be distributed. The Cards have some Team Pretzel options with Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan both able to play six positions. Should rookie Masyn Winn not hit enough to hold shortstop, the knock-on effects could open the door for Dylan Carlson to save his career, for Alec Burleson to start his, or for Matt Carpenter to revive his one more time.”

THE PADRES LIKE MIKE SHILDT

The former Cardinals manager is building relationships in his first spring training as manager for the San Diego Padres. He won over a Padres VIP — Fernando Tatis Jr. — when Shildt closely worked with the star during his baseball-training rehab from wrist surgery. And after being named manager in November, Shildt spent much of the offseason traveling around the U.S. and the Dominican Republic to personally visit with Padre players.

“He definitely cares,” Tatis told the San Diego Union Tribune. “I feel like he’s the right fit for us right now. He has been with us for the last two years. He has seen what’s been going on. He has a feel. He saw a little bit (of) what we were lacking, what we’re missing. I feel like he’s gonna bring that old-school baseball and be a good match with the new baseball.”

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak — who fired Shildt following the 2021 season — had good things to say about Shildty in an extensive Union-Tribune profile.

“Over that time, there was a friendship and a bond that developed,” Mozeliak told San Diego beatwriter Kevin Acee. “So to end up where we did was unfortunate. But there’s no turning back on what happened. I am happy that he was able to get a second chance, because I do believe that people deserve that in life.”

Thanks for reading and please have a fantastic weekend.

Pardon my typos.

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

The post Bernie Bits: A Notes Extravaganza! Cardinals, St. Louis City SC, Blues, Illinois Hoops, Mizzou, Marmol, Shildt, + More. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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“Pucks with Panger” Martin talks with Darren Pang about the “pesky” Philadelphia Flyers, Kevin Hayes being dragged into a media circus, Craig Berube next role and the Blues playing better under Bannister. Is Florida the best team in hockey? We get into Carolina and Boston too.

Presented by Auffenberg Hyundai

The post Pucks with Panger – Episode 6 – 2024 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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People, it’s time for Bernie Bits!

READING TIME 10 MINUTES

TORRY HOLT: In his fifth time as a finalist, the great St. Louis Rams wide receiver Torry Holt came up short in voting support for enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. It’s nothing personal. Holt will get there. You don’t become a five-time finalist without eventually making it into Canton. To his credit, Torry has handled the voting results with exemplary class and grace. That said, it’s frustrating to see Holt kept on hold.

I’m not sure what else Holt could have done in the NFL. It’s true that Holt’s receiving status slowed during his final two seasons (2008, 2009) but he was competing on one healthy knee. And knee surgery brought his career to a close.

Why does Holt belong? Let’s just stick with Holt’s most impressive numbers that reaffirm his historical prominence. The elite production made him a dominant presence in the 2000-2009 decade.

— Most receptions (868) ever by an NFL wide receiver in single decade.

— Most yards receiving (12,594) ever by an NFL wide receiver in a single decade.

— During his eight-year career peak – 2000 through 2007- Holt led NFL wide receivers catches (753), receiving yards (11,076), receiving first downs (563) and was third in touchdown grabs (65.)

— Holt held NFL records in several categories including most consecutive seasons (6) with at least 1,300 yards receiving – and consecutive seasons (6) with 90+ receptions.

— Holt was an All-Decade selection for the Aughts. If you’re an All-Decade pick, you’ve qualified for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Holt has strong backers on the Hall of Fame selection committee including the respected analyst Mike Sando of The Athletic. Sando took the best eight seasons of a player’s career – the peak – to measure Hall of Fame worthiness. Holt not only warrants selection into the Hall of Fame, his eight best seasons put him in a very exclusive company of wide receivers.

“Holt ranks fourth behind Jerry Rice, Don Hutson and Randy Moss in my elite production research,” Sando wrote. “Steve Largent, Julio Jones, Marvin Harrison, James Lofton, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and Terrell Owens round out the top dozen.”

Though Holt had a slightly better career based on the approximate value metric, Andre Johnson was voted in ahead of Holt this time around. Holt should be next. In the recent vote for the 2024 selection, Holt had more voting support than Wayne, another strong wide receiver candidate. Hopefully, Torry Holt’s patient wait will come to an end when voters do this again, early next year.

If I had one criticism of the current Hall of Fame board, it’s their tendency to live in the moment and downplay the past. Their refusal to induct the exceptional AFL wide receiver Art Powell and acclaimed 1950s coach Buddy Parker was a disgrace. Both men were nominated by the seniors committee, which did a great and thorough job of vetting all senior candidates. That committee takes this very seriously, and makes these decisions with a clear conscience.

Instead of going along with the committee’s recommendation with a simple “Yes” vote, the committee snubbed these two late legends in a heartless act of mean-spiritedness. The senior nominees are stand-alone candidates. They’re voted in as individuals — a straight yes or no — and don’t take away votes from modern-era finalists such as Holt. That makes the pettiness of snubbing Powell and Parker even more embarrassing. I served on the Hall of Fame committee for a long time. I wouldn’t want to serve on it today. The process has been poisoned by too many Hot Take personality types who don’t care about doing the meaningful research. And the attention spans are growing shorter every year.

FANGRAPHS TOP 100 PROSPECT RANKINGS: No surprises. Four Cardinals’ prospects made the list. Roll call: shortstop Masyn Winn (25th), pitcher Tink Hence (79), center fielder Victory Scott (83rd) and pitcher Tekoah Roby (88th.) Here’s the blurb on Winn: “Huge arm is icing on a cake made mostly of plus bat-to-ball skills and viable shortstop defense.” On Hence: “Changeup took a huge leap while his fastball backpedaled a bit last year. He’s still tracking like an impact arm but needs to get stronger.” On Scott: “Infielders beware, Scott is a bunt-inclined speedster and potential Gold Glove center fielder.” And what about Roby: “Has the stuff to be a mid-rotation starter, but whether or not he can stay healthy enough is another matter.”

THE JAYSON TATUM FILE: This weekend the Boston Celtics star will play in the NBA All-Star game for the fifth straight season. And he’ll be a starter for the second year in a row. Earlier this month NBA.com listed its top-selling jerseys during the first half of the season and Tatum came in at No. 2 among league players and only Steph Curry is ahead of him. That puts Tatum above the likes of LeBron James, Victor Wembanyama, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic … the St. Louisan is having his best all-around NBA regular season for the winningest team in the league, the 43-12 Celtics. Tatum is averaging 27 points per game and is posting career bests in overall field goal percentage (.475), effective FG percentage (.554), two-point percentage (.561) and assists per fame (4.8). Tatum’s current 3-point shooting percentage (.361) is his best since 2020-2021. And his average of 8.6 rebounds per game is the second best of his career … Saturday Tatum will be on TNT to provide on-air analysis of the annual 3-point shooting contest – as well as the 3-point shooting showdown between Curry and Sabrina Ionescu … sticking with the NBA: since returning to the Phoenix lineup on Dec. 29, St. Louisan Bradley Beal shot .501 from the floor and averaged 19.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists in his first 23 games. After a slow start Phoenix has improved to 33-22, which is is sixth in the Western Conference … former Mizzou power forward Jontay Porter has been in and out of the lineup for the Toronto Raptors this season, starting five games and appearing in 17. Porter signed a two-way contract with Toronto before the season. He’s spent some time with Toronto’s G League team … let’s close with more on Taytum: in the Las Vegas sportsbooks, he’s listed at No. 5 among the favorites for NBA Most Valuable Player this season. Tatum should be receiving more support than he is, but at least he’s in the discussion. As ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith said of Tatum: “Does being the best player on the best team matter? I’d say it does.”

JOE SHEEHAN RATES THE CARDINALS: Over at his superb baseball newsletter, our friend Sheehan is doing position-by-position rankings for MLB starting players in advance of 2024. Here’s where he put each St. Louis starter: catcher Willson Contreras 6th, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt 6th, second baseman Nolan Gorman 6th, third baseman Nolan Arenado 7th, shortstop Masyn Winn 25th, left fielder Lars Nootbaar 4th, center fielder Tommy Edman 19th, and right fielder Jordan Walker 7th. Sheehan sees big things for Walker and Gorman in 2024.

“I’m all-in on Gorman, who just needs to stay healthy for a full season to validate this ranking,” Sheehan wrote. “Back problems have been an ongoing issue. When in the lineup, he hits the ball hard as much as anybody in the game, with a top-ten barrel rate (16.5%). He’s a capable second baseman, if not much more than that. Big breakout coming,” … Sheehan had this to say about Walker: “This is aggressive. It reflects what I think will be a big leap by Walker at the plate, with him driving the ball in the air more. I remain convinced he’s a first baseman and am eager to see him prove me wrong about that. Manny Ramirez broke out at age 22 with a .269/.357/.521 line in a season cut short by the strike. Vladimir Guerrero hit .302/.350/.483 at 22. That’s the kind of year I see Walker having.”

Other samples…

Nootbaar: “I’ve talked up Nootbaar in the past; even fighting injuries, he contributed across the board and posted a three-win campaign.”
Arenado: His “big 2022 season looks less like a bounceback and more like a bounce,’’ Sheehan said. “Last year, he had his highest strikeout rate since 2018 and his lowest walk rate since 2015, and the first half of the season was the worst he’s ever looked defensively.”
Goldschmidt: “He needs maybe one more good year to lock up a Hall of Fame case; as is, he’s pretty close to a match for Todd Helton, who just went in.”

A word about Sheehan: he’s among the very best analysts writing about baseball. His newsletter is a subscription service but he’s offering a free, weekly look at the newsletter so you can check it out. (No commitments. No obligation.) Just a weekly freebie that will be emailed directly into your inbox. To sign up just send Joe a message at freesheehannewsletter@gmaill.com

BLUE NOTES: Since Drew Bannister took over as interim coach on Dec. 14, the Blues rank 11th in the NHL with an average of 3.05 goals per 60 minutes. In their 28 games under Craig Berube the Blues ranked 26th with a rate of 2.80 goals per 60 … update: the Blues are 16-8-1 since the coaching move and rank 8th in the league with a .660 points percentage over that time … that .660 percentage is fifth best in the Western Conference since Dec. 14. More impressively and during this stretch the Blues have gone 5-0 against teams ahead of them in the conference standings. With Bannister they’re 2-0 vs. Dallas, 2-0 vs. Vancouver and 1-0 vs. Edmonton … Thursday’s entertaining 6-3 win over visiting Edmonton marked the third time we’ve seen the Blues get goals from six different scorers in a victory in the last 21 games. Before that the Blues had goals by six different players only once in their first 32 games …

Since the coaching change Blues center Robert Thomas has nine goals and 24 assists for 33 points. The 24 assists is tied for third most among NHL centers since Dec. 14. Only Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon have more helpers than Thomas over that time … Jake Neighbours has four goals and three assists for seven points in his last four games after tallying three goals and five points in his previous 15 games … with 19 goals this season, Neighbours is moving up the charts in most goals in a season by a Blue age 21 or less. Right now his 19 goals rank 12th in the category. But with three more goals, Neighbours will move past David Perron, Mike Murphy, Wayne Merrick, Doug Gilmour and Patrik Berglund and into seventh place for most goals in a season by a Blue age 21 or less.

NOT-SO-QUICK HITS

* ESPN’s current projection on the 2024 Cardinals: 85.3 wins, 12th overall in the majors and a 59.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. Here’s some wishful thinking from Bradford Doolittle: “Two things the Cardinals love to do: bring back players who used to excel for them, and take away the Cubs’ nice things,” he wrote. “They could do both, right now, and if they did, they could really establish themselves as preseason favorites in the NL Central. On the ex-Cardinal front, Jordan Montgomery is dangling out there and the St. Louis rotation could sure use him. You can say the same thing about Blake Snell, but he doesn’t fit our ex-Cardinal narrative. The Cardinals did bring back a former standout in Matt Carpenter, but perhaps they would have been better suited to make a splash and target Cody Bellinger for the position group. He’d start in center, provide a two-way upgrade to the lineup, and, best of all, they’d prevent him from re-signing with the Cubs.” Here’s the link but it’s behind a paywall.

* Retrospective on Steve Spagnuolo as head coach of the St. Louis Rams: From 2006 through 2011, the Rams chose 52 players in the NFL Draft. Only ONE of the 52, defensive end Robert Quinn, was selected to the Pro Bowl as a Ram. Spags took over as head coach in 2009 and inherited a roster wrecked by terrible draft choices. And that continued through his final season, 2011. Guard Rodger Saffold was drafted by the Rams in 2010 and had a good NFL career before retiring at the end of the 2022 season. Saffold made two Pro Bowls — but both honors came in the final two years of his career. He was never picked for the Pro Bowl as a St. Louis Ram. Spags had a poor 10-38 record. But that’s what happens when you go to work for a horrendous organization that can’t identify talent. He’s a good who had the misfortune of going to work for a horrendous organization that happened to be plotting and scheming a franchise move. When Spags has had a fair chance, he’s helped his teams win four Super Bowl championships — the most by a defensive coordinator in the Super Bowl Era.

* As of now, FanGraphs has St. Louis ranked in the third tier among MLB teams. That tier also includes the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Phillies and Rangers. The Braves, Dodgers and Astros are in the first tier. The second tier has the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Blue Jays, Mariners and Orioles. FanGraphs has St. Louis with 83 wins.

* Here’s FanGraphs’ STL summary from Jake Mailhot: “You can quibble about who they brought in, but the Cardinals had one job this offseason and they went right after it, signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson to revamp their starting pitching. Those three should be better than the patchwork staff that derailed St. Louis last season. Combined with a strong offensive core and solid bullpen, an improved rotation should be enough for the Cardinals to make last year a one-year blip rather than the start of a long decline.”

* There’s no excuse for Mizzou’s basketball season. None. The Tigers are 0-11 in conference play; today they are ranked No. 149 at KenPom. For perspective, Mizzou’s worst ranking under Cuonzo Martin was No. 137 in his final season. This season’s Mizzou squad has entered the Kim Anderson Zone in KenPom ratings. Year Three will be a big one for coach Dennis Gates.

* I’m not surprised to see St. Louis show out with phenomenal TV ratings for the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a great and under-appreciated football town. The ratings are extraordinary and have been higher than in all but several NFL markets. Despite the efforts of pandering local media to convince STL fans to continue with the diaper-baby crying and pouting over the NFL, it didn’t work. Like it or not, this is an NFL Nation. People love to watch football, wager on football and have gatherings to view NFL games on Sundays. This includes St. Louis. As I’ve always said: you can hate the NFL as an institution and criticize the league for its corrupt relocation process. But the coaches and the players don’t vote on franchise moves and had nothing to do with the Rams/NFL dirty business. So if you enjoy watching football, then watch football. No one in the media has the authority to shame you into some half-witted boycott that failed. The huge TV ratings only reaffirm the intense interest in pro football in St. Louis, and that’s a really good positive thing.

* The sharps in Las Vegas are on the Blues. The smart money has picked up on the trend; since the coaching change the Blues are 16-9 against the betting-line spread, or 64 percent. That includes an 8-2 ATS mark in the last 10 games.

* The new MLB uniform shirts look like shirseys. Buying one of the new-look (and more expensive) jerseys is the equivalent of buying a knock-off Rolex watch or Gucci bag. It’s like buying breakfast cereal: the box looks the same, and is the same size as ever, and cost the same … but once you look inside you realize that there are fewer Corn Flakes in the box.

* Enough already with the Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes word blast in a fake debate over The Greatest Quarterback Of All Time. Brady played 23 NFL seasons and started 371 games including the postseason. Mahomes has been Kansas City’s starting quarterback for six seasons and has started n 114 games including the postseason. Brady won seven Super Bowl rings. Mahomes has three. But if you want to join the argument and throw something cute into the fray, here ya go: Brady won a Super Bowl for every 53 games started in the NFL. Mahomes has won a Super Bowl for every 38 games he’s started in the NFL. What does this prove? They’re both great. We don’t have to vote yet. Mahomes has a long way to go.

* Good luck to St. Louis City SC. The offseason went by quickly and that’s a wonderful thing. The first season was tremendous. The second season will be just as much fun and satisfying. The team will be very good, but the expansion season presented a unique, once-in-a-lifetime experience and shouldn’t be set as the standard for judging subsequent STL City teams.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful weekend!

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

The post Bernie Bits: Torry Holt, Cardinals Player Ratings, Jayson Tatum, Blues, Spags, Bradley Beal and Many Notes! appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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“Pucks with Panger” Martin talks with Darren Pang about St. Louis Blues playoff push, Winter Classic, plus there’s a visit with Keith Tkachuk.

Presented by Auffenberg Hyundai

The post Pucks with Panger (And Big Walt) – Episode 5 – 2024 appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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In evaluating performance, I tend to get lost in deep-dive research. I do find a lot of relevant statistical information by going under the surface for stats, and that can be informative and valuable. But there is a downside.

At times I’m guilty of making things too complicated.

Keeping it simple can be better.

A good example: The St. Louis Blues and their improvement in bottom-line success since discharging coach Craig Berube and appointing Drew Bannister as the interim leader.

Bannister took over on Dec. 14, and the Blues are 15-7-1 since GM Doug Armstrong made the move. Their .674 points-earned percentage is seventh best in the NHL over that time.

The only teams to do better than STL since the changeover are Edmonton, Vancouver, Carolina, Florida, Winnipeg and Dallas. As they go into Tuesday night’s game at Toronto the Blues are 7-1 in their last eight.

This is the part where I keep it simple rather than get lost in the maze of advanced stats. We know that the underlying metrics haven’t changed that much since Bannister moved in behind the bench. We’ll monitor that. But winning is … good, right?

I’m keeping it simple. Impactful special teams and sharp goaltending can do wonders for a team’s health in the standings.

Other things matter, too. Competing harder. Developing a firmer resilience that can flip narrow losses into close wins. There’s the benefit of having your best players performing as best players should. There’s the plus of getting contributions from all parts of your roster.

All of these attributes apply to the Blues and are duly noted.

But let’s keep it simple by focusing on what’s driving the Blues forward.

1. Power play electricity: since the coaching shift the Blues are cashing in on the power play, and the “before and after” difference is profound.

* In 28 games played before the coaching change: 31st among the 32 teams with a pathetic power-play success rate of 8.4 percent.

* In 23 games since the change: sixth in the NHL by converting on 24.6 percent of power-play opportunities. Only one Western Conference club (Colorado) has a higher PP success rate than St. Louis during the Bannister takeover.

* The Blues scored seven power play goals in their first 28 games. Heck, they’ve scored just as many (7) in their last five games.

* Because of the extra juice generated by the power play, the Blues have scored 3.08 goals in their 23 games with different coaching leadership. With Berube the Blues averaged 2.85 goals in their first 28 contests.

* The Blues have improved their penalty-kill percentage with Bannister as coach, but the difference isn’t significant. The PK has improved by 1.5 percent since Armstrong replaced Berube. Hey, it’s still progress.

The obvious takeaway: when your team is pumping in power play goals at a substantially increased volume, it goes a long way in compensating for your deficiencies at even strength. Before, the Blues power play was a damaging liability. And now it’s a potent strength, powerful enough to elevate their winning percentage.

2. It’s almost always about the goaltending. Nothing new here. But good luck to any NHL team that has shaky, mediocre goaltending. Fortunately for the Blues, their goaltending has provided tighter security. And that’s reflected by the basic save-percentage numbers and the reduction of goals against.

* At 5-on-5 before the change: .911 save percentage, ranking 15th. After the change: .927 save rate that ranks 7th in the league.

* All strengths before the change: .897 save percentage which ranked 18th. After the change: .913 save rate, which ranks 5th.

The goaltending from Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer combined with systematic improvement have made the “new” Blues a more difficult team to score against.

In all-strength situations before the change, the Blues ranked 25th in goals yielded (3.30) per 60 minutes. Since the change rank 11th with 2.67 goals allowed per 60. It’s even better at 5-on-5, with the goals-against yield per 60 minutes going from 2.95 per (27th) to 2.23 (5th.) The goal suppression is real.

This is elementary. When you score more goals and allow fewer goals over 23 games, your record will show that. In the first 28 games of the season we saw the exact opposite from the Blues: fewer goals scored and more goals allowed. The 13-14-1 record was evidence of the consequences.

With Bannister’s guidance the Blues have propelled their way into the Western Conference wild-card chase. And no matter what the advanced metrics holler at us, the power play and goaltending are the leading factors in an impressive turnaround.

With a greatly improved power play and superb goaltending, the Blues are stacking up the victories. They’re also beating their own underwhelming metrics. And that’s the simple way to explain it.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

All stats used in this column were sourced from Hockey Reference and Natural Star Trick.

The post Bernie: An Improved Power Play and Sharp Goaltending Have Turned The Blues Into a Postseason Contender. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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As many of you know, I’m a numbers nerd. A stat geek. A hopeless analytics addict. If I had a nickname, it would be “Metric” Miklasz. And at times all of this data is just a little boring, even for me.

There’s truth and value in the process that determines – pardon the expression – “underlying factors” that identify the inherent strengths and weaknesses of a team or player.

Ya, but it’s also a good idea to just watch games and enjoy the fun when your favorite team is winning. That’s when you can look at only one set of numbers – Wins, Losses – and smile a bit.

If the Blues win a late-night game out yonder in the Western territories, then just go to bed happy instead of studying the metrics on “expected” goals or win probability.

Go ahead. Relax. Have a cold beer or perhaps a soothing mug of hot chocolate. Don’t fret about those damn expected goals. It’s beneficial to your mental health to appreciate the actual goals and the actual wins.

As we’ve seen around these parts in recent times – Cardinals and Blues – winning is hard. Really hard. And losing is exhausting and maddening for fans.

So when the Blues collect two points during a competition – even if they’re outplayed – we don’t have to get all grumpy and pedantic and pick apart the results. When the Blues defeat a superior opponent, that’s a commendable outcome and should be toasted.

There is artistry in hockey – but a successful night doesn’t have to qualify as a work of art to be examined at every angle by snotty critics. And we don’t have to scold others who look at the win and see something special.

And yes, believe it or not, this sincere lecture is coming from certified donkeywonk, Metrics Miklasz. I’m the guy who sets records for WAR. That stands for “Words Above Replacement.”

I’m feeling rebellious. I admit it: I like seeing how the Blues are frustrating the hockey analysts. The real analysts. And especially the fake analysts. Every time the Blues win a game, these people turn into diaper babies.

The Blues are a noteworthy 13-6-1 since Drew Bannister replaced Craig Berube as coach. This is an upturn. It’s encouraging. After drifting into mediocrity, the Blues have moved into a wild-card playoff spot with 34 games left on the schedule. And now it’s up to the fellas to gather enough points to stay there. I offer no predictions.

Somewhat related question: Who doesn’t love an underdog? I’ll tell you who loves underdogs: investors that are riding with the Blues on the profit train. Team Banny is a hot 15-5 against the spread since the coaching change. Before that, the Blues were 12-16 ATS.

Underdog runs are charming and kind of inspirational.

So, yeah, let’s rejoice for a few minutes instead of sweating over the laptop keyboard while getting distressed over GARx and RAPM and XGF%.

Scram, Corsi.

Eff off, Fenwick.

Time to go, PDO.

The Blues have won five in a row. I don’t know about you, but I’m good with that. I don’t need to get permission from Evolving Hockey to applaud the Blues’ current trend.

I don’t care that the Blues’ four successes came by thinly sliced one-goal margins. And all four were by an identical 4-3 score, which is crazy. In their last three dubyas, the Blues ventured into overtime to claim the full two points.

And so what? That’s what makes this team so appealing. The underdog Blues are winning tight, suspenseful games. They’re working extra hard to claim the available prize in overtime sessions. Seven of their last nine wins were plucked by a single goal. When the game is on the line, the Blues are wired.

The Blues do not recognize their own limitations; they’re just playing through them. Rising above them. And they’re making money for those of us who have been alert enough to wager on them in recent weeks. If a cold spell is coming, well, that’s how it goes. But when you win a sports bet, you don’t have to give back the money if the Blues had a bad Corsi For Percentage, OK?

Under the direction of Coach Bannister, the Blues are 5-5-1 when the other side scores the first goal in a game. That’s a pleasant improvement on the previous pattern.

Since the coaching switchover The Note is 4-2 when trailing after one period. Their .667 winning percentage in this scenario is second best in the league, to Edmonton, since Bannister took the helm on Dec. 14.

The Blues have been in arrears eight times through two periods – and fought back to salvage three victories. Their .375 winning percentage under Bannister when down (but not out) after two periods is tied for third in the league behind Edmonton and Colorado.

These comebacks are captivating – mostly because none of this was happening before. And there’s a lot more to the St. Louis resurgence than puck luck and timely saves by their goaltenders.

+ Since GM Doug Armstromg brought in Bannister, the Blues’ best forwards are performing at a level we hoped to see. The notables are Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, and Brandon Saad. And Jake Neighbours has continued to score goals; he’s up to 15 on the season.

+ In addition to his four goals and five assists since the coaching decision, Parayko leads NHL defensemen with 60 blocked shots since Dec. 14. Last season Parayko was a minus 10 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio; this season he’s a +18. And during the Blues’ 13-6-1, Parayko has filched more takeaways (29) by an NHL defensemen. Parayko has eight goals in 48 games this season – his most since banking 10 goals in 64 games in 2019-2020.

+ The Blues have a power-play success rate of 25.4 percent in their last 20 games. A pathetic, futile, bewildering area has turned into a strength. That’s an example of coaching impact.

+ Young defenseman Scott Perunovich – given an expanded opportunity in the aftermath of the coaching shakeup – has keyed the improved power play. His influence has grown. Consider: Perunovich had eight assists in his first 36 regular-season games for the Blues – but has more than that, 10 assists, in his last 14 games. Hopefully the injured Perunovich will return after the All-Star break. He’s really made a difference.

+ During this 16-5-1 stretch goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have combined for an overall .907 save percentage that ranks seventh among the 30 NHL teams. Their even-strength save rate (.914) ranks eighth.

+ The Blues are doing a firmer job of preventing goals. The goaltenders are receiving more dependable support. Among other items the Blues have reduced their giveaway rate since Armstrong made his move. This has led to improvement in an essential part of the game. The Blues have allowed 2.62 even-strength goals per 60 minutes since the coaching change. That ranks 10th in the league. Before Bannister came in, the team ranked 24th with a yield of 3.3 even-strength goals per 60 minutes.

The Blues host visiting Columbus tonight at Enterprise Center before shutting down at the All-Star break. Boys, don’t mess up another swell chance to gain two points, boys.

The Blues have won some games that they probably deserved to lose. But they’ve also lost games they probably deserved to win. And yes, I agree, there are some underlying factors (sorry!) that warn of trouble up ahead. I’m usually near the front of the line in pointing it out. But not right now. The timing is all wrong.

There’s a time for leaning in on the analytics, and there’s a time for leaning back to savor success. If the Blues crash, we’ll deal with it. The metrics will be there for all to study, and we can do the Chicken Little routine. But just remember this: when your favorite team wins, no apologies are necessary.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

All stats used in my hockey columns over the years have been sourced from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and Money Puck unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie: The Blues Are Winning. They Are Fun To Watch. This Is Good. Don’t Worry About The Analytics. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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The Blues are a resurgent 11-6-1 since sacking coach Craig Berube after a loss to Detroit on Dec. 12. We should hold off before portraying interim coach Drew Bannister as the new Scotty Bowman, but the Blues are better since the change.

Under Berube the Blues were 13-14-1 for a points percentage of .482 that ranked 23rd in the NHL. Since Bannister was summoned from the St. Louis AHL affiliate to take over, the Blues have carved a .639 points percentage that ranks 11th among the 32 franchises.

The Blues had a minus 14 goal differential before GM Doug Armstrong made the tough decision to end the Berube Era. And in their first 17 games with Bannister as their leader, the Blues are a +1 in goal differential. There is nothing profound about that +1, but it confirms the improvement.

There’s been clear progress in several important areas. I want to focus on a couple of the more impressive developments since GM Doug Armstrong fired Berube.

1. The Power Play Is Recharged. The Blues were pathetic with the man advantage before the coaching switch, ranking 31st in the league with a PP success rate of 8.4. Since bringing in Bannister and adding power-play consultant Brad Richards, the Blues have converted on 23.5 percent of their PP opportunities. That’s good enough to rank 8th in the league since Bannister’s first game on Dec. 14. It helps to shoot the puck. Before Berube’s dismissal the Blues were 27th in the league in power play shots on goal per 60 minutes. Since the change, they’ve improved to 20th in power play shots on net per 60.

This ain’t electrifying stuff, but at least the Blues are, well, you know … trying harder to score on the power play. That kinda matters, right? In a related note, the Blues had eight shorthanded goals with Berube behind the bench. They’ve added three more shorties with their new coaching supervisor.

It’s pretty cool when your team has scored 11 times with the opponent circling and swooping on its own power play. It’s also a lot more fun when your team can score on its own power play more than, say, once a week.

2. The Boys Are More Determined To Compete: The best way to explain this is to just display the numbers.

* Under Berube: 0-12 record when trailing after one period, and an 0-13 mark when down after two periods.

* Under Bannister: 4-2 record (.667) when trailing after the first period; 2-5 when losing after two periods.

* That’s significant. In Berube’s 28 games this season the Blues did not post a single win when trailing after the first or second period. But they’ve already done that six times in Bannister’s first 17 games.

* Along the same lines: With Berube, the Blues went 1-13-1 when their opponent scored the game’s first goal. But the Bannister-led Blues are 4-5 when the opponent scores first.

* After consecutive wins at Calgary and Vancouver, the Blues have a winning road record (4-3) with Bannister as coach. They were 6-9-1 on the road before Armstrong’s intervention.

The Blues are showing more energy and urgency in the Team Spirit Metric. Of course, no such metric actually exists, but I wanted to make one up because this turnaround needs a fancy title.

The Blues have improved in other ways since Armstrong and Berube had a beer in the coach’s office after Army gave Chief the bad news. They’ll always have 2019, right? That’s worthy of a toast.

— The Blues are giving up fewer goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. The rate was 2.95 goals per 60 – 28th in the league – before the big coaching move was made. Since Bannister came in, the Blues have yielded 2.36 goals per 60 at five-on-five, and only 10 teams have been stingier over that time.

— Sharp and timely goaltending is a prominent factor in the improvement – but then again we knew that already. During the 11-6-1 run, goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have combined for an overall .907 save percentage that ranks 7th in the league since Dec. 14. And their five-on-five save percentage (.921) is 10th best.

— Before the coaching flip, the team’s goal differential at five-on-five was minus 12. Since the change, the Blues are a +2 at five-on-five. The Blues are more solid now, but there are underlying concerns.

Problems? Sure.

— The Blues don’t score enough. Their rate of goals scored per 60 minutes at five-on-five was 2.51 before the coaching change. That ranked 21st in the NHL. Since Bannister’s arrival, the Blues have scored 2.09 goals per 60 at five; that ranks 28th. But that’s why a team needs more production on the power play; the success can compensate for a sluggish offensive performance at even strength. Example: at all strengths the Blues are averaging more goals per 60 minutes (2.87) under Bannister compared to 2.80 goals/60 under Berube. That still isn’t enough scoring.

— The Blues are a disaster in the high-danger areas when skating at five-on-five. And they’re losing this battle by a massive margin. Before the coaching change the Blues had a 48.5 percent share of high-danger goals scored in competition (19th in the NHL.) With Bannister in place, the Blues have scored only 32.3% of the high-danger goals – and that’s dead last in the NHL.

— To put it another way: at five-on-five the Blues were outscored by only two goals (36-34) in high-danger scoring zones with Berube as coach. Since Berube’s removal, opponents have outscored the Blues 21-10 in high-danger areas. If this continues, the Blues will eventually suffer repercussions.

The turnaround is far from complete. But I didn’t write this column in an attempt to make a case to show the Blues are a reincarnation of the 1976-1977 Montreal Canadiens. But the Blues have taken an important step in the process: they give a damn. They’re competing harder – not always, but certainly a lot more often. And the Blues are definitely more resilient; just look at the increase in comeback wins. A more vivacious Team Spirit Metric has lifted the Blues into the Western Conference wild-card race. Now they’ll have to prove they can stay there.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

All stats used in this hockey column were sourced from Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick.

The post Bernie On The Blues: A Renewed Team Spirit. A Recharged Power Play. A Resurgence On The Ice. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BERNIE BITS

Predictions for 2024

I will turn 65 on Feb. 15. I will write many words and stress my voice by hollering for hours and hours on the radio. I will subscribe to too many sports-data sites. I will not watch the NBA until the postseason gets underway. I will watch more PBS programming, especially the British stuff.

I will be largely bored by college basketball until after the Super Bowl. I will eat a lot – but also a lot less than I used to. I will hang out with the outstanding Mrs. Bernie. I will spend a small fortune on cat food to feed Dutch, Marv, Lou, Nellie and Big Man. That’s our five cats, and they run the joint. I work for them. I answer to them. Meow.

I will spend too much time streaming VSIN because I enjoy watching and listening to sharp gamblers talk about their sports–investment recommendations. I will keep my blood pressure down and please my doctors. I will listen to a lot of music as I write and relax. My latest obsessions are Sarah Jarosz (new album on Jan. 24), Dylan Gossett, Bleachers, Tommy Prine and Yo La Tengo.

A few obligatory sports predictions:

– The Cardinals will return to the postseason – and after that, it’s up to them.

– Mizzou football will have a good 2024 but won’t make the 12-team playoff. The Big Ten and the SEC will be even more loaded next season with high-profile additions Texas, Oklahoma, Washington and Oregon. And we can expect bounce-back seasons from two or three SEC teams that had down years in 2023 based on preseason expectations. But Mizzou will be in the hunt.

– Oli Marmol will remain as manager as long as the Cardinals qualify for the playoffs. If they fail to make the playoffs, all bets are off. But it’s premature to declare Yadier Molina as a potential successor. And should the Cardinals make the change, don’t rule out Daniel Descalso. But as long as Marmol can get all of the players fully behind him – and competing with more intensity this season – his job security will strengthen.

– Another postseason-bound season for St. Louis City SC, but it will be more of a struggle to get there this time around. Pardon my reality check, but in its first MLS season St. Louis City substantially overperformed in expected goal difference – by about 25 goals – and that will likely normalize in 2024.

– Saint Louis U. athletic director Chris May will be under increasing pressure to hire a new men’s basketball coach. The latest KenPom projections have SLU winning only two more games this season … and a 12-19 record overall including a 5-13 mark in conference play.

— The Cardinals will go bigger than we expect to secure a high-leverage reliever before the end of the offseason. During the season John Mozeliak will be looking for pitching help to reinforce the staff at the trading deadline. But on the relief front, no, I don’t think the Cardinals will offer Hader $100 million. Prove me wrong.

– Prospects Thomas Saggese (infielder) and Tekoah Roby (starting pitcher) will be promoted to St. Louis soon after the All-Star break. They came over in the deal that sent starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery and reliever Chris Stratton to Texas.

– The Blues will have ups and down and muddle along in their two-season holding pattern until their next-generation players make the jump to the NHL.

— No postseason for the Blues, but that’s hardly a bold prediction.

– Michigan will defeat Washington to win the national college football championship on Monday night.

– Hope I’m wrong, but if my sources are speaking the truth and reading the situation properly, Torry Holt will be kept waiting for the call from Canton and enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

– St. Louis fans will remain madly in love with their St. Louis Battlehawks. As they should.

– On the NFL front, St. Louis will continue to grow the allegiance to the Kansas City Chiefs. They’re already popular here, and the interest level is rising. TV ratings in STL for Chiefs games are robust.

READING TIME, SEVEN MINUTES

Here’s Jeff Passan (ESPN) writing on the free-agent reliever market: “The question now is whether Josh Hader will reach the nine-figure threshold, a mark only Edwin Diaz has exceeded (five years, $102.5 million) among relievers, or whether he’s likelier to wind up in the Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85 million) and Kenley Jansen (five years, $80 million) territory. The fact that January has arrived with no clear favorite, multiple executives said, suggests the latter is more probable. Hader, 29, isn’t the only reliever facing a slow market. At 27, right-hander Jordan Hicks is the youngest domestic free agent available and runs his fastball up to 105 mph. Following his June 2 trade to Tampa Bay, right-hander Robert Stephenson struck out 42.9% of batters he faced and walked just 5.7%, positively silly numbers. While the market for both recently started to pick up, it’s hard to square the notion that the three best relievers are still available in a game that relies so much on bullpens. Whether it’s the Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros or perhaps another front office that sees the opportunity for a smart deal, teams trying to win understand how much better their bullpens will be with any of the three. And Hector Neris, Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson and others will do just fine as well.”

Beginning with Thursday night’s home game against Vancouver, the Blues will take on a challenging slate of games on their schedule. In the next eight games they’ll play Vancouver, Carolina, Florida, NY Rangers, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington (twice.) The seven opponents are a combined 153-77-27 for a collective points percentage of .647. Six of the teams are in line for a playoff spot, and the Capitals are tied for the second wild-card in the East. Here’s where the seven opponents rank in the overall NHL standings based on points percentage: Boston (1), New York (2), Vancouver (4), Florida (8), Carolina (11), Washington (13) and Philadelphia (15). Good luck, boys.

A follow-up note on my column about Walt Jocketty and why the retired GM should be in the Cardinals’ Hall of Fame: in Walt’s 13 seasons as head of the St. Louis baseball operations the Cardinals were ranked in the top among MLB franchises in annual payroll seven times, but were never higher than 6th in a season. In their six seasons outside of the top 10 in payroll, the Cardinals ranked anywhere from 11th to 16th. Their MLB payroll average over the 13 seasons was 10.3 among big-league franchises.

In his latest SEC Vibe Check, Seth Emerson (The Athletic) put Mizzou at the top of the rankings that now include newcomers Texas and Oklahoma. “Given where Missouri was this time last year, the vibes are better in Eli Drinkwitz’s program than anywhere else in the new 16-team league,” Emerson wrote. “In one year, Mizzou went from middling team that will be dwarfed in the new SEC to much-respected program that will be on the radar for the Playoff next year. Quarterback Brady Cook is back, receiver Luther Burden is back, so many are back from a team that gave Georgia its toughest game in the regular season, beat Ohio State, and has a manageable schedule next year.”

As of Thursday morning the Cardinals ranked seventh in the majors in offseason payroll spending – guaranteed money only. The top six spenders so far are the Dodgers ($1.043 billion) Phillies ($172.2 million), Diamondbacks ($122 million) Giants ($121.25 million), Reds ($106.2 million) and Royals ($105 million.) Next are the Cardinals with $99 million guaranteed for Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. As for the other NL Central teams: the Cubs haven’t spent a dollar, the Pirates have invested $16.2 million and Brewers have made $11.25 million in guarantees.

Mizzou defensive coordinator should stay in CoMo instead of accepting a generous offer from LSU to run the defense for head coach Brian Kelly. LSU has a more prestigious program nationally and can outspend just about anyone. Baker has roots in that region of the nation. And he worked at LSU before Kelly fired him when taking over as head coach after the 2021 season. Baker recently agreed to a significantly sweetened contract at Mizzou. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz believes in Baker, gave Baker a rebound opportunity after the sacking at LSU, and made sure that Baker was financially rewarded for his excellent work with the MU defense. Why would Baker leave an ascendant program that has demonstrate its unconditional loyalty to him? To rejoin the staff fo a coach that fired him? Baker should do what he wants, of course. But he knows he can trust Drinkwitz. Why would he assume he could trust Kelly?

Blues captain Brayden Schenn did not score a goal in December, getting blanked in 14 games. And he closed the 2023 portion of the season schedule without an assist in 10 consecutive games … after scoring four goals and adding four assists in his first five games under interim Blues coach Drew Bannister, Jordan Kyrou has gone scoreless in his last three games … The Blues’ Robert Thomas ranks fifth among NHL forwards – and is third among centers – with 32 points at even strength. Through Wednesday, the only forwards ahead of Thomas are Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel and Connor McDavid.

St. Louis Bradley Beal has returned to the court for the Phoenix Suns after recovering from a sprained ankle. In his first four games back, Beal averaged 18.3 points and made 49 percent of his shots from the floor overall – but hit only 2 of 13 from three-point distance. The Suns went 3-1 in the four games. Injuries to his back and ankle have caused Beal to miss 24 of the Suns’ first 34 games. Beal’s first season with Phoenix hasn’t been easy and he’s still getting acclimated to his new teammates. “I mean, every game he’s played in, there’s been a minutes restriction,” Suns forward Kevin Durant said. “He’s been in and out of the game. The more and more he plays, the more confidence we get as a group.”

Sonny Gray I: It’s 2024, and by now you’d think that most if not all baseball fans (and media) would understand all of the factors that go into a pitcher’s individual won-lost record. It’s a team sport, you know. To maximize their win-loss record, starting pitchers need run support, solid defense, and a solid performance by the bullpen. New Cardinal Sonny Gray went 8-8 for the Twins last season – a fact that’s been noted with disdain by growling fans in an attempt to malign the pitcher and criticize the three-year, $75 million contract they gave him. What’s so special about an 8-8 record? Why did the Cardinals spend this kind of money on an 8-8 pitcher?

Sonny Gray II: Good grief. Why wasn’t Gray’s record better than 8-8? Why did his team have a losing record in his starts? I have answers – not that it matters to the people who judge a starter only on won-loss record while ignoring the meaningful factors that shaped the record. Last season Gray ranked 53rd among 58 American League starting pitchers in run support. Four of Gray’s losses occurred when he provided a quality start – the second-highest “tough loss” total by an AL starter. Gray allowed no more than three earned runs in five of his eight “losses.” Gray had a large total of no-decisions, with 16. But in all of his 16 no decisions he never gave up more than three earned runs. He didn’t allow more than two runs in 11 of the 16. He wasn’t touched for more than a single run in seven no-decision starts. His ERA in the 16 no-decision starts was 2.75.

Sonny Gray III: In 2023 Gray led AL starters with a 2.83 fielding independent ERA, was second in standard ERA (2.79), was tied for first with 5.3 WAR, ranked seventh in average game score, and was 11th in quality starts. He allowed three earned runs of fewer in 29 of 32 starts. But, hey, forget all of that stuff – WHAT ABOUT THAT LOUSY 8-8?

Kyle Gibson is another example of why it’s important to expand our minds instead of acting like it’s still 1934 when assessing a starter’s performance. I’m enthusiastic about Gibson joining the Cardinals on a one-year contract with a team option for a second season; he was a definite asset for a 2023 Baltimore team that led the American League with 101 wins. Gibson was sixth among AL starters in innings, 10th in quality starts, 14th in fielding-independent ERA (4.13) and 15th in WAR. Those are strong numbers for a No. 5 or No. 4 starter. But as much as I like Gibson, his individual 15-9 record is misleading. In Gibson’s 33 starts last season, the Orioles scored an average of 6.1 runs while Gibson was in the game. That was the second-highest run support average for an AL starter and the fourth-highest among all major-league starters. Gibson certainly did his share in collecting 15 wins, but he had a lot of help from Baltimore’s offense and bullpen. And it’s silly to ignore that.

It’s good to be Anthony Becht: The XFL and USFL merged into an eight-team spring-football league and he’ll be back for his second year as Battlehawks coach. And his son – Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht – was named the Big 12’s Offensive Freshman of the Year for 2023. On Dec. 29, Rocco set an Iowa State record for passing yards in a game (446) in a 36-36 loss to Memphis in the Liberty Bowl. He completed 22 of 38 passes, with three going for touchdowns. As the Des Moines Register noted: “A freshman All-American, the Floridian quickly became the face of the program, not only with his actions on the field but also with his humility and front-and-center rapport with reporters after victories and losses,” … Coach Becht and his wife DeeAnn will be spending a lot of time at Iowa State football games again in 2024.

The Blues are 5-3 since sacking Stanley-Cup winning coach Craig Berube. And while there’s been some improvement on the special teams, shots on goal differential, and expected goal share at five-on-five, the Blues are getting hammered in the high danger areas. Since the coaching change the Blues have been outscored 12-5 in high-danger goals at five-on-five. That’s an HD goal share of just 42 percent which ranks 29th in the NHL since Dec. 14. Under Berube the Blues were outscored by two (36-34) in high-danger scoring for a 48.6% share that ranked 20th in the league at the time of Berube’s dismissal. There’s been a drop in five-on-five save percentage since the coaching swap. Under Berube the Blues ranked 15th with a .911 save percentage and are 22nd (.901 save rate) since installing Drew Bannister behind the bench.

Former Cardinals manager Mike Shildt will not have a bench coach as he takes over as manager of the Padres for 2024. Interesting. I have a theory on this: after being fired in St. Louis, Shildt wants to make sure he’s in charge at the field level in San Diego, and he doesn’t want a bench coach to be in place to possibly usurp his power behind the scenes. The front-office operation in San Diego is notoriously meddlesome, and the dugout operation has been plagued by angling, scheming, politicking and backbiting. I don’t think Shildt and Marmol had a great relationship near the end of Shilty’s time here.

In the ZiPS forecast for 2024, nine Cardinal regulars (or key backups) are projected to have above-average seasons offensively. Here’s the rundown, using OPS+, and keep in mind that 100 is the league average: Paul Goldschmidt 124, Jordan Walker 122, Lars Nootbaar 118, Nolan Gorman 116, Nolan Arenado 116, Willson Contreras 112, Brendan Donovan 108, Dylan Carlson 108, Alec Burleson 106. None of those OPS+ figures qualify as excellent, but there’s nothing wrong with having a bunch of above-average hitters. There were below-average forecasts for Tommy Edman (99), Ivan Herrera (91) and Masyn Winn (88). Bernie comment: Brendan Donovan will do better than that.

Here’s a synopsis of the St. Louis offense from ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs: “There’s certainly some risk with this team — there are several players who are likely in their decline phase and St. Louis isn’t the absolutely phenomenal defensive club it was a few years ago. Nobody projects as a superstar, but there isn’t any gaping hole in the lineup, either. The Cards remain a very Cards-looking offense.”

Adam Rittenberg (ESPN) chose running back Cody Schrader as Missouri’s MVP for 2023. “There are several good options at Missouri, both on offense — Schrader, quarterback Brady Cook, wide receiver Luther Burden III — and defense with Kris Abrams-Draine,” Rittenberg wrote. “But Schrader gets the nod after leading the SEC in rushing (1,627 yards), becoming a finalist for the Doak Walker Award and earning first-team AP All-America honors. He finished the regular season with five consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, eclipsing 200 yards in wins against Tennessee and Arkansas, and had 128 yards with a touchdown on 29 carries in a Cotton Bowl win over Ohio State. Schrader also had a rushing touchdown in each of his final nine regular-season contests.” A Mizzou source told Rittenberg this: “Just the individual performance, led the SEC in rushing, we don’t beat Tennessee without him. We probably don’t beat a couple teams without Luther. That’s a tough combination.”

Baseball America is touting Nolan Gorman as a good-value target among second basemen for your 2024 Fantasy Baseball team. “Always considered a slugging infielder as a minor leaguer, Gorman validated the scouting reports by hitting 27 homers in 464 plate appearances in 2023 until (injuries) ended his season in September,” Dylan White wrote. “Considering he’ll be only 23 years old when the 2024 season begins, he seems to be undervalued as a dynasty second baseman. There are some caveats. Gorman’s defensive value may drive him to first base or designated hitter, especially considering his fringy arm strength isn’t a great fit at third base. His strikeout rate may never allow him to post a batting average above .250 in his career. But considering he is one of only a few second basemen who could conceivably average 25 to 30 home runs for the next five years, Gorman is an undervalued target.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

All stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Fielding Bible. Baseball Prospectus, Bill James Online or Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

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When team captain Alex Pietrangelo left the Blues for a stratospheric free-agent deal with the Vegas Golden Knights, I didn’t participate in the blame game. My feelings could be summed up in four parts. 1. Petro was a fantastic all-purpose, indefatigable defenseman over his 10 full seasons in St. Louis. He was one the most […]

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW There’s an old but true statement that applies to all teams in all sports: Your best players have to be your best players. And this adage certainly applies to the 2023 Cardinals. If their best players fail to come through, then how can the Redbirds play consistent, winning baseball? The best hitters […]

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The Cardinals are rising to the occasion lately and we talk it over with Ben Frederickson. Can we say that Willson Contreras is the catcher now? We take a look at the power coming from the team and if that offense is sustainable. Matthew Liberatore made a big start this week. Should they stay with a 6 man rotation? Are Blues fans weepy watching Tkachuk’s success? We get into Caleb Love, NIL money and Mizzou hoops. How about SLU hoops news? A quiet off-season so far. Some discussion on the future of the Battlehawks as well. Listen here:

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WELCOME TO THE REDBIRD REVIEW

THE LEDE: In ransacking Arizona on Wednesday the Cardinals scored 14 runs, chunked 13 hits, drew four walks, and triggered seven extra–base hits including two hitters. Stat of the day: The Redbirds won 14-5 on a day when Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado were a combined 0 for 7 – which means that the other Cardinals had 13 hits (.448) with four doubles, a triple, the two homers and 13 RBI in ONLY 29 at–bats. That’s pretty good, eh?

WHAT DID WE LEARN? It’s a familiar subject: Hitting performance with runners in scoring position. For the most part the Cardinals have what every offense needs to be successful. Through Wednesday, the Cardinals were fourth in MLB in batting average (.274), second in onbase percentage (.354), 7th in slugging (.441), second in OPS (.795) and are 20 percent above league average offensively per OPS+. Their home-run count could be higher; the Cardinals have gone deep with a homer every 28.7 at-bats, which is 11th-best in the majors.

But as we all know, the Cardinals have been lagging in runs scored this season because of their problems at the plate when set up with runners in scoring position. That’s why, at one point this week, the Redbirds were down to 19th in the majors in average runs per game.

Wednesday the Cardinals went 7 for 15 with runners in scoring position and scored two touchdowns worth of runs. And that was enough to put them at 12th in the majors with an average of 4.79 runs per game.

Two quickie stats:

– In their 11 losses this season the Cardinals have batted .183 with runners in scoring position and averaged 3.1 runs per game.

– In their eight victories the Cardinals have hit .354 with runners in scoring position and averaged 7.1 runs per game.

These types of splits are generally predictable and true of all teams. But I’m writing about the Cardinals, and I wanted to just point out the obvious impact of RISP performance – good or bad.

The Cardinals do many things right on offense. This team hits for average and has MLB’s sixth-highest walk rate. Except for their inconsistency in driving in runs – reflected by their MLB-worst 154 men left on base – the Cardinals have the necessary components for an elite offense.

In the meaningful wRC+ metric – runs created after adjusting for park-and-league effects – St. Louis is No. 3 in the majors at 18 percent above average. That’s the best by a National League team, and the only offenses that have done better overall are American Leaguers Tampa Bay and Baltimore.

When the Cardinals do an above-average job of hitting with runners in scoring position, their offense comes together and is more complete. The RISP stuff fluctuates during the long season, cycling up and down for every team. Hitting with runners in scoring isn’t a science, or even a specific skill. But a team can help itself by taking higher-quality plate appearances and showing poise under pressure. The Cardinals can be one of those teams.

“I feel like we’ve talked about it every day and haven’t been able to do what we did today,” manager Oli Marmol told reporters after the game, referring to the RISP challenge. “We like our approach, we like our swings, we like how we’re handling the bat, and we haven’t been able to cash in the amount of runs that we like. But today that was not the case. That is what our offense is capable of doing on any given day.”

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals went 3-4 on their homestand, and are 5-4 in their last nine games … Wednesday’s win improved the Cards home record to 5-8 this season … the Cardinals are 8-11 on the season for a .421 winning percentage that ranks 23rd overall and 11th in the National League … the Brewers, Pirates and Cubs all won on Wednesday, leaving the Cardinals six games behind Milwaukee and four games behind Chicago and Pittsburgh … The Cardinals lost ground during their homestand. When they ended the series at Colorado with two straight wins, the Cardinals trailed the Brewers by three games, the Pirates by two games, and the Cubs by 1 and ½.

STAR OF THE GAME: The obvious choice is shortstop Tommy Edman, who assaulted the Diamondbacks for a double, triple, homer and five RBI. The switch-hitting Edman – who struggles against right-handed pitching – went 1 for 2 with a triple against an Arizona RH pitcher Wednesday.

Unfortunately for switch-hitters Edman and Dylan Carlson – who are outstanding against left-handed pitching – the Cardinals don’t face many lefties. This may surprise you, but only 19 percent of STL’s plate appearances so far this season have been taken against lefties. Edman has only 13 plate appearances this season against LHP and is 9 for 12 (.750) with two doubles, two homers, and four RBI. Carlson has just 11 PA vs. lefties this year and is 3 for 10 with a double, a walk and an RBI.

YOUNG AT HEART: Cardinals age 25 or younger are carrying a big share of the team’s load offensively this season. The youngbloods are batting .272 with a .352 OBP, .473 slug and an .825 OPS. They’ve combined for 11 homers and 41 RBI. That’s 46 percent of the team’s RBI, and 47.8% of the home runs. Here are the six St. Louis hitters in their age-25 seasons or younger: Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbar, Dylan Carlson and Juan Yepez. That’s more impressive when we consider that the six young dudes have accounted for 36 percent of the STL’s plate appearances.

GA-GA OVER GORMAN: The 22-year-old slugger walloped a grand-slam homer against Arizona in Wednesday’s wins. To say that his early-season success is impressive qualifies as a massive understatement.

+ The second-year DH and second baseman leads the Cardinals in 12 categories: bWAR, batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, RBI, extra-base hits, total bases, OPS, OPS+, wRC+, Isolated Power, and wOBA. And Gorman is second on the team in onbase percentage and walk rate.

+ Gorman is 87 percent above league average offensively per OPS+. And 76% above league average in adjusted runs created (wRC+).

+ His 18 RBI are five more than any other Cardinal.

+ Gorman has homered every 11.4 at-bats.

+ Gorman’s .649 slugging percentage is 56 percent higher than that of Paul Goldschmidt, who ranks second on the team.

+ Gorman’s Isolated Power rate, .333, is 154 points above Goldschmidt, and 213 points above Nolan Arenado.

+ Gorman’s 18 RBI rank second in the National League. He’s third in the NL in slugging, fourth in OPS (1.052), fourth in OPS+, fourth in wRC+, and tied for fifth in homers. (Minimum 50 plate appearances.)

+ Among MLB hitters that are age 23 or younger, Gorman ranks first in homers, RBIs, batting average, onbase percentage, slugging, OPS, OPS+, bWAR, and wOBA. (Minimum 50 plate appearances.)

+ Since making his MLB debut for the Cardinals on May 20 last season, Gorman has homered every 17.8 at-bats, is slugging .459, has raised his OPS to .777 and has performed 20 percent above league average offensively per OPS+. After collapsing offensively late last season, Gorman’s intense offseason changes are paying off.

+ As a rookie last season, Gorman batted .180 with a .542 OPS against pitchers that had a 3.50 ERA or better. This season — small sample and all of that — he’s batting .286 with an .839 OPS against the same caliber of pitchers.

“He’s been very good, but I’m more impressed with his routine and overall demeanor,” Marmol said postgame, after the Gorman slam. “Regardless of how the at-bat looks, there are certain at-bats that haven’t gone his way, and you look in the dugout and you can’t tell the difference. He’s just even keel, taking it as it goes. He’s having a very productive season.”

FUN MATCHUP IN SEATTLE: When the Cardinals play three games against the Mariners this weekend, the series will feature the two best hitters in the majors who are age 23 or younger this season. And it isn’t Jordan Walker vs. Julio Rodriguez.

It’s Gorman vs. Seattle outfielder Jarred Kelenic.

In the 23-or-younger class, Gorman and Kelenic rank 1st and 2nd in the majors (respectively) in batting average, onbase percentage, slugging, OPS and OPS+. Gorman leads the group with five homers and Kelenic is tied for second with four bombs.

It’s astonishing to me, the way Gorman’s early-season attack is largely being overlooked by locals that are busy obsessing over Jordan Walker. Sure, Gorman must show that he can keep this up; I’m well aware of that. But as of RIGHT NOW, Gorman’s numbers tell a helluva story that’s been missed or ignored by too many folks that should know better. Again: Gorman leads St. Louis hitters in 12 categories and is outperforming the other major-league hitters that are 23 years old or younger.

WILLSON CONTRERAS, QUICK-FIRE OFFENSE: A week ago, after a 5-0 loss to the Pirates, Contreras had no home runs, one double and just two RBI in 12 games. (Whoa.) He was batting .195 with a .283 onbase percentage. (Really bad.) His slugging percentage was down to .220. (Shockingly bad.) And among big-league hitters that had at least 45 plate appearances, Contreras had an OPS (.502) that ranked 149th on a list of 155 players.

Six games later, Contreras has a .274 average, .357 OBP, .452 slug, and a .805 OPS with two homers, five doubles and nine RBIs. That didn’t take long, eh? Contreras regenerated his offense over six games by hitting .429, smashing two homers and four doubles, and driving in seven runs.He did all of that in only 24 plate appearances.

With the blast of offense, Contreras now has moved into the top six among MLB catchers in WAR, batting average, onbase percentage, slugging and OPS. It didn’t take long for Contreras to go from being one of the worst-hitting catchers to one of the top-hitting catchers. That’s no surprise. Not to me. Two reasons (1) this isn’t the NFL, with a 17-game regular season. In big-league baseball, every team plays 162 regular-season games. And (2) since 2016, Contreras has amassed the best OPS among catchers that have at least 1,500 plate appearances over that time.

CONTRERAS VS. MADISON BUMGARNER: Arizona’s cranky old lefthander took exception to the way Contreras reacted – with instant frustration – after fouling off a pitch he should have launched into the ozone. Contreras was mad at himself, and this wasn’t anyone else’s business. But that didn’t matter. Bumgarner glared and barked at Contreras. Mad Bum went into his tiresome act as the self-appointed enforcer who confronts opponents that Aren’t Playing The Game The Right Way.

This fake tough-guy routine used to be kind of funny; now it’s pathetic. Bumgarner used to be a great pitcher, especially for the Giants in the postseason. But he’s a caricature now. Since signing a deal with Arizona before the 2020 season, Bumgarner has a 5.23 ERA and an ERA+ that’s 20 percent below the MLB average. In his last 18 starts, going back to last season, Bumgarner has a 6.84 ERA and has gotten pounded by right-handed hitters for a .319 batting average, a .567 slug, and just under two home runs per nine innings pitched.

Bumgarner should be more concerned about embarrassing himself by pitching so poorly after signing a five-year, $85 million contract with the D-backs. Instead, he still goes nuts over opponents that bug him by competing with emotion and flaie. He thinks it’s 1958 or something. Bumgarner isn’t in charge of anything. He’s 36 years old and nearing the end. After the Cardinals pummeled Bumgarner on Wednesday for seven hits, four walks and seven earned runs in four innings, his ERA ballooned to 10.26 on the season.

I enjoyed it when Contreras ended the at-bat against Bumgarner by drawing a walk then pimping it by flipping his bat. I don’t think Bumgarner really wants to mess with Contreras. The physical confrontation would leave Bumgarner looking a lot worse than his ERA.

“I think he didn’t like the way I swung at the fastball,” Contreras said of Bumgarner when speaking to reporters after Wednesday’s game. “I never looked back at him or anything like that. I think he didn’t appreciate that. When I turned around I knew he was saying something to me. If he’s getting mad about that, what can I say? It’s part of the game. If he says something to me, I will say something back. For me, it’s like a mind game right there. But thankfully I got on his mind. He blew up in that inning.”

OBLIGATORY ROTATION UPDATE: After a brief upturn, three St. Louis starters got roughed up by Arizona during the three-game series. Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery and Jake Woodford collectively allowed 21 hits, four homers and 17 earned runs in 15 innings for an ERA of 10.20.

Nineteen games into the 2023 campaign, the St. Louis rotation ranks 25th among 30 teams with a 5.60 ERA, and 23rd with a 5.08 fielding-independent ERA.

I’m fascinated by the hard-sell media narrative that wants us to believe Cardinal starters are the poor, unlucky victims of soft-contact crime. The truth: Opponents have battered St. Louis starters for a .508 slugging percentage, the fifth highest in the majors against a starting rotation. The .311 batting average against STL starters can partially be explained by a high .352 average on balls in play. I’ll give you that. But in assessing the rotation we can’t overlook the .508 slugging percentage against them. Or the home-run rate of 1.4 homers yielded per nine innings. Or the 28 combined doubles and triples given up by the starters.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE REAL PROBLEM: Including relievers, St. Louis pitchers have been struck for a 45 percent hard-hit rate that’s the highest against any pitching staff in the majors. And the 90.3 mph average exit velocity against Cardinal pitchers is the fourth-highest against an MLB pitching staff.

Now, what about the starters-only breakdown? Here you go: the hard-hit percentage against St. Louis starters is 46.3%, the second-highest (as in worst) rate in the majors. And opponents have an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph against STL starters – the fourth highest against a major-league rotation so far this season.

So far, the overall MLB hard-hit rate against starting pitchers is 39.3 percent. Among Cardinal starters, Jack Flaherty, has been hit with a hard-hit rate (34.6%) that’s under the MLB average. Here are hard-hit percentages against the other four starters: Jake Woodford (60.3%), Steven Matz (49%), Jordan Montgomery (45.2%) and Miles Mikolas (42.7%).

POSITIVE STEPS FOR JORDAN WALKER: Before Wednesday’s game, the rookie outfielder had batted .156 since April 9th, a slump that included one hit and six strikeouts in 16 at-bats during the homestand. In the final game of the series against Arizona, Walker stabilized his hitting performance by going 2 for 4 with a walk, RBI and three runs scored.

The Cardinals and their fans hope this will lead to a positive restart for the 20-year-old. Slumps are inevitable. All that matters is how fast you get through them. As a hitter, Walker is growing up in the majors, facing mostly experienced big-league pitchers. So his challenge is more difficult than the usual standards.

With a healthy day at the plate Wednesday, Walker raised his batting average to .269, but he’s slugging only .194 with a 29% strikeout rate since hitting his second home run of the season on April 8, Walker has a poor 40.4 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone, is swinging at too many pitches overall (56%), has a swing–miss rate of 16.5% – and 60 percent of his batted balls in play have been ground balls.

KNOW THY ENEMY

* After defeating the Cardinals in two of three games at Milwaukee, the Brewers went west for a nine-game road trip and went 7-2 against Arizona, San Diego and Seattle. The Crew (14-5) won four of five against the Padres and Mariners including a three-game sweep at Seattle. Milwaukee starters had a 3.34 ERA in the nine games.

* The Cubs (11-6) went 5-1 on their road trip to LA (Dodgers) and Oakland. In their three-game sweep at Oakland the Cubs outscored the woeful A’s by a 26-3 margin. That lifted the Cubs run-scoring average to 5.82 per game, third in MLB and No. 1 in the NL During the 5-1 trip Cubs pitching allowed eight total earned runs in 53.2 innings for a 1.34 ERA.

* After splitting their four-game series in St. Louis, the Pirates headed to Coors Field and swept their three-game set against the Rockies. The Pirates (12-7) outscored Colorado 33-9 in the three straight wins. This hitting spree elevated the Bucs to a tie with the Dodgers for second place in the NL in runs scored per game, 5.21. The Pirates have moved up to No. 2 in the NL in slugging (,449) and they have a .299 average and .856 OPS with runners in scoring positions.

* After winning three of four to open the season, the Reds have gone 4-10 to fall to an overall 7-11 record … This week the Reds upset Tampa Bay 8-1 in the first of three games – then were hammered in two consecutive losses to the Rays by a combined 18-0 score. Cincinnati pitching has a 5.96 ERA during their 4-10 slump.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app.

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

Listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on your preferred podcast platform. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

All stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Bill James Online and Baseball Prospectus.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Timely Hitting = Elevated Offense. And Nolan Gorman Deserves More Attention. appeared first on Scoops.

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BERNIE BITS

Greetings. Are ya ready for the weekend?

ST. LOUIS CITY FC: looking for a couple of goals and a win: That’s the mission when the impressive FC Cincinnati visits CityPark on Saturday night. City (5-2) has dropped two straight, getting blanked by Minnesota and Seattle. This isn’t a big deal. This darling expansion club is way ahead of the expectations and some regression was inevitable.

With 15 goals in the bank – tied for second on the circuit – City has outperformed their expected 9.8 goals. That tells us that the prolific early scoring total was due for a correction of sorts, and that’s what happened in the last two matches. Even then, City deserved a better result than the 1-0 loss to Minnesota.

After enduring two consecutive shutouts, City are tied for No. 2 in the MLS with a rate of 2.0 goals scored per 90 minutes. That’s among the reasons why this should be a compelling match. Cincinnati are tenacious and notoriously stingy and have given up four total goals in seven matches – or to put it another way, an average of an average of 0.57 goals per 90 minutes. That’s the fourth-best rate in the MLS.

The cliche factory believes this will be a hard-nosed match, and City’s style fits the description. St. Louis leads the MLS in tackles and blocks. Sneaky Cincinnati leads in interceptions but has been held to a goal or fewer in five of seven games. Both teams like to pressure the other side, create disruption and pounce on sudden mistakes. This should be a good one.

Welcome home to the St. Louis soccer legend Pat Noonan – FC Cincinnati’s excellent coach – but City should rally up and dig out a close win. Then again I’m a fan of City and it’s my new passion … so of course I think Klauss, Lowen and the boys will take this one. CityPark will be vibrating.

I’ll be glued to Apple TV, undoubtedly holding a fine product brewed by Urban Chestnut.

A NEUTRAL VIEW: In a column entitled “Pressure Rises,” Tom Bogert of MLSsoccer.com put St. Louis City SC on a list of four teams that need a win in Matchday 8.

“No matter what happens this weekend, St. Louis CITY SC have experienced a stellar start to life in MLS,” Bogert wrote. “Despite losing two games in a row, the pressure they face is of a lesser order … still, Saturday night’s tilt at CITYPARK against FC Cincinnati is a big game and presents a chance for Bradley Carnell’s team to reassert themselves in the national conversation.

“Cincy have 17 points after seven matches, currently atop the (early) Supporters’ Shield race and Eastern Conference. They are among the best teams in the league and have a similar high-pressing ethos as St. Louis. It should be a fun game.”

THE BLUES: That didn’t take long. The Blues have sacked assistant coaches Craig MacTavish and Mike Van Ryn. The moves were expected so no one should be surprised. The Note lost substantial brainpower when the excellent assistant Jim Montgomery left to become the head coach of the Boston Bruins.

Assistant Steve Ott will be back next season, and that’s a positive. Ott oversees the team’s power play that slumped to No. 19 in the NHL this season after being No. 2 last season. The Blues front office let David Perron walk as a free-agent after he triggered much of the power-play success in 2022-2023. And with that decision, the Blues lost the 11 power–play goals Perron produced by Perron in 2022-23. And without Perron in place to convert on the PP, Ryan O’Reilly had only four power-play assists for the Blues this season in 56 games. If you want to blame Ott for that, fine. I’m just a dishwasher compared to the many Scotty Bowman wannabes out there.

The Blues obviously had serious personnel issues – especially among their defensemen, which was Van Ryn’s area – and couldn’t fix an embarrassingly inept, 30th-ranked penalty-killing performance. I’m a Craig Berube fan, but if the Blues exhibit many of the same bad traits that brought them down this season, the coach will feel the heat.

SIMPLE WISH LIST FOR THE BLUES: The Blues need a solid third center who can be a stopgap for a season or two until some of their young talent is ready for the NHL. Pavel Buchnevich was moved to center during the season but is better on the wing. And GM Doug Armstrong must defray the overall payroll cost by moving a high-priced defenseman to create roster space and flexibility. Of course, if The Note’s 3.5% chance to win the first pick in the 2023 NHL entry draft comes through as a longshot, I’d be OK with the addition of Connor Bedard. (Intentional understatement.)

JORDAN WALKER: BASERUNNING AND DEFENSE: There’s some fussing going on over Walker’s minus 0.1 WAR … which technically means he’s a tick below the replacement level. First of all, it’s too early to care about WAR. But he’s learning how to play right field – and doing it for the first time at Busch Stadium. And that isn’t an easy assignment for a converted third baseman that’s still only 20 years old. Fielding Bible has Walker at minus 4 runs saved defensively, which is the worst among MLB right fielders. And his -2 Outs Above Average are near the bottom of the right-field ratings. FanGraphs has Walker ranked as a below-average baserunner. It’s too early to know if that’s right or wrong. But Walker hasn’t cost the Cardinals any outs as a baserunner. He has a steal for a +1 net baserunning gain. The thing that “dings” him in the baserunning metrics is this: Walker hasn’t advanced from first to third base on a single on five opportunities. And he hasn’t scored from second base on a single in his lone opportunity. It’s early. He’s developing.

I HAVE A FEELING THAT: (1) Playing Tyler O’Neill in center field is more of a John Mozeliak decision than an Oli Marmol decision; (2) Randy Arozarena would still be a Cardinal if then-manager Mike Shildt hadn’t disliked him. Remember Arozarena’s live-streaming recording of Shildt screaming profanities in the clubhouse after the Cards eliminated the Braves in the 2019 NLDS? Bye-bye, Randy. Next, (3) the Battlehawks will need starting quarterback A.J. McCarron to return to the lineup to beat Seattle at the dome this weekend. McCarron missed last week’s contest with a shoulder injury. And though the Battlehawks beat Las Vegas with No. 2 quarterback Nick Tiano, Seattle (5-3) is better than Vegas and is especially desperate for a win in the quest for a playoff spot.

HELLO, MATTHEW LIBERATORE: The tall, talented lefty is off to an impressive start at Triple A Memphis. In his first three starts, Libby has worked 17 innings, allowed 10 hits and two earned runs, and posted a sparkling 1.06 ERA. And perhaps best of all, Liberatore has struck out 37% of his 65 batters faced. The walk rate (10.7%) is on the high side – but hey, at least that gives him something to work on until Cardinals management decides it’s time to call him up to the big club. I don’t know when that will be, or what will go into the decision. Who knows, Liberatore could appear in the St. Louis bullpen. His stuff is that good. He’s aggressively attacking hitters with his fastball and a wicked curve that would make Adam Wainwright proud of him.

THE CROWDED OUTFIELD: When Lars Nootbaar returns he’ll join an outfield cast that currently includes Jordan Walker, Tyler O’Neill, Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson and Juan Yepez. And Brendan Donovan has played out there, too.

This group is off to a good start, ranking 12th in the majors and fifth in the NL with 117 wRC+, the adjusted metric for runs created. It means the Redbird outfielders are 17 percent above league average offensively. And that was compiled with Nootbaar playing only one game because of a thumb injury. These guys will do better going forward, and Marmol will have no shortage of good options to call on.

Out of curiosity, I wanted to compare STL’s early-season outfield offense to their recent seasons. And keep in mind that 100 is average in wRC+, and you want to see that number rise above 100:

St. Louis outfield wRC+ from 2016 through 2023:

2016: 103
2017: 113
2018: 102
2019: 101
2020: 86
2021: 110
2022: 105
2023: 117

I think I’d choose those group over, say, the 2018 outfield that had Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tommy Pham and Jose Martinez log the most playing time. Some good names there, but that year the STL outfield performed only one percent above league average offensively.

WILL LEITCH ON THE CARDINALS: Writing for MLB.com, My “Seeing Red” podcast partner chose starting pitcher Miles Mikolas as the Cardinals’ biggest early-season surprise.

“Mikolas is not reveling in his extension,” Leitch wrote. “The Cardinals gave Mikolas a contract extension right before his Opening Day start, and he has followed that up by getting hit hard in each of his first three outings. He has a 10.05 ERA so far, and the Cardinals look desperate for Adam Wainwright to come back and save their rotation.”

Thanks for reading …

Pardon my typos …

Have the best weekend …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie Bits: Will St. Louis City SC Get Back On Track? Plus: Blues, Cards, Battlehawks — And Comparing Outfields. appeared first on Scoops.

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Ben Frederickson comes in to talk about a weekend feast for St. Louis sports fans. Minus the Blues, our city has a ton going on this weekend in sports. We get into the Cardinals lackluster few weeks and questions on the horizon. Is it too early to panic? What happens when Nootbaar returns? How far away is Adam Wainwright? We also get into the Battlehawks final few games and what their playoff situation may be. We also talk about Blues plans for next season. Could Colton Parayko be a key trade chip? Ben talks salary cap issues. We talk CITY SC and more too. Listen here:

The post Ben Fred Friday – April 14, 2023 appeared first on Scoops.

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The Blues are wide awake. Energetically so. The boys are scoring goals like crazy, winning games and smiling again. This is an interesting, surprising twist in what appeared to be a throwaway season.

With their overall 34-34-6 record the playoffs are out of reach. But the Blues are 8-5-1 since the March 2 trade deadline including a 5-1-1 spree in their last seven.

Let’s take a closer look at the 13-game stretch.

Over that time the Blues have averaged 4.19 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths, which ranks third in NHL. Only Edmonton and Dallas have scored at a higher rate.

And during their last 13 games the Blues are No. 1 in the NHL with 4.02 goals per 60 minutes at even strength, and No. 1 with 3.67 goals per 60 at five-on-five.

So what’s up with this?

Three things:

1. Sammy Blais.

2. Jakub Vrana.

3. Kasperi Kapanen.

Brayden Schenn should be added to the list after scoring four goals with nine assists for 13 points in his last 10 games. And the Pavel Buchnevich is always good to goal.

But I want to focus on Blais, Vrana and Kapanen. They’ve sparked a revitalized offense, and their additions are the primary reason for the turnaround. By acquiring all three players, GM Doug Armstrong has given his team a boost and more optimism for next season.

The threesome has scored 35.5 percent of the team’s goals over the past 13 games. And if you include Schenn in there, the four players have combined to score 44.4% of the Blues’ goals over that time.

Blais returned to his original NHL home as part of the Feb. 9 trade that transported Vladimir Tarasenko to the New York Rangers.

In a totally unexpected development since the trade, Blais has scored more goals for the Blues (8) than Tarasenko has scored for the Rangers (6.) Who would have predicted that?

There’s more.

— In his 38 games for the Blues this season, Tarasenko scored 10 goals (all strengths) in 665 minutes of ice time. In his 23 games with the Blues, Blais has eight goals in only 332 minutes. Yep. Blais has only two fewer goals than Tarasenko scored for the Blues this season – despite playing 324 fewer minutes than Tarasenko.

— The story gets even better at five-on-five. Tarasenko scored only six goals for St. Louis during his 519 minutes at five-on-five. Blais? Well, he’s scored eight goals for the Blues in 290 minutes of five-on-five action.

— To do the accounting another way: playing five-on-five, Blais has a rate of 1.66 goals per 60 which ranks first among Blues that have played at least 20 games this season. Before being delivered to New York, Tarasenko averaged only 0.69 goals per 60 minutes for the Blues.

Blais didn’t score a goal in his 54 games for the Rangers over two seasons. In his St. Louis homecoming, he has pierced eight goals in the first 23 games. Welcome home, Sammy.

“I always loved playing here, and in my heart, I never should have left,” Blais told Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest.

Sammy Blais is an intriguing talent who is busy reinventing himself. It’s a combination of factors. Blais has fully recovered from the torn ACL he suffered in his early days as a Ranger. He’s more comfortable and confident as a Blue. He’s playing for a coach, Craig Berube, who believes in him. And his responsibilities have changed and turned into an expanded opportunity.

In his previous stint with the Blues – as a member of the 2019 Stanley Cup winner – Blais was a hit man, a rugged winger who personified the Blues’ physical play that wore down opponents.

This time around, the 26-year old Blais fits any line. He has skated with Schenn and Brandon Saad. He’s skated with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. He’s skated with Kapanen and Buchnevich. He’s skated with Alexei Toropchenko and Logan Brown. Berube can play Blais with anyone and feel confident, and that makes Blais even more valuable. In only 23 games, he’s already sixth among St. Louis forwards in most five-on-five goals this season. That’s instant impact.

Kapanen, 26, wasn’t getting much ice time for the Pittsburgh Penguins this season. They tried to sneak him through waivers to make room for another player, and Armstrong pounced. And Kapanen, feeling liberated, has rediscovered his scoring touch. The speedy Kapanen is reigniting his career, scoring seven goals and adding four assists for 11 points in his first 15 games for St. Louis.

At his peak, Vrana had 49 goals and 50 assists over a two-season run with the Washington Capitals. He scored three goals with five assists (and was a plus 5) when the Caps rolled through the 2018 postseason to win the Stanley Cup. Vrana’s career was derailed by personal problems, but he did what he had to do to get healthy and seems renewed. And he’s still only 27.

Armstrong acquired Vrana from Detroit at the deadline for a seventh-round draft pick and a nominal prospect. Vrana has been outstanding, scoring eight goals in 12 games as a Blue.

Armstrong’s instincts with Blais, Vrana and Kapanen were spot on, and all three players are under contract through next season. Army’s low-risk gambles are paying off; during the current 5-1-1 stretch the three new Blues have combined for 13 goals and 11 assists. Remarkable.

Um, is this for real? Will their impact fade? If the advanced metrics could speak, they’d be hollering “highly unlikely, so don’t be stupid.”

Well, for now we can tell the advanced metrics to shut up.

We’ll find out a lot more when the 2023-2024 campaign gets underway. But it’s good to know the Blues have three pieces to take into next season to fill top-six or top-nine forward spots, and suddenly the roster transition looks better.

This team remains deeply flawed at preventing goals. But until that hot-problem spot is fixed, at least The Note has more of a chance to prevail in high-scoring games.

Thanks for reading…

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

Statistics used in this column were cultivated by using Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving-Hockey.

The post Bernie: Blais, Kapanen and Vrana Have Given The Blues Plenty Of Goals and More Hope For Next Season. appeared first on Scoops.

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Undefeated St. Louis City SC continues to rise in the weekly MLS Power Rankings. Their swift ascension is pretty remarkable for an expansion team, and City continues to be a delightful story.

— After City’s 3-0 shutout of San Jose, SoccerAmerica’s Paul Kennedy moved St. Louis into the league’s No. 1 spot.

“St. Louis City is off to the best start of any expansion team in MLS history. It is also the fifth team to start out with a 4-0-0 record in the post-shootout era. Kennedy used this quote from City coach Bradley Carnell. “Is it a surprise for us? No. The boys were confident from Day 1. The boys were angry from Day 1 that no one believed in them. So yeah, we’ve got the chip on the shoulder, we had the chip on the shoulder. But now we’ve shown that it’s not just about having a chip on the shoulder.”

— J. Sam Jones of MLSsoccer.com lifted City into the No. 3 spot in the 29-team rankings.

“The best expansion start in MLS history,” Jones wrote. “Can you really add anything beyond that at this point? It’s not Atlanta, it’s not Seattle, it’s not Portland, it’s not LAFC. No, it’s St. Louis. They’re talented, they’re playing for each other, they’re in a helluva positive feedback loop and they may never lose again. It’s the kind of situation that’s beyond regular analysis of whether a team is good or bad. They’re the hero of the story right now and that’s all that matters. Also, ya know, they’re pretty damn good. Did I mention they won 3-0 this week despite missing three center backs?”

— ESPN’s Ryan Rosenblatt moved City from 11th to 5th in this week’s updated rankings. “A comprehensive win over San Jose and the complete list of expansion teams to win their first four games in the history of MLS is as follows: St. Louis City,” he wrote.

READING TIME, 7 MINUTES

1. The St. Louis Battlehawks are dominating the XFL in home attendance, and the gap between STL and the league’s other seven franchises is stunning. Take a look:

* During the past two weekends at home, the Battlehawks attracted a total of 74,178 fans to the thunderdome at America’s Center for an average of 37,089 per game. The other six home games in the XFL over the last two weeks attracted 65,150 fans – an average of 10,858 per game.

* In Week 4, the Battlehawks set an XFL record for single-game home attendance at 38,310. The other three home games in Week 4 averaged 12,212.

* In Week 5, the Battlehawks attracted the second-largest home crowd for an XFL game (35,868.) The other three XFL home games over the weekend averaged only 9,504 fans.

Just a reminder, y’all: St. Louis loves pro football. Always has.

2. Hello, Joel Hofer. The Blues didn’t miss goaltender Jordan Binnington – at all – during his two-game suspension. In victories over Washington and Winnipeg, When playing at even-strength situations, Hofer had a .981 save percentage and stopped 10 of 11 high-danger scoring chances. His teammates really responded to the rookie, who was protected by a determined group of defensemen who routinely left Binnington stranded. What, of anything, does this tell us? It’s too soon to make any conclusions, but the early trend with Hofer in goal is damn interesting.

Though Binnington is eligible to return for Tuesday’s home game against Detroit, coach Craig Berube is going with Hofer in the net. When asked about Binnington’s recent play, Berube said “I think it’s up and down a little bit. For me, it’s just been up and down right now. That’s where I put it.”

Looking at next season, Hofer can fulfill the old Ville Husso role and give Berube the chance to be more aggressive by using the No. 2 goaltender extensively when the erratic Binnington plays poorly or freaks out. That wasn’t possible with backup goaltender Thomas Greiss this season; he didn’t establish full trust. But if Hofer plays well, the team’s goaltending job could be a time-share situation in 2023-2024.

3. Our Town’s Jayson Tatum is slumping. The Boston Celtics have a 7-6 record since the NBA All-Star break, and part of the reason is cold shooting by Tatum. Before the All-Star break Tatum hit 46.4 percent of his shots from the floor including 35.7% from 3-point range. But since the All-Star break Tatum has shot 42 percent from the floor and made only 29% of his threes.

Fatigue could be an issue. According to The Athletic, Tatum didn’t score a point in the second half of Saturday’s 118-117 loss at Utah. And over his last four games he’s scored 10 points total on 1-for-12 combined shooting in the fourth quarter. And Tatum has only one assist in 33 fourth-quarter minutes during that time. The Celtics are 2-2 on their current five-game road trip. In the two losses, Tatum did not score at all in the fourth quarter.

4. I’m looking forward to Team USA vs. Team Japan in tonight’s World Baseball Classic final. That’s for many reasons including Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar. But most of all, it will be great to see Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani finally get the opportunity to play in a big game.

5. Japan’s 6-5 walk-off triumph over Mexico in Monday’s semifinal was scintillating entertainment and a pleasure to watch. I just hope the Cardinal reliever Giovanny Gallegos can shake off the disappointment of getting blasted in the bottom of the ninth for a blown save that knocked Mexico out of the tournament. Gallegos faced three batters and did not record an out. The game-winning sequence: Ohtani double, a walk, and the two-run double by Munetaka Murakami.

6. Nootbaar, who bats leadoff for Japan, went 0 for 3 with two walks in the victory over Mexico. Noot hasn’t hit for power in his six WBC games. But he has seven hits, six walks and two steals – and is hitting .318 with a terrific .483 onbase percentage going into tonight.

7. The former Cardinal outfielder (sigh) Randy Arozarena had an incredible WBC for Mexico. In six games he batted .450, had a .607 OBP, and slugged .900 slug – with six doubles, a homer, nine RBI and eight runs scored. And Arozarena was spectacular defensively in left field. Dude thrives in big-game conditions. In the 2020 postseason he launched 10 homers with 14 RBI and 19 runs scored in 20 games for Tampa Bay. He batted .377 with a .442 OBP and .831 slug while leading the Rays to the American League pennant and a spot in the 2020 World Series. The Dodgers won the World Series in six games – and their pitchers’ ability to chill Arozarena down was a big reason why.

8. St. Louis City SC have been linked to Roberto Firmino, the forward or attacking midfielder for Liverpool of the EPL. The Brazil star has said he will leave the Merseyside club when his contract expires this summer. In speaking to The Athletic, St. Louis City sporting director Lutz Pfannenstiel didn’t exactly terminate the speculation. Pfannenstiel and Firmino have an affiliation through their time together at 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Firmino played four seasons there, and Pfannenstiel was the team’s scouting director.

“I think it was a very natural course that we were linked with Roberto Firmino once he actually stated that he will leave Liverpool in the summer,” Pfannenstiel told The Athletic. “There is always that connection at Hoffenheim between me and him, so that was something which was not unexpected, to be honest. However, he, without any doubt, for me, would be the best player in the league because he is an amazing player, and we all know that.

“If that is realistic for us, as St. Louis, to sign Roberto Firmino, that is something we really need to figure out, like, right now.”

Great quote.

9. So far in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, defense has really mattered. Twelve of the 16 teams that survived the first two rounds ranked among the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. And six of the 12 teams are in the top 10 in defensive efficiency: Tennessee (1), UCLA (2), Alabama (3), Houston (4), San Diego State (5) and Texas (10.) Four others can be found close by on the list of teams that play the best defense: Creighton (13), UConn (14), Arkansas (15) and Kansas State (17.)

During the first two rounds, the winning teams gave up an average of 63 points per game. And in the 32 games, only five teams scored more than 70 points.

That impacted the betting markets. If you heavily played the over for the first 32 games — wagering on teams to finish with more combined points than the total listed for the contest — better luck next time. Even though the overs rebounded well on Sunday (6-2), betting the under came through with a 32-16 success rate (66.7%.)

10. I’m on the pitch clock and better fire off some quick-hit observations on the Cardinals:

– Jordan Walker: after homering four times in his first seven Grapefruit League games, the rookie giant had gone 12 straight games (35 at-bats) without a homer. This doesn’t include any at-bats that Jordan may have taken on Tuesday’s tilt against Washington. Whatever it’s worth Walker has drawn one walk in 54 plate appearances this spring. But his spring-training numbers are swell: .340 batting average, .352 OBP and .604 SLG for a .956 OPS. And he’s hitting the ball hard. He’s done enough to make the big club for Opening Day?

— Can we stop talking about Paul DeJong? At least for a minute? The Dude is going on the IL, so let it be for a while. The amount of oxygen and brain cells we’ve wasted on a backup shortstop is preposterous. Find another obsession. Please.

— Oh. And Masyn Winn has a chance to be, say, Francisco Lindor one day. But that day ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. Will you please give this talented young dude a chance to develop in a way that will only make him more prepared to excel when upon arrival in he majors. Patience.

— Jack Flaherty: His last two starts combined, including Tuesday’s assignment vs. Washington: 9.0 innings, 16 hits, five earned runs, 5.00 ERA, one walk and seven strikeouts. He’s been working on a new pitch, a cutter, and that takes time to develop. That said, I liked it better when Flaherty was rolling in his earlier starts this spring.

— Alec Burleson is making something of a late run in camp, so please hit the “pause” button on your 26-man roster projections. After a too-quiet start, Burleson is batting .261 in his last seven games with two doubles and five RBI. Nothing dramatic, but he’s on the right track. It’s conceivable that both Burleson and Juan Yepez make the opening-day roster if the Cardinals are comfortable with the idea of using Brendan Donovan at shortstop when Tommy Edman has the day off. But if they add infielder Taylor Motter to the roster to fill the spot that would have gone to DeJong, it likely comes down to a Yepez-or-Burleson decision.

— With Matthew Liberatore and Dakota Hudson optioned to Triple A Memphis, it looks like Jake Woodford will be doing his pitching for the Cardinals for the start of the regular season. Congrats.

— After a spin in the World Baseball Classic, I hope Tommy Edman and Tyler O’Neill have the to get ready for the start of the regular season. I exclude Lars Nootbaar from that simply because he’s been very busy in the WBC and should roll into spring training without a fuss.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used in this column were sourced from Baseball Reference, Reference, and Natural Stat Trick.

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BERNIE BITS

With the Saint Louis Blues wallowing at No. 24th among the 32 NHL teams in points percentage (.470), I welcome the entertainment provided by goaltender Jordan Binnington in Wednesday’s embarrassing 8-5 loss to Minnesota. The Blues are 6-13-2 since Jan. 21 and have only 13 regulation wins in 34 home games this season.

So if Binnington can fire up the crowd by invading a group of Minnesota players to attack the Wild’s Ryan Hartman … why not. After scoring on Binnington, Hartman skated through the crease, contacting Binnington’s left leg. Hartman tripped, Binnington flipped. At that point a fuming Binnington tried to go all Texas Chainsaw Massacre on Hartman, who was celebrating the goal with a pack of Wild teammates.

Binnington was frying-pan hot with temper … and why not? Especially on a night when Nature Boy Ric Flair is inside the arena.

The Blues have been burned for 3.72 goals per game this season, displaying a looseness that’s unusually bad. For the most part Binnington’s defensemen stand around and watch the goals go in and all but escort opponents to their goaltender’s doorstep. I’m not saying that the defensemen are lax and disengaged, but I think I’ve seen them munching popcorn while loitering near the slot. (Well, not really. It just seems that way.)

The roster has transitioned to a rebuild, and the Blues won’t be making the playoffs for the next two or three seasons. A talented young goaltender, Joel Hofer, will be moving into Enterprise Center. And make no mistake, Hofer is coming for Binnington’s job.

Binnington isn’t to blame for the Blues’ hemorrhaging in their own end — but he hasn’t done enough to stop it. Binngton’s numbers have slipped since his excellence as a staunch guardian during the 2019 Stanley Cup run. And that is true, even when he was surrounded by much better teams than he is now. Among 30 league goaltenders that have played at least 1,500 minutes at even strength this season, Binnington ranks 26th in save percentage (.899). And his save rate at all strengths (.892) is inadequate.

Over the past two seasons Binnington has a Quality Start percentage of ,438. In the three seasons before that, his QS percentage was .570.

The same goes for Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA.) Over the last two seasons his GSAA is a minus 27.In the three seasons prior to that, Binniginton 19 goals above average.

In its “most overpaid goaltender” rankings at HockeyWriters.com, Binnington made the bottom 10 for a second consecutive year.

“This season he didn’t have a goalie like Ville Husso to overtake him as a starter,” Rob Couch wrote, “and the St. Louis Blues were complacent to bring in veteran Thomas Greiss to back Binnington up. Binnington’s numbers continue to decline year after year, but it is partly due to the decline of the team as well.

“This season has not gone the way the Blues had envisioned, and since Binnington is still locked in at $6 million for four more seasons, they are stuck with his production.”

Binnington has the most penalty minutes among NHL goaltenders over the past four seasons. But 31 of his total 37 penalty minutes over that time came during his last two seasons. And that’s all we need to know about his growing frustration.

READING TIME, FIVE MINUTES

1. What a fantastic Saturday for watching STL sports. With the opportunity to advance to the NCAA Sweet 16, Mizzou basketball tips off against Princeton at 5:10 p.m. local time. At 6 p.m. the Battlehawks (3-1) go against Washington (4-0) in a must-win game inside the thunderdome at America’s Center. And at 7:30 p.m. St. Louis City SC will try to defeat San Jose at CityPark to become the first MLS expansion team to open the season with a 4-0 record.

2. Illinois lost to Arkansas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament for the same reason it lost so many times this season: awful shooting from three-point range. Thursday the Illini made 6 of 22 threes overall (27.3%) Illinois ended the season ranked No. 335 in the nation with a 30.8 percent success rate in making 3s. This is the same team that ranked 19th in the nation with a shooting percentage of 55.1% on two-point attempts. Go figure. Not sure why the Illini kept firing so many threes.

3. After winning at Portland last Saturday, St. Louis City SC moved up to No. 6 in the league power rankings listed at MLSsoccer.com.

“It’s not a magic trick. It’s not an illusion,” wrote J. Sam Jones. “Your league leaders (yes, league leaders) are just winning duels, capitalizing on chances and staying locked in for 90 minutes. They’ve caught a few breaks so far, but they’ve continuously put themselves in great positions to benefit from those breaks. In MLS, that’s far easier said than done. We’ll see how this keeps up over the course of a full season, but for now, no one wants any part of this team. All that being said, don’t overthink this. Just sit back and enjoy one of the most impressive starts in league history. We’re watching something special.”

4. After a 2-0 start to the season, St. Louis City was listed at No. 26 among the NLS 29 teams in the ESPN power rankings. But the victory at Portland prompted ESPN’s Ryan Rosenblatt to move City all the way up to No. 11. That’s a huge leap in one week. But it also shows how much respect City has earned by going 3-0 and winning two of three on the road.

“This team just makes sense. They know what they’re meant to do, they have the players to do it and they execute,” Rosenblatt wrote. “It’s hardly flashy, but, especially early in the season when a lot of teams are still figuring things out, it delivers points. Their win over Portland gives them nine of nine points, and even if teams start to catch up a bit, these points give them a big buffer.”

5. Washington Post columnist Jerry Brewer had many wonderful things to say about Mizzou basketball coach Dennis Gates. Brewer wrote his column from Sacramento, where Mizzou defeated Utah in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Here are some excerpts:

— “In a sport grudgingly changing with the times, he is emerging as a leader in a new wave of men’s college basketball coaches who have fresh ideas about how to motivate and teach younger generations of players. More than that, he has an innate feel for building community through basketball.”

— Noting the coach’s immediate success at Cleveland State and Missouri, Brewer wrote, “Gates connects. His sincere approach works. Over the past four seasons, no coach has been a better program builder.”

— “If Gates continues his current pace, he may end up being the face of a new era in college basketball.”

— “As a coach, Gates has channeled all his passion and turned into a multifaceted teacher. He coaches hard without demeaning his players. He utilizes every tool available to gain an edge, from analytics to sports psychology. His team plays aggressive defense, often pressuring full court. On offense, they prefer a read-and-react style, which includes classic Princeton offense concepts that Pete Carril popularized, but in their fast-paced hybrid system, it’s quite subtle. Missouri is full of wrinkles, illustrating all the experiences Gates has had throughout his career.”

And Brewer went to the right source for more perspective on Gates. That would be Gates’ mentor since 2004 – Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton.

“The good thing about Dennis is, the best is yet to come,” Hamilton told Brewer. “He’s just getting started. Not only will he win ballgames. He will take those teenagers and usher them into adulthood. He will never compromise his principles to win. He is the kind of guy that people will be emulating.”

6. Speaking of Pete Carril – the late, legendary icon of Princeton basketball – Missouri will face an inspired opponent in Princeton. And they’ll be facing one of Carril’s favorite players in current Princeton coach Mitch Henderson, a starting point guard on three consecutive Ivy League championship teams that went 73-13 record over three seasons in the late 1990s. Carril had retired by then but still had a major influence on Henderson’s life and career path.

As a coach Carril was revered for his success against heavily favored, brand-name programs. Accordingly, No. 15 seed Princeton stunned No. 2 seed Arizona 59-55 in Thursday’s first round. Princeton stayed calm while erasing a second-half 10-point deficit. “We are imperfect,” Henderson said after that one. “But we’re a very, very, very tough group.”

7. Princeton goes into the Mizzou game ranked 98th at KenPom – four spots behind St. Louis U (94th.) The Ivy League Tigers are No. 108 in the nation in offensive efficiency, and 106th defensively. They rank No. 325 in minutes from the bench, and No. 313 in Division 1 experience. Princeton took advantage of Arizona’s lazy performance and overconfidence, but that’s highly unlikely to be the case against a wired Missou team. KenPom’s model gives Mizzou a 69 percent win probability in Saturday’s matchup – with Mizzou winning 80-74. Princeton has won 20 games this season – with 17 of the 20 coming against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents. Never mind that; Princeton is a tricky opponent.

8. Jim Bowden (The Athletic) put Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn on his Top 10 list of the most impressive young players of 2023 spring training. Jordan Walker was ranked No. 1. And Winn was No. 1. Bowden has written plenty about Jordan, so I’ll share what he said about Winn.

“Masyn Winn has arguably the best shortstop arm in the game, reminiscent of the “gun” that former Cubs shortstop Shawon Dunston once displayed,” Bowden wrote. “In fact, Winn has been clocked at more than 100 mph throwing to first base. This spring evaluators have been raving about his quick feed, ability to change directions on a dime, and above-average range to both sides. They say his bat is coming around and believe that at some point at the end of this year or early next year, he’ll become the everyday shortstop in St. Louis, with Tommy Edman moving back to second base. Winn is also an elite base stealer, having swiped 43 bags last year in 48 attempts. His hit tool will determine his timeline to the big leagues, but there’s no doubt he’s the Cardinals’ long-term answer at shortstop.”

9. Cardinals lefty Steven Matz looks ready to go. He added to his impressive spring training by allowing one earned run and four hits with no walks and three strikeouts in 4.1 innings in Friday’s 16-2 win over the Marlins. Matz has a 1.54 ERA in the Grapefruit League action.

10. Pardon my typos. Have a great weekend. if you love sports, I know you will.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie Bits: Berserk Binnington, A Busy Saturday, St. Louis City SC, Battlehawks, Praise For Dennis Gates, Raves For Masyn Winn. appeared first on Scoops.

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Too many of my columns are overly long, and I don’t want you to work so hard when reading them. I plan to compensate by dropping in some shorties on a regular basis.

Let’s go skimming …

Here are my early-spring impressions of the five-member rotation.

As a bonus, I’ll throw in observations on two other pitchers that intrigue me.

JACK FLAHERTY: His first start was pushed back a couple of times, but it was worth the wait. In three scoreless innings against Houston on Monday, Jack allowed 1 hit (a solo) homer, walked one and struck out five. I don’t care if it was an exhibition game. He reminded us of what he was, and what he still could be. Because of injuries, Flaherty has worked only 52.1 major-league innings since the beginning of June, 2021. (His Fielding Independent ERA over the time was 5.31.) When Flaherty pitches with authority, it’s a reminder of what he was, and what he still can be. It’s a welcome sight. No STL pitcher is more important than Jack Flaherty in 2023. The word that fits best right now: Exhale.

MILES MIKOLAS: He’s off to the WBC, representing the United States of America. This is a big year for Mikolas, who can become a free agent after this season when he’ll be 34 years old. Healthy again after pitching just 44.2 total innings in his previous two seasons, Mikolas returned to form in 2022 by cranking through 202.1 innings. If we exclude one horrid start at the long-running joke of a ballpark known as Coors Field, Mikolas spun a 2.88 ERA in his other 31 starts. Mikolas looked snappy and sharp in his first two exhibition-game starts – allowing no runs, two hits and one walk with six strikeouts in 5 innings. The word that fits best right now: Impressive.

STEVEN MATZ: I’m an optimist about this lefty for 2023. I’m tossing out his hard-luck first season with the Cardinals. Injuries to his left shoulder and knee limited Matz to 15 appearances (10 starts) but he managed to turn in a respectable 3.78 Fielding Independent ERA. The worst part of his 2022 profile was a fluky home-run rate, with 16 percent of his fly balls going for home runs. That’s more of an outlier than anything. What I liked best was seeing Martz fire in for a 26 percent strikeout rate. And he was back Monday in his first appearance in a game this spring, striking out four of the nine Astros he faced over three hitless, scoreless innings. The word that fits best right now: Encouraging.

JORDAN MONTGOMERY: He was blasted in his first exhibition start, giving up five hits (including a homer) and four earned runs in three innings. But it’s hard to stress over a dude that was hitting 95 p.m. in his first outing. This 30-year-old left-handed veteran is coming off a strong 2022 season and he hasn’t spent any time on the non-Covid IL since missing 172 days in 2018 while recovering from elbow surgery. My point: some spring-training starts are far more important than others, and there’s no reason to be concerned by a rough first outing from an established, proven pitcher that has no health or age-related concerns. One factor in Monty’s first start: while adjusting to the new pitch clock, he hurried up his delivery and couldn’t find the right rhythm. The word that fits best right now: Proceed.

ADAM WAINWRIGHT: While participating in the WBC, hopefully he’ll sharpen up, increase his low velocity level, and yield fewer missiles to opposing hitters. The WBC competition might tell us about Wainwright’s quality and viability going forward. The word that fits best right now: Anxiety.

TINK HENCE: The 20-year-old prodigy is being brought along slowly, and the caution makes sense. He’s unlikely to do any pitching in the big leagues this season. But based on what we’ve seen from his raw-talent stuff this spring, Hence is ridiculously nasty. Throws in the high-90s, then buckles the knees of bewildered hitters when he tosses that knife-blade slider. What a natural. I texted a longtime MLB scout who works for an NL time to ask him about Hence. His answer: “If he can stay healthy, there are no limits on what he can accomplish.” The word that fits best right now: Wow.

JAKE WOODFORD: The dude that has the best ERA among St. Louis pitchers (minimum 77 innings) since September 2021 is looking good in Florida. No surprise, but what does it mean? Well, it depends on what the analytics department has to say. Doesn’t seem to matter that all Woodford does is get piles of outs. In his last 33 MLB appearances, Woodford has faced 300 batters and allowed just one home run while holding them to a subterranean .290 onbase percentage. The word that fits best right now: Mystery.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app.

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

Listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on your preferred podcast platform. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. We recorded a new podcast on Monday, March 6. Please have a listen.

All stats used in this column were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac.

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BERNIE BITS

The Missouri Tigers have a three-game winning streak going, and they’re doing it the Stormin’ Norman way. That’s right. I’m referencing Mizzou coaching legend Norm Stewart. His teams were tough. They’d fight you for 40 minutes … or for as long as it took to claw out a win.

Well, in his first season coach Dennis Gates has a team that’s developing a late-round, late-game desperation and determination that wears opponents down. Sure, the Tigers have been floored during several harsh losses. Kansas, at Auburn, Alabama, at Texas A&M, at Mississippi State. But even the best teams get rocked at times in this season of parity.

The three-game winning streak started with a rugged 66-64 overtime win over Mississippi State at Mizzou Arena. It was ugly and nasty and devoid of art. But MU survived a brawl of a game that it led for only 16 minutes and 10 seconds.

Next was the slow start at Georgia last Saturday. Visiting Mizzou trailed by a point at the half, only to run the home team out of Athens for a 22-point victory.

Wednesday, Missouri was left wobbled by LSU and slipped into a 19-point deficit, only to jump the Bengal-tigers in the second half to win by five.

Here’s the combined summary of Mizzou’s second-half blitzes at Georgia and LSU.

* In outrunning the Bulldogs and Tigers, 92-51 in the second halves of those wins, Missouri scored on an amazing 41 of 62 possessions – a rate of 66 percent.

* Mizzou made 56.6 percent of their second-half shots including 48.3 percent from three-point range.

* Turnovers in the second half: Missouri only five; a combined 20 for Georgia and LSU. Second-half points scored on turnovers: Missouri 32, with only five for their two opponents.

* Second-half steals: 13 for Mizzou and only two for GA-LSU.

* The Tigers’ veteran depth was essential in both second-half comebacks. In the final 20 minutes at Georgia, eight Missouri players chipped in for 45 second-half points, but nine had more than 11. In the surge at LSU, seven Mizzou players contributed to the 47-point total, and D’Moi Hodge led with 13.

At Georgia, Missouri went on a 51-18 dash to put the Dawgs away. At LSU, Mizzou sprinted by LSU on a 57-33 run. Georgia and LSU aren’t good at playing basketball, but that really doesn’t matter. Missouri was unsteady in both games, but had the poise and the maturity and the mental toughness to smash back.

And Mizzou can win the close ones, going 6-0 in games determined by a five-point margin. The Tigers are also winning conference road games. After losing their first three on the road in SEC action, Mizzou has won four of the last six away from CoMo.

The Tigers are upset proof, at least so far. This season they haven’t lost against Quad 3 or Quad 4 opponents, winning all 13 games. And they’re 9-8 against Quad 1 or Quad 2 teams. That winning record isn’t easy to do.

Missouri is 22-8 overall, and 10-7 in the SEC.

This is meaningful in two ways.

1. The 22 victories are the most by a Mizzou team since the Tigers won 23 in Frank Haith’s final season, 2013-2014. In the eight seasons that followed – through 2021-2022 – Missouri had a record of 105-145 for a .420 winning percentage. Gates’ current winning percentage at Mizzou is .733.

2. With a win over Ole Miss at home on Saturday, Missouri would finish the SEC regular season with a 11-7 mark. That’s a pretty big deal considering that, until now, MU had only two winning records in SEC play since joining the conference for the 2012-2013 season. And Mizzou hasn’t won 11 games in the SEC since their first season as a conference member. And in the last eight seasons before Gates took over, Missouri was a horrendous 63-115 in SEC games.

Under Gates, Missouri has the No. 8 offense in the nation according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings. And the Tigers are 15th in effective field goal percentage, and rank fifth in the nation (defensively) in steal percentage. It’s highly entertaining basketball. After averaging 67.8 points per game in the previous eight seasons, Mizzou is averaging 80 per game in Gates’ first season.

When we put this into the proper context, this has been an amazing first season for Dennis Gates.

This is Coach of the Year material.

READING TIME, 5 MINUTES:

— No time for Happy Talk. GM Doug Armstrong won’t be able to pull off a quick turnaround unless he can dump salary by trading one or two of the Blues’ grossly overpaid and underperforming defensemen. As Stephen Ground wrote at The Hockey Writers site: “There is no reason to belabor the point: the Blues defense is completely broken, extremely overpaid, and totally nonfunctional. But as much as Armstrong might want to tear it down to the studs, clearly, no team can function without a solid defense. And the Blues have no clear answers on that front.”

— Absolutely correct. After this season the Blues owe Colton Parayko, Torey Krug, Nick Leddy and Justin Faulk a combined $70.5 million in salary through 2025-2026. (That’s an average of $23.5 million per season.) Leddy’s contract expires after the 2025-26 season, but going forward the Blues will owe Parayko, Krug and Faulk a total of $19.5 million in the 2026-2027 season. And they’re on the hook to pay Parayko $6.5 million per season through 2029-2030. These contracts will weigh the Blues down for a long time unless Armstrong can make some of them go away.

— This season the Blues have paid over $30 million (collectively) to eight defensemen, a cost that ate up 35.5 percent of the total payroll per CapFriendly. This season the Blues are ranked a horrendous 29th in the league with their average of 3.65 goals-against per game.

— Our Town’s Jayson Tatum struggled with his shooting in his first three games since the All-Star break. It happens, but it’s rare for one of the most consistent talents in the NBA. Over the three games Tatum knocked down only 36.7 percent of his shots overall, and made only 24% of his 3s. Well, the slump came to an end Wednesday during Boston’s 117-113 victory over visiting Cleveland. Tatum made 13 of 21 shots from the hardwood including 4 of 6 threes. He hit 11 of 14 free throws. He scored 41 points, pulled 11 rebounds and distributed for eight assists. It was a full-on Tatum performance for a 45-18 Celtics team that’s battling Milwaukee (45-17) for the top NBA record and the No. 1 seed in The Eastern Conference.

— This season Tatum has scored 40 or more points eight times, and he’s scored between 30-39 points in 25 games. Through Wednesday only three NBA players have posted this excellent combination of all-around play: an average of 30 points, seven rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. The three are Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luca Doncic … Tatum, who turns 25 on Friday, leads the NBA with 1,789 points this season. And since the start of the 2019-20 season only Doncic and Antetokounmpo have more points than Tatum.

— More praise for St. Louis City SC: MLS.com soccer writer J. Sam Jones placed STL at No. 19 in the league Power Rankings following Week 1. And that’s fair because City is an expansion team and must prove itself over time. But the 3-2 win at Austin was an excellent result that created excitement around the MLS.

“The new kids came to play,” Jones wrote. “Heading into one of the most hostile environments in MLS (against a 2022 Western Conference finalist) and exiting with a win is about as impressive an introduction as St. Louis could have possibly asked for. CITYPARK is going to be an absolute madhouse on Saturday evening for St. Louis’ first-ever home game.

— R.J. Anderson (CBS Sports) has Cardinals’ top prospect Jordan Walker at No. 6 overall in his Top 50 MLB rankings. Here’s what he wrote: “Walker has immense strength, resulting in the kind of raw power that could make him a prototypical middle-of-the-order slugger. In order to fully access that pop, scouts expect that he’ll need to continue to learn how to lift the ball more frequently — last season, more than 45 percent of his batted balls were grounders. (A point in his favor is that most evaluators believe it’s easier to train launch angle than exit velocity.) There was always a chance Walker would outgrow the hot corner, and the Cardinals have already taken to cross-training him in the outfield. Whatever position Walker ends up playing, his bat will be the main draw. It’s conceivable that he could become the latest young Cardinals hitter to take regular at-bats sometime in 2023.”

— Looking good: According to the excellent BartTorvik.com college hoops site, Missouri has a 97.5 percent chance of being in the NCAA Tournament and a 88% percent chance at receiving an at-large invitation.

— Let’s talk about draft choices. Armstrong did very well in getting a first-round draft choice (plus a likely third rounder) from the New York Rangers for Vladimir Tarasenko, the pending unrestricted free-agent winger who had only 10 goals and 29 points at the time of the trade. Vancouver received a first-round pick from the NY Islanders for center Bo Horvat, a younger and more versatile player who is vastly superior to Tarasenko. Horvat had 31 goals and 54 points at the time of the trade. In terms of draft-pick capital, Armstrong got as much for Tarasenko as the Canucks did for Horvat.

— And then there’s Patrick Kane. Chicago sent Kane to the Rangers for a No. 2 and a No. 4 draft pick. Kane has 446 career goals in the regular season, 82 goals and 136 points in 132 postseason games, and was a cornerstone for three Stanley Cup champions in Chicago. Once again, in dealing Tarasenko Armstrong did something that the Blackhawks couldn’t do: secure a first-round draft choice for a talent (Kane) who has a far more distinguished, productive and prominent career.

— Is help on the way for MLB teams that are worried about the imminent collapse of regional sports networks that serve as carriers for local-television rights? Could be. According to Front Office Sports, the newly created Scripps Sports division is “riding in like a white knight to the possible rescue of worried MLB, NBA, and NHL teams. The new unit, headed by veteran TV executive Brian Lawlor, is on the prowl for local and even national sports rights.”

— Lawlor tells Front Office that “our timing was perfect about what we can do to help solve people’s problems … in the last two weeks, some of the leagues are suddenly in contingency mode trying to figure out what happens if Bally stiffs them – and stops production in the next month. So we’ve had quite a few conversations with the leagues and the teams, just helping them identify where we can be a solution for them.”

— The Blues should gauge interest in moving forward Brayden Schenn while he’s still at an age (31) that won’t automatically frighten potential trade partners. Schenn is owed $6.5 million per season through 2027-2028. Playing at five-on-five over the last three seasons Schenn has an expected goal share (in order) of 47.0 percent, 43 percent, and 42.3 percent. And when playing at all strengths this season, Schenn has an expected goal share of 45 percent – the worst of his career since becoming an NHL regular in 2011-2012. The metrics indicate that Schenn is in decline, and he’s unlikely to get better as he ages. Beginning next season the Blues are on the line to pay Schenn a guaranteed $32.5 million over five years; he’ll be age 32, 33, 34, 35 and 36 during the aging sequence.

Thanks for reading …

Pardon my typos …

— Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie Bits: Dennis Gates and Stormin’ Norman, STL City SC, Blue Notes, Tatum Heats Up. appeared first on Scoops.

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BERNIE BITS

— Update: The Blues still stink on ice. In their six games since making the trade that sent Ryan O’Reilly to Toronto, the Blues haven’t won a game but did collect two points via overtime. They’re 0 for 22 on the power play. At five-on-five they’ve had a 41 percent share of shots on goal and have been outscored 18-8. They’ve had 34 percent of the high-danger shots at five-on-five and have been outscored 18-8. Can the Blue Note emblem be replaced by a snoring emoji?

— MLB.com’s Pipeline just updated its prospect rankings for 2023. The Cardinals have five prospects among the Top 100 in the majors: Outfielder Jordan Walker (No. 4), shortstop Masyn Winn (50), pitcher Tink Hence (77), pitcher Gordon Graceffo (79), and outfielder Alec Burleson (91.)

— In order, the Cardinals’ Top 10 prospects are Walker, Winn, Hence, Graceffo, Burleson, pitcher Matthew Liberatore, pitcher Connor Hjerpe, pitcher Michael McGreevy, catcher Ivan Herrera and 17-year-old shortstop Jonathan Mejia. Moving up into the next two places are two 19-year olds: catcher Leonardo Bernal and outfielder Joshua Baez.

— St. Louis City SC earned considerable praise from national soccer media after its wonderful, season-opening 3-2 win at Austin. Paul Kennedy of Soccer America listed City at No. 6 in his first-week MLS Power Rankings.

“St. Louis City’s decision to field a team in last season’s MLS Next Pro paid early dividends,” Kennedy wrote. “Brazilian Joao Klauss, who scored the late game-winner, was one of six St. Louis City2 players who played on Saturday along with starters Kyle Hiebert and Tomas Ostrak and subs Celio Pompeu, Miguel Perez and Josh Yaro.

— More from Kennedy at Soccer World: “Youth Movement: St. Louis City coach Bradley Carnell said one of the easiest decisions of the opener was to play the 17-year-old Perez in midfield. As Carnell said, “It was one of the first names for me when we knew we were going through different moments of battle, struggle, fatigue.” It’s amazing to realize Perez was a student at Pattonville High School not too long ago.

— During their 0-6 skid, the Blues have scored only 22 percent of the five-on-five goals when defenseman Colton Parayko is on patrol. Can GM Doug Armstrong offload him before Friday’s NHL trade deadline? I doubt it. But then again, there’s this from TSN hockey insider Darren Dreger: “Hearing action is starting to pick up around Blues defenceman Colton Parayko. Alberta boy with a ton of term remaining. $6.5 million cap hit through 2029-2030. Stay tuned.”

— This from soccer writer Andy Deossa of YahooSports: “Winning as an expansion team isn’t easy, nevertheless on the road in one of the best and most energetic stadiums in the league. Playing its inaugural match in Austin was not one St. Louis City SC was supposed to take 3 points from. But coach Bradley Carnell and Co. simply do not care about what expectations have been placed on this franchise.”

— Baseball analyst R.J. Anderson (CBS Sports online) chose right-handed reliever Wilking Rodriguez as the Cardinals’ breakout player for 2023. I have a ton of respect for Anderson, so his opinion caught my attention. Here’s what he wrote: “The Cardinals took Rodriguez from the Yankees as part of the Rule 5 Draft. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014, when he was a 24-year-old member of the Royals, but he showed impressive raw stuff during his time in Mexico — as in, an upper-90s fastball, a mid-90s cutter, and a hammer curve. The Cardinals are one of the best organizations in the sport at identifying talent. Rodriguez has a chance to reaffirm that by pitching his way onto the Opening Day roster and later into a high-leverage role.”

— In the last six games, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn have combined for one goal and three assists in a combined 371 minutes and 31 seconds at all strengths. During this stretch, the Blues have been outscored 12-1 (all strengths) with Kyrou on the ice, 9-2 with Schenn on the ice, and 9-3 with Thomas on the ice. Way to step up, fellas.

— With a win at LSU tonight, Missouri can essentially lock in an NCAA Tournament spot. In their last 10 victories, going back to the Dec. 22 win over Illinois, the Tigers have hit 43.8 percent of their three-point shots. Even with a few clunkers in the mix, Mizzou continues to thrive offensively in SEC games. In conference play, only Alabama has a higher three-point shooting percentage and a better effective field goal percentage than Missouri. And defensively MU leads the SEC in steal percentage, and that helps fuel the offense. Dennis Gates may not win the SEC Coach of the Year award, but based on expectations no coach in the conference has turned in a more impressive job than Gates this season.

— Former Blues winger Vladmir Tarasenko is being criticized by his disappointing play for the New York Rangers. In his first nine games for the NYR, Tarasenko has two goals and two assists but only 15 shots on goal. He’s scored one goal in his last eight games.

“Hey, maybe Vladimir Tarasenko is waiting for the acquisition of Patrick Kane to actually report for duty as a Ranger himself,” wrote the famously acerbic New York Post columnist Larry Brooks. “That’s one theory, anyway. He’s yet to make an impact through his first nine games … he has rarely had the puck below the hash marks and the goal line, which is where his big-bodied skills have historically been most effective … this much is clear. Tarasenko must become the difference-maker the Blueshirts envisioned when they acquired him at the cost of a first-rounder plus Sammy Blais. The last thing GM Chris Drury and the Rangers need is for this original splash to turn into a belly flop.”

— Battlehawks quarterback AJ McCarron is a popular man inside XFL media circles. He’s getting a lot of attention for the reason he signed with St. Louis. Wrote Fortune magazine: “McCarron got paid $4 million for his last full season (in the NFL.) Now, his pay will be around $60,000. And that’s exactly what the dad of three wants, having decided to take a 98% salary cut so his kids can see him on the field again.”

It really is a sweet story. (And no, I’m not being sarcastic.) Plus, it’s really enjoyable to watch him play. McCarron has made so many big plays during the Battlehawks’ 2-0 start.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie Bits: Blues Stink, National Praise for St. Louis City SC, Mizzou’s Happy Hooping, Updated Cardinal Prospect Rankings, Tarasenko Getting Ripped in NYC. appeared first on Scoops.

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The End of an Era doesn’t have to be graceful and classy. But you hope that it can be steady. Sometimes it’s just time to move on, with a natural if disappointing transition from good to bad, with familiar-favorite players being eased out or traded to clear room for a newer and younger wave of talent. It happens. It doesn’t have to be hideous.

Well, so much for that here in St. Louis with the Blues.

Many of the 2022-2023 Blues have quit on the job. They’ve quit on each other, the coach, the general manager, the generous franchise ownership owner and their loyal, loving fans. With a few exceptions, this group has no heart, no character and no pride.

They’ve disrespected the true-Blue warriors that invested their lives in this franchise: real men like Barclay Plager and Bob Plager and the legion of players that have bled for the Blues.

In a little less than four years, the Blues have gone from drinking champagne from the Stanley Cup to splitting up, and spitting up and not giving a damn about anything except getting paid. They are rancid. They are a disgrace.

The players turned on coach Craig Berube weeks ago, if not longer than that. And now he’s turned on them. This is also a predictable development at the End of an Era. The hissing usually leads to trades, and the firing of the coach.

“A lot of our best players are not doing the job,” Berube said late Thursday, after the Blues coughed up a 2-0 lead through their blatant indifference, losing 3-2 to Vancouver in overtime.

The Blues have lost four in a row – and have given up three goals for every goal they’ve scored during this wretched withdrawal from competition.

What is happening here?

“I don’t know, you’ll have to ask them,” Berube said. “I guess they don’t care about the team. I don’t know. I’m not sure why.”

Later, after praising winger Alexey Toropchenko for his intense and determined effort, Berube came back around to blasting the freeloaders who are stealing paychecks from Stillman’s accounting and payroll departments. On the ice, there’s no accountability. The Blues’ rink is filled with too many grifters and drifters.

“Our best players don’t play with any passion, no emotion and no inspiration at all,” the coach said. “They don’t play inspired hockey. You cannot play in this league without emotion, grit and being inspired. They’re getting paid lots of money, and they’re not doing the job. End of story.”

The complete end of the story isn’t written yet.

GM Doug Armstrong is working on more trades, and hopefully he’ll send a few more of these slackers on their way.

Brayden Schenn – long overrated by local media – has relinquished any claim that he has on the team captaincy after the Blues traded Ryan O’Reilly. Schenn is supposed to be leading this group right now, but he’s a huge part of the problem. His credibility is shot. This season the Blues have been outscored 63-40 at even strength with Schenn on the ice.

The team’s expected goal share with Schenn out there is an absurdly poor 39.8 percent. But this is another horror-show scenario for Armstrong because the Blues owe Schenn $6.5 million per season through 2027-2028. Schenn already is a money pit, and he’ll turn 32 years old this summer.

Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas were rewarded with huge contracts before the season – and apparently those deals include a clause that makes their effort level optional from game to game. Thomas isn’t nearly as impertinent and entitled as the flaky Kyrou, but “RT” should be stepping up as a leader instead of stepping into the mess to make the pile of bull larger.

I don’t need to talk much about the defensemen. This is an ugly, ugly problem that lacks an easy solution. I’ll just throw two quick stats at you: At even strength the Blues have been outscored 59-39 with Parayko in action, and the deficit is 74-44 at all strengths. When Torey Krug is playing at even strength, opponents have outscored the Blues 54-27. Armstrong made another regrettable mistake by signing Nick Leddy. Justin Faulk isn’t sharp, but I don’t think he’s dogging it. He’s just not playing as well as he should be.

Armstrong must make a decision on Berube’s future.

Here are the reasons to keep the coach:

A) He did one of the all-time great coaching jobs in leading the Blues to Stanley Cup in 2019. And as recently as last season the Blues earned 109 points, which ranked ninth among the 32 NHL teams. You’d think he’d get some of that ol’ benefit of the doubt. And maybe he will.

B) He’s an honorable, hard-working and earnest man who is nothing like the phonies he coaches. He’s a much better person than they are.

C) After this season Berube has two years remaining on a guaranteed contract that will pay him $7 million total through 2024-2025. Through no fault of his own, Stillman has been wasting too much money on big-pay, low-value frauds. And now we expect him to eat $7 million and dump Berube?

But is that enough to justify staying the course?

Is it Berube’s fault that Armstrong squandered millions of dollars on mediocre, declining defensemen? No. But let’s be honest here; scapegoating coaches is a preferred NHL tradition. Even the good NHL coaches are victimized by selfish, bad-guy players who know how to toss their coach over the side, and into a deep swamp. And team management nods as the coach sinks away. Can’t fire all of the players, right? That’s always the cop-out logic.

Then again, Berube’s system has petered out, and the Blues may have to adapt to a new style of play. And we can’t avoid the truth here; Berube obviously has lost the team – except for the decreasing population of admirable veterans plus young players who want to work hard, try to improve, and learn as much as they can as soon as they can.

But once the sorry, no-account, high-salary veterans low bridge the coach and weaken him, is it even remotely possible to keep him? If you’re going to reset the roster, does it make sense to start over behind the bench?

Armstrong and Stillman will make that call. The End of an Era is making just about everyone involved look pathetic. Pavel Buchnevich is one established star who competes with purpose, and I’d like to see him take over the locker room. With 24 games remaining in their regular-season schedule, the best we can do is root for the Blues to lose and secure an earlier pick in the first round of the 2023 NHL draft. And it’s a good idea to get the snakes out of the locker room.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used here were sourced from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey.

The post Bernie On The Blues: The End of an Era Includes Snakes In The Locker Room. appeared first on Scoops.

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Thank you for everything, Ryan O’Reilly.

Good luck, Vladimir Tarasenko.

And a round of enthusiastic applause for Blues manager Doug Armstrong. He’s making trades without blinking, or lapsing into sentimental bunkum that would leave the Blues drifting deeper into mediocrity. With a hardened heart and uncluttered mind, he’s pulling away from the past and powering into the future.

How should we characterize this?

Is Armstrong reloading? Rebuilding? Retooling? Refurbishing? Resetting?

None of the above. I prefer to call this a “renewal.” By acquiring valuable draft picks, Armstrong has started the process of clearing the rot. He’s selling pieces that still have value on the market to collect new materials to resupply and refill the Blues.

This was never a tough call for the GM, no matter how many fantasy scenarios were concocted by the media about O’Reilly re-signing and staying. Please. There was never any doubt; he was already gone. It was just a matter of time and destination.

There was nothing agonizing about this; Armstrong runs a business and is appropriately callous and cold-blooded. For all of the media pearl-clutching over O’Reilly’s future – with an excess of forced melancholy – Armstrong had made his final decision weeks ago.

O’Reilly is an aging center with many, many miles on his body. And while he’ll likely perk up in Toronto, the fact is O’Reilly had 19 points in 40 games and a minus 24 even-strength goal differential for the Blues this season. His leadership had declining influence. It made no sense to ignore O’Reilly’s likely future trend by paying him for his past.

Did we learn anything about how the Blues handled the David Backes situation as the captain entered free agency before the 2016-2017 season? The Blues said thank you and goodbye and were happy for Backes when the Bruins signed him to a five-year, $60 million deal they soon regretted.

O’Reilly will get paid and land a substantial contract, anyway. The looming center free–agent market is terribly thin, and hockey people are comically impulsive. Armstrong had one obligation here: put nostalgia aside and do what’s right for the future of the franchise. His decisiveness was crucial.

“In a league with more than a few teams still determining if they want to buy or sell at the NHL trade deadline, you have to respect Armstrong’s brutal honesty through these trades,” wrote Greg Wyshynski of ESPN.com.

Yes.

Armstrong was smart to make the big moves early in the trade-deadline cycle to avoid deal-killing injuries to Tarasenko and-or O’Reilly. The three-game winning streak during O’Reilly’s final six days as a Blue meant absolutely nothing. Army knew his team all too well after spending months watching careless play and half-hearted effort. It was beyond stupid to think Armstrong would stay the course just because an enigmatic team showed up for work and gave a damn for a week.

Only one thing matters: the long-term future. And Armstrong intervened before the Blues reached the bottom. This will make it easier to raise them up, even if it means missing the next postseason or two. That short-term frustration is much better than having this franchise stuck in the NHL mediocre middle for a much longer period of time. But if Armstrong uses some of the picks to swap for an established and respected (and youngish) NHL veteran, that could speed up the forward progress.

In trading Tarasenko and defenseman Niko Mikkola to the Rangers, and moving captain O’Reilly and center Noel Acciari to the Maple Leafs, Armstrong acquired a load of draft capital. He can keep the assets and draft prospects. He can bundle some of the draft slots to acquire higher-level NHL talent.

By trading pending unrestricted free agents who were in their final weeks as Blues, Armstrong is hardly burning down the house. It’s the opposite. He’s put the Blues into position to do a targeted renovation.

The combined return for Tarasenko and O’Reilly (plus the other two Blues) was a very nice package consisting of two first-round picks in 2023, a second-round choice in 2024, a third-rounder in 2023, a conditional fourth-rounder in 2024 that could become a No. 3. Also coming home as part of the Tarasenko transaction is former Blue Sammy Blais — and, from Toronto, forward prospects Mikhail Abramov and Adam Gaudette.

There is hard work to be done, including a thorough clean-up in front of the Blues’ net where Armstrong installed too many overpaid, underperforming defensemen. That’s all on him, and it’s been the most glaring failure during his time in office.

Armstrong has a chance – not right away – to mitigate this serious problem and it won’t be easy. But he’s made creative deals as the boss of the Blues, now he’s back at the crossroads again.

The first step was to recognize the End of an Era, and act accordingly. As we acknowledge (again) that Armstrong has made mistakes, he has the opportunity to reaffirm that he’s one of the best managers in the NHL.

Since the start of the 2011-12 season, and through the end of the 2021-22 season, the Blues were tied for third in the NHL for most points, ranked fourth for most wins, and had the league’s fourth–best goal differential.

Over the 11 seasons only Penguins (11) qualified for the postseason more times than the Blues (10.) Only five NHL teams competed in more postseason games than the Blues, and only six had more postseason wins than St. Louis.

As Armstrong took over as Blues GM in the summer of 2010, the franchise was still in a free fall – about to miss making the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons and ranking 28th among 30 NHL teams in wins during that span.

The Blues quickly turned things around, and competed in 10 of the next 11 postseasons and won the Stanley Cup in 2019.

In his first two years as the GM, Armstrong had to give the Blues a new look and a new start. He did it then, and now it’s time to do it again. But there is a difference now: Armstrong must restore the trust that he’s lost during this unruly season. With these two trades, he’s off to a good start.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

A new “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals is available, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. We recorded it on Monday, Feb. 20. Access it through your preferred podcast platform, or 590thefan.com, or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

All stats used here were sourced from Hockey Reference.

The post Bernie On The Blues: Doug Armstrong Makes The Decisive First Moves To Build a Better Future. appeared first on Scoops.

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Who won the trade?

My answer: That’s a stupid question.

In the belated fulfillment of a trade request that caused controversy and a considerable amount of caterwauling, the Blues gave Vladimir Tarasenko a ticket to midtown Manhattan for the opportunity to find a new purpose as a member of the New York Rangers.

Vladdy was accompanied by defenseman Miko Mikkola in a transaction that delivered a first-round draft choice for 2023, a conditional draft pick (most likely third round) for 2024, former Blues’ firecracker Sammy Blais and the warm body of a defenseman that has been falsely described as a prospect.

The Blues also agreed to digest $3.75 million of Tarasenko’s remaining salary this season. Tarasenko and Mikkola are playing on expiring contracts and can become unrestricted free agents this summer.

Who won the trade, Blues or Rangers?

* I repeat, it’s a silly question that suggests the Blues had favorable options that would lead to a “win” in this trade. This is nonsense. This trade was designed to clear a box from the attic, and take the collectible to the flea market to see if you can get someone to give you a few bucks for it. You don’t “win” a trade made under these circumstances. You just do your best to salvage what you can.

* The Blues have 31 games left in the regular season, won’t make the postseason tournament, and Tarasenko was out of here as soon as the team completed their schedule on April 13. As you know, there was zero possibility of a new contract for Tarasenko in St. Louis.

* Blues GM Doug Armstrong had no leverage. He had no muscle. He had no power. He had to answer to Tarasenko and his agent. Every factor was working against the Blues here. Tarasenko had a no-trade clause that gave him full veto power which eliminated all but a few teams – if that – which had interest in acquiring Tarasenko. The Rangers came out to trade play and trade hockey cards, and Tarasenko was amenable.

* Had Armstrong held onto Tarasenko’s ghost until the final remaining hours before the March 3 trade deadline with an ambition to seek a more generous return, three really bad things could have happened to ruin everything: (1) another Tarasenko injury; (2) the Rangers trading for Patrick Kane, Timo Meier or another splashy forward; and (3) No trade at all, with the Blues receiving nothing before Tarasenko floated off to sign with his next employer.

* Why am I referring to Tarasenko as a ghost? He was having a terrible season. His diminished goal total had reduced him to the level of a theoretical goal-scoring threat. Tarasenko had 10 goals for the Blues before the trade; 166 NHL players had more than that this season. Tarasenko had only seven even-strength goals; that put him tied for No. 198 on the NHL leaderboard.

* For perspective, consider this: Blues defenseman Calle Rosen has only two fewer even-strength goals than Tarasenko right now. And over the last four seasons Ivan Barbashev has as many goals (51) as Tarasenko.

* When Tarasenko was on the pond at even strength this season the Blues were outscored 45-29 for a goal share of only 39.19 percent. And Tarasenko’s embarrassingly weak expected goal share of 38.0 percent ranks 259th among 266 NHL players that have played a minimum 500 minutes this season.

* Tarasenko, 31, had an outstanding throwback season in 2021-2022, revisiting his past for 34 goals and 48 assists for 82 points. But he didn’t follow up with another show of firepower in his 38 games for the Blues this season. He didn’t follow up with much effort, either.

* Over a five-season period that began in 2014-2015 and ended in the Blues’ Stanley Cup run in 2019, only Alexander Ovechkin scored more even-strength goals (140) than Tarasenko. And during the same stretch of seasons Tarasenko ranked third in the NHL in total goals (182), behind Ovechkin (236) and John Tavares (183.)

* Limited by multiple shoulder surgeries and his own mood-swing fluctuations, Tarasenko has just 51 goals over the last four seasons. That ranks No. 159 in the league over that time. So when a player goes from ranking third in the league in goals over a five-season period to ranking No. 159 in goals during a four-season stretch — and with toxicity mixed in — well, never mind.

* The Blues didn’t deal the vintage, peak-form Tarasenko. They traded his phantom. And if Tarasenko thrives in New York, that’s more about him than the Blues’ decision to move on. If Tarasenko goes off for a goal barrage, it will only reaffirm his ambivalent attitude during his final weeks as a Blue.

* The Rangers believe Tarasenko will be stimulated and rejuvenated by the move to New York. He can use this opportunity to market himself for his next contract. Tarasenko will experience added joy in becoming teammates with Artemi Panarin, his BFF. Tarasenko has plenty of reasons to be inspired, and the Rangers were smart to take a no-sweat gamble on a Tarasenko resurgence. Good for the Rangers. And I would like to thank them once again for trading Pavel Buchnevich here in the summer of 2021.

This wasn’t a “winning” trade for the Blues, or a “losing” trade for the Blues.

It was a necessary, mandatory, obvious, get-something-done move for the Blues.

The two draft picks, especially the first-rounder, gave the Blues two assets that can be utilized in the franchise reboot. And unless Armstrong breaks from character and gets all sentimental and syrupy over Ryan O’Reilly, he’ll do the right thing by collecting more capital by trading the aging captain.

The era is winding down, and it’s imperative to get on with the challenging task at hand. Shipping Tarasenko off was easy after he mailed it in with half-hearted competitive character in too many games.

I don’t rip Armstrong for this trade. I would have ripped the GM only if he failed to get rid of Tarasenko. And I would rip the GM is he doesn’t make additional trades to speed up the future-based flow of talent.

Tarasenko leaves as the fifth-highest goal scorer in Blues franchise history. He has the fifth-most points in Blues history. Among all Blues, Tarasenko ranks second to Brett Hull in career postseason goals (41). For a long time he mattered.

Most of all, Tarasenko was a major force in the seizing of the Stanley Cup in ’19. During that magical and wonderful postseason he pumped in 11 goals with six assists. In a 17-game stretch that began in the second-round series against Dallas and concluded with a Game 4 win over Boston in the Stanley Cup Final, Tarasenko had nine goals and five assists, and the Blues won six of eight games when he scored.

I’ll always remember Tarasenko’s slick pass to set up Brayden Schenn for the second-period goal that gave the Blues a 3-0 lead in Game 7 at Boston. At that
Indelible moment, the Blues and their fans knew that the Cup would soon be on the way to St. Louis.

Years from now, no one will care about why Tarasenko wanted to leave or the hard feelings that may linger for a while. His name is engraved on the only Stanley Cup won by this franchise. That’s forever and transcends everything else.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie: The Blues Traded The Ghost Of Vladimir Tarasenko. That’s A Start, But Don’t Stop Now. appeared first on Scoops.

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The Blues are on break until returning to game action on Feb. 11. They’re having a good rest, which kind of describes the intensity of their effort in recent weeks.

The Note is 23-25-3 for a points percentage (.480) that ranks 25th among the 32 NHL teams. They swerved into the annual NHL All-Star fair with five consecutive losses, a 2-7 record in their last nine, and a 13-17-3 mark since Nov. 23.

The team’s dopamine level is running low.

So is the probability of the Blues making the playoffs – currently listed at 2.4 percent at Money Puck, and 6% at FiveThirtyEight.

Coming soon: The End Of An Era.

It was wonderful while it lasted.

The only suspense worth mentioning concerns the NHL trade deadline, set for March 3. It’s a matter of time before GM Doug Armstrong trades pending unrestricted free agents Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, so let the countdown begin … and please speed it up if you can, Army.

The Blues have to get going on a fresh start.

I’ve had some extra time to reset my mind on the Blues, and here are some of the thoughts that came out of the process:

1. Every decision that Armstrong makes should be geared to the future. He knows this. But it would be irresponsible to stay the course with O’Reilly and Tarasenko instead of swapping them for draft picks and an influx of young talent. O’Reilly is having a dreadful season; the metrics at Evolving Hockey rate him below the replacement level in value and performance. Tarasenko has 10 goals on the season. He’s checked out. It’s an embarrassment to have him representing the Blues in the All-Star funhouse.

Strip the sentimentality from this equation and move on. Because of the disastrous long-term investments in defensemen who don’t defend, this team already has enough payroll headaches without burning more resources on two down-side players.

2. The Blues have poor leadership. That should be obvious to everyone right now. This default is a huge factor in the team’s lack of focus, attention to detail, the willingness to correct their most damaging mistakes and bad habits, and the overall lethargy that has knackered their motivation. The messages are sent – but not received. Captain O’Reilly can’t get through to the boys. Coach Craig Berube’s instructions and demands have been tuned out. Other players that have the status to lead aren’t effective. There’s no accountability, very little pride, and an unhappy locker room festers on. Between now and the start of next season, Armstrong must put on a hazmat suit, remove hazardous elements, and do the best he can to purify the locker room.

3. The Blues were loaded with leadership when they won the Stanley Cup in 2019. Sure, that team started slowly, but the coaching change that made Berube the boss recharged the commitment and revised the style of play. The Blues became a sturdy and relentless 5-on-5 tank of a team, and a no-name goaltender (JB) took care of the rest.

Now, let’s pause to think about all of the players that had leadership qualities for the Blues in 2019. Players that are no longer here: Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Steen, Tyler Bozak, Pat Maroon, David Perron, Jaden Schwartz, and Carl Gunnarsson. Ryan O’Reilly was a new and massively important link in the leadership chain. O’Reilly is still a Blue, but the paradigm has shifted, and he won’t be around for much longer.

4. So who are the leaders now? Many of you will offer Brayden Schenn as an answer, but I respectfully disagree. He hasn’t been part of the solution. He’s tried, but hasn’t had much impact. This team collectively has drifted away. Schenn is barely above the replacement level this season with 0.3 WAR. And his on-ice goal differential – minus 12 – is third-worst to Noel Acciari (minus 18) and O’Reilly (minus 35) among Blues forwards. None of the Blues defensemen have leadership juice – the personalities that can get teammates going, even if it means calling them out behind closed doors. Three potential next-phase leaders are Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Ivan Barbashev. But Barbashev can leave as a free agent after the season. He’s worth keeping.

5. Since we’re talking about leadership: has Berube lost his effectiveness as coach? Why don’t the players respond to his messaging, and his urgings? Why do the Blues come out with such little energy in so many games? Armstrong needs to get some answers after the season. Or we can ignore it and pretend that the coach and the players are connected and communicating in a way that leads to improvement. I believe that personnel is the overwhelming problem here, but it’s an awful look when the players pay no mind to the coach.

6. The Blues are spending $31 million on salaries for their defensemen this season. Here’s the on-ice goal differential for each defenseman:

Colton Parayko, minus 28
Nick Leddy, minus 21
Niko Mikkola, minus 13
Torey Krug, minus 9
Robert Bortuzzo, minus 8
Justin Faulk, minus 7
Calle Rosen, +13

When you’ve spent $31 million on bigger-name veterans only to have Calle Rosen step up to become your most effective defensemen … well, that’s your basic Epic Fail.

Parayko’s minus 5.7 Goals Above Replacement is among the worst by an NHL defenseman this season. Here’s where the highest-paid Blues defensemen rank among all NHL defensemen in contract value based on performance in 2022-2023:

Krug, No. 125
Faulk, No. 126
Leddy, No. 145
Bortuzzo, No. 149
Parayko, No. 153.

Horrendous.

7. To restate the indisputable, the Blues have collapsed in the area of goal prevention, goal suppression, etc. Sure, the St. Louis offense could be scoring more goals, but a regression was inevitable after last season’s unusually high shooting-percentage aberration. The Blues are being peppered for an average of 3.57 goals per 60 minutes which ranks 26th among 32 teams. Last season the Blues allowed 2.89 goals per 60, which ranked 11th in the NHL.

8. In the raw goals-against per game average, the Blues’ current rate of 3.61 GA/G would be the 10th worst in the team’s 55 seasons of existence. Until this season the nine highest goals-against averages yielded by the Blues occurred in the 1970s and 1980s.

9. Mistakes, mistakes … and a lack of competitiveness. This season, when the Blues are charged with a giveaway of the puck, 59.12% of those giveaways have happened in the defensive zone. Brutal. That ranks 28th in the NHL. And when we count all of the takeaways in the Blues’ game this season, their opponents have come up with a 55.4 percent share of the takeaways. Terrible.

10. Goaltending, factually speaking: This season the Blues rank 28th in save percentage (.904) at 5-on-5, 31st in save percentage (.893) at even strength, and 28th in save percentage (.887) in all situations. They have the poorest save percentage (.775) of any team on high-danger shots at all strengths.

10a. In order, here is goaltender Jordan Binnington’s Quality Start percentage in each of his five seasons with the Blues:

2018-19: .667
2019-20: .560
2020-21: .512
2021-22: .432
2022-23: .436

After this season Binnington has four more seasons remaining on his six-year, $36 million deal. Over the final four seasons Binnington’s contract has a $6 million cap hit in each season.

Thanks for reading …

Hope you have a swell weekend …

— Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used here were sourced fromHockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Money Puck and Puck IQ

The post Bernie On The Blues: Coming Soon, The End Of An Era. appeared first on Scoops.

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The Blues should scram and run away from home. Enterprise Center has turned into a scary place for them this season, and the latest homestand became the site of the latest debacle.

After defeating Calgary in overtime in the first of seven consecutive games in their home arena, the Blues were tied for a wild–card spot in the Western Conference standings and had a 49 percent chance to make the playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight. From that point the Blues proceeded to fall down again by losing four of the next six.

The non-competitiveness was a problem again Tuesday, when the Blues allowed the first four goals of the game and lost 5-3 to Buffalo. Pretty much the same thing happened in Saturday’s 5-3 upending by Chicago. If you combine the scoring pattern in the two dreadful losses, the Blues were blistered for seven goals before scoring their first goal. Disgraceful.

And as the Blues prepare to evacuate the premises for a three-game roadie, this is how they left things in their house:

— A crummy 3-4 record in their barn and a seven-game chance and failure to make things right.

— A revised playoff probability of 18 percent according to FiveThirtyEight.

— They have 49 points on the season and are six points out of the second wild-card spot. It seems like they’re 60 points behind. But to get to the second spot that’s held by Calgary (55 points), the Blues would have to overtake Minnesota (54) and Nashville (52.)

Tuesday’s post-game theme of the day was “Slot Shots” as in leaving the sweet-spot shooting zone unattended to make it easier for opponents to pepper-spray the STL goaltenders with shots. Jordan Binnington must know how it feels to be a turkey in the first couple of weeks each November.

If it isn’t all about the Slot Shots, it’s Defensive Zone Turnovers, or Missing the Net, or Lack of Compete, or Not Playing For Each Other.

Let’s just go ahead and call it a mess.

Jan 24, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Blues center Ivan Barbashev (49) is congratulated by right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after scoring against the Buffalo Sabres during the second period at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Blues (23-22-3) are 23rd in the NHL in points percentage (.510). They’re 10-12-2 at Enterprise Center for a home points percentage (.458) that ranks 27th among the 32 teams. The true indicator is the Blues record in regulation time: 16-22-10.

But yeah, the slot shots are a massive problem. Blues’ opponents have controlled 55 percent of the high-danger scoring chances this season and have used that heavy advantage to outscore St. Louis 97-63 on close-range goals.

That’s a minus 34 in the high-danger goal differential.

In 2018-2019 when they won the Stanley Cup, the Blues were a plus 12 in the high-danger goal count. In the next season, they were plus 19. In 2020-21, they were minus 7. Last season they were minus 4. And now, minus 34.

The Blues’ system – the Craig Berube system – has collapsed. The team is yielding an average of 3.52 goals per 60 minutes this season, which ranks 25th in the NHL. That’s a hard comedown from where they used to be.

The other side has it too easy in getting themselves set up for the high-percentage goals … and easiest goals. Only six NHL teams have committed more defensive zone turnovers than the Blues this season, and STL has a takeaway-giveaway differential of minus 73.

Coach Berube can’t get through to the players and he might as well save his voice and have a robot come out to chat with the media and repeat the same faulty diagnosis of the team’s lousy play. Too many of GM Doug Armstrong’s contract decisions have turned into costly mistakes.

The roster is overpaid and inadequate, the goaltending is mediocre, and the highest-salaried dudes are (mostly) disappointing. The collection of defensemen is undersized and lacking in toughness and instincts. As a group, the Blues’ D-men are among the top five in the league for highest salary compensation. Poor play, poor value, investments gone bad.

The only real thing to look forward to is the NHL trade deadline in early March. Armstrong has to auction off as many of these loose parts as he can, with the hope of improving his team’s 2023 draft position and collecting draft choices that will be ready to lead the next-gen Blues after the inevitable rebuild. Yeah, I’m in a blue mood today. I wonder why. The Blues are just that.

Thanks for reading …

— Bernie

The post Bernie on the Blues: Enterprise Center has Turned Cold and a Rebuild is On The Way appeared first on Scoops.

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BERNIE BITS

The Cardinals continue to receive plaudits for their farm system and player development.

Here’s the rundown:

— Zachary D. Rymer of the Bleacher Report rated the Cardinals at No. 3 in his offseason farm-system rankings. “Breakout seasons from Tink Hence, Masyn Winn and Gordon Graceffo helped the Cardinals emerge as one of baseball’s elite farm systems, even after top prospect Nolan Gorman moved on to the majors,” he wrote.

— In the updated top-100 prospect rankings at Baseball America, three Cardinals made the top 48: outfielder Jordan Walker at No. 4, pitcher Hence at No. 47, Winn at No. 48. Pitcher Matthew Liberatore was 79th, giving the Cardinals four of the top 80 prospects.

— Baseball Prospectus is out with an updated top-101 prospects for 2023, and the Cardinals have four of the top 58: Jordan Walker was No. 2 overall, Winn 30th, Hence 43rd and pitcher Gordon Graceffo debuting at No. 58.

— Baseball America on Jordan Walker: “The physically imposing Walker continues to hit for power and average at every level and is one of the most complete hitters in the minors. He’ll eventually take his place in the middle of the Cardinals order and has a chance to be one of the game’s premier offensive threats.”

— Over at MLB.com, Jonathan Mayo sought opinions from team executives on “best farm system” and the Cardinals came in third behind the Orioles and Dodgers.

— When MLB.com asked the executives about the team that uses the draft the best, the Cardinals were No. 3 behind the Dodgers and Orioles.

— Most underrated farm system? The Cardinals were named No. 1 when the executives made their choices for MLB.com. Here’s Mayo’s response: “The Cardinals do have a knack for churning out very productive big leaguers even if they don’t always finish that high in farm system rankings (No. 13 in our rankings last August, up from 16).”

— Which team hoards prospects the most? MLB.com wanted to know, and the baseball execs placed the Cardinals third behind the Guardians and Rays.

— Best at developing hitters? The execs had the Cardinals tied for third (with several teams) on the MLB.com list. The Cardinals were in the “also received votes” category for being the best at developing pitchers.

— The Cardinals were third at doing the best job of developing “sleeper” prospects according to execs polled by MLB.com. The Dodgers and Astros were ranked ahead of St. Louis.

— As for the best hitting prospect, Jordan Walker finished fifth in the voting among baseball executives that shared their opinions with MLB.com.

– Jordan Walker was No. 1 in the “most usable power category,” receiving 43% of the vote. No other prospect received more than 11%.

— In other categories in the MLB polling, Graceffo was mentioned in three areas: best fastball, best secondary pitch and best pitchability. And the shortstop Winn was fourth in the voting for best prospect defensively.

More From Baseball Prospectus

BP published a list of each team’s top talents age 25 and under as of April 1, 2023. In order of rankings, here are the best young Cardinals according to Baseball Prospectus:

* Jordan Walker, 3B/OF
Dylan Carlson, OF
Nolan Gorman, 2B/3B
Masyn Winn, SS
Lars Nootbaar, OF
Tink Hence, RHP
Gordon Graceffo, RHP
Juan Yepez, OF/1B/3B
Cooper Hjerpe, RHP
*** Andre Pallante, RHP

READING TIME 3 MINUTES:

Last week The Athletic put the Blues at No. 20 in the weekly power rankings. Which seems about right. But in addressing the question of “worst thing to happen this season” two analysts offered a scathing review by answering with “Jordan Kyrou’s horrific defense.” Wow.

Here’s the explanation from Sean Gentile and Dom Luszczyszyn: “Kyrou’s defensive game has always been questionable — it’s why he didn’t earn a lot of ice time despite being a point-per-game scorer. This season we’re finding out exactly why. Kyrou has seen a sizable increase in usage and has seen his defensive numbers plummet in lockstep. With Kyrou on the ice, the Blues give up 3.14 expected goals against per 60, up from 2.79 last season. Last year he was at least outsourcing his problems. This year? Not so much with a near team-worst 42 percent goal rate.”

End of Homestand: Buffalo is in town with budding superstar Tage Thompson, who is trying to make everyone up there forget about the early termination of the Bills’ NFL season. The Sabres have won three in a row. The Blues are completing a seven-game home stay, and go into Tuesday’s game with a 3-3 record through the first six games. … Scorer Vladimir Tarasenko and defenseman Torey Krug are expected to return from injuries and take their spots in the lineup for this one … Thompson – the former Blues’ prospect sent to Buffalo in the trade for Ryan O’Reilly – has 32 goals and 31 assists in 43 games. If only Josh Allen could have produced like that the Bills’ division-round playoff loss to Cincinnati …

Even if the Blues win to finish with a 4-3 record in their last seven at Enterprise Center, they’ve already missed an opportunity to make up ground in the Western Conference wild-card race. On January 9, the Blues had a 49 percent playoff probability per FiveThirtyEight. The seven-game homestand began Jan. 10. And as the Blues go into tonight’s game, their playoff probability is down to 26% …

My hope for the Blues? Tarasenko scores a bunch of goals to increase his market value before the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline …

I keep hearing about goaltender Thomas Greiss giving up too many rebounds in comparison to Jordan Binnington, but the data shows that Greiss gives up roughly one rebound per game more than Binnington per 60 minutes (all strengths) … among 30 NHL goaltenders that have played at least 1,200 minutes this season at all strengths, Binnington ranks 27th in save percentage (.891) and 28th in high-danger save percentage. The idea that Binnington is the team MVP is preposterous. (Sorry, Jeremy Rutherford.)

In advance of Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games, here’s an investment note from Steve Makinen at VSiN: “There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the Conference Championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 straight up and 5-4-1 against the spread.” That’s relevant because Cincinnati is now a 2-point favorite to win at Kansas City … as of this morning VSiN notes that the Bengals were receiving 78% of the bets and 87% of money at the Vegas sportsbooks, flipping from a short underdog to a road favorite … and favorites (home or road) have won roughly 70 percent of the time, straight up, in Conference Championship games over the past 20 years.

After Saturday’s thumping by Alabama, Mizzou basketball needs a win tonight at Ole Miss. Missouri has dropped to No. 64 overall in the KenPom national rankings … the KenPom projection gives Mizzou a 48 percent chance of winning this game, but the projected final score is Ole Miss 75, Missouri 74.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie Bits: Cardinals Farm System and Prospects Continue To Receive National Praise. appeared first on Scoops.

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The Blues will try to protect the castle again on Monday night when Ottawa visits Enterprise Center to test The Note’s vulnerability on home ice.

This topic is now A Thing to be discussed. And why not? The Blues have dropped two in a row at the home rink and are 8-10-2 at Enterprise that season for a .450 points percentage that’s tied for 26th in the NHL.

I’d like to point out something: this is no aberration. The Blues have been outplayed on a regular basis at home and have the home-ice record that they deserve. When the Blues lose a game inside their home, we should not be surprised. It makes sense, and is usually a fair outcome.

In 20 home games this season the Blues:

* Have 47.5 percent of total shot attempts, which ranks 28th among home teams this season. And have 48.8 percent of the shots on goal, which ranks 27th.

* They’ve scored 44.2 percent of the overall goals at home, which ranks 27th.

* The Blues are also 27th in scoring-chance percentage, 30th in high-danger shots percentage, and last in the NHL in high-danger goal share.

When the home-standing Blues have such glaring deficits in shot attempts, shots on net, overall goals, scoring chances and high-danger goals, I’m not sure why we’d be taken aback by their dingy record at home.

At Enterprise Center the Blues have been outscored 46-36 at five-on-five and 72-57 at all strength. Those goal-differential minuses explain everything including their lack of effort and mental shortcomings that lead to mistakes and opponent goals.

They’ve also been embarrassed in the high-danger territories – slot and crease – with visiting teams outscoring the Blues by a ridiculous 42-17 on those HD chances at all strengths.

Even with the Blues chipping away for a respectable 9-5-3 record since Dec. 11, the mark doesn’t reflect the quality of their play. Though the Blues have a 55-53 edge in overall goals during this time, their alarmingly poor expected-goals share (43.4%) is a more accurate measure of who they really are.

When the Blues win, it’s usually because they come alive with a dramatic increase in goal scoring that is more of an outlier than reality.

The Blues are 14-20 this season in games decided during regulation. In their 14 wins, they’ve averaged 4.28 goals (all situations.) That’s flukish and unsustainable. In their 20 regulation losses, the Blues have been suppressed to a dull average of 2.0 goals in all situations.

The pattern is similar in home games. The Blues are a dreadful 5-10 in regulation. They’ve averaged 2.00 goals in the 10 regulation home losses, and 4.4 goals in the five victories.

The Blues have collected only 18 of a maximum 40 points at home this season. Only four NHL teams have fewer points on home ice so far. After a 3-1 road trip and a home win over Calgary to open a seven-game home stay, the Blues have lost two in a row at Enterprise.

“Our home play has not been good enough this year. That’s what I see right now. I see, like I talked about, not playing a gritty enough game. We’ve got to do a better job of it.

“You’re not going to get any easy games right now for sure,” coach Craig Berube told the media after Saturday’s 4-2 loss to Tampa Bay. Teams are going to check and they’re going to check hard. And again, there’s not a lot of room out there. We’ve got to fight through it and we’ve got to fight through it more. They’ve got to find more emotion and they’ve got to find more energy and they’ve got to play with more grit right now.”

There’s no excuse for this particular weakness at home. The Blues are an enigma. They aren’t a killer on the road this season, but they are 13-10-1 (.563) away from home for the league’s 14th-best road points percentage.

The Blues — 21-20-3 overall — have four more home games to go on this stretch of schedule, and the return of winger Vladimir Tarasenko is imminent. So once again we can do the usual dance and talk about the Blues’ opportunity to reverse their flow of their season. Here we go again.

But if the Blues can’t do much else than talk about it – then there won’t be much to talk about going forward.

To this point the Blues are what they are – even if we keep trying to convince ourselves that they’re better than they are.

Thanks for reading …

— Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie: The Blues’ Losing Record At Home Isn’t a Fluke. It’s the Reality Of Who They Are. appeared first on Scoops.

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Is it time to load up the Blues-colored bandwagon? This season it’s been pretty quiet on there, with a shortage of passengers, no party balloons, and many complaints.

Not exactly the Delmar Loop trolley, but I digress …

As I keep saying, don’t waste your time trying to understand the Blues. It’s a team that wins despite being outplayed for extensive stretches of games. It’s a team afflicted by injuries, so many that we could be polite and give them an excuse for losing. But they don’t want our sympathy. The more players the Blues lose, the more games the Blues win.

The Bandwagon Update

* Down 3-1 to Calgary going into the third period Tuesday night at Enterprise Center, rally to tie it up, and then win 4-3 in overtime on a goal from Robert Thomas who partnered with Jordan Kyrou on a 2-on-1 invasion of the Calgary goal. The Blues are 4-1 in their last five games of chance.

* Their latest victory gave the Blues a record of 9-3-3 in their last 15 conflicts. Warning: a check of the standings can lead to dizziness. Since Dec. 11 the Blues lead the Western Conference and are tied for third overall with 21 points. And St. Louis has the NHL’s seventh-best points percentage over that time.

* In the West, only the Los Angeles Kings have a better points percentage (.714) than the Blues (.700) since Dec. 11.

* Per FiveThirtyEight, STL’s probability of making the playoffs is up to 49 percent. That isn’t something that takes your breath away, but your favorite team has made significant progress after being down and counted out by the skeptics … including this skeptic.

* With 45 points, the Blues are now tied with Edmonton for the No. 2 wild-card position in the West. And if the Blues can out-wrestle Calgary on Thursday, they’ll draw even with the Flames for the No. 1 wild-card slot.

* The Blues have a positive setup in the schedule, and it’s time to eat up points. They have six games left on the current home stay, and 13 of the next 18 will take place at Enterprise. The fellas can’t afford to crash the Blues-colored Bandwagon. This is their opportunity to take full advantage of the favorable itinerary. If they sag in their effort, resume their bad habits on a mistake-cluttered rink, and reverse to an earlier time this season, the Blues-colored Bandwagon will be towed to the junkyard.

Let’s Get Goofy … I’ll start.

Until recently, the disappointing and undependable Blues were “Stop Draggin’ My Heart Around” by Stevie Nicks and Tom Petty.

And now? Let’s go old-school and say the newly dashing Blues are Sinatra’s “The Way You Look Tonight.” Or as Ol’ Blue Eyes put it: “Lovely, never, never change. Keep that breathless charm. Won’t you please arrange it? ‘Cause I love you, just the way you look tonight”

One Question: Why?

As I wrote earlier this week, the top reason for the Blues’ renewal is mostly about their rush of goals. Sure, the organizational depth has supplied grit and tangible contributions. The Blues wouldn’t be 4-1 in their last five games without the emergency volunteers from their AHL affiliate in Springfield.

Shooting and scoring is the difference. The Blues have found the right touch. It may not last, but they’re scoring in a way that brings back memories of last season’s team that finished third in the league in goals per game.

In their first 29 games of the season – with a record of 13-15-1 – the Blues averaged 2.88 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths. That ranked 23rd in the NHL.

But since Dec. 15 – with a record of 8-3-2 – the Blues are scoring at a rate of 3.68 goals per 60 minutes (all strengths) which ranks No. 6 in the NHL.

The boom in scoring has compensated for the injuries, the roster instability, careless defensive lapses, and the occasional screw-ups in goal.

The No. 1 Star …

That would be Jordan Kyrou. I don’t want to slight other Blues, because they’ve been lifted by a cadre of players during the team’s upturn – especially Pavel Buchnevich, Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn and Robert Thomas. But Kyrou is really rolling.

Kyrou had a goal and two assists in Tuesday’s cooling of the Flames. That gave him three goals and three assists during the Blues’ 4-1 run.

If we go back to Dec. 15, we’ll see evidence of how Kyrou is leading the charge.

– Kyrou has seven goals at five-on-five since Dec. 15, which is tied for second among NHL forwards. Boston’s David Pastrnak has eight goals (five-on-five) over that time.

– At all strengths Kyrou has 10 goals and eight assists in his team’s 13 contests since Dec. 15. That ranks third among NHL forwards during that time.

– Since Dec. 15 Kyrou leads all NHL forwards with an average of 5.24 points per 60 minutes at all strengths. And he’s second (to Pastrnak) with 2.91 goals per 60.

The Molten-Lava Hot Line

Since Dec. 15 the line of Buchnevich, Thomas and Kyrou has been used for 103 minutes in all situations.

With that line on the ice, the Blues have outscored opponents 11-3 for a 78.57 percent goal share, have an expected goal share of 62.3% and have a massive 70-30 advantage in scoring chances.

Exploring the Depths

In their last 15 games the Blues have gotten goals from 16 different players … and 23 players have chipped in at least one point. The production has been generated by the high-end players down to the AHL fill-ins. The win over the Flames was typical. Four different players scored for the Blues, ranging from Kyrou to rookie Nikita Alexandrov.

“I think our key’s been for many years now, at least since I’ve been here, is our depth,” Robert Thomas told reporters after Tuesday’s victory. “We’re getting goals from everyone and that’s really important. It seems like every night someone else is stepping up. That’s what in a long season it takes to be successful. That’s been our key.”

The Blues are earning trust. The Blue-colored bandwagon won’t stop unless the players wreck it with a return to substandard play. And when the injured players begin to reenter the season, they’d better find a way to put ego aside and keep the momentum going.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used here were sourced from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

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In a number of ways, the unpredictable, yo-yo Blues are doing the exact opposite of what we expect them to do.

They’re winning games at a rate that puts them only two points out of the second wild–card spot in the Western Conference. As of Monday morning FiveThirtyEight.com gave St. Louis a 43 percent probability of making the playoffs. The Note have moved up in the projections by earning points in 11 of their last 14 games, going 8-3-3.

Thanks to a strong, 3-1 road trip, the Blues’ playoff odds improved by 10 percent over the last week. Their three road victories came over winning teams – Toronto, New Jersey and Minnesota – that respectively rank 3rd, 5th and 13th in the NHL for best points-earned percentage.

The Blues are flourishing despite the epidemic of hurt that could have made this team crack. But that hasn’t happened. When the Blues closed the 3-1 travelog with a 3-0 Sunday triumph in St. Paul, they achieved the shoutout under unusual circumstances.

The Blues won it with a lengthy list of players sidelined by injuries: captain Ryan O’Reilly, scorer Vladimir Tarasenko, and defensemen Torey Krug, Nick Leddy, Robert Bortuzzo, Scott Perunovich and Marco Scandella.

The Blues are suddenly scoring goals at an accelerated pace – certainly a surprising development considering the team’s reduced manpower. More on this in a few moments.

Even though the Blues are winning – which is the bottom line, right? – they continue to be outplayed on a regular basis. During their 8-3-3 upsurge – competing in all situations — the Blues have only 46.3 percent of the overall shot attempts, 46.4% of shots on net, and 42% of the high–danger chances. With this discrepancy the Blues should be sinking … but they’re rising instead.

So, what’s up?

1. The Blues have found their scoring touch, and that can’t be underestimated as a prime factor in the success. In short: even though the Blues have had fewer shots and top-quality chances than their opponents in recent weeks, they’re doing a significantly better job of converting opportunities into goals.

STL’s improved goal-scoring punch began with a 4-3 shootout victory against Edmonton on Dec. 15. That initiated a 7-3-2 stretch in which the Blues have averaged 3.65 goals per 60 minutes in all situations. That’s ninth-best in the league over that time.

Before Dec. 15, the Blues (13-15-1) averaged 2.88 goals per 60 minutes, which ranked 23rd in the league. They’ve also gotten better offensively at 5-on-5 play. After averaging only 2.27 per 60 minutes in their first 29 games (23rd in NHL) the Blues have scored 3.02 goals per 60 over their last 12 games, 7th in the NHL.

The extra bang in scoring really matters. While the Blues Blues have reduced their overall rate of goals allowed per 60 over the last 12 games, they’ve actually given a higher rate of 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes (2.92) compared to their first 29 games (2.76.) But goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss have supplied good (if inconsistent) work in the net.

2. Let’s circle back and take a closer look at the Blues’ enhanced finishing touch during their 7-3-2 run. The shooting percentage tells us all we need to know. Shooting percentage – simply – is the number of shots on net that results in a goal.

— First 29 games: 9.72 shooting percentage in all situations, 19th in the NHL. And a 7.86 shooting percentage at 5-on-5, ranked No. 22 in the league.

— Last 12 games: 13.76 shooting percentage in all situations, tied for second–best in the NHL. And a shooting percentage of 12.08% at 5-on-5, which ranks second in the league.

This recent jump is reminiscent of what the Blues did last season in leading the NHL in shooting percentage at all strengths (12.4%) and at 5-on-5 (10.4%)

3. Obviously, several players have picked up the pace during the 7-3-2 bounce-back phase.

* Jordan Kyrou has nine goals and six assists over the team’s last 12 games.

* Through Dec. 15, Brandon Saad had only six goals in his 23 games but has turned it up for seven goals in his last 11 games – including five goals in the last four.

* After scoring only two goals in his previous 20 games, Brayden Schenn has three goals in his last four games. He also has nine assists in the team’s last 12 contests.

* Though missing time with an injury, Pavel Buchnevich has seven goals and 11 assists in his last 15 games.

* On the 3-1 road trip Schenn, Saad, Kyrou and Robert Thomas combined for 12 goals and eight assists. Ivan Barbashev and Buchnevich combined for two goals and seven assists in the four games. Even Colton Parayko is stepping up with four assists in the last four games.

4. We’ve seen past Blues teams pull together, take a stand, and rally during injury-related adversity. That response hasn’t always been there this season, but in this phase they’ve done an admirable job of digging in and battling instead of succumbing to their roster-shortage disadvantage. And with so many missing Blues, the depth has been a positive factor in the form of guys like Calle Rosen, Jake Neighbours, Josh Leivo, Nikita Alexandrov, Noel Acciari, Alexey Toropchencko, Tyler Tucker and Steve Santini. The question: can the Blues’ bullpen keep it going over time? That’s a big ask.

”We’ve lost a lot of players here, but we’ve got guys who are coming up and doing the job,” Blues coach Craig Berube told reporters after Sunday’s win over the Wild.

5. The team chemistry is in a positive place right now. I don’t know what this says – if much of anything – about the injured and inactive players. But if this trend rolls on, GM Doug Armstrong won’t be stricken with nausea if he decides to trade away pending free-agent veterans at the deadline.

The Blues have a terrific opportunity to show us who they are during a seven-game homestand that begins Tuesday night.

This team has been messing with our minds so I think it’s wise to keep the expectations level. The Blues (20-18-3) are doing a very fine job of playing through the recent chaos and turmoil, but this 7-3-2 turnaround can’t be just another apparition. Their long-term determination and consistency will determine their fate in 2023.

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

Stats used here were culled from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.

The post Bernie: The Recent Success Is Impressive. But Can the Blues Make It Last? Or Is This Just a Mirage? appeared first on Scoops.

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BERNIE BITS

Step right on up and take a peek at what I’m writing for you: do the Cardinals have a top-five MLB front office? … are the wacky Blues a better team without Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko? … does Scott Rolen make it to Cooperstown this year? … Torry Holt, Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist for the fourth time… RIP, Nate Colbert … Jordan Kyrou, not Vladimir Tarasenko, for the NHL All-Stars … investment advice on TCU vs. Georgia.

Let’s get this ride going!

THE CARDINALS HAVE THE FIFTH–BEST FRONT OFFICE IN THE MAJORS: That’s the assessment of Zachary D. Rymer, baseball analyst for Bleacher Report. He wrote a piece ranking the 30 front offices in order, and made his evaluations based on drafting-development, trades, free-agent signings, contract extensions and innovation. Rymer’s Top 5, in order: Atlanta, LA Dodgers, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and St. Louis. That’s quite a compliment to Cardinal president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and his crew.

Here’s Rymer:

“It already feels like forever ago that the Cardinals won the World Series in 2011 and then went back in 2013, but not because the franchise has endured any kind of fall from grace. Indeed, it has yet to have even one losing season under John Mozeliak.

“Not bad, considering that the Cardinals have never had better than the league’s seventh Opening Day payroll in this span. Notable deals with Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler and Willson Contreras notwithstanding, Mozeliak has largely favored the trade market over free agency for adding impact talent. That’s how Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado arrived in town, and one could say they’ve done well in St. Louis.

“Mozeliak has also kept up a strong tradition of developing players from within in recent years, and particularly in 2022, as the Cardinals got significant returns from five 25-and-under hitters. As the farm system remains loaded, it’s hard to see the Redbirds taking a turn for the worse under Mozeliak’s leadership any time soon.”

Moving On …

FIVE QUICK CARDINAL QUESTIONS FOR 2023: I’ll be writing a piece on this, adding more questions and in-depth answers. But here are a few things I’m wondering about on this 6th day of January.

— What kind of impact will Dusty Blake make as the new pitching coach? He has a forward-thinking mind, is well versed in the modern methods, and is up on all of the technology. With Blake as the pitching coach at Duke, the Blue Devils set program strikeout records in 2018 and 2019 and had the best ERA in the ACC in 2020. Blake has the approval of veterans such as Adam Wainwright. This will be interesting.

— Where does Moises Gomez fit in … provided that he has a legitimate opportunity to earn swings with the big club? The outfield already has many residents, and top prospect Jordan Walker is coming soon. Is there room at the inn for Gomez? Splitting the year between Double A Springfield and AAA Memphis, Gomes led all minor-league hitters with 39 home runs and slugged .624 last season Lots of strikeouts, though.

— OIi Marmol has several new coaches on board — and how much time will the new staff need time to make a smooth transition? Will the reordered staff work well, or will there be problems?

— Could a healthy Drew VerHagen emerge as an unexpected and positive surprise? I’m a skeptic, but …

— Why were the Cardinals (reportedly) willing to trade closer Ryan Helsey to Toronto in discussions for a Blue Jays catcher? That’s before the Cardinals signed catcher Willson Contreras as a free agent.

Moving On …

THE BLUES ARE BANANAS. There’s no sense in trying to figure this team out. They’re 7-2-3 in their last 12 games, including a 2-0 trip (so far) to Toronto and New Jersey. They’re doing just fine without injured defenseman Torey Krug, and they’ve won their first two games since captain Ryan O’Reilly and scorer Vladimir Tarasenko went on Long-Term Injured Reserve.

The question is admittedly premature, but are the Blues better off without O’Reilly and Tarasenko? We respect the heck out of O’Reilly but he’s having a mediocre season and is down from his usual high standards. O’Reilly has only six assists overall in 682 all-strengths minutes. And he has the NHL’s worst goal differential at even strength – minus 28 – among 198 forwards that have logged at least 300 minutes. As for the moody Tarasenko, his average of one goal per 60 minutes would be his poorest since his rookie year in seasons in which he’s played at least 34 games. Both guys are likely headed to free agency after the season, and could be moved before the March 3 NHL trade deadline.

With that 7-2-3 record, the Blues rank 8th in the NHL in points-collected percentage (.708.) since Dec. 11. That looks good, right? Well, since Dec. 11 they’ve also ranked 28th in expected goal share (43.2) at 5-on-5, and also rank 28th in high-danger shots percentage. They won at Toronto and New Jersey despite getting only 37.7 percent of the shot attempts, 41% of the shots on goal, and 45.5 of the goals scored at 5-on-5 during the two games combined. (Shakes head. Makes little sense.)

Moving On …

JORDAN BINNINGTON: He was outstanding in the 5-3 win at New Jersey, but the overall consistency is lacking. Among the 27 NHL goaltenders that have played in at least 20 games this season, Binnington ranks 23rd with a .467 Quality Start percentage. And he’s tied for the bottom spot in the “Really Bad Starts” category listed at Hockey Reference. Oddly enough, the two goaltenders with the most Really Bad Starts this season are Binnington and former Blue Ville Husso, now with Detroit.

JORDAN KYROU. NOT TARASENKO. It ain’t that big of a deal, but Kyrou is more deserving than Tarasenko in getting the invitation to play in the All-Star game the weekend of Feb. 3-4. For now Tarasenko is the lone St. Louis representative but could get the call to go to South Florida if Tarasenko can’t play because of his hand injury. In 36 games, Kyrou leads the Blues in goals (19) and points (38) and has more assists than Tarasenko as well. Kyrou has outscored Tarasenko 12-7 at even strength, and by an 11-5 count at 5-on-5. Kyrou isn’t exactly Spartacus when it comes to defending, but I don’t think we’ll see Tarasenko in contention for the Selke Trophy, which goes “to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.”

So who’s the better offensive player?

This:

— Goals per 60 minutes, all situations: Kyrou 1.74, Tarasenko 1.01.

— Points per 60, all situations: Kyrou 3.48, Tarasenko 2.93.

Moving On …

SCOTT ROLEN: IS THIS THE YEAR? Rolen made a significant move upward in the 2022 Baseball of Fame balloting, pulling in 63.2 percent approval from the baseball-writing voters. The threshold for induction is 75 percent of the vote, and Rolen has a shot to clear the mandatory requirement. The results will be announced Jan. 24. Rolen, a Cardinal for six seasons, seemingly is on the cusp of Cooperstown certification. Among voters that have made their ballots public, Rolen was standing at 81.3 percent as of Friday afternoon. The Cardinal Hall of Famer will advance to Cooperstown. But will it be this year?

THE CASE FOR ROLEN: Rolen was an NL Rookie of the Year. He was chosen for seven All-Star games and earned eight Gold Gloves. He ranks eighth in MLB history with 70.1 WAR among regular third basemen. (Edgar Martinez and Paul Molitor are listed as third basemen but took a substantially higher percentage of their at-bats as designated hitters.)

In MLB history only two third basemen have hit 300+ home runs and won eight or more Gold Gloves: Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen.

Rolen ranks sixth all-time among third baseman with 21.2 defensive WAR.

Chris Budig of the essential CooperstownCred site provided this valuable research and information: Only nine other players with a WAR of 70 or higher that have been eligible for the Hall of Fame did not gain passage to the shrine. Three of the 10 exhausted their 10 years of eligibility on the 2022 BBWAA ballot. (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling.) There’s Alex Rodriguez, who is on the ballot for the second time in 2023. The other five are Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Rafael Palmeiro, and 19th-century players Bill Dahlen and Jim McCormick. Pete Rose (79.6 WAR) is not eligible for the Hall of Fame because of his lifetime ban from baseball.

(There’s so much more to Rolen’s case but I don’t think you want me to write a book here.)

Here’s Rolen’s yearly tracking in the voting in the quest of making it to 75 percent:

— 10.2% in 2018
— 17.2% in 2019
— 35.3% in 2020
— 52.9% in 2021
— 63.2% in 2022.

After a very slow start, more ballot spaces have gradually opened for Rolen because of other worthy candidates being voted into Cooperstown over the past five years. Rolen has made tremendous headway in the voting.

Here’s Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs, the highly respected Hall of Fame analyst: “Having advocated for Rolen from the beginning of his candidacy because the numbers fully support a player who always impressed and often wowed me, I’m gratified that the notion that he’s a Hall of Famer has gained wider acceptance. Even if he doesn’t get elected via this ballot, it’s clear that he’s on his way to Cooperstown, and by the time he’s in, the minds of more voters will have been changed over the course of his run than for any other candidate. Still, it would be particularly great if he could get there on the 2023 ballot, because without him, this summer’s Induction Day could be a very small ceremony.”

Moving On …

TORRY HOLT: The great St. Louis Rams wide receiver is a Pro Football Hall of finalist for the fourth time. The voting will be conducted before the Super Bowl. Holt has been waiting long enough. I will take a deeper look at his case before then, but for now I’ll offer a few brief points:

* Once again Holt is part of a glut of wide receivers on the modern-era ballot. In addition to Holt, the group of 15 finalists includes wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Andrew Johnson – plus Devin Hester, a WR better known for his extraordinary track record in returning kickoffs and punts.

* At the time of his retirement, Holt ranked third all-time in receiving yards per game, ninth all-time in receptions (920) and eighth in total receiving yards (13,382).

* In the history of the NFL, Holt has the highest number of catches and most receiving yards in a single decade. No matter what decade another receiver starred in, no one can match Holt’s 12,594 receiving yards and 868 receptions in the 2000s. These are both the highest totals for a receiver in ANY decade, going back to the 1960s.

More from me on Torry … soon.

Moving On …

GEORGIA AGAINST TCU, INVESTMENT ADVICE. The Dawgs are a 12.5 point favorite to beat TCU. But sharp Mike Tierney – who has a 24-14-2 record against the spread in his last 40 wagers – is on TCU to cover in Monday’s national college football championship.

Moving On …

CONDOLENCES: St. Louisan Nate Colbert passed away Friday at age 76. The Sumner High grad was a big–league first baseman from 1966 through 1976, and spent the bulk of his career (six seasons) with the San Diego Padres. From 1969 through 1973, Colbert ranked second among MLB first basemen with 149 homers; only Lee May (168) had more over that time. And Colbert’s 427 RBI from 1969 to 1973 were fourth among first basemen, trailing only May, Boog Powell and Willie McCovey.

Colbert is San Diego’s all-time franchise leader with 163 homers. His biggest day in the big leagues came on Aug. 1, 1972 when Colbert tied his childhood hero Stan Musial by hitting five home runs in a doubleheader.

Among the fans in Sportsman’s Park for Musial’s 1954 home-run barrage was young Nate Colbert, age 8. Fittingly, Musial and Colbert share that five-homer record which still stands today. From 1971 through 1973, Colbert played in three straight All-Star games and received MVP votes in ‘72.

Colbert took big swings and never worried about striking out … which he did frequently.

As the late writer-cartoonist Bob Carroll once wrote of Colbert, “He could hit home runs … but he also fanned more often than Scarlett O’Hara during a Georgia July.”

In 1972 Colbert knocked home 111 runs, which accounted for 22.75 percent of the Padre runs that season. For perspective, esteemed baseball historian John Thorn noted that Hack Wilson drove in 19.04 percent of the Cubs’ runs in setting a major-league record of 156 RBI in 1930. And a year later, when Lou Gehrig produced an astonishing 184 RBI, his remarkable total accounted for 17.24 of the Yankees’ runs in 1931. (This is such a fun stat; thank you John Thorn.)

“I was an everyday player,” Colbert said of his career. “I didn’t ask out of the lineup. I was hard working. I gave them great defense at first base. I was a power hitter. I hit home runs. I could run. I didn’t have a high average, but I thought I was a good, clutch player.”

Thanks for reading …

Have a great weekend.

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie Bits: Kudos For the Cardinals Front Office, Scott Rolen and Torry Holt, Tracking the Crazy Blues + More appeared first on Scoops.

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ALL ABOARD!

BERNIE BITS!

MIZZOU TAKES A HIT ON THE ROAD. The Tigers played at Arkansas on Wednesday night in their first SEC road game of the season. Missouri couldn’t sustain a strong early performance and went down 74-68. After sprinting to a 25-8 lead, MU was outscored 66-43 over the final 31 minutes and 29 seconds.

KOBE BROWN AND D’MOI HODGE: Brown and Hodge combined for 51 points in Mizzou’s win over Illinois, and followed that with 45 combined points in the victory against Kentucky. But in the loss at Arkansas Brown and D’Moi Hodge combined for only five made field goals and 17 points in 48 minutes. Mizzou has good depth and other capable scorers, but opponents won’t be so permissive in letting Brown and Hodge beat them. Brown became a non-factor because of early foul trouble, and Hodge couldn’t shake off the tight defense played by Arkansas guard Davonte Davis … After leading 34-27 at the break, Missouri’s defense dissolved. In the second half Arkansas made 61.5 percent of its second-half shots from the floor, and scored on 22 of 33 possessions (66.7%) … Arkansas had a 15-9 edge in offensive rebounding and used that for a 17-8 advantage in second-chance points … A Mizzou offense that usually thrives in transition was outscored 18-11 on fastbreaks … for all of the complaining about officiating, Missouri took only two fewer free-throw attempts than Arkansas for the game … bottom line: it’s tough to win on the road in the SEC, and it ain’t going to happen when your two best players (Brown and Hodge) have little impact and your defense collapses in the second half.

NO SHAME IN THIS LOSS. Arkansas, a Final Four team in 2022, is currently the nation’s No. 9 team overall according to KenPom, and the Razorbacks rank 5th nationally in defense and 17th nationally in offensive rebounding. Mizzou will learn from the experience in Fayetteville. But this undersized MU team will likely be at a disadvantage on the boards all season, and SEC coaches will use video of the Arkansas swarm to attack Mizzou’s No. 1 vulnerability by bringing even more force to the offensive glass. Mizzou will have to do a better job of blocking out and fighting for rebounds. The Tigers are ranked No. 357 in the nation by KenPom in their defensive-rebound percentage, and that’s concerning.

Moving On …

CURIOUS WORDS FROM JIM BOWDEN: The former MLB general manager (Reds, Nationals) and current baseball analyst for The Athletic had this to say about the Cardinals earlier this week in a piece that assessed what each MLB team is up to:

“Cardinals — assessing the trade and free-agent markets … the Cardinals filled their biggest offseason need when they signed catcher Willson Contreras. Now they are open-minded in looking for ways to improve their team. They are actively pursuing trades and keeping tabs on the free-agent market. It is believed the Cardinals are working to acquire a certain player but want to make sure more specifics don’t become public because it would hurt their chances of completing a trade. They’re not done making moves.”

Intriguing.

Or maybe weird.

Moving On …

BLUES AT NEW JERSEY. WHAT’S NEXT? After an unexpected 6-5 shootout victory at Toronto on Tuesday, the Blues (18-7-3) will try to follow that up with a successful Thursday night in Jersey. The Devils (24-11-3) have the fifth-best points percentage in the NHL (.671) and rank second in the league with a 59.6 percent goal share at 5-on-5. The Blues are 25th in the NHL with a 5-on-5 goal share of 46.4%. And that was a problem at Toronto, with the Blues getting outscored 4-2 by the Maple Leafs at 5-on-5.

Look, I was happy that the Blues got two points in Toronto, and they did it by scoring goals in all sorts of ways including two on the power play and one shorthanded. And to win in their first game without the injured Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko was a plus. But here’s the thing: the Toronto triumph was nice, but why don’t we see this more often? If you can win in Toronto against one of the best teams on the circuit, then you should have been winning more games all along. The Blues have an opportunity to increase their shaky credibility by winning at New Jersey. And keep this in mind: the Devils are a mediocre 10-9-2 at home this season for a home-ice points percentage of .524 that ranks 22nd in the NHL.

TWEET FROM JEREMY RUTHERFORD: “Blues veterans much better after chat with GM Doug Armstrong.” This isn’t directed at JR, the top-notch Blues beatwriter for The Athletic. I just wanted to say that it’s really swell how the veterans feel after the big boss told them they need to raise their performance level and bring dedication and intensity to every game. Via Brayden Schenn, the players agreed with Armstrong’s assessment. That’s really gracious of them.

ARMSTRONG AND COACH CRAIG BERUBE: I appreciated Army’s criticism of his team’s performance when he offered blunt comments on Monday. But Armstrong put this team together, and spent a lot of payroll dollars on underperforming players, and assumed that they’d at least work hard to clean up their mistakes and display more commitment to the 5-on-5 game. So even if his criticism is on point, Armstrong is ultimately responsible for the team that we see on the ice. And he’s made mistakes with his payroll investments. As for Berube, here’s a simple but important question: he repeatedly cites the things the Blues must do to improve, but the players aren’t close to being consistent about putting Berube’s words into action, which means they aren’t paying much attention to those words … So what does this say about the coach and his players?

Moving On …

ASSORTMENT OF STUFF: Bad loss for Saint Louis U, which surrendered too many times on defense in a 90-81 loss at UMass. The Billikens are 9-6 overall, and that’s ridiculous considering that they’re the 12th most experienced team in the nation (per Ken Pom) … SLU ranked 81st in defensive efficiency last season and that’s dropped to the No. 159 ranking this season … the Billikens are also ranked No. 356 in the nation defensively in the percentage of forcing turnovers …

Excellent hire by Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who is bringing in Fresno State offensive coordinator Kirby Moore to take over the same job for the Tigers. Moore is a rising-star coach who played an important role in Fresno State’s 10-win season. Fresno State became the first team in FBS history to win 10 games after going 1-4 to start the season. The Bulldogs averaged 34.4 points per game during their nine-game winning streak. After missing two games Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener completed 72.2% of his passes for 2,042 yards, 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions in his final seven games …

Swing and a miss: By last count, and as of this writing, Kevin McCarthy was 0-for-7 in the voting on his bid for Speaker of the House. And you thought Paul DeJong has a strikeout problem.

I love watching George & Tammy on Showtime … and do not expect me to apologize for this. I’ve been a big fan of the late George Jones, aka The Possum, for decades. And what can we say about Tammy Wynette, the Heroine of Heartache? She stood my her man too many times, but true love does that to people. Just remember the lyrics to one of their biggest duet hits … lyrics that offer a lesson on true love: “By itself, it’s just a cold metallic thing / Only love can make a golden wedding ring.” Then there’s one of many George Jones classics: “If Drinkin’ Don’t Kill Me (Her Memory Will.)”

I’m surprised that no MLB team has taken a flier on the frequently injured ex-Cardinal pitcher Alex Reyes …

Maryland-style Cream of Crab Soup: I made a pot on New Year’s Day, and it was fabulous, and you should be envious … all kidding aside, here’s a simple recipe. I add some of my own flourishes, but this recipe is great on its own.

Writing at STLtoday, the great Derrick Goold offered these five names of available free agents that could potentially help the 2023 Cardinals: lefty relievers Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore, righty relievers David Phelps and Michael Fulmer, and switch-hitting utility tool Jurickson Profar …

I never got the chance to watch “Ray Donovan” as it was airing on real time at Showtime, but I’ve now completed the first two of seven seasons. I have a question: does Ray ever sleep?

This mess with USMNT coach Gregg Berhalter and the Reyna family is an embarrassment for all involved and I don’t see how Berhalter can retain his job. His contract is up, and the men’s national soccer program doesn’t need the distractions and clouds that will linger if he’s brought back …

If you combine the fourth quarter of last year’s national college football championship with the fourth quarter of Saturday’s national semifinal win, here’s what Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett did (combined) in those fourth quarters: a completion rate of 88 percent, 273 yards passing, four touchdown throws, and no interceptions. Georgia came back to win both games, erasing late deficits against Alabama and Ohio State …

Here’s another reason why the peoples love TCU football. We present the number of four-and-five star recruits on the rosters of the four teams that made it to the college-football semifinals: Georgia 68, Ohio State 66, Michigan 66, TCU 18. Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite to defeat TCU in the national title game …

Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino … gee, what can go wrong? Two massive egos and stubborn coots working in the same suite of offices at Texas A&M? How long before Petrino attempts a palace coup?

Sigh. Earlier this week Our Town’s Bradley Beal injured his left hamstring for the second time in two weeks and has missed 15 of Washington’s first 39 games of this NBA season. “It’s just tough with hamstrings, man, because you just don’t know (when it’s fully healed),” Beal said. “I think that’s the frustrating part. You can feel fine and you go out and you try to run, try to do something explosive, and it’s just like, ‘Oh, no! I’m not ready.’ “

Moving On …

DYLAN CARLSON: Despite a cold start to 2021 and the wrist and thumb injuries that deflated his offense over the final two months of 2022, Carlson still ranked 18th among MLB outfielders with 5.0 WAR over the last two seasons. (Minimum 1,100 plate appearances.) And from July 19 of 2021 through the end of July of 2022, here’s what Carson generated in 566 plate appearances: .266 average, .335 onbase percentage, .455 slug, .790 OPS, 36 doubles, four triples and 17 home runs. During this stretch he was 19 percent above league average offensively per wRC+. Carlson is 24 years old.

NL CENTRAL WATCH: CUBS SIGN ERIC HOSMER. Pretty good move by the Cardinals’ historical rival. They added a solid starting first baseman at a salary of $720,000 for 2023. The cost was cheap because the Padres will be paying Hosmer $39 million guaranteed over the next three seasons. Last summer the Padres traded Hosmer to the Red Sox and then the Red Sox designated him for assignment earlier this offseason. Hosmer has performed six percent above league average offensively over the past two seasons, with a decent OBP (.336) and some power (.389 slug.) The Cubs were in need of a starting first baseman, and Hosmer makes sense as a short-term fix. The Cubs have quietly improved their infield from last season by signing shortstop Dansby Swanson to a seven-year $177 million contract, moving Nico Hoerner from shortstop to second base, and bringing in Hosmer for minimal dollars. The Cubs also boosted their center field defense – and maybe offense – by signing Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal. Cubs center fielders combined for only 1.5 WAR last season and were 10 percent below league average offensively. In addition, Cubs center fielders were a hideous minus 19 in defensive runs saved in 2022.

NL CENTRAL WATCH: BREWERS SIGN DREW MILEY. The veteran lefty starter gets a one-year deal for $4.5 million. Miley can gain an extra $1.5 million through incentives. As a Cub last season Miley missed 138 days with shoulder and elbow injuries but had a nice ERA (3.18) in his nine appearances (eight starts.) He pitched well for the Reds in 2021, filing a 3.37 ERA in 163 innings. This is a reunion of sorts; Miley went 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 16 starts with the 2018 Brewers. If Miley (age 36) can stay healthy, he’ll help the Crew. But if he has another physical breakdown, the sunken cost won’t be too painful for the Brewers front office … Milwaukee added more pitching insurance by signing former Braves-Pirates righthander Bryse Wilson, who has a 5.54 ERA in 56 MLB games. But he’s only 25 and still has some potential.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac.

The post Bernie Bits: Mizzou Hoops, George and Tammy, Cardinals Intrigue, Armstrong-Berube + Crab Soup Recipe! appeared first on Scoops.

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BERNIE BITS

Hey, settle in, take your time and read your way through a massive serving of the year-end Bernie Bits. New Year’s weekend has to feature some excess, so I’ve done my part, and what I have to offer is harmless.

So let’s get started.

FIRST UP …

Despite what you may have heard from your crabby neighbor Johnny, some grunting weightlifting dude at the gym, your sweet Grandma Ella, your pastor, or perhaps a pilates instructor, the Cardinals had one of the best offenses in the majors in 2022.

An impressive pile of stats tell us so. Even though – as yelping critics frequently told us – the Cardinal jitters were ruined by the worst hitting instructor in the history of all mankind – the Redbirds produced a very good profile.

One of the finest in MLB.

Have a look:

— Tied for 5th in the majors with an average of 4.77 runs per game.
— 1st in the NL and second overall with a team OPS+ of 114.
— 4th overall for the lowest team strikeout rate.
— 4th overall for most times on base.
— 5th overall in park–and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+).
— 5th overall in onbase percentage.
— 5th overall in OPS with runners in scoring position.
— 6th overall in extra-base hits.
— 6th overall in total bases.
— 7th overall in slugging percentage.
— 10th overall in batting average.

Not bad considering that the Cardinals played half of their games in a home ballpark that was rated as the seventh-worst venue for hitters in 2022. Not bad considering the down years offensively for Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson and the absolutely horrendous offense at the catcher position. It sure did help Albert Pujols launching rockets after the All-Star break — homering 18 times and slugging a preposterous .715 in 178 plate appearances.

St. Louis was terrific at running the bases in 2022, ranking seventh in the majors with a plus-70 net baserunning gain. The Cards were tied for 11th in MLB with 95 stolen bases, and finished sixth overall with a success rate of 79 percent on steals.

Last season Cardinals position players ranked No. 3 in MLB with 32.8 WAR (FanGraphs version.) Only the Dodgers and Yankees had more non-pitcher fWAR than the Cardinals in 2022.

The Cardinals crashed in the postseason, scoring three runs in two games in getting swept by Philadelphia 2-0 in the NL wild-card series.

It’s funny – or maybe sad – that an admittedly pathetic performance in two postseason games can void out 162 regular-season games of mostly outstanding offense, but that’s just how it goes in our short attention span culture.

Two things about that: (A) As I’ve written and said many times in agreement with your opinion, the Cardinal front office hasn’t been aggressive about building a complete team that’s more capable of making a successful postseason run. And (B) when Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Albert Pujols go a combined 3 for 23 with seven strikeouts and no RBI in the two-game failure to the Phils, I’m not sure what you expected to happen. The chances of bopping the Phillies out of the tournament were greatly reduced by The Big Three’s quiet 48 hours at Busch Stadium.

I felt it was important to go back in time to form a more intelligent perspective on the overall quality of the STL offense in ‘22. It’s part of a larger picture.

As the Cardinals get closer to the opening of their 2023 spring-training camp, I wanted to make note of how the team is evolving on the field.

Combining the 2021 and 2022 seasons, the St. Louis position players ranked fourth in the majors in fWAR.

Contrast that to the St. Louis pitchers who were 20th in fWAR over the past two seasons including the No. 19 ranking in starting-pitching WAR.

In 2021 and ‘22, St. Louis fans and media invested an exhausting amount of hours discussing the Cards’ pitching injuries, pitching shortages, the alarming cracks in the rotation, and the desperate need to acquire help through trades. Too often the Cardinals have gone into competitions with a pitching staff weakened in quality and stability.

The Redbirds have become more dependent on their offense to compensate for the chaos on the pitching side. Over the past two seasons combined the Cardinals ranked 10th in the majors by scoring six or more runs in 105 games. When plating at least six runs in a contest the Cardinals had a record of 94-11.

I don’t know if I’d call this a hit–first team, but the offense – hitting and baserunning – is the strongest component. And it may go that way again in 2023.

So far the Cardinals haven’t touched their pitching staff in advance of next season. Perhaps that will change. Or maybe we’ll see a deal for a starting pitcher before the Aug. 2023 trade deadline.

The one big move this offseason was signing free agent Willson Contreras to a five-year, $87.5 million contract to provide a huge offensive boost at the catcher spot. Among MLB catchers that have at least 1,500 plate appearances since 2016 when playing the position, Contreras ranks No. 1 in OPS and wRC+ and is fourth in slugging. Over the past two seasons St. Louis catchers were near the bottom of the positional rankings offensively, positing a 68 wRC+ that was 32 percent below league average. It won’t be easy to replace Pujols’ offense, but a committee of young and promising designated hitters should be fine. And if O’Neill and Carlson can give the Cardinals a season worth of bounce-back offense, the worries will subside.

When MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince recently ranked the 2023 MLB offenses in order of anticipated effectiveness, he placed the Cardinals at No. 5 overall behind the Mets, Padres, Astros and Blue Jays.

“Though the Cards will sure miss that surprisingly vintage performance they got from Albert Pujols in the second half of 2022, Contreras (132 wRC+ in ’22) replacing Yadier Molina (51) is pretty much as big an offensive upgrade as you can possibly make with a single signing,” Castrovince wrote. “Thanks to MVP-caliber seasons from Goldschmidt and Arenado and the emergence of the likes of Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar, the Cards ranked fifth in runs (772) and wRC+ (114) last year. They could further be boosted by top prospect Jordan Walker.”

The early prorated Steamer Projections for 2023 show 13 Cardinals hitters turning in an above-average performance next season. That includes would-be slugger Moises Gomez, the outfielder who led all minor-leaguers with 39 homers last season.

READING TIME 10 MINUTES:

1. With Missouri basketball off to a 12-1 start and scorching with consecutive late-December victories over ranked teams Illinois and Kentucky, let’s give some credit to Texas A&M coach Buzz Williams. Why? In October, when the SEC coaches met with the media, Williams predicted big-time success for first-year Mizzou coach Dennis Gates. You may have heard about the comments at the time, but Williams’ words didn’t get a lot of attention. What he said is worth repeating, in two parts:

— “He’s a star,” Williams said of Gates. “He’s an absolute star. I think he works at his craft incredibly hard. I think he’s been preparing for this moment for a long, long time.”

— “The ability that he has to lead as a person speaks for itself and I think what he’s been able to do in a brief head-coaching career, it says that he can lead an organization,” Williams said. “I think he will do great at Missouri, I think he’s deserving of the opportunity. He’s earned it.”

Before becoming the head coach at Cleveland State and winning two Coach of the Year awards there, Gates had a long run as an up-and-coming assistant under future Hall of Fame coach Leonard Hamilton. Williams – the head coach at Virginia Tech from 2014 through 2019 – became familiar with Gates when the Hokies clashed with the Seminoles in ACC play.

2. Here’s more on Moises Gomez in the form of a recent prospect scouting report from Baseball Prospectus. I’ve been guilty of overlooking Gomez, but he may bash his way to a promotion to St. Louis in 2023.

“Gómez never got a ton of attention in the super deep Tampa Bay Rays systems of the late-2010s, and a disastrous post-pandemic season in Double-A dimmed much of his remaining prospect luster,” BP wrote. “The Rays released him after 2021, and the Cards picked him up. He promptly hit the most home runs in the minors, slugging over .600 between Springfield and Memphis. The power is legit, plus-plus potential, and Gómez doesn’t need to get it right on the sweet spot to pull it out of the park. There’s still a lot of swing and miss here, and he’s not going to provide a ton of defensive value. Still, Gómez is at least ready to offer some right-handed platoon pop, and St. Louis must figure the same, as they added him to the 40-man after the season.”

3. Bradford Doolittle of ESPN.com ranked the Cardinals as the seventh-best team in the majors (and fourth in the NL) after assessing each team’s offseason activity up until Christmas. Doolittle listed the Cardinals at No. 10 in the most-improved category. He projected 92.3 wins for the Redbirds and gives St. Louis an 84% chance of making the postseason. Doolittle put the Mets, Padres, Yankees, Braves, Rays and Astros ahead of the Cardinals. The Blue Jays, Dodgers and Guardians were spotted behind the Cardinals to complete the in-progress Top 10.

4. Credibility … going, going … almost gone. On Thursday, Mizzou announced that quarterback Brady Cook had surgery on his throwing shoulder and had been playing with a torn labrum since the team’s Sept. 10 game at Kansas State. For the second straight year, head coach Eli Drinkwitz knowingly played an injured quarterback who couldn’t function at a normal capacity. In 2021 we watched QB Conner Bazelak play on one healthy leg and it was painful to watch. In 2022, Cook struggled with his downfield passing accuracy. Trying to do that with a damaged shoulder did not help the cause. Frankly, from a coaching standpoint, this is cuckoo. And really, really awful coaching.

4a. Here’s an on-point summation of the bizarre situation written by my friend Gabe DeArmond of PowerMizzou.com.

“At the end of last season everyone knew Bazelak was injured. And everyone said “I don’t care who plays QB, the QB play can’t be worse next year,’ Gabe wrote. “And then for much of this year, people believed the QB play was actually worse. And now everyone is saying ‘Cook was hurt all year. What was he doing? The alternatives can’t possibly have been worse.’ Except the guy making the call believed the alternatives absolutely were worse. And THAT’S what should worry you, not the fact that he kept playing Brady, but that he did it because he believed it to be his best option.”

Agreed. I don’t understand the folks who defend Drinkwitz by saying that the coach had no choice but to play Cook all season in 2022 – before and after the injury – because Cook was the best quarterback that Mizzou had. So he HAD to play his best option, right? No. Wrong. That’s just baloney. Brady Cook was Coach Drink’s best choice because he happened to be Coach Drink’s ONLY choice … and for the wrong reason. The coach didn’t have a competent, reasonably talented, ready-to-play quarterback to plug in for the injured Cook. And that is 100 percent the fault of Eli Drinkwitz.

For the third consecutive year, Drinkwitz started a QB that had been recruited by previous MU head coach Barry Odom. There are no excuses here. Making it worse, Drinkwitz has thrown wounded quarterbacks to the Bulldogs, Gators, Wildcats, Vols and other SEC predators for two years in a row. That’s brutally unfair to the quarterbacks. The coaching incompetence is stunning.

FINALLY, MY FRIENDS …

Here were the Top 10 most important stories/developments in St. Louis sports for 2022, at least in my opinion.

— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols
— Albert Pujols

It was an honor to watch him for the final time, a privilege to write about him, and incredibly thrilling to see him zone in to finish his career with 703 home runs.

Albert leaves as the only hitter in MLB history to amass 700+ homers, 2,000+ RBIs, and multiple league MVP awards.

Amazing. I miss him already.

Certainly Worthy Of Mention: Our Town’s Jayson Tatum received his third selection to the NBA All-Star game, earned first-team All-NBA honors for the first time, led his Boston Celtics to the Eastern Conference title and a spot in the NBA Finals. Despite losing to the Golden State Warriors, it was a fantastic season for Tatum and the Celtics. And the deep playoff run left Tatum with 1,693 career postseason points, which ranks 12th in Celtics history. Tatum is 27 points behind fellow St. Louisan Jo Jo White – the late, great Celtic – who ranks 11th in Boston franchise history with 1,720 postseason points. Tatum is only 24 years old, and will turn 25 in March. It’s remarkable what he’s already accomplished at such a young age.

There was the beloved Dick Vermeil’s induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame … Paul Goldschmidt won the National League MVP award, with teammate Nolan Arenado finishing third in the balloting … there was the exciting free-agent addition of slugging catcher Willson Contreras … St. Louis City FC opened a magnificent, breathtakingly beautiful futbol venue. City Park is a monument to the grand heritage of St. Louis soccer …

The Cardinals won 93 games, their most in a season since 2015, and made it to the postseason for the fourth consecutive year … catcher Yadier Molina went through a celebratory farewell season before retirement. But if we’re being honest about it, the experience was disappointing because of his excess weight, injuries, poor offense, and decision to leave the team during the season to watch over his pro basketball team during the league championship series in Puerto Rico …It was awesome to see two St. Louis dudes, Tim Ream and Josh Sargent, play for the United States during the World Cup. And Ream, in particular, was fantastic. Congrats to Ream and Sargant.

There was the free-agent departure of the clutch scoring winger and locker-room conscience David Perron, who wanted to stay with the Blues but was snubbed by management. It was a big mistake by the Blues, who are still paying the price for DP 57’s absence … while it lasted it was cool to see nine players score 20+ goals for the 2021-2022 Blues … and it was nice to see goaltender Jordan Binnington sharpen up and recover his form … three other important ongoing stories are the Blues being in danger of missing the playoffs, the unfortunate underachievement (so far) of Saint Louis U. basketball, plus another disappointing, disjointed and losing football season at Mizzou. Drinkwitz should have only one more season to get this right … on the happier side? Jordan Kyrou … the rise of Mizzou basketball under first-year coach Dennis Gates, who has given this program a higher standard, enthralling energy and an immensely entertaining style of hoops. Thanks, coach.

Arenado’s decision to remain with the Cardinals instead of opting out of his contract was a significant story; as it turned out Arenado left a small fortune on the table because he surely would have made a financial killing had he chosen to enter free agency. Given the trucks of money that are delivering massive piles of cash to top free agents in MLB this winter, Arenado showed character by appreciating what he has in St. Louis with the Cardinals.

There was the surprisingly terrific rookie season of Cardinal super-utility asset Brendan Donovan who won a Gold Glove… we were very happy when St. Louisan Jameson Williams was chosen 12th overall in the NFL Draft by the Detroit Lions despite suffering a torn ACL in his final game for Alabama. Williams, a tremendous wide receiver for the Crimson Tide, completed his rehab and made his NFL debut for the Lions on Dec. 4 …

Another heartwarming story was Jordan Goodwin, the Althoff and SLU alum who refused to give up on his dream and used hunger, determination and talent to create a roster spot for himself with the NBA Washington Wizards. In 27 games this season Goodwin is shooting 47.7 percent from the floor and averaging 7.6 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game … Goodwin joined fellow St. Louisan Bradley Beal, who became another big story locally when he signed a five-year, $251 million contract extension with the Wizards over the summer …

There was the disappointing two-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies in the NL wild-card series; the Cardinals have lost nine of its last 10 postseason games … it sure was a welcome announcement when the official word came through about the XFL Battlehawks giving it another go in St. Louis under new league leadership and ownership …Oli Marmol had a strong rookie season as the Cards manager, giving his offense more variety of matchup and platoons and positional versatility. And for the most part he handled the bullpen in expert style, making sure to do what he could to avoid bullpen burnouts that happen when a manager can’t discipline himself to use his best relievers responsibly. That said, Marmol’s bungling of the ninth-inning Game 1 of the Philly series — with a 2-0 lead going up in flames and smoke — was arguably the worst in-competition moment of the year in STL sports. But I’m glad that Marmol is the Cardinals manager and he’ll be even better in 2023.

I know I must have overlooked some items – unintentionally – but this wasn’t supposed to be a complete, 1,000-paragraph review of the entire year of STL sports.

On a separate note, I can’t thank y’all enough for taking the time to visit “Scoops” and read my work. But please believe me when I say I’m sincerely grateful.

Thanks for reading …

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

—Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post A Giant Serving Of Bernie Bits For Your Reading Pleasure — Including A Free-Form Year In Review For STL Sports. appeared first on Scoops.

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BERNIE BITS

1. The Future Of Missouri Football: The Mizzou administration provided security for football coach Eli Drinkwitz in the form of a contract extension that included a generous raise. Surely these people were smart enough to set aside money to pay Drinkwitz off should they decide to make a coaching change if he can’t show true progress in 2023. After three seasons Coach Drink is 17-19 overall, but let’s take a closer look at the record after subtracting games against FCS opponents and blood donors that are paid to give MU an easy win to concoct a misleading resume:

— 11-15 in the SEC.
— 3-13 in road and neutral-site games.
— 2-9 against ranked teams.
— 0-2 in bowl games.
— 15-19 vs. FBS teams.
— 4-14 vs. winning FBS teams.
— 11-18 vs. Power 5 teams.
— 6-13 vs. Power 5 teams over the last two seasons.

Drinkwitz was hired for his rising-star schemer on offense. But over the last two seasons MU has ranked 11th and 12th respectively among SEC teams in points per game in conference play. And over the same two years the Tigers have been ranked 10th and 12th respectively in the SEC in points per game against FBS opponents.

Per the Football Outsiders metrics, this season the Missouri offense ranked 71st in overall offensive efficiency, 90th in scoring value per drive, 94th in the percentage of drives that result in a touchdown, 104th in the percentage of drives that included at least one first down made, and 91st in the percentage of drives that ended in a fumble or interception.

Is there any excuse for an offense to be this barren in a coach’s third season – especially after the coach was hired based on his reputation for creative choreography on offense? Heck, it’s been three years and Drinkwitz still is searching for a quarterback that he trusts to give Mizzou a viable downfield passing attack.

Brady Cook – recruited by previous MU head coach Barry Odom – is a nifty runner and a tough competitor. But Cook attempted 100 passes to receiving targets that were set up behind the line of scrimmage, the fourth-highest total among Power 5 quarterbacks. And Cook ranked 53rd among 76 qualifying P-5 quarterbacks with a 32% percent completion percentage on throws of 20+ yards. As far as I’m concerned, four-star recruit Sam Horn doesn’t exist unless he plays a lot. And in 2022, the true freshman appeared for one series in a 45-14 homefield rout of New Mexico State late in the season. That’s it.

The industry has changed. The days of five-year building projects are gone. The timetable is shorter and we’re seeing coaches turn programs around in two years or less. We’re talking about TCU, Tennessee, USC, South Carolina and Illinois … among others.

Josh Heupel is 10-2 in his second year at Tennessee and was ranked as high as No. 2 this season. He’s 17-8 overall in two seasons after taking over a corrupt program that had players fleeing into the transfer portal. The Volunteers had lost 27 of 47 games over four seasons until Heupel took control.

South Carolina was 6-16 in 2019 and 2020. Shane Beamer was hired as head coach in 2021, and the Gamecocks are 15-10 in his first two years and can go 9-4 this season by defeating Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl.

After going 16-18 in Gary Patterson’s final three seasons, TCU is 12-1 under dynamic first-year coach Sonny Dykes. The Horned Frogs will face Michigan on Saturday in the national playoff semifinals.

The famed USC program had fallen into a state of mediocrity until hiring Lincoln Riley at the end of last season; in his year the Trojans can finish 12-2 with a win over Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.

Another example is Oregon State, which hired Jonathan Smith to rebuild a wretched mess of a program that had been largely irrelevant for years and years. By his third season Smith had a winning record (7-6) and followed that up in 2022 by winning 10 of 13 games including a blow-out victory over SEC representative Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl.

It’s a crazy and chaotic time to be a coach, with the advent of the NIL and the transfer portal. But it’s up to head coaches to adapt and find ways to make the new operating system work to his advantage.

Mizzou is 25-41 in the SEC since the start of the 2015 season, and the program is stuck in a rut of four consecutive non-winning seasons.

Earlier this week the Drinkwitz contract extension was a laughing-matter topic on the Paul Finebuam’s show, viewed nationally on the SEC Network

Drinkwitz will have a fourth season to get the Tigers rolling and winning. And if he can’t do that, it will be time for him to move on.

2. Great Opportunity For Coach Dennis Gates and Missouri Basketball: Kentucky invades Mizzou Arena on Wednesday night to take on Mizzou in a sold-out environment. This is a biggie for the Tigers, who can add to the credibility and excitement generated by last week’s 21-point demolition of Illinois in the Bragging Rights game in St. Louis.

At KenPom.com, Kentucky (8-3) is ranked No. 10 nationally, and Missouri (11-1) has moved up to No. 43. The Wildcats are a 3-point favorite in the betting markets, and KenPom gives Mizzou a 40 percent chance to win the game.

Keys for Mizzou:

— Swarm Kentucky’s massive 6-9, 260-pound force Oscar Tshiebwe, who routinely bullies opponents at both ends of the floor. His name appears on the KenPom national leaderboards for offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, blocked shots, and steals. The Tigers will have to use their quick-hands defense to pester the big man.

— It’s imperative for Mizzou to keep Tshiebwe off the boards to cut down on Kentucky’s offensive rebounds. This is a potential vulnerability for the Tigers. Here’s why: Kentucky ranks 12th nationally in offensive rebound percentage (37.6) and Missouri is No. 346 at denying offensive rebounds.

— Missouri has to continue buzzing for steals and finding ways to distract Kentucky into turnovers. The Tigers are No. 1 nationally in steals percentage (17%) and rank 4th by getting opponents to turn the ball over on 26.5% of possessions. A lot of this has to do with MU’s mostly soft schedule, but the Tigers had 13 steals against Illinois, forced 17 Illini turnovers, and converted those turnovers into 33 points. The home team must disrupt the Wildcats in a similar way.

— Missouri could be in for a frustrating, unsuccessful night if it can’t do enough to defend Kentucky’s ace three-point shooting. The Wildcats rank No. 3 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage (39.9%). And Mizzou ranks 327th in defending threes, allowing a shooting percentage of 37.7%.

This is a fantastic opportunity for Missouri to open SEC play with a bang. Gates has made a positive first impression. The Tigers have become a team to watch. They are entertaining. They are effective on offense and defense. The SEC site, Saturday Down South, has Missouri at No. 4 in the latest conference Power Rankings behind Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee.

3. The Blues: A Negative Trend Continues. The Blues went down Wednesday in a 5-4 overtime loss to the visiting Toronto. At least the Blues collected a point. But once again your favorite team failed to win a game in regulation, and that’s been a common occurrence this season. In their first 35 games the Blues have won only 11 times in regulation. Their regulation record is 11-16-8 for a points percentage of .429. That ranks 23rd among the 32 NHL teams.

The Blues’ .429 points percentage in games decided in regulation would be the worst in a season for the franchise since the sad-sack Blues finished with the NHL’s worst overall record (21-46-15) in 2005-2006. That team was 14-46-22 in games settled in regulation for a points percentage of .305.

4. The Blues are 16-16-3. They have picked up at least a point in eight of their last 11 games. But that isn’t doing a lot to enhance their playoff chances, which is listed as a 10 percent probability at MoneyPuck. The Blues must stop leaving points on the ol’ table. Having said that, the boys erased deficits of 3-1 and 4-3 on Wednesday, and I appreciate that. I would have more appreciation for the Blues if they didn’t put themselves in unfavorable situations. I’d much prefer to see the urgency from the beginning. The Blues have held the lead for an average of 16 minutes 23 seconds per game this season. On average, only seven NHL teams have led games for a lesser amount of time than the Blues in 2022-2023.

5. Lack Of Effort. Unacceptable. The Maple Leafs scored the overtime winner on a goal by William Nylander because Vladimir Tarasenko couldn’t be bothered to exert himself with the game on the line. Nylander breezed by the flat-footed spectator in the No. 91 sweater to give Toronto a two-point visit to St. Louis.

In Wednesday’s loss the Blues were outscored 4-2 by Toronto with Tarasenko on the ice, and he was minus 3 in goal differential at even strength. Tarasenko was also part of the power-play unit that gave up a shorthanded goal to the Leafs. This season Tarasenko is a minus 14 at even strength – which would be the poorest of his career in 11 seasons with the Blues.

6. The AFC Playoffs Should Be A Thrill. If you enjoy watching outstanding quarterback play, then the battle for the AFC Championship should be wildly entertaining. If the playoff field was set today, here’s the list of AFC starting quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes (KC), Josh Allen (Buffalo), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati), Lamar Jackson (Baltimore), Justin Herbert (LA Chargers), Trevor Lawrence (JAX), and Tua Tagovailoa (Miami.) Two asterisks: Jackson is currently sidelined with a knee injury but is expected to return before the postseason. And Tagovailoa is in the concussion protocol right now – coping with his second head injury (at least) of the season. His status going forward is uncertain.

The top five highest-scoring teams in the AFC would be represented in the postseason: Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Miami and Jacksonville. And the LA Chargers are 7th in scoring in the conference, so the AFC tournament would feature six of the top seven leaders in average points per game.

All of the quarterbacks cited here were first-round draft choices. They are young and talented and have many years to go. Mahomes, 27, is the oldest on the list.

7. Update On Our Town’s Bradley Beal: Rumors persist that the Los Angeles Lakers are interested in acquiring Beal from the Washington Wizards in a trade to give the Lake Show a strong third scorer and generator to join LeBron James and Anthony Davis. But nothing will happen unless Beal, who has a full no-trade clause, asks to be dealt to the Lakers. There’s nothing serious at this point. But Beal’s injury issues are serious. For the second time this season he’s been sidelined with a strained hamstring.

That follows a lengthy absence due to wrist surgery that cut short his 2021-2022 season. In fact, Beal has played in only 69 percent of Washington’s regular-season games over the last four seasons. Beal is presently in the first season of a five–year contract extension that will pay a remarkable $251 million.

In between injuries Beal, 29, is averaging 23.5 points per game and shooting a career-best .527 from the floor this season. But here’s the best stat on Beal: this season in clutch situations – defined as the final five minutes of a game with a five-point margin separating the two teams – Beal has made 68 percent of his shots from the field. That’s the highest clutch percentage on the Wizards and rates among the best in the NBA.

8. Final Blues Bit: The Blues were doing a swell job of preventing goals for a while, limiting opponents to a total of seven even-strength goals during a five-game stretch that ended Dec. 19. But that trend didn’t last. The Blues have been pelted for 12 even-strength goals in their last three games.

9. Can Ohio State Topple Georgia? Am I looney-tunes to think No. 4 Ohio State can upset No. 1 Georgia – or at the very least, cover the spread as a 6.5 point underdog? I think Ohio State is more dangerous BECAUSE of their humiliating 45-23 home loss to Michigan back on Nov. 26. I got to thinking about this angle after reading a quote from Georgia coach Kirby Smart, who talked about how the then-unbeaten Dawgs recovered from a bad loss to Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship game to reset and come back better than ever to defeat Alabama in last season’s national-title bout.

“You recalibrate, and you look back, and sometimes the reality of your weaknesses pop up a lot more in a loss,” Smart said. “We like to say, ‘Why you gotta lose to learn?’ You shouldn’t have to do that. But it certainly is a wake-up call on teams I’ve been with. It re-centered everybody and refocused everybody. But obviously, we’ve tried to do that without (losing this year.)”

All of that said, I still can’t shake the way Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud folded in the second half of the smackdown by Michigan, with the Buckeyes scoring only three points over the final two quarters. I don’t trust him in the REALLY big games. Georgia 37, Ohio State 30.

10. Will No. 2 Michigan face a live threat in the matchup against No. 3 TCU? The Wolverines are favored to win by 7.5 points. As much as I’ve loved watching TCU play this season, I don’t think Michigan will screw up enough to give TCU the opening for an upset. Michigan 37, TCU 26.

Thanks for reading …

– Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

The post Bernie Bits: Make Or Break 2023 For Drinkwitz, Big Opportunity for Mizzou Hoops, Bradley Beal, AFC QBs, College Football Playoff appeared first on Scoops.

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Have the Blues found their game? Has it been retrieved from mediocrity? Well, they’ve made progress, having gone 4-1-1 since Dec. 12. But I still don’t trust them. And why should we?

We’ve seen this act before. Winning streaks. Losing streaks. Up. Down. Hot and cold. Recovery and relapse. Effort. Hard Work. Laziness. Carelessness.

The Blues won their first three games of a five-game expedition through the far west. Jordan Kyrou was on fire, shooting flames for goals. The defense tightened. The mistakes were reduced. The minds were sharper. The goaltending was money.

Then came a blow-out loss at Seattle (5-2) followed by a late blown lead at Vegas, with the Blues settling for a one-point night instead of a two-point collection. They yielded nine goals (non-shootout variety) over the two games … and so much for cleaning things up.

After the Christmas rest, the Blues restart their season with Tuesday night’s game vs. Toronto. It’s the first of a three-game home stand, with Chicago coming to Enterprise Center on Thursday, and Minnesota checking in on Saturday.

After recovering from a head-slam hit and sitting two games to clear the clouds away, Kyrou should be back tonight. But the Blues will be missing defenseman Torey Krug for an indeterminate period of time. He’s been placed on long-term injured reserve with lower-body damage.

Krug’s absence could weaken a Blues power play that’s converted on 27.7 percent of the opportunities during the 4-1-1 warming trend. This season Krug ranks third on the team in power play goals (4) and is fourth in PP points (8). That said, the Blues have been outscored 31-21 this season when Krug is on watch at 5-on-5. He’s been awful in non-PP situations.

At least defenseman Calle Rosen will return from his state of involuntarily oblivion to get the first opportunity to fill in for Krug. For whatever reason, the Blues haven’t dressed Rosen for a game for a while … Dec. 8, to be exact. What a waste of a talent.

Rosen has six points in 17 games this season and is a plus 9 at even strength. When Rosen is deployed at 5-on-5, the Blues have outscored the enemy 15-6. That’s a whopping goal share of 71.4 percent for a team that’s weak at 5v5. But yeah, absolutely, let’s keep Rosen in street clothes. No need for a quality, productive defenseman in St. Louis, right? Frankly this is another reason why I’m reluctant to believe in the Blues who too often play the wrong personnel.

OK, back to the narrative.

Despite the Krug departure, the Blues return to the ice with a more confident mindset. The 3-0-1 tour through Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Seattle in Las Vegas had more good moments than bad, and the Blues bagged seven of a possible 10 points.

“The Western Canada swing was good with all six points there, finished with seven of 10,” defenseman Colton Parayko said to reporters, including Lou Korac of SI.com, during Tuesday’s morning skate. “I think we did a pretty good job. Long trip, I think it was maybe the longest one of the year. I thought it went well, try to build off that with three games here at home and hopefully a good start here after the break.

“We’re starting to find our game, finding the stride that we like to play. It’s no secret how we like to play, just get pucks deep, work hard, get pucks towards the net and things like that. I think when we play like that, we give ourselves a very good chance. When we work hard, our skill takes over for sure. We have enough skill where all that will take care of itself. I look forward to obviously this second half or however you want to call it after the break.”

If Parayko is accurate in his state of the team address, then the Blues should have a strong homestand. But we’ve been this way before. The Blues are 6-7-1 this season at Enterprise and rank 24th in the NHL in home-ice points percentage (.464.)

The special teams have been beneficial – rather than detrimental – to the Blues’ recent health. The power play has moved up to No. 12 in the NHL with a 23.4 percent success rate. The previously incompetent penalty-killing unit has ramped up to snuff 85.7 percent of opponent power plays over the last six contests.

But I’m skeptical about the foundational play. Special-teams effectiveness tends to fluctuate. As I’ve written too many times, Craig Berube hockey works only with a total buy-in from the players at 5-on-5, and that is where the Blues will win or lose most of their games.

In case you’re interested, the Blues have scored 46.58 percent of the goals at 5-on-5 in their games this season. If that figure holds, it would be the lowest (as in poorest) percentage of 5v5 goals in a season by the Berube-coach Blues since he took over on Nov. 19, 2018. And their percentage of high-danger goals scored (42.1) at 5v5 would also be the worst in a season by the Berube Blues. The current 5v5 save percentage (.912) cultivated by Jordan Binnington and Thomas Griess would also be the worst in a season under Berube.

Despite the recent increase in commitment in energy, the Blues still drag too often at 5-on-5. This season they’ve given up 2.76 goals per 60 minutes at 5v5, the seventh-worst rate in the league. Their overall yield – all situations – of 3.58 goals per 60 minutes is fifth-worst. But those numbers have improved during The Note’s current six-game upturn, so perhaps that’s an indicator of more consistent play.

We’ll find out a lot more during the three-game stay at Enterprise and the ensuing four-game road trip to Toronto, New Jersey, Montreal and Minnesota.

Five of the next seven games will be waged against opponents that currently are nestled in playoff spots. And as our good friend Jim Thomas of STLtoday noted, the Blues are 5-10-2 this season against teams that would be positioned in the playoffs if the postseason began today.

As of Tuesday afternoon, MoneyPuck gave the Blues a 9 percent shot of qualifying for the postseason. They can’t take the elevator there; the boys will have to do a lot of climbing. I want to trust the Blues, but I’m not there yet.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used in this column were sourced from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and MoneyPuck.

The post Bernie: The Blues Are Playing Better. But Do You Trust Them? appeared first on Scoops.

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No one is talking about Jordan Kyrou’s new contract.

Well, except for this: it looks like he’s earning it ahead of schedule, because the new eight-year, $65 million deal doesn’t go into effect until next season, and Kyrou is trying his best to make good on his employer’s investment.

These days we’re yammering over Kyrou’s goal-scoring spree, and how he’s lifting the Blues instead of sinking them.

Monday night Kyrou scored three times for his first career hat trick to lead the swarming Blues to a 5-1 victory in Vancouver. The swinging Blues have now won four in a row and will go for their fifth straight dubya tonight in Seattle.

We can give a generous share of the credit to Kyrou, who went nuclear for six goals and 10 points in the four wins.

In his last 18 games Kyrou has 12 goals and 15 assists for 27 points. Kyrou’s hot streak began Nov. 14, and over that time his 12 goals are tied for fifth for most in the NHL and his 27 points rank third.

We know that Kyrou is prospering when we see his name on the leaderboard covering the last five weeks with names like Connor McDavid, Jason Robertson, Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, Leon Draisaitl, Alexander Ovechkin, William Nylander and David Pastrnak.

Jeremy Rutherford (The Athletic) asked coach Craig Berube to explain Kyrou’s fast rise back to prominence after a slow start that immersed him in criticism.

“He’s been really strong on the one side of the puck. He’s been checking better,” Berube said. “You saw the other night, the play he makes on McDavid (bumping him off the puck and passing to Vladimir Tarasenko for the game-tying goal with 20 seconds left against Edmonton). That’s checking. He makes a strong play, lifting the stick and making the play to Vladi, and we get a goal. That kind of stuff is huge, and his work ethic without the puck is driving him right now, in my opinion.”

Work ethic?

Checking?

Jordan Kyrou?

My goodness, we have a transformation in progress. Or so it seems. Or maybe it’s just part of the maturation process for a 24-year-old, with his growth trying to take root at a time when so much more is expected of him. But Kyrou will have to extend his conscience over a much longer stretch of games to prove that he’s learned what it takes to become a more complete entity.

It’s great to see him taking responsibility for the all–around game instead of the fun and high-flying parts. No one is demanding that Kyrou evolve into a grinder; that would be a waste of his immense talent. But he’s showing that he’s capable of managing a game as well as changing it with his skill.

But the fatter paychecks are coming his way because of his super ability to skate like a blur, create space, make plays and sizzle the puck past helpless goaltenders.

Kyrou has 16 goals and 16 assists in 31 games this season. His rate of 1.7 goals scored per 60 minutes of ice time would be his highest mark in a season. His rate of 3.4 points per 60 would rank second.

All players have lapses, all go through slumps, all can let criticism eat away at their confidence. Kyrou knows all about that. When the Blues go into their frustrating funks, Kyrou is an easy target for snakes both inside and outside the locker room.

At times you’d think the dude was the Blues’ version of Paul DeJong in terms of satisfying the peoples. The rippage can be harsh. (I have also been harsh, and it was warranted.) But Kyrou also has enough talent to convert the angry noise into happy noise. Celebrating him is a lot more fun than hating on him.

And only Kyrou can control that, through effort and performance.

When you get paid, really paid, then it’s more difficult to please the fans and media and the snarkheads that circle on Twitter.

How important is Kyrou to the Blues’ fortunes this season? They are 8-3 when he scores at least one goal in a game … and 8-12-1 when he doesn’t. They are 13-6 when he notches at least one point in a game … and are 3-9-1 when he doesn’t.

The Blues (16-15-1) have tightened their defense during the current 4-0-1 phase, allowing only 1.8 goals per game overall, and 1.0 goal per contest at 5-on-5 play. They’re also snuffing the other side’s power play, killing off 17 of the last 19 penalties.

Kyrou is among the leaders of this uprising; with him on the ice (all strengths) during the last five games the Blues have outscored the opposition, 11-3 and have a 59 percent share of high-danger chances. Give this man a raise.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used here were sourced from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.

The post Bernie On The Blues: Jordan Kyrou Is Turning Jeers Into Cheers, And The Note Is Thriving. appeared first on Scoops.

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BERNIE BITS

The World Cup final between international football powers Argentina and France was spectacular and unforgettable and the perfect way to spend a Sunday morning. I don’t know if any one-off sporting event can ever top it. I know that qualifies as the kind of predictable and emotional declaration we tend to make in the immediate aftermath of witnessing something so extraordinary. But with billions watching this remarkable event around the globe, the world stopped for a few hours of relative peace and joy. Maybe that’s the real miracle of it all.

Argentina’s aging hero, the 35-year-old Lionel Messi, finally clutched his first World Cup trophy after so many failed lunges that left him flattened and devastated on the grass. If he needed a World Cup victory to certify his status as the G.O.A.T., then consider it done. (I must say, I’m a Pele loyalist.) This time, in his fifth and final World Cup – down to his last chance – Messi’s nation edged France and its uncontrollable 23-year-old powerhouse attacker Kylian Mbappé in a match overheated with fever.

Messi vs. Mbappé … I don’t know what to compare it too. Maybe Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird? Could it be Ali vs. Frazier? Or perhaps they gave us a duel that will stand alone, above all of the rest.

Two goals and the setup of a third goal by Messi, who artfully painted his name all over this epic final. Three goals by the unstoppable Mbappé, as France erased deficits of 2-0 and 3-2 in highly charged counterattacks that twice put the stunned Argentines on the verge of disaster.

Putting an end to the maelstrom, Argentina settled the 3-3 draw and simultaneously raised heartbeats and lowered pulse rates with a confident sequence of penalty kicks, prevailing 4-2. No team in sports is happier than the side that wins the World Cup every fourth year. No team is left more wrecked than the team that loses the final every fourth year. There is so much at stake, the pressure can cut off oxygen.

Argentina manager Lionel Scolini said, “The match was completely insane,”

His counterpart, France’s Didier Deschamps, said, “We managed to come back from the dead.”

The best of Argentina, the best of France, and the two best football players in the world. We saw the best of sport, any sport. And it was such a tremendous gift.

READING TIME, 5 MINUTES

What’s gotten into the Blues? Intensity? A sense of purpose? Enhanced mental clarity? It’s been a welcome respite from their depressing and maddening form. The Blues are 3-0-1 in their last four, collecting seven of a possible eight points. The best parts about the upturn? Three answers: (1) goal prevention, with only eight allowed overall during the last four games – including just four goals given up in 190 minutes of 5-on-5 play. (2) A formerly forlorn penalty-killing unit that’s terminated 13 of the opponent’s last 15 power plays. (3) Jordan Kyrou, with three goals and three assists and a +5 rating in his last three games. (4) Goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss combining for a .958 save percentage at 5-on-5 over the last four games. That includes an exceptional .939 save percentage on high-danger chances at 5v5.

Twitter be buzzing: Speaking on MLB Network, former MLB general manager Dan O’Dowd suggested this trade between the Cardinals and Pirates: Pittsburgh trades outfielder Bryan Reynolds to St. Louis for outfielders Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson and young starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore, the eternal prospect. A couple of things: (1) Reynolds has requested a trade from the chronic-loser Pirates; (2) the Pirates are under no obligation to trade him and a knowledgeable source tells me they don’t seem warm to the idea of moving him; (3) the Pirates would probably demand more from the Cardinals than other potential trade partners because they play in the same division as St. Louis. That’s what I think but am admittedly uncertain.

This one tweet about O’Dowd has bloggers wildly conjuring up trade packages. This is the season to play the role of fantasy GM. I offer no trade packages other than to say it would take more than Paul DeJong, Andrew Knizner and Drew VerHagen to land Reynolds. (Just kidding; I’m teasing y’all.)

Reynolds is a heck of a hitter. I’m tossing out the shortened 2020 season when he struggled at the plate for the only time in his four-season MLB career. Per OPS+, with 100 being the league average, Reynolds was 30 percent above league average offensively in 2019, and 36 percent above average over 2021-2022 combined. In 1,260 plate appearances over the last two seasons Reynolds has 51 homers, 54 doubles, 12 triples, 152 RBI, and a terrific 10.4 percent walk rate. (Plus he has a reasonable strikeout rate.) And over the past two seasons Reynolds is a .283 hitter with a good .368 OBP and .492 slug with a .861 OPS.

Reynolds, who bats from the right side, has performed well above average against RH pitching. For his career, in park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) vs. righties, Reynolds is 30 percent above league average offensively.

Contract: Reynolds can’t become a free agent until after the 2025 season. Here’s what Reynolds can’t do: play center field. He was minus 5 defensive runs saved in CF in 2021, and an awful minus 14 defensive runs saved in center last season. Statcast agrees; last season Reynolds was the poorest-rated center fielder in the majors ranking 46th at the position with minus 7 Outs Above Average.

There you have it. I’ve provided a scouting report for a Cardinals-Pirates trade that won’t happen. My work is done here …

In the 3-0-1 run, the Blues have outscored opponents 7-2 with Kyrou on the ice (all situations.) Similar standouts over the last four games are Robert Thomas, Ivan Barbashev and Brayden Schenn; the Blues outscored opponents 5-1 when any of those guys are on the ice at any strength.

The Blues are back to level (15-15–1) for the season. Per Money Puck, they have a 11.4 percent probability of making the playoffs. We’ll know more after the final three games of the current road trip: tonight at Vancouver, Tuesday at Seattle, and Friday at Vegas … Monday’s game at Vancouver has added importance; the Blues are in the scrum for one of the two wild-card spots. They have 31 points, only two ahead of the Canucks. As of Monday morning here are the wild-card points totals in order: Edmonton 35, Colorado 34, Calgary 34, St. Louis 31, Vancouver 29.

NFL stuff: My top five favorite quarterbacks to watch on a typical Sunday if they’re all in action: (1) Josh Allen; (2) Patrick Mahomes; (3) Joe Burrow, (4) Jalen Hurts, (5) Justin Herbert. Just missed: Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa. My three quarterbacks who provide consistent entertainment with their rollicking style of play, even if it doesn’t lead to consistent success: (1) Justin Fields, (2) Daniel Jones, (3) Taylor Heinicke. Finally, quarterbacks who now bore me the most: (1) Matt Ryan, (2) Aaron Rodgers, (3) Tom Brady.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac.

The post Bernie Bits: Celebrating Messi, Mbappé And An Extraordinary World Cup. Plus: Blues, Cardinals, And A Trade Rumor. appeared first on Scoops.

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BLUE NOTES!

LATE-NIGHT BLUES: We’ve figured out something that the Blues are really, really good at. The answer? They’re a terror in overtime this season. Their late-night mastery continued Thursday in Edmonton, when the Blues defeated the Oilers 4-3 in a shootout. The contest was deranged, featuring an abundance of bizarreness and chaos, but the Blues found a way to get out of there with two points.

With their latest escape the Blues are now 5-0-1 this season in games determined in overtime. That happens to be tied for the NHL’s third-best showing in overtime affairs this season:

Winnipeg 7-0-1, .938
Vancouver 6-0-1, .929
Tampa Bay 5-0-1, .917
St. Louis 5-0-1, .917
NY Isles 3-0-1, .875
Montreal 6-0-2, .875

WOULDN’T IT BE NICE … If the Blues displayed such loco urgency earlier in the competitions? They have a .400 points percentage in regulation this season, which is tied for 26th in the NHL. The Blues are 9-15-6 in regulation-time hockey; only Anaheim (20), Chicago (17) and San Jose (16) have lost more times than St. Louis in games that don’t last beyond three periods.

BLUES ARE FORTUNATE: Given their 14-15-1 record and and the erratic pattern to their season — the boys go from good to awful and awful to good on a minute-to-minute basis, the Blues are in surprisingly decent shape if you look at the current wild-card accounting in the Western Conference. St. Louis has 29 points, only three behind co-leaders Colorado and Calgary in the race for the No. 2 wild card. Vancouver also has 29 points, right there with the Blues. Your favorite hockey team will have a chance to do something about this during the remaining four games of their road trip, with a skirmish Friday night at Calgary and Monday’s conflict at Vancouver.

HELLO, TARASENKO: Vlad has checked in with four goals in his last seven games including the tying biscuit with 19 seconds left in the third period at Edmonton last evening. But Tarasenko is still lagging behind last season’s pace of 1.6 goals per 60 minutes (all situations.) Going into Friday’s tussle, Tarasenko has a rate of 1.1 goals per 60 minutes in all situations. He’s also stuck at minus 11 on the season in even-strength goal differential.

KYROU, WE SEE YOU: The Blues are 11-6 this season when Jordan Kyrou has at least one point in a game. He probably had his best game of the season in Thursday’s triumph at Edmonton, scoring a goal and assisting on two others. The Blues outscored the Oilers 2-0 and had twice as many shots on goal as the home team with Kyrou on the ice at 5v5. Kyrou made the play of the game by working hard behind the net, snatching the puck from an Oiler, and setting up Tarasenko’s winner. We need to see more of this on a consistent basis.

JUSTIN FAULK, TOREY KRUG. WHAT’S GOING ON? Last season they formed one of the NHL’s top defensive pairings, as evidenced by the Blues outscoring opponents 48-23 with the tandem on ice at 5-on-5. That’s a fantastic goal share of 67.61 percent, and it ranked third-best in the league among 32 defensemen duos that clocked at least 650 minutes at 5v5. The only two pairings that had a more dominant goal share at 5v5 were Colorado’s Cale Makar and Devon Toews (69.62%) and Washington’s Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen (69%).

Well … that’s changed for Krug and Faulk this season. In 339 minutes and 14 seconds with the pairing in action at 5-on-5, the Blues have been outscored by 10 goals (22-12) for a goal share of 35.29 percent. That ranks 21st among 23 defensive pairings that have logged at least 300 minutes this season at 5v5.

Or look at it this way: in terms of 5v5 goal share, Faulk and Krug were the third best in the NHL last season … and now they are the third-worst in goal share this season.

J. FAULK’S WEIRD SEASON: He’s a good defenseman but isn’t playing up to his usual standards this season. Maybe that has something to do with having to cover for Krug, who seems to be out of place or otherwise lost on the ice in too many instances this season. This is for sure: Faulk isn’t scoring goals.

— Last season Faulk scored 13 goals at 5-on-5, which tied him with Makar for the most by a defenseman. Pretty damn good, eh? This season Faulk has only one goal at 5v5 and got that in the second game on the schedule. That means Faulk has gone 27 consecutive games without a 5-on-5 goal. Through Thursday, 78 NHL defensemen had scored more 5v5 goals than Faulk this season.

— Last season Faulk scored 16 total goals, which ranked fifth among NHL defensemen. This season he has four total goals which is tied for 18th among defensemen. But Faulk scored three of the four goals during the first three games this season; since then he has one goal in 27 games and is minus 11.

WHICH REMINDS ME: As a group the Blues’ defensemen aren’t very good. They’re the weakest part of the team. But according to Spotrac, the Blues rank second in the NHL for most money spent on defensemen this season at $27.11 million. Only Boston ($28.92 million) has invested more than the Blues in defense spending. The St. Louis defensemen are taking up 33.3 percent of the Blues’ salary cap this season – fourth-most in the NHL.

Last season Blues defensemen scored 45 goals and were collectively a plus 93. This season? Their defensemen have scored 12 goals and are collectively minus 25. The only two “plus” defensemen are Calle Rosen (+9) and Niko Mikkola (+5.) And Rosen has scored two of the defense group’s five goals this season at 5-on-5.

Let’s go with a fancy-pants stat. Here’s where each defenseman sits in expected goal-share so far this season at 5v5. The higher the percentage, the better.

Tyler Tucker, 57.6 percent
Calle Rosen, 55.6
Colton Parayko, 47.4
Torey Krug, 47.3
Nick Leddy, 47.29
Justin Faulk, 47.26
Niko Mikkola, 44.03
Robert Bortuzzo, 42.2

JORDAN BINNINGTON’S BOUNCE BACK: The Blues are 2-0-1 in his last three starts and he’s played very well with a .928 save percentage over the three games. But he’s been much better than that .928 would indicate. In the three games at 5v5 Binnington has a .958 save percentage and has stopped 23 of 24 high-danger chances.

TRADE CANDIDATES? Looking ahead to the upcoming trading season and gauging the top 25 players that are most likely to be dealt, the Blues had two guys in the top six. Ryan O’Reilly is at No. 5 and Tarasenko is listed at No. 6.

“Not that I think anything is imminent — we’re only in December — but my sense this week after talking to a few NHL teams is that they expect the Blues to listen on their pending-UFA captain in the new year,” Pierre LeBrun wrote of O’Reilly. “The Blues continue to play inconsistent hockey, and it’s not giving anyone confidence that the season will get back on track. I think the Maple Leafs have talked about O’Reilly internally. Whether that leads to showing interest with the Blues in the new year, we shall see … the Avalanche would make sense. I mean, any contender should have interest in the 2019 NHL playoff MVP.”

Eric Duhatschek wrote this of Tarasenko: “Even in the years when the Blues were a playoff contender, general manager Doug Armstrong wasn’t afraid to make a bold statement. Tarasenko’s original trade request came more than a year ago, but now that his eight-year, $60 million contract is down to its final months and he’s coming off a season in which he was healthy and played 75 games, finding a partner in need of a scoring boost should be far easier. Despite the trade request, he does have a full no-trade clause, though, and that will limit the return.”

Thanks for reading and I hope you have a wonderful weekend.

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Blue Notes: Your St. Louis Blues Are Great At Working Overtime. appeared first on Scoops.

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It’s a Ben Fred Friday here with Ben Frederickson of The Post Dispatch. This morning we dig into the MLB GM meetings in Vegas and the Cardinals in the catcher/shortstop markets. We also talk about the future of Tyler O’Neill and Jordan Walker. Ben talk abouts the big SLU sports weekend and Mizzou hoops recruiting. […]

The post Ben Fred Friday – November 11, 2022 appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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Monday night at Enterprise Center, the Blues paid tribute to the late horror filmmaker George Romero and his iconic “Night Of The Living Dead” cult movie. The Blues, starring in their own version of a zombie apocalypse, had their own fans fleeing into the streets to get away from the abhorrent scenes on the ice. […]

The post Bernie: On A Night Of The Living Dead, The Blues Go Into The Full Zombie Apocalypse In A Horrifying Loss To The Kings. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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The Blues will lug a four-game losing streak onto the ice at Enterprise Center on Monday night, hoping to halt the recent depreciation that’s consumed the benefit of their fast start to the season. After a 3-0 new beginning that left many locals panting with excitement, the NHL schedule made corrections. After a comfortable and […]

The post Bernie: From Missed Scoring Chances To Fade-Out Third Periods, The Blues Aren’t Finishing What They’ve Started. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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BLUE NOTES — The NHL has finally consented and allowed the Blues to play regular-season hockey games. Two, to be exact … the fewest by a Western Conference team. Eight teams in the West already have played either four or five games. Given their laughable amount of inactivity, I don’t know why we would expect […]

The post Bernie’s Blue Notes: Binnington, Faulk, Tarasenko, Thomas, Scoring Depth — And A Good Start To The Season. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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If you check out some of the season forecasts, it appears that the Blues lost the offseason and are in trouble because of it. They didn’t make big, splashy, buzzworthy moves that pundits crave. Where were the trades? Where were the mega millions additions through free agency? The Blues let the popular power-play shootist David […]

The post Bernie On The Blues: All Eyes On Goaltender Jordan Binnington. The Wild Child Is The Team’s Wild Card In The New Season. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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With the Blues in the middle of restructuring for next year, we talk to tax attorney Mark Milton about how each region, state and country can affect contracts, endorsements and NIL money differently. We talk too about the Dodger’s Freddie Freeman as an example of how California taxes change the look of his earnings. Which […]

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Cardinals mid-season analysis here with Ben Frederickson. His thoughts on the road-trip and hard fought win last night. He gives insight on the trade market and how pitching options are potentially dwindling due to injury. How do you know who is healthy enough to trade for? Also, a look at Madison Bumgarner and if he […]

The post Ben Fred Friday – July 8, 2022 appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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What version of the Blues will we see tonight in Game 6? I wish I knew. But this team has been flaky and frustrating and unpredictable during its second-round series against the Colorado Avalanche. The Blues lose when we think they’ll win. They win when we think they’re going down. They start fast and fade. […]

The post Bernie: Can The Blues Push The Avalanche Over The Edge, And Back to Colorado For Game 7? appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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“The Kilcoyne Conversation” with Andy Strickland. On St. Louis Blues epic Game 5 win, pressure on Lanche, who bangs the drum in Game 6, and a cameo by Chief (sort of).

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At this point, there isn’t much left to say. The Colorado Avalanche are not only the superior team in terms of talent and depth, but they have bigger hearts than the Blues, more competitive character than the Blues, more composure than the Blues, and more intelligence than the Blues. And that’s why the Avs are […]

The post Bernie: Thanks to Nazem Kadri, The Blues Have Lost Their Minds, Their Will, And Their Way. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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After Colorado tried to knock Jordan Binnington out of Game 2 on a failed crash-test run by Valeri Nichushkin, the Avs turned to their specialist in these matters, and Nazem Kadri got the job done. He didn’t miss his target, and Binnington (sprained knee) won’t play again in this series. In a frustrating and mortifying […]

The post Bernie: Jordan Binnington Is Down. Are The Blues Out? Much Will Be Revealed In Game 4. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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This time the Blues were in charge of the rodeo. They came with a disruptive forecheck, made sure to seal off the neutral zone, stayed on the puck, won the tactical match, and all but snipped the laces of the boots worn by Colorado’s speed skaters. The real, true Blues showed up for Game 2 […]

The post Bernie: Blues Coach Craig Berube, The Amazing Lineup Savant, Does It Again In Game 2 At Colorado. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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OK, we get it. The Avalanche are great. Perhaps the best team in the history of the universe, at least according to fans and media in Colorado. The Avs could skate on water – without freezing it first. This is a team that has more talent than all of the other NHL franchises combined. Wayne […]

The post Bernie: To Make It A Series, The Blues Must Win Game 2 And Slow Colorado With Doubt. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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In Game 1, the Colorado Avalanche were a Formula 1 car. The Blues were a hoopty with a clunk transmission and flat tires. The Avs were max-speed, fiber optic internet. The Blues were an old AOL dial-up connection. The Avs were Triple Crown winner Secretariat in the Belmont stakes. The Blues were Sham, the second-place […]

The post Bernie On The Blues: Binnington Was Remarkable in Game 1, But Teammates Wasted His Extraordinary Performance. appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

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The Blues should lose to Colorado because that’s what everyone is saying, and that makes it true. The flawed forecasting model used by analysts at The Athletic assessed the rosters and other factors and spit out a Colorado win probability of 85 percent in this second-round series. In the first round, The Model informed us […]

The post Bernie On The Blues: Fair Or Not, This Series Will Likely Come Down To The Performance Of Jordan Binnington appeared first on Scoops with Danny Mac.

St. Louis Blues Archives - Scoops with Danny Mac: Recent Episodes

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