The Global Gambit: Recent Episodes

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Cyprus marked the 50th anniversary of Turkey's invasion to the north of the island on July 20th 1974. Since Cyprus and the Cypriot people have remained divided by a United Nations buffer zone to prevent further conflict, including the only remaining split capital city Nicosia. Despite diplomatic efforts between Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and even the UK that controls too strategic military bases, prospects of reunification or any change remain low.

I am joined by fellow YouTuber James Ker-Lindsay, and expert of Cyprus to cover this forgotten crisis and example of how complex geopolitics can be. We debate how Greek vs Turkish Cypriots differ in their feelings over separation, how the island has involved in the past decades, the roles of Britain, Greece, and Turkey especially, and why a 'two-state solution' may be more likely than reunification.

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Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of full-scale as the President Benjamin Netanyahu seriously considers sending the IDF into Lebanon. However, Hezbollah is not Hamas, being far more powerful and the flagship proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which could threaten escalating the war across the Middle East as the Ayatollah's don't want to lose such a military and strategic asset.

This time l am joined by Ryan Bohl, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange) to discuss this latest escalation. I challenged Ryan on how likely a Israel-Hezbollah war is, who and which assets are most at risk, how Netanyahu is costing the Israeli economy, whether the US can reign in Israel or prevent full-scale conflict, and if Iran could get pulled in.

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China thinks 'its their historical right to be' the world's foremost power, and the US 'doesn't have a moment to waste' in adequately preparing or responding to the flashpoint that could bring the 21st centuries largest powers to war: War over Taiwan. We truly are in a Cold War II and its time we stop kidding ourselves.

That's according to Dmitri Alperovitch - Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, Co-Founder of Crowdstrike, and author of the new book 'World on the Brink. A prolific voice in the areas of geopolitics, grand strategy, and cybersecurity, I challenged Dmitri to explain why he thinks we're in Cold War 2.0, what a Chinese invasion would look like, how the US needs to step up, and each's shortcomings and volatiles that could worsen escalation risks even more.

Pick up Dmitri's book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096.

Watch this interview and more on the YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg

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Due to being MIA for so long - here is another episode! Normal service of the show will resume hereon-out, with 2 episodes a month. If you want more, subscribe to the YouTube.

The Russia-Ukraine War is the most documented conflict in history. One of the darkest, toughest parts is recording evidence to expose Putin's war crimes and hold this war in line to international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict). A pioneer in this is Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, head of the Center for Civil Liberties and a 2022 Nobel Laureate.

We cover the importance of the US aid package to Ukraine, Oleksandra touring America and rallying Congress for support, her work documenting Russian war crimes, why the Russia Ukraine War is threatening human rights international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict) and much more.

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Israel and Iran’s clashes over April 2024 has left the Middle East in state of permacrisis. While immediate threat of war escalation seems to have subsided, the long term geopolitical implications are unprecedented. Many consider this to be a new reality for the region and how we interpret developments.

To explain why, Bilal Saab - professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service & Dr Sanam Vakil - Director of Chatham House’s MENA programme, joined me for this extraordinarily timely conversation.

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Since Oct 7th the world has been rocked by the Israel-Hamas War. That has caused a series if escalations, including the ongoing Houthi disruptions to maritime security and global commercial shipping.

Its so severe, the US and UK have initiated airstrikes in Yemen, but has made little difference and if anything only emboldens the Houthis more and who say they wont stop until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza. However, the long-term of these events on shipping are unprecedented, and not merely about the Houthis actions, but those of the ship insurers, explains Sal Dr. Salvatore Mercogliano - Chair of the Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell University. And the ramifications really are redefining global economic processes as well as geopolitical tensions.

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South Asia - or the Indian subcontinent to others - is going through a concentrated set of shifts. Three of the main players - Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, all have major elections next year with each proposing potentially different directions - but which?

Returning guest, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Program at the Wilson Centre sat down with me to outline, the challenges and details of these 3 countries on the geopolitical landscape. And while they all share elections, the reasons for, and potential consequences from, vary significantly, in a globe already highly unpredictable.

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The United Nations Climate Change Conference - known to most as COP - and in this case, COP28, is the highest-level of international engagement and gathering to find collective solutions to the globe's greatest collective challenge.

Yet, COPs have poor reputations, with little tangible products or outcomes occurring - other than an agreement of inaction. But, as l spoke to Nazanine Moshiri - senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and attending COP28, this years began with an uplifting start - implementation of the loss and damage fund. But that's just the start, and as Nazanine made clear, there is real need to include one specific aspect: climate-conflict and security challenges.

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2023 was a big year for multinational, multi-forum events, ranging from the G20 to BRICS to the annual UN General Assembly. But of these, the concept and symbolism of BRICS is often the one that captures the minds of people, especially those who tend to have anti-Western sentiments and desire for a multipolar order.

But why this fascination, arguably infatuation for the BRICS? Is it purely about it removing the US hegemony or something else? What of the expansion consisting of 6 new members? My guest Ali Wyne, senior analyst in Global Macro at Eurasia Group, joined me for an in-depth conversation and exchange of ideas in this thoroughly enlightening yet entertaining episode.

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Since the Oct 7th, the world has been rocked by events that many have always agonised and speculated - escalation and war between Israel and Gaza, specifically Hamas. From there, we have witnessed continued intensification, with a growing fear over the possibility of a regional war.

Much of this rests on the near-inevitable ground operation the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will undertake - the severer, harsher their approach, the more it might trigger a response from others, namely Hezbollah, because of a need to protect, defend, and similar motivations to their brethren. But what could that look like? What form of operations, what broader strategic objectives? And what about the relevance of external forces, such as US input, Iranian support and more?

Guests, Bryan Cunningham - former CIA analyst, and Patrick Fox, USAF Veteran, broke down some of the details from their experiences on this highly sensitive, hugely complex matter. Indeed, this podcast isnt attempting to cover all aspects and historical context, merely provide some takes to better make sense of the situation.

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Since June 24th 2016, the UK has had its entire economy, society and political environment largely defined by a singular issue - Brexit. The word itself, before diving into anything at all, is a source of contention.

Yet, very little to many, including myself, has changed. Certainly not in terms of improvements. Merely a country that is suffering an identity crisis as much as it is political turmoil, economic stagnation and social polarisation.

However, it doesnt necessarily need to stay that way, and are there still ways to make the most of it? Can we realise 'buccaneering Britain'? Or will be remain at risk of 'boiling the frog' - both these analogies and more are outlined by Peter Foster, Public Policy Editor at the Financial Times in this episode and his new book.

Peter's Book - What Went Wrong With Brexit And What We Can Do About ItFollow for Live Shows

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In late-July 2023, the country of Niger - a critical Western ally in Africa, and against the threats of Islamic Jihadism, experienced its 7th coup since WWII. The democratically elected President Bazoum was ousted, and there have been many claiming the role of Wagner/Russia or that this is positive for greater independence, autonomy from former colonial masters, France.

But its not that clear cut, and Vanda Felbab-Brown of Brookings Institute, emphasises that while there is some support for Russia, its definitely not that high; while the hatred of ECOWAS, the regional body that could lead a military intervention to reinstate Bazoum is not as high either.

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Over 2023 there has be an intensified number of clashes and tensions occurring within an area already heightened and swamped in tension: Serbia & Kosovo. Most notably, these led to rare and unsettling clashes between Serbia communities and members of KFOR - the NATO mission stationed to help address and ideally, prevent, these very scenarios.

So what happened, and why? What about these clashes made them worse and why was NATO directly involved? Why were Western capitals critical of Kosovo over these events when they're usually defensive? How does this all impact Ukraine and Russian interests?

These themes were put to Ivana Stradner, research fellow at Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD). During this live talk, we also joined by Colonel (R) Jeffrey Fischer and former diplomatic defence official to Kosovo.

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France has always been more strategically independent relative to other European such as the UK. But Macron's trip to China while important for French and European interests, caused a stir after he commented about the need for Europe to be more autonomous. Some, like Poland, took it as a snub to the US and transatlantic relations, while many other EU nations tacitly agreed.

But which is right? What did Macron mean and where does he stand? I put these questions to Tara Varma, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institutions, Center on the United States and Europe, and French expert. Prior to that, she was senior fellow and the head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

FOLLOW Tara: https://twitter.com/tara\_varma?ref\_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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Its hard to overstate the importance of Turkey's election on May 14th. And as Gonul Tol, Founding Director of the Turkey Program at  @MiddleEastInstitute , makes clear, its more than just about policies. It is about the very identity of Turkey; and whether it remains on the path towards democracy or authoritarianism.

In this Part 1, of a mini-series, Gonul joined  @theglobalgambit  for a preview to the election, Erdogan's resilience, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu & the main opposition, and more! Stay tuned for Part 2 on foreign policy implications.

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ContextUkraine continues to fight for not merely for its sovereignty and freedom, but arguably and in the eyes of some, values of many democratic, more specifically Western, values.

While not everyone views the war as a case of David vs Goliath, with some believing it to be a typical proxy war, my guest this episode, Benjamin Tallis, certainly isn't one of them.

Indeed, Benjamin is a firm advocate for the concept and academic theory: Neo-Idealism. He believes it to be a new approach to Grand Strategy & International Relations' emerging from the Ukraine-Russo War.

To make more sense of it, l sat down with Benjamin to outline more about this exciting concept alongside his book: To Ukraine With Love.

Follow Benjamin on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bctallis.

*NOTE: This conversation was part of a broader one on Twitter Spaces, including a Q/A which last 45 mins more. To access that, and more exclusive content, consider becoming a Patreon for only $2: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit.

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Context The globe is experiencing even more instability, unpredictability and more - even more than ever, as we arguably enter a multipolar world, with alternative forms of currency, balance of power and so on.

Could the BRICS countries really create an alternative financial system to challenge or undermine the US-led order?

I put this question, and others such as the potential of cryptocurrency to Frank Giustra, co-chair of Crisis Group and founder of Fiore Group in this broad conversation.

Support the showConsidering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)
This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

So, if any of those resonate with you, consider chipping to the GG, as allows me to improve its quality and elevate the experience for you.

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💥Global Gambit has a YOUTUBE!💥If you find value you in the podcast, check out the new GG channel. You can join an ever-growing community and find YouTube-only content. I'd love to see you there!

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ContextBetween Jan 28th-Feb 4th 2023, the world and especially the US were captivated by a UAP - unidentified ariel phenomenon. Turning out to be a Chinese spy or surveillance balloon, it rose many questions, including one around US-China relations in space - known as astropolitics. Conveniently, the timely and insightful report, China and Strategic Instability in Space, was just released and l spoke with its authors:
Carla Freeman:senior expert on China at USIP & former director of SAIS's FPI.
Bruce MacDonald: expert on nuclear proliferation, military space and cyber, teaching at SAIS and lifetime member of CFR.

Read the report here: https://www.usip.org/events/china-and-strategic-instability-space. In partnership with Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute.

There were also audience questions that didn't make the final cut. You can find those available on Patreon when you sign up for as little as $2.

Support the showConsidering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)
This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

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💥Global Gambit has a YOUTUBE!💥So be sure to SUBSCRIBE for free and additional content not shared on the podcast!

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Episode OutlineMore than ever, the UN has a lot on its plate in 2023. Top of this remains Ukraine and is what largely will define its agenda according to my guest, Richard Gowan. But we also discussed others questions including:

1. Is the UN capable of doing more?
2. Is it time for the Security Council to be modernised and if so how?
3. Has Sec Gen Antonio Guterres be an effective leader?
4. Why should we remain optimistic about the UN in 2023?

There were some additional questions from the audience that didn't make the final cut. Find those available on Patreon.

Guest Profile

Richard Gowan oversees Crisis Group’s advocacy work at the United Nations, liaising with diplomats and UN officials in New York. He has also worked as a consultant for the UN Department of Political Affairs, the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on International Migration and more.

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None of this is possible without you, the listener! You enable me to continually produce and improve these episodes, by allowing me to purchase better equipment and buy monthly/annually software to streamline production.

My goal is to provide clarity and convey complex topics in more accessible formats while allowing greater engagement between listeners and speakers.

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The Global Gambit has a YouTube!

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Episode OutlineIn Jan 2023, the three leaders of North America met for the North American Summit. This year, with Ukraine, Chinese decoupling and reopening, covid-remnants, this years could be even more significant. To make sense of it l turned to Amb. Juan-Jose Gomez Camacho to cover:

1. What is NALS and why's it matter?
2. How much are current events influencing regional priorities?
3. Did the capture of El Chapo's son play in Mexico's thinking?
4. How do Canadian-Mexican relations play vis-a-vis the US?
5. What should we make of this growing 'near-shoring' or 'friend-shoring'?

We also had a few audience questions, some that dived deeper in Mexican affairs and also the Ambassador's thoughts on LATAM given Peru.

Find those available on Patreon.

Guest Profile

Amb. Juan Jose Gomez Camacho is a veteran diplomat, serving most recently as Ambassador of Mexico to Canada and 30+ years of a career! He has also served as Ambassador to Singapore, Myanmar and Brunei, as well as the EU, Luxembourg, and the United Nations as Mexico's Permanent Representative.

This talk happened in the collaboration from Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI).

Don't forget you can sign up to my Substack too where l share my reflections about my talk with my guests, including the Amb!

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None of this is possible without you, the listener! You enable me to continually produce and improve these episodes, by allowing me to purchase better equipment and buy monthly/annually software to streamline production.

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TGG has a Substack!In Dec, l started a Substack where l share reflections on interviews, produce explainers to emerging events, and write opinion pieces.

Subscribe here:https://substack.com/profile/112732172-pyotr-s-kurzin?utm_source=user-menu.

Episode OutlineIn the fall of 2022, l held a panel on the unprecedented role Open-Source-Intelligence (OSINT) has had on the Ukraine War. It is has hard to believe what the state of the conflict would be without social media communities that have emerged over time. Therefore, it is also hard to overstate how influential it has been in changing fortunes on across Ukraine. Yet, they have been surprisingly underrepresented in the media, despite, referenced by outlets, and often being quicker to provide updates than the mainstream media.

OSINT focuses on legally gathering information from free tools or resources, usually public sources about an individual or organization. In practice, that tends to mean information found on the internet, with examples being geolocation, satellite imagery or documentation. I spoke with 3 accounts on Twitter, who were some of the first to begin tracking and sharing details about developments in the Ukraine War.

Guest Profile

Spook: Began their account in November 2021 to follow the Russian build up on Ukraine's border and began posting various updates, especially concerning graphic content.

The Intel Hub: Despite already a full-time analyst, this account began focused on the war looking at imagery, footage, and materials, focusing on OSINT, aggregation and analysis.

OSINTdefender: Acted as a OSINT monitor with an emphasis on Eastern Europe and increasingly the Central Asian / Eurasian regions. Holds a background in geospatial analysis.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from this interview, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

Support the showPlease Support Global Gambit
None of this is possible without you, the listener! You enable me to continually produce and improve these episodes, by allowing me to purchase better equipment and buy monthly/annually software to streamline production.

My goal is to provide clarity and convey complex topics in more accessible formats while allowing greater engagement between listeners and speakers.

Remember to rate, subscribe and share TGG to support its further growth and spread it to people who would benefit from it.

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• Substack: https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com/

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TGG HAS A SUBSTACK!Since the last episode, Pyotr started a Substack where he shares his reflections on interviews and produces backgrounders to current or emerging events.

Subscribe here:https://substack.com/profile/112732172-pyotr-s-kurzin?utm_source=user-menu.

Episode OutlineOn Nov 28th, 2022, Pyotr met with Alex Vindman for an in-person interview at Johns Hopkins SAIS, where Vindman is a fellow. Alex and Pyotr had a wide-ranging conversation - some topics like Taiwan or US-China rivalries, are available exclusively to Patreons - but questions on this podcast episode include:

1. What is the status of democracy vs autocracy?
2. How much is the West to blame for what happened in 2022?
3. Where is the Russian airforce and why hasn't it been used?
4. What could the endgame look like and the prospect of negotiations?

This event was done in collaboration with Johns Hopkin's Foreign Policy Institute. Many thanks especially to Sophia Salazar RA for helping arrange the talk!

Guest Profile

Alex Vindman - a retired Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and former Director for European Affairs at the National Security Council. He is authoring the book: Here, Right Matters: An American Story & currently pursuing his doctorate degree at Johns Hopkins.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from Alex Vindman's interview too, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

Support the showPlease Support Global Gambit
None of this is possible without you, the listener! You enable me to continually produce and improve these episodes, by allowing me to purchase better equipment and buy monthly/annually software to streamline production.

My goal is to provide clarity and convey complex topics in more accessible formats while allowing greater engagement between listeners and speakers.

Remember to rate, subscribe and share TGG to support its further growth and spread it to people who would benefit from it.

Links

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• Substack: https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com/

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ALERT!Since the last episode, Pyotr started a Substack where he shares his reflections on interviews and provides explainers to current or emerging events.

Subscribe here: https://substack.com/profile/112732172-pyotr-s-kurzin?utm_source=user-menu.

Episode OutlineThe last weekend of November 2022 saw protests across China, largely associated with the country's zero-covid policies. Despite responses by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), protests continued, leading some to wonder how far they might go, if they could become a new Tiananmen Square, or threaten the CCP's legitimacy - especially in light of the 20th National Congress of the CCP where Xi was elected for life. Pyotr explored these themes with James Palmer, with questions involving:

1. What triggered the protests and how severe were they?
2. Is there a high probability they will continue?
3. How does this affect Xi's popularity or his decision-making?
4. Are these trends and other internal issues undermining Chinese foreign policy?
5. What could these developments mean for Taiwan?

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from James's interview too, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!
Guest Profile

James Palmer - deputy editor at Foreign Policy and writes FP’s weekly China Brief newsletter. He authored The Bloody White Baron: The Extraordinary Story of the Russian Nobleman Who Became the Last Khan of Mongolia and The Death of Mao: The Tangshan Earthquake and the Birth of the New China.

Support the showPlease Support Global Gambit
None of this is possible without you, the listener! You enable me to continually produce and improve these episodes, by allowing me to purchase better equipment and buy monthly/annually software to streamline production.

My goal is to provide clarity and convey complex topics in more accessible formats while allowing greater engagement between listeners and speakers.

Remember to rate, subscribe and share TGG to support its further growth and spread it to people who would benefit from it.

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Episode OutlineOver the autumn, the Ukraine War took a notable turn. Aside from Putin's renewed nuclear threats or Russian mobilization, the role of drones began to increase sizeably - especially on the side of the Russians. These 'kamikaze' drones are being supplied exclusively by Iran and its regime, whose sales they're leveraging in their oppression of the Iranian people - as speakers, John Spencer, Patrick Fox and Sam Bendett comment on. Questions in this episode included:

• What are the current conditions around types of drones and their use in war?
• How have the Russians been using them in Ukraine?
• What do the supply chains between Iran and Russia look like?
• Does their use fall under conventional war crimes?
• How should and could people piloting drones be prosecuted?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitterto participate in the next event!Guest Profile

Major John Spencer - an expert and advisor on urban warfare currently serving as Chair of the Urban War Studies with Madison Policy Forum, previously doing so at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

Patrick Fox - former Air Force Security Forces airman who spent time in a diverse set of roles and achieved a Bachelor's in Political Science from Tennessee State University and Master's in Security from UCL.

Sam Bendett - an Adviser with CNA Strategy, Policy, Plans and Programs Center (SP3), where he is a member of the Russia Studies Program. He is also an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Please remember to rate, subscribe, and share TGG - it really helps new, independent podcasts become discovered and grow!

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TGG has reached 20 episodes! Thank you to all who listen and support the show via methods like Patreon - without you this passion of mine would not be possible.
If you want to support the show you can become a patron at: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit and gain additional perks too!
Episode OutlineFor TGG's 20th episode and after 2 years, the Ethiopian Civil War has shown few signs of slowing down or ceasing. In 2021, it was considered the deadliest war in the world. In this conversation, Pyotr spoke with Will Davison of the International Crisis Group, at the beginning of October - before the major peace talks were successful - to reflect on the past several months and the successes or setbacks facing both sides. Questions in this episode included:

• How have the conditions changed in Tigray, as well as across other provinces in Ethiopia?
• What is the role of Eritrea in the conflict and how significant is it?
• Have the interferences from others like Turkey or UAE with drones influenced the direction of the war?
• What could be a realistic and mutually-acceptable solution for both sides?
• Could the conflict destabilize the Horn of Africa?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitterto participate in the next event!Guest Profile

Will Davison, is the International Crisis Group's Ethiopia expert. Previously he was Bloomberg’s Ethiopia correspondent from 2010 until 2017 and has also published in The Guardian, Foreign Policy, Al Jazeera, and other international media. In 2018 he founded Ethiopia Insight.

Please remember to rate, subscribe, and share TGG - it really helps new, independent podcasts become discovered and grow!

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Episode OutlineAs the Ukraine War worsens, especially since Ukraine's counteroffensive and subsequent Russian mobilization or strikes across Ukraine after the Kerch Bridge explosion, the threat of nuclear weapons has remained present throughout. Yet, Putin has still to fully prepare and so the question remains among many, on the propensity for him to use them as well as how we approach narratives around nuclear use more broadly. Alongside the scheduled, we were also joined by some surprise experts to enrich the conversation in the latter half. Questions/themes included:

• What are the current conditions around nuclear weapons and the existing treaties?
• How does Russia approach nuclear weapons and their treatment compared to the West?
• What would be the propensity for Putin to use them and how would the West/NATO respond?
• If Russia did use them, how would that influence other countries who want to pursue nuclear proliferation?
• How significant would tactical nuclear weapons be next to strategic ones/ICBMs?
• How can we improve the narrative surrounding nuclear weapons?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitter to participate in the next event!Guest Profiles

This episode had the following experts:

Dr. Alexander Bollfrass works as a Senior Researcher at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Security Studies from Princeton University and worked on nuclear issues at Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom, as well as the Stimson Center and the Arms Control Association.

Dr. Nicole Grajewski is a Stanton Nuclear Security Post-Doctoral Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A scholar of Russian foreign policy, she holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Oxford.

Dr. Stephen Herzog is senior Research at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies, as well as an Associate of Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom. He worked for the Federation of American Scientists and at the U.S. Department of Energy. Stephen holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University.

Surprise appearances were also made by:

Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS.

Pavel Podvig, a Senior Researcher in the WMD Programme at UNIDIR.

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Episode OutlineOn August 15th, 2021, the globe witnessed one of the most redefining geopolitical events in a place that in itself reshaped 21st century foreign and international policy. The fall of Kabul driven by the Taliban's rapid advances resulted in the government's collapse and the Taliban's takeover, turning back the clock on 20-years of progress, and the rights and freedoms for millions of Afghans. This special episode of TGG opens the door to reflect on how the Taliban of 2022 compare to that of 90s. Questions/themes covered include:

• Since the takeover, and as international attention has shifted elsewhere, how have conditions in Afghanistan changed?
• What has the return of the Taliban meant for civil society, particularly women?
• Who, if anyone, has recognised the Taliban or given them legitimacy as a proper government?
• If most countries, particularly the West, aren't willing to deal with the Taliban, what and how should humanitarian support be provided to reduce the worsening crises?
• What threat has Islamic State and its regional branch, ISK posed?
• Should there be a attempt to establish a government comprising both Taliban and non-Taliban representatives to allow Afghanistan to re-enter the international system?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitter to participate in the next event!Guest Profiles

This special episode how an all-star line-up of experts:

Hasib Noor - a specialist in Sirah and Islamic history, Hasib studied at Islamic University of Madinah. He is the founder of director of the Legacy Institute and Prophetic Legacy.
Graeme Smith - a senior consultant at International Crisis Group (ICG), Graeme also worked in the UN Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) as a Political Affairs Officer.
Mariam Wardak - a longstanding human rights activist, Mariam has been a leading voice in raising awareness to the struggle of woman and girls in Afghanistan. Mariam was also a Senior Advisor to the NSA and Strategic Planning Adviser at the Ministry of Counter Narcotics.
Timor Sharan - a former senior analyst at ICG, Timor is a fellow at the LSE Ideas foreign policy think tank and Founder and Director of the Afghanistan Policy Lab.

Please remember to rate, subscribe, and share TGG - it really helps new, independent podcasts become discovered and grow!

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Episode OutlineThe rapid and unexpected counteroffensive by Ukraine’s forces have redefined the shape of the war, with mass graves since being found around Izyum, but also, the scrambling of Putin to mobilise 100,000s of troops, Russians fleeing this draft, and the not so subtle threat of nuclear weapons. To unpack these developments, TGG heard directly from a member of Ukraine’s parliament, with questions including:

• As the war has evolved, how have the Ukrainian parliament responsibilities changed?
• To what extent have the US, UK or other intel played a decisive role in helping Ukraine with its defence such as by striking the Moskva?
• Was the Kherson front a front for the Kharkiv counteroffensive? How much has it helped reinvigorate the Ukrainian morale?
• What role has civil society and social media played in directing the military responses?
• How should the post-war reconstruction being undertaken? How will Russia be ensured to play reparations while Putin remains in power?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitter to participate in the next event!Guest Profile

This episode saw Pyotr joined by Lesia Vasylenko, Ukraine MP of the Voice/Holos Party in the 9th Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada. Lesia is also a member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, President of the Inter-Parliamentary Unions Bureau of Women’s Parliamentarians, and founder of the Legal Hundred, a human rights NGO. During the discussion, Lesia based in Kyiv, mentions that air raid sirens are going on around her, illustrating the very real threat she faces daily, alongside so many Ukrainians from the Russian forces.

And please remember to rate, subscribe, and share TGG - it really helps new, independent podcasts become discovered and grow!

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Episode OutlineWith the war in Ukraine seemingly set to continue for the next several weeks at least, the impact on the humanitarian conditions will persist too, especially as the weather begins to worsen. Within all the chaos, humanitarian organizations, charities, and NGOs have been central actors in trying to support the refugees, asylum seekers and IDPs, in neighboring states like Poland. Of these, the ICRC has been a leading group as special guest Sebastian Stachowski, and returning expert, Professor Steven Schrage explains. Questions covered include:

• How have the conditions changed as the war progressed?
• What has been the response of not only the Ukrainians entering Poland but the local populations receiving them and their willingness to accept them?
• How has the reputation of some agencies been affected, in light of actions by some like the Red Cross or Amnesty?
• Is too much pressure or expectation put on NGOs, without substantial support from bigger donors like the UN or EU?
• Why hasn't there been better coordination between NGOs or relevant stakeholders and what lessons might we take to better respond in future crises or conflicts?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitter to participate in the next event!

Episode 16 sees your host Pyotr rejoined by Professor Steven Schrage - of the John's Hopkins SAIS's FPI and former Deputy Assistant Sec of State, and special guest Sebastian Stachowski, a senior officer in the Polish branch of the ICRC, to discuss the evolving humanitarian crisis and responses more broadly from within Poland. Recorded in the Ukraine Sitrep Room - the 24/7 longest and largest audio room in history, the guests then took a string of questions from the live audience on Clubhouse.

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Episode OutlineRamifications from the Ukraine War are being felt globally. Not merely by intensifying the potential for conflict in other regions, but also by undermining peace and mediation efforts. This is the case with the Iran Nuclear Deal, or JCPOA, which has been at risk and remains controversial to many, including the Iran Expert and JCPOA-sceptic, Jason Brodsky. Questions covered this time include:

• Since the Ukraine War began, how have sentiments changed around the feasibility and desire for a renewed deal?
• Is there a genuine appetite for the Iranian Deal or have they been hoping to squeeze the US and others for concessions?
• How should we assess the Russian role and positioning in negotiations given their activities and interests elsewhere?
• Were efforts to renew any deal futile, what would be the best alternative - a new deal or a new sanctions program?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitter to participate in the next event!

For this episode, your host Pyotr interviews Jason Brodsky, Policy Director of United Against Nuclear Iran, or UANI, since 2016. Previously, he was Research Associate and Advisor to Aaron David Miller at the Wilson Center & Senior Middle East Analyst at Iran International. Recorded on Twitter Spaces, Jason then takes questions from the live audience who challenge him on some of his points and perspectives raised during his conversation with Pyotr.

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Episode OutlineThe parallels between Taiwan & Ukraine have and are continually being made, despite the seemingly obvious differences, largely because of their symbolism in the fight for democracy vs autocracy. And one person, who's devoted a particular amount of focus to the themes of liberalism, democracy, and governance is Francis Fukuyama. Questions covered this time include:

• How does one compare or apply the theories of liberalism and realism in the current geopolitical climate?
• To what extent should we be concerned by the growing disassociation between liberalism and democracy?
• What role, if any, does the nation-state have in influencing the issue and unpredictabilities surrounding Taiwan?
• How much does the West balance supporting Ukraine to uphold democracy vs alienating or compromising domestic unity and exacerbating polarization/isolationism?
• Should there be a Southeast Asian NATO (re)created like the previous SEATO?
• What should the USA's prevailing grand strategy be in this new multipolarity?

Like the conversation? Become a patron on Patreon. Want to participate next time - follow Pyotr on Twitter for the next event!

For this episode, your host Pyotr interviews a world-renowned figure in the form of Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History & the Last Man, but moreover, a political juggernaut who has influenced the discipline, foreign policy, and approaches to areas like international relations, geopolitics, or democratization. Professor Fukuyama is Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and former Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of IPE at the Johns Hopkins University SAIS.

His latest book, Liberalism & its Discontent released in May 2022. He also has a blog, Frankly Fukuyama, on American Purpose.

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Episode OutlineThe Russian Wagner Group is an infamous private military contractor (PMC) operating in the Ukraine War. However, little is known of them, and so we should look to learn more by looking at their activities elsewhere, including where they first came to light, Libya:

• Why is the Wagner Group increasingly active in Ukraine and what could their objectives be?
• Should we expect the Wagner Group to take a leading role in trying to improve Russian fortunes on the eastern front?
• Is there an overlap or similarity in its behavior between Libya and Ukraine?
• How instrumental have they been in controlling or influencing the direction of food supplies?

Do you enjoy the conversations? Consider becoming a patron on Patreonto support TGG. Want to participate more - follow Pyotr on Twitter to know of the next event!

This time, Pyotr is joined by Professor Hafed Al Ghwell, the latest senior fellow of Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) to tackle these questions and more. Hafed is also a Senior Advisor at Maxwell Stamp, an international economic consultancy firm, where he specializes in the Middle East and North Africa political economy issues. He is also a Senior Advisor with Oxford Analytica, the global risk consultancy.

As usual, the first 40 mins see an interview-styled discussion, followed by a 15 mins Q/A with audience members who were listening live to the conversation, this time recorded on Twitter Spaces. If you want to join next time, be sure to follow Pyotr at @pkurzin to when future events are taking place!

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Episode OutlineThe Russian-Ukraine has exacerbated the already

• What does the Ukraine-Russia grain deal mean for global food supplies and the crisis?
• Should we expect this to lead to the potential for a broader ceasefire or peace deal being made?
• How does the food crisis, especially in the Middle East, be directly or indirectly affected by the war?
• How has the deal and the war more widely, influenced the perception/relevancy of the UN?
• How does climate risk influence food insecurities? What about the role of women specifically?

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In this episode, Pyotr attempts to put aside his wonderment as he puts the questions above and more to Sir Mark Lowcock, the former UN UnderSecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator & Head of OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). With more than 30 years of humanitarian and development experience, Sir Mark was also Permanent Secretary for the Department for International Development (DFID)leading the UK's humanitarian response to conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Syria alongside natural disasters.

Sir Mark's book: Relief Chief: A Manifesto for Saving Lives in Dire Times is available for purchase now!

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Episode OutlineThe role of Turkey in the 2022 Ukraine War is one that has many observers and pundits guessing:

• What does Turkey seek to gain from supporting Ukraine but also engaging Russia?
• Why did Erdogan threaten to block Swedish/Finnish NATO ascension?
• How genuine are its attempts to broker peace between the two sides?
• How integral is Erdogan's personal ambition to Turkey's current behavior?
• How might Turkey exploit Russia's waning influence in overlapping areas/regions and exert its power?

Enjoy the conversation? Consider becoming a patron on Patreon. Don't want to miss out on participating - follow Pyotr to know of the next event!

These questions are raised by Pyotr, as he is joined by Turkish expert, expatriate, and friend, Emre Uslu - a journalist, academic, and activist. Indeed, Emre's expansive knowledge and vocal criticism of Turkish internal affairs, Kurdish autonomy, and its foreign policy have resulted in Emre being designated in the blue category of the "most wanted terrorist list" published by the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Turkey since 28 October 2015.

This episode is special too as it is the inaugural recorded on Twitter Spaces, involving new and diverse contributors. That said, the format remains the same, with a 45 min discussion between Pyotr & Emre, before there a few audiences questions to challenge Emre, this time concerning a post-Erdogan Turkey, the removal of its NATO membership, and how Turkey's ambitions in MENA may change depending on the direction of the Ukraine War.

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ContextFriday, July 8th, 2022 saw the inconceivable and tragic assassination of Shinzo Abe, former Japanese Prime Minister, by Tetsuya Yamagami. Abe came to be known for many things, including 'Abenomics' - his form of economic policy, but equally, his terming of the 'Indo-Pacific' - something that has become a cornerstone of US foreign policy. This abhorrent event will be felt worldwide, but nowhere more than to Abe's family, to which TGG sends its condolences.

Episode Outline

• Who shot former Prime Minister Abe & what were their motivations?
• How much do other global events involving firearms have any role in Abe's assassination?
• What is Abe like as an individual and what were his most notable achievements?
• How will South Korean-Japanese relations change without Abe's input?
• What does the loss of Abe mean for Russia-Japan peace talks over the Kuril Islands?

These questions and more are tackled as Pyotr interviews Eleanor Shiori Hughes, an MA candidate at Georgetown University and an expert on East Asia. Notably, however, is that in March 2022, Eleanor co-wrote an article on Abe's legacy surrounding Taiwan for the Hudson Institute, which involved interviewing the man himself, giving her some of the most recent exposure to Abe of anyone.

This episode, brought via Clubhouse consisted of 40 mins of Pyotr & Eleanor discussing these events, before audience participant Giacomo Behar, then joined to share thoughts and ask Eleanor her perspectives on recent government elections. As always you can join in future talks by listening in real-time.

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Episode Details
* What does the Ukraine War mean for relationships across the European continent? * Has it been the trigger for the EU to establish its own army? * How much has the war altered opinions towards the role or presence of nuclear weaponry? * Why has the Ukrainian's use of information warfare been so much more effective than Russia's in diplomacy?

These questions are tackled in this installment of TGG, as Pyotr interviews Professor Jeffery Pryce, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute (FPI), at Johns Hopkins SAIS. Alongside, FPI, Professor Pryce is also counsel and vice-chair of the international dispute resolution practice at Steptoe & Johnson LLP and adjunct Professor of International Law at Georgetown University. He has also held roles in the Supreme Court and US Department of Defence.

The first 45-50 mins consist of Pyotr and Professor Pryce exchanging thoughts on multiple issues surrounding European, international and nuclear security. This is followed by 30 mins of live audience Q/A covering issues including the unique positioning of India in nuclear security, where Putin could be after the war ends, and how well the transatlantic alliances will hold as the war continues.

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Episode Details

• What repercussions does Russia's invasion of Ukraine mean for the Middle East?
• How did different countries in the region react?
• Will there be a regional destabilization due to intensifying food insecurity in multiple states?
• Which countries, if any, will be able to help offset the growing energy crisis?

These questions and more are explored, as Pyotr interviews Randa Slim, a Lebanese-American expert on the Middle East. Director of the Track II Dialogues initiative at MEI, Randa specializes on Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. She has also been a senior program advisor at the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, guest scholar at the US Institute for Peace (USIP), and appeared in multiple outlets including NYT, Al Jazeera or Reuters.

Episode 8 has two halves, with the first 45 mins consisting of a conversation between Pyotr & Randa, followed by 20 mins of audience Q/A on areas broadening to the Track II Dialogue & restoration of West-Gulf relations. This episode is unique since it was recorded in the Ukraine Sitrep Room - a live-streaming audio space, that had been running 24/7 since the Ukraine War began on February 24th, surpassing 1 million unique listeners on April 20th, 2022.

Links:

• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
• Pyotrs Twitter: https://twitter.com/pkurzin?lang=en
• TGG Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit
• The Sitrep Room: https://www.clubhouse.com/room/xeLZAGwY

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• How has morale and perception of the war changed among Ukrainians over time?
• Is there a notable difference between western and eastern Ukraine and Russia's influence?
• Why and how does Russia approach warfare so differently to western-orientated countries?
• How does the Ukraine War compare to other theatres of war?

Host Pyotr tackles these questions and more with the help of field/wartime correspondent and veteran, Chuck Holton, on the ground from Romania, and who has been traversing Ukraine - even before the Feb 24th invasion, to see the impacts of the war first-hand. Chuck served in the 75th Ranger Regiment, including being deployed to Panama for Operation Just Cause. He is a published author of A More Elite Soldierand also been a cameraman for LtCol Oliver North.

This episode is split into two segments. The first 35 mins sees Pyotr interview Chuck followed by 25 minutes of audience Q/A. The discussion was recorded in the Ukraine Sitrep Room - a live-streaming audio space, that has been running 24/7 since the Ukraine War began and surpassing 1 million unique listeners on April 20th, 2022.

Links:

• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
• Pyotr's Twitter: https://twitter.com/pkurzin?lang=en
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit
• The Sitrep Room: https://www.clubhouse.com/room/xeLZAGwY

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• Why did V-Day, May 9th in Moscow not result in any major strategical changes?
• Is the Ukraine War actually more of or increasingly becoming a proxy conflict?
• Will the US reach a limit in its willingness to support or fund the Ukrainian resistance?
• Do the events over Ukraine reflect a reshaping of the international order and shift in great power politics?

Pyotr is rejoined by cohost, Tao Tan, as they engage Gideon Rose to tackle these questions and more in episode 6 of TGG. Gideon Rose, former editor and managing editor of Foreign Affairs (FA), between 2010-21 and 2000-10 respectively, has written several articles for FA and authored the book, How Wars End. He is also the Mary and David Boies distinguished fellow in U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This episode is split into two segments. The first 60 mins sees Pyotr & Tao rotate interviewing Gideon on various topics, followed by 25 minutes of audience Q/A. The discussion was recorded in the Ukraine Sitrep Room - a live-streaming audio space, that has been running 24/7 since the Ukraine War began on February 24th and surpassing 1 million unique listeners on April 20th, 2022.

Links:

• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
• Pyotrs Twitter: https://twitter.com/pkurzin?lang=en
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit
• The Sitrep Room: https://www.clubhouse.com/room/xeLZAGwY

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• What is India's position on the Ukraine War, including on Russia particularly?
• Why has it remained so neutral and unwilling to take a clear stance?
• How does India see its relations with China, Russia, or the USA?
• What is the role and relevance of Modi as a leader?

Episode 5 sees these questions and more tackled as your host, Pyotr interviews Professor Daniel Markey on India and covers the details of the new report, Enhancing Strategic Stability in Southern Asia.Professor Markey is a senior advisor on South Asia at the United States Institute of Peace and a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute. He also has two decades of academic, think tank, and government experience focused on international relations and U.S. policy in Asia.

The episode is split into two segments with the first 45 mins seeing Pyotr & Professor Markey discuss the questions above, including India's diplomatic posturing in the UN. The second 35 mins involve a live audience Q/A in the Sitrep Room on Clubhouse. Topics include India's cybersecurity interests and the disconnect between the Indian people and the government over its response to the Ukraine War.

Links:
USIP Project Group: https://www.usip.org/programs/senior-study-group-strategic-stability-southern-asia
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit
The Sitrep Room: https://www.clubhouse.com/room/xeLZAGwY

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• How has Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshaped geopolitics in Europe?
• What does it mean for NATO?
• What about the applications of Sweden & Finland?
• Will Ukraine ever join the EU or NATO too?

These questions are just a sample of what is covered in the latest edition of The Global Gambit. This time, your host, Pyotr, interviews Professor Dan Hamilton - a fellow of Johns Hopkins SAIS, Director of the Global Europe Program of the Wilson Centre, US deputy assistant secretary of State for European Affairs, and even having time to consultant for RAND or Microsoft. Professor Hamilton also founded the Centre for Transatlantic Relations.

You can listen to this podcast in two segments. The first 45 mins involve Pyotr and Professor Hamilton covering the questions above followed by a 30 min session of audience Q/A splitting the podcast into two segments. It was recorded in the Ukraine Sitrep Room on Clubhouse - a live streaming audio space that has been running 24/7 since the Ukraine War began on Feb 24th and has had tangible impacts on the ground.

Links:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit

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• Has Russia's invasion of Ukraine meant an end to Iranian negotiations?
• What is the impact on Iran-Russian relations?
• How will Iran's interest in the Caucasus change?
• Will it deepen relations between Russia, China, and Iran?

These questions and more are addressed in this episode of TGG, as your host, Pyotr interviews Barbara Salvin, Director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council (AC). Alongside being a non-resident senior fellow at AC Barbara served as an editor for the NYT Week in Review & senior diplomatic reporter for USA TODAY. She has visited Iran 9 times and wrote a book titled Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US, & the Twisted Path to Confrontation.

The first 25 mins see Pyotr and Professor Slavin converse over the questions above with the last 15 mins involving an audience Q/A from the live-streaming audio space - Ukraine Sitrep Room on Clubhouse and that has been running 24/7 since Feb 24th.
Links:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
Pyotr's Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin
TGG Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit

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• Will the events in Ukraine result in a new Cold War between the West and an intensified Russo-Sino Axis?
• Could China offset the sanctions imposed upon Russia?
• Will Russia become a vassal state to China?
• What is the prospect of Russia using cryptocurrencies to bypass the financial constraints against it?

These questions and more are addressed in this episode of The Global Gambit, as your host, Pyotr, interviews Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the international political economy fellow of the esteemed Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), focusing on global financial markets, development finance and emerging markets (EMEs) and obtaining her Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins SAIS, including teaching Pyotr in one semester. Zoe released her first major analysis on BRIC de-dollarisation in Feb 2022.

Pyotr is joined by co-host Tao Tan, in the first half, where Tao challenges Zoe on areas concerning China's economic statecraft, SWIFT, or a Russia-China bloc, before Pyotr expands into the impact of Russia's invasion on the Kuril Islands, a potential Taiwan campaign and more. In the second half, the audience raises questions covering how China's BRI may be affected, as well as the possibility of vassalisation of Russia and Balkanisation of its trade or tech industries.

Links:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
Pyotr's Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin
TGG Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit
The Sitrep Room: https://www.clubhouse.com/room/xeLZAGwY

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• What has the humanitarian situation been like for Ukrainian people fleeing Russia's invasion?
• How has the response been and how can it be improved?
• How much risk is there to refugees from people trafficking and smuggling?
• Has there been a response from the UN and should it be making more effort to lead or coordinate?

In this first episode, these questions and more are discussed by host Pyotr, as he interviews Professor Steven Schrage on the ground at the Polish-Ukraine border. Steven is a fellow at Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI), was the ex-Deputy Assistant Sec of State under Colin Powell, and Co-Chair of the G8’s Crime and Terrorism Group.

The first half of the podcast sees Professor Schrage outline details on the ground, the lack of crisis management, the media's portrayal of the border, and what must change. In the second half, Steven answers audience questions, including on the threats of refugee trafficking, inconsistent treatment of different groups, and the response of the Polish government and people towards the Ukraine people.

Links:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
Pyotr's Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin
TGG Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit
The Sitrep Room: https://www.clubhouse.com/room/xeLZAGwY

Support the show