Bank of Singapore: Recent Episodes

Bank of Singapore

Welcome to Bank of Singapore, your go-to investment guide for navigating the latest global developments, megatrends, evolving macroeconomic landscapes and financial markets.

In our latest episode of Bank of Singapore Unplugged, our specialists deep-dive into the outlook ahead for China.

After a challenging past few years, global investors now appear to be revisiting risk assets in China. The most commonly cited reasons behind this renewed interest include more concrete and concerted policy action, potential bottoming in earnings revisions and attractive valuations. However, are these going to be enough for us to see a sustained recovery in China and how should investors be positioned?

What makes this rally in Chinese equities different from the failed rebounds over the past two years? Also, what are some of the key trends and events which investors should be paying attention to for the second half of 2024?

Tune in to our latest episode featuring:

Adrian Lim, Investment Strategy Analyst
Chu Peng, Equity Research Analyst
Moderated by Joseph Ng, Investment Strategist

In our latest episode, we take a closer look at China’s property sector, and how recent policy changes have brought about renewed optimism amongst investors.

Notably, the biggest highlight, was the provision of up to CNY500b of loans to local governments for the purchase of unsold completed properties to be converted into affordable housing. 60% of this will be funded by a low cost 1-year PBoC relending facility which is extendable 4 times.

Although the scale of the facility and the absence of central government involvement have underwhelmed the market’s earlier expectations of CNY1 trillion, other demand-side easing measures such as the reduction of mortgage downpayment ratios to historical low levels of 15% for first homes and 25% for second homes have surprised positively.

Tune in to our latest episode with Boh Hui Ling, Senior Fixed Income Research Analyst, to find out more about how these policy developments might impact investors and the outlook ahead for China’s property sector.

At the end of last month, the JPY fell to a 34-year low at 160 against the USD before rebounding sharply. The Ministry of Finance, responsible for exchange rate policy in Japan, appears to have instructed the Bank of Japan to sell greenbacks from its USD1 trillion of FX reserves on April 29 and again on May 2 to stop the JPY weakening further.

Though officials have not confirmed yet whether Tokyo did act to defend the JPY, the consensus amongst investors, analysts and financial journalists, claims intervention to support the currency will be futile.

However, Bank of Singapore’s Chief Economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, disagrees with this consensus, believing that Tokyo’s actions may be an important turning point for the JPY.

Tune in to our latest episode to find out more about the outlook ahead.

In our latest episode of Bank of Singapore Unplugged, our specialists deep-dive into the outlook for sustainability and corporate governance in Asia.

Lately, governments across the region are introducing more incentives to get companies across various industries “sustainability-ready”. Investors are becoming increasingly focused on sustainability, not just for altruistic reasons, but also because of its importance to resilience of long-term portfolios. Good corporate governance has also been in the limelight more recently, which we believe can be important in helping certain companies close their valuation discount gap to peers.

What are the latest developments for ESG, and how should investors position themselves to best capture the opportunities out there?

Tune in to our latest episode featuring:

Ada Lim, Equity Research Analyst
Donavan Tan, Equity Research Analyst
Moderated by Joseph Ng, Investment Strategist

In the ever-evolving landscape of global markets, UK equities often find themselves in the shadows of their counterparts. However recent signs show that the UK may at last be at a major turning point, after a dismal decade of political disorder, economic instability, and lengthy market underperformance. The bear case for UK assets is well known, but there are reasons to believe that the UK’s economic cycle is turning up now.

Tune in to our latest episode with Low Pei Han, Head of Equity Research at Bank of Singapore, to find out more about the outlook ahead.

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) FOMC meeting in March conveyed important dovish signals which will continue to set off powerful reflationary tailwinds for risk assets.

Despite risks of near-term volatility, we believe the broader tailwinds behind the market rally remain intact. Bank of Singapore remains overall overweight in equities, and we expect the maturing rally to broaden out from the “Magnificent Seven” into the rest of tech and other sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples and utilities. We also anticipate undervalued markets and mid-small caps to benefit from the inflection point in interest rates.

Tune in to our latest episode with our Chief Investment Strategist, Eli Lee, to find out more about the outlook ahead.

In our latest episode of Bank of Singapore Unplugged, our specialists deep-dive into the outlook for developed market banks.

The woes in commercial real estate, especially in the US are well documented, however, concerns are now spreading to lenders of some distressed assets, putting global financial companies in the spotlight.

More recently, one of the banks in the US reported a larger-than-expected allowance for loan losses arising primarily from its material commercial real estate exposure, and this has made investors somewhat nervous about banks again.

Is this likely to be a structural concern for global banks? Additionally, with the street now expecting interest rates to fall especially in the second half of the year, what does this mean for the outlook of the financial sector?
Tune in to our latest episode featuring:

Aleen Lee, Fixed Income Research Analyst
Andy Wong, Equity Research Analyst
Moderated by Joseph Ng, Investment Strategist

Japan’s stock market is off to a roaring start this year, up almost 20% ytd, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 index just shy of the 40,000 level last week.

Japan has been breaching new 34-year highs over the past 12 months, thanks to a combination of positive macro and micro factors.

For investors who are “Big in Japan”, the question would be, what’s next for this buoyant market when Spring comes?

Tune in to our latest episode with Global CIO, Jean Chia, to find out more about the outlook ahead.

The world is in a global water crisis, where more regions are facing the reality of a parched future. Growing freshwater demand is expected to exceed supply by 40% by the end of this decade, which will have wide-ranging implications across economic growth, geopolitics, and human health.

A rising tide does not lift all boats, and water scarcity is a very real threat that could impact portfolio performance in the long run.

What are some opportunities for investors to quench the global thirst? What are some trade-offs that ESG-focused investors should be mindful of as they harness the power of water sustainability?

Tune in to our latest episode with Ada Lim, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of Singapore, to find out more.

In this episode, we hear from our Global Chief Investment Officer Jean Chia, Chief Economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin and Chief Investment Strategist, Eli Lee, as they share our investment strategy for 2024, including the outlook for the global economies ahead, and what the future has in store as structural trends unfold.

2024 will be one of the most intense election years in modern history, with national elections to be held in more than 40 countries, representing just under half of the world’s GDP and population.

How will an uncertain US Presidential election affect global markets? Will we see a further continuation of deglobalisation and populism trends in 2024? What are the risks and opportunities for Asian and global investors given inevitable geopolitical uncertainties and shifting multipolar alignments of countries?

Our panelists, Jenny Lee, Managing Partner, GGV Capital, and Board Member, Temasek Holdings and SATS Ltd, Steven Okun, Founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, and Senior Advisor to McLarty Associates and Global Private Capital Association, along with Bank of Singapore’s Chief Investment Strategist,
Eli Lee, share their insights on the key implications of geopolitics for investors in the year ahead.

Will quantum computers really transform our world, cure cancer, and solve the climate crisis? Globally renowned theoretical physicist, New York Times bestselling author, futurist and populariser of science, Dr Michio Kaku thinks so. For our closing keynote segment, Dr Kaku gives us a glimpse into the future of technology-driven progress.

His latest book, Quantum Supremacy: How The Quantum Computer Revolution Will Change Everything, offers an exhilarating tour of humanity’s next great technological achievement — quantum computing — which may eventually illuminate the deepest mysteries of science and solve some of humanity’s biggest problems, like global warming, world hunger, and incurable disease.

Dr Kaku predicts that quantum computing will push the limits of human knowledge — new science, new engineering — all leading to processors that compute using the very same atomic forces that created the universe.

In our latest episode of Bank of Singapore Unplugged, our specialists deep-dive into the latest outlook for China, with the country crossing its 1-year anniversary since the scrapping of the zero-Covid policy.

Whilst there had been significant enthusiasm in China’s reopening, especially at the end of 2022 and start of 2023, this has all petered out quite quickly since. Woes in the property sector, low levels of consumer confidence and subdued financial markets are some of the challenges now confronting policymakers.

With all that’s going on, should investors cast their sights elsewhere? Or are there still opportunities that are worth positioning for?

Tune in to our latest episode featuring:

Boh Hui Ling, Senior Research Analyst, Fixed Income Research Team
Chu Peng, Analyst, Equity Research Team
Moderated by Joseph Ng, Investment Strategist

Looking ahead into 2024, how should investors think about alternatives investments against a backdrop of still elevated financing costs, slowing growth and the ‘there are real alternatives’ aka TARA regime? Are private markets a compelling option at this point of the cycle and for those with a long-term investment horizon in mind?

In this episode of Conversations on Alternatives, join our investment strategist, Neo Bee Leng, as she speaks to Ian Loke, our private markets and alternatives product specialist, to discuss investment strategies for positioning allocations to alternatives.

The 2020s are proving to be a disorderly decade for investors. Frequent shocks are shortening fund managers’ horizons. Investors have spent the last few years dealing with the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a violent attempt to overturn America’s elections, and now, war in the Middle East. But the crises are also giving rise to new longer-term trends, benefiting investors with longer-term horizons.

Tune in to our latest podcast with Bank of Singapore’s Chief Economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, as he shares his perspectives on the global outlook and opportunities for investors on the horizon.

Historically, most markets have often closed the final quarter of the year with good gains. This trend has been observed since the past two decades for the Straits Times Index, the Hang Seng Index and the S&P 500. Will this trend play out in the fourth quarter of 2023? Can investors expect a strong rally to end this challenging year on a positive note?

Tune in to our latest podcast with Bank of Singapore’s senior Singapore investment strategist, Carmen Lee, as she shares more about the market outlook and opportunities on the horizon.

In recent months, investors have been witnessing a surge in oil prices. Brent crude has crossed 97 dollars per barrel in late September, reaching a new year to date high, before easing closer to 90 dollars per barrel more recently.

Geopolitics, lower inventory levels and demand for petroleum distillates, such as diesel and jet fuel all seem to be creating a favouble backdrop for near term oil strength.

However, are elevated oil prices likely to last? How does this also impact some of the Middle Eastern sovereigns that we track quite closely?

In our latest episode of Bank of Singapore Unplugged, join our specialists as they unpack the reasons behind the surge in oil prices and the potential impact on the global outlook ahead.

Featuring:

Sim Moh Siong, Currency & Commodities Strategist
David Makoni, Senior Analyst, Fixed Income Research Team
Moderated by Joseph Ng, Investment Strategist

Private credit is expected to grow and become a bigger part of the debt capital market, particularly in the US.

Post 2021, the attractive yields and its floating rates nature have attracted many investors to increase their allocation to private credit. Structurally, fund managers and investors are looking at this sector to continue to gain market share in the overall debt capital market.

Tune in to our latest podcast with investment strategist, Neo Bee Leng, as she reviews the fundamentals of this asset, focusing on the features of capital preservation strategies and the potential risks that investors might expect.

In this episode, Peggy Liu, Chairperson of the Joint US-China Collaboration on Clean Energy, shares her insights on green tech developments, as well as her outlook on future trends and potential impacts in achieving environmental sustainability.

[About the speaker]

Peggy Liu is an internationally recognised expert on China’s energy landscape and a Hillary Laureate. The organisation she chairs, JUCCCE, has been credited for China’s leap into clean energy and is well known for its effectiveness in implementing system changing programs and fostering collaboration with China. Peggy is one of the most impactful environmentalists globally. She catalysed China’s leaps into clean energy, smart grid, ecocities, efficient lighting, green bonds, and sustainable diets. Her efforts have helped a billion and a half people leapfrog towards personal and planetary health. For this, Peggy was awarded the Hillary Step, the "Nobel" for climate change solutionists; “Hero of the Environment” by Time magazine, and a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader; CEO Magazine named her a “Top 20 Sustainability Thought Leader 2023”; The Economist called "one of the most innovative thinkers in Asia"; and press dubbed her the "Green Goddess of China".

While public market equities rebounded swiftly this year, the overall sentiment and volume of transactions in private equity remain downbeat. Investors have also been hesitant to allocate into the private equity, given lower distributions and concerns of how the higher interest rate environment could impact the asset class.

As we approach peak interest rates and slower growth, what can investors expect?

Tune in to our latest podcast with investment strategist, Neo Bee Leng, as she explores why private equity remains a valued asset class even in the era of higher hurdle rate.

Oil prices have reversed higher since June and are now at their highest levels in 2023. In our latest podcast, Eli Lee, our Head of Investment Strategy, reviews the outlook for oil, and how this could impact investors.

Tune in to find out more.

Crude oil prices have broken out to their highest levels in 2023, and could rise towards USD100/bbl in the near term before some consolidation in 2024.
Energy credit and equity sectors to remain supported although we stay watchful of impact of growth risks ahead. We maintain a neutral stance on the energy equity sector.
Rising energy prices in a subdued growth environment tend to exert stagflationary pressures; this complicates central banks’ inflation fight and, if overly extended, could pose uncertainties for markets.

Over the past few years, even the most ardent China bulls have had their conviction dented by the economic and market impact from China’s strict Covid-19 measures, geopolitical risks, domestic regulatory uncertainties that struck the real estate, internet platform, education and most recently healthcare sectors. The ailing real estate sector and credit defaults by high-profile Chinese developers eroded confidence in China credit.

Lately, investors now question if China’s post-pandemic recovery has lost momentum amid deflationary signs. The bond market has also been hit as renewed credit events linked to a large Chinese developer and a major trust company re-ignited fear of contagion from the property sector to financial markets.

Tune in to our latest podcast with Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of Singaporeas she explores the key reasons for investing in China; what’s holding investors back and what could change in the coming months?

Hospitality players posted a stellar performance in the first half of the year, as the global travel recovery remained well underway. In the second quarter however, we see that the global travel growth momentum remains positive, even though the pace of recovery has started to moderate.

A bright spot to look forward to may be the more meaningful outbound travel recovery from China on the back of supportive policy measures, which may benefit Chinese online travel agencies, European luxury brands, and consumer names within the broader Asia Pacific region.

Additionally, new trends have emerged for hospitality, as hordes of travellers have hopped onto the bandwagon of using ChatGPT and other generative AI software to plan their holidays.

What are the key trends which investors should look for in the months ahead, and what are the interesting investment opportunities in the form of emerging disruptors or companies with a first mover advantage?

Tune in to our latest podcast with Ada Lim, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of Singapore as she shares more about the outlook and future possibilities of travel.

Bank of Singapore Unplugged, a forum where our specialists will be answering tomorrow’s investment questions today.

For many years now, global investors have been focusing on US, Europe and China for opportunities, and understandably so, given the depth of these markets and attractive growth prospects across various sectors in those regions.

However, there appears to be significant attention on Japan, and this is pretty apparent when we see the returns registered by the Topix or Nikkei.

What’s getting investors excited in Japan? And is this a start of a longer-term trend, or are the recent gains just a flash in the pan?

In our latest episode of Bank of Singapore Unplugged, join our specialists as they explore the outlook for Japan and the opportunities which lie ahead.

Featuring:

Chan Wai Mei,Senior Research Analyst, Fixed Income Research Team
Adrian Yang, Research Analyst, Equity Research Team
Moderated byJoseph Ng, Investment Strategist

The recent market outlook and news flow have shown that bond yields continue to stay elevated on surprisingly resilient economic data, and as central banks remain hawkish. Meanwhile, investors are still digesting the impact of Fitch’s recent downgrade on US government’s rating.
Now that the signs of inflation are easing towards more normal levels, central banks are finding themselves with more room to pause on the rate hiking cycle. What does this mean for fixed income investors?
Tune in to our latest podcast with Aleen Lee, Fixed Income Research Analyst at Bank of Singapore, as she explores the opportunities which lie ahead for investors.

The 2H 2023 investment outlook by Bank of Singapore specialists, Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy and Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Chief Economist.

In this episode, we explore Asia’s sustainable business revolution from the perspectives of APAC business leaders, with guest experts, Tan Chin Hwee, Chief Executive Officer, Asia Pacific at Trafigura, George Aitken, Head of Asia Impact at KKR, with moderator, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore.

In this episode, we hear from Ho Kwon Ping, global entrepreneur and opening keynote speaker at Bank of Singapore's 2023 Mid Year Outlook, on his perspectives on Asia, the game changer.

Featuring:

Ho Kwon Ping, Founder & Executive Chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings, Laguna Resorts & Hotels and Thai Wah Public Company

Moderated by Yvonne Chan, Former CNA Anchor & Media Trainer

Bank of Singapore presents "Challenging Convention" - an exclusive conversation with Marc Rowan, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of Apollo Global Management, Inc., hosted by Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of Singapore.

Hear from Marc as he shares about leading one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, the fundamental changes that are reshaping markets and economies, his philosophy to investing and why everyone should “be curious, not defensive”.

About our guest speaker:

Marc Rowan

Co-Founder and CEO,
Apollo Global Management, Inc.

Marc Rowan currently serves on the boards of directors of Apollo Global Management, Inc., Athene Holding Ltd. and Athora Holding Ltd. He is also Chair of the Board of Advisors of The Wharton School and a member of the University of Pennsylvania’s Board of Trustees. In addition, he is involved in public policy and is an initial funder and contributor to the development of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan research initiative which provides analysis of public policy’s fiscal impact.

An active philanthropist and civically engaged, Marc is a founding member and Chair of Youth Renewal Fund and Vice Chair of Darca, Israel’s top educational network operating 45 schools with over 25,000 students throughout its most diverse and under-served communities. He is an Executive Committee member of the Civil Society Fellowship, a partnership of ADL and the Aspen Institute, designed to empower the next generation of community leaders and problem solvers.

Marc graduated summa cum laude from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business with a BS and an MBA in Finance.

Bank of Singapore Unplugged, a forum where our specialists will be answering tomorrow’s investment questions today.

In our first episode, our specialists explore Asia – tune in to discover more about the key themes driving Asia’s resurgence, and about Asia’s role as an innovation hub for global enterprises, and how investors can position themselves to best capture the opportunities out there.

Featuring:

Low Pei Han, Senior Research Analyst, Equity Research Team
Boh Hui Ling, Senior Research Analyst, Fixed Income Research Team
Moderated by Joseph Ng, Investment Strategist

Although real GDP growth for the region will decelerate this year, high average oil prices in 2023 should provide significant credit support to major oil producers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – reinforcing our favourable view of IG-rated sovereigns from the region.

Tune into our latest podcast with David Makoni, senior fixed income analyst at Bank of Singapore, as he summarises our mid-year (2023) outlook for GCC sovereigns.

The road to a weaker US dollar will not be smooth. Our medium-term forecast remains USD bearish, as we expect the US recession to unfold by early next year, forcing the Fed to turn dovish.

Tune in to our latest podcast with our Bank of Singapore currency and commodities strategist, Sim Moh Siong, as he shares the latest outlook for the US dollar, and what investors can expect over the next few months .

[ Transcript of podcast ]

The road to a weaker US dollar will not be smooth. Our medium-term forecasts remain USD bearish, as we expect US recession to unfold by early next year, forcing the Fed to turn dovish.

But for the time being, the USD has found temporary support on three fronts...

First, when there is an increasing probability of higher rates in US, the greenback tends to do well. Recent rise in US Treasury yields happened alongside recession calls getting push back amid resilient US data and incremental optimism on a debt ceiling deal. Markets are recognizing that the Fed may not have as much room to ease as was priced just earlier this month. A Fed pause in June remains our baseline. But what the US taught us is that pausing is hard when growth is still resilient and inflation still sticky.

Investors appear to be anticipating another 25bp hike by the July FOMC meeting. Reports suggesting that the debt ceiling drama is inching toward a compromise agreement are good news even as legislative passage is not assured. A debt ceiling resolution could benefit the greenback to the detriment of other safe havens like gold. The resolution could also bring a new form of tightening given Treasury’s need to replenish cash in the Treasury General Account via a surge in T-bill supply. The debt ceiling stand-off has left the Treasury's cash balance uncomfortably low.

Second, for the US dollar to go down, the Euro and Chinese Yuan will have to go up. It could be tough for the Euro and Chinese Yuan to go up for the time being as the soft April China data fueled concerns over China’s growth and the potential macro passthrough to European growth.

Credit issues have resurfaced in China. Stress in the property sector has returned and local governments are warning about their debt servicing burdens as fiscal revenues have dropped.

Overall, the slow-down in the US is slower than expected, while the data in both China and Europe has been disappointing. China data and US non-farm payrolls this week will send critical signals on some of the pillars for this trend. A softer PMI in China would weigh on the Chinese yuan and spill over to other currencies.

Third, artificial intelligence or AI may continue to remain a kicker.

Strong results for secular AI-linked trends could benefit the USD given that AI is mostly a US mega large cap equity theme. It is still early days but growing positive correlation between the greenback and AI proxies is worth tracking.

Big picture, we still like US dollar lower over the next 6 to 12 months. However, we stay neutral on the greenback and defensive overall in the near term.

While the property sector has seen robust performance in recent years given record high prices amid strong demand and supply constraints caused by the pandemic, we are now seeing headwinds from a higher interest rate environment.

The collapse of some banks in the US and Europe have also led to fears of contagion risks and tightening credit conditions.

Tune in to our special edition podcast with our Bank of Singapore real estate specialists, Yvonne Siew and Andy Wong, where they explore the latest outlook for US commercial real estate and what lies ahead for investors.

In our latest podcast, Eli Lee, Bank of Singapore’s Head of Investment Strategy, shares the latest outlook for the US economy and what lies ahead for investors:

X-date when US Treasury runs out of cash could potentially be in June-July 2023; earlier than expected.
Bank of Singapore’s base case is congressional brinksmanship and a last-minute agreement; risk of a US debt default is unlikely.
We could expect to see an increase in equity market volatility as investors discount the risk of a default. It may be sensible for investors seeking to hedge out near-term volatility to buy downside protection.
Gold is an important diversifier for portfolios, given its role as a safe haven and a beneficiary of a weaker US dollar.

Tune in to find out more…

Different risk assets are currently discounting different outlooks for the US economy, for the second half of 2023.

The rates market is expecting aggressive rate cuts, which point to a more dramatic slowdown in growth, while the US equity market and corporate earnings outlook seem to retain the expectations of an earnings rebound in the second half and a moderate slowdown for 2023 as a whole.

So, whose forecast is right?

Tune in to our latest podcast with Bank of Singapore’s investment strategist, Neo Bee Leng, as she shares more about the latest updates for the US economy and what’s next for investors.

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[ Podcast Transcript - Excerpt]

In the past two weeks, we received two pieces of hard data about the US economy that are important for the Federal Reserve, as they head into their deliberations for the May FOMC.

First, the US labour market added 236,000 jobs in March. This was a noticeable slowdown from the average pace of around 400,000 jobs in the first two months of 2023, but continued to represent a robust, above average level of jobcreation. Strong job creation in the healthcare and leisure sectors continue to offset the weakness in the information sector, as well as manufacturing and construction.

The momentum for wage growth remained positive as well, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to 0.2% in February.

The health of the labour market was also reflected in core inflation figures: the Fed’s preferred measure of “super-core” services inflation, which excludes housing and rental costs, continued to show steady MoM increases of 0.4%, similar to the past 6 months. Overall core inflation came in line with expectations at 5.6% YoY in March compared to 5.5% for February.

Other data we have seen over coming out recently, such as retail sales, industrial production and the Empire State manufacturing survey, showed upticks in the month-on-month trend for March. We have seen this up-down patten across many economic indicators since late 2022.

On balance, we believe that the Federal Reserve will proceed with one more 25 basis points rate hike in the May meeting and then pause. This is also based off indications that the acute banking stress in March is calming down, with a gradual steady decline in the amount of bank borrowing from the Fed.

The decision for the May FOMC itself arguably may be of a lesser concern to markets, as investors are rightly more concerned with the overall rate trajectory from this point on, after the events in March showed that the increase in rates to-date is having a very tangible impact on the US economy.

The minutes of the March FOMC meeting released last week revealed that the Fed took into account the banking stress in March and calibrated their decision accordingly. Also interesting was the fact that the staff at the Federal Reserve had updated the likelihood of a recession sometime this year as a quote “plausible alternative”.

The markets will be laser-focused on the narrative that the Fed will present post the May FOMC decision, which will continue to be highly data dependent.

Everything seems to be out of sync with historical norms. Uncertainties exist everywhere in global markets, and with the latest addition of higher oil prices, it looks like the congregation of multiple market variables all at once - high interest rates, elevated inflation, higher oil prices, banking crisis, corporate earnings cuts…

Could this be the perfect storm, and how should investors tread ahead?

While short-term volatility remains, it is imperative to look beyond some of the near-term issues and identify longer-term investment opportunities.

Singapore’s high dividend yield stocks provide consistent and at times, progressively higher annual income streams, and should form part of a longer-term diversified equity portfolio.

Tune in to our latest podcast with Bank of Singapore’s senior Singapore investment strategist, Carmen Lee, as she shares more about the opportunities on the horizon.

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[ Podcast Transcript - Excerpt]

"Everything, everywhere, all at once..." This March 2022 released absurdist-comedy-drama movie was produced at a comparatively modest budget by Hollywood’s standards, but went on to surprise the market and grossed more than USD135m worldwide.

In market terms, this is a rare gem with attractive profit margin. It truly surprised on the upside and similarly, in this very uncertain market environment, it will be tough looking for gems that will surprise on the upside consistently.

However, what is more conceivable and logical is to look for stocks with good valuation that will consistently provide a good dividend stream through the market ups and downs.

Recent Singapore corporate report cards showed that there were still glimmers of hope despite the global economic gloom as several Singapore listed companies beat the market’s reduced earnings expectations and rewarded shareholders with better dividends or one-off special dividends.

In an environment that is challenging, especially in view of rising costs, higher oil prices and the heightened possibility of slower revenues and profits, this unexpected sweetener, especially from some of the bigger capitalization companies, is a welcome move for long-term investors.

While dividend distribution is highly unpredictable and dependent on economic outlook and specific company’s performance, big-cap companies tend to be more stable and at times on an upwards sloping trajectory.

Singapore high dividend stocks offer a steady stream of annual dividends or clearly articulated annual dividend pay-out policies.

While corporate earnings growth globally could come under some pressure due to the softer outlook in 2023, this situation is slightly different in Singapore.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 248.34 in FY2022 to 303.42 in FY2023, up 21.9%, based on the latest consensus estimates from Bloomberg. This is largely explained by the composition of the Singapore market, which has a larger component of listed companies with a stable earnings stream.

Other factors include the reopening of the Chinese economy which will benefit Singapore, especially in the 2H23. Also, most Singapore companies are not highly geared, especially after the experiences from the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. We believe that the bigger capitalised or more mature companies are in a much stronger position than small-cap companies in FY2023.

While high interest rates and elevated inflation will remain in focus in 2023, investors should adopt a longer-term investment horizon and look at other growth factors beyond 2023. Weak market sentiment is an opportune time to accumulate quality names with consistent good dividend yield, especially on price weaknesses.

Over recent months, investors would have seen various news headlines about the US Treasury reaching its debt limit, and the attendant concerns for the economy and markets. As this debt limit has been reached in January, the US Treasury has now begun the usage of extraordinary measures, which most expect to only last till sometime in the second half of this year before a default occurs.

This is certainly a development that warrants much attention.

Bank of Singapore’s investment strategist, Joseph Ng, shares more about the follow-on impact to investors, should a default by the US Treasury occur.

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[Transcript - excerpt]

Many of our listeners out there would have seen various news headlines about the US Treasury reaching its debt limit, and the attendant concerns for the economy and markets. This is certainly a development that warrants much attention.

The debt limit is the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and other payments.

As this debt limit has been reached in January, the US Treasury has now begun the usage of extraordinary measures, which most expect to only last till sometime in the second half of this year before a default occurs.

Should a default by the US Treasury occur, investors should then expect downgrades by rating agencies. The follow-on impact could be as such:

First, borrowing costs for the Treasury (and by extension the taxpayer) will increase.

Second, the perceived creditworthiness of large financial institutions could be impacted, as some of these are viewed by investors to be implicitly backstopped by the federal government.

Third, foreign investors could also look to trim holdings of Treasuries. Taken to the extreme, this could also pressure the dollar, leading to inflationary pressures.

Our base case is that Congress will reach a last-minute agreement with some form of concessions made to the House Republicans in order to raise the debt ceiling. A last-minute deal will likely be the most politically expedient option for both parties. However, the obvious risk is that negotiations turn out to be more protracted than expected and go past the deadline, thereby risking a debt default. This would then leave the economy and markets in unchartered territory.

There are other theoretical alternatives that the Treasury can take, but these are all fraught with legal and practical challenges. In short, there are unlikely to be any feasible solutions, except for Congress to arrive at a compromise to raise the debt ceiling.

Over the last 5 notable debt limit episodes historically, we note that there has been some amount of variability in terms of market behaviour, with much depending on the intensity of debt limit disagreement and the overall macroeconomic backdrop. The impact of debt limit episodes on equities and volatility is generally muted outside of 2011. Across all 5 episodes, the S&P 500’s median peak-to-trough drawdown was at 4%, while VIX increased by only 7 points. While 2011 was an outlier in terms of downdraft and volatility in equities, we do not rule out the possibility that markets today could be in a similar situation as it was then.

In Fixed Income, Treasury bills maturing around the debt limit deadline typically tend to underperform. In our view, this could reflect investors’ concerns around timely redemption of such securities that are soon to mature. We also observe that the US Sovereign CDS spreads also tend to widen as debt deadlines loom.

As we approach the debt limit deadline, we believe that companies that derive a significant portion of revenue from the US government could see significant volatility. These include defense contractors, selected healthcare companies, and companies that render professional services to the US government.

This week, all eyes will be on America’s payrolls report for February due on Friday. January’s jobs report was also very strong, as data showed the US unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4%. America’s labour market thus remains very tight, fuelling wage growth and keeping inflation much higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This makes February’s payrolls data on Friday crucial.

If February’s payrolls are strong like January’s, then the employment data would signal inflation is likely to remain too high for the Fed still. If the Fed was forced to re-accelerate its pace of interest rate increases, it would have a major adverse effect on all financial markets globally.

Tune in to our latest podcast with Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Chief Economist at Bank of Singapore, to find out more.

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[Transcript]This week, all eyes will be on America’s payrolls report for February due on Friday.

In January, the monthly employment data showed the US economy had added 517,000 new jobs. This was far above forecasts for payrolls to rise by 188,000 and December’s gains of 260,000. January’s jobs report was also very strong as the data showed the US unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4%.The labour force participation rate ticked up to 62.4% and the average work week rose significantly by 0.3 hours to 34.7 hours. America’s labour market thus remains very tight, fuelling wage growth and keeping inflation much higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Other US data releases for January also showed America’s economy remains too strong for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% goal.
Consumer price index CPI inflation only dipped from 6.5% to 6.4%. Producer price inflation was also stronger than expected. And retail sales jumped by 3% alone in January.

In short, January’s US data showed the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes last year still have not curbed inflationary pressures decisively.
We therefore, last month, revised our forecast for the central bank’s outlook. We now expect the Fed to make three further 25bps rate hikes in March, May and June. We thus anticipate the fed funds interest rate reaching a peak now of 5.25-5.50% compared to its current range of 4.50-4.75%.

Financial markets have woken up to the risks of the Fed staying hawkish in the first half of 2023. The S&P 500 has trimmed its strong start to year and is now up 5% year to date, having gained as much as 10% earlier this year. Similarly, 10Y Treasury yields have jumped from 3.30% to around 4.00% now over the last few weeks.

This makes February’s payrolls data on Friday key now.

We think last month’s jobs gains will slow to 200,000, letting the Fed stick to 25bps rate hikes to reduce inflation to its 2% target. This will help Treasury yields stop rising and, with the US set for recession later this year, we keep our forecast for 10Y yields to end 2023 lower at 3.50%.

But if February’s payrolls are strong like January’s, then the employment data would signal inflationary is likely to remain too high for the Fed still.
In that case, pressure would grow for the central bank to hike by 50bps at its next meeting on March 21-22, rather than by the 25bps rise that we anticipate. If the Fed was forced to re-accelerate its pace of interest rate increases, it would have a major adverse effect on all financial markets globally. Equities, Treasuries, corporate bonds, commodities and emerging markets would all likely suffer. That’s why all eyes this week will be on Friday’s payrolls report.

Excerpt:
China’s re-opening after three years of strict Covid-19 lockdowns and isolation from the rest of the world will be one of the most important developments for investors in 2023.

For a start, China will be the only major economy with faster year-on-year (YoY) growth this year. We upgraded our 2023 GDP forecast for China to 5.2%, a rebound from last year’s 3% growth. In contrast, global growth will be 2.4%, dragged by flat US growth and negative GDP growth in the UK and Eurozone.

Inflation, the bug bear of most major economies, remains tame in China. Hence, China’s policy makers can focus on economic growth vs. last year’s focus on leadership transition and regulatory issues. In the upcoming “Two Sessions” in March, we expect pro-growth signals with supportive fiscal and industrial policies to boost growth.

Over the Chinese New Year period, activity and mobility data in China rebounded strongly with domestic tourism recovering to over 70% of pre-pandemic levels. This pent-up consumer demand - plus high savings rates - present tailwinds for a consumer and services-led recovery in China, across retail/consumer discretionary plays, tourism enablers and platform economies.

Wait, but isn’t this view already consensus and don’t stock markets already reflect this optimism? After the sharp rally of the past few months, we do expect intermittent bouts of consolidation and profit taking. Hence, for the cyclical reopening theme and 1st order beneficiaries, we would time entry for travel and hospitality plays with strong earnings recovery on market pull backs.

Overall, we believe HK/China valuations are still undemanding and positive fundamentals are a constructive set-up in 2023 as global investors seek opportunities. In particular, we favour sectors such as consumer, technology, renewables, green infrastructure and electric vehicles from a longer-term perspective. For China Tech platforms, the unbridled growth in the internet sector will continue to be met with regulatory scrutiny. Hence, we focus only on those with strong business moats, execution track records and structural business growth drivers.

The Chinese currency has clearly benefitted from the faster-than-expected reopening, but further CNY strength is likely to be moderate. The dynamics of stronger China growth resulting in higher imports, will narrow China’s trade surplus given the backdrop of soft global goods demand. Faster border reopening and the swift recovery of outbound travel is also to the detriment of the CNY.

Beyond its shores, China’s reopening is causing strong positive ripple effects across Asia and the global economy. What’s interesting for investors are the second order impact of China’s economic reopening across currencies, commodities, equities and fixed income investments across the wider EM complex.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN economies, Australia and New Zealand will all gain from stronger Chinese demand for their exports, as well as the resumption of China tourism. Major exporters to China, including Europe and Latin America will also be supported by stronger commodities demand. This will boost commodities producers from Brazil, Africa, the Middle East, Indonesia and Australia.

As China awakens, the horizon is not all rosy. Geopolitical risks continue to loom above, while global recessionary growth may dampen China’s re-opening benefits. That said, the risk aversion around investing in China is beginning to ebb with the country’s renewed focus on economic growth. Investors should seek potential opportunities to gain exposure to these trends, that have local impact and global implications within the context of their diversified portfolios.

Tune in to find out more...

Last month, the United Nations Biodiversity Conference (COP15) ended in Montreal with a landmark agreement to guide global action on nature through to 2030. Chaired by China and hosted by Canada, COP15 resulted in the adoption of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

One of the key targets of the agreement is the “30 by 30 deal”, which seeks to ensure the effective conservation and management of at least 30% of terrestrial, inland water, and coastal and marine areas by 2030. It also targets the restoration of at least 30% of degraded ecosystems. This marks the largest land and ocean conservation commitment in history, and will have major positive impacts for wildlife, for addressing climate change, and for securing the services that nature provides to people like clean water and pollination for crop.

In this episode, we hear from Low Pei Han, senior investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, as she shares the key highlights of the agreement, and the resulting implications for investors. Tune in to find out more.

Professor Kishore Mahbubani shares his perspectives for the global and Asian economies going into 2023, discussing key issues and dominant macro trends which could impact investors in the year ahead.

Speaker: Professor Kishore MahbubaniDistinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore

Geopolitical risk was a major driver of financial markets in 2022. Soaring inflation driven by conflict in Ukraine prompted major central banks including the Federal Reserve to embark on a historic string of rate hikes - at their fastest pace since the 1980s. How will geopolitics play out in 2023 and what surprises will it bring?

In this dialogue session, Professor Kishore Mahbubani and Professor David Daokui Li discuss the complexities and challenges for our world, covering key questions on US-China tensions, possible outcomes for the war in Ukraine and key risks in the year ahead.

Speakers:

Professor Kishore MahbubaniDistinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore
Professor David Daokui LiDirector, Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, Tsinghua University
Moderated by Mansoor Mohi-uddinChief Economist, Bank of Singapore

2023 will be a year of two halves. In the first phase, risk assets are likely to experience a volatile bottoming process, followed by a broad recovery in the second phase as the world moves past peak Federal Reserve hawkishness.

We also keep a watchful eye on the interest rate environment, the US dollar and China, an outlier whose growth outlook has turned incrementally positive.

As the interplay of inflation and central bank intervention continue to shape the story of economic growth for 2023, how will geopolitics, climate risk and monetary policy converge, and more importantly, how should investors position themselves for the challenges ahead?

Speakers:

Jean ChiaChief Investment Officer (CIO) & Head, Portfolio Management & Research Office (PMRO), Bank of Singapore
Eli LeeHead of Investment Strategy, Bank of Singapore
Mansoor Mohi-uddinChief Economist, Bank of Singapore

As volatility and uncertainty persist into 2023, the ability to diversify through access to alternatives investments will become increasing valuable for portfolios.

In this discussion, our expert panel of alternatives-focused, multi-asset strategists explore the art of building diversified portfolios and deploying capital into this key segment in order to generate alpha amidst these challenging investment conditions.

Speakers:

Chad HutchinsonPartner, Arctos Sports Partners, Former Pro Athlete
Tai HuiChief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Pak-Seng LaiHead of Private Wealth Distribution APAC, Blue Owl Capital
Moderated by Robert ReidGlobal Head of Alternative Investments and Managed Solutions, Bank of Singapore

In this episode, we hear from former professional athlete turned investor, Chad Hutchinson.

Chad played professionally in both American football and baseball, first as a Major League Baseball pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, before becoming a National Football League quarterback and playing for the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears. Private equity is now his third sport.

This rare two-sport standout shares his perspectives on how his professional sports experience has influenced his philosophies as an investor and helped build an incredible career in finance.

Speaker: Chad HutchinsonPartner, Arctos Sports Partners
Former Pro Athlete

This week bore witness to the biggest daily gain of the Yen against the US dollar in the 21st century.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has widened the Yield Curve Control’s (YCC) 10yr trading band from +/-25bp to +/-50bp while keeping its target at 0% and increasing Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases. This came as a shock for investors and market consensus, as many expected changes to the YCC only after BoJ Governor Kuroda leaves in April 2023.

The BoJ has largely downplayed their surprise move as a "technical" adjustment, but speculation over more BoJ policy shifts, implies potential volatility for Japanese equity and bond markets.

Bank of Singapore’s caution against using JPY as a funder is paying off, and we continue to see scope for greater downside in USDJPY to 125 by end-2023. On equities, we have advised adding Japanese financials over the course of 2022 which have delivered solid gains. We expect continued investor interest in the sector given it is positioned to benefit from potential future policy normalisation.

A small step for the BoJ, but a giant leap for the Japanese Yen!

Tune in to our latest podcast with Sim Moh Siong, Currency & Commodities strategist, and Camilia Goh, Senior Equity Research Analyst to find out more.

October’s US inflation data has raised hopes that the end is finally in sight for this year’s rapid Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Financial markets rallied strongly after October’s inflation data was released. However, the Fed remains hawkish.

In this podcast episode, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, our Chief Economist, shares the latest outlook and reviews why investors should still be cautious about the near-term outlook for risk assets.

Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Hong Kong and China equity markets have been severely punished after the 20th Party Congress, with the Hang Seng Index on last Monday alone, which went down over 6% – the sharpest single day plunge since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Caution has come back onto the radar.

In this podcast episode, Eli Lee, our Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore, shares the latest outlook on Hong Kong and China equity markets, and reviews how investors should prepare themselves in the coming weeks.

Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Historically, credit spreads have always been a good leading indicator of future market performance, and since the end of September, global credit spreads have been tightening substantially.

In Emerging Markets Credit, High Yield spreads have tightened 35 basis points and Investment Grade has come in 5 basis points. In U.S Credit the trend has been even stronger with High Yield 58 basis points tighter and Investment Grade 7 basis points tighter.

Much of the rationale for the recent spread rally is pinned on a belief that the Fed has either passed its peak tightening, or the even more optimistic belief that the Fed will pivot and turn dovish in response to recent equity market weakness.

Todd Schubert, Head of Fixed Income Research at Bank of Singapore, explores five reasons why investors should not chase the credit rally and remain cautious, particularly in the U.S High Yield sector.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Heading into the final months of the year, investors find themselves in a unique predicament:

Big levels have been breached: EURUSD is below parity, GBPUSD is below 1.10, USDJPY above 140 and USDCNY above 7
The USD is now at multi decade highs.

Given the strength of the USD, some investors are eagerly anticipating the overvalued USD to turn lower.

However, commodity and currency strategist, Sim Moh Siong cautions investors to hold for the next few months as a hawkish Fed could extend USD strength into the year-end.

Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

As we head towards the final months of the year, the market mood has turned sour. Central banks seek to quell inflation through interest rate and currency moves, but slowing growth is weighing on capital markets. The remarkable bear market rally which saw the S&P500 Index gain 17% in the two months to mid-August - has fizzled out with an 8% reversal from recent highs instead.

Caution has come back onto the radar.

In this podcast episode, Jean Chia, our Chief Investment Officer at Bank of Singapore, shares the latest global market outlook and updates on the bank’s asset allocations.

Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In this podcast episode, Sim Moh Siong, currency and commodity strategist at Bank of Singapore, explores the market outlook and shares his views on why he remains supportive of the US Dollar, despite a maturing outlook for further gains in the greenback, given a slowing US economy.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Last Friday, on 12 Aug, the US House of Representatives passed a package of laws that includes the country’s biggest ever spending plans focused on climate change.

The Inflation Reduction Act, as it is known, includes some

USD370 billion worth of climate related subsidies, tax credits and other incentives to expand renewable power and electrification, retrofit buildings to make them more energy efficient, and encourage wider adoption of electric vehicles.

Tune in to our podcast with investment strategist, Conrad Tan, to find out more about the key implications of this landmark piece of legislation.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In this episode, Animoca Brands Co-founder and Executive Chairman, Yat Siu joins us in The Hot Seat to talk about the future of innovation, technology, Web3.0 and metaverse.

The widespread adoption of digital technology started by the pandemic continues at speed today, where another phenomenon – the metaverse – is fast rewriting the rules of engagement with consumers. For entrepreneurs and technopreneurs, it is clear that succeeding in the post-pandemic era requires bold transformation.

As the world moves towards Web3.0 and the technologies that support it mature and become scalable, what does this mean for the development of blockchain systems and digital assets geared towards decentralised finance? How will this impact data ownership and the tech juggernauts that rule our online world today? How can we use this opportunity for innovation and experimentation, and what lessons can we learn as the world transitions to an increasingly digital and climate-conscious future?

Speakers:

Yat Siu is a veteran technology entrepreneur, and the co-founder and executive chairman of Animoca Brands, a global leader in blockchain and gaming with the goal to provide property rights for virtual assets.
Jamie Yeo hosts this episode.

Welcome to Bank of Singapore Infinity, a programme where we bring you exclusive insights from some of the world's most exciting entrepreneurs. In this episode, we catch up with Song-En Ho, the co-founder of WOLF Burgers.

WOLF Burgers was started in 2016 with a goal of serving quality wholesome food at an affordable price for the larger community. Since then, WOLF Burgers has expanded to five outlets in Singapore, and one restaurant in Hokkaido, Japan. The team is passionate about food and always tries to stay ahead of the curve in anticipating newer and better ways of delivering the best experience to the market.

In this exclusive interview with Bank of Singapore, Song-En shares his insights on his experience with the ultra-competitive food scene in Singapore, lessons from WOLF Burgers, the importance of client centricity, learning from failure, and pivoting with the times. Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Welcome to Bank of Singapore Infinity, a programme where we bring you exclusive insights from some of the world's most exciting entrepreneurs. In this episode, we catch up with Carol Chen, a designer, serial entrepreneur, and a true global citizen.

Carol has been making waves in the fashion industry globally. She has built 5 companies across 4 countries and her designs have a cult following, worn by some of the biggest fashion icons around the world.

In this exclusive interview with Bank of Singapore, Carol shares her insights about spotting opportunities, adapting to cultures, pivoting with the times, and most importantly, how to channel failure into the next big opportunity. Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In Q2’22, the US economy unexpectedly contracted for a second quarter in a row. On a narrow measure of the economy, America has thus suffered a ‘technical’ recession in the first half of the year.

However, will this streak likely continue, and what is the growth outlook expectation for the US economy?

Tune in to our latest podcast with chief economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

The world to come is one of change, and it pays to keep watch on the megatrends that have the power to reshape our world.

Hear from value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham as he expounds the dangers of the climate crisis, mounting investment bubbles and the long-term structural changes in the markets investors need to prepare for.Speakers:

Jeremy Grantham, Long term investment strategist & Co-Founder, GMO
Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer, Bank of Singapore

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Technology and data-driven solutions can power a new way of life by improving connectivity, safety and revolutionising urbanisation.

How can investors and business owners harness technology to thrive in this new world?

Speakers:

Sean Connor, President, Blue Owl Securities and Managing Director, Blue Owl Capital
Goh Chee Kiong, Chief Executive, Charge+
Kelvin Tay, Managing Director of Future Mobility, Goldbell Group and Chief Executive Officer, BlueSG
Moderated by: Yvonne Chan, Former CNA Presenter

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Global food prices are rising rapidly, driven by a mix of lingering supply-side bottlenecks from Covid-19, the Russia-Ukraine war and unfavourable weather conditions. Food security has now become a key concern for consumers and governments - how prepared are we for this brewing storm?

Speakers:

Agne Rackauskaite, Co-Portfolio Manager, Impax Asset Management (an Affiliate of BNP Paribas Asset Management)
Bhaveer Shah, Vice President, Climate & ESG Research, MSCI
Tan Yong Nang, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Japfa Ltd
Moderated by: Yvonne Chan, Former CNA Presenter

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

The only certainty about the markets recently is volatility. Given the macro environment and geopolitical factors at play, how should investors recalibrate their investment approach and risk appetite? Have markets fully reflected the impact of higher rates and if not, how should investors gear up for the prospect of greater uncertainty ahead?

Speakers:

Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer, Bank of Singapore
Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy, Bank of Singapore
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Chief Economist, Bank of Singapore
Todd Schubert, Head of Fixed Income Research, Bank of Singapore

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Inflation is called the bondholder’s worst enemy, and for good reason, as it has a pernicious impact on fixed income investments.

We recently had a headline inflation number of 8.6%, the highest since 1981, and coincidentally, one of the worst 1H for fixed income investments in modern memory, with USD credit portfolios down in double digits, and some down as much as 15 -18%.

Given these moves, there are two key concerns bond investors might logically be wondering – first, if there is any way to insulate one’s portfolio against rising rates, and second, if there is no sure-fire way to hedge against rising rates, then should one abandon the asset class altogether?

Tune in to our latest podcast with Todd Schubert, Head of Fixed Income Research, to find out more.

This month the Fed raised its fed funds rate by 75bps to 1.50-1.75% to curb soaring inflation in the US. This was the Fed’s first 75bps rate increase since 1994. We think the current Fed tightening cycle is likely to be very similar to 1994’s aggressive cycle.

In 1994, the Fed raised interest rates at every meeting of the year by 50bps and finished the year by increasing the fed funds rate by 75bps at the last meeting of the year.

We expect the current Fed hiking cycle to be similarly rapid in 2022. Tune in to our latest podcast with chief economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, to find out more.

The current debate between the bulls and the bears rages on – the bulls believe that we should not waste a good market correction, while the bears believe the worst is still not over and we will be seeing more downside…

What is clear is that with this tussle, volatility will remain in the near to medium term, largely due to heightened inflation risks and a more challenging operating environment.

It has been a tough year for equities, and the question on everyone’s mind is, will this be ending soon?

In this podcast episode, Carmen Lee, our investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, reviews the latest market conditions and how investors should prepare themselves in the coming weeks.

Global equity markets, especially the US, experienced another wild ride last week.

The earnings growth in the US, is visibly turning downwards and investors are increasingly less confident about the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft landing of the economy. Inflation and supply chains remain increasingly concerning, as well as the impact of China’s ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, and the potential that it could add to persistence of inflation, especially in the US.

Neo Bee Leng, investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, reviews the latest market conditions and how investors should prepare themselves in the coming weeks.

What started off as a small ripple, is now turning into a bigger wave of USD rally, and the two key drivers behind the rise of the King Dollar, are a hawkish Fed, and slowing growth outside the US.

In this podcast episode, Sim Moh Siong, currency and commodity strategist at Bank of Singapore, explores the key considerations which investors should pay attention to over the coming weeks. Tune in to find out more.

As the war in Ukraine enters its third month, there is still little visibility on a resolution to the conflict in the near term and disruptions to the supply of energy and other commodities are fuelling widespread price increases that threaten to hurt global demand.

Investors remain concerned about the rising risk of a stagflationary path ahead for the world economy, marked by slow growth and high inflation – and these concerns are weighing heavily on risk appetite and overall sentiment.

In this podcast episode, Conrad Tan, investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, explores the three key market drivers which investors should pay attention to over the coming weeks.

The Russia-Ukraine war and its spill over effects on energy and commodity prices continue to dominate market sentiment, furthermore, recent events have brought about the re-emergence of commodities that historically haven't been part of the energy transition conversation, specifically natural gas and nuclear.

What are the foreseeable opportunities and threats for the energy sector moving forward?

We speak to guest speakers Joy Perry from Wellington Commodities, and Alastair Bishop from BlackRock, to share their expert insights on energy transitions, impact of geopolitics and inflationary expectations, sustainable investing and other significant structural trends that will drive energy markets going forward.

Speakers:

Jean Chia

Joy Perry (Wellington Commodities)

Alastair Bishop (BlackRock)

Investing in a rising rate environment is going to require a new paradigm and a new perspective.

Join our fixed income research advisers as they discuss the near-term outlook and strategies on how to position for rising rates and inflation. The team also explores investor opportunities amidst the current market environments, particularly in emerging market sovereigns and the EM corporate universe.

Speakers:

**Todd Schubert

David Makoni

Oleksiy Shkolnyk**

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, like the pandemic, has caused a major shock for financial markets. Oil, gas and food prices have soared, and growth is weakening in energy-importing countries. Central banks face difficult trade-offs between curbing inflation and supporting economies. Officials urgently seek alternative energy supplies, and geopolitical risks have surged as western nations threaten to sanction Russia’s potential allies while governments everywhere have started to increase defence spending.

Our experts from Bank of Singapore’s CIO office, discuss the key investment themes which will drive the second half of 2022: geopolitical uncertainty, rising inflation, China’s stability, and alternative assets in a volatile world.

Speakers:

**Jean Chia

Mansoor Mohi-uddin

Eli Lee**

The Russia-Ukraine war, which has entered its next phase, has been met with wide-ranging sanctions on Russia, and these in turn have had downstream implications on energy supply, inflation expectations, interest rates and bond yields.

Caught in the crosshairs of this conflict is the global economy, as policy makers face the twin dilemma of combating inflationary forces with monetary tightening measures while taking care not to derail the nascent economic recovery in the process

As we kick off Q2 of 2022, it is timely for us to re-adjust our game plan and chart the course for the rest of this year. In this podcast episode, our Chief Investment Officer, Jean Chia, explores the four key investment themes for investors to focus on for the second quarter of 2022.

Tune in to find out more.

As the war in Ukraine enters its second month, there is still little visibility on a resolution to the conflict in the near term.

The war has injected significant uncertainty into an already difficult macro environment marked by high inflation in major economies and slowing growth.

In today’s podcast, we hear from Conrad Tan, our investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, as he shares the key updates for the market outlook, which investors should pay attention to in the coming weeks. Tune in to find out more.

Our fixed income research strategist, Boh Hui Ling, shares the outlook for the property sector in Indonesia. In spite of emerging challenges with higher mortgage rates and construction costs, there are still silver linings for investors, and we expect the Indonesia property sector to be supported in the near term. Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Our commodity and currency strategist, Sim Moh Siong, looks at the Russia-Ukraine crisis and how their conflict will impact the global economy and financial markets.

Energy prices moved higher over the past week as the invasion has increased the risk of a disruption to Russian energy exports. Over the weekend, the US and its allies also announced that they will place sanctions on the Russian central bank and remove some Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system.

There is uncertainty about the probability of sanctions which might be imposed on Russian energy exports, as this may result in a spike in oil prices, and send significant stagflationary shock that would retard growth and boost headline inflation globally, also weakening the Euro, especially if the surge in oil prices is accompanied by soaring European gas prices.

How will these latest market developments impact investors and the global economic recovery? Tune in to find out more.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week after last week’s strong US inflation report. US inflation is now at a 40-year high, and still likely to peak in the spring, as this year’s price rises ease compared to last year’s rapid gains.

Join our Chief Economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, as he shares the latest in Fed developments and his forecasts for how it might impact Treasury yields.

In recent weeks, markets have been undergoing a volatile adjustment to the Fed’s hawkish shift that was signalled in early January. This has driven a sharp increase in nominal and real yields as investors reassess their expectations for Fed policy tightening.

In our latest podcast, Conrad Tan, Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore, helps investors navigate the uneven landscape.

Although the current climate calls for a much more selective investment approach, careful management of downside risks, and proper diversification, beyond the near term turbulence, we see new opportunities emerging from structural shifts associated with strategic policy initiatives worldwide to pursue greater security and resilience, and sustainable, climate-friendly development paths.

Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In this episode, we feature our opening keynote address for Beyond 2022 - New Horizons, delivered live on 11th January 2022 by Professor Kishore Mahbubani.

Tune in to listen to his confident predictions about the future:

US-China geopolitical contest
The Greatest Power Struggle the world has seen
China's Growth Story: how fast and how far
Implications for Southeast Asia and Singapore, and the opportunities in the horizon

About the speaker:

Professor Kishore Mahbubani is widely considered to be one of Asia’s leading global public intellectuals, having appeared several times in Foreign Policy Magazine’s list of top 100 global thinkers. In 2014, he was also listed by The Financial Times as one of the 50 individuals who would shape the debate on the future of capitalism.

Kishore has enjoyed three distinguished careers: in diplomacy, academia, and writing and speaking. In diplomacy, he served in the Singapore Foreign Service for 33 years (serving also as permanent secretary (CEO) of the foreign ministry and two stints as Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN). In academia, he was the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at NUS which is deemed to be the premier school in Asia in its field.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In this fireside chat, our chief economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, sits down with Professor Kishore Mahbubani to look at the latest global issues and how the global economy might change in 2022 as countries return to life-as-normal again.

Tune in to hear their perspectives on:- How will the pandemic evolve? Will countries co-operate to get the entire planet vaccinated so life can return to normal again?

Will China reopen its borders with the rest of the world? What are the challenges that Asia might face in 2022? How will geopolitical tensions between US & China affect smaller economies in Asia?
Will President Biden be able to recover his ratings and ensure the Democrats keep control of Congress in November's mid-term elections?
What are some of the global challenges we should anticipate in 2022? What are some of the risks we should consider?

Speakers:

Prof. Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Chief Economist, Bank of Singapore

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In this episode, listen to our Bank of Singapore investment experts discuss the key themes to watch for 2022:

Inflation, Deflation or Stagflation?
The Bumpy Road to "Common Prosperity"
A Brave New World
Building Climate Resilience

Speakers:

Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer, Bank of Singapore
Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy, Bank of Singapore
Todd Schubert, Head of Fixed Income Research, Bank of Singapore

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

What challenges and opportunities lie ahead for ASEAN’s USD4 trillion consumer market and perhaps most importantly, how can we all play our part in contributing to a more resilient and sustainable future?

For this blockbuster panel segment, we bring together 4 renowned Asian leaders to share their expertise in a power packed discussion on the challenges and opportunities ahead for Asia:

H.E. Jusuf Kalla, Former Vice President of Indonesia
Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Deputy Prime Minister and Former Finance Minister for Malaysia
Abhisit Vejjajiva, Former Prime Minister of Thailand
George Yeo, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs in Singapore
moderated by Ho Kwon Ping, Founder and Executive Chairman of Banyan Tree Holdings

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

As the global climate crisis becomes more urgent, we delve into the impact of climate change and speak to Mark Carney to share his expert insights on climate policy, double materiality, climate-related risks, green inflation, global energy consumption, and his thoughts about the transition to net zero...

Mark Carney is a Vice Chair of Brookfield Asset Management and Head of Transition Investing. In this role, he is focused on the development of products for investors that will combine positive social and environmental outcomes with strong risk-adjusted returns.

This episode is moderated by Chloe Cho, international journalist, as part of the Bank of Singapore Beyond 2022 hybrid conferene on 11 January 2022.

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In our latest podcast, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore, advises investors to remain watchful of potential volatility in the horizon:

Investors should not rule out the risk of sharp volatility even within bull markets
It is time to reassess positions and exercise risk management, especially in early stage high growth companies.
Structurally, the post-pandemic bull market remains intact, preferring “real economy” stocks with strong earnings and cash flow fundamentals

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In our latest podcast, Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of Singapore, starts the year on a sweet note, by guiding investors on the right type of “flavour combinations” to consider as they construct their perfectly curated “box of chocolates” (i.e. investment portfolio for 2022).

Every chocolate lover knows that nothing beats the satisfaction of a well-curated selection, but with so many flavours to choose from, how can investors decide on the right combination that will enable them to create a well-diversified and sustainably-sourced portfolio?

Tune in for more tips on creating the optimal combination, including the importance of diversification, knowing your operating environment and how to balance classic staples (stocks and bond investments) with seasonal flavours (thematic investments).

For more of our latest market insights, visit:https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In this episode, Chatri Sityodtong – Founder, Chairman and CEO of ONE Championship takes on The Hot Seat with our host Mark Laudi to talk about embracing the warrior mindset, overcoming life’s adversities and his quest to build a global mixed martial arts empire.

For entrepreneurs and technopreneurs, it is clear that succeeding in this re-booted business world requires a new approach, a different playbook from the one we had. Why do some succeed while others failed? Was there a magic ingredient that made all the difference? Which factors tipped the scales in their favour, and what lessons can we learn?

Chatri Sityodtong is a self-made entrepreneur and lifelong martial artist from Thailand. His rags-to-riches life story has inspired millions around the world on BBC, CNN, Bloomberg TV, CNBC and other major media. Sityodtong is also the star of the latest 2021 edition of The Apprentice, the award-winning global reality TV show. Most recently, he was named Asia’s King of Martial Arts by the Financial Times, and Asia’s 2nd Most Powerful Person in Sports by FOX Sports. Business Insider also ranked him as one of Asia’s Top 100 Business Leaders.

Last week, investors around the world got a rude shock after news emerged of a new Covid-19 variant (“Omicron” or B.1.1.529), and this in turn triggered one of the worst Black Friday corrections on record.

The World Health Organisation has classified Omicron as a “variant of concern".

In only a few short days, events have escalated remarkably quickly and cases have been uncovered in Europe and Asia, with governments globally now going on high alert to protect their populations.

In this episode, Conrad Tan, Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore, gives us an urgent update about the Omicron variant and how it might impact markets over the next few days.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

The FX markets are starting to wake up as central banks have now signaled that they are prepared to change interest rate policies.

The phase of central bank convergence towards lower interest rates is over, and measures of expected volatility in currency markets have been edging up to reflect a more divergent world.

In our latest podcast episode, Sim Moh Siong, ourCommodity and Currency Strategist, shares his forecast for commodity currency performance, including why investors should remain optimistic about the US dollar’s resilience going into 2022.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Over the past few months, the saga of Evergrande and the creeping contagion in the broader Chinese property market has been the primary focus in the Emerging Market Corporates. With Chinese High Yield down some 30% or so year-to-date and a number of defaults, the spotlight continues to shine brightly on the property sector.

However, it is important to keep in mind that China represents only 25% of the Emerging Market Corporate universe and less than 15% in High Yield.

In today’s podcast, Todd Schubert, Head of Fixed Income Research at Bank of Singapore, explores opportunities beyond China and some of the key themes investors should pay attention to in the near future.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Last week, the Fed announced it would begin tapering its asset purchase programme and will likely finish its asset purchases by June 2022. While this signifies the beginning of the end of QE, Fed chair Jerome Powell stressed that the first interest rate hike still remains some distance away.

As we draw closer to 2022, markets face a tug of war between optimism over the earnings growth recovery and uncertainty over inflation risks.

In today’s podcast episode, Jean Chia, ourChief Investment Officer, shares her perspective on how markets could potentially play out and how investors should navigate ahead moving into 2022. Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

The climate crisis poses an existential threat to every country, especially a small island state like Singapore. The urgency of the climate crisis is even more stark today, and both governments and corporations recognise the need for bold climate action and are stepping up efforts to combat this threat.

However, dealing with the impacts of climate change and transforming the way we produce and consume will require collective and integrated action from all segments of society. Putting people at the centre of climate action must be the way forward.

How can we mobilise our most precious resource – human capital on this long-haul journey? What can countries and businesses do to unlock the full potential of their people in order to accelerate sustainability transformation?

Speakers:

Tan Chuan-Jin(Speaker of the Parliament of Singapore)

Yvonne Chan(Host & Former CNA Presenter)

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Home to more than half of the world’s population, much of our urban areas are located in places at risk. Modern urban infrastructure are also closely connected, and failure in one part of the network could affect another, multiplying the damage. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of extreme weather. To protect the lives and livelihoods of urban residents, how can we adapt and ultimately, leverage innovation and technology to strengthen our cities and build systemic resilience? More importantly, how do we power the cities of tomorrow sustainably in the long run?

Speakers:

Goh Chee Kiong(CEO, CHARGE+)

Hwang Yu-Ning(Chief Planner & Deputy CEO, Urban Redevelopment Authority Singapore)

Yvonne Chan(Host & Former CNA Presenter)

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week with officials set to focus on two important tasks, the first, to start tapering its quantitative easing without causing a tantrum in financial markets, and the second, to reassure financial markets that the Fed will not immediately start increasing interest rates after its quantitative easing has finished.

Tune in to our latest podcast with our Chief Economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, as he helps investors navigate the latest in market developments.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Dr William C. Dudley sits down with our chief economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin¸ to lend his valuable perspective on how the Fed sees the economic outlook, when the central bank will start tapering its quantitative easing and how long officials will wait before increasing interest rates.

Dr William C. Dudley is the former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2009-2018) and Vice-Chairman and permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Starting this Sunday, government leaders from over 190 countries will be gathering in Glasgow, Scotland for the key climate summit, the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties or COP26. These discussions will be the culmination of intense efforts in recent months by top government officials worldwide to secure stronger international commitments to fight climate change and to turn those commitments into action.

In today’s podcast episode, Conrad Tan, ourInvestment Strategist, shares the top 5 issues he expects investors will be most concerned about for the summit. Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Over the past week, markets have been facing a tug of war between optimism over the earnings growth recovery and uncertainty over inflation risks. In this episode, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore, helps investors navigate the latest in market developments:

Tug of war between optimism on growth outlook and inflation fears
Inflation more persistent than expected but stagflationary scenario not our base case
Neutral stance on Chinese equities as low asset prices offset by subdued economic picture

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

As we head into the final months of the year, financial markets face new risks. Higher energy prices and rising US Treasury bond yields are forcing investors to re-examine their positions in risky assets that are sensitive to inflation and higher interest rates.

This calls for a much more selective investment approach, compared to the earlier stage of the post-pandemic recovery, when the powerful thrust of coordinated monetary easing by central banks worldwide drove a broad market rally.

In this episode, Jean Chia, ourChief Investment Officer, helps investors navigate the final quarter of 2021 as four major transitions are underway. Tune in to find out more.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Commodities are making a comeback, but unlike the broad-based boom earlier this year, the commodity upswing is likely to be more differentiated.

Prices for crude oil and industrial metals, widely seen as barometers of economic activity, often track each other closely. However, the fortunes of crude oil could diverge from industrial metals over the next few months.

In our latest podcast episode, Sim Moh Siong, ourCommodity and Currency Strategist, shares his forecast for commodity performance and three reasons why investors should stay positive about oil prices this year.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Come end October, government officials from over 190 countries will be gathering in Glasgow, Scotland for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties or COP26.

These discussions in Glasgow will be the culmination of intense efforts in recent months by top government officials worldwide to secure stronger international commitments to fight climate change and to turn those commitments into action.

In this podcast episode, Conrad Tan, ourInvestment Strategist, shares the five key updates he is expecting from the upcoming summit.

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

The prolonged turmoil in the Chinese HY bond market has caused much anxiety.

In this episode, Chan Wai Mei, ourSenior Research Analyst with the Fixed Income Research team, addresses some key concerns surrounding HY property bonds.

Tune in to find out more about why the prices have been so volatile, obtain updates on Evergrande, and find out how it might impact other Chinese property bonds should it default, and most importantly, what should investors do given the market volatility.

Financial markets tend to be wary of Autumn as past years have seen major shocks around this time. In October 1987, Wall Street crashed with stocks falling by more than 20% in a single day. In September 1998, the US hedge fund LTCM collapsed after Russia’s government defaulted on its debts. And in September 2008, the bankruptcy of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers intensified the global financial crisis.

In 2021, we see the economic outlook continuing to favour risk assets. But our chief economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin remains cautious and shares the top 5 risks investors should be watching closely over the next few weeks.

Meet the man behind Razer, the world's leading lifestyle brand for gamers.

Tan Min-Liang, one of Asia's biggest technopreneurs, tells us his story; sharing candid insights about his life, passions, starting Razer, and how he continues to take this billion-dollar company to the next-level, redefining the future of gaming.

Min-Liang is best known as the co-founder, CEO and creative director of gaming hardware company, Razer Inc., and CEO of THX. He debuted in 2016 on the Forbes Singapore Rich List with a net worth of US$600 million and became the youngest self-made Singaporean billionaire at the age of 40 with a net worth of US$1.6 billion when Razer went public in 2017. Juniper Research distinguished him as one of the “Top 10 Most Influential Leaders in Tech” while Tech in Asia has ranked him No. 1 of the 30 Top Southeast Asia tech founders. In 2016, he was among those named “Straits Times Asians of the Year”.

To watch the event replay, follow this link: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/events/the-hot-seat.html

For more of our latest market insights, visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

Tune in to Simon Mainwaring, one of the world's most highly sought after brand futurists, New York Times bestselling author, founder and CEO of We First, a strategic consultancy that accelerates the growth and impact for purpose driven brands, as he shares his expertise on:

how to unlock greater value for consumers and shareholders
how incumbent businesses can reinvent themselves to establish continued relevance and engagement with the new age consumers
how next generation leaders can uncover the right brand positioning for their business to ensure their success amidst the shifting market dynamics
and which industries will see greater growth potential against this new market backdrop To watch the event replay, visit this link: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/events/leading-in-the-new-world.html

Technological advancements have brought about economic development that was once unimaginable, and in the next decade, new technologies will drive a wave of disruptive innovation that will transform operating models and consumer behaviour. Join our experts as they discuss space, biotech, online healthcare, digital payments, fintech and the opportunities these present for investors.

Speakers

Tony Kim, Head of Technology Investing, BlackRock

Emmanuel Pitsilis, Co-head for Asia Pacific, Partners Capital

Joseph Ng, Global Technology Analyst, Bank of Singapore

To watch our full event replay, or access our 2021 Mid Year Outlook Report, visit this link: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/events/mid-year-outlook-2021.html

Dr Mohamed El-Erian shares his market outlook for 2H 2021 and focuses on concerns that increases in inflation this year may not prove to be transitory. He also talks about key trends, monetary policy and the wild cards investors should watch out for in the 2H 2021.

Speakers

Dr Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Chief Economist, Bank of Singapore

To watch our full event replay, or access our 2021 Mid Year Outlook Report, visit this link: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/events/mid-year-outlook-2021.html

In this week’s podcast episode, our Chief Investment Officer, Jean Chia, explores the latest global developments impacting investors in the near future:

__The US Federal Reserve has signalled its intentions to begin tapering of its asset purchases this year, which could trigger some market volatility in the coming months.

__China’s regulatory actions continue to be a focal point for investors, amidst the visible softening of incoming economic data.

__The Delta variant spread remains a persistent risk and the lingering threat of the pandemic means that most policymakers will continue to maintain accommodative conditions to support their economies.

To read more of our investment insights, please visit: https://www.bankofsingapore.com/insight-listing.html?

In our latest podcast, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore, shares the top three concerns impacting investors this week:

Risk-on reaction to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech, as he leans dovish on taper message
US fiscal related developments to be a key market driver in 4Q 2021
Delta variant related risks loom in background as infection trends in US and Europe remain worrying

Tune in now to find out more…

Earlier this month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a landmark assessment on the state of the world’s declining climate situation.

This report is expected to be a critical tool driving climate policy worldwide as governments strengthen their decarbonisation commitments ahead of a key climate summit in November 2021.

In this episode, Conrad Tan, our Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore, shares his five key takeaways from the IPCC report, and why we should expect to see accelerated efforts to decarbonise economic activity around the world in the near future.

Gold has had a bit of a bumpy ride this year with fluctuating prices due to US yields. We believe that gold still has a place in investor portfolios, but allocations are likely to be smaller than before.

US yields have declined as investors have become more relaxed that the rising US inflation will be transitory – but US rates have also been impacted due to growth anxiety fuelled by the spread of the Delta variant.

In this week’s podcast, Sim Moh Siong, our Commodity & Currency Strategist at Bank of Singapore, shares his views on the gold outlook and why investors should remain cautious given prospects of rising US yields over the next 6 - 12 months.

The Chinese HY dollar bonds have been underperforming since the start of this year, contradicting earlier expectations of an outperformance, due to China’s strong recovery from the pandemic and its attractive valuation vis-à-vis other emerging markets.

With the recent clampdown on technology and education sectors, this has resulted in a further sell-off in July.

In this week’s podcast, Chan Wai Mei, looks at the recent turmoil in the Chinese HY bond market and offers a survival guide to navigating this challenging landscape.

The Federal Reserve will have plenty to discuss when its policymakers next meet on July 27-28.

The central bank will likely assess the state of America’s labour market and how far it is from meeting the Fed’s goal of maximum employment. There are also likely to be deep discussions on downside risks to the outlook posed by the delta variant’s spread in the US, and also on inflation risks.

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Bank of Singapore’s Chief Economist, shares his insights on what to expect from the upcoming FOMC meeting next week.

Smart Cities of the future: Which industries are likely to be the most disrupted in a world where technology and automation takes over? Can we predict which cities will make up the new "Tier 1" geographies? What will these smart cities look like? What are the new frontiers of proptech? And which industries do we believe will become the most disrupted through AI? Tune in to find out more...

About our Speakers:

Parag Khanna, Founder and Managing Partner of data and scenario based strategic advisor for FutureMap

Ivan Vatchkov, Founder of the health care startup Kalibra, a digital wellbeing companion

Charles Anderson, a leading industry expert working at the intersection of IoT, Smart Cities and Proptech

Dr Ayesha Khanna, Co-founder and CEO of AI consultancy firm ADDO AI & Member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Councils

gamechanger #artificialintelligence #startup #innovation #digitaltransformation #Global #Future #smartcities #proptech

Join our guest speakers, Parag Khanna, Ivan Vatchkov, Dr Ayesha Khanna and Charles Anderson as they discuss the evolving role of data, leveraging technology in the health and wellness industries, the relationship between proptech, smart cities and AI, and how global governance has impacted and transformed the innovation ecosystem.

About our Speakers: - Parag Khanna, *Founder and Managing Partner of data and scenario based strategic advisor for FutureMap

- Ivan Vatchkov,* Founder of the health care startup Kalibra, a digital wellbeing companion

Charles Anderson, a leading industry expert working at the intersection of IoT, Smart Cities and Proptech
Dr Ayesha Khanna, Co-founder and CEO of AI consultancy firm ADDO AI & Member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Councils

gamechanger #artificialintelligence #startup #innovation #digitaltransformation #Global #Future #smartcities #proptech

Moving into the second half of 2021, investors will need to navigate an environment where the global economy continues to expand, but at a slower pace, and policymakers are expected to start staging their gradual exit from record levels of stimulus.

This will call for a much more selective investment approach compared to the earlier stage of the post-pandemic recovery, when the powerful thrust of coordinated monetary easing by central banks worldwide drove a broad market rally.

In our latest podcast, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore, shares the key themes which investors should watch for in Q3 2021. Tune in to find out more…

In our latest podcast, Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of Singapore, shares the Hitchhikers’ Guide for Investing in the 2nd Half of 2021...

As investors, we are confronted by unchartered scenarios this year: thanks to an uneven post-pandemic economic recovery, increasingly digitalised societies, a battle of hegemonies in geopolitics and the urgent climate challenge.

Jean sheds light on the four key themes to look out for, and how these will impact economies, businesses and capital markets in the second half of 2021:

Rising Inflationary pressures
The Reshaping of China’s Economy
Innovative Digitalisation & Disruption
The Narrow Path to Net Zero

An episode not to be missed - tune in to find out more…

investmentoutlook #ESG #netzero #macroeconomics #digitalisation #thenewnormal

The US High Yield is currently among the best performing credit classes globally, posting a solid 3.3% year-to-date return. And spreads are now less than 30 basis points from the all-time low in 2006.

In our latest podcast, Todd Schubert, Head of Fixed Income at Bank of Singapore, shares five reasons why despite optically tight valuations in US High Yield, the team believes that there is further room for modest spread tightening and also retaining our Marketweight recommendation on the asset class.

Tune in to find out more…

marketoutlook #investmentweekly #fixedincome #USHighYield

Dr Ayesha Khanna shares insights on the biggest trends in AI which are most important for business adoption, lessons from TikTok, Carro and other game-changing AI-driven businesses which are transforming our economy and the way we live, work and play.

Tune in to discover more about:

How far-reaching can future AI applications be and what will take AI capabilities to the next level?
What can AI do for businesses to increase its customer centricity – which is a key factor of success?
What learnings can we glean from the key wins and pitfalls of AI adoption by businesses?

Dr Ayesha Khanna is the co-founder and CEO of ADDO AI, and is renowned for her expertise and knowledge of artificial intelligence solutions. Ayesha is also a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Councils.

gamechanger #artificialintelligence #startup #innovation #digitaltransformation #Global #Future #businesstrends

In our latest podcast, Conrad Tan, Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore, explores recent developments which are accelerating decarbonisation of the world economy.

Embedding the cost of carbon pollution into business and investment decisions will provide a much-needed boost to global efforts to align economic activity worldwide with climate goals.

Tune in to find out more about these global initiatives and the opportunities these present for investors…

sustainability #netzero #climatechange #ESG #investingforgood

Tune in to our latest podcast with Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Chief Economist at Bank of Singapore.

The Federal Reserve meets this week and is set to keep its very dovish stance despite consumer prices surprising on the upside as the US economy reopens. But on a more hawkish note, the Fed is likely to also discuss when it will begin slowing its quantitative easing given the US economy’s strong rebound from the pandemic.

In our latest episode, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore, discusses the latest global economic developments and key concerns impacting investors.

The new Executive Order on Chinese stocks by the Biden White House last week contributed to further uncertainties faced by a market already navigating issues of peak growth and stimulus in the months ahead.

As we position for the market to enter a more mature mid-cycle phase, we expect to see earnings growth play a greater role in driving price appreciation, in contrast to price-to-earnings multiple expansion, driven by lower real rates in the early post-pandemic recovery phase.

Tune in to find out more…

In our latest episode, Sim Moh Siong, Commodity & Currency Strategist at Bank of Singapore, explores why commodities are set to benefit from stronger economic activity, especially in light of global advances toward a re-opening, largely supported by policy stimulus and vaccination progress.

Commodities are also benefitting from positioning for higher inflation, as they do historically offer better returns compared to other asset classes in such situations.

For the latest forecasts on copper, oil and gold, tune in to find out more…

bankofsg #investment #finance #commodities #globaltrade #economy #copper #oil #gold #forecast

In our latest episode, Todd Schubert, Head of Fixed Income Research at Bank of Singapore, shares five reasons why Emerging Markets High Yield remains a viable investment alternative.

There is a common perception that one cannot make money in Fixed Income during periods of rising rates. However in this episode, Todd shows us that this is actually a misperception. Emerging Markets High Yield has actually posted a positive return year-to-date and he expects it to do even better going forward.

Now to set the stage, Joe Biden’s election as U.S President last November created significant reflationary expectations, based on huge fiscal impulse coupled with an already accommodative Fed. As a result the ten-year U.S Treasury has risen more than 80 basis points so far this year.

One might logically think that this type of climate would be bad for all Fixed Income but if you thought this, you would be incorrect.

Tune in to find out more...

In our latest episode, Carmen Lee, Bank of Singapore’s Equity Strategist for the Singapore market, takes a closer look at our island nation’s strategic plans for fast-tracking sustainability and digital transformation amidst the highly challenging and evolving global crisis.

With more locally transmitted Covid-19 cases, the Singapore market has given up some gains recently. However has this recent surge derailed Singapore’s bold smart nation and ambitious green plan 2030?

We think not.

Tune in to find out more...

In this episode, Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of Singapore, looks at the outcome of the recently released US ISM survey results and employment data, and its impact on the financial markets and foreign exchange forecasts ahead. Softer jobs growth, higher unemployment and rising participation all demonstrate that significant market slack still needs to be absorbed before the Fed starts tapering quantitative easing (QE). Around the world, COVID-19 continues to put economic recovery at risk as outbreaks continue to rise across various emerging markets.

With all this volatility, the big question for investors remains - should you sell in May and go away? We say not yet.

Tune in to find out more...

In our latest episode, our chief economist, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, shares an overview of the key events occuring in the US and the UK, which are likely to gain the most attention in financial markets - the release of US ISM survey results and employment data, and a Super Thursday of events in the UK, including the Bank of England's latest policy meeting followed by voting in the Scottish parliament elections.

Tune in to find out more...

In our latest episode, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy, looks at the asset allocation strategy ahead - the outlook for risk assets remains positive but the increasing focus on taxes poses a tactical challenge for investors. Also, the increase in corporate tax rate is expected to be offset by growth in corporate earnings, although the impact will vary by sector.

Tune in to find out more...

In this episode, David Makoni, Senior Analyst for Fixed Income Research, gives a brief overview of our near-term outlook on emerging market sovereigns and shares his six key considerations for investors.

Tune in to find out more...

In this episode, Jean Chia, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of Singapore, explores the four key themes which will shape the investment climate over the next quarter: inflation tantrum, Asia's path to sustainable growth, President Biden's first 100 days and disruptive innovation.

Tune in to find out more...

In this episode, Sim Moh Siong, Currency Strategist at Bank of Singapore, explores the key concerns impacting investors this week: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, China's CPI inflation and Eurozone's vaccination progress. Tune in to find out more...

In this episode, Conrad Tan, Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore, looks at the top five concerns this week: higher bond yields and their impact on risk assets, can equities continue to perform in a rising yield environment, policy support for the federal reserve, ongoing blockage of the Suez Canal and the renewed spread of COVID-19 in parts of Europe. Tune in to find out more...

In this episode, Eli Lee, Head of Investment Strategy at Bank of Singapore, looks at rising inflationary fears and turbulence in the US treasury bond yield markets.

In this episode, Bank of Singapore celebrates SG100 Women in Tech, with a special interview featuring Tan Yen Yen, Independent Director of OCBC Bank, Chairman of the Science Centre Singapore and Director of amsAGand Celine Le Cotonnec, Chief Data & Innovation Officer for Bank of Singapore.

Yen Yenis a bold leader who has shaken up the tech industry throughout her illustrious career in organisations such as Vodafone, SAS, Oracle and Hewlett-Packard. She has played a pivotol role in Singapore's infocomm industry, including being Chairman of the Singapore Infocomm Technology Federation (Now SGTech), Board director of Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) of Singapore and member of Corporate Capabilities and Innovation sub-committee with the Singapore Government Future Economy.

Yen Yen shares her invaluable insights on emerging technologies she is most excited about, Smart Nation, and a glimpse of what to expect with the much anticipated 5G technology...

In this episode, Bank of Singapore celebrates SG100 Women in Tech, with a special interview featuring Celine Le Cotonnec, Chief Data & Innovation Officer for Bank of Singapore, together with Jana Marle-Zizkova, Chief Executive Officer & Co-Founder of Meiro & She Loves Data, to discuss the immense value of data as a vital asset in the customer-centric digital economy.

Jana also shares her insights on 'She Loves Data', a non-profit movement she co-founded in 2016, as a means to provide training to women, ensuring that they are equipped with vital technological and digital skills needed for the future. The organisation now has over 60 volunteers in more than 10 countries, helping over 10,000 women start their journey in tech.

In this episode, Bank of Singapore speaks with catalysts for change, TurtleTree Labs, who are pioneering the way for sustainable food technology, and innovating for a better tomorrow.

TurtleTree Labs,co-founded by Fengru Lin (CEO), and Max Rye (Chief Strategist), is a proprietary sustainable food technology venture that seeks to revolutionise the US$716B global dairy market and environmental crisis with ‘clean milk’.

Their patented cell-based technology, is able to create full composition milk and cultured milk products, without the pollution, inefficient use of land, water and energy (natural resources), pathogen and disease risk, and tangled regulatory politics.

In this episode, Bank of Singapore speaks with Green Monday, a global catalyst for change who has been paving the way in advocating for a better tomorrow...

David Yeung,is the Founder of Green Monday, a multi-faceted social venture, that aims to tackle climate change, global food insecurity, public health and animal welfare issues. David shares his insights on constructing a regenerative global ecosystem of future food and how this will greatly impact our world and aid towards the ongoing climate crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a human tragedy with high fatalities and lasting effects on the global economy, Professor Sir Gordon Duff and Professor Duncan Richards, both leading University of Oxford academics in pandemic research, share insights on the role of big pharma and the post-pandemic future in the last of a 2-part podcast hosted by Jean Chia, our Head of Portfolio Management and Research Office.

The race is for a COVID-19 vaccine and treatments by the University of Oxford and other global research consortia to improve the prognosis for fears of a second wave of infection as more countries reopen. Professor Sir Gordon Duff and Professor Duncan Richards, both leading Oxford University academics in pandemic research, share insights into what it takes to find the panacea with Jean Chia, our Head of Portfolio Management and Research Office in the first of a 2-part podcast.