China Perspectives: Recent Episodes
Fitch Ratings
China Perspectives series is a monthly discussion on the latest credit market and economic developments from China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.
Jing Yang, Director of Fitch’s China Research Initiatives based in Shanghai, shares insight on China’s booming electric vehicles industry and Chinese automakers’ overseas diversification trends.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (01:18) - Growth drivers of China’s EV Market
- (05:45) - EV price wars
- (07:59) - Chinese EV brands’ competitive edge
- (09:53) - Can foreign and JV brands catch up?
- (11:02) - Evolving competitive landscape
- (14:00) - China’s EV exports
- (16:10) - Risks of Chinese automakers’ overseas strategy
James MacDonald, Senior Director and Head of China Research at Savills based in Shanghai, shares first-hand experience and observations on the country’s residential, commercial, and industrial real estate markets. Through his professional lens as an 18-year industry veteran, James discusses the key structural changes in China’s real estate market and the broader economy.
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (02:00) - China’s residential market condition
- (03:27) - Policy direction and stimuluses
- (07:15) - China’s commercial property market condition
- (10:42) - Oversupply risk in commercial property
- (14:00) - Investment trends in the office market
- (16:22) - Multinational companies’ China strategy shift
- (20:36) - China’s consumer market outlook
- (23:01) - “New Economy” real estate assets
- (25:48) - Growth potential for C-REITs
- (30:20) - Closing Remarks
Colin Mansfield, Sector Head for US Gaming, Lodging & Leisure at Fitch Ratings, positions Macao’s elusive gaming recovery within a broader global industry backdrop, and sheds light on the recent tenders for Macao’s new gaming concessions.
Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China, gives her latest views on the Chinese economy, with a focus on the property and labour markets, as well as the ongoing macro spillovers from the “zero Covid” policy.
Jenny Huang, a senior director leading Fitch Ratings’ China corporate research team, discusses the key motivations and methods the Chinese authorities employ to support companies in financial distress, drawing from recent case studies.
Long Chen, co-founder and partner at Plenum, weighs in on the “dynamic zero Covid” debate and shares his views on how the Omicron outbreak and global spillovers from the war in Ukraine are impacting China’s economy and policy outlook.
Tara Joseph, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, shares some parting reflections on Hong Kong’s evolving business climate, rule of law, Sino-US tensions, and the future of the territory as a global financial hub.
Adrian Cheng, Fitch Ratings’ Co-Head of Greater China Property, shares his latest thoughts on China’s residential sales and construction trends, and highlights the continued funding and liquidity challenges faced by the nation’s developers.
The Honourable Paul Chan Mo-po, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region discusses fiscal policy, housing, geopolitics, and his near-term outlook for the economy and cross-border travel amid a recent omicron outbreak.
Grace Wu, Fitch’s Head of Greater China Banks, discusses the impact of China’s ongoing property sector stress on the financial system, and gives her top-down view on how the balance of financial risks stands today compared with several years ago.
Jonathan Anderson, co-founder of Emerging Advisors Group, discusses the importance of the property sector to China’s economy, whether the nation is facing a property “bubble”, and potential lessons from the ongoing China Evergrande saga.
Charles Li, former Chief Executive of HKEX, discusses the importance of SMEs to China’s economy, how to enhance their access to financing, and the nation’s evolving regulatory environment in the context of his new venture, Micro Connect.
Julien Martin, General Manager for Bond Connect, offers insights into China’s onshore bond market trends, the trajectory of capital market reforms, and the origins and key innovations behind the Bond Connect scheme.
Sebastian Eckardt, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for China, Mongolia, and Korea, discusses the bank’s latest China Economic Update, with insights into the growth and inflation outlook, financial risks, income inequality, and poverty alleviation.
In our second episode, Mervyn Tang, Fitch’s Global Head of ESG Research, discusses electric vehicles, the new national emission trading scheme, and the potential credit implications of China’s evolving environmental policy landscape.
In the inaugural episode, Ying Wang, Head of Fitch’s APAC Energy & Utilities Group and Fitch’s China Research Initiative, discusses China’s onshore bond market, the latest wave of SOE defaults, and what to expect in 2021 and beyond.
How will China’s 14th Five-Year Plan impact its medium-term growth prospects? Will the Chinese yuan soon challenge the US dollar as one of the world’s leading global currencies?
These are among the topics we will discuss on “China Perspectives,” a new Fitch Ratings podcast hosted by the firm’s lead sovereign analyst for China, Andrew Fennell. China Perspectives will feature candid discussions on the economic and credit developments most impacting China with experts from both within and outside of Fitch Ratings.
As the first international credit rating agency to set up an office in in China in 1997, Fitch has unparalleled experience and market share in the region, with 21 active offices across the Asia-Pacific region.
Subscribe to the new Fitch China Perspectives podcast, and stay tuned for our inaugural episode on the current state of onshore bond defaults, out this April on your podcast app.