Investor Insights: Recent Episodes
Mike Williams
An overview on thoughts and lessons we have gleaned from 30+ years of helping clients from all over the globe meet their wealth-building goals.
Even as the masses crawl from one headline problem to the next, the real surprise is the markets are setting up to reach all-time highs far sooner than most recognize. Even in this near two year "waiting period" or lunch stop as we like to call it - the earnings from companies have fallen just 2.7% from their peak. This is after the complete collapse of the earnings from the entire energy sector. Upside remains the surprise.
All the angst over Brexit and it has served as nothing more than another opportunity to take advantage of panic - or in this case "Branic." The dust will settle and the odds are high that years from now we will witness this as something different - another opportunity to improve when most thought it would be bad.
While too many fret over every element in the news, data are improving on several fronts for the US. It seems pretty consistent - when other regions of the world get shaky--the US economy picks up the slack.
The great lesson of markets. Those who can react the least and stay focused on the long-term, tend to see the best results. Sure some years stink...but that has always been the case. Too much data has everyone thinking there is an easy way to sidestep problems. In fact, problems are part of the trip - a required part - to get long-term results. Ask yourself this: Think of the wealthiest market-timer you know? Think long - there is not one. There are also no market-timers on Forbes 400....and there never has been. Stay focused and be patient with your planning processes.
Data are improving, jobs are solid, personal income rising, mountains of cash in the bank and we are in the midst of the early stages of the latest earnings season. By the end of Q3 data, we will have round-tripped most of the energy collapse and bad comps. Hinting that earnings projections are increasing. Soon, 2016 will be forgotten and 2017-2018 will be the focus - and they are rising. So is the GDPNow data.
Here we are - new highs. And almost no celebration. I think I saw two headlines. This is good news for long-term investors as fear remains deep-seeded. The longer that lasts, the healthier the markets can remain. No man's land - new highs - just like 1982 all over again.
One would think that all-time highs would have rung in an enormous number of bulls. Indeed, that could not be farther from the case. Data show we now have 37 weeks in a row - and 70 out of last 71 weeks - showing lower bullish readings than normal. This registering at all-time new highs. Stunning.
In this episode we simply remind everyone that the "angst" (wasted) over Brexit will surely last for awhile, or until the media can find a new monster to tout. This one will serve us better in the US after all the dust has settled. Until then, stay focused on the Barbell Economy - it's working. And the summer haze has a bit more to go so let's stay patient. Listen in and let us know what you think.
As we all prep for a long weekend break which typically markets the middle of summer for kids out of school, the markets have almost completely recovered from the latest media-driven Armageddon: Brexit. At the end of the day, we expect more of the same: wasted fears, overblown risks, finely-defined ignorance and agreements in the EU which accomplish little and improve even less. Meanwhile, the US continues to strengthen while too many focus on yet another media darling. Stop acting like a moth to a flame. After all, we should know by now what usually happens to the moth.
Hard to believe but the second quarter has come to a close and half of 2016 is already behind us. Let's take it as a lesson: stop wasting time following the news, the media hype and the wasted-energy noise. Thinking in terms of lack has been a losing bet for decades. Bearish chatter is just that - chatter. Yes, there are tough parts of the pathway but the pathway is up a mountain over time. Don't waste another moment thinking in lack formation. Instead look at history and realize the abundance that awaits us here in the US. The Barbell Economy is real...stay focused on it, connect with it and ride the wave of massive change and upside ahead as Generation Y takes the baton - and drives us to places we cannot even imagine right now.
In this episode, we cover the reality of Brexit. Little will change - and much may get better. In any event, it will be years before it is done - hence the need to remain focused on Common Sense. History is fiulled with periods like we are dealing with noe - periods where too many sold first and asked quesitons later. Only to enter back into the markets at much higher prices when "the future was more clear." Trust us, the future is never clear.
But that is ok - it never has been before either.
We are told when younger to count to 100 before we get angry or do something we might regret later. In a play on that topic, I have gotten to 168,477 in my counting as we wade through the wasted Brexit reactions and patiently suggest we look for opportunity in the hoped for summer swoon.
Oh Boy....another Apocalypse Now. We suspect sooner rather than later, this woo shall turn into an Apocalypse Later. Markets are doing what they are supposed to do during panics: they are transferring stock from the hands of short-term speculators who are often too impatient into the hands of long-term investors building assets on the cheap. How many times do we need to see this before we get control of our emotions. Summer swoons are good in the long-run.
Yes, expect a second day of selling follow-through as the weekend heaped bad news onto all investors who were too busy at work to sell on Friday. We suspect this will be a second wave of sellers - once again overlooking the main driver of the US economy for the next 30-40 years. The good news? It is nothing at all to do with Brexit.
The first real day of summer and here we are - bored stiff. Plenty to fret over with markets gyrating back and forth about the Fed hikes and Brexit. Those are the monsters of the day. They will pass - and soon be replaced by bigger, uglier more dangerous monsters - like always. Stay focused and don't get sucked into the constant flow of worry.
The funny thing about the future is that it is impossible to predict yet the masses are constantly listening and reacting to a myriad of predictions from experts who are consistently wrong. Not sure what is worse - listening in the first place or continuing to listen after such a horrible record. Listen in here and let us know what you think.
As a play on words we blended Britain and wasted and got Brasted energy. The day of voting was setting up everyone for the results. People the world over were on pins and needles - for what? Something which falls under the "this too shall pas" category no matter the outcome.
So they did it! Brexit is real - or so we think. It will take years to actually be implemented. In this episode we cover the one issue you do not want to succumb to is panic. We have been through much worse - and all turned out fine. Stay patient.
It's summer. We have seen this movie before. Low volumes, more chop, louder news headlines to get your attention. There are some things worth paying attention to - so let's focus on those issues instead of all the negatives.
Grab some popcorn and remember this: Fear drives your attention, people drive markets.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
So many investors think that P/E's, rates, margins, earnings growth, PEG ratios and the constant growth of same are the key ingredients to successful portfolio decisions. If that were really the case, why then is everyone still so dissatisfied? Why then does the public get just 30% of what the market produces over long periods of time?
The facts? Focus on people first - they drive markets and knowing when that pipeline of buyers is getting smaller or larger is vital to understanding where a company is headed. Just a Levi's and Honda motorcycles why their sales fell off a cliff. It's because their buying audience collapsed.
Along with being the previous largest generation of all time to hit the US economy, the Boomers also created more wealth than any other generation of our time. That wealth shift - along with the surging impact of Generation Y - the new largest generation to every hit our economy - is set to make for significant surprises ahead. Listen in and let us know what you think.
Ah yes, 10 days into summer and we are already hearing the call of the Black Swan. Who on Earth knows what it will be next. Brexit is in line, the Fed rate hike or not is here too. How about China? Wasn't that the monster of the week recently?
The bottom line: pray for a summer swoon. Yes, that's right - pray for one. Why? History tells us that, given the fact we are a mere 3% from all-time highs, every single one of them have been opportunities at lower prices.
Listen in and let us know what you think!
When I was a kid, my early years were focused on sailing the oceans. I learned much about life, people - and markets - as we sailed race after race - winning most. Amazingly, 40 years later - all the lessons still serve us well. The two most important for markets and generational wealth-building:
1) Stay focused on the current - not the surface of the water and
2) Keep a steady hand on the wheel during storms.
Listen in and let us know what you think!
Masked by all the hype, soundbite, headline and worry-a-second hysteria we seem to now deem as normal for markets and investing, the Fed data this week shows we have NEVER been richer. That's right, in all of time before us, inclusive of every single element we fear today, having already happened, US wealth - per capita, nominal and per household, has never been greater. Those who have suffered are often those who have panicked about the future.
Face it folks, we can wish it away if we like, but our demographics are set in stone....and they will last for decades. Not weeks, not in a quarterly earnings report, not missing by a penny....but decades of time.
Think demographics - not economics.
We are in great shape. Listen in and let us know what you think!
When I was two years into the biz - in 1984 - during a particularly stressful week, someone I learned to respect greatly over time told me this: "Kid, there is a lot less to trading than meets the eye."
He was correct. Our mind is what gets in the way along the path. It is not the market that fools us - it is us who fools us.
Stay focused, be patient. Our best days are STILL ahead. Listen in and let us know what you think!
The jobs report on Friday suddenly drove the experts to suggest that the economy was running on empty. Nothing could be further from the truth. We need to realize the difference between 30-day reports which will change dynamically at times and 30-year trends which cannot be interrupted. There will always be ebbs and flows in the monthly and weekly views. Long-term investors must recognize these issues as opportunistic and not something to fear. Listen in and let us know what you think.
There is an age-old quest for investing with no risk. There is no such thing. Money for nothing is only a line in a song - not a secret pathway through the investing world that only a few know about. Make sure you understand one fact about investing: If you expect a return, you will be taking risk. Said another way, you want no risk, a) you are not investing and b) you cannot expect a return. Once these facts are accepted, the emotional triggers that "risk" causes in the minds of most investors will dissipate. Listen in and let us know what you think.
As covered before, summer swoons are positive - not something to be afraid of. The issue we might want to consider is this: After all the mess of the last 18 months, with the market basically going nowhere, the surprise might be that we break out to new highs sooner than expected. Listen is for more.
Ok so we made it through the sell in May process and now need to make sure we are aware of the next issue the press will make a big deal of - summer.
Lets hope for a summer swoon to keep the fear in place and the values solid for long-term investors.
Here we cover the hot topics before the Memorial Day Break. The GDP revision was upward as expected - listen in for more.
Far too many investors have been led astray by bogus definitions of our "paltry" economic growth. In reality, since 2012, we have added $2 TRILLION to our annual GDP. Do we really want to call that a failed recovery? Before you assume the media has it right, we have NEVER created $2 Trillion in new GDP in a span of 42 months - in the history of our country.
The good news is that our best days are still ahead....hold on.
Bottom line: now that the entire world is fretting over deflation and cheap oil, we suggest to you that inflation is coming back. Before you get frightened, inflation is a good thing. Most assuredly one would want inflation over deflation. Listen in and let us know what you think.
In this episode we cover the very dynamic economic issues powering ahead for the US - in a positive way - under all the negative chatter in the headlines. Learn this: the news is designed to get your attention. The media cannot get your attention with good news - so they scare you with bad news. Be unafraid. Participate in this set of ideas instead: Generation Y is going to change the world. Most did not recognize this in the early 80's when the Baby Boom was set to explode into our economic system. Gen Y is bigger, better, smarter. They have just begun. It is the first inning of a new ballgame. Just like when the shuttle took off - T-30 seconds and counting was always an exciting time before lift-off. Stay patient and focused. Happy Memorial Day weekend.
Well what do you know, economic data are improving in all fronts: housing, retail, incomes, profits, GDP, industrial production and durable goods orders. Focus on the doom-sayers at your peril. The world is not ending. Indeed, thanks to Generation Y and the Barbell Economy, we have a rocket ship getting ready to leave the launch pad. Explosive surprises are ahead as 86 million kids begin to grow up and impact the world in wonderful ways - all from the US economy platform. Listen in and let us know what you think.
For years the audience has been taught to ret over "the Fed Minutes." It is as though we have simply added new trash to the pile of things to worry about. In the long run, they mean little, if anything. Having started in this business in 1982, I can confidently tell you that for the first 25 of those years, no one ever spoke about the Fed Minutes. In time we will find there is such a thing as too much stuff to read and "be aware of." Investors need to embrace that our best days are ahead of us. Stay focused on that and listen in - let us know what you think.
In the most recent minutes from the Fed, there was "shock" that we may indeed face another 25 basis point rate hike in June. Here is the difference this time though: less than 48 hours later, the market was higher than where it was before the minutes were released. This is a character shift that we suspect will be very important a couple years down the road - and in a good way for investors focused on the long-term horizon.
Like the shuttle when the countdown hits T minus 5 seconds and the massive engine ignites, many do not understand the powers which are brewing under the surface of the US economy. We are the only western developed economy with the demographic benefits unfolding. Don't get too bored - it takes time - but the trends last 30 years.
As investors viewing the long-term horizon, sometimes one needs to stand tall to see over all the weeds. Higher altitude viewing provides a better perspective often in this age of push button reactions. Listen in and let us know what you think.
Too many investors are reaching hasty conclusions which always lead them to believe the end of life as we know it somehow near. Once monster after another comes and goes.
There is no Apocalypse awaiting us all. Indeed, we will set records in GDP output this year - like we have for every year other than two in recent decades (2008/2009).
Our economy is heading into growth stages most do not understand. Listen in and let us know what you think.
Many times in history we have seen a pause that lasts a couple years. This one is going on 19 months old and the markets have gone nowhere fast. Lots of churn - lots of trepidation - lots of overblown fears and angst. In the end, we are not as bad off as feared. We need to simply recognize this as a lunch stop on the way up a very large mountain. The coming summer swoon lookout rule? Look for opportunity for long-term growth as too many will remain afraid. Listen in and let us know how you feel.
In this episode we review a few current stats - and ask this question: Are we really not seeing the obvious? We are at record high GDP - even as we watch a pause in the pace of growth.
How many times have the experts excuses of the moment for certain doom been proven wrong. How many times have we been told something was bad for us - only to see that the opposite scenario is also bad? It is was not so sad it would be funny. Listen in and let us know what you think.
Even though we have suggested May and the summer doldrums could work against the market and cause another swoon (to take advantage of), we stand by the idea that the bear argument continues to ring hollow. In this episode we stand back for a larger view of the data and reconsider one thought: it's better than the masses understand. That said, patience will be tested again before we are out of the cloud of dust.
Too many think they can be ready for the next surprise. It's called a surprise for a reason - no one sees it coming. Black Swans are the same by the way - hence, they are impossible to see before they arrive which is their definition. Here is the kicker though: Not everything "out of left field" is going to be negative.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
Too much confusion, too much data, too many opinions, too much stress, so little time. This has historically led to poor decisions for many. Let's step way back and see the bigger picture with a far more productive perspective.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
We have watched the markets move to and fro for the last 18 - almost 19 months now, effectively going nowhere. Indeed, over the last 12 months, all major averages are in the red - year to date - they are they are teetering between red and green, depending on the week. Walking in quicksand is what we call it. We have had periods like this before - the mid-80's and '94-'95. Both looked bleak - both were a pause. Both were as frustrating and tense as we find ourselves now. But, neither turned into a recession - both in fact, were turned out to be foundations from which we launched the next growth wave.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
Earnings seasons are almost always the same in recent years - full of stress and anxiety about results - from the last 90 days. In this episode we cover just how much can be overlooked when we think in constant terms of "worst-case scenario" on nearly every data point released.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
As we approach May, one can already hear the chatter about "sell in May and go away". If it only worked so easily. History tells us we are far better off using the summer swoons to build upon, rather than run from.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
In this episode we cover the lengthy earnings parade which happens 4 times a year. The process has become cumbersome as the media and headline machine drives volatility.
Make sure to listen in and let us know what you think. The real earnings "recession" will end as soon as we round-trip the energy sector implosion and sector adjustment.
In this episode we review why the earnings season may give us another wave down to take advantage of in building for the surprising upside in our future as Generation Y takes the reins.
In this episode we cover the aspects of the slower growth GDP readings as well as all the reasons we should not be shocked. After-all, once you listen in, it will be easy to recognize why we have this tepid economic growth. It's a combination of fear, anxiety and fiscal policies which are stifling the ability for business to expand. Lopping billions off the top of the growth we are seeing for social program investments nullifies most of the efforts.
Today we consumer information about our economy based on tools and measuring sticks used in the 50's and 60's. Do we really think we are getting the best data?
Think of it this way. Imagine you needed a brain scan to see if you had a tumor. Imagine further that it was very important to get the best data - a real snapshot of the "truth." Then imagine that your doctor rolls in a machine from the 50's and 60's to do your brain scan today. How would you feel?
Would you feel confident in the results? Or, would you want a second opinion with a better machine?
In the media frenzy an investor goes through each day to consumer information, the larger events are often overlooked. In my day we called it "missing the boat". Today, in Generation Y terms, with rapid expansion of technology, sure to remake all that we "know", it is more like "missing the Drone...."
Listen in and let us know what you think!
As spring break ends for kids and families, we are back to the grind of markets. Next up for the media" First quarter earnings which are now fully expected to be ugly (they won't be). Then, right after that parade is done - let's be prepared for the onslaught of the "sell in May and go away fear" mongering.
Use sell in May dips and hoped for summer swoons as additional spots this year to take advantage of unrelenting fears - overblown again.
Remember, fear and values hunt together.
Hey, it's April Fools Day and a review of some of the foolish things we allow to seep into our brains from media headlines is indeed funny when viewed from afar.
Make no mistake - we are living through a period of fog right now as the baton is being passed from the Baby Boom to Generation Y. The upside is significant in the years ahead. Change is taking hold - which is being masked by the fog.
Stay focused and think long-term.
In this episode we cover the various latest media headlines and then think through just how comical they can become when read from a larger perspective.
In the end, being too short-term will blind investors to the much larger picture unfolding for the US economy. Think late 70's / early 80's.
Things are going to be very surprising ahead.
In this episode we will redefine the garbage fed to the investing audience by the media. Our system is working just fine thanks - and the fears driven by media blasts are just there to take your eye off the ball.
As long-term investors we must work diligently to stay focused on the long-term horizon. Too often, the simplest elements are overlooked. To gain the advantage of long-term investing growth figures so often quoted, one must invest through it all...the good, the bad and the ugly.
A simple but unsettling title causes one to recognize the long-term aspect we must retain in our thinking.
Yes, we are being told to "fear" an "earnings recession" today. We have covered this for months as the markets have idled in place for 18 months. We suspect we have another quarter or two to go - and the "recession" will be done.
Until then, don't let headlines put you off track. After all, history shows for a couple hundred years that the next 100% move in markets - is up.
The peak oil theory was wrong back in 2008 when oil hit $147 a barrel and the world trembled. The end of oil is almost as incorrect today - though its power has changed forever.
Oil won't go to $10 - probably not even $20. Instead we stand by what we have stated for 18 months. A new price range between $30 and $80 for decades to come - give or take a few bucks.
In the end, oil will slowly become a relic as Generation Y births new power sources and wind, solar, battery and hydrogen take more and more of the market in coming years.
Almost immediately after the March Fed meeting, the FedHeads began speaking to talk up the next hawkish point of view. Why? They were worried about sounding too dovish in the March meeting statement. Huh?
What happened to the good ole' days where there was little transparency and they did not care. Investors were better because they worried about less.
Listen in and let us know!
In this episode we cover the idea that "news" immediately takes away the power of surprise. The more significant issues one would want to fret over in the markets would be surprises. Hence, by definition, we cannot plan for them. Thinking that something which has been covered for months (take your pick in the menu of fears) is somehow going to "surprise" the market is a waste of time - and often leads to dreadful errors in investment planning.
Look to left field we always say - and remember, not all surprises are bad ones.
Too many are fretting over this massive movement over the last few years of public companies borrowing money in the bond market in order to buyback shares. The pessimists say it is rigging earnings. Not.
If you are a CFO and you do not create an engineered plan to take advantage of fear in the bond market keeping rates historically low and hatred for stocks keeping shares undervalued - you will find yourself fired.
There is a better outcome - and it is a process which has unfolded for decades, through all economic cycles.
Listen in and let us know.
Since the tragedy of 9/11, the masses have redefined the term "bad". Almost everything is bad now. We have created a new addiction - to fear, stress and angst. If we have nothing to fret over - we find something - we create it if need be.
The security blanket of fear keeps us on an emotional DefCon 4 nearly 'round the clock.
The problem? We have created an Apocalypse Now turns into an Apocalypse Later environment.
Unhealthy indeed.
Listen in and let us know.
In this episode we cover the likely pause the markets are setting themselves up for in recent days. With the ECB letting guns blaze on their growth push, the markets have likely anticipated same for a bit now. As such, we should not be surprised to see another effort to test where this stabilization effort will really play out.
Even as the averages are making a strong effort to take back part of the ugly start of 2016, the internals remain damaged. This should not be feared but taken advantage of instead. Long-term investors can find value as others crank up fear levels again.
Listen in and see what you think.
Here we cover the very comical shift seen in recent days.
Recall that a few years ago, we were told that high oil prices were bad for us - and so was a weak dollar. We were told that China would rule the world as their economy overtook that of the US. We find ourselves in exactly the opposite spot today - and it is all bad for us again. Cheap oil - Bad. Strong dollar - Bad. Weak China - Bad.
Listen in for more laughs that trip up far too many investors in the long-run.
In this episode we cover the old but true facts on media and markets. The news always follows price. Bad days are followed by realistic, believable and "correct" headlines. Likewise on good days. The public is left with the assumption that someone knows all these answers. Nothing could be further from the case. The end of the world has come and gone dozens of times since the '08/'09 Great Recession and market setbacks. Fear is deeply seeded.
Listen in and get a sense of what Warren tells us all often: "In the short-term, the market is a voting machine. In the long-term it is a weighing machine."
In this episode we cover the process of spin. The spin the media gives to any financial or economic news. When studied and seen from a larger point of view, one quickly recognizes the nature of spin.
It is when dynamically opposite reports produce the same reported - and dire - outcome, key focus being the latter.
It is all dire - it is all dark, it is all fear-driven.
Listen in and lets start taking advantage of the chaos.
In this episode we review how and why problems are often misunderstood and our reactions to same show too many get lost in the short-term maze forsaking an understanding of this: The problems we fear are the exact same economic hurdles which cause us to move forward when and as we solve them.
Listen in - and feel better.
In this episode we cover the bubble everyone has missed. It is the process of doomsaying which has been so far overdone we have lost track of ourselves in the gloom. And yet, in a world as afraid as investors were nearly 10,000 points ago on the DOW, we have never had as much wealth as we have today.
Listen in and make sure you do not get snookered into believing in the latest bubble!
Our very best days are ahead.
In this episode we have highlighted how far we have come in summer of 2008 when we were terrified of crude oil as it his $148/barrel. The experts were only so kind to tell us how bad that was for our collective future - and we prayed for lower prices - right?
Today we have what we wished for - and yet we are told to fear that as well. Foolishness indeed. Listen in and find out more about how the best days are still ahead.
The last signs of a corrective window in time usually begin showing themselves when everyone decides to be a market-timer. "I can sell now, stop the pain and buy back cheaper" is the theory. One problem? It never happens. Listen in to find out why.
We have spent years being afraid since the '08/'09 global financial setbacks. Our fears are collectively evident with over $8 Trillion now in the bank. There is more ini this episode to give you a sense of what value has been created in the fear.
Windows of corrective market action always feel pretty tough. In this episode we walk you through those emotions and just how costly they can become over time. This hidden costs of fear can be surprising.
Along with all the fear, this resting bull market has no more bulls. In this episode we talk about how sentiment is down on all fronts. Down to levels now seen in years. What has it meant during those other historical times matching todays readings? It has meant a lot for long-term investors. Listen in.
In this episode we take the listener back in time and permit a review of fearful times - allowing one to see what the cost of fear really becomes over time.
In this episode we cover the aspects of emotions, markets and headlines in order to help the listener understand that it is never the big stuff that we all know about which catches us by surprise...it is the out of left field event which trips us all up. Remember Black Swans are unknown events. Speaking of them repeatedly negates the Black Swan fears.
In this episode we thought we would play a joke on ourselves and live a projected experience about the news headlines 5 years from now. Join us for some fun.
In this episode we review how history teaches us that what we think is obvious in markets, tends to be so for just a fleeting moment in time. Knowing this is advance can be helpful in side-stepping times when so many others suffer through knee-jerk reactions and their consequences.
This episode covers the age old practice of predicting the end of the world. It has been practiced for thousands of years. The good news? It has not happened yet.
Let's make sure we are not surprised by tomorrow's headlines. We can almost bet what they will be!
Taking action is tough after market gyrations - but history suggests this is where we get our better deals over the long-run.
This episode helps the listener visualize the very beneficial model currently defining the US economy's demographics. The two largest generations of all time bracket us - providing significant tailwind to many sectors.
In this episode we cover the underlying reasons for what is often described as our "subpar" recovery? It is not the economy - it is people, emotions and inaction. Listen in and let us know what you think!
In this episode we catch the listener up on the mess in the headlines. We highlight how we need to look beyond these events, like we did for Greece, the Bird Flu and Ebola patients. It is all about "what's next"
In this episode we review what is likely being set for markets as the masses once again become irrational. History suggests these periods are to be embraced as opportunity - not something to run from!
We hope you enjoy.
In this episode we cover the review of where we started the summer - and how the "correction" has un folded right on time. We also cover the foolishness of fretting over China - it is a benefit not a curse. Enjoy.
Here we speak of underlying themes that repeat throughout the processes of building real wealth over time. You will recognize some of the greats.
In this episode we speak of emotions and what the tough trade is all about - more importantly why the tough trade is most valuable.
In this episode we cover how vital it is for the investor to stay focused on the BIGGER WAVES unfolding in our economic future. The little waves serve only to keep you off track...or worse.
We hope you enjoy. Let us know - text "biggerwaves" (all one word) to 33444. Thanks!
In this episode we review the important aspects of the "Greek Tragedy", sarcasm intended. The listener will hear why this is actually a good thing.
Let us know what you think, we always love to hear from you.
In this episode we cover the on-going trade range and the important tailwinds we want to focus upon as the usual summer doldrums unfold. Once we get past summer the tailwinds we note will become more prevalent and beneficial for long-term investors.
Listen in--and let us know what you think. We hope you enjoy.
In this episode - we cover "G-Day"...the day Greece missed their payments. The world will not end. Ignore the hype and further ignore the garbage associated with same.
Nothing in Greece will change the fact that millions and millions of new households will form here in the US for the next 3, 5 or even 10 years. The surprises to the upside are set to be significant.
Pray for a summer swoon to take advantage of....
In this episode we cover the summer market expectations as well as market rotation underway while the trade range continues.
We highlight the outflows driven by investor fear as well...matching the already paltry sentiment.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
In this episode we cover the latest staggering information released on investor sentiment. Seems the crowd feels as bad now as they did in March of 2009 - 11,000 DOW points ago! That's a lot of dog years by the way.
Listen in - we hope you find value as always. May your journey be grand and your legacy significant.
In this episode we cover the good news being missed by the mainstream press - after all, good news does not sell well. The focus is on the federal deficit and how rapidly it is falling as revenues are at record highs. The good news? As the presidential race gets into swing after the summer break, we can expect new chapter about cutting taxes and regulation. We think business - and markets - will like that chatter.
Listen in and we hope you enjoy.
In this episode we remind the listener how trade ranges work, what their purpose is and what history tells us about them. We also highlight the fact that the trade range we have been hemmed in by for the last 7 months is having its proper effect as market/investor sentiment falls to levels not seen for years. These are supportive for surprising upsides in the future given historical evidence.
This episode covers the reality behind the idea that Faith and Fear have many common traits - mostly that they both ask us to believe something we cannot yet see.
Will you continue to participate in the end of the world chatter?
Remember - it is elective. One can choose not to partake.
This episode covers just a few of the many myths which cloud the horizon for too many investors. Listen in for clues on what to ignore ahead.
We are so accustomed to hearing scary headlines these days, we have gone numb to the term "A Perfect Storm." In this episode we review just how many perfect storms there have been recently - and how useless (and expensive) it has been to fret over them.
This episode covers the emotional sensation present in all bull markets, especially those that hit all-time new highs.
That feeling of stepping off the edge of a cliff at new highs has been present since 1982 - when the DOW hit 1050 for the first time.
Imagine fearing all-time new highs at, say DOW 2,000.
Listen in and let us know what you think.
This episode covers the beginning (and normal) seasonal feeling of slowdown as summer begins and the markets grind to silence. Media hype will expand, volumes will fall, vacations will be the norm.
Pray for setbacks to take advantage of as long-term investors remain patient - as we have every summer since 1982. This one is unlikely to be much different.
As my son tells me: "Crickets". Stay patient and focused on the long-term horizon.
Listen in and let us know what you think!
This episode covers the latest data available in a review of the crowd's investor sentiment. The latest AAII poll is reviewed and we provide history of how significant this impact could be for future market action.
Listen in - we hope you find value.
May your journey be grand and your legacy significant.
In this episode, we prep the listener to understand the benefits lurking in the "summer doldrums". Investors must embrace the "tepid sentiment" we have in the public today - at record highs in the markets. After 30+ years, it is an extraordinarily odd set of events....and history suggests it is bullish for the future.
The crowd only "feels better" about markets at higher prices - not lower prices. Listen in and we hope you enjoy!
In this episode we provide insights to the listener of the mechanics of short selling, what it is for, how it unfolds and the mechanics which can lead to the nightmare we describe.
Listen in and we hope you enjoy.
May your journey be grand and your legacy be significant.
This episode will help first-time listeners understand the best ways to gain value from the resources provided.
May your journey be grand and your legacy significant
We often get asked the same question no matter where we travel to see clients: "Mike, when is the market going to crash next?" This episode will help you understand why "Plan First" makes this question moot. Listen in! We hope you enjoy.
May your journey be grand and your legacy significant.
One of the most expensive errors investors make over time is to repeatedly do battle with their own emotions. We have found that a misunderstanding of risk and its existence is the core driver of emotionally poor responses to market events - which almost always cause losses to the crowd. In this episode we will help you understand that we must not fear that all investment carries risk - no matter what. Managing the risk is the key element to focus upon. Accepting the existence of risk tends to greatly lessen the emotional triggers when it shows itself....and it will show itself all the time.
This episode covers a broad view of how we need to address the wealth building process. Time and long-term horizons are the strength and foundation of all successful wealth building. Listen in and let us know what you think! Thanks
This episode covers the many benefits ahead as the US economy finds itself in a unique, yet still misunderstood, set of circumstances: Two major economic growth drivers for the next 20-30 years....The Baby Boom for some sectors and Gen Y for other sectors. Listen in and see what you think...
This episode reviews the details of a trick often triggered in investors' minds as the markets gyrate. During especially difficult times, we excuse ourselves from selling the lows because we convince ourselves that at some point in the future, we will become fortune tellers and "know" when the coast is clear. A very expensive habit indeed. Listen in.
This session digs into the idea that the crowd makes errors all the time. Long-term investors can take advantage of these events. As Charlie Munger said, "If people weren't often so wrong, we would not be so rich."
The idea is to begin to understand the errors of the masses - and simply try to make fewer of the same mistakes. These are some of our views and lessons from highlights of the last 30 years and the themes we have seen repeated time and time again.
The theme here is being able to position ones mindset to take advantage of the public, crowd-think, emotional errors over time. As Charlie Munger stated well, "If people weren't often so wrong, we would not be so rich."
This is a piece we did on the most expensive words we have heard uttered by investors over three decades. It's never been this bad is a phrase you want to be on the lookout for - often.
Secular Waves are always moving through the economies of the world. The US is at a unique fork in the road if you will as it relates to generational and demographic issues. We call these secular waves as they will be impacting various parts of the economy for many, many years to come. Our intent here in this episode is to help the investor understand what those waves are and how to understand where they are headed. We hope you find value.