Top Traders Unplugged: Recent Episodes
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:39 – What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 – Industry performance update
10:17 – New times for bonds
14:37 – The issue is always in the details
19:02 – What is driving markets at the moment?
22:36 – The perspective on treasuries is changing
26:34 – Trend followers are going crypto
29:22 – Does crypto make sense in trend following?
30:47 – Where are we in the risk cycle?
34:57 – How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage
38:16 – Does “perfect information” exist?
43:27 – A kind and a wicked environment
45:56 – Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics
48:50 – Get your position size right or go bankrupt
50:31 – Trailing PE – the secret sauce of successful analysts?
55:18 – How narrative impacts the stock market
58:37 – Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens
01:01:26 – Trend following – an unpredictable alpha?
The post Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:14 – Introduction to Carola Binder
03:20 – How did she approach her research?
07:55 – What does inflation historically mean?
11:19 – How the view on paper money has changed over time
16:25 – How the role of the Fed has evolved historically
22:35 – How gold has impacted the
24:17 – Controlling paper money – advancing democracy or centralizing power?
29:16 – Is 2% inflation the wrong target?
35:27 – Incorporating asset prices into central bank decision making
40:29 – How does Binder measure inflation expectations?
47:10 – Has inflation expectations risen since the Covid19 period?
49:57 – Does the high governmental debt imply a high inflation period ahead?
The post Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today’s Economy ft. Carola Binder appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:01:05 – What has caught our attention recently?
03:17 – Dark times ahead for Europe?
06:26 – An analysis of the election
11:46 – Niels' thoughts on the election outcome
14:58 – Alan's thoughts on the election outcome
18:11 – A global macro perspective
28:00 – Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?
31:39 – Industry performance update
37:19 – Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?
37:33 – Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?
41:56 – Is Goldman Sachs changing their strategy?
48:38 – The role of trend following in an unpredictable market
53:45 – How systematic investing has become integral in portfolio construction
57:54 – Systematic – an overlooked word
59:21 – The mystery paper – a teaser
The post Post Election – Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:25 – Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 – Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 – How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 – Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 – Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 – What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 – The refunding – Miran's expectations
27:26 – The state of the labour market
32:48 – How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?
34:21 – What is plausible range for the neutral rate?
37:07 – Is there a better way to run policy?
40:42 – The economic impact of the election outcome
45:54 – The challenges of regulatory policy
48:57 – Who will be the Treasury Secretary?
50:14 – Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?
53:49 – The outlook for fixed income
56:07 – Geopolitical concerns
57:37 – Advice for other investors
The post Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:01:13 – What has caught our attention recently?
03:30 – Industry performance update
04:48 – Andrew's perspective on the last few months
11:11 – Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event
16:49 – Picking the right managers
19:57 – A Hunger Games mentality
26:53 – Different products for different market segments
33:31 – Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?
43:20 – What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds
46:33 – Will replicators become more prominent?
53:49 – Tell me what you love
57:24 – Bonds are like the Voldemort of asset allocation
The post Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:10 – Introduction to Jason Furman
04:28 – The state of the economy
04:42 – Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
06:01 – Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
09:40 – The outlook for inflation
12:34 – A move in the right direction?
14:34 – Is the neutral rate a useful concept?
17:35 – The risk of being too sensitive to current data
21:05 – Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?
22:28 – Is the economy too complicated to forecast?
23:44 – Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?
26:46 – Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits
28:29 – Has the Treasury managed the situation right?
31:34 – Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?
34:46 – Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?
36:32 – A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?
37:57 – Is the Fed in danger?
39:24 – Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?
40:54 – Productivity – reasons to be optimistic?
43:57 – Is AI a threat to employment?
45:25 – Furman's perspective on the industrial policy
49:33 – Are we going too far in the wrong direction?
51:06 – China's influence on the global economy
54:05 – The outlook of economical growth
55:38 – Is Europe in trouble?
57:12 – Advice for other investors
The post Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:57 – What has caught our attention recently?
05:55 – Should trend followers lower their horizon?
09:26 – The AI CTA's are being tracked
10:37 – An economic Kayfabe
13:58 – Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?
18:44 – Industry performance update
20:33 – Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?
25:43 – Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?
26:13 – Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can you trade directional strategies but instead of using futures, use options. What are the pros and cons of this?
30:55 – Q2, Taylor: How do you think about position rebalancing, and the tradeoff between maintaining your desired risk allocation versus minimizing transaction cost?
34:22 – Q3, Richard: “Position Inertia”, a method of avoiding frequent small trades by widening the target to 10% above and below the desired position. Have you considered varying this parameter depending on the estimated trading costs of the instrument?
36:01 – Q3.1 Richard: I currently use a rolling 10 year window of weekly returns to forecast correlations between futures instruments as you suggest in a blog post in 2020. Do you think there would be any value in applying an exponential smoothing to the correlation forecasts?
41:13 – Q4 Michael: How do you monitor that your systems are runnings normally intra-day, without checking the performance?
43:48 – Q5 Richard: How to dynamically allocate capital between different strategies in a live systematic system, given dozens of strategies, all with changing performance over time.
45:33 – Q6: Cloud: Are there any ways or optimizations to pick the right strategies and right instruments (profitable)?
47:38 – Is “less is more” applicable when it comes to market selection?
59:26 – The promises and pitfalls of replication strategies
01:13:30 – A mixed up narrative – do they truly replicate performance?
01:20:00 – What is up for next week?
The post The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:30 – Introduction
03:59 – Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis
06:34 – Can trading be taught?
08:50 – The story behind the trading rules
12:32 – What characterises Eckhardt Trading?
13:44 – How did their perception of risk change over the years?
22:01 – Why they focus on short term trading
27:25 – How they use volatility in their trading
32:49 – Do they utilize other methods than trend following?
34:05 – Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?
40:26 – How they control overfitting and underfitting
45:37 – How they use “the gauntlet” to test systems
49:12 – How many markets do they trade and why?
53:57 – Why they don't trade single stocks
56:28 – Their view on replication strategies
01:05:23 – Evaluating the success of systems
01:08:02 – What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?
01:08:47 – The future of trend following
01:11:11 – Criticise ideas, not people
The post The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:01:06 – What has caught our attention recently?
04:01 – What is going on with Danske Commodities?
06:29 – Energy traders are the new star athletes
07:47 – Industry performance update
09:55 – How has 2024 treated us so far?
13:58 – The implications of major regime transitions
18:33 – What made Katy write her paper, “Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation”?
24:22 – How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?
29:02 – How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation between stocks and
bonds?
33:27 – Katy's thoughts on the large dispersion between managers this year
36:44 – Can you use carry trading with the SG Trend Index?
39:48 – Timing trends is a fool's game
42:31 – Bill Eckhardt is coming on the podcast next week!
43:35 – The outlook for trend following
46:42 – How do trend following strategies perform in different interest rate environments
52:15 – Do investors agree with the findings of the Quantica paper?
55:31 – Are investors disappointed about the trend following performance?
01:00:40 – What is up for next week?
The post SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:27 – Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 – Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 – Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 – The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 – A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 – A commodity catalyst – reflation incoming?
28:46 – Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 – A fiscal crisis in the U.S?
40:32 – The economic challenges that France faces
43:09 – The state of the European economy
47:20 – Welfare states are falling apart
49:48 – The U.S. election – how will it impact investors?
54:00 – How Trump would handle the current global conflicts
56:59 – Trump interfering with the Fed
59:26 – A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?
01:00:05 – Still bullish on emerging markets?
The post China’s Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:40 – Our thoughts go to Florida
03:39 – A rough time for trend following
08:39 – Industry performance update
12:14 – Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs
23:38 – Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following
32:33 – Setting limits in your trade following strategy
40:47 – What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following
01:06:22 – What is up for next week?
The post From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:03:02 – Introduction to Amy Flikerski
08:02 – How they think about manager selection
09:28 – How do they categorize their strategies?
11:40 – How they assess their investment objective
13:07 – How they manage risk
14:29 – How the global macro environment affects them
15:41 – How they manage a billion dollar portfolio
17:11 – How the hedge fund industry have evolved
19:13 – Is there a place for multi-manager pods?
20:47 – A war for talent
22:34 – How they approach internal vs external management
26:34 – How is their team set up?
28:48 – What are they looking for when assessing managers?
30:54 – Making allocation to emerging managers
33:10 – What characterize their managers?
34:48 – Assessing the scalability of a strategy
37:29 – What makes a good allocator
39:23 – Advice for independant hedge funds
41:40 – What types of early stage managers do they look out for?
42:55 – How they approach their portfolio construction
45:25 – How they manage fund constraints
46:48 – What is their typical ticket size?
47:31 – Reaching the right level of transparency
49:46 – Characteristics of a succesful discretionary manager
51:14 – Managing drawdowns
52:56 – Their decision-making process
55:58 – How they approach commodities
57:33 – Advice for other managers
01:00:18 – Advice for people coming into the industry
The post Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:01:17 – Industry performance update
05:36 – Seasonality in markets
17:49 – Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?
21:44 – A dangerous path for Chinese assets
25:36 – A structural downtrend in inflation?
35:30 – Is the market looking through the rate cuts?
39:37 – Trump vs. Harris – how will it impact markets?
46:19 – A global conflict perspective
50:40 – How the election might impact commodities
52:06 – Migration policy and its effect on inflation
53:57 – How markets might trade right after the election is over
57:13 – Dangerous periods ahead?
The post Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:03:02 – How carry trading has evolved since “The Rise of Carry” was published
06:04 – How carry is related to the Covid19 crisis
09:12 – Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 – Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 – SMP500 – the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 – Short term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 – VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 – What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 – A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?
45:09 – How could you make money from a carry unwind?
49:13 – Will we ever get away from the Fed Put?
53:47 – A new way of treating the SMP500
56:33 – How the carry regime impacts the economy
59:15 – The impact of geopolitics on carry
The post The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:01:03 – What has caught our attention recently?
04:18 – Industry performance update
09:58 – Who is responsible for the rise of carry?
16:30 – The markets are the real voting machine
18:34 – Reviewing Powell's speech
23:39 – The KuU framework
29:13 – The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts
38:15 – The flaws of systematic managers
47:05 – Working with the 3 C's
57:13 – “What was it like to be in a bear market?”
01:01:42 – The pros and cons of buying an index
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:14 – Catching up
05:00 – What has happened since we last spoke?
12:58 – The state of the metal sector
22:06 – Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading
28:41 – Getting the timing right
42:51 – It's all about volatility
44:38 – Playing the long game
47:46 – Are investors positioning wrong?
52:40 – A carry trade bubble
54:29 – Why are many investors bullish on copper?
01:01:12 – Why are copper prices going down?
01:05:13 – Demographics – a bizarre kind of beast
01:08:40 – An over-demand of assets in China?
01:12:54 – Thoughts on the recent decline in oil
01:15:44 – What is the current level of the U.S strategic reserve?
The post The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:42 – What has caught our attention recently?
05:04 – Draghi's vision for Europe
08:09 – Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation
14:02 – Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds
19:58 – The big macro picture
27:33 – Is monetary policy still loose?
29:11 – Industry performance update (Finally!)
34:11 – The carry unwind
41:20 – Are people underestimating trend following?
44:51 – Are markets becoming less efficient?
48:30 – Why higher volatility funds may be good for your portfolio
56:52 – A historical perspective on volatility
The post The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:07 – Introduction to Philipp Carlsson
03:08 – What motivated Carlsson to write his book?
05:13 – A framework for assessing macro risk
09:00 – How do we react to doomsayings?
11:18 – Covid19 – the perfect example of a false alarm
15:15 – The new area of tightness
18:27 – It is all about labour cost
23:46 – The deflationary power of technology
26:46 – The outlook of the labour market
32:22 – Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness
39:38 – What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?
43:26 – The difference between existential and tactical crises
46:56 – Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt
52:04 – Carlsson's outlook for the economy going forward
The post How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:01:18 – What has caught our attention recently?
02:59 – How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?
10:45 – Industry performance update
14:30 – Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?
21:00 – Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility
24:24 – Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital
31:22 – Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea?
39:05 – A deep dive into ETFs
48:52 – An example of a worst case scenario ETF
53:13 – Can't we just buy a CTA index?
59:29 – The best way to think about indices
01:07:41 – Turning a backtest into an index
The post Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “10 Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:12 – Introduction to Michael Howell
03:15 – Howell's framework for looking at markets
06:32 – How Asian central banks impact U.S equities
09:17 – Do different types of liquidity have different effects?
12:17 – The last 15 years from a liquidity perspective
18:19 – Is liquidity the driver of the bond yield moves?
23:08 – Why has the quantitative tightening not been more disruptive?
32:44 – Is a debt crisis in sight?
39:48 – Howell's advice for allocating assets
42:45 – What has caused the reversal of the Yen?
48:02 – How to distinguish between capital flows and hedging activity
49:44 – Why are the G10 currencies so stable?
51:18 – A risk point on the radar
52:23 – The implications of the shift towards private credit financing
55:02 – A favorable environment for risk assets?
59:15 – Is Howell skeptical about the Chinese currency?
01:00:11 – The outlook of the liquidity cycle
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Episode TimeStamps:00:49 – What has been on our radar recently?
04:17 – Industry performance update
08:07 – Just another August?
12:35 – Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?
14:54 – Has replication become obsolete?
25:14 – Andrew's guidelines for correlation
31:56 – Staying in sync
35:47 – How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies
43:42 – A world premiere!
51:05 – An index madness
53:05 – Beware of the shiny new things
56:02 – How the new index works
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Episode TimeStamps:02:19 – What has changed since our last conversation?
07:29 – Signs of weakness?
09:31 – The key indicators of weakness
12:15 – Are we actually becoming more wealthy?
15:26 – Assessing the savings rate
17:02 – Berezin's model for analyzing the economy
20:04 – Is the lag kicking in now?
22:00 – Challenges in the banking system
24:37 – Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal support?
27:11 – Why Berezin thinks the stock market is 50% overvalued
29:26 – Are AI companies in trouble?
35:51 – The long term economic impacts of AI
37:46 – Boosts in inventories: A tipping point to the economy?
40:17 – Berezin's outlook for Fed policy
42:47 – Rate cuts = recession?
45:42 – The state and outlook of the U.S housing market
47:25 – An unsustainable budget outlook
50:44 – Will we see a strengthening of the dollar?
52:19 – An upside for the yen
53:53 – A collective cutting of rates
55:06 – Has globalization run its course?
56:40 – The structural outlook for commodities
58:51 – What should you focus on?
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Episode TimeStamps:01:01 – What has been on our radar recently?
04:43 – What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?
11:48 – Industry performance update
18:24 – The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting
33:42 – Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data
36:31 – How collective trader behaviour influences price movement
48:03 – How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement
52:47 – Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio
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Episode TimeStamps:00:47 – What has been on our radar recently?
02:15 – Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies & policies?
05:37 – Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?
08:57 – Industry performance update
17:19 – Connecting the dots
23:35 – Bonds – Why are they Behaving Badly?
27:59 – Conditional return distribution – what and why?
30:04 – Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle
35:29 – The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed
42:42 – Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry
47:29 – Did the VIX really hit 65?
55:34 – Sticking to the process
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Episode TimeStamps:02:37 – Introduction to John Jackson
05:40 – A changed environment for hedge funds?
08:42 – Best strategies for a high rates environment
11:50 – Are clients stuck in the past?
13:40 – A framework for building hedge fund allocations
18:13 – More art than science
19:15 – Define your objectives clearly
20:51 – A multi-strat dominance – pros and cons
25:14 – Getting comfort in your hedge fund strategies
28:32 – How to incorporate diversifying strategies in your portfolio
30:48 – How Jackson approaches return expectations
33:13 – Typical number of managers
34:00 – The role of hedge funds
35:44 – Their process of selecting managers
38:56 – What makes an opportunity compelling to them?
43:28 – How they trade in the systematic space
45:10 – Quant managers – are they any different?
47:08 – AI and machine learning in the quant space
49:25 – How important is transparency?
50:54 – Their process of deselecting and changing their manager roster
54:07 – Identifying talents in the manager space
56:18 – How much capital is needed to launch a macro fund?
57:52 – The pros and cons of committees
01:00:21 – Getting through the committee
01:02:12 – Advice for other investors
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Episode TimeStamps:01:45 – What has been on our radar recently?
03:49 – Industry performance update
05:37 – An eventful week
11:22 – Putting the market rotations into context
18:58 – How have trend following strategies started to change recently?
26:40 – How trend following performs according to data
29:03 – How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?
34:07 – Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?
45:07 – How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?
50:17 – Zero day options – part of the problem?
54:58 – The evolution of risk management
01:02:10 – A recap of this week's headlines
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Episode TimeStamps:02:18 – Introduction to Aswath Damodaran
03:30 – Nvidia – bullish or bearish?
04:47 – How AI will impact the economy
10:48 – How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks
14:36 – How to distinguish AI stocks from each other
17:58 – A sticky market
22:40 – How should you act to the AI boom as an investor?
31:07 – Are value investor becoming obsolete?
35:49 – What is the equity risk premium?
40:28 – How much equity risk premium is enough?
45:08 – Dealing with macro shocks and timing the markets
50:01 – Inflation and its impact on stocks
51:51 – Don't rely on the P/E ratio alone
53:08 – The link between GDP and earnings
54:31 – The importance of investing globally
57:35 – Can assets with no cash flows be valued?
58:27 – Managing the risk
01:01:56 – Advice for other investors
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Episode TimeStamps:01:44 – What has been on our radar recently?
03:38 – A surprise question for Cem
06:26 – Industry performance update
08:59 – How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?
14:59 – Suggestions for which volatility indices to use
16:35 – Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?
20:12 – Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?
24:19 – Trump 2.0 – better, faster, stronger?
34:30 – An unfathomable situation
38:38 – The mechanisms behind market moves
47:14 – More conflict incoming?
50:37 – What causes stress in the financial systems?
01:01:50 – The wobble is happening
01:05:51 – What is up for next week?
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Episode TimeStamps:02:09 – Introduction to Ernest Scheyder
03:11 – Why are lithium and copper so important?
05:44 – The outlook of the U.S lithium production
09:12 – Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production
17:26 – What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?
23:17 – Supply and demand in lithium
25:02 – The challenges of recycling batteries
31:07 – Is a fully circular economy even possible?
34:14 – The negative consequences of copper mining
39:19 – A part of the people
41:53 – The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S.
43:46 – Is outsourcing copper mining morally irresponsible?
47:25 – The challenges of attracting labour in the mining industry
52:00 – How did Scheyder approach the writing of his book?
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Episode TimeStamps:00:54 – If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?
03:17 – What has been on our radar recently?
06:20 – Bills = money?
09:59 – A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?
13:38 – Industry performance update
16:01 – Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??
26:10 – “I've never seen a bad backtest”
31:56 – Simplicity vs. complexity
35:26 – Stocks or bonds – what should you prefer?
40:18 – Why you should have trend following in your portfolio
48:50 – How to assess true macro economic risk
53:33 – Machine learning and AI in systematic trading
01:00:22 – The hot hand fallacy
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Episode TimeStamps:01:45 – The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy
10:29 – Inflation expectations and the Trump trade
18:38 – What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?
27:10 – What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation
34:16 – It's all about getting the distribution right
46:26 – Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election
51:20 – What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?
55:38 – Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?
01:02:31 – A “Golden” idea
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Episode TimeStamps:01:02 – What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 – How we utilize AI in our own work
09:14 – Price on fossil hit an all time high
09:54 – The FOMO narrative in investing
11:52 – Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election
19:50 – An unsustainable path
24:37 – Industry performance update
27:58 – Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?
34:25 – Fees – the big differentiator
38:46 – Key takeaway from the paper “Skew Spectrum”
48:20 – Paper on building a hedge fund allocation
01:00:34 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:10 – Introduction to Adam Posen
05:45 – Was it all about luck?
07:40 – Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?
12:06 – Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?
13:56 – The political pressure on central banks
16:48 – The challenges of inflation targeting
23:47 – A micro-managing nightmare?
29:50 – What are the most important factors for policy makers?
35:16 – The lags of monetary policy
39:47 – How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism
48:15 – Posen's view on the economy
51:07 – Are central banks inflating the debt away?
53:49 – A Fiscal crisis incoming?
01:00:10 – Artificial Intelligence – a game changer?
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Episode TimeStamps:00:56 – Introduction to Graham Robertson
03:40 – How Graham came across trend following
04:56 – Graham's observations in 2024 so far
08:03 – Is China becoming an easier market to trade?
09:01 – How to deal with uncomfortable markets
11:17 – Why April was an interesting month for trend followers
14:54 – A discussion on trend following performance
20:45 – Industry performance update
22:03 – How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies
26:37 – Rating the climate for interest in trend following
31:46 – Which regions or countries are most interested in trend following?
34:16 – Why ESG means different things to different strategies
38:05 – How much should investors allocate to trend following?
41:05 – How to change people's minds about trend following
43:59 – Changing the narrative in the trend following industry
47:28 – Man AHL's general approach to research
55:15 – Robertson's perspective on AI in the trend following industry
01:00:20 – A new approach to 60/40?
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Episode TimeStamps:02:07 – Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management
08:27 – Diving deep into their strategy
10:45 – What drives the alpha of the strategy?
15:41 – Understanding your investor base
18:07 – Understanding their correlation
19:31 – Thoughts on including international stocks
24:15 – Do they fully fund their portfolio?
27:52 – How they approach dividends
29:14 – Do they loan out stocks?
30:34 – Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?
32:36 – How many names do they have in their portfolio on the long side
33:12 – Dilution vs. concentration
37:15 – The impact of volatility drag
39:43 – Improving the experience of investing
42:01 – A compliment or full portfolio strategy?
45:57 – What are the most important lessons they have learned?
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Episode TimeStamps:00:59 – Industry performance update
06:30 – The outlook for volatility supply
09:01 – Braking the volatility cascade
11:47 – Is the Yen in trouble?
13:51 – Is bread becoming unreliable?
19:57 – When does it all end?
24:38 – What should you monitor as an investor?
27:46 – When will we begin to see increased risk?
33:09 – What will drive the increasing volatility?
35:10 – The election from a volatility perspective
42:46 – Volatility from a market pricing perspective
45:36 – How will a win for Trump impact the economy?
47:56 – Looking outside of the U.S.
53:06 – Similar volatility supply dynamics in Europe?
54:52 – Good times ahead for gold?
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Episode TimeStamps:02:22 – Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 – The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 – Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 – Putting the data together
18:16 – Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 – What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 – What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 – The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 – The state of physical policy
45:32 – The growth picture from a long term perspective
50:32 – The positive sides of inflation
53:17 – Book recommendations and advice for other investors
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Episode TimeStamps:01:23 – What has caught our attention recently?
03:00 – Industry performance update
05:32 – Reversions incoming?
07:06 – Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm
14:20 – Getting the speed right
17:37 – Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?
24:32 – Discussing the paper “Negative Crisis Beta” from Quantica
38:16 – Capping the beta
45:17 – The hidden market timing of CTAs
50:23 – The benefits of adding carry to your portfolio
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Episode TimeStamps:01:49 – Introduction to Robert Spalding
03:38 – What did General Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?
08:44 – Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?
10:33 – A visionary perspective
15:37 – TikTok – The ultimate weapon?
21:37 – Is the West as “bad” as China?
30:49 – How do the West compete on a level playing field against autocracy?
42:28 – Spalding's view on the conflict between China and Taiwan
54:29 – How hot can a cold war get?
58:31 – Is there no way back?
01:00:51 – The vulnerability of infrastructure and data
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Episode TimeStamps:00:26 – A quick talk on football (soccer)
02:09 – What has been on our radar recently?
05:26 – An update on Rob's portfolio?
09:37 – Industry performance update
12:07 – Q1, Steve: What are Rob's advice for systematic buying of put options as a tail risk strategy?
26:51 – Q2, Luis: Regarding how to use carry in your strategies when you roll from a contract to the next one
33:39 – A discussion on elections
38:36 – The U.S election – a perfect storm?
44:41 – Should you be cautious about the AI hype?
57:04 – Finding the right level of fees that investors should pay
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Episode TimeStamps:02:18 – Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein
05:52 – How did they learn about trend following?
14:18 – The perfect match?
15:12 – What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?
16:52 – What is causing dispersion in the trend following space?
19:32 – The dangers of overoptimization
23:00 – What are their definition of risk?
27:20 – Are more markets better?
33:21 – Their research process
37:18 – What is their smallest and least liquid market they trade?
39:01 – How they use synthetic markets in their trading
41:20 – Their considerations about cash equities
43:30 – Why are they trading the VIX index?
46:36 –* What is the outlook for trend following?
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Episode TimeStamps:01:04 – What has been on our radar recently?
04:03 – Industry performance update
07:50 – Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?
11:40 – Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system
14:47 – Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes
18:46 – How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies
41:17 – Is trend following threatened by AI?
51:39 – “ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?”
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Episode TimeStamps:02:05 – Introduction to Charles Duhigg
06:30 – Every conversation is a negotiation
09:21 – It takes two to tango?
11:09 – The importance of listening
13:42 – The magic of understanding each other
15:05 – What is stopping us from having deep connections?
18:40 – How to ask the right questions
23:18 – Advice for having meaningful conversations
28:02 – The business value of deep connections
31:27 – The importance of non-verbal communication
36:28 – How to match the mood of other people
38:48 – The role of identities in communication
42:23 – What does Duhigg means with “identity threat”?
47:48 – How does it apply online?
51:11 – Communication vs. manipulation
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Episode TimeStamps:00:44 – What has caught our attention recently?
03:04 – Is what we thought was “normal” Real Yields actually not normal?
09:30 – Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?
19:09 – How do CTAs react to the lower prices?
21:35 – Industry performance update
23:00 – Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?
32:36 – Let's share the trend following pie
40:38 – The disadvantages of the institutional world
43:56 – Why is the managed futures space not growing?
49:49 – A crazy story from Andrew
56:26 – Are low-cost offers killing the industry?
01:02:39 – The ETF costs dont add up?
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Episode TimeStamps:01:42 – What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?
04:24 – The secret to Bridgewaters success
07:17 – Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework
10:46 – The outlook for interest rates
15:31 – Is inflation here to stay?
20:48 – The outlook for asset allocation
25:48 – The role of demographics
30:04 – A collective memory
32:53 – Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio
36:37 – Elliott's approach to diversification
42:22 – How to get access to alternative markets
46:24 – What drove Elliott intro replication?
51:45 – Why the majority of investors are invested in the wrong way
57:15 – The state of the global exchange rate markets
01:00:44 – Are US stocks trading as Cem exptected into the June Opex?
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Episode TimeStamps:01:07 – What has been on our radar recently?
02:56 – Industry performance update
07:41 – Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space
13:40 – Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?
17:32 – Why include ETFs in your portfolio?
21:43 – Use cases for ETFs
25:00 – How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?
28:58 – Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?
32:01 – Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?
34:33 – The different paths into the ETF space
40:57 – How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products
43:30 – Should you consider fees when building ETF models?
47:32 – How to choose the right replicator
51:06 – How AI might affect the trend following industry
56:55 – A red card to AI?
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Episode TimeStamps:02:26 – Introduction to Garry Gerstle
05:50 – Understanding political order and neoliberalism
12:04 – How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?
20:06 – What will drive the new political order?
29:01 – How the West's approach to China has changed
36:19 – Do banks have too much power?
43:34 – Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?
47:24 – The 4 freedoms of neoliberalism
53:34 – The challenges of the technological evolution
01:02:16 – Thoughts on how the election might end up
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Episode TimeStamps:01:01 – What has been on our radar recently?
06:58 – Is OpenAI falling apart?
09:19 – U.K. and European Parliament elections – should investors care?
11:52 – What is neoliberalism?
12:54 – Unpacking the current global macro landscape
19:07 – Are central banks defeating their own purpose?
22:42 – Industry performance update
25:39 – What is going on with quant macro?
32:00 – Trend follower or quant macro fund – what is hardest to analyze?
34:39 – How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently?
37:43 – Any allocation to whiskey?
39:31 – Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha?
47:13 – Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay
49:46 – How multi-strategy funds achieve smooth return streams
01:00:09 – Multi-strat managers – contact us!
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Episode TimeStamps:02:16 – Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels
06:22 – Why haven't we seen higher productivity?
12:11 – What is the chance that productivity could increase?
17:36 – When can we expect productivity to increase?
19:51 – Will AI “steal” our jobs?
24:43 – How you can navigate in the AI trends as an investor
32:17 – Is it even possible for “normal” investors to benefit from AI?
35:26 – Is the energy transition a good investment?
40:51 – A new commodity or metal super cycle?
45:10 – Exploiting the commodity trends
48:12 – Is natural gas a good transition fuel?
52:01 – Why is Philippe so positive on gold?
56:48 – What are their inflation expectations?
01:02:19 – Challenging years ahead?
01:08:00 – Key takeaways from Niels
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Episode TimeStamps:00:39 – What has been on our radar recently?
06:59 – Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want…latest survey?
12:17 – Discussing the data
18:30 – Industry performance update
21:26 – Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?
25:08 – From multilateralism to bilateralism
29:42 – The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager
36:31 – The fallacy of consensus
40:23 – Using economic data as a trend follower
43:14 – Is price truth?
47:38 – VUCA – what, why and how?
54:50 – Applying VUCA to trend following
57:46 – Is trend following becoming too complicated?
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Episode TimeStamps:02:45 – Introduction to Richard Urwin
06:31 – A noticeable shift?
08:49 – What is Saranac's investment philosophy?
13:06 – Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator
18:07 – How confident are they in forecasts?
24:24 – Balancing competing forces
30:08 – How Saranac builds balanced portfolios
33:55 – Do they consider supply shocks in their portfolios?
40:00 – The dangers of pessimism
44:27 – Their approach to alternative assets and strategies
48:38 – Their perspective on high-risk managers
51:15 – Their manager selection process
55:06 – How does the current environment dictate investing?
58:13 – About Urwin's PhD on option pricing
01:02:40 – Advice for other allocators
01:05:16 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:00:52 – What has been on our radar recently?
12:36 – Industry performance update – how is May so far?
15:45 – New Ultimate Guide out now…How to get your Free copy!
16:38 – Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?
27:39 – Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?
35:19 – Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?
39:22 – Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?
46:54 – Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times
57:48 – What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?
59:09 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:34 – Introduction to Tad Fallows
12:38 – The risk appetite of Long Angle investors
15:45 – What defines the Long Angle community?
19:52 – Why not the traditional route?
23:14 – How are they allocated?
27:20 – How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio
35:02 – How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?
40:18 – Micro or macro?
45:08 – Taking advantage of inefficiencies in markets
47:04 – Why are they staying away from hedge funds?
49:32 – Why are they using trend following?
52:24 – Their thoughts on crypto
56:29 – Generating ideas and finding priorities
01:01:29 – Advice for other investors
01:07:05 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:01:07 – What is catching our attention recently?
06:53 – A recap of April
10:14 – Hari's thoughts on trend following
14:30 – The interesting commodities
18:10 – A commodity super cycle inbound?
20:36 – BUT…Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022
22:51 – How commodity storage functions
29:57 – Balancing divergence and convergence
32:26 – How virtual commodity storage works
35:55 – The role of trend following in a regime-based participation
42:47 – How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?
47:06 – Manual or systematized?
48:59 – Overcoming the challenges of commodities
53:44 – What markets can the method be applied to?
54:16 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:39 – Christian's current big picture macro framework
07:22 – The role of volatility in inflation
12:20 – Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?
21:02 – What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?
27:37 – A scary situation in Europe?
32:16 – How election periods affect the economy
40:22 – A wall of worry
43:30 – Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility
48:03 – A push-pull effect
51:41 – Is trend following the solution?
54:39 – The optimal portfolio in 2024
01:01:04 – A time of opportunity?
01:03:49 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:00:47 – What has been on our radar recently?
02:22 – What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?
03:11 – Industry performance update
05:27 – Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?
12:17 – Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro
18:09 – Important market development recently?
31:40 – Making profit from different scenarios
35:48 – The structure of markets
42:23 – Are rate cuts coming?
48:10 – How the U.S election will change the economic narrative
53:32 – The pros and cons of a win for Trump
56:49 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:15 – Marko's current macro framework
07:20 – Moving towards a multi-polar world
14:43 – How is now different from back in the days?
23:36 – Trump landing the deglobalization plane
31:48 – The election – a macro black hole
36:47 – The new world from a non-US perspective
44:18 – What happens with Ukraine?
49:50 – An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?
56:15 – Creating strong relationships
01:02:50 – Will China invade Taiwan in the next 5 years?
01:05:30 –* Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:01:05 – What has been on our radar recently?
06:15 – Industry performance update
09:54 – Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?
13:38 – Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?
20:41 – Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?
26:23 – Are strategies like seasonality convergent?
27:14 – Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy
32:00 – Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation
41:07 – Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation
46:19 – Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa
57:43 – Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence
59:53 – Final thoughts and a cliff hanger
The post SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver – April 20th, 2024 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:07 – Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer
04:59 – What do financial cycles derive from?
07:19 – What drives the cycles?
09:31 – A desynchronisation in the cycles
12:15 – Are we entering an optimism phase?
14:39 – Interpreting the signals
17:38 – Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?
21:59 – What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?
26:54 – Are companies losing their margins?
29:17 – The potential of AI
31:54 – Can high energy consumption ruin the development of AI?
35:48 – Where will the investment in AI come from?
40:00 – Going full cycle
41:37 – The engines of growth
43:43 – Did the central bank response stop markets from becoming volatile?
48:13 – The role of central banks
51:22 – Getting out of a period of high debt
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Episode TimeStamps:02:08 – What has been on our radar recently?
08:33 – Industry performance update
16:02 – What is the optimal allocation to trend following?
24:02 – Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?
27:09 – Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?
31:30 – Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?
37:21 – What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?
42:01 – Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach
46:44 – What about the fees?
50:34 – Are we losing the incentive to improve?
58:45 – The impact of crises
01:07:11 – Sign up for our new newsletter
01:08:26 – What is up for next week?
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Timestamps02:24 – Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital
05:43 – A global macro perspective
09:45 – How has the industry evolved?
13:51 – Are investors under-allocated to trend?
17:11 – Trend following – a return enhancer?
20:37 – The correlation between stocks and bonds
25:27 – The path to offer multible strategies
29:47 – Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors
33:26 – Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?
39:11 – How are allocations funded now?
42:28 – CTAs – competitors or a different allocation?
44:44 – Does capping the beta make sense?
49:21 – Are investors becoming too difficult?
52:49 – Todd's view on the use of artificial intelligence
58:13 – Has trend following changed because of AI?
01:02:53 – Excitement and concerns for 2024
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Episode TimeStamps:01:16 – What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 – Industry performance update
06:49 – What is the big deal with Cocoa?
11:49 – What causes the rising Cocoa prices?
13:56 – A fantastic start to the year for trend following
16:58 – Industry performance update continued
18:12 – Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?
22:05 – What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?
30:51 – A period of normalcy
34:02 – A change in the trend following narrative
42:54 – Are replication strategies becoming less radical?
46:22 – Stacking returns – a good or bad idea?
52:35 – Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)
57:08 – Finding the optimal allocation
01:04:27 – Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation
01:07:11 – Different allocations for different situations?
01:11:10 – Too old for unrealistic expectations
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Episode TimeStamps:02:50 – Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec
07:06 – A new initiative
10:01 – What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?
12:40 – What goes into which bucket?
14:45 – What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?
16:31 – Constructing an absolute return portfolio
18:38 – How they approach trend following
21:58 – Why do they use leverage?
23:32 – What do they expect from their portfolio?
25:12 – Managing liabilities
27:58 – Public equities – where do they stand?
30:59 – Investing in niche strategie
34:11 – How they evaluate managers
36:21 – Open to early stage manager risk?
41:42 – What makes a manager stand out?
44:56 – When should you remove a manager?
46:47 – What is their governance process?
50:36 – How they make decisions as a team
52:20 – Advice for new investors
55:34 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:01:03 – Remembering Daniel Kahneman
03:54 – Things are changing
09:54 – Industry performance update
13:32 – What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing
16:23 – Let's talk about Cocoa
21:55 – Trends can last longer than people expect
24:44 – Is the Cocoa market a bubble?
28:31 – Less markets = better performance?
30:43 – Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market
39:13 – Understanding the financial conditions index
45:09 – A euphoric environment
49:47 – What makes trend following unique?
54:50 – Global macro vs. trend following
59:01 – A rotation in the alternative markets
01:03:15 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:16 – Introduction to Tony Kaiser
04:07 – An interesting journey
16:50 – A difficult space for alpha
20:55 – Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?
28:17 – How has trading frequency and systems evolved?
33:15 – Do Kaiser's original models still work today?
45:28 – A shock to the system
49:43 – Where does the low correlation come from?
57:00 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:01:20 – What has happened recently?
05:51 – Industry performance update?
07:13 – Are managed futures funds are right for replication?
13:55 – How did they test it?
17:23 – Are economies becoming less synchronised?
25:02 – How many markets are enough for replication?
29:01 – Why are people going into alternative markets?
32:58 – Have managers become more different or similar?
41:02 – Industry disruptions – how is Andrew different?
47:22 – Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years
54:44 – How Andrew resist making changes to his replication model
56:54 – Train wreck in hedge fund land
01:04:02 – How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?
01:08:25 – The challenges of the industry
01:14:21 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:03:32 – Introduction to Nelson Rangel
08:09 – Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory
12:29 – A look around the globe
17:37 – Reflecting on the U.S debt
21:17 – How is the next decade unfolding for China?
25:29 – The BRICs taking over the monetary system
30:38 – Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?
34:58 – Being adaptable to new scenarios
39:26 – Advice for investing in South America
48:14 – News about UAPs (UFOs)
56:24 – Key takeaways from Niels
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Episode TimeStamps:01:16 – What has caught our attention recently?
03:43 – Industry performance update
06:06 – The challenge of bias in trend following systems
13:54 – Taking the bonds out?
16:22 – Advice on trading universal parameters
19:35 – Going back to normal – a fantasy?
23:35 – Trend following – a long divergence strategy
26:31 – Are we actually in a crisis?
32:05 – Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?
36:38 – How does Katy define a crisis?
37:40 – A different understanding of trend following?
40:32 – Are there different types of crises?
45:55 – A global macro perspective
51:38 – Are bonds mispriced?
55:37 – From predictable to unpredictable inflation
59:11 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:00:50 – The macro perspective
03:56 – Industry performance update
06:17 – First CTA to launch a ETF
09:57 – The managed futures index – what and why?
17:40 – Tim's experience with indices
20:15 – Building an asset allocation bucket
22:36 – A discussion on alpha
30:58 – Getting exposure to CTA return stream
37:10 – Why Tim would avoid replication strategies
44:18 – The biggest positions drive performance?
51:45 – Are ETFs reliable?
55:47 – Getting the timing right
01:00:49 – A terrible product?
01:04:26 – Why did Tim's US ETF fail?
01:08:07 – What is alpha?
01:11:00 – Are lower fees better for investors?
01:12:14 – Getting the correlation right
01:13:21 – Question from Oliver
01:15:59 – Teasing the next debate
01:22:38 – Thanks for listening
The post 246 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering – June 3rd, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:48 – Introduction to Clint Stone
07:07 – Their approach to investment
12:12 – A challenging decade for equities?
15:06 – Stone's perspective on equity valuations
18:32 – Building a model and strategy
23:04 – Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio
30:52 – Getting the correlation right
34:14 – Correlation in economic downturns
39:04 – Building a multi-asset strategy
41:11 – Getting the speed right
44:39 – Stone's approach to trend following
46:34 – Evaluating managers vs. security analysis
49:05 – The search for capacity constraints
52:02 – The challenge of picking managers
53:41 – Working with real businesses
57:52 – What is a good investment process?
01:03:01 – Generalists vs. specialists
01:06:50 – Advice for new allocators
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Episode TimeStamps:00:52 – Update from Rob
07:13 – Calculating slippage and “midprice”
12:41 – Industry performance update
15:26 – Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction
20:49 – Hidden Markov models – What and why?
27:34 – Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage?
32:37 – Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals
37:49 – Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies?
42:41 – Which CTA should you buy?
49:12 – Can you really predict the performance of a strategy?
56:08 – You need to know what you don't know
58:36 – The U.S debt ceiling
01:03:09 – Thanks for listening
The post 245 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – May 27th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:03:23 – Introduction to David Rosenberg
08:00 – Rosenberg's research process
11:56 – The importance of historical awareness
25:00 – Disruptions in the demand curve
31:16 – Getting the timing right
43:54 – The longer term trajectory
52:58 – Dealing with high debt levels
57:12 – A shift in the political landscape
01:00:56 – Learning more about global macro
01:05:02 – Thanks for listening
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Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.
Timestamps02:19 – Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors
07:30 – Their investment philosophy
10:30 – What differentiates them from their peers?
12:33 – The key to succes
14:06 – Their approach to open equity
17:22 – Staying true to trend following
20:13 – Improving the risk adjusted profile
23:15 – An evolving system
28:19 – Slow or fast?
30:44 – Being aware of volatility
32:44 – Trend following vs. momentum
37:19 – “The technical logic of the system”
40:05 – An adaptive process
43:58 – How they reach their goals
45:46 – Pros and cons of adding more markets
50:11 – How they manage risk
57:23 – How have markets changed over time?
01:00:03 – Trend following disagreements
01:03:53 – What is he excited for this year?
01:06:30 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:00:23 – Changes in the podcast format
01:30 – Review of the week
05:03 – Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems
12:48 – A deep dive into manager selection
28:37 – The optimal process and results
30:58 – Diversification in manager selection
33:51 – Hunting the trends
46:29 – The Knowledge Project
55:44 – Thanks for listening
The post 244 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – May 20th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:37 – What has happened since our previous conversation?
06:03 – Making sense of the oil market
10:44 – Signs of a put on the oil market
16:38 – The situation with natural gas
25:13 – Has the gas situation been improved?
32:42 – Nuclear energy – is it a viable solution?
46:51 – The outlook for gold
52:51 – The mechanisms of the capital cycles
01:00:45 – The state of metals
01:04:18 – A metal crisis?
01:06:24 – Centralised commodities and rare earths
01:09:53 – Investing in rare earths
01:12:52 – Considerations for owning gold
01:16:58 – Thanks for listening
The post Adam Rozencwajg – Global Macro Series – May 17th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:33 – What happened this week?
06:56 – Industry performance update
08:38 – An interesting inflection point
16:29 – The timing of tops vs. bottoms
21:25 – Why are people short today?
25:57 – How will AI affect the middle and upper class?
30:56 – Where are we at in the cycle?
36:11 – Karsan's outlook for earnings
39:25 – Passive vs. Active investing
44:25 – Expectations for OPEX in May
49:18 – What could change Karsan's bearish view?
52:22 – The debt problem
01:01:09 – A society in decline
01:03:46 – Thoughts on Gold
01:05:42 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:23 – Introduction to Martin Wolf
07:45 – Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together?
14:46 – The conflicts between capitalism and democracy
18:43 – Is the risk to democracy global?
23:15 – A changed view after the election?
27:29 – Making process in a divided country
35:00 – A sign of desperation
36:58 – Success takes small steps?
44:35 – The importance of local democracies
50:58 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:01:55 – A big week for Chairman Powell
10:59 – Industry performance update
14:07 – Global macro meets trend following?
19:52 – The spectrum of behaviour
25:47 – Balancing complexity and robustness
30:51 – Being aware of unexpected events in markets
34:31 – It takes two to crisis
39:06 – Are we approaching a de-dollarization?
41:56 – Is price all we need?
50:55 – Why do we need machine learning?
56:39 – Words of estimative probability
01:00:35 – Put the money where your mouth is
01:02:58 – Skew in trend following
01:05:38 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:37 – The big macro picture
04:37 – Inflation from a historical perspective
14:22 – Cycles and trends – how are they different?
18:23 – A sticky situation
21:53 – A wealth of trades?
26:58 – A secular reality
29:17 – The banking situation
35:16 – A build-up effect
38:58 – Buying Puts – A way to lose money?
41:02 – Cyclical vs Secular effects
46:38 – Inflationary pressure in Japan
54:45 – De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage
01:08:14 – The advantage of commodities
01:13:41 – Where is the world heading?
01:17:57 – Final thoughts
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Episode TimeStamps:02:32 – Broad macro observations
10:21 – Consumer confidence and political obstacles
14:44 – Looking towards China
18:53 – Trend following update
24:38 – Q1, Lawrence: What to do when approaching retirement drawdown?
29:53 – Q2, Lawrence: How can smaller investors benefit from allocating to CTAs
31:31 – A trend following rollercoaster
36:33 – Using risk mitigation strategies
45:52 – Risk mitigation in pension funds
50:57 – How to build an Alternative Portfolio
01:00:06 – What does the future holds for trend following?
01:04:51 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:03:08 – The big picture macro view
08:27 – Fed selling Puts and Calls
12:54 – The lag effect
20:31 – The impact of change in demographics
29:49 – The state of the markets – Recession inbound?
38:47 – Sticky CPI – What is causing it?
46:12 – Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?
49:41 – Are we looking at the right Asset Class?
52:26 – Is the equity rally about to end?
54:24 – The Unpinning of Volatility
57:40 – The coming Explosion of volatility
01:01:44 – Thanks for listening
The post Cem Karsan & Niels Kaastrup-Larsen – Global Macro Series – April 26th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:21 – Looking back on the week
13:19 – Reflecting on the CTA series
19:23 – The impact of the SVB event
23:02 – Industry performance update
24:39 – Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends
35:08 – Two Critical Views on Trend Following
40:15 – What are the papers about?
43:28 – Defending trend following
54:01 – The Role of Volatility…and what it predicts
57:06 – The trend following narrative
01:06:05 – Paper from Aspect Capital
01:09:34 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:38 – Introduction to Stephen Roach
07:37 – Why are false narratives so prevalent?
12:52 – Stephen's favorite false narrative
17:07 – A dangerous narrative
22:02 – A political backstep?
28:00 – A lack of telecom infrastructure
29:58 – The false narratives of China
40:47 – The fear of containment
45:27 – Potential ways forward
49:15 – The bilateral investment treaty
55:54 – How has Stephen's ideas been received?
57:56 – Thanks for listening
59:13 – Key takeaways from Niels
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Learn more about Metori Capital Management.
Timestamps02:17 – Introduction to Metori Capital Management
04:08 – Their investment philosophy
09:47 – An alternative view on Sharpe
18:44 – Adding value to a trend following program
21:08 – Signal filtering and embedding correlations
24:46 – The better technique and right timeframe
27:35 – Selecting and changing parameters
30:18 – Their view on replication
32:50 – Advice on evaluating and selecting managers
35:48 – Benefiting from alternative markets
39:30 – The risk of alternative markets
41:29 – Looking beyond China
42:18 – Incorporating ESGs with alternative markets
45:20 – Overcoming investors' trend following barriers
49:39 – The role of trend in a multi-asset portfolio
53:47 – Are risk mitigation strategies going out of fashion?
55:49 – Too much money in trend following?
58:57 – Trend following disagreements
01:00:56 – Expectations for 2023
01:02:55 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:41 – What happened this week?
11:46 – Industry performance update
13:57 – Replication – reasons for concern?
16:58 – Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?
23:51 – The challenge of making money when yields rise
32:27 – Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?
40:56 – The challenges of picking a single manager
47:51 – Should you make changes to your model?
53:29 – Gaurdian article on CTAs role in food crisis
01:03:12 – Thanks for listening
The post 239 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer – April 16th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:41 – Introduction to Rick Rule
04:16 – Financial experimentation and taking bets
16:35 – Commodities and the state of the economy
28:37 – Themes in resourcable markets
30:47 – Inflation – a political phenomenon?
38:57 – Are we seeing a change in ESGs?
44:26 – The pushback by the lower class
49:48 – Is owning gold becoming pointless?
56:14 – Central banks buying – a sign of demand?
01:00:40 – Finding convex ways to invest in gold
01:06:49 – Too much hype in the narrative?
01:11:57 – Being a contrarian
01:14:15 – Learn more about Rick and his work
The post Rick Rule – Global Macro Series – April 12th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.
Timestamps02:16 – Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management
03:46 – Their investment philosophy
10:00 – A period of challenges
13:26 – Believing in change
15:45 – Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?
23:02 – Looking back in time
30:42 – The role of short-term trading
38:56 – What drives short-term trading?
42:47 – Being smart with execution
46:09 – Dealing with the downsides
53:53 – Studying the markets
55:49 – The dangers of machine learning
58:41 – Capacity and liquidity in short-term strategies
01:05:33 – Short-term trading disagreements
01:08:00 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU142: Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:40 – What happened since last time?
09:42 – Industry performance update
10:38 – Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?
13:28 – Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?
20:49 – Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend?
25:41 – Libor Futures being replaced
30:41 – Blogpost about estimating standard deviation
38:01 – Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction
43:37 – Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging
56:22 – Reasons Not to trend follow
01:09:50 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:03:19 – Introduction to Barry Eichengreen
08:17 – A potential misuse of history
11:26 – A lesson forgotten?
14:25 – Are things starting to break?
16:49 – A lesson learned
18:44 – Should we be concerned?
22:19 – Are crises inevitable?
24:32 – Is the dollar under threat?
30:10 – The need for safe assets
36:02 – The state of the Euro
39:39 – Making alliances
43:17 – A change in approach
45:18 – The “right” amount of debt
49:21 – A systemic problem
51:25 – Dealing with the debt burden
54:09 – Secular stagnation
55:48 – UK guilt yield levels
57:10 – Concerns for private sector debt
58:24 – Debt in the emerging world
01:00:45 – How and where to learn more?
The post Barry Eichengreen – Global Macro Series – April 5th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about Florin Court.
Timestamps02:46 – Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach
03:54 – The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture
07:13 – Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?
15:55 – Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk
18:31 – Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times
22:27 – Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha
29:20 – Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets
33:39 – The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative Markets
36:41 – From Niche to Mainstream: The Rise of Alternative Markets
40:10 – Working with Trend Following: Tips and Best Practices
47:33 – Managing Risk: An Inside Look at Florin Court's Process
52:06 – The Importance of Macro Awareness in Trend Following
56:02 – ESGs and Investing: A New Frontier?
58:12 – Living the Abu Dhabi Lifestyle
01:01:26 – Factors Impacting Performance: A Closer Look
01:04:54 – The Art of Navigating Different Opinions
01:08:15 – Concerns & Opportunities in 2023: What to Watch Out For
01:11:13 – Thank You for Listening: Closing Remarks
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Episode TimeStamps:03:16 – What happened this week?
08:34 – Unusual moves
15:16 – Reviewing the March Madness
20:44 – Industry performance update
22:05 – Being prepared for unexpected events
27:17 – Keeping things simple
30:29 – Correlation in your portfolio
34:27 – Finding the right strategy and manager
38:11 – The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio
49:27 – Tail hedge vs trend following allocation
55:19 – Who's Sharpe should we be improving?
01:02:39 – The Pros and Cons of being a Replicator
01:12:15 – Thanks for listening
The post 237 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – April 2nd, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:49 – Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book
11:42 – What will the new world bring?
17:01 – The problems with Big Food
21:58 – The fascinating story of Molly Jahn?
28:08 – A realistic solution?
31:14 – A passion for manufacturing
37:22 – The pendulum is swinging
38:47 – An era of Hyper Localization
42:05 – The power of Additive Manufacturing
45:20 – The role of Data & the story of Audrey Tang
55:15 – The 100 homes project
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Learn more about Quantica Capital.
Timestamps02:46 – Introduction to Quantica Capital
05:04 – Their investment philosophy
12:31 – What makes them unique?
17:09 – Reacting to trends
19:43 – Why not do it the easy way?
23:33 – Looking Sharpe
30:34 – Correlation is going to “1”
35:12 – Dealing with shocks
39:02 – The measurement methodologies
43:14 – The role of correlation
46:38 – Good research and potential pitfalls
53:09 – Important discoveries
55:26 – Making adjustments in a larger portfolio
59:11 – The time scale perspective
01:05:07 – The pros and cons of CTA replication
01:10:42 – Setting return expectations
01:14:14 – Trend following disagreements
01:15:45 – Expectations for 2023
01:19:22 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU140: Bruno Gmür, Founder and CIO at Quantica Capital appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:03 – Reflecting on the current bank crashes
06:03 – The difficult situation for Powell
09:38 – The geopolitical perspective
12:38 – Surprises in the OpEx
18:03 – Weekly update
20:24 – The volatility winter
27:05 – Vol strategies in the equity space
30:38 – How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment?
36:11 – Are vol strategies on a downfall?
44:15 – A loss of confidence in Central Banks
48:09 – What are the signs?
50:55 – The U.S election…and how it will affect economic policies
54:11 – The U.S debt ceiling
58:36 – Gamma vs Vega
01:03:01 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:04:14 – Introduction to Ashoka Mody
10:19 – The development path of East Asia
14:41 – The path that India did not take
19:32 – The path they did take
23:37 – Different versions of India
30:37 – What is Hindutva?
34:09 – The Guljurat model of development
39:34 – A corrupted government
46:17 – Finding the accurate data
51:45 – Press freedom in India
54:37 – India – the new China?
56:53 – Building a better India
01:02:23 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post Ashoka Mody – Ideas Lab Series – March 22nd, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about Winton Group.
Timestamps02:18 – Introduction to Winton
05:05 – Their investment philosophy
09:25 – Where does opportunities arise?
10:18 – What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago?
13:48 – Too concerned about Sharpe?
16:39 – The value of Crisis Alpha
20:09 – Changing the trend following narrative
22:41 – What about the non-trend?
25:22 – Need for speed?
27:49 – Their research process
31:19 – Accessing big events in markets
35:00 – The pros and cons of machine learning
38:16 – Trading and selecting parameters
42:23 – The risks of CTA replication
44:57 – More markets = better?
50:09 – Staying balanced
52:23 – The strategies in a broader perspective
54:18 – Working with clients
55:22 – Their approach to risk manangement
01:00:18 – The worst possible scenario
01:01:24 – Preparing for the worst?
01:02:37 – Question about capping the ability to go long stocks
01:03:59 – How many trend followers do you need?
01:05:14 – Setting return expectations
01:07:33 – Trend following disagreements
01:11:05 – Expectations for 2023
The post TTU139: Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:00 – What really happened this week?
19:19 – Industry performance update
25:21 – A tough week for trend
36:13 – Looking through the rear view mirror
46:25 – SVB and trend following
52:47 – The dynamics of the financial world
59:20 – A changing world
01:09:27 – Reflecting on the CTA series
01:13:33 – Thanks for listening
The post 235 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – March 19th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:03:19 – SPR – What and why?
06:27 – Why crude and not refined products?
09:34 – How is the SPR used?
13:54 – Trading oil
19:54 – The goal of the SPR market
23:04 – How inventory drives oil price
28:29 – The effect of inventory restocking
29:43 – Theory vs. practice
33:28 – The mega energy companies
36:00 – Distortion in oil markets
41:20 – Can volatility be profitable?
47:35 – No specs = steeper or flatter?
50:11 – Advice on using the data
52:37 – Understanding signals in the oil market
59:17 – Dollar Wrecking Barrell
01:01:44 – Oil vs. gold and gas
01:09:07 – What makes money in high vol regimes?
The post Rory Johnston – Global Macro Series – March 15th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about PIMCO.
Timestamps02:28 – Introduction to PIMCO
05:11 – Their investment philosophy
11:11 – Too concerned about the Sharpe?
14:53 – A different Speed of trend following
18:13 – Building a defence against equity drawdowns
22:32 – Balancing the opposing forces
25:45 – A different approach to volatility correlation?
27:06 – Using machine learning
28:04 – The role of bonds
31:34 – The larger portfolio perspective
33:07 – Their research process
36:53 – Number of markets
39:01 – Their view of CTA replication
42:10 – Need for speed?
44:28 – Different models for different markets?
45:50 – Hitting the gas?
48:02 – Cap the equities?
49:14 – Adding non-priced based signals
50:31 – How many strategies do you actually need?
51:17 – What is second best?
52:15 – Framing the expected outcomes
54:04 – Their sense on liquidity
55:38 – Trend following disagreements
57:05 – Expectations for 2023
59:49 – Running trend following in a bond shop
01:01:29 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:19 – Reflecting on the TTU CTA series
04:57 – Performance update
09:59 – Q1, Gene: Question about underfitting and overfitting
16:47 – Q2, James: What types of stops are commonly used in moving average systems?
18:49 – Q3, Chris: How far back do you go in backtesting?
22:20 – Q4.1, Kyle: What happens if an FCM goes belly up?
26:37 – Q4.2, Kyle: Questions regarding “Following the Trend” by Andreas Clenow
39:22 – Applying a commission rate for your backtest
44:22 – Q5.1, Matthijs: The optimal moment to roll a contract?
46:14 – Q5.2, Matthijs: View on adding a defensive strategy to a multi-strat CTA?
47:52 – Q5.3, Matthijs: Why limit trend following to a small part of your portfolio
49:35 – Rob's article in FT
58:27 – Investor survey from BNP with predictions for 2023
01:00:49 – Diversification across instruments
01:06:49 – Thanks for listening
The post 234 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – March 11th appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:The post David Dorr – Global Macro Series – March 8th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about DG Partners.
Timestamps02:08 – Introduction to DG Partners
03:38 – Their road to trend following
12:13 – The weaknesses of trend following
16:00 – Too concerned about Sharpe?
19:10 – The dual mandate
22:51 – The trend following narrative
27:19 – Capturing the meat of trend following
30:24 – Need for speed?
38:13 – How many markets do they trade?
40:16 – Rethinking volatility?
43:01 – Their execution process
44:00 – Their view on CTA replication
47:39 – Risk management
51:36 – The state of liquidity
59:36 – The absence of pain
01:00:40 – Trend following in a broader portfolio
01:02:58 – Capacity in trend following
01:05:26 – Trend following disagreements
01:06:50 – Expectations for 2023
01:08:17 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU137: David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:01:59 – Broad Macro observations
12:41 – How the economy responds to interest rates
17:03 – Moving in a new direction
20:54 – Reflecting on the month of February 2023
22:44 – Industry performance update
24:29 – Bloomberg article on CTAs impact on equity markets
31:41 – Colorful headlines
34:07 – Findings from Quantica paper on CTAs footprint
43:45 – Why trend following & How to do it?
50:47 – Takeaways from the CTA series
01:02:51 – Thanks for listening
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Learn more about Capital Fund Management.
Timestamps02:05 – Introduction to Capital Fund Management
05:32 – Their investment philosophy
12:27 – Periods of under-performance
19:13 – Trend following – a small piece?
24:58 – Do Trend Followers have a dual mandate?
31:32 – Their research process
36:22 – Enhancing a trend program
37:46 – Using machine learning
40:47 – Different types of trend followers
46:56 – Controlling the risk
51:20 – Dealing with drawdowns
54:44 – Achieving convexity
57:03 – Looking in hindsight
00:58:26 – Addressing rebalancing, capacity and fees
01:05:38 – Trend following disagreements
01:08:29 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU136: Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:46 – Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science
09:42 – The major players in the energy markets
12:56 – Speculative vs. commercial
18:43 – Forecasting the flow
25:02 – What has caused spikes in nat gas?
27:15 – Financial flows in commodity markets
30:22 – Risk considerations
32:14 – The relationship between fundamentals and price action
34:28 – Measuring demand
36:09 – The findings from Ferguson's research
39:46 – Oil on water supply vs land supply
41:33 – The impact of the dollar changes
45:33 – Measuring expectations
48:00 – The state and future of Ferguson's business
53:49 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post Nicky Ferguson – Global Macro Series – March 1st, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about AQR Capital Management.
Timestamps02:50 – Introduction to AQR
04:12 – Their investment philosophy
08:47 – Risk premia strategies
11:55 – A historical perspective
13:55 – Too focused on sharpe?
22:24 – Changing the narrative
30:41 – Being unconventional
35:13 – Getting comfortable with the data
39:22 – The future for economical trend following
42:55 – Their research process
47:05 – The managed futures space
48:39 – Pricing trend following
55:00 – The need for daily liquidity
57:32 – The portfolio construction process
01:00:12 – The pros and cons of replication
01:04:25 – Applying risk management
01:05:40 – Adding new markets
01:09:19 – The role of trend following
01:13:08 – Reaching the limit
01:16:05 – Trend following disagreements
01:17:52 – Expectations for 2023
01:19:47 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU135: Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:04 – Market recap
04:21 – Reflecting on the TTU CTA Series
09:10 – What has caught Nick's attention recently?
13:17 – Industry performance update
15:53 – Q1, Adam: Regarding applying systems to markets
23:41 – Q2, Tim: Thought on trend following the trend followers?
30:39 – Q3, Tim: Nick's thoughts on tracking the AUM?
37:19 – Crisis alpha – lost in translation?
49:43 – How trend following has evolved
53:44 – Are we too concerned about the Sharpe?
58:55 – Changing the narrative
01:05:02 – Trend following disagreements
01:07:29 – Thanks for listening
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Learn more about AlphaSimplex Group.
Timestamps02:01 – Introduction to AlphaSimplex Group
03:03 – Their Investment Philosophy
08:02 – Too concerned about sharpe?
13:42 – How do you customize pure trend?
16:10 – Crisis Alpha – the true meaning explained
22:24 – The role of commodities in crises
26:22 – A need for speed?
32:20 – Capping the equity beta
39:36 – Their approach to CTA replication
44:59 – Machine learning as a research tool
48:30 – Simple vs. sophisticated
50:02 – CTA style factors
56:16 – All about bonds?
59:00 – An uncertain world
01:02:38 – The signs of change
01:06:23 – Trend following disagreements
01:09:03 – Expectations for 2023
01:10:52 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU134: Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about Quest Partners.
Timestamps02:08 – Introduction to Quest Partners
03:34 – Their investment philosophy
07:35 – A structural change in markets
15:04 – Too focused on Sharpe?
20:55 – Creating momentum
24:18 – A move toward multi-strat?
37:35 – Managing the crowd
39:13 – The persistency of market environments
41:45 – A type of machine learning?
44:12 – The source of opportunities
48:34 – The “D” word
53:30 – Thoughts on CTA replication
01:00:12 – Being a short term manager
01:02:30 – Liquidity issues and changes in markets
01:09:15 – Trend following disagreements
01:12:46 – Expectations for 2023
01:14:15 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU133: Nigol Koulajian & Mike Harris of Quest Partners appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:03:17 – Reflecting on the CTA Series
09:55 – What happened this week?
12:42 – Q1, Jordan: Regarding setting stop loss when entering a position
15:39 – Q2, Mark: Entry lookback vs exit lookback?
19:23 – Signal to noise masterclass
36:03 – The Tom Basso experiment
46:34 – The challenges of creating models
52:40 – Avoiding overfit – Don't pick the best parameters
57:23 – Avoiding overfit – Apply the Golden Rules
01:00:19 – Using visual mapping
01:03:50 – Avoiding overfit – trade multiple markets
01:07:34 – Trend Following is not easy
01:14:04 – The January trend report
01:15:46 – Thanks for listening
The post 231 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – February 19th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about Graham Capital Management.
Research Papers by Graham Capital Management:
Market Diversification
What's Luck Got to Do With It?
Can You Trend-Follow Trend-Following?
Timestamps02:16 – Introduction to Graham Capital Management
04:00 – Their investment philosophy
09:35 – The art of modeling
12:33 – Too concerned about sharpe?
17:14 – Working together with clients
20:17 – The “real” objective
23:22 – Commodities – A saver in crises?
27:32 – What strategies to add in a 60/40?
32:54 – Their research process
37:28 – Evaluating managers and strategies
40:20 – Regime shifts and changes in markets
44:11 – Recalibrating parameter selection
48:34 – Their approach to lookback and signal generation
54:01 – Static vs. dynamic position sizing
59:03 – Liquidity in markets
01:02:17 – Reacting to changes in markets
01:06:34 – Discretionary interventions in markets
01:10:14 – Trend following disagreements
01:11:35 – Expectations for 2023
The post TTU132: Dr. Edward Tricker, CIO of Quantitative Strategies at Graham Capital Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:42 – Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst
09:22 – Where lies the uncertainty?
11:01 – The ultimate impact on markets
15:32 – Reflecting on Peter Zeihan's work
25:17 – Can we rely on Chinese data?
34:34 – The problems with Chinese real-estate
36:56 – Xi Jinpings geopolitical ambitions
40:35 – Can China still influence global growth?
46:51 – The relationship between Russia and China
48:50 – Are we heading towards deglobalization?
54:19 – A disruption in global commodities
01:04:49 – A bad outlook for equities?
01:07:57 – Are we forgetting Latin America?
01:10:08 – A shift in equities?
01:12:18 – Thanks for listening
The post Jacob Shapiro & Roger Hirst – Global Macro Series – February 15th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about Halyard Asset Management.
Timestamps02:40 – Introduction to Halyard Asset Management
04:12 – History of Cash Management
07:16 – What happened with money market funds?
09:34 – Has the Cash Management space changed?
11:02 – Cash management philosophy
12:23 – A liquid portfolio
17:39 – Drawing the safety line
19:25 – Considering ESGs
21:11 – Managing cash in different currencies
22:41 – Balancing the mandates
23:52 – Managing risk
25:44 – Thinking about expected returns
27:05 – The evolution of fees
29:40 – Lessons learned
31:27 – How does Kastner see the world?
33:22 – Where are we heading?
37:00 – The global perspective
39:05 – The debt issue
41:30 – Why Cash Management is Not Easy
43:00 – Expectations for 2023
45:59 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU131: Mike Kastner, Principle & Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:03:20 – What happened this week?
11:01 – Individual Sharpe vs. Portfolio Sharpe
18:59 – Industry performance update
19:56 – Q1, Pete: Same rules for longs and shorts – why?
32:25 – Q1 Follow-up: Change position right away or wait for first new trade entry?
36:09 – Q2, Callum: Question regarding TTU series with Ryan O'Grady
40:57 – Q3, Tim: Questions regarding link between Performance and AUM
50:21 – The problem with flat fees
55:06 – The idea of change point detection
01:00:18 – The age of disconnect
01:11:01 – The impact of disruptors
01:17:04 – Final thoughts
The post 230 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – February 12th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Read more about Aspect Capital.
Timestamps02:57 – Introduction to Aspect Capital
06:54 – Their Investment Philosophy
09:56 – Why does trend strategies work?
13:12 – A less uncertain period
15:44 – Too concerned about the sharpe?
20:38 – Which trends are most popular?
23:01 – Costumization – is there a limit?
28:58 – Staying diversified and improving models
34:33 – The research process
37:29 – A change in models?
40:15 – CTA Replication – good or bad idea?
46:01 – Their perspective on machine learning
49:33 – The risks of trend following
51:45 – Manipulated markets
53:04 – Their perspective on capacity and fees
56:26 – Setting expectations
59:05 – Simple vs. sophisticated
01:00:03 – Trend following disagreements
01:01:34 – Last words
01:04:01 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU130: Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:31 – Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context
07:15 – Are people over-fixated on data?
09:04 – Is Geopolitical analysis useless?
16:43 – Making assumptions
19:38 – The challenges with data
28:36 – Indicators of volatility
32:26 – Quantifying the fundamental value
37:02 – Having an edge in oil
45:27 – Understanding the CRT Report
49:17 – Oil price – a play on the dollar?
52:27 – An indicator for the state of the world
57:06 – How are oil and natural gas related?
01:00:58 – Fertilizer's impact on natural gas
01:02:43 – The research perspective
01:04:32 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post Rory Johnston – Global Macro Series – February 8th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn more about LYNX.
Timestamps02:18 – Introduction to LYNX
04:11 – How did they settle on trend following?
09:08 – A painful ride?
11:09 – Too focused on sharpe?
14:04 – What stood out in 2022?
16:17 – The dual mandate
18:10 – The benefits of diversifying strategies
20:08 – Why machine learning?
24:31 – The flipside of diversifying strategies
28:32 – The process of replacing models
31:36 – Their view on CTA replication
35:54 – Execution within LYNX
38:15 – The right number of markets
41:10 – How they manage risk
46:02 – What makes a good manager?
51:11 – The issue with capacity
54:29 – Finding and hiring new talent
59:41 – Is Liquidity on a downfall?
01:01:51 – Managing cash
01:02:48 – Trend following disagreements
01:04:04 – Expectations for 2023
01:05:33 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU129: Svante Bergström, CEO & Founding Partner of LYNX Asset Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:11 – Reflecting on the month of January
06:36 – Performance of trend following so far this year
14:43 – Industry performance update
15:43 – Managed futures – the ultimate diversifier?
21:24 – Will stocks and bondscontinue to move in tandem?
25:46 – Predictable diversification benefits
29:28 – The advantages of managers
41:40 – Why should managed futures work?
48:18 – Buy the dip
54:31 – Sticking to the data
01:01:13 – Gunslingers in the ETF space
01:05:59 – Thanks for listening
The post 229 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer – February 5th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Learn More About DUNN Capital Management.
Timestamps02:31 – Introduction to DUNN Capital Management
05:02 – Why Trend Following?
07:35 – What differentiates DUNN Capital Management?
12:06 – Hitting the right balance
14:34 – Reflecting on the performance in 2022
18:43 – The speed of systems
22:28 – Their research process
25:36 – Trading futures and determining trends
28:08 – Weaknesses of trend following
29:12 – From individual markets to portfolios
31:23 – What is the right number of markets?
34:24 – The risk of CTA replication
35:57 – Dynamic vs. static position sizing
39:38 – Primary focus when managing risk
41:29 – What is the right lookback period?
43:10 – Their approach to capacity and fees
47:15 – Is the HQ Location an issue?
48:53 – Monitoring trades
53:09 – The role of trend in larger portfolios
59:02 – The cash management process
01:03:44 – Questions to ask a manager as an allocator
01:05:55 – Expectations for 2023
01:07:46 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU128: Marty Bergin, Owner & President of DUNN Capital Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:27 – Introduction to Perry Mehrling and Charles Kindleberger
10:03 – What is the Sterling System?
15:01 – Establishing a central bank
23:35 – The impact of World War 2
31:32 – What does it take to be a key currency country?
48:53 – Fed – From lender to dealer
54:49 – Are swap lines structured the right way?
01:01:14 – War in Ukraine – what would Charlie have thought?
01:04:25 – Book recommendations
01:07:43 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post Perry Mehrling – Ideas Lab Series – February 1st, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Timestamps02:23 – Introduction to ROW Asset Management
05:18 – Their investment philosophy and objective
11:43 – Should we worry about our sharpe?
16:31 – What to expect from pure trend
20:04 – Their research process
24:00 – Making changes to the system
26:40 – Their thoughts on machine learning
28:53 – New areas for research
30:52 – How many markets should you trade?
35:18 – Their thoughts on replication
38:49 – The risk of replication
42:02 – Managing drawdowns
45:16 – How they use trend following
46:46 – Managing risk in their portfolio
50:21 – Talking fees and capacity
01:00:17 – Running a multi asset portfolio
01:05:24 – Disagreements in trend following
01:07:54 – Expectations for 2023
01:11:53 – Thanks for listening
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Episode TimeStamps:02:16 – The current macro picture
15:56 – Trend following update
18:04 – Current markets and asset allocation
28:07 – Papers on the CTA industry
38:15 – Fast vs. slow trend systems
42:32 – Reflecting on the TTU CTA mini series
49:12 – The multi-manager perspective
56:42 – Feedback on the TTU CTA Mini series
59:07 – Thanks for listening
The post 228 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – January 29th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Timestamps02:07 – Introduction to Campbell & Co
03:53 – Their investment philosophy
06:07 – The objectives of their work
08:37 – Moving beyond trend following
12:27 – Their approach to trading equities
15:11 – Staying diversified
19:59 – Using constraints
21:54 – Thoughts on replication
26:45 – What is a good research process?
31:46 – Balancing the adaptability
36:23 – Trading more markets = better?
41:47 – Dealing with ESGs
47:02 – Their risk management process
51:46 – Being discrete
56:19 – Static or dynamic position size?
59:35 – Capacity in the industry
01:04:27 – Advice on return expectations
01:07:11 – Vanilla vs. sophisticated trend follower
01:09:29 – Managing cash
01:11:07 – What do you disagree with the most?
01:12:07 – Expectations for 2023
01:12:57 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU126: Kevin Cole, CEO & CIO at Campbell & Co. appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:13 – Introduction to David Rubinstein
07:02 – From lawyer to investor
11:48 – What inspired the book?
16:32 – Is capitalism going out of fashion?
18:43 – The path to becoming an investor
25:11 – Diversification vs concentration
30:07 – The bigger the better?
35:38 – Reasons to be cautious?
37:25 – Can you rely on philanthropists?
44:58 – Charity – a problem solver?
51:44 – Rubensteins approach to reading
54:49 – Baseball jargon
55:43 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post David Rubenstein – Ideas Lab Series – January 25th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
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Timestamps02:20 – Introduction to Crabel Capital Management
03:41 – The philosophy behind their work
08:46 – Their trading objectives
11:21 – Too concerned about the sharpe?
14:28 – Better alternatives to sharpe?
16:43 – Unearthing the anomalies
22:49 – Creating the perfect environment
26:34 – Machine Learning – a magical unicorn?
31:17 – Getting the execution right
35:01 – The feeling of being replicated
39:28 – Their approach to trading markets
42:55 – The ESGs?
47:43 – Managing risk
58:42 – Are fees on the rise?
01:03:44 – Getting the execution right
01:07:22 – The role of their product
01:10:51 – Which bucket do they belong to?
01:12:18 – Crazy times for liquidity
01:16:24 – Being controversial
01:20:14 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU125: Michael Pomada, President and CEO of Crabel Capital Management appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:34 – Thoughts on new mini series
09:46 – Battleship still floating?
11:56 – Q1, Markus: Richard's biggest takeaways in his backtesting
18:12 – Q2, Tim: About inconsistencies in the selection process
31:27 – Uncertainty rather than certainty
49:38 – Why not focus on other trends?
56:44 – Outliers – features of liquid markets?
01:03:28 – Everything is a process
01:12:21 – Managing risk in an uncertain world
01:21:24 – Thanks for listening
The post 227 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – January 21st, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
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Timestamps02:27 – Introduction to Transtrend
03:47 – The investment philosophy
17:55 – Being unconventional
21:27 – Pure trend following vs. Trend following plus
29:25 – What is the investment objective?
32:53 – Developing and evaluating systems
37:34 – Human + computer = better than computer?
40:34 – Weaknesses of CTA replication strategies
47:17 – Is trading more markets better?
51:54 – Managing risk and liquidity concerns
56:06 – Diversification strategies and fees
01:00:37 – The challenges of ESGs
01:05:43 – Taking the asset allocator perspective
01:08:49 – Is equity exposure better?
01:10:31 – What do you disagree with the most?
01:11:08 – Expectations for 2023
01:12:12 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU124: Harold de Boer, Head of R&D and Managing Director at Transtrend appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, Cem and Niels are joined by Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on the shifts in global natural resources that we are witnessing right now. We discuss how the focus on decarbonization has impacted the economy and why the low income group is actually the key driver of inflation, why Currie believes markets are set up for a recession in 2023 and how the war in Ukraine causes disruptions in energy infrastructure. We also discuss why OPEC has risen to power again and what drives the oil prices, why we might run out of metals in the near future, why boycotting Russian oil is a climate paradox and what might be the solution to the energy crisis, how the underinvestment in carbon creates a ripple effect in multiple other sectors, why Currie believes renewable energy might not be the right solution to the energy crisis, how to profit from the commodity super cycle and much more.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:02:35 – Introduction to Jeff Currie
04:18 – A new kind of inflation?
08:41 – Policy and what drives inflation
15:41 – The outlook for the demand side
22:45 – Short term position and the commodity space
28:11: – Disruptions in infrastructure
31:17 – The rise of OPEC
33:32 – Status on the strategic oil reserve
34:20 – Volatility in oil
39:45 – Are we running out of metal?
44:12 – The situation with gas
48:15 – What is the solution?
50:12 – Problems with agriculture
53:54 – Dealing with global warming
59:44 – Profiting from the commodity super cycle
01:01:54 – Thanks for listening
The post Jeff Currie – Global Macro Series – January 18th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this first episode of the new mini series with the largest and most successful trend followers in the world, we are joined by Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL, for a conversation on how Man AHL uses trend following in their trading strategy. We discuss the philosophy behind their work and why they believe trend following is a great strategy, as well as what makes Man AHL stand out to investors and how they make trend following more digestible while maintaining “crisis alpha”. We also discuss Korgaonkar’s view on CTA replication and their process of improving their trend following system and models, why having a good execution system is important for enabling different sources of alpha and why they use dynamic position sizing to maximize their returns, how they overcome periods of drawdowns and how you price your work as a CTA, how much you should allocate to trend and much more.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
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Timestamps00:00 – Intro
02:22 – Introduction to Man AHL
03:45 – Their trading strategy
06:18 – Why does trend following work?
10:11 – A unique type of trend following?
15:46 – A trade-off in the objectives
19:14 – The effect of adding carry
21:13 – Picking from the strategy menu?
22:46 – Too much focus on sharpe?
24:33 – Replication – yay or nay?
29:54 – Have the models become outdated?
35:55 – The importance of execution
39:06 – Dynamic vs static position sizing
44:24 – Overcoming drawdowns
48:42 – Discussion on capacity and fees
52:18 – How to think about expected returns
57:09 – Can you trend follow trend following?
58:50 – Managing the cash
01:00:21 – Disagreements in trend following
01:02:03 – Questions to ask as an allocator
01:03:49 – Expectations for 2023
01:05:51 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU123: Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
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Episode TimeStamps:02:18 – What happened since we last spoke?
09:58 – Industry performance update
12:49 – A1, Andrew: Use stop or wait for crossover?
18:41 – Q2, Joseph: Is running your own trend following portfolio reasonable in 2023?
22:58 – Q3, Bart: The importance of Kurtosis
26:53 – Q4, Ross: How to pick parameters?
41:22 – Defending optimization
43:32 – The U.S Debt ceiling
48:05 – The need for speed in trend following
56:16 – Optimal trend following with transaction cost
59:05 – How much Math is needed to be a Trend Follower
01:04:12 – Thanks for listening
The post 226 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – January 15th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Susan Shirk, Professor and expert in the US/China relationship and Chinese politics joins us for a conversation on China’s rise to power, based on her new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”. We discuss Susan’s research process and what laid the foundation for the book, the evolution of the control regime in China and how China has been taking things too far, how corruption affects Chinese politics and how Xi Jinping’s attempt to purge the corruption has led to an over compliance and bandwagoning. We also discuss how China’s strict Covid19 policies has led to nationwide protests and major frustration in the population, how China derailed from its peaceful rise, how they may be able to get back on track and much more.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
03:31 – Introduction to Susan and her work
08:07 – What is the 21st Century China Center?
10:37 – Why did Susan write the book?
16:27 – How did the overreach begin?
24:58 – Purging a corrupt system
31:36 – Examples of derailed politics
37:25 – Dealing with Covid19 protests
45:02 – From peaceful to totalitarian
48:18 – Getting back to a peaceful rise
55:34 – Fear of going to back to China?
01:00:14 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post Susan Shirk – Ideas Lab Series – January 11th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Niels and Alan introduces the new, upcoming mini series that will focus on trend following and managed futures on a broad scale and provide access to the brightest minds within our industry. We set the stage by discussing what kind of year 2022 turned out to be for CTAs and how the idea for the mini series emerged, what we expect and hope to achieve from our conversations with these top-tier managers and some of the exciting topics that we will bring up in the new mini series. We will also take a look into 2023 and discuss our expectations for the year and what we are most excited for in the mini series.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Timestamps00:00 – Intro
01:52 – Setting the stage
03:53 – The idea behind the miniseries
07:48 – What we hope to achieve
11:13 – What are our expectations?
14:43 – The topics that we will discuss
29:25 – When will they be published?
30:34 – What are we most excited for?
35:58 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU122: New Amazing CTA & Managed Futures Series appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Dylan Grice, Co-Founder at Calderwood Capital, for a conversation on how he thinks about portfolio construction through focusing on alternative and niche investments. We discuss how Dylan and his team work and why they shy away from trying to predict the future, how they analyse the current economic situation and why he thinks what happens to inflation and interest rates the next few years is insignificant. We also discuss how they manage the risk of the strategies they are working with and how they build a solid return profile, approach manager selection, how you can avoid being seduced by managers through narratives and much more.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
03:17 – Introduction to Dylan Grice
08:37 – How does Calderwood Capital work?
20:47 – Macro, micro or mixing both?
25:54 – Signs of stress in the markets?
32:37 – Grice’s perspective on inflation and interest rates
36:19 – How do they construct their portfolios?
43:32 – The art of managing risk
48:45 – Building an all weather return profile
54:28 – Assessing the managers
01:01:26 – When things go wrong
01:03:16 – Advice for people working in similar fields
01:05:52 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post 13 Allocator Series: ft. Dylan Grice — January 4th, 2023 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
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Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
01:19 – Diversification in trend following
17:48 – The impact of fluctuating interest rates
30:58 – Using AI in trading
41:46 – A discussion on liquidity
53:54 – A glimpse into 2023
01:05:33 – Thanks for listening
The post 225 Systematic Investor Series Group Conversation Part 2 – December 31st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
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Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
02:14 – Q1, Zach: Have we seen the end of the carry regime? And what are the indicators?
14:16 – The perfect year for trend following?
25:52 – The wrong kind of volatility?
31:04 – Trend vs. Tail Hedge
43:04 – What is happening with volatility?
50:38 – What did we learn from the year 2022?
01:00:40 – The future for Crypto
01:11:37 – Coming up next week
The post 224 Systematic Investor Series Group Conversation Part 1 – December 24th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses asymmetry to stay prepared for the future and the pointlessness of forecasting, how constructing an investment portfolio is like a football match and how Dave’s racing car analogy can help you become a better investor, cheap vs. expensive volatility and the importance of convexity, what the future might hold for volatility and much more.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
03:00 – About Dave and his work
06:04 – Are big pension funds failing?
11:21 – A fragile world
19:54 – How Dave thinks about liquidity
25:20 – What does cheap actually mean?
34:23 – What might be next for volatility
41:43 – The next Korean ship builder?
46:19 – Is forecasting pointless?
51:00 – Improve your convexity = improve your life
59:37 – What is cheap today?
01:13:14 – Time for some outrageous predictions
01:18:49 – Thanks for listening
The post Dave Dredge – Global Macro Series – December 21st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
01:57 – What happened this week?
11:34 – An interesting period for equities
22:33 – Industry performance update
24:39 – Does recession or no-recession even matter?
33:44 – How and when to short the S&P500
39:10 – The Oil Put…
45:08 – Why has Gold disappointed?
47:47 – The rise of the 0DTE options
53:00 – Takeaways from 2022
The post 223 Systematic Investor Series ft. Cem Karsan – November 19th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Chris Miller, Author and Associate Professor of International History, joins us for a fascinating conversation on microchip technology and its impact on modern day society, based on his book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology” – which just received the Financial Times Best Business Book of 2022 Award. We discuss why semiconductor chips are so important today and the complex manufactoring process behind them, the history and role of the very few companies that dominate the industry, the problems that the monopolistic situation causes but also the opportunities that it has created for technology. We also discuss the concerns that the technology has created in terms of espionage and digital warfare, why a deep integration between telecom systems might be a solution to the potential conflicts that the technology can cause, what might be able to disrupt the industry and much more.
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Follow Chris on Twitter & read his book.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:The post Chris Miller – Ideas Lab Series – December 14th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
03:39 – What stood out to us this week?
20:22 – Industry performance update
22:25 – Q1, Elie: Can you run a continuous system without daily vol targeting? Can you calculate signal scaling with in-sample data? More info on the mean reversing system with a high Sharpe?
34:42 – Q2, Matthijs: How does Rob think about protecting/diversifying his portfolio with tail protection strategies?
42:54 – Q3, Richard: Has Rob considered conditioning his carry forecasts based on asset class? Should I account for using the spread of nearest contract to nearest plus when calculating the raw carry forecast?
49:44 – AQR Paper on Portfolio Optimization
54:26 – Article from Alpha Architect on momentum…30 years after Jegaddesh and Titman's seminal paper
01:00:56 – What is coming up in the special Year-End Group episodes?
01:05:43 – Thanks for listening
The post 222 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – December 11th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Shawn Hackett, Founder of Hackett Financial Advisors, for a conversation on how changes in weather and weather volatility affects the economy and you as an investor. We discuss the role and state of agriculture and the impact of climate change, the mechanisms of the climate and why understanding the big picture of weather cycles is so important, how we are transitioning into a new weather cycle, what it means for the crop production and important indicators for predicting crop yields. We also discuss why Hackett view the value of commodities the same way he view the value of stocks and why being aware of where we are in the climate and economic cycles is critical, why long term planning is a key factor in managing risk, how to approach agriculture and commodities in general in your investment strategy and much more.
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IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro
03:07 – The state of agriculture
10:10 – How Sunspots are affecting the earth?
15:22 – What drives the climate?
19:00 – Why are the winds over the Pacific so significant?
21:18 – The World is moving into a new phase
27:39 – Predicting the weather?
36:10 – Positioning risk and classification
44:56 – The impact of currencies
49:08 – Weather Volatility – good or bad?
50:41 – Assisting the farmers
55:15 – Investing in agriculture
01:01:36 – Great Summary from Hackett
01:08:33 – Key takeaways from Niels
The post Shawn Hackett – Global Macro Series – December 7th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 221 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – December 3rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Shannon Saccocia, CIO at SVB Private, for a conversation on how portfolio management and manager selection is carried out at a private bank. We discuss how the current unstable environment has caused a change in investor behaviour and how technology has impacted the economy, what the next phase of investments […]
The post 12 Allocator Series: ft. Shannon Saccocia — November 30th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 220 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – November 27th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can […]
The post Marko Papic – Global Macro Series – November 23rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 219 Systematic Investor Series ft. Cem Karsan – November 19th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Simon Hunt, who has decades of experience in the copper industry, for a conversation on the state of the global macro environment, both currently and in the years to come. We discuss climate change and the extreme implications it will have on our lives, how the current state of war […]
The post Simon Hunt – Global Macro Series – November 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 218 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – November 13th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment […]
The post TTU121: Trend Following…from Optional to Essential? ft. Nick Baltas appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Rob Carver joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we address the press conference held by Chairman Powell. We discuss the most optimal time period for trend following and how trend following differ from short-term trading, the UCITS space and how you should deal with regulation, why it is important to correctly distinguish asset classes and trading strategies from each other. We also discuss Rob’s approach to building mean reversing systems, the importance of analyzing trailing costs when calculating standardized cost and if it is worth learning how to trade futures. Lastly, we discuss hedge fund replication and how Rob approaches it, how you decide, how much you should allocate to Trend Following and much more.
The post 217 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – November 6th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more.
The post William White – Global Macro Series – November 2nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 216 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – October 30th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we have the pleasure of having Adam Rozencwajg back for another conversation on the global energy crisis, this time focusing on the demand side of the crisis. We discuss oil reserves, OPEC and how disruptions in supplies impact the energy sector, why we are seeing a spike in demand for oil and how investors […]
The post Adam Rozencwajg – Global Macro Series – October 26th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 215 Systematic Investor Series ft. Cem Karsan – October 22nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Richard Duncan, Economist and best-selling Author, joins us for a conversation on new ways of thinking about economic growth and prosperity. We discuss the historical aspects of growth and how credit creation and consumption generate economic growth, how foreign central banks create credit and how it has created an economic bubble in the American economy, […]
The post Richard Duncan – Ideas Lab Series – October 19th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 214 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer – October 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Annie Duke, Author and former professional poker player, joins us for a conversation on learning under certainty and making better decisions in an uncertain world, based on her book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away”. We discuss when is the right time to quit and what an expedition at Mount Everest […]
The post Annie Duke – Ideas Lab Series – October 12th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we reflect on what might be the strongest year for Trend Following. We discuss the robustness of Trend Following and how it allows investors to survive in times of uncertainty, how to handle stop-loss when calculating ATR and advice for entering and exiting trades. We also discuss trend identification and why you should avoid prescriptive visual methods, what we can learn from the human hearing when identifying trends and the importance of systematizing your decisions, how to extract and capture trends from your data and why it is important to make your system adaptable to change, why short term lookback periods might not be profitable, why nearly all traders and investors are trend followers and much more.
The post 213 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – October 8th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Michael Gayed, award winning Author and Portfolio Manager, for a real time account of what it's like to go through a challenging time in the markets. We discuss how Michael reinvented himself in 2009 and what he learned from the Great Recession, why Michael believes that Trend Following is not […]
The post Michael Gayed – Global Macro Series – October 5th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 212 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – October 1st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of […]
The post Adam Rozencwajg – Global Macro Series – September 28th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 211 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – September 25th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the […]
The post Michael Howell – Global Macro Series – September 21st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 210 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – September 17th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Oded Galor, Professor of Economics at Brown University, for a conversation on how we can explore and uncover new ways of thinking about the economy, based on his book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. We discuss inequality from a historical aspect and the roots of […]
The post Oded Galor – Ideas Lab Series – September 14th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 209 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – September 11th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, speaker and CIO at NewEdge Wealth, for a conversation on how she manages their portfolio. We address how she manages asset allocation in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why they prefer to play on the smaller side of funds, the importance of valuation and how it can help forecast long run returns. We also discuss how they analyze earnings and liquidity to understand and predict an uncertain macro environment, the outlook of inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability and their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.
The post 11 Allocator Series: From Ballet Dancer to CIO ft. Cameron Dawson— September 7th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 208 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – September 4th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment […]
The post 10 Allocator Series: How to Manage $50bn ft. Jason Morrow— August 31st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 207 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – August 28th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been […]
The post Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan – Global Macro Series – August 24th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 206 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – August 21st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the […]
The post Darius Dale – Global Macro Series – August 17th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 205 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – August 14th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest”. We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why […]
The post Edward Chancellor – Ideas Lab Series – August 10th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 204 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – August 6th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with […]
The post 9 Allocator Series: FED Funds May Hit 8% ft. Bilal Hafeez— August 3rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 203 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – July 30th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, we are joined by Andrew Smithers, Author, Economist and Founder of Smithers & Co, to discuss how we can achieve economic stability, based on his book, “The Economics of the Stock Market”. We address the Q Ratio and why it is important for economic stability, how to use the idea of hindsight value to […]
The post Andrew Smithers – Ideas Lab Series – July 27th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 202 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – July 24th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the […]
The post Manoj Pradhan – Ideas Lab Series – July 20th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 201 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – July 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Larry Siegel, Author and Director of Research at CFA Research Foundation, joins us to discuss his book, “Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance” and how demographic trends impact inflation. Additionally, we discuss the benefits of population growth, the importance of having a free society and how authoritarianism and fascism […]
The post Larry Siegel – Ideas Lab Series – July 13th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 200 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – July 10th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
James A. Fok, Financial Markets Professional and author of the book, “Financial Cold War”, joins us today for a discussion on how the Great Leap Forward has had an impact on China as a society and why they start to experience a virtual societal collapse, the financial relationship between China and the U.S and how […]
The post James A. Fok – Ideas Lab Series – July 6th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 199 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – July 3rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In today’s episode, Antti Ilmanen, author and Global co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management, joins us to discuss key learnings from his new book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”. We break down why commodities are crucial for generating returns in periods of high inflation and how to manage risk through diversification. […]
The post Antti Ilmanen – Ideas Lab Series – June 29th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 198 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – June 26th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Nathaniel Whittemore, aka NLW, creator and host on The Breakdown podcast, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the big power shifts and social changes that are taking place in the world right now, the limits of Central Banks to handle inflation, the future of Crypto and how it impacts the social dynamics of society. […]
The post Nathaniel Whittemore – Global Macro Series – June 22nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 197 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – June 19th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In today’s episode, Peter Atwater, author and adjunct professor of Economics at William & Mary, joins us to discuss socionomics and why media is a great mirror of mood, how confidence in Central Banks relates to the level of interest rates, “stacked vulnerability” and how it runs the potential of creating exhaustion, inequality and the battle between the top and the bottom of society, how the current inflation creates false expectations and why we might see a violent collapse in prices, equity markets and the directions that the markets are moving, how deglobalization is a consequence of a change in social mood, ways to implement a more confidence driven decision making investment strategy and much more
The post Peter Atwater – Global Macro Series – June 15th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 196 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – June 12th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In today’s episode, the dynamic duo Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf and Andreas Steno Larsen, join us to discuss all things Macro…from Central Banks and the reasons for the rising inflation, populism and how monetary policy has created inequality. We also get around demographics and how the shrinking labour force poses a threat to the economy, […]
The post Alfonso Peccatiello (MacroAlf) & Andreas Steno Larsen – Global Macro Series – June 8th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 195 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – June 5th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Grant Williams, creator of The Grant Williams Podcast, joins us to discuss the direction that the world is heading from a global macro perspective, the role of the Federal Reserve and how it has corrupted the price of money. We also touch on how the loss of faith in institutions is a key feature […]
The post Grant Williams – Global Macro Series – June 1st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss manager selection and how to overcome behavioural biases, based on Dunne’s paper, “Solving the Manager Selection Puzzle”, narratives and dealing with randomness in Trend Following, the end of the 60/40 portfolio and moving from public to private equity, trend following performance and quantitative investment strategies, trend following in an ever changing world and the expectation of going back to “normal”, the challenges of globalization and demographics and much more.
The post 194 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – May 29th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Joseph Wang, former senior FED trader & known as the “Fed Guy”, joins us to discuss the credibility of the FOMC and what drives the neutral rate, Central Bank policies and the consequences of increased divergence, monetary policies and reducing liquidity to address the problems of inflation, de-globalization and how labour is no longer connected […]
The post Joseph Wang – Global Macro Series – May 25th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 193 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – May 22nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Pippa Malmgren, former White House Adviser, technology entrepreneur and economist, joins us in today’s episode to discuss warfare in space and the space race between the super powers and the push to declassify UFO related information, how Pippa stays optimistic in a world of conflict and how the instability threatens Western democracy. We also discuss […]
The post Pippa Malmgren – Global Macro Series – May 18th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Mark Rzepczynski joins us in today’s episode to discuss inflation and how it threatens the economy, the power and paranoia of Trend Following and how you make the most money as a Trend Follower, what history tells us about common risks and diversification, portfolio construction and whether having more markets give you better returns, the timing of Trend Following and why you need to have it as a core allocation, how to build the optimal portfolio and why getting rid of bonds is a good idea, Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi and how the FED being behind the curve affects Trend Following, why bond vigilantes are back and much more.
The post 192 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – May 15th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins us in today’s episode to discuss ESG policies and the emerging energy crisis, how the energy sector has evolved over time and the dark sides of renewable energy, why Moore’s Law does not apply to wind and solar energy, how cheap energy leads to distortion and malinvestment of energy, how the argument of human extinction skews the energy debate, nuclear energy and how it might be a solution to the climate crisis, how de-globalization has made the energy sector more vulnerable and much more.
The post Adam Rozencwajg – Global Macro Series – May 11th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 191 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – May 7th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Today, Cem and I are joined by Izabella Kaminska, former Editor of Financial Times Alphaville and Founder of The Blind Spot, to discuss the war of information and mis-information, the aftermath of Covid 19, how the media contributes to a segmentation of society, the group-think phenomenon, how shifts in culture has an impact on economics […]
The post Izabella Kaminska – Global Macro Series – May 4th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 190 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – May 1st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, Niels and Cem is joined by Peter Zeihan, author and Geopolitical strategist, to discuss the New World Order and World War III, how the Globalization has become a new battleground rather than a barrier to conflict, the role of technology in modern warfare and the impact of war on a national and global scale, the military and political power of China, America and Russia and the relationship between them and the rest of the world, how democracy is affected by the “age of emergency”, the financial aspects of war and crises, crypto as a potential economic asset and much more
The post Peter Zeihan – Global Macro Series – April 27th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss currency markets and how we might see a new era of volatility in these markets moving forward, de-dollarization and the future prospects of the U.S dollar, recent performance of Trend Following and how it compares historically, insights from Alfred Winslow Jones as featured in the book, “More Money Than God”, portfolio construction techniques for managing risk, the importance of having a plan, long-only commodities vs. a long/short approach and much more.
The post 189 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – April 24th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: How and why Ben created Epsilon Theory Narative's role in taming and domesticating the masses How we've become more susceptible to “nudging” The function of a power hungry elite with new powerful tools of Narrative The Control of the media How we fight back against autocracy in pursuit of happiness […]
The post Ben Hunt – Global Macro Series – April 20th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 188 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – April 17th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: How to build strong multi-asset portfolios for your clients How using CTAs and Trend Followers can help mitigate risk How manager selection is like a dating process How to make good decisions as a team How to be well prepared for the next crises Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Follow Alan […]
The post 8 Allocator Series: Investing like the Rothschild’s ft. Hugo Capel Cure— April 13th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 187 Systematic Investor Series ft. Tim Pickering – April 10th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * The philosophy of David Swensen and the Yale Model * How the role of hedge funds has changed over the years * The bet Seides made with Warren Buffett * Asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome * What Seides has learned from doing his podcast * The importance of leadership and time management * The difficulty of making a good decision in the heat of the moment * The future of crypto currencies and digital assets
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Ted on LinkedIn.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:23 – Ted’s background
07:35 – How Seides deviates from Swensen in his approach
10:36 – The Yale Model and the end of 60/40
15:55 – Is it more difficult to be a hedgefond allocator now?
23:03 – Asset allocation vs. manager selection
31:35 – What has Seides learned from doing his podcast?
39:58 – Learning by doing vs. learning from courses etc.
41:22 – What has Seides learned from interviewing CIOs and Allocators?
43:35 – What constitutes good and bad governance?
49:14 – Ted’s perspective on crypto currencies and digital assets
51:55 – Macro trends in the coming years
53:39 – Reflection on the success of Ted’s podcast
57:47 – How Ted’s role has evolved
01:01:21 – Thanks for listening
The post 6 Allocator Series: Betting against Buffett ft. Ted Seides— March 30th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:10 – Market recap
04:41 – What has caught Mark’s attention recently?
13:46 – Overview of the week
18:28 – Q1, Brett: Any thoughts on rebalancing based on performance?
30:45 – Trend Following, de-globalisation and the Dark Ages
47:15 – What happened at the LME?
59:18 – Fidelity, Ned Johnson III and the Kaizen philosophy
01:14:29 – Update on performance
The post 185 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – March 26th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are currently in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after a carry regime.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
In This Episode, we'll discuss: * The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economy * The risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubbles * How carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies * The role of liquidity within the carry world * The future of carry
Follow Kevin Coldiron's work:
Follow Kevin on Twitter
Book mentioned in the Episode: The Rise of Carry
Timestamps
00:00 – Intro
02:25 – Introduction to Kevin
05:53 – Background on the co-authors of Kevin’s book
09:43 – Definition of carry trading with examples
13:56 – Volatility vs. risk
23:11 – The role of Volatility in investing
28:27 – Carry trade supressing volatility
35:55 – Does carry trades play a role in financial bubbles?
41:01 – The current carry regime?
43:38 – Carry in macroeconomics
52:48 – What comes after a carry regime?
01:05:44 – Thanks for listening
The post TTU120: Carry – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly ft. Kevin Coldiron appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:45 – Market recap
04:32 – Overview of the week
11:35 – Question, ABE: What are your opinion on roll-harvesting strategies?
21:06 – What causes trends in markets?
43:05 – Is it too late to invest in trend following?
50:22 – Risk mitigation and investor perception of Trend Following
58:42 – Key insights from the Allocator series so far
01:06:51 – Update on performance
The post 184 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – March 20th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * How different types of bonds are valuated * The pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they begin * Why Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time) * Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheet * Alex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zero * How your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful) * The synchronization of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market
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Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Alex on Twitter.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:42 – Introduction to Alex and his background
07:20 – How Alex think about bonds
16:37 – Have bonds become more important since 2008?
18:15 – Making decisions as a trader, and handling victories and defeats
28:01 – Why did Alex go into dividend futures?
33:41 – What Alex would have done if the FED had not stepped in during the Covid crisis
35:40 – How managers can feel that their performance defines who they are
41:27 – The synchronization of central banks and how it affects rates
48:59 – What’s going to happen with the FED going forward?
54:05 – Rounding off and overview of Alex’s books
59:38 – Thank you for listening
The post 11 Volatility Series: The Anatomy of a Trade ft. Alex Gurevich— March 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Jerry on Twitter.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:40 – Summary of the week
08:03 – The short squeeze in Nickel this week
14:53 – Q1, Josh: How to find the best parameters for you Trend Following system
31:57 – Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?
37:11 – Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the financial zeitgeist going forward? Have index providers had a role to play in throttling the industry's potential?
45:36 – Q4, FunnyMoney: Are trading stops intra-day or managed at the next day open? Any tips and tricks?
49:25 – What happens if you stop doing trend following research?
57:00 – Tweets from Jerry
01:20:43 – Performance overview
01:21:49 – Thanks for listening
The post 183 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – March 12th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * How assets are managed in the private space vs. institutional space * Biases in asset allocation and how to overcome them. * Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategies * Due diligence and things to avoid in the process * The risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.
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Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:23 – About Chris’s background and role at Venturi
12:45 – Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard
17:54 – How the industry has evolved over the years
21:56 – Is private equity less risky?
23:43 – Is liquidity being more or less valued than it should be?
27:39 – Alpha, Beta and mapping strategies into categories
32:37 – Dispersion and persistence of returns
36:30 – Setting objectives and making decisions
40:14 – Overcoming biases
44:20 – Dealing with randomness
47:33 – Important skills as a manager
54:29 – Timeframe for analysing a manager’s performance
57:46 – Things to avoid in the due diligence process
01:00:14 – Risks within manager selection
01:03:00 – How much experience do you need?
01:05:09 – Advice for working with asset allocation and manager selection
01:06:12 – Book recommendations
The post 5 Allocator Series: Better than Alpha ft. Chris Schelling — March 9th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:15 – Update on markets
05:50 – What has caught attention and review on performance
27:08 – Status on Rob’s book
29:27 – Q1, What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding?
34:04 – Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy?
39:00 – Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor?
46:00 – Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any action?
51:55 – Q5, Y:Should traders rely on the experience of past wars/conflicts or is this time different?
55:31 – Q6, Emre: Any advice on rebalancing my assets and portfolio?
01:02:35 – Q7, Gene: How do you and your guests reason about the timing of your trades?
01:08:03 – Q8, Akul: Why not dynamically change the allocations to different speeds of momentum?
01:14:32 – Q9, Zach: Is there a way to add trend following volatility instruments?
01:18:53 – Q10, Carl: How to rebalance between multiple strategies?
01:22:12 – Thank you for listening, and what's coming up
The post 182 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – March 6th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decade * The surprise of markets ability to trend * The value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enough * Insights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel Lawson * Why this time feels different * Lessons from the 1987 Crash
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
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Follow Alan Higgins on LinkedIn.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:05 – Alan’s background and current role
04:44 – Risk premium and fixed income
24:33 – Setbacks and drawdowns
26:45 – Inflation
35:06 – Interest rates, bonds and dividends
43:22 – Asset allocation and portfolio construction
46:18 – Alan’s role at Eighteen48 Partners
48:33 – David Swensen and the Yale Approach
50:15 – Risks of private equity strategies
52:16 – Good vs. bad investment processes
55:00 – Managing investment teams
56:52 – Book recommendations
01:01:06 – Summary by Niels
The post 4 Allocator Series: Insights from the Queens Bank CIO ft. Alan Higgins — March 2nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:49 – Macro recap from Niels
06:40 – Weekly review of performance
16:35 – Thoughts on Niels, Rich & Jerrys’ LinkedIn conversation with Harold De Boer of TransTrend
23:16 – Q1; Frank : How do you see Trend Following strategies fitting into the ESG space?
31:43 – Why we developed the Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report
51:55 – Q2; Steve : What else causes a long-term price trend if endogenous shocks are the initial cause?
01:09:39 – Shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term Trend Following
01:15:11 – The power of Trend Following during this period of heightened uncertainty
01:20:14 – Benchmark performance update
01:22:12 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
The post 181 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – February 27th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * The outlook for inflation * Achieving high performance consistently * How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly * Mean variance optimisation * Whether this time is different * Selecting the right manager * Simplifying complexity for better understanding
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:30 – Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world
04:55 – Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets
06:52 – Managing a public fund versus a private fund
08:14 – Performing above expectations
09:38 – The current outlook for inflation
11:31 – How to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation
13:57 – Fixed income versus real assets
14:51 – Categorising asset classes effectively
19:56 – The limits of mean variance optimisation
21:59 – Using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making
24:09 – Whether this time is different
25:25 – Difficulties in the manager selection process
28:35 – Choosing between macro and systematic investors
30:08 – The pitfalls of investing with macro traders
32:40 – Investing in a manager who includes crypto in their portfolio
34:34 – Allocating between systematic and discretionary managers
36:45 – How to screen for a good money manager
40:44 – How to respond when a manager is underperforming
43:48 – Process over outcome
47:04 – Working with consultants
52:27 – Lessons from a leadership coach
57:00 – Simplifying complex ideas for better communication
01:00:28 – Advice for aspiring allocators
The post 3 Allocator Series: Lessons from a $25 billion CIO ft. Elizabeth Burton — February 23rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:02 – Weekly recap from Niels
04:39 – Weekly review of performance
23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?
28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk
42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?
47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum
01:00:58 – Molecule crisis and just-in-case commodities with ESG unintended consequences
01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’
01:15:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:52 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
The post 180 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – February 20th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * Ever-changing market correlations * Strategic asset allocation * Responding to interest rate changes * Achieving utility maximisation * Mean variance analysis * Portfolio diversification * Treasury bonds * High performance teams * Simplifying complexity
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn or at T. Rowe Price & get his book Beyond Diversification.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:52 – Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry
07:45 – How Sebastien’s book came about
09:39 – Current view on the markets
13:37 – How to position portfolios for the year ahead and beyond
18:41 – The current outlook for equities and the sectors within
19:43 – Investing in a rising interest rate environment
24:06 – Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets
27:04 – Approaches to strategic asset allocation
33:24 – Defining and achieving utility maximisation
37:48 – The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis
41:49 – Using scenario analysis
47:41 – Distributions during different market regimes
55:12 – How to properly diversify a portfolio
58:51 – The durability of treasury bonds
01:05:18 – Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams
01:07:58 – Achieving a state of ‘flow’
01:10:58 – Simplifying complex financial topics
The post 2 Allocator Series: Properly Diversifying a $1.6 Trillion Portfolio ft. Sebastien Page— February 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:16 – Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes
02:36 – Macro recap from Niels
05:29 – Weekly review of returns
09:55 – How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets
18:29 – Trend Following in rising interest rate environment
25:19 – Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio
36:12 – The future of the 60 / 40 portfolio
46:53 – Some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s Allocator Series
52:43 – Why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following
01:01:56 – Benchmark performance update
The post 179 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – February 12th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * Better education around capital allocation * Allocating capital throughout various market cycles * How to define an ‘alternative investment’ * How actively we should manage a portfolio * Traditional versus alternative investments * The difficulties in the manager selection process * Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator * Difficult conversations with clients * Advice for aspiring capital allocators
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Phil on Twitter or at Savant Wealth Management & get his book The Allocators Edge.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:44 – How 2022 has been for allocators so far
03:13 – Phil Huber’s journey into investing
05:46 – Why Phil wrote a book on capital allocation
09:00 – The typical clients, and types of portfolios that Phil deals with
12:07 – The 60 / 40 portfolio and how it became so popular
18:49 – Adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles
22:37 – Defining ‘alternative investments’
30:27 – Choosing which strategies to invest in, and when to choose these strategies
37:45 – The extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed
39:36 – Traditional versus alternative investments
40:04 – The challenges of manager selection
49:51 – Cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator
53:09 – The importance of courage
54:55 – Managing difficult conversations with clients
01:01:68 – Advice for aspiring asset allocators
The post 1 Allocator Series: Adapting to Market Cycles ft. Phil Huber— February 9th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels and Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive and @rjparkerjr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:44 – Macro recap from Niels
05:24 – Weekly review of performance
11:51 – Jerry & Rich’s thoughts on Howard Mark’s opinion of Trend Following
24:46 – Why exit rules might be harder to create than entry rules
43:45 – Risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio
51:03 – The unpredictability of endogenous outliers
01:10:08 – The old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’
01:13:54 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:01 A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
The post 178 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – February 6th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * How market behaviour is often intertwined * Why Cem chose to manage outside capital * The thinking behind institutional market moves * How the global pandemic affected markets * Dealer flows * Feedback loops * Delta hedging
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:17 – Cem’s background and current work
19:18 – The decision to manage outside money
24:06 – The trades that institutions like to make
30:22 – Feedback loops within markets
34:17 – The dynamic between futures and options
51:15 – Using Econophysics to find hedging methods
53:40 – Building various volatility models and research using toy models
57:05 – Approaches to Delta hedging
01:00:11 – Changes to qualitative features of overnight indices
01:03:12 – Investment products on the VIX and effects on the S&P 500
01:10:09 – The feedback loop between inflation, deflation and central bank rate policies
01:20:01 – Whether or not there is an asymmetry between deflation and inflation risk
The post 10 Volatility Series: Why We All Need Volatility ft. Cem Karsan— February 2nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast .
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:36 – Macro recap from Niels
06:22 – Weekly review of performance
15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over discretionary investing?
41:24 – Making predictions on commodities and inflation
50:27 – How Fed policy affects the Trend Following environment
01:04:18 – The re-emergence of longer-term terms
01:13:43 – Benchmark performance update
The post 177 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – January 31st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * How quantum physics relates to financial markets * The mechanics behind price impacts * David’s new book, coming out soon * The magical characteristics of money * The power and unpredictability of sentiment * Weather and how it relates to financial markets * Central bank money creation and how effective it can be * Cognitive interference
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:54 – Conclusions from David's research you’ve done on weather forecasting?
04:33 – Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how?
07:12 – Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data?
12:46 – Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the markets?
17:41 – Can you explain how quantum physics relates to financial markets?
23:15 – Can you give a couple of examples of cognitive interference?
28:00 – Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?
42:28 – Can you talk about your new book, and what the title means?
45:24 -Does Modern Monetary Theory relate to the quantum physics analogy of something being created from nothing?
52:30 – Do you believe that money creation by central banks is unsustainable?
57:28 – Would you say that your work implies that minor tweaks to the framework are inadequate when it comes to the economy and investing?
The post 09 Volatility Series: The Magical Properties of Money ft. David Orrell — January 26th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Richard on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RichB118
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast .
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:19 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:41 – Macro recap from Niels
04:13 – Weekly review of performance
11:14 – Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?
17:22 – Q2; James: Do you treat correlated markets as individual markets or group them together?
21:24 – Q3; Adam: One system has a better average performance when looking at the backtest, and another system has a worse average performance in its backtest while having a large outlier, making its overall returns higher. Which system is better?
24:14 – Q4; Irving: How can I trade a 100 markets as an individual investor with capital limitations?
29:07 – Q5; James: How do you approach correlation risk management?
32:39 – The differences between Trend Following and the more common term ‘Trend Trading’
38:24 – Expanding on the theme of hunting for outliers, and how Jean Phillipe Bouchard’s research was useful in understanding the nature of outliers
01:01:53 – Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis
01:22:03 – What importance does it have that we’re changing the narrative around Trend Following?
01:25:32 – Benchmark performance update
The post 176 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – January 23rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * The extent to which news drives price action * How to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlations * Jean-Philippe Bouchaud’s journey into finance * The reliability of the Bloomberg terminal * Dimensional analysis * The inelastic market hypothesis * Standing out in the Systematic Investor space * Volatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency data
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Jean-Philippe on LinkedIn.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:38 – What area of physics did you work in, and how did you come into finance?
05:04 – Can you elaborate the paper you worked on, where you where you investigated the endogeneity of large price moves?
15:24 – How timely do you consider the Bloomberg feed to be? Is it quick enough?
19:18 – How do we stitch together the two ideas of micro market data
28:20 – Do you the believe in the research that is carried out using dimensional analysis?
32:58 – Do you think that the inelastic market hypothesis was driven by flows into passive vehicles?
37:13 – Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?
40:13 – Can you tell us about your journey so far with CFM?
50:21 – Do you still do Trend Following, and if so, how do you do it different from a standard Trend Follower?
52:08 – If you kill the beta in a Trend Following program, do you lose the convexity?
52:38 – What’s the relation between volatility and higher-frequency momentum systems, in your view?
The post 08 Volatility Series: Adaptation To Change ft. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud — January 19th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:24 – A huge thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
04:47 – Macro recap from Niels
08:17 – Weekly review of returns
11:01 – How has your new approach been working out, Rob?
19:33 – Q1; John: How should I approach risk-per-contract?
27:41 – Q2; Patrick: What is your opinion on investing a fixed percentage of free-cash balance?
34:30 – Q3; Frederick: Do professional Trend Followers pyramid positions?
46:24 – Q4; Michael: Which full-size contract would you say is a ‘must-have’ in your portfolio?
01:01:19 – Q5; Rene: When it comes to trading CFDs, how can I deal with changing transaction fee percentages?
01:09:55 – Q6; Michael: Do you have any advice for a 34-year old who wants to enter the managed futures industry? Has Rob ever considered starting his own fund?
01:15:52 – Q7; James: How far back should we look when measuring correlations?
01:23:27 – Benchmark performance update
The post 175 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – January 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio * Dave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’ * The importance of compounding * Dave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolio * Long-volatility Bitcoin strategies * Value investing in the volatility space * Methods for taking profits * Sizing portfolio allocations
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Dave on LinkedIn.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:01 – How did you end up in the long-volatility sector?
04:55 – How options used to be considered as a redundant trading method
07:53 – Do you have any idea why the Bitcoin skew is so high and flat?
08:56 – What does it mean when you say you consider yourself a value-buyer of volatility?
10:15 – Do you have any notion how to mix the various positions you warehouse?
15:46 – How do you source good ideas, and has living in Singapore given you an edge for this?
27:12 – Can you talk about the Taliban’s use of the ‘Sandpile Theory’?
33:13 – Are there more opportunities for you globally now, then there used to be?
40:51 – What are your mechanisms for taking profits?
47:19 – What’s your view on paying for convexity in your positions?
51:13 – Do you engage in skew trades?
52:41 – How do you think about low-vol?
55:49 – How do you size allocations to your long-vol strategy?
01:01:49 – Closing thoughts from Dave?
The post 07 Volatility Series: Participate & Protect ft. Dave Dredge — January 12th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Alan on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @alanjdunne
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:58 – Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes
02:34 – Macro recap from Niels
05:02 – Weekly review of returns
12:22 – Q1: Brett; How do you define a drawdown?
13:48 – Alan, what is your background and path to the CTA industry?
19:32 – Announcement of new Top Traders Unplugged ‘Allocator’ series
20:49 – What inspired you to write your highly-regarded paper on Trend Following?
01:04:08 – Benchmark performance update
The post 174 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – January 10th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.