Rethink Energy Podcast: Recent Episodes
Rethink Research
The Rethink Energy Podcast complements Rethink Energy's weekly strategy bulletin, as we dive deeper into the dynamic factors of the energy market. From offshore wind to carbon credits, we discuss the week's key issues, while providing insight into our own research and forecasts to explore where momentum is building through the energy transition.
The team: Harry Morgan, Peter White, Andries Wantenaar and Simon Thompson
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- The US will default to a nuclear-centric energy strategy as nuclear enjoys bipartisan support from policymakers - unlike either renewables or fossil fuel plants. More broadly worldwide, the growing need to pair intermittent renewables with energy storage is eroding their perceived cost advantage over nuclear energy - although this depends on local wind and solar conditions.
- China now accounts for 30% of global manufacturing, and still growing - but its future competitive advantage, under the hood, will be very different in future compared to today and yesterday.
- 144 GWh of energy storage supply deals were signed between Chinese OEMs and overseas customers in the first five months of 2025 alone - up over 400% year-on-year, and with only 3.4 GWh of it destined for the US.
- Flying cars are being brought to market by several major EV manufacturers in 2025 and 2026 - and their demand for weight efficiency will boost adoption of autonomous driving and all-solid-state batteries, even if those technologies are too expensive for standard EVs.
- Chinese OEMs have unveiled a new tranche of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers as the SNEC exhbition - bringing cost-effective green hydrogen one step closer.
- Virtual Power plant adoption is heading towards a scale of perhaps 10% of grid generating capacity by 2030 and 20% by 2040 - with a mutually reinforcing relationship between VPP adoption, Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) payments, and EV market penetration likely to manifest in future.
- Rio Tinto has announced a further $900 million investment into lithium mining in Chile - we discuss the inexorable logic that today's 2x overcapacity will give way, due to constantly growing demand, to a second lithium shortage within the next 10 years.
- JinkoSolar's whitepaper on their latest TOPCon solar module, which boasts 24.8% efficiency, demonstrates that technological progress in silicon PV has yet to slow - but there are only five years left before the theoretical Shockley-Queisser limit on photovoltaic performance per square meter is effectively reached. After that, perovskites will be the primary remaining avenue for further research.
- With Republicans sabotaging renewables and Democrats bound to push out fossil fuels, nuclear stands to benefit as the 'least interfered with' option. President Trump has signed a new EO upping the Biden 2050 target of 200 GW, to 400 GW of nuclear power - to include 10 constructions beginning by 2030, and this is backed by data center hyperscalers, which combine massive future electricity demand growth and the necessary private funds to support nuclear projects.
- California curtailed almost 1 TWh of wind and solar in the month of April, even as batteries ramp up to discharge 10 GW each evening.
- The China Hydropower Research Institute has released a sweeping report into renewable energy capex - in which the most surprising finding is that compressed-air energy storage is cheaper upfront than lithium energy storage batteries, if there's a natural salt cavern to use - and scarcely more expensive even with artificial excavation.
- In this episode Toronto-based energy consultant and analyst Ed Ho joins us to discuss the present situation of the nuclear power industry - and the prospects for future deployments.
- We ask - what is the "true" cost of nuclear power - is it more like the recent Western new-build overruns on cost and construction time which resulted in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) north of $150 per MWh due to repeated overruns, or is the surface-level $40 per MWh for nuclear power on South Korea's power market more realistic?
- The discussion also covers prospects for several major future markets such as Poland and the US - and the potential for South Korea's KEPCO to develop projects in other countries as it has so successfully with the Barakah power plant in the UAE.
Both the EV power battery industry and the energy storage industry have grown over 60% year-on-year in Q1, according to various statistics - but even a fourfold growth in demand could be acommodated by the existing production capacity of lithium, as the energy storage segment can respond to future raw material price hikes by adopting alternative chemistries like vanadium-flow and sodium-ion.
China will implement a major new power market reform next month, introducing Contracts for Difference (CfDs) and an ancillary services market which will greatly increase the revenue of battery energy projects. Renewable additions will slow down compared to the immense boom of the past two years, but the battery energy storage industry needed this - it needs to switch to organic market-driven growth, rather than an unsustainable co-location requirement based paradigm which resulted in poor-quality installations and a 50% utilization rate.
The biggest consequence for the rest of the world will simply be that China's power prices are not significantly shifting as it shifts from coal plus hydro, over to new energy. China's competitive advantage is going nowhere.
- South Korea is to develop a 3.2 GW, $13 billion offshore wind complex - which will also require transmission expansions to deliver power to load centers.
- Poland's nuclear development deal with Bechtel and Westinghouse has been renewed - with as much as $51 billion and six reactors at stake, with wind and solar possibly insufficient as the main national energy strategy.
- The US' battery supply from China is obstructed by tariffs - while US and Indian manufacturing efforts have yet to reach anything like the necessary scale to replace China.
In this episode we spoke to Tina Anderson, Head of Sales at Hystar, a Norwegian electrolyzer manufacturer with 100 MW production capacity - growing towards 4.5 GW. We cover topics including ramping up and down to react to electricity prices - as well as providing demand response services to the grid, the production cost of hydrogen electrolysis, and the policy environment in Europe.
- Spain's massive blackout vindicates the investments being made into synchronous condensers and grid-forming inverters in Australia and northern China. While an official post-mortem has not been released yet for Spain's blackout, South Australia's 2016 blackout may provide a close parallel - including the policies adopted afterwards to stop it from happening again.
- Thermal energy storage is being adopted at scale in China in order to provide heat to industry - with molten salt tanks installed in pilots at coal power plants.
- The solar industry's silver paste consumption is roughly equal in scale to the global silver shortage - we discuss the prospects of adopting alternatives to intensive silver paste use.
In this episode, we spoke to Randall Bowen, Managing Director of Voltalis UK – the biggest European demand-side flexibility operator. Of particular interest to the UK's energy strategy is its GW-scale fleet of storage heaters, which are not currently responsive to spot market electricity prices. When the relevant authorities give their stamp of approval for Voltalis to install its devices, they will become part of grid flexibility – a crucial step given the UK’s struggles with other types of grid development.
Voltalis is a French company with 1,500,000 integrated appliances across more than 200,000 residential and commercial buildings in Europe, now expanding into the UK.
- Australia's pumped hydro fleet now promises over 500 GWh of storage capacity - meaning the county is set to be a world leader (or leader of the West) on pumped hydro, mostly with 10-hour duration, just as it was a world leader on BESS adoption.
- President Trump has mauled the offshore wind industry by calling Empire Wind 1's approvals into question - in an even harsher move than we'd expected.
- Solar manufacturing is down 45% year-on-year, as output declines back towards the 600 GW "plateau" value of demand - which the world will struggle to accelerate beyond.
- Trump's tariffs mark a redoubled shift of the US away from free trade, but it's hard to find a direct impact on renewables - since the US was already a hostile policy environment, and the rest of the world already had Chinese overcapacity.
- The UK and South Korea are both considering zonal pricing reforms to their power markets, which would rationally push industries to move closer to renewable energy power projects, but may disadvantage renewables and South Korea's KEPCO.
- Trina Solar and Oxford PV's technology licensing deal is big news for perovskites - but it's still hard to say how far away commercialization is.
- Silver paste usage in solar cell manufacturing remains at around 10 mg/W, or 10 tons per GW, and the global silver demand remains elevated at 20% higher than supply even since 2021 - with the solar industry accounting for 20% of all demand for silver worldwide. This is causing a constant increase in the price of the metal, which has doubled from pre-pandemic levels and is still rising. There are negative feedback mechanisms such as adoption of copper electroplating, and recycling of lower-purity waste, but there's a lot more room for price rises before these are worth implementing in a way which would seriously alter supply or demand. The same supply-demand gap and constant gradual price rises can be expected to persist for some time.
In this episode we spoke to Chris Hyde, senior Sales Manager and Meteorologist at Meteomatics - a company which forecasts the weather for the energy sector. Forecasting data is useful for everything from deciding where to build wind and solar power plants, to deciding when to discharge batteries in light in expected wind-solar power output and demand on the grid, to deciding when the schedule maintenance operations.
Meteomatics is a Swiss company established across Europe and expanding its operations in the US - especially Texas.
- Trina Solar has announced a 3.1 square meter, 808-Watt silicon-perovskite tandem solar module, which with 26% efficiency is better than any module on the market today - but extra manufacturing cost and a shorter lifespan means the upcoming semiconductor is not across the finish line yet.
- Texas has adopted a power market reform under which 50% of new power plant development in the state to be "dispatchable" - which in this case is defined to mean gas, not batteries. Utilities and power plant owners not complying with the 50% requirement will have to pay a reliability fee as compliance.
- RWE and TotalEnergies have signed a 30,000-ton annual green hydrogen supply deal to run from 2030 to 2044 - how can green hydrogen production become cost-effective in the context of the German energy crisis?
- Kelin Electric has announced an intention to raise $200 million for a 1 GW perovskite cell and module factory - but its product offering appears to be the peculiar single-junction, full-weight type being pursued by several Chinese companies, which has a less obvious business case compared to tandems.
- Spain's utility Iberdrola is upgrading its pre-existing hydropower reservoirs to pumped hydro - a huge potential storage reservoir for Western Europe.
- The UK has announced it will expedite offshore wind permitting times, potentially halving lead times in the world's second-largest market for such projects
- Some perovskite solar manufacturers have raised the funding they need to fund mass production and commercialisation - but many others haven't yet, in the context of economic uncertainty and a looming recession.
- Data centers are pursuing a mixture of renewable energy, gas, and nuclear power to ensure they have a supply of sustainable, reliable and affordable power, in a microcosm of the energy trilemma
- A 2,600-kilometer submarine HVDC line has been proposed to link New Zealand and Australia - with huge arbitrage potential across demand peaks over a 2-hour timezone distance.
- Europe's leadership has proposed a $100 billion clean manufacturing fund - is this enough to finally shore up domestic manufacturing in the face of China and the US' Inflation Reduction Act?
- German elections have seen the Green Party sidelined and a centre-right government taking power - but this seemingly won't be enough to prompt a restoration of mothballed nuclear plants, even as German industry shrank for the seventh quarter in a row due to energy costs.
- The IEA has published a report on the lengthening lead times and supply bottlenecks for transmission infrastructure - this problem will shape Western energy deployments for decades to come, skewing investments in favour of distributed resources and microgrids.
- Flexible solar panel products are appearing using silicon cells, demonstrating that the limiting technology is more the encapsulation solution rather than the need for flexible semiconductors such as perovskite.
- HD KSOE is exploring the development of a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) built into a container ship - and floating nuclear could be useful off US coasts as well.
In this episode of Rethink Energy Talks, we're joined by Joe Dutton, Axis Capital's Innovation Lead, to discuss the role of insurance in the renewable energy sector, beginning with offshore wind and Chinese imports, then expanding to a sweeping discussion of the energy transition as a whole.
- China will switch its renewable energy power projects over to market-based pricing from June 1st 2025, while also abolishing battery co-location requirements, following on from ever steeper time-of-day pricing, and a 2024 reform which introduced capacity payments for coal and gas plants. China's reform parallel the more gradual reforms cutting Feed-in tariffs and Net Metering across multiple Western markets.
- The Trump Administration intends to boost domestic oil and gas production and exports - this is bad news for renewable energy investments worldwide, as would a loosening of sanctions on Russia, but transmission is the main limiting factor in many mature markets anyway.
- Compressed-air energy storage (CAES) is being built out in artificial excavations in China at prices which aren't wholly worse than lithium-ion BESS, considering the relative youth of the technology.
- Perovskites and solid-state batteries face the same problem - the mainstream technologies of silicon PV and LFP batteries are already cheap and high quality, and are also still improving their quality, preventing a 'moving target' to the more innovative future replacement.
- As the Baltic states switch synchronization from the Russian to the Western European grid, construction will soon begin at an Estonian pumped hydro project with deep underground excavation works. meanwhile Norway has backed off from an offshore wind expansion which would have increased its international transmission connection across the North Sea.
- Australia's CSP company, Vast, is working towards FiD at its Port Augusta project - concentrated solar power is niche, but by no means dying off.
- China's north is the most likely site for the world's green hydrogen, but actual project construction remains low in absolute terms, with more price improvement needed to become truly profitable.
In this episode of Rethink Energy Talks, we're joined by Jorg Heinemann, CEO of Enervenue - whose nickel-hydrogen energy storage batteries promise 30,000-cycle lifespan, enduring draining to zero, partial discharge, and potentially scaling to up to 12 hours of storage duration. So this is a long-duration energy storage battery product, with manufacturing now being scaled up, but with other points of appeal too, such as being made in the US.
- With DeepSeek and other LLMs achieving reduced energy intensity, data centers in the US can still add easily 40 TWh of power demand per year - under President Trump, some of this will be met by gas plants.
- Batteries have replaced gas plants in the new-build category in the Polish and UK capacity markets - but when will the capacity market be designed around long-duration storage instead?
- Western wind OEMs have posted restored profits and have returned to the pursuit of large-size turbine designs, after a multi-year period of cost pressure.
- DeepSeek and other new AI models promise the same performance for one order of magnitude less power consumption - does this really change forecasts for load on the grid?
- China's battery exports are up 17.1% year-on-year in December by volume - but the dollar value was stuck at $60 billion for 2024, the same as previous years, as prices decline and volume expands.
- Shandong Province provides some statistics about the interaction between EV ownership, Virtual Power Plant expansion, and EV charging power demand.
- The Trump Administration has quit the Paris Accords as is clearly opposed to wind power. But if the Administration doesn't support renewables, corporates will, as data centers add ever more load to the grid.
- The solar industry continues to post record manufacturing scale, demand, and low prices simultaneously - with Indian and US reshoring as the only dynamic stories alongside perovskite
- Comparing the capex costs between China and the West across different energy projects, it's clear that the bigger the project, the steeper the difference in investment cost - with HVDC lines, nuclear power, and offshore wind the most comparatively expensive in the West.
- Hydrostor has received a $1.76 billion loan guarantee from the Biden Administration for its compressed-air energy storage project in California - how does this technology compare to BESS?
- Australia's Victoria state is the latest government to slash solar feed-in tariffs, which will force distributed solar development into further battery adoption.
- China alone will manufacture 1.4 TWh of batteries this year, including almost 1 TWh of power batteries.
- Data center power demand will grow to between 6.7% and 12% of total US power demand by 2028, per a new report published by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory - growing to fit the grid.
- China's green hydrogen industry has achieved $1.6 per kilogram green hydrogen, but this still isn't cheap enough for mass adoption over grey hydrogen.
- Europe's negative power price periods become ever more frequent, further incentivizing battery developments.
- The global solar industry will install over 500 GW this year, with a final module cost of just $95 per kW as overcapacity continues to mount
- Nexwafe posts 24.4% cell efficiency built on its wafers made via epitaxial deposition - a significantly cheaper alternative for the solar supply chain
- Sodium-ion and vanadium-flow chemistries have continued growth in the energy storage segment despite lithium's dominance
- China's export controls will spur further price increases for high-end semiconductor and other materials
- Battery prices set for consistent gradual decline through 2025 and beyond
- More investments into perovskite factories and pilot projects - is low-light performance good enough tyo conquer cloudy regions?
- China's perovskite sector keeps announcing new factories - but what's needed to produce a Minimum Viable Product solar panel using the new semiconductor?
- Germany's 215 GW solar target for 2030 implies up to $100 billion investment also needed in energy storage batteries on the grid.
- Policy contrast widens on Chinese EV import tariffs between US exclusion, Australian free trade, and EU indecision.
- Northvolt, Europe's flagship battery manufacturer, has filed for bankruptcy - in keeping with the region's weakness in upstream manufacturing.
- Entrion has patented a guyed monopile design which blurs the distinction between fixed-base and floating wind projects.
- China's government has issued tighter guidelines for solar manufacturing investments - in a case of locking the stable door after the horse has bolted.
- China has exported 116 GWh of energy storage batteries and battery systems in the first 10 months of 2024, indicating 140 GWh full-year and a global manufacturing scale well north of 200 GWh, meaning the industry is grow between 50% and 100% year on year
- India became a net exporter of solar equipment in Q2 - and with President Trump in office, India is very likely to become the main supplier of solar wafers to the US industry in the future.
- All-solid-state batteries are still years away from being a mature product for the EV industry - but have begun to be used in the lucrative eVTOL market.
- The EV industry's initial adoption of solid-state batteries remains set for 2027, just one of the quality upgrades which will offset the pain inflicted by tariffs.
- Global solar manufacturing has fallen by over one-third if you measure from the historic peak in March 2024 to October, with the industry's growth decelerating amidst module stockpiling, while price cannibalization forces investment into co-located battery energy storage.
- The looming Trump Administration has identified fracking CEO Chris Wright as its pick for Energy Secretary - but will oil and gas production really expand in such a way as to reduce energy prices, thus undercutting the motive to invest in renewables?
- The second Trump Administration will disrupt the energy transition in three ways - disrupting equipment imports, cutting federal funding, and preserving the fossil fuel industry.
- Energy storage batteries will go from strength, with ever more price volatility including negative pricing on the one hand, and consistently low manufacturing costs on the other.
- Carbon fiber production capacity already reached 300,000 tons in 2023, with Chinese companies looking to double it again, allowing the wind industry to expand its usage of the expensive material.
In this episode of Rethink Energy Talks, we're joined by Paul Moonie, CEO of Australia's perovskite company Halocell, to discuss perovskites' performance in low-light conditions, dusk, and dawn - starting with a Microquanta test from a few months ago in which perovskites had 38% more usable light-hours under 75% cloud cover compared to standard silicon. We also discuss Halocell's various routes to market and research efforts.
In this week's episode, the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- The true price of China's solar panels - they're being sold below cost, but how far below cost?
- Carbon fiber production capacity is set to expand dramatically, courtesy of China, with just three factories in the past couple of months amounting to 82,000 tons - half of global demand
- India's $386 billion in energy transition finance pledges heavily feature solar manufacturing expansion - but how much wafer output will they achieve?
- Li Auto has disclosed some details of its AI-centered approach to Full Self Driving (FSD) development - including the size of its database and the scale and cost of the necessary computing capacity.
In this week's episode, the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- The 14th ICAO Air Navigation Conference has called for streamlining regulatory processes for implementing new aircraft designs which will accompany the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel, hydrogen and battery power.
- Rethink Energy has published a new forecast on perovskites - which will take over the solar industry by 2040, with certain segments being revolutionized ahead of 2030. Solar's quality improvements will keep rolling in through 2050 and beyond.
- Carbon fiber prices have almost halved in the past 14 months in China - allowing wider usage in wind turbines.
In this week's episode, the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Tandem perovskite modules are being shipped to customers by Caelux, Oxford PV and others - these are still small-scale trial shipments, but this signifies that the technology has reached the threshold of parity on lifetime power output with conventional silicon modules.
- Per a new study from Boeing, 12% of global feedstock requirement for SAF could be met from South-East Asia alone - but SAF's logistical hurdles extend beyond simple creation of the feedstock.
- Typhoon Yagi has destroyed some wind turbines - but for the most part the disaster has acted as a proof of reliability for the new plus-size turbines deployed in south China.
In this week's episode, the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Hydrogen has a little-explored route into the trucking segment, with hydrogen-fired combustion engines offering lower Capex than battery EVs.
- Australia has committed $1 billion AUD to solar manufacturing - but this only enough for the module segment, plus something more in the cell segment - maybe perovskites? Also in Australia, the value of curtailed energy per year, if stored and dispatched, is growing rapidly towards a similar $1 billion per year.
In this episode of Rethink Energy talks, we're joined by Tyler Hortin, CEO of Lion Energy, to discuss the future of battery energy storage in the US.
That includes Lion Energy's use of technology such as EMS and BMS to optimise charge and discharge timing, integrating multiple demand and supply sources as well as accounting for electricity price variation on the grid. We also discuss the US reshoring agenda, the indefinite dominance of lithium-iron phosphate, and the rapid growth of the battery segment.
In this episode of Rethink Energy Talks we're joined by Nicola Battey, Director of Sustainability at Hometree - a residential installer of heat pumps, solar panels and batteries in the UK.
We discuss the adoption of heat pumps and other residential energy systems - including why the UK is behind mainland Europe, and the abrupt rise to viability of batteries, even without a photovoltaic system.
In this week's episode, the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- South Korea's hydrogen fuel cell powered tram system, due for mid-2028 - and why such experiments should be shelved in favour of electric power.
- The US now has one wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV) compliant with the Jones Act - but its final cost came to $715 million, larger than the original $500 million price tag from back in 2020, and double the usual global price. This represents another cost factor hindering the nascent US offshore sector.
- JetZero's decision to go with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) for its blended wing-body (BWB) airline design will prove a mistake in the long run, with hydrogen set to take over the industry over time.
- Natron Energy has announced a 24 GW sodium-ion battery factory in the US, geared towards short-duration, high-power applications such as EV fast charging infrastructure and securing industrial power supply.
In this week's episode, the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Hazer Group's turquoise hydrogen production pilot scheme and whether the synthetic graphite byproduct will compensate for the cost of its high energy intensity.
- China has produced 100 GWh of energy storage batteries in H1 2024 - showing the continued rapid growth of the BESS industry to accompany wind and solar at scale.
- Ming Yang's 16.6 MW dual-rotor wind turbine has put out to sea - but floating wind is always going to be more expensive than fixed-base, which in turn is more expensive than onshore.
In this week's episode , the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- ClearVue's Building-Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) glass, and the startup's latest agreement with Alu-Tec WLL to foster distribution of its products through the MENA region.
- Illinois has introduced a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) incentive - not steep enough to close the gap with jet fuel, but another step toward the new industrial segment.
- NREL's latest offshore wind transmission research, which includes a description of a $100 billion intra-regional HVDC backbone stretching from North Carolina to New Hampshire - going far beyond the limited approach of connecting each project to the shore piecemeal.
In this week's episode , the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Solar manufacturing output has stalled for the first time in over a decade, passing 50 GW a month in June 2023 - a level from which it first grew to 70 GW, before shrinking back to 50 GW in June 2024. This reinforces the reality of vast solar equipment stockpiles, and that the new limiting factor on project development is transmission.
- A hydrogen demonstrator flight should be achieved in 2026 by KLM and ZeroAvia - and with SAF-based pilot flights already achieved a few years back, that means the gap between the two aviation fuel routes has widened to the better part of a decade. But the bigger SAF gets, the bigger hydrogen, which is a feedstock for SAF, also has to become. And the slower hydrogen adoption is now, the more sudden and steep it will be when it finally takes off.
In this episode of Rethink Energy Talks, we're joined by Duncan Burt, the Chief Strategic Growth Officer at Reactive Technologies, a pioneering grid frequency stability company which measures the stability of power grids around the world.
These measurements replace the old method of modelling - enabling grid operators to know for certain exactly how far they have to go to maintain the stability of the grid, whether by curtailing renewable outputs or investing in infrastructure. As much as 25% of all curtailment is already related to frequency concerns, rather than outright transmission constraints or excess supply compared to demand.
In this week's episode , the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- China's ammonia-coal co-firing pilot scheme, and how otherwise-curtailed renewable energy could help to make green ammonia affordable. China curtailed 17 GWh of its wind and solar in 2023.
- First Solar's TOPCon patent investigation which is looking to inconvenience its silicon-based rivals - and how First Solar will pursue next-gen photovoltaic technology in future, looking beyond single-junction.
- The offshore wind breakage issue, and how incidents like the recent one at Vineyard One will interfere with risk perception and project financing, even if there is no broader reliability problem lurking like the one which came out with Siemens Gamesa last year.
In this week's episode , the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Oregon-based startup Origami Solar's plan to manufacture steel solar module frames for the US market - and how that matches up to aluminum.
- Archer Aviations' electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft are to be used as air taxis alongside Southwest Airlines' operations at Californian airports - but finding a profit margin may be tough.
- Chile and Saudi Arabia have announced monumental battery energy storage fleets - with Saudi's coming alongside a spate of Chinese solar panel and wind turbine factory announcements in the country.
In this week's episode , the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Microquanta's perovskite test in Quzhou City indicates that even single-junction perovskites have an advantage over silicon PV with their performance under heavy cloud cover
- Shell's SAF facility pause calls into question the future of SAF, with cost concerns liable to see it lose market share in the future market to hydrogen
In this week's episode , the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- China's battery industry advance now includes the Chinese government assuming direct ownership of the rare earths sector.
- Fervo Energy commissions a 400 MW geothermal plant in Utah, the state's first - with EGS technology enabling geographically broader options for the geothermal industry.
- The 2024 US election is a threaten to the green hydrogen industry - but biofuels may retain bipartisan support.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- South Korean nuclear power's reported cost of just $40 per MWh on the Korea Power Exchange strikes a stark contrast with US newbuild nuclear LCOE of $180 per MWh based on the Vogtle 3&4 construction cost blowout - several explanations have to be brought to bear to explain this vast discrepancy.
- South Korea's nuclear power ambitions are being ramped up consistently under President Yoon, with billions allotted to R&D around Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and a pilot project pink hydrogen production scheme being agreed this month.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:The latest SNEC Exhibition in Shanghai, the biggest conference in the solar industry, shows that technological upgrading continues, with some silicon PV modules over 25%, and the first perovskites brought to market by Microquanta and Utmolight in the BIPV sector.
Norway's hydropower fleet is getting gradually outscaled by rising electricity demand - prompting the country to join the ranks of Nordic governments considering a nuclear-powered energy strategy.
Conrad Oakey of Novatech Automation, which runs 25% of US substations, joins us to discuss grid automation. The US grid is seeing a resurgence of demand growth amidst supply chain re-onshoring, EV adoption, and data center build out. It's also changing in quality, with demand and supply becoming much less predictable over time. "You have to electrify and automate everything in order to reach net-zero on time." says Oakey. "Those devices in your house, that grid-forming inverter on your solar panel, needs communication with the grid. And as the grid becomes more and more varied in its generation sources, we have to sense and adapt, rather than the old mode of plan and predict. That means more points of measurement and automation and control, with-fidelity and low-latency data for system operators."
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- New Zealand has lifted its ban on offshore oil and gas exploration, with the government expecting $6 billion investment - a similar sum would build 1 GW of wind-solar for each million citizens.
- GCL Technology is to build an FBR granular polysilicon factory in the UAE - one of several proposals from Chinese solar manufacturers made over the past 12 months. If they all go ahead, this future 'Gulf state solar industry' across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman would be big enough to supply the entire EU or US market.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- The EU's adoption of the Net Zero Industry Act is still just a preliminary step, allowing national subsidies for manufacturing - we remain sceptical. Solar wafer production, for example, is better off under the low cost conditions of India.
- Shell has contracted UK equipment manufacturer Ceres to develop a pressurized solid-oxide electrolyzer (SOEC), for use in high-heat industries - relying on free heat provision to sustain more power-efficient electrolysis.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- The Biden Administration doubles down on solar tariffs - but the more important move to protect US solar manufacturing is a new round of Department of Commerce anti-dumping investigations.
- Gotion has joined its fellow Chinese giants in releasing a fast-charging lithium iron phosphate battery, stating that this will deliver 500km range off a 10-minute charging time.
- In the US, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption will continue to languish until a political decision is made and EU-style minimum-usage targets are imposed.
Neil Spann, CEO of Power Roll, joins us to discuss the British startup's microgroove technology. The main development angle which the company is pursuing for these microgrooves is a unique photovoltaic cell-module architecture which can be used for thin-film solar - for now, that means perovskites. We discuss the state of the solar market, of the Building-Integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) sector, of perovskite adoption in general - and the specifics of Power Roll's technology and its plans for manufacturing scaleup and commercialization.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Several liquid carbon dioxide energy storage (LCES) projects have now come online in the past few years - with perhaps 1 GWh total worldwide of what may constitute a more efficient and powerful version of compressed-air technology.
- Pink hydrogen production agreements have become a minor trend for scandinavian nuclear power plants. Nuclear's status as consistent green power which however can't easily load-follow and thus can end up as cheap "excess" power makes it a natural fit for electrolyzers, and Europe has a large nuclear fleet with many decades of potential lifespan remaining.
Philip Hodges, Country Market Director Energy UK at engineering and consultancy company Ramboll, joins us to discuss heat pump adoption in the UK - and related topics of building energy efficiency, district energy, and industrial decarbonization.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- China and the US are both set to double both their rate of battery installations and their cumulative battery capacity on the grid in 2024 - making batteries the third main type of renewable energy project development alongside wind and solar.
- The US sanctions on Russian uranium fuel - and how Kazakhstan's mined uranium can still find its way to the US market despite Russia having a plurality of enrichment and hexafluoride conversion production capacity.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Rethink Energy's latest forecast, predicting that VPPs take a major role in the energy transition, with efficient use of battery energy storage ultimately requiring the complex forecasting of demand and supply which VPP software offers
- BHP's bid to buy Anglo-American, which would have given the former over 10% of global copper supply
- Why liquid hydrogen can be a cost-competitive form of hydrogen transportation, in light of its high energy requirement for conversion being paid at the source
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Silver paste usage in the solar industry continues to rise, but the steeper the silver shortage gets, the more alternatives like copper metallization and zero-busbar are incentivized.
- Interest rates have obstructed new investments including in copper mining - but the Federal Reserve intends to take rates down from 5.5% to 3.5% this year.
- Tesla's Q1 profit is down 55% year on year - but its shares are up and the company is shifting towards more relevant EV products.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- New sanctions have required the Chicago Metal Exchange and the London Metal Exchange refuse any new Russian copper, aluminum, and nickel - but this won't cause a price shock at all comparable to the first sanctions rounds.
- The prices of polysilicon and solar modules fell yet again, ending four months of price stability and prompting us to ask where the bottom line actually lies.
- Japan has invested in hydrogen fuel cell propulsion research which could lead to its domestic aviation being decarbonized ahead of many other places in the world - starting with its 66-strong turboprop fleet.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- The conclusions from the Hydrogen Europe conference in Amsterdam, including why gaseous hydrogen will take longer than liquid to get online in the market.
- The Department of Energy's $1.5 billion funding for a nuclear plant recommissioning in Michigan - which will give the facility a total 80 year lifespan.
- Janet Yellen's China trade visit, which seems unlikely to move the needle at all on Chinese exports - but does demonstrate a continued protectionist strategy from the US government.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- Huamin Technology's 40 micron thickness photovoltaic wafer, prompted by ferce cost competition in the solar industry - compare to 140 micron thickness in the industry as a whole.
- Chinese EVs are forecasted to grow to 25% market share in the EU this year, with no good options for European authorities trying to decide on a trade and reshoring strategy.
TandemPV's CEO Scott Wharton joins us to discuss his efforts to bring a perovskite tandem solar module product to market in the near future in the US, with utility-scale developers likely to be the first customers. We cover degradation and other technical hurdles, plus how perovskites fare in the current solar market situation - with steep silicon PV cost declines, trade barriers with China, and reshoring efforts including IRA incentives.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses:
- an astonishingly low $299 per kW pricetag for a 500 MW wind farm in Inner Mongolia - and while that's the record, there are others for just $320 per kW, which means LCOE has halved in a couple of years.
- The first E-diesel production facility in Texas, launched by Infinium, using a green hydrogen supply combined with C02 from Howard Energy Partners’ neighboring gas processing plant.
EnergyVault's Marco Terruzzin joins us to talk about his company's long duration gravity energy storage, lithium-iron batteries, and hydrogen storage - all backed up by the VaultOS management system.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- First Solar CEO Mark Widmar's warning that Chinese manufacturers are significant beneficiaries of the Inflation Reduction Act's 45x incentives, effectively making the US itself another location hosting downstream Chinese solar manufacturing.
- A startup has demonstrated 10-year lifespan for its SOEC electrolyzers, which are more efficient and cost-effective than ALK and PEM in theory, but have more technical hurdles to address.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- The new polysilicon factory ($1.3 billion, 100,000 tons, 40 GW) which is under construction in Oman, and who is likely behind it.
- Airbus's head of ZEROe hydrogen demonstrators, Mathias Andriamisaina, has stated that the company will need to make a choice between hydrogen combustion and fuel cells by some time in 2026 to 2027.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- The scale of solar manufacturing in 2023, with Chinese outputs up by 67% to 622 GW at the wafer level, while its wafer exports - almost the sole supply source for all solar cell manufacturing in the rest of the world - are up by over 90%.
- Multiple delayed green hydrogen investments and negative coverage may open a space for blue hydrogen, while still only representing a temporary problem for the scale-up of electrolysis-based hydrogen technologies.
ESS Inc's European Director Alan Greenshields joins us to talk about the role long duration energy storage has to play in the energy transition, and LEAG's major shift towards decarbonizing Germany's coal fleet with green power and batteries.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- Europe's hydrogen strategy is taking a turn towards blue hydrogen with several projects including new announcements in the UK and the Netherlands.
- Andrew Garrad and Henrik Stiesdal, two very august figures in the wind industry, have called for a halt to the proliferation of ever-larger wind turbine sizes.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- "When should your business open a hydrogen refuelling station?" - a question prompted by a slew of cancelled and closed hydrogen stations in California.
- China's pumped hydro boom continues, even as Western pumped hydro developments stagnate.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- The Australia Solar Manufacturing Roadmap, which advocates heavy incentives beyond even those of the IRA, while eschewing trade barriers.
- Germany's €16 billion tender for 10 GW of hydrogen-capable gas power plant capacity.
- Ascent Elements' hydro-to-cathode battery recycling method which promises an immediate 49% carbon footprint reduction, with a 90% goal for 2030.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- Norsk Hydro's investment into a US aluminum recycling plant, even at a time when the aluminum price is low - and how magnesium alloys will be adopted by the future EV industry as aluminum's replacement.
- How European green steel producers are benefiting from maritime disruption in the Gulf of Aden.
- Saudi Arabia identifying 1200 sites for green power projects alongside its commissioning of its first large utility-scale projects and its national survey for lithium and other mineral deposits.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- Rethink Energy's new forecast on Battery Raw Materials, covering the future of nickel, lithium and cobalt supply and demand - and much more.
- The world's first big turquoise hydrogen project, which has very high Capex costs but also produces carbon black as a byproduct.
- China's 100 GW rooftop solar boom in 2023, and how this is leading to grid congestion and potentially new distributed energy storage requirements.
In this week's episode the team discusses:
- An interview with Tandem PV CEO Scott Wharton, focusing in the issues of degradation, module size and efficiency in the lead-up to commercialization
- EU investigators' arrival in China, where they will investigate automakers BYD, Geely, and SAIC to determine how much government support they are receiving
- Oil tanker company Frontline's investment in a new fleet of not-green-enough ECO VLCC ships.
CATL has assigned the first $420 million of its $15 billion investment partnership with Indonesia, which together with an upcoming election may 'lock' the country's entire nickel industry into Chinese supply chains to the US' detriment. Meanwhile in the US, Inflation Reduction Act hydrogen tax credit requirements are proving too strict on the exact, immediate provenance of electricity consumption, in contrast to initially more lenient EU rules. Lastly, Australia's solar manufacturing may expand despite limited government support.
Geely has announced a fast-charging LFP battery which boasts an impressive 4.5C charging rate, enabling fast charging of up to 500 kW, marking another Chinese manufacturer stealing a march on Western producers. The UK has introduced a carbon tax legislation, soon to be further clarified, which is analogous to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Angola has quit the OPEC organisation in a context of mediocre oil prices.
Rethink Energy Interviews Longevity Partners' Chief Innovation Officer Ed Wealend, primarily talking about ESG within the built environment, Longevity's new power unit, and recent developments in the policy landscape including energy efficiency and heat pump targets.
2024's expected copper surplus has all but vanished as the Panamanian government has ordered First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine to cease output and Anglo American's output is expected to fall significantly. Maeve Aerospace is looking to commercialize hybrid jet fuel/battery aircraft later this decade when hydrogen should be well on its way to establishing itself as the leader within the industry.
Rethink Energy has published its new solar module price report covering the next 17 years of technological developments and the effect this will have on global supply chains. COP28 has given nuclear energy a significant boost despite the difficulties in bringing online new capacity. Finally the US treasury has released guidance on what exactly constitutes a foreign entity of concern, bringing massive implications for the structure of the future US battery industry.
In this episode, the team discusses why Chinese electrolyzer manufacturers are likely to take over the European market in the absence of any decisive protectionist policy. The UK publishes its national battery strategy, giving cause for optimism. Finally, European solar manufacturing is faltering under a deluge of Chinese modules made with cheaper electricity.
Global Q3 solar installations came to 105 GW, with 398 GW expected for the full year; Stellantis and CATL have agreed to jointly develop a battery technology roadmap for Stellantis' budget vehicles; and Japan Airlines is pushing hydrogen flights
Lithium chemical supply will more than triple by 2030, with mining investment remaining strong despite low prices. China's capacity market mechanism will secure the financial position of the country's 1,300 GW coal and gas fleet by introducing payments based on capacity, not just per kWh generated, as renewables reduce the utilization rate of coal-fired power stations. Two big hydrogen stocks have fallen this week, but this won't affect the mainline progress towards green hydrogen.
Europe's goal to source 15% of battery raw materials from recycling is proving unworkable as today's batteries are increasingly different from the old stock being recycled, and hydrometallurgical capacity is lacking; Over one-sixth of Germany's entire skilled workforce shortage for all industries can be attributed to the wind and solar sectors; and HIF Global's synthetic gasoline is a decarbonisation red herring.
Grid operator ElectraNet has announced that South Australia's grid will reach 100% net renewable energy at some point in 2026 or 2027, Poland's Nanopure Technology will begin selling LFP cathode additives by the end of the year, and state-owned enterprise China Energy Engineering Corporation is to develop a $7 billion green hydrogen complex in Egypt, intended to supply Europe.
In this week's episode the team discusses the European solar module stockpile, which may not be as large as previously reported, the massive impact which China's graphite export ban will have on the EV industry, and how the upcoming US Farm Bill will support the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
An Australian report has advocated $6.5 billion savings if the government were to adopted concentrated solar power, Rethink Energy latest figures find strongly positive developments globally across EV markets, and the European Union adopts an ambitious green hydrogen target.
China's solar manufacturing giants have begun criticizing each other's choice of next-gen silicon cell design, Rethink Energy has released a new report detailing an immense diversity of battery and anode routes through 2040, and Europe's solar module stockpile trends towards 100 GW.
LG Chem has entered LMFP manufacturing with a 50,000-ton cathode factory in Morocco. The UK threatens to be the weak link in a mooted UK-German hydrogen partnership. A new study has found 36 HVDC transmission lines which would begin construction across the U, serving 187 GW of renewables, if the policy environment was more favorable.
The solar industry's growth and its adoption of heterojunction technology will contribute to the global silver shortage in the short term. Oil majors' adoption of green hydrogen at refineries will ironically place them among the biggest patrons of green hydrogen, allowing for a sustained learning curve reducing product cost. And the UK has delayed its ICE vehicle sales ban from 2030 to 2035, angering activists and car makers alike.
Saudi Arabia and the United States are exploring a partnership which would see Saudi money invested in African mining assets, guaranteeing US customers a cut of production. Power Roll explains its microgroove perovskite technology which sees it produce adherable sheets which see kilowatts of panels transportable under the arms of installers. Vale has announced that it will be investing $25-$30 billion in assets focused around Indonesia, Brazil, and Canada as it looks to expand its nickel and copper output.
Companies such as Cummins, Tata, and Fortescue have all thrown their hats in the ring pursuing hydrogen internal combustion engine technology for heavy-duty freight purposes, but is it the right path to pursue for the climate? Saudi Arabia looks like it might be hosting a major polysilicon factory from China's GCL Technology, potentially enough to fuel Europe's solar needs for years to come. CATL has announced that its Shenxing battery will be produced at both its German and Hungarian plants once it has entered mass production, further strengthening the position of LFP in Europe.
Rethink Energy releases its newest report detailing the commercialization of perovskite solar technology and its future in surpassing silicon-based solar modules. Lithium batteries to see significant improvement this decade as silicon anodes and solid-state battery manufacturing mature and begin contributing significantly to volume manufacturing to the EV industry. Japan looks to source $100 billion in public and private investment towards the country's hydrogen industry.
Continued weak economic data from China and the refusal to provide the truly damning information has spooked industrial and base metal markets into receding as China's government continues to forego significant support. Aviation startup Boom Supersonic has claimed that its planes will be fully SAF compatible, reassuring airliners that supersonic flight will remain economically unviable. Perovskite module manufacturer TandemPV continues to bide its time before coming to market as it seeks further efficiencies it claims are a tooling and engineering challenge rather than in the uncertain lands of materials science.
China is on track to install 200GW of solar capacity this year, installing 25% more than the rest of the world combined which is expected to total 360GW for 2023. Hydrogen trains are being reassessed as Germany's LVNG pulls the plug and commits to battery-based locomotion instead. Albemarle has increased its revenue expectations for the year showing faith in its decision to move further towards market-linked pricing and the wider lithium industry's potential for the rest of the year.
The US Department of Defence is more than doubling its financial support of Lynas Rare Earth's Texas-based processing facilities in attempt to lessen reliance on China for strategic military and new energy components. Germany has doubled its hydrogen production targets bringing them closer to the predictions Rethink made a few months ago. Finally the team discusses how FirstSolar has doubled its evaluation over the last year and is the only remaining significant player in the CdTe solar space, keeping it out of harm's way from future escalations in the US-China trade war.
PPA indexation was the hot topic at a recent conference becoming a key trend for the wind industry in the first half of this year. The International Seabed Authority has voted to give itself two more years to finalize regulations necessary for it to grant mining licenses in the deep ocean, potentially delaying the decision to the middle of a commodities supercycle. 40 GW of solar modules are experiencing a long delay to deployment in Europe as demand is so robust that stockpiles become a necessity.
India's Tata Group - the parent company of Jaguar Land Rover - has announced its $5.2 billion 40 GWh battery factory in the UK, following a lengthy negotiating period with the UK government where it will receive significant subsidies. Germany has completed a €12.6 billion auction for offshore wind development which experienced negative pricing with significant interest from oil majors BP and TotalEnergies. Perovskite companies are deploying small scale projects in China, looking to prove its feasibility in high-humidity conditions.
Solar employment figures are set to increase dramatically up to 2035 before tapering off and becoming a replacement market. The elevated price of quartz sand will remain a problem for solar module manufacturers as supply increases remain years away, though substitutability will soften the impact somewhat. Norge Mining doubles the world's reserves of phosphate ore in boon for Europe's battery industry and global food security.
Countries from Spain to the UAE uprate solar targets in confirmation of continued solar demand increase. The battery industry still can't decide whether sodium ion batteries will take its place in the mobility sector, Rethink says pace of lithium expansion too fast for sodium to compete. Sustainable aviation fuel proponents celebrate minor milestone, still struggling to accept H2 reality.
In this week's episode the team discusses whether Iridium will represent a supply chain issue for the hydrogen industry, what we found out from an interview with perovskite company Solaires and how IRENA is struggling to grasp the concept of 'S-curve' investments when it talks about its global energy outlook.
Rethink Energy updates its battery manufacturing capacity forecast up to 2030 with the market growing by 50% yearly over the next 3 years as Europe and the US finally enter the ring, but will still fail to address China's stranglehold of the industry. Scandinavian solar deployments continue to impress considering the region's infamous lack of solar irradiance. Small modular reactor company Copenhagen Atomics targets $20/MWh heat through its thorium-liquid salt breeder reactor despite recent SMR cost increases.
Q1 2023 global solar deployment show the beginning of massive deployment over the course of the year, avoiding the traditional Q4 to Q1 downturn. Innolith comes out of stealth with a novel li-ion battery electrolyte promising 300Wh/kg in today's batteries and discussions with over 50 companies. Stellantis, Volkswagen, Glencore, and La Mancha collectively purchase two Brazilian nickel sulfide mines in preparation for Inflation Reduction Act regional restrictions.
Rethink Energy debuts its weekly supply chain pricing analysis piece which records and explains price movements throughout renewable energy supply chains. A litany of early stage solar technologies post efficiency breakthroughs. China's GOTION HIGH-TECH has signed an MoU with the Moroccan Government as the pair explore the possibility of up to $6.3 billion in battery gigafactory investments in the country.
In this week's episode the team talk about the future of maritime shipping and its viable decarbonization pathways, the state of the solar supply chain and our recent interview with long duration energy storage company Energy Vault.
In the week's episode the team discusses our latest global EV forecast to 2050, the new Chinese energy reforms which made storage profitable overnight and who is the mysterious company that claims it can achieve an LCOE of $20/MWh from novel SMR technology.
In this week's episode, the team discusses our latest report covering a forecast of the hydrogen industry to 2050, the state of the polysilicon market and how this will affect solar installs and First Solar spending $80 million to join the perovskite game.
Lithium producers Allkem and Livent announce their intended merger, potentially forming the 3rd largest lithium product company by intended output by the end of the year. China's Shandong province sees offshore fixed base solar investment. Nikola sells its joint venture with Iveco in full European exit as it focuses on commercializing within the remit of US incentives.
The global platinum industry is going to see demand shift away from automotive use in catalytic converters towards usage in PEM electrolyzer markets, creating shortages arising from supply issues in South Africa. Q1 solar manufacturing has increased between 50-100% year-on-year depending on how you look at it. Meanwhile the US' Republican party continues its attempt to sabotage its own domestic solar industry and water down the Inflation Reduction Act's incentives.
Hydrogen's use in road transportation is explained as the ramp up of global hydrogen trucking fleet set to begin in 2030s, as battery trucks take early adoption lead saturating short-haul routes. Major quartz sand suppliers pledge production increases as crucibles used in solar production continue to increase in price. Germany bans the installation of gas boilers from 2024, giving a major boost to heat pump industry.
Rethink Energy explains its Q4 2022 solar deployment and manufacturing figures and gives some insights to future expectations. Policymakers in the US look to prematurely end the country's moratorium on the banning of Chinese-origin solar products, potentially crippling US solar deployments for the next 14 months. China looks to expand its ownership of African hydrogen projects that aim to export hydrogen Northwards to European industrial giants.
Macron's third state visit to China since 2018 was this time accompanied by between 50-60 company executives and the EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen aiming to increase cooperation with the country in a broad spectrum of energy technologies. 7 north-eastern US states have filed for $1.25 billion of the US' $8 billion hydrogen hub fund established by the Department of Energy. Toyota's new CEO has officially outlined the company's increased commitment to electric vehicles including new vehicles to be produced in the US.
Japan's revamped hydrogen strategy is expected to need $113 billion invested to reach 2040 goals of 12 million metric tons produced per year. OPEC+ has cut production in order to maintain $80 per barrel price floor while the US isn't in a place to intervene. The Australian government has committed $10 billion to support Australian industry as it looks to remain internationally competitive.
The European Union has finalized its negotiations with Germany to accommodate its last-minute demands to allow for an exception for the use of e-fuels within combustion engines past the 2035 deadline. EnerVenue has announced its plans to build a gigafactory in Kentucky as it aims to ramp up production of its nickel hydride batteries. Vietnam's renewables market awaits a new mechanism to support investment after its short-lived solar subsidies.
The Volkswagen Group has committed $130 billion towards electrification and digitization until 2028, increasing its share of total investment from 52% to 68% relative to 2018. The European Commission has officially announced its Critical Raw Materials Act and Net Zero Industry Act as its counterpart to the US' Inflation Reduction Act in an attempt to lure back manufacturers from the United States. Finally the EIA has produced its annual energy outlook report and it continues to overstate the long-term importance of oil to the US economy.
The European Commission has finalized its proposal that threatens to transform the European electricity market with a marked shift towards distributed energy sources. The rapidly falling cost of hydrogen will turn a green steel premium into a discount faster than expected says a new report from Rethink Energy. Talks between the US and EU continue ahead of guidance concerning the US' landmark Inflation Reduction Act later this month.
Petrobras has announced it will be conducting feasibility studies for 7 potential offshore wind projects on the coast of Brazil with the help of Equinor. High purity quartz sand becomes the new bottleneck in the solar supply chain as polysilicon worries ease. Ford has rejoined the race for truly autonomous driving as it establishes Latitude AI from the remains of its former investment Argo AI.
A new report from Rethink Energy projects global passenger EV markets to make dramatic shift towards LFP throughout this decade, and looks at what this means for global commodity markets. Germany looks to merge its grid operators in search of greater efficiency while Chile looks to use its vast mineral and potential renewable energy wealth to become a major hydrogen exporter.
EverWind Fuels receives environmental approval for its planned $6bn hydrogen project in Nova Scotia, Canada. Our solar forecasts are up yet again following production figures and polysilicon prices. Tata Motors and Uber sign a deal for 25,000 EVs to serve India's urban population as the country is set to begin catching up on EV demand.
Ford signs a deal with CATL to build a $3.5 billion LFP battery factory in Michigan for 2026, marking what could be a wave of intellectual property deals with Chinese battery leaders to produce price-competitive batteries in the US while maybe still complying with IRA subsidies. Portugal sees $8.6 billion investment in wind which will likely spill out towards hydrogen production in the future. China's intellectual property ban including some solar industry tech looks to be trying to stifle foreign manufacturing efforts.
The North and Baltic seas see investment looking at future green hydrogen production from wind energy. China exports nearly 160GW of solar in 2022, and manufactures 40GW this January alone. Australia begins a consultation on developing a domestic battery manufacturing industry to complement its massive domestic mining resources.
China looks to ban technology exports affecting the solar and semiconductor industries as it heightens trade-war tensions. Rethink publishes our flagship annual publication covering the sources of electricity going forwards, while predicting the implications of a changing energy mix and who will come out ahead in the future. Japanese automotive manufacturers continue to not put enough money towards electrification but the head of Lexus taking over the reigns as CEO of Toyota could change the region's fate.
India has set forwards investment for a domestic hydrogen production industry. The EU Commission has begun its consultation to reforms in its domestic energy market aimed at protecting consumers from the volatility of natural gas prices. US transmission investment remains muted compared to staggering Chinese investment
The EU Commission President, Ursula Von der Leyen, announces plans for further stimulus for the European Union that looks rather similar to the US' Inflation Reduction Act tax break incentives. Britishvolt enters administration in a significant blow to UK battery manufacturing. Finally plans for the first transatlantic flight powered by hydrogen are unveiled.
GM, Google, and the Rocky Mountain Institute gather a consortium of companies seeking to expand the use of virtual power plants (VPP) in the US. Despite imposing tariffs on Chinese solar components, India does not have the domestic manufacturing capacity to meet this year's demand. Gas prices plummet to pre-war levels in Europe as a result of the region's effort in sourcing alternatives and a mild winter thus far.
In this episode the team discusses how the price of Chinese solar modules has begun to fall because of supply chain investment bearing fruit, particularly in the supply chain for polysilicon. China lays out plans for a $12 billion energy hub in Inner Mongolia, with little concern given to hydrogen production, something that we think could be added later. Finally the United States Postal Service has caved and set forward plans to electrify its fleet after significant resistance and $3 billion from the Biden Administration.
Canada introduces its critical mineral strategy alongside $4 billion to support the US' battery and EV manufacturing ambitions. The EU commission launches the Photovoltaic Industry Alliance with the goal of developing a 30GW solar manufacturing base, and Meyer Burger creates a perovskite consortium to further tandem cell development after its departure from working alongside Oxford PV.
The US Department of Commerce publishes its findings on how many solar companies have been circumventing tariffs on Chinese-manufactured solar equipment, EnerVenue publishes its new product design and counts 7GWh of orders, and CarbonMeta turns plastic into hydrogen through microwave catalysis.
Spain's renewable energy auction underperforms drastically because of old pricing conditions. Thailand joins other Asian countries in commitment towards vast green hydrogen infrastructure. Mazda continues to avoid full commitment towards ICE vehicle as it invests towards research and development for future EVs and its ICE ranges.
In this week's episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the major energy company, Enel, its investment into bifacial heterojunction solar and its €21 billion assets sale, the 10GW hydrogen, wind and solar farm in Queensland, Australia and Energy Vault's move towards Li-ion storage solutions and its departure from gravity based energy storage.
In this week's episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the geothermal approach invented by Eavor and how swiftly it can scale this decade, the methods adopted by the Australian to handle massive rooftop solar contributions to the grid, and how latent demand from the EV sector means the lithium supply bottleneck won't be going away any time soon.
In this week's episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the $4bn Duke Energy renewables deal, the latest news from COP27 and utilities in Idaho pushing to reduce rooftop solar payments.
In today's episode we talk about the results from the Brazilian election and what they mean to the energy landscape, billion dollar hydrogen projects in India and Kazakhstan and the Chinese energy storage targets.
In this week's episode, the Rethink Energy team discusses the DoE investment into the US raw battery material infrastructure, Asian countries shifting to hydrogen and Avangrid pressing pause on a huge wind project.
In this week's episode the team discusses our lates Aviation Industry Forecast to 2060 and perovskite solar cells.
This week the Rethink team discusses General Motors and its move to install batteries in residential homes, the future of the aviation industry and our latest report on the EV market.
In this week's episode the team discusses the $6.8bn ConEd purchase by RWE, PV company Meyer Burger in the context of the European market, and the implications of energy islands in the North Sea.
In this week's episode we discuss the year on year solar installation numbers, how car rental firms are starting to think about the EV charging infrastructure and why hydrogen might have just achieved cost parity with diesel in the medium- and heavy-duty transportation markets.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the record breaking green ammonia deal, American EV charging points and the price of lithium.
In Rethink Energy’s latest podcast we discuss hydrogen transportation, potentially disruptive flow battery technologies and the future African energy market.
In this episode we discuss the importance of decentralized hydrogen production, Cadmium Telluride modules and the effect of the Inflation Reduction Act on battery materials.
In this week's episode we discuss our predictions of the natural gas market, Chinese power cuts and the European electric vehicle market.
In this week's episode we discuss the demand for green hydrogen, planed electrolyzer gigafactories and gas companies that are looking to extend the life of natural gas by investing in blue hydrogen. We also touch on the state of the energy market in India.
In this episode we discuss polysilicon, various electrolyzer developers and what novelties they claim to bring to the table and lastly we talk about the future of aviation and sustainable aviation fuels, including solar fuels.
In this episode we discuss about the second quarter results of "Big Oil" players like ExxonMobil and BP, hydrogen transportation and alternatives to lithium ion batteries.
Corporate solar funding has declined sharply in Q2 due to high module prices even as China's module exports surge; Ford has sidelined its own South Korean partners by adopting CATL's latest battery technology; and the UK government persists with supporting blue hydrogen and nuclear.
This week we talk about high solar module prices and its effect on utility scale projects - how long will they be delayed; We ask if Cyclo-Propane rings, could lead to the most powerful fuel known to man, and ask if Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory can use bacteria to manufacture them; and want to know why Europe has no specific targets or funding sources for energy storage, and who this has upset this week.
In Rethink Energy's latest podcast, we start discuss our annual global solar forecast to 2050, which shows a huge increase in solar around the world. We talked about a long duration storage play in Canada e-Zinc, and finally one of the world’s first hydrogen networks, planned to run across the Netherlands.
If you would like us to discuss anything in particular in our next podcast please let us know.
Below is the link below to download and view the executive summary to our Global Solar Forecast to 2050 -
Solar-Forecast-Exec-Summary-49993.pdf (rethinkresearch.biz)
Below is the link to our weekly analysis, which discusses all things renewable that have happened throughout the week and forms the discussions of the weekly Rethink Energy podcast -
Rethink-Energy-163-bb2ea.pdf (rethinkresearch.biz)
Our latest podcast discusses 'how will Volkswagen integrate its new Europcar acquisition', 'how Chinese cell and module manufacturers are cutting back production just to stay in slack with polysilicon and what it means to the market', there will be a discussion on hydro and whether it will make a comeback. Finally, the podcast ends with our publisher Simon Thompson sharing something that caught his eye in the world of renewables throughout the week.
Our Rethink Energy landing page can be found by following the link below where you will find all of our weekly analysis, reports and forecasts, podcasts and any webinars we have led.
Rethink Energy Archives - Rethink (rethinkresearch.biz)
Our main website can be found by following the link below -
Home - Rethink Technology Research ltd (rethinkresearch.biz)
Our latest podcast discusses our new research paper produced by one of our senior analysts on 'what proportion of transport will come to rely on hydrogen', then talks about 'the US introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism and is it likely?', before finishing with a 'detailed view of one Virtual Power Plant supplier and how he sees Virtual Power Plants developing'.
This episode contains discussions on the following points: 'The EU calling for an import ban on all products produced by China in forced labour', 'Next Era in the US setting a carbon zero template for all US utilities' and finally finishing with 'How Egypt plants to turn its waste into hydrogen and sell it to Germany'
Biden's energy emergency declaration and tariff moratorium may not reassure solar suppliers due to potential legal challenges, Ford has announced a belated commitment to cheap EV production, Middle Eastern markets are heating up for renewables with offshore wind under consideration for the Caspian Sea, and Energy Dome is pursuing a compressed-air CO2 project in Sardinia.
China's EV numbers have surged while the US stagnates, solar supply chain prices are to rise throughout 2022, and the next decade will see a global carbon price take shape as border taxes pressure Asian manufacturers to move away from coal-fired power plants.
The Australian election will help shore up flagging renewable investment in the country, especially if victorious Labor requires a coalition with the Greens; and Hyundai has joined the ranks of the EV makers with factory announcements for Korea and Indonesia.
The EU plans to move off Russian oil and gas imports by 2027, alternative battery technologies have several years to carve out grid market share while lithium-ion runs into issues, and California has announced a 5 GW "Reliability Reserve".
The Energy Ministers of Austria, Belgium, Spain, Luxembourg, and Lithuania have proposed a RepowerEU plan the European Commission which would see a doubling or tripling of even optimistic solar forecasts for the bloc. High oil and gas prices are also good news for green hydrogen and for Iran's ability to rustle up money for its own renewable energy development without Western finance.
The Biden Administration has managed to apportion $3.1 billion from the already-passed Infrastructure bill to help fund the battery industry, especially for EVs: but America will remain five years behind other major battery markets. The EU is bringing in sanctions on Russian oil which will cut down a large fraction of Russian state revenues, and the Dutch grid is becoming more congested.
The AD-CVD probe from the Department of Commerce continues to lay waste to US solar development long before any decision is made: Poland and Bulgaria have refused to pay for Russian gas in the manner demanded by Moscow: and Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition shouldn't completely overshadow the latest Tesla news.
Another US A-SMACC probe into solar module imports from Indochina threatens to disrupt American solar development, the UK's SMR nuclear initiative will take at least nine years to bear its expensive fruit, and the Suez Canal will come to be a green hydrogen nexus.
China's wind turbine manufacturers are gaining market share at the expense of the West even as Chinese battery maker CATL opens its first factory in Germany: and the UK's strategy is neglecting onshore wind and the opportunity it represents for both net-zero and post-Russia energy strategies.
World installations of wind power came to 92.5 GW in 2021, 25% lower than the incredibly high figure in 2020: Theion's sulfur battery technology will be a gamechanger, but the company will struggle to remain its leading player: and First Solar is co-operating with Sunpower to develop a CdTe-Silicon tandem module for the rooftop market within 24 months.
The latest Rethink Energy research identifies a battery supply shortage through to 2025, especially in the USA, whose car industry waited too long to invest in factories. Chinese trade statistics show 40 GW of solar manufactured in two months, and the Biden Administration's $5.8 trillion budget is already mediocre for renewables prior to Congressional negotiations.
Rethink Energy's Annual Primary Electricity 2.0 Forecast has been released, covering every energy source and category of demand in the 20 leading global markets through to 2050. That is the prime topic of discussion in this forecast - especially global trade flows of hydrogen.
Rethink Energy's 2021 solar installation numbers have been released, showing 12% year-on-year growth: Ghana will house one of the world's largest solar-battery complexes: and American silicon startup Leading Edge promises its floating silicon method could have 32 GW production capacity come 2030.
The West has begun banning Russian oil and gas exports, new drilling technology will make geothermal power available almost anywhere in the world at higher temperatures, and digital security from the likes of Intertrust Technology will ease the integration of EVs, demand response and domestic solar onto the grid.
Western sanctions on Russia may even extend to its oil and gas exports: The US' offshore leasing round has met with remarkable success: and EV maker Nikola has restored itself from its past fraud and the Hindenburg short-seller report, but has yet to see its share price recover.
Russia's intervention in the Ukraine leaves Europe trying to ditch Russian gas - but how and when can that be achieved? Meanwhile SoCal's 10 GW to 20 GW green hydrogen complex in California is menaced by the idea that Senator Manchin will insert blue hydrogen support into the Build Back Better bill.
California's updated energy strategy completely ignores wind while pushing unprecedented solar and battery storage: C-Power has begun to commercialize wave energy using remote offshore operations: and Modern Electron is promising to foster decentralized "turquoise" hydrogen production.
Scatec's 900 MW solar complex in India has had to be indefinitely delayed due to problems sourcing solar modules for the project; Mitsubishi has placed a $50 million electrolyzer order; and nuclear fusion has had a serious research breakthrough which makes it plausible that fusion will be part of the energy mix by 2070.
The polysilicon supply will continue to limit solar deployments until mid-2023, Elon Musk has found something that interests him more than EVs, Baofeng Energy has solidified China's hydrogen lead with a 150 MW electrolyzer, and oil is back over $90 with foolhardy investments being made once more.
China's wind industry deployed 17 GW offshore in 2021, far exceeding expectations; GM's EV progress has encountered delays; Florida may cut Net Metering off at the knees; and Australia has exported hydrogen to Japan.
Rethink Energy's Harry Morgan has released his hydrogen report - covering the world-changing growth of the sector in detail through to 2050. Other topics for this episode are Vietnam's continued post-FiT wilderness for renewables with $7 billion in wind investments missing a subsidy deadline; the 15 GW of floating wind awarded in the UK; and CATL's EV battery swapping initiative across ten Chinese cities.
CCUS will play a valuable role in the green future of cement production, unlike its failure to decarbonize coal plants; Kazakhstan will remain open for Western investment into renewables and green hydrogen after Russian intervention; and Vattenfall subsidiary Feenstra has debuted its home heat pump, which ought to be a no-brainer in the gas-dependent home heat markets of the UK and Netherlands as they try to decarbonize.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the Cummins-Sinopec electrolyzer gigafactory, China's 105 GW UHV transmission expansion, the 300 days remaining for the Biden Administration to push through climate spending, and the attempt within the EU to classify natural gas built prior to 2030 as green power.
I this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the inadequacy of the Biden Administration's support for EVs, Australia electricity market operator's strategic plans for the grid, and the Seawing parafoil's utility for reducing ships' fuel consumption.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses China's second round of vast wind-solar desert complexes and how this means it will reach 200% of its 2030 renewable capacity target; how the last 50% of the car market will fall to EVs; and the fate Iraq faces as the oil industry collapses in the 2030s.
In this bumper episode the Rethink Energy team goes over the Q3 solar installation numbers, our new report covering the future of EV uptake and oil's collapse, plus Sinopec's green hydrogen facility.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the Biden Admin's Build Back Better bill provision of production tax credits for hydrogen, Rethink Energy's new report on the future of EVs and oil, and the monumental build out of polysilicon manufacturing in China.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses ammonia-fueled ships, how solar LCOE declines are being concealed by temporary disruptions, and Cyanobacteria's research into modifying algae to absorb far more carbon dioxide.
A bumper episode in which the Rethink Energy team mostly discusses the conclusions of the COP26 Summit.
In this episode Harry Morgan reports from the ongoing COP26 summit, and the Rethink Energy team discusses to continued stalling of two massive spending bills in the US Senate and House of Representatives.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the upcoming COP26 Summit with related topics, and the recent performance of some EV and hydrogen start ups.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the UK's energy strategy, how the current fossil fuel prices are good for green hydrogen, Senator Manchin's continued delay of the Biden Admin's green stimulus, and the remarkable uptake of CSP in both China and the West this month.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the IEA's new energy report, the recent oil price rise, China's power shortages, and the upcoming COP26 summit.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the gas and coal price spike situation, especially in the UK and China.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the UK's and China's respective coal and gas woes, Ford's EV progress, Q2 solar figures worldwide, and the Green's strong position in German coalition negotiations.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the OECD's statement trying to muscle in on the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, Redwood's battery recycling proposition in the US, Toshiba's progress with perovskites, and the US's green stimulus proposals in the ongoing budget reconciliation.
In this episode the the Rethink Energy team discusses its latest report - on the future of Air conditioning and heating power demand - as well as the use of hydrogen as seasonal electricity storage, and the difficulty lithium will face trying to act as long-duration energy storage.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the world's first commercial perovskite solar installation from courtesy of Saule Technologies and why other perovskite approaches have encountered delays, and we discuss part of our upcoming green hydrogen forecast - when it will overtake blue and grey hydrogen in various markets and why.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses our new report into Concentrated Solar Power, the blue hydrogen greenwashing which may only just be beginning, and Chinese EV maker Xpeng's expansion into Norway.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses Biden's quest for 50% new cars as EVs by 2030, Exxonmobil's doomed investment strategy, and the IPCC report's political impact.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the Biden Administration's stimulus plan, Vietnam's plans to shift to auctions to incentivize renewables, and the strategy of the oil majors in the context of their quarterly results.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the sudden and unexplained partnership termination enacted by Oxford PV against Meyer Berger, Shell's latest investment strategy, and Bloomberg finally upping its EV forecast to the realms of plausibility.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the EU and China carbon markets, how the EU ban will double EV adoption by 2030 to 116 million, and how deep drilling may enable Finland's first ever geothermal.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team is joined by John Ingram, founder of CSP startup Focal Line Solar, to discuss his views on concentrated solar power, as well as recent news on the EU's emissions targets, Enhanced geothermal's first grid participation in China, and a pro-renewable shift in the US's PJM electricity market relating to the Minimum Offer Price Rule (MOPR).
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the investments which India is incentivizing from its fossil fuel sector into renewable manufacturing, the UAE openly expressing its impatience with the rest of the OPEC cartel's production limits, and a praiseworthy report from the UK's Office of Budget Responsibility which points out various severe threats to the economy from climate change - arguing that energy transition is the cheap option.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses China's 16 GW Baihetan hydropower station, how the steel industry is more prepared to decarbonize than the gas industry, the rapid strengthening of China's domestic solar segment, Texel's aluminum hydride heat storage battery, and Hydrogen Systems Australia's small-scale plasma-based electrolyzers.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team is joined by highly experienced renewables journalist Peter Kelly Detwiler to discuss the future of EVs and their on-grid participation. We also cover Rethink Energy's latest report covering the hydrogen transition which the global steel industry is about to embark on, the US startup Breeze which plans to use pipelines as compressed-air energy distribution, The US' budding plans to develop its own solar manufacturing industry, and the marine energy startup Eco Wave Power.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the looming mass low-price selloff of Permian Basin oil assets, how the latest monthly EV sales figures from Europe surpass even our forecasts, our Spain country profile, The "B3W" Build Back Better World initiative to mobilize $40 trillion of private finance from the West for the energy transition, the UK Climate Change Committee's milquetoast criticisms of the government, kWhAanalytics' update to the expected degradation of solar projects, and on-site spiral welding enabling larger wind turbines to be erected unhampered by transportation size limits.
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In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses an estimated 30 GW of soalr installed worldwide in Q1, a new wind power technology with five times the generation density per square kilometer, the pressure Royal Dutch Shell is coming under to decarbonize, and EV maker Lordstown's continued woes.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses Mercedes-Benz's investment in green steel, Vietnam's 5.4 GW pipeline of wind to be built in 2021, Brazil's drought and the related issues of hydropower and the rainforest, and NREL's energy storage predictions for the US.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the multi-GW floating offshore wind platforms to be built in Icelandic waters, Malta Inc's thermal pumped energy storage, how Mexico's turn against renewables may be set in stone in the midterm elections this week, and how we expect oil consumption to reach its second peak in 2031, having never fully returned to 2019 numbers.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the UK's post-EU carbon market, the IEA's report forecasting even more renewable energy than we expect, India's anti-dumping probe against almost all solar cells used in the country last year, the latest accusations of forced labor against the Chinese polysilicon industry, and Algeria's stagnant energy policy.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the Biden Administration's approval of the 800 MW Vineyard Wind offshore wind project, the IEA's minerals report, the likelihood of Europe reaching a mooted 20 GW solar manufacturing capacity, Ocean Sun's floating solar in Colombia, the Colonial Pipeline hack, and Vietnam's 6% cut to coal generation in 2021 even as its demand grows.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses: how US oil majors are more concerned with paying down debt, dividends or share buybacks than with the energy transition; a 17 GW set of five solar projects in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang; Chile's potential as a hydrogen giant; and the implications of rocketing steel prices.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses $8 billion in US government funding for transmission infrastructure, the oil majors' results and the implication for their renewables investments, China's last-minute attendance at the Climate Summit, and vertical-axis wind turbines.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses a new hydrogen production process that uses solar power directly without electrolysis, the Earth Day Summit and international climate targets, China's 30 GW five-year energy storage ambitions, and some pro-gas bills in the aftermath of the February Texas powercut, and our upcoming Steel Report forecasting global demand and decarbonisation.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the new hydrogen electrolysis catalyst developed at Kyoto University, the contrast between Australia's government and the private sector on renewable energy development, and how France's ban on short domestic flights will impact hydrogen and electric-powered aeroplane startups in that country.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses the British Government's ongoing promotion of expensive gas and nuclear power, Bombora's wave energy proposal which would be integrated with floating offshore wind projects, how Q1 EV sales figures from China and Europe vindicate Rethink Energy forecasts, and China's large CSP pipeline.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses our 178 GW expectation for global solar in 2021, the Biden Administration's boost to offshore wind power, our Saudi Arabia country profile, and Raygen's PV-inclusive concentrated solar design.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses how renewable energy Capex can peak globally in the 2030s thanks to cost declines, how the UK, EU, and Indonesia are all clinging to fossil fuels, Vietnam's grid adjustment after the FiT-driven solar boom, and a new form of dense hydrogen storage.
In this episode we discuss Noon Energy's Solid-Oxide Fuel Cells, Fortescue Metals' renewable energy and hydrogen plans, Hindenburg's attack on EV startup Lordstown's reputation, TVP Solar's high-temperature vacuum solar thermal heaters, Rethink Energy's latest analysis of future LCOEs for wind and solar, the IEA's latest pro-oil energy forecast, and the surge of component prices in China's solar industry driven by high demand.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses China's "GDP-first" 14th Five-Year Plan, the H2Pro hydrogen startup, alleged flaws in Siemens Gamesa's ETES hot rock energy storage, and Power Roll's microgroove approach to thin-film solar and supercapacitors.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses our latest report, Look Back in Anger, which examines the next three decades - from the perspective of where things have to be in 2050. We also discuss India's attempts to foster its domestic solar manufacturing industry with a new Basic Customs Duty on imports, the shortage of chips in the automotive industry, and our new 146.5 GW estimate for 2020 solar installations.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses China's expanding Carbon Market pilot, Drax's environmentally dubious biomass expansion in the UK, a correction in hydrogen and other clean energy stocks, and how polysilicon supply threatens to bottleneck a rapidly expanding solar industry in 2021.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses - 67 GW of green hydrogen planned by the HyDeal Ambition initiative in Spain, Eavor's new type of geothermal energy which copies fracking to deep enough to be used anywhere and doesn't rely on pumps, the Texas blackout debacle, a bill proposing 10 GW floating offshore wind in California.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses our recently released report on perovskites, a novel type of solar photovoltaic while will gain a significant chunk of market share by 2030: Ford's overstated commitment to EVs; and how the major forecasters such as Bloomberg and Wood Mackenzie continue to underestimate the impact that green hydrogen and EVs will have on oil through to 2050.
In this episode we discuss GM's 2035 deadline past which they will no longer make internal combustion vehicles, the extremely weak figures for the oil majors in 2020, the Biden Administration's as yet vague ambition to boost offshore wind. We also discuss Panasonic's retreat from solar manufacturing, the trillion dollars bound up in oil and gas pipeline developments.
In this episode the Rethink Energy Team discusses: how General Motor's deadline to stop making ICE vehicles from 2035 vindicates Rethink's EV forecast, Tesla's financial results, the shift of engineering talent from ICE to EVs, Elon Musk's jocular $100 million CCUS prize, and China's 50% increase in solar manufacturing capacity during 2020.
In this episode of the Rethink Energy Podcast, the team discusses China's astonishing 48.2 GW solar and 71.67 GW wind additions in 2020 and how the wind figure can even be possible; Biden's cancellation of the Keystone pipeline; the last years of America's natural gas development and options to switch fossil fuel infrastructure to hydrogen; and comments from China's provinces on their plans for renewable energy in the coming 14th Five-Year Plan.
In this episode we discuss Moody's underrating of Enel compared to Exxon Mobil and Chevron, we discuss the Chinese segment of our global wind power forecast, Mitsubishi Power's $1.9 billion dollar hydrogen salt cavern energy storage plans in Utah which will help power California, and how the 182mm vs 210mm cell size rivalry is contributing to China's solar manufacturing boom.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses Boston Metal's electrolyzer-based steel-making, a record high year for solar installations globally especially in Vietnam, and what and what the Biden Administration can do for renewables with all three branches of the US government in Democrat hands.
In this episode we discuss Rethink Energy's upcoming wind forecast, how floating wind will be especially important to locations like Japan and the USA, and when we expect US states to bring in bans on internal combustion vehicles.
In this episode the Rethink Energy team discusses the new roadmap laid out by the UK's Climate Change Committee, Greece's exit from coal, QuantumScape's solid-state batteries, and the unexpectedly rapid growth of EVs in Europe.
In this episode we discuss India's renewables targets, South Korea's new 8 GW offshore wind turbine, Exxon Mobil's response to the annus horribilis, and a very interesting Scottish startup.
In which the Rethink Energy team discuss Enel's $226 billion renewable spending plans for the decade, Tesla's massive market capitalization, how China will introduce a carbon tax ahead of the USA, and a revival on the cards for European solar manufacturing.
In which the Rethink Energy team discusses the US's federal Minimum Offer Price Role (MOPR), the UK's ten-point energy plan, the EU's offshore renewable ambitions, and Japan's reaction to the coming Biden admin.
The Rethink team discusses: solar import tariffs under a Biden administration and the pressure that Brazil and Mexico expect from the Democrats; the need for a positive announcement to break negative coverage for EV company Nikola; Iberdrola's massive expansion in the US and elsewhere; the severe stagnation of Indian solar power under Coronavirus lockdowns; and the massive green energy ambition of Fortescue Metals, a mining company that hasn't been forced into the renewable shift.
As the US election edges in Biden’s favor, the Rethink team discusses whether a split senate will allow for significant changes to renewable energy policy. In China, a huge quarter for wind continues to drive its turbine manufacturers forward, while South Australia leads the nation’s path towards a future in hydrogen exports.
We're back to results season, and while the oil majors have performed better than expected, their stock price and outlook remain uncertain. The emerging hydrogen market offers a way out, with only minor alternations needed to existing infrastructure.
Meanwhile in Mexico, energy security appears to be distracting left-wing politics from the necessity to transition to renewables.
While Donald Trump pointed to 'expensive wind power' in the Presidential Debate, the Rethink Team discusses a Lazard report which highlights the opposite. As renewables-focused utilities gain presence in the US, the largest laggards in Europe finally pledge themselves to a coal-free future.
Meanwhile in China, the upcoming 14th five year plan is likely to see solar continue its commodity status, with as much as 100 GW of new installed renewables set to be installed every year.
As debate sparks around whether or not we have passed peak oil demand, the Rethink team discusses why the IEA has a problem with ambitious forecasting. Meanwhile, massive hybrid projects are popping up in Inner Mongolia and players from China, Canada and the UK rush to compete in Europe's market for clean transport.
The Rethink Team discusses the different approaches to decarbonizing the steel industry, and why an all guns blazing method will win out.
This comes the same week that the IEA decided that hydrogen was not the solution, in a report which once again shows how obsessed it is with oil and gas. Forecasting companies are much the same, and giving two versions of the truth is unforgivable if we want a united vision in reaching net zero emissions.
As Spain revives its solar economy off the back of corporate PPAs, the team also discusses the idea of a European supergrid, making the most of southern solar in the summer and wind power in the North Sea during windy winters.
The Rethink Team discusses new innovation coming out of the Russian solar sector, along with the potential for the hydrogen sector to trickle $12 trillion through the global economy up to 2050. It's also been a quarter of contrasts for the wind sector, with an upsurge in offshore wind presenting one of many opportunities for HVDC transmission.
This week's news includes two contrasting speeches to the UN from the leaders of China and the USA, about climate commitments, as China sets out plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Rethink Energy's analysis shows that this drive continues to come from the solar sector, while the country gears up to lead supply chains in energy storage.
With Tesla and Nikola both seeing stock prices falling for different reasons, the team also discusses how different forms of leadership will define how the companies displace incumbents in the transport sector, while companies like Daimler scramble to keep up with hydrogen innovation.
After 2 weeks off, the Rethink Energy team discusses a period of 'inflection points' for the energy transition, with both BP and General Motors both signalling that their business can't and won't go on as usual.
The US and China are also both making noise around new targets for renewable energy, but how much of this is just political promises?
The Rethink Energy team rounds up the week with a look through a stormy period for US oil, as well as Vietnam's eighth national power plan, which indicates a big shift away from coal, as renewables continue to accelerate.
Also on the agenda is clean aviation, and whether fuel cells could penetrate the market from the bottom-up, as well as continued frustration towards analyst firms, who continue to act as a hindrance to the energy transition with their pessimism around disruptive technology.
Join the Rethink Energy team to discuss the key issues in the world of energy this week. Topics on the cards include: the further capacity being added to the world's largest battery storage campus in the US; why fires are pushing up the cost of silicon in China; and how new research in catalysts could be key to slashing costs of green hydrogen by 2023.
This week, the Rethink Energy team dives deeper into BP's results and what it will mean for the energy transition if it holds true with its new spending plans for clean technology.
Also in the headlines is the unexpected surge for solar installations in China, and the potential for a 20+ GW rush in the final months of 2020.
We also discuss the findings from this week's webinar on hydrogen production, how a hydrogen ecosystem could start to form across Europe and who the victors of the markets early growth could be.
Join Peter, Harry and Andries as they discuss two of the week's biggest issues in the world of energy.
It's been a tough week for the oil majors as quarterly figures start to show the extend of their damage from Covid-19, but things could be worse than they appear at first glance.
Meanwhile the future of solar in the US has a lot riding on the US election, with Chinese manufacturers set to pounce if tariffs are removed and they can dump their oversupply of modules on the American market.
Join the Rethink Energy team as we discuss a huge injection of UK Export Finance into Mozambique - to boost LNG trading between the US and Europe. Meanwhile, we identify why Portugal is the dark horse in the race to lead Europe's green hydrogen economy, the birth of a potential superstar in the floating wind sector and what the outcome will be of China's decision for the future of wafer sizes in the solar sector.
Another big week for energy, with promises of varying value coming from even the largest laggards in the oil sector as well as a huge statement of intent from Joe Biden as part of his election campaign.
While bringing you up to speed with the weeks issue, Rethink Energy also dips into the world of rail – offering Hyperloop and Hydrogen as two concepts for trains of the future – as well as India’s first foray into large-scale floating solar.
We're back for round two of the Rethink Energy Podcast, with a shorter and snappier format, welcoming Simon Thompson as our host.
Serious movements this week in the energy transition as the EU announces renewables at the centre of its first ever hydrogen strategy, while in the US, panic selling becomes the name of the game for utilities with a high dependence on natural gas. Along with these key issues, we'll be discussing our quarterly round-up of the global solar market, and how Covid-19 has impacted the rate of installations.
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In our Pilot Episode we discuss Rethink Energy's long duration storage webinar, and what technologies will compete best within the ten hour storage market - will it really be Lithium Ion?
We’ll also be discussing a quarter of contrasts for the UK, which has seen very little renewables installations but a very high level of generation, as well as new integrated resource plans coming out of the US, and what the future holds for company’s like Shell and BP after writing off billions in assets over recent weeks.