Ross Greenwood's The Money Minutes: Recent Episodes
Talent Corp
Ross Greenwood gives his take on the economy, business and the world with his typical straight-talking approach. No punches pulled here.
The actions of James Wolfensohn (ex President World Bank) helped alleviate poverty in the developing world. His recent death reminds us all of the legacy he leaves shins. This episode features an interview I conducted with him in 2010 following the release of his memoirs: A Global Life: My Journey Among Rich and Poor, from Sydney to Wall Street to the World Bank
The speed that the vaccines have been created is nothing short of astonishing. But as they start to enter our communities, central banks and Government have opened the economic throttle to maximum. Chris Stott from 1851 Capital is today's guest on The Money Minutes.
Should super contributions rise to 12%? Should you be forced to "eat" your home in retirement? Should some of us pay more tax in retirement? Here's your guide to the latest report ... and the ongoing debate on how you should save for retirement.
Last week South Australia introduced a new tax. A tiny, little tax. But that tax should be studied by electric car owners everywhere, because it's the start of a new way to fund our roads.
On Tuesday, Rio Tinto stopped production at its famous Argyle diamond mine, producer of 90 percent of the world's pink diamonds. And this is the story of the man who discovered it - 92-yo Evan Tyler. (Originally 26 Aug 2020)
No job … no interviews … little hope. But what Qantas pilots Matt Harper and Dave Rubin did next is a lesson for us all.
The Reserve Bank hits the hyper-drive button … trying to stimulate a pandemic-hit economy. Putting more cash into a banking system that is already awash with money So is the RBA creating bigger future troubles than it’s fixing today? With economist Warren Hogan
While the Prime Minister has stake the post-covid recovery on cheap gas prices, billions are being written off the value of projects ... the world is awash with cheap gas and there are question-marks over the viability of (and even demand for) future gas projects. So has the PM pulled the wrong rein???
Officially the Reserve Bank might say we're out of recession, … but ah, it’s the vibe . But if we’re getting out this mess, we must listen & learn from the best … like Gabby Leibovich, the man who created Catch of the Day!
The US election is a key turning point for the global economy, and therefore the stockmarket. In this episode Roger & I talk through the risks and opportunities from either a Trump or Biden victory ... and explore new research firms that make their money through aggressive short selling.
New standards were necessary for financial advisers. But Govt and regulators had little idea that their actions would create a massive vacuum where most aspiring Australian families are choosing to take no advice at all. Your feedback has been at full volume ... all in this episode.
Despite Royal Commissions, rules changes and higher standards for those who give financial advice, fewer people than ever before can afford to get that advice. It's better than dodgy salespeople ... but there must be better ways to give people access to cheaper, impartial advice.
Of all the affected industries from Covid 19 travel, tourism & hotels & restaurants are the most affected. The failure rate of cafes, bars & restaurants is already high, but even the industry suggests it could be 25% in the next year. So what are the options for owners and the Govt?
The banks might like to be seen as can-do organisations, solving peoples' problems. But how will those same banks dance as unemployment and bad debts mount. Plus James Packer's memory ... he wants to forget Crown, but how could he be so forgetful?
The stockmarket takes off after the Federal Budget pumps billions into the economy. Today Roger Montgomery and I discuss where the risks lie … and what should you buy.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg's Budget is the biggest bet in Australia's history. It's a punt on our behaviour; on companies seeing sufficient returns for their investment and, most importantly, a timely corona virus vaccine. None of these - mind you - is a dead cert!
It can easily be argued that Government should not pick winners ... but they can't help themselves. And this week's boost to key areas of manufacturing is a big tip for players wanting to pick winners themselves. With noted infrastructure economist, Henry Ergas, in Paris.
The chase for yield, as interest rates fall, is one of the biggest risks for investors - especially retirees who depend upon their capital to live. They're the ones who can least afford to drop too much capital on ill-conceived investment strategies. The other risk is the influx of first time investors via new broking services offering cheap transactions. Any service that encourages share investment is a good thing ... so long as those entering are conscious of the risk. Most of those chasing tech companies, I think ... are ignorant of the risks.
New insolvency law announced by the Government seem to be a panacea for small business struggling with financiers or landlords. Similar U.S. laws saved Apple and General Motors. But be careful ... nothing is perfect ... the sharks will be circling.
Right now 40% of Australian wine exports go to China. If current Chinese investigations halt or raise the price of Aussie red wine - there could be a glut here, raising questions about the viability of some winemakers. Mitchell Taylor is one of our very best winemakers ... he knows what's at stake, and speaks frankly about the challenge.
The Govt says its Budget will be all about infrastructure. But infrastructure for which economy? The changes in behaviour caused by Covid 19 will cause generational shifts for work, business, transport, and the economy. Leading demographic thinker, Bernard Salt joins Ross for a trip to the future.
Unemployment falling, tick. Interest rates zero for a long time, tick. Government paying the bills, tick. But it's what comes in the next year or two that will determine the length and pain of the real recession, that's still to come.
They've been hyped as the Aussie revolution for the global payments system. But look under the hood at the real numbers - and the global challenges - and you might start to wonder why the share prices have rocketed as they have. With ex Diners Club boss Grant Halverson - who crunches the numbers.
Though you might be tempted to think that recent events are leading to the potential demise of the once great AMP Society ... in truth the decline is decades in the making. Here, leading actuary Michael Rice and I chronicle the litany of failures at the AMP over the years ... that leads to today's questions over its very future.
There are potentially 250,000 companies that should have collapsed, if they were not propped up by the Govt's $300 billion+ economic stimulus. The problem is, as soon as Govt support, or policy changes ... they will collapse, potentially triggering a second wave of recession. So why put off the economic inevitable?
Many retailers were already struggling before Covid 19. Now more are surviving only because of Govt support. But that's expiring ... and landlords want to start collecting full rent again. So what are the new rules of retailing and how does it affect the shopping centres; retailers large & small ... plus shoppers of course. With Colliers' Michael Bate.
It's a riddle to work out. Car sales have collapsed ... but if you try to buy a second hand car ... you'll discover prices have sky-rocketed. There is an explanation ... and Josh Dowling joins me to help explain it.
Australia is officially in its first recession in almost 29 years. No surprise there, but the fact that household savings & prosperity have gone through the roof is. So what's in store for the future. Today, noted economist Warren Hogan ... plus some tunes from the 90s and today.
The rules of the investment game are changing ... for business too. It means there are new strategies needed, and an understanding of the forces driving our currency and property prices in a world already looking beyond Covid 19
Share prices continue to rise - for some to record highs - as the carnage of corporate balance sheets was put out to show. To help dissect the themes, and some of the star companies, Chris Stott of 1851 Capital.
As the world-famous Argyle diamond mine nears the end of its life, it's worth remembering that one man, 92-year old Ewen Tyler, has been a part of the discovery and development of Australia's three only diamond mines. This is his story.
When dinosaurs roamed the earth (or even 20 years ago) you might have got away with the sort of behaviour that engulfed the AMP in controversy, scandal and board changes. But times have changed ... and so have expectations. And that's why the change at AMP are so important for every organisation, large and small.
Big losses from Qantas and others highlights the problem of locking down state borders too tightly ... and keeping them shut for political reasons. Plus Woolies breaks out ... to start selling groceries direct to restaurants and other businesses. But small and medium sized businesses, threatened by move, are not going quietly.
Our retirement savings system is said to be the world's best. But is right now the time to push ahead with the ambitious plan to raise our contributions from 9.5% to 12% of our wages? There is bi-partisan support, but politicians are grappling with this question in the middle of a crippling recession. The best person to have the debate with is Australia's leading independent actuary - Michael Rice, from Rice Warner.
Population growth is one of the key numbers in the house price growth equation. And some of the demand must/should come from China ... or will it? China's latest move on the Australian wine industry is out an out retaliation ... and while our Govt denies it's a trade war, I can't think of any other way to describe it.
As the profit results keep rolling in - JB HiFi & Kogan the latest of them - Roger Montogmery analyses the forward looking statements from CEOs to see what they're saying about future earnings ... and share prices.
Gaining, and holding, a customer is tougher today than ever before. But linguistics experts are coming to realise that what many customers tell you, is not what they are actually thinking. Alastair Herbert is one such expert, and he breaks down customer fact from fiction.
Politicians and business leaders like to put the best possible spin on the economy and their company profits ... and that's just what they were doing this week. But what if we're in this for the long haul ... and vaccine makers are warning just that. What happens next?
The profits of big companies are important to shareholders, but the outlook statements of the CEOs tell us plenty about their mood about the future of the nation, our prosperity and our job security.
To spend or save, that is the question. And the man to answer it is Andrew "Billy" Baxter, one of the most respected marketers in the country. This recession might be like no other that we have ever experienced, but some things remain the same. Plus the latest from the current profit reporting season.
While people are locked-down, the Govt needs to be there to support families. But could the hundred billion dollars or so in support be used, long term, to create jobs - God knows, Australia needs lots of things built. I put all this to the CEO of Infrastructure Partnerships Australia, Adrian Dwyer.
It's been as bleak a week as some have seen in a lifetime, economically and socially. But the golden lining is ... well gold ... at all time record prices. But what are the best Aussie gold companies to buy; how do you read the production reports and how long can this keep going (hint ... as long as Governments keep printing money)? I speak with an old mate, and gold-bug, Richard Morrow from stockbroker, EL & C Baillieu.
It's a sobering message from the Prime Minister and from industry. The cost of Victoria's Covid 19 outbreak will be felt for decades into the future ... with the prospect that thousands of companies will not survive. We break down the PM's message and speak with Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox.
As Virgin Australia sacks 3000 workers, and Virgin Atlantic files for bankruptcy, it's clear aviation is in real strife ... with aircraft stashed in deserts and passengers locked up at home. Amid this surely, surely, Qantas would never have the hide to ask the Govt for financial assistance. Plus Disney's radical new plan - cinemas out; paying movie for at-home movies in.
As the Reserve Bank downgrades its economic forecasts, there are more warnings about rising unemployment and falling house prices. But those who can keep their senses, and their jobs, its time to start preparing to identify assets that will set them up for the next generation. Today with NAB's Chief Economist Alan Oster & SQM Research's Louis Christopher ... with a little help from Bon Jovi ...
As Melbourne goes into Stage 4 lockdown, the prospect of financial collapse becomes more real for families and companies. Today Melbourne-based Neil Devonport, who decided the right thing to do was to fold his accommodation business. Plus insolvency expert Ian Purchas on the growing number of businesses that face the same sad prospect.
Roger Montgomery is a renowned value investor, a style that is oddly out of fashion right now. But with 1-in-10 businesses saying they will collapse if support dries up, understanding value is more important than ever before!
A bit of a mix for you today ... inflation numbers the biggest fall in 72 years, the political battle over Aussie rare earths & the bank regulator rules on dividends. Oh, I listened to you ... the "dings" are gone!
They're the ultimate in defensive investments ... but gold is flying at all-time record prices at the same time as cash returns nothing, or maybe less. Ross Greenwood channels the Reserve Bank, investment genius Mark Mobius & the CEO of Evolution Mining Jake Klein. There's even a bit of U2 in there to keep you going!
Today's latest valuation downgrades of Australia's 2nd largest shopping centre group highlights the fortuitous genius of the Lowy family to exit their retail empire. On a slightly different not ... just ask Microsoft's Bill Gates about the moral hazards of being openly generous with your charity.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg promised "harsh" numbers and today he delivered them ... including total Govt debt of $851 billion inside a year. Now is the time for Govt and all Australians to stand up, take a long-term view and work to fix problem so it's not left to our kids and grandkids.
A bit of everything today: a comparison of the stockmarket today versus the last great crash; the legacy of the Boeing 747 and which is more important - work or a Covid 19 test result?
It was inevitable. The Government today said it will keep supporting (pay) families and businesses to keep them afloat. But the Reserve Bank Governor admitted unemployment will rise from the current 7.4%. The question is whether the Govt can stump up enough money to rescue everybody. The answer, sadly, is "NO".
As the Government unveils new "guaranteed" loans for small business, is this, as Paul Kelly might say: "... pouring petrol on a burning man?" But then again, what other option does Govt have, with forecasts that 10% of businesses might go broke.
While supporting the economy is thoroughly plausible in an economic downturn, what happened to all those "shovel-ready" projects we were told were in the pipeline. Turns out, it was a dribble. But if we want a lasting legacy from the billions being handed out, the Govt had better start building projects, and jobs, real soon!
After today's bad unemployment number, the Govt's Job Trainer program throws money at a problem rather than create a long term solution. It's another bandaid, when the nation needs a make-over. The hope is more will be announced in next week's Budget update otherwise ... as we discuss ... we might all end up TikTok choreographers!
The blame game for Covid 19 is starting ... but China is already rattling sabres, rather than getting its cheque book out. In this episode we look at potential responses around the world, and how pain of the virus could be compounded by world leaders.
Look around ... as the nation again quivers with Covid 19 outbreaks in Victoria, the Govt will be left with no option but to continue the life support. But the longer it does this, the worse the longer term outcome.
The whole issue of super is about: who's money is it really? Is it your's, the super fund's or the Government's? The answer - especially in economically troubled times when some really need the money is not straightforward. In this episode I speak with one of Australia's leading independent actuaries, Michael Rice about the wrinkles in our retirement system.
It’s crunch-time for the Government and the economy. As more Australians line up for hand-outs, the burden of tax is falling on fewer & fewer people. What option does the Government have to extend financial relief ... or risk a much deeper recession?
The raw numbers spell opportunity in housing markets ... but harder heads want to see even stronger signs of employment growth before jumping in. Then there’s the banks, their profits & their confidence.
An extended interview with the found of the Thorney Opportunities & Thorney Technology Funds, including the stocks he’s backing and his view on the disconnect between the stockmarket’s performance ... and economic forecasts.
Australia is in its first recession in 28 years. The irony is that the dollar & stockmarket are flying ... so is it a heavy landing, or the Lucky Vountry once more?
It was just three weeks ago that Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn spooked many when the bank put out a worst case forecast of a 32% fall in Australian house prices. The first test of housing came out today with CoreLogic's May house price numbers which were ... all things considered ... not too bad. The question is whether this is the new norm, or is worse to come?
It reads like a movie script. As the Reserve Bank Governor urges Government to consider extending economic assistance, Prime Minister Scott Morrison embarks on a bold plan to change industrial laws. But standing in his way is the imposing figure of union boss John Setka, who is brawling with his union body, the ACTU, his own Federal union and the Federal Opposition. Good luck Scott.
The UK's Project Birch has identified strategic industries the Govt might bail out by buying direct stakes in businesses. Here, with rising debts, the Govt has a chance to do the exact opposite ... to ease its debt burden by selling key businesses ... in the process reinforcing its position as one of the strongest economies in the world.
Class actions have had an increasingly influential impact on corporate life since being introduced into Australia in 1992. But the Govt's latest action, to create an effective 6-month moratorium on continuous disclosure class actions, could again protect the weak ... that should otherwise be subject to market forces.
While most take the security of our banking industry for granted, it is worth re-learning the lessons of the last recession, when our banks were not so stable. It was a time of Kerry Packer raiding Westpac and Al "Chainsaw" Dunlap on a broken board. There are parallels with today that should not be forgotten as we face into these recessionary winds.
In some ways, the stockmarket is the one place that's truly defied Covid 19. The rebound in share prices is not only impressive, but to many, downright confusing ... in the face of clear ongoing economic damage. And with China threatening even more Australian products with extra tariffs you'd imagine some caution, especially around vulnerable sectors. But no. So the message is: tread very, very carefully - this is not over by a long-shot.
Global stockmarkets have added trillions of dollars on US biotech Moderna announcing cautious, but positive Phase I trials into a Covid-19 vaccine. The bigger question is whether this treatment, if proven, is enough to fix the long-term economic damage. Have the markets put euphoria ahead of sense again?
The second episode of The Money Minutes delves further into haves and have nots of this economic downturn & why some are right now flying ... but others floundering. Plus ... a caller's question answered!
The "shock" of rising unemployment should not have been a surprise. But hopefully it will prompt Government not to simply hand more money out, but to genuinely find reforms that create sustainable growth once the Covid19 crisis eases.