ICIS - chemical podcasts: Recent Episodes
ICIS - chemical podcasts
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Ethylene glycols (EG) markets reporter, Melissa Wheeler and CDI Analyst for the PET and polyester value chain, Antulio Borneo discuss current market dynamics and supply disruptions following the recent deflagration at Dow's Plaquemine, Louisiana ethylene oxide (EO) unit.
Market Reporters Melissa Wheeler and Cameron Birch discuss how the US and Europe EO derivatives market dynamics could shift following EO deflagration
- US EO supply remains snug following Dow Plaquemine, Louisiana deflagration
- US Ethanolamines imports could increase slightly from Europe
- Ethanolamines demand in Europe largely responsible for balanced market despite US disruptions
Senior Editors for Recycling Arianne Perez and Matt Tudball discuss the challenges faced across the Asia and Europe R-PET markets.While both markets have their unique dynamics, they have both been hit by the weaker-than-expected demand for recycled material in 2023, and face similar problems in terms of high stocks, low buying interest and risk of consolidation amongst recyclers.
There are some small glimmers of hope, however, but the outlook for the rest of the year remains fairly flat.
Urea prices are declining in August after a rally in July as buyers get spooked by China’s return to the export market. There is lack of demand in almost every market after Chinese suppliers agreed to ship over a million tonnes to India.
Sylvia Traganida speaks to senior urea editor Deepika Thapliyal to discuss the increase in Chinese exports and the outlook for the market in the near to medium term.
In this podcast, ICIS industry analysts Sikee Shi and Jady Ma discuss the recent development and outlook for China's acetic acid market.
The global PET market has faced many challenges during 2023, and in this latest podcast, Senior Editor for PET in Europe Caroline Murray chats to Melissa Wheeler, Markets Editor for the US PET market, and Daniel Lopes, Senior Editor for the Latin America PET market about their respective markets, including:
- Europe PET market continues to battle low demand despite summer season
- US PET volumes remain flat while PX price challenges continue
- LatAm PET markets prepare for peak bottled beverage season
Polyols European report editor Zubair Adam discusses the flow of polyether polyols imports into Europe from Asia with Shannen Ng, Asian report editor for polyols.
Polyols European report editor Zubair Adam discusses the flow of polyether polyols imports into Europe from Asia with Shannen Ng, Asian report editor for polyols.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Southeast Asia and India’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets are seeing better demand in Q3, amid supply shortages in northeast Asia and the US.
In this chemical podcast, ICIS Markets Editors Damini Dabholkar and Jonathan Chou discuss recent market conditions and what’s lies ahead for PVC.
- Restocking healthy in India in July, despite heavy rains
- Demand conditions mixed in SE Asia, supply cuts expected in NE Asia in Aug
- Optimistic sentiment abounds as yuan-denominated prices see gains
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia's recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market continued to see weak demand and ample supply. On the other hand, virgin PET saw some restocking, even as supply grew on account of new capacities. China's demand was healthy in August, with several producers already sold out.
In this chemical Podcast, ICIS Markets Editor Damini Dabholkar speaks with Markets Reporter Zachary Tia, Senior Editor Arianne Perez and Senior Analyst Jimmy Zhang on recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.
As China’s manufacturing economy stagnates, chemical companies may have to close plants amid rampant overcapacity.
- China’s manufacturing economy is shrinking
- Demographics, construction bubble, poor export markets fuel downturn
- Expect China’s economy to be flat or very slow to grow
- Polypropylene (PP) and other capacity may need to close as overcapacity rises
- Governments now saddled with rising repayments on stimulus
- Energy sector investment in net zero projects is disappointing
As the European polymers market approches basement level prices, may players are looking upwards and hoping for a price recovery.
This optimism has smashed head long into the sun loungers scattered around the August holiday season.
There are some sellers looking to increase their offers from July to August but general sentiment remains weak and demand difficult to invigorate.
Join European PE/PP editors Ben Lake and Vicky Ellis along with senior consultant John Richardson, who gives us the latest outlook on the all important Asian market.
Global vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) pricing is under pressure from weak demand, particularly from the key construction sector.
Europe VAM report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to US editor Kevin Callahan and Asia-Pacific editor Josh Quah about global market conditions, upcoming new capacity and expectations to the end of the year.
LONDON (ICIS)--Weak consumption and lengthy supply are putting downwards pressure on the European and US acetic acid markets.
Though unplanned shutdowns have tightened the market in Asia - particularly in China - underwhelming demand is limiting longer term pressure on pricing.
Europe report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to US editor Kevin Callahan and Asia-Pacific editor Josh Quah about global market conditions, upcoming new capacity and expectations for the coming months.
Soft demand, economic headwinds and limited output define Europe and Asia Pacific’s oxo-alcohols and plasticizers spot markets. Northeast Asian market participants are optimistic the markets will see seasonal improvements in Q3 but European sources’ outlooks are gloomy as economic pressures persist.
Asia Pacific market editor, Julia Tan, joins Europe market reporter, Nicole Simpson, to discuss production, trade flows and demand outlooks for the oxo-alcohols and plasticizers markets.
BARCELONA (ICIS)—Chemical business leaders need to up their game to end the industry’s reliance on oil and gas as the climate emergency gathers pace.
- Chemical industry still too wedded to oil and gas
- Post-petrochemical transformation needs to start now
- Must become part of the solution, not the problem
- Developing world growth may slow or go negative, preventing emergence of middle class
- New demand for chemicals to mitigate climate change
- Oil and gas companies may swallow up chemicals companies
- Consumers may consume less energy and materials, so smaller scale plants suitable
- Regulators push demand-side reform to cut consumption
LONDON (ICIS)--The July oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets in Europe continue to see subdued spot trading activity as economic pressures amid the summer vacation season weigh on the value chain.
A meaningful recovery in demand for the remainder of 2023 is not anticipated by market participants, as economic challenges are not expected to ease significantly soon.
Butyl acetate (butac) editor Marion Boakye speaks to oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch about the current market dynamics.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia's acetic acid market is seeing patchy demand, while on the supply side, new capacities are expected this year. In the downstream ethyl acetate (etac) market, however, restocking is taking place as exchange rates become more favourable for imports.
In this chemical Podcast, ICIS Senior editor Melanie Wee and Markets editor Josh Quah discuss recent market conditions and the outlook for both products in Asia, while ICIS Analyst Yusuf Atcha shares his perspective on the situation in the European market.
- Acetic acid turnarounds in late Q3 may be offset by new capacity startups
- Demand patchy, continues to face macroeconomic headwinds
- Asia ethyl acetate import demand encouraged by favourable exchange rate
In this podcast, ICIS Industry Analyst Joanne Wang and Amy Yu discuss the supply-demand situations and the outlook for China's ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) market.
BARCELONA (ICIS)—Certain chemical companies are bucking the trend by investing heavily in Europe when many of their peers are refocussing elsewhere.
- Companies such as INEOS, Adnoc bet on future in Europe
- Gain market access, technology, production efficiency
- Energy cost disadvantage likely to persist
- Imported US ethane captures feedstock advantage
- US seen by some as more attractive than Europe for investment
- Chemical companies need to take bold steps to thrive in Europe
ICIS Senior Analyst, Plastics Recycling Helen McGeough talks to Senior Editor, Recycling, Matt Tudball about European Commission Regulation (EU) 2022/1616 on recycled plastic materials and articles intended to come into contact with foods in relation to the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market.
The regulation sets out a series of deadlines by which certain packaging technologies or processes need to be registered with the Commission and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) by. The discussion focuses on some potential consequences for those companies who have missed, or were not aware of those deadlines, and what that might mean for the use of R-PET in certain types of food packaging going forward.
Senior Editors Caroline Murray and Matt Tudball discuss the challenges and uncertainties faced by the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET (R-PET) markets so far this year, and talk about some possible scenarios that may arise during the summer months, including:
- Heatwaves in Europe may entice PET demand
- R-PET over-supply becoming an issue
- Concerns in the PET market over threat of increasing upstream PX prices
- More PET bottle consumption leads to higher bottle bale stocks in R-PET market
SINGAPORE (ICIS) – Asia methanol prices were affected by falling feedstock prices, increased supply and a challenging macroeconomic scenario in H1 2023.
In this chemical podcast, Damini Dabholkar speaks with ICIS editor Keven Zhang and analyst Ann Sun to discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.
- Tumbling feedstock prices weigh down methanol price in H1 2023
- Increased supply conditions persist
- Asia demand affected by challenging macroeconomic landscape
BANGKOK (ICIS)—Thailand’s polyethylene (PE) market is seeing slow demand on account of reduced tourism, while additional expected capacities are likely to cap recovery.
In this chemical Podcast, ICIS Senior editor Izham Ahmad discusses recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in southeast Asia.
- Finished goods demand in Thailand slows, under pressure from reduced tourism
- Additional capacity expected in SE Asia in coming months
- Few signs of market recovery, 2023 growth rate down from 2021-2022 levels
Falling chemical prices could be a leading indicator of a switch from inflation to deflation in the broader economy.
- Chemical industry leading indicator for wider economy
- Spike in energy prices, supply chain disruption caused price hikes, inflation
- Poor demand and excess supply could deflate prices
- European industries introduce longer summer shutdowns
- Central bank policies encouraged too much growth in industrial capacity
- GLobal economy now governed by real, underlying supply and demand
- Aging populations around the world drag on demand growth
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia and Middle East isocyanates markets are softening on slow demand, despite some tightness in H1 2023.
In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Shannen Ng discuss recent market conditions while ICIS analyst Jenny Yi shares an outlook ahead in Asia.
- Additional TDI capacity comes on stream in Asia, demand remains tepid
- PMDI exports from China rise, demand in GCC picks up after Eid-ul-Adha break
- Downstream sectors to see slower-than-expected recovery in H2 2023
The phosphates and ammonia markets have seen significant price settlements recently, as a lack of demand continues in both.
Senior ammonia editor Sylvia Traganida and phosphates market editor Chris Vlachopoulos discuss the latest developments in the markets.
HOUSTON (ICIS)--Global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets remain bearish as macroeconomic concerns mount and fears over a global recession grow.
In this latest podcast, ICIS Senior Editor Lucas Hall in the US and Markets Editor Nazif Nazmul in Europe share the latest developments.
- Feedstock, ACN markets bearish as supply outpaces demand
- Buyers at contract minimums alongside macroeconomic concerns
- US players wary of inventory build during Atlantic Hurricane season
- Spot availability ample, demand weak
- Roehm shifting LA MMA production to Texas in 2025
ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibres for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.
BARCELONA (ICIS)—Distributor DKSH has been exposed to a contraction in demand since Q4 2022 but remains focussed on transforming the business to create geographic and product balance through mergers & acquisitions (M&A) and organic growth.
- Asia DKSH end users destocking, low demand, falling prices
- China – domestic, export demand falling, oversupply, margin pressure
- Consumers move to low cost products especially in food, personal care
- Industrial demand depressed
- North America – Q4 demand collapse, cheap imports from China gain market share
- Europe affected by inflation, energy prices, industrial policy
- Personal care, food, pharma fare better than industrials
- Turning point possible Q4 2023/Q1 2024
- Downturn longer, deeper and more impactful
- DKSH aims for balance between life sciences, industrials
- M&A targets Europe, US to help balance regions
- Digitalization, artificial intelligence to transform distribution
Cracker operating rates around the world are falling as sales volumes decline and new capacities create more imbalance between supply and demand.
- Global cracker operating rates 80% 2022/23 from 90% in 2015
- Chemical sales volumes decline double-digits in Q1, Q2, Q3
- US cracker will have to run at reduced operating rates
- Golden Triangle Polymers project in Texas, will add 2m tonne/year capacity in 2026-2027
- Europe will rationalise cracker fleet
- INEOS One, Sabic Wilton, UK crackers will lighten Europe feedstock mix
- Netherlands-based cracker expected to close in 2024
- China will continue to import cheap US ethylene
- Expect revisions to forecasts for 2023
Sylvia Traganida speaks to senior markets editor for potash and sulphuric acid Andy Hemphill about the impact of Canadian potash marketing arm Canpotex's surprising $307/tonne CFR China MOP supply contract on the global trade.
LONDON (ICIS)--June has been a month of unexpected, unseasonal gloom for polypropylene and polyethylene in Europe. Poor demand, triple digit contract price drops, force majeures were the backdrop for Europe’s first new PP plant in 15 years starting production in Poland. Meanwhile, Turkey’s market is digesting Erdogan’s re-election.
Polyolefins editors Vicky Ellis, Ben Lake and Samantha Wright discuss the key trends for June and what is expected for July.
In this podcast, ICIS Industry Analyst Joanne Wang and Amy Yu discuss recent development and outlook in China's polyethylene (PE) market.
LONDON (ICIS)--The June oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets in Europe continue to be sluggish as economic pressures weigh on the value chain.
These challenge have led to weak end use demand, and this is coupled with a long supply picture within the region.
In this episode, oxo-alcohols market reporter Nicole Simpson, glycol ethers market reporter Cameron Birch, acrylate esters market reporter Mathew Jolin-Beech and butyl acetate (butac) market reporter Marion Boakye discuss the issues facing these markets, and how difficult the summer outlook is too.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The Asian base oils markets continue to see tricky times ahead as ample supply coincides with weak demand.
- Producers' margins may come under pressure
- Group II 150N and 500N FOB (Free on Board) Northeast Asia prices reached highs in late-April
- Group III supply of South Korea origin cargoes to increase as turnarounds conclude
In this podcast, markets editor Julia Tan speaks with senior editor Matthew Chong, senior industry analyst Whitney Shi, and Base Oils Market Analyst Jenny Ma to discuss how the market fared in the first half as well as the outlook in the second half of a challenging year.
I.C.I.S. will be launching the monthly Asian base oil forecast on June 27, which will provide price forecasts and analyses of market drivers for the Group I, II, and III base oils market across a period of 18 months.
Demand in Q2 is disappointing in the Europe acetone, phenol and derivative chain, despite energy cost relief, amid macro-economic challenges and Asian import competition, supply is ample and prices are under pressure. There is no sign of any near term demand recovery in sight, not least over the summer.
Europe ICIS editors Heidi Finch (bisphenol A and epoxy resins) Jane Gibson (acetone and phenol), Mathew Jolin-Beech (methyl methacrylate, MMA), and Meeta Ramnani (polycarbonate, PC) analyse trends in the acetone, phenol and derivatives markets.
- Europe acetone and phenol demand remains weak, despite energy relief
- European PC is a buyer’s-market, amid low demand, import pressures
- MMA demand remains weak and supply long, imports weigh
- Europe BPA and epoxy resins under pressure in slow and competitive environment
- Whether China/Asia can redress market imbalances, economic factors key
Europe’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets are suffering from chronic oversupply and poor demand as new capacities elsewhere target the region.
- Europe PE, PP markets tally with LANXESS CEO warning of collapsed demand
- Europe PE, PP see chronic oversupply, poor demand
- Prices crash as all downstream sectors except automotive suffer
- Consumers choose products with cheaper packaging
- Convertors switch to cheaper polymers such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
- Europe PE, PP producers operate at minimal rates of 65-70%
- Consumers spend on travel and services, not goods
- Time to move on from business as usual approach
Reintroduction of the import duty on urea and ammonia in Europe, India’s inability to buy its targeted volume in a recent tender, and fresh uncertainty around gas prices in Europe is expected to lend support to urea prices in the short term.
The longer-term forecast is not as smooth, with demand for nitrogen fertilizers lacking in every major country.
In this podcast, senior ammonia editor, Sylvia Traganida speaks to her urea counterpart Deepika Thapliyal on what to expect in the months to come.
In this podcast, ICIS Industry Analyst Claire Gao and Sikee Shi discusses developments in China's N-butanol (NBA) and downstream market.
LONDON (ICIS)--European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor, Melissa Hurley, looks at the global situation for MEG with Judith Wang, Cindy Qiu and Melissa Wheeler.
- Europe, Asia demand outlook not as positive as expected
- Imports from US and India weigh on Asia sentiment; East China MEG inventories high
- US exports to China have grown due to weak domestic demand, higher margins on low feedstock costs
Additional reporting from senior editor Judith Wang, Cindy Qiu and Melissa Wheeler.
Isocyanates European report editor Zubair Adam discusses the flow of crude methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) imports into Europe from Asia with Shannen Ng, Asian report editor for isocyanates.
Isocyanates European report editor Zubair Adam discusses the flow of crude methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) imports into Europe from Asia with Shannen Ng, Asian report editor for isocyanates.
The demand for ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) has increased in the past month with peak-summer driving season approaching. For ETBE producers, it is essential to get good premiums as the prices of its key-feedstock bioethanol are not always low.
In this podcast, markets editor, Nazif Nazmul and markets reporter, Meeta Ramnani, discuss the impact of bioethanol on the ETBE market and the expectations in July and August.
Senior Editors for Recycling Emily Friedman and Matt Tudball discuss the current state of recycled markets in the US and Europe, looking at the particular challenges both regions face in terms of over-supply amid weak demand, and what the coming months might hold.
The Asia caprolactam market continues to navigate rough waters, with ample supply and poor demand weighing on sentiment.
In this podcast, markets editors Julia Tan and Josh Quah discuss structural changes to the Asia caprolactam markets, the subsequent impact of these changes on the downstream nylon markets, and what the third quarter is likely to witness in terms of demand and supply.
As China’s economy decelerates and the shift to renewable energy gathers pace, prepare for much greater volatility in oil and chemical markets.
- China enjoyed stellar economic and chemicals growth 1992-2021
- Burst property bubble, poor demographics now drag economy down
- Possibility of negative polymers growth
- China needs to diversify economy, invest in pensions and healthcare
- Rapid switch to renewables undermining oil markets
- End of fossil fuel age will bring huge volatility to oil and chemical markets
- Major new EU climate legislation faces criticism for lack of industry focus
- World economy may be mired in industrial recession
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) trade flows within China may adjust in response to the US Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) recent ban on imports on goods produced by Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical.
The DHS announced the ban on 9 June, and it comes into effect on 12 June.
Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical is a carbide-based polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producer located in China, with 1.8m tonnes/year of PVC production capacity, according to ICIS data.
In this podcast, markets editor Julia Tan speaks with markets editor Jonathan Chou on the ban's immediate and long-term implications on the Asian PVC market.
In this podcast, ICIS analyst Mason Liang talk about some developments in east China’s acetone market.
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Recycled Plastics senior analyst Andrea Bassetti and US Recycled Plastics senior editor Emily Friedman discuss the main takeaways from the recent webinar event, "Talking Trash at the FTC: Recyclable Claims and the Green Guides" hosted by the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) which was focused on potential updates to the definition of recyclability according to the FTC's "Green Guides".
The FTC Green Guides are designed to help marketers avoid making environmental claims that mislead consumers, which include claims around recyclability or recycled content on products and packaging. They were last updated in 2012 and are currently undergoing another revision.
The FTC has received over 1,200 public comments on the Green Guide revisions, and will continue to accept comments until 13 June.
Key takeaways from the event included:
- Perspectives on the definition of "recyclable" or "recyclability" and if access to recycling should remain the threshold, or if the definition should extend further into the value chain through sortation and end market viability vs being pulled back to focus on technical recycling feasibility.
- Input from consumer surveys and studies which show a variety of consumer understanding
- Do consumers know how to recycle based on the current labeling guidance
- What consumers think recycling means
- The role of chemical recycling within recycablility claims
- Do consumers recognize open loop processes as recycling
- Should environmental benefit be factored into recycling claims based on consumer intention
A recording of the original FTC event can be found here.
Asian propylene (C3) prices have fallen for four consecutive weeks on the back of poor polypropylene (PP) performance. Markets editor Julia Tan speaks with senior editor Jackie Wong on market fundamentals in the Asian C3 and PP markets.
- Turnarounds provide limited support for C3 on the back of ample Chinese supply
- Q3 PP market fundamentals likely to remain similar to Q2
- Market participants await Chinese demand recovery
The outlook for all fertilizers is weak in the second half of the year as buyers are scared to step in, with several of them having bought too high in 2022 and then stuck with high priced stocks. The weak outlook on prices will mean many of them will continue to buy hand to mouth and wait till the last moment to step in.
The ICIS fertilizers team discuss the latest market developments in the market from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) conference.
The IFA annual conference was held in Prague on 22-24 May.
Europe gas prices will remain high, and shortages persist, for 2-3 years with major risks for winter 2023, according to scenario analysis by ICIS.
- Winter 2023 supply risk more severe than this winter
- Mild weather gives false sense of security over gas supplies, prices
- Europe will have to maintain existing demand cuts throughout 2023
- Worse supply threat for peak demand winter 2023 than this year
- China revival would threaten Europe liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies
- Europe receives +50 bcm LNG, -63 bcm Russian gas January-October 2022 year-on-year
- Planned projects could add 16BCM to Europe LNG supply
- More LNG investment needed to fully replace Russian gas
- Gas prices forecast to remain above €100/MwH for 2-3 years
- Long-term Germany loses cheap Russian gas, exposed to global prices
- Brenntag’s proposed merger with Univar highlights change in chemical distribution
Urea prices are down 25-50% from record highs touched in April. The outlook for the market remains soft, as European producers have restarted, while demand is thin in most import hubs.
Senior Editor Sylvia Traganida talks to ICIS urea expert Deepika Thapliyal about the current trends in the urea market.
LONDON (ICIS)--Global holidays loom large, with Thanksgiving taking place this week, Christmas a month away and the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations on the horizon, taking place at the end of January 2023.
While in some ways the world is in a markedly different place, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy and cost of living crisis, in some ways the same challenges persist as the pandemic and pressure to save the environment remain prevalent issues.
· The shutdown of the Yansab plant in Saudi Arabia in 2023 indicates about poor demand pickup anticipated in China
· China’s continuing zero-COVID policies, continue to weigh on both manufacturing and services sectors ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations
· The key takeaways from the COP 27 summit and how this will impact the chemicals industry
· Industry needs legislative guidance on sustainability metrics but market forces are determining an increased rate of change
On the Think Tank podcast this week Senior Reporter for Europe Morgan Condon, talks to ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting about the current trends impacting the chemicals sector.
LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols value chain faces the ongoing challenge of weak demand and is gripped by uncertainties.
In this ICIS podcast, European editors Cameron Birch, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest developments for oxo-alcohols and its derivative markets.
LONDON (ICIS)--After several challenging years in the wake of the pandemic, volatile geopolitical conditions and a tough macroeconomic backdrop mean that things are unlikely to turn a corner for global chemicals producers heading into the new year.
Senior Economist for Global Chemicals Kevin Swift talks to senior reporter for Europe Morgan Condon about the outlook for the coming year, and the key features for the market in 2023.
LONDON (ICIS)--After several challenging years in the wake of the pandemic, volatile geopolitical conditions and a tough macroeconomic backdrop mean that things are unlikely to turn a corner for global chemicals producers heading into the new year.
Senior Economist for Global Chemicals Kevin Swift talks to senior reporter for Europe Morgan Condon about the outlook for the coming year, and the key features for the market in 2023.
SINGAPORE (ICIS) --The base oils markets in Asia and the Middle East remain mixed in Q4 2022, tracking varied supply and demand conditions across different grades.
In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Matthew Chong and Veena Pathare discuss the factors driving base oil prices with an outlook on Q1 2023.
- Asian Group I base oil tight supply to ease, Group II supply to lengthen
- Middle East sees balanced Group I demand and supply, tempered Group II imports demand
- Asian Group III producers focused on Europe, US due to higher netbacks
SINGAPORE (ICIS) --The base oils markets in Asia and the Middle East remain mixed in Q4 2022, tracking varied supply and demand conditions across different grades.
In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Matthew Chong and Veena Pathare discuss the factors driving base oil prices with an outlook on Q1 2023.
- Asian Group I base oil tight supply to ease, Group II supply to lengthen
- Middle East sees balanced Group I demand and supply, tempered Group II imports demand
- Asian Group III producers focused on Europe, US due to higher netbacks
Europe’s petrochemicals and inorganics sector has collapsed to operating rates and production last seen in the global financial crisis, acceleration towards low carbon future required.
- Europe basic chemicals operating rate plummets for six months to 57.7%
- Europe chemicals must pursue a low carbon, renewables future to succeed
- Chemical industry can become much less energy-intensive and localised
- Europe’s industrial base should move in the same direction
- Gas prices have fallen from record highs, but still impacting margins
- Producers can minimise impact by switching feedstocks, energy sources
- Signs of extended Christmas shutdowns for downstream industries
- High gas prices expected to persist through 2023
- China slowdown expected to persist despite relaxed zero-Covid policy
Europe’s petrochemicals and inorganics sector has collapsed to operating rates and production last seen in the global financial crisis, acceleration towards low carbon future required.
- Europe basic chemicals operating rate plummets for six months to 57.7%
- Europe chemicals must pursue a low carbon, renewables future to succeed
- Chemical industry can become much less energy-intensive and localised
- Europe’s industrial base should move in the same direction
- Gas prices have fallen from record highs, but still impacting margins
- Producers can minimise impact by switching feedstocks, energy sources
- Signs of extended Christmas shutdowns for downstream industries
- High gas prices expected to persist through 2023
- China slowdown expected to persist despite relaxed zero-Covid policy
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.
Senior editor Mark Milam talks to Sylvia Traganida about what the latest update reveals about US corn and soybean crops and also the report’s impact on the US domestic fertilizer markets.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.
Senior editor Mark Milam talks to Sylvia Traganida about what the latest update reveals about US corn and soybean crops and also the report’s impact on the US domestic fertilizer markets.
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) supply outweighs demand while the cost of containers drop, putting downward pressure on the value of PET around most of the world.
Europe report editor Caroline Murray discusses global dynamics with editorial colleagues Melissa Wheeler for the US, Daniel Lopes for Latin America and Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa editor, Hazel Goh.
- Q4 and 2023 US demand will continue to weaken, while stocks stay high
- Latin America consumption expected to increase with World Cup and holidays
- Asia spot supply ample despite PET maintenance plans in Nov-Dec
- Europe producers battle cheap imports and hesitancy among buyers
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) supply outweighs demand while the cost of containers drop, putting downward pressure on the value of PET around most of the world.
Europe report editor Caroline Murray discusses global dynamics with editorial colleagues Melissa Wheeler for the US, Daniel Lopes for Latin America and Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa editor, Hazel Goh.
- Q4 and 2023 US demand will continue to weaken, while stocks stay high
- Latin America consumption expected to increase with World Cup and holidays
- Asia spot supply ample despite PET maintenance plans in Nov-Dec
- Europe producers battle cheap imports and hesitancy among buyers
The COP27 conference pushes the climate emergency back up the business agenda, and the energy-intensive chemical industry bears a heavy responsibility to act quickly.
- Number of low carbon initiatives is very encouraging
- But little evidence of effective carbon abatement
- Investment at scale is growing but time is running out
- Short-term, step-by-step targets can help
- INEOS boosts Plastic Energy project from 30,000 to 100,000 tonnes/year
- Dow CEO Jim Fitterling champions hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, small nuclear reactors
- Emerging economies lack infrastructure to recycle at scale
The COP27 conference pushes the climate emergency back up the business agenda, and the energy-intensive chemical industry bears a heavy responsibility to act quickly.
- Number of low carbon initiatives is very encouraging
- But little evidence of effective carbon abatement
- Investment at scale is growing but time is running out
- Short-term, step-by-step targets can help
- INEOS boosts Plastic Energy project from 30,000 to 100,000 tonnes/year
- Dow CEO Jim Fitterling champions hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, small nuclear reactors
- Emerging economies lack infrastructure to recycle at scale
Demand for isopropanol (IPA) is globally soft, though tight supply in Asia has contributed to continued limited exports to Europe.
Limited availability also drove firming prices in Asia, though weak demand has resulted in pricing falling since this episode was recorded in late October.
Europe report editor Nick Cleeve discusses market conditions and tradeflows with Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry.
Demand for isopropanol (IPA) is globally soft, though tight supply in Asia has contributed to continued limited exports to Europe.
Limited availability also drove firming prices in Asia, though weak demand has resulted in pricing falling since this episode was recorded in late October.
Europe report editor Nick Cleeve discusses market conditions and tradeflows with Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry.
SINGAPORE (ICIS) –India’s PVC market has been on a steady downtrend over the last year.
In this podcast, PVC editor Damini Dabholkar discusses recent developments and what lies ahead for PVC.
- Weak demand, ample supply keeps sentiment bearish
- Competitive US offers keep buyers cautious
- Unfavourable exchange rate affects imports
SINGAPORE (ICIS) –India’s PVC market has been on a steady downtrend over the last year.
In this podcast, PVC editor Damini Dabholkar discusses recent developments and what lies ahead for PVC.
- Weak demand, ample supply keeps sentiment bearish
- Competitive US offers keep buyers cautious
- Unfavourable exchange rate affects imports
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS editor Samuel Wong discusses with Angeline Soh on recent developments and the outlook for the Asian paraxylene (PX) and Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) markets.
PX prices had recently rallied, on the back of gains in upstream crude values. Its gap with naphtha had also recovered from the lows of around $275/tonne in early November.
- Narrow PX, MX price gap curtails higher run rates
- Uneconomical Chinese downstream margins a headwind
- Start up of new capacities to ease current supply tightness
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS editor Samuel Wong discusses with Angeline Soh on recent developments and the outlook for the Asian paraxylene (PX) and Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) markets.
PX prices had recently rallied, on the back of gains in upstream crude values. Its gap with naphtha had also recovered from the lows of around $275/tonne in early November.
- Narrow PX, MX price gap curtails higher run rates
- Uneconomical Chinese downstream margins a headwind
- Start up of new capacities to ease current supply tightness
US polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets face declining margins as a new wave of capacity comes onstream amid recessionary conditions in major markets.
- US PP suffers low demand, margins, new capacity due online
- US PP operating at only 73% in September, inventories rising
- US economy expanded in October but prospect of recession
- PP exports more feasible as US propylene costs have fallen
- US will follow China, switching from net PP importer to exporter
- Older PP plants may close in Europe, Asia as US exports more
- Huge US PE inventories built, but now declining
- US PE operating rates fell from 90% earlier in 2022 to 75%
- First wave of US PE expansions boosted capacity by 40%
- Second wave onstream 2021-2023, pressuring market further
- New capacities mean US must export 45-48% of its PE to sustain operating rates
- Trough conditions for US PE forecast by Q3 2023
US polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets face declining margins as a new wave of capacity comes onstream amid recessionary conditions in major markets.
- US PP suffers low demand, margins, new capacity due online
- US PP operating at only 73% in September, inventories rising
- US economy expanded in October but prospect of recession
- PP exports more feasible as US propylene costs have fallen
- US will follow China, switching from net PP importer to exporter
- Older PP plants may close in Europe, Asia as US exports more
- Huge US PE inventories built, but now declining
- US PE operating rates fell from 90% earlier in 2022 to 75%
- First wave of US PE expansions boosted capacity by 40%
- Second wave onstream 2021-2023, pressuring market further
- New capacities mean US must export 45-48% of its PE to sustain operating rates
- Trough conditions for US PE forecast by Q3 2023
Demand for MEK is weak in Europe amid softer gas and energy pricing, while the ongoing zero-Covid policy in China is limiting activity in Asia as well.
US demand is relatively steady as pent up demand from earlier this year is continuing to drive consumption, though wider economic weakness is set to result in reduced activity for this region as well.
European report editor Nick Cleeve discusses market conditions, tradeflows and the global outlook for MEK with Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry.
Demand for MEK is weak in Europe amid softer gas and energy pricing, while the ongoing zero-Covid policy in China is limiting activity in Asia as well.
US demand is relatively steady as pent up demand from earlier this year is continuing to drive consumption, though wider economic weakness is set to result in reduced activity for this region as well.
European report editor Nick Cleeve discusses market conditions, tradeflows and the global outlook for MEK with Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry.
This special post-K Fair podcast is one of a mini-series which examines the themes, trends and the mood at one of Europe’s most important downstream plastics events.
ICIS editors Will Beacham, Stephanie Wix, Miguel Rodriguez-Fernandez, Heidi Finch and Chris Barker discuss two of the petrochemical industry’s most important markets – automotive and construction.
- Automotive and construction demand down 20-50% year on year
- Hopes of rebound by Q2,3 2023
- Consumers focus on essentials, hurt by cost of living crisis
This special post-K Fair podcast is one of a mini-series which examines the themes, trends and the mood at one of Europe’s most important downstream plastics events.
ICIS editors Will Beacham, Stephanie Wix, Miguel Rodriguez-Fernandez, Heidi Finch and Chris Barker discuss two of the petrochemical industry’s most important markets – automotive and construction.
- Automotive and construction demand down 20-50% year on year
- Hopes of rebound by Q2,3 2023
- Consumers focus on essentials, hurt by cost of living crisis
After two long years in the shadow of Covid-19, many will have felt things are back to normal as they returned to meetings in person in October at K, the plastics and rubber trade fair that filled the halls of Dusseldorf’s Messe.
Officially 3,037 exhibitors and 176,000 trade visitors attended. So what was the mood for polymers and packaging sectors?
In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Vicky Ellis asks fellow editors Samantha Wright and Caroline Murray, and returning polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) consultant Linda Naylor, about what the PE, PP, ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets were focused on.
After two long years in the shadow of Covid-19, many will have felt things are back to normal as they returned to meetings in person in October at K, the plastics and rubber trade fair that filled the halls of Dusseldorf’s Messe.
Officially 3,037 exhibitors and 176,000 trade visitors attended. So what was the mood for polymers and packaging sectors?
In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Vicky Ellis asks fellow editors Samantha Wright and Caroline Murray, and returning polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) consultant Linda Naylor, about what the PE, PP, ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets were focused on.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—In this podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Li Peng Seng discuss recent developments and the outlook for the Asia polycarbonate (PC) market.
Ample supplies and weak demand have sent import prices of PC in China to a seven-week low in end October and demand outlook is expected to stay poor as weak macroeconomics will continue to weigh on sentiment.
- Pessimistic demand outlook to linger
- Supplies to stay ample
- Spread to stay in the negative zone
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—In this podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Li Peng Seng discuss recent developments and the outlook for the Asia polycarbonate (PC) market.
Ample supplies and weak demand have sent import prices of PC in China to a seven-week low in end October and demand outlook is expected to stay poor as weak macroeconomics will continue to weigh on sentiment.
- Pessimistic demand outlook to linger
- Supplies to stay ample
- Spread to stay in the negative zone
Sylvia Traganida speaks to senior editor for potash and sulphuric acid Andy Hemphill about this week’s market-moving news, as limited demand and high freight rates combine to make long-term contract negotiations difficult.
Sylvia Traganida speaks to senior editor for potash and sulphuric acid Andy Hemphill about this week’s market-moving news, as limited demand and high freight rates combine to make long-term contract negotiations difficult.
HOUSTON (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS deputy managing editor Jane Massingham (Europe) and senior editors Lucas Hall (US) and Chng Li Li (Asia) discuss the latest developments impacting global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets.
- Global demand outlook bearish
- Europe ammonia plants restart but gas outlook precarious amid Russia-Ukraine conflict
- US prices fall with propylene as Asia prices rise with tightened production
- China zero-COVID policy weighs on market sentiment
HOUSTON (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS deputy managing editor Jane Massingham (Europe) and senior editors Lucas Hall (US) and Chng Li Li (Asia) discuss the latest developments impacting global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets.
- Global demand outlook bearish
- Europe ammonia plants restart but gas outlook precarious amid Russia-Ukraine conflict
- US prices fall with propylene as Asia prices rise with tightened production
- China zero-COVID policy weighs on market sentiment
Senior Editors for Recycling Matt Tudball and Arianne Perez recap some of the key recycling and sustainability take aways from the 2022 K Fair in Dusseldorf, Germany, and the similarities between the challenges faced by the Europe and Asia R-PET markets.
Senior Editors for Recycling Matt Tudball and Arianne Perez recap some of the key recycling and sustainability take aways from the 2022 K Fair in Dusseldorf, Germany, and the similarities between the challenges faced by the Europe and Asia R-PET markets.
China’s economic growth will continue at low levels, removing a major source of expanding demand for the global chemical sector.
- President Xi unlikely to alter Zero Covid or economic policies
- China accounted for 67% of global polymers demand growth 2002-2021
- With China's economy fading, global chemicals loses engine of growth
- Strong US dollar, weak local currencies, high inflation hurt emerging economies
- Plastics convertors unable to source raw materials in Africa
- Growing social unrest around the world due to cost-of-living crisis
- Despondent mood in downstream plastics at K Fair
China’s economic growth will continue at low levels, removing a major source of expanding demand for the global chemical sector.
- President Xi unlikely to alter Zero Covid or economic policies
- China accounted for 67% of global polymers demand growth 2002-2021
- With China's economy fading, global chemicals loses engine of growth
- Strong US dollar, weak local currencies, high inflation hurt emerging economies
- Plastics convertors unable to source raw materials in Africa
- Growing social unrest around the world due to cost-of-living crisis
- Despondent mood in downstream plastics at K Fair
CHICAGO (ICIS)--Recycled Plastics Senior Editor Emily Friedman and Markets Reporter Melissa Wheeler discuss the latest developments in plastics packaging at PackExpo 2022 held in Chicago, Illinois, including:
- Current market softness in both R-PET and R-PE due to macroeconomic headwinds
- Oversupply of virgin PE and PET, on high domestic production and the abundance of imports
- Return of seasonal trends within PET demand activity
CHICAGO (ICIS)--Recycled Plastics Senior Editor Emily Friedman and Markets Reporter Melissa Wheeler discuss the latest developments in plastics packaging at PackExpo 2022 held in Chicago, Illinois, including:
- Current market softness in both R-PET and R-PE due to macroeconomic headwinds
- Oversupply of virgin PE and PET, on high domestic production and the abundance of imports
- Return of seasonal trends within PET demand activity
European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor Melissa Hurley looks at the global situation for MEG with Judith Wang, Cindy Qiu and Melissa Wheeler. The market has been characterized by negative margins, difficult demand levels, low prices and lengthy supply for most of 2022. Will the fourth quarter result in more of the same?
European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor Melissa Hurley looks at the global situation for MEG with Judith Wang, Cindy Qiu and Melissa Wheeler. The market has been characterized by negative margins, difficult demand levels, low prices and lengthy supply for most of 2022. Will the fourth quarter result in more of the same?
The current economic and political crisis is the worst since the Second World War, so chemical industry leaders will need to plan carefully for a more complex world.
- Mistakes of central banks since 2008/9 have caused today’s economic problems
- Asset bubbles are now deflating in financial markets and property
- Higher interest rates will require greater return on investments
- Plan for range of scenarios from quick recovery to lengthy downturn
- Planning is more difficult because the world is more complex
The current economic and political crisis is the worst since the Second World War, so chemical industry leaders will need to plan carefully for a more complex world.
- Mistakes of central banks since 2008/9 have caused today’s economic problems
- Asset bubbles are now deflating in financial markets and property
- Higher interest rates will require greater return on investments
- Plan for range of scenarios from quick recovery to lengthy downturn
- Planning is more difficult because the world is more complex
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting there will be less corn and soybean production according to the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.
Senior Editor Mark Milam talks to Sylvia Traganida about what the latest update reveals about US corn and soybean crops and also how this could impact the US domestic fertilizer markets.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting there will be less corn and soybean production according to the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.
Senior Editor Mark Milam talks to Sylvia Traganida about what the latest update reveals about US corn and soybean crops and also how this could impact the US domestic fertilizer markets.
Europe's paraxylene (PX), monoethylene glycol (MEG), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets face difficult times as energy costs put pressure on continental producers and demand ebbs away against a backdrop of gloomy macroeconomic prospect.
ICIS editors Caroline Murray, Melissa Hurley and Miguel Rodriguez-Fernandez discuss the latest developments in these markets after the annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) conference and a few days before the K-Fair trade show that will take place in Germany next week.
Europe's paraxylene (PX), monoethylene glycol (MEG), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) markets face difficult times as energy costs put pressure on continental producers and demand ebbs away against a backdrop of gloomy macroeconomic prospect.
ICIS editors Caroline Murray, Melissa Hurley and Miguel Rodriguez-Fernandez discuss the latest developments in these markets after the annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) conference and a few days before the K-Fair trade show that will take place in Germany next week.
The European Group I base oils export market fell by triple-digits this week with improved supply driving downward pressure. ICIS editors Eashani Chavda and Samantha Wright discuss the latest developments in the market including base oils margins, the outlook for Q4 and the relationship between domestic and export pricing.
The European Group I base oils export market fell by triple-digits this week with improved supply driving downward pressure. ICIS editors Eashani Chavda and Samantha Wright discuss the latest developments in the market including base oils margins, the outlook for Q4 and the relationship between domestic and export pricing.
- Post-holiday re-stocking activities subdued
- Tight PE supply in other Asian regions
- Supply in China may keep rising in Q4
- Post-holiday re-stocking activities subdued
- Tight PE supply in other Asian regions
- Supply in China may keep rising in Q4
LONDON (ICIS)--The annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) conference in Berlin demonstrated a return in appetite for in-person events last week, but the outlook was tempered by the wider macro-economic indicators.
Head of Editorial Strategy Katherine Sale and Lead Analyst Rob Peacock talk to Senior Report for Europe Morgan Condon about the main points of discussion from the event, and what this means for Europe’s chemicals industry looking ahead.
LONDON (ICIS)--The annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) conference in Berlin demonstrated a return in appetite for in-person events last week, but the outlook was tempered by the wider macro-economic indicators.
Head of Editorial Strategy Katherine Sale and Lead Analyst Rob Peacock talk to Senior Report for Europe Morgan Condon about the main points of discussion from the event, and what this means for Europe’s chemicals industry looking ahead.
LONDON (ICIS)—Sustainability continued to dominate conversations at this year’s annual European Petrochemicals Association meeting, but progress in the chemicals sector has been slow as players negotiate the pandemic and the current market down-cycle.
- EPCA attendees trying to grapple with the paradigm shifts in the market
- Expectations for autumn and winter bearish
- Focus on repositioning businesses towards sustainability
- Energy crisis dominates the agenda
- Downturn could last into 2024
- Energy crisis spells end of fossil fuels, which will mean end of naphtha and ethane
- Players facing the most significant down-cycle in years amid slowing China growth
- EPCA conversations centre around how to adapt to sustainability evolution
- Sustainability shift in chems sector remains early stage despite how long the topic has been on the agenda
- Companies that look to the future and act on it will have the advantage
- Players that are slower or less ambitious in responding could face an existential threat
In this Think Tank podcast, Tom Brown interviews ICIS Insight editor Nigel Davis, ICIS senior consultant John Richardson, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.
LONDON (ICIS)—Sustainability continued to dominate conversations at this year’s annual European Petrochemicals Association meeting, but progress in the chemicals sector has been slow as players negotiate the pandemic and the current market down-cycle.
- EPCA attendees trying to grapple with the paradigm shifts in the market
- Expectations for autumn and winter bearish
- Focus on repositioning businesses towards sustainability
- Energy crisis dominates the agenda
- Downturn could last into 2024
- Energy crisis spells end of fossil fuels, which will mean end of naphtha and ethane
- Players facing the most significant down-cycle in years amid slowing China growth
- EPCA conversations centre around how to adapt to sustainability evolution
- Sustainability shift in chems sector remains early stage despite how long the topic has been on the agenda
- Companies that look to the future and act on it will have the advantage
- Players that are slower or less ambitious in responding could face an existential threat
In this Think Tank podcast, Tom Brown interviews ICIS Insight editor Nigel Davis, ICIS senior consultant John Richardson, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.
ICIS Senior Analyst for Plastics Recycling Helen McGeough talks to Senior Editor, Recycling, Matt Tudball about the challenges faced by the European R-PET market due to increased bottle supply, volatile prices and rising energy costs, and what this means for Q4 and 2023.
ICIS Senior Analyst for Plastics Recycling Helen McGeough talks to Senior Editor, Recycling, Matt Tudball about the challenges faced by the European R-PET market due to increased bottle supply, volatile prices and rising energy costs, and what this means for Q4 and 2023.
Europe’s petrochemical sector faces a ‘winter of discontent’, battered by high energy costs, collapsing downstream demand and increased imports from Asia.
- High energy prices hurt production economics
- Downstream demand collapsing in some sectors
- Demand will be -3% for Europe polymers in H2 compared with H1
- September pick up in demand has been weak
- New projects due onstream in Asia will add to global oversupply
- Global PE capacity forecast to rise 6% year-on-year in 2022, 5% in 2023
- China PE demand expected to fall in 2022
- China imports less PE, re-exports more to Europe
- Russia H1 PE exports to Europe rose 20% compared to H2 2021
- Chemical company earnings will be squeezed
Europe’s petrochemical sector faces a ‘winter of discontent’, battered by high energy costs, collapsing downstream demand and increased imports from Asia.
- High energy prices hurt production economics
- Downstream demand collapsing in some sectors
- Demand will be -3% for Europe polymers in H2 compared with H1
- September pick up in demand has been weak
- New projects due onstream in Asia will add to global oversupply
- Global PE capacity forecast to rise 6% year-on-year in 2022, 5% in 2023
- China PE demand expected to fall in 2022
- China imports less PE, re-exports more to Europe
- Russia H1 PE exports to Europe rose 20% compared to H2 2021
- Chemical company earnings will be squeezed
LONDON (ICIS)--The European acrylonitrile (ACN) demand remains flat into October at a low level, but spiking natural gas prices again this week and unknown winter weather in Europe remains key concern.
In this latest podcast, ICIS Deputy Managing Editor Jane Massingham (Europe) about the ACN market in Europe and what lies ahead as sources prepare to attend EPCA.
- Poor demand from all sectors
- Low run rates both up and down the chain
- Natural gas an ongoing uncertainty
- Severity of winter weather could alter markets considerably
- Updates on Asia and US
LONDON (ICIS)--The European acrylonitrile (ACN) demand remains flat into October at a low level, but spiking natural gas prices again this week and unknown winter weather in Europe remains key concern.
In this latest podcast, ICIS Deputy Managing Editor Jane Massingham (Europe) about the ACN market in Europe and what lies ahead as sources prepare to attend EPCA.
- Poor demand from all sectors
- Low run rates both up and down the chain
- Natural gas an ongoing uncertainty
- Severity of winter weather could alter markets considerably
- Updates on Asia and US
Ahead of big industry events EPCA and K Fair, the backdrop for October prices is volatile to say the least, from European PE and PP energy surcharges, to huge propylene and ethylene drops in September, to fractious gas supply outlook and currency volatility.
In this podcast, European PE and PP editors Vicky Ellis, Ben Lake and Samantha Wright are joined by propylene and ethylene senior editor Nel Weddle for a look at what’s driving October contract price talks, and senior market reporter Ed Martin takes us through the factors to watch closely for energy prices.
The ICIS editors also touch on price trends in Turkey and Africa, and how that fits into the global picture.
Visit the ICIS editors at EPCA in Berlin, at the Intercontinental, Tiergarten III, and at K Fair in Düsseldorf, at Hall 8A Stand C20.
Ahead of big industry events EPCA and K Fair, the backdrop for October prices is volatile to say the least, from European PE and PP energy surcharges, to huge propylene and ethylene drops in September, to fractious gas supply outlook and currency volatility.
In this podcast, European PE and PP editors Vicky Ellis, Ben Lake and Samantha Wright are joined by propylene and ethylene senior editor Nel Weddle for a look at what’s driving October contract price talks, and senior market reporter Ed Martin takes us through the factors to watch closely for energy prices.
The ICIS editors also touch on price trends in Turkey and Africa, and how that fits into the global picture.
Visit the ICIS editors at EPCA in Berlin, at the Intercontinental, Tiergarten III, and at K Fair in Düsseldorf, at Hall 8A Stand C20.
LONDON (ICIS)-- Europe's acetone, phenol and derivative chain are going through challenging times as energy costs put pressure on domestic producers and demand softens against a backdrop of gloomy macroeconomic prospects.
Senior editor Heidi Finch talks to Jane Gibson, Mathew Jolin-Beech and Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez about the key features impacting the acetone and phenol markets as well as other downstream products such as bisphenol A (BPA), polycarbonate (PC) and methyl methacrylate (MMA).
LONDON (ICIS)-- Europe's acetone, phenol and derivative chain are going through challenging times as energy costs put pressure on domestic producers and demand softens against a backdrop of gloomy macroeconomic prospects.
Senior editor Heidi Finch talks to Jane Gibson, Mathew Jolin-Beech and Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez about the key features impacting the acetone and phenol markets as well as other downstream products such as bisphenol A (BPA), polycarbonate (PC) and methyl methacrylate (MMA).
LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets continue to face demand concerns and persistently high costs associated with energy. There are fears that energy costs may see another spike in Q4 and that demand may come under additional pressure as macroeconomic headwinds pick up further.
Glycol ethers report editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech and butyl acetate (butac) editor Nick Cleeve about the current conditions on these markets and expectations for the near future.
LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets continue to face demand concerns and persistently high costs associated with energy. There are fears that energy costs may see another spike in Q4 and that demand may come under additional pressure as macroeconomic headwinds pick up further.
Glycol ethers report editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech and butyl acetate (butac) editor Nick Cleeve about the current conditions on these markets and expectations for the near future.
China’s polymers are in bad shape as demand collapses amid a big uptick in capacity additions; global markets beware.
- Common Prosperity reforms slow economy
- End to debt-fuelled growth
- Construction sector collapsing
- Aging population, Zero-Covid policy drag growth
- Export markets slow down
- China polymer markets “worst in 25 years”
- Negative China growth forecast 2022 for high density polyethylene (HDPE), low density PE (LDPE), linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), polypropylene (PP)
- Worst contraction since at least 1990
- China polymer capacity increasing rapidly, leading to oversupply, more exports
- China exports overcapacity, falling prices around the world
China’s polymers are in bad shape as demand collapses amid a big uptick in capacity additions; global markets beware.
- Common Prosperity reforms slow economy
- End to debt-fuelled growth
- Construction sector collapsing
- Aging population, Zero-Covid policy drag growth
- Export markets slow down
- China polymer markets “worst in 25 years”
- Negative China growth forecast 2022 for high density polyethylene (HDPE), low density PE (LDPE), linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), polypropylene (PP)
- Worst contraction since at least 1990
- China polymer capacity increasing rapidly, leading to oversupply, more exports
- China exports overcapacity, falling prices around the world
SINGAPORE (ICIS) – In this podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Ai Teng Lim discuss recent developments and outlook for the Asian butadiene (BD) market.
Discussions for Asia’s spot butadiene (BD) imports have softened with weak downstream demand, and outlook is murky amid an uneven supply picture in Asia.
- Structurally weak downstream demand to prevail
- Supply picture is mixed, mitigating selling pressures
- Ample availability in southeast Asia, but limited output in northeast Asia
SINGAPORE (ICIS) – In this podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Ai Teng Lim discuss recent developments and outlook for the Asian butadiene (BD) market.
Discussions for Asia’s spot butadiene (BD) imports have softened with weak downstream demand, and outlook is murky amid an uneven supply picture in Asia.
- Structurally weak downstream demand to prevail
- Supply picture is mixed, mitigating selling pressures
- Ample availability in southeast Asia, but limited output in northeast Asia
LONDON (ICIS) Wilting downstream demand and stiff inflationary pressure have challenged the European polyolefins market in the third quarter, and this is set to continue heading into 2023.
Senior polyolefins analysts Lorenzo Meazza and Emiliano Basualto talk to Senior Reporter for Europe Morgan Condon about the key features impacting polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) market fundamentals on the coming months.
LONDON (ICIS) Wilting downstream demand and stiff inflationary pressure have challenged the European polyolefins market in the third quarter, and this is set to continue heading into 2023.
Senior polyolefins analysts Lorenzo Meazza and Emiliano Basualto talk to Senior Reporter for Europe Morgan Condon about the key features impacting polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) market fundamentals on the coming months.
The outlook for the urea market is stable to firm even as prices are declining in some regions due to lack of demand in major import hubs such as the US and Brazil. In Europe, production is down as gas costs are still high but warehouses are full with imports. The only market with any demand is India, which was unable to buy a million tonnes in a recent tender.
ICIS senior editor Sylvia Traganida talks with urea expert Deepika Thapliyal on what is going on in the market and what to expect in the next few months.
The outlook for the urea market is stable to firm even as prices are declining in some regions due to lack of demand in major import hubs such as the US and Brazil. In Europe, production is down as gas costs are still high but warehouses are full with imports. The only market with any demand is India, which was unable to buy a million tonnes in a recent tender.
ICIS senior editor Sylvia Traganida talks with urea expert Deepika Thapliyal on what is going on in the market and what to expect in the next few months.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Sustainability efforts unable to shield Asian R-PET and R-PE markets as inflation and mounting fears of recession weigh on trade.
In this recycled polymers podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Arianne Perez discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.
- Cautious buying of R-PET, R-PE cargoes to continue with no immediate rebound in downstream demand
- Bale feedstock supply lengthens across spot markets as recyclers curb transactions
- Cheaper virgin PET, PE cargoes prompt non-sustainability driven uptake to shift away from R-PET, R-PE
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Sustainability efforts unable to shield Asian R-PET and R-PE markets as inflation and mounting fears of recession weigh on trade.
In this recycled polymers podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Arianne Perez discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.
- Cautious buying of R-PET, R-PE cargoes to continue with no immediate rebound in downstream demand
- Bale feedstock supply lengthens across spot markets as recyclers curb transactions
- Cheaper virgin PET, PE cargoes prompt non-sustainability driven uptake to shift away from R-PET, R-PE
Gas prices could fall significantly in the next 2-3 years, relieving pressure on Europe’s beleaguered petrochemical sector.
- Supply crunch ongoing, but prices falling
- Prices could fall further but remain volatile
- Sentiment improving as liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies flow, new terminals open
- Gas prices may decline further in 2-3 years as a bearish cycle emerges
- Demand has fallen by more than 20% for industrial use
- Gas storage is 80%+ full
- Rationing could still be needed if cold, long winter
- China exports polymer price deflation to Europe
- Demand collapsing in auto, construction end use markets
Gas prices could fall significantly in the next 2-3 years, relieving pressure on Europe’s beleaguered petrochemical sector.
- Supply crunch ongoing, but prices falling
- Prices could fall further but remain volatile
- Sentiment improving as liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies flow, new terminals open
- Gas prices may decline further in 2-3 years as a bearish cycle emerges
- Demand has fallen by more than 20% for industrial use
- Gas storage is 80%+ full
- Rationing could still be needed if cold, long winter
- China exports polymer price deflation to Europe
- Demand collapsing in auto, construction end use markets
The Asian methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is snug on reduced run rates and planned turnarounds, while US prices remain very high compared to historic levels on healthy demand following the extreme tightness seen earlier this year.
European demand is quieter and supply is ample, but energy costs driven by natural gas volatility are keeping pressure on pricing.
Europe report editor Nick Cleeve discusses global market conditions with Asia editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry.
The Asian methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is snug on reduced run rates and planned turnarounds, while US prices remain very high compared to historic levels on healthy demand following the extreme tightness seen earlier this year.
European demand is quieter and supply is ample, but energy costs driven by natural gas volatility are keeping pressure on pricing.
Europe report editor Nick Cleeve discusses global market conditions with Asia editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry.
Senior Editor Caroline Murray is joined by Senior Editor, Recycling Matt Tudball to discuss the complexities behind the virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market and how they relate to recycled PET (R-PET).
Senior Editor Caroline Murray is joined by Senior Editor, Recycling Matt Tudball to discuss the complexities behind the virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market and how they relate to recycled PET (R-PET).
Demand for isopropanol (IPA) remains somewhat weak amid lengthy supply in Europe and the US, though lower run rates have resulted in tighter supply in Asia.
Europe IPA report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Tarry about global market conditions for this product.
Demand for isopropanol (IPA) remains somewhat weak amid lengthy supply in Europe and the US, though lower run rates have resulted in tighter supply in Asia.
Europe IPA report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Tarry about global market conditions for this product.
Chemical distributors have resilient business models which make them more downturn-resistant than producers but the sector faces challenging business conditions, especially in Europe.
- In downturn customers switch to distributors for smaller volumes
- Distributor order books are still healthy
- Distributors have more diverse supply and customer base than producers
- Europe chemical distributors concerned about gas price impact
- Focus on cash, working capital in downturn
- Signs of a pick-up in September chemicals markets
- China is dragging Europe prices, margins down
Special guest Dorothee Arns, director general of the European Association of Chemical Distributors #fecc
Chemical distributors have resilient business models which make them more downturn-resistant than producers but the sector faces challenging business conditions, especially in Europe.
- In downturn customers switch to distributors for smaller volumes
- Distributor order books are still healthy
- Distributors have more diverse supply and customer base than producers
- Europe chemical distributors concerned about gas price impact
- Focus on cash, working capital in downturn
- Signs of a pick-up in September chemicals markets
- China is dragging Europe prices, margins down
Special guest Dorothee Arns, director general of the European Association of Chemical Distributors #fecc
Polyols and isocyanates Europe reports editor Zubair Adam discusses with Asian editor Shannen Ng how European supply has been aided by imports coming from Asia.
Polyols and isocyanates Europe reports editor Zubair Adam discusses with Asian editor Shannen Ng how European supply has been aided by imports coming from Asia.
The sulphur market is focusing on the Muntajat tender in the Middle East to give some price direction to the market for Q4. Meanwhile, more phosphates activity is expected from India until the end of the year as DAP prices are weakening and demand is picking up.
Senior sulphur editor Erica Sesay talks to Sylvia Traganida about the latest developments in the market and what lies ahead for Q4.
The sulphur market is focusing on the Muntajat tender in the Middle East to give some price direction to the market for Q4. Meanwhile, more phosphates activity is expected from India until the end of the year as DAP prices are weakening and demand is picking up.
Senior sulphur editor Erica Sesay talks to Sylvia Traganida about the latest developments in the market and what lies ahead for Q4.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s propylene market has seen weak demand with producers facing thin margins. The downstream propylene oxide (PO) market is grappling with supply overhang and poor demand, with buyers preferring to purchase domestic cargoes instead of spot import cargoes.
In this podcast, Damini Dabholkar speaks with editors Julia Tan and Shannen Ng on propylene and its key downstream sectors, propylene oxide (PO) and polypropylene (PP).
- C3 market sees sluggish demand, producers face thin margins
- Chinese PO import markets sentiments dampened by domestic new startup capacities
- Domestic China PO market volatile, speculative
- Downstream polyols and propylene glycol sectors face seasonal lull
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s propylene market has seen weak demand with producers facing thin margins. The downstream propylene oxide (PO) market is grappling with supply overhang and poor demand, with buyers preferring to purchase domestic cargoes instead of spot import cargoes.
In this podcast, Damini Dabholkar speaks with editors Julia Tan and Shannen Ng on propylene and its key downstream sectors, propylene oxide (PO) and polypropylene (PP).
- C3 market sees sluggish demand, producers face thin margins
- Chinese PO import markets sentiments dampened by domestic new startup capacities
- Domestic China PO market volatile, speculative
- Downstream polyols and propylene glycol sectors face seasonal lull
As Q3 nears its end Global base oils fundamentals soften with growing supply and sluggish demand driving downward pressure in the US and European markets. ICIS editors Eashani Chavda and Amanda Hay discuss the latest market drivers for these regions with ICIS analysts Alessia Succi and Michael Connolly.
*On Wednesday, Lubrizol lifted FM that had been in place since the February 2021 winter storm in the US, according to market sources.
As Q3 nears its end Global base oils fundamentals soften with growing supply and sluggish demand driving downward pressure in the US and European markets. ICIS editors Eashani Chavda and Amanda Hay discuss the latest market drivers for these regions with ICIS analysts Alessia Succi and Michael Connolly.
*On Wednesday, Lubrizol lifted FM that had been in place since the February 2021 winter storm in the US, according to market sources.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate (butac) markets are softening on slow demand with regional supply ample.
In this podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Melanie Wee discuss recent market conditions and the outlook for Asia.
- Ample supply reins in restocking
- Import demand to improve at a gradual pace
- Eyes on upstream sector performance
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate (butac) markets are softening on slow demand with regional supply ample.
In this podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Melanie Wee discuss recent market conditions and the outlook for Asia.
- Ample supply reins in restocking
- Import demand to improve at a gradual pace
- Eyes on upstream sector performance
LONDON (ICIS)--Although summer in the northern hemisphere draws to a close, the typical swing in seasonal demand has not returned for September, and the global chemicals industry faces a challenging close of 2022.
- Nordstream 1 remains offline, leaving European producers with limited gas supplies to fuel manufacturing for the rest of the year
- Feedstock chemicals September contract settlements fall, impacting downstream chemicals
- Polyolefins prices in China have also declined in line with the country’s zero-COVID policy
- The nosedive in demand could stimulate a change in consumer spending habits
- Manufacturers in the chemicals industry may pivot to provide services rather than products to cater to shifting demand habits, boosting sustainability initiatives.
In this Think Tank podcast, Morgan Condon talks to ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson, Insight Editor Nigel Davis, and Chairman of New Normal Consulting Paul Hodges.
LONDON (ICIS)--Although summer in the northern hemisphere draws to a close, the typical swing in seasonal demand has not returned for September, and the global chemicals industry faces a challenging close of 2022.
- Nordstream 1 remains offline, leaving European producers with limited gas supplies to fuel manufacturing for the rest of the year
- Feedstock chemicals September contract settlements fall, impacting downstream chemicals
- Polyolefins prices in China have also declined in line with the country’s zero-COVID policy
- The nosedive in demand could stimulate a change in consumer spending habits
- Manufacturers in the chemicals industry may pivot to provide services rather than products to cater to shifting demand habits, boosting sustainability initiatives.
In this Think Tank podcast, Morgan Condon talks to ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson, Insight Editor Nigel Davis, and Chairman of New Normal Consulting Paul Hodges.
Senior polymer editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake are joined by senior consultant John Richardson at a potentially pivotal moment in the story of 2022 polymers.
Many players hoped for a seasonal jolt to awaken the market in September may have been disappointed by expectations for the monomer settlement.
Vicky, Ben and John discuss the the numerous factors that cut undercut any rebound in demand and what lies ahead in the coming volatile months.
The global chemical industry must remain committed to the net zero agenda, and not be distracted by current macroeconomic and geopolitical crises.
- Short-term focus on survival should not distract from long term climate aims
- Climate emergency means low carbon industry is vital
- Scope 3 emissions – from suppliers and customers - typically account for up to 80% of chemicals emissions
- Scope 1 are emissions produced by a company, Scope 2 emissions through the energy used in production
- Very difficult to measure Scope 3 because of data quality, granularity
- Global economy is changing, supporting low carbon, service-based growth models
SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- In this podcast, ICIS editors Damini Dabholkar and Jonathan Chou discuss recent developments and outlook for the Asia and Middle East PVC markets.
The Asia and Middle East PVC markets have experienced severe demand loss over the last few months, with buyers looking to purchase material only on a need basis. The industry is grappling with weak demand, driven by factors like the monsoon, competitively priced deep-sea cargo and bearish market sentiment.
- Asian producers see emerging competition from deep-sea availability
- Buyers not in a hurry to restock at present
- Demand may improve once monsoon, rainy season subsides
In this ICIS podcast, Mathew-Jolin-Beech, the European markets reports, and Li Li Chng, the Asian markets reporter, discuss the European and Asian MMA and PMMA markets.
We discuss how the high energy costs in Europe, coupled with the soft global demand picture and reduced running rates in Asia are affecting the international picture.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s benzene prices have rebounded this week after hitting the lowest level within 2022.
In this podcast, benzene editor Angeline Soh discusses about the reasons behind the capped uptrend.
- Asia benzene price uptrend mitigated by poor derivative demand
- End-use consumption hurt by lockdowns, recession worries, geopolitical conflict
- Upcoming capacity additions further weigh on sentiment
Global acrylonitrile (ACN) editors discuss demand concerns amid long supply.
In this podcast, ICIS deputy managing editor Jane Massingham (Europe) and senior editors Lucas Hall (US) and Chng Li Li (Asia) discuss the latest market developments:
- Cautious sentiment on demand outlook
- Maintenance and production cuts on-going
- Europe experiencing summer slowdown
- Concerns on economy headwinds, high energy costs
- US continues to manage operating rates amid economic headwinds
- Atlantic hurricane season threatens US Gulf Coast
The European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets are facing the seasonal low demand that affects many markets during August, though extremely high energy costs and logistics constraints driven by low water levels on the Rhine are causing some complications
Glycol ethers report editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech and butyl acetate (butac) editor Nick Cleeve about the current conditions on these markets and expectations for the near future.
Recycled Plastics Senior Analyst Sunny Roe and Senior Editor for Recycled Plastics Emily Friedman discuss the latest developments at the 2022 Resource Recycling Conference in Austin, Texas, including:
- Collaborative conversations with the full recycling value chain (Municipalities, Material Recovery Facilities/MRFs, Recyclers, Package producers and Brand owners) on todays biggest challenges, including contamination and commodity price volatility.
- Sessions covering development of recycled product end markets and improvements or additions to US collection infrastructure and systems.
- A preview of Emily's joint session "Getting Real on Plastics" providing market data on US recycled plastic capacity and thus supply, along with projected demand based on corporate recycled content targets and legislation
Asian olefins capacity is set to increase in the coming months, but against the prospect of a global recession and challenging demand it is unclear how this will develop for producers.
Senior analysts Amy Yu and Joey Zhou talks to European Senior Reporter Morgan Condon about the main drivers in the market for the rest of 2022.
Chemical prices are falling around the world just as Europe braces for summer heatwaves, drought and a winter of gas rationing.
- Steep falls in chemicals, polymers have continued into August
- Could indicate falling demand in downstream sectors
- All eyes on autumn to see if demand picks up
- All Asia prices fell in July’s ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX)
- Europe prices moving down towards Asia
- Spreads at historical lows for Asia polyethylene (PE)
- High inflation is fuelling demand destruction
- European chemical companies face drought, high temperatures and gas rationing
- Evonik to boost use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), cut natural gas
- Big switch to LPG could distort trade flows
- Industry must be prepared for possible shut down this winter
Covestro’s full year profit warning, and a sharp downturn in European contract prices, shows how vulnerable the chemical industry is to deteriorating conditions in the second half of the year.
- Covestro profit warning highlights H2 risks
- Flags high energy prices, slowing global economy
- Europe aromatics, olefins contract prices fall sharply
- Could see a return to 1970s/80s period of economic instability
- Risk that China may drag global chemical prices down as logistics flows improve
- Could be negative demand growth in China for polymers 2022/23
- INEOS and BASF committed to major investments in China
- China switching from emerging to advanced economy, expect disruption
- Low carbon chemical production in China could be an opportunity
- Doing business in China carries increased risk of political interference
Methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) pricing has been softening across regions, though European prices have been stabilising on pressure from natural gas and energy costs.
US pricing has also been stabilising and continues to attract imports as it remains far above Asia and Europe.
Europe MEK report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to Asia=Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry about market conditions and pricing across these regions.
European isopropanol (IPA) pricing has stabilised on upstream natural gas costs despite facing similar lengthy supply and weak demand as the US and Asia where prices have been softening.
IPA report editors Julia Tan, Larry Terry and Nick Cleeve discuss global market conditions and export activity.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The first half of 2022 saw widespread cutbacks in Asia’s cracker and downstream operating rates as the market faced more headwinds from the war in Ukraine and COVID flare-ups in China. The path to recovery for companies in the ethylene (C2) value chain will be slow and bumpy in the second half of the year. In this podcast, ICIS editors Yeow Pei Lin, Izham Ahmad and Trixie Yap discuss fundamentals and the outlook for Asia’s ethylene market and some of its downstream products.
· China C2 import rebound likely limited
· PE, MEG demand recovery expected to be fragile, uneven
· China SM capacity growth continues but at slower pace
Cuts in downstream production, an economic downturn, and snarled logistics may complicate efforts by Europe-based chemical companies to plan for winter gas rationing disruption.
- Expect demand destruction in durable goods as inflation bites
- Gas rationing may force downstream convertors to cut production
- Demand for single use plastics may remain strong
- Snarled logistics may prevent products reaching Europe
- Cuts to Europe chemical production could tighten global markets
- Europe is third largest region for global chemicals demand
- Dow Chemical plans to reduce Europe gas exposure
- Chemicals proven to be an important indicator of economic activity
European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake discuss the potential calm before the storm.
Polymer players are expecting little change in August but hopes are pinned on a September recovery.
Vicky and Ben discuss the August holiday season and the numerous possible complications for September onward.
Essential discussion for what could be a key moment for plastics players in 2022.
LONDON (ICIS)--Sanctions against Russian oil products have disrupted trade flows but despite the geopolitical volatility, global demand is yet to abate.
Senior analyst Ajay Parmar talks to European Senior Reporter Morgan Condon about the key drivers affecting the market through the rest of the year, going into 2023.
Chemical and fertilizer producers in Europe are likely to face rationing of gas this winter even if the Nord Stream pipeline does reopen.
- Russian gas supplies to Europe at record lows
- EU expected to publish guidance on gas use and rationing on 20 July
- Nord Stream pipeline scheduled restart on 21 July may be delayed
- Gas rationing likely even if Nord Stream does restart
- Overall storage is at near normal levels of 60%
- Prices 5-6X higher than long-term average
- April-June Europe gas demand fell 15% on long-term average
- If petrochemical sites close could take 2-3 months to fully restart
- Swathe of fertilizer production cuts affect Europe
- High prices mean less seasonal fertilizer stock-building
- Return of peak fertilizer demand season in September
- Production cuts could open new export markets to Europe
- Recession in Europe, China, will hurt some polymer demand
Projected second-quarter financial data for BASF hints that conditions for chemicals players may have been stronger than expected in the second quarter of 2022, but rising COVID-19 infection numbers in China only adds to the slew of bearish news for the second half of the year.
LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols chain faces a slowdown in demand from end use sectors as the wider geopolitical and economic uncertainties begin to bite.
In this ICIS podcast, European editors Cameron Birch, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest developments for oxo-alcohols and its derivative markets.
LONDON (ICIS)--Methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) prices are softening globally on eased supply constraints, though prices in the import dependant US remain at extremely high levels that have encouraged exports from both Asia and Europe.
Europe MEK report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry about current conditions and future market drivers.
The UK chemicals industry is battling the quadruple challenges of Brexit, Covid, the cost of living crisis and the war in Ukraine, according to Stephen Elliott, CEO of UK trade group the Chemical Industries Association.
- UK chemicals face four horsemen of the apocalypse
- Brexit, Covid, cost of living crisis, war in Ukraine
- UK no longer has access to Horizon collaboration programme with EU scientists
- UK suffering academic brain drain
- Disagreement over Northern Ireland protocol threatens free chemicals trade
- Around 60% UK chemicals exports go to EU, 75% imports from EU
- UK chemical exports to EU are recovering
- Consultation on extending UK Reach registration deadline published today
- Main deadline may be delayed from October 2023 to October 2026
- CIA proposes to diverge from “worst excesses” of future EU Reach developments
- UK chemicals CEOs report that it is more difficult now to pass on energy price increases to customers
- Signs that previously robust demand is now faltering
- UK CEOs expect sales to fall in Q3 2022 for the first time since 2020
- Interruptions to German chemical supply could impact Uk supply chains
The isopropanol (IPA) market is seeing weak demand across regions, resulting in little interest in Asian import volumes despite the increase in tradeflow between Asia and Europe earlier this year.
Europe IPA report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan and US editor Larry Terry about global market conditions and the key influences on this commodity.
* Podcast recorded 29 June before European propylene July contract price settled at decrease.
ICIS editors Eashani Chavda, Matthew Chong and Amanda Hay discuss their latest market insights with ICIS analyst Mike Connolly after an eventful World Base Oils and Lubricants Conference. Key topics discussed include: Asian arbitrages, record high prices in Europe, the upcoming US hurricane season, refinery margins and sustainability.
Isocyanates report editor Zubair Adam discusses current demand and supply market trends for Europe with Damini Dabholkar, editor of these products for the Middle East
The isocyanates market is faced with steep production costs and weakening demand across downstream sectors, presenting the industry with a darkening outlook.
Lead Analyst Robert Peacock and Senior Analyst Umberto Torresan talk to Senior Europe Reporter Morgan Condon about the key pressures facing the isocyanates value chain over the second half of the year.
For an in-depth market outlook, visit the ICIS Isocyanates Europe - Price Forecast.
For more information visit our Price Forecasts | Provided by ICIS.
Europe’s chemical industry, particularly in Germany, will face gas rationing if Russia makes deeper cuts to supplies, and a severe winter hits locally and in Asia.
- Europe already faces supply crisis after Russia cut gas supplies to record low
- Germany supplies cut by 60% in June
- European gas prices have rocketed
- Gas storage levels better than last year but worse than 2019
- Germany has raised alarm level, boosting coal power capacity
- Germany chemicals should expect gas rationing
- German gas prices could rise by 30-40% for some buyers, triggering bankruptcies
- If Russia completely cuts gas, emergency measures could ration gas to industry, consumers
- Expect severe gas restrictions if Russia cuts supply and winter is cold in Europe, Asia
- Crisis can be avoided with mild winter, demand controls
- Gas cuts could cause industrial recession in Germany
- Chemical industry must prepare for likely gas cuts
- Longer-term gas crisis will drive local production, recycling
Soaring energy and feedstock costs may see Europe starved of upstream chemicals investments, making a switch to net-zero carbon agenda projects more attractive.
- INEOS halts plan for UK vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) plant, expands in US
- Europe chemicals suffer high gas, energy, oil prices
- Upstream investments may become less attractive
- Investments linked to zero-carbon may be feasible
- Focus on economy, demand patterns, feedstocks for investment decisions
- Recession or even depression possible for global economy
- Asia polymer oversupply, drive to sell more in Europe
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Vietnam is southeast Asia’s biggest PE market in terms of consumption and is a major manufacturing hub for finished polymer products. To keep aligned with changing market dynamics, starting from the week ended 3 June, ICIS has introduced two new assessments to track import prices of HDPE injection and blow moulding grades into Vietnam.
- Vietnam PE market still the most competitive market in southeast Asia
- HDPE prices in Vietnam have opened wide gap vs rest of southeast Asia
- New HDPE price assessments to provide more information for specific grades, uses
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Izham Ahmad, editor for the Asia-Pacific PE market elaborates on the factors which have driven the introduction of these new quotes and how suppliers and buyers will benefit from them.
ICIS analysts discuss the potential role that chemical recycling could play in market dynamics. Legislation and corporate commitments are driving the demand side of the plastic recycling market and the supply side falls short creating a fundamental imbalance. Chemical recycling can be seen as a complement to mechanical to support achieving industry targets and lessening the supply demand gap.
· The role of chemical recycling in the industry
· Chemical recycling processes, feedstocks, and products/ end-markets
· Global chemical recycling capacity
· US chemical recycling legislation and outlook
Listen to this podcast featuring Paula Leardini, senior analyst, plastic recycling, The Americas and Sunny Roe, senior analyst for sustainability
Senior Editor Caroline Murray discusses diverging upstream dynamics with Melissa Hurley Editor of the European monoethylene glycol (MEG) report and Miguel Rodriguez-Fernandez, Editor of the paraxylene (PX) report. Mixed xylene prices are skyrocketing higher than PX prices and concerns over negative margins mount. PX June contract talks are ongoing. By contrast, MEG supply remains lengthy and demand has been low, pressuring down spot prices. The June MEG contract price also remains unconfirmed.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS editors Jasmine Khoo and Josh Quah discuss recent developments and the outlook for the Asia nylon markets.
The nylon 6 value chain, with feedstock caprolactam as the main upstream, has been undergoing a severe demand loss, one that has resulted in negative margins for the industry. What the industry is wrestling with at the moment is whether the lockdowns are the cause or a symptom of something deeper.
- Trading has been very muted in H1, especially on the CFR China front
- Prices of nylon chips are relatively stable but this also belies a prolonged buy-sell gap in the market
- Inclusion of new PA66 assessments in the nylon report
ICIS editors Eashani Chavda, Samantha Wright and Amanda Hay are joined by ICIS analyst Mike Connolly to discuss the latest developments for the Europe and US base oils markets. Key topics include: supply shortages, shifting trade flows, refinery margins and additive shortages.
It is now possible to identify how rising inflation is hurting demand for chemicals, raising the prospect of a broad economic downturn later this year or in 2023, according to chemical distributors.
- First signs that inflation is hurting chemicals demand, global economy
- Rising costs have not yet hit consumer durable goods, expect more inflation
- Backlog of orders could drive a record year for chemicals
- Poor polymer spreads suggest China not yet in recovery
- Europe losing its competitive edge as feedstock, energy costs rise
- Sanctions against Russia are not very effective
- CEO round table organised by ICIS and Fecc (European Association of Chemical Distributors)
LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols chain faces some degree of demand uncertainty ahead related to key end user sectors. More supply disruptions have recently been announced concerning the 2-EHA market, with existing n-butanol (NBA) constraints still largely in place.
European editors Cameron Birch, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest developments for European oxo-alcohols and its derivatives in this ICIS podcast.
The European acrylonitrile (ACN) market has good supply and some softening demand, but costs remain high.
In this latest podcast, ICIS Deputy Managing Editor Jane Massingham (Europe) talks to Managing Editor Fertilizers, Julia Meehan and Senior Editor on olefins, Nel Weddle about the ammonia and propylene markets and what to expect in the months ahead.
- Visibility is hazy for both feedstocks
- Ample supply for ammonia and propylene
- Costs have eased from the peak but still very high
- Natural gas prices followed and storage levels closely watched
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s benzene prices have hit an all-time high on strong performance from the US amid the turnaround season, while styrene price gains have been lagging behind due to weak performance in the styrenics sector.
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editors Angeline Soh and Trixie Yap on Benzene and its key downstream sectors styrene monomer (SM) and styrenics.
· Asia Benzene prices up for five weeks to near eight-year high
· Availability tight during peak maintenance season, tightened by deep-sea demand
· Derivative margins suffer as end-use demand fails to catch up with feedstock cost surge
· Asia benzene-styrene spread weakens to record low
· SM demand limited on slow styrenics offtaking, squeezed productions margins in entire chain
· Wildcard demand from the West for SM or styrenics may emerge on costs
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Vietnam is southeast Asia’s biggest PE market in terms of consumption and is a major manufacturing hub for finished polymer products. To keep aligned with changing market dynamics, starting from the week ended 3 June, ICIS has introduced two new assessments to track import prices of HDPE injection and blow moulding grades into Vietnam.
- Vietnam PE market still the most competitive market in southeast Asia
- HDPE prices in Vietnam have opened wide gap vs rest of southeast Asia
- New HDPE price assessments to provide more information for specific grades, uses
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Izham Ahmad, editor for the Asia-Pacific PE market elaborates on the factors which have driven the introduction of these new quotes and how suppliers and buyers will benefit from them.
Expect a worsening food crisis as the war in Ukraine disrupts global fertilizer markets, while extreme weather events around the world hinder food production.
- Food crisis will intensify next season as crop production threatened
- Farmers delay fertilizer purchases in hope of lower prices
- Expect supply chain crunch if farmers all order at once
- Bad weather has hit crop production globally
- Lack of financing for farmers to purchase fertilizers
- Food price inflation will suck money from consumers’ pockets
- Likely to depress demand for non-essential goods, hitting chemicals demand
- Russia produces almost one fifth of global phosphate supply
- Tight supply has pushed phosphate prices to record levels
- Urea prices hit records as war began but declined as Russia found other markets
- But urea prices are still 75-80% higher year on year and may remain elevated
Demand for fertilizers has been hit after a year of record-breaking gains spurred by high natural gas prices and the conflict in Ukraine.
Farmers have reduced purchases as costs increase, while financing and credit lines are another major issue for buyers.
Ammonia and urea prices are declining but they are still significantly above last year, while nitrates, phosphates, sulphur, potash and sulphuric acid are more stable.
In this podcast, the ICIS fertilizer team talks about market trends from Vienna, where thousands of sector participants gathered for the annual International Fertilizer Association (IFA) conference.
The war in Ukraine is likely to keep gas prices at least double the long-term average while biofuels markets will feel pressure as governments cut mandatory levels of blending.
- Dutch, Danish gas supplies cut off today
- Europe gas prices remain rangebound, but elevated
- Storage levels are filling well ahead winter peak demand
- ICIS forecasts lower gas price for 2023
- But upside risks from winter demand, fuel-switching from high coal prices
- Gas prices will remain at least double the long-term average
- Prior to war Ukraine exported 4.5m tonnes agricultural products/month
- Equates to 12% of global supply of wheat, 15% corn, 50% sunflower oil
- Since war, corn prices up 28%, wheat 41%
- Chance of social unrest – Arab Spring partly triggered by high food prices
- Biofuel mandates being cut to reduce competition with food
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS editor Joson Ng discusses recent developments and the outlook for the Asian melamine market.
The Asian melamine market suffered from weak domestic demand in China in May and the reopening of Shanghai in June could help pave the way for some demand recovery.
· Weak domestic demand put pressure on export market
· Domestic demand could improve in June as Shanghai reopens
· Asian buyers to remain cautious but demand present
LONDON (ICIS)--The European phenol and acetone markets are paying close attention to demand levels in downstream bisphenol-A (BPA), epoxy resins, polycarbonate (PC) and methyl methacrylate (MMA) markets as sectors such as automotive remain slow, while demand caution is creeping into construction.
In this podcast, ICIS Europe Senior Editor Jane Gibson talks to Senior Editor Heidi Finch, Markets Reporter Mat Jolin-Beech and Data Reporter Miguel Rodriguez-Fernandez about downstream developments.
Senior Editor for Recycled Plastics, Emily Friedman, and Senior Analyst for Recycled Plastics, Paula Leardini, discuss the latest developments at the 2022 ReFocus Sustainability & Recycling Summit in Cincinnati, Ohio, including:
- Changing the perception of plastics, and how sustainability and plastics go hand-in-hand, "We love plastics, we hate plastic waste," said Patrick Krieger, Vice President of Sustainability at PLASTICS Industry Association
- How recycled plastics fit with other transformative topics, such as diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and emissions reductions
- A preview of their Day 2 discussion on the North American chemical recycling industry, including capacities, feedstocks, end markets, pricing drivers and future challenges and opportunities.
The European acrylonitrile (ACN) market has seen lower demand from different applications.
In this latest podcast, ICIS Deputy Managing Editor Jane Massingham (Europe) talks to Markets Reporter, Stephanie Wix about the downstream acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) market developments.
- ACN run rates in Europe lower due to softer demand
- Some respite sought from feedstock costs in June
- ABS imports more competitively priced but volumes still hampered by logistics
- Logistical pressures within Europe expected to continue to year-end
- ABS supply long, demand stable to soft, depending on application
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The polyethylene market in Asia has had a volatile few months since the start of the year, with import prices in southeast Asia alone gaining sharply while also still struggling with sluggish demand. Not all is doom and gloom though with some bright sparks expected in certain sectors in coming months.
- SE Asia LLDPE import prices gain 15% Jan-March
- China lockdowns worsen Asian demand outlook
- China 2022 PE demand growth forecast at 5.8% y/y
In this episode of the ICIS podcast, Senior Editor Izham Ahmad and ICIS Senior Analyst Shariene Goh examine the events of the last five months and what’s to be expected for the Asian PE market in coming months.
Europe’s propylene market is in disarray, with massive oversupply and faltering demand signalling trouble for the broader economy.
- Extreme oversupply in Europe propylene markets
- Sellers desperate to off load volumes
- Europe spot propylene trading at 15-30% discount to contract price
- Five Europe crackers in planned maintenance, unplanned outages elsewhere
- Weakness in downstream demand on top of unplanned outages
- High inventories in Europe PP
- China economy is frozen with 30% in lockdown
- Global economy may enter severe downturn
- Three horsemen of the apocalypse - war, pandemic, potential famine
Supply shortages push prices up in Europe's recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market amid a mixed demand picture.
- Supply shortages drive higher prices for R-PET in Europe in the short term
- Bale prices rise amid constrained availability, limited relief expected in summer
- Mixed picture for beverage demand with more travel versus rising inflation and lower disposable incomes
- Brand commitment to recycled content remains strong but content rates reassessed
Listen to ICIS analysts Helen McGeough, Carolina Perujo Holland and Egor Dementev discuss latest market conditions in Europe's recycled PET markets.
European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor Melissa Hurley discusses the poor demand situation and high inventory levels in Asia and Europe with Senior Editor, Judith Wang, Senior Analyst Ann Sun and Industry Analyst Cindy Qiu.
- Margin erosion and pressure continues; demand remains poor
- Shipping costs and high demurrage prices hinder Asia imports to Europe
- Demand in Asia could improve in July if government provides stimulus to support the economy
Additional reporting from Senior editor Judith Wang, Ann Sun and Cindy Qiu.
Senior Editor, Vicky Ellis, and Editor, Ben Lake, have gathered once again to discuss a distinctly different polymers market.
The frenzied nature of March and April having been replaced by a far more relaxed sentiment. At least, from the buy side.
There is also time to discuss the outlook for June and the major factors that could shake up the markets once again.
European availability of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) has greatly improved following the end of Shell's force majeure, though some tightness persists and planned turnarounds will continue to impact supply in Asia.
Europe MEK report editor Nick Cleeve speaks to Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan about market conditions in both regions and the continued limitations on import activity.
The availability of Asian IPA in Europe has increased during May compared with previous months, though weak demand and ample supply is limiting further interest in this tradeflow.
Asia-Pacific IPA report editor Julia Tan speaks to Europe editor Nick Cleeve about market conditions and the impact of upstream costs in both regions.
Ahead of the ICIS World Base Oils Conference 2022, editors Izham Ahmad and Matthew Chong discuss the latest developments in the Asian and Middle Eastern base oils markets. Key takeaways include:
- Volatile first half-year coming to an end
- Asia demand recovery hampered by China lockdowns
- Middle East faces similarly uncertain outlook on growth, auto sales
As lockdowns, the Common Prosperity policy and lacklustre export markets cut growth in China’s economy, the global chemical industry should prepare for negative demand growth in 2022.
- Lockdowns have frozen large sections of China’s economy
- Some restrictions may be in place until November
- May be no China demand rebound in 2022
- Demand for polymers in China may fall this year
- China could drag down global polymer demand growth
- China PE, PP margins have often been negative since last year
- Slowing global economy hurts China exports
- China may not remain driver of global economic growth
- Common Prosperity policy undermined by zero-Covid, economic problems
- Common Prosperity aims to redistribute wealth, tackle property bubble, environmental problems
The European oxo-alcohols chain has been hit by a spate of supply disruptions and feedstock limitations. However, disruptions are not yet visible supply due to soft demand in the n-butanol, acrylate esters, glycol ethers and butac markets.
European editors Cameron Birch, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest for European oxo-alcohols and its derivatives in this ICIS podcast.
Fresh from Vienna, senior editors Vicky Ellis, Caroline Murray and Matt Tudball give their first impressions of the ICIS European Polymers Conference, the first ICIS in-person conference in more than 2 years!
Topics ranged from the circular economy, Europe’s trade competitiveness, eye-watering market volatility all the way through to calls for polymers to be more like the paper market, or indeed, Elon Musk.
Speakers from major polymer and recycled polymers businesses as well as analysts, distributors and traders gathered for the conference, which brought together three long-standing events, PET Value Chain, World Polyolefins, and European Recycling which have captured international attraction for years.
A ban on Russian imports of oil and refined products in Europe would increase logistics costs and exclude refiners and integrated chemical producers from deeply discounted crude oil.
- Europe could source naphtha from other places, but at a cost
- Europe refineries may be forced to cut rates in the short term
- Europe refineries, chemicals would lose access to discounted Russian products
- Less competitive against Chinese/Indian refiners using cheap Russian product
- Urals crude discount to Brent now $35-40/bbl compared with $1-2/bbl pre-war
- EU ban would hurt Russia initially, less as it finds alternative markets
- Europe relies on Russia for around 50% naphtha, gasoil imports
- Crude oil prices up by 6% since invasion, Europe gasoil up by 35%
- Tight market means Russian gasoil ban would have dramatic impact
- Demand holding up well in Europe but China may be in recession
- Europe’s imports of Russian crude, condensate is back to pre-war levels
- Russian crude exports are higher than pre-war, driven by China, India
- India bought more than 350,000bbl/day Russian crude oil in April, 5X higher than January
- China buying 10% more Russian crude oil than in 2021
Global acrylonitrile (ACN) players talk of high costs, lower run rates and the demand picture is mixed
In this latest podcast, ICIS Deputy Managing Editor Jane Massingham (Europe) and senior editor Lucas Hall (US) and Li Li Chng (Asia) discuss the latest market developments:
· Demand is the key question
· Ammonia costs at forefront of the feedstock talks
· Chinese lockdowns ongoing, adding to uncertainty
· All regions feeling supply pressure and run rates are reduced
· Propylene feedstock lower, but ammonia still higher for May
· Inflationary impact on demand considered
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Asian olefin markets have seen weak demand weigh on discussions amid ongoing lockdowns in China. However, will these markets see some support in the road ahead from upstream naphtha?
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Editor for the Asia-Pacific Propylene report, Julia Tan speaks with Melanie Wee, Senior Editor for the Asia-Pacific Naphtha report, to discuss current market conditions in the naphtha and propylene markets, and whether crude oil volatility arising from the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to affect the Q2 outlooks for these markets.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s spot glycerine prices increased on the back of improving demand, with the arbitrage window to Europe expected to remain open in the near term.
- Restocking for June shipments ongoing
- Asia cargoes head Europe, where supply is tight
- Demand to rebound when China lockdowns are lifted
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with Helen Yan, editor for the Asia glycerine market, on recent regional developments.
Prices of urea, nitrates and ammonia have declined over the last few weeks after reaching historic highs.
Supply concerns remain because of sanctions on key exporter Russia, but a downward correction comes, as fertilizer affordability is a big issue for several importing hubs.
While prices are still more than double of last year, it is unlikely they will go back to the record levels of mid-March any time soon.
In this podcast, ICIS Fertilizer Managing Editor Julia Meehan speaks to Deepika Thapliyal on what to expect for the market.
European chemical companies may be forced to cut gas use for short periods this winter if demand is very high and supply crimped, though steps are being taken to avoid this scenario.
- Winter industrial gas rationing for short periods possible in high demand, restricted supply scenario
- Demand could also be controlled if domestic consumers lower heat by 1 degree Celsius
- Greater supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe will alleviate shortages
- EU has mandated 80% storage levels by November 2022
- Europe better prepared than it was in winter 2021
- New floating LNG terminals will increase processing capacity
- Gas investors want facilities to handle hydrogen during energy transition
- Global overcapacity in polyethylene (PE) likely
- Recession risks rise, chemical industry must be prepared
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this episode of the podcast, information manager Yvonne Shi discusses with senior reporter Nurluqman Suratman on the impact of lockdowns in China on domestic petrochemical trades.
- Strict measures in place since February weigh on domestic demand
- China’s overall imports in March edged down by 0.1% year on year
- The Chinese yuan has also been feeling the downward pressure
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—While ethyl acetate (etac) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) have similar applications, the Asian markets have seen significantly diverging trends in recent months.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Editor for the Asia-Pacific MEK report, Julia Tan speaks with Melanie Wee, Senior Editor for the Asia-Pacific etac report, to discuss April’s market conditions and the Q2 outlook for these two solvent markets.
Logistics issues in the US are blocking exports of polyethylene (PE), creating new opportunities for other exporters to Europe.
- US shortage of trucks, railcars, warehouse space prevents polyethylene (PE) reaching ports for export
- Operating rates could be cut unless logistics problems are resolved
- US PE producers will struggle to achieve 90% operating rates needed to repay investments
- High costs and prices in Europe create big export opportunity for other regions
- Net PE imports to Europe will soar if Russian naphtha cannot be replaced
- Demand from discretionary consumer spending in Europe could fall
- PE demand likely to stay positive in Europe
- Port of Antwerp container traffic has fallen
- Bulk liquid chemicals rise as imports replace Russian material
- China economy struggling as lockdowns continue
The recent force majeure (FM) from INEOS Oxide on oxo-alcohols is already tightening European spot supply of n-butanol (NBA) and isobutanol (IBA). Acrylate Esters sources expect the effects of the INEOS FM will filter through to this market but little impact has been seen so far. Players on both sides of the Glycol ethers spot market are waiting and watching how much disruption will be in the market in the coming weeks. The butyl acetate market has been balanced to tight in April but quiet demand has been limiting pressure on available volumes.
European editors Cameron Birch, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest for European oxo-alcohols and its derivatives in this ICIS podcast.
For Europe’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets, April has been a month for processing and taking stock - quite literally in many cases – as well as judging Russia-Ukraine developments & how sky high prices impacted supply-demand.
This week ICIS' Europe PE & PP editors Ben Lake and Vicky Ellis are joined by ethylene and propylene editor Nel Weddle to look at what happened in April and what May has in store for monomers and polymers.
European methanol demand remains healthy with downstream applications performing well, and in some instances better than anticipated for Q2. Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) demand is strong ahead of the peak summer driving season leading to high expectations for Q3 2022. ICIS editors Eashani Chavda and Nazif Nazmul discuss current market dynamics and what's next for MTBE.
European plasticizers editor Nicole Simpson, Asia-Pacific editor Li Peng Seng and US editor Larry Terry look at the plasticizers outlook for Q2 with a focus on trade flows.
There continues to be intense uncertainty globally in the plasticizers market as all regions have been rocked by record feedstock costs and supply chain disruptions.
Weak consumption in the East Asian market has led to several producers reducing run rates and absent import interest. The demand outlook for East Asia is gloomy for Q2 amid COVID-19 lockdowns in China and a general economic slowdown in the region.
In the US, security of supply has emerged as a key issue for Q2 partly due to very limited supply from China. US sources are increasingly turning to DOTP from Taiwan and Turkey.
In Europe, import interest has not picked up significantly despite production costs in the region skyrocketing.
Some chemical markets, especially in Europe, are shifting from quarterly to monthly contracts, driven by upstream volatility. Could this signal the demise of the quarterly contract?
- For April Europe nylon, engineering plastics, polycarbonate (PC), butanediol (BDO) discuss going monthly
- May revert to quarterly if upstream stabilises
- Huge uptick in Europe feedstock prices in 2022, particularly styrene, propylene, ethylene
- Many derivatives had remained quarterly as they sell into automotive, white goods
- Downstream customers insist on six-month or annual contracts
- Methanol chain has largely remained on quarterly contracts
- Quarterly contracts offer stability
- Europe benzene chain moved to monthly contracts in 2004
- Olefins moved to monthly contracts in 2009
- In Europe, US 80% of business is contract, 20% spot; Asia almost all spot
- ICIS adds new assessments to its reports to reflect new ways of trading
- Recycling and circular value chains could drive local pricing of chemicals
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with Clive Ong, editor for the ICIS LAB and LAS report, on recent developments in the regional market.
Ongoing volatility in crude and upstream markets from the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as prevailing lockdowns in China to combat spread of COVID-19 infections exerted downward pressure on demand, although the market faced an inflationary bias from rising costs.
- Producer margins squeeze by rising costs
- Buyers hesitant to commit amid volatile crude oil and upstream markets
- China demand weak on lockdowns while inventory elevated
Downstream customers in Europe are seeking new supplies of chemicals from Asia as they avoid high prices and Russian material, but the global logistics crisis may persist for the rest of the year.
- European buyers seek more material from Asia
- High prices, costs for European petrochemicals
- Big opportunities for exporters of many petrochemicals, polymers
- Europe needs to replace Russian naphtha which supplies 50% of its needs
- Global logistics crisis set to continue for most of the year
- China lockdowns slow economy, congest chemical logistics
- Chance of China recession in first half
- Europe’s economy is slowing, chemicals demand may be impacted
Global acrylonitrile (ACN) players continue to eye surging production costs, particularly in Europe, as concerns over forward demand rise against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Asia remains the low-cost region globally, weighing on export margins from the US, a net exporter in the global market.
In this podcast, ICIS senior editors Lucas Hall (US), Jane Massingham (Europe) and Li Li Chng (Asia) discuss the latest market developments:
- Europe remains the high-priced region
- Surging production costs weigh on forward sentiment in Europe
- Sanctions closely being watched
- Asia remains the low-cost region
- Asia cutting rates because of coronavirus lockdowns, China outbound logistics a concern
- US export margins remain negative, prompting lower operating rates
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—European demand for Asian isopropanol (IPA) has increased in recent weeks as high natural gas prices continue to keep European markets strong, resulting in the opening of the Asia-Europe arbitrage window, particularly amid tepid demand in Asia due to ongoing lockdowns in China.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Editor for the Asia-Pacific IPA report, Julia Tan speaks with Nick Cleeve, Markets Editor for the European IPA report, to discuss current market conditions, and when this arbitrage window is likely to close.
The methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is globally tight, with pricing in Asia reaching a record high last seen in 2011 and pricing in Europe at the highest level since ICIS began assessing prices in Euros in 1999.
Europe MEK report editor Nick Cleeve discusses market conditions and the continued restrictions on shipments of material with Asia-Pacific editor Julia Tan.
The war in Ukraine has pushed up polyethylene (PE) production costs in Europe, leading potentially to production cuts and new export opportunities for Middle East and US producers.
- Europe PE producers suffer soaring feedstock, energy costs
- Prospect of production cuts despite record high PE prices
- US and Middle East may gain new export opportunities to Europe
- Soaring PE prices in Europe could dent demand
- Gazprom honours long-term gas contracts
- Russian gas may be interrupted, but not completely cut
- Any gas rationing likely to be for short periods
- Europe gas prices have declined as fears of gas interruptions abate
- Payment deadline for April gas is not until 20 May
- Russia has gone from net PE importer to 1m tonne/year exporter
- Russia supplied half of Europe’s naphtha in 2021
- ICIS expects Russian PE projects to be delayed or cancelled
- China PE rates are lower, recession a possibility
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with Matthew Chong, editor for the ICIS Asia Base Oils market on the recent developments in the regional market.
The recent spike in crude and gasoil prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war and lockdowns in China to curb the rapid spread of Covid-19 infections has had a significant impact on the base oils industry.
- Asia Group I spot supply limited; Group II supply to tighten further
- Arbitrage window from Asia to Europe may open
- China demand to be curbed in near-term on lockdowns
- Overall H2 2022 demand to pick up as economies re-open
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—In this podcast, ICIS editors Jasmine Khoo and Arianne Perez discuss about recent market developments and outlook on Asia Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate (R-PET) markets.
· Post-consumer bottle (PCB) bale feedstock availability remains in shortage across Asia
· Brisk capacity expansions by recyclers continue, targeting converters in other regions including Europe and the US
· Downstream demand stays healthy in line with sustainability commitments of various brands
Russia’s war against Ukraine will speed the creation of two trading blocs, excluding western chemical companies from China and other important markets.
- Ukraine war adds momentum to previous US-China trade war split
- Russia, China, India, most of Africa will form one trading zone
- As new trade blocs emerge, West will be cut off from China demand
- China completely dominates chemicals demand
- China sucks in more than 50% of global net polyethylene (PE) imports
- More local-for-local manufacturing, recycling will emerge
- No need for globalisation in a low growth world
- Chemical companies switch to become service-providers
- European chemical companies face higher costs as they switch off Russian supplies
European Melamine editor Melissa Hurley discusses the US supply situation, European production cost pressure from high gas prices and the future demand situation in Asia with Senior Editor Manager Joson Ng in Asia and US editor Larry Terry.
- European Q2 talks to start in earnest next week
- US volume restrictions still in effect
- Chinese producers face cost pressures; domestic demand hit by lockdowns
Additional reporting from Senior Editor Manager Joson Ng and Senior Editor Larry Terry.
SINGAPORE (ICIS) -- In this podcast, ICIS editors Jasmine Khoo and Hazel Goh discuss recent developments and outlook concerns for the Asia and Middle East polyethylene (PE) pipe grade markets.
- PE pipe grade has thin price spreads to ethylene and other PE grades buoying Middle East and Asian offers
- Some SE Asia downstream converters unable to digest impact of recent upstream crude increases
- China logistics and demand affected by COVID-19 spread
Chemicals players are waking up to a new era for the global economy, where supportive monetary policy and rock-bottom interest rates give way to a lengthy period of high inflation, sped by the Russia-Ukraine war.
In this Think Tank podcast, Tom Brown interviews ICIS senior consultant for Asia John Richardson, and New Normal Consulting chairman Paul Hodges.
The invasion of Ukraine means that naphtha buyers in Europe will have to pay premiums as they seek alternatives to Russian supplies.
- In 2021 Russia supplied 44% of Europe’s naphtha imports, 20% of consumption
- Europe naphtha buyers face paying premiums for alternative supplies
- European refiners will have to invest to reduce reliance on Russian crude
- New zero agenda should cut demand for oil, so will make Russian phase out easier
- Pre-Ukraine conflict Russia exported 4.5-5m bbl/day globally, 2.5m bbl/day to Europe
- Russian oil exports cut by 1.6m bbl/day since Ukraine
- Price fell after EU declined to ban Russian oil imports
- China Covid lockdowns push it down further
- New ICIS forecast for $110/bbl in second quarter
- Forecast third quarter 10% increase
- Lower demand will see fourth quarter decline
- China’s economy faces multiple challenges
- Deep operating rate cuts in China polypropylene (PP)
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- In this podcast, ICIS editors Jasmine Khoo and Trixie Yap discuss recent developments and the outlook for the Asian styrene (SM) and styrenics markets.
- China’s exports for styrene, polystyrene to continue into May amid weaker-than-expected domestic performance
- New start-ups for SM and polystyrene still expected in April-May
- Styrene demand from northeast Asia likely to absorb majority of China-origin parcels
LONDON (ICIS)--European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor Melissa Hurley discusses the worsening margin situation and climbing production costs in Asia and Europe with Senior Editor, Judith Wang.
- Major producers in Asia slash production cuts
- European margins put operating rates under extensive pressure
- Cautiousness amid upstream volatility
Additional reporting from Senior editor Judith Wang.
Urea prices are trading at the highest ever levels seen since ICIS started tracking the crop nutrient in 1995. There is concern of a global shortage as the West ramps up sanctions and Russia retaliates with restrictions of its own, including on grain exports.
Russia is the world's largest natural gas producer and supplies 40% of Europe's needs. It is also the world’s largest urea exporter with a 14% market share.
In this podcast, global urea editors Mark Milam and Deepika Thapliyal discuss what is happening with urea prices, and what the markets are expecting in months to come.
European and African PE/PP editors Vicky Ellis, Linda Naylor and Ben Lake join with Deputy Gas Editor, Chris Renne to discuss a tumultuous week in Europe.
Spiking gas prices are already feeding through to both sentiment and contract discussions on the polymer market.
Combined with rising production costs and an uncertain outlook on transport, this is an unprecedented time for the petchem market, following on from the also unprecedented previous two years.
As prices up and down the value chain reach new heights, the group discuss how we got here, what the market is doing right now and outlook for the rest of the month and beyond.
Very high logistics costs and limited vessel space have restricted Asian exports of many products to Europe since late 2020, including isopropanol (IPA) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK).
Widening price gaps between the two regions are reviving interest in this tradeflow for IPA, though tightness and upstream volatility continue to impact MEK.
Asia IPA and MEK report editor Julia Tan and Europe editor Nick Cleeve discuss market conditions, current tradeflows and expectations for the second quarter.
In this podcast, ICIS recycled plastic senior editor, Emily Friedman, and recycled plastic senior analyst, Paula Leardini, give a live update from the 2022 Plastics Recycling Conference and Expo.
The US recycled plastic market is in a period of major growth, experiencing several transitional challenges due to increased demand for resin, primarily to be used for food and beverage packaging, but under tight supply of recycled plastic feedstock.
- Increased demand for post-consumer recycled (PCR) content from legislation and brand owners
- Tight supply on systemically short municipal and commercial collection
- Record high prices for recycled resin seen in 2021 and early 2022
Please attend Emily and Paula's Session, "How to Square Supply and Demand" on Wednesday, 09 March at 9:00am EST https://www.plasticsrecycling.com/2022-square-supply-demand If you are interested in learning more about the ICIS Mechanical Recycling Supply Tracker, or the ICIS US recycled polyethtylene (R-PE) market report prototype, contact them at paula.leardini@icis.comm or Emily.friedman@icis.com. respectively.
The spike in oil prices caused by the Ukraine conflict will hit chemical margins as producers will be unable to pass on higher costs thanks to faltering demand and a slowing global economy.
- World will suffer oil price shock
- Rocketing oil prices suck money out of consumers’ pockets, damage sentiment
- Chemical prices are rising sharply, according to the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index
- Expect more negative production margins
- World may already be in recession
- High oil price will drive green economy
- Europe may suffer feedstock shortages if Russian naphtha supplies crimped
- Russia supplies 50% of European naphtha
- China economy is in turmoil
- Developing economies may stop growing thanks to oil price shock, high food prices
- Gas flows to Europe from Russia, Ukraine are normal
- Western Europe can source alternative gas supplies
- If Russian gas supplies stop, Eastern Europe may have to cut industrial usage
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS editors Jasmine Khoo and Helen Lee discuss recent developments and the outlook for the Asian acetic acid market.
Asia’s acetic acid market lost between 26% to almost 30% in the first two months of 2022 amid pressure from new capacity in China and a slower-than-anticipated post Lunar New year demand recovery.
· New acetic acid plant in China started up earlier than projected
· Supply, feedstock factors to drive outlook:
· Scheduled plant turnarounds in China; Strong crude exerts upward pressure on feedstock methanol
Improved availability and access to cheaper Asian imports are putting pressure on European and US epoxy resin prices, which remain very high compared with historical levels.
However, feedstock costs and volatility linked to the conflict in Ukraine are offering some resistance to softer pricing.
European epoxy resins editor Heidi Finch and US editor Tarun Raizada discuss current conditions and future expectations for these markets.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—The global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets are seeing upward cost pressure for feedstocks propylene and ammonia in line with firmer crude and natural gas prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In this podcast, ICIS senior editors Li Li Chng (Asia), Jane Massingham (Europe), and Lucas Hall (US) discuss the latest market developments:
· Europe remains the high priced region
· Sanctions to be watched
· Uncertainty of Russian supply ahead
· Asian suppliers received increase enquiries from Europe
· Asia production cuts on-going
· US production, demand healthy
LONDON (ICIS) Global chemicals markets have been dominated by the Russian invasion Ukraine as the conflict has caused costs to take an immediate upswing.
- TotalEnergies response to the invasion
- The impact on upstream prices across the world
- Pressure on energy trade flows
- Downstream demand could collapse in response to rising costs
- Bottlenecks could shift trading to more localised level as supply routes disrupted
- UN Environment Assembly plastics pact, what this means for sustainability and the industry
In this Think Tank podcast, Senior Reporter Morgan Condon interviews ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.
The phosphoric acid contract price for Q1 deliveries to India has been settled at an increase following weeks of negotiations. At the same time, raw material prices and especially ammonia are on the rise too following limited supply due to unscheduled shutdowns, weather events and high natural gas prices.
Senior phosphates editor Sylvia Traganida talks to senior ammonia editor Richard Ewing about the latest developments in the market.
LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets have been stable-to-soft in recent weeks due to stable supply and healthy, but weaker than initially forecast, demand.
However, there are concerns from market players about the impact the Ukraine/Russia conflict will have on feedstock and energy costs.
European editors Eashani Chavda, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest for European oxo-alcohols and its derivatives in this ICIS podcast.
LONDON (ICIS)--ICIS editors Eashani Chavda, Keven Zhang and Anna Matherne discuss the latest developments in the global methanol market including: European imports from Russia; post-Lunar New Year activity; and a recent power outage in Trinidad.
With the Ukraine conflict pushing oil prices towards $100/bbl and gas prices becoming increasing volatile, chemical companies may suffer reduced profit margins as higher costs may not translate into higher selling prices as downstream demand declines.
- Consumer confidence dented by high oil, energy prices and rising inflation, interest rates
- Signs of weaker downstream demand
- Chemical companies will struggle to pass on higher costs, damaging margins
- Closure of Druzhba pipeline would cut up to 11% of Europe ethylene, 12% propylene capacity
- Asia demand growth falling, led by slowing China
- Polyethylene margins in Asia already negative
- Feedstock cost advantage will become less important for chemical producers
- Battery swapping will boost confidence in electric vehicles
With the Ukraine conflict pushing oil prices towards $100/bbl and gas prices becoming increasing volatile, chemical companies may suffer reduced profit margins as higher costs may not translate into higher selling prices thanks to falling downstream demand.
- Consumer confidence dented by high oil, energy prices and rising inflation, interest rates
- Signs of downstream demand weakening
- Chemical companies will struggle to pass on higher costs, damaging margins
- Closure of Druzhba pipeline would cut up to 11% of Europe ethylene, 12% propylene capacity
- Asia demand growth falling, led by slowing China
- Polyethylene margins in Asia already negative
- Feedstock cost advantage will become less important for chemical producers
- Battery swapping will boost confidence in electric vehicles
The old link between gross domestic product (GDP) and demand growth for chemicals such as polyethylene (PE) has broken, so chemical companies need to find new ways of making forecasts.
- Chemicals, PE demand no longer follows GDP
- Chemical companies need new models to forecast chemicals, PE growth
- More affected by demographics, government stimulus policies
- Chemical companies need to switch to providing services and solutions
- China accounts for 30% of global PE demand
- China’s economy is slowing
- Chemical markets are becoming more regionalised
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS editors Jasmine Khoo and Angeline Soh discuss about the uptrend for Asia benzene prices for the past two months.
Despite buyers’ caution of a possible production cut from margin erosion, sellers were hopeful of a continued uptrend in Q1 from:
- Supply cuts from China, Japan, South Korea, southeast Asia
- Stronger demand, with new derivative start-ups
- Feedstock crude support
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—The Asian and Middle Eastern polyether polyols markets observed significant price declines in late 2021, with demand poised to strengthen going forward into March amid restocking activities and recent upstream price gains.
· Upstream propylene oxide (PO) and polyols yuan prices plunged in late 2021
· Competitively-priced Chinese origin cargoes offered to regional markets
· Mideast polyols demand stayed subdued in Dec 2021 ahead of end-of-year
· Recovery in PO yuan prices to potentially reflect on H2 Feb, H1 Mar Mideast offers
In this podcast, editors Jasmine Khoo and Damini Dabholkar discuss recent developments and the outlook for the Asian and the Middle Eastern polyether polyols markets.
The logistics disruption which has plagued chemical supply chains could ease as tightening monetary policy reduces consumer demand in the next 6-12 months.
- Huge expansion of money supply in US is underlying cause of logistics disruption
- US consumer demand for finished goods rocketed
- Tidal wave of goods from China to US
- Demand could fall off a cliff in 6-12 months as monetary policy is tightened
- Permanent increase in internet shopping, goods sourced mainly from Asia
- New container ships will launch towards end 2022, 2023
- Container rates, road transport costs will remain elevated
- Deflation likely as demand patterns normalise, logistics disruption eases
- Europe polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain remains pressured by logistics bottlenecks
- Asia margins, prices low as new capacity cannot be exported to Europe, Americas
- Fresh Asia capacity could shift global trade flows
- Phenol demand to outstrip acetone
- Close eye kept on US winter storm season
- Turnarounds tighten Europe and Asia markets
- Supply chain and inflation ongoing challenges
ICIS editors Jane Gibson, Tarun Raizada and Tess Tseng discuss global phenol and acetone market trends for H1 2022.
Any major escalation of the conflict in Ukraine threatens to further disrupt supply in oil, gas and chemical markets, pushing prices beyond their current elevated levels.
- Gas storage low in Europe, winter demand 30% higher than rest of year
- Record shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe so far in 2022
- LNG could ease Europe shortages if Russia supplies cut
- Russia supplies 20% of global seaborne ammonia market
- Disrupted supply could push up fertilizer and food prices
- Russian oil feeds around a quarter of Europe demand
- Europe oil refineries may have to cut operating rates if Russia supply stops
- Oil prices could spike to triple digits in wider conflict
- Higher Europe gas prices would mean more chemicals energy surcharges
- Soaring oil prices dent chemical producer margins
- Elevated oil prices dent consumer confidence and demand
Listen to this special Think Tank podcast featuring ICIS market experts Aura Sabadus, Richard Ewing, Richard Price and Deepika Thapliyal.
LONDON (ICIS)--The European oxo-alcohols markets hold steady with improved supply following the end to a number of force majeures.
Downstream, glycol ethers and butyl acetate (butac) follow suit with stable market conditions whilst the acrylate esters market faced downward pressure on some grades this week.
European editors Eashani Chavda, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest for European oxo-alcohols and its derivatives in this ICIS podcast.
Chemical margins fell into negative territory for many products late in 2021, signalling a tough start to 2022, though prices are now rising.
- Stock market bubble may be about to burst
- Demand for chemicals would fall as investors lose money
- Tighter monetary policy could lead to more corporate bankruptcies
- Negative fourth quarter chemical margins point to tougher 2022
- Rising chemical prices in January show higher costs can be pushed through
- Global binding treaty on plastic waste is needed
- Chemical companies must bear costs of collection, recycling
As sanctions placed on Belarusian muriate of potash (MOP) exports begin to bite, many questions are unanswered for supply stability in the year ahead. Sylvia Traganida speaks to Senior Markets Editor for Potash and Sulphuric Acid, Andy Hemphill, about this week’s market-moving news.
The global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets have seen spot prices soften amid improving supply, but logistics and costs remain a key concern.
In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editors Jane Massingham (Europe), Li Li Chng (Asia) and Lucas Hall (US) discuss the latest developments in the market and what lies ahead.
China’s growth in spending on chemicals research and innovation (R&I) has far outpaced Europe and the US, leaving chemical companies in the west facing a formidable challenge in the race to develop low carbon technologies.
- China R&I spend tripled from $4.3bn to $14bn 2010-2020
- Europe, US spend rose modestly over same period
- Europe, US chemicals may need to boost R&I spending to compete on low carbon technology
- China is likely to boost R&I spending further under Common Prosperity philosophy
- China’s property boom turbo-charged its economy
- Pressure to decarbonise, cut plastic waste in China
- China and global polypropylene (PP) markets may suffer as demand growth slows
- PP projects may have to be cancelled around the world
Nicole Simpson, the European plasticizers editor, is joined by Li Peng Seng, the US plasticizers editor, and Antoinette Smith, the Asia Pacific Editor to discusses the global plasticizers outlook for 2022 with a focus on trade flows.
Click here to listen in a new window.
Congested global supply chains are masking a downturn in demand for chemicals driven by China’s slowing economy, high energy prices plus falling consumer confidence and spending.
- Supply chains full of inventory as purchasing managers have over-ordered
- Inventory will be released as supply chain pressures ease
- Big ramp up in chemicals capacity in China
- Slowing China poses major risk to global chemicals demand
- China could export surpluses globally, deflating prices
- Oversupply, poor demand risk for 2022
- Consumers may switch to spending on services, dampening industrial demand
- Chemical prices fell dramatically in December, suggesting low demand
- High energy prices hurt consumer spending, sentiment
Petrochemical producers, especially in Europe, may see more gas price volatility in winter 2022 as storage levels are much lower than usual.
- Unprecedented volatility in Europe gas prices
- Prices have now collapsed but still above long-term average
- Warmer winter weather reducing demand
- Flows from Russia, temperature impact prices
- Europe gas storage only 50% full, usually around 70%
- Any cold spell could send prices rocketing
- More liquified natural gas (LNG) cargoes heading to Europe
- Industrial demand is stable
- Growth of electric vehicles will drive refinery closures, lack of naphtha
- Deflation risk in 2022
- Supply chains may normalise, with rising inventories
- Slowing China biggest risk to global deflation
The European oxo-alcohols chain is largely quiet due to seasonal low demand, though force majeures from Arkema and INEOS have been declared during December.
Butyl acetate (butac) report editor Nick Cleeve discusses the impact these limitations have had with oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson and acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech.
The UAN market in 2021 had it all: from high nitrogen and natural gas prices to tight supply and countervailing duties in the US, it has been a bumpy year!
Senior UAN editors Sylvia Traganida and Mark Milam discuss the developments that have affected the market this year and reveal what to expect in 2022.
The global economy may reverse from price inflation to deflation next year as supply chains unblock amid tepid underlying demand.
- Risk of switch from inflation to deflation
- Inventories rising as supply chains unblock
- Global chemical prices may equalise, but lower, as supply chains open up
- China demand falling as state tackles bloated property market
- Business leaders fear Omicron will impact 2022 growth
- American Chemistry Council upbeat, points to positive data
- US chemical rail car loadings reach record high, but could be supply-driven
- Evergrande default marks China’s move away from “subprime on steroids”
- Demographics, aging population will drive more service-based economy
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)’s polypropylene (PP) market has had a volatile run in 2021, with vast contrasts and swings in PP prices rendering buyers unclear on what 2022 is set to bring.
- Polar storm in the US draws Middle Eastern PP volumes away from Asia
- Asia leads PP capacity expansions, Chinese producers eye exports
- Food, hygiene packaging to drive resin demand for consumption within GCC, exports
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editor Veena Pathare about recent developments in the GCC PP market.
China may become self-sufficient in polypropylene (PP) from 2022, raising the prospect of a scramble for market share globally and possible price war.
- China will become self-sufficient in PP from 2022
- China PP demand will grow by 3% in 2022, capacity by 11%
- For 2020 China had net PP imports of 6.1m tonnes
- As China becomes exporter, expect battle for market share, possible price war
- International Energy Agency report shows Europe, China driving surge in renewable power
- Renewables will form 95% of new electricity additions from now until 2026
- By 2026 renewables will equal fossil fuel for power generation
- Transition from world scale to local chemical production will be a huge challenge
The Omnicron coronavirus variant may further disrupt supply chains while impacting demand for chemical markets around the world.
- Omnicron variant risks disruption to supply chains, demand
- Chemical industry is a 6-9 month leading indicator of wider economy
- Risk of deflation, recession next year as consumers have less spending power
- Rich countries must pay for medical infrastructure, vaccines for emerging economies
- High price differentials in polyethylene, polypropylene between West and China, southeast Asia
European oxo-alcohols availability has improved in Q4 following the lifting of force majeures by BASF and OQ. ICIS Editors Eashani Chavda, Nicole Simpson, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech discuss the latest for the oxo-alcohols chain incuding; glycol ethers, butyl acetate (butac) and acrylate esters.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Overall production of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) across Asia continues to be subdued by persistent tightness of post-consumer bottle (PCB) bale feedstock inventory, while downstream demand is on a seasonal rebound.
· Availability and collection of waste was limited by the COVID-19 resurgence in mid-year
· Demand for fibre, film and bottle grades rebounded amid easing of COVID-19 restrictions
· Ability to import bale feedstock hampered by high shipping costs
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editor Arianne Perez about recent developments in Asia R-PET market.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- China has pledged to achieve peak carbon emission by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, and the dual control policy is part of this movement towards an environmentally-friendly future. However, China’s dual control policy has had a significant impact on the Asian petrochemical markets, exacerbating pre-existing supply chain inefficiencies and injecting volatility into both the futures and spot markets.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Editor Julia Tan speaks with Jimmy Zhang, ICIS analyst to delve into the policy; looking at what it is, how it has broadly affected the markets, and how long its effects can be expected to last.
The global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets are calmer than in recent months, but there are many factors still to take into account.
In this podcast, ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham (Europe), Lucas Hall (US) and Li Li Chng (Asia) discuss the latest developments in the market and what can be expected in the short-term.
- Feedstock costs are more concerning for Europe and the US
- Demand globally could see a year-end dip
- Q1 currently looks healthy
- Supply improved in all regions
- Dual control impact less in November than October
Obtaining vast amounts of renewable energy, plus a more supportive regulatory environment, are most important for Europe’s petrochemical industry on its path to low carbon production.
Hear Hartwig Michels, president of the European Petrochemical Association and head of BASF’s global petrochemical operations, in conversation with Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting and Nigel Davis, ICIS Insight editor.
- Availability of green electricity is the key challenge for low carbon chemical production
- Decline in refinery petrochemical feedstocks will push recycling
- Out of 30m tonnes/year of plastic waste in Europe, 70% is not recycled
- Chemical industry must accelerate moves to net zero
- Sustainability will have a cost for industry and society
- Supply chain, logistics crisis could last at least six months
- Container logistics still disrupted, prices rising again
- Supply shortages, higher prices impact customers
- Record-breaking gas, electricity prices push up production costs
- Slowing demand may alleviate supply chain woes
- Short-term and long-term approaches required to strengthen supply chains
LONDON (ICIS)--European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor Melissa Hurley discusses the global supply outlook with Judith Wang, Antoinette Smith and Antulio Borneo.
- New Asia supply weighs on discussions
- Definitive ADD measures against US and Saudi Arabia imports finalised
- MEG and DEG supply gradually recovering from persistent shortages
- Uncertain US outlook
Additional reporting from Senior Editor Judith Wang, Antoinette Smith. US outlook from CDI Vice President - North America PET/Polyester Chain, Antulio Borneo
Across the global urea and ammonia markets, there is no end in sight for a downward price correction since market fundamentals look set to remain firmly in place moving into 2022. Stocks are low, demand is high and production costs are forcing unwelcome curtailments across the world.
Natural gas remains the key driver for the fertilizer sector, but there are plenty of other factors impacting urea and ammonia. Tune into our industry experts Julia Meehan, Deepika Thapliyal and Richard Ewing to get an up-to-the-minute overview of these key fast-moving global fertilizers.
Key economic indicators point to a global slowdown, with margins for many chemicals either contracting or expected to contract.
In the ICIS Think Tank podcast, chief news correspondent Tom Brown talks to insight editor Nigel Davis, senior consultant John Richardson, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting, about Shell's dramatic move, the clean energy transition, supply and demand shifts in the global polyethylene market, and a potential correction to global inflation in the near future.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) prices did not climb to earlier highs during the traditional peak in October and November, reflecting comparatively softer demand.
- Plateau from end-use home-based electronic products since COVID-19 just surfaced
- Import reliance down with ample local production
- Downtrend may manifest when upstream supply raises
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editor Angeline Soh about recent developments in the Asian ABS market.
A balanced acrylonitrile (ACN) market in Europe continues to see a healthy pull on demand from the acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) sector.
Listen in as ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham and Stephanie Wix talk about the latest developments and short-term expectations
- ACN balanced in Europe but good demand and high costs
- ABS supply remains short on lack of imports and ongoing force majeure
- Demand to remain strong despite big drops in automotive
- Costs add pressure to ABS market
- Despite a traditional softer December, demand into 2022 forecast to be good
Record-breaking prices for some European chemicals show that pandemic-related market and supply chain trends are still disrupting chemical markets.
- New record prices for Europe epoxy resins, titanium dioxide (Ti02) contracts, spot polyethylene terephthalate (PET), butanediol (BDO) and acetone methyl methacrylate (MMA)
- Driven by production issues, lack of Asian imports, shipping costs, energy prices, feedstock costs, strong demand
- Stocks still low along some supply chains, signs of panic buying
- strong construction outweighs weak automotive demand
- Danger that high prices could destroy demand
- Asia polyolefins suffering low prices, negative margins
- Supply chain disruption means more regionalisation of markets
- Global carbon price needed to force low carbon shift
SINGAPORE (ICIS) – Asia’s import prices for ethylene propylene diene-monomer (EPDM) have held firm at multi-year high levels for more than three months, supported by recovery of downstream production post-second wave of pandemic, and also sustained limitations in regional supplies.
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with Ai Teng, editor for the ICIS Asia EPDM report, to hear more about the drivers for the current EPDM market, and also what may be in store for the near term.
Phosphates pricing sentiment remains bullish, amid record high sulphur and phosphoric acid prices. The announcement of fertilizer export restrictions from Russia is seen tightening global phosphates availability.
ICIS Senior Editors Sylvia Traganida and Erica Sesay discuss the latest developments in the phosphates and sulphur markets.
Global chemical industry leaders must act now to plan for rapid transformation as the COP26 climate change conference shows the size of the challenges facing the world.
- Chemical industry needs 2030 targets from politicians
- Management boards must plan today for low carbon future
- Existing plants can be upgraded to use renewable electricity or hydrogen
- Infrastructure must be developed now for carbon, capture & storage, low carbon power
- Investments must be scaled up to $500m minimum
- Financial investors now favour low carbon companies
- Chemicals can follow automotive in rapid transformation
- Time for chemicals to ‘wake up and smell the coffee’
LONDON (ICIS)--Availability in the European oxo-alcohols spot market remains under some pressure with local producer OQ Chemicals in force majeure. Supply of derivatives butyl acrylate (butac) and some acrylate esters have also tightened. Glycol ethers players are keeping a close eye on rising natural gas costs.
A global recession is on the horizon as China’s property bubble bursts, triggering a collapse in industrial and chemicals demand there and around the world.
- Markets have reached tipping point where further price rises will not be accepted
- Supply chain chaos is masking poor real underlying demand
- Demand is relatively flat in Europe, US. China growth will slow dramatically
- Overcapacity may cause price war for market share
- Recession or downturn may be approaching
- China property bubble is about to burst
- Global manufacturing, including chemicals, relies on China demand
The chemical industry needs to overcome a business as usual strategy and grasp new production and recycling technologies to meet the challenge of a low carbon future.
- Massive investment in low carbon energy required to meet net zero targets
- China and EU can lead the way, spurring activity in the rest of the world
- China’s Common Prosperity philosophy will drive change
- Chemical industry must work out how to meet rising plastics demand sustainably
- Industry inertia could block progress
- Trade war possible between the UK and EU over Brexit disagreements
- UK businesses must lobby government to resolve dispute
Ammonia and propylene markets are being closely followed by acrylonitrile (ACN) players in Europe and while both are balanced to healthy supply wise and demand is still good, energy costs are spiralling.
Listen in as ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham asks Richard Ewing and Nel Weddle about the latest developments and what to expect in the short term
- Spiking energy costs squeezing margins
- Ammonia prices almost tripled in past year West of Suez
- Costs to dominate propylene contract talks for Nov
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Tight supplies and strong demand have sent 2-Ethyhexanol (2-EH) prices in Asia to an all-time high in end July, but market sentiment is expected to weaken this quarter.
· Tight supplies expected to ease by late Q4
· Demand seen softer
· Buyers’ resistance could grow stronger
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editor Seng Li Peng about recent developments in the Asian 2-EH market.
Europe acetone, phenol and derivative bisphenol A (BPA) are grappling with market imbalances, margin impacts due to spiking energy costs, low acetone prices and further Asian export uncertainty, due to China's strict energy clampdown
Listen in as ICIS pricing editors Heidi Finch and Jane Gibson discuss the latest market developments and near-term market expectations:
- Phenol Q4 adder settles up on various factors, outweighing the October benzene drop
- Phenol strong and tight, mismatched with the soft and long acetone market
- BPA formula contracts firm, gap widens over spot in H1 October
- BPA faces various pulls on supply
- Spiking energy costs, falling acetone prices - weigh on margins
- Possible impacts on Asian exports from China's energy measures watched.
Podcast interview by Heidi Finch and Jane Gibson
Podcast editing by Chris Barker
Europe’s chemical industry is already investing for a low carbon future, but will require new sources of public and private finance to scale up for success, according to Caroline Ciuciu CEO of The European Petrochemical Association (EPCA).
- Chemical industry transformation is already underway
- Electrification will require huge amounts of renewable energy
- Accessing finance to scale up is a huge challenge
- Public funds, regulatory framework must encourage innovation
- China’s Common Prosperity strategy will drive low carbon investment
- Middle East exports to China could be threatened if carbon rules toughened
- Diversity & Inclusion vital for future industry success
- EPCA had more than 800 registered delegates
LONDON (ICIS)-- Editors Caroline Murray (Europe), Hazel Goh (Asia) and Luly Stephens (Americas) discuss the global polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and feedstock shortages that characterise the market, and the chaos that logistic costs and other high-cost variables are having on the market.
· Soaring freight and container costs continue to impact trade flows
· Unexpected shortages in the Americas keep prices high
· Higher Asia offers plus freight puts upward pressure in other regions
· China inventories low, sales moving, some producers affected by dual control policy
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s adipic acid (ADA) markets face supply uncertainty amid cut operating rates in China due to the dual control policy. Volatility in the feedstock benzene markets have also put pressure on ADA production. Firm pricing in the related methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) markets have also weighed on ADA buyers’ confidence. Amid existing seasonal downstream lull, buyers have also remained on the sidelines due to a lack of buying urgency.
- Feedstock benzene exert pressure on ADA amid gains
- Seasonal lull plagued cargo uptake in Asia in Q3
- Asia MDI supply snug on planned maintenance
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editor Zhi Xuan Ho on recent developments in the Asian adipic acid market.
In this episode of the podcast, Senior Reporter Felicia Loo discusses the current market conditions of several major petrochemical products in the Middle East.
- Constrained cargo availability seen in polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC).
- PVC in the GCC and East Mediterranean (East Med) is underpinned by constrained Asian supply.
- But, on the other hand, consumption for base oils is weak while that of polyethylene (PE) pipe grade is stable.
China’s ‘Common Prosperity’ strategy will slow its economy and reduce demand for chemicals as it pivots away from an unsustainable property bubble and lowers carbon intensity.
- ‘Common Prosperity’ contributes to construction, energy problems
- Expect no seasonal fourth quarter peak in China chemicals demand
- Follows disappointing year-to-date as supply chain crisis hurt exports
- China has grown from 11% of global chemicals demand in 2000 to more than 30%
- China’s economic growth built on unsustainable debt
- Expect lower chemicals demand in China as economy slows
- Europe petrochemicals face energy, supply chain challenges
- Europe can access EU recovery funds for low carbon future
LONDON (ICIS)--European Melamine editor Melissa Hurley discusses the global supply tightness, surging record high prices and the future demand situation with Senior Editor Manager Joson Ng in Asia and US editor Larry Terry.
- Asia melamine prices at all time high; what's next after Golden week holiday?
- European suppliers separately target huge triple-digit increases for Q4
- US Q4 contracts to settle in near term; supply pressure intensifying
Additional reporting from Joson Ng and Larry Terry.
LONDON (ICIS)--European monoethylene glycol (MEG) editor Melissa Hurley discusses the global supply outlook with Judith Wang, Senior Analyst Ann Sun, and Antoinette Smith.
- Asia maintains uptrend on firm feedstocks ahead of national holidays in China
- European import supply snug; pending ADD ruling generates uncertainty
- US Q4 turnarounds, healthy demand leaves little available for export
Additional reporting from Judith Wang, Senior Analyst Ann Sun, and Antoinette Smith.
Rocketing oil and gas prices are putting fertilizer and chemical producers under intense pressure while destroying downstream demand.
- Strong gas demand in H1 means storage is at record low levels
- Fears that fertilizer production cuts could threaten food production
- Fertilizers prices break records
- Rising oil and gas prices push chemical production costs higher
- Geopolitics is driving the energy supply crunch, not lack of product
- High energy prices could trigger demand destruction, global recession
The European n-butanol (NBA) market has seen improved availability in late-Q3, with its derivatives glycol ethers, butyl acrylate (butac) and acrylate esters seeing a similar trend. Pockets of tightness emerge for ethyl acrylate (ethyl-A) and glycol ethers but prices remain relatively steady.
Fertilizer manufacturing and its by-product C02 is headline news in the UK, but the story of CF Industries closing ammonium nitrates production has by far bigger ramifications for the global market.
Across the fertilizer chain, inventories are low following a period of planned and unplanned outages and strong demand in H1 2021, which means that the availability of key nitrogen fertilizers is already limited.
Prices are moving up on a daily basis for all nitrogen fertilizers and the demand season has only just started. Some are already above 2007-2008 economic crisis levels.
Tune in to the ICIS Fertilizer team giving their views on the current market situation and how it is being felt across the globe.
The potential debt default by China’s massive Evergrande property group shows a government shift to lower debt and redistribute wealth, with important implications for chemical markets there and around the world.
- Evergrande employs 200,000 people, its debt is greater than Portugal’s GDP
- Most of China’s growth has been based on borrowing
- Bubble may be about to burst
- Domestic consumption in China may fall
- President Xi introducing socialism through Common Prosperity philosophy
- China slowdown could force closure of US plants relying on exports
- Polyurethanes, expandable polystyrene (EPS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), phenolic resins could see negative China growth this year
- Longer term, China’s economy may grow more slowly but sustainably
- Europe acylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polystyrene (PS), expandable PS (EPS) hit by soaring logistics costs, delays
- Sky high container rates, road logistics also affected
- End use demand remains strong from automotive, construction
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Asia’s phthalic anhydride (PA) import markets are supported by feedstock cost pressure and recovering demand in the third quarter (Q3), with market sentiment poised to stay strong in the fourth quarter (Q4).
· Feedstock orthoxylene cost pressure persisted significant
· Freight rate expectations supported CIF India discussions
· Tight spot supply outlook in October
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editor Luffy Wu on the recent developments in the Asian PA market.
Arkema’s purchase of Ashland’s performance adhesives business will be the next step in the company’s transformation to a 100% specialty materials business by 2024, its CEO told ICIS on Thursday.
- Ashland performance adhesives has leadership positions in US
- Arkema will sell Ashland technology to the rest of the world
- Arkema was 50% commodities at its creation in 2006
- Before PMMA sale in May 2021, Arkema was 80% specialties
- With Ashland close to 90% specialties
- Next step is fluorogas disposal on road to 100% specialties by 2024
- Hydrogen economy will become a growth platform
- Logistics crisis, insufficient restocking, will last at least until year-end
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- The Asia and European propylene markets have faced a host of challenges, including shipping congestion, tepid demand, and lengthened supply.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Editor Julia Tan, the editor of the ICIS Asia-Pacific Propylene Report speaks with Nel Weddle, Senior Editor for Olefins, to recap what has happened and discuss what trends may lie ahead.
Global bulk liquid chemical shippers are suffering oversupply, poor demand and low rates in contrast to the container market which is very buoyant.
- Bulk liquid chemical shipping market is depressed
- Oversupply caused by petroleum, jet fuel carriers switching to chemicals
- Demand low because of a shortage of product to transport
- Some owners are dry-docking ships
- Tanker market may stabilise as new vessel orders are low
- Contrast to container market which is tight with strong demand, shortages, soaring rates
- More regional chemical markets developing
- Very strong arbitrage opportunities for Asia polypropylene (PP)
- Potential default of China Evergrande may signal problems for property market
- President Xi’s Common Prosperity philosophy unlikely to hurt chemical markets
Global bulk liquid chemical shippers are suffering oversupply, poor demand and low rates in contrast to the container market which is very buoyant.
- Bulk liquid chemical shipping market is depressed
- Oversupply caused by petroleum, jet fuel carriers switching to chemicals
- Demand low because of a shortage of product to transport
- Some owners are dry-docking ships
- Tanker market may stabilise as new vessel orders are low
- Contrast to container market which is tight with strong demand, shortages, soaring rates
- More regional chemical markets developing
- Very strong arbitrage opportunities for Asia polypropylene (PP)
- Potential default of China Evergrande may signal problems for property market
- President Xi’s Common Prosperity philosophy unlikely to hurt chemical markets
Global bulk liquid chemical shippers are suffering oversupply, poor demand and low rates in contrast to the container market which is very buoyant.
- Bulk liquid chemical shipping market is depressed
- Oversupply caused by petroleum, jet fuel carriers switching to chemicals
- Demand low because of a shortage of product to transport
- Some owners are dry-docking ships
- Tanker market may stabilise as new vessel orders are low
- Contrast to container market which is tight with strong demand, shortages, soaring rates
- More regional chemical markets developing
- Very strong arbitrage opportunities for Asia polypropylene (PP)
- Potential default of China Evergrande may signal problems for property market
- President Xi’s Common Prosperity philosophy unlikely to hurt chemical markets
Global bulk liquid chemical shippers are suffering oversupply, poor demand and low rates in contrast to the container market which is very buoyant.
- Bulk liquid chemical shipping market is depressed
- Oversupply caused by petroleum, jet fuel carriers switching to chemicals
- Demand low because of a shortage of product to transport
- Some owners are dry-docking ships
- Tanker market may stabilise as new vessel orders are low
- Contrast to container market which is tight with strong demand, shortages, soaring rates
- More regional chemical markets developing
- Very strong arbitrage opportunities for Asia polypropylene (PP)
- Potential default of China Evergrande may signal problems for property market
- President Xi’s Common Prosperity philosophy unlikely to hurt chemical markets
Global bulk liquid chemical shippers are suffering oversupply, poor demand and low rates in contrast to the container market which is very buoyant.
- Bulk liquid chemical shipping market is depressed
- Oversupply caused by petroleum, jet fuel carriers switching to chemicals
- Demand low because of a shortage of product to transport
- Some owners are dry-docking ships
- Tanker market may stabilise as new vessel orders are low
- Contrast to container market which is tight with strong demand, shortages, soaring rates
- More regional chemical markets developing
- Very strong arbitrage opportunities for Asia polypropylene (PP)
- Potential default of China Evergrande may signal problems for property market
- President Xi’s Common Prosperity philosophy unlikely to hurt chemical markets
The American Chemistry Council’s chief economist analyses the impact of Storm Ida and reflects on key changes which have shaped the chemical industry over the last 30 years.
- Storm Ida will delay US inventory rebuild into 2022
- After Storm Uri consensus was for inventory rebuild by Q3/4 2021
- Around 15% of US ethylene capacity could be offline for 2-3 weeks longer
- Ida adds to existing difficulties in global supply chains
- Ida outages impact Europe’s ability to import from the US
- Shortages may continue to inflate prices
- Constant supply chain disruption could spell end of globalisation
- Only 30% of shipping is arriving on time
- Shale gas revolutionised US chemicals
- Focus on quarterly results at expense of long-term vision
- Climate emergency, low carbon production will drive industry
Kevin is joined by ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.
- Global operating rate races past 90% for the first time in 30 years, says the American Chemistry Council
- Healthy downstream production, except for automotive
- Pandemic restrictions, logistics crisis has driven tight supply/demand for chemicals
- New Asia crackers about to start up
- Low vaccination rates threaten economic recovery, especially in Asia
- Long-term logistics, production disruption will boost local supply chains
- China manufacturing hurt by logistics costs, delays on exports
- Weaker China demand will reduce need for chemical imports
In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Nigel Davis, ICIS Insight Editor, John Richardson, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.
Nazif Nazmul, Europe editor for ethyl and methyl tert-butyl ethers (ETBE and MTBE) and biofuels discusses with Zubair Adam, Europe editor for toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) the impacts that gasoline demand had for these products during the peak summer period.
Nazif Nazmul, Europe editor for ethyl and methyl tert-butyl ethers (ETBE and MTBE) and biofuels discusses with Zubair Adam, Europe editor for toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) the impacts that gasoline demand had for these products during the peak summer period.
The container logistics and supply chain crisis could continue for years, forcing chemical companies to pursue less global, more regional strategies.
- Pandemic has exposed major flaws in global logistics system
- Regions have become more cut off from each other
- Logistics crisis could persist until emerging economies are fully vaccinated
- Chemical companies should abandon global supply chains
- Lack of new ships means container capacity will remain constrained
- Asia unstable thanks to big capacity expansions, poor demand growth
- Drive for zero carbon will help drive local/regional chemical supply chains
- China more self-sufficient in polymers such as polypropylene (PP), purified terephthalic acid (PTA)
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Supply balance for paraxylene (PX) in Asia is relatively balanced, but near term outlook is clouded by the recent weakness seen in the downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyester markets in China. Aside from PTA and polyester demand weakness in China, persistent high container freight markets are also acting as a headwind to the market.
- Current PX supply stays balance, might change according to downstream demand
- Containment efforts to curb spread of pandemic negative impacts demand
- High container freight rates pose a headwind for the PTA markets
- Market uncertainty to keep participants cautious
European butanediol (BDO) editor Nick Cleeve and Engineering Plastics editor Zubair Adam discuss the Q3 price settlements and key market dynamics for the two products.
With no end in sight to the unprecedented supply chain shocks that have run through global trade since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, chemicals sector players continue to adapt to the ever-changing landscape. With complete global vaccination still on the distant horizon, it remains difficult to tell when things will shift back to normal, or what normal is likely to look at in the post-pandemic era.
In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, chief news correspondent Tom Brown interviews Dorothee Arns, director general of Fecc, Nigel Davis, ICIS Insight Editor, and John Richardson, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia.
Africa and Turkey PE/PP editor Ben Lake discusses the recent recovery of prices in both Africa and Turkey.
Then, why a myriad of issues make even a short term outlook difficult and why caution may be important despite positive sentiment building ahead of the polymers high season.
In the wake of INEOS’ sale of its Bilbao sulphur burner to WeylChem, Sylvia Traganida speaks to Senior Markets Editor for Potash and Sulphuric Acid, Andy Hemphill, about this week’s market-moving news.
LONDON (ICIS)--Supply tightness is easing slightly for much of the oxo-alcohols chain as seasonal slowdowns serve as a check on consumption, though some limitations remain.
The seasonal slowdown is more slight than in previous years.
Major producer BASF's force majeure on n-butanol (NBA), which is a key feedstock for the rest of the oxo-alcohols chain.
Acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech discusses market conditions with oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, glycol ethers editor Eashani Chavda and butyl acetate (butac) editor Nick Cleeve.
NBA is a solvent with more than half if its production used as an intermediate chemical in the production of butyl acrylates for paints, coatings and adhesives, or acetates and glycol ethers. 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) is used to make plasticizers, mainly dioctyl phthalate (DOP). Key end markets include the construction, appliance and automotive industries.
Acrylate esters are used in the manufacture of surface coatings, paints and resins, adhesives, plastics, textiles and paper.
Divided in E-series and P-series, depending on whether they are made from ethylene oxide (EO) or propylene oxide (PO), glycol ethers are mainly used as a solvent for domestic and industrial applications such as paints and coatings.
Butac is mostly used as a solvent in paints and coatings or as a synthetic fruit flavouring in food products.
SINGAPORE(ICIS)--Southeast Asia’s demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) has been affected by coronavirus cases, especially of the Delta variant. On the other hand, buyers in India have been looking to restock amid low inventory levels.
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editors Jonathan Chou and Zhi Xuan Ho on the recent developments for PVC in Asia and what it means for near-term demand-supply fundamentals.
- SE Asia PVC demand falters amid rising COVID cases
- Sellers in Asia look to India for support
- Interest levels for August and September shipments rise in India on low June and July arrivals
- Better than expected monsoon rains to support September recovery despite some property destruction
Chemical markets may be artificially buoyed by inventory building along stretched supply chains, but poor downstream demand could lead to rapid destocking in the second half of 2021.
- Supply chain disruption is regionalising supply chains
- This causes fly up in prices, shortages of material
- Inventory building may mask poor real downstream demand
- Record second quarter (Q2) results may not be sustainable
- Less than 40% of ships arrived in the US on time in Q1
- China’s economy was already slowing before latest floods
- Asia may see second year of negative petrochemical demand growth
- More lockdowns due to low vaccination rates in Asia, natural disasters
- Record Q2 financial results driven by upstream, especially PE
- Purchasing Manager Indices show recovery slowing in all regions
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Senior Reporter Nurluqman Suratman discuses with ICIS China Principal Analyst, Patricia Tao on the current feedstock issues that China's teapot refineries are facing following the recent crackdown by the Chinese authorities on crude import quotas trading.
Forecasts of sharp increases in the costs of carbon for the chemicals industry highlight the need to plan now for a transition to more efficient production.
- Chemical industry currently enjoys a lot of free carbon allowances
- But these will be decreased, adding significant costs
- 2021-2025 – Europe chemicals to pay €1bn/year (with €50/tonne carbon price) to €1.5bn/year (€70/tonne)
- 2026-2030 possible 40-50% cut in free allowances for chemical sector
- 2026-2030 ICIS carbon price forecast €90-€100/tonne
- Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will prevent carbon leakage
- This will allow higher carbon pricing in Europe without disadvantaging local production
- CBAM applies first to cement, electricity, fertilisers, iron and steel
- Chemicals, polymers could be added towards 2030 or later
- Chemical companies need to make radical changes to business models
- Low carbon solutions must work in developing countries
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--A resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic has significantly impacted PP demand in Asia, and with a slew of new production capacities coming on-stream in China later this year and production recovery in Europe and the US, PP prices may continue to face pressure going forward, despite increases in freight and production costs.
· Pandemic casts doubts on end-product demand
· Higher freight and production costs putting pressure on suppliers
· More PP production capacities in China to start commercial operation
· Further production recovery in the West
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editor Jackie Wong on the recent developments in the PP market.
After a stellar first half, global chemical markets may now go into decline, driven by destocking and faltering downstream demand.
- China polyolefins demand for 2021 will be above 2019 but below 2020
- 2020 was a bubble year, now the bubble is deflating
- China’s stellar 2020 was based on exports of finished goods to the west
- Supply chain problems, rising prices led to stock-building
- Chemical and commodity prices may now have peaked
- Chemical share prices fell sharply as investors pull out of materials
- Second quarter may be the peak, with slowdown in H2
- Questions over magnitude of likely H2 slowdown
- Demand for durable goods may decline
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- The Asia and European acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) markets faced constrained supply, a spate of price escalation, and strong derivative demand in 2020. Now, in mid-2021, demand is waning throughout Asia on the back of various coronavirus resurgences, while European demand appears to remain robust.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Reporter Julia Tan, the editor of the ICIS Asia-Pacific ABS Report speaks with Stephanie Wix, the editor of the ICIS Europe ABS Report, to discuss what has happened and what may lie ahead.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Both Asia’s and China's styrene price movements have been affected by cost pressures stemming from firmer upstream benzene and ethylene performance, together with a seasonal lull in China's downstream domestic demand and squeezed styrenics production spreads.
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editors Trixie Yap and Tina Zhang on the recent development of these conflicting factors and what it means for demand-supply fundamentals in the short run.
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Negative margins from high costs have resulted in short-term run rate cuts from Chinese makers
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Rising regional NE Asia supply after turnaround season could be neutralised if arbitrage flow from US stops for H2 Sep-Oct arrival
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Downstream demand in domestic China will remain on a need-to basis as the seasonal lull extends to August
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Chinese import buying will ultimately be dependent on back-to-back margins
Here’s the link for the registration form to the seminar
https://secureforms.icis.com/ICISAsiaStyreneMethodologyandMarketUpdates/?cmpid=ILC%7CCHEM%7CCHWCT-2021-APAC-StyreneMethodology-PDFInvite-Eds&sfid=7014G000001eAfp
European low carbon legislation, due to be published this week, has the potential to revolutionise the region’s chemical industry.
- Drive to low carbon will move chemicals to local, small scale production and recycling
- Shift to low carbon could open up massive new markets for chemicals
- Carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will make charge for energy-intensive products crossing EU border from countries with lower emissions regulations
- CBAM may replace EU Carbon Trading System
- CBAM is part of Fit for 55 package which has legislation to help meet zero carbon target
- Chemicals, refining not included in CBAM
- Electric vehicles will replace conventional very rapidly
- Oil refining is now in terminal decline
- Selling services will become as important as selling materials for chemical companies
Chemical producers in Europe could see the cost of zero or low carbon hydrogen equalise with current production technologies as investment costs fall and carbon pricing increases.
- Green hydrogen $3.5/kg in Europe but falling technology costs could equalise blue, green, grey by 2030
- Huge cost, technology, infrastructure challenges must be overcome
- Massive infrastructure investment needed for hydrogen pipelines, ammonia conversion
- Funding the investment required will be a big challenge
- Chemical companies partner with energy groups for green electrolysis
- In chemicals hydrogen mainly used for ammonia (30m tonnes/year), methanol (12m)
- Ammonia, methanol emit 670m tones/year of carbon dioxide
- Need to convert these sectors to low carbon hydrogen
- Oil refining uses 35m tonnes/year of hydrogen
- Heavy road transport, shipping could switch to hydrogen
- Sceptics suggest hydrogen should be kept for niches where electrification is not feasible
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- Market sentiment in Asian polycarbonate (PC) spot markets have been bearish lately amid weak demand and upstream market declines, particularly in the Chinese bisphenol A (BPA) spot markets. However, the US PC market continues to be relatively strong on tight supply and good demand.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Reporter Julia Tan, the editor of the ICIS Asia-Pacific PC Report speaks with Senior Editor John Donnelly, the editor of the ICIS US PC Report, to discuss recent market developments and what may lie in store in the third quarter of this year.
Third quarter contract price negotiations are getting underway in the European butanediol (BDO) and derivative polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) markets.
BDO report editor Nick Cleeve and Engineering Plastics report editor Zubair Adam discuss the key talking points for quarterly contract discussions on both products.
In this podcast, ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham (ACN) and Stephanie Wix (ABS) discuss the latest developments in the market and what can be expected in the short-term.
- Q3 demand expected to remain strong for both ACN and ABS
- Both markets awaiting feedstock settlements
- Logistics add to the headache
- An easing in supply could be seen later in Q3
In this podcast, ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham (ACN) and Stephanie Wix (ABS) discuss the latest developments in the market and what can be expected in the short-term.
- Q3 demand expected to remain strong for both ACN and ABS
- Both markets awaiting feedstock settlements
- Logistics add to the headache
- An easing in supply could be seen later in Q3
Record-high container logistics costs and delays are impacting chemical markets in different ways, with margins spiking in Europe while a massive gap opens up between regional polymer prices.
- Polymer oversupply in Asia, faltering demand growth
- Record price differentials from Asia to Europe, US should be good arbitrage opportunity
- Pandemic will get worse until developing nations are vaccinated
- Europe chemical margins are very high amid strong demand, supply disruption
- Aging population means most economies should be slow-growing or stagnant
- Central banks enabled 2008 financial crisis, are now artificially propping up economies
- Pandemic has accelerated shift towards low carbon future
Record-high container logistics costs and delays are impacting chemical markets in different ways, with margins spiking in Europe while a massive gap opens up between regional polymer prices.
- Polymer oversupply in Asia, faltering demand growth
- Record price differentials from Asia to Europe, US should be good arbitrage opportunity
- Pandemic will get worse until developing nations are vaccinated
- Europe chemical margins are very high amid strong demand, supply disruption
- Aging population means most economies should be slow-growing or stagnant
- Central banks enabled 2008 financial crisis, are now artificially propping up economies
- Pandemic has accelerated shift towards low carbon future
Record-high container logistics costs and delays are impacting chemical markets in different ways, with margins spiking in Europe while a massive gap opens up between regional polymer prices.
- Polymer oversupply in Asia, faltering demand growth
- Record price differentials from Asia to Europe, US should be good arbitrage opportunity
- Pandemic will get worse until developing nations are vaccinated
- Europe chemical margins are very high amid strong demand, supply disruption
- Aging population means most economies should be slow-growing or stagnant
- Central banks enabled 2008 financial crisis, are now artificially propping up economies
- Pandemic has accelerated shift towards low carbon future
Record-high container logistics costs and delays are impacting chemical markets in different ways, with margins spiking in Europe while a massive gap opens up between regional polymer prices.
- Polymer oversupply in Asia, faltering demand growth
- Record price differentials from Asia to Europe, US should be good arbitrage opportunity
- Pandemic will get worse until developing nations are vaccinated
- Europe chemical margins are very high amid strong demand, supply disruption
- Aging population means most economies should be slow-growing or stagnant
- Central banks enabled 2008 financial crisis, are now artificially propping up economies
- Pandemic has accelerated shift towards low carbon future
Record-high container logistics costs and delays are impacting chemical markets in different ways, with margins spiking in Europe while a massive gap opens up between regional polymer prices.
- Polymer oversupply in Asia, faltering demand growth
- Record price differentials from Asia to Europe, US should be good arbitrage opportunity
- Pandemic will get worse until developing nations are vaccinated
- Europe chemical margins are very high amid strong demand, supply disruption
- Aging population means most economies should be slow-growing or stagnant
- Central banks enabled 2008 financial crisis, are now artificially propping up economies
- Pandemic has accelerated shift towards low carbon future
Record-high container logistics costs and delays are impacting chemical markets in different ways, with margins spiking in Europe while a massive gap opens up between regional polymer prices.
- Polymer oversupply in Asia, faltering demand growth
- Record price differentials from Asia to Europe, US should be good arbitrage opportunity
- Pandemic will get worse until developing nations are vaccinated
- Europe chemical margins are very high amid strong demand, supply disruption
- Aging population means most economies should be slow-growing or stagnant
- Central banks enabled 2008 financial crisis, are now artificially propping up economies
- Pandemic has accelerated shift towards low carbon future
Here is a June focus podcast on the European Polymethyl Methacrylate (PMMA) market. As June draws to a close, the final Q3 contract negotiations are underway, with discussions driven by the issues and tightness upstream in key feedstock methyl methacrylate (MMA). For more info on MMA click here.
The third quarter demand looks strong, with order books full, while the supply situation is not expected to ease.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- Asian bisphenol A (BPA) spot markets have weakened lately amid weak downstream demand, particularly in the Chinese domestic spot market, while European markets continue to remain strong amid tight availability.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Reporter Julia Tan, the editor of the ICIS Asia-Pacific BPA Report speaks with Senior Editor Heidi Finch, the editor of the ICIS Europe BPA Report, to discuss where the global BPA markets may go in the third quarter of 2021.
The chemical industry needs to act fast to improve Diversity and Inclusion (D&I) as there is a clear link to financial success and the long-term prosperity of the sector.
- Clear link between D&I and financial success
- Sense of urgency required to improve D&I in the chemical sector
- Diverse workforce will prepare chemical companies for the future
- Create environment to allow all staff to speak freely, feel safe
- Pandemic has particularly impacted female employees
The phosphates market has entered a waiting phase following weeks of firmness, as demand is expected from India, Bangladesh and the US amid tight availability.
Senior phosphates editor Sylvia Traganida talks to Deepika Thapliyal about the latest developments in the phosphates market and what lies ahead.
Petrochemical producers will come under increasing feedstock pressure as older refineries close and a new wave of mega-refineries in the Middle East and Asia open.
- With demand fairly flat, more older/smaller refineries will close
- Europe, US chemicals will face fierce competition from Asia, Middle East mega-refineries
- Mega-refineries will add 4-5m bbl/day of capacity
- Refinery closures will pressure naphtha supply
- Poor jet fuel demand holding back refinery sector recovery
- Around 500,000bbl/day of permanent closures in Europe in the last year
- At least five more refineries still idled
- Forecast recovery to only 90% of 2019 levels, may never fully recover
- Naphtha is tight due to strong petrochemical and gasoline demand
- Very strong driving season forecast in US and Europe thanks to “staycations”
- OPEC+ production cuts have helped push oil price up
- Now in reverse with 650,000bbl/day extra production from OPEC+ in June
- Strong bounce back in demand as economies recover
- OPEC+ is fragile, ICIS forecasts $68/bbl average for 2021
- US shale production capped at 11m bbl/day, damaged by pandemic losses
- US no longer the world’s swing producer, starved of investment
- Logistics, supply chain crisis likely to persist until developing world vaccinated
- Unprecedented price differentials between regions
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, editors Damini Dabholkar and Jasmine Khoo, editor in charge of the Middle East and Asia polyether polyols markets, speaks on recent developments.
• Middle East polyols demand tepid as customers procure cautiously
• Ample Asian supply exerts pressure on downward prices, to continue till August
• Upstream PO sentiment sluggish, weighing on polyols market confidence
• COVID-19 resurgence around Asia weakens buying interest on top of seasonal lull
Supply tightness has eased for much of the oxo-alcohols chain, though some limitations remain.
This includes major producer BASF's force majeure on n-butanol (NBA) - a key feedstock for the rest of the oxo-alcohols chain.
Acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech discusses market conditions with oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, glycol ethers editor Eashani Chavda and butyl acetate (butac) editor Nick Cleeve.
LONDON (ICIS)—Senior Editor Caroline Murray and Senior Editor, Recycling, Matt Tudball discuss supply and demand in the European polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET markets, and what the drop in virgin PET price levels could mean for supply in the R-PET sector.
The orthoxylene (OX) - phthalic anhydride (PA) - plasticizers value chain has seen a number of hiccups on the supply front in the first half of 2021 against buoyant demand, with tightness characterizing all three markets in the first quarter and the start of the second quarter.
Some supply curtailments are receding in June all along the chain, and ICIS editors Nick Cleeve, Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela and Nicole Simpson have been sounding the market on the extent and the sustainability of the demand in the months to come.
The chemical industry faces an uphill battle to transform itself quickly enough for a low carbon future, but it is a battle it must win.
- Study by Germany’s nova Institute suggests 100% of plastics production could be low carbon by 2050
- But faces formidable supply chain and technological challenges
- Developing world will fail to improve recycling without massive investment
- Strong demand growth may absorb waves of new polyethylene (PE) capacity
- Europe seeing strong chemicals demand, some markets normalising
- Supply chain disruption continues to crimp supply
- Coronavirus resurgence in southern China hits ports
Africa and Turkey polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) editor Ben Lake talks through the latest price and market trends.
There is also time for an outlook for the coming months and a question and answer session.
Governments and regulators need to act more quickly on climate change to give chemical companies certainty as they plan to invest in low carbon technologies.
- Chemical and energy companies could partner to secure renewable energy supplies
- BASF CEO Martin Brudermuller says company needs more renewable energy to meet climate goals
- Brudermuller warns that Europe may fall behind the US and China on renewables
- Industry needs certainty on targets, regulation, support
- Court decision against Shell highlights need for swift climate action by oil companies
- G7 leaders should commit to vaccinating emerging economies
- Rising inflation could push up interest rates and dampen economic growth
Used cooking oil methyl ester (UCOME) and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) consumption is set to rise annually up to 2030 in Europe due to the EU Renewable Energy Directive mandates (EU RED II).
The waste-based biodiesel grades, which has higher greenhouse gas emissions savings properties compared to conventional crops-based biodiesel, can also be used as a feedstock to produce sustainable aviation fuel.
Spot demand for UCOME and HVO volumes is already on the rise, as Europe emerges out of lockdowns.
Market reporters Daisy De Selliers, Andrew Putwain, and Nazif Nazmul discuss how the European UCOME and HVO market landscape is evolving.
Chemical company leaders must take account of demographic trends because they have a strong influence on chemical demand patterns.
- Demographics important as aging populations drag on chemicals demand
- Emerging economies with young populations will see good chemicals demand growth
- China faces particular challenges despite abandoning the two child policy
- LLDPE demand has surprised on the upside, driven by internet packaging
- Robust growth forecasts from ICIS Supply & Demand database
- Could be a need for more capacity unless recycling dents virgin demand
- Senior managers need to analyse chemical supply chain challenges
Falling chemical prices in Europe and the US could be a sign that disrupted chemical markets are returning to more stable conditions as supply chain disruption eases.
- ICIS Europe and US spot daily price index falls sharply
- Could be a sign that supply chain issues are easing
- China polymer consumption collapsed Jan-April 2021 compared to previous quarter
- Slowing economy, supply chain issues may be responsible
- China will deflate global chemical prices once supply chains normalise
- International Energy Agency’s Net Zero by 2050 report spells out demise of fossil fuels
The increase in the phosphates subsidy in India this week is expected to lead to a rise in DAP imports, as demand is gearing up for the summer in Pakistan and Bangladesh. In the sulphur market, players are waiting for monthly prices in the Middle East to give some price direction.
Annalise Porter, Erica Sesay and Sylvia Traganida talk about the latest developments in the sulphur and phosphates markets and also the upcoming trends.
European ethylene glycol editor Melissa Hurley discusses the global reaction to proposed EU anti-dumping duties against US and Saudi Arabia imports with Judith Wang, Assistant Industry Analyst Olivia Dai and Antoinette Smith.
Additional reporting from Judith Wang, Assistant Industry Analyst Olivia Dai and Antoinette Smith.
Following another force majeure declaration in the European oxo-alcohols market, tightness persists for downstream derivatives glycol ethers, acrylate esters and butyl acetate (butac).
However these markets are facing a shift in sentiment, with price pressure easing and recent spot assessments valued stable to soft, depending on the product.
ICIS editors Eashani Chavda, Nicole Simpson, Mathew-Jolin Beech and Nick Cleeve discuss the latest developments for oxo-alcohols and its derivatives.
There is a heavy maintenance period currently being carried out for propylene in Europe, but spot has occasionally traded lower than contract for the first time in six months, so how will this affect the tight acrylonitrile (ACN) markets?
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s ethylene and downstream capacity is undergoing an explosive growth in 2021 that has cast a shadow over the market outlook for the second half of the year.
In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editors Yeow Pei Lin, Trixie Yap, Judith Wang and Izham Ahmad, on ethylene and its key downstream sectors styrene monomer (SM), mono ethylene glycol (MEG) and polyethylene (PE).
• Asia’s ethylene capacity to expand by over 12m tonnes/year in 2021
• More than half of the capacity will come onstream by mid-year
• Growth concentrated in China, South Korea
• China’s import demand recovery capped by rising domestic supply
• Korea’s exports to rise in H2 2021
• Potential change in Chinese SM producers' cost structure on better feedstock availability could become key supply driver
• FOB China SM exports seen as a potential solution amid rising supply in China
• Less than half of the new SM capacity in China to come online in H2 2021 have corresponding downstream styrenics expansions
• Asia MEG market heads for a dilemma
• MEG margins may improve as rising ethylene supply may help reduce feedstock cost
• PE supply in China, rest of Asia, may increase
• PE demand likely to remain challenged by rising Covid-19 cases
Sky high petrochemical prices, which are fuelling downstream inflation, could become deflationary as China’s massive build out of projects comes onstream.
- China’s capacity expansions may cause petrochemical overcapacity, price deflation
- Asia margins for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) already weaker
- Styrene monomer, paraxylene (PX), ethylene glycol (EG) also affected
- 2021 is a watershed year as capacities ramp up
- China may reportedly be able to source cheaper raw materials from Iran
- Countries which rely on exports to China must seek new business models, markets
- Plastic recycling infrastructure must be ramped up quickly
- Entire plastics value chain should take responsibility for boosting recycling
- Petrochemical industry leaders need to publically commit to hit recycling targets
- Developing world faces big problems in improving recycling
- Global pact similar to Paris Climate Change agreement may be required
ICIS Senior Editor, Caroline Murray, and Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball discuss the lack of clarity and high levels of uncertainty around the European polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET (R-PET) markets caused by logistics and production issues, and questions around summer PET bottle demand.
After steep price climbs over Q1, European domestic and export base oils Group I prices are starting to stabilise. Though operating rates are likely to remain low while the pandemic continues, the European turnaround season is nearing its end. As a result, there are some expectations that supply constraints could ease in H2 2021.
Editors Samantha Wright and Eashani Chavda discuss the latest developments for Europe Group I base oils.
The global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets remain tight, but the situation is not as critical as recent months.
In this podcast, ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham (Europe), Li Li Chng (Asia) and Lucas Hall (US) discuss the latest developments in the market and what can be expected in the short-term.
- India a key area to follow closely
- Planned maintenance to keep Europe tight
- China market remains soft
- US hurricane season considered from June
LONDON (ICIS)--After a volatile year, global methanol market conditions are seeing signs of stability. Despite high coronavirus cases, the Indian market remains bullish, while China and other parts of southeast Asia are more stable. Trading has also slowed down in the US and Europe, with markets quiet in mid-Q2.
However, conditions can quickly change, as we've seen in the past year. Global market fundamentals have been heavily influenced by unplanned outages as well as extreme weather conditions and Covid-19 resurgences.
ICIS methanol editors Eashani Chavda, Kite Chong and Anna Matherne discuss the latest developments in the global market.
Head of market reporting, Barbara Ortner, and markets editor Fergus Jensen, discuss developments in the Europe styrene market following another record settlement in the barge contract price in May.
The seventh consecutive increase in the contract price came as a surprise to many in the market, as spot prices have tumbled by more than a third since their March peak.
Tightness in the European styrene market, that was driven by major plant outages in Europe and the US this year, has largely eased. But recent weeks have seen a lull in styrene spot market activity, bringing styrene spot margins over benzene to low levels.
With maintenance planned and underway at plants both upstream and downstream of the Europe styrene market, what can we expect to see in the coming weeks and what can we look out for?
While chemical distributors have been able to thrive, despite chaotic supply/demand conditions, they must now plan for long-term trends such as digitalisation and sustainability.
- Current chaotic market conditions have echoes of 2008/9 financial crisis
- Distributor financial results have shown resilience in face of crisis
- Better quality data is helping distributors navigate crisis with agility
- Distribution is 15-20% of total chemical demand
- Care needed to build resilient supply chains without unsustainable costs
- Distributors can play role in developing regional circular economies
- Further consolidation can be expected via mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
- Digitisation will allow better customer engagement, user experience
- Questions over size of Asia distribution market, quoted at $120-130bn
Register for Distribution Day to hear CEOs discuss the future of distribution.
https://www.fecc.org/event/european-distribution-day/
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- Asia is a key player in the global butadiene (BD) market, accounting for more than 62% of global consumption. It is also the world’s largest BD producer, churning out nearly 59% of global output.
Key BD consumers in Asia included China and India, which are themselves major car markets, for which automobile is an important downstream outlet for BR. But now that India is battling a devastating second wave of coronavirus infection, it has given rise to uncertainties on BD’s near-term demand outlook, at a time when regional supplies are poised to grow and lengthen, once new projects come on stream in H2 2021.
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with Ai Teng, market editor for Asia Butadiene, about current circumstances in Asia’s BD spot market and what may lie ahead in the near term.
The Indian tender has come as a shock for the urea market. MMTC was able to buy only 550,000 tonnes of urea, as China refused to sell. Shippers are also showing reluctance to send vessels to India because of the surging coronavirus outbreak.
ICIS editors Julia Meehan, Mark Milam and Deepika Thapliyal discuss the outlook for the global market and what to expect in India, China and the US.
LONDON (ICIS)--ICIS editors Jane Gibson, Tarun Raizada and Angeline Soh discuss global phenol and acetone markets, which continue to face supply limitations, impacting trade flows around the world.
Nick Cleeve, editor of the butanediol (BDO) report, discusses the Q2 price settlements in Europe with Zubair Adam, editor of the engineering plastics report which includes downstream polybutylene terephthalate (PBT).
As supply improves in Asia and the US, and panic buying eases in some European markets, new ideas are needed to ensure supply chains will be more robust in the future.
- Change of sentiment in downstream markets as supply eases
- Panic buying phase may be drawing to a close
- China economy and chemicals demand growth are slowing
- Southeast Asia demand faltering, especially India
- China polyolefins prices fell four weeks in a row
- Container crisis, semiconductor shortages hurt China exports
- China self-sufficiency in HDPE, styrene, PP, PX, EG could deflate global prices
- Chemical companies enjoyed stellar first quarter
- Prices, volumes, capacity utilisation all rose strongly
- Supply chains need to become more robust
European oxo-alcohol prices have stabilised in recent weeks following consistent price increases, while derivative pricing has stabilised and even softened in some cases.
European butyl acetate (butac) editor Nick Cleeve discusses conditions across the oxo-alcohols chain with report editor Nicole Simpson, acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers editor Eashani Chavda.
LONDON (ICIS)--European and Asian editors Heidi Finch and Julia Tan discuss persistent short supply in the European and Asian bisphenol A (BPA) markets, but signs of diverging sentiment, as demand changes in Asia.
• China market turns bearish, as demand dips on high prices
• India market impacted by spiking coronavirus cases
• Upstream phenol constraints, peak coatings season could cap Asia BPA supply
• Europe spot remains at record highs on persistent short supply
• Europe supply strain could extend into Q3, on low stocks, robust demand
The merger of Russia’s Sibur and TAIF would create a top 10 global player in ethylene, rubber and plastics; and could help inject new life into the country’s petrochemical sector.
- Merger of Sibur and TAIF would create a global top 10 player in ethylene, rubber and plastics
- Merger could help rejuvenate Russia’s petrochemical sector
- China’s economy lost momentum between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021
- China styrene, polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE) demand fell in Q1 2021
- Container crisis, semiconductor shortage could stifle China exports
- Joe Biden’s earth summit brings tipping point for chemical industry
- Fast adoption of recycling, circular economy now required
- Chemical recycling and local recycling, production networks
ICIS editors Linda Naylor and Ben Lake discuss polyethylene and polypropylene markets, as record high prices continue in Europe, while Turkish prices ease on buyers resistance.
Significant disruptions rippling along the global polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain are likely to continue, largely due to shipping delays, container shortages and high freight costs.
- Vessel availability restricts discussions, in addition to PET buy-sell price gaps
- Europe short on reduced output and shipping concerns, putting buyers on back foot
- Asian spot export discussions at a standstill due to low buy-sell interest
- Americas inventories are lean, producers unable to rebuild stocks prior to hurricane season.
By Hazel Goh, Caroline Murray and Luly Stephens
Chemical producers around the world are enjoying record-breaking margins as the logistics and supply crisis persists amid strong downstream demand.
- Record margins for global polypropylene (PP) and other chemicals
- Strong demand, disrupted supply
- China capacity additions could cause price deflation
- Europe prices at record differentials to other regions
- Danger Europe becoming cut off from global markets by container crisis
- Consumer price inflation may rise if goods not available
- More Europe chemical companies may up earnings guidance
- Pandemic has led to “baby bust” rather than “baby boom”
- This will drag on future demand, require new business models
The downward correction in urea prices continues and the future points to more weakness. Will an Indian tender turn the weak sentiment or will it not be enough to offset Chinese supply?
ICIS editors Julia Meehan, Mark Milam and Deepika Thapliyal discuss what is expected ahead, including the trend in the US domestic market.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Senior Editor Jasmine Khoo speaks with Izham Ahmad, editor in charge of the Middle East base oils market, on recent developments.
Middle East base oils continue to face dire supply shortages with no clear end in sigh
• Middle East spot prices remain at record highs
• SN500 UAE prices have risen 34% since January 2021
• No sign of any improvement in supply in coming weeks
The global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets is at a precipice, supply remains tight, but there are signs that each region will see an improvement moving forward.
In this podcast, ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham (Europe), Li Li Chng (Asia) and Lucas Hall (US) discuss the latest developments in the market and what can be expected in the short-term.
- Supply still restricted, but less critical
- Demand remains robust in all regions
- Easing of pressure from feedstock propylene
Post-pandemic patterns of chemicals demand will break the traditional link to GDP, meaning new models are needed to measure and analyse market trends.
- Post-pandemic demand patterns will vary between mature, emerging economies
- Questions over future demand growth for durable goods, packaging
- Demand has completely broken link to GDP
- Sustainability, geopolitics, demographics will impact demand
- Europe chemicals growth could be driven by sustainability
- China self-sufficiency could alter global chemicals supply picture radically
- US consumers are cautious, in save not spend mode
- Industry must boost customer contact to realise opportunities
- Demographics may be a drag on the US economy
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia's toluene availability has increased, but uptake among buyers remained largely on a need-to basis.
Asia toluene supply improved with more spot cargoes available
Demand may stayed lackluster amid cautious attitude among market players
Eyes on Asia-US arbitrage window and import demand from India
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Senior Editor Jasmine Khoo speaks with Bonnie Yin, editor in charge of the Asia-Pacific toluene market on the recent developments.
ICIS’ Sylvia Traganida speaks to Senior Editor Andy Hemphill as conjecture abounds among muriate of potash fertilizer players over the future of the China 2021-2022 supply contract benchmark, after its counterpart India had its own annual agreement renegotiated at an increase.
LONDON (ICIS)--European editors Heidi Finch and Jane Gibson discuss tight phenol, acetone and BPA markets, as the chain faces supply limitations, strong demand and record-high prices.
In this episode, Nurluqman Suratman speaks with Yvonne Shi in Shanghai about the retreat in petrochemical markets in March following
the surge in the previous two months as demand weakened, accompanied by easing tightness in global and domestic supply.
For some products, supply will increase in the coming months due to scheduled start-ups on new capacities.
OPEC's announcement last week of plans to gradually increase production underlines growing bullishness on the economy, but is the latest bid by the cartel to balance crude markets after years of trying, as peak oil approached.
At the same time, a huge new investment deal agreed between China and Iran is expected to integrate the Middle Eastern player into the Belt and Road initiative, further shifting global petrochemicals power balances.
Closure of the Suez canal heaps further pressure on chemical supply chains which are already suffering from product shortages and strong demand.
- Suez blockage adds to market woes caused by shipping container crisis; US, Europe and Middle East outages; semi-conductor shortages
- No sign of easing in many chemical markets – supply more important than price
- Cargoes stuck at Suez include base oils, methanol, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), polyethylene terephthalic (PET), monoethylene glycol (MEG), acetone, bisphenol A (BPA)
- Pressure building to make supply chains more robust
- Global base oils markets are dry, situation is critical
- China imports of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) have collapsed
ICIS Senior Editors Caroline Murray and Matt Tudball discusses the current state of the European polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET (R-PET) markets amid on-going tightness and high demand, and look to the summer to try and understand where PET and R-PET demand may head in the coming months.
European oxo-alcohols and its derivatives are mong the 43 different products currently being affected by numerous force majeures. This has tightened up supplies and making the markets challenging for all players this month.
In this podcast, ICIS European pricing editors Jane Massingham (oxo-alcohols), Eashani Chavda (glycol ethers), Nick Cleeve (butyl acetate, butac), and Mathew Jolin-Beech (acrylate esters) analyse just how the disruptions is impacting the market.
Chemicals demand is being pushed in different directions as the vaccination rollout helps reopen some economies while continued supply chain disruption stifles end use markets.
- Demand for US chemicals is healthy, driven by stimulus
- Europe suffering from another wave of coronavirus lockdowns
- Shift to online shopping has changed demand patterns
- Supply, logistics disruptions mask real underlying demand patterns
- Big question over China domestic and export demand
- Semi-conductor shortage now affecting consumer electronics as well as autos
- Auto production now affected by polymer shortages
- Inventory destocking may affect chemicals demand in the second quarter
European mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) editor Melissa Hurley discusses impact of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production situation with Senior Editor Caroline Murray. Supply woes are set to spill into April and could continue to impact MEG demand.
LONDON (ICIS)--European editors Melissa Hurley, Eashani Chavda and Jane Gibson discuss market fundamentals for ethylene oxide (EO), monoethylene glycol (MEG), glycol ethers and ethanolamines, as the EO chain faces varying degrees of pressure due to supply limitations.
Butanediol (BDO) report editor Nick Cleeve discusses the tight market situation in Europe with Zubair Adam - editor of downstream polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) included in the engineering plastics report.
ICIS Senior Reporter Nurluqman Suratman speaks Senior Analyst Joey Zhou on factors supporting China's polyolefins market
Acrylonitrile (ACN) editor Jane Massingham and Stephanie Wix - editor of the acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) reports - discuss the ongoing supply constraints of ACN and the impact on downstream markets.
- INEOS ACN FM significantly impacting ABS and SAN producers
- Ongoing strong demand for ABS and SAN likely to continue through H1 of the year
- ABS concerns over April costs and availability of feedstocks
Hydrogen could play a key role in lowering the chemical industry’s carbon footprint thanks to use of renewable energy and carbon storage.
- Hydrogen could become important for low carbon chemical production
- Grey hydrogen uses natural gas as a feedstock and is very carbon-intensive
- Blue hydrogen uses natural gas but stores carbon dioxide
- Green hydrogen uses renewable energy to extract hydrogen from water – zero emissions
- BASF, Solvay, Evonik leading in Europe
- EU Green Deal, Joe Biden may push hydrogen
- Converting hydrogen to ammonia makes it easy to transport
- Force majeures, outages caused by lack of plant maintenance
- Global supply chains not fit for purpose
- China’s “two sessions” have major implications for chemicals
- China’s dual circulation policy aims to reduce debt reliance
Aromatics Markets Editor Fergus Jensen and Stephanie Wix, editor of the styrenics derivatives ABS (acrylonitrile butadiene styrene), SAN (styrene acrylonitrile), PS (polystyrene) and EPS (expandable polystyrene) market reports, discuss current trends and concerns in the styrenics supply chain.
In this podcast, ICIS Senior Reporter Nurluqman Suratman speaks with Felicia Loo on the current macroeconomic developments supporting the majority of Asian petrochemical markets.
Asia's petrochemicals are jazzed in light of a growing global economic recovery and vaccinations underway in many parts of the world, which help stoke market confidence.
Sentiment was upbeat following news of US President Joe Biden who signed into law on Thursday a $1.9tr stimulus package that will provide support to the economy amid the downturn brought on by efforts to mitigate the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
After an approximately 8-month process, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) has completed its investigation and determined that subsidised phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia have materially injured the US phosphate industry.
As a result, there will be countervailing duty orders on phosphate from Russia and Morocco for at least five years.
Senior editors Sylvia Traganida and Mark Milam explain the latest developments and how they will affect the US phosphates market.
LONDON (ICIS)--European base oils Group I spot prices are at multi-year highs in the export and domestic markets, with heavier grades seeing greater pressure due to shortages.
Editors Samantha Wright and Eashani Chavda discuss the latest price changes as well as the outlook for Q2.
Chemical markets are being distorted by logistics bottlenecks and panic buying, but there is optimism for 2021 and beyond.
- Lack of China data makes economy, chemicals hard to assess
- China recovery driven by imports of raw materials, exports of finished goods
- Panic buying may disguise health of underlying real demand
- Container shortages continue to disrupt normal market function
- Bubble may be about to burst in financial markets
- Chemical production, capacity utilisation rose sharply globally in January
- Optimism for 2021 outlook
Ammonia producers on both sides of the Suez have enjoyed a very strong start to 2021, with prices in some regions soaring to levels not seen in nearly six years, but will the favourable market conditions continue into Q2, or will prices soon go into reverse?
Senior ammonia editor Richard Ewing talks to Sylvia Traganida about the latest developments in the market.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s n-butanol (NBA) and downstream butyl acrylate (butyl-A) and butyl acetate (butac) markets have seen surges in spot prices in the recent weeks amid global tight supply.
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, listen to editors Melanie Wee, Jude Chan and Chng Li Li discuss about the latest developments and expectations in the near term.
• US winter storm exacerbates tight supply
• Near term outlook hinges on global production recovery
• Downstream buyers under pressure
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s benzene prices have been on an upswing since the start of the year, along with the general petrochemical complex, as an inflation bias appeared to have set in to global markets. Massive stimulus engaged by governments worldwide to combat the effects of the pandemic had mitigated the worst of economic the fall-out from the disease. However, another effect of monetary stimulus is rising asset prices, most evident since the fourth quarter of last year in rising prices of stocks, commodities etc.
As the vaccine led economic recovery continued to pan out, supply chains have restarted but continued to meet bottlenecks, inefficiencies and disruptions after a near complete shutdown. The Asia benzene market faces a similar backdrop but several other factors contributed to its price uptrend as well.
SE Asia plants unplanned shutdowns in February: PTT No.1 aromatics in Thailand, Nghi Son Refinery & Petrochemical in Vietnam and Hengyi Petrochemical in Brunei
Strong import demand from China as plants/factories resume production quicker than previous years as output rate was higher with more workers available, given the central government’s urging of citizens to refrain from travelling back to hometowns for the Lunar New Year in a bid to contain the spread of the conronavirus.
Strong downstream markets and sectors in China fueled consumption of benzene.
Cold snap/polar storm in the US cut availability, resulting in higher US prices. Given that Asia is a net exporter of benzene to the US, prices in the region similarly rose and effectively shutting down the arbitrage window for now.
After a spectacular run-up, prices could trade sideways or even correct downwards in the near term. The consolidation could last weeks or even extend into the second quarter.
However, with an inflation bias build into the global system, and the vaccine-led recovery expect to continue, petrochemicals and benzene could start another leg higher from mid-year if not sooner.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)— Acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) markets are seeing supply tighten all around the world, while capacity expansions continue to be limited. In addition, polar storms in the US have affected ABS and styrene production, resulting in force majeures and significant supply chain disruptions.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Senior Editor John Donnelly (US Styrene and ABS), Markets Reporter Stephanie Wix (Europe ABS), Markets Reporter Cheng Ran (Chinese domestic ABS), Markets Analyst Jimmy Zhang (Asia Styrene and ABS forecast), and Markets Reporter Julia Tan (Asia-Pacific ABS) have come together to share their regional insights.
Head of Market Reporting, Barbara Ortner, and Markets Editor, Fergus Jensen, discuss the impact of the record price increase for the Europe March styrene contract price.
The tightness of the European styrene market is reflected in both the contract and spot markets, driven by major plant outages in both Europe and the US.
The styrene monthly contract price plays a key role in determining the health of the whole styrenics chain, but is there a limit to how well the derivatives can absorb these upstream hikes?
Have styrene spot prices peaked, or is there more of this to come? As US chemical plants begin the process of restarting after the polar storm, how soon will the increase in supply be felt in the European styrene market?
The chemical industry is under intense pressure to ramp up recycling but is being held back by technology, poor collection and inertia over commitment to major investments.
- Mechanical recycling present in Europe for more than 20 years
- 46m tonnes/year of mechanical recycling capacity in Europe (PET, PP, PE)
- 21m tonnes/year mechanical recycling capacity in Asia
- Chemical recycling has not yet made a big impact on the market
- Around 200 chemical recycling projects on ICIS database
- Mainly under 10,000 tonnes/year and in Europe, North America
- 5-10 years before they reach commercial scale
- Europe PET bottle market used only 15% of recycled feedstock in 2019
- By 2025 this must rise to 25% to meet EU target
- 5-15% recycled feedstock penetration for Europe polyolefins for packaging
- Chemical recycling may be more carbon intensive than virgin production
- Industry must accelerate recycling or face product substitution by brand owners
- Asia accounts for most ocean plastic pollution but has poor collection infrastructure
- Entire supply chains should take responsibility for collection/recycling
- Industry faces more taxation on plastic waste
- Blockchain could be used to process data on plastic use and recycling
Register for a free ICIS Asia recycling webinar on Wednesday 3 March https://bit.ly/3kxnGLa
European PE/PP editor, Linda Naylor and Africa and Turkey polymers editor, Ben Lake, look ahead at what could be an historic month for the plastics market.
Prices are breaking records all over the world and March look likely to maintain the uptrend.
Linda and Ben discuss what got us to this situation and how sustainable this surge in prices is.
Global monoethylene glycol (MEG) markets deal with fallout from US storms in February, causing all US glycol suppliers to declare force majeure. Asia prices increase to the highest level in over two years, European concerns over March and April imports mount.
Melissa Hurley talks to Cindy Qiu, Judith Wang and Antoinette Smith.
- Asia MEG rises by over 5% on short supply, strong buying
- China import volumes limited in March
- US supply nowhere to be found as all glycol suppliers declare fore majeure
- US domestic MEG demand still going strong
- Water treatment plants shut for over a week, driving bottled water demand
MEG is primarily used in the production of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle resins, polyester fibres and films. MEG is also used in the production of automotive anti-freeze and coolants.
Limited availability of feedstock propylene, strong downstream demand and force majeures from BASF and Sasol have resulted in tight supply and sustained pressure on prices across the oxo-alcohols markets
Rising costs and short feedstock supply have passed pressure down to n-butanol (NBA) derivative markets, with prices for multiple products reaching the highest levels since ICIS records began.
Butyl acetate (butac) editor and oxo-alcohols covering editor Nick Cleeve discusses the impact of these constraints with acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers editor Eashani Chavda
SINGAPORE (ICIS)-- Global Bisphenol-A (BPA) markets are facing a supply crunch, exacerbated by unprecedented plant shutdowns. Just this week, Hexion has declared a force majeure for both their Pernis and Deer Park BPA facilities.
In this episode of the ICIS Podcast, Markets Reporter Julia Tan, the editor of the ICIS Asia-Pacific BPA Report speaks with Senior Editor Heidi Finch, the editor of the ICIS Europe BPA Report, to discuss current supply conditions for BPA as well as the possibility of arbitrage from Asia to the West.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)— The recent spate of outages in the US brought about by the winter storm has disrupted supply for a host of commodities, leading to a surge in polypropylene (PP) prices. Even though US is not a major PP exporter to Asia, tight supply conditions and new disruptions there have resulted in a greater demand pull for Asian and Middle Eastern PP cargoes.
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Senior Editor Manager Veena Pathare, editor in charge of the Middle East and south Asian PP markets speaks with Senior Consultant John Richardson on the recent supply and demand trends in PP.
• Unplanned production losses in the US may tighten supply further
• Shortage in container availability persists contributing to high freight rates
• PP demand remains robust in the backdrop of the pandemic
The US Gulf Coast storm impact could be worse than Hurricane Harvey, and cause a global supply crunch for major chemical product groups.
- Polar storm impact could be worse than Hurricane Harvey
- 100% of US capacity knocked out for major commodities
- Polar storm on top of shipping container, semi-conductor disruption
- Supply was already tight in some value chains
- Middle East and South Korea may replace lost US supplies
- Big question over real demand in China
- Globally, pandemic-related stockpiling may mask underlying poor demand
- Global supply chains not fit for purpose
- Brexit disruption will get worse when UK starts to enforce border controls
- Expect big drop in China 2021 net imports of polypropylene (PP), ethylene glycols (EG), paraxylene (PX), styrene
- China self-sufficiency means producers elsewhere may have to close capacity
Asia's styrene monomer (SM) prices have risen by almost 20% on the back of tightened supply outside of China, following unexpected production disruptions due to natural disasters ahead of the scheduled turnaround season in NE Asia, and improved buying sentiment as a result.
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Senior Editor Jasmine Khoo speaks with Trixie Yap, editor in charge of the Asia-Pacific Styrene Monomer market on the recent development.
- Firm buying sentiment emerge on even tighter supply outside of China
- Sufficient Chinese may balance out unexpected production losses in the West
- End-user demand volumes to hinge on downstream production spreads
Sylvia Traganida speaks to Senior Editor Andy Hemphill on the annual supply agreements agreed between Belarus Potash Company and its Indian and Chinese buyers – and what it could mean for the global potash trade.
Arabian Gulf petrochemical companies are committed to pursuing a low carbon future whilst battling the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and increasing self-sufficiency in China, according to the Gulf Petrochemical Association.
- Transition to a low carbon future presents opportunities for GCC chemicals
- Region is committed to boost recycling plus new, greener technologies
- GCC chemicals managed to grow volumes in 2020, despite the pandemic
- But 2020 sales projected to fall 20-24% to around $52bn
- Supply chain disruption in Q1, Q2 as China closed ports
- GCC trading volumes fell 9.2% in 2020, though global chemical trade fell 20%
- $72bn in planned projects due to be commissioned 2020-2024
- Planned projects may be delayed until chemical demand completely recovers
- Chemical volumes, sales expected to rebound in 2021
- Packaging expected to perform strongly
- China will become more self-sufficient in paraxylene (PX), ethylene glycol (EG), styrene and polypropylene (PP)
Senior editors Nel Weddle and Linda Naylor exchange views on the current ethylene, propylene, and polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) markets in Europe.
Senior editors Caroline Murray and Matt Tudball discuss the causes behind the surging virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices, and how this has directly impacted recycled PET (R-PET) prices, supply and demand, as well as the industries’ views and expectations for this year’s bottling season amid the on-doing pandemic.
The US Department of agriculture (USDA) has published its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report which has not adjusted yield or production estimates, but showed expectations for higher exports and lower ending stocks. Senior editor Mark Milam explains its impact on the domestic fertilizer market.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Asia’s phenol and acetone prices have been supported by snug supply, arising from turnarounds and reduced production across Asia, Europe and the US.
In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, Senior Editor Jasmine Khoo speaks with Angeline Soh, editor in charge of the Asia-Pacific Acetone and Phenol Reports on the recent development.
- Consecutive turnarounds and reduced production in major regions
- Strong consumption from downstream
- India surprised by reversal of ADD on US phenol imports
Global monoethylene glycol (MEG) tightness remains a key issue across regions. European Editor Melissa Hurley discusses the outlook in Asia with Editor Judith Wang and Cindy Qiu. US Editor, Antoinette Smith also joins to discuss how outages could prolong tightness into Spring.
Asia MEG prices rise to 16-month peak
Heavy turnaround schedule in the Middle East
East China MEG inventories rise 4.4% to 681,000 tonnes
Quicker Lunar New Year demand recovery due to less travel
European short-term supply eases; spot-stable-to-soft
US supply DEG spot supply remains sold out; MEG
Outages could extend tight US MEG supply into spring
The climate change agenda means that no new steam crackers will be built beyond 2030 as the chemical industry harnesses new technologies and investors steer clear of high carbon projects.
- No new steam crackers will be built from 2030
- Decarbonisation, sustainability will drive future investment decisions
- Chemical companies will harness new technologies like green hydrogen, electric furnaces
- Oil companies, governments will drive change
- Smart phone market highlights how chemical companies must focus on consumers, not feedstocks
- Coronavirus makes oil refinery rationalisation more urgent
- Conversion to biofuels, recycling will alter feedstock mix for chemicals
The settlement of the phosphoric acid Q1 contract price in India has rounded off a week of bullishness in the phosphates market. Tight supply has pushed up prices in the US and Brazil among others. Senior phosphates editor Sylvia Traganida talks to Deepika Thapliyal and explains the latest developments in the market.
The Europe benzene February price settled lower, while demand in the downstream caprolactam and nylon markets remains strong. Listen to Deputy Managing Editor, Helena Strathearn and Senior Editor, Marta Fern, discuss the downstream reaction to the February benzene settlement.
February is likely to prove a tumultuous month in the polymers market, with supply-side sentiment firming strongly but buyers are eager to limit any potential price upswing.
Supply and demand is complicated by logistics hurdles and shortness while the absence of buying interest in China makes the outcome of discussions difficult to predict.
Join European PE/PP editor Linda Naylor and African and Turkey PE/PP editor, Ben Lake, discussing the latest developments and potential outcomes for February and beyond.
Chemical companies need to take the circular economy more seriously and invest hundreds rather than tens of millions in recycling.
- Investors now seek companies active in circular economy
- Risk that brand owners may seize initiative from chemical companies
- Chemical companies need to step up circular investments
- 2021 could be the year of circular economy ahead of COP26 meeting in November
- China chemicals threatened by persistent shortage of containers, soaring rates
- Electricity shortage, resurgent pandemic, microchip shortage also pose risks
- China will move towards self-sufficiency in paraxylene (PX), styrene (SM) and polypropylene (PP)
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--2020 could be summed up as a topsy-turvy year for the base oils industry. The slump in Asian base oils prices in Q2 last year due to lockdowns followed by the rapid recovery in prices to even higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019 has astounded market players.
In this episode of ICIS Asia podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with Matthew Chong, editor for the ICIS Asia Base Oils reports on the recent developments in the regional market.
The Europe bisphenol A (BPA) market remains firm and tight, while the China BPA market is rebounding, ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays
• China market buoyant ahead of Lunar New Year holiday
• China spot liquidity to slow typically during Lunar New Year
• Europe stocks remain low, on limited Asian imports, buoyant downstream markets
• China rebound, logistic constraints to continue to impede South Korean export flow to Europe
• Hexion lifts force majeure on BPA and epoxy at Pernis site
Podcast interview with Heidi Finch in London and Julia Tan in Singapore.
The global polyethylene terephthalate (PET) industry continues to experience severe disruptions caused by high freight costs and a lingering container shortage.
- Most Asia loadings not expected before March
- Container freight costs from Asia more than triple in a year
- Europe short as customers replace and replenish stocks
- Ripple effect through value chain, on upstream PTA
- Inventories low across the Americas and Europe
- US domestic PET becomes more competitive than imports
- Higher freight costs render LatAm PET expensive
Interview with Senior Editor Caroline Murray, Senior Editor Hazel Goh and Markets Editor Luly Stephens.
Toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) markets reporter Zubair Adam, outlines the key supply and demand conditions expected for 2021 in Europe.
European melamine editor Melissa Hurley is joined by Senior Editor Manager, Joson Ng and US Markets Reporter, Deniz Koray to discuss logistical issues, increased production costs and rising Q1 contract prices.
Richard Ewing, Deputy Managing Editor and Deepika Thapliyal, Senior Editor Manager discuss the drivers behind Ammonia and Urea spot price hikes.
- European melamine prices see triple-digit Q1 contract rises
- US melamine prices experience one of the highest increases in the past decade, according to ICIS data
- Asia melamine suppliers grapple with the unexpectedly swift rally in urea prices and lower production rates due to natural as cuts in China
- Surging international ammonia prices; strong import demand from China
Original publishing date 20 January 2021
The global acrylonitrile (ACN) market is set to remain tight in Q1, though uncertainties loom regarding the Chinese New Year and how demand will pan out across the regions. In this podcast, ICIS pricing editors Jane Massingham (Europe), Li Li Chng (Asia) and Lucas Hall (US) discuss the latest market developments and analyse what is in store for the ACN players.
Original publishing date 14 January 2021
European oxo-alcohols prices have started 2021 on a strong foot as supply is expected to remain tight until at least the end of the first quarter.
In this podcast, ICIS European pricing editors Jane Massingham (oxo-alcohols), Eashani Chavda (glycol ethers), Nick Cleeve (butyl acetate, butac), and Mathew Jolin-Beech (acrylate esters) analyse what is in store for the market.
Original publishing date 25 November 2020
The global acrylonitrile (ACN) markets continue to be driven by supply limitations and healthy demand in some key sectors, as discussed by editors Jane Massingham in Europe, Lucas Hall in the US and Li Li Chng in Asia.
- Disruption to production in all three regions
- Demand healthiest for acrylic fibre and ABS
- Support expected through to Q1
Original publishing date 9 November 2020
Cameron Birch, editor of the European refinery solvents report discusses feedstocks markets and the market picture for refinery solvents with Shruti Salwan, editor of the naphtha, jet kerosene and gasoline reports in Europe.
Original publishing date 12 November 2018
ICIS polyolefins editor for Europe, Linda Naylor, looks at the factors affecting pricing in November, including the severe situation on the Rhine, and upstream crude and naphtha.
Europe’s chemical sector faces a carbon bill of around €1bn in 2021 amid a ramp up in regulatory measures around the world.
- Europe carbon prices rose from €25/tonne in October 2020 to €35/tonne today
- May increase to €50/tonne as market restructures and tightens
- Chemical industry in Europe faces carbon charge of €1bn in 2021 according to ICIS Carbon Analytics estimates
- Europe’s chemical industry is more exposed, losing free carbon allowances
- Massive investment required to meet tougher carbon reduction targets
- New Europe rules to be decided in 2021 will determine costs for next 10 years
- China has introduced a national carbon trading system
- New US administration is not expected to quickly introduce national carbon controls
- Chemical companies will be starved of investment if they fail to act
- Expect a big shift from global to local supply chains
- Beyond 2030 there may be no more worldscale chemical projects built
- Automotive semiconductor shortage highlights vulnerabilities of global supply chains
ICIS recycling experts give their outlook for trends market trends in 2021.
• Post-pandemic recovery
• Regulation
• Chemical recycling
• Packaging demand for recycled content (primary, secondary, food grade)
• Global developments in circularity
Speakers: Helen McGeough, Matt Tudball & Mark Victory
- US now joins China and Europe in big push on climate change agenda
- Carbon taxes and recycling agenda will transform chemical industry
- US will show renewed global leadership
- Demand for virgin polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) will fall as recycling takes off
- INEOS should therefore scrap its Antwerp ethane cracker project as well as the propylene dehydrogenation (PDH)
- Global supply chains could grind to a halt if China forced into new wave of lockdowns
- UK now suffering from post-Brexit end to frictionless trade
The international urea and nitrates market has started 2021 at a much faster pace than the industry had been expecting, with demand surging and international prices firming as a result. The global pandemic and rising gas costs are contributing to the gains, something that the industry did not experience this time last year. Listen to our industry experts talking about what is truly driving these unexpected market events across these key fertilizer markets.
European domestic and export base oils supply saw constraints for most of 2020 amid the coronavirus restrictions and tightness is likely to continue into the second quarter of 2021, compounded by planned maintenance in the region.
ICIS European export editor Samantha Wright and domestic editor Eashani Chavda talk through expectations for the coming months.
European domestic and export base oils supply saw constraints for most of 2020 amid the coronavirus restrictions and tightness is likely to continue into the second quarter of 2021, compounded by planned maintenance in the region.
ICIS European export editor Samantha Wright and domestic editor Eashani Chavda talk through expectations for the coming months.
- China lockdowns could threaten domestic production
- This would hurt chemical imports and exports of finished goods
- Global container shortage should improve after Chinese New Year in February
- Stellar growth in polyethylene (PE) demand should absorb new China capacity
- Chemical market tightness signals end of commodity downcycle
- Europe manufacturing holding up well so far
- Uncertainty for Q2 and rest of year
ICIS Senior Editors Nel Weddle and Linda Naylor exchange views on the current ethylene, propylene, and polyethylene, polypropylene markets in Europe. Product is tight and prices are high
After the health crisis recedes, the European chemicals industry’s challenges will remain unchanged - sustainability, recycling and how it can achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
The ICIS European news desk analyses what is in store.
ICIS editors Eashani Chavda and Nazif Nazmul discuss market fundamentals and expectations for European methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol. With the winter driving season driving low demand for MTBE this month, demand is expected to improve by Q2 at the earliest.
Meanwhile, supply shortages and healthy demand for Q1 is expected to drive a bullish methanol market.
Softening chemicals demand and prices in China may be an early sign of trouble ahead for the global industry in 2021.
- High inventories, weaker demand for China chemicals
- Falling China prices may signal trouble ahead for recovery
- Strong economic, chemicals recovery in H2 2020
- Paradigm shifts apparent in 2020 will accelerate through 2021
- Includes new demand patterns, supply chains, energy balances, circular economy, advanced manufacturing
- Beware of non-tariff barriers despite Brexit free trade deal
- Customs procedures, rules of origin, Reach UK may all add complexity
Visit https://secureforms.icis.com/ChemicalsForum_January to register for a free ICIS Brexit and chemicals webinar at 10am UK time on Friday 8 January.
LONDON (ICIS)--Tightness in the European oxo-alcohols market continues, with limited feedstock supply of n-butanol (NBA) adding further pressure on its derivatives following BASF's force majeure.
Oxo-alcohols editor Jane Massingham discusses the impact of these constraints on butyl acetate (butac), acrylate esters and glycol ethers with editors Nick Cleeve and Eashani Chavda.
Brexit can be compared to a slow puncture, where future decisions on investment might see the country’s chemical industry and value chains gradually lose out to other places.
- Chemicals may see long-term damage as investment diverted elsewhere
- UK chemicals face complex customs procedures with or without a trade deal in place
- Under no deal tariffs will apply each time a product crosses the border
- For downstream automotive, aerospace this could add significant costs
- Expect more logistical and regulatory challenges such as UK Reach
- Biden administration will give a big boost to climate change, sustainability agenda
- US chemical companies will quickly wake up to this challenge
Podcast interview with Paul Hodges chairman New Normal Consulting; Nigel Davis, ICIS Insight Editor and John Richardson, ICIS senior consultant, Asia.
Europe styrenics are under intense pressure, with tight supply exacerbated by Brexit-related stock-building and logistics problems across the continent.
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Tight supply pressure building in recent months remains key concern for ABS and PS
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Lack of imports coming into Europe for both ABS and PS
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Increased exports taking material out of Europe for ABS and PS
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Coronavirus impact on transport and logistics adds further pressure
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Demand continues stronger than availability in both markets
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PS supply faces further pressure with a force majeure and a maintenance turnaround
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Brexit adding to the struggle for ABS and PS buyers trying to build stock levels
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Tight supply to continue into 2021, particularly for ABS which is likely to be short until end Q1
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Strong ABS demand to continue into 2021, PS demand expected positive for appliances going into 2021, packaging and construction views mixed
ICIS Deputy Managing Editor, Helena Strathearn and Markets Reporter Stephanie Wix look at the current market trends in the styrenics supply chain, including tighter supply for derivatives, particularly acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and polystyrene (PS).
ABS is the largest volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products.
General purpose PS is used in food packaging, disposable utensils, cutleries and various other consumer items. High impact PS is used in consumer electronics and toys while extruded PS is used in the construction industry as insulation.
The European polycarbonate (PC) market continues under pressure in December from tight supply and strong demand. Attractive pricing in Asia is leading to fewer imports while exports of European PC to countries like China increase. In Asia, high prices continue, although there are some signs of market rebalancing in December. Freight delays are dampening demand while supply is improving, as traders try to liquidate cargos ahead of the new year.
New economic forecasts have upgraded prospects for 2021 as the vaccination programme kicks in, but logistics problems could threaten any recovery.
- Economists upgrade expectations for 2021
- But recovery may be held back by logistics challenges
- Spare industrial capacity and higher capital spending may benefit chemicals, economy
- Don’t expect business as usual to return
- Thousands of businesses have closed permanently, unemployment is high
- Consumer spending has changed, permanently
- Chemicals must pivot to local sourcing, production, recycling
- Brexit uncertainty is hurting business
The news that ExxonMobil will write down up to $20bn in asset values shows that the era of fossil fuels is drawing to a close, so chemical companies must focus on completely new strategies for long-term success.
- ExxonMobil write downs signal the end of reliance on fossil fuels
- Companies need to understand demand trends on a micro basis
- Four key megatrends for chemicals strategies are pandemic, sustainability, demographics, geopolitics
- Chemical return on capital employed is falling as over-capacity increases
- China self-sufficiency in chemicals will force plant closures, moves downstream
- With or without a deal, Brexit is a disaster for UK industry
- Boston Consulting Group analysis shows Jan-June 2020 chemicals Total Shareholder Return (TSR) was -11% driven by falling sales and profits
- By 2021 expect significant bounceback to 2019 levels driven by prices and volumes
- Chemical companies must analyse role in circular economy/sustainability agenda
Podcast interview with Andreas Gocke, managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group; Nigel Davis, ICIS Insight Editor; Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting and John Richardson, ICIS senior consultant for Asia.
Europe and Asian BPA markets are spiking, amid short supply and rebounding demand.
- Supply restricted in Asia and Europe, exacerbated by LG’s Yeosu outage
- Prices soaring in Asia, Europe following similar trend
- Supply to remain short in the near term on rebounding demand, low stocks
- LG's ops status, ZPC's new China BPA plant start-up progress monitored
Senior Editor Caroline Murray and Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball discuss how the current high freight costs, together with the uncertainty of coronavirus, is impacting the short-term outlook for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET. They discuss:
The current uptrend in virgin PET prices and the impact on R-PET
Supply, demand and turnarounds in PET impact supply
Brexit, virgin plastics taxes in Italy and Spain, and the €800/tonne EU Charge on non-recycled plastic waste
Following a surge in European base oils Group I spot prices, ICIS editors Samantha Wright and Eashani Chavda discuss the latest market developments for the domestic and export markets as well expectations for December.
Manufacturing hundreds of millions of coronavirus vaccine shots could boost demand for polypropylene (PP), but not enough to compensate for losses in other end use markets.
- Coronavirus vaccine packaging may boost demand for polypropylene (PP)
- But not enough to replace lost demand from other end uses
- Refinery closures will restrict petrochemical feedstocks
- End use markets shifting to renewables, low carbon technologies
- Danger that fiscal tightening could stifle recovery, raise unemployment
- Current wave of lockdowns not as damaging to economies
- Lack of visibility on demand patterns beyond Q4
Podcast interview with Rhian O’Connor, ICIS lead analyst for demand modelling and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.
As year-end looms, trading activity in the global sulphuric acid market has picked up pace. Sylvia Traganida talks to Andy Hemphill and Annalise Porter about the latest market news.
Epoxy markets in Europe and Asia are in turmoil, with outages hitting supply amid a rebound in demand.
- Europe and Asia face epoxy supply shocks on unexpected issues, demand rebound
- Epoxy prices rising rapidly in Asia and Europe, varied rises in Europe, depending on timing
- BPA tightness and rising costs are an additional pressure for epoxy resins
- Asia/Europe epoxy supply tightness could continue into 2021
Podcast interview with ICIS senior editor Heidi Finch and ICIS editor Ai Teng Lim.
European and US methanol market dynamics continue to follow a similar trend, with healthy demand recovery amid tighter supply boosting spot prices.
ICIS editors Anna Matherne and Eashani Chavda discuss recent market developments and key topics to look out for in 2021.
A newly formed free trade bloc, containing almost one third of the global economy, will push developing economies together at the expense of the US and its allies.
- Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed by China, 10 Southeast Asian countries, plus South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
- Aims to eliminate tariffs and simplify Rules of Origin
- Developing economy bloc may become self-sufficient
- US, Europe chemicals left with slow/zero growth markets
- ICIS data shows chemical industry upswing towards year-end
- China’s economy is powering global chemicals into positive 2020 growth
Snug supply of oxo-alcohols is influencing derivative markets, with limited supply of feedstock n-butanol (NBA) putting pressure on pricing for downstream butyl acrylate (BA) and butyl acetate (butac).
Oxo-alcohols editor Jane Massingham discusses conditions on these markets and their derivatives with acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech, glycol ethers editor Eashani Chavda and butac editor Nick Cleeve.
Pandemic-driven changes to chemical market demand patterns will become permanent, despite the development of an effective vaccine.
- Chemical market shifts will persist, despite vaccine
- Industry is moving from supply-driven to demand-led
- Developing world will struggle to access vaccine, take years to recover
- China enjoys a surge in exports, strong recovery
- Joe Biden likely to end trade war, remove chemicals tariffs
- New US president will push low carbon transport, energy
As the next wave of Europe lockdowns hits economic activity, there is a danger that demand for chemicals from some end use segments may slump, but perhaps less than earlier in 2020.
- Slowdown in demand towards year end possible
- Demand for durable goods good in Q3, this could continue
- Demand into service sector will be poor
- Danger staff shortages could impact supply chains, chemical production
- China high density polyethylene (HDPE) capacity forecast to rise 26% in 2021
- China demand for polyethylene (PE) rose 10% year-on-year January-September
Listen to this ICIS podcast with ICIS Insight Editor, Nigel Davis and ICIS senior consultant, Asia, John Richardson.
Whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the US election, inexorable market forces will push the US away from fossil fuels and towards adoption of low carbon technologies.
- Market forces are more powerful than presidents
- Market forces will force switch away from fossil fuels to recycled feedstocks
- Biden likely to push solar, wind, electrification of transport
- Biden unlikely to reverse Trump’s China trade tariffs
- Fundamental shift in US-China relations unlikely to reverse
- Signing back up to Iran nuclear deal would increase oil and chemical supply
Listen to this podcast interview with ICIS Chemical Business deputy editor, Joseph Chang; and chairman of New Normal Consulting, Paul Hodges.
Interview by Will Beacham
LONDON (ICIS)--A fresh round of lockdowns across European nations amid resurgence in coronavirus cases is keeping demand-side fundamentals subdued in the regional gasoline market.
• Ample availability is likely to keep cash premiums under pressure
• Length to accumulate approaching winters, growing restrictions
• Reduced refinery run rates insufficient for the current gloomy picture
• Eyes remain on Transatlantic and West African arbitrage opportunities
• Outlook to remain bearish for the remaining year amid weakening crude oil futures, limiting exports opportunity and fragile demand recovery
Listen to this podcast interview with ICIS market experts Shruti Salwan and Nazif Nazmul.
Global urea prices are seen as stable for the next few weeks with India absorbing 2.2m tonnes of excess supply in the market. The question now is what happens next. ICIS editors Julia Meehan and Deepika Thapliyal discuss the medium term outlook for the market and the factors that will influence prices in 2020-2021.
China is expected to unveil far-reaching plans which will impact the chemical industry around the world at this week’s Fifth Plenum meeting.
- China could come to dominate global plastics recycling technology
- Could dominate global renewable energy and electric vehicles
- Build global alliance of countries which believe human activity creates climate change
- Big strides in cleaning up China’s environment
- More petrochemical self-sufficiency
- Expansion of Belt and Road initiative
- Rapid action on pandemic, allies to receive vaccines
- Growth of domestic self-sufficiency and poverty reduction
Podcast interview with Paul Hodges, chairman New Normal Consulting; Nigel Davis, ICIS Insight editor and John Richardson, ICIS senior consultant, Asia.
The European Commission’s new Chemical Strategy for Sustainability should help Europe meet the aim of climate neutrality, the head of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) says.
- Legislation should give a push towards climate neutrality goal
- Regionalisation of trade may reduce spread of gold standards like Reach
- ECHA calls for better linking of Reach to other regulations linked to cosmetics and food additives
- ECHA could partner with the industry to help define which chemicals we want for 2050
Listen to this podcast interview with ECHA executive director, Bjorn Hansen.
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) has tightened globally as a result of two new force majeure declarations in Europe, in an already snug situation following worldwide production issues.
Senior Editor Manager Bill Bowen and Senior Editor Chris Barker discuss the potential consequences for the market and the outlook for Q4.
The UK chemical sector and its EU27 trading partners must face up to the reality of severe disruption to trade with or without a free trade deal coming into force.
- With or without a deal, cross-channel trade will be disrupted
- New hurdles will include customs declarations and Rules of Origin
- EU27 customers may stop sourcing from UK
- Brand owners now spending 35-40% of time on redesigning packaging for recyclability
- Danger of switch to other types of packaging if industry does not act fast enough
- Petrochemical sector must shift to recycled feedstocks or face consumer backlash
- As oil refineries close, less conventional feedstocks will be available
LONDON (ICIS)--Tightness in the European propylene oxide (PO) chain has led to demand surges and price increases in its derivatives; polyols, mono propylene glycol (MPG) and propylene glycol ethers.
Listen to ICIS editors Jane Gibson, Fergus Jensen and Eashani Chavda discuss the latest developments in these markets.
Demand for hand sanitisers has added a permanent demand uplift of 60-70,000 tonnes/year to Europe's isopropanol and ethanol markets.
- Hand sanitisers and disinfectants create up to 60-70,000 tonnes/year new demand for IPA in 2020, or 14-16%
- Renewed appeal of IPA versus ethanol as feedstock for these products could boost demand uptick further
- Players eye automotive sector or and phenol/acetone production to gauge IPA imports from Asia into Europe
- Potential for growth on higher IPA grades (cosmetics, biocide, pharma, electronics) in 2021
- Industrial 99% ethanol getting short again due to supply issues
- Could lead to shortages if new wave of pandemic hits
- Ethanol supply - especially in France - may be impacted by poor sugar beet harvest
- Peak demand season for beverage 96% ethanol and good demand from bioethanol fuel may impact industrial 99%
- Ethanol imports may ease industrial 99% shortages
Listen to this podcast interview with ICIS market experts Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela and Nazif Nazmul.
How to capture growth from sustainability amid rapid changes to end use markets and the energy mix topped the agenda at this year’s virtual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting.
- Industry must change rapidly to meet need for low carbon, sustainable Europe
- With oil refineries closing, less naphtha availability may drive recycling
- Coronavirus has accelerated existing paradigm shifts
- BASF’s troubles reflect industry situation in Europe
- Polyethylene (PE) demand could fall rapidly if furlough schemes cut
Listen to this podcast with Caroline Ciuciu CEO, EPCA; John Richardson, ICIS senior consultant, Asia;
Paul Hodges, chairman New Normal Consulting and ICIS Insight editor, Nigel Davis.
European oxo-alcohols editor Jane Massingham discusses the mixed demand outlook for the market and its downstream derivatives glycol ethers, butyl acetate (butac) and acrylate esters with Eashani Chavda, Nick Cleeve and Mathew Jolin-Beech.
The European Commission is about to launch a major revision to the Reach chemicals regulation which, amongst 70 new measures, could see entire classes of substances being banned.
- Root and branch reform of Reach launches 14 October
- Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability to include 70 regulatory or legal measures
- More hazard-based or generic assessment of risk
- Will ban groups of substances rather than individual substances
- Will impact trade flows for EU imports
- 2-3 years from then will come into effect, rest of decade to implement
- Risks putting Europe at a disadvantage to other regions
- Revision to Reach comes on top of pressures from Covid-19, Brexit
- Recovery for Europe chemicals could take 1-2 years
- Law for climate neutrality by 2050 is an added pressure
- Europe Green Deal & recovery plan offer opportunities for chemicals
Listen to this podcast interview with Marco Mensink, director general at Europe chemicals trade group Cefic.
Turkey and Africa polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) reports editor Ben Lake discusses market conditions and global trade flows with European PE and PP editor Linda Naylor.
The pandemic is pushing Europe’s petrochemical sector in new directions, but with a more flexible approach the industry can emerge stronger for long-term success.
- Very limited visibility means maximum flexibility required
- End use markets behaving in new and unusual ways
- Pandemic has accelerated pre-existing trends
- Europe faces new trends such as energy abundance, re-shoring of supply chains
- EU Green Deal is a big opportunity for Europe petrochemicals
- Europe will compete with China for dominance in green energy
- Europe could “scrap and build” to transform chemical industry
- Less naphtha supply will drive more recycling
Listen to this podcast interview with European Petrochemical Association president Marc Schuller; Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting, and author of the pH Report; John Richardson, ICIS senior consultant, Asia and ICIS Insight editor, Nigel Davis.
Cameron ROberts chats with Charles Fryer and Angel Fernandez of Tecnon Orbichem, to find out more about market movements in chlor-alkali.
Mixed xylenes (MX) and toluene reports editor Zubair Adam discusses demand conditions on the European spot market with Nick Cleeve - editor of the downstream paraxylene (PX) and orthoxylene (OX) reports.
China’s economic recovery may be frail as it relies on surging exports rather than weaker domestic demand.
- China’s economic bounce back may be on shaky foundations
- China market sentiment, prices influence developing economies
- Pandemic impact on emerging economies could hurt global polymer demand growth
- Turkey and Africa polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets steered by China
- Risk of global depression, social unrest with imposition of more strict lockdowns
Refineries and downstream petrochemical plants in Europe could close in the next 12-18 months as demand for transport fuels fails to recover.
- 1-2 refineries may close in ARA in next 12-18 months through lack of demand for transport fuels
- Downstream chemical plants will also close
- Switch to electric and autonomous vehicles will drive changes in the chemicals mix
- China could become global leader in plastics recycling in 5-10 years
- China’s demand for chemicals imports will fall if recycling takes off
- China now dominates solar industry and could do the same for recycling technology
- World Economic Forum says chemical industry can “build back better” after pandemic
- Industry about to move beyond oil and petrochemicals
- Chemical majors should invest more in chemical technology start-ups
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report earlier this month.
In the latest ICIS podcast, US senior editor Mark Milam discusses the recent release of the report, the revisions that the USDA has made to its expectations for the key crops, and how those developments could impact the domestic fertilizer market going forward.