Turkey Abroad: Recent Episodes
Ahval
Azerbaijan and Iran have become locked in a war of words after they held competing military drills next to their common border. Any sharp military escalation risks drawing in Turkey, Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), said in comments during the latest episode of Ahval’s Turkey Abroad podcast.
The United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan may have shifted geopolitical calculations in the Middle Eat, enhancing uncertainty and a power vacuum across the region.
But the U.S. pullout could have the unexpected side effect of helping to get two regional foes to reconsider their differences - Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), said Caroline Rose, a program head at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington D.C.
Now that the United States has completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, Turkey has been among the regional players scrambling to understand the new geopolitical landscape. For whatever concerns Ankara has about instability in a post-U.S. Afghanistan, it also sees room to maneuver as part of a long game with strategic benefits waiting to be reaped.
Dr. Kamran Bokhari, the director of analytical development at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington D.C, told Ahval News in a recent podcast that the current vacuum has Washington still looking for a means to maintain some access to Afghanistan. To that end, Turkey is still ready to lend its assistance.
A new system of alliances may be shaking shape that stretches from India to Greece that threatens to leave Turkey out in the diplomatic cold. Mohammed Soliman, a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington D.C. contends that Turkey’s own aggression in recent years has pushed these countries into a closer alignment.
“Erdogan’s Turkey in terms of foreign policy moved from a zero enemies foreign policy to a zero friends over the last few years,” Soliman explained to Ahval News in a recent podcast.
An anti-Syrian rampage by angry residents in the Ankara suburb of Altındağ on Wednesday is a latest sign that Turkey may be approaching a dangerous social tipping point.
The incident reflects poor policy decisions worsened by hyperpolarised politics and a struggling economy, Cevdet Acu, a Ph.D candidate at the University of Exeter and an expert on migration in Turkey, said in a podcast.
With the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan nearing its completion, Turkey is preparing to step into the gap and may find support from a surprising partner; India. Nayanima Basu, the diplomacy editor for online newspaper ThePrint, explained to Ahval News that for all their disagreements in recent years, India welcomes a Turkish role in a post-war Afghanistan.
“India realises the role Turkey wants to play and has played in Afghanistan,” Bosu told Ahval in a recent podcast. She said that for India, a Turkish role after the U.S. exit is in fact considered something of a welcome move in New Delhi.
International abductions conducted by Turkey’s security services should draw more concern from its Western partners than it is currently receiving, said Serdar San, an Ph.D candidate at the University of Toronto and a researcher on transnational repression.
San, who wrote an article examining Turkey’s practice of using covert methods that include outright kidnapping opponents in other countries, has grown increasingly aggressive under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish allies in NATO and the European Union should regard this practice with more concern.
In a recent podcast with Ahval News, San walked through a series of incidents in recent years where pro-government proxies or Turkish agents themselves took bold operations in the heart of the West aimed at Ankara’s perceived enemies. These include a failed kidnapping attempt of a Turkish businessman in Switzerland, a thwarted assassination attempt against a sitting member of Austria’s parliament, and a recent assault against journalist Erk Acarer outside his home in Berlin.
Turkey is risking the start of a new intra-Kurdish conflict in northern Iraq by pushing the regional government to deepen its involvement in Ankara’s campaign against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), pro-Kurdish activist Sarah Glynn told Ahval News in a recent podcast. Glynn, who recently wrote that Turkey risked pushing Iraqi Kurdistan towards a civil war in an article for Open Democracy, believes that this desire is not an implausible one because it would be the only party to benefit. Using its deepening ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), local peshmerga units have clashed heavily in the last year with PKK militants who have long operated out of Iraq’s mountainous north.
Turkey’s ruling coalition has embarked on a campaign against the country’s LGBTQ community in a bid to fracture its political opposition. Tünay Altay, a researcher and doctoral candidate at Humboldt University of Berlin in Germany, believes that by embracing “political homophobia” , the so-called People’s Alliance is betting they are picking a fight they are confident they can win.
Altay explained to Ahval News in a recent podcast that the decision to target Turkey’s LGBTQ community, or other groups that are stigmatised by the current government, is a common tactic chosen when faced with concerns about their unpopularity.
United States President Joe Biden arrived at his first NATO summit on Monday to make the case for the alliance to reinvigorate the democratic values of its member states. Rachel Ellehuus, who is the deputy director and senior fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington D.C, said Turkey is among the NATO members now who present a challenge to protecting these core values and it has company.
“Turkey is not alone” within NATO as a member who has steadily retreated from the democratic values that underpin the alliance, said Ellehuus to Ahval News in a recent podcast. Members, including Poland and Hungary, have traveled along a similar authoritarian path as Turkey while others like Greece are of concern in some areas.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at long last met face to face with U.S President Joe Biden in the hopes of ironing out longstanding disagreements. Unfortunately for him, a limited meeting on the sidelines of a NATO summit was doomed to be limited in what it could achieve, said Aykan Erdemir, senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundations for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington D.C. “The vast structural disagreements in U.S-Turkish relations are too vast to be solved on the sidelines of a NATO summit,” Erdemir told Ahval News in a recent podcast.
Turkey has been selected to serve as the host for this year’s meeting of the International Criminal Police Organisation, popularly known as Interpol, a move that surprises many because of its troubled track-record with the agency. On June 3, it was announced that Interpol’s 89th General Assembly meeting would be held in Istanbul from Nov. 20 to 25. Turkish officials praised the selection for what they say is an opportunity to develop a more constructive relationship with the agency. Yuriy Nemets, an attorney in Washington D.C and an expert on Interpol, however considers Interpol’s choice of Turkey to be questionable because of their difficult relationship over the years.
Exiled Turkish mafia boss Sedat Peker has for weeks rocked Turkey with videos, detailing sordid dealings he claims knowledge of and the government officials he says orchestrated them.
In his eighth video on May 30, Peker turned his attention to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after carefully avoiding any direct mention of the Turkish leader. Peker mentioned a personal history with Erdogan without elaborating but promised to address him directly in a video after June 14.
Marta Ottaviani, a journalist who wrote a book detailing the political rise of Erdogan, said that state-mafia allegations are nothing new in Turkey and are in some ways echoing the responses of his predecessors.
“‘Erdogan tries to present himself as something new in the political arena but behaves in the same way as politicians in the past,” Ottaviani told Ahval News in a recent podcast.
Exiled mafia boss Sedat Peker’s allegations against political elites in Turkey being involved in narcotic trafficking has focused attention on its murky relationship with Venezuela.
Imdat Oner, a policy analyst at Jack D Gordon Institute at Florida International University in Miami, said that from the start of Turkey’s opening to Venezuela in 2018 there were questions about the exact nature of the relationship that remain difficult to answer.
“The lack of transparency in Turkey-Venezuela relations only increases the questions that need to be asked,” Oner told Ahval News in a recent podcast.
Turkey’s attempts to fix its once strong ties with Israel have been sent back to square one following violence between Israeli security forces and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey loudly condemned the Israeli actions on May 9 when he described Israel as a “cruel terrorist state”. Outrage from Turkey intensified after Israel launched Operation Guardian of the Walls, an air campaign over the Gaza Strip that targeted Hamas militants but cost 256 Palestinian civilians their lives and left 13 Israeli citizens dead.
After the harsh remarks from Turkey, prospects for reconciliation with Israel appear slim and it remains an open question if Ankara will continue making overtures. Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, said that she would not consider the process dead, but “seriously delayed” for now.
The accusations from exiled Turkish mobster Sedat Peker that allege connections between Turkey’s ruling elite and organized crime reveal a steady decay in the credibility of the state to many Turks.
Peker, who released an eighth video on Sunday that accused the government of organising arms deliveries to extremists in Syria, has drawn the ire of high-ranking officials. This includes Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, former prime minister Binali Yildirim and more recently President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself.
After the release of his seventh video where Peker alleged a state connection to drug trafficking from Venezuela, Turkey Abroad spoke to Dr. Yektan Turkyilmaz, who said stories of state-mafia collusion in Turkey are not new, but Peker’s are at a new level.
“I do not think we can compare it to anything that came before,” Turkyilmaz, a senior fellow at EUME fellow at the Forum Transregionale Studien in Berlin, told Turkey Abroad.
Hungary has been a consistent partner for Turkey in its dealings with the European Union (EU) and now it has assumed the presidency of the Council of Europe (CoE).
On May 21, Hungary began its term as the rotating president of the continent-wide bloc. Hungary’s assumption of the seat has drawn early caution from activists and even fellow EU member states who are mindful of its growing illiberalism at home. Its prime minister, Viktor Orban, is the poster-child for this authoritarian leaning brand of politics that relies on equal amounts of right-wing populism and a tightening of the political space for any opposition to his rule.
For Turkey, Hungary’s presidency represents the rise of an ideological kinsman within two blocs that have progressively soured on it over the years. Dr. Tamas Szigetvari, senior research fellow at the Institute of World Economics in Budapest, said that the power of the CoE may be more limited than the EU, but it still promises some benefits for Turkey during a podcast.
Turkey and Ukraine are continuing to seek deeper ties even as some of the complications in the relationship slowly surface.
For the last several years, both countries have quietly deepened their relationship through trade, investment and military cooperation. In Ukraine, Turkey finds a ready partner interested in acquiring its much touted military hardware and a foothold for developing a deeper presence in the Black Sea region. For Kyiv, Ankara is an all too eager investor for its still maturing economy and a major power who can help hasten its national development agenda.
The closeness between Turkey and Ukraine has attracted some attention of late amidst last month’s crisis with Russia in the Donbass. Ilya Kusa, an author and analyst of international affairs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv, explained that the flare up in the Donbass showed Turkey was not yet ready to change from a geopolitical bystander to participant in that conflict.
President Joe Biden is reportedly considering an extraordinary break with his predecessors by officially recognising the Armenian Genocide of 1915 that was perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire. Salpi Ghazarian, director of the Institute of Armenian Studies at the University of Southern California (USC), said that if Biden flipped the script on decades of U.S foreign policy related to the Armenian Genocide, it would be “hugely welcome” and “gratifying”. At the same time, she cautions against putting too much work on the move’s symbolism than what follows it.
Ahmet Altan, the Turkish writer and journalist imprisoned on charges of supporting the failed coup attempt in July 2016, has been released from prison.
On Wednesday, Turkey’ Court of Cassation ordered Althan released from prison, reversing the ruling that he “evoked” the attempted coup and that he be released based on time served. This decision came only one day after the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ordered he be released after it found that he was held on legally dubious grounds in the first place.
While advocates for Turkish civil society cheered his release, some were more cautious. Orhan Kemal Cengiz, a human rights lawyer in Turkey, told Ahval that he was happy to see Altan go home to his family, he had “mixed feelings” about the overall situation.
“On the one hand, I am very happy because him [Altan] being released as a result of the decision of the ECHR, but on the other I am really angry with the court,” Cengiz said to Ahval News in a recent podcast.
Turkey is facing a steep climb as it works to complete development of it’s TF-X fighter jet or risk seeing its air fleet fall into obsolescence.
The TF-X is a proposed fifth generation fighter jet, meaning it would be able to incorporate the latest stealth, sensor and flight technologies to compete on the modern battlefield. Initially announced in 2013, the TF-X programme has been beset by delays from Turkey’s inability to acquire or produce the components needed to bring it into service. It was first expected to test a prototype by 2023, but now it is not expected to be in service until 2029.
Justin Bronk, a research fellow on airpower at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, remarks that Turkey’s the victim of its own ambition of looking to develop the current most advanced form of a fighter aircraft without any prior experience in doing so.
Rebecca Harms, a former member of the European Parliament and current Vice Chair for Centre of European Press and Media Freedom, criticised the EU’s failure to take stronger action over these actions. She noted that she was “astonished” to see the bloc offer Turkey a possible lifeline by offering an update to Customs Union between the two at the last EU summit than seek any concessions from Ankara.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of the geopolitical risk consultancy Gulf State Analytics in Washington D.C, explained that part of the impetus behind Ankara and Riyadh’s rapprochement is the arrival of United States President Joe Biden’s administration.
Investors and analysts alike warn that Turkey could be veering closer to a currency crisis, owing to rising inflation that has chipped away at the lira’s value and upcoming debt payments denominated in foreign currency. Such a scenario spells serious trouble for Erdogan’s government which has seen its approval ratings dip in the last year.
Guldem Atabay, a Turkish economist from the western city of Izmir, says that the country is not yet inside a currency crisis but one’s specter is casting a dark shadow over Turkey’s economy.
“We are not in a currency crisis right now, but definitely it will be in one,” Atabay said in a recent podcast interview with Ahval News.
As Turkey’s government works to shrink the space for dissent against it, artists in the country have come under increased pressure to not antagonise authorities with their work.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice & Development Party (AKP) has shown time and again that it is unwilling to countenance criticism from across civil society.
Artists in Turkey are among the voices currently being suffocated by authorities. According to Freemuse, a nonprofit devoted to protecting artistic expression, released their annual report that detailed the troubles facing Turkey’s artists and the country holds the inglorious honor of being one of Europe’s violators of this right.
“Turkey is part of a wider trend of countries where there is an overall shrinking of alternative expressions that go against those propagated by the authorities,” said Paige Collings, Freemuse’s Global Advocacy and Campaigns Coordinator, in a recent podcast interview with Ahval News.
The Middle East’s Kurdish factions have been conducting meetings in recent weeks to find ways to resolve long-standing differences among themselves. However, they are working from beneath the long shadow cast by Turkey over their discussions as well as their political future.
Several Kurdish factions in Syria met in the city of Qamishli with support from the United States State Department. One Kurdish politician who attended described the conference as taking place in a “positive atmosphere”, but Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), called for all factions to overcome their differences and reach an agreement.
Not everyone was satisfied with this conference. Taking place just before the Qamishli conference were talks between the region’s main faction, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and its rival, the Kurdish National Council (KNC). PYD officials told Syria-based North Press Agency that both parties agreed to reach a solution, but KNC officials conspicuously avoided attending the subsequent conference, signalling that differences remain.
Abdulla Hawez, a researcher and expert on Kurdish politics in London, said that these disagreements cast a dim light on the chances of a political breakthrough but it may require an extra push to do so.
Turkey’s Protestants are facing increased suspicion as part of a threat to national security. Because of this, a stack of arbitrary legal cases has piled up against this tiny community in the predominantly Muslim country.
The Middle East’s Kurdish factions have been conducting meetings in recent weeks to find ways to resolve long-standing differences among themselves. However, they are working from beneath the long shadow cast by Turkey over their discussions as well as their political future.
Several Kurdish factions in Syria met in the city of Qamishli with support from the United States State Department. One Kurdish politician who attended described the conference as taking place in a “positive atmosphere”, but Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), called for all factions to overcome their differences and reach an agreement.
Not everyone was satisfied with this conference. Taking place just before the Qamishli conference were talks between the region’s main faction, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and its rival, the Kurdish National Council (KNC). PYD officials told Syria-based North Press Agency that both parties agreed to reach a solution, but KNC officials conspicuously avoided attending the subsequent conference, signalling that differences remain.
Abdulla Hawez, a researcher and expert on Kurdish politics in London, said that these disagreements cast a dim light on the chances of a political breakthrough but it may require an extra push to do so.
Turkey’s Minister of Defence Hulusi Akar proposed moving the system to a location away from NATO facilities, akin to Greece’s acquiring of the S-300 in the 1990s from Cyprus. However, Akar acknowledged in an interview with Sabah that the U.S has remained dug into its position that the S-400 would have to go and that all negotiations for a second batch have to be halted to remove sanctions. He also noted that he has so far failed to get in touch with his American counterpart, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin.
Dr. Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) in Philadelphia, said that the Biden administration’s approach to Turkey, and in some cases the cold shoulder given to it, is indicative of a new approach that breaks from its predecessor.
“It is clear from the outset that the Biden team has come in and has sought to reset the terms of the Turkish-American relationship from the Trump administration,” explained Stein in a recent podcast interview with Ahval News.
On February 5, the Libya’s warring factions announced that a slate of candidates had been selected to lead the country until December when elections are expected to be held. Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, a Libyan businessman from the western city of Misrata, was named the interim prime minister. Alongside him as interim president will be Mohammad Younes Menfi, Libya’s former ambassador to Greece.
An interim government is still in the process of taking shape, but already foreign powers like Turkey and Russia are waiting to determine their next move.
Ivan Bocharov, a researcher at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) in Moscow said that the crop of candidates selected are political unknowns which lends to a lot of uncertainty as to whether they can succeed in their roles. Bocharov is not optimistic about their ability to win the trust of Libyans .
“I have a fear that the transitional government will not be respected among Libyans,” said Bocharov in a recent podcast with Turkey Abroad.
Last week’s rocket attack on Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital of Erbil was believed to be a message from Iran-backed militias to the United States and Turkey.
On February 15, fourteen rockets struck points across Erbil including residential neighbourhoods and the international airport close to where U.S and coalition forces are based. Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) pledged to identify who was responsible for the attack, despite claims of responsibility from Awliya al-Dam, a known Iranian proxy. The attack underscored how high regional tensions as U.S President Joe Biden looks to re-engage Iran in negotiations over the nuclear deal his predecessor Donald Trump abandoned in 2018.
Tehran may have had its eye on a wider audience with this attack according to Caroline Rose, a senior analyst and head of the Strategic Vacuums Program at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington D.C.
“They’re starting to turn their attention more to the Kurdish region of Iraq, the KRG government, and Turkey,” Rose told Ahval in a recent podcast interview.
Unlike his predecessors, Biden still has yet to speak to Erdogan by phone after a month in office despite overtures from the Turkish side to make one happen. Blaise Misztal, Vice President for Policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) said that this in itself is noteworthy for the message such a cold shoulder conveys, in an interview with Turkey Abroad.
Turkey has struggled for decades at assimilating its minority populations and the reason why has roots going back to its founding in 1923.
The Anatolian peninsula where Turkey is situated has long been a bridge between different peoples from the east and west. Over the centuries, many groups have called different parts of it whole even as the dominant group remains ethnic Turks. However, Turkey has for the last century struggled to treat every citizen within its borders as equal.
Dr. Baskın Oran, an emeritus professor at Ankara University who is an expert on nationalism and minorities in Turkey, described the struggle to fully assimilate non-Turks as distinct in some ways but not in others, during a podcast with Turkey Abroad.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spoken about his desire to turn over a new leaf with Europe, but that might not happen without repairing the damage he’s done to Turkish democracy.
Last November was when Erdogan first showed any openness to improving relations with the European Union (E.U), stating “We see ourselves nowhere else but in Europe.” In a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on January 10, the two discussed improving relations in what the E.U President called a “good exchange.” Among the topics covered according to a readout from Erdogan’s office was a discussion on how to move forward on Turkey’s stalled bid to join the bloc.
Behind any negotiations about improving relations is deep disagreements over the state of Turkish democracy after two decades under Erdogan.
In December, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled that Turkey must release opposition leader Selahattin Demirtas from custody over what it considered politically-motivated terrorism charges. A year earlier, the ECHR also ordered the release of civil society activist Osman Kavala from custody on similar grounds, but Erdogan has refused in both cases to respect either ruling.
Kati Piri, a member of the European Parliament from the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), does not believe that Erdogan should be obliged to his “new leaf” if that means ignoring his continued erosion of human rights in Turkey.
“I do not understand how Ankara thinks it will reset the agenda with the European Union,” Piri tol Ahval in a recent podcast interview. “They know what they have to do in order to reset relations, but I haven’t seen any of that seriously examined in Turkey.”
Turkey is eager to see a revival of the nuclear deal between Iran and the United States as the region adapts to President Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House.
On January 29, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke to this during a press conference alongside his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. He said that Turkey hopes that “with the Biden administration, the United States will return to this agreement and cooperation on the (nuclear) issue is restored.” He added that it was his hope that the “sanctions and embargoes imposed on brotherly Iran are lifted.”
This sentiment sets Turkey apart from its neighbours in the Middle East, such as Israel or Saudi Arabia, said Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, a Berlin-based research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWA).
“Unlike some other countries in the region, Turkey is really in favour of the revival of the nuclear agreement,” Azizi told Ahval in a recent podcast. For Ankara, a return to diplomacy would reduce its insecurity amidst the simmering tensions between its large neighbour and most important NATO ally.
On Tuesday, the U.S State Department expressed concern over Turkish authorities’ response to the protests at Bogazici University, prompting an indirect warning from Turkey's foreign ministry to stay out of Turkish domestic affairs. Going a step further, Turkey’s Interior Minister accused the U.S of involvement in the 2016 coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, something the U.S quickly rejected.
Yaşar Yakış, formerly Turkey’s foreign minister and a former member of the Turkish parliament, explained that this conspiracy is still strong for some in Turkey’s government and that the denials will not make a difference.
“I think there is an entrenched opinion in quarters close to the government in Turkey,” Yakış said in a podcast interview with Turkey Abroad. “This is not something new and not the end of it.”
United States President Joe Biden’s administration has had its first encounter with Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian government only two weeks after taking office.
On Monday, Turkish police descended on the campus of the Bogazici University in Istanbul as they tore through encampments erected by students protesting against the appointment of a pro-government rector as the head of its most prestigious university. According to a statement from the Istanbul Governor’s office, 159 students were arrested on that day alone while another 104 were detained on Tuesday.
Erdogan himself referenced the event after condemning the students as “terrorists” when he told his party on Thursday that Turkey “ will not again live a Gezi event in Taksim.”
While not as large as the 2013 demonstrations, those at Bogazici do bear striking similarities to them, explained Merve Tahiroglu, Turkey Program Coordinator at the Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington DC, in a new podcast with Turkey Abroad.
Turkey’s newly updated law regulating social media achieved its biggest victory last week when Facebook announced it was beginning the process of appointing a representative to handle in-country complaints.
The law, known as Internet Law No. 5651, was amended in late July 2020 by the Turkish parliament. In its revised version, the law required that social media companies with a million or more users in Turkey had to appoint a representative to the country. In the months since the revision was approved, companies including Youtube, VKontakte, TikTok and LinkedIn all announced they would comply with the regulation.
Facebook is the largest firm to declare its intent to comply, prompting an outcry from advocacy groups who saw it as a dangerous contribution to a growing censorship regime in Turkey. Sarah Clarke, the head of U.K based advocacy group Article 19 for Europe and Central Asia, saw the news as a foreboding development for user rights and privacy in the country.
“What we’ve seen is Facebook along with Youtube and a number of social media platforms go against their own commitments to freedom of expression and in effect become an instrument of state censorship,” Clarke told Ahval in a podcast.
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is working to use a new law regulating social media to constrain the remaining space for dissent on the internet.
On July 29, 2020, the Turkish parliament updated its law governing social media known as Internet Law No. 5651 that updated its regulation of social media. The most notorious part of the law requires social media companies to appoint a representative to Turkey who will respond to requests from the authorities to remove or moderate content on their platforms.
Dr. Asli Telli, a research fellow at the University of Siegen, explained that the recent update to Internet Law No. 5651 was simply a continuation of creeping government control over the internet inside Turkey. The defining moment that saw these efforts increase according to Telli was the aftermath of the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016.
“The impact of this on digital rights and freedoms was very costly and devastating for the whole society, especially digital rights defenders and civil society,” Telli told Turkey Abroad.
The vaccination programme began only recently which has fueled a certain amount of frustration from Turks who wonder why Turkey has fallen behind other countries on distributing doses. Right now, Turkey’s vaccination rate per capita is presently lower than its counterparts in the West at 1.4 per 100 people of a population of 82 million.
Haluk Özdalga, a former member of the ruling Justice & Development Party (AKP), described how the Turkish vaccination has been the victim of government mismanagement. “The coronavirus vaccine program has been a complete failure in Turkey,” Özdalga told Turkey Abroad in a recent podcast. “There are not enough doses, delivery time for these doses is too late, and they only have one single company supplying it which has raised many risks.”
Despite reminders from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) that the pandemic is testing governments’ commitment to refugees, Cevdet Acu, a researcher at the University of Exeter, worries that Turkey is not doing enough to rise to this challenge.
“If someone is saying this [we are all in this together, they are ignoring the inequality among the societies, among people,” Acu told Turkey Abroad in a recent podcast. “So based on this reality, we can see that particularly poor people, vulnerable people, in this society are more affected than others. Refugees are one of the more vulnerable groups.”
The January 6 storming of the United States Capitol Building by supporters of President Donald Trump has left the nation shaken. Armed soldiers are now stationed at the nation’s capital to deter any disruption to Biden’s inauguration on January 20 to deter another similar attempt by disgruntled Donald Trump supporters to overturn the November 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, Trump has been impeached for a second time, the first president to hold this distinction, opening another rift within his Republican Party while deepening the mistrust between it and Biden’s Democratic Party.
Worldwide, American allies reacted with horror as the Capitol was ransacked. Some though took the time to indulge in schadenfreude, including Turkey. Politicians associated with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who long disdained what they perceived as unfair criticism from Washington on the state of Turkish democracy, appeared delighted to see its NATO ally receive what they considered its just desserts.
Dr. Aykan Erdemir, senior director of the Turkey Program for the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies (FDD) in Washington D.C, cautioned that last week’s riots may leave a final stain on the U.S. during an interview with Turkey Abroad this week.
Turkish society today is beset by many deep divisions that threaten to make governing the country only more challenging in the future.
Last month, the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) in partnership with the Istanbul Bilgi University Center for Migration Research (BILGI-Migration) shared the latest results of a survey, known as the Dimensions of Polarization in Turkey Survey, measuring how Turkish citizens see each other and Turkey’s politics.
The study portrayed a society that is increasingly divided not just on political affiliation but along social, ethnic and religious lines as well. Dr. Nora Fisher-Onar, a professor at the University of San Francisco and an expert on Turkish political ideologies, in a podcast with Turkey Abroad, warned that if these deepening divisions are left unaddressed, they risk making Turkey less governable over time.
American sanctions on Turkey for its purchase of a missile defence system from Russia was long expected, but not meant to close the door to resolving lingering differences.
On December 14, the United States levied sanctions against Turkey’s Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB) and several top officials for their role in acquiring the Russian system. On the surface, these sanctions appear rather limited in their chosen targets and the impact they may have on the Turkish economy, but a more damaging blow may not have been the intention.
John Parachini, a senior international and defense researcher at the RAND Corporation think tank, suggests that the sanctions placed on Turkey are important but the more meaningful punishment in his view came already.
Uyghurs are China’s largest Muslim minority and are targeted in part for their Islamic identity, but the silence from many Muslim-majority nations against this has been deafening. Turkey, however, has been something of an exception.
Rushan Abbas, the founder and executive director for the Campaign for Uyghurs in Washington D.C, highlighted Turkey’s willingness to call out China’s oppression of Uyghurs as something that placed it ahead of its counterparts in the Muslim world.
“Turkey has always been supportive and President Erdogan has always been very vocal about the Uyghur situation,” Abbas told Ahval in a podcast interview.
On December 11, the European Union (EU) announced that it would be expanding its list of Turkish officials and entities subject to sanctions for Turkey’s drilling activities in waters off the coast of member states Greece and Cyprus. On December 14, the United States declared it would be sanctioning the Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB), its head Ismail Demir and several other executives for the purchase of the S-400 missile defence system from Russia.
Even after two sanctions declarations in the span of a week it remains unclear how much they will contribute to finding any solutions. Dr. Zenonas Tziarras, a researcher at the PRIO Centre’s office in Nicosia, said that these change the state of affairs to some extent but not to the degree many observers expected it would. Tziarras spoke with Turkey's Abroad Nick Morgan for a podcast.
There is reason to be leery of reading too much into these moves as a sign that either Israel or Turkey is ready to return relations to normal. Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel-Aviv suggests that these talks should be viewed as a “trial balloon” to reduce Ankara’s regional isolation amid shifts further away. Lindenstrauss spoke to Turkey Abroad's host Nicholas Morgan.
Wladimir van Wilgenberg, a journalist based in Iraqi Kurdistan who covered the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, told Ahval in a podcast interview that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is always on alert for a new offensive by Turkey and Turkey backed forces. However, that window to act has narrowed now that a new administration under Joe Biden is entering office in the U.S.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of the geopolitical risk consultancy Gulf State Analytics in Washington D.C, said that the recent positive statements from the Saudi Arabia with regards to the relations with Turkey may reflect a desire to tone down tensions ahead of new geopolitical realities setting in. The most urgent one being Joe Biden’s victory over U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration’s impending arrival.
Grey Wolves ban shows Europe waking up to Turkish influence networks - Yektan Türkyılmaz
Dr. Ryan Gingeras, an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey, California, said the Blue Homeland concept is relatively new in Turkish strategic thinking and reflects an ideological position held by several high-ranking officers in the military for years in a new podcast with Nicholas Morgan.
COVID-19 has exacerbated all of Turkey's problems, but many existed before the pandemic hit. Atilla Yeşilada, a country analyst for Turkey for Global Source Partners, tells Ahval's Nicholas Morgan during a podcast that economic mismanagement by the government has only made rescuing the Turkish economy more difficult.
Last Friday, another country in the Persian Gulf announced that it would establish diplomatic relations with Israel, Bahrain. Supported by United States President Donald Trump and coming only a month after the United Arab Emirates announced the same, the three countries are set to meet in Washington D.C to sign declarations of normalization.
The day Bahrain announced its intentions was not over before Turkey expressed its disagreement with the decision just as it had with the Emirates’.
Seth J. Frantzman, the Executive Director at the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis (MECRA), believes that Turkey’s role in Arab states’ decision to align with Israel is overlooked. Frantzman discusses the region, Erdogan and latests from the region with Ahval's Nicholas Morgan.
The presidential election in the United States is now in full-swing and nations around the world are paying close attention. President Donald Trump is considered vulnerable, owing to his administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and race riots through the summer, and his defeat may cause as much of a flip in U.S foreign policy as when he was elected. His Democratic opponent, former vice president Joe Biden, is a familiar face on the international stage from his decades in the U.S Senate and during his tenure as President Obama’s point person on difficult problems abroad.
One country paying close attention to the outcome of this year’s election is Turkey and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Over the last four years, Erdogan has built a strong relationship with President Trump despite the ire directed at him from other elements of the executive branch and the U.S Congress.
Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East spoke to Nicholas Morgan to discuss the U.S. elections from the Turkish angle.