Daniels Trading: Recent Episodes
Daniels Trading
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 375If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastNewly elected libertarian Argentine President Javier Milei’s government is acting quick on campaign promises. Argentina will cut the value of their Peso by 50% as part of their “shock therapy” to try to rescue their failing economic system. Economy Minister Luis Caputo also announced deep cuts to public spending, government agencies, and energy subsidies
The current inflation rate in Argentina is 150%. Debt is spiraling out of control. Previous Arg governments had kept the Peso artificially high and the devaluation should put the Peso closer to it’s real value.
The reason we are talking about this today is the effect it will have on the Grain & Oilseed markets. Arg corn, soybeans, and wheat will all be much more competitive on the export market. Farmers will likely not sell at first, because it will take time for inflation to come down (and might even get worse before it gets better). Milei did not cut export taxes & tariffs on soybeans. He may keep those tariffs and put a tax of 15% on other grains markets. The initial concern was Arg farmers would flood the global ag markets if the peso was devalued, inflation came under control, and the tariffs were lowered. That does not seem to be the case a the moment. The government needs to reign in inflation, cut spending, and keep revenues high, and tariffs on ag exports are a big revenue generator for Argentina to help pay off their massive debts.
We’ll see how the market reacts today to the news in Argentina but weather in S. America and US/Canada export demand likely continue to be the major determining factors for price discovery.
For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 374If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastI’ll be at the Nebraska Ag Expo next week with StoneX at booth #3100. If you are there please come on by and say hello!
The balance sheets for corn and canola are concerning. Wheat may be tight for another five months but a good winter wheat crop in the N. Hemisphere solves a lot of tightness in that market. Soybeans are tight but a decent S. American crop and increased US acres in 2024 means lower prices. Canola has an export demand problem. Crush may increase 1 MMT this year but exports could be down 2 MMT. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 373If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastLower CPI and Core CPI readings have traders excited about the stock market again. Better inflation numbers could lead to the Fed holding rates steady as opposed to a quarter point increase by the end of the year. Crude oil is lower on better US production and lower demand out of China. Natural gas production in the US is robust and temperatures have been unseasonably warm. Oilseeds are leading the CBOT higher due to adverse weather for soybeans in S. America. Spring wheat demand is strong in Canada and the US, but KC wheat production was higher than expected and exports have been lagging. Corn looks to be the dog of the ag markets and can barely muster a rally during dry and scorching hot weather in Brazil. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 372If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates elevated after their meeting on Wednesday but traders are more optimistic for rate cuts in 2024 than they were before the meeting. Stocks have rallied over the past couple of days and the Fed Funds futures are pricing in interest rate cuts starting next summer. Corn is range bound while soybeans is rallying due to weather concerns in C. and N. Brazil. Spring wheat demand is strong in Canada and the US, and keeps MPLS elevated. SRW wheat is competitive on the global market and should be good for continued export demand. The canola crop is likely bigger than what the USDA and Stats Canada previously estimated, and that is weighing on canola futures. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium.
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 370If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe funds are now short corn, wheat, and soybeans. US harvest is nearly 50% complete for corn and soybeans. Canada is wrapping up canola and spring wheat. Demand is poor and fund managers are building short positions in corn, wheat, and now soybeans. If we are going to see a post-harvest rally, N. American grain markets need better export demand for wheat, corn, soybeans, and canola. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium.
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 369If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but they intend to keep rates above 5% through 2024. Mexico is now the US’ largest trading partner, with Canada a very close second. China is a distant third and that is not helping demand for grains and oilseeds. Crude oil continues to rally even in the face of bearish news as supply/demand fundamentals get more bullish. Finally, we talk about harvest pressure and why corn, soybeans, canola, and wheat will have a hard time rallying for the next few weeks. Make sure you take a listen to the week’s Turner’s Take Podcast. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium.
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 356If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastUS Congress has passed the new debt ceiling limit while also making spending cuts. The market should view this as bullish. The hot and dry June forecasts are bullish factors for grain and oilseeds. On the other hand the expansion of new crop ending stocks combined with poor global demand has been bearish. Yields are determined in June and July so the next six to eight weeks are critical to global grain stocks. Short term traders will look to play the weather market but in the long term the path of least resistance is lower as commodity markets usually revert back to the mean. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 355If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe WASDE was bullish high protein wheat (KC and MPLS) and bearish corn/SRW wheat. Soybeans and canola were fairly neutral. In this episode we go over the recent Federal Reserve rate increase and why the market is pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year. We also talk about possible price ranges for the major grain and oilseed markets. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 354If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe CBOT is finding support after two weeks of selling. HRW (KC) Wheat is leading the charge higher. Recent rains in the the western belt did not improve wheat prospects as much as the trade initially thought. The CBOT as a whole was oversold and due for a rally. The May WASDE is next week and the USDA will include new crop supply and demand estimates for the 2023/24 marketing year. The trade has priced in a bearish report for corn and soft red winter wheat (Chicago). Soybeans, hard red winter (KC) and hard red spring (MPLS) could still be tight year-over-year. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 353If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastUS Q1 GDP growth is only 1.1% vs expectations of 2%. Businesses are cutting inventories, jobs, and higher interest rates limit new capital investments. The Fed will meet next week and the market is looking for a quarter point interest rate increase. The poor economic numbers and expectations of a recession should continue to keep energy prices low. The grain and oilseed markets had a bad week with old crop corn leading the way lower. Poor old crop export demand, lower Brazilian prices, Chinese cancellations, and favorable new crop planting weather all contributed to the decline.
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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 352If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastDeeply discounted Brazilian corn and soybeans has led to speculation of imports coming to the US. A few cargos of soybeans are going into the US Southeast due to the high demand for poultry feed. In years of high prices S. American corn/soybeans have been able to make it to the SE when prices pencil. The question is how much will this impact US exports and can enough corn and soybeans make it to the US to ease tight old crop supplies. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 351If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastFavorable Midwest weather is great for new crop corn and soybean planting and pressuring prices to start the week. The dry weather is not good for HRW wheat (KC) as drought conditions worsen. Russia is playing hard ball again in the Black Sea to continue the Grain Export Corridor agreement. The markets should be mixed as we head into the WASDE tomorrow, 4/11 at 11am CT. Historically the April WASDE is not a major report but the USDA is expected to reduced S. America production, which could increase US export demand and therefore reduce US and Major Exporter ending stocks. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 350If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastPlanting intentions were bullish soybeans and spring wheat but bearish for new crop corn. Given 87.5 million acres of new crop soybeans and a trend line yield of 52 bpa, ending stocks stay tight year over year. Spring wheat acres were 10.5 million and I think it needed to be closer to 11 million to help ease prices. Corn was 1 million higher and came in at 92 million. With a trend line yield of 181 bpa, new crop corn ending stocks could expand to 1.9 billion. My big takeaway is soybeans will be very volatile this spring and summer. Old crop soybeans are tight and now new crop looks to be tight too. This should also be supportive for canola. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 349If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThanks to everyone who came by the StoneX booth last week to say high at Commodity Classic in Orlando, FL. This week we talk about the banking crisis and how it effected the grain markets. We also take a look into winter canola in the US and our expectations for the March 30 planting intentions report. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 347If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe grain and oilseed markets may have put in a winter/spring seasonal low this week. The Ag Forum reminded everyone ending stocks will increase year-over-year for many ag markets. S. America crop production losses are mostly priced in with Arg soybeans around 30 MMT and corn at 40 MMT. Seasonality tends to turn bullish for corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola in March, April, May and into June. Our long term view is bearish as commodities tend to revert back to the mean, but we could see some upside during the planting and growing season. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 346If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe Ag Forum leaned bearish for new crop corn with 91 million acres, a 181.5 bpa trend line yield, and nearly a 1.9 billion carryout. That puts stock/usage at 13% and corn in an adequately supplied market. Soybean acres are projected to be 87.5 million, with a 52 bpa and 290mm bushel carryout. That puts stock/usage at 6.5% and still remains a tight market. Wheat acres up nearly 4 million and only increases ending stocks from 568 to 608 million. Wheat remains a tight market with MPLS and KC tighter than CHI. We go over the implications and were we see the markets going in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 345If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this podcast we take a deep dive into analyzing endings stocks, stock/usage, and days of supply. We talk how prices are ultimately determined by a combination of US ending stocks and global exporter ending stocks. Then we look at the trends over the years and why the market are more sensitive to tight wheat stocks compared to canola, soybeans, and corn. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 344If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThis week we talk the strong US jobs numbers despite increasing interest rates and tech company layoffs. We then look at the energy markets and why we are bullish crude oil in the June to December time frame. We then talk about why the risk is to the upside in old crop grain/oilseeds but why we are bearish new crop corn, soybeans, and canola. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 343If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThis week we talk about the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve each raising interest rates by 0.25% and why we think rates only go up another quarter or half point before stabilizing for the rest of the year. We take a look into energy and why we like summer and year end call spreads in crude oil. Finally we talk about canola, soybeans, wheat, and corn for both old crop and new crop. Old crop remains tight but new crop acres/trend yields lower prices by the end of 2023. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 342If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThis week we talk about the macro economy, US interest rate policy for 2023, corporate layoffs, the expected recession. We then dive into soybeans, canola, corn, winter wheat, and spring wheat. Farmers should be looking to clear out old crop and make more sales/hedges for new crop. Consumers need to make sure they are covered for the next two quarters but do not need to be aggressive with purchases for the second half of the marketing year or into 2024. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 341If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe USDA released the Jan WASDE, Quarterly Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings report on Thursday. The USDA cut old crop corn and soybean production. Winter wheat acres are up 3.5 million from last year. Old crop corn exports were reduced due to high prices and US soybean exports are lower based on expectations of a large Brazilian harvest. We talk about all of that plus what to expect going forward. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 340If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe commodity markets sold off start 2023 but stabilized by the end of the week. Investors and traders are concerned about global growth and recession. We talk about the macro markets, recession risks, and the upcoming January WASDE report next week. We also dive into OTC and structured products. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 339If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastHappy Holidays and Merry Christmas! We will be closed on Monday, 12/26, the day the exchanges and banks observe Christmas Day. It has been a slow week and most likely so will next week between the Christmas holiday and New Years. In this podcast we go over why we think energy prices could be higher over the next six months and also why grain and oilseeds could be lower. I’m working from home next week so if you need to talk please call my cell phone. If you are interested in our thought about Ag and Energy over the next few months, then make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 338If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this episode we talk about central banks raising interest rates this week. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England hiked rates by 50 basis points. Last week the Bank of Canada raised rates by a half point too. Macro markets are selling off as traders grapple with a hawkish Federal Reserve in 2023. We then get into the energy and ag markets. We are still bullish on crude oil and heating oil. Soybeans and corn seem to have more risk to the downside than wheat over the next few months. We wrap up by looking at the major wild card in the grain market right now, S. American weather and what it can mean for prices. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 337If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this episode we talk about the Bank of Canada raising interest rates and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. We then go into the Natural Gas and Petroleum markets. We end the podcast with a discussion why wheat finds support at these levels but soybeans and canola could run into resistance. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Our price models suggest elevated prices for grains and oilseeds in 2023, with wheat the strongest into 2024.
Interest rates have gone from 0% to 3.25% but have not decreased the rate of increase for inflation.
Canada is set to produce a bumper canola crop as long as frost does not get in the way.
In this podcast we talk about ag prices and how they are impacted by recession, interest rates, and rising inflation.
US GDP for Q1 was -1.6% and -0.9% in Q2. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
US fuel prices are on the rise and part of it is due to energy policy. If true then this is a supply issue. If policy is written in stone inflation is structural. If policy can change the inflation could be structural
The US may already be in a recession, energy prices are bullish due to declining refinery capacity, and row crops are heading for summer weather markets
Quarterly stocks came in as expected, soybean acres were a bullish surprise, but that couldn't stop the selling in corn, wheat, and soybeans
The markets sold off this week due to fears of higher interest rates that may cause a recession
Talks between the UN and Russia about a "grain export corridor" brought wheat prices down this week. We are skeptical a deal gets done based on how Russia has conducted itself with the war and their stance on suppling energy to Europe.
Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 311
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast In this week's episode we ask the question how will inflation change trading ranges in the ag markets once we go back to adequate and burdensome stocks. Will we see $3.00 corn again or $4.00 wheat? How about $8 soybeans or $400 canola? We take a look at what inflation did to commodity prices in the 1970s and how they never did go back to the old ranges from the 1960s. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner's Take Podcast! Inflation & Ag Market Lows Below is a 60 year chart of corn. In the 1960s corn traded between $1 and $2 a bushel. The period of rapid inflation started in 1972 and did not end until the early 1980s. While many factors were blamed, inflation usually is a product of easy money for a prolonged period of time combined with massive spending deficits.
From 1972 to 2007 corn generally traded between $2 and $4 a bushel. In 2007 the market changed due to a combination of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) program plus the emergence of China as a major buyer of all commodities. A new trading range was formed and corn would traded between $3 and $4.50 when stocks were adequate to burdensome. When stocks were tight, corn could trade between $4.50 and $8.00
We are now in a new period of inflation. The latest CPI reading for the US has inflation up 8.3% since last April. Canada's latest inflation reading came in at 6.8%. No one thinks inflation will stop anytime soon and Central Banks have a long way to go with raising interest rates. The question we have been asking is, when inflation is finally brought under control, what will be the new trading range for the Ag markets?
For now we can only guess. We will not know for sure until the we have a period of adequate to burdensome stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat. I don't see that happening for at least a full crop cycle. Soybeans have a chance for adequate stocks is S. America have a big crop next season. For corn and wheat it could be longer depending on what happens with Ukraine. This will be a topic we will continue to revisit as inflation rages on. Stay tuned!
About Turner's Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner - Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner's Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
ND farmers have until May 20th to plant HRS wheat before Prevent Plant becomes an option
Fed Chairman Powell said taming inflation is "absolutely essential" and the market is pricing in a 50 basis point interest rate hike for the next FOMC meeting in May.
It has been a record travel month for me professionally. I guess COVID is over because it seems like travel restrictions are coming to an end, US states and foreign nations are easier to travel to, and Corporate America is back to bank on the road.
Farm Advantage is a free app and has market quotes, advanced charts, StoneX research and reports, USDA insurance info, BAMWX weather, and cash bids across the nation.
Thanks to everyone who came out to Commodity Classic and swung by the StoneX booth to say hello
Flat price winter wheat futures were limit it up most of the week but that did not prevent those markets from trading
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 300 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
In this week’s podcast we go over Russian/Ukraine, US inflation, and they impact the macro markets. Then we switch gears to next week’s Ag Forum and what it means for the grain and oilseed markets. The Ag Forum will give us the USDA’s first look at new crop acres, trend line yields, and demand figures. We are very interested to see how the USDA accounts for the lost demand in S. America and how it finds its way into the to the US balance sheets for old crop or new crop exports. Soybean oil projections for biodiesel production will be another big data point to review. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast.
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AG FORUM The USDA’s 2022 Ag Forum is 2/24 and 2/25. This is a big report for a couple of reasons. The first is we get to see USDA estimates for new crop acres. The second is we get to see what the USDA thinks about new crop demand. We don’t see a planted acres report again until the end of March and we don’t get to see a new crop balance sheet until the May WASDE. Below is a chart of US Summer Row-Crop Panted Acres. The chart includes corn, soybeans, spring wheat, durum, and cotton. One of our themes has been there is not enough new crop acres to be around. All of these markets have high prices, tight balance sheets, and a need for more acres. It will be interesting to see if the mix stays the same or if the USDA thinks there might be one winner (or loser).
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 299 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST Lots of news and information to go over this week. We talk macro markets and trends but then focus on the CONAB surprise and what it means for grain and oil seed prices for 2021/22 and the 2022/23 marketing years. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
CONAB SOYBEAN ESTIMATES CONAB shocked the oilseed market and cut production down to 125.5 MMTs. The table below is from our team in Brazil. It is in Portuguese but the six rows are for Acres, Yield, Production, Domestic Use, Exports, and Ending Stocks. Yields were reduced 12.5% and that took production from 140 to 125 MMTs. Exports were lowered by 9 MMTs and results in minimal ending stocks for Brazil. The big question for me is where does the lost 325mm bushels of export demand go if not Brazil? I’m guessing at least 200mm comes back to the US.
Global stocks or soybeans and oilseeds are tight. S. American production losses could shift enough export demand to the US that results in minimum pipeline ending stocks. The US needs 90mm+ acres of soybeans and a trendline yield or better to build up very tight stocks levels for 2022/23. I still like buying call spreads and selling put spreads for both old crop and new crop soybeans.
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Drought Monitor Below are the drought monitors for the US and Canada. The US western corn belt (WCB) is dry and need precipitation. The SW needs it the most. Canada is also dry from Saskatoon to Calgary/Edmonton. This year we need as much US (corn, soybeans, wheat) and Canadian (canola, wheat) acres and production as possible. There is still a lot of time for conditions to improve but things are not off to a great start. Prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola will most likely remain elevated until more is known about N. American acres and yield potential. Given the tight stock levels, drought conditions, and demand levels, our bias is bullish on breaks.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 298 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST The Bank of England raised rates this week to 0.50% on a 5-4 vote. The four no votes wanted rates to increase to 0.75%. The EU has changed its tune and is now considering more hawkish monetary policy for 2022. We go over the macro markets, the Feb WASDE, and what we think about wheat, corn and soybeans. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
WASDE ESTIMATES The USDA will release their February WASDE on Wednesday, 2/9 at 11am CT. Brazil soybean production estimates range from 126.5 MMT to 137.5 MMT. Brazil corn along with Arg corn and soybeans are all expected to be lower by about 2 MMTs. CONAB will also be updating the market on Brazil crop production next week. Traders are speculating CONAB may get aggressive with production cuts in order to help the government start to determine farmer aid packages.
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SOYBEANS Below are my estimates for soybeans and what the balance sheet could look like with a 20 MMT loss in South America. It basically puts US Ending Stocks at pipeline minimums for 2021-2022 (old crop) and 2022-2023 (new crop) marketing years. Only 90mm+ acres and a trendline yield or better this summer gets soybeans back to adequate stock levels for 2022-23.
CORN Below are my estimates for corn and I included a scenario of S. America losing 10 MMT of production. Ending stocks at 1.3 and 1.2 billion is bullish but not as bullish as the soybean example. Corn needs 91mm acres and a 180bpa (trendline and record) just to keep pace with demand. Lets hope farmers are able to plant the acres and get the fertilizer to max yields.
WHEAT Below are my estimates for All Wheat. The US needs 48mm acres and a yield of 49 bpa just to keep stocks about the same levels year-over-year. The US has become the residual supplier of wheat to the world. Profitability per acre has favored corn and soybeans for much of the corn belt since the introduction of RFS. We are finally starting to see trend in increased acres for wheat. This could be the year when acres and a trend line yield can keep ending stocks from going lower year-over-year.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 297 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this week’s podcast we start off with the Fed announcement and why we think the US Dollar Index will strengthen and why the CAD and EU will weaken. We then move onto February Natural Gas and why you should not hold positions into Last Trading Day (LTD). We end the podcast with our thought on the grain and oilseed markets and why our favorite picks for the spring and summer is corn and soybean oil. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
NATURAL GAS If you have an account with me I may have called, emailed our texted you when a position is a week away from First Notice Day (FND) or Last Trading Day (LTD). We always want traders to get out of a market either the day before FND for grains or LTD for energy. Only commercial traders and accounts involved in the delivery process should be involved in the markets on last trading day. The markets get thin, it is hard to get in an out, and if you have too many specs on one side of the market you can get some unbelievable price action.
February Natural Gas is a perfect example. We had a $3.00 trading range in Feb while March was only up $0.30 cents. If I had to guess, someone was assigned a lot of short positions last night (after Feb option expiration) and they had to buy them all back today. A $3 move in NG is $30,000 per contract. Moral of the story – don’t carry positions into delivery periods or into Last Trading Day.
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Feb Natural Gas – Last Trading Day
GRAINS Wheat rallied hard as Russia escalated tensions with Ukraine last week. The past two day wheat prices have come down as the two nations, NATO, and the US are in diplomatic talks. If talks break down wheat can go right back to where we were in the beginning of the week. Below is the US Drought Monitor. Much of the HRW wheat crop area is dry. The western Midwest and Southwest are in dire need for precipitation.
Arg Corn GD/EX rebounded this week to 32% from 22% last week. GD/EX was nearly 60% at the end of 2021. Rains in Argentina have stabilized the crop but damage to yields and quality have been done.
Brazil second crop corn is in pollination in March/April. While much damage has been done to soybeans there is still time for corn to have a good growing season with improved weather. The better corn in S. America will likely come at the end of the harvest season which could lead to more US export demand in the short term.
OILSEEDS March Malaysian Palm Oil hit new all time highs this week, Canola has been trading over $1000, and March soybean oil hit contract highs for this time of year. Indonesia is limiting exports to keep the cost of cooking oil lower for domestic use. Brazilian state Parana estimates soybean production losses of 6mm MT, over 30% of their crop. Private estimates have total Brazilian soybean production between 130 to 135 MMT, which is 5 to 10 lower than the USDA and CONAB.
Soybean oil was trading in the high 40s this time last year. We are now in the mid 60s with export demand greater and domestic biodiesel production increasing. I continue to like buying July call spreads and selling put spreads. Since 2006 global demand for vegetable oil has increase almost 4% per year with no negative growth years. Demand is very inelastic and renewable biodiesel mandates are expanding. Soybean oil is arguably the best bullish story in the grain market today.
Soybean Oil Daily Chart
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 296 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this podcast we go over US new crop acreage estimates and what it could mean for corn, soybean and wheat prices in 2022. Based on our work it seems like there is not enough US acres to go around. Without trendline yields or better, 2022 might bring another marketing year of tight ending stocks and elevated prices. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
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CORN Corn and soybean acres tend to max out around 180mm in the US. We currently have new crop corn at 91mm acres which leaves 89mm for soybeans. Some may say the corn number is too low but with high input costs and high prices of other commodities, we think acres will be lower for corn outside the main corn belt.
Below is a chart of major corn exporter stock/usage ratios going back twenty year. According to the Jan USDA global exporter are at 8.5% stock/usage. The lows in 2011 and 2020 were 7%. When production losses in S. America are all account for we could be back at that 7% low again for 2022.
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At 91mm acres and a trend line 180 yield (which would be a record by 3 bpa), US production just barely keeps up with demand. Ethanol use is ahead of USDA pace needed to meet WASDE expectations. The USDA will most likely have to raise ethanol use by 50 to 100mm bushels. Production losses in S. America could shift 100 to 200mm bushels in exports back to the US. The point is ending stocks are probably closer to 1.2 to 1.3 billion instead of 1.5 billion. Also note that at 91mm acres and a record 180 bpa ending stocks do not change year over year.
I like buying call spread and selling put spreads in July for spec and farmer re-ownership. For farmers looking to sell new crop during the growing season I think some courage calls to sell into make a lot of sense too. Call me and we can figure out the best strategy for your account.
SOYBEANS Soybeans at 89mm and a national 51 bpa keeps US production equal to total demand. Major exporters have tight stock to usage on par with the 2011 lows. Soybean production losses in S. America could lead to the tightest stock/usage ratios for major exporters in the past 20 years.
While soybeans are charging higher, canola and EU rapeseed are trading at $18 and $19 per bushel respectively. The market is aggressively price rationing canola and rapeseed and encouraging consumers to substitute soybeans for oilseed products. As the marketing year goes on we could see more soybean demand come from traditional canola/rapeseed buyers.
The USDA has old crop soybean carryout at 350 but since the Jan WASDE S. American produciton estimates have come down another 5-6 MMT. Another 100 to 125mm bushels of export demand could come back to the US. That could put ending stocks closer to 225 to 250mm bushels. Keep in mind at 89mm acres and a 51 yield new crop ending stocks don’t change year-over-year. Some will argue 89mm is too high if corn is at 92 or 93mm acres. There is just not enough acres to go around this year.
WHEAT .Major wheat exporter stock/usage is as tight as it was back in 2007 when we had $20 wheat!
At 48mm acres for All Wheat and a healty 49 bpa yield, ending stocks are the same year-over-year. That could be a tall order considering the drought we are seeing in HRW country. Some may say 48mm acres are too high, but anything less sends stocks lower even with a trend line yield or higher. Winter wheat needs to stay above $7 and spring wheat above $9 to attract sufficient acres.
Outlook There is not enough acres to go around to make sure every major grain and oilseed market is adequately supplied next marketing year without trend line yields or higher across the board. This sets up for a volatile planting and growing season. Based on our work the bias is to the upside with the potential for extreme price swings if weather markets develop.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 295 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST The USDA released their January WASDE today along with the Quarterly Stocks Report and Winter Wheat Seedings. The report was fairly neutral. SRW wheat acres were higher than expected and winter wheat finished 13 cents lower. Global soybean sticks tightened more than expected and soybeans closed 13 cents higher. Corn was caught in the middle. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
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JANUARY 2022 WASDE The January WASDE was a non-event today. SRW wheat acres were higher than expected and global soybean ending stocks were lower than expected. There was nothing in this report that could cause a limit move or change a trend. South American soybean production was lowered almost 10 MMTs. This results in the a net draw on global ending stocks year-over-year instead of a build. Further losses in South America will tighten major global exporter stocks.
Corn was neutral with no surprises. Carryout is now 1.5 billion. We were surprised the USDA lowered corn exports. I personally thought they would stay the same or go higher due to production losses in S. America. Below is a summary of US old crop production and ending stocks, South American productions, and winter wheat seedings.
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New Crop Supply and Demand Ideas Below are my early ideas on 2022-2023 new crop corn and soybeans. I’m going to assume 91mm acres corn with a trendline yield of 180. For soybeans it is 89mm acres and a yield of 51.
At 91mm acres and 180 bpa, US supply just barely keeps up with demand. Prices stay elevated in the $5s with weather markets into the $6s. Some traders are arguing for 94mm acres corn. If that is the case then we have to add on 500mm bushels to ending stocks. That means 2 billion carryout on a record production, beating old yields by 3 bpa. That is probably the best bear case I can come up with. A bull case of 91mm acres and a 175 yield puts corn in the $7 to $8 range. It doesn’t take a lot to get corn going another dollar higher this spring/summer if acres are 91 or even 92mm.
At 89mm acres and a 51 bpa, US supply just barely keeps up with demand. 89mm acres is only 1mm shy of a record. A 53 yield puts ending stocks at 500. A 49 yield sends ending stocks to 200 or lower. A 2 bpa difference from trend could be the difference between $10 and $15 soybeans.
Hold on to your hats this summer, it could be a wild ride.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 294 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this podcast we go over the Fed minutes and why the markets thought they were more hawkish than expected. We talk about why the US Dollar Index could go over 100 and stay there. We also go over why corn could still have more upside, why China is buying US soybean cargos, and the weakness in wheat.
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 293 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST Grain markets opened up stronger Sunday night but eventually succumbed to omicron shutdown fears. It this podcast we go over inflation, interest rate hikes, and the threat of omicron shutdowns. We also talk about why covid shutdowns hurt energy markets more than grain and oilseeds. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast.
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Macro Markets Equity and energy are leading the markets lower today as omicron is spreading around the world. Traders are concerned the high rate of infections could lead to some government imposing economic shutdowns.
The Bank of England raised interest rates last week from 0.10% to 0.25% as monthly inflation is hitting 6%, three times their acceptable target. The US is tapering bond purchases and plans for three rate hikes in 2022. These are hawkish policies to fight inflation. China on the other hand cut lending rates as they are still dealing with their real estate crisis. It is impossible to know what the real inflation rate is in China but one has to assume it is elevated just like the rest of the world. As major global economies are tightening fiscal policy, China is easing. Their real estate crisis is probably worse then they are letting on in public.
Below is a chart of the US Dollar index. A close above 97 continues the bullish trend. A close above 98 could lead to a break out to 100. Major support comes in at 94.50.
US Dollar Index
Grains & Oilseeds The markets opened up stronger on threatening weather in Argentina and S. Brazil but the screen eventually went green to red as the global macro markets caused selling pressure across the board. South American weather is forecast to be hot and dry over the next two weeks. This is the time of year when the markets build weather premium into corn and soybeans. Seasonally corn, soybeans, and wheat trend higher for the next few weeks. The markets may be down today due to omicron shutdown fears but once they selling subsides, grain and oilseeds should be first to rally.
India announced today a halt on agricultural futures trading for the next year. India is the largest importer of vegetable oil and the are very concerned about food inflation. While this move will most likely have minimal impact on global vegetable oil prices, it does imply India thinks food inflation will get worse before it gets better.
Below is a chart for March Corn. If Argentina and S. Brazil stays hot and dry for the next two weeks then corn should close above $6.00 and could trade between $6.20 and $6.40. Timely rains and a break in the heat put $5.60 in play. The next few weeks will go a long way in determining the S. American crop.
Holiday Week The markets will be closed Friday, December 24. Thursday is a full trading day but once we close the markets will not open back up until Sunday night. Please note that volumes tend to get thinner the closer we get to Christmas.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 292 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this week’s podcast we focus on the USDA’s Dec WASDE report. The market viewed it as bearish wheat, neutral corn, and bullish soybeans. We see the trade quickly digesting this report and then moving on to trading US exports and S. American weather. I think MW and KC wheat will find support on the breaks. Corn has the potential to break through $6 on increased demand or S. American weather issues. Soybeans will most likely be range bound but the USDA was supportive for soybean oil. To learn then please take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
DEC WASDE MIXED WHEAT – This report is moderately bearish for wheat. Exports for all US wheat were lowered by 20mm bushels to 840mm. The USDA noted the slower pace for HRS wheat exports and lowered HRW wheat exports too. High prices are rationing demand. Wheat prices are expected to remain elevated for the rest of the marketing year and will discourage exports. The US will be the residual supply of wheat on the global market. Global wheat stocks came in at the high end of the range. Consumption is higher but also is production and ending stocks.
CORN – US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov. Global corn stocks were up slightly but overall this report was neutral for corn.
SOYBEANS – US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov. Global soybean production was lowered along with ending stocks due to lower Chinese production. This is mildly bullish for soybeans.
SOYBEAN OIL – The USDA did note the EPA biofuel mandates and kept 2021/22 use at 11 billion pounds. Soybean oil production is estimated to increase in order to offset lower canola and cottonseed oil production. Ending stocks stayed the same, but use increased, which makes the stock/usage tighter to almost 7%. Soybean oil is forecast to have an average price of 65 cents per pound in the cash market.
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 291 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast In this week’s podcast we go over what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell meant when he told Congress inflation is no longer transitory. If inflation is not transitory then it is structural. Powell acknowledged the “risk of higher inflation has increased” and now the market will expect the Fed to accelerate their tapering along with two or three interest rate increases in 2022. We also go over our views on the energy and ag markets, why we like old crop corn and soybean oil, but are sellers of new crop wheat. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Energy Crude Oil found support today just above $62, which was support tin May and August this year. Crude was able to trade about $5 off the lows at the close, and this was after OPEC announced they would pump more oil. This type of buying at a major support level, in the face of bearish news, is usually the sign of a low. Crude needs to hold $62 or it could go down to the March lows of $57.
Continuous Daily Crude Oil Chart
Grains & Oilseeds United Airlines flew a 737 yesterday from Chicago to DC with one of the engines running 100% on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), aka biofuel. This is another example of why I am bullish vegetable oil (soybean and canola) for the foreseeable future. It would be nice to see the EPA comment on biodiesel mandates but that might not happen until President Biden gets his Build Back Better deal sorted.
Corn is currently in a range between $5.50 and $5.95. For corn to break out over $6.00 there has to be a real S. American weather threat. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released a report warning the market of a potential drought in Jan/Feb due to La Nina conditions. I find it hard to put a lot of stock in long range weather forecasts but this is a story to follow. US and global corn stocks are tight and a major weather issue in Argentina and S. Brazil could send corn over $6.20 if the market thinks S. Am production could come down 5% or more.
I like buying the May Corn $6.00/$6.70 call spread and selling the $5.50/$5.00 put spread for around even money. If the market tanks then we have limited risk to the downside. If there are real issues in S. America or we have lower than expected US corn acre due to the fertilizer situation, we can always roll up the $6.70 leg on the call spread.
Continuous Daily Corn Chart
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 290 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast It is Thanksgiving week and we are already seeing lower volumes and less trader participation. Money flow is still coming into commodities from the inflation trade. Interest rates are on the rise. Western Europe nations are starting to impose lockdowns for COVID and that has pressured the energy markets. At the CBOT wheat continues to lead the ag markets. We talk about all of it on this week’s Turner’s Take podcast!
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Thanksgiving Week Thanksgiving week tends to be a slow week at the office. Each day the volumes get lighter. The US markets are closed on Thursday. Wednesday is a full day of trading but it feels like a half day. Friday is a half day of trading and it feels like a holiday. I’ll be around so give me a call or send an email if you need anything.
Wheat Wheat rallied again today as rains in Australia threaten to reduced the quality of the new crop. Below is a chart of Major Wheat Exporters Carryout and Stocks/Usage Ratios. I like this chart because it shows how tight the world is with respect to exportable wheat. The new harvest in Argentina and Australia will help but I don’t think we see a material build in supplies until the next Northern Hemisphere harvest.
This is a histogram for new crop Hard Spring Wheat (Minneapolis). We should see an expansion of acres for spring wheat in the US and Canada. They say “high prices cure high prices” and new crop MW is getting to very high levels. Sept (new crop) closed at 9.35 today. That is in the top 5% of prices over the past 10 years. Farmers should look to sell some new crop spring wheat at $9.40 or better. I would do at least 10% of expected new crop production.
Corn The high price of fertilizer and other chemicals is causing a significant spike in corn inputs this year. Analysts are predicting some acres switching from corn to wheat and soybeans. Below is a chart of urea at the gulf. Prices just seem to keep climbing higher.
Corn prices in the US and around the globe continues to be elevated. Corn in China is still over $10. The US is competitively priced on the world market despite the high valuation of the US Dollar. The chart below shows the stock/usage for major corn exporters. Any significant increase in use or supply loss could send us the US exporters to historically tight stock/usage levels. This chart (combined with the price of wheat) best explains how US corn carryout can be 1.5 billion yet old crop can be $5.75 post harvest.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 289 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast I’ve been traveling all week in Canada. It is snowing in Saskatoon so I hope I make my connecting flight in Vancouver. That’s right, the best option for me today was Saskatoon ->Vancouver -> Chicago. Before the pandemic we could fly direct to Saskatchewan but there isn’t enough air travel yet to get those flights back. This podcast was recorded at the hotel so the audio quality is a little off this week. It will be back to our regular production standards once I’m back in the office. We spend most of our time this week on the November WASDE and what we are looking for going forward with corn, wheat, soybeans, canola, soybean oil, natural gas, and crude oil. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take!
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November WASDE The November WASDE was supportive for grain and oilseeds. The big concern going into the report was higher soybean ending stocks due to lower export demand. Demand was weaker but the USDA also decreased production a half bushel to 51.2. The result was a moderately bullish surprise and soybean stocks only climbed 20mm bushels to 340 million bushels
Global soybeans stocks were lower but global corn stocks are higher. The market has settled out after the initial report response to the better than expected numbers. Wheat is still tight and will be the leader with corn also a bullish driver. Soybeans are stuck to between a large S. American crop coming in a few months but tight corn and wheat stocks in the US and globally.
WHEAT Going forward Wheat will stay elevated but the market knows that the world produces wheat for export every few months. The major exporting nations are the US, Canada, Argentina, EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Australia. Argentina and Australia will have week for export in the next month or two. That should help alleviate tight stocks. A good crop in the N. Hemisphere in 2022 could bring stocks back go normal levels. The moral of the story is while wheat is in tight supply now and deserves to be the leader on the board, wheat an also go back to more historical prices quicker than corn and soybeans due to all the wheat that is produced around the world.
SOYBEANS I am concerned about new crop soybeans. If S. American has a good crop and we see more N. American soybean acres due to the higher input costs for corn, then soybeans could be $1 to $2 lower this time next year. Farmers need to use rallies to price/hedge 2022 new crop soybeans.
CORN Finally, I do like corn and think $5.50 is a good value area. China is buying corn right now from Ukraine and I personally think that is because they want to avoid reporting how much corn they need. Corn in China is still high and around $9 and $10 per bushel. Corn in the Ukraine is more expensive than US corn but their is no daily reporting system in Ukraine. A shrewd trader would buy the Ukraine corn first and then come to the US and S. America later this year. Corn is adequate to tight with a carryout below 1.5 billion, feed will be strong due to the tightness of feed wheat, and ethanol margins are very positive given the energy situation in the US and globally. When you consider the price of fertilizer and how that impacts margins for corn producers on lower productive ground, we could see lower acres in the US or less fertilizer usage. Either way corn should be supported in the $5.40 to $5.50 area with resistance at $5.85, $6.00 and finally $6.20
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