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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, we reflect on a dramatic Grand Final in Basel – and ask where Eurovision goes from here.

James Stephenson is your host as he gets to ask JJ personally how he felt waiting for that dramatic split-screen to end during Saturday night’s final, and you’ll hear JJ’s reaction in today’s show. And, for the rest of it, he and the rest of the Eurovoix Podcast team break down Austria’s victory, all the shocks and surprises, and ask whether more needs to be done to protect the voting system.

On this final episode of the Eurovision 2025 season, we’d like to thank all of you for listening to Wrap-Up over the last nine months. Our story began when we learned we were heading to Basel, and it ended in the room with the winner – congratulations to Austria, and good luck for the contest in 2026!

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Tonight’s grand final will see 26 hopeful countries take to the stage in a bid to take victory in the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 in Basel, Switzerland. Tonight’s results of the contest will be determined by 50% jury vote and 50% televoting, with the juries having their first say in the results tonight.

With that all being said however, Eurovoix have dissected the results of our events The Model and Your Voix as well as the current betting odds to see within tonight’s final lineup who the favourites are and what we could expect in the results of tonight’s final.

The ModelFollowing The Model’s most recent update, the latest data simulation is forecasting the following countries will make up the top 10 of tonight’s grand final:

Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
France: Louane – “Maman”
Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
Switzerland: Zoë Më – “Voyage”
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato“
Italy: Lucio Corsi – “Volevo essere un duro”
Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”

Your VoixIn April we tasked our reader to vote in a simulated version of the grand final comprised of the 26 countries that advanced from earlier rounds, these are the 10 entries Your Voix expects to be top 10, it is worth noting that Czechia would have placed 6th here tonight had they qualified on Thursday:

Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
France: Louane – “Maman”
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
Switzerland: Zoë Më – “Voyage”
Germany: Abor & Tynna – “Baller”
Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”

Betting OddsAs of today, currently the most recent betting odds are suggesting these are the most likely top 10 tonight:

Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
France: Louane – “Maman”
Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato“
Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
Switzerland: Zoë Më – “Voyage”
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”

OverallSweden is forecast to top the contest according to the betting as well as Your Voix and The Model. Meanwhile France, Austria and Finland all appear in the top 5 of each element in some order, while the top 5 of the betting odds is completed with the Netherlands, Your Voix with Albania and The Model with Switzerland.

Tomorrow we dissect the qualifiers of tonight’s show and compare which of the three results above were most accurate.

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, is officially predicting Sweden to win Eurovision 2025 in Basel tonight.

The Model, which is a system that uses data to project the results of the contest, is predicting that KAJ’s song “Bara Bada Bastu” will score 598 points tonight – 248 from the national juries and 350 from the public vote.

Behind them, though, it is a close race. France’s Louane is only 18 points behind in this projection, scoring 370 points with the national juries and 210 with the public vote for 580 points overall. Austria, Finland and Switzerland are predicted to round out the top five.

If KAJ were to win tonight, it would mark Sweden’s record-breaking eighth Eurovision Song Contest victory. Not only that, Sweden would win after sending their first song in their native language since 1998.

Today’s prediction of Eurovision 2025 takes everything we know into account. It includes data from the current betting odds, community song rankings and polls, and also includes the findings from last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, jointly organised by Eurovoix. As a result, The Model’s prediction attempts to be the most accurate of tonight’s show.

What is The Model?This prediction comes from a simulation system called The Model. The Model is a system that uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns, and even internal musical statistics to try to predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest.

Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi-finals and final of the contest. While other projections leading up to the contest have only been ‘nowcasts’ of what could happen on a given day, this prediction is the official calculation of what The Model expects to happen tonight.

Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:

Here is the full breakdown of The Model’s official prediction.

The Top FiveTonight’s Top 5 According to The ModelJuries

| Country | Jury Points | | France | 370 | | Switzerland | 276 | | Austria | 253 | | Sweden | 248 | | Netherlands | 221 | | Finland | 89 | | Italy | 79 | | Greece | 73 | | Albania | 62 | | Portugal | 58 | | Norway | 57 | | Luxembourg | 47 | | Denmark | 43 | | Spain | 41 | | United Kingdom | 37 | | Germany | 37 | | Lithuania | 30 | | Malta | 27 | | Israel | 26 | | Latvia | 23 | | San Marino | 16 | | Ukraine | 13 | | Poland | 11 | | Estonia | 6 | | Armenia | 3 | | Iceland | 0 |

Televote

| Country | Televote Points | | Sweden | 350 | | Finland | 276 | | Austria | 225 | | France | 210 | | Estonia | 141 | | Albania | 113 | | Israel | 87 | | Malta | 77 | | Germany | 77 | | Iceland | 73 | | Poland | 65 | | Italy | 62 | | Lithuania | 60 | | Norway | 58 | | Spain | 53 | | San Marino | 48 | | Greece | 39 | | Netherlands | 38 | | Ukraine | 31 | | Denmark | 27 | | Armenia | 22 | | United Kingdom | 21 | | Switzerland | 20 | | Portugal | 11 | | Latvia | 12 | | Luxembourg | 8 |

Overall ResultThe Overall Eurovision 2025 Prediction from The ModelFrom 21:00 CET, we’ll find out how accurate The Model’s prediction was during the Grand Final of Eurovision 2025.

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Following yesterday’s second semi final which took place in Basel, Switzerland, we have our second 10 countries that qualified for the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest on Saturday.

With this in mind, we have our first piece of information where we can measure the accuracy of The Model, Your Voix and the Betting Odds compared to the actual contest. The 10 qualifiers from the semi final were revealed in a random order:

Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
Montenegro: Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli”
Ireland: Emmy – “Laika Party”
Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
Armenia: Parg – “Survivor”
Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
Georgia: Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom”
Denmark: Sissal – “Hallucination”
Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
Serbia: Princ – “Mila”
Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”

The Model Achieved 80% AccuracyA notable surprise when comparing The Model to the actual result was Australia not qualifying despite placing 4th. The only other incorrect country that The Model forecast to qualify was Ireland in 7th place. However The Model was also the only element this round that correctly identified Czechia not qualifying despite a strong presence in the build up to the contest. The 2 missed countries from the actual qualifying list were Denmark and Latvia.

Your Voix Achieved 80% AccuracyYour Voix notably missed Israel from their predicted top 10 for last night’s semi final despite rating highly in the other elements, they indeed passed to the final. The only other incorrect prediction was Armenia who have also secured a space. Instead Czechia and Australia were forecast to advance to tomorrow’s grand final, with Czechia even reaching third place on the ranking.

The Betting Odds Achieved 80% AccuracyThe betting odds were also two short of a full house in this round. Like Your Voix, the betting were forecasting an advance to the final for Czechia however the biggest shock for the bookies was no Australia despite them being placed in 5th as most likely to go through. Instead the public on the night opted for Armenia and Denmark.

The Eurovision Song Contest 2025 will conclude on Saturday with the grand final in Basel, Switzerland. 26 countries will be competing for the win and the right to host next year’s contest.

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Today on the Eurovoix Podcast, we have our full lineup for the biggest music show in the world – the Eurovision Grand Final.

James Stephenson is your host in Basel as, just minutes after Semi-Final 2 finished, we break down the 10 qualifiers and analyse what went wrong for those who missed out. Neil Farren and Sem Anne van Dijk join us to go over the whole semi-final and look ahead to see if anybody can challenge Sweden for this year’s Eurovision title.

The rest of the Eurovoix Podcast team will be reacting to all the surprises too, from Australia’s milkshake falling flat and Czechia waving “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” to the contest. And, as the final is just a day away, we’ll be looking ahead to it by interviewing some of the stars competing.

You’ll hear from Swiss hometown hero Zoë Më as she prepares her “Voyage” for the Basel stage, and German duo Abor & Tynna join us to talk about what makes “Baller” unique. And, uniquely, we have a chance to speak to artists hours after they qualified – you’ll hear from Portugal’s NAPA about their feelings about making it to the final, and we’ll speak to Ziferblat for a third time about their experience at Eurovision.

So if you love Eurovision, go there with us. Listen to Wrap-Up throughout the contest in Basel, and make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts to make sure you don’t miss a moment!

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Tonight’s semi-final sees another 16 hopeful countries competing on stage in a bid to take one of the last 10 spaces available in the grand final. As has been the case since 2023, tonight’s results will be determined by 100% televoting, with the juries not having a say until Saturday’s grand final.

With that all being said however, Eurovoix have dissected the results of our events The Model and Your Voix as well as the current betting odds to see within tonight’s lineup who the favourites are and what we could expect in the results of tonight’s semi-final.

The ModelFollowing The Model’s most recent update, the latest data simulation is forecasting the following 10 countries will advance to the grand final:

Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
Ireland: Emmy – “Laika Party”
Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
Armenia: Parg – “Survivor”
Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”

Your VoixIn April we tasked our reader to vote in a simulated version of semi final 2, these are the 10 entries that advanced to the grand final:

Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
Denmark: Sissal – “Hallucination”
Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”

Betting OddsAs of today, currently the most recent betting odds are suggesting these are the most likely qualifiers in tonight’s show:

Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”

OverallAll three elements are less in agreement on this semi final compared to the first, with Finland predicted as the winner tonight in both The Model and Your Voix. The betting odds however still have Austria as the winner.

Australia, Malta, Luxembourg, Lithuania and Greece are all favoured to go through according to all three sources to varying levels. The most notable disagreement for Your Voix is Israel not being one of the ten qualifiers tonight despite both the betting odds and The Model forecasting second place.

Your Voix currently is the only element predicting Denmark to go through, also disagreeing with The Model that Czechia and Latvia will also make it. Czechia not advancing was forecast in today’s The Model update which would prove another big shock in the semi finals as they have been consistent with the betting odds all season. Instead The Model is now the only element saying Armenia will go through.

Tomorrow we dissect the qualifiers of tonight’s show and compare which of the three results above were most accurate.

Eurovision 2025 Semi-Final TwoThe 69th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest continues this evening with the second Semi-Final live from Basel. A total of sixteen countries are competing this evening for ten places in the Grand Final on Saturday night. Hosting the competition this evening are Hazel Brugger and Sandra Studer.

The running order for the show is as follows:

Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
Montenegro: Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli”
Ireland: Emmy – “Laika Party”
Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
Armenia: Parg – “Survivor”
Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
Georgia: Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom”
Denmark: Sissal – “Hallucination”
Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
Serbia: Princ – “Mila”
Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, has made its official prediction for Semi-Final Two of Eurovision 2025 today.

The Model is predicting that Erika Vikman will win this semi-final for Finland with her song “Ich Komme”. Finland is projected to score 179 points in this semi-final, putting it 11 points ahead of nearest rivals Israel. They’re joined by Austria, Australia and Malta in the top five according to this projection.

The system has also predicted the six countries who are expected to miss out on the Grand Final. The main headline is that Czechia, a country who were predicted to finish in the Eurovision Top 10 by The Model as recently as Sunday, is now projected to exit at the semi-final stage. They would join Latvia, Denmark, Serbia, Montenegro and Georgia on the sidelines if The Model was absolutely correct.

Today’s prediction of Semi-Final Two takes everything we know into account. It includes data from the current betting odds, community song rankings and polls, and also includes the findings from last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, jointly organised by Eurovoix. As a result, The Model’s prediction attempts to be the most accurate of tonight’s show.

What is The Model?This semi-final prediction comes from a simulation system called The Model. The Model is a system that uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns, and even internal musical statistics to try to predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest.

Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:

And, if you’d like to find out more about why The Model was created, it’s been featured in a piece this week by German magazine Stern, where I (James, the person who built this) got to speak to them about what goes into the system and my thoughts on how it affects Eurovision coverage!

The ResultSemi-Final Two’s Official Prediction from ‘The Model’Now, let’s get into the full results of The Model’s prediction of Semi-Final Two.Mariam Shengelia rehearsing Freedom for Georgia at St. Jakobshalle16th Place – Georgia: Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom”Predicted to come in last place by The Model tonight is Georgia. Mariam Shengelia’s song “Freedom” has struggled towards the bottom of the odds throughout the season and, despite its staging, it appears not to be moving further up the board.

Georgia is projected to score 5 points by The Model, all from Armenia, and came second to last in the Eurovision Audience Poll after the jury show with 14 votes. Poor running order position is also a big factor in Georgia’s struggles within The Model, as Malta and France performing on either side of it makes it likely this could be overshadowed.

Nina Žižić rehearsing Dobrodošli for Montenegro at St. Jakobshalle15th Place – Montenegro: Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli”While Montenegro is making its Eurovision comeback this year, The Model thinks they may have to come back home early. Nina Žižić is projected to come second to last in this show with 11 points. This comes down to similar odds struggles as Georgia, and it placed bottom of the Audience Poll with only 8 votes.

The reason why Montenegro is ahead of Georgia comes down to diaspora, with “Dobrodošli” predicted to score 8 points from neighbours Serbia. However, the combination of the most difficult spot in the running order coupled with a lack of buzz means that this faces a huge battle to make it to the final.

Princ rehearsing Mila for Serbia at St. Jakobshalle14th Place – Serbia: Princ – “Mila”There’s a big jump in points up to 14th place and, from here, any country has got a reasonable chance to get through. Falling short, though, is Serbia according to The Model. Princ and his song “Mila” are projected to score 28 points in tonight’s show – this Balkan ballad also placed 12th in last night’s Audience Poll with 33 votes.

While Serbia has spent a fair deal of time in the top 10 of this semi-final’s qualification odds, it’s slipped down in recent days. However, there has been some positive odds movement in the main winners odds, suggesting that many think it can harness the power of the juries if it gets to the final. However, The Model thinks it’ll miss out.

ADONXS rehearsing Kiss Kiss Goodbye for Czechia at St. Jakobshalle13th Place – Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”The Model is projecting a serious shock could happen tonight. “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” by Adonxs was projected to qualify comfortably as recently as Sunday, and The Model thought it would make the top 10 in the final. Now, though, a combination of huge odds drops and a nightmarish Audience Poll result has led to The Model predicting Czechia not to qualify, scoring only 33 points from the public.

Czechia placed 14th in last night’s poll with 24 votes, a significant shock to many who were out gathering the votes at St. Jakobshalle. It seems that in a year with several strong stagings and exciting genres, Kiss Kiss Goodbye may be struggling to stand out in the pack. All this is adding to The Model predicting something that would have been unthinkable a week ago.

Sissal rehearsing Hallucination for Denmark at St. Jakobshalle12th Place – Denmark: Sissal – “Hallucination”The Model is also not bringing good news for Denmark – it predicts that it’ll miss out on a fifth Eurovision final in a row. However, there is hope for Sissal – last night’s Audience Poll placed her as high as ninth with 82 points. Not only that, The Model does think that it’s very close to making it – it’s projected to score 37 points, just three behind the qualifying line.

One of the main concerns for Denmark this year has been their allocation draw. To put it simply, it’s not been ideal – natural allies like Sweden and Norway in the Nordics have performed in the first semi-final, and the only country that borders it voting here is Germany. Coupled with mixed reactions to the staging, “Hallucination” could just fall short.

Tautumeitas second rehearsal – Latvia11th Place – Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”But if Denmark is missing out by a whisker, Latvia are projected by The Model to fall agonisingly short. That’s because the system predicts that Tautumeitas will score the same amount of points – 40 – as the song in tenth place. The Audience Poll from last night agrees with The Model here, placing Latvia in 11th, but with a healthy 71 votes.

If this prediction were absolutely accurate, it would be even more painful because Latvia have built momentum. Since Sunday, The Model has projected 10 extra points could be coming Latvia’s way, and the staging has been very well received online and in the press room. This prediction, though, is so close to call that it’s practically a coin toss with the country above it.

Klavdia performing Asteromáta during rehearsals for Greece10th Place – Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”So, why has Greece made it above Latvia? It’s because of the countback rules – with both countries scoring a 12 (from Armenia and Lithuania respectively), a 7 from Serbia is the difference in The Model between Greece qualifying and Latvia not. But this is despite Greece currently being seventh in the odds to qualify – so what’s going on?

Firstly, The Model has always felt that Klavdia might struggle – “Asteromata” is seen as friendlier with juries, and Greece is lacking its best friend, Cyprus. Greece was also only tenth in the Audience Poll with 81 votes, which isn’t a huge vote of confidence. If The Model is right, this promises to be an incredibly close race for the final few places on Saturday night.

PARG second rehearsal – Armenia9th Place – Armenia: Parg – “Survivor”Coming in ninth in The Model’s projection is its most outside bet. While Armenia are 13th in the odds to qualify at the time of writing, The Model reckons they’re going to make it. Parg and his song “Survivor” is tracking for 47 points with The Model tonight, and the prediction is backed up by a strong eighth place in the Audience Poll with 95 votes.

“Survivor” seems to be standing out in Basel – its harder rock sound is different to Lithuania’s more alternative style, and Parg’s physical staging seems to be capturing the imagination as well. Add that to having friends like Georgia and Greece voting for them, and The Model is making the argument for Parg to pass through to Saturday.

Katarsis second rehearsal – Lithuania8th Place – Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”The Model is placing Armenia’s rocking rival, “Tavo Akys” by Katarsis, one place above it in eighth with 66 points. I mentioned the differences between them in sound earlier, and the staging is completely different, too. That’s allowing both of these entries to stand out on their own – and Katarsis looks like the kind of act that appeals both to cool kids and their parents.

One caveat, though, is that Lithuania did not do very well in last night’s Audience Poll, taking just 26 votes from the public we spoke to outside St. Jakobshalle Arena. But with the betting odds remaining stable, a sizeable fanbase and a hugely favourable draw with countries like Latvia, Ireland and the UK voting here, this should make it over the line.

Emmy second rehearsal – Ireland7th Place – Ireland: Emmy – “Laika Party”If you looked at The Model’s prediction on Tuesday, you may have been one of many who were surprised at San Marino’s high placing. But after it qualified, it proved that audiences enjoy a song with an earworm hook. Right now, Ireland appears to be on a similar trajectory – thanks to an exceptional sixth place in the Audience Poll with 106 votes.

Emmy’s “Laika Party” is definitely playing to a younger crowd with its dancing space dogs and flashy lighting – but its running order position helps with that, too. Between Montenegro and Latvia, two more challenging songs for younger audiences, and early on in the show for kids to watch, is boosting its performance in The Model to 83 points.

Laura Thorn rehearsing La Poupée Monte Le Son for Luxembourg at St. Jakobshalle6th Place – Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”Up in sixth place, The Model is confident in Luxembourg. Laura Thorn is doing brilliantly in The Model’s projection, with Luxembourg backed to take 87 points from the viewing public tonight. “La poupée monte le son” had a strong Audience Poll showing in seventh place, scoring 99 votes, although that could be down to Switzerland being a Francophone country.

However, this appears to have solid appeal across the board. Laura’s vocals have been getting stronger throughout rehearsals, and the betting odds have responded by shortening their price point to qualify. But another caveat is that, as they’ve only been in one modern Eurovision, it’s the country The Model has the least data on!

Miriana Conte second rehearsal – Malta5th Place – Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”We’re into The Model’s top five songs from Semi-Final Two, now, and next on the list is Malta. Miriana Conte’s “Serving” (retitled for obvious reasons) has been serving up a storm throughout the pre-parties and has been strongly backed for televote success. However, there has been some drift in the odds in the past few days.

Malta came fourth in the Audience Poll with a solid 112 votes, but it’s not tracking like the televote hoover that some were expecting. One thing to note, though, is that Malta has far fewer natural allies in voting than other nations. That means its projected score of 99 points here is far more down to the strength of Miriana’s entry, and doesn’t have help from any neighbours.

Go-Jo rehearsing Milkshake Man for Australia at St. Jakobshalle4th Place – Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”Australia looks to be shaking up the semi-final, too. Go-Jo is up in fourth place with The Model ahead of tonight’s show, with “Milkshake Man” scoring 114 points in this simulation. Opening the programme tonight looks to be giving Go-Jo the boost he needs, and the song’s happy-go-lucky and comedic tone appears to be winning the audience over.

Australia placed a brilliant third in last night’s Audience Poll, surprising many with 124 votes taken outside in Basel for it. After a year away from the final, then, Australia looks set to return to Saturday night Eurovision to mark its first decade in the contest. All you have to do is get a guy who can pull off a shirtless kneeslide.

JJ rehearsing Wasted Love for Austria at St. Jakobshalle3rd Place – Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”Austria stands as one of the main favourites to win the Eurovision Song Contest outright this year. But in The Model, it’s behind two countries in its own semi-final. There are a lot of reasons for this – JJ’s appeal is more to the juries than the two songs above it, and it appears that the highly stylised staging might be polarising.

This projection is despite Austria only being three from winning last night’s Audience Poll with 333 votes. But there are big caveats to that – Austria is Switzerland’s direct neighbour, and that means it’s much more likely you’ll get an Austrian voting for their own country in the poll. All of that means Austria is being projected more conservatively here at 123 points.

Image source: Alma Bengtsson / EBU2nd Place – Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”Without needing to discuss why, it’s easy to see that Israel’s entries behave differently from every other country’s songs. The main way to see this is to listen to “New Day Will Rise” – a textbook Eurovision power ballad. While these kinds of entries are usually to juries what a flame is to a moth, Israel is of course tracking to do much better in the public vote.

This is despite Israel placing a fairly average fifth in the Audience Poll, taking 112 votes last night. But that can be misleading – people are more likely to vote for this song in a quieter way than others. Because of this, Israel should have a very strong televote base in this semi-final, and The Model backs that base to deliver Yuval 168 points tonight.

Erika Vikman rehearsing ICH KOMME for Finland at St. JakobshalleWINNER – Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”Finally, the winner of this semi-final in The Model’s projection is Erika Vikman. After her victory at their national final UMK earlier this year, Erika had drifted in the odds slightly – in many ways overshadowed by the Finns representing Sweden this year. However, she’s moved back up in the odds and The Model thinks she’s going to take the most points tonight.

Finland is projected to score 179 points from the viewing public tonight. Not only are they growing again in the odds slightly, but Finland winning the audience poll with 336 votes shows real strength. It’s clear that this performance is working in the arena and its impressing many on the broadcast, too – and closing the show is the best spot you can get!

Now, though, it’s time to see whether The Model is right. Tomorrow, after the second semi-final of Eurovision 2025, we’ll see whether it’s gotten all ten qualifiers right or if there is a surprise the system hasn’t seen coming.

And, on Saturday, The Model will do what it is built to do – predict the winner and every single position and point of the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025. Make sure to follow Eurovoix across social media to find out when the predictions come out!

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Today on the Eurovoix Podcast, we react to a semi-final full of shocks – and look ahead to the next with two stars looking to qualify.

James Stephenson is your host in Basel as, only minutes after the results were announced, he and the team react to the big stories of the night. Neil Farren and Sem Anne van Dijk join just metres from the St. Jakobshalle Arena to go through all the qualifiers and non-qualifiers – from Belgium’s shock exit to Portugal’s incredible inclusion.

We’ve also got all the reaction from the rest of our team who were watching Eurovision at home to the results of last night. Not only that, we’ll be running through which songs are where in the Grand Final running order, and at one point Sem Anne van Dijk makes an elaborate hot chocolate order.

And we’re not just looking back – we march on towards Semi-Final 2! We’ll run through the 16-strong lineup for Thursday’s show and speak to two artists fighting for a place in the final – Klavdia from Greece and Princ from Serbia!

So if you love Eurovision, go there with us. Listen to Wrap-Up throughout the contest in Basel, and make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts to make sure you don’t miss a moment!

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Following last night’s first semi final, we have our first 10 countries that qualified for the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest on Saturday.

Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Iceland: Væb – “Róa“
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja“
San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia“
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato“
Portugal: Napa – “Deslocado“
Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”

The Model Achieved 90% AccuracyThe Model, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, managed to predict nine of the qualifiers for Saturday’s Grand Final. The one that it didn’t see coming, like many, was Portugal, with NAPA’s “Deslocado” springing a huge surprise to qualify. Belgium was the song The Model thought would make it instead, and it projected it would come second in this semi-final – now we know that prediction was a long way off!

Your Voix Achieved 90% AccuracyWith the semi finals being 100% televote, it’s no surprise that there was a lot of overlap in countries that advanced to the grand final both here and on the actual show tonight. While Belgium were a respectable sixth in Your Voix, they did not manage to advance and instead their space went to Portugal who were much less liked last month when our readers were asked to vote.

The Betting Odds Achieved 80% AccuracyThe betting odds yesterday were correct on 8 of the 10 qualifiers, while Cyprus and Belgium were better favoured, neither managed to advance and instead it was Portugal and Iceland that managed to advance to the grand final on Saturday. The betting odds were the only source of the three to not correctly identify Iceland as a qualifier, while Portugal successful managed to advance despite none of the three sources forecasting it.

The Eurovision Song Contest 2025 will continue on Thursday with the second semi final in Basel, Switzerland. 16 countries will be competing for the final 10 spaces in Saturday’s Grand Final.

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Tonight’s semi-final will see the first 15 hopeful countries take to the stage in a bid to take one of the 10 spaces available for them in the grand final. As has been the case since 2023, tonight’s results will be determined by 100% televoting, with the juries not having a say until Saturday’s grand final.

The ModelFollowing The Model’s most recent update, the latest data simulation is forecasting the following 10 countries will advance to the grand final:

Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”
Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato“
San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia“
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja“
Iceland: Væb – “Róa“

Your VoixIn April we tasked our reader to vote in a simulated version of semi final 1, these are the 10 entries that advanced to the grand final:

Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm”
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie”
Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja”
Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia”
Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato”
Iceland: Væb – “Róa”

Betting OddsAs of today, currently the most recent betting odds are suggesting these are the most likely qualifiers in tonight’s show:

Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato“
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”
Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja“
Cyprus: Theo Evan – “Shh”
Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia“

OverallAll three elements are predicting that Sweden will have the easiest ride in tonight’s semi final, topping all three.

Estonia, Albania, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, San Marino, Ukraine and Poland are all favoured to go through according to all three sources to varying levels. Interestingly Albania’s position is far more positive in Your Voix where they’re close to challenging the win in second place, compared to in The Model where they’re forecast to struggle but still come 8th. Belgium’s position however is much more convincing at second in The Model, compared to both Your Voix and the betting odds where they’re sixth most likely to qualify.

Your Voix and The Model’s list of 10 qualifiers are identical, the only discrepancy compared to current betting odds is Cyprus who they are tipping to go through in 8th place at the expense of Iceland who both Your Voix and The Model forecast will just squeak into the final in 10th place.

Tomorrow we dissect the qualifiers of tonight’s show and compare which of the three results above were most accurate.

Eurovision 2025 Semi-Final OneThe 69th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest begins this evening with the first Semi-Final live from Basel. A total of fifteen countries are competing this evening for ten places in the Grand Final on Saturday night. Hosting the competition this evening are Hazel Brugger and Sandra Studer.

The running order for the show is as follows:

Iceland: Væb – “Róa“
Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja“
Slovenia: Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left“
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato“
Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”
Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Portugal: Napa – “Deslocado“
Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
Azerbaijan: Mamagama – “Run with U”
San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia“
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake”
Cyprus: Theo Evan – “Shh”

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As tradition goes, it is time to reveal who the team at Eurovoix.com thinks will be qualifying tonight from the First Semi-Final of the Eurovision Song Contest.

With fifteen songs competing in the first Semi-Final tonight, only ten can make it through to the final on Saturday night. With our team members having given their views on the songs, our qualifiers are in bold:

Iceland: Væb – “Róa“
Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja“
Slovenia: Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left“
Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato“
Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”
Sweden: KAJ – “Bara bada bastu”
Portugal: Napa – “Deslocado“
Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
Azerbaijan: Mamagama – “Run with U”
San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia“
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm“
Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la vie“
Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake”
Cyprus: Theo Evan – “Shh”

As a team, we all agreed that Poland, Ukraine, Sweden, Norway, Albania and the Netherlands would qualify for the Grand Final.

The majority of the team thought that Estonia are also going to qualify, with just one writer saying otherwise, Belgium were 2 short of a clean sweep and Cyprus were 3 short. Iceland took the final space but much less convincingly that the rest of the pack. San Marino narrowly missed out with just 1 fewer person predicting them to qualify than Iceland.

The first semi final comes to you live tonight from St. Jakobshalle in Basel, Switzerland. Find out where you can watch the first semi-final of the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest here.

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, has made its official prediction for Semi-Final One of Eurovision 2025 today.

‘The Model’ is predicting that Sweden will comfortably win the first semi-final, with KAJ’s song “Bara Bada Bastu” projected to score 184 points in tonight’s public vote. If it achieved that score, Sweden’s song would score more than “Cha Cha Cha” and “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” in its semi-final.

In this official prediction, the system also predicts the five countries that will miss out on Saturday’s final. Cyprus is projected to exit at the semi-final stage, and will join Slovenia, Portugal, Croatia and Azerbaijan on the sidelines if this projection is exactly right. This means that Iceland and San Marino are now both predicted to qualify for the Grand Final.

Today’s prediction of Semi-Final One takes everything we know into account. It includes data from the current betting odds, community song rankings and polls, and also includes the findings from last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, jointly organised by Eurovoix. As a result, The Model’s prediction attempts to be the most accurate of tonight’s show.

Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:

Also, if you want to learn more about The Model, it was recently featured in a stream from YouTuber ESC Gabe yesterday. Featuring myself (James, The Model’s creator), I tried to offer some insight into what The Model does to calculate possible Eurovision results, and answered some questions about it with both Gabe and his audience.

The ResultSemi-Final One’s Official Prediction from ‘The Model’Now, let’s get into the full results of The Model’s prediction of Semi-Final One.Mamagama rehearsing Run With U for Azerbaijan at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU15th Place – Azerbaijan: Mamagama – “Run With U”The Model predicts that Azerbaijan will finish in last place in this semi-final. “Run With U” from Mamagama is expected to score just a singular point tonight, which is projected to come from Ukraine. Azerbaijan finished with just 13 votes in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll out of 1643 total responses.

“Run With U”, then, seems to be struggling to connect with audiences based on current data. Not only that, Azerbaijan has been dealt a difficult draw and is lacking voting allies. It’s positioning in the running order after Belgium, which appears to be a big winner from Monday’s rehearsals, also appears to be working against it.

Marko Bošnjak rehearsing Poison Cake for Croatia at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU14th Place – Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake”One place above, Marko Bosnjak is predicted to score 11 points in tonight’s semi-final with his song “Poison Cake”. The song has struggled to find a foothold in the odds since its victory at Croatia’s national final, Dora, and today’s prediction appears to show that it has been unable to generate momentum from Monday’s rehearsal and jury show.

Croatia picked up 18 votes in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, which also placed it in 14th there. Unfortunately, it’s also dropped by ten points from The Model’s most recent projection on Sunday, suggesting that the full reveal of the performance on stage hasn’t helped Croatia’s chances at the contest.

NAPA rehearsing Deslocado for Portugal at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU13th Place – Portugal: NAPA – “Deslocado”Coming in 13th according to The Model is Portugal. “Deslocado” by NAPA is one of the more understated songs of this semi-final, with it projected to be a song far more favourable with the juries than most in the lineup. However, with all the power lying with the public vote, NAPA appear to be facing an uphill battle to qualify.

The five-piece band’s song has climbed slightly on Sunday with two extra points. But it appears to be struggling mainly because of the running order, where they have to perform after heavy favourites Sweden. Portugal placed 12th in the Eurovision Audience Poll with 29 votes as well, meaning audiences in Basel don’t seem to love this either.

Klemen rehearsing How Much Time Do We Have Left for Slovenia at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU12th Place – Slovenia: Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left?”In 12th, The Model is far less bullish than the bookmakers on Klemen’s qualification chances. While it’s currently seen as a strong contender to qualify in the betting odds, The Model has it scoring just 14 points in tonight’s semi-final. It could be because that’s a ballad, which on average are far more jury-friendly, but are there other factors at play?

Slovenia’s position in the running order, between Poland and Estonia, is a difficult one to perform in. The Eurovision Audience Poll placed this in joint 10th place with 39 votes, although from personal experience a lot of people voting for it openly told us it made them cry. That could mean a strong reaction from TV viewers tonight, and this is the one prediction I’m personally least confident on.

Theo Evan rehearsing Shh for Cyprus at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU11th Place – Cyprus: Theo Evan – “Ssh”The biggest news from The Model’s Semi-Final One prediction, though, is undoubtedly Cyprus. Despite an elaborate staging from Sergio Jaen and being in its top ten since it began making projections, rehearsals from Monday have sent Cyprus down to 11th in The Model. It’s predicted to score 54 points tonight, but still miss out on Saturday’s big show.

The song placed joint 10th in last night’s Audience Poll with Slovenia, taking 39 votes from audiences inside the St. Jakobshalle Arena. The huge odds drop appears to be led by a concern over Theo Evan’s vocals on stage more than anything else – many who voted for Cyprus last night told me that they were voting based on how cool the staging looked.

VÆB rehearsing RÓA for Iceland at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU10th Place – Iceland: VÆB – “Róa”Into the qualifiers now – and in 10th place, The Model is predicting that VÆB will steal the last spot in the Grand Final with their song “Róa”, scoring 68 points from the public. Iceland are opening tonight’s semi-final, which is always a strong spot in the running order, and it appears their fun staging connected with many who watched Monday’s jury show.

Iceland placed a strong eighth place in last night’s Audience Poll with 106 votes – only 5 votes away from sixth place. Speaking from personal experience, many of the people voting for Iceland were often kids and teenagers too. The Minecraft-influenced staging, then, may do enough to convince a younger demographic to take Iceland into the final.

Justyna Steczkowska rehearsing GAJA for Poland at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU9th Place – Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja”Poland is predicted to come in 9th by The Model, with Justyna Steczkowska projected to score 72 points with “Gaja”. The song also placed ninth in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll with 62 votes. Poland is also performing in position 2, which is known as the “death slot” among Eurovision fans, making this arguably more impressive.

Poland’s odds improvements throughout the last few days seem to have been driven by Justyna’s high-energy performance, including her hanging from ropes above the stage at one point. While “Gaja” is seven points down on The Model’s Sunday projection, it’s still predicted to have what it takes to qualify.

Shkodra Elektronike rehearsing Zjerm for Albania at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU8th Place – Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm”Perhaps one of the most surprising projections by The Model is that Albania will only come in eighth place tonight with 75 points. “Zjerm” by Shkodra Elektronike is a huge fan favourite, with an impressive and immersive staging, and it’s scored well in the community rankings and in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, coming fifth with 131 votes.

However, there are some things that may be bringing Albania’s ceiling a bit lower. Firstly, many bookmakers aren’t willing to set the kind of odds that would make Albania look like a contender for victory. Secondly, while they placed highly in the audience poll, there’s a huge Albanian diaspora here in Switzerland – if anything, it placed lower than expected.

Gabry Ponte rehearsing Tutta L’Italia for San Marino at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU7th Place – San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia”And The Model’s biggest surprise? The huge rise for “Tutta l’Italia” from San Marino. Gabry Ponte’s song has climbed 30 points from Sunday’s projection to today’s prediction, with San Marino now projected to sail through to Saturday with 84 points. This is mainly driven by a phenomenal showing in last night’s Audience Poll, coming fourth with 134 votes.

From my personal experience, many who voted for the song did it singing its catchy hook as they came out of the arena. Despite some concerns from fans over the staging, which places Ponte rather than the singers at centre-stage, it’s the song that seems to be driving this into the final. With betting odds also shortening, it’s looking more likely that San Marino makes it.

Tommy Cash rehearsing Espresso Macchiato for Estonia at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU6th Place – Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato”In sixth place, The Model predicts Tommy Cash to finish slightly lower than many bookmakers are expecting. “Espresso Macchiato” is sixth in this projection, scoring 89 points from the public tonight if The Model is 100% right. This is despite a strong showing in last night’s Audience Poll, finishing in third with 138 votes.

The biggest concern for Estonia, at least in The Model’s eyes, has been the draw. Estonia is without its main allies Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in this semi-final, all of whom would have been expected to give Tommy Cash big points. But the fact that many outside St. Jakobshalle voted for this suggests it will do very well in the final – even if many called it “Latte Macchiato”!

Claude rehearsing Cest La Vie for Netherlands at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU5th Place – Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la Vie”Claude is in fifth place with The Model, with “C’est la Vie” projected to take 99 points in tonight’s show to sail through to the final. This is despite concerns that emerged through rehearsal week about Claude’s vocals in the 30-second clip released of the performance. This led to the song dropping in the odds and falling in The Model’s Sunday update.

However, a stronger performance in the jury show last night appears to have assuaged bettors concerns about Claude’s potential. With a better vocal, the song has actually climbed by a point since Sunday. But the big indication that Claude is doing well with the public came from last night’s Audience Poll, where it came an excellent second place with 197 votes.

Kyle Alessandro rehearsing Lighter for Norway at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU4th Place – Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”The Model is more bullish, though, about Norway. Although it is down by six points on Sunday, Kyle Alessandro is predicted to finish a strong fourth in this semi-final with 103 points. While Estonia is a country hurt by the allocation draw, Norway is one that has benefitted – close neighbours like Sweden and Iceland are voting here.

As a result, Norway is predicted not only to score high in the Nordics, but earn solid points from many countries in this semi-final. Kyle’s performance also appears to be going down well with younger, female fans – at least based on the responses to me in the Audience Poll. Norway placed seventh there with 110 votes, but this appears a solid bet to qualify.

Ziferblat rehearsing Bird of Pray for Ukraine at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU3rd Place – Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”Entering the top 3, this prediction may appear shocking to many who saw last night’s Audience Poll. That’s because while Ukraine is predicted to come third by The Model tonight with 116 points, the Audience Poll has Ziferblat’s “Bird of Pray” in 13th place. It got just 23 votes from people leaving the arena, who appeared to prefer other entries to this one.

However, Ukraine’s strong positioning here is based on one key factor – diaspora. While the circumstances leading to it aren’t worth repeating, the Ukrainian diaspora is exceptionally strong throughout many countries in Europe. And, with many wanting to show support to the country, The Model is predicting that kind of vote could still lead to high points.

Red Sebastian rehearsing Strobe Lights for Belgium at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU2nd Place – Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”In the runner-up spot, there’s another surprise. Despite being as low as ninth in the qualification odds in this semi-final, The Model predicts Belgium to come in second in tonight’s show with 120 points. “Strobe Lights” stunned many in the Eurovision press room yesterday during rehearsals, combining impressive camerawork with a huge lead vocal from Red Sebastian.

That performance appears to have made many bookmakers and bettors back Belgium. Their odds have shortened considerably both to qualify and to win the contest outright, and a Top 10 place in the Grand Final is beginning to look likely. Although they only came sixth in the Audience Poll with 111 votes, though, I know one mattered more – Red Sebastian’s mother voted for her son’s entry.

KAJ rehearsing Bara Bada Bastu for Sweden at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBUWINNER – Sweden: KAJ – “Bara Bada Bastu”Finally, then, the winner of this semi-final is predicted to be Sweden. KAJ have been leading the Eurovision odds for weeks, so this projection is not at all unsurprising. It’s the scale of it, though, which draws a sharp breath – 184 points is a simply huge score. It means that KAJ are projected to score more than 10 points on average from every country voting.

The scale of this victory is backed up by last night’s Audience Poll, where Sweden romped ahead with 346 votes – 23.1% of all responses. KAJ’s entry is not only getting a lot of love with audiences in the arena, but it’s also predicted to have jury appeal, too. At the moment, it appears KAJ are not only shoe-ins to win tonight, but that it will be hard to deny them on Saturday.

Now, though, it’s time to see whether The Model is right. Tomorrow, after the first semi-final of Eurovision 2025, we’ll see whether it’s gotten all ten qualifiers right or if there is a surprise the system hasn’t seen coming. And, on Thursday, The Model will make its final prediction for Semi-Final Two, as well. Make sure to follow Eurovoix across social media to find out when the predictions come out!

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With the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 just around the corner, get prepared for the live shows with scorecards.

If you haven’t already made your mind up as to which of the artists should qualify, or if you’re ready to change your mind after watching the artists perform live, be sure to download the Eurovoix scorecard for the Semi-Finals.

Semi-Final One – May 13Download your scorecard here.

Semi-Final Two – May 15Download your scorecard here.

To get the most out of our coverage of this year’s contest in Basel, make sure to follow us on all of our social media platforms.

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Today on the Eurovoix Podcast, it’s Eurovision week – and we’re hearing from the stars of Semi-Final 1 as they prepare for the performance of their lives.

James Stephenson hosts today’s Wrap-Up in Basel as we chat to some of the biggest contenders at this year’s contest. You’ll hear from Cyprus’s Theo Evan about the staging he calls “impossible”, speak to Klemen about his heartfelt ballad “How Much Time Do We Have Left”, and chat to Justyna Steczkowska about coming back to Eurovision after 30 years with “Gaja”.

And, not only that, we speak to the contest favourites KAJ from Sweden about “Bara Bada Bastu” – and we have a special intro from them!

Across the rest of this Monday episode, we’ll wrap up the 15 songs competing in the first semi-final, and the rest of our Eurovoix Podcast team will tell you what they’re expecting and hoping for from Tuesday night’s show. We’ll also chat about the Big 5 and Switzerland as their stagings are revealed ahead of show week.

So if you love Eurovision, go there with us. Listen to Wrap-Up throughout the contest in Basel, and make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts to make sure you don’t miss a moment!

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, is still predicting Sweden to win with less than a week to go until the final.

It’s latest update suggests that KAJ and their song “Bara Bada Bastu” is capable of breaking the 600 point barrier – The Model projects 271 with the national juries and 335 with the public vote for Sweden, which would give it 606 points overall.

Behind them, France and Austria maintain their places in second and third, and there is a new country in The Model’s top five. Finland have entered into fifth place with “Ich Komme” by Erika Vikman, as the Netherlands and Claude have dropped into sixth.

Not only that, The Model is projecting two different countries in the Grand Final on Saturday compared to its last update. However, this is the final ‘nowcast’ that The Model will make – on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, we will use it to make an official prediction of each show of Eurovision 2025 in Basel.

What is The Model?KAJ have been projected as the favourite to win the contest by The Model, a system that uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns, and even internal musical statistics to try to predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest.

Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi-finals and final of the contest. This prediction is not a forecast, as such, but a ‘nowcast’ – a calculation of what would happen if Eurovision 2025 was held right now.

Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:

Now, let’s get straight into what The Model says would happen at Eurovision 2025 if it was held today.

Semi-Final OneSemi-Final One, According to ‘The Model’In the first semi-final of Eurovision 2025, The Model has reversed its prediction for the tenth spot in the Grand Final. San Marino are now being projected back in tenth with Iceland, despite gaining points compared to last week, falling back to eleventh. This battle between Gabry Ponte and VÆB is projected to be extremely close, though.

Further up the board, Sweden strengthen their points total to 181, with Ukraine also gaining points in second. The Netherlands fall to fifth following the rehearsals, with Norway climbing into the third spot. Belgium stay fourth, Estonia and Cyprus gain a place each to sixth and seventh, and Albania falls back to eighth.

Poland are in ninth place, gaining a few points from last week, and then Croatia, Slovenia, Portugal and Azerbaijan are joining Iceland on the sidelines for Saturday’s Grand Final. However, The Model will still make a final prediction for the first semi-final of Eurovision 2025 on Tuesday.

Semi-Final TwoSemi-Final Two, According to ‘The Model’In the second semi-final, there is also a change in the top 10 – and it’s a surprising one. Off the back of the rehearsals in the past week, The Model is projecting that Armenia could qualify for the Eurovision 2025 final. Parg and his song “Survivor” is projected to take Greece’s place, with “Asteromata” by Klavdia missing out by just five points at this stage.

Further ahead, Finland remain out in front in this semi-final, with Israel very close behind. Austria have climbed two places to go into third, with Malta falling to fourth. Australia shake up the leaderboard as they go into fifth place, and Luxembourg have also gained two positions on last week as they sit in sixth. Czechia is the big faller in this semi-final, losing 38 points and three positions, lying in seventh.

Lithuania drop one place to eighth, and Ireland stay in ninth while adding 14 points to their total from last week’s update. Following Armenia and Greece, the battle for qualification appears to be close, though. Latvia and Serbia have gained points in 12th and 13th, Denmark are not far away in 14th, and Montenegro and Georgia are facing a more difficult battle in 15th and 16th.

Grand FinalThe Top 5 According to ‘The Model’Let’s break down The Model’s latest grand final projection in stages:

Juries

| Country | Jury Points | Movement | | France | 354 | -5 | | Sweden | 271 | +17 | | Austria | 245 | -19 | | Switzerland | 234 | +24 | | Netherlands | 230 | -28 | | Czechia | 127 | +5 | | Italy | 79 | +20 | | Israel | 77 | -17 | | Belgium | 66 | +1 | | Albania | 61 | +5 | | Finland | 58 | -5 | | Norway | 55 | -1 | | Malta | 38 | +12 | | Spain | 36 | +6 | | Cyprus | 35 | +3 | | Lithuania | 33 | +7 | | United Kingdom | 31 | +5 | | Ukraine | 30 | +11 | | Germany | 27 | +4 | | Poland | 17 | +4 | | Australia | 11 | +5 | | Luxembourg | 11 | +5 | | San Marino | 8 | NEW | | Ireland | 6 | +4 | | Estonia | 4 | +1 | | Armenia | 2 | NEW |

In the jury vote, France remains incredibly strong with 354 points in The Model’s latest projection. However, Sweden’s climb to second, ahead of Austria and the Netherlands, is the most notable change here. With 271 jury points, Sweden would have a very strong start to the voting sequence – increasing its chances of winning outright.

Switzerland, off the back of the rehearsals, have climbed to fourth in The Model’s jury projection with 234 points. Further down, the loss of Greece from the final has meant there are more jury points on offer for the other countries, with many gaining a handful of points in this update. The new qualifiers, San Marino and Armenia, are projected to score just eight and two points respectively here.

Televote

| Country | Televote Points | Movement | | Sweden | 335 | -5 | | Israel | 239 | -20 | | Finland | 237 | -7 | | Austria | 203 | -6 | | France | 178 | -15 | | Estonia | 108 | -12 | | Ukraine | 107 | +45 | | Poland | 85 | +3 | | Albania | 79 | +5 | | Malta | 73 | +8 | | Italy | 64 | +12 | | Lithuania | 61 | -1 | | Germany | 53 | +1 | | Belgium | 50 | 0 | | Norway | 49 | +6 | | Netherlands | 48 | -49 | | Cyprus | 42 | -1 | | San Marino | 39 | NEW | | Spain | 30 | +5 | | Armenia | 28 | NEW | | Australia | 28 | +6 | | United Kingdom | 21 | +1 | | Czechia | 20 | -2 | | Luxembourg | 14 | +4 | | Ireland | 8 | +3 | | Switzerland | 7 | +6 |

In the public vote, Sweden continue to stretch out their lead. While they have fallen by 5 points to 335 in this update, their other challengers have taken further hits. France is down by 15, Israel is down by 20, and the Netherlands has lost almost half of its public vote points week-on-week.

Ukraine are the big beneficiaries, gaining 45 points with the public vote, and San Marino and Armenia both do better here with 39 and 28 points apiece. Towards the bottom, most countries are staying roughly where they are, with Switzerland climbing from a low of a singular point last week to seven in this update.

Overall Result

| Country | Overall Points | Movement | | Sweden | 606 | +12 | | France | 532 | -20 | | Austria | 448 | -25 | | Israel | 316 | -37 | | Finland | 295 | -12 | | Netherlands | 278 | -77 | | Switzerland | 241 | +30 | | Czechia | 147 | +3 | | Italy | 143 | +32 | | Albania | 140 | +10 | | Ukraine | 137 | +56 | | Belgium | 116 | +1 | | Estonia | 112 | -11 | | Malta | 111 | +20 | | Norway | 104 | +5 | | Poland | 102 | +7 | | Lithuania | 94 | +6 | | Germany | 80 | +5 | | Cyprus | 77 | +2 | | Spain | 66 | +11 | | United Kingdom | 52 | +6 | | San Marino | 47 | NEW | | Australia | 39 | +11 | | Armenia | 30 | NEW | | Luxembourg | 25 | +9 | | Ireland | 14 | +7 |

Finally, then, The Model projects that Sweden is further in front than ever. KAJ and “Bara Bada Bastu” is up to 606 points, giving it a 74-point advantage over France and a 158-point lead over Austria in third place. Israel and Finland make up the top five, while it’s the Netherlands, Switzerland, Czechia, Italy and Albania taking positions 6-10.

But the biggest changes are still to come. From Tuesday, The Model will make its final predictions for Eurovision 2025 across the two semi-finals and Grand Final. Make sure to follow Eurovoix across social media to find out when the predictions come out, and we’ll see just how accurate the system really is.

Image Source: EBU / Sarah Louise Bennett

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Tonight, the 22nd edition of the Junior Eurovision Song Contest will take place live from Caja Mágica in Madrid, Spain. And while we have a few hours left before the live broadcast, the Eurovoix team has decided to reveal some of our all-time favourite Junior Eurovision entries.

17 countries will compete during the 2024 Junior Eurovision Song Contest this evening from 18:00 CET from Madrid, but we will reveal some of the favourite entries of Junior Eurovision’s past from the team below:

James S: Armenia 2021 – Malena – “Qami Qami”Image Source: Andres Putting / EBU“The first, and so far only, time that I’ve heard a Junior Eurovision song and thought it could compete at the adult contest. Exceptionally produced, sung and crafted, this is one of those rare pop songs that just works on every level – and it’s sneaked into a kids show!”

Rafaell: Georgia 2022 – Mariam Bigvava – “I Believe”“’I Believe’ is such a monumental moment for what a Junior Eurovision song can be. An excellent blend of contemporary and traditional Georgian sounds with talented Mariam’s great vocals. Although a simple English chorus, it doesn’t need to be more complicated for such a simple message.”

Fran, Steven and Emily: Poland 2019 – Viki Gabor – “Superhero”Image Source: Thomas Hanses“My favourite JESC entry is Superhero by Viki Gabor. When the song was selected as the host country’s entry, I instantly knew it was going to be tough one to beat. Such a catchy tune!

Fast forward to the day of the contest, myself and Anthony were sat in the arena in Gliwice, ready for the show to start. Surrounded by hundreds of Polish families and many international Eurofans, the screams and cheers of support when Viki entered the stage was something else! Her performance alongside her dancers was excellent, and came across really well on-stage as well as on the tv.

During voting time, it was incredibly tense. But I (and I’m sure Anthony and Neil too) will never forget the roar in the arena when Poland was announced as the winners on home soil! They made history that day at the first country to win back-to-back contests, and rightfully so. What a banger.” – Emily**

“My favourite JESC entry ever is Superhero. I think 2019 was an excellent year, I really liked Bim Bam Toi and Pepelny as well.” – Fran**

“Not only is it the best winning song, but it’s the best song to come out of JESC period. It is such a fantastic pop song filled with so much positivity. Being half Polish, I know how beautiful the country is and how poetic at times the language can be, so I really appreciate these lyrics.

Viki sings about climbing to the top of the mountain, being free and finding ourselves. There is a subtle warning as well, that the clock is ticking, but if we come together we can make the difference.It truly is a song for our time. A song of hope and what can be.” – Steven**

Darshan: United Kingdom 2022 – Freya Skye – “Lose My Head”“2022 was the year when I properly immersed myself in the Junior Eurovision atmosphere, as it was the year I joined Eurovoix. And in the same year, the United Kingdom made a historic return to the Junior Eurovision Song Contest, after an immensely successful result at Eurovision 2022 earlier in the year.

Freya Skye added even more success to Sam Ryder’s 2nd place at Eurovision 2022 – finishing 5th and winning the televote. Everything about the song, the staging and performance was just 100% impeccable. She persevered on stage while ill, but she delivered an even stronger performance in Yerevan. Words couldn’t describe how proud everyone was of Freya and we do hope she could represent the United Kingdom at the Eurovision Song Contest in future with a song and performance that’s just as high-quality (as ‘Lose My Head’).”

Anthony: Sweden 2009 – Mimmi Sandén – “Du”“(Du) is the first ever song that I saw in a Junior Eurovision Song Contest and it left a lasting impression on me. It was exciting to see kids of my age performing songs in languages I’d never really heard before. The song sounded so modern yet different to what I was used to and made me curious about the wider world. Looking back it’s stood the test of time and really wouldn’t be out of place at Eurovision. While Junior has massively evolved since 2009, the kid inside me gets taken back to that year every time the contest roles around.”

Rebecca: Belarus 2017 – Helena Meraai – “I Am The One”Belarus at Junior Eurovision. Image source: Thomas Hanses | EBU“(I Am The One) resonated with me so much at the time of the 2017 contest. It was honestly such an amazing performance and it was a pure bop.”

Alistair and Meg: France 2020 – Valentina – “J’imagine”“My favourite is “J’imagine” because for me it was when we were all going through crazy uncertain times in lockdown at the time and this performance was just 3 minutes of pure happiness. No giant gimmicks, nothing too over produced just a group of kids having the time of their lives. Thoroughly deserved the win and paved the way for things to come for France.” – Alistair**

“I’d say J’imagine is my fave, as JESC that year came after a cancelled Eurovision and it felt like a bit of a return to normal even if it was still affected by covid. This happy little song about imagining a world where we can hug each other again just felt like a light in the dark, so I have a really positive memory from it.” – Meg**

Yesaac: Spain 2019 – Melani Garcia – “Marte”Image Source: Thomas Hanses“It’s been really hard to just pick one JESC entry as an all time favourite. But I decided to go with Spain 2019 – Melani Garcia’s “Marte”. It was their big return after years of not participating at JESC, and they absolutely nailed it.

The song’s theme of conservation and protecting our planet hit hard, especially with those powerful vocals [those last few notes were wow!!] and the stunning staging that brought the message to life. The camera work and overall performance were so polished. It was captivating and impactful. Even years later, this is one of the performances that my family still talks about.”

Tonight seventeen countries will compete to win the Junior Eurovision 2024 trophy, in the running order as listed below:

Italy: Simone Grande – “Pigiama Party”
Estonia: Annabelle – “Tänavad”
Albania: Nikol Çabeli – “Vallëzoj”
Armenia: Leo – “Cosmic Friend”
Cyprus: Maria Pissarides – “Crystal Waters”
France: Titouan – “Comme ci, comme ça”
North Macedonia: Ana and Aleksej – “Marathon”
Poland: Dominik Arim – “All Together”
Georgia: Andria Putkaradze – “To My Mom”
Spain: Chloe DelaRosa – “Como la Lola”
Germany: Bjarne – “Save the Best For Us”
Netherlands: Stay Tuned – “Music”
San Marino: Idols SM – “Come noi”
Ukraine: Artem Kotenko – “Hear Me Now”
Portugal: Victoria Nicole – “Esperança”
Ireland – Enya Cox Dempsey – “Le chéile”
Malta: Ramires Sciberras – “Stilla ċkejkna”

Image Source: EBU / Corinne Cumming

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This month on the Eurovoix Podcast, the saga of the summer comes to an end as the Netherlands confirm they’ll compete in Eurovision 2025.

Steven Heap is your host as we dissect the Dutch decision, and catch up with all the latest news from the world of the world’s biggest song contest.

There’s the UK’s plans for finding their next Eurovision hit, an exclusive chat with Swedish journalist Tobbe Ek about the current state of Melodifestivalen (and those Måns Zelmerlöw rumours), and there’s also a look ahead to the Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Madrid next month.

We haven’t forgotten its Halloween this week either – so the Eurovoix Podcast team is facing its fears and telling the tales of their ultimate Eurovision horror stories at the end of the show!

So give us a listen, if you dare – the Eurovoix Podcast gives you the latest Eurovision news, wherever you are.

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The Eurovoix Podcast is back with another packed episode with everything that has happened in Eurovision this September and more.

Franciska van Waarden is your host as we have the honour of speaking to Dr. Conradin Cramer, the President of the cantonal government of Basel-Stadt.

In an exclusive interview, he spoke to James Stephenson about the city’s plans for hosting the contest, the challenges that come with it and how exciting it is to have the Eurovision Song Contest at your doorstep.

We also have a look at the national and internal selection news, including Greece’s new national final, while we try to find out why countries change their selection method. There’s also an update on everything you need to know about the upcoming Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Madrid this November.

You’ll find all that and more on a brand-new Eurovoix Podcast – the latest Eurovision news, wherever you are.

Image Source: Kanton Basel-Stadt

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Dr. Conradin Cramer, President of the cantonal government of Basel-Stadt, has spoken to the Eurovoix Podcast about Basel’s Eurovision plans.

During our interview, which is available today on the latest episode of Wrap-Up, he opened up about the bidding process, the challenges of staging the contest, and the city’s plans for a unique Eurovision in a medieval city.

Once Switzerland won the contest, Basel’s plans to bid for Eurovision 2025 were already in motion. Dr. Cramer had already begun speaking to colleagues about the possibility of Basel making a bid before Nemo won in Malmö this year with “The Code”.

From there, the city had to move fast to enter the race for Eurovision:

We had to decide within a few days [to bid], we had to put the people together within a few weeks, we had to get the funds within the same short timeframe so this was – for our political system – it was really a challenge.

Once there was alignment within Basel to go for the contest, they received a bid book from Swiss broadcaster SSG SSR and the European Broadcasting Union (EBU). The bid book covers all the criteria that a host city has to meet to stage Eurovision, from the venues and the funds to smaller details like VIP transport.

With so many requirements listed in the bid book, Conradin admitted that “it was quite heavy!” However, the Swiss politician said that it forced the bid team to think through the details of their bid, and how Eurovision would be integrated within the city:

It was more about really integrating the whole city – that was the demanding task, and I think that was the reason why we succeeded in the end.

Basel is preparing to host Eurovision for the first time – but they aren’t doing it alone. During the interview, Conradin confirmed that the city had spoken to contest organisers in Malmö and Liverpool, who hosted Eurovision in 2023.

He said that Basel’s team has taken on board some of the lessons that both cities learned when hosting Eurovision themselves:

It would be impossible to start at zero for a new host city, so that experience transfer is really important.

Now that Basel has won the bid, they are moving ahead with their plans to welcome tourists from all over Europe next May. Conradin spoke hopefully about how Basel is looking to host a unique Eurovision that fits the city’s size.

Conradin stated that “everything in Basel is literally in walking distance”, making it perfect for tourists to enjoy sustainably:

It is a huge advantage for people who are coming to a city, experiencing it without a car but by walking – everything in Basel is literally in walking distance.

Additionally, Conradin confirmed that Basel plans to keep the majority of the Eurovision venues – from the St. Jakobshalle arena which will host the live shows to the Eurovision Village and EuroClub – will be close together as well:

You do not have to travel with the subway from the venue to the ESC village to the ESC club – everything will be very short distance.

Finally, when I asked Conradin about what it meant to bring Eurovision to the city he calls home, he said that he was proud of the whole team who had worked to bring the contest to Basel in such a short timeframe.

Not only that, he thinks that Eurovision is the perfect fit for Basel, and a chance to showcase it as an international city:

We really are an international city in our daily life – and the ESC is about crossing borders or ignoring borders, and that is fantastic for us as a border city to see Europe together in our place.

While Dr. Cramer and Basel’s government are continuing to work hard on delivering their Eurovision 2025 plans next year, fans will have to wait until May 13, 15 and 17 to see the Eurovision shows in Switzerland next year.

Image Source: Kanton Basel-Stadt

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After a summer off, the Eurovoix Podcast is back for Eurovision 2025 – and the journey to Basel in Switzerland next May is just beginning.

On our first show of a brand-new Eurovision year, we find out about our new host city of Basel, discuss Montenegro returning to the competition, and chat about all the other big news you might have missed over the last few months in the world’s biggest song contest.

As the fallout from Eurovision 2024 continues, Eurovoix’s James Stephenson and Sem Anne van Dijk speak to GJ Kooijman and ESC Gabe about the latest developments in the Netherlands and Joost Klein’s situation after his disqualification in Malmö in May.

And, there was a whole other Eurovision last month – Eurovision Young Musicians! Neil Farren was watching on, and he spoke to some of the musicians themselves, including contest winner Leonard Baumgartner from Austria.

There’s all that and more on a brand-new Eurovoix Podcast – new season, new theme music, same Wrap-Up.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, we give you our immediate reactions to a dramatic, dynamic and often chaotic Grand Final of Eurovision 2024.

James Stephenson and Sem Anne van Dijk bring you to the Malmö Arena just moments after Nemo’s stunning victory for Switzerland and bring you their reactions to their victory and press conference.

And, after the disqualification of Joost Klein, we speak with GJ Kooijman from Ding-a-Dong – Een Eurovisie Songfestival Podcastabout the fallout in the Netherlands from the news. Not only that, Eurovoix’s Daniel Stridh joins us to explain why Nemo said to them that Eurovision needs some fixing.

We’ve also got the reaction from everyone in the Eurovoix Podcast team to Nemo’s win, but also other results from the night – Norway’s shock last place, the UK’s shock nil points, and Ireland’s best result at the contest since 2000.

Eurovision may be over – but the Eurovoix Podcast isn’t done yet. Find out more about a crazy day in contest history, wherever you are.

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, has made its final prediction for the contest.

The system uses real-time data such as betting odds, community rankings and historical voting patterns to try and produce the most accurate projections of Eurovision possible. For more on how The Model works, read a quick explainer here:

The final projection for Eurovision 2024 is as follows:

‘The Model’ therefore is predicting Switzerland to win the Eurovision Song Contest, with an overall score of 518 points. It predicts Switzerland to beat Israel in second place and Croatia in third place, with Greece and Italy rounding out the top 5.

Israel are predicted to win the jury vote with 296 points, followed by Switzerland with 212 points and France with 175 points. Meanwhile, Switzerland is expected to win the televote with 305 points ahead of Croatia’s 300 points, with Italy scoring 158 points in third place.

We’ll find out how accurate ‘The Model’ is after the results of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 are announced.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, we’ve reached the end of our journey – tonight, the Eurovision Song Contest will crown a new winner.

But there’s been chaos behind the scenes, as Joost Klein has been disqualified from the Eurovision Song Contest after an investigation into an incident on Thursday night, following almost 24 hours of chaos and confusion. James Stephenson and Sem Anne van Dijk bring you the latest from Malmö as it is coming in.

Beyond that, though, the Eurovoix Podcast team is here to preview tonight’s final – the big contenders, the potential surprises, the running order and the betting odds to give you the complete picture of the final before it happens.

The day we’ve all been waiting for has arrived – so sit back and prepare for it with the Eurovoix Podcast. Let the Eurovision Song Contest begin!

The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, we go back to Malmö in the minutes following Semi-Final Two of the Eurovision Song Contest.

James Stephenson and Sem Anne van Dijk bring you their reaction to the results, including countries returning to the final, big contenders falling by the wayside and Latvia stunning Europe to make it to Saturday for the first time since 2016.

You’ll also hear from the Eurovoix Podcast team as they take the results in where they watched the contest from around the world last night. And, after a late night announcement, we’ll bring you the full running order for Saturday’s Grand Final, too.

So if you loved watching Eurovision last night live, then relive it with us – live from Malmö and broadcast to the world, this is the Eurovoix Podcast.

The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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As tradition goes, it is time to reveal who the team at Eurovoix thinks will be qualifying tonight from the Second Semi-Final of the Eurovision Song Contest.

With sixteen songs competing in the Second Semi-Final tonight, only ten can make it through to the final on Saturday night. With our team members having given their views on the songs, our qualifiers are in bold:

Malta – Sarah Bonnici – “Loop”
Albania – Besa – “Titan”
Greece – Marina Satti – “Zari”
Switzerland – Nemo – “The Code”
Czechia – Aiko – “Pedestal”
Armenia – Ladaniva – “Jako”
Austria – Kaleen – “We Will Rave”
Denmark – Saba – “Sand”
Latvia – Dons – “Hollow”
San Marino – Megara – “11:11”
Georgia – Natia Busalazdze – “Firefighter”
Belgium – Mustii – “Before the Party is Over”
Estonia – 5miinust and Puuluup – “(Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi”
Israel – Eden Golan – “Hurricane”
Norway – Gåte – “Ulveham”
Netherlands – Joost Klein – “Europapa”

As a team, we all agreed that Greece, Switzerland, Armenia, Norway and the Netherlands would qualify for the Grand Final.

The majority of the team thought that Austria, Georgia, Belgium, Estonia and Israel would also qualify. Denmark narrowly missed out with two fewer people predicting them to qualify than Estonia.

Find out where you can watch the second semi-final of the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest here.

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, has made its final prediction for the results of the second semi final.

Eurovoix Launches ‘The Model’ to Predict Eurovision 2024

The final projection for the second semi final is as follows:

The Model predicts that the Netherlands will win the semi-final with 189 points from the public vote. Switzerland, Israel, Belgium, Norway, Armenia, Austria, Greece, Georgia and Estonia are projected to join them in the Grand Final. San Marino, Albania, Denmark, Czechia, Malta and Latvia are projected to miss out.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, we turn our attention to the second semi-final of Eurovision 2024.

Steven Heap is your host for Wrap-Up today as we preview tonight’s show and discuss who has the best chances to qualify and react to yesterday’s rehearsals. Sem Anne van Dijk was in the arena for last night’s jury show, and we got him to record his immediate thoughts for us, too.

Not only that, we’ll be chatting to some of the contenders performing tonight. James Washak speaks to Greece’s Marina Satti, whose song “Zari” has a staging made up of almost one single shot, while James Stephenson catches up with Denmark’s Saba as she gets ready to perform “Sand” on tonight’s show.

There’s all that as well as an update on the betting odds, how The Model’s predictions are stacking up against reality, and so much more. So get ready for another amazing night by spending your day with the Eurovoix Podcast.

The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, we take you to Malmö just moments after the conclusion of the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest.

James Stephenson watched the show live in the arena, while Sem Anne van Dijk watched live on television in the Eurovision press centre. Together, they go over all the big stories from the night, including Ireland’s first qualification in six years, strong performances from favourites Croatia and Ukraine, and the surprise exits of Poland and Australia.

You’ll also hear from the Eurovoix Podcast team who were watching the show all over the world last night to get their reaction. And, as the running order draw took place after the show, there’s a rundown of who will be performing where in Saturday’s Grand Final.

So if you want to go back over last night’s show, then do it with us – live from Malmö and broadcast to the world, this is the Eurovoix Podcast. The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, has made its final prediction for the results of the first semi final.

Eurovoix Launches ‘The Model’ to Predict Eurovision 2024

The final projection for the first semi final is as follows:

The Model predicts that Ukraine will win the semi-final with 179 points from the public vote. Croatia, Ireland, Lithuania, Finland, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Slovenia, Portugal and Poland are projected to join them in the Grand Final. Azerbaijan, Serbia, Iceland, Moldova and Australia are projected to miss out.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, the big day has finally arrived – it’s time for the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024.

We’ll bring you a preview of all the runners and riders ahead of tonight’s show, and we’ll let you know what we’ve seen so far in the first public rehearsals for this year’s contest. From the press centre in Malmö, Ben Robertson from ESC Insight joins us to discuss his thoughts on what might happen tonight as well.

And we’re also talking to the artists about to take to the stage. Teya Dora from Serbia talks about the meaning behind her entry “Ramonda”, Hera Björk tells us what it’s like to come back to Eurovision for the second time, and Marcus & Martinus update us on how their preparations to perform “Unforgettable” are going.

There’s all that as well as all the latest news from the contest, including the running order draw for the Big 5 and which celebrities and Eurovision legends will be our spokespersons this year. Hear it all on Wrap-Up – the daily news show from the Eurovoix Podcast.

The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, we bring you to the launch of Eurovision 2024 – the Turquoise Carpet.

James Stephenson has landed in Malmö and went straight from the airport to this year’s Eurovision launch. There, he chatted to more Eurovision artists than you can count with two hands, including some of the big contenders for the crown – you’ll hear from Switzerland’s Nemo, Italy’s Angelina Mango and the Europapa from the Netherlands, Joost Klein.

There’s a chance for a few deeper questions, like what Kaleen thinks about the rise of dance at Eurovision and what Aiko’s learned about grief since writing Pedestal. And there’s also time for the artists to have a bit of fun, including Dons from Latvia’s self-deprecating humour and Megara’s annoyance that 11:11 is performing in slot 10.

So, if you want to get closer to Eurovision, we’re already here. Listen to the Eurovoix Podcast all week, with a daily show to bring each part of this year’s contest to you. The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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With the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 just around the corner get prepared for the live shows with scorecards and bingo sheets.

Semi-Final One – May 7Download your scorecard here

This year Eurovoix has also prepared a special Bingo Card for you. Make sure to tick off all the boxes that apply to Semi-Final One.

Download your bingo card here

Semi-Final Two – May 9Download your scorecard here

This year Eurovoix has also prepared a special Bingo Card for you. Make sure to tick off all the boxes that apply to Semi-Final Two.

Download your bingo card here

To get the most out of our coverage of this year’s contest in Malmö, make sure to follow us on all of our social media platforms.

Like us on Facebook
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Who doesn’t love a nice picture, we’ll be posting summaries of the news and ourselves in Malmö on Instagram

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With one week until the Grand Final of Eurovision 2024, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the contest ‘The Model’ is backing Switzerland for victory.

In a new simulation, taken from data sources such as the current betting odds, community rankings and polls, ‘The Model’ believes that Nemo is still the favourite to win this year’s contest with their song ‘The Code’.

Switzerland are currently projected to score 454 points at this year’s contest, which if entirely accurate would be the lowest winning total for any song at Eurovision since the new voting system was introduced in 2016. Following them in a tie for second are Ukraine and Italy, with both countries predicted to score 422 points.

‘The Model’ uses data like odds from bookmakers, community rankings and more to create the most accurate Eurovision predictions possible. For more information on how ‘The Model’ works, read a quick explainer here:

Eurovoix Launches ‘The Model’ to Predict Eurovision 2024

Because ‘The Model’ uses current data, its projections change as the contest draws closer. The system takes the show running orders, political bias and even tactical voting into account to produce the most accurate prediction possible of what would be a valid final result.

So, if ‘The Model’ was entirely correct, what does it say will happen at Eurovision 2024?

Semi-Final OneSemi-Final One Projection (04/05)As rehearsals have begun, fans and bookmakers have been able to see the staging plans for each country. Because of this, some have seen large boosts to their winning chances, while others have fallen further down the pecking order. The new projections ‘The Model’ makes today reflect all of those changes, and that means they’re very different from last time.

The top two remains unchanged. Ukraine are expected to win the first semi-final, with Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil’s song “Teresa & Maria” getting a big boost with the bookmakers after the reveal of their staging. Behind them is Baby Lasagna and Croatia, who remain second in this semi-final despite climbing to first place in the overall odds.

The country climbing fastest, though, is Ireland. After Bambie Thug’s 30-second rehearsal clip for the song “Doomsday Blue” was unveiled, Ireland’s odds have shortened considerably. As a result, ‘The Model’ now projects them to score 135 points in the first semi-final – not just getting Ireland back to the final, but doing it comfortably.

Behind them is Silvester Belt’s “Luktelk” for Lithuania on 115 points, and Finland and Cyprus tie with 94 points in fifth and sixth places. “No Rules” and “Liar” are both high-energy songs, benefitting from the removal of the juries in this year’s contest. Both of these songs score highly, then, on the “Happiness Index”, which means they are more likely to score points from the public than the juries.

Luxembourg are predicted to go straight back to the final on their return to the contest, with “Fighter” projected on 82 points. Then, despite the odds predicting Slovenia will fall short, ‘The Model’ predicts Raiven will qualify in eighth place, and scoring 78 points to boot. This is despite Veronika leaning more towards the juries on the “Happiness Index”.

The final qualifiers, much further back in points, are predicted to be Poland and Portugal. Luna should qualify with “The Tower”, perhaps benefitting from their elaborate staging, while Iolanda’s ballad “Grito” should be able to get the support from the public to make it through despite being a change of pace from the rest of the line-up.

The countries not qualifying from Semi-Final One remain the same as in ‘The Model”s last projection. Azerbaijan lead this pack in 11th place, only 6 points behind Portugal, meaning they shouldn’t necessarily be counted out. Iceland follow closely behind, with Serbia, Moldova and surprisingly Australia bringing up the rear.

Semi-Final TwoSemi-Final Two Projection (04/05)In the second semi-final, there have been fewer changes. However, the movement in odds, polls and more has meant ‘The Model’ has adjusted its projection to match. But, given that the bookmakers are largely more confident about the outcome of Semi-Final Two than Semi-Final One, ‘The Model’ follows suit.

Predicted to win this semi-final is Joost Klein, who is closing the show with his hardstyle song “Europapa”. Despite the staging coming under some fire, with fans hoping that the inclusion of an EU-branded bird on stage was a deliberate troll, ‘The Model’ still expects that the huge support for the song will translate into plenty of points on Thursday.

Nemo and “The Code” follows in second place with a very strong showing, scoring 165 points to Joost’s 182. You might be wondering how Nemo would be projected to win the whole contest but only come second in the semi-final, but this comes down to the running order. With Switzerland performing fourth and the Netherlands last, Joost is in a much better position in this show.

Belgium follows in third, with Mustii still scoring highly despite a fall in the odds in recent weeks with “Before the Party’s Over”. Israel is projected in fourth place, and following them is Norway’s Gåte. “Ulveham” is the first song the country has sent in the Norwegian language since 2006, reflecting a rising trend of native tongues coming back to the contest.

Ladaniva is predicted to come sixth in this semi-final for Armenia, with “Jako” on 99 points. Following closely behind are Austria with “We Will Rave” on 94 points and Greece’s “Zari” on 89 points. Both Kaleen and Marina Satti’s songs may seem like televote friendly tunes, but are actually predicted to have some jury support by ‘The Model’, too.

The final qualifiers from the second semi-final are predicted to be Georgia and Estonia. Both countries have had contrasting weeks, with Georgia shooting up the odds following the release of the 30-second clip of “Firefighter”. Estonia, meanwhile, have fallen based on what some see as an underwhelming staging, but 5Minuust and Puuluup still expected to squeeze through.

The non-qualifiers are, surprisingly, headed up by San Marino. Megara’s staging has received plenty of praise on social media, and coupled with a healthy vote from Spain sees ‘The Model’ put them in 11th place. They are followed by Albania with “Titan” in 12th, Denmark who have fallen to 13th, and then Malta, Czechia and Latvia are all predicted to struggle at the back.

Grand FinalGrand Final Projection (04/05)Now, onto the Grand Final. While ‘The Model’ can make projections of the semi-finals based on the running order of the show, we don’t have that yet for the final. Because of this, every song is treated as if it was performing in the same position, with the exception of Sweden who have already been drawn to perform in first.

In this projection, the votes from the national juries put Israel in first place. Their song “Hurricane” is one of the few female ballads at this year’s contest, which is a genre that juries traditionally get behind at Eurovision. They’re projected to narrowly edge out Switzerland, scoring 199 points to Nemo’s 194, with Italy, Ukraine and France’s “Mon Amour” all scoring well.

In the public vote, however, ‘The Model’ expects the voters at home to be more sure of who their favourites are. While 199 points was enough to win the juries, three songs smash past the 200 point mark in this simulation.

Ukraine is expected to win the public vote with 271 points, with Switzerland and Italy again close behind on 260 points and 245 points respectively. Croatia and the Netherlands fare much better with the public vote than the juries, but ‘The Model’ predicts a weaker performance than many expect here to take them both out of contention.

When you combine the scores, Switzerland’s second place finishes with both the juries and the televote is enough to see them win Eurovision 2024 with 454 points. Ukraine and Italy are joint on 422 points, but Ukraine would officially finish in second due to their higher televote score. Jury winners Israel and bookies favourites Croatia would be fourth and fifth, with Europapa following for the Netherlands in sixth.

There are surprises all across the board in this projection. Most notably, ‘The Model’ projects that the juries will put Finland in last place in their vote, and it predicts both Ireland and the United Kingdom to struggle to turn recent positive momentum into points during the final. The graphic above has the full results, so you can find your favourite and see how they did there.

Future ProjectionsWith a week to go until Eurovision 2024, ‘The Model’ is not finished with its projections. Over the next few days, we’ll use the system to try and make official predictions of each show at the contest next week.

You can expect a prediction for Semi-Final One on Tuesday, Semi-Final Two on Thursday and the Grand Final on Saturday. And, after the shows, we’ll compare what the ‘The Model’ says would happen in each show with the actual results, helping us see how accurate the system truly is.

But for now, ‘The Model’ predicts that Switzerland is the favourite to triumph – we’ll just have to wait and see whether the predictions turn into reality.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, the Big 5 arrive for their first rehearsals – and they’re bringing inside the box thinking to Eurovision 2024.

Franciska van Waarden is your host as we take a look at the last stagings of this year’s contest, with the Big 5 up to bat.

Spain, Germany and Sweden are all utilising the cubes around the stage in their performances, while the UK’s Olly Alexander is taking it one step further – building a boxing locker room inside a box. We dive deep into the staging for “Dizzy” on this episode, and half of our team get quite excited about the UK’s chances.

We’ll also analyse how France and Italy’s performances are shaping up ahead of the contest next week, and just how well they could do on the scoreboard. And elsewhere in Malmö, we catch up with two of the most unique acts at this year’s contest – Norway’s Gåte and Slovenia’s Raiven.

There’s all that as well as new interval acts, new betting odds and more from the world of the world’s biggest song contest. We’re almost ready for show week – so get ready with the Eurovoix Podcast.

The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. From next week, we’ll have a new show every day of the contest – that’s Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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On today’s episode of the Eurovoix Podcast, rehearsal week continues with two of this year’s big contenders stepping onto the stage – Nemo and Joost Klein.

Our team has all the details from their rehearsals as well as all the staging news from the songs competing in the second semi-final. We’ll take a deep dive into Nemo’s staging for “The Code”, and whether those fluffy boots can take all that jumping around, and ask whether Joost’s new EU bird is actually part of his staging for the live shows.

Steven Heap is your host as Wrap-Up comes to you on Wednesday, with rehearsals for the Eurovision Song Contest now in full swing. With 31 of this year’s entries now getting time to showcase their staging, there’s plenty that’s caught our eyes over the past couple of days.

There’s more beyond the Malmö Arena, too. On today’s show, we head into the town square to spend a few minutes with Portugal’s act Iolanda to discuss her song “Grito”. Not only that, we’ve got all the big stories coming from Eurovision, including the details on this year’s postcards and what Eurovision boss Martin Österdahl is saying about the future of the contest.

That’s all to come on this special Wednesday edition of Wrap-Up – bringing this year’s Eurovision Song Contest to you, wherever you are.

The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. There’s another show to look forward to this Friday, and we’ll have a new show every day on the week of the contest – that’s Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, we arrive in Malmö, Sweden – the world’s stage for the next two weeks.

Eurovision 2024 has officially begun, with rehearsals underway for all 37 acts – we look over some of the standout performances from the weekend, dive deeper into each country’s staging plans, and start to see who’s performances are shaping up well ahead of next week’s live shows.

We’ll also get more insight into this year’s Eurovision stage from the people who made it possible – our new podcast recruit Daniel Stridh spoke to stage designers Florian Wieder and Fredrik Stormby about their 360-degree design while standing straight in front of it.

And there’s the results of Eurojury 2024, too – so if you’re ready for Eurovision, wait no longer. The contest officially starts here on the Eurovoix Podcast.

The Eurovoix Podcast brings you the Eurovision Song Contest wherever you are, whenever you are. There’s two more shows to look forward to this Wednesday and Friday, and we’ll have a new show every day on the week of the contest – that’s Eurovision every day, everywhere.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, it’s our final instalment before we head to Eurovision 2024 – and it’s packed!

Franciska van Waarden hosts the show as we’re joined by some of the best names in the Eurovision community – GJ Kooijman from the Dutch Ding-a-Dong Podcast joins us to talk about Joost Klein’s chances at Eurovision, and ESC Gabe returns to explain why he loves Estonia’s song more than any other.

There’s also time for MJ and Liv from Phoenix ESC to join us to reflect on this year’s season, and something else to get excited about – we’ve got exclusive results from Eurojury 2024, revealed on this week’s show before you’ll see them anywhere else!

And, if that’s not all, make sure you stay right until the end – there’s a special announcement about our plans for the biggest song contest on Earth. Eurovision is almost here – and the Eurovoix Podcast is here for you.

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, we bring you all the best interviews from Eurovision in Concert in Amsterdam.

James Stephenson is your host for this week’s Wrap-Up as we send a team of three to the Netherlands to meet with some of the biggest contenders at Eurovision 2024.

Neil Farren, Sem Anne van Dijk and James Washak went out to Amsterdam to bring the world of Eurovision closer to you. We speak to the homegrown hero, Joost Klein, denim-loving Windows95Man, popstars Aiko, Tali and Silia Kapsis, and the new bookies’ favourite – Nemo.

And that’s not all – there’s more song previews including “We Will Rave” from Austria and “Zorra” from Spain with the rest of the Eurovoix team, we ask why Eurovision costs so much, and there’s an update from Eurojury as the first results start to come in.

The contest is getting closer – so get closer to it than ever before. Listen to the new episode of Wrap-Up today wherever you get your podcasts.

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, now predicts Switzerland will win Eurovision 2024 in Malmö, Sweden.

In a new, updated simulation based on current data, Nemo is now seen as the most likely winner of the contest with their song “The Code”. That means that, if this year’s Eurovision was held today, then Switzerland would have the highest probability of winning the competition.

After previously predicting Italy would triumph, Nemo’s rise in the betting odds has not gone unnoticed by ‘The Model’. Switzerland is predicted to score 480 points in the Grand Final, enough to win the jury vote, come second in the public vote, and beat out Italy and Ukraine to the Eurovision crown.

Eurovoix Launches ‘The Model’ to Predict Eurovision 2024

So, if ‘The Model’ was entirely correct, what does it say will happen at Eurovision 2024?

Semi-Final OneSemi-Final One, According to ‘The Model’In the first semi-final, there have been significant changes in ‘The Model’ and its prediction. At the top, Ukraine remains the big favourite to win this semi-final.

Although Ukraine is behind Croatia in the odds, the country has a proven track record of strong public vote results. Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil can also count on points from countries that often support Ukraine at Eurovision, such as neighbours Poland and Moldova. With 183 points, Ukraine is definitely expected to score high.

Baby Lasagna is projected to finish in second place here with 140 points. “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” is a huge hit in Croatia, but ‘The Model’ is less optimistic about its chances of points from other countries. Additionally, Croatia has fallen in the betting odds over the past two weeks as Switzerland has taken first place from them.

Third and fourth are Lithuania and Finland, with “Luktelk” and “No Rules” respectively. Both Silvester Belt and Windows95Man have been regulars at the pre-parties leading up to Eurovision 2024, which are often seen as a good indicator of how songs may perform at the contest. Both are expected to continue this momentum in Malmö.

Perhaps the country that may have most benefitted from the pre-parties so far is Ireland. Although ‘The Model’ projected Bambie Thug would qualify with “Doomsday Blue”, strong performances in London and Madrid have boosted Ireland’s prospects. They’re now predicted to finish in fifth here, sailing through to Saturday.

Slovenia are also expected to score well, with Raiven defying the current betting odds thanks to strong support on community rankings, and points from reliable friends Croatia and Serbia. They tie with Ireland on 81 points at the moment.

Behind them, Tali and Silia Kapsis are showing that girlbops are still reliable at Eurovision, too predicted to finish 7th and 8th with “Fighter” and “Liar”. Two other solo female acts are expected to round out the top 10, but are very different from each other – Poland’s poppy “The Tower” is ninth, while Portugal’s ballad “Grito” is tenth.

Image Source: RIK/ EBUThe non-qualifiers are the same as they were in ‘The Model”s most recent projection, with some slight changes. Iceland are in 11th at the moment, with “Scared of Heights” expected to pick up some support from Scandinavian countries like Finland and Sweden. 12th is Azerbaijan, despite sending a song with Azeri lyrics for the first time.

Teya Dora is still seen by ‘The Model’ to be one of the big surprises. “Ramonda”, Serbia’s song, has been drawn in the death slot in the first semi-final, and the combination of a tough running order and its slow pace are expected to hurt its qualification chances. If there were juries in this semi-final, Serbia would be projected to go through.

Image source: Electric FieldsRounding out Tuesday’s pack, ‘The Model’ predicts that Australia could finish as low as 14th place with “One Milkali (One Blood” from Electric Fields. Finally, Moldova bring up the rear, with Natalia Barbu projected to score a slim seven points with “In The Middle”.

Semi-Final TwoSemi-Final Two, According to ‘The Model’The biggest changes from ‘The Model’ come in the second semi-final. Unlike in the first, where the qualifiers remain unchanged, there is a different country making it to the Grand Final in this projection.

Before we get to them, though, ‘The Model’ is still predicting that The Netherlands will win this show. “Europapa” by Joost Klein continues to break streaming records in his homeland, and drawing the closing spot in the running order is statistically the best spot you can perform in. All that adds up to strong points potential for the Dutch entry.

Image source: AVROTROSThat means Nemo, although projected to win the Eurovision Song Contest outright, is expected to only come second place in their semi-final. Why “The Code” is predicted to do that comes down to a number of factors, including the running order and the countries voting in the semi-final.

Either way, they still score 168 points, which is enough to fly through the semi-final 10 points behind the Netherlands. Another reason for Switzerland perhaps underperforming here is the lack of juries – Europapa is expected to be a strong televote favourite, while ‘The Model’ ranks “The Code” more favourably with the juries than “Europapa”.

Chasing the front two are Belgium, Norway and Austria, who are all expected to break through the 100-point barrier with vastly different songs. Mustii is in third right now with “Before The Party’s Over” – the theatrical number is expected to make a big impression, projected to earn 135 points from the public.

Norway’s song “Ulveham” couldn’t be more different, with its folk and heavy metal influences, but they should do almost as well with 122 points. And, just behind on 110 points, ‘The Model’ thinks Kaleen has proved she is a strong contender with her song “We Will Rave”, despite some technical trouble during pre-party performances.

Image Source: Bubu Dujmic / ORFGreece follows behind, with Marina Satti projected in sixth place with “Zari”. “Zari” has been a divisive song in Marina’s homeland, and the potential for the song to perhaps alienate some audiences is reflected in this projection. Armenia is in seventh place, with Ladaniva’s folk song “Jako” expected to be a safe bet to reach Saturday’s final, and Israel is 8th.

The big change comes in 9th place – Georgia is now expected to qualify for the Grand Final according to ‘The Model’. Nutsa Buzaladze performed her song “Firefighter” for the first time at the London Eurovision Party, and the odds have been shortening on her ever since – expect Georgia’s stock to rise higher in the coming weeks.

The final qualifier is Estonia, with 5miinust and Puuluup’s unique blend of hip-hop and talharpa doing enough to reach the final. They make it through at the expense of Denmark, who ‘The Model’ now projects to miss out on the Eurovision final for the fourth consecutive year with “Sand”, which scores 32 points in this simulation.

Further back, San Marino is projected in 12th with “11:11” by Megara, and Albania’s poor running order position means that they come 13th here. Aiko is in 14th for Czechia with “Pedestal”, scoring 7 points, but that’s more than Latvia and Malta can manage in the bottom two places, with Dons and Sarah Bonnici projected to score 3 and 1 respectively.

Grand FinalThe Grand Final, according to ‘The Model’The Grand Final remains the hardest part of the show to project. That’s because very much is still unknown about the show, least of all the running order. With so much of a song’s chances depending on where it performs, this projection is taken with every song having the same spot – save for Sweden, who we know are opening the show.

Based on this, Switzerland is predicted to be the favourite to win the contest. “The Code” is seen as the most likely to win the vote from the national juries, scoring 202 points with them, and falling only four short of Ukraine in the public vote with 278 points there. That’s enough for 480 points, which would take top spot.

Image Source: Eurovision.tvAlthough Ukraine is projected to win the public vote, a seventh place finish in the jury means they slip to third place in the overall result. Instead, Italy are projected to be the runners up. Angelina Mango has been the winner of every ‘The Model’ simulation up to this point, but Nemo’s momentum in the odds sees “La Noia” go down one place.

Two countries that are expected to perform strongly with the juries are Belgium and Israel, with both countries getting top five finishes here. This shows the potential value of a song that can win the juries over, especially with many of this year’s entries competing for the public vote – definitely more like Käärijä than Loreen.

Despite their position in the odds, ‘The Model’ doesn’t rate the chances of Croatia and The Netherlands as highly. In fact, the system thinks their two songs may cancel each other out. In addition to competition from similar entries like Finland and Estonia, Croatia and The Netherlands struggle in the juries to come sixth and tenth overall respectively.

The Big 5 countries and hosts Sweden, who only compete in the final but are performing in the semi-finals this year for the first time, have wildly different projections.

Sweden is predicted to come in eighth at its home Eurovision – Marcus & Martinus drawing the opening slot isn’t ideal, but “Unforgettable” should still place well in Malmö. One place behind them is France – although “Mon Amour” by Slimane is in the top five of the jury vote, a 20th place finish with the public sees it fall to ninth.

The rest of the Big 5, though, are currently projected to bring up the rear. Spain, the United Kingdom and Germany are the current bottom three according to ‘The Model’, with “Zorra”, “Dizzy” and “Always on the Run” struggling to score points in this projection.

Image Source: RTVEHowever, there’s still a long way to go until May’s Grand Final, and there’s so much we don’t know. Staging details are still under wraps, songs may still change and shift before their final performances, and Eurovision fans know to expect the unexpected.

That means, while ‘The Model’ aims to make the most accurate forecast of Eurovision that it can, it can only produce a “nowcast” based on the information we have. Based on that, we can get a good impression of how the field shapes up, but it would be wrong to think that this projection will be the final result.

Instead, it is best to think of it as a guide to what to expect. Whether songs do better, or worse, than ‘The Model’ suggests is where the fun of following the numbers at the Eurovision Song Contest comes from.

For now, though, Swiss Eurovision fans will be hoping that ‘The Model’ can see the future, and that Nemo will win Switzerland’s first contest since Celine Dion back in 1988.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, we head to London to see Eurovision 2024 up close and personal.

London-based James Stephenson is your host as the team gets to see this year’s Eurovision songs live at the London Eurovision Party 2024. With pre-party season in full swing, hear which performances stood out and who looks like they’ll do well at Eurovision in May.

James also got to chat to some of this year’s biggest contenders. On this week’s show, Belgium’s Mustii opens up about his Shakespearean past, we get all things girlbop from Sarah Bonnici and Nutsa Buzaladze, and James chats about his two loves – Eurovision and football – with two twins: Marcus & Martinus.

Away from London, the rest of the Wrap-Up team are standing by all over Europe. We react to some of the best performances from London, preview more of the songs competing at Eurovision 2024 with special guest Valentine Villain from Eurovision Hub, and there’s more news from Malmö with the contest only a month away.

So, hello Europe – this is London calling. For all things Eurovision this week, listen to Wrap-Up, the weekly Eurovision news show from the Eurovoix Podcast.

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, we visit Madrid to chat to some of this year’s big Eurovision favourites.

Steven Heap is your host this week as we send Neil Farren to the Eurovision Spain pre-party in the Spanish capital, and he speaks to Baby Lasagna from Croatia, Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil from Ukraine, Bambie Thug from Ireland and even the UK’s Olly Alexander – to name a few!

Also, the team reacts to the semi-final running orders – with help from Phoenix ESC, Faith Martin from ESCXtra and YouTuber ESC Tom – preview more of this year’s competitors, and check in with The Model to see how it sees Eurovision 2024 shaping up.

We’ll be covering all the other news from the last week in Eurovision as well, including staging announcements, Luxembourg’s song revamp and so much more from the world of the world’s biggest song contest.

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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In 2023, the semi-finals of the Eurovision Song Contest removed the juries. Today, we’re using ‘The Model’ to put the juries back in.

The voting system at Eurovision is becoming an increasing topic of debate. After the results of the 2023 contest, where Sweden beat Finland to first place despite losing the public vote, there has been discussion about whether the current voting system is the right one.

Image Source: EBU / Sarah Louise BennettHowever, a radical change to that system occurred last year. Although the juries and the public both voted in the final, only the public was allowed to vote in the semi-finals for the first time since 2007. That means the qualifiers for the final are now 100% chosen by the public.

But how different would Eurovision 2024 be if that change hadn’t happened? To see how different it could be, we’ve tasked Eurovoix’s Eurovision prediction system, ‘The Model’, with predicting the semi-finals of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest – with juries.

‘The Model’ uses data like betting odds, community rankings and more to create the most accurate predictions possible. For more information on how ‘The Model’ works, read a quick explainer here:

Eurovoix Launches ‘The Model’ to Predict Eurovision 2024

With updated projections and an upgraded methodology, ‘The Model’ will now show us an alternative reality. If you want to know what ‘The Model’ thinks would happen in Semi-Final 1, then go have a look!

Here’s what would happen in the second semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 with a 50/50 voting system, and if The Model was entirely correct:

Televote

Semi-Final Two TelevoteLet’s start with the public vote – what ‘The Model’ thinks would happen in this semi-final if it was run normally. According to ‘The Model’, the Netherlands is predicted to win the public vote, with Joost Klein’s “Europapa” taking 168 points from across Europe and the Rest of the World.

Image Source: Oliver OettliFollowing Joost is Nemo, whose song “The Code” is just four points behind in second place in the televote. There’s a significant gap between the top two and a very strong chasing pack, which is headed up by Belgium. Mustii’s track “Before The Party’s Over” benefits from a strong running order position to score well with 136 points here.

Norway and Austria round out the top 5 with very different entries. In fourth, “Ulveham”‘s unique blend of medieval lyrics, Norwegian folk instruments and metal carries it to 124 points, while the pulsing and highly polished “We Will Rave” from Kaleen impressed in a different way to come in fifth according to ‘The Model’.

Source: Kaleen MusicArmenia qualifies in sixth, with Ladaniva’s “Jako” gaining strong support from friendly countries like France and Georgia. Israel gets enough votes to make it into seventh place with their ballad, and Greece’s Marina Satti follows closely behind in eighth with “Zari”.

The final qualifiers, at least according to ‘The Model’, will be Estonia and Denmark. Estonia’s combination of hip-hop and talharpa is enough to see them through in ninth with 60 points, while Saba would drive Denmark into their first Eurovision final of the decade with “Sand”.

Image Source: Wikimedia Commons / Prada421Nutsa Buzaladze heads up the non-qualifiers in 11th with “Firefighter”, and Spanish band Megara score 30 points in 12th, seven of which come from their homeland. The opening two songs of the semi-final are both towards the back, with Malta and Albania scoring 18 and 17 points respectively.

Finally, ‘The Model’ predicts an uphill battle for both Czechia and Latvia to reach the final. Aiko’s punk-rock song “Pedestal” falls to just five points in this simulation, while Dons is expected to drift well away from the final by scoring just two points with his ballad “Hollow”.

Image Source: LTV / Lauris VīksneBut that’s just with the public vote. What would happen if this semi-final had some juries?

Jury Vote

Semi-Final Two Jury VoteMuch like in the first semi-final, the jury vote is expected to be more unpredictable. With Joost Klein’s rap style less likely to be loved by jurors, it’s no surprise that they slip from the top spot. Switzerland is able to pick up the most points, then, earning 136 points for their genre-breaking “The Code”.

Image Source: VLAD VDKBelgium finishes as the runner-up with the juries, with Mustii just six points off the lead with his dramatic entry. Israel climb from seventh to third with the jury vote, but Dutch fans will be pleasantly surprised to see Joost holding up in fourth place with 119 points from the juries.

Greece is another country to benefit from the jury vote, with “Zari” rolling up from eighth into fifth place, tied with Norway but ahead on countback. Norway’s song fares slightly less well with the juries than the public vote, reflecting the results of Melodi Grand Prix, where KEiiNO would have won the contest under a 50/50 voting system.

Image Source: Espen Solli / NRKAustria’s rave impresses the juries as well as the public, scoring 104 points and qualifying comfortably with them in seventh place according to ‘The Model’. The rest of the qualifiers in fact, are all the same as in the televote: Armenia, Estonia and Denmark round out the top 10 in the jury vote as well.

That means the non-qualifiers are exactly the same, although the order is different. Although they are in last with the public, ‘The Model’ thinks Latvia will climb to 11th with the juries and earn 94% of their overall points from them. However, that won’t be enough to take Latvia back to the final for the first time since 2016.

Image Source: TVMMalta and Georgia are next, scoring 23 and 22 points respectively with their girlbops “Loop” and “Firefighter”. Czechia are not far behind, but ‘The Model’ doesn’t think that either the juries or the public will give Pedestal enough support to make it to the final. San Marino and Albania take the final two spots in the order.

Final Results

The Full ResultsSo, what would the final results be if the semi-finals still had a 50/50 voting system? Not much would actually be very different. With the top 10 the same in both votes, the same songs would make the final in this simulation as they would in the normal semi-final.

The order would slightly change, though – Switzerland’s better support from the juries would see them win the second semi-final over the Netherlands. Switzerland would score 300 combined points, which is coincidentally the same as Ukraine would score in our projection of the first semi-final.

Image Source: ERTBelgium, Norway and Austria are all comfortably through, with these songs all scoring over 100 points from the juries and the public. Israel and Greece would both pass Armenia with the help of the juries, while Estonia and Denmark would stay ninth and tenth.

Towards the bottom, Czechia would come last overall despite not finishing in last in either the jury or public vote. Georgia would also finish in 11th as the best of the non-qualifiers, but is projected to be 41 points behind Denmark by ‘The Model’ in this simulation. At the moment, then, semi-final 2 looks easier to call than semi-final 1.

Image Source: ČTSo, what have we learned? In this case, while juries can often have different opinions to the public vote, there’s often more alignment than people think. Largely, this means that the best songs are always able to count on support from both jury and televote, and that is always the best path to winning the contest.

What About Semi-Final 1?

If you want to know what ‘The Model’ would project to happen in semi-final 1 with a 50/50 voting system, take a look!

https://eurovoix.com/2024/03/30/the-model-what-if-semi-final-1-still-had-juries/

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In 2023, the semi-finals of the Eurovision Song Contest removed the juries. Today, we’re using ‘The Model’ to put the juries back in.

Image Source: EBU / Sarah Louise BennettHowever, a radical change to that system occurred last year. Although the juries and the public both voted in the final, only the public was allowed to vote in the semi-finals for the first time since 2008. That means the qualifiers for the final are now 100% chosen by the public.

Eurovoix Launches ‘The Model’ to Predict Eurovision 2024

With updated projections and an upgraded methodology, ‘The Model’ will now show us an alternative reality. Here’s what would happen in the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 with a 50/50 voting system, and if The Model was entirely correct:

Televote

Semi-Final One TelevoteLet’s start with what isn’t changing – the public vote. In the public vote, Ukraine is still projected to win the semi-final, scoring 176 points from the public votes of 18 countries and the Rest of the World. “Teresa & Maria” is one of the big pre-contest favourites, and looks like it will continue Ukraine’s impressive record at Eurovision.

Image Source: alyona alyona & Jerry HeilBehind that is Baby Lasagna for Croatia with “Rim Tim Tagi Dim”, scoring 139 points from the public vote. Following closely, though, are Lithuania and Finland, with Silvester Belt and Windows95Man both able to earn 135 points for their countries in ‘The Model”s simulation and booking places in the final with ease.

From fifth place down, the gaps become much tighter. Cyprus is fifth with ‘The Model’, with Silia Kapsis scoring 80 points, including a 12 from her native Australia. You could throw a blanket over Poland, Slovenia and Luxembourg, with just two points separating the three countries. However, Luna, Raiven and Tali all qualify here.

Image Source: CyBCIn a televote-only semi-final, the final two places would be occupied by Ireland and Portugal if ‘The Model’ was accurate. Bambie Thug’s edgier, metal-tinged “Doomsday Blue” is expected to impress Europe enough to take Ireland back to the final, while Iolanda would snatch the final spot for Portugal with the dramatic ballad “Grito”.

The non-qualifiers would be led by Australia, with Electric Fields missing out on the top 10 by 10 points. Iceland is tied with Australia on 36 points, with Moldova and Azerbaijan joining them in the lower order. Finally, Teya Dora is being projected to come last in the public vote in the first semi-final with the tender “Ramonda”.

Image Source: Electric FieldsBut that’s just with the public vote. What would happen if this semi-final had some juries?

Jury Vote

Semi-Final One Jury VoteIn the first semi-final, the juries would be projected by ‘The Model’ to have a radically different result. For a start, Portugal jump from 10th place in the televote to topping the pile with the juries, with “Grito” gaining 138 points from them. Second is Ukraine, hinting that Ukraine can expect strong support from the juries as well as the public.

Image Source: RTPSlovenia is another country that would benefit from international juries. “Veronika”, Raiven’s song, is projected to be a jury darling, scoring 115 points to climb into third place in this semi-final. And Serbia perhaps would benefit most of all, with “Ramonda” rising from 15th to fourth and crossing the 100-point mark, too.

Lithuania and Croatia, on the other hand, would be less liked by the juries. The high energy “Luktelk” and “Rim Tim Tagi Dim”‘s rock would both still qualify with the juries, but with only 92 and 80 points respectively in fifth and sixth.

Image Source: Renato Branđolica / HRTIn seventh, Luxembourg show consistency in ‘The Model’, with 70 jury points to go with their 68 televote points. Behind them, though, Australia have always done well with the Eurovision juries, and a projected 62-point jury haul would give them a real chance of reaching the final.

Rounding out the top 10 would be opening song Cyprus, with the more classic Europop of “Liar” still giving them a route to success, and Ireland. Ireland finishing 10th with both the juries and the televote seems to show that Bambie Thug isn’t going to be perceived as a novelty act, or something that juries “won’t get”.

Image Source: Nelli Kenttä / YleThe song that would be most hurt by the inclusion of a jury vote is “No Rules!”, by Windows95Man. In this projection from ‘The Model’, the juries would be happy to see Finland miss out on the final, finishing in eleventh here with just 53 points. Windows95Man finished last with the juries in UMK, so an all-televote semi-final benefits him.

Azerbaijan would do better with the juries, but only enough to finish in 12th, while Poland would struggle as “The Tower” can only climb to 40 points with ‘The Model’. Finally, two songs are projected to find it hard to score any points at all with the jury. “Scared of Heights” would score 11 points for Iceland, and “In The Middle” only five for Moldova.

Final Results

The Full ResultsSo what does all of that mean then? In the final results, it means that one qualifier would change between a semi-final with full public voting, and one with a 50/50 voting system. Ireland, despite qualifying with both the juries and the public vote, would miss out in heartbreaking fashion – one point short of Poland in 11th place.

Image Source: RTÉReplacing them in the final would be Serbia – despite coming last in the public vote! ‘The Model’ thinks that “Ramonda” could be so successful with the juries that it would make it to the final under a 50/50 voting system – despite Serbia having to perform in the ‘death slot’ of song number 2.

Across the board, there are also some less significant, but still notable changes to the results. Lithuania would climb into second place ahead of Croatia, Portugal’s jury win would see them make the top 5, and Poland’s strength in the televote would only see them qualify for the final by their fingernails.

Image Source: Dorota Szulc / TVPOverall, though, the main takeaway is that including the juries again would reward quieter songs at the contest. Much like in the final, where Estonia’s “Bridges” could score a top-10 finish, the 50/50 system encourages a greater diversity of styles, with the jury giving a boost to artists who showcase greater technical quality in their songs.

What About Semi-Final 2?

If you want to know what ‘The Model’ would project to happen in semi-final 2 with a 50/50 voting system, then this will come out tomorrow!

Image Source: RTS

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After the announcement of the running orders, a new projection from ‘The Model’ offers good news for Ukraine and The Netherlands.

Based on current data, ‘The Model’ is projecting that the first semi-final will be won by “Teresa & Maria” from Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil, while Joost Klein is now seen as the favourite to come first in the second semi-final with “Europapa”.

Eurovoix Launches ‘The Model’ to Predict Eurovision 2024

These new projections have also taken into account the running order for each semi-final, which were announced yesterday. As a result, the projections ‘The Model’ makes today are extremely different from its first forecast, and it will continue to change as the contest comes closer.

Here’s a breakdown of what would happen at Eurovision 2024 if ‘The Model’ was entirely correct.

Semi-Final OneSemi-Final One, According to ‘The Model’Ukraine is expected to win the first semi-final quite comfortably. ‘The Model’ is currently assigning Ukraine 178 points – just 18 short of the maximum total of 196 a song can reach in an 15-song semi.

“Teresa & Maria” is 44 points clear of its main rival on Tuesday, which is Croatia. Despite being the current favourite in the odds, Baby Lasagna and his song “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” is expected to come second here.

Image Source: Renato Branđolica/HRTNot far behind them are Finland with “No Rules!” and Lithuania with “Luktelk”. Both songs are seen as being more tailored to the televote than most: these two songs are second and third in the list of the highest energy Eurovision songs since 2016, with only “Dark Side” by Blind Channel scoring higher on the Spotify Web API.

Following them is Portugal and Slovenia, both with slightly slower songs. These countries have benefitted from the running order according to ‘The Model’, with Slovenia taking the 9 spot that Sweden went on to win the contest from last year. Meanwhile, Portugal are performing in the penultimate 14th slot, an ideal place to stand out.

Image Source: RTPCompleting the qualifiers are Luxembourg (thanks to securing the all-important closing number), Poland (still qualifying despite a tough spot between Ukraine and Croatia), Cyprus (which benefits from taking the opening slot in the show) and Ireland is still projected to qualify for its first Eurovision final since 2018.

Iceland heads up the non-qualifiers in 11th, while Serbia, Australia, Azerbaijan and Moldova are the other countries ‘The Model’ thinks will miss the cut. Serbia in particular has been most hurt by the running order, as it will perform in the infamous ‘death slot’ – song 2.

Image Source: RTSWhile there has been some speculation that the inclusion of the Big 5 countries and hosts Sweden in the semi-finals may have an affect, we currently expect it to be negligible. As those songs are not up for the vote, we don’t believe that audiences will be less likely to vote for a song based on its proximity to a non-competing contender.

Full Results of Semi-Final One – ‘The Model’Semi-Final TwoSemi-Final Two, According to ‘The Model’The biggest changes have happened in ‘The Model’ for its projection of the second semi-final. While it was predicted to come only 6th a few days ago, a combination of a surge with the bookmakers and securing the closing spot in the show has sent “Europapa” to the head of the family.

Joost Klein’s hardstyle track is now predicted to top the leaderboard on Thursday night, scoring 164 points with the 19 voting countries. With its blend of rap and high-energy production, Joost’s song is seen by The Model as the most televote-friendly entry among the class of 2024 – but also the least jury-friendly song of them all.

Image Source: AVROTROSClosely following behind by just 5 points is Switzerland. Nemo and their song “The Code” has been high in the odds since its release, and despite not winning should sail through to the semi-final.

After Switzerland, two countries are also expected to score very well during the show. Belgium’s track “When The Party’s Over” by Mustii is seen as more favourable for the juries, but its early popularity in the community rankings and odds should see it pick up plenty of televote support, too.

Image Source: RTBF“Ulveham”, by the Norwegian band Gåte, is also expected to score high despite its medieval influences. A strong score of 130 points in this version of ‘The Model’ shows that even songs in less popular European languages and genres can still find a successful spot within the Eurovision space.

“We Will Rave” is predicted to send Austria dancing into fifth place, while Israel’s ballad “Hurricane” is further back in sixth. A point behind, Armenia benefit from a good running order position and sets of ‘douze points’ from France, Georgia and Greece to come in seventh and reach the final for the third straight year.

Image Source: Cosmo Jazz FestivalRounding out the qualifiers from Thursday’s show are Greece (slightly lower than odds are expecting in eighth place), Denmark (benefitting from a solid running order position and Scandinavian support) in ninth, and ‘The Model’ thinks Estonia’s sensationally titled “(Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi” will take the final spot.

San Marino surprisingly head up the non-qualifiers in 11th, benefitting from 7 of their points coming from Spain, the homeland of their act Megara. Georgia is also a surprise in 12th, but ‘The Model’ shows signs of hope for Nutsa and “Firefighter” – just a 0.5% upward shift in the odds right now would see them gain the points they need.

Image Source: GPBBringing up the rear are Thursday’s opening song “Loop” from Malta, the following track (and Thursday ‘death slot’ holder) from Albania, and there’s a tie for last place between two very different kinds of songs – punk rock from Aiko and Czechia and a gritty ballad from Dons and Latvia.

Full Results of Semi-Final Two – ‘The Model’How Did ‘The Model’ Project These Results?

‘The Model’ does more than simply take data and predict the probability of a result. The system uses past Eurovision results, political bias, and even the internal musical statistics of songs to predict every point from every country at the contest.

For these new projections, ‘The Model’ has also started using two new variables to adjust for the running order.

Running Order Weighting: Using historical results from semi-finals at Eurovision, ‘The Model’ calculates the probability of each song scoring points based on its running order position. For the best slots, such as the closing song, this weighting increases its point-scoring chances by around 38%. In the worst spot – no surprise, song number 2 – a song’s chances of points can decrease by half.
Running Order Relativity: Remember how Spain scored only 5 points at last year’s Eurovision? That was down to Sweden’s winning entry performing right after it. Running Order Relative is able to calculate the effect of other songs around it in the running order against the song in question. That way, the chances of each song scoring points increases or decreases again based on its neighbours.

The closing spot is what everyone wants – Image Source: EBU / Chloe HashemiThese variables are among a range of different systems designed to account for all the unique elements of a Eurovision Song Contest. ‘The Model’ can also predict the televote/jury bias of any given song based on musical data, and even accounts for tactical voting: like when Finland surprisingly awarded neighbours Sweden no points last year.

And, because ‘The Model’ uses real-time data for its projections, the projections change as the data does. That means if a country starts to climb the odds table or score higher in the community rankings, the system knows. That way, it provides the most accurate calculations possible based on the best possible information.

What About The Final?While most things about the final are still unknown, ‘The Model’ is also able to make a projection of how the final would play out based on new data.

Following on from its first projection on March 17, ‘The Model’ is still projecting Angelina Mango to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 for Italy with her song “La noia”.

Image Source: Ansa / Ettore FerrariItaly’s song is now projected to score 472 points in the final, thanks to an increase in betting around the song in recent days. Rounding out the top 3 are still Ukraine and Switzerland, scoring 453 and 405 points overall, respectively.

Sweden are still forecast to win the jury vote, with “Unforgettable” by Marcus & Martinus scoring 245 points in the current simulation, while “Teresa & Maria” is expected to take the televote with 306 points.

Image Source: Stina Stjernkvist/SVTHere’s the full list of points for each country in the final:

Italy (259 televote points + 213 jury points) = 472 points
Ukraine (306 + 147) = 453 points
Switzerland (227 + 178) = 405 points
Sweden (106 + 245) = 351 points
Belgium (110 + 184) = 294 points
Israel (60 + 183) = 243 points
Norway (133 + 91) = 224 points
Croatia (161 + 48) = 209 points
Lithuania (112 + 88) = 200 points
Austria (68 + 118) = 186 points
France (41 + 131) = 172 points
Netherlands (95 + 64) = 159 points
Greece (75 + 76) = 151 points
Finland (103 + 39) = 142 points
Cyprus (43 + 52) = 95 points
Spain (24 + 52) = 76 points
Armenia (33 + 39) = 72 points
Estonia (37 + 34) = 71 points
United Kingdom (27 + 41) = 68 points
Slovenia (18 + 50) = 68 points
Luxembourg (30 + 30) = 60 points
Ireland (49 + 7) = 56 points
Poland (44 + 9) = 53 points
Denmark (28 + 14) = 42 points
Portugal (16 + 9) = 25 points
Germany (6 + 1) = 7 points

Of course, this projection doesn’t mean this will happen exactly as it is come the contest in May. ‘The Model’ is best seen as a ‘nowcast’ – a projection of what would happen if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, based on the data we have available to us.

That’s why on a regular basis from now until the contest, The Model will update. The predicted winner may change, the qualifiers may change, and so much more – so if you’re keen to keep up with what The Model predicts, follow it on the Eurovoix website!

Image Source: Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, the clock continues to tick down to the contest – and we’re starting to get very excited.

Meg Davies is your host for this week’s Wrap-Up as we take a closer look at Malmö’s preparations for the contest, see if Czechia’s new revamp puts Aiko on a pedestal for success, and we start to process just how much ABBA there could be at Eurovision this year.

We also continue our previews of the class of 2024, with Swedish podcaster Sandra from Sa du Schlager?! talking about her country’s ‘Unforgettable’ song, and James chats to the other side of the world as Dale from Aussievision talks all things Oz.

There’s also plenty more of the news from the world of the world’s biggest song contest. We’ll try and explain what the national juries are made of, get an update from Eurojury 2024, and there’s one artist looking to start an easter egg hunt – stay tuned to find out who!

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, we start looking ahead to the Eurovision Song Contest in 50 days time.

With all 37 songs now out, host James Stephenson and the team start to analyse the runners and riders, and there’s help from Conor & Lou at Éirevision as we assess Bambie Thug’s chances for Ireland.

We’ll also discuss the rule changes to the contest announced on Monday – and what the Big 5 performing in the semi finals could mean for their fortunes – and later on we introduce The Model: the Eurovision prediction that has everyone talking!

There’s even time to talk ferrets. Yes, ferrets. Ferrets are just as important for organising the contest as the songs, apparently. Who knew?

For all the news from the world of the world’s biggest song contest, then this is the place you’ll find it. We’ll also react to Iceland confirming its Eurovision participation, Malmö’s contest preparation, and the final three songs from Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

So, while we know all 37 songs that will take part in this year’s contest, the truth is nobody knows what’s going to happen!

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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Today, Eurovoix is proud to reveal ‘The Model’ – a data-driven system that can predict the results of the Eurovision Song Contest.

The Model uses data including betting odds, community rankings and voting history to attempt to provide the most accurate forecast of Eurovision at any time.

The Model will make its first prediction today, Saturday 16 March, and will make further projections in the run up to Eurovision 2024, which is being held in Malmö, Sweden.

How Does ‘The Model’ Work?The Model takes existing data around the contest and transforms it into a simulation of the voting. What this means is that it can predict every point of both jury and public voting, creating a realistic simulation of Eurovision.

Drawing on statistics such as the current odds for the contest, the My Eurovision Scoreboard ranking app and even internal musical statistics like danceability, energy and happiness, The Model tries to identify the results of the contest before they happen.

Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi finals and final of the contest. This prediction is not a forecast, as such, but a ‘nowcast’ – a calculation of what would happen if Eurovision 2024 was held right now.

As a result, The Model’s projections will change over time as the data it consumes changes. Different songs will shift up and down the order depending on their popularity, and The Model will also account for future announcements like running order, song revamps and even tactical voting.

How Can I Follow ‘The Model’?From today until the contest on May 11, The Model will make a series of projections of what the Eurovision results would be if the contest was held that day.

You can read the results on the Eurovoix website, accompanied by a breakdown of the data and what it reveals about this year’s songs and Eurovision voting habits.

We’ll also compare what The Model says could happen at Eurovision against historical contests, identifying new trends and patterns in the contest that you might not have seen before.

So, if you love Eurovision, love making predictions or just love numbers, The Model will visualise Eurovision in a completely new way.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, we go to the biggest national final of them all.

James Stephenson and Meg Davies are your hosts as James pays a visit to Stockholm, Sweden to cover the iconic Melodifestivalen final, and speak to some of our Eurovision 2024 artists at Melfest WKND.

James reacts to the results of the live final on Saturday with Medina, Dotter and Cazzi Opeia, and there’s interviews with Jacqline, LIAMOO, Annika Wickihalder, Jay Smith and Smash Into Pieces, too!

Stockholm wasn’t the only place for Eurovision news, though – this week the team looks at Portugal’s new entry for this year’s contest, the artist announcements from Azerbaijan and Armenia, and there’s time for the team to reminisce on the craziest costumes in contest history.

Recorded in Stockholm, edited on a plane and released around the world for you – if you love Eurovision, then this is the show for you.

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, the internally selected songs are taking over.

James Stephenson and Franciska van Waarden are your hosts as the team reacts to five new Eurovision entries from the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Cyprus – and the United Kingdom, of course.

We’ll also bring you all the news from last weekend’s national finals, including Serbia’s new Eurovision contender and a surprise result in Iceland.

Then, the team looks ahead to the contest, with speculation about some of the staging announcements some countries have made already. And, at the end of the show, we announce the return date of Euro Jury, and start to ask the big question – who might actually win the contest?

If you want all the latest from Eurovision last week, then start your week with Wrap-Up.

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, Wrap-Up visits San Marino as they hold their national final, and we speak to the winners – Megara.

James Stephenson and Steven Heap are your hosts as we send our Italian reporter Davide down the road to San Marino to give us the full details on this year’s national final.

We’ll also bring you all the results from the weekend in Croatia, Sweden, Portugal and Iceland, and we try to explain the full situation around the reports that Israel could withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest if their song is banned.

It’s not just national finals either. We’ll react to Belgium’s new song, revamp news from around Europe and speak to Daniel Stridh, one of the organisers of Melfest WKND, about what its like making a huge celebration of Eurovision come to life.

If you want all the latest from Eurovision last week, then start your week with Wrap-Up.

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

Image Source: San Marino RTV

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This week on the Eurovoix Podcast, Wrap-Up tells the story of the busiest Saturday of the year so far.

James Stephenson and Franciska van Waarden are your hosts as we reflect on five national finals, three Superfinals and a big hosting announcement in the world of Junior Eurovision.

We’ll have all the latest from Denmark, Estonia and Lithuania’s shows, and we’ll find out what happened when our own Sem Anne van Dijk went to Berlin for the final of Das Deutsche Finale and spoke to its winner, ISAAK.

We’re also joined by Bente van Leijden from ESC Xtra to talk about the weekend’s results, all the latest song release dates and react to Poland’s new entry – as long as you’re reading this after its been announced!

The Eurovoix Podcast is Eurovision’s new voice for 2024. Listen today to get all the news from the contest in context and share your love of Eurovision with us.

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Ukraine’s Eurovision commentator, Timur Miroshnychenko, says he hopes that Ukraine will be able to host Eurovision as soon as next year.

Speaking exclusively to the Eurovoix Podcast, Timur said that Ukraine’s Eurovision 2024 entry, “Teresa & Maria” by alyona alyona & Jerry Heil “could be one of the best songs this year”.

In a wide-ranging interview, Timur also discussed his career in Eurovision and the unique challenges of broadcasting in Ukraine since the war with Russia began in 2022.

When asked what his biggest hope was for the future, Timur said that his dream was to host Eurovision in Ukraine once again:

In the nearest years, maybe next year, we’ll have a chance to host Eurovision in Ukraine. I want all the people from different countries of Europe and the world to have a chance to come to Ukraine and to hear all the thankful words from Ukrainians in person.

Timur believes that Ukraine’s new Eurovision entry, “Teresa & Maria”, can represent the country’s culture and values on the global stage. He spoke about the song symbolising women’s experiences in Ukraine, saying that it reflected that “a lot of different things are now on women’s shoulders”.

The presenter was also the host of Ukraine’s national final for Eurovision, Vidbir 2024, last weekend. During the show, technical difficulties affected the voting sequence, meaning the votes could not be counted until a day later. Timur said that it was initially unclear what was going on:

At that moment, we didn’t have any information…was that an attack, or a huge amount of people wanting to vote? It was an improvised live talk show with all the contestants for one hour…and when we realised there was no chance for this app [Diia] to reboot we decided to prolong the vote for one day.

Timur also said that, if the voting problems hadn’t happened, Ukraine would have received around three million unique votes for the contest. Despite the issues, more than one million unique votes were counted, including over 700,000 for the winning song.

During the interview, Timur also touched on how his life and career has changed since Ukraine was invaded by Russia two years ago. Due to the current conditions in the country, Timur and his colleagues at Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne do a lot of their work underground and in bomb shelters, such as the voting sequence for Vidbir 2024.

Reflecting on Ukraine’s win in 2022, when Kalush Orchestra won the contest in Turin, Italy with the song “Stefania”, Timur said it would be the most important broadcast of his career:

Of course, we understood there are millions of people around the world who are supporting us…but exactly that night all of us Ukrainians understood we are not alone.

To hear more of Timur’s exclusive interview with the Eurovoix Podcast, you can listen to this week’s episode of Wrap-Up on all major podcast platforms.

Image Source: Wouter van Vliet / EuroVisionary

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It’s that time of the year again when the Eurovoix team predict who we think is going to win the 66th Eurovision Song Contest in Turin, Italy. Top Ten Rankings Each member of the team has ranked the ten countries…

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If you haven’t already made your mind up as to which of tonight’s artists should qualify, or if you’re ready to change your mind after watching the artists perform live, be sure to download the Eurovoix scorecard for tonight’s show.…

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The EBU has published a formal statement in relation to the participation of Belarus in the Eurovision Song Contest 2021. The statement published on social media is as follows: Statement from the EBU regarding Belarus’ Eurovision Song Contest 2021 entry.…

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“No lyrics, speeches, gestures of a political, commercial or similar nature shall be permitted during the Eurovision Song Contest. No swearing or other unacceptable language shall be allowed in the lyrics or in the performances of the songs”. Rules of…

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Tonight, the Grand Final of the 63rd Eurovision Song Contest takes place in Lisbon, Portugal. Twenty-six countries will compete for victory tonight. If you haven’t already made your mind up as to which of tonight’s finalists should win, or if…

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Eurovoix can exclusively reveal details about the national juries who will make up 50% of the total vote in the Junior Eurovision Song Contest. In an email to the site, Gert Kark, Eurovision TV Project Manager , explained how each national jury will…

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As tradition goes it is time to reveal who the team at Eurovoix.com think will be qualifying tonight from the Second Semi-Final. With eighteen songs competing in the Second Semi-Final tonight, only ten can make it through to the final on Saturday…

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Last night, the eighteen countries competing in the first semi final took to the stage for the live show during which the public cast their votes and the qualifiers were decided. In this episode of XtraVoix, we give our take on the ten…

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As tradition goes it is time to reveal who the team at Eurovoix.com think will be qualifying tonight from the first Semi-Final. With eighteen songs competing in the first Semi-Final tonight, only ten can make it through to the final…

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Semi Final day has finally arrived! Last night, the eighteen countries competing in the first semi final took to the stage for the first jury rehearsal of the week – in which 50% of the vote is cast.

In this episode of XtraVoix, we discuss the jury show as well as who we think is set to pass and fall in tonight’s live show.

Featuring in today’s extended edition of XtraVoix are:

Nathan Waddell (escxtra.com)

Anthony Granger (eurovoix.com)

Megan Davies (eurovoix.com)

Nick van Lith (escxtra.com)

As the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest is well underway, XtraVoix will continue with daily podcasts to cover events in Kyiv. Please subscribe to us via iTunes in order to never miss an episode!

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Every single country has now completed their rehearsals at the International Exhibition Centre in Kyiv, Ukraine. All that remains now are the dress rehearsals before each of the three live television shows this week.

Today we saw the remaining second rehearsals from the prequalified finalists. These are: Ukraine, Italy, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom and France.

XtraVoix is back with another instalment, as we recap the day’s events and share our thoughts on the prequalified finalists this year… prepare yourselves for some minor group therapy up ahead in today’s show!

Featuring in today’s extended edition of XtraVoix are:

Nathan Waddell (escxtra.com)

Anthony Granger (eurovoix.com)

Megan Davies (eurovoix.com)

Danny Ni (escxtra.com)

Nick van Lith (escxtra.com)

As the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest gets closer, XtraVoix will continue with daily podcasts to cover events in Kyiv. Please subscribe to us via iTunes in order to never miss an episode!

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The end is in sight – rehearsals at the International Exhibition Centre are almost complete, with another 13 countries having a second rehearsal from which we can watch 30 seconds direct from the TV feed.

Today we saw the remaining second rehearsals from semifinal 2. The countries which rehearsed today were: the Netherlands, Hungary, Denmark, Ireland, San Marino, Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Belarus, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia and Israel.

XtraVoix is back with another instalment, as we recap the day’s events and share our thoughts.

Featuring in today’s extended edition of XtraVoix are:

Nathan Waddell (escxtra.com)

Anthony Granger (eurovoix.com)

Megan Davies (eurovoix.com)

Nick van Lith (escxtra.com)

As the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest gets closer, XtraVoix will continue with daily podcasts to cover events in Kyiv. Please subscribe to us via iTunes in order to never miss an episode!

https://www.escxtra.com/wp-content/uploads/XtraVoix-ep8.mp3

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Eurovoix Archives - Eurovoix: Recent Episodes

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