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YangFX
加入我们，深入探讨周一的地震性事件，重点关注尼格尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）意外的政治回归。自竞选开始以来，法拉奇一直面临着越来越大的压力，要求他参与选举竞争。现在，随着他戏剧性的回归到英国政治的前沿，我们探讨这对保守党和改革党的影响。从法拉奇的动机到对国家选举动态的潜在影响，我们剖析这一重大声明的后果。请收听我们对这个前所未有的政治戏剧的曲折和转变进行解读。
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As the UK general election campaign hits the two-week mark, we take a deep dive into the latest polling, policy announcements, and campaign tactics from the major parties. Have the numbers shifted since the election was called? We analyze the polling data and what it could mean for potential outcomes.We also break down the key policy pitches from Labour and the Conservatives so far, including Labour's economic vision and the Tories' appeals to their base. How are the smaller parties like the Lib Dems and Reform UK faring?Plus, we look at the campaign trail theatrics, from Ed Davey's physical stunts to Rishi Sunak's base-shoring moves. With several TV debates on the horizon, where do the party leaders stand heading into these crucial events?Join us as we unpack all the twists and turns from the first half of this consequential campaign that could reshape British politics. Featuring expert analysis and insights from the campaign trail.
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Wave of Conservative MP ResignationsTo be fair, we knew this would be an issue for the Conservatives even before the election was announced. Prior to the election announcement, 66 Conservative MPs had already declared that they would stand down at the next election. Considering that the Conservatives held 344 seats before the election, this means roughly 20% of Conservative MPs are resigning at this election.Since the election was called, we have seen even more MPs announce their resignations. As of 9:00 AM on May 29th, the number has risen to 77. This group of 77 includes some very high-profile figures such as Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee; Chris Grayling, former Transport Secretary; George Eustice, former Environment Secretary; Michael Gove, Levelling Up Secretary and former Education Secretary; Matt Hancock, former Health Secretary; Sajid Javid, former Chancellor; and even Theresa May, former Prime Minister. In fact, of the 77 stepping down, 22 are either current or former Secretaries of State.Comparison of Resignation Numbers in ElectionsIndeed, the number of MPs resigning in this election is high. In 2019, only 32 Conservative MPs resigned, and in 2017, this number was just 12. However, this is not the highest number of resignations seen by an incumbent party during an election. Even back in 2010, 100 Labour MPs stepped down, although it's worth noting that MPs were embroiled in the expenses scandal at that time.The Conservatives' Challenge in Selecting CandidatesWith the election day approaching, the Conservatives now need to find candidates to replace these outgoing MPs. This is no small task. According to The Spectator, Labour is far ahead of the Conservatives in finalising their candidates. The deadline for this is Friday, June 7th, and as of Monday, the Conservatives still had 160 vacancies to fill.While this sounds like a daunting task, there are some signs that they might be able to meet this target. The Spectator points out that many of the remaining constituencies are unwinnable, with many of them located in Labour strongholds in inner London. As a result, few candidates typically apply for these seats. These seats should be relatively easy for the party to find candidates for and should not take them too long.However, the more challenging task lies in a handful of more attractive seats, those that appear more winnable, which have become available following the recent resignations of Tory MPs. Examples of such seats include Jo Churchill’s Bury St Edmunds seat, Andrea Leadsom’s South Northamptonshire seat, and Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath seat. These constituencies have majorities of 24,999 votes, 27,761 votes, and 18,349 votes, respectively. The Conservatives will want to select their candidates much more carefully here as whoever they select stands a much greater chance of winning.ConclusionAll in all, this is going to be a tricky task for the Conservatives, and whether they succeed is anyone’s guess at this point.--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/yangfx/support
让我们首先解释为什么每个人都认为选举会在秋季举行。简而言之，传统的观点是，国家卫生服务（NHS）、经济和英国的移民危机（至少在保守党眼中）在秋季前都会有所改善，从而让苏纳克可以以“所有的努力都得到了回报”为竞选口号。例如，预计到今年年底，NHS的候诊名单将降至600万以下，到明年年底将降至10年来的最低水平，这要归功于新冠疫情压力减缓、NHS额外容量增加以及初级医生罢工的结束。在过去几周里，我们了解到英国经济已经恢复增长，通胀率已经接近英格兰银行的2%目标，如果这种趋势继续下去，到秋季利率可能会下降，实际工资可能会上升。净移民人数预计也会在今年晚些时候开始下降，因为对学生和技术工人的签证制度更加严格，但这只有在秋季发布数据时才会显现出来。如果卢旺达计划的威慑效果存在，也只有到今年年底才会变得明显。除此之外，一些保守党人希望秋季选举能将奈杰尔·法拉奇排除在外，因为他会忙于在美国为特朗普助选。那么，为什么苏纳克选择在夏季举行选举，而他在民调中落后约20个百分点呢？诚实的答案是没有人知道，但我们提出了六种可能的原因，解释为什么苏纳克提前行动。第一个原因是他可能已经厌倦了，作为有史以来第二不受欢迎的首相仅次于特拉斯，他可能只是想放弃。听起来这可能像是对苏纳克的廉价党派攻击，但实际上并非如此。首先，现在担任首相确实看起来像是一份令人痛苦的工作。此外，这是许多知情的右翼评论员选择的解释。第二个原因是他想要出其不意，打击改革党。考虑到改革党在几周前的地方选举中只能召集300名左右的议员候选人，他们几乎不可能在7月4日之前派出632名合格的候选人，这种混乱的前景显然让法拉奇望而却步，这对苏纳克来说是个好消息。第三个原因是他想要出其不意，打击工党。因为工党也在预期秋季选举。工党还没有完全完成他们的竞选纲领，苏纳克可能希望通过迫使他们加快撰写政策平台而不给斯塔默时间建立共识，从而引发工党内部的争斗，加剧目前关于加沙问题的内部分歧。第四个原因是苏纳克认为现在是打经济牌的最佳时机。如果他等到秋季，很可能选民关注的焦点会变成其他问题，如移民问题（如果夏季小船偷渡事件增加）或污水问题（如果今年水公司在英国河流中倾倒的污水超过去年）。虽然经济新闻并不理想，但情况确实在改善，显然这是苏纳克最愿意谈论的话题。他可能还认为这是攻击工党的最佳途径之一。历史上，经济一直是工党的政治弱点，他们承诺遵循保守党的限制性开支目标，这意味着在这个问题上两党之间实际上没有太大区别。第五个原因是，尽管普遍观点认为秋季情况会好转，但实际上情况可能不会改善。通胀顽固地高于目标，这意味着利率下调和抵押贷款持有人的缓解现在看起来不太可能，而经济增长不足以证明选前减税是合理的。同样，如果卢旺达计划不起作用，苏纳克现在就选举比等到计划显得更加昂贵和无效时更好。现在选举还避免了保守党和工党的年度党代会，这对保守党来说是好消息，因为他们的会议将充满激烈的内斗，对工党来说则是坏消息，因为他们预计将在会议上筹集大量捐款。第六个也是最后一个可能原因是，苏纳克知道一些我们不知道的重大灾难即将降临英国。例如，可能是泰晤士水务的救助计划，这将花费消费者或纳税人数十亿英镑。也许是西蒙·凯斯今天在COVID调查委员会前的证词。这种信息不对称也解释了为什么苏纳克得出了与几乎所有人不同的结论，而不是简单地暗示他愚蠢。不幸的是，除了苏纳克，没有人确切知道他为什么在这个时候决定选举。--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/yangfx/support
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GBP/EUR 1.1730 GBP/NZD 1.9430
EUR/USD 1.1780 GBP/CNY 8.8960
GBP/JPY 151.10 GBP/SGD 1.8560
GBP/CHF 1.2740 GBP/ZAR 20.000
GBP/CAD 1.7470
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GBP/USD 1.3834 GBP/CAD 1.7514
GBP/EUR 1.1707 GBP/NZD 1.9460
EUR/USD 1.1801 GBP/CNY 8.9301
GBP/JPY 152.28 GBP/SGD 1.8601
GBP/CHF 1.2743 GBP/ZAR 19.621
GBP/AUD 1.8867
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FX MARKET REPORT 10.09.2021
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GBP/USD 1.3790 GBP/CAD 1.7520
GBP/EUR 1.1660 GBP/NZD 1.9390
EUR/USD 1.1825 GBP/CNY 8.8930
GBP/JPY 151.60 GBP/SGD 1.8530
GBP/CHF 1.2680 GBP/ZAR 19.475
GBP/AUD 1.8700
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GBP/USD 1.3777 GBP/AUD 1.8681
GBP/EUR 1.1630 GBP/NZD 1.9406
EUR/USD 1.1844 GBP/CNY 8.8958
GBP/JPY 151.79 GBP/SGD 1.8532
GBP/CHF 1.2650 GBP/ZAR 19.715
GBP/CAD 1.7455
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GBP/USD 1.3829 GBP/CAD 1.7348
GBP/EUR 1.1638 GBP/NZD 1.9401
EUR/USD 1.1865 GBP/CNY 8.9301
GBP/JPY 152.01 GBP/SGD 1.8569
GBP/CHF 1.2630 GBP/ZAR 19.710
GBP/AUD 1.8609
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Country Date Time Impact Forecast Previous
RBA Rate Statement AUD 09/07/2021 4:30am High
BOC Rate Statement CAD 09/08/2021 2:00pm High
Monetary Policy Report Hearings GBP 09/08/2021 3:00pm High
Monetary Policy Statement EUR 09/09/2021 11:45am High
ECB Press Conference EUR 09/09/2021 12:30pm High
BOC Gov Macklem Speaks CAD 09/09/2021 4:00pm High
Employment Change CAD 09/10/2021 12:30pm High 67.2K 94.0K
Unemployment Rate CAD 09/10/2021 12:30pm High 7.30% 7.50%
PPI m/m USD 09/10/2021 12:30pm High 0.60% 1.00%
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FX MARKET REPORT 03.09.2021
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GBP/USD 1.3790 GBP/AUD 1.8660
GBP/EUR 1.1630 GBP/NZD 1.9470
EUR/USD 1.1850 GBP/CNY 8.8880
GBP/JPY 151.70 GBP/SGD 1.8530
GBP/CHF 1.2610 GBP/ZAR 19.785
GBP/CAD 1.7360
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GBP/USD
1.3761
GBP/AUD
1.8731
GBP/EUR
1.1659
GBP/NZD
1.9478
EUR/USD
1.1804
GBP/CNY
8.8927
GBP/JPY
151.92
GBP/SGD
1.8522
GBP/CHF
1.2630
GBP/ZAR
19.838
GBP/CAD
1.7322
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GBP/USD
1.3790
GBP/CAD
1.7336
GBP/EUR
1.1645
GBP/NZD
1.9515
EUR/USD
1.1820
GBP/CNY
8.9101
GBP/JPY
151.45
GBP/SGD
1.8520
GBP/CHF
1.2618
GBP/ZAR
20.310
GBP/AUD
1.8801
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GBP/USD 1.3750 GBP/AUD 1.8925
GBP/EUR 1.1680 GBP/NZD 1.9740
EUR/USD 1.1770 GBP/CNY 8.9010
GBP/JPY 151.50 GBP/SGD 1.8585
GBP/CHF 1.2600 GBP/ZAR 20.565
GBP/CAD 1.7320
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GBP/USD 1.3719 GBP/AUD 1.8933
GBP/EUR 1.1688 GBP/NZD 1.9760
EUR/USD 1.1737 GBP/CNY 8.8850
GBP/JPY 150.64 GBP/SGD 1.8567
GBP/CHF 1.2542 GBP/ZAR 20.497
GBP/CAD 1.7310
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GBP/USD 1.3720 GBP/CAD 1.7320
GBP/EUR 1.1690 GBP/NZD 1.9780
EUR/USD 1.1730 GBP/CNY 8.8870
GBP/JPY 150.70 GBP/SGD 1.8600
GBP/CHF 1.2525 GBP/ZAR 20.755
GBP/AUD 1.8980
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Country Date Time Impact Forecast Previous German Flash Manufacturing PMI EUR 08-23-2021 7:30am High 65.1 65.6 German Flash Services PMI EUR 08-23-2021 7:30am High 61 62.2 Prelim GDP q/q USD 08-26-2021 12:30pm High 6.70% 6.50% Jackson Hole Symposium ALL 08-26-2021 4:15pm High
Core PCE Price Index m/m USD 08-27-2021 12:30pm High 0.30% 0.40% Fed Chair Powell Speaks USD 08-27-2021 2:00pm High
Jackson Hole Symposium ALL 08-27-2021 4:15pm High
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FX MARKET REPORT 20.08.2021
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GBP/USD 1.3700 GBP/AUD 1.9100
GBP/EUR 1.1730 GBP/NZD 2.0040
EUR/USD 1.1680 GBP/CNY 8.9010
GBP/JPY 150.50 GBP/SGD 1.8700
GBP/CHF 1.2570 GBP/ZAR 20.705
GBP/CAD 1.7440
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GBP/USD 1.3753 GBP/AUD 1.8933
GBP/EUR 1.1727 GBP/NZD 1.9859
EUR/USD 1.1726 GBP/CNY 8.9100
GBP/JPY 150.64 GBP/SGD 1.9696
GBP/CHF 1.2557 GBP/ZAR 20.459
GBP/CAD 1.7344
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GBP/USD 1.3782 GBP/CAD 1.7404
GBP/EUR 1.1705 GBP/NZD 1.9943
EUR/USD 1.1749 GBP/CNY 8.9401
GBP/JPY 150.47 GBP/SGD 1.8734
GBP/CHF 1.2547 GBP/ZAR 20.381
GBP/AUD 1.8926
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FX MARKET REPORT 13.08.2021
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GBP/USD 1.3860 GBP/CAD 1.7350
GBP/EUR 1.1810 GBP/NZD 1.9725
EUR/USD 1.1740 GBP/CNY 8.9800
GBP/JPY 153.10 GBP/SGD 1.8820
GBP/CHF 1.2780 GBP/ZAR 20.405
GBP/AUD 1.8830
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GBP/USD 1.3816 GBP/AUD 1.8850
GBP/EUR 1.1796 GBP/NZD 1.9743
EUR/USD 1.1712 GBP/CNY 8.9608
GBP/JPY 153.02 GBP/SGD 1.9783
GBP/CHF 1.2759 GBP/ZAR 20.504
GBP/CAD 1.7319
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GBP/USD 1.3850 GBP/CAD 1.7401 GBP/EUR 1.1805 GBP/NZD 1.9825 EUR/USD 1.1726 GBP/CNY 8.9801
GBP/JPY 153.01 GBP/SGD 1.8810 GBP/CHF 1.2746 GBP/ZAR 20.361 GBP/AUD 1.8882
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Country
Date
Time
Impact
Forecast
Previous
Core CPI m/m
USD
08-11-2021
12:30pm
High
0.4%
0.9%
CPI m/m
USD
08-11-2021
12:30pm
High
0.5%
0.9%
PPI m/m
USD
08-12-2021
12:30pm
High
0.6%
1.0%
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GBP/USD 1.3916 GBP/AUD 1.8835
GBP/EUR 1.1767 GBP/NZD 1.9753
EUR/USD 1.1819 GBP/CNY 8.9958
GBP/JPY 152.76 GBP/SGD 1.8801
GBP/CHF 1.2631 GBP/ZAR 20.171
GBP/CAD 1.7399
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GBP/USD
1.3915
GBP/AUD
1.8800
GBP/EUR
1.1745
GBP/NZD
1.9700
EUR/USD
1.1845
GBP/CNY
8.9880
GBP/JPY
152.50
GBP/SGD
1.8780
GBP/CHF
1.2600
GBP/ZAR
20.000
GBP/CAD
1.7420
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GBP/USD 1.3936 GBP/AUD 1.8811
GBP/EUR 1.1731 GBP/NZD 1.9716
EUR/USD 1.1875 GBP/CNY 9.0022
GBP/JPY 151.96 GBP/SGD 1.8790
GBP/CHF 1.2591 GBP/ZAR 19.894
GBP/CAD 1.7456
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GBP/USD 1.3901 GBP/CAD 1.7376 GBP/EUR 1.1702 GBP/NZD 1.9801 EUR/USD 1.1870 GBP/CNY 8.9901 GBP/JPY 151.54 GBP/SGD 1.8776 GBP/CHF 1.2565 GBP/ZAR 20.041 GBP/AUD 1.8801
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Country Date Time Impact Forecast Previous
ISM Manufacturing PMI USD 08/02/2021 2:00pm High 60.8 60.6
RBA Rate Statement AUD 08/03/2021 4:30am High
Employment Change q/q NZD 08/03/2021 10:45pm High 0.70% 0.60%
Unemployment Rate NZD 08/03/2021 10:45pm High 4.40% 4.70%
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change USD 08/04/2021 12:15pm High 645K 692K
ISM Services PMI USD 08/04/2021 2:00pm High 60.5 60.1
BOE Monetary Policy Report GBP 08/05/2021 11:00am High
MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes GBP 08/05/2021 11:00am High 0-1-8 0-1-8
Asset Purchase Facility GBP 08/05/2021 11:00am High 895B 895B
Monetary Policy Summary GBP 08/05/2021 11:00am High
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks AUD 08/05/2021 11:00pm High
MPC Member Broadbent Speaks GBP 08/06/2021 11:15am High
Non-Farm Employment Change USD 08/06/2021 12:30pm High 895K 850K
Average Hourly Earnings m/m USD 08/06/2021 12:30pm High 0.30% 0.30%
Unemployment Rate USD 08/06/2021 12:30pm High 5.70% 5.90%
Unemployment Rate CAD 08/06/2021 12:30pm High 7.30% 7.80%
Employment Change CAD 08/06/2021 12:30pm High 147.5K 230.7K
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GBP/USD 1.3972 GBP/AUD 1.8884
GBP/EUR 1.1753 GBP/NZD 1.9920
EUR/USD 1.1896 GBP/CNY 9.0224
GBP/JPY 152.98 GBP/SGD 1.8886
GBP/CHF 1.2658 GBP/ZAR 20.337
GBP/CAD 1.7373
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GBP/USD 1.3915 GBP/CAD 1.7381
GBP/EUR 1.1737 GBP/NZD 1.9953
EUR/USD 1.1837 GBP/CNY 9.0101
GBP/JPY 152.72 GBP/SGD 1.8864
GBP/CHF 1.2095 GBP/ZAR 20.401
GBP/AUD 1.8853
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GBP/USD 1.3880 GBP/AUD 1.8896
GBP/EUR 1.1753 GBP/NZD 1.9981
EUR/USD 1.1809 GBP/CNY 9.0261
GBP/JPY 152.51 GBP/SGD 1.8879
GBP/CHF 1.2702 GBP/ZAR 20.566
GBP/CAD 1.7468
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GBP/USD
1.3780
GBP/CAD
1.7350
GBP/EUR
1.1700
GBP/NZD
1.9820
EUR/USD
1.1780
GBP/CNY
8.9750
GBP/JPY
151.60
GBP/SGD
1.8760
GBP/CHF
1.2630
GBP/ZAR
20.575
GBP/AUD
1.8760
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Country Date Time Impact Forecast Previous CB Consumer Confidence USD 07-27-2021 2:00pm High 123.9 127.3 CPI q/q AUD 07-28-2021 1:30am High 0.7% 0.6% Trimmed Mean CPI q/q AUD 07-28-2021 1:30am High 0.5% 0.3% CPI m/m CAD 07-28-2021 12:30pm High 0.4% 0.5% FOMC Statement USD 07-28-2021 6:00pm High FOMC Press Conference USD 07-28-2021 6:30pm High Advance GDP q/q USD 07-29-2021 12:30pm High 8.5% 6.4% GDP m/m CAD 07-30-2021 12:30pm High -0.3% -0.3% Core PCE Price Index m/m USD 07-30-2021 12:30pm High 0.6% 0.5%
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GBP/USD 1.3728 GBP/AUD 1.8648
GBP/EUR 1.1650 GBP/NZD 1.9721
EUR/USD 1.1779 GBP/CNY 8.8941
GBP/JPY 151.64 GBP/SGD 1.8671
GBP/CHF 1.2624 GBP/ZAR 20.27
GBP/CAD 1.7262
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GBP/USD 1.3750 GBP/AUD 1.8640
GBP/EUR 1.1650 GBP/NZD 1.9740
EUR/USD 1.1800 GBP/CNY 8.8880
GBP/JPY 151.50 GBP/SGD 1.8700
GBP/CHF 1.2610 GBP/ZAR 19.975
GBP/CAD 1.7280
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GBP/USD 1.3610 GBP/AUD 1.8648
GBP/EUR 1.1560 GBP/NZD 1.9721
EUR/USD 1.1773 GBP/CNY 8.8003
GBP/JPY 149.48 GBP/SGD 1.8602
GBP/CHF 1.2546 GBP/ZAR 19.999
GBP/CAD 1.7301
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GBP/USD 1.3650 GBP/AUD 1.8640
GBP/EUR 1.1590 GBP/NZD 1.9765
EUR/USD 1.1175 GBP/CNY 8.8500
GBP/JPY 149.65 GBP/SGD 1.8640
GBP/CHF 1.2540 GBP/ZAR 19.885
GBP/CAD 1.7425
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GBP/USD 1.3720 GBP/AUD 1.8648
GBP/EUR 1.1653 GBP/NZD 1.9721
EUR/USD 1.1773 GBP/CNY 8.8954
GBP/JPY 150.53 GBP/SGD 1.8677
GBP/CHF 1.2636 GBP/ZAR 19.859
GBP/CAD 1.7531
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Pound weakens near the end of the week amid risk aversion. GBP/USD could post the lowest weekly close since April. Decisive ECB policy action to back up the new policy framework could trigger a fresh EUR sell off next week at a time when other major central banks (BoE & Fed) are moving closer to raising rates. A failure to act would provide some relief for the EUR. The risks though for next week are higher that there is a more lasting impact on EUR given this meeting follows the updated monetary policy strategy review and ECB President Lagarde has clearly indicated that changes will be made, at least to guidance and depending how explicit those changes are will determine the impact. Any shock or surprise is likely to imply a EUR downside move. EUR/USD is likely to remain in a consolidation phase between 1.1770 and 1.1895 in the next 1-3 weeks. The dollar edged higher on Friday, logging its largest weekly gain in a month, after upbeat retail sales data boosted expectations that economic growth accelerated in the second quarter.
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GBP/USD
1.3825
GBP/CAD
1.7320
GBP/EUR
1.1680
GBP/NZD
1.9700
EUR/USD
1.1830
GBP/CNY
8.9270
GBP/JPY
151.80
GBP/SGD
1.8700
GBP/CHF
1.2640
GBP/ZAR
20.000
GBP/AUD
1.8500
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GBP/USD 1.3850 GBP/AUD 1.8555
GBP/EUR 1.1744 GBP/NZD 1.9721
EUR/USD 1.1795 GBP/CNY 8.9679
GBP/JPY 152.95 GBP/SGD 1.8756
GBP/CHF 1.2714 GBP/ZAR 20.352
GBP/CAD 1.7305
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GBP/USD 1.3855 GBP/CAD 1.7262
GBP/EUR 1.1693 GBP/NZD 1.9834
EUR/USD 1.1841 GBP/CNY 8.9701
GBP/JPY 153.02 GBP/SGD 1.8725
GBP/CHF 1.2682 GBP/ZAR 20.041
GBP/AUD 1.8504
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Title Country Date Time Impact Forecast Previous CPI m/m USD 07-13-2021 12:30pm High 0.50% 0.60% Core CPI m/m USD 07-13-2021 12:30pm High 0.40% 0.70% RBNZ Rate Statement NZD 07-14-2021 2:00am High PPI m/m USD 07-14-2021 12:30pm High 0.60% 0.80% BOC Rate Statement CAD 07-14-2021 2:00pm High BOC Monetary Policy Report CAD 07-14-2021 2:00pm High BOC Press Conference CAD 07-14-2021 3:00pm High Fed Chair Powell Testifies USD 07-14-2021 4:00pm High Employment Change AUD 07-15-2021 1:30am High 19.7K 115.2K Unemployment Rate AUD 07-15-2021 1:30am High 5.10% 5.10% GDP q/y CNY 07-15-2021 2:00am High 8.00% 18.30% Fed Chair Powell Testifies USD 07-15-2021 1:30pm High CPI q/q NZD 07-15-2021 10:45pm High 0.70% 0.80% BOJ Outlook Report JPY 07-16-2021 3:12am High Retail Sales m/m USD 07-16-2021 12:30pm High -0.40% -1.30% Core Retail Sales m/m USD 07-16-2021 12:30pm High 0.40% -0.70%
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GBP/USD 1.3756 GBP/CAD 1.8447
GBP/EUR 1.1628 GBP/NZD 1.9775
EUR/USD 1.1827 GBP/CNY 8.9126
GBP/JPY 153.50 GBP/SGD 1.8588
GBP/CHF 1.2753 GBP/ZAR 19.924
GBP/AUD 1.7111
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GBP/USD 1.3755 GBP/CAD 1.7278
GBP/EUR 1.1652 GBP/NZD 1.9757
EUR/USD 1.1795 GBP/CNY 8.9299
GBP/JPY 151.26 GBP/SGD 1.8216
GBP/CHF 1.2701 GBP/ZAR 19.851
GBP/AUD 1.8519
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GBP/USD 1.3756 GBP/CAD 1.8447
GBP/EUR 1.1628 GBP/NZD 1.9775
EUR/USD 1.1827 GBP/CNY 8.9126
GBP/JPY 153.50 GBP/SGD 1.8588
GBP/CHF 1.2753 GBP/ZAR 19.924
GBP/AUD 1.7111
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GBP/USD
1.3867
GBP/CAD
1.7082
GBP/EUR
1.1666
GBP/NZD
1.9556
EUR/USD
1.1869
GBP/CNY
8.8701
GBP/JPY
153.82
GBP/SGD
1.8638
GBP/CHF
1.2765
GBP/ZAR
19.631
GBP/AUD
1.8301
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Title
Country
Date
Time
Impact
Forecast
Previous
RBA Rate Statement
AUD
07-06-2021
4:30am
High
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
AUD
07-06-2021
6:00am
High
OPEC-JMMC Meetings
ALL
07-06-2021
10:15am
High
ISM Services PMI
USD
07-06-2021
2:00pm
High
63.4
64.0
FOMC Meeting Minutes
USD
07-07-2021
6:00pm
High
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
AUD
07-08-2021
2:30am
High
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
GBP
07-09-2021
10:00am
High
Employment Change
CAD
07-09-2021
12:30pm
High
200.0K
-68.0K
Unemployment Rate
CAD
07-09-2021
12:30pm
High
7.7%
8.2%
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GBP/USD 1.3756 GBP/AUD 1.8447
GBP/EUR 1.1628 GBP/NZD 1.9775
EUR/USD 1.1827 GBP/CNY 8.9126
GBP/JPY 153.50 GBP/SGD 1.8588
GBP/CHF 1.2753 GBP/ZAR 19.924
GBP/CAD 1.7111
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GBP/USD 1.3820 GBP/CAD 1.7140
GBP/EUR 1.1660 GBP/NZD 1.9770
EUR/USD 1.1850 GBP/CNY 8.9300
GBP/JPY 153.80 GBP/SGD 1.8600
GBP/CHF 1.2800 GBP/ZAR 19.725
GBP/AUD 1.8450
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GBP/USD 1.3849 GBP/CAD 1.7101
GBP/EUR 1.1618 GBP/NZD 1.9715
EUR/USD 1.1902 GBP/CNY 8.9501
GBP/JPY 153.22 GBP/SGD 1.8211
GBP/CHF 1.2733 GBP/ZAR 19.691
GBP/AUD 1.8335
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GBP/USD 1.3824 GBP/AUD 1.8393
GBP/EUR 1.1622 GBP/NZD 1.9775
EUR/USD 1.1895 GBP/CNY 8.9223
GBP/JPY 152.78 GBP/SGD 1.8591
GBP/CHF 1.2749 GBP/ZAR 19.759
GBP/CAD 1.7144
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BOE Gov Bailey Speaks GBP 07/01/2021 8:00am High
OPEC-JMMC Meetings ALL 07/01/2021 10:15am High
ISM Manufacturing PMI USD 07/01/2021 2:00pm High 61 61.2
Non-Farm Employment Change USD 07/02/2021 12:30pm High 700K 559K
Unemployment Rate USD 07/02/2021 12:30pm High 5.60% 5.80%
Average Hourly Earnings m/m USD 07/02/2021 12:30pm High 0.40% 0.50%
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GBP/USD 1.3916 GBP/AUD 1.8317
GBP/EUR 1.1649 GBP/NZD 1.9661
EUR/USD 1.1977 GBP/CNY 8.9782
GBP/JPY 154.16 GBP/SGD 1.8651
GBP/CHF 1.2767 GBP/ZAR 19.653
GBP/CAD 1.7120
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GBP/USD 1.3960 GBP/AUD 1.8410
GBP/EUR 1.1680 GBP/NZD 1.9770
EUR/USD 1.1940 GBP/CNY 9.0310
GBP/JPY 154.70 GBP/SGD 1.8750
GBP/CHF 1.2810 GBP/ZAR 19.885
GBP/CAD 1.7160
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GBP/USD 1.3972 GBP/AUD 1.8473
GBP/EUR 1.1698 GBP/NZD 1.9855
EUR/USD 1.1941 GBP/CNY 9.0572
GBP/JPY 154.91 GBP/SGD 1.8797
GBP/CHF 1.2823 GBP/ZAR 19.791
GBP/CAD 1.7174
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GBP/USD 1.3901 GBP/CAD 1.7205
GBP/EUR 1.1677 GBP/NZD 1.9905
EUR/USD 1.1901 GBP/CNY 8.9901
GBP/JPY 153.50 GBP/SGD 1.8702
GBP/CHF 1.2781 GBP/ZAR 19.831
GBP/AUD 1.8501
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Title Country Date Time Impact Forecast Previous ECB President Lagarde Speaks EUR 06-21-2021 2:15pm High Fed Chair Powell Testifies USD 06-22-2021 6:00pm High German Flash Manufacturing PMI EUR 06-23-2021 7:30am High 63 64 German Flash Services PMI EUR 06-23-2021 7:30am High 55.8 52.8 Flash Manufacturing PMI USD 06-23-2021 1:45pm High 61.5 61.5 Flash Services PMI USD 06-23-2021 1:45pm High 70 70.1 Asset Purchase Facility GBP 06-24-2021 11:00am High 895B 895B Monetary Policy Summary GBP 06-24-2021 11:00am High MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes GBP 06-24-2021 11:00am High 0-1-8
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GBP/USD 1.3868 GBP/AUD 1.8413
GBP/EUR 1.1649 GBP/NZD 1.9880
EUR/USD 1.1905 GBP/CNY 8.9312
GBP/JPY 152.71 GBP/SGD 1.8607
GBP/CHF 1.2729 GBP/ZAR 19.510
GBP/CAD 1.7161
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GBP/USD 1.3970 GBP/CAD 1.7180
GBP/EUR 1.1700 GBP/NZD 1.9790
EUR/USD 1.1950 GBP/CNY 8.9870
GBP/JPY 154.55 GBP/SGD 1.8710
GBP/CHF 1.2755 GBP/ZAR 19.625
GBP/AUD 1.8360
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GBP/USD 1.4107 GBP/CAD 1.7113
GBP/EUR 1.1605 GBP/NZD 1.9720
EUR/USD 1.2129 GBP/CNY 9.0301
GBP/JPY 155.10 GBP/SGD 1.8710
GBP/CHF 1.2643 GBP/ZAR 19.271
GBP/AUD 1.8305
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GBP/USD 1.4116 GBP/AUD 1.8337
GBP/EUR 1.1634 GBP/NZD 1.9775
EUR/USD 1.2132 GBP/CNY 9.0291
GBP/JPY 155.20 GBP/SGD 1.8713
GBP/CHF 1.2675 GBP/ZAR 19.429
GBP/CAD 1.7191
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BOE Gov Bailey Speaks GBP 06-15-2021 12:15pm High
Core Retail Sales m/m USD 06-15-2021 12:30pm High 0.40% -0.80%
Retail Sales m/m USD 06-15-2021 12:30pm High -0.60% 0.00%
PPI m/m USD 06-15-2021 12:30pm High 0.50% 0.60%
FOMC Statement USD 06-16-2021 6:00pm High
FOMC Economic Projections USD 06-16-2021 6:00pm High
FOMC Press Conference USD 06-16-2021 6:30pm High
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GBP/USD 1.4168 GBP/AUD 1.8236 GBP/EUR 1.1627 GBP/NZD 1.9661 EUR/USD 1.2183 GBP/CNY 9.0524 GBP/JPY 155.02 GBP/SGD 1.8726 GBP/CHF 1.2662 GBP/ZAR 19.167 GBP/CAD 1.7123
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GBP/USD 1.4080
GBP/AUD 1.8220
GBP/EUR 1.1580
GBP/NZD 1.9625
EUR/USD 1.2160
GBP/CNY 8.9900
GBP/JPY 154.25
GBP/SGD 1.8660
GBP/CHF 1.2630
GBP/ZAR 19.275
GBP/CAD 1.7070
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GBP/USD 1.4170 GBP/CAD 1.8295
GBP/EUR 1.1637 GBP/NZD 1.9677
EUR/USD 1.2179 GBP/CNY 9.0626
GBP/JPY 155.16 GBP/SGD 1.8752
GBP/CHF 1.2713 GBP/ZAR 19.215
GBP/AUD 1.7145
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GBP/USD 1.4140 GBP/CAD 1.7088
GBP/EUR 1.1606 GBP/NZD 1.9600
EUR/USD 1.2164 GBP/CNY 9.0400
GBP/JPY 154.76 GBP/SGD 1.8716
GBP/CHF 1.2700 GBP/ZAR 19.200
GBP/AUD 1.8254
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Monetary Policy Statement EUR 06/10/2021 11:45am High
Core CPI m/m USD 06/10/2021 12:30pm High 0.50% 0.90%
CPI m/m USD 06/10/2021 12:30pm High 0.40% 0.80%
ECB Press Conference EUR 06/10/2021 12:30pm High
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks GBP 06/11/2021 8:30am High
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GBP/USD 1.4155 GBP/AUD 1.8330
GBP/EUR 1.1615 GBP/NZD 1.9625
EUR/USD 1.2185 GBP/CNY 9.0400
GBP/JPY 155.35 GBP/SGD 1.8740
GBP/CHF 1.2750 GBP/ZAR 19.205
GBP/CAD 1.7070
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GBP/USD 1.4138 GBP/AUD 1.8282
GBP/EUR 1.1579 GBP/NZD 1.9558
EUR/USD 1.2210 GBP/CNY 9.0291
GBP/JPY 155.13 GBP/SGD 1.8711
GBP/CHF 1.2683 GBP/ZAR 19.466
GBP/CAD 1.7077
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GBP/USD
1.4186
GBP/AUD
1.8365
GBP/EUR
1.1640
GBP/NZD
1.9569
EUR/USD
1.2184
GBP/CNY
9.0378
GBP/JPY
155.87
GBP/SGD
1.8773
GBP/CHF
1.2747
GBP/ZAR
19.654
GBP/CAD
1.7148
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GBP/USD 1.4125 GBP/CAD 1.7100
GBP/EUR 1.1570 GBP/NZD 1.9350
EUR/USD 1.2200 GBP/CNY 9.0000
GBP/JPY 154.10 GBP/SGD 1.8690
GBP/CHF 1.2670 GBP/ZAR 19.355
GBP/AUD 1.8220
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GBP/USD
1.4132
GBP/CAD
1.8176
GBP/EUR
1.1548
GBP/NZD
1.9344
EUR/USD
1.2241
GBP/CNY
9.0403
GBP/JPY
153.89
GBP/SGD
1.8722
GBP/CHF
1.2652
GBP/ZAR
19.581
GBP/AUD
1.7057
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GBP/USD
1.4179
GBP/CAD
1.7064
GBP/EUR
1.1580
GBP/NZD
1.9601
EUR/USD
1.2226
GBP/CNY
9.0801
GBP/JPY
154.21
GBP/SGD
1.8812
GBP/CHF
1.2701
GBP/ZAR
19.581
GBP/AUD
1.8251
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Sterling has been standing proud of late and continues to grind higher against most of its rivals. The recent strong PMIs have underlined the optimistic case for the British economic outlook and it is a clear the wind is in the sails of Sterling and many are now expecting to see 1.44 against the dollar coming over the horizon. Data is thin on the ground this week with only UK public finance numbers being released tomorrow and any impact should be limited.
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GBP/USD: Bulls attack 1.4200 on strong UK Retail Sales, PMI eyed
• GBP/USD jumps on upbeat UK Retail Sales for April. • EUR/USD: Extra gains seen above 1.2265 – UOB. • Dollar heads for weekly loss as taper fears ebb; crypto bounce loses steam.
GBP/USD 1.4191 GBP/EUR 1.1591 EUR/USD 1.2241 GBP/JPY 154.63
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GBP/USD 1.4140 GBP/CAD 1.7110 GBP/EUR 1.1590 GBP/NZD 1.9650 EUR/USD 1.2200 GBP/CNY 9.0970 GBP/JPY 154.10 GBP/SGD 1.8830 GBP/CHF 1.2730 GBP/ZAR 19.905 GBP/AUD 1.8220
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GBP/USD remains confined in a range below 1.4200 mark post-UK CPI • Commerzbank: GBP/USD to Break above 1.4238/45 towards 1.4377 • EUR/USD: Bulls on the runway to test 1.2250 amid bullish MACD • Dollar holds fast before Fed, bitcoin crumbles on China risk
GBP/USD 1.4191 GBP/EUR 1.1591 EUR/USD 1.2241 GBP/JPY 154.63
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GBP/USD
1.4163
GBP/CAD
1.7046
GBP/EUR
1.1622
GBP/NZD
1.9545
EUR/USD
1.2167
GBP/CNY
9.1101
GBP/JPY
154.50
GBP/SGD
1.8858
GBP/CHF
1.2740
GBP/ZAR
19.801
GBP/AUD
1.8170
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Last week we saw Cable break above the psychological 1.40 level. Though cause for concern is the recent spread of the Indian strain of the virus. Across the Atlantic and the U.S. macro story remains positive with the economy posting growth, but the recent jobs numbers have highlighted supply constraints in the economy while the rising inflation numbers have surprised the geniuses in officialdom.
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The GBP/USD pair seems to be in a corrective pullback on Friday, having tested multi-month highs at 1.4166 on March 11. Brexit remains a pain area for the cable, UK condemns EU over Brexit finance ‘threats’ and asks for its resolution in the latest developments. As for now, investors turn their attention to US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data to gain fresh trading impetus. EUR/USD has been able to stabilise as the market mood improved. Support for the pair awaits at 1.2075, which was a swing high in early May. It is followed by 1.2055, the weekly trough, and then by 1.2015 and the psychologically significant 1.20. Some resistance is at the recent high of 1.2110, followed by 1.2150, April's peak, and then by the current month's top line of 1.2180. The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras noted on Thursday that markets show an increase in inflation expectations but added that inflation worries in Europe are not the same as in the US, per Reuters. This helped the regional currency traders to stay optimistic even as recent fears from the prices probes recovery moves. The ECB policymakers are not only less worried about inflation but also hope for a stronger recovery in 2021 and 2022, per the latest economic forecast. Though, the bloc accepts that the pick-up seems to lag behind the UK. The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.02% to 90.755 The USD/JPY pair edged up 0.14% to 109.61. The AUD/USD pair inched down 0.06% to 0.7724 and the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.04% to 0.7174. The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.08% to 6.4457.
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GBP/USD maintains its base above the March highs at 1.4001/17. Economists at Credit Suisse look a move back to 1.4238, then to the first core upside target of 1.4302/77. EUR/USD reverses the pessimism seen at the beginning of the week and manages to reclaim buying interest and re-visits the mid-1.2100s, or daily highs so far. Coupled with the soft note in the dollar, yields of the German 10-year Bund climb to the vicinity of monthly highs around -0.17%, all rendering into extra wings to the pair amidst the better mood in the risk complex. In the euro docket, the German/EMU ZEW survey will take centre stage later in the session. In the NA session, the NFIB Index comes up next followed by the JOLTs Job Openings and the API’s weekly report on US oil stockpiles. EUR/USD extended further the bounce off the 1.1985/80 band and faltered in the 1.2180 region so far, area coincident with a Fibo level (of the November-January rally). The dollar index was up 0.1% at 90.245, after dipping as low as 90.130 for the first time since Feb. 26. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 108.91. Looking at the main commodity currencies, USD/CAD traded at 1.2096, close to its weakest in more than three years. AUD/USD gained 0.1% to 0.7833, near an 11-week high, while NZD/USD was quoted at 0.7269, which is near its strongest level since late February.
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GBP/USD gained strong follow-through traction for the second straight session on Monday. The Scottish election outlook provided some relief to the GBP and remained supportive. A modest USD rebound – amid an uptick in the US bond yields – did little to hinder the move. EUR/USD pushes higher and advances to new highs near 1.2180. The weakness around the dollar props up the upside in spot. Yields of the German 10-year Bund climb to the -0.20% area. The dollar languished at around 2-1/2 month lows on Monday as investors bet that rising inflation would erode the currency's value as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its loose monetary policy. The five-year breakeven inflation rate - which measures expectations of inflation five years out - reached its highest since April 2011 on Monday. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate - a measure of expectations of inflation in 10 years time - rose to its highest since March 2013. A weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday helped persuade market participants that the Fed would keep rates low and continue purchasing assets, even if inflation rises. The United States created a little more than a quarter of the jobs that economists had forecast last month and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher. In recent years, rising inflation expectations have helped the dollar because investors have assumed interest rates would be raised in response to higher prices. The dollar index was last at 90.205, up 0.06% on the day, having earlier hit its lowest since Feb. 25.
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The GBP/USD pair built on its intraday positive move through the first half of the European session and shot to fresh daily tops, around the 1.3925-30 region in the last hour. Following the previous day's post-BoE two-way price moves, the pair caught some fresh bids on the last trading day of the week and was supported by a combination of factors. The British pound was underpinned by the Bank of England's more upbeat economic forecasts and decided to slow the pace of weekly bond buying. EUR/USD has essentially held price support at 1.1995/90, just ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the March/April rally at 1.1980. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 90.905, near its lowest level this week. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 109.16, the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7766, while USD/CAD rose 0.2% to 1.2176, having fallen to a 3-1/2-year low of 1.2145 overnight, helped by the Bank of Canada's recent tapering of its asset purchases and its shift to more hawkish guidance. The greenback has traded in narrow ranges Friday, with traders focusing on the release of U.S. payrolls data, at 1230 GMT, which are expected to confirm the U.S. labour market is on a solid path towards recovery from the pandemic.
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GBP/USD: Critical support at 1.3880 appears at risk on BOE, Scottish elections according to Confluence Detector. Sterling ticked up against the dollar yesterday as a poll showed Scotland’s main pro-independence party was unlikely to win an outright majority in Thursday’s election, undermining its hopes for a referendum on separating from Britain. The Scottish National Party (SNP) wants a majority in the devolved parliament to demand another referendum, although British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated that he will not grant one. Policymakers at the Bank of England meet today where it will publish its May Monetary Policy Report. Analysts however believe it is probably too early in the economic recovery cycle for the BoE to announce a reduction of its bond-buying scheme, let alone raise interest rates. Euro area growth forecast at 4.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022. The dollar hovered near a two-week high overnight, consolidating ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that may provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will dial back monetary stimulus. The greenback has rebounded from a one-month low over the past week, swung by U.S. economic data that has largely supported the case for a rapid recovery from the pandemic, with traders weighing whether a lift in inflation may force the Fed’s hand earlier than policymakers have so far suggested.
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GBP struggles around $1.3900 despite triangle breakout, as the US dollar picks up bids and resumes Tuesday’s uptrend. Ongoing Brexit concerns over the Northern Ireland border issues and strong US economic data also weigh on the cable. The dollar's bounce on Tuesday put pressure on the euro, which dropped to $1.2021 and threatened to breach important chart support in the $1.1995/1.2000 area. The dollar indexwas last at 91.319 after rising as high as 91.436 earlier in the session, its highest since April 19.The earlier bounce was partly prompted by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy from overheating. Yellen later downplayed their importance, but even the slightest mention of U.S. tightening has an outsized impact in markets that have become so dependent on monetary stimulus.Three Fed officials spoke on Wednesday, with Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans saying that while he was more optimistic about U.S. economic growth than he was a few months ago, he expects monetary policy to stay super-easy for some time.
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GBP/USD drops to 1.3900 neighbourhood, fresh session lows. EUR/USD set to climb towards the 2021 high at 1.2349 – Commerzbank. The slide from 1.2150 to 1.21 is probably not the usual "buy the dip" opportunity. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 90.648, trading around levels last seen in late February. The index is on course to end the week 0.2% lower, bringing its losses for April to 2.8%. A four-week losing streak would be the longest since the six-week slide to the end of July. In part that's because of the gains of commodity currencies, amid surging prices for both industrial and agricultural products. The dollar's biggest losses this week have been against the Canadian and New Zealand dollars. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 108.77, just off the two-week high of 109.22 from Thursday. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.7779, climbing back toward the six-week high of 0.7818 seen on Thursday. This dollar weakness was helped by the decision of the Federal Reserve to leave its ultra easy monetary policies in place even while it acknowledged that there had been an improvement in the economic conditions, as typified by first-quarter GDP growth of 6.4%, released Thursday.
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GBP/USD: Poised to test the March highs at 1.4001/17. EUR/USD has broken key resistance from its March high, 61.8% retracement of its Q1 fall and downtrend from the beginning of the year at 1.2103/18. Analysts at Credit look for further strength to 1.2212, potentially the 1.2243 February high. EUR/USD removed key resistance at 1.2103/18 yesterday and completed a bullish ‘outside day’ in the process, reasserting an upward bias again. With the USD itself also under pressure and expected to weaken further into month-end we look for further strength to the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 fall at 1.2212, with scope for the 1.2243 February high, which we then look to try and cap to define the top of a fresh sideways range. The dollar index was flat at 90.610, trading not far away from a nine-week low. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 108.78. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7794 and NZD/USD climbed 0.1% to 0.7258. The Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to leave the policy interest rate near zero and kept a $120 billion monthly pace of asset purchases, while acknowledging that there had been an improvement in the economic conditions Fed chairman Jerome Powell continued to signal that policy will remain steady for some time, to the benefit of the global economy, with inflation risks distorted by the pandemic-related decline in prices last year.
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GBP/USD bounces off lows, trades with modest losses just below 1.3900, and witnessed some selling on Wednesday, albeit showed some resilience at lower levels. The formation of a symmetrical triangle points to indecision over the pair’s near-term trajectory. EUR/USD has been drifting lower as the dollar gains ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. The dollar index was 0.2% higher at 91.050, bouncing from Monday's low of 90.679, its lowest level since March 3. USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 109.00, extending its recovery from a seven-week low of 107.48 touched last week, with the yen on the back foot as Japan's economic recovery is hampered by lockdowns across its most populous prefectures. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.7741 after Australia’s consumer price index data, released earlier in the day, missed forecasts, rising 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% year-on-year respectively during the first quarter of 2021. The dollar's recent decline has been largely based on the market starting to believe that the Federal Reserve will look through rises in inflation and delay future policy tightening even as the U.S. economy rapidly recovers. With this in mind, attention now turns to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy-setting meeting later Wednesday, and in particular the accompanying comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell given the U.S. central bank is widely expected to maintain its policy settings.
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GBP/USD: Boris kills the pound with his words ahead of the Fed. Initial support awaits at the daily low of 1.3680, followed by 1.3820 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3925, the weekly peak, followed by 1.3950 and the all-important double-top of 1.4010. Euro/dollar continues benefiting from upside momentum on the four-hour chart while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has drifted away from 70 – thus outside overbought territory. The currency pair continues trading above the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. Some resistance awaits at 1.2080, which was a peak in mid-April. The recent peak of 1.2117 is the next level to watch. Support awaits at 1.2050, which was a swing high several weeks ago. The round 1.20 line is a significant cushion. The dollar was 0.2% higher at 90.918, after dipping to the lowest since March 3 overnight at 90.679. AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7793, after a 0.7% rally overnight that took it just shy of a five-week peak. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 108.20, continuing its rise from Friday’s seven-week low of 107.48, after the Bank of Japan held policy steady and took a more positive view on growth while cutting inflation forecasts.
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Three British developments set to boost sterling - Optimism about the NI protocol, Britain's vaccine milestone and bullish BoE comments. EUR/USD retakes the 1.2100 mark and above on Monday. USD-selling continues to support the upside in the pair. German Business Climate improved a tad in April. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was 0.1% lower at 90.778, near levels not seen since the end of February. USD/JPY was 0.1% lower at 107.81, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.7769. Risk appetite has been boosted of late by strong signs of a global economic improvement, to the detriment of the safe haven dollar, with early April manufacturing activity indicators, released late last week, hitting record highs in the United States and also showing impressive improvement in Europe. A survey from Germany's Ifo institute due later on Monday is expected to show business conditions continued to improve in Europe's largest economy. Attention this week will be centred around the latest policy-setting meeting of the Federal Reserve, with the two-day get together scheduled to finish on Wednesday.
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GBP/USD regained positive traction on Friday and stalled its recent slide from multi-week tops. The prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the USD was seen as a key factor lending support. The British pound got an additional boost following the release of upbeat UK PMI prints for April. UK Manufacturing PMI beats estimates with 60.7 in Apr. Services PMI in the UK jumps to 60.1 in Apr, a beat. GBP/USD keeps its range below 1.3900 despite the upbeat UK PMIs. EUR/USD has been bouncing off 1.20 as markets digest the news of US tax hikes. The dollar index was 0.2% lower at 91.155, remaining just above the seven-week low of 90.856 seen on Tuesday. USD/JPY was flat at 107.95, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.7728.
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GBP/USD set to tackle 1.40, fundamental picture remains favourable for cable bulls. Some resistance awaits at the daily high of 1.3950, followed by the fresh April peak of 1.4010. Support is at this week's swing low of 1.3880, followed by 1.3850 and 1.38. EUR/USD moved to fresh peaks around 1.2080 before losing some traction amidst the resurgence of dollar demand and volatility on fresh coronavirus woes. The continuation of the rally has been so far supported by the renewed offered bias in the dollar along with the investors’ shift to the growth prospect in Europe now that the vaccine campaign appears to have gained some serious pace. In addition, solid results from key fundamentals and the improvement in the sentiment in the euro area as of late also appear to bolster the momentum surrounding the single currency. Dollar was 0.1% lower at 91.013, just above the seven-week low of 90.856 seen on Tuesday. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 107.84, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7755, after touching a seven-week high of 1.2079 earlier in the week. Investors have also turned away from the greenback as U.S. Treasury yields reversed their climbs in March 2021, and an auction of 20-year Treasuries drew strong demand on Wednesday, which also helped to cap yields.
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GBP/USD trades with modest losses, still above 1.3900 mark. The European Internal Market Commissioner Breton has stated that at least 12 of the 27 countries in the bloc are confident that they will be able to vaccinate 70% of their adult population by mid-July. Although such good news is likely to be EUR supportive, we do not expect the EUR to react in the same bullish way as GBP did at the start of the year as the UK’s vaccine roll-out accelerated. This was linked with a push higher in gilt yields which in turn coincided with rising treasury yields and, in February, a less dovish than expected tone from the BoE. Germany’s export sector was already well supported last year from Chinese demand, suggesting there is less scope for a spike in GDP than in the UK. Rabobank expects the pound to continue appreciating, forecasting GBP/EUR at 1.1765 on a 3-month view. EUR/USD has extended its recovery further than expected after holding the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695, clearing with relative ease resistance at 1.1990/97. The dollar edged lower in early European trading Wednesday, retreating once more near to seven-week lows as lower bond yields reduced its attractiveness. The dollar index was 0.1% lower at 91.175, after slumping as low as 90.856 on Tuesday for the first time since March 3. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 108.03, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7713.
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GBP/USD eases from multi-week tops, flat-lined below 1.4000 mark. Sustained USD selling, upbeat UK jobs report pushed GBP/USD to multi-week tops on Tuesday. Rebounding US bond yields extended some support to the USD and capped gains for the major. The EUR/USD pair extended its advance to 1.2079, a fresh one-month high, retreating afterwards but holding on to substantial weekly gains in the 1.2040 price zone. The dollar index was 0.1% lower at 90.925, having earlier fallen as low as 90.858, the weakest since March 3. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 108.30, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.6% to 0.7800, hitting a new one-month high as the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its latest policy meeting earlier in the day. The dollar had already been losing traction as U.S. bond yields have slumped from the 14-month peak touched last month, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield trading around 1.60%, reducing the greenback's yield attraction. This followed repeated assurances from Fed policymakers that near-term price pressures will be transitory, and can be 'looked through'. Attention will soon turn to Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank, although few fireworks are expected.
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GBP/USD gained strong positive traction for the sixth consecutive session on Monday. Reduced Fed rate hike bets continued weighing on the USD and remained supportive. A sustained move beyond monthly swing highs will set the stage for additional gains. EUR/USD finally surpasses the key barrier at 1.20 the figure. Further north of 1.20 comes in the 100-day SMA around 1.2050. The dollar traded largely flat in early European trading Monday, remaining near a one-month low, with Treasury yields hovering near the lowest levels in five weeks. The dollar index was marginally lower at 91.523, not far from last week’s low of 91.484, a level not seen since March 18. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 108.53, while AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7741. The 10-year Treasury yield last traded at 1.55%, a sharp fall from the high of just short of 1.78% seen at the end of last month, reducing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets as an investment. The Federal Reserve has been persistent in communicating with the market that it will look through rises in inflation, considering them temporary, keeping the central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policies in place for some time. Fed Governor Christopher Waller continued the theme on Friday, saying the U.S. economy "is ready to rip" as vaccinations continue and activity picks up, but a rise in inflation is likely to be transitory.
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GBP/USD risk looks to be already shifting lower again and below 1.3750 would warn of a retest of key support from the March low at 1.3670/63, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports. Eurozone inflation arrives at 1.3% YoY in March. Monthly CPI in the bloc rises by 0.9% in March. EUR/USD defends minor bids, unfazed around 1.1975 on the data release. According to Eurostat’s final reading of the Eurozone CPI report for March, the consumer prices came in at 1.3% on a yearly basis, meeting the flash estimate of 1.3% and 1.3% expectations. While the core figures steadied at 1.4%, also matching the 0.9% consensus forecasts. The dollar index inched up 0.10% to 91.713. The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.06% to 108.81. The AUD/USD pair edged down 0.16% to 0.7738 and the NZD/USD pair inched down 0.10% to 0.7162. The USD/CNY pair edged up 0.12% to 6.5296. Chinese economic data released earlier in the day said that the GDP for the first quarter grew 18.3% and 0.6% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively in March. Although both figures were lower than forecasted, economic growth soared on a yearly basis while slowing down on a quarterly basis.
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As GBP softened, GBP/USD found solid support in the 1.3670-00 area. However, rebounds are likely to be limited until there is clarity on the 6th May elections. GBP recent softness, notably versus EUR, coincided with a slide in vaccinations since Easter, partly due to a reduced vaccine supply from India while alternatives are yet to be approved. However, the rollout remains above prior targets and weekly vaccinations are still around 3M per week. EUR/USD moves closer to the key 1.20 mark on Thursday. Extra gains remain on the cards if 1.20 is cleared. The dollar index dipped to its lowest since March 18 at 91.535 in the European session before recovering to be basically flat at 91.590. The dollar changed hands at 108.87 yen, after hitting a three-week low of 108.755 on Wednesday. Following the muted USD reaction to the March inflation numbers earlier in the week, it seems that the positive U.S. inflation and growth stories are now largely priced into USD.
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GBP/USD pair is extending the upside momentum in the early European session, touching the highest level in three days near 1.3775. Looking at the technical picture, a sustained strength beyond 200-hour SMA, around the 1.3780 region might be seen as a trigger for intraday bullish traders. That said, a modest US dollar rebound from three-week lows – amid a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields – might cap gains for the GBP/USD pair. The EUR/USD pair’s ability to stay strong beyond 200-day SMA, backed by the strongest bullish MACD signals since early December 2020 suggests the quote’s further upside. Though, a clear run-up past-50-day SMA level of 1.1965 becomes necessary for the EUR/USD buyers before confronting a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked in March, around 1.1988-95. Meanwhile, a daily close below the 200-day SMA level of 1.1906 can recall EUR/USD sellers targeting the early March low near 1.1835. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 91.683, falling to its lowest level since March 22. USD/JPY fell 0.2% at 108.83, touching its lowest level in three weeks, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7676. The U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.6% in March versus the previous month, the largest gain since August 2012, and rose 2.6% from a year earlier, both 0.1 percentage points above market expectations. While these figures were above consensus expectations, there were some in the market that expected a sharper rise in inflation given the extent of pent up demand on the back of hefty fiscal stimulus and a successful vaccination program.
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GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3748 after Britain's economy grew by 0.4% in February from January. The pound is also to pay attention to Scottish elections just before the vote – TDS. EUR/USD hovers around 1.1900 post-ZEW; EUR/USD remains apathetic in the 1.1900 neighbourhood. The dollar alternates gain with losses ahead of US CPI. German, EMU Economic Sentiment deflates in April. The pair is losing 0.10% at 1.1898 and a breach of 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31) would target 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4) en route to 1.1570 (2008-2021 support line). On the upside, the next up barrier is located at 1.1927 (weekly high Apr.8) followed by 1.1989 (weekly high Mar.11) and finally 1.2000 (psychological level). was up 0.1% at 92.210, only marginally higher than Thursday's low of 91.995, which was the weakest since March 23. USD/JPY rose 0.2% at 109.59 while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7610. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has gained by about 2 basis points to just above 1.69% early Tuesday, after the Treasury auctioned $38 billion of 10-year paper on Monday, although this is still well below the 1.78% level hit on March 30, which was the highest in over one year. The greenback has eased back along with U.S. yields this month after surging to multi-month peaks on expectations that massive fiscal stimulus and a robust economic recovery will spur prompt the Fed to tighten faster than it is currently guiding. However, Fed officials have repeatedly stated that the central bank sees any near-term price pressures as transitory, and the central bank will want to see concrete improvements in inflation in employment before it tightens policy.
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GBPUSD: Recovers from daily lows near 1.3670 as UK economy gears up for re-opening. GBPUSD cheered up on hopes of a gradual re-opening of the UK economy.UK Prime Minister Borris Johnson reminded people to behave ‘“responsibly”. However, the strength in the US dollar kept the momentum in check. EUR/USD faces selling pressure below 1.1900. EUR/USD extends Friday’s pullback to the 1.1870 region. USD buying remains behind the softer tone in the pair. EMU’s Retail Sales contracted 0.6% MoM in February. The dollar edged higher in early European trading Monday, but still traded near 2-1/2-week lows as the recent decline in Treasury yields undercut support for it. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 92.248, after falling below 92 late last week for the first time since March 23. USD/JPY fell 0.1% at 109.57, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.76095. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell continued the mantra Sunday that near-term price pressures will prove transitory, and the central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policies were here to stay. He added the U.S. economy is at an "inflection point" with expectations that growth and hiring will pick up speed in the months ahead, but also noted risks that a hasty reopening could lead to a continued increase in coronavirus cases.
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GBP/USD: Mix of British concerns with a rush to the dollar expose the 1.3670 critical support. EUR/USD struggles at the 1.1892 200-DMA, eyes 1.1860 support according to Credit Suisse. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 92.278, after dipping as low as 92.037 earlier Friday for the first time since March 23. The index has dropped around 0.8% this week, the largest fall so far this calendar year. USD/JPY rose 0.2% at 109.47, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.7% to 0.7595, after a warning from Australia's central bank of excessive lending risk. Rising Treasury yields amid expectations that a strong economic recovery and rising inflation would force the Federal Reserve to rein in its ultra easy monetary policies sooner than originally thought led to substantial dollar gains last quarter. However, this tone has changed of late. The weekly initial jobless claims figures on Thursday actually showed U.S. unemployment unexpectedly rose last week, while the minutes for the U.S. central bank’s last meeting showed that the officials remained committed to monetary policy support for some time to come.
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GBP/USD struggled to capitalize on its intraday positive move, despite a softer USD. Concerns over the disruption to the UK's vaccine rollout weighed on the sterling. The set-up support prospects for a retest of multi-week lows, near the 1.3670 area. EUR/USD to head towards 1.1950 on a break above 1.1889 – Credit Suisse The dollar index was down 0.1% at 92.340, after dipping as low as 92.155 on Wednesday for the first time since March 23. USD/JPY fell 0.1% at 109.70, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.3% at 0.7635. The minutes for the U.S. central bank’s last meeting showed that the officials remained cautious about the country’s economic recovery from the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic, even while acknowledging that the recovery was gathering steam, and committed to monetary policy support until a rebound was more secure. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at a virtual International Monetary Fund conference later on Thursday. Also weighing on the greenback has been the recent slide in bond yields. Although the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield last traded around 1.66%, after dipping below 1.63% during the previous session, this is still a far cry from the more than one-year high of above 1.77% late last month.
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The sharp sell-off in GBP to an overnight low of 1.3802 came as a surprise. While the rapid drop appears to be overdone, there is room for GBP to dip below 1.3800. For today, the next support at 1.3750 is unlikely to come under threat (1.3770 is already quite a strong level). Resistance is at 1.3865 followed by 1.3890. GBP/EUR tested the downside of 1.16 early Wednesday, now trading around 1.1620. Economists at Credit Suisse expect the EUR/USD pair to remain in a mild downtrend while there is an asymmetry to further rate differential widening. Their expected Q2 range is 1.14-1.21 and they like to sell rallies towards 1.20. EUR/USD rallying to a two-week high of 1.1878, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping sharply to 1.65%. Yet many investors still question whether the Fed can stick to its dovish stance, particularly given the recent employment data. Friday’s payrolls report was much stronger than expected while Tuesday’s data showed the job market is creating more opportunities at a faster clip than many economists and employers forecast. USD/INR soared 0.8% to 74.065, with the Indian rupee falling to the lowest level since November low after the country’s central bank kept its benchmark repurchase rate at a record low of 4% but cut its cash reverse ratio and also signalled readiness to act to support growth. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 92.390, just above a two-week low of 92.246, slipping further from a five-month high of 93.439 set at the end of last month. USD/JPY rose 0.1% at 109.78, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was down 0.2% at 0.7649.
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The sharp sell-off in GBP to an overnight low of 1.3802 came as a surprise. While the rapid drop appears to be overdone, there is room for GBP to dip below 1.3800. For today, the next support at 1.3750 is unlikely to come under threat (1.3770 is already quite a strong level). Resistance is at 1.3865 followed by 1.3890. GBP/EUR tested the downside of 1.16 early Wednesday, now trading around 1.1620. Economists at Credit Suisse expect the EUR/USD pair to remain in a mild downtrend while there is an asymmetry to further rate differential widening. Their expected Q2 range is 1.14-1.21 and they like to sell rallies towards 1.20. EUR/USD rallying to a two-week high of 1.1878, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping sharply to 1.65%. Yet many investors still question whether the Fed can stick to its dovish stance, particularly given the recent employment data. Friday’s payrolls report was much stronger than expected while Tuesday’s data showed the job market is creating more opportunities at a faster clip than many economists and employers forecast. USD/INR soared 0.8% to 74.065, with the Indian rupee falling to the lowest level since November low after the country’s central bank kept its benchmark repurchase rate at a record low of 4% but cut its cash reverse ratio and also signalled readiness to act to support growth. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 92.390, just above a two-week low of 92.246, slipping further from a five-month high of 93.439 set at the end of last month. USD/JPY rose 0.1% at 109.78, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was down 0.2% at 0.7649.
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GBP/USD to gather stronger downside momentum below 1.3670 – OCBC “The GBP/USD pair range is narrowing to the 1.3700 to 1.3800 zone, potentially signaling a breakout. We expect it to be on the downside, especially as the USD remains on the ascendant and technicals are still more supportive of a downward move.” “Breach of 1.3670 needed for stronger downside momentum.” EUR/USD to resume its falls as Europe braces for further pain from the virus. The round 1.17 level provided support earlier this week and remains critical support. It is followed by 1.1630, 1.16 and 1.1550, all dating back to the autumn of last year. The dollar remained strong in early European trading Thursday, near multi-month highs amid expectations of strong U.S. economic growth, helped by more fiscal stimulus and an accelerating vaccine rollout. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 93.312, having hit a five-month high of 93.472 earlier. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 110.78, having risen to as high as 110.97, its highest level in a year. The ADP report on Wednesday showed U.S. private payrolls increased by 517,000 jobs last month, a precursor to Friday’s official employment report which is expected to show another increase of around 650,000 payrolls in March.
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The GBP/USD pair is trimming losses to head towards 1.3750 on the back of the comments. GBP/EUR remains at the low end of the key 1.17 level, trading above the 11-month high reached two weeks ago. The EUR/USD pair prolonged its recent bearish trajectory and dropped to a near five-month low, around the 1.1700 level. Relative Strength Index (14) has moved on the verge of breaking into oversold territory and warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for any further depreciating move. The path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside. Hence, any meaningful bounce might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the mentioned confluence support breakpoint, around the 1.1760 zone. Some follow-through selling below the 1.1700 mark now seems to accelerate the fall further towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, around the 1.1620-15 region. This is closely followed by the 1.1600 mark, which if broken should pave the way for the continuation of the ongoing bearish trend. The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, rising to a fresh one-year high against the yen over investor bets that fiscal stimulus and an aggressive vaccine rollout will help the U.S. lead a global economic recovery from COVID-19. The dollar index inched up 0.08% to 93.370. The index held above the 93 mark and was on course for its best month since 2016. The USD/JPY pair was up 0.25% to 110.62, surpassing the 110 mark. The AUD/USD pair edged up 0.17% to 0.7607 and the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.07% to 0.6985. The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.07% to 6.5669 with the yuan offshore market the weakest since November 2020. Rising U.S. bond yields also gave the greenback a boost, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note touching a one-year high of 1.776% on Tuesday.
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GBP/USD has been under mild pressure as US yields boost the dollar. Even if the UK's immunization campaign somewhat slows down, it has reached nearly 50% of the population with at least one dose and the results are clear – cases and hospitalizations are falling. Moreover, London recorded no COVID-19 deaths on Monday – the first such feat in 2021. President Joe Biden is set to unveil his infrastructure spending plan on Wednesday and he may refrain from introducing new taxes in the first phase. That implies higher debt, more bond issuance, and therefore rising returns on Uncle Sam's IOUs. EUR/USD tumbles to new 2021 lows in the 1.1730 region. A test of the 1.1700 neighbourhood appears on the horizon. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 93.052, a new 4-1/2-month high.
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GBP/USD attracted some dip-buying on Monday and shot to multi-day tops in the last hour. The uptick was led by cross-driven strength stemming from the EUR/GBP and the GBP/JPY. The prevalent USD buying should cap the upside, instead prompt fresh selling at higher levels. EUR/USD has continued to struggle to get close to the 1.1800 level, with gains petering out around the 1.1790 area. Continued concerns about lockdown and the Coivd-19 pandemic in the Eurozone mean that it is unsurprising to EUR struggle. ECB’s de Cos: Vital to maintain accommodative monetary policy. Continued concerns about the lockdown and the trajectory of the pandemic in the Eurozone mean that it is unsurprising to see the euro struggle to gain traction against its US dollar counterpart on Monday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly does not see the lockdown restrictions in many states as sufficient to contain the third Covid-19 wave and is reportedly threatening to impose federal law to ensure restrictions are tough enough. Meanwhile, high infection rates in most EU countries mean lockdown eases remains a distant prospect for many countries. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 92.865, just below a four-month high of 92.868 reached overnight. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 109.55, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7620.
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GBP/USD to warn of a more significant correction lower below 1.3779. EUR/USD picks up extra pace and approaches 1.1800. German IFO Business Climate surprised to the upside. The likeliness of another wave of the coronavirus pandemic, further lockdown restrictions and the poor pace of the vaccination campaign in Europe all collaborate in the selling pressure around the shared currency and the deterioration of the sentiment surrounding the pair for the time being. EUR/USD would target 1.2000 (psychological level) en route to 1.2031 (50-say SMA). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.1761 (2021 low Mar.25) seconded by 1.1745 (low Nov.23 2020) and finally 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4). US PCE, Personal Income/Spending, U-Mich Index next on tap. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 92.793, just below a four-month high of 92.868 reached overnight. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 109.25, near its highest since June, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7619.
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GBP/USD struggled to preserve early gains to levels just above the 1.3700 mark. Sustained USD buying turned out to be a key factor that prompted fresh selling. The set-up favours bearish traders amid tensions over COVID-19 vaccine supplies. EUR/USD faces extra selling pressure near the 1.1800 level. The upside momentum in the pair follows the persistent USD strength. German Consumer Confidence improved to -6.2 in April. EUR/USD loses ground for the third session in a row and accelerates the breakdown of the key 200-day SMA (1.1854), all collaborating further with the ongoing bearish note around the single currency. The pair keeps the negative note unchanged, as investors exacerbate the outflows from the shared currency in response to fresh/tighter lockdown restrictions in the Old Continent amidst rising speculations that another wave of the pandemic could be shaping up. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 92.712, just below a four-month high of 92.692 reached overnight. USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 109.07, GBP/USD was down 0.1% at 1.3672, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was flat at 0.7583.
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GBP/USD came under intense selling pressure on Tuesday and dropped to multi-week lows. A strong pickup in the USD demand was seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure. Technical selling below the 1.3800 mark further contributed to the steep intraday decline. EUR/USD has extended its falls below 1.19 amid rising coronavirus concerns in the EU. Germany's Merkel confirmed an extension to the lockdown until April 18. The US dollar firms up amid worsening market mood, as the focus shifts to Powell's testimony. The Dollar Index was up 0.2% at 91.877, just below recent highs. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 108.69 while NZD/USD fell 1.2% to 0.7076, hitting a three-month low, after the New Zealand government announced new measures to try and cool its fast-growing property market by increasing the supply of houses and removing tax incentives for speculators. This dragged the risk-sensitive AUD/USD lower, with this pair 0.8% lower at 0.7685.
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GBP/USD came under intense selling pressure on Tuesday and dropped to multi-week lows. A strong pickup in the USD demand was seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure. Technical selling below the 1.3800 mark further contributed to the steep intraday decline. EUR/USD has extended its falls below 1.19 amid rising coronavirus concerns in the EU. Germany's Merkel confirmed an extension to the lockdown until April 18. The US dollar firms up amid worsening market mood, as the focus shifts to Powell's testimony. The Dollar Index was up 0.2% at 91.877, just below recent highs. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 108.69 while NZD/USD fell 1.2% to 0.7076, hitting a three-month low, after the New Zealand government announced new measures to try and cool its fast-growing property market by increasing the supply of houses and removing tax incentives for speculators. This dragged the risk-sensitive AUD/USD lower, with this pair 0.8% lower at 0.7685.
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GBP/USD: Britain's covid vaccine achievements to allow the pound to extend its recovery. EUR/USD briefly tests lows in the 1.1870 region. The bid tone around the dollar remains well and sound. EMU’s Current Account results, ECB-speak next on tap. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 92.047, helped by its safe haven status. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 108.70, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3853, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD dropped 0.2% to 0.7727. A lot of the market’s focus will be on the Turkish lira, with USD/TRY up 8.4% at 7.8226 following Erdogan's shock weekend decision to dismiss central bank governor Naci Agbal after just four months in the role. The decision came only days after he announced a sharp rise in interest rates to combat rising inflation. Erdogan subsequently appointed Sahap Kavcioglu, a ruling party lawmaker who has argued for lower interest rates, raising fears he will reverse the orthodox moves taken to battle inflation, which could lead to prolonged market volatility. In his short time on the job, Agbal had raised rates by 875 basis points to 19% and regained some policy credibility prompting the lira to rally from the depths.
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GBP/USD managed to regain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week. Retreating US bond yields kept the USD bulls on the defensive and extended some support. Concerns about a shortage in COVID-19 vaccines in the UK might cap gains for the major. EUR/USD bounces off lows in the 1.19 zone on Friday. Lower US yields remove strength from the dollar. German Producer Prices rose 0.7% MoM, 1.9% YoY. The dollar index was down about 0.1% at 91.689 after rising as much as 0.2% in early Asian trading. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pledged this week to press on with aggressive monetary stimulus, saying a near-term spike in inflation would prove temporary amid projections for the strongest U.S economic growth in nearly 40 years. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield climbed to a more-than-one-year peak of 1.754% overnight before easing to 1.6821%. The yen dipped briefly after the Bank of Japan widened its target band for the benchmark yield in a decision that was in line with market expectations. The dollar was last down 0.1% at 108.760 yen after small gains overnight.
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The BoE does not hold a press conference and will likely remain silent on yields – and staying mum means allowing them to rise. Such an increase in yields would allow the pound to recover – even if the dollar storm continues. GBP/USD touched 1.40 key level ahead of BoE, swinging around 1.3960 currently. Euro/dollar has been rejected at 1.1990 – the same cap it hit late last week. That double-top also converges with the 100 Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. Even if the European Medicines Agency gives the green light to resume the usage of Astra's doses, many Europeans are set to refuse to receive them. Overall, the eurozone is set to lag behind in its recovery from the crisis – and that may weigh on the euro. The US dollar quickly unwound all this week’s gains after the FOMC remained consistent in its dovishness. The dollar index fell by 0.46% to 91.44, levels last seen at the end of last week. Interestingly, as the stock market rally has ebbed, the index has climbed back to 91.51 in Asia as US 10-year futures fall by 0.20%, suggesting the mechanical linkage remains as strong as ever.
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GBP/USD gained traction on Wednesday and built on the overnight bounce from one-week lows. The uptick was solely led by some cross-driven strength stemming from a fall in the EUR/GBP. The debacle around AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccines continues as the old continent is struggling to get jabs into its citizens' arms and even if the crisis is resolved shortly, many European would still refuse this specific inoculation – or perhaps others. The European Medicines Agency is set to announce its verdict on the safety of AZ's immunization on Thursday after cases of blood clots seemed to be correlated with the jabs. Several European leaders hinted that vaccination will likely return. However, a message saying that the benefits of the injections outweigh the risk could do little to alleviate concerns. Support awaits at 1.1870, which was a stepping stone on the way up last week, and that is followed by the 2021 trough of 1.1836. Above 1.1910, the next cap awaits at 1.1950, which held EUR/USD down on Tuesday. GBP/EUR is trading around the key level 1.17 on the back of euro-weakness, the highest level since 24 Feb 2020. A more than one-year high. The upside seems limited ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and BoE meeting on Thursday. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 91.925, having risen for three straight sessions on support mainly from elevated U.S. bond yields. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 109.15, near the nine-month high hit earlier this week, and ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting ending Friday. AUD/USD dropped 0.1% to 0.7736.
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GBP/USD witnessed some follow-through selling for the third straight session on Tuesday. Vaccine fears weighed on investors’ sentiment and benefitted the safe-haven greenback. Softer US bond yields any strong gains for the USD and helped limit losses for the major. Investors look forward to US Retail Sales for some impetus ahead of the FOMC and BoE. Market participants are likely to take cues from Tuesday's release of the US monthly Retail Sales data. Apart from this, the US bond yields might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. EUR/USD keeps the trade above the 1.19 level on Tuesday. The German Economic Sentiment improved to 76.6 in March. US Retail Sales, Industrial Production next in the calendar. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 91.927. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 109.22, after rising to a nine-month high of 109.36 on Monday and ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting starting Thursday. AUD/USD dropped 0.3% to 0.7736.
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GBP/USD struggled for a firm direction and remained confined in a range on Monday. Failures near 1.4000 favour bearish traders; the emergence of dip-buying warrants caution. Neutral oscillators further make it prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction. The GBP/USD pair sunk to take another look at the 1.3850 uptrend after weak data on Friday. If the cable holds the uptrend, a retest of the last week high at 1.4018 seems likely – Commerzbank. EUR/USD remains on track to end the first day of the week lower. ECB ramped up weekly asset purchases to €19.303 billion. US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in daily range below 92.00.
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GBP/USD witnessed a turnaround from the 1.4000 mark amid resurgent USD demand. Rallying US bond yields underpinned the USD and exerted some pressure on the major. Mostly softer UK macro data weighed on the sterling and contributed to the selling bias. EUR/USD comes down and tests the 1.19 area on Friday. A drops and test of recent lows near 1.830 is not ruled out. The dollar rose on Friday, recovering its losses from the day before, as a spike in Treasury yields early in the European session triggered a risk-off move in global currency markets, with riskier currencies taking a hit. Market participants have grown wary in recent weeks that there could be a spike in inflation caused by massive fiscal stimulus and pent-up consumer demand when economies reopen from their coronavirus lockdowns. Although soft U.S. CPI data on Wednesday went some way to calm those fears, U.S. Treasuries sold off again on Friday, with the 10-year yield rising above 1.6%. The dollar was up 0.4% at 91.835. But it was still below the high of 92.506 it reached on Tuesday, which was its strongest since November 2020. The Australian dollar - which is seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite - fell by 0.5% to 0.77457 versus the U.S. dollar. The New Zealand dollar was down around 0.6% against the U.S. dollar. The Norwegian crown lost out to both euro and dollar.
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The GBP/USD pair looks to be stabilizing above its 55-day moving average at 1.3761 and weakness stays seen as corrective prior to the core bull trend resuming towards the recent reaction high at 1.4017, Credit Suisse appraises. EUR/USD is up for the third session in a row on Thursday and reclaims the 1.1970 region, or multi-day highs, on the back of the moderate leg lower in the greenback. The dollar index fell to its lowest in a week early in Thursday's European session and there was a mild "risk on" tone in currency markets, as attention turned to the European Central Bank's policy meeting. The dollar was down around 0.2% at 91.606 against a basket of currencies, having dropped from the three month high of 92.506 it reached on Tuesday.
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The GBP/USD pair quickly recovered around 25 pips from daily lows and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, around the 1.3870-75 region during the early European session. The pair witnessed some selling during the early part of the trading action on Wednesday and retreated further from three-day tops, around the 1.3925 region touched in the previous session. The downtick was exclusively sponsored by the emergence of some fresh buying around the US dollar, though lacked any strong follow-through selling. Following the overnight pullback, the USD was back in demand and inched back closer to multi-month tops amid signs of stability in the US Treasury bond yields. EUR/USD extends losses towards 1.1850 heading into early European trading. Resurgent US dollar demand amid stabilizing Treasury yields and risk-off mood weigh on the spot. Focus shifts to the US CPI and stimulus vote. GBP/EUR is trading at 1.1660 after the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey has talked of permanent changes to the economy. The dollar was pushed higher by the stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields following their drop from one-year highs. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 92.155, after falling back Tuesday from a 3 1/2-month high of 92.506. USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 108.83, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.7690. USD/CNY inched up to 6.5073 after the release of the Chinese CPI figures.
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GBP/USD - 1.3920 is a tough nut to crack for the bulls. GBP/USD briefly recaptures 1.3900 but the further upside appears limited. Powerful resistance awaits at 1.3920 while RSI stays bullish. The cable rebounds as the US dollar drops along with Treasury yields. Euro area GDP contracted by 4.9% in 2020. EUR/USD clings to strong daily gains above 1.1900. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair's inability to capitalize on the move and failure near the 1.3900 mark favours bearish traders. Subsequent weakness below mid-1.3800s will add credence to the negative outlook and pave the way for an extension of the recent corrective slide. The dollar edged lower in early European trading Tuesday, but remained near multi-month highs on the back of rising Treasury yields and the expectation of a robust U.S. economic recovery. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 92.130, after earlier climbing to 92.528, its highest level since late November.
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GBP/USD resists dollar strength but not for too long. The Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak at a webinar hosted by the Resolution Foundation at 1000 GMT on Monday, with the speech titled ‘The economic outlook.” GBPUSD holding below 1.3820 today is a medium-term sell signal targeting1.3780/70 then 1.3715/05. Gains are likely to be limited in what could be a developing bear trend. Minor resistance at 1.3890/1.3900. Unlikely but a break higher meets strong resistance at1.3950/60. EUR/USD accelerates the downside to the 1.1870 region. Next on the downside comes in the key 200-day SMA. The Sentix Index improved to 1.9 in March. The dollar gained in early European trading Monday, trading around three-month highs, after the passage of the massive Covid-19 relief bill through the Senate added to a strong U.S. labour market report in fostering expectations of a strong recovery this year. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 92.168, near its three-month high of 92.201 set on Friday. USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 108.45, just off a nine-month high, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7682.
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GBP/USD hangs near weekly lows, just above mid-1.3800s. GBP/USD witnessed some follow-through selling on Friday amid a broad-based USD strength. The downside seems limited as the focus shifts to the release of the US monthly jobs report. EUR/USD looks weaker and clinches 2021 lows near 1.1920. EUR/USD loses further ground and drop to the 1.1920 area. German Factory Orders expanded 1.4% MoM in January. US Nonfarm Payrolls will be the salient event later on Friday. EUR appreciation could trigger ECB verbal intervention, always amidst the current (and future) context of subdued inflation. Potential political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. Huge long positions in the speculative community. EUR/USD is retreating 0.36% at 1.1921 and faces the next support at 1.1887 (61.8% Fibo of the November-January rally) followed by 1.1808 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1762 (78.6% Fibo of the November-January rally). On the flip side, a break above 1.2027 (100-day SMA) would target 1.2129 (50-say SMA) en route to 1.2243 (monthly high Feb.25). Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 91.760, a three-month high. USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 108.25, climbing to an eight-month high earlier in the session, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7710.
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GBP/USD trades with modest losses below mid-1.3900s. Sustained USD buying prompted some selling around GBP/USD on Thursday. The downside seems limited ahead of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The lack of any meaningful buying interest and repeated failed attempts to move back above the key 1.4000 psychological mark suggests that the positive news is fully priced in. Hence, any attempted move up runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. EUR/USD is likely to remain contained within an effective 1.1950-1.2350 range. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 91.002, adding to Wednesday’s gain of around 0.3%. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 107.13, after hitting a seven month high the previous session. However, commodity currencies were still well-bid: the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7812, continuing to show strength after Wednesday’s strong GDP data. The kiwi and Canadian dollar also rose.
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UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak will be in the global stoplight as he will deliver his second annual budget for the British economy. While the Chancellor of the Exchequer has already signalled readiness to do “whatever it takes”, traders would seek clues as to how the present freebies will be curtailed in the future to determine immediate GBP/USD moves. GBP could edge below last week’s low at 1.3890. In view of the lacklustre momentum, any further decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 1.3850. The rebound has scope to extend but any further advance is likely limited to a test of 1.3995. The next resistance at 1.4035 is unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 1.3925 followed by 1.3890. EUR/USD has been recovering amid temporary market calm. But, expected strong US figures, stimulus progress and America's vaccine ramp-up are set to boost the greenback, Economists expect the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index to print 58.7 points in February – prolonged growth in America's largest sector. The Manufacturing PMI smashed estimates earlier in the week with 60.8. ADP's employment figures are forecast to show an increase of 177,000 private-sector jobs. While the old continent is struggling to get people to take the AstraZeneca jab, the US is ramping up the rollout and also production. Merck agreed to produce Johnson and Johnson's single-shot inoculations and President Joe Biden stated that every American could be offered a vaccine by the end of May. Euro/dollar continues suffering from downside momentum on the 4-hour chart and trades below the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages – which are all converging around the 1.2110 level. The dollar index slipped to 90.971 after dropping back from a nearly one-month high overnight.
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GBP/USD remains depressed below 1.3900 mark, hangs near 1-1/2-week lows. The USD buying interest picked up pace during the early European session and dragged the GBP/USD pair to one-and-half-week lows, around the 1.3865 region in the last hour. A sustained break below the 1.3900 mark might have shifted the bias in favour of bearish traders. EUR/USD sheds ground for the third session in a row and breach the key psychological support at 1.20 the figure on turnaround Tuesday. As the reflation/vaccine trade appears to lose ground as a driver for further upside in the risk complex, strong prospects of US growth plus rising perception by investors of a pick-up in inflation in the medium term have lent extra oxygen to the buck and propelled DXY to new multi-week peaks beyond 91.00 the figure. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 106.84. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.7750, after the Reserve Bank of Australia re-committed to keeping interest rates at historic lows. NZD/USD dropped 0.5% to 0.7224, while USD/CAD rose 0.3% to 1.2684.
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GBP/USD faced rejection near the 1.4000 mark and trimmed a part of its intraday gains. An optimistic UK economic outlook extended some support and helped limit the downside. An upward revision of the UK Manufacturing PMI for February, which was finalized at 55.1 as against 54.9 estimated, extended some support to the GBP/USD pair. EUR/USD continues its march south after being rejected from recent peaks in the 1.2240 region. The underlying bullish sentiment in the euro remains under pressure for the time being amidst investors’ adjustment to potential US inflation and the subsequent increase in yields and the demand for the dollar. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 90.752. USD/JPY was largely flat at 106.56, near the six-month high of 106.69 touched Friday despite Japan's factory activity expanding at the fastest pace in over two years in February. AUD/USD rose 0.8% to 0.7770, following a 2.1% plunge on Friday, as the Reserve Bank of Australia said it would buy twice the normal volume of long-term bonds at this week's regular operation. The RBA's policy-making committee meets on Tuesday. NZD/USD climbed 0.9% to 0.7290, recovering some of Friday's 1.9% slide, while USD/CAD fell 0.5% to 1.2680.
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GBP/USD remained under some selling pressure for the second straight session on Friday. The intraday downtrend managed to find some support near the 1.3900 confluence level. Mixed technical indicators warrant some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. EUR/USD comes under pressure and returns to 1.2130.The dollar bounces off lows on the back of higher yields.US PCE takes centre stage later in the NA session. EUR/USD reverses two consecutive daily builds, including fresh multi-week highs around 1.2240 recorded on Thursday, and returns to the 1.2150 region on Friday. The sharp and sudden pick up in yields of the US 10-year benchmark prompted investors to favour the greenback vs. extending the rally in the risk complex, at least in the very near-term. Dollar Index was up 0.4% at 90.468, also higher for the week and only 0.2% lower this month.
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GBP/USD has bounced off the lows as Powell's dovish message weighs on the dollar. An attack on 1.42 looks imminent, Markets seemed to have been waiting for a further reassuring from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, before making another convincing move higher. The upbeat mood is adverse for the dollar, despite higher bond yields. The British pound remained well supported by the impressive speed of the coronavirus immunization campaign and the UK government's plan to ease the current lockdown measures. In fact, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already unveiled a new four-step plan to end restrictions by 21 June. The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart has dropped below 70, exiting overbought conditions and opening the door to further gains. Momentum remains to the upside and the cable continues trading above the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. EUR/USD clears the 1.2200 hurdle and advances to multi-week highs on the back of the now increasing selling pressure surrounding the greenback. The dollar index fell to its lowest since early January on Thursday and dropped to three-year lows against the Australian and Canadian dollars, after dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve boosted the reflation trade in currency markets.
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GBP/USD consolidates the spike to 1.4234. However, the cautious tone seen around the major could be mainly attributed to the overbought conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), given the daily timeframe. The bulls are now contemplating the next move, with the 1.4300 level still on sight. Although a correction could be in the offing before the cable takes a flight once again northwards. To the downside, the bears have to beat the daily lows of 1.4106, in order to extend the corrective downside. EUR/USD has been lagging behind its peers, partially due to prospects of extended lockdown measures in Germany and AstraZeneca's announcement of yet another cut in AstraZeneca's delivery of vaccines to the old continent. The firm slashed by half its provisions for the second quarter, from 180 to 90 million doses. The dollar index edged down 0.10% to 90.032, sliding to a three-year low against the GBP and recording losses against commodities currencies, as increased bets that the global economic recovery from COVID-19 will whet investors’ risk appetite. The USD/JPY pair edged up 0.15% to 105.39. The AUD/USD pair was up 0.35% to 0.7937. The AUD, a usual beneficiary of rising metal and energy prices, climbed to near a three-year high. The NZD/USD pair was up 0.40% to 0.7369. The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.09% to 6.4585. The NZD was the focus of attention as the Asian session opened. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said that it would keep its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% earlier in the day, in line with expectations.
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Having tested the 1.4100 level in the last hour, GBP/USD is consolidating the latest leg higher around 1.4080, up 0.11% on the day. EUR/USD is gaining 0.09% at 1.2164 and a breakout of 1.2179 (weekly high Feb.23) would target 1.2189 (weekly high Jan.22) en route to 1.2349 (2021 high Jan.6). On the downside, the next support at 1.2023 (weekly low Feb.17) followed by 1.2004 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1952 (2021 low Feb.5). The dollar index was up 0.01% at 90.002. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2174, USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 105.14, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7917, climbing to the highest level in almost three years as commodity prices have soared. These gains have triggered worries of a global rise in inflation, and puts the focus on Fed chief Jerome Powell, who testifies before Congress later in the day. He is expected to provide assurance that the Fed will not respond to higher inflation with an immediate rate hike, which could potentially cause the dollar to drop further. The Fed finds the right words on these occasions – most certainly downplaying the forthcoming rise in inflation into 2Q – such that the bond market decline can probably stay orderly.
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GBP/USD is back on the bids in the European session, once again approaching the 1.4050 level to retest the 35-month highs. Boris Johnson’s office announced that the four conditions to ease the covid-induced lockdown are met and therefore, the government can proceed with the first step of reopening the economy from March 8. Meanwhile, PM Johnson said that “we will be setting out a roadmap to bring us out of lockdown cautiously,” with the main priority of re-opening the schools. The upper line of an ascending trend channel from September 10, 2020, currently around 1.4035, guards short-term GBP/USD upside. EUR/USD meets selling pressure and drops below 1.2100. German IFO Business Climate improved further in February. ECB’s Christine Lagarde will speak later in the session. U.S. dollar index was up 0.28% at 90.543. The yen lost 0.33% at 105.78 while the Aussie rose as much as 0.5% to an almost three-year high of $0.7908 before letting the dollar come back to 0.7864. The kiwi hit $0.7338, also its best since early 2018, helped by S&P's upgrade of New Zealand's sovereign credit ratings by a notch, but also saw the greenback gradually pare most losses.
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UK Manufacturing PMI beats estimates with 54.9 in Feb. Services PMI in the UK jumps to 49.7 in Feb, a big beat. GBP/USD sees fresh demand and renews multi-month tops above 1.40. EUR/USD clinches fresh tops in the 1.2140 region. Flash German, EMU Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside. Flash PMIs, housing data, Fed speak next on tap in the NA session. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 90.483, after a 0.4% decline overnight cut short a two-day winning streak. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.62, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.4% to 0.7793. The dollar had posted gains over the last couple of days as U.S. Treasury yields had risen with the release of strong retail sales data, but the unexpected rise in the number of jobless claims came as a reminder of how much slack the pandemic has left in the labour market. A total of 861,000 claims were filed during the previous week, hitting a four-week high, compared with the 765,000 claims expected and the 848,000 claims filed during the previous week. The Federal Reserve had already warned, in the minutes from its January policy meeting, that the labour market would take time to return to trend and thus its easy monetary policy would stay in place for a considerable period. And Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made it clear that $1.9 trillion in pandemic-relief spending is still needed, defending the need for President Joe Biden’s plan despite the recent strength in retail sales.
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GBP/USD caught some aggressive bids during the early European session. The momentum pushed the pair back above the 1.3900 round-figure mark. President Joe Biden may struggle to pass his proposed $1.9 trillion covid relief program and that means less debt issuance. In turn, Treasury yields may drop off their highs, and make the dollar less attractive. The Federal Reserve's sanguine approach to inflation may take some of the air out of the rally. The single currency regains the smile following recent losses and motivates EUR/USD to reclaim the 1.2070 region on Thursday. The corrective downside in the greenback follows a drop from recent yearly highs of yields of the US 10-year reference, which managed to climb to as high as the 1.33% zone on Wednesday and drop to the current 1.28% neighbourhood afterwards. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 90.903. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.81, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7758. The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January policy meeting on Wednesday, and these reinforced its plans to let the economy overheat while maintaining an ultra-accommodative monetary policy.
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Cable witnessed some selling during the first half of the trading action on Wednesday and retreated further 34-month tops, around mid-1.3900s touched in the previous session. The downtick was sponsored by some follow-through US dollar buying interest, which remained well supported by the recent runaway rally in the US Treasury bond yields. The market has been pricing in the prospects for the passage of the US President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package. The reflation trade, in turn, pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to the highest level since February 2020, around 1.30% and was seen as a key factor that underpinned the greenback demand. That said, the downside remains limited amid optimism that the impressive pace of vaccinations in the UK would allow the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to lift COVID-19 restrictions and get the economy moving. EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.2100 ahead of the European open, as the US dollar clings to the recent gains amid a rally in the US Treasury yields. The dollar index was up 0.3% at 90.757, bouncing from the three-week low of 90.117 hit on Tuesday. USD/JPY was flat at 106.06, after earlier hitting a five-month high, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7746.
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GBP/USD is standing out by advancing above 1.39 as the UK reported the lowest number of COVID-19 infections since October and the vaccination campaign continues at a rapid pace. The U.S. dollar was mired at a three-week low on Tuesday as growing optimism about the outlook of the global economy in the coming months sent investors scurrying to purchase riskier currencies including the euro, crown and the British pound. The euro shows little reaction to the upbeat Eurozone growth figures, as EUR/USD flirts with three-week highs of 1.2157. The spot is higher by 0.25% on the day. The dollar index steadied at 90.229, its lowest level since Jan. 27. It has fallen nearly 1.5% over the past eight trading sessions. The Chinese yuan slipped 0.1% to 6.4132 per dollar after the Financial Times reported Beijing was exploring curbs on rare earth mineral exports in order to hurt the U.S. firms that use them.
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GBP/USD has paused its two-day rally to 34-month highs above 1.3900, as the bulls gather more energy to start afresh northwards. The UK vaccine rollout continues to outperform its peers and along with some positive results in the domestic docket and the likeliness that the BoE will not implement negative rates in the short-term horizon sustained the firm demand for the quid and opened the door for a move to the key 1.40 level in GBP/USD in the not-so-distant future. EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.2130. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 90.335, not far removed from last week’s low of 90.249, a level not seen since Jan. 27. AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.7779, while the Chinese yuan reached its strongest level since June 2018 at 6.4009 per dollar in the offshore market. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 105.12, with the safe haven yen also suffering despite Japan reporting its gross domestic product grew an annualized 12.7% from the prior quarter in the three months through December, ahead of the 10.1% expansion expected.
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GBP/USD near multi-day lows, below 1.3800 mark. Break below the 23.6% Fibonacci. might have paved the way for further weakness. Mixed technical indicators warrant caution before placing fresh bearish bets. Oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing positive traction – are yet to confirm the bearish bias. Hence, any subsequent fall is likely to find decent support near the 1.3760-55 resistance breakpoint, which should act as a key pivotal point and help determine the GBP/USD pair's near-term trajectory. EUR/USD comes under some pressure near 1.2100. Immediately to the upside comes in a Fibonacci level at 1.2173.The dollar index was up 0.1% at 90.487, but still on track to fall 0.6% this week. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 104.88, while AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7746. The weekly initial jobless claims data came in weaker-than-expected on Thursday, adding to last week’s nonfarm payrolls number that suggested that the recovery in the jobs market in the U.S. would be a prolonged affair.
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GBP/USD witnessed some profit-taking and edged lower during the early European session. The supportive fundamental backdrop should help limit any meaningful slide for the major. Weakness below the 1.3800 mark might still be seen as an opportunity for bullish traders. GBP/USD maintains its break to a new high for the year to reassert the core uptrend and reinforce the existing long-term base above 1.3514. Economists at Credit Suisse see resistance next at 1.3890/95, ahead of 1.3997/1.4000 and eventually the key 2018 highs and 50% retracement of the 2014/2020 bear trend at 1.4302/77. EUR/USD extends the recent consolidation above 1.2100. The dollar remains weak and supports gains in the pair. US Initial Claims, Fed’s Monetary Policy Report next in the docket. The dollar index was up less than 0.1% at 90.406, after earlier falling as low as 90.249, a two-week low, on Wednesday. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 104.66, while AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.7741.
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The GBP/USD pair has moved north of 1.3800. The breach of the 1.3800 resistance implies that the GBPU/SD may extend its run all the way to 1.4000, although the immediate next target is at 1.3880. Strong vaccination drive, and being past the peak of the most recent pandemic surge will be supportive of the cable pair. The risk sentiment remains buoyed by the US stimulus hopes, upbeat earnings reports and ample liquidity in the markets, which is expected to ramp up the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic induced downturn. The further upside in the cable also remains at the mercy of the US CPI report, the BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech and the appearance by the Fed Chief Jerome Powell, all of which are lined up later in the NA session. The EUR/USD pair has moved back above 1.21. The broad USD is now likely to be under further pressure amid risk-on. Market may now shift to focus on EUR-positives like the narrowing BTP-Bund spread, and target 1.2150 for the EUR/USD. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 90.343, after earlier falling as low as 90.332 for the first time this month. USD/JPY traded down 0.1% at 104.52, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7749.
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The GBP/USD pair has been hitting new multi-year highs, driven by dollar weakness. The cable could surge above 1.38 as the UK continue pushing immunization with full force. The pound is well-positioned to take advantage of the dollar's descent, thanks to Britain's vaccination drive. The UK has already jabbed around 18% of its population and is on course to hit the government's goal of reaching around 15 million people by February 15. Immediate resistance is at 1.3798, the new 2021 peak. It is followed by 1.3830, 1.39 and 140 – all dating back to 2018. Support is at 1.3760, a previous 2021 peak, followed by 1.3680 and 1.3565, which both served as cushions in recent days. The euro has benefitted from the broad-based US dollar sell-off which has helped to lift EUR/USD back towards the 1.2100-level after hitting an intra-day low at the end of last week of 1.1952. It provides some relief for the euro after a bad start to the year, economists at MUFG Bank report. The dollar index was down 0.3% at 90.638, continuing the weakness seen after Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs data brought an end to a two-week run that had lifted it to a more than two-month high of 91.6. USD/JPY traded down 0.4% at 104.77.
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GBP/USD has been retreating amid hopes for a large US stimulus package but Britain's virus advantage may send sterling higher. While the case for robust stimulus remains dollar positive, it is unlikely to pass immediately, allowing for the dollar to take a breather. The UK's vaccination drive is gaining pace, with over 17% of the population already having received one short, nearly double America's 9.1%. Some resistance awaits at the daily high of 1.3740, closely followed by the 2021 peak of 1.3752. Further above, 1.3810 and 1.40 are eyed. Support is seen at 1.3680, where the 50 SMA hits the price. The next cushion is 1.3615, which was a low point last week. The next level to watch is 1.3565, the February trough. EUR/USD seems to have met decent contention in the YTD lows around 1.1950 so far. In spite of the recent correction lower, the outlook for the pair remains constructive in the longer run and is always supported by prospects of a strong recovery in the region (and abroad), which is in turn underpinned by extra fiscal stimulus by the Fed and the ECB along with hopes of an acceleration in the vaccine rollout. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 91.075, after falling 0.6% on Friday. USD/JPY up 0.1% at 105.50, while AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7676.
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The GBP/USD pair, which was last seen trading around the 1.3700 mark amid a modest USD pullback, whose upside is likely to remain capped as investors are likely to refrain from placing any aggressive bets heading into the key data risk, due later during the early North American session on Friday. The downtrend in EUR/USD appears to have met some decent contention in the 1.1950 region so far this week. EUR/USD seems to have met decent contention in the 1.1950 region so far this week, or new 2021 lows. Solid results from US fundamentals plus the successful vaccine rollout in the US (when compared with Europe) and higher US yields have been sustaining the moderate upside bias in the dollar, lifting DXY to new yearly highs well above 91.00 the figure. USD/JPY fell 0.1% at 105.51, while AUD/USD rose 0.1% at 0.7601.
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GBP/USD pair dropped to two-and-half-week lows, further below the 1.3600 mark and was pressured by sustained US dollar buying interest. A surprise rate cut – though seems unlikely – or hints of lowering rates in future could exert some heavy downward pressure on the sterling. Conversely, an upbeat economic assessment – amid the speedy rollout of COVID-19 vaccine in the UK – could provide a modest lift to the pound. The EUR/USD pair extended its daily slide despite the upbeat data and was last seen losing 0.42% on a daily basis at 1.1984. ECB provided updates on economic and monetary developments - “The unemployment rate in the euro area declined further in November 2020, helped by an increase in the number of workers covered by job retention schemes.” “Short-term labor market indicators have continued to improve somewhat, but are still signaling contractionary developments.“ The dollar index was up 0.2% at 91.320, near its highest level since early December. USD/JPY rose 0.2% at 105.22 while AUD/USD rose 0.2% at 0.7629.
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GBP/USD bulls have managed to defend the critical 21-daily moving average (DMA), now at 1.3648, so far this Wednesday. The price breached the latter on Tuesday but recaptured it towards the closing. GBP buyers remain hopeful so long as the price holds above the 21-DMA. The major could likely retest Tuesday’s high at 1.3710. GBP/EUR was still showing strength halfway through the session opening, despite the latest Q4 GDP figures from the Eurozone highlighting improvement. The pair is up 0.33% on Tuesday at 1.1364 and data this week could see the pound at 1.1400 if it can stay in a bullish posture. EUR/USD has been failing to recover as Europe's vaccination campaign lags. The euro is set to extend falls after the breakdown after breaking below the triple-bottom of 1.2050. Investors are upgrading their outlooks in response to prospects of additional spending, buying stocks and selling stocks – and the resulting increase in Treasury yields makes the dollar more attractive. The relative growth dynamics between Europe, which is weak, and the U.S., which is better, are favouring the USD at the moment, but it remains to be seen if this can be a longer-lasting theme. Analysts are predicting EUR/USD to go below 1.20. The dollar index inched up 0.02% to 91.043 and rose to a two-month high during the previous session. The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.04% to 105.02, after the USD rose to 105.17 overnight for the first time since Nov. 12. The AUD/USD pair edged up 0.11% to 0.7614 and the NZD/USD pair was up 0.38% to 0.7218. The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.07% to 6.4594, after disappointing data was released in China earlier in the day.
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GBP/USD eases from intraday top while also snapping two-day downtrend. South African virus strain cases without travel history triggered mass testing blitz in Britain, EU tightens rules for foreign visitors. UK PM Johnson stays hopeful for school open, Chancellor Sunak steps back from tax hikes. US President Joe Biden discusses stimulus, market frenzy eases. Renewed USD selling bias assisted GBP/USD to regain positive traction on Tuesday. The prevalent upbeat market mood was seen weighing on the safe-haven greenback. The upside seems limited as the focus remains on the BoE policy meeting on Thursday. EUR/USD has been failing to take advantage of the upbeat market mood and advance. The critical 1.2050 triple-bottom looks vulnerable after the dead-cat bounce as concerns about eurozone growth, vaccine supplies or US stimulus may spark a sell-off. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 90.965, after pushing as high as 91.063 overnight for the first time since Dec. 10. USD/JPY rose 0.1% at 105.00 while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% at 0.7611.
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The GBP/USD pair regained positive traction on the first day of a new trading week and retested multi-year tops, around the 1.3755-60 region during the early European session. Diminishing odds for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut was seen as a key factor that benefitted the GBP while the UK Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 54.1 for January and remained supportive. The single currency starts the week on the defensive vs. the greenback following two consecutive sessions with gains as the EUR/USD pair extends the rangebound trading above 1.2100.The dollar edged higher in early European trading Monday, with traders starting a fresh week in a cautious vein given last week’s turmoil in the equity markets. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 90.575. USD/JPY rose 0.1% at 104.72 while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.2% at 0.7659.
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GBP/USD meets fresh supply as US dollar recovers further ground, knock-off further towards the 1.3650 level. European vaccine row and Wall Street meme frenzy spook investors. EUR/USD showed a little reaction to the encouraging German growth numbers, as the sentiment remains tepid amid the recent Wall Street frenzy. The major was last seen trading at 1.2117, modestly flat on the day. Focus shifts to the US macro news and sentiment around US stocks. The dollar pushed higher in early European trading Friday, with the safe haven in demand as risk sentiment takes a hit on the back of turmoil in equity markets. The dollar index was up 0.3% at 90.690, adding on to Wednesday’s 0.6% gain. USD/JPY rose 0.3% at 104.50, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD dropped 0.3% at 0.7656.
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GBP/USD is consolidating the downside below 1.3700 following the FOMC decision-led decline to near the 1.3650 region. EUR/GBP gained some traction on Thursday and recovered further from multi-month lows. The imposition of fresh COVID restrictions in the UK continued weighing on the British pound. ECB jawboning on the euro strength might keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the cross. EUR/USD came under downside pressure yesterday. It has eroded the 55 day ma and attention has dropped to 1.2014 the September high and the 1.2003 2020-2021 uptrend, which we suspect will hold. The Fed maintained the status-quo and noted that the economic recovery hinges on the COVID situation and vaccine progress. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell refrained from commenting on tapering while markets solid-off risk and bid up the safe-haven US dollar. The main equity indices on Wall Street saw their biggest one-day percentage drops in three months during the previous session, as hedge funds liquidated positions to raise liquidity after suffering losses on short positions in other stocks, amid highly speculative retail buying. This helped boost safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency.
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GBP/USD seesaws around 1.3730 after refreshing the 32-month high during early Wednesday. The quote initially cheered the market’s optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine and the US dollar weakness before allowing the bulls to catch a breather amid virus woes in the UK and wait for the key Federal Reserve meeting. GBP/USD's immediate technical bias remains bullish, as the higher lows and higher highs setup on the daily chart is still intact. The GBP/EUR has tested the 1.13 level several times recently, whilst EUR/USD is trying hard to extend Tuesday’s bounce above 1.2150 but in vain, as the bulls remain nervous in the run-up to the Fed showdown. The Fed is likely to strike a dovish tone, which could further weigh down on the greenback. The broader market risk sentiment and the US stimulus headlines might influence the USD price dynamics. In the meantime, the release of US Durable Goods Orders will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North American session. The dollar index was up 0.05% at 90.188, against Japanese Yen, the dollar was up 0.12%, trading around 103.7, recovering from a dip to 103.58. The Fed may is set to comment on recent economic weakness, as well as prospects for a better second-half of the year. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, may be asked about froth in stock markets.
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The GBP/USD pair remained depressed below mid-1.3600s, or near multi-day lows and had a rather muted reaction to upbeat UK employment details. The number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 7K in December, against expectations +35K and 38.1K seen previously. The downbeat market mood benefitted the safe-haven USD and exerted pressure on GBP/USD. EUR/USD sees a V-shaped reversal just above the 1.2100 level. Risk tone recovery alongside the European equities, downs the USD. US CB Consumer Confidence data and stimulus updates in focus. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 90.547. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 103.78, GBP/USD fell 0.4% to 1.3620, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was down 0.4% at 0.7675.
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GBP/USD surrenders intraday gains, flirts with session lows near 1.3670 area. GBP/USD struggled to preserve early gains and retreated around 50 pips from tops. Concerns about the economic impact of COVID-19 held bulls from placing fresh bets. A modest pickup in the USD demand exerted some additional pressure on the major. The recent close above 1.3712 on a daily chart closing basis pushes the 1.3836 February 2016 low to the fore. Longer term the 2018 peak at 1.4377 is being targeted. Currently while dips hold over 1.3520, the market is remains bid. Below 1.3520 would alleviate immediate upside pressure for losses to the 1.3350 late December low, there is scope for the 1.3251 7 month uptrend. Currently, the Elliott wave count is implying a slide to 1.3400/1.3530. EUR/USD last week sold off to and bounced off the 55-day ma at 1.2086. It is possible that this was an ‘a -b-c’ correction lower that has completed and we will have to neutralise, as it is possible that the markets next move will be on the topside. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 90.085, having fallen 0.7% in the last week. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 103.71, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.3% at 0.7738.
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UK Manufacturing PMI misses estimates with 52.9 in Jan. Services PMI in the UK contracts to 38.8 in Jan, a big miss. GBP/USD sees fresh supply and hits daily lows near 1.3660. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI arrives at 54.7 in Jan vs. 54.6 expected. Bloc’s Services PMI stands at 45.0 in Jan vs. 45.0 expected. The shared currency extends gains fuelled by the German PMI readings, with EUR/USD fast approaching the 1.2200 level. The spot trades at 1.2187, up 0.18% on the day. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 90.243, but has dropped 0.6% this week. Some resistance awaits at 1.3680, which capped the pair in early January. It is followed by 1.3745, the previous 2021 peak. Support is at 1.3620, which was a stepping stone on the way up, followed by 1.3525, a cushion seen last week. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 103.66 while AUD/USD was down 0.5% at 0.7728.
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GBP/USD caught aggressive fresh bids for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The upbeat market mood undermined the safe-haven USD and remained supportive. Sustained move beyond the 1.3700-1.3710 area has set the stage for additional gains. EUR/USD regains upside traction above the 1.2100 mark. Risk appetite continues to favour the single currency. ECB’s interest rate decision due later in the session. EUR/USD reverses Wednesday’s pullback and improves above the 1.2100 barrier on the back of the renewed selling pressure hurting the greenback. The reflation trade is back to the markets and sustain the fresh improvement in the risk complex, particularly following Biden’s inauguration and his plans to boost fiscal spending by around $1.9 trillion. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.2% at 90.297, declining for a third day since touching a near one-month high on Monday. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 103.41, after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged earlier Thursday while revising up its economic forecast for next fiscal year. Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday, and traders are seeing the change in administration as increasing the chances of increased stimulus given the incoming president has already proposed a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill. The dollar started the year on a firmer footing as U.S. Treasury yields rose on the back of expected greater borrowing to fund additional stimulus.
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The sentiment around the pound remains buoyed by the upbeat UK CPI figures, with GBP/USD holding the higher ground near 1.3670 levels. The major adds 0.28% on a daily basis. The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate came in at +0.6% in December when compared to +0.3% booked in November while beating expectations of a +0.5% print. EUR/USD has been advancing after US Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen made the case for more stimulus. President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated later in the day and his first actions in office are set to boost bulls, outweighing ECB worries. The European Central Bank is set to leave rates unchanged but may warn about the higher exchange rate of the euro. Without cutting rates, any attempt by the ECB to talk down the common currency will likely be futile. However, Bloomberg reported that the ECB could launch a strategy of controlling yield spreads. While lowering returns on European debt may weigh on the euro, it would lower borrowing costs for some governments, a positive development. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.2% at 90.278. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 103.75, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s latest rate-setting meeting on Thursday. AUD/USD was up 0.6% at 0.7736.
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GBP/USD stays mildly positive while picking up bids above 1.3600, remaining poised for additional gains amid favourable technicals. 200-HMA and bullish crossover keep the buyers hopeful. 100-HMA at 1.3625 is on sight amid bullish RSI. Brexit deal reaches the House of Commons for revoting, UK-China tussle intensify. UK NHS Chairwoman fears the pandemic will throw unpredicted problems. The incoming US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s speech, Brexit chatters and virus updates will be the key amid light calendar. EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.2110, adding 0.30% on the day. The spot hit a daily high of 1.2119 and a day’s low at 1.2074. Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 90.547, after edging as high as 90.94 overnight for the first time since Dec. 21, although trading was subdued with U.S. markets on holiday. USD/JPY was up 0.4% at 104.06 while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.4% at 0.7711.
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GBP/USD is below 1.36. While bears push sterling to oversold conditions, Britain's rapid vaccination campaign and optimism about the Biden era may prompt a bounce. Support below 1.35 awaits at 1.3455, the 2020 trough, followed by 1.33, a stepping stone on the way up in late December. Some resistance is at 1.3545, which was a cushion early in the year. It is followed by 1.3610, a support line from last week. EUR/USD loses further momentum and drops to 1.2060. The better tone in the dollar keeps weighing on the pair. ECB’s Lagarde participates in the EuroGroup meeting. The upside momentum in EUR/USD run out of steam in the 1.2350 area earlier in the month. The subsequent corrective downside breached already the 1.2100 mark and appears to still have further legs to go. Despite the corrective downside, the outlook for EUR/USD remains constructive and appears supported by prospects of a strong recovery in the region (and abroad), which is in turn underpinned by extra fiscal stimulus by the Fed and the ECB. In addition, real interest rates continue to favour the euro area vs. the US, which is also another factor supporting the EUR along with the huge long positioning in the speculative community. The dollar index steadied after touching a one-month high and last traded at 90.857, its highest level since Dec. 21.
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GBP/USD has been hovering below 1.37 as markets digest Biden and Powell's speeches. The UK's vaccination campaign and weak US data may push cable above the strong 1.37 resistance. Critical resistance is at around 1.37-1.3705, which is now a triple-top after halting the pair's ascent in once again. Beyond 1.37, the next levels to watch are 1.3730, 1.3810, and 1.40 – all dating to 2018. Support awaits at 1.3610, Thursday's low, followed by 1.3545 and 1.3450. EUR/USD adds to the weekly drop near 1.2120. The offered bias around the single currency stays unchanged for yet another session and drags EUR/USD to the 1.2120 zone on Friday. The recent downside in the par has been exacerbated by dovish comments from ECB officials regarding the appreciation of the exchange rate in recent weeks and its impact on the inflation. This view was later reinforced by the ECB Accounts published on Thursday. The dollar edged higher Friday after President-elect Joe Biden outlined his plans for additional stimulus, but gains are likely to be limited after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declined to join any discussion about reducing monetary stimulus. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 90.267, rebounding from last week’s near three-year low. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 103.67, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was down 0.3% at 0.7753.
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The GBP/USD pair has been torn between optimism about the UK vaccine rollout and US stimulus hopes. Economists at Credit Suisse anticipate the Bank of England will increase its assets purchases by a further GBP150 B at its 4 February meeting, continuing a policy of fully financing gilt issuance. But critically, and contrary to market pricing, they do not expect the BoE to opt for negative rates, given the potential threat this poses to bank profits and credit growth. It is expected that the EUR/GBP and GBP/USD pairs can reach 0.87/88 and 1.40, respectively. The UK vaccination campaign continues at full speed, hitting 4.52% of the population – the highest in the Western world. Investors are looking beyond the current misery and to the future. The faster a country inoculates its population, the quicker the economic recovery. EUR/USD remains stuck in the 1.2150 region on Thursday. The ECB will publish its Accounts of the December meeting. US weekly Claims, Powell will dictate the sentiment later in the session. The U.S. Dollar Index was down just 0.04% at 90.302, holding just above the 89.206 low seen for the first time since March 2018 last week. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 104, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.3% at 0.7756.
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The GBP/USD pair has been advancing amid bond-related dollar weakness and BoE hawkishness but the initial surge above 1.37 may prove short-lived despite good reasons to rise. GBP/USD continues trading in an upwards channel and is nearing the 2021 peak of 1.3705 – also the highest since 2018. While momentum on the 4-hour chart is positive, the Relative Strength Index is hitting the 70 level – entering overbought conditions. That may result in a downside correction. The UK-EU free trade agreement (FTA) is welcome, in that it avoided a hard Brexit for merchandise trade. However, trade friction has risen and the government has yet to clarify its post-EU industrial strategy, which needs to be focused on productivity. Beyond a relief rally, the FTA does not provide a compelling reason to buy GBP now according to ANZ Bank. EUR/USD saw a quick drop below 1.2200 on French economy is seen contracting 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020 despite the lifting of the coronavirus lockdown and German’s health minister indicated impossibility to lift all restrictions in February due to the virus contagion. The dollar nursed losses on Wednesday as a retreat in U.S. yields sapped momentum from its recent rebound and investors cautiously resumed bets that it can resume sliding. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 6 basis points from a 10-month high hit on Tuesday and the turnaround snuffed out a three-day streak for the dollar. The dollar index was steady at 90.004 after falling 0.5% on Tuesday and is not far above last week's nearly three-year low of 89.206.
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The GBP/USD pair refreshed daily tops, around the 1.3565-70 region. Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey said that it appears less severe than that in spring last year. Negative rates are a controversial issue. There are a lot of issues with negative rates. No country has used negative rates in 'retail' end of the financial market. There are good reasons to think we're in a world of low rates for a long period of time. EUR/USD trades flat in the mid-1.2100 on turnaround Tuesday. The U.S. dollar held onto its recent gains on Tuesday after a spike in U.S. Treasury yields lifted demand for the currency. The dollar had hit a more than 2-1/2-year low in January after sliding for months as ultra-dovish policy from the Federal Reserve encouraged investors to seek alternative currencies. But expectations for a wave of spending under an incoming Joe Biden administration have pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year yield reaching a 10-month high on Tuesday. The dollar has bounced 1.5% since last Wednesday. Not only have markets brought forward bets on Fed interest rate increases to 2023, many also reckon it could start withdrawing, or tapering, asset purchases earlier. The dollar index was unchanged at 90.438, above lows of 89.206 hit last week.
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GBP/USD lost critical support at 1.3545 as the cable tumbled down due to Fed-related dollar strength and the UK's dire COVID situation. 1.3445 now turns from support to resistance. It is followed by 1.3640, a swing high last week, followed by the recent peak of 1.3705. EUR/USD loses further traction and drops below the 1.22 level. The recovery in the greenback keeps the pair under pressure. The Sentix index returned to the positive territory in January. Dollar Index was up 0.3% at 90.335, and is now over 1% higher than the almost three-year low it hit last week. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 104.16, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was down 0.8% at 0.7701.
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MHRA has approved Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for use, as reported by Reuters. The GBP/USD pair was up 0.25% near 1.3600. GBP/USD eyes 1.36 as the US dollar remains firmer on the session. Cracks key averages on the hourly chart, RSI stays bullish. Fresh Brexit also remains a cause for concern ahead of NFP. The national lockdown announced on January 4 will ensure a double-dip recession. MUFG forecasts -3.8% GDP in Q4 and -2.7% in Q1 2021. Assuming the current lockdown serves to alleviate capacity pressures on hospitals and vaccination roll-outs accelerate sharply, the hit to the economy in Q4 and Q1 can reverse quickly. The 2 million per week government target for vaccinations will be tough to achieve and we can only expect a gradual reversal from full lockdown from March onwards. MUFG Bank now expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates into negative territory at its next meeting on February 4. GBP will therefore under-perform this year. EUR/USD adds to Thursday’s losses well below 1.2300. The dollar’s rebound keeps weighing on the pair. US Nonfarm Payrolls, jobless rate next of relevance in the docket. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 89.812, bouncing off a near three-year low following a slide of nearly 7% in 2020. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 103.90, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.2% at 0.7783.
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Markets have been shrugging off the storming of the Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump. Investors focus on Democrats' win of the Senate after the elections in Georgia, pushing stocks higher. The dollar is torn by a move away from the safe-haven currency and higher yields. Coronavirus and vaccine statistics and jobless claims are eyed. Britain is struggling more than other countries, yet it is ramping up its vaccine distribution. GBP/USD is trading below 1.36, also amid England's strict lockdown. EUR/USD trades near-daily lows of 1.2293, down 0.24% on the day amid broad-based US dollar rebound, as the Treasury yields rally about 2% so far. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 89.472, still close to its overnight low of 89.206, a level not seen since March 2018. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 103.29, with the yen underperforming with a fresh state of emergency for Tokyo and the neighbouring Saitama, Kanagawa and Chiba prefectures is due to be declared later in the day as Covid-19 cases rise.
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The USD witnessed some fresh selling during the early European session and pushed the GBP/USD pair to two-day tops, around mid-1.3600s. The pair quickly reversed an intraday dip to sub-1.3600 level and moved into the positive territory for the second consecutive session on Wednesday. The uptick also marks the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six and was exclusively sponsored by the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar. Hopes for a strong global economic recovery in 2021 remained supportive of the underlying bullish tone in the financial markets. This, along with speculations that the Fed will keep rates lower for a longer period undermined the safe-haven greenback and further extended some support to the GBP/USD pair. Bulls seemed rather unaffected by concerns about the economic fallout from the imposition of a third nationwide lockdown in the UK, which might have raised prospects for additional policy easing by the Bank of England. Nevertheless, the USD price dynamics remains an exclusive driver of the GBP/USD pair's intraday positive move. The UK Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said Wednesday, the vaccine target set by Prime Minister Boris Johnson is very stretching. However, he said that they are confident of reaching the target. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.2288, having reached a high of 1.2327 early today. That was the highest level since April 2018. The dollar index hit a fresh 2-1/2 year low on Wednesday before firming about 0.1% to 89.575. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 1% for the first time since March.
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GBP/USD trims the previous day’s losses with eyes on April 2018 peak at 1.37 level. US dollar drops amid cautious optimism backed by virus vaccine, Georgian runoff hopes. UK announced third lockdown, fears of South African variant of COVID also loom. US ISM Manufacturing PMI, UK virus updates and American politics will be the key. EUR/USD is holding above 1.2250 but Commerzbank spots a negative divergence on the daily RSI which warrants caution. Nonetheless, the pair still targets 1.2624, the 200-month moving average, in the long-term. The Georgia Senate runoffs on January 5, 2021, will determine the balance of power in the Senate. The Senate is currently controlled by Republicans, who hold 50 seats to the Democrats' 48. If the Democrats are able to win both Georgia seats, the Senate would be tied at 50-50, with incoming Vice President Harris becoming the potential tie-breaker in favour of the Democrats. According to economists at TD Securities, the USD could see further downside momentum should the Democrats flip both Georgia seats. The dollar index was at 89.733, but above Monday’s low of 89.415, seen for the first time since April 2018. USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 102.92, after dropping as low as 102.715 on Monday for the first time since March.
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GBP/USD trims early Asian gains that refreshed multi-month top to 1.3698, before currently declining to 1.3680, up 0.10% intraday, while heading into the London open on Monday. A one-month-old ascending trend line near 1.3745 lures GBP/USD buyers unless the quote drops below September 2020 high near 1.3480. The new year has begun with the dollar on the back foot and a cautious market mood. Equities are only marginally higher, the safe-haven dollar extends its decline, with EUR/USD rising toward 1.23. the shared currency continued benefitting from the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. This, in turn, assisted the EUR/GBP cross to gains some positive traction on Monday and snap three consecutive days of losing streak. The dollar index was down 0.3% at 89.597, not far above a more than 2-1/2 year low of 89.515 made last week. The index dropped more than 7% last year, its first annual loss since 2017. USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 102.95, after Japan's Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, said his government is mulling a state of emergency in Tokyo as infections rise. AUD/USD was up 0.2% at 0.7721. Cryptocurrencies continue their uptrend, with Bitcoin trading around $32,000 after surging above $34,000 over the holidays. Ethereum is also soaring, changing hands above $1,000. XRP is attempting recovery above $0.20 after a legal issue sent Ripple's token to a free-fall.
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The official announcement on a likely Brexit deal could be delayed by a minimum of a couple of hours, as the talks on the key issue of fisheries continue, several media houses reported. GBP/USD holds the higher ground, as the bulls aim to conquer the 1.36 barrier amid optimism over a potential Brexit deal. EUR/USD clings to 1.2200 as Brexit optimism downs the USD. The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia, with investors retreating from the safe-haven greenback and turning to the pound over expectations of an imminent Brexit deal that could help the U.K. avoid a turbulent economic rupture come Jan. 1. The dollar index inched down 0.09% to 90.168.
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The GBP/USD pair refreshed daily tops, around the 1.3415 region in the last, albeit quickly retreated few pips thereafter. The pair was last seen trading near the 1.3440-45 region, up around 0.50% for the day. The pair built on the overnight late rebound from the vicinity of the 1.3300 mark and gained some strong follow-through traction through the first half of the trading action on Wednesday. Despite the lack of progress in Brexit negotiations, investors remain hopeful about the possibility of a last-minute EU-UK deal. This was seen as one of the key factors lending some support to the British pound. The Bank of England (BOE) must keep a close eye on the inflation expectations as the Kingdom could find it difficult to manage its debt burden after the coronavirus pandemic, Chief Economist Andy Haldane said. EUR/USD consolidates the Asian bounce ahead of the European open, as the US dollar holds the lower ground amid mixed market sentiment. The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with markets eagerly awaiting a Brexit trade deal breakthrough while on the other hand, US President obstructed a $900 billion COVID stimulus, calling the bill as a disgrace. The dollar index was down 0.23% to 90.338. The USD/JPY pair edged down 0.16% to 103.47. The AUD/USD pair gained 0.43% to 0.7553.
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A modest pickup in the USD demand prompted some fresh selling around GBP/USD on Tuesday. The discovery of a new COVID-19 strain continued driving some haven flows towards the USD. Hopes for a last-minute Brexit deal extended some support to the GBP and helped limit losses. EUR/USD failed to capitalise on the overnight bounce and witnessed some fresh selling on Tuesday. The discovery of a new COVID-19 variant benefitted the safe-haven USD and exerted some pressure. The lack of any strong follow-through selling warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, but jitters over a new COVID-19 strain left the greenback trading well below the peaks seen during a rollercoaster session overnight. The dollar index edged up 0.20% to 90.132. However, the dollar is headed for a third consecutive quarterly loss and is down 12.5% from a three-year peak in March.
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GBP/USD added to its steep intraday decline and plunged to over one-week lows. New coronavirus strains led to fresh lockdown in the UK and weighed on the GBP. Weaker risk tone benefitted the safe-haven USD and contributed to the selling bias. The pair opened with a bearish gap on the first day of a new trading week in reaction to the imposition of tighter restrictions in the UK to stem a fast-spreading new coronavirus strain. This comes on the back of a deadlock in the post-Brexit trade negotiations and weighed heavily on the British pound. Meanwhile, fresh coronavirus jitters overshadowed the optimism over a deal on a long-awaited $900 billion US coronavirus aid package and an emergency use approval for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine. This, in turn, took its toll on the global risk sentiment and triggered a sharp pullback in the equity markets. Following a volatile Q1, EUR/USD gained strong upside traction breaking above the long-term downside trendline from the 2008 high. Essentially, the fact that the euro managed to clear this important barrier was a strong bullish signal. The 1.45 mark would be an ambitious target for investors who expect the shared currency to perform well in the next years, according to economists at Rabobank. The dollar index corrected after an extended slide on bets that a weak dollar will favor growth in emerging economies next year. The trigger for the reversal came from a story arguing that Janet Yellen, who is set to be the next Treasury Secretary, may return to defending the U.S.'s traditional policy of a strong dollar, after four years of unvarnished attempts by the Trump administration to weaken it.
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GPB/USD struggles near session lows, around 1.3500 mark on no-deal Brexit talks. Fading hopes for a last-minute Brexit deal prompted some aggressive selling around GBP/USD. A modest USD short-covering bounce contributed to the ongoing pullback from multi-year tops. The intraday selling around the British pound picked paced in the last hour and dragged the GBP/USD pair back below the key 1.3500 psychological mark, or fresh session lows. Having struggled to find acceptance above the 1.3600 mark on Thursday, the pair witnessed some long-unwinding trade on the last day of the week amid a flurry of Brexit-related headlines. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suppressed hopes for a last-minute Brexit deal and said that the most likely outcome was for the UK to leave the EU without a deal. EUR/USD holds steady near 1.2250-60 region, just below multi-year tops. EUR/USD edged lower on Friday amid a modest USD short-covering bounce. The shared currency remained well supported by the incoming positive data. The German IFO Business Climate rose to 92.1 in December vs 90 expected. The EUR/USD pair traded with a mild negative bias through the early European session, albeit has managed to recover a major part of its intraday downtick. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.2255-60 region, just a few pips away from 32-month tops set on Thursday. The pair witnessed some profit-taking on the last trading day of the week and was pressured by a modest US dollar short-covering bounce amid the underlying cautious mood around the equity markets. The US congressional negotiators still haven’t yet agreed on a new coronavirus-relief package and tempered the recent optimism. The dollar edged higher Friday, rebounded to a degree after recent sharp selling, but this safe haven remains largely friendless as risk appetite grows. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 89.820, just above the 2-1/2-year low hit on Thursday. The index is down 1.2% for the week so far, on course for its worst week in a month, and has fallen 6.5% this year to date. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 103.35, after falling as far as 102.88 Thursday, with the Bank of Japan keeping its key interest rates and asset purchases unchanged, and extending its special support programs for pandemic-hit businesses by six months. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD was down 0.2% at 0.7608, yet is on course for its seventh consecutive weekly gain.
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UK Interior Minister Priti Patel, a staunch supporter of Brexit, has said that the talks are in a tunnel and parliament may be reconvened if talks conclude with a deal. The senior minister added that the government is ready for a no-deal outcome. The EU term "tunnel" means intense negotiations. GBP/USD has extended its gains above 1.3580, extending its gains and hitting the highest since 2018. The dollar slumped to multi-year lows in early European trade Thursday, as growing confidence of both a new U.S. stimulus package and a Brexit deal boosted risk appetite at the expense of the world's safe haven. The dollar index, was down 0.5% at 89.877, falling to levels last seen in March 2018. USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 103.22, EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.2230, trading at levels not seen since March 2018, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.5% at 0.7614, again at levels last seen in March 2018.
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Von der Leyen: there is a path to an agreement; GBP/USD nears 1.3479/83. Brexit to knock around 5% off UK GDP in the long run – ABN Amro. GBP/USD nears the September and current December highs which were made at 1.3483 and 1.3540. A drop below the 2020 uptrend line at 1.3142 would negate upside pressure and target 1.2855 November low as well as the 200-day moving average at 1.2759. EUR/USD consolidated in the weekly highs ahead of the Fed. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2170, trading near a 2 1/2-year high of 1.2177 touched on Monday. The flash version of the German Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 58.6 in December. The reading was well above consensus estimates pointing to a fall to 56.4 from 57.8 recorded in the previous month. The dollar continued to head lower in early European trade Wednesday, with traders deserting the safe haven as U.S. lawmakers make progress toward a Covid-19 relief package ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 90.317, falling to levels last seen in April 2018. USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 103.44, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.1% at 0.7564, near the June 2018 high of at 0.7580 seen on Monday.
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The GBP/USD pair held on to its modest gains near session tops, just below mid-1.3300s and had a rather muted reaction to the UK macro release. COVID-19 vaccine, expectations for more US stimulus undermined the USD and remained supportive. Mixed UK employment detail did little to influence or provide any meaningful impetus to the major. EUR/USD looks set to test 1.2200, fresh multi-year tops. A pennant breakout is likely on the hourly chart. RSI stays bullish while the spot recaptured 21-HMA. The dollar remained near multi-year lows in early European trade Tuesday, with little news to challenge a dominant narrative that sees loose U.S. policy underpinning a broad global recovery next year. The dollar index was largely flat at 90.688, after sinking as low as 90.419 on Monday, a level unseen since April 2018. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.06 and AUD/USD was down 0.2% at 0.7523, after touching the highest since June 2018 at 0.7578 on Monday.
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GBP/USD has surged above 1.33 after bouncing from the 55-day ma at 1.3137. Nevertheless, the pair still looks at the five-month uptrend at 1.3056 which remains key to sustain the upside pressure. GBP/USD sold off on Friday following the failure at tough resistance at the 1.3500/1.3540 recent high and December 2019 high. It has bounced from the 55-day moving average at 1.3137, but this has not been enough to restore the up move and, for now, the five-month uptrend at 1.3056 remains pivotal. EUR/USD’s upside looks elusive despite the technical breakout. A falling wedge bullish break confirmed on the hourly chart. Bearish crossovers, bullish RSI put EUR bulls in limbo. The dollar headed lower in early European trade Monday, as traders deserted the safe haven on hopes that Congress will finally agree a fiscal stimulus package ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The dollar index was down 0.4% at 90.562, trading near a two-and-a-half year low. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 103.98, EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.2155, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.4% at 0.7564.
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GBP/USD is again backing away from tough resistance at the 1.3500/1.3540 recent high and December 2019 high. We are alert to a set back from here near-term. Nearby support is offered by the 55-day moving average at 1.3129 and also by 1.3050, the five-month uptrend and for now, while above here the market remains bid. EUR/USD came under fresh selling pressure on the renewed virus concerns and ECB policymaker Villeroy’s Galhau’s and comments on the euro exchange rate. The spot was last seen trading at 1.2116, losing 0.14% on the day. The dollar weakened in early European trade Friday, with optimism of a recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic weighing on this safe haven, while the pound weakened on growing Brexit uncertainty. The dollar index down 0.1% at 90.797, trading near a two-and-a-half year low. USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 104.03, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.4% at 0.7558.
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GBP/USD is on the back foot after the Brussels' Brexit dinner failed to yield a breakthrough. Ongoing talks, now set to extend through Sunday, overshadow US fiscal stimulus and virus developments. Failing to reach a deal three weeks before the transition expires is an adverse development for the pound. Contingency plans for a no-deal exit are likely to grab the headlines, further weighing on sentiment. The fact that investors will be unable to react to a Sunday statement may cause some to take bets off the table. Fear of another deadlock could prompt a run against the pound. Republicans and Democrats seem to coalesce around the framework – $900 billion – but not about the details. Nevertheless, there seems to be more optimism in Washington than in Brussels. GBP/USD extends losses towards 1.3300. The spot was last seen trading at 1.3316, down 0.60% on the day. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bounces-off 200-HMA to regain 1.2100 ahead of ECB. The dollar edged lower in early European trade Thursday, with traders keeping a wary eye on the ongoing negotiations over Brexit trade in Europe and a Covid-19 relief package in the U.S., ahead of key central bank meetings. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 91.050, only slightly above the recent 2 1/2-year low of 90.471. USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 104.50, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.2% at 0.7461.
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The GBP/USD pair maintained its bid tone through the early European session and was last seen hovering just below daily tops, around the 1.3380 region. The pair managed to regain some positive traction during the first half of the trading action on Wednesday and for now, has snapped three consecutive days of the losing streak. The uptick was supported by the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar and seemed rather unaffected by persistent Brexit uncertainties. Positive news on COVID-19 vaccine approvals and efforts to launch more fiscal stimulus to support the US economy boosted investors' confidence. This was evident from a positive trading sentiment across the global equity markets, which snapped demand for the traditional safe-haven greenback and remained supportive of the intraday positive move. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has formed a strong base ahead of the 1.3200 mark. EUR/USD has completed a much-needed correction and may be ready to rocket again after moving too high. The world’s most popular currency pair is ready to attack 1.22 as stimulus, Brexit and technicals look promising. The latest move higher is likely the result of dollar weakness fuelled by the risk-on action in the Asian equities and the futures tied to the S&P 500. The dollar weakened in early European trade Wednesday, with growing confidence surrounding U.S. fiscal stimulus and the vaccine rollout prompting traders to seek out riskier currencies. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 90.812, still only slightly above the recent 2 1/2-year low of 90.471. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 104.23, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.5% at 0.7445.
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A modest pickup in the USD demand prompted some fresh selling around GBP/USD on Tuesday. Concerns about the ever-increasing COVID-19 cases drove haven flows towards the greenback. Investors might refrain from placing aggressive bets, rather prefer to wait for fresh Brexit updates. Euro area GDP grew at a strong pace in third quarter. EUR/USD pair trades with modest gains above 1.2100. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 90.907, only slightly above the 2 1/2-year low of 90.471 on Friday. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD was down 0.2% at 0.7409.
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GBP/USD witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Monday. Not so optimistic Brexit-related headlines took its toll on the sterling and exerted some pressure. Softer risk tone benefitted the safe-haven USD and contributed to the pair’s intraday selling bias. With less than four weeks left before the Brexit transition period ends on December 31, the not so optimistic developments continued weighing heavily on the British pound. In fact, the GBP/USD pair broke through the 1.3300 mark and tumbled to over two-week lows during the early European session. EUR/USD drops to 3-day lows near 1.2080 on Monday. The risk aversion mood supports the demand for the dollar. German Industrial Production expanded 3.2% MoM in October. The single currency adds to Friday’s corrective downside and drags EUR/USD to fresh lows in the sub-1.2100 area on Monday. The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Monday, rebounding from multi-year lows as Covid-19 cases continue to mount and lockdowns expand, weighing on the U.S. economic recovery. The dollar index was up 0.3% at 90.993, rebounding a touch having hit a 2 1/2-year low of 90.471 on Friday. USD/JPY was largely unchanged at 104.11, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was flat at 0.7420, not far off its highest level in more than two years.
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GBP/USD bulls turn cautious amid the incoming Brexit-related headlines. Hopes for a last-minute Brexit deal, weaker USD helped limit the downside. Investors await Brexit updates, NFP report for a fresh directional impetus. GBP/USD seesaws in a nearly 25-pip trading range above 1.3445, currently teasing the intraday low of 1.3444 while heading into Friday’s London open. Although US dollar weakness propelled the quote to the yearly top the previous day, Brexit woes are back to haunt the Cable buyers. EUR/USD has reached 1.2145, the 78.6% retracement and this may provoke some consolidation, it is also the break up point longer term to 1.2622, the 200 month moving average, this remains our overall target, representing a 1.5% weekly gain, and well above the horizontal resistance of $1.2011 (Sept. 1 high). If the gains above 1.2011 are held through Friday's close, a bullish breakout would be confirmed on the weekly chart. The dollar slipped lower in early European trade Friday, on course for a loss of nearly 2% for the week, as increased optimism that U.S. lawmakers will come together to agree a new coronavirus relief package boosts risk sentiment. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 90.638, just above the two-and-a-half year low of 90.504 seen on Thursday. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 103.92, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD edged 0.1% lower to 0.7431, not far off its highest level in more than two years.
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The continuation of the upside momentum in Cable is predicted to meet a tough barrier in the 1.3500/15 area, noted Commerzbank. “GBP/USD has eroded its long term downtrend and is approaching the 1.3500/1.3515 December 2019 high. This is a long term pivot and both levels represent major resistance, we would allow for them to hold the initial test.” “Nearby support is offered by the 55 day moving average at 1.3065 and also by 1.3009, the 5 month uptrend and for now, while above here the market remains bid.” “EUR/USD has maintained upside pressure following the break above the 1.2014 August peak. It is poised to reach 1.2145, the 78.6% retracement and this is the break up point longer term to 1.2622, the 200 month moving average. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and will attempt to buy the dips. Dips should find initial support at 1.1921 and good nearby support at the 1.1800/03 November 23 low and the 55 day ma. EUR/USD will remain bid while above the six month support line at 1.1742.”The dollar continues to lack friends in early European trade Thursday, with optimism over the rollout of vaccines and talk of new U.S. fiscal stimulus prompting risk-on trades. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 90.925, trading around levels last seen well over two years ago. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.38, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD climbed 0.2% to 0.7428, its highest level in more than two years.
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GBP/USD was trading above 1.3400 going into European trading, having hit three-month highs at 1.3440 amid broad-based US dollar weakness. However, the pair dropped back to 1.3350 after the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), the UK’s medical regulator, gave a green signal to the coronavirus vaccine co-developed by BioNTech SE and Pfizer Inc on Wednesday, concluding it’s both safe and effective. The cable traders seems to be waiting for news from the Brexit negotiations for new imputes. The vaccine approval news failed to boost risk appetite, which is nowhere near the support came from the vaccine efficacy news in November. EUR/USD has cleared the 1.2014 August peak, such a move targets initially 1.2145, the 78.6% retracement and longer term 1.2622, the 200 month moving average. The dollar weakened in early European trade Wednesday, as vaccine optimism and talk of further fiscal stimulus from the United States gave fresh encouragement to higher-yielding currencies. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 91.157, hitting its lowest levels since April 2018. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 104.47, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD climbed 0.2% to 0.7381.
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GBP/USD eases from the intraday high of 1.3366 while trading near 1.3360 during the pre-London open session on Tuesday. The Cable prints 0.25% intraday gains by press time as the bulls prefer following US dollar (USD) declines over Brexit headlines ahead of the UK Manufacturing PMI for November. US dollar index (DXY) fades bounce off the lowest since April 2018, marked the previous day, as US officials highlight concerns over the economic recovery while pushing for the coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package. Be it Fed Chair Jerome Powell or US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, not to forget Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan, all of them showed discretion about the likeliness of the world’s largest economy to lost recovery moves if the much-awaited stimulus stays far. EUR/USD re-targets the 1.2000 mark on Tuesday. German jobless rate ticked lower to 6.1% in November. EMU’s advanced inflation figures next of note in the docket. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 91.748, after suffering its worst month in November since July. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 104.33, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD climbed 0.3% to 0.7366 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate and three-year yield target at 0.10%, as expected.
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The pound is feeling the pull of the gravity on the downbeat Brexit comments, with GBP/USD trading flat at 1.3316, as of writing. The spot erased all the gains and hit a daily low of 1.3306. If there is no agreement on fisheries, the whole (Brexit) thing could fall on the back of it,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney warned on Monday. “Fisheries is a more difficult issue than level playing field.” “The UK attempting to separate fisheries from other issues.” “We are not going to play that game.” EUR/USD reached near three-month highs early Monday, with the safe-haven dollar extending recent losses on continued expectations for a swift global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines. The pair rose to 1.1974 during the Asian trading hours, the highest level since Sept. 1, having charted a bullish outside week candle in the five days to Nov. 27. EUR/USD looks set to end the month with at least 2% gains. The shared currency has remained better bid throughout the month despite the rising coronavirus cases across Eurozone and economically-painful lockdown restrictions in Germany and France. The dollar drifted lower in early European trade Monday, as lingering vaccine optimism and expectations of more Federal Reserve largesse see traders desert this safe haven. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 91.705, having fallen to its lowest level since April 2018 and set to record its largest monthly fall since July, down 2.5%. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.03.
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GBP/USD’s path of least resistance appears to the upside. The spot charted a bull pennant on the 15-minutes chart. Bullish crossover and RSI add credence to the advance. EUR/USD is edging higher as the pair is currently hovering around 1.1930, up 0.15% on the day. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, maintains a bullish outlook while the EUR/USD pair trades above the 1.18 level. The dollar weakened in early European trade Friday, set to post weekly losses with traders expecting large-scale stimulus from the new administration to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 91.892, near the three-month low since late Thursday. Volumes are likely to remain limited after Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., with many traders set to enjoy a long weekend. USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 104.06. Additionally, AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.7372, near a three-month high, while NZD/USD gained 0.2% to 0.7021, near its strongest level in over two years.
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GBP/USD rallied as high as the mid-1.3390s on Wednesday, but has since eased off back to close to 1.3380. The pair is eyeing a test of highs set on Monday at 1.3398, ahead of a test of the psychologically important 1.3400 level. The UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to tame the biggest budget deficit since world war two couldn’t disappoint the Cable buyers the previous day as the US dollar index (DXY) dropped to a fresh low since September 01. Not only the downbeat data but risk-on mood also negatively affected the greenback on Wednesday. EUR/USD renews three-month highs near 1.1940, benefiting from a broadly weaker US dollar amid dismal US economic releases. The spot is gaining 0.18% on the day. The EUR/USD 1.15-1.20 range resistance is at risk as hopes for 2021 recovery outweigh the grip of COVID-19 restrictions on the region and likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) easing, per Westpac. “Last week’s block of the EC’s vaunted Recovery Fund, and its 7yr Budget, by Poland and Hungary may be seen as more of a frustration than risking any failure to implement the Fund and Budget. However, it places further pressure on ECB to enact larger-scale policy easing through its highlighted recalibration of their PEPP and TLTRO facilities. Guidance on the scale of recalibration will no doubt be provided into the Dec 10th ECB meeting.” The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 91.892, falling to its lowest level in more than two months. Volumes are limited with the U.S. on holiday to celebrate Thanksgiving. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.34. AUD/USD inched up to 0.73664, near its highest since September, while NZD/USD edged up to 0.70036, near its strongest level in over two years. Both currencies are considered guides to risk sentiment due to their close ties with the global commodities trade.
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GBP/USD remains choppy inside a narrow trading range, currently around 1.3377, while heading into Wednesday’s London open. The pair traders mark indecisiveness amid a lack of major data/events as well as mixed clues for Brexit. Also challenging the pair’s move could be the cautious mood ahead of the UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement and US GDP, not to forget FOMC minutes. According to the UOB group, cable looks firm and could advance to the area past 1.3400 as long as it trades above 1.3200. EUR/USD is trading around 1.19 as the pair creeps ever closer to its range high at 1.1920/26. Above this level, the world’s most popular currency pair sees next resistance at the August high of 1.2014, analysts at Commerzbank apprise. The dollar continued to weaken in early European trade Wednesday, with riskier currencies more in vogue as investors look to the new administration in the U.S. for additional stimulus amid solid progress towards Covid-19 vaccines. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.2% at 92.052. USD/JPY was largely flat at 104.44. The greenback is also close to a two-month low against the Australian dollar and a two-year low against the New Zealand dollar, both considered barometers of risk sentiment due to their close ties with the global commodities trade. Risk appetite has improved after the outgoing President Donald Trump's administration began cooperating with the transition to a Joe Biden presidency, and after reports that former Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen, an advocate of bigger fiscal stimulus, is set to become Treasury Secretary.
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GBP/USD prints mild gains above 1.3300, currently up 0.10% around 1.3300, while heading into Tuesday’s London open. GBP/USD is approaching a 13-year downtrend at 1.3422 where the cable is expected to fail and reverse back with support seen at 1.3004, per Commerzbank. Although key issues like fisheries, governance and competition remain unsolved, the Telegraph came out with the news, also conveyed by the Financial Times (FT), suggesting nearness to Brexit deal with interim plans that can be edited after several years. EUR/USD trades near 1.1850 versus 1.1833 in early Asia. Monday's price action shows indecision in the market place. A big beat on German IFO Expectations data is needed to force a bullish close. The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, with riskier currencies boosted by the news that U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is set to nominate Janet Yellen as the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. The dollar index inched down 0.03% to 92.487 by 10:02 PM ET (2:02 AM GMT). The dollar saw its lowest level since Sep. 1 overnight, as clarity from November’s U.S. presidential election begins to emerge. The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.02% to 104.56 as Japanese markets reopened after national holiday on Monday. The safe-haven yen is slowing reversing a slip of around 0.6% seen during the previous session. Both Antipodean risk currencies benefitted from the increased risk appetite. The AUD/USD pair was up 0.25% to 0.7304 and the NZD/USD pair gained 0.65% to 0.6966. The USD/CNY pair edged down 0.11% to 6.5777.
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GBP/USD rose 0.4% to 1.3329, helped by the AstraZeneca vaccine news. Addiitionally, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said Sunday that he is optimistic that a Brexit trade agreement with the European Union will be reached soon. Still, even if the UK-EU trade deal is reached, “the lack of risk premia priced into GBP suggests only a limited upside,” said analysts at ING, in a research note. However, with politics and the U.K.-EU relationship uncertainty taking a less prominent role next year, this should allow GBP to benefit from the weak USD dynamics, sending GBP/USD above 1.40 in 2021. The pound was also edging higher against the euro, testing the five-month high it notched earlier this month. The upside momentum in Cable could extend to the 1.3360 area in the next weeks according to the UoB Group. The upbeat manufacturing PM partly offset concerns about the economic damage caused by the second wave of coronavirus infections in the region. This, in turn, remained supportive of a bid tone surrounding the EUR/USD pair, which was last seen trading with modest daily gains near the 1.1870 region. The Dollar Index was 0.2% at 92.248, just above the month’s low of 92.129. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 103.81, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.7317.
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The UK retail sales came in at 1.2% over the month in October vs. 0% expected and 1.5% previous. The core retail sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, stood at 1.3% MoM vs. 0.1% expected and 1.6% previous. On an annualized basis, the UK retail sales jumped by 5.8% in October versus 4.2% expected and 4.7% prior while the core retail sales increased by 7.8% in the reported month versus 5.9% expectations and 6.4% previous. The GBP/USD pair held on to its modest intraday gains near the 1.3275-80 region and had a rather muted reaction to the latest UK macro data. It, however, remains to be seen if bulls can capitalize on the move or the GBP/USD pair struggles to move back above the 1.3300 mark as investors await Brexit-related updates. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move, possibly towards mid-1.3300s. EUR/USD extends the consolidative fashion on Friday as the pair once again prolongs the rangebound trade at the end of the week and always below the 1.19 mark, which has become a solid obstacle for any serious bullish attempt in past sessions. “Investors continue to look past the pandemic and favour the ‘glass half-full’ vision, always on the back of rising hopes of an effective vaccine in the short-term horizon, which at the same time reignite the idea of a ‘V’-shaped recovery in the euro area and the rest of the world.” The dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, in tight ranges as traders digest a potential rift between U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 92.325, just above the month’s low of 92.129. The dollar has lost ground against riskier currencies for over a week as drug manufacturers continue to report progress towards a Covid-19 vaccine. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 103.86, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7286.
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GBP/USD fell sharply from above 1.3300 and was last seen trading around 1.3230, down -0.3% on the day. Initial support awaits at 1.2995 as Commerzbank expects the cable to fail in the 1.3310- 1.3422 band. Bloc members to push the European Commission for no-deal Brexit preparations, UK policymakers were hopeful earlier. Ascending triangle breakdown confirmed on the 4H chart. Bullish RSI points north keeping buyers hopeful. EUR/USD trades flat after Wednesday's marginal losses. France says EU leaders could move ahead with a budget without Hungary and Poland. The Eurozone needs fiscal aid to combat the second-wave of the coronavirus. The dollar nursed losses on Thursday following five sessions of declines as investors' longer-term optimism about COVID-19 vaccines ran in to worries about rising infections and risks to the fragile global economic recovery. Small gains against most majors lifted the greenback from Wednesday's eight-session low against a basket of currencies, but it remains near the month's trough of 92.129.
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GBP/USD remained well supported by the latest Brexit optimism. Slightly better UK consumer inflation figures remained supportive. GBP/USD keeps gains around 1.3265 on the data release. The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate came in at +0.7% in October when compared to +0.5% booked in September while beating expectations of a +0.6% print, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Wednesday. A promising development in late-stage COVID-19 vaccine trials dented the greenback's relative safe-haven status. This, along with concerns about the economic fallout from new coronavirus restrictions in several US states kept the USD bulls on the defensive. EUR/USD has been shrugging off cautious words from central bankers and extending its gains. The pair is currently trading near 1.1868, representing marginal gains on the day, having put in a low of 1.1850 during the Asian session. Coronavirus headlines and speculation about the next stimulus boosts are eyed on Wednesday. A coronavirus vaccine is no game-changer for forecasts – the words of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, poured some cold water on investor enthusiasm. The ECB already incorporated immunization from the virus in 2021 as part of its outlook and remains worried about the current spread of the disease. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, echoed her cautious words. Lagarde stated that additional stimulus is coming, while Powell only opened the door to a potential expansion. If the Fed proceeds with another boost, EUR/USD has room to rise. Final eurozone inflation figures for October will likely confirm the drop of 0.3% in the headline Consumer Price Index. US Building Permits and Housing Starts are eyed in the US on Wednesday. However, the focus is on the virus and central banks. The dollar edged lower in early European trade Wednesday, weighed by signs the surge in coronavirus vases is hitting the U.S. consumer while the country’s political scene remains divided. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 92.245. USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 103.91, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7304.
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GBP/USD prints three-day winning streak despite easing off-late, trading at 1.3220. The pound could fall as much as 5% against the US dollar if the UK and European Union (EU) fail to reach a Brexit trade deal, the latest Bloomberg survey of nine strategists revealed on Tuesday. A two-week-old support line, currently near 1.3160, restricts the short-term downside of GBP/USD ahead of 1.3080/75 rest-area. Meanwhile, bullish MACD and sustained trading above 1.3100 favour buyers targeting to refresh the monthly top near 1.3315. EUR/USD keeps targeting the 1.1920 level. EUR popped to a high of 1.1868, upward momentum is beginning to improve and the bias for today is tilted to the upside. A move above 1.1880 would not be surprising but the major resistance at 1.1920 is unlikely to come under threat. All in, only a break of 1.1820 (minor support at 1.1840) would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased. The dollar edged lower in early European trade Tuesday, as the surge in Covid-19 cases in the U.S. prompted more restrictions and as worries about a smooth transfer of presidential power mount. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 92.532. USD/JPY fell less than 0.1% to 104.54, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7313.
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GBP/USD at four-day tops, extending its bullish momentum above 1.3200, as US dollar loses further ground. Risk-on mood overshadows discouraging Brexit developments. Focus remains on the covid stats amid light economic docket. EUR/USD prints gains as risk-on weighs over the safe-haven greenback, in the 1.1850 neighborhood. The rising coronavirus cases across the Eurozone could cap upside in the EUR. Meanwhile the agreement on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, free trade deal also adds to the upbeat market sentiment. The dollar weakened in early European trade Monday, with positive economic data out of Asia increasing optimism of a global recovery even given the continuing rise of new Covid-19 cases. The Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 92.597. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.53, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.7287.
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Cable is likely to trade between 1.3000 and 1.3250 in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. GBP/USD awaits fresh clues while taking rounds to the weekly low, off intraday bottom recently. Coronavirus cases in the UK, the US refresh record high, British economy losses more momentum in September. Brexit signals keep being mixed, UK’s finance ministry can extend tax break to manufacturers. Downbeat statements from Fed’s Powell, RBNZ’s Orr emphasize Bailey speech. EUR/USD challenges 3-day peaks in the 1.1820/30 band. The dollar keeps correcting lower and supports the pair’s upside. EMU’s flash Q3 GDP, Balance of Trade figures next of note in the docket. The dollar edged marginally lower in early European trade Friday, but the continuing rise of new Covid-19 cases throughout Europe and the U.S. is making traders nervous of buying riskier currencies despite the positive news of a potential vaccine. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 92.898. GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.3155, USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 105.00, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7233.
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GBP/USD witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Thursday. Mostly disappointing UK macro data failed to provide any respite or ease the intraday selling bias. Data published by the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy expanded by 1.1% in September and 15.5% during the third quarter of 2020, both missing consensus estimates. Separately, the UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures for September also fell short of market expectations. The data comes on the back of persistent Brexit-related uncertainties and continued undermining the sentiment surrounding the British pound. EUR/USD is currently side-lined near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1768, down 0.88% this week. The pair risks a deeper drop on dovish ECB talk and softer German yields. Continued gains in Treasury yields would add to bearish pressures. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, with traders shying away from riskier currencies as they readjusted their expectations surrounding a potential Covid-19 vaccine. EUR/USD is likely to keep trading within the 1.1720-1.1880 range in the next weeks. The Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 93.073, USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 105.28, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7262.
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GBP/USD recedes the upside momentum while declining from the multiday high of 1.3280 to 1.3263, up 0.12% intraday. The pair recently benefited from the mixed risk sentiment and increasing odds of a soft Brexit. Though, virus woes, an off in the US limit the quote’s short-term moves. Cable’s further upside is forecast to meet a relevant hurdle at 1.3380 ahead of 1.3420, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Commerzbank expects the cable to fail in the 1.3310-1.3422 band. EUR/USD is in stasis amid increased hopes for coronavirus vaccine and evidence of a renewed slowdown in the German economy. The European Central Bank President Lagarde's speech, due at 13:00 GMT, may provide a clear directional bias to the common currency. The pair extends its 20-pips range play above 1.1800 into the European open, as markets digest the latest vaccine euphoria amid coronavirus escalation globally. The ECB must announce additional monetary policy easing in December to avoid the risk of deflation in the Eurozone, Oscar Arce, the Spanish central bank’s Chief Economist said in an interview in Madrid late Tuesday. With several Eurozone nations back in the economically-painful coronavirus lockdown restrictions, ECB's President Lagarde has little room to sound hawkish. The German economy is already showing signs of weakness. The German ZEW index dropped from 56.1 to 39 in the month of November, reflecting concerns about a double-dip recession. The data marks the beginning of what should be a series of weaker economic reports poised to plague the currency. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday in thin volumes, as traders continued to digest the implications of Pfizer’s potential Covid-19 vaccine. The Dollar Index (DXY) was up just 0.04% at 92.775. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 105.39, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.7295. The New Zealand dollar recovered from an early dip to hit its strongest level in more than a year as traders scaled back bets that the central bank would move to negative interest rates.
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GBP/USD recedes to 1.3160 during the initial hour of Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair refreshed the two-month peak on Monday but failed to stay positive beyond 1.3200. However, bullish signals from the MACD joins strong RSI, not near the overbought region, favor the GBP/USD buyers to keep the optimism while targeting a resistance line stretched from September 10, at 1.3246 now. In doing so, a clear break above the recent high of 1.3208 becomes necessary. While the quote is likely to post another U-turn from the mid-1.3200 area, any further upside can be challenged by the August 18 high near 1.3270, a break of which could challenge the yearly top surrounding 1.3485. EUR/USD bounces from key support, as treasury yields yield retreat from five-month highs, weakening demand for the US dollar. The pair is currently trading at session highs near 1.1835, having found bids around the ascending 5-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1812. The dollar is losing altitude against most majors, possibly tracking the decline in the US 10-year yield to 0.91% from the five-month high of 0.97%. Markets seem to be reassessing the optimism generated by the US drugmaker Pfizer's disclosure of the positive initial trial results of its coronavirus vaccine. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 92.778, above Monday's 10-week low of 92.12. USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 105.03, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7278, near Monday’s seven-week high.
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GBP/USD faced rejection near the 1.3200 mark and witnessed a modest pullback on Monday. Comments by Ireland's Coveney revived no-deal Brexit fears and weighed on the British pound. A subdued USD price action helped limit the downside ahead of BoE Governor Bailey’s speech. EUR/USD advanced to 1.1890 retaining substantial gains at the end of the week as the US presidential election blurred pandemic chaos. The EUR/USD pair has the risk skewed to the upside. Further up sit the mid-August high at 1.1966 and the August peak at 1.2014. The dollar weakened in early European trade Monday, as traders looked to riskier currencies to play Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election amid hope for more fiscal largesse and continued easy monetary policy. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 92.172, falling to its lowest level since early September. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 103.50, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7290, a seven-week high.
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The renewed Brexit concerns failed to exert negative impact on the pound, as the BOE’s QE expansion and the Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s job protection scheme extension offered a double booster shot. GBP/USD trades modestly flat at 1.3133, looking to retest two-week highs of 1.3157 reached in early Asia. The sudden and strong lift-off in GBP that sent it a high of 1.3155 yesterday (05 Nov) and the subsequent strong daily closing at 1.3153 (+1.23%) was unexpected. While upward momentum has improved, GBP has to move and stay above the major resistance at 1.3200 before further sustained advance can be expected. EUR/USD is taking a bull breather, having rallied by 0.84% on Thursday to register the biggest single-day percentage gain since June 4. The pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day near 1.1824 but is up over 1.5% this week. October’s peak at 1.1880 is a solid resistance and while EUR could break this level, it is unlikely able to maintain a foothold above it. Next resistance is at 1.1915. Support is at 1.1785 but only a break of 1.1760 would indicate the current upward pressure has eased. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, with the result of the contentious U.S. presidential election still unknown and the possibility of a legal battle likely to lead to prolonged uncertainty. The Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 92.537. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 103.44, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7269.
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The GBP/USD pair rallied around 60-65 pips post-BoE announcement and shot to fresh session tops, around the key 1.3000 psychological mark, albeit lacking follow-through. The supporting factor, to a larger extent, was offset by a larger than expected increase in the size of the BoE's asset purchase program, which now stands at £875 billion, up from £745 billion prior. EUR/USD is set to test 1.15-1.20 range resistance as US election risk eases. The European Central Bank (ECB) assuring more PEPP and funding support should reduce regional lockdown fiscal blowout risks. EUR/USD could edge higher in the near-term, although a move to 1.1880 is not favoured for the time being. Further EUR strength is not ruled out but it is too soon to expect a move towards last month’s top at 1.1880. On a shorter-term note, 1.1855 is already quite a strong level. All in, the bias for EUR appears to be tilted to the upside with 1.1550 acting as a key support. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.312. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.38, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.7187.
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GBP/USD drops to the session low at 1.2920, down 0.4% intraday, while heading into Wednesday’s London open. The Cable earlier surged to 1.3140, before bouncing off 1.2934, while Incumbent US President Donald Trump is reported to have won Iowa, Texas, Florida and Ohio, thwarting Joe Biden’s hopes of scoring a major red state victory as the race for the White House again proves far tighter than the polls had indicated. EUR/USD has retraced almost all of Tuesday’s gains although it is currently trading off its early morning low at 1.1640. Given the risk of a double dip in economic activity in Europe, a dovish ECB and a delay over dispersing the EU’s Recovery Fund we see the shine as coming off the EUR, Rabobank reported, at this stage we retain our forecast of EUR/USD at 1.16 on a three-month view. The market focus will remain on the US political development, which, along with the broader market risk sentiment will continue to influence the USD price dynamics and infuse some volatility around the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY pairs. The Dollar Index was up 0.6% at 94.115. It had shed 0.9% on Tuesday, its biggest daily drop since late March as traders had bet on a clear cut victory for Democrat candidate Joe Biden. USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 104.91, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 1.3% to 0.7065.
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GBP/USD eyes a firm break above 1.2933 for bulls to take over. Potential falling wedge formation spotted on the hourly chart. Hourly RSI stays bullish, as all eyes remain on the US election. Cable’s decline does not rule out a potential retracement to the 1.2845 level in the next weeks. EUR/USD leaves behind the recent pessimism and retakes 1.1670. European markets opened Tuesday’s session with decent gains. US presidential elections will be the salient event on Tuesday/Wednesday. After bottoming out in the vicinity of the 1.1600 mark, EUR/USD appears to have met some buying interest and advances to the 1.1670 area, or 2-day highs. The dollar weakened in early European trade Tuesday, giving up some earlier gains, as traders look for a more neutral position ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 93.915 while USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.56.
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The GBP/USD pair added to its intraday losses and dived to near one-month lows, around the 1.2855 region during the early European session. The pair opened with a modest bearish gap on the first day of a new trading week in reaction to the imposition of second nationwide lockdown in the UK. Given the alarming pace of growth in new COVID-19 cases in the UK, Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a lockdown across England until December 2. A senior cabinet member said on Sunday that the lockdown could be extended, which, in turn, took its toll on the British pound. EUR/USD has been under pressure amid the increase in European coronavirus cases. EUR/USD has been under pressure amid the increase in European coronavirus cases. EUR/USD faces strong support around 1.1580. The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Monday, with more lockdowns in Europe on the back of the incessant rise in coronavirus cases and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election weighing on investor sentiment. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 94.142, after climbing 1.2% over the last week, its largest weekly percentage rise since late September. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 104.75, while the risk sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7011.
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GBP/USD has eroded the uptrend at 1.2928 and was last seen trading at 1.2915, down -0.1% on the day. Commerzbank, now signals the next supports at the June high of 1.2814 and the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2706. The pair struggled to capitalize on the previous day's late rebound of around 45 pips from near two-week lows and was seen oscillating in a range through the first half of the trading action on Friday. However, concerns about the economic fallout from the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases continued weighing on investors' sentiment. This was evident from a steep decline in the US equity markets, which extended some support to the greenback's relative safe-haven status. The greenback was further supported by Thursday's stronger US Q3 GDP growth figures. This, in turn, capped the upside for the GBP/USD pair. EUR/USD loses momentum and retests the mid-1.1600s against the backdrop of a persistent inflows into the safe haven universe. The outlook on EUR/USD still remains positive, however, and bearish moves are deemed as corrective only. The positive bias in the euro remains underpinned by auspicious results from domestic fundamentals. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.03% at 1.1669 and faces the next support at 1.1650 (monthly low Oct.29) followed by 1.1612 (monthly low Sep.25) and finally 1.1495 (monthly high Mar.9). The Dollar Index was up less than 0.1% at 93.998, after climbing to a near four-week high during the previous session, largely on the back of the euro’s drop. USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 104.41.
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GBP/USD is holding up better than other currency pairs as the cable looks to regain ground above the 1.3000 level. GBP/USD has eased back to, tested and held the near-term uptrend at 1.2928. While this holds, the market is capable of retesting the 1.3201 March high and the recent high at 1.3483. In this vicinity is the 1.3468 multi-year downtrend and if seen we would expect this to again hold and provoke failure. EUR/USD risks an extra losses below 1.1685 in the next weeks. The second wave of coronavirus is locking the euro to the downside – but traders have little time to consider the implications of the virus as the all-important US elections are set to rock markets. The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia, with fears over fresh lockdowns implemented in Europe to curb the incessantly rising number of COVID-19 cases and the prospects for the region’s further economic recovery. The U.S. Dollar Index inched down 0.07% to 93.418. The USD/JPY pair edged up 0.18% to 104.47, after the dollar dropped to its lowest level in more than a month against the safe-haven yen on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy later in the day and is widely expected to avoid changes to the current monetary settings.
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GBP/USD looks to extend its downside consolidation phase below 1.3050 into the European open, as the US dollar clings onto the overnight gains amid broad risk-aversion. EUR/USD continues to drop as Eurozone's biggest economies, France and Germany, consider imposing the economically-painful lockdown restrictions to counter the rising coronavirus cases. The pair is currently trading at 1.1778, representing a 0.13% drop on the day, having hit an eight-day low of 1.1769 early Wednesday. The currency pair is trading in the red for the third straight day, having faced rejection near 1.1860 on Monday. France is reportedly considering a one-month lockdown as the second wave of the coronavirus is showing no signs of slowing down. According to Reuters, Eurozone's economic powerhouse Germany also contemplates a measured lockdown as its health care system is close to breaking point. While these measures look less severe than the ones implemented in April/May, they could still harm Eurozone's already fragile economic recovery, resulting in a prolonged period of deflation. All things considered, the pressure on the European Central Bank to deliver more stimulus looks to be rising. As such, markets are offering euros. The sell-off will gather pace if the coronavirus numbers continue to rise. The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Wednesday, with traders turning away from riskier currencies given the current uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic as the U.S. presidential election draws near. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.2% at 93.138, while USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 104.19. Trading ranges are becoming more limited as growing wariness about the U.S. presidential election is starting to limit large currency movements. Polls show Democrat rival Joe Biden has a lead over Republican incumbent President Donald Trump, but many traders are nervous as the same polls failed to predict Trump's victory four years ago. A tight result could lead to legal battles over potential voting irregularities, delaying the outcome of the election and creating more uncertainty, which would likely weigh on the dollar. The former suggests caution due to the rise in the pandemic in Europe and the risk of the U.S. election outcome,” he added, but ”the constructive medium-term outlook and the possibility of missing out (on the rally) suggest that, despite the bumpy ride ahead in coming weeks, periods of risk assets coming under pressure should be one-off and not long-lasting. This means a prolonged USD strengthening trend seems unlikely.
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GBP/USD is possibly on the verge of a continuation bullish impulse and the bulls are encouraged by the amount of structure supporting the outlook. Bulls are waiting for bullish conditions to be confirmed. The 1.32 area is compelling on a test of 1.3080. EUR/USD is holding the higher ground around 1.1825 amidst persisting coronavirus concerns. The US dollar’s retreat saves the day for the EUR bulls, at the moment. Downward momentum has improved a tad and the bias for today is tilted to the downside. That said, 1.1770 is a strong support and may not be easy to break (minor support is at 1.1790). Resistance is at 1.1835 followed by 1.1860. The dollar edged lower in early European trade Tuesday, handing back some recent gains, although activity is starting to weaken as the U.S. presidential election draws near. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 92.985. USD/JPY was largely flat at 104.80, while USD/CNY was flat at 6.7110.
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GBP/USD pressured towards 1.3000 amid Brexit and virus woes. Dual Brexit and US fiscal stimulus talks continued to dominate cable's trading, resulting in choppy trading, an eventual breakout to the upside, and a retreat afterward. US politics are set to take over in the pre-elections week, while UK coronavirus cases and lockdowns will probably become more prominent. The EUR/USD pair finishes the week with gains around 1.1830, at the upper end of its latest range but still unable to define a trend. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.2% at 92.972, after dropping almost 1% last week. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 104.88.
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GBP/USD weighed down by broad US dollar strength. The pair is on a steady decline so far this Friday but holds above the 1.3050 level, as the US dollar remains broadly underpinned following the conclusion of the final Presidential election debate. Brexit talks resumed, differences on key issues still persist. Brexit, stimulus updates and key UK/US data in focus. UK Retail Sales and Preliminary Markit PMI reports due later in the session ahead for fresh incentives on the prices. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.18, down from the high of 1.1881 reached Wednesday. Despite the pullback, the pair is still up 0.72% this week. Investors are betting that the price of euro/dollar futures, which gauge short-term rate expectations, could fall as the Fed would have to raise rates as soon as 2023 if lawmakers in Washington approve more stimulus in the near term. EUR/USD could extend losses while heading into the weekend - more so, as the European Central Bank is under pressure to deliver more easing due to Eurozone's negative inflation. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 93.082, bouncing back from the seven-week low seen earlier in the week. However, it remains 0.6% lower for the week. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 104.72.
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GBP/USD consolidates the previous day’s heavy gains while declining to 1.3127, down 0.18% intraday, during the pre-London open trading on Thursday. The pair seems to follow the broad trend established by the US dollar pullback. EUR/USD corrects lower and hovers around 1.1840. The pair may firm within its 1.15-1.20 range as risk sentiment improves and the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep policy unchanged. Rising COVID-19 cases and restrictions should cap EUR gains, economists at Westpac inform. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, as traders warily studied the ongoing negotiations in Washington over a potential new U.S. stimulus package. The Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 92.713, rebounding a touch after falling to its lowest level since Sept. 2 overnight. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 104.64.
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GBP/USD tested 1.3020 but awaits a fresh catalyst for a sustained move higher. However, the persistent downbeat mood around the US dollar, in light of the renewed optimism over a likely US fiscal stimulus deal, continues to exert upward pressure on the cable. Technically, the daily closing above the 50-DMA barrier could provide the much-needed push to the bulls while also yielding a symmetrical triangle breakout on the daily sticks. The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate came in at +0.5% in September when compared to +0.2% booked in August while matching expectations of a +0.5% print. EUR/USD advances for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday and consolidates the upside momentum following the recent breakout of the interim hurdle at the 55-day SMA just below 1.1800 the figure. The focus of attention will be on the participation of ECB’s Christine Lagarde at an ECB Listens event. Commerzbank now has a positive stance and marks the initial resistance at 1.1871 followed by 1.1971 and 1.2015. The Dollar Index was down 0.3% at 92.787, falling to its lowest level for a month. USD/JPY was down 0.3% at 105.23.
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GBP/USD is in a downside consolidation phase in early Europe this Tuesday, hovering around 1.2950 awaiting a fresh update on Brexit for fresh impetus. The spot rallied as high as 1.3032 on expectations of a Brexit breakthrough ahead of the fresh round of talks between the EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost. The spot has confirmed a descending triangle breakout on the hourly chart, opening doors for a rally towards 1.3100. EUR/USD now looks set to test the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) located at 1.1795 after having risen by nearly 0.5% on Monday. FX Strategists at UOB Group now forecast EUR/USD to navigate within the 1.1690-1.1830 range in the next weeks. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Tuesday, with traders keeping a wary eye on the ongoing political discussions over a potential new U.S. stimulus package. The Dollar Index was up less than 0.1% at 93.445. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 105.53.
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GBP/USD is building on Friday’s sharp recovery from below 1.2900 so far this Monday, as the bulls remain hopeful of some positive developments from a fresh round of Brexit negotiations likely to be held between EU’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost. EUR/USD is trading around 1.17, at the bottom of the recent range. The steep increase in coronavirus cases in Europe is likely to keep undermining the euro while speculative interest fears an even slower economic comeback as restrictive measures returned. EUR/USD could slip back to the 1.1650 region in the next weeks, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. European markets have been lifted by comments from U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said on Sunday she was optimistic legislation on a wide-ranging coronavirus relief package could be pushed through before the election. A deal will have to be done very quickly though, with Pelosi setting a Tuesday deadline for Congress to pass the measures.Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 93.8727, following a 0.7% rise last week when a global surge in coronavirus cases and an impasse over the stimulus package prompted caution. USD/JPY was largely flat at 105.41, while USD/CNY rose 0.1% to 6.7024.
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50-DMA is the level to beat for the GBP/USD bulls. The cable teasing a symmetrical triangle breakdown on the daily chart. UK PM Johnson to decide Brexit fate on Friday. EUR/USD pair is trading largely unchanged on the day around 1.17. Europe seems to be losing the fight to keep their economies open as the Covid-19 virus spreads. Starting this weekend, Londoners will be banned from mixing with other households, and residents of Paris and other major French cities face a curfew for four weeks. Additionally, although German Chancellor Angela Merkel reported "some movement" on Thursday in talks between European Union leaders about a potential Brexit agreement, the two sides have barely made any progress this week and time is running very short. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, heading for its best week of the month as rising coronavirus cases prompt nervous traders to seek out this safe haven. The Dollar Index was up just 0.01% at 93.873, posting gains of around 0.8% this week, its best weekly performance since late September. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.33.
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GBP/USD is battling 1.3000, as the bulls take a breather ahead of the two-day European Union (EU) Summit, starting today. The 4-hour EUR/USD chart is showing that critical support at 1.1720 is in danger as the EUR/USD pair trades at its daily low of 1.1735 at the time of writing. Concerns that a resurgence in the Covid-19 pandemic could lead governments throughout Europe to shut down their economies again has hit the confidence of investors, particularly after the recent stock rally. Germany, France, the U.K., and others are in the process of instituting measures such as limited lockdowns, bar closures and other systems intended to reduce the spread of infection. This is occurring while doubts are emerging over the speed at which vaccines will be approved. Despite the global push for a Covid-19 vaccine, with dozens in clinical trials and hopes for initial inoculations this year, WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan reiterated Wednesday that mass shots were unlikely to be widely available in the near future. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday on safe haven inflows as coronavirus cases continue to mount and the idea of pre-election stimulus in the U.S. is officially consigned to the trash. The Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 93.483. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 105.28. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD dropped 0.7% to a one-week low of 0.7110, weighed by Australia’s central bank chief hinting at a possible rate cut or bond buying.
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GBP/USD has failed at its corrective target at 1.3070 and is extending Tuesday’s sell-off. The cable trades just above the 1.29 mark and Commerzbank expects to see further losses to 1.2445 and eventually targets 1.2250/00. The pair couldn’t crack 21-day EMA, an ascending trend line from September 25, which in turn joins bullish MACD to tease the buyers targeting at 1.3013. A downside break of 1.2935 can target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2868. EUR/USD trades lifeless near 1.1740 and strategists expect the 1.1700 level to attract. EUR lurched lower during NY hours and dropped to a low of 1.1729 before closing on a weak note at 1.1744. Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) placed its antibody test on hold due to potential safety concerns, just a day after Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) paused its Covid-19 vaccine trial because of a participant’s unexplained illness. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday, holding on to recent gains following doubts about how quickly a Covid-19 vaccine will come to the market, prompting a more risk averse trading environment. The Dollar Index was up marginally at 93.567. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 105.50.
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Euro heading below 1.16
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GBP/USD recorded fresh 5-week highs around 1.3080 at the beginning of the week on the back of renewed optimism surrounding the UK-EU Brexit negotiation. EUR/USD remains pressured around 1.1800 as market sentiment remains tilted to the risk-off mood on Tuesday. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 93.227, regaining a little ground after falling Friday to a three-week low of 92.997. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 105.37. European shares hovered at five-week highs on Tuesday following a three-day rally that was sparked by hopes of more U.S. stimulus, while Airbus slipped after JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) downgraded its rating on the stock. The pan-European STOXX 600 (STOXX) was flat, with gains for utilities (SX6P), real estate (SX86P) and telecoms (SXKP) stocks offset by declines in the travel and leisure (SXTP) and autos (SXAP) sectors.
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GBP/USD fails to extend Friday’s upside momentum despite staying above 1.3020. UK PM Johnson up for Australia-style trade deal if there’s no deal by October 15, pushes Germany to bridge the gap. Stricter virus-led lockdown conditions will be announced by the PM for tier-3 hotspots. EUR/USD gapped lower in Asia on renewed coronavirus concerns, trading at 1.1815.ECB's President Lagarde is likely to reiterate the central bank's dovish stance. The US treasury yield curve has steepened in a dollar-positive manner to the levels last seen in November 2016. Dollar Index was up 1% at 93.108, regaining a little ground after recording its biggest loss in six weeks on Friday, falling to a near-three-week low of 92.997. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.50.
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UK GDP arrived at +2.1% MoM in August vs. +4.6% expected. GBP/USD holds on to modest gains near 1.2950 post-data. EUR/USD looks north as the dollar takes a beating against most currencies. China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 54.8 in September, against August’s reading of 54, remaining in positive territory for a fifth consecutive month, suggesting the second largest economy in the world is quickly returning to health. Yuan's rally and risk-on action look to be weighing over the greenback. A continued rise in the US bond yields could stall the dollar sell-off. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.528, while USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.94.
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GBP/USD keeps previous day’s recovery moves from 1.2844. Pubs and restaurants in Northern England go off from next Monday with UK’s 14,162 new daily cases of COVID-19. EU keeps hardstand on fisheries, Tories threaten to leave talks on October 15. BOE’s Bailey will speak in an online panel discussion at the Single Resolution Board's annual conference. Cable’s prospect remains mixed and is now forecasted to trade between 1.2750 and 1.3000 in the short-term. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.562, while USD/JPY was largely flat at 105.97. EUR/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.1778. Rabobank, forecasts the EUR/USD pair trading at 1.17 next month as the US dollar is to see a short-covering of its positions amid volatility due to US Elections.
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The GBP/USD pair has failed on its initial test of the mid-September high at 1.3008. The market charted an outside day to the downside and although we are unable to rule out a slightly deeper move to 1.3070, this seems less likely, according to Commerzbank. "Should the market fail in the 1.3000/70 zone as expected, we should see further losses to 1.2445 and then 1.2250/00". EUR/USD is now seen navigating between 1.1640 and 1.1820 for the time being. The pair is currently trading near 1.1730, having hit a low of 1.1725. The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.19% to 93.922. The cancellation destroyed the sense of calm regained in the market after he was discharged from Walter Reed on Monday after being treated for COVID-19, and decreased risk appetite as hopes for the stimulus measures to be passed before the Nov. 3 presidential election evaporated. The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.06% to 105.68. 8:30am Halifax HPI m/m 1.50% vs 1.60% 1:10pm ECB President Lagarde Speaks 7:00pm FOMC Meeting Minutes
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GBP/USD trades modestly flat around 1.2985, stuck in a range around 1.2980-1.3000. EUR/USD now looks to 1.1830. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.500, while USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 105.69. Helping the ‘risk-on’ mood was renewed confidence that U.S. lawmakers may be close to a compromise over a new coronavirus relief package after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke by phone for about an hour Monday.
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The GBP/USD pair lifted above 1.2900 on headlines that the UK and EU will persist with Brexit negotiations, given the lack of material progress, we still see the 1.2950-1.3000 range as a cap for now. The optimism over US President Donald Trump’s potential discharge from the medical centre boosts the appetite for the risk assets at the expense of the safe-haven greenback. EUR/USD bulls await fresh impetus for the next leg up. Falling wedge breakout confirmed on the hourly chart. EUR bulls struggling to extend gains above 50-HMA at 1.1730. The dollar index was little changed at 93.789, while traders adjusted their positions in safe-harbour currencies. Against the safe-haven Japanese yen, the dollar rose 0.2% to 105.515 yen.
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The GBP/USD pair rallied over 100 pips from daily swing lows and jumped to the 1.2940 region during the early European session, albeit quickly retreated few pips thereafter. EUR/USD extends the erratic performance in the last sessions, although it manages well to keep business above 1.17 the figure for the time being. The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Friday, along with the Japanese yen, as U.S. President Donald Trump testing positive for the Covid-19 virus hit risk sentiment, resulted in demand for safe haven currencies. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 93.797, while USD/JPY fell 0.4% to 105.11, its lowest level this week. President Trump confirmed, via a tweet, that he and his wife Melania had contracted the Covid-19 virus, just a few hours after a top aide he had spent substantial time with this week had also tested positive. However, he continues to work as normal from the White House. DAX in Germany traded 0.8% lower, the CAC 40 in France fell 0.8% and the U.K.'s FTSE index dropped 0.7%. S&P 500 futures were down 1% . Futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.2% (NQc1). The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, was down 0.2% at 0736 GMT (MIWD00000PUS). Equinor ASA (OL:EQNR) stock fell 0.5% after the Norwegian oil and gas firm outlined plans to cut its exploration staff by about 30% globally by 2023 to reduce costs as the pandemic hits the industry hard. Shares in many of the oil majors have slumped, with BP (LON:BP), Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSa) and Repsol (OTC:REPYY) all hitting 52-week lows in early trading. By contrast, renewables specialist Orsted (OTC:DOGEF) and wind turbine maker Siemens Gamesa (MC:SGREN) hit new all-time highs. Rolls-Royce (LON:RR) slumped 6.8% after the aero engine maker's 5 billion pound recapitalization plan. U.S. crude futures traded 2.4% lower at $37.80 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 2.7% to $39.83. Both contracts fell more than 3% Thursday, and are on course for a second consecutive week of declines. Gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,915.70/oz.
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GBP/USD juggles with the recovery moves from 1.2913 between 1.2930 and 1.2940 while heading into the London open. The pair rises for the fourth consecutive day by crossing the 50-day EMA amid bullish MACD. A new test of EUR/GBP 0.9400 (2020 high) seems very possible in the coming weeks, at which point it would finally make sense to buy GBP looking for an eventual deal. EUR/USD has been advancing on high hopes for a US fiscal deal after falling by 1.82% in September, confirming its biggest single-month percentage decline since July 2019. The pair is debating between a break or bounce at the 1.1755 strong resistance. The dollar weakened in early European trade Thursday, falling to a one-week low as fresh hopes of new U.S. fiscal stimulus prompted traders to seek out the perceived riskier currencies. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.875, just off the one-week low of 93.680 hit earlier. Global shares tried to extend gains on Thursday on renewed hopes for fresh U.S. stimulus measures, but mounting uncertainty ahead of America's presidential election and technical problems in Japan kept gains in check. S&P500 (SPX) gained 0.83% and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 0.74%, even though they wrapped up September with their first monthly declines since March, when mandated coronavirus shutdowns slammed the economy. A spate of economic data mostly surprised to the upside, with the ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) National Employment index blowing past analysts' expectations and pending home sales surging to an all-time high.
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GBP/USD navigates within the 1.2750-1.3000 range despite UK final GDP revised up to-19.8% QoQ in Q2. EUR/USD now looks to 1.1800 and above. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 94.017 while USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.55. DAX futures contract in Germany traded 1% lower, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 0.9% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.7%. Chinese data released earlier Wednesday showed that the world’s second-largest economy's recovery continues to progress. The September manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5, beating August’s 51 reading, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 55.9 against August’s 55.2 - both remaining above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. U.K. GDP was revised to show a drop of 19.8% in the second quarter compared with the first, after the initial estimate showed a drop of 20.4%, while German retail sales rose a better than expected 3.% in August. Later in the session sees the release of German unemployment data for September, which will be studied carefully as an indicator of the strength of the economic recovery in Europe’s largest economy. Oil major Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSa) said it would cut up to 9,000 more jobs as it wrestles with a new environment of low prices and potentially lower long-term demand. U.S. crude futures traded 0.9% lower at $38.94 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 1.1% to $41.11. Both contracts closed more than 3% lower on Tuesday. Gold futures fell 0.6% to $1,891.45/oz.
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GBP/USD keeps bounces off 1.2836 to print a two-day winning streak. Cable is now forecasted to navigate within the 1.2750-1.3000 range in the next weeks. EU steps back from threats to drop trade and security talks, shows readiness to prepare a joint legal agreement. UK’s Gove refrains from entertaining the bloc’s demand over IMB, BOE’s Ramsden rules out negative rates. Brexit talks in Brussels will be up till Friday, BOE’s Carney, US Presidential Election debate and Fed speak also becomes important. EUR rebounded strongly from a low of 1.1613. The rebound has room to extend higher but any advance is expected to face stiff resistance at 1.1720. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 94.233, after retreating from a two-month high of 94.745 reached last week. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 105.64. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.1% lower, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.1% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. was flat. These benchmark cash indices all posted strong gains Monday, with the DAX starring, closing 3.2% higher. The German car sector may be in focus after Bloomberg reported that Uber (NYSE:UBER) is weighing up a purchase of Free Now, a ride-hailing joint venture between Daimler (OTC:DDAIF) and BMW (DE:BMWG). Oil prices edged lower Tuesday as concerns about the impact on demand from rising coronavirus cases took precedence over hopes that a new stimulus package may be in the offing. U.S. crude futures traded 0.6% lower at $40.34 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.6% to $42.63. Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,884.55/oz.
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GBP/USD probes the upper end of 1.2830/50 trading range. The Cable benefits from the weekend headlines suggesting brighter odds of success for the key Brexit talks. EUR/USD plummeted to 1.1615, its lowest level since late July. The pair has posted an interim top at 1.2011 and heads lower, with 1.1500 at sight, as the greenback’s positive momentum will likely extend heading into the next Nonfarm Payroll report release. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 94.552 while USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 105.36. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded 2.4% higher, the CAC 40 in France rose 1.9% and the U.K.'s FTSE index climbed 1.6%. ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) stock rose 5.7% after Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), the largest U.S. producer of iron ore pellets, agreed to buy its U.S. assets for about $1.4 billion. William Hill (LON:WMH) stock fell 12% to 272 pence, after soaring over 40% on Friday when it confirmed it had received proposals from U.S.-based private equity firm Apollo and casino giant Caesars (NASDAQ:CZR) Entertainment. Caesars said Monday that it may offer 272 pence per share, valuing the company at £2.9 billion. HSBC (LON:HSBA) climbed 10% after China’s Ping An Insurance increased its stake to 8% from 7.95%, seeing a bargain after the bank’s stock last week fell to the lowest since 1995. Diageo (LON:DGE) rose 5.5% after the world's largest liquor maker said performance has improved across the board, driven in large part by its U.S. business. Siemens Energy, meanwhile, got off to a sluggish start as the German engineering giant spun off its turbine business, which combines both renewables and its struggling thermal power division. Oil prices weakened Monday, with the major oil benchmarks on course to end the month lower, for the first time in many months, as rising coronavirus cases threaten hopes of a recovery in demand. U.S. crude futures traded 0.7% lower at $39.97 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.6% to $42.14. Brent is on track for its first monthly loss in six while WTI is headed for its first monthly drop since April. Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,863.30/oz.
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Cable is seen attempting a consolidation move ahead of a potential drop to the. Mid-1.2600s. The pair GBP/USD has remained side-lined near 1.2750 ahead of the London open. EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1675, representing a 1.4% decline on a week-to-date basis. The US dollar index trades modestly flat at 94.37, having partially recovered from the NY lows to 94.20 reached amid mixed US data and Wall Street bounce. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.1% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.4% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.4%. On Wall Street overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.2% higher, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4%. BMW (DE:BMWG) may be in the spotlight after the German luxury car maker agreed to pay $18 million to the Securities and Exchange Commission to settle claims that it had disclosed misleading sales figures. Fast fashion group Boohoo in the UK published the conclusions of its review into supply chain issues that had knocked its share price badly earlier in the summer. U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% lower at $40.29 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract was flat at $41.94. Brent is heading for a drop of over 2% this week, while U.S. crude is on track for a decline of around 1.5%. Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,872.20/oz.
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GBP dropped to a low of 1.2676 yesterday before rebounding to close little changed at 1.2726 (-0.06%). UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is set to unveil a new wage support scheme later this Thursday. GBP/USD caught a fresh bid wave on the above announcement, having spiked to 1.2737 session highs before reversing to near 1.2715. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1660, representing a 2.3% decline on a month-to-date basis. The pair has shed more than 200 pips in the last three days on a broad-based US dollar rally. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 94.505, around levels last seen two months ago. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.34. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.3% lower, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 1% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.9%. At the close in New York overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% to hit a new one-month low, while the S&P 500 fell 2.4%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 3%. Airbus may be in the spotlight following a Bloomberg report that Delta Air Lines is in talks with the European plane maker to delay the delivery of at least 40 aircraft that were set to be handed over this year. Oil prices weakened Thursday despite official data showing crude inventories falling by 1.6 million barrels last week, on concerns the economic recovery in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, is slowing. U.S. crude futures traded 0.6% lower at $39.65 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.4% to $41.60. Gold futures fell 0.6% to $1,858.05/oz.
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GBP/USD is currently trading just below the 1.27 hurdle whilst further GBP weakness is not ruled out but in view of the oversold conditions, according to FX analysts, the next support at 1.2650 is likely out of reach for now. GBP/EUR is trading at 1.0860 this morning, next support is at 1.0760 that we saw beginning of September which is the lowest since March. The conditions are also worsening in the UK where COVID-19 related deaths surge the most since July 14, with Tuesday’s death toll being 37. The EUR/USD pair has bounced off two-month lows of 1.1672, still remains vulnerable at 1.1683, down 0.18% on the day. EUR/USD could extend the decline to the 1.1630 level ahead of 1.1600 in the next weeks. The Dollar Index was up 0.2% at 94.237, climbing to a eight-week high, while USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 105.12. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.4% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 1% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 1%. Wall Street's Tuesday rebound was led by a 1.7% gain in the Nasdaq Composite, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 made more muted gains of 0.5% and 1% respectively. Oil prices fell Wednesday after a surprise rise in U.S. oil inventories added to persistent worries about fuel demand as a surge in coronavirus cases around the globe led to stricter containment measures. The industry body, the American Petroleum Institute, reported late Tuesday that crude oil inventories rose by 691,000 barrels in the week to Sept. 18, compared with forecasts for a drop of 2.3 million barrels. Official data is due out later Wednesday. U.S. crude futures traded 1.1% lower at $39.37 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.9% to $41.34. Gold futures rose 1,3% to $1,883.30/oz.
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GBP/USD looks to be back under pressure as the market is seeing dollar strength across the board. The pair is trading near to the 1.2780 daily low and a loss of the 1.2690 support is set to trigger a deeper fall to the 1.2250/00 zone, per Commerzbank. EUR/USD risks a further pullback to the 1.1695 level in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 93.727, climbing to a six-week high. USD/JPY was largely flat at 104.63. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.2% lower, but CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.6% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.6%. European stocks sold off sharply on Monday, with these three benchmark cash indexes all dropping over 3%. LVMH (PA:LVMH) may also be in the spotlight after a U.S. court set a January date for Tiffany's (NYSE:TIF) lawsuit against the French luxury goods conglomerate for trying to back out of its $16 billion deal to acquire the jeweler. Oil prices drifted lower Tuesday, continuing the previous session’s weakness despite Tropical Storm Beta proving less disruptive to the infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico than feared. However, persistent worries about fuel demand as coronavirus cases continue to flare up around the globe remain a drag. U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% lower at $39.51 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.1% to $41.41. Both oil benchmarks fell around 4% on Monday. Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,917.95/oz.
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GBP traded sideways between 1.2914 and 1.2999. The underlying tone has weakened and from here, GBP could drift lower to 1.2875 (minor support is at 1.2900). Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has yet to announce what would replace – if at all – the furlough scheme which expires next month. The specter of mass UK layoffs is worrying about the nation and markets. A gradual tapering of the scheme is likely, but without details, sterling could suffer. EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1825 and 1.1870 before settling a tad lower at 1.1837 (-0.08%). Momentum indicators are turning neutral and EUR could continue to trade in a quiet manner, expected to be between 1.1820 and 1.1885. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 92.862. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 104.34. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.6% lower, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 2%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.7%. HSBC (LON:HSBA) is likely to be in the spotlight Monday after slumping in Asian trading, with its shares falling to the lowest level since 1995. HSBC, along with Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF), is one of the banks accused of moving large sums of allegedly illicit funds over nearly two decades by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) will also be in focus after the pharma giant said on Saturday that its Covid-19 vaccine trial in the United States was still on hold, after a safety event was reported in its U.K. trial two weeks ago. Oil prices edged lower Monday despite another weather pattern emerging to threaten output in the Gulf of Mexico. In what has been an active hurricane season, Tropical Storm Beta has prompted some oil producers to evacuate offshore platforms in the region, just as they had been restarting their operations in the wake of Hurricane Sally. U.S. crude futures traded 0.6% lower at $41.09 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.75% to $42.92. Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,956.95/oz.
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GBP/USD has been rising amid fresh Brexit hopes and despite the Bank of England's dovish shift. On Friday, speculation about a new UK lockdown and data on both sides of the pond are eyed, the pair is trying hard to extend the recovery, attacking the psychological 1.30 mark. EUR/USD to surge towards 1.20 on a break above 1.1880. Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 92.823 while USD/JPY was largely flat at 104.70, but still on course for a gain of 1.5% over the week. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded flat, the CAC 40 in France fell 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was down 0.3%. Covestro (DE:1COV) stock soared 6.7% after Bloomberg reported that buyout firm Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) is weighing up the acquisition of the plastics manufacturer. Bayer (DE:BAYGN), which holds a 7.5% stake in Covestro, also outperformed, rising 0.3%. Caixabank (MC:CABK) gained 0.8% after its acquisition of state-owned lender Bankia (MC:BKIA), down 2%, was approved by both boards, potentially creating Spain's biggest domestic bank. That comes as their two biggest rivals, Banco Santander (MC:SAN) and BBVA (MC:BBVA), both plumb 52-week lows. Additionally, the London Stock Exchange (LON:LSE) rose 0.6% after it revealed it had entered into exclusive discussions with Euronext (PA:ENX), which gained 4.2%, in relation to the sale of the Borsa Italiana group. Man Group (LON:EMG) rose 0.7% after saying it will start a new share-buyback program of up to $100 million. U.S. crude futures traded 1.2% higher at $41.47 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract rose 1.1% to $43.78. Both benchmarks have seen gains of over 9% this week, the first positive week in three. Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,962.35/oz.
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GBP/USD staged a solid comeback on the 1.2900 level so far this Thursday, although the bulls now appear to lack follow-through ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision. EUR/USD erodes the four-month uptrend at 1.1826, scope for 1.1495 – Commerzbank; Danske Bank now see the EUR/USD range as shifting from 1.18-1.20 to being 1.17-1.19 but stick to their call of 1.23 in six-months time following Powell’s press conference which will likely mean the USD-negative reflation story is set to pause a bit longer. The Dollar Index was up 0.4% at 93.450, while the USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 104.99 after the Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at -0.1% and left its asset purchases unchanged, as widely expected. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded 1.1% lower, the CAC 40 in France fell 1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was down 0.8%. Next (LON:NXT) stock rose 2.6% after the U.K. fashion chain raised its profit outlook for the full year for a second time. It said business had proven "more resilient than we expected" in the first half, despite a 34% fall in sales and a pretax loss. Rivals Inditex (MC:ITX) and H&M (ST:HMb), had both reported a return to profitability in the latest three months. Trainline (LON:TRNT) also detailed the extent of the hit from the measures taken to curb the spread of Covid-19, with sales down 81% in the first half of fiscal 2021. That said, the U.K.-based company said trading started recovering in the second quarter, with the relaxation of travel restrictions. Its stock rose 2.1%. IG Group (LON:IGG) soared 5.6% after the online trading platform posted a substantial jump in first-quarter revenue, benefiting from high levels of trading activity during these turbulent times. Natixis (PA:BFCEp) stock dropped 2.3% after its H20 Asset Management arm had to write down the value of Windnorst bonds by some 60%. U.S. crude futures traded 0.8% lower at $39.84 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.7% to $41.91. Both benchmarks saw gains of close to 5% during the previous session. Gold futures fell 1% to $1,951.40/oz.
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GBP lacks firm directional bias and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses. GBP/USD holds steady below 1.2900 mark, BOE Readies for Action. EUR/USD keeps the consolidative fashion unchanged. Dollar Down Ahead of Fed Meeting, down 0.03% to 93.085, giving up some earlier gains. The USD/JPY pair was down 0.15% to 105.28. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded 0.1% higher, the CAC 40 in France rose 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was down 0.3%. Inditex (MC:ITX) stock climbed 5.6% after the fashion retailer returned to quarterly profit in the three months from May to July despite sales slumping as consumers stayed away from city centre shopping districts. This follows Swedish rival H&M (ST:HMb) beating quarterly profit forecasts on Tuesday, and could represent a rebound for the battered retail sector. H&M stock rose another 4.4% on Wednesday. Oil prices rose after the American Petroleum Institute detailed a big drop in U.S. stockpiles and Hurricane Sally continued to disrupt offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. crude futures traded 2% higher at $39.04 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract rose 1.7% to $41.22. Both benchmarks rose by more than 2% during the previous session. Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,973.75/oz.
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The GBP/USD pair is trading near daily highs just below the 1.29 level, up 0.36% on the day. The downtrend continues – with the latest upswing looking like a necessary correction before the next dive. Despite the supporting factor, the upside is likely to remain limited amid growing fears of a no-deal Brexit. EUR/USD has been extending its gains, buoyed by optimism about a vaccine. Brexit remains a risk factor for the euro. Contrary to last week's moves, price action is limited to the pound this time, yet a rapid slide in sterling may drag the common currency down with it. Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 92.920. USD/CNY traded 0.3% lower at 6.7856, after posting a 16-month low of 6.7793 earlier Monday. Helping the tone were the latest Chinese economic data, suggesting the second-largest economy in the world was recovering from the Covid-19 hit. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.4% higher, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 0.1%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.4%. OPEC downgraded its oil demand forecast for both this year and the next due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, while U.K.-based oil giant BP (NYSE:BP) said the era of oil-demand growth is over. U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% lower at $37.24 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.2% to $39.55. Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,975.60/oz.
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GBP/USD to bounce from 200-DMA at 1.2735 ahead of further losses – Commerzbank. Goldman Sachs says pound levels now attractive. EUR/USD to see further gains as markets are upbeat after a turbulent week, trading around 1.1850. Bulls eye initial resistance at 1.1875. The U.S. Dollar Index edged down 0.16% to 93.192 this morning and rolled over to the December contract on Sunday. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 1% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.5%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.4%. AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) announced Saturday that it had resumed phase 3 trials of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate, which it is developing with the University of Oxford, after the relevant U.K. authorities gave their approval. Additionally, a day later, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) CEO Albert Bourla said the company’s own candidate, co-developed with German drug maker BioNTech, has a “good chance” of submitting key data from late-stage trials by the end of October. Euronext (PA:ENX) will be in focus after saying Monday that it has submitted a non-binding offer to acquire Borsa Italiana from London Stock Exchange Group (LON:LSE). This is set to spark a takeover battle for the Italian exchange as Deutsche Boerse (DE:DB1Gn) submitted an offer on Friday. Oil prices strengthened Monday as another fierce storm in the Gulf of Mexico caused rigs to shut down production. U.S. crude futures traded 0.5% higher at $37.53 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract rose 0.3% to $39.93. Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,957.20/oz.
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The GBP/USD pair held on to its modest gains around the 1.2800 region and had a rather muted reaction to the UK macro data dump, after falling into the 1.2775-70 area last night. The pair managed to gain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the previous day's steep decline of over 250 pips. It is worth recalling that the GBP/USD pair on Thursday witnessed a dramatic turnaround from the 1.3035 region and nosedived to sub-1.2800 levels, or seven-week lows. EUR/USD is up for the third consecutive session on Friday, extending the rebound from lows in the 1.1750 region recorded earlier in the week. The pair managed to briefly surpass the key 1.19 barrier following the unexpected upbeat message from the ECB yesterday. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.285, the USD/JPY pair inched up 0.02% to 106.16. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded 0.2% lower, the CAC 40 in France dropped 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was up 0.1%. Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) stock rose 0.3% after announcing that chief executive Jean-Sébastien Jacques, who has led the mining giant since 2016, will step down after the company destroyed an Aboriginal heritage site in Australia while developing a new mine. Swiss frozen baked goods maker Aryzta (SIX:ARYN) jumped 11% after it said it was in advanced talks with private equity firm Elliott Advisors over a takeover deal. French telecoms company Altice NV (AS:ATCA) surged 26% as its founder Patrick Drahi moved to take it private after an alarming stock slump this year. U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% lower at $37.27 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.3% to $39.96. Both major benchmarks are down around 6.5% for the week and headed for a second week of declines. Gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,951.15/oz.
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Sterling continues to weaken this week as market participants move quickly to price in more of a Brexit risk premium. The pound has weakened sharply in recent days resulting in EUR/GBP rising back towards the 0.9100-level and GBP/USD towards the 1.3000-level. Ireland's PM Martin said that 'where there is a will there is a way' when questioned about the Brexit deal. EUR/USD rises 0.24% to trade at 1.1830, buoyed by the ECB’s economic optimism and broad dollar weakness. Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 93.090, with USD/JPY pair inched down 0.06% to 106.11. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.3% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. underperformed, falling 0.2%. Overnight in the U.S., the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index posted its steepest rise in more than four months, gaining 2.7%, to halt a three-session slump that had cast doubt over the valuations of the mega cap tech stocks which had driven the market’s strong recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6% and the S&P 500 climbed 2%, in conjunction. Oil prices slipped back Thursday, as a rise in U.S. crude inventories prompted concerns about faltering demand just as the peak driving season comes to an end. U.S. crude futures traded 0.2% lower at $37.97 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.1% to $40.75. Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,956.70/oz.
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GBP/USD seesaws in a choppy range between 1.2920/40. AstraZeneca, China data news trigger risk reset. EUR/USD has reversed higher from significant support at 1.1757. Euro bulls may have a hard time holding on to gains. Dollar firms, yen up as tech selloff hits FX. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.2% higher, CAC 40 futures in France fell 0.2%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. dropped 0.4%. The sell-off in big tech stocks continued Tuesday, resulting in large losses overnight on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.3%, or 632 points. The S&P 500 was down 2.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped 4.1% into correction territory, with losses of about 10% in the past three days. The international benchmark Brent contract trade below $40 a barrel for the first time since late June. U.S. crude futures traded 0.3% lower at $36.66 a barrel, while gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,935.95/oz.
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The pound has continued to underperform amidst more risk-averse trading conditions. It has resulted in EUR/GBP rising back towards the 0.9000-level. Cable could gradually return to the 1.3100 region in the next week. EUR/USD is showing some signs of recovery following five consecutive daily pullbacks and looks to regain upside momentum above 1.1800. On the flip side, interim support emerges at 1.1750. The dollar index was up 0.4% at 93.062. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.2% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.3%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.4%. European stock markets are seen opening higher Tuesday, with expectation growing ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting of the European Central Bank. However, investors will be keeping a wary eye on the U.S. tech sector as Wall Street returns from holiday. U.S. crude futures traded 1.7% lower at $39.09 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.1% to $42.00. Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,940.30/oz.
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GBP/USD faces a mixed outlook, a break of the low at 1.3176 appears unlikely. Resistance is at 1.3290 but the stronger level is at 1.3330. EUR/USD extends its overnight range play below mid-1.1800 into the European session. Analysts are focused on the four-month uptrend at 1.1732 as a loss of this level will introduce scope for a slide towards the 55-day ma at 1.1620. Dollar Index was up 0.3% at 92.957. Trade is likely to be thinned due to the U.S. Labour Day holiday. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.3% lower, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.6%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.4%. Oil prices dropped Monday, hitting their lowest levels since July, after Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, cut its October official selling price for the Arab Light crude it sells to Asia by the biggest margin since May. The market remains oversupplied despite the efforts of the top producers to rein in production as demand still remains curtailed by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. crude futures traded 1.8% lower at $39.04 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 1.6% to $42.00. Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,935.80/oz.
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GBP/USD drops to 1.3328, down 0.17% on a day, while heading into the London open on Thursday. In doing so, the Cable extends the previous day’s losses, piled mainly due to the downside comments from the BOE members, Brexit pessimism and the broad US dollar recovery. EUR/USD is down for the third consecutive session on Thursday, coming under renewed and strong selling pressure in response to the pick-up in the demand for the greenback and profit taking in the riskier assets. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.2% at 93.058, moving around 1% above the 28-month low it hit against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, and threatening its first back-to-back daily gains since June.
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GBP/USD drops to 1.3328, down 0.17% on a day, while heading into the London open on Thursday. In doing so, the Cable extends the previous day’s losses, piled mainly due to the downside comments from the BOE members, Brexit pessimism and the broad US dollar recovery. EUR/USD is down for the third consecutive session on Thursday, coming under renewed and strong selling pressure in response to the pick-up in the demand for the greenback and profit taking in the riskier assets. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.2% at 93.058, moving around 1% above the 28-month low it hit against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, and threatening its first back-to-back daily gains since June.
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GBP/USD: Keeps losses from yearly top below 1.3400, BOE’s Bailey eyed. EUR/USD: Ingredients are in place for a resumption of the rally. Dollar buoyed by upbeat U.S. economic data.
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GBP/USD clocks in fresh 2020 high above 1.3400, eyes UK/US PMIs, Brexit talks. EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.20, a two-year high. In the long-term, a close above 1.2015 would target 1.2630 the 200-month MA. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.3% at 91.860, having earlier reached a two-year low of 91.773.
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GBP/USD defies the previous day’s pullback from yearly high of 1.3284, stays bid near intraday top. Brexit woes, surge in virus cases at home mostly ignored as US dollar trims Thursday’s gains. BOE’s Bailey to be the second key central banker at Jackson Hole after Fed’s Powell played well. EUR/USD is still expected to navigate within the 1.1740-1.1930 range for the time being. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.4% at 92.653.
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GBP/USD extends the Asian consolidative mode into the European session on Thursday, having witnessed a sharp rise to 1.3220 levels in the US last session. EUR/USD is posting modest gains in the 1.1840 region. US Initial Claims, flash Q2 GDP figures next of note in the docket. The dollar edged lower in early European trade Thursday, with investors looking to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for guidance as to how the central bank might alter its policy framework to help the U.S. recovery. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 92.942.
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An upside break of 1.3200 for GBP/USD will challenge the monthly high, also the yearly top, near 1.3270 and December 31, 2020 peak surrounding 1.3285. The buying interest around the single currency is weakening on Wednesday and dragging EUR/USD lower. The pair is currently trading at 1.1818, representing a 0.125 decline on the day, having clocked a high of 1.1844 on Tuesday. The dollar nursed losses against most currencies on Wednesday as traders braced for U.S. data expected to show a slowdown in durable goods orders and a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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The GBP/USD pair lost more than 100 pips on Friday and staged a rebound at the start of the week. However, the pair lost its momentum after climbing to 1.3150 area and erased all of its daily gains. As of writing, the pair was down 0.15% on a daily basis at 1.3068. The EUR/USD pair posted weekly losses for the first time since mid-June last week but staged a rebound during the first half of the day on Monday. However, the pair met resistance near 1.1850 and erased its daily gains. As of writing, EUR/USD was virtually unchanged on the day at 1.1798. US Dollar Index (DXY) to drop below 93.00 during the first half of the day and helped GBP/USD edge higher. During the American trading hours, rising US Treasury bond yields helped the USD gather strength and lifted the DXY to a daily high of 93.30. At the moment, the DXY is up 0.06% on the day at 93.26 and the 10-year US T-bond yield is up more than 2%.
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GBP/USD plummets to session lows, around 1.3100 mark amid notable USD demand. EUR/USD extends slide to weekly lows near 1.1750, about to end the 8-week streak. The greenback is the top performer on Friday. The DXY is up 0.50%, trading above 93.50, the highest intraday level since Monday.
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GBP/USD now seen between 1.3000 and 1.3230 – UOB.EUR/USD goes for a small break above 1.20 for the rest of the year but they think consolidation around 1.20 is the most likely outcome. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, helped by the Federal Reserve offering few clues that it intends to take a more dovish approach to help the U.S. economic recovery in the near future.
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UK CPI rose 1.0% YoY in July as compared to +0.6% expected. Meanwhile, the core inflation gauge (excluding volatile food and energy items) also surpassed expectations and came in at +1.8% YoY during the reported month, up from the 1.4% increase in June. GBP/USD could now advance to 1.3340 in the near-term – UOB. EUR/USD faced rejection above 1.1950 during Tuesday's Asian trading hours, as the dollar sell-off suddenly stalled despite the risk-on rally in the Asian stocks. The dollar struggled to recoup heavy overnight losses on Wednesday after it slipped to 27-month low the previous session as uncertainties about an economic recovery and the U.S. fiscal stimulus package weighed. The AUD/USD pair inched down 0.05% to 0.7237 while the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.08% to 0.6604. The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.01% to 6.9219, with U.S.-China tensions continuing to escalate.
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GBP/USD seesaws in a choppy range between 1.3120 and 1.3137, currently around 1.3128. EUR/USD faces further upside if close above the 1.1915 level. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.22% to 92.642.
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GBP/USD has been retreating amid diverging disease curves across the Atlantic, yet other factors such as rising US yields and worries about Britain's furlough scheme were also in play. Cable is seen navigating within the 1.2950-1.3160 range for the time being. EUR/USD rally looks overdone as per technical indicators, however, a notable pullback could still remain elusive, as a fiscal impasse in Washington is likely to keep the dollar bulls at bay. The pair is trading at 1.1860 at press time, representing a 0.17% gain on the day. The weekly chart relative strength index is hovering above 70, indicating overbought conditions for the first time in over 2.5 years. The dollar was down on Monday morning, but capped its losses after a meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials, originally scheduled for Saturday, was delayed. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.07% to 93.023.
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GBP popped to a high of 1.3125 before dropping back down. Momentum indicators are turning ‘neutral’ and for today, GBP is likely to consolidate, expected to be between 1.3010 and 1.3110. EUR/USD nears 1.18 support despite bulls control. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.235, set to continue a seven-week losing streak. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 106.84
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GBP/USD snaps two-day losing streak, capped around 1.3075 off-late. GBP/USD faces strong resistance at 1.3115. Germany’s new cases continue to rise by over 1000. Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn: we are worried about the rise in the coronavirus cases but are confident about the health system. EUR/USD is off the highs but trades well bid above 1.1800 amid a broadly weaker US dollar and negative Treasury yields.Dollar Index was down 0.3% at 93.157. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 106.72.
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GBP/USD off lows, still on the defensive below mid-1.3000s post-UK macro data. EUR/USD is holding the lower ground near 1.1715, down 0.18% on a daily basis. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.13% to 93.765 and the USD/JPY pair was up 0.14% to 106.62.
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GBP/USD struggles for direction near 1.3070 post-UK data. EUR/USD: Wind blows strongly in favour of the dollar and moderately against the euro. The US dollar has been declining steadily, with the dollar index (DXY) falling by 9% since the year’s high in March.
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GBP/USD picks up the bids near 1.3070, up 0.16% on a day, while heading into the London open on Monday. The Cable registered the biggest losses since June 24 on Friday. EUR/USD is trading around 1.1765, after Friday's 0.78% decline, the biggest single-day drop in over four months. Monday's 4-hour chart is painting a mixed picture with critical support looming at 1.17. It’s shaping up to be another rough day for Turkish markets. The lira, which sank to a record low last week as the central bank abandoned some of the policies that had underpinned it for much of this year, extended its declines Monday. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Monday, following Friday’s better-than-expected employment report. However, gains are likely to be short-lived as doubts remain about the U.S. economic recovery.
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GBP/USD losses momentum at the 1.3165 five-year resistance line. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1844, representing a 0.28% decline on the day, having failed to keep gains above 1.19 on Thursday. The greenback traded 0.32% higher which has dropped to the fresh lows since May 2018 the previous day.
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GBP/USD has hit 1.3183, the highest since March, showing that the BoE's decision includes powerful punches, propelling the pound. GBP/USD has hit a daily peak of 1.3183 – the highest since March – before consolidating its gains. Cable may continue higher after the BoE's upbeat message, potentially breaking above 1.32. UOB Group noted EUR/USD could advance to 1.20 on a close above 1.1930 in the next weeks. The dollar's index was flat at 92.814, having fallen more than 0.5% in the previous session to approach its two-year low of 92.539 marked last Friday.
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GBP/USD gained further losses on a breakdown of the 1.2970 level overnight however snapped the losing streak ahead of UK Services PMI coming out this morning and Bank of England Monetary Policy Report tomorrow. The pair also cheers the broad US dollar weakness due to the government’s failure of announcing a new relief package from the coronavirus pandemic, finding support at 1.3070 heading into this morning’s European open. The Telegraph reported that the UK chancellor Sunak could hike business rates for 'most valuable properties'. “Currently, the levy is not charged on the first £125,000 of the property selling price, with a 2 percent rate up to £250,000 and 5 percent on the next £675,000”. Analysts see Sterling positive from the news even though fears of the lager wave are somehow expected as British schools are about to open. The British currency, blast past 1.3080 and surged to a high of 1.3170 last Friday, is now testing fizzled upside momentum below 1.31 before the economic data at 9:30 London Time. While we have expected GBP to strengthen since 1.2670 (around two weeks ago), we held the view that the Pound could possibly to move up but limited at 1.3150. The subsequent rapid pull-back has diminished the uptrend impetus significantly and this coupled with overbought conditions suggest the rally in GBP could be coming to an end soon. GBP/EUR was lower by 0.3% at 1.1070 as of 8am London Time. Today’s losses take the exchange rate lower for the weekly by 0.35%. EUR/USD has now moved into a consolidation theme, likely between 1.16 and 1.19. The pair rises to 1.1816 during the Asian session overnight, extending the previous day’s establishment to hit a three-day high as the US dollar weakens across the board. Having said that, the euro/dollar buyer remain cautious ahead of the much-awaited US job data releasing on Friday. Analysts at Danske Bank offer their short-term outlook on EUR/USD, considering Fed’s reflation narrative, which will keep the greenback pressured. Worries over virus developments outside the US have started to surface, so is now the time to get EUR negative again? We doubt that we will witness the large-scale closures seen during the spring and yesterday's price action suggests that one probably needs to look for US rate rises and/or tech outperformance to get very negative on EUR/USD short term. The Eurozone Retail Sales and Services PMIs could entertain the pair traders before Friday’s US data. While the 1.1700-1695 area restricts the pair’s near-term downside, bulls may pause for a check around 1.1910 before attacking the 1.2000 threshold. The greenback continued its drop yesterday in what may turn out to be very temporary recovery. Pandemic woes in the US whilst ten-year Treasury yields continued their drop, sliding more than 6 percent. Economists predict that the US economy could fall off a cliff if the US administration does not offer a plan after stimulus package that ended on Friday. The early consensus for the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to recede from 2,369K to 1,500K on Friday, which in-turn can extern additional downward pressure on the greenback. Over 40% of the renters in the States are reportedly at risk of eviction if they cannot pay their rent. It is worrying that the Congress will agree on a further stimulus by the end of this week. The non-manufacturing ISM and ADP scheduled for release this afternoon, where we are more likely to see dollar negative signals if the figures come out as market expectation. The dollar index is trading 0.3% lower at 93.067 not far away from the two-year low of 92.523 registered last week. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.64 whilst AUD/USD continued its upward trend at 0.7184 testing a one-year high of 0.7220.
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GBP/USD bears catch a breather after a two-day losing streak, pullback from 1.3000 be the key. GBP/USD stays depressed following the break of an eight-day-old rising trend line. Failures to cross March month’s high, lower high formation favour sellers. Bulls seek a clear break of 1.3200 to extend the previous upside. EUR/USD is fighting with the 1.1780 resistance as Tuesday's 4-hour chart is showing the currency pair bounced off 1.17, a critical support. On the flip side, the 1.1735 level is the first support seen. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.442. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 106.05.
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GBP/USD has hit the highest since March amid a massive dollar sell-off and the cable has stabilized under 1.31 after experiencing high volatility. EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1755, down -0.17% on the day, after having hit a low of 1.1740 during the Asian trading hours. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.11% to 93.535.
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GBP/USD rises to 1.3130, up 0.26% on a day, and is on course for the five-year resistance line at 1.3175. EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1892 at press time, having put in a 25-month high of 1.1905 earlier on the day. Dollar Index was down 0.4% at 92.648, having fallen as low as 92.523, a new two-year low.
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GBP/USD is on the back foot as the Federal Reserve's dovish decision triggered a false break above 1.30. EUR/USD could move beyond 1.1830 in the near-term – UOB. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 93.498, recovering a touch from the 93.273 level seen earlier, its lowest level in more than two years.
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GBP has moved away from last key resistance $1.2520, climbing to the 1.29 level overnight. The euro obtains the smile and pushes the pair EUR/USD back to the mid-1.1700s. The dollar index this morning is trading 0.2% lower at 93.507, not far removed from the 93.448 low last seen in May 2018. Dollar/Yen is down 0.1% at 104.97.
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GBP/USD revisits sub-1.2900 area amid US dollar pullback. EUR/USD drops to 1.1722 from 1.1773 on broad-based dollar recovery. Dollar Index was up 0.2% at 93.810. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 105.58
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The heavily offered tone surrounding the USD assisted GBP/USD to add to last week’s gains. The bullish bias around the European currency remains well and sound for yet another session on Monday, this time lifting EUR/USD to fresh tops above 1.17 the figure. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.47% to 93.933, continuing its slide from Friday.
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GBP/USD has been benefiting from upbeat UK retail sales but US-China spat is taking their toll. EUR/USD regains 1.16 as German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI betters estimates with 50.0 in July. The Dollar Hits 22-Month Low Amid Recovery Concerns, trading at 94.627.
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GBP/USD bounces off intraday low of 1.2723, stays inside 20-pips range since late-Wednesday. EUR/USD stays bid and looks to retest the 1.1600 mark. The dollar weakened in early European trade Thursday, with signs of a recovery in Europe boosting sentiment despite heightened tensions between the U.S. and China. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 94.808, just off the four-month low of 94.773 seen earlier.
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The GBP/USD pair is heading back towards 1.2700 amid a fresh round of selling seen in the US dollar across the board, as the risk sentiment improves in Europe. EUR/USD jumped to fresh multi-month highs on Tuesday after the European Union reached a historical deal on the €750 billion coronavirus recovery fund. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 95.718, having earlier traded at a more than four-month low of 95.687. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 107.31
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The GBP/USD pair is heading back towards 1.2700 amid a fresh round of selling seen in the US dollar across the board, as the risk sentiment improves in Europe. EUR/USD jumped to fresh multi-month highs on Tuesday after the European Union reached a historical deal on the €750 billion coronavirus recovery fund. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 95.718, having earlier traded at a more than four-month low of 95.687. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 107.31
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GBP/USD drops to 1.2520, down 0.37% on a day while heading into the London open on Monday. EUR/USD has started the week on a positive foot and is lifting to the 1.1465/70 band, new three-month peaks Dollar Index was flat at 95.925, near the four-month low it posted last week, while USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 107.27.
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GBP/USD escalates the recovery moves to 1.2570, up 0.15% on a day, while heading into the London open on Friday. EUR/USD is showing no changes on the day as trades at 1.1384. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.01% to 96.278.
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GBP/USD has been on the back foot as weaker parts of economic indicators take priority. US Retail Sales, BoE speculation and coronavirus figures are of interest. Support awaits at 1.2535, which is where the 200 SMA hits the price. EUR/USD is managing well to keep business around the 1.14 neighbourhood despite posting small losses so far in the second half of the week. The dollar index is trading at the 96 level however it is expected to weaken about 2% to 94.1 by the second quarter of next year according to Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs expected a weak dollar too in a report this week.
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The GBP/USD pair maintained its bid tone near session tops, around the 1.2580 region and moved little post-UK inflation figures. EUR/USD has backed off from one-month high at 1.1422 reached during the early Wednesday. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 96.093.
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GBP/USD has retreated from the 1.2650 level to 1.2500 level. EUR/USD targets the June and July highs at 1.1374/1.1422 – Commerzbank. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 96.547. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 107.31.
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GBP/USD takes the bids near 1.2655, up 0.27% on a day. EUR/USD is fast closing on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) hurdle at 1.1333 The dollar index slipped 0.2% in early Monday trade to 96.452.
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GBP/USD consolidates the downside as the cable was capped by the 1.263/93 resistance. The single currency has come under renewed selling pressure in the last couple of days, forcing EUR/USD to recede from multi-week tops around 1.1370 to Friday’s lows near 1.1250. DXY was up 0.3% at 96.915.
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GBP/ USD refreshes three-week high while extending the latest pullback from 1.2600 as the cable is trading around 1.2645, up 0.27% on a day. EUR/USD pair is gaining 0.23% at 1.1355 though Thursday's 4-hour chart is pointing to; USD/CNY pair slid 0.2% to 6.9878.
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GBP/USD holds up around 1.2550 ahead of Sunak's speech, Brexit Optimism, EUR/USD capped under 1.13 as Lagarde hints at inaction, Dollar Index Up.
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GBP/USD recovers from 1.2490 as US dollar fades upside momentum. EUR/USD is now trading below the 1.13 level after having failed at the 1.1350 resistance for a third time. The dollar index, was up 0.2% at 96.896.
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GBP/USD extends Friday’s recovery gains from 1.2438 amid broad US dollar weakness to 1.2496 as registers 0.13% gains. EUR/USD climbs to fresh 2-day tops near the 1.1300 mark; Dollar Index down.
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GBP/USD drops 0.13% to 1.2453, having hit a daily low of 1.2438. EUR/USD: Base at the 1.12 level suggests another leg higher – OCBC The dollar index was down 0.1% at 97.203, while USD/JPY was flat at 107.50.
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Euro zone is expected to show a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.7% from 7.3% in April. U.S. crude futures traded 1.2% higher at $40.30 a barrel. The international benchmark Brent contract rose 1.3% to $42.58. Gold futures were largely flat at $1,780.25/oz. GBP/USD has just emerged above 1.25, up 0.25% on a day EUR/USD picks up pace and approaches 1.1300 Dollar on the defensive in early European trade Thursday.
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GBP/USD: Positive comments from Barnier unable to demolish the 1.24 barrier – OCBC Bank EUR/USD: Hardy double-bottom at 1.1190 provides support
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EUR/USD traded at 1.1216, down 0.2%. GBP slides under $1.23 ahead of UK PM Johnson speech; US Dollar edges higher before quarter-end GBP / USD 1.2261 GBP / EUR 1.0932 EUR / USD 1.1219 GBP / JPY 132.08 GBP / CHF 1.1673 GBP / CAD 1.6770 GBP / AUD 1.7884 GBP / NZD 1.9150 GBP / CNY 8.5901 GBP / SGD 1.7119 GBP / ZAR 21.161
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Europe Edges Higher; DAX Outperforms Airbus stock climbed 1.3% despite a 40% drop forecast Oil prices fell back; Chesapeake Energy to seek bankruptcy protection U.S. crude futures traded 1.6% lower Lagarde Says The Worst Is Over. Time To Panic? Sterling on track for a dismal month. Euros zipping off the presses. Dollar up on fear factor. GBP / USD 1.2360 GBP / EUR 1.0985 EUR / USD 1.1250 GBP / JPY 132.50 GBP / CHF 1.1710 GBP / CAD 1.6880 GBP / AUD 1.7060 GBP / NZD 1.9200 GBP / CNY 8.7500 GBP / SGD 1.7210 GBP / ZAR 21.305
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FX MARKET REPORT 24.06.2020 Wednesday
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FX MARKET REPORT 23.06.2020 Tuesday
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FX MARKET REPORT 22.06.2020 Monday
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Euro Weekly 19.06.2020
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Sterling Weekly 19.06.2020
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FX MARKET REPORT 19.06.2020
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FX MARKET REPORT 18.06.2020 Thursday
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FX MARKET REPORT 17.06.2020 Wednesday
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FX MARKET REPORT 16.06.2020 Tuesday
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FX MARKET REPORT 15.06.2020 Monday
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Sterling Weekly 12.06.2020
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FX MARKET REPORT 12.06.2020 Friday
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FX MARKET REPORT 11.06.2020 Thursday
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FX MARKET REPORT 09.06.2020 Tuesday
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Sterling Weekly 05.06.2020
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FX MARKET REPORT 04.06.2020 Thursday
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FX MARKET REPORT 03.06.2020 Wednesday
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FX MARKET REPORT 20.05.2020 Wednesday
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