Simply Economics: Recent Episodes
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Financial markets remain volatile and seemingly at the mercy of the latest inflation data. At the same time, diverging performances among the major economies continue to provide scope for a broader decoupling of central bank monetary policies.
In recent weeks, speculation about U.S. interest rate cuts this year has shifted from multiple reductions to higher-for-longer and, in some quarters, even to no any ease at all. So, what is the most likely scenario now?
It’s taken them 17 years to do it but the BoJ has finally raised key interest rates. Max Sarto, Econoday’s Japan expert, discusses what they did and what it means for the economy and financial markets.
Many central banks still seem to attach more risks to easing too early than too late. And while that will reflect the perceived economic fallout from either action, the prospective impact on policy credibility should not be ignored.
So far in 2024, the major central banks have resisted pressure in financial markets for early interest rate cuts. Pushback in some quarters has become more vocal so just how long will it be before key rates are lowered?
Much like 2022, there can’t be many forecasters unhappy to see the back of 2023. Nonetheless, with crystal ball in hand, here’s what the Econoday team think will be driving global financial markets in 2024.
This year has produced the usual string of surprises for global financial markets. The Econoday team reflect on which of these shocks had the most important impact on international investors.
Financial markets are increasingly anticipating interest rate cuts in 2024 despite many central banks sounding much more cautious. The Econoday team looks at what the economic data suggest will happen
In the face of extreme monetary tightening abroad, speculation was rife that the BoJ might finally be forced to follow suit yesterday. In practice, such talk proved overly aggressive. Max Sato and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what actually happened and what it means.
It took a while, but investors now seem to accept that many central banks will be keeping key interest rates at high levels for longer than originally expected. And with that, comes increased downside risk to financial markets and economic growth. The Econoday team discuss the potential fallout.
After the recent round of central bank announcements, hopes are building that many tightening cycles may finally be nearing an end. However, with prices up around 30 percent since last June, the oil market could yet mean some unwelcome upside surprises in future inflation reports
Yield curves are inverted across North America, much of Europe and parts of the Southern Hemisphere but investors are split over what happens next to the global economy. Is a downturn just around the corner or can we look forward to a soft landing?
Over the last couple of days, we’ve seen key interest rates hiked in the Eurozone, left on hold in the U.S. and cut in China. All of which means that the global economic outlook is as complicated as ever. The Econoday team pull it all together.
Taken together with the latest raft of central bank announcements, the recent deluge of real economy and inflation updates has given investors plenty to chew on. Here’s Econoday’s take on what it all means for the global economic outlook and financial markets
Recent interest rate hikes by several major central banks clearly underline the determination of the monetary authorities to get inflation back under control. However, for now, QT may have to run alongside central bank liquidity injections to reassure investors that another global financial crisis is not just around the corner.
Despite some generally hawkish central bank statements this week, financial markets apparently remain convinced that official interest rates will be falling before year-end. So, who’s right and does the disconnect matter? Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss.
Market reaction to this month’s data underscores just how uncertain investors are about the global economic outlook. And this means that asset prices are likely to remain particularly sensitive to the higher frequency data, at least until the picture becomes clearer.
Friday’s U.S. employment report dominates this week’s economic data calendar but it’s been the disastrous U-turn in UK government fiscal policy and the subsequent enforced deferral of the BoE’s QT plans that’s left many investors really rattled. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what’s going on.
Supported by aggressive rhetoric, this week’s raft of official interest rate hikes means that many central banks are still firmly in tightening mode. And that’s adding to recession risks and posing increasing problems for those monetary authorities reluctant or unable to follow suit.
The impact of surging energy prices on monetary policy has been apparent for some while now but as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, the real economy fallout is increasingly forcing governments to intervene with fiscal help. The team discuss the global picture.
If there was one overriding message from last week’s Jackson Hole symposium it was that central banks have had enough of overshooting inflation. And from current elevated levels, that means further, almost certainly aggressive, monetary tightening that can only increase the likelihood of recession.
In recent weeks a number of central banks have modified, or even completely jettisoned, their forward guidance on interest rates. While sensibly allowing monetary policy to be more nimble, the changes also reflect increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The team analyse the latest developments.
Inflation is still far too high pretty well everywhere and, in some countries, still rising. However, as the real economy data disappoint, recession talk is getting notably louder. And if recession is just around the corner, it may be that the peak to inflation and interest rates is closer than many suppose.
To varying degrees, inflation, geopolitical tensions and inevitably Covid continue to dictate investor behaviour in general. However, policy responses around the world have to respect what’s going on locally and national economic conditions differ markedly. The team look at the dislocations in economic cycles and their implications for financial markets in this month’s global podcast.
Following a raft of central bank announcements on Wednesday and today, Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the policymakers did and what it all means for financial markets in 2022.
It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.
Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.
The dollar’s recent gains in part reflect euro weakness with the Eurozone unit now at multi-month lows against a range of currencies. Moreover, in the absence of a change in tone from the ECB, upcoming economic data and events could well reinforce the currency’s slide. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the medium-term outlook.
U.S. inflation continues to climb and with it, so does speculation about early Fed tightening. With yield spreads likely to widen in the currency’s favour, October’s shock CPI report could open the door to a significantly stronger dollar that, in turn, would provide an additional unwelcome lift to prices overseas. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.
Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week’s announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.
With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the latest and upcoming key economic data.
By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors’ view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this week’s global podcast considers the tricky decisions facing the policymakers.
Friday’s U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November’s FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what’s expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and events this week.
Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday. Either economic cycles are now moving out of sync or at least one central bank has got it wrong.
Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developments and their implications for policy in this month’s global podcast.
An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.
Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are also in focus.
The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.
PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the ongoing disconnect.
Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.
Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.
The basic message from global central banks is holding, that inflation pressures now building will soon fade and that rate hikes are still well down the road.
Federal Reserve communications are approaching the inflection point on when to signal the withdrawal of stimulus. For Europe, this pivot is still more distant given lagging vaccination rates and lagging economic performance.
Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availability.
Despite the recent rise in long rates, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England are likely to make any QE adjustments. Covid cases have been coming down and vaccination rates going up in both the US and UK, in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the outlook is becoming more uncertain.
With vaccines rolling out and Covid cases coming down, our team updates the outlook for inflation and long-term interest rates and what it may or may not mean for any changes in central bank policy.
Inflation may still be well below target but it is on the rise as are long-term interest rates. How these factors are affecting the financial markets and monetary policy and what they mean for central-bank communication strategy are points of this week's discussion.
This week's topic is whether central banks may begin to increase or decrease QE as a means of controlling exchange rates and the related risks that such action might bring to financial market stability.
Inflation expectations in the financial markets are rising quickly in contrast to actual inflation measures which are still subdued.
Brian Jackson and Jeremy Hawkins pull together the latest economic trends and discuss the importance to financial markets of the relative pace of the vaccine rollout.
Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the latest economic data from Europe and the US, including a sharp drop in UK retail indications and sharp gains for US home prices. GDP outlooks are also discussed as well as issues at play for coming central bank meetings.
Our duo of Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender round-up recent data and discuss the outlook for pending data and upcoming central bank announcements. Themes include weakness in the US labor market, ECB lending worries as well as the separation between assessments of current conditions and expectations for future recovery.
Our team discusses the latest employment news from both the US and Canada, as well Covid counts and restrictions in Europe and what it may mean for first-quarter activity.
With much of the global hospitality sector hit by Covid-19 restrictions, takeaways have been a lifesaver for many cafes, pubs and restaurants in 2020. But throughout the year, there’s also been a number of interesting takeaways to be had from how policymakers and financial markets have responded to the coronavirus pandemic. Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at some of the most significant.
Balancing between near-term weakness and medium-term prospects of vaccination relief, the Federal Reserve is not expected to make any policy moves at this week's meeting. And as long as Brexit remains up in the air, neither is the Bank of England though should a no-deal emerge, the bank could take pre-emptive action. Also meeting this week will be the Swiss National Bank whose easing bias, given stability in the Swiss franc, isn't likely to be tested, as well as the Bank of Japan where QE extension is a possibility.
The post-Brexit world is imminent but has yet to take shape. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss what various outcomes might mean for currencies and also discuss possible outcomes for next week's slate of central bank meetings and their possible effects on the markets.
The impending arrival of a Covid-19 vaccine continues to underpin global stock markets despite mounting evidence of weak fourth quarter GDP in Europe and some signs of slowing activity in the U.S. Geopolitical issues are also discussed as a possible threat to the economic recovery in parts of the Asia/Pacific region.
Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at the state of the recovery in the major economies and warns that future prospects could be seriously damaged by emerging disputes between and amongst fiscal and monetary policymakers.
Strength in retail sales and housing as well as business investment appear to be giving the US an edge at least relative to Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest economic data as well as the very latest updates on European fiscal stimulus and, not least, what is supposed to be the final act for Brexit.
Monday's announcement of a breakthrough vaccine promises perhaps a timely turnaround for the global economy, in turn raising questions whether central banks will begin the delicate policy shift to stimulus withdrawal. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest implications of the US election as well as the immediate economic outlook which, given new restrictions underway in Europe, may not be positive at all.
The unknown outcome of the US election may be increasing the risk that new fiscal stimulus will either be limited or delayed. Our panel also discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's move this week to cut interest rates and whether it may be anticipating increasing stimulus, perhaps negative rates, from other central banks including the European Central Bank and Bank of England both of which are facing a rising tide of Covid infections.
Financial markets, including currencies, are showing no dislocations despite surging global debt and aggressively stimulative monetary policy. And even more aggressive policy may in store amid the possibility that the general weakness of the economic recovery will force yet more central banks to adopt negative policy rates.
What to expect or not to expect from the EU leaders' summit is this week's feature, one that poses possible and immediate risks to UK assets. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss worldwide debt, worldwide disinflation, Greek bonds and global growth forecasts.
Relaxation of Covid restrictions is giving much of Asia an economic lift, while lack of new restrictions is a plus for the US. Yet in Europe infections are on the rise at the same time that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, both pressuring the European Central Bank to perhaps increase QE. For all regions, new fiscal stimulus, delayed or not, is the universal cry.
Reflecting the strains of Covid in Europe, splits may be showing at both the European Central Bank, where calls are appearing for greater QE, as well as the Bank of England where talk of negative rates has re-emerged. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also update the outlook for fiscal stimulus both in Europe and the US, and also discuss the possible market impact of US politics and the first presidential debate.
How to control the pandemic while not limiting the economic recovery is the question for policy makers in Europe where talk of a second wave is building. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the general outlook for fiscal stimulus as well as September's run of PMIs and what to expect from the coming Swiss National Bank assessment.
Inflation is the first topic of discussion among many European central-bank policy makers, in distinct contrast to the US where the labor market is top on the agenda. The relative role that currency plays in policy making is also discussed, as are the latest developments over Brexit (specifically the UK’s Internal Market Bill).
New stimulus from the European Central Bank on Thursday isn't likely but, given economic slowing and rising Covid rates, is possible. Uncertainty over passage of July's European recovery package is another risk our panelists discuss as well as new uncertainty over Brexit as the UK toughens its stance.
How is the sharp bounce back in economic data affecting politics, including the pending election in the US? Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also tackle questions surrounding the general weakness in production versus strength in retail sales and home sales.
The great wave of central bank stimulus is finding a home in the equity markets as the great wave of fiscal stimulus is supporting consumers and driving up retail spending. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender consider the outlook for stimulus, including the risk to financial markets of it winding down should Covid-19 cases begin to ebb.
Economic data in Asia, tied to infection levels, are diverging with China bouncing back but others still contracting. For the US, Friday's jobs report will update whether the US is also bouncing back, if not then pressure for fiscal stimulus would heat up even further. In Europe, rising infection levels are raising questions over the third-quarter outlook.
Heightened rates of infection, especially in the US, are pulling down consumer and business outlooks in results that do not support a 'V'-recovery. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss upcoming indicators including US GDP, where massive contraction is expected, as well as Germany's CPI which is at risk of being skewed lower by a cut in value-added taxes.
The good news is that Europe's recovery agreement marks a positive step toward a harmonised fiscal policy and takes a little of the heat off the European Central Bank to further stimulate growth. However, securing the prospective transfer of wealth from the European Union’s northern members to its southern states has highlighted major differences over economic policy and done little to bolster the Eurozone’s political credibility.
No new stimulus is expected from the ECB on Thursday though the outlook for the EU leaders summit at week's end, and details on an expected €750 billion bailout fund, is less certain. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest global data along with US fiscal policy as well as the UK's move to ban Hauwei and what it might mean for post-Brexit trade.
How much of Hong Kong's distinctive character is permitted to survive will be key to how foreign businesses respond to China's security move. And what advantages Hong Kong loses as a financial center will likely pass to two rival financial centers, Singapore and Shanghai. Our panel also discusses high-flying stock prices in the US, economic resilience in Switzerland, and lack of progress in Eurozone recovery plans.
Economic damage from the coronavirus appears to have been comparatively less severe in Europe, reflected in retail sales data, including from Germany, that have been rebounding sharply higher. German employment has also been favorable, showing only minimal damage and underscoring the success of the government's crisis efforts. Unemployment benefits, value added taxes and US employment data are also discussed.
Flash PMIs for June are pointing not to increasing rates of growth but to stabilization near the deep lows when the virus first hit. Economic risks posed by rising infections in the US and clusters of infections in Europe are also discussed as are yield curve controls, Italian bonds, as well as social distancing rules for UK pubs.
Government stimulus together with pent-up demand drove US retail sales sharply higher in May, raising the question whether consumer spending in Europe may also rebound. Other topics include quantitative easing at the Bank of England, foreign exchange intervention at the Swiss National Bank, and Europe's stake in ongoing Brexit negotiations.
Outside of May's wildly strong US employment report, there is very little if any evidence of economic strength, whether in the US or Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the outlook for Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement and revisit last week's European Central Bank meeting that produced a burst of new QE.
Hong Kong, hit previously by US-China trade disputes then civil unrest then Covid-19, is now being hit by China's security move which is raising questions over the city's status as a global financial center. Our panel also discusses social strife and unemployment in the US, the European Central Bank's dynamic but also careful move to increase QE, and the latest on Brexit and whether a no-deal trade deal is a risk.
Now is the testing time for cultural traditions in the US labor market and political unity in Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender detail the latest in fiscal policy and also monetary policy including the pros and cons of negative interest rates.
Prices for food may be going up but prices for just about everything else are going down. Policy implications of lower prices are discussed as well as what the coronavirus may mean for future production and also the risk that the US-China blame game poses to future trade.
There are some signs of improvement in Asia, but not any yet in Europe and North America where virus impact is still severe. Our panel discusses emerging economic imbalances and what monetary and fiscal policy can and can't do to help.
The historic hole the global economy is falling into defies description. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss upcoming data, just released data, currencies, equities and also Europe's limited reaction to the crisis.
With oil collapsing and infection rates still high, good news is hard to find. But Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender do their best, pointing to stability in the latest data out of China and a sharp jump in an expectations reading out of Germany where restrictions are easing.
Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the possible depth of global contraction underway along with key indicators that are coming up. Relative regional performances and relative stimulus efforts are also discussed, all against a backdrop of easing infection rates.
Stock markets appear to be looking past an approaching round of numbingly bad economic data. Our panel discusses the coming numbers including next week's round out of China where quarter-end improvement is a possibility.
Global economic data now coming out for the month or March have not all been dire. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender explore the latest numbers; what they mean and the care needed in their interpretation. They also discuss the latest policy efforts to stem virus effects.
Global flash PMIs showed abrupt and severe slowing for services but sometimes surprisingly resilient results for manufacturing. And a clear positive for recovery is the extraordinary efforts by global central banks to cut rates, backstop loans, and print money to buy government bonds. Also stepping up have been national governments which are announcing major spending initiatives with the glaring exception, at least so far, of the US government.
National governments across the world are starting to follow their central banks with fiscal stimulus incorporating, in some cases, massive spending and support programs. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest news and data including dislocations in the financial markets and global economy.
Fiscal stimulus increasingly appears to be the best if not only option to fight the economic effects from the coronavirus given that monetary action, with global interest rates below zero or approaching zero and after a decade of quantitative easing, appears to be spent. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the outlook for economic policy amid the momentous developments playing out in the financial markets.
With monetary policy already limited by low to negative interest rates, fiscal policies such as tax cuts and new spending appear to be the next course to offset the effects of the coronavirus. Our panel discusses what options may or may not be available to global policy makers.
Rising concerns about the spreading Covid-19 virus have significantly boosted investor appetites for safe haven instruments. Jeremy Hawkins discusses what the latest data tell us about the economic impact so far and what to look out for over coming months.
Fourth-quarter data were flat to negative in Europe and Japan and hint at the need for further policy stimulus going into the coronavirus. Initial February data on US manufacturing show no ill effects at all from the virus in contrast to January data that were hit hard, not by the virus, but by the 737 shutdown.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, aren't yet downgrading their outlooks, but the unfolding effects of the coronavirus on Chinese output may be raising the odds for another round of global rate cuts. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss a rare plunge in European economic activity at year-end as well as the risk in Asia, where economies are seeking stimulus, of an emerging currency war.
Patience will be key when assessing the unfolding impact of the coronavirus on Asian economies, though initial indications have been moderate and not dramatic. Our panel also discusses US manufacturing, which appears to be accelerating though not all the data are favorable, and also the latest numbers from Europe and the UK where weakness is the trend.
The Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady and will continue, at least for the next few months, to add liquidity to the banking system which may be good news for US markets. For UK markets, the Bank of England still sees rates going up at some point but acknowledges it may yet have to cut if the hard data do not improve. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the market impact of the coronavirus and they round up the latest economic data, including strength in Eurozone economic sentiment and indicators in the US that are pointing to a strong employment report for January.
Global data are mixed, some improving, some not. Jeremy Hawkins pinpoints some possible surprises for Thursday's European Central Bank meeting and especially the Bank of England's meeting on the following Thursday where a sudden rate cut may be a possibility.
December's employment report showed unexpected slowing in US wage growth despite high levels of employment, reviving questions over structural labor issues. In Europe, tentative signs may be emerging that the worst for the economy may be over, in turn raising new questions over the policy outlook for the European Central Bank and other central banks as well.