Geopolitical Research

Interview by Binci Heeb – The Broker – Switzerland, 14 Nov 2024

Dear reader

This interview published in the Swiss financial press complements our recent newsletters.

Mr. Takushi was interviewed by journalist Binci Heeb, who was also present at the CFA Society Seminar prior to the US elections. They discussed the the impact on Europe and Switzerland in particular.

With courtesy of The Broker / Mrs Binci Heeb

Interview: What are the implications of Donald Trump’s landslide victory for Europa & Switzerland?https://www.thebroker.ch/what-are-the-implications-of-trumps-victory-ch/

Reaktion by Mr. Takushi to the interview

It was one of the most demanding interviews I have given recently. Anything but superficial! Binci Heeb’s questions took us on a journey around the world.

We discussed the impact on Europe from a global perspective and different angles.

Foresight:
a) Rather than adjusting course in self interest a defiant Europe is heading for tougher times. Having bound itself to a disarmed overregulated EU, the Swiss Financial Industry is losing clients to America and other safe havens. Is it enough to be the best in a sinking boat?

b) Following Trump’s policies since 2015 we expect immediate peace with limited justice. Trump’s foreign policy advisers like Marco Rubio see little room for justice now. But they hope that trade will bring prosperity and a more just peace down the road. Our newsletter subscribers may remember our research about a West-East Belt Road via Hungary-Romania-Ukraine from 2018.

Personal remarks:
Research driven by analysis. We try to keep our personal views out of it.

Contingency Plans:

Smart investors have shifted part of their assets to geopolitical safe nations in the Southern hemisphere that are not highly indebted and respect private property. Building a second base for your business or family requires good preparation and it can take up to three years time. No single location is risk-free, so a wise combination of locations is the best way forward for the next 5-10 years. For many persons and firms based in the USA and Europe the combination of Switzerland-Uruguay is effective. But for some people Mauritius or Singapore is the better fit. The most complementary combination of Safe Havens is currently Gstaad (CH) and Punta del Este (UY). But there are other combinations – it depends on one’s needs.

Kind regards

Geopolitical Research Team

( to request a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com )

Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.

Research made in Switzerland Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide. Independent research and releasing a report only when we deviate from consensus adds value.

View Details

Interview by Binci Heeb – The Broker – Switzerland, 13 Nov 2024

Liebe Leserin, lieber Leser

Dieses in der Schweizer Finanzpresse veröffentlichte Interview ergänzt unsere letzten Newsletter.

Herr Takushi wurde von der Journalistin Binci Heeb interviewt, die auch am Seminar der CFA Society vor den US-Wahlen teilnahm. Sie diskutierten die Auswirkungen auf Europa und insbesondere die Schweiz.

Welche Auswirkungen hat der massive Sieg von Donald Trump auf Europa und die Schweiz? https://www.thebroker.ch/welche-auswirkungen-hat-sieg-trumps-auf-schweiz/Reaktion von Herrm Takushi aufs Interview

Es war eins der spannendsten Interviews, das ich in letzter Zeit gegeben habe. Alles andere als oberflächlich! Frau Heebs anspruchsvolle Fragen haben uns auf eine Reise um die Welt und komplexe Themen geschickt, die selten angesprochen werden. Eine Freude zu sehen wie thebroker tiefer greift als es normalerweise der Fall ist in unserer Finanzindustrie.

Contingency Plans:

Kind regards

Geopolitical Research Team

( to request a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com )

Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.

View Details

TRUMP is back – BIG! By Christian Takushi, Economist – Switzerland, 6 Nov 2024 (delayed & truncated public release on 8 Nov 2024)The American people have spoken and they have given former President Donal J. Trump a massive mandate for change. We have witnessed one of the most remarkable political comebacks in modern history.

Like in 2016 we were led to expect a Trump victory in 2024 – this time we even went as far as to foresee a red sweep over the three branches (president, senate and house of representatives). I did not expect Trump to win the popular vote this overwhelmingly though.

Those of you that follow our research reports since 2015 know that I don’t like to make sensationalist statements nor flashy forecasts. I put more importance on analysis than forecasts. Why? An avalanche of forecasts and data is part of our problem in the world today. There are simply too many forecasts, often driven by activism, but few solid rationales or analysis to back them up. I am also often reserved with sharing my forecasts, because I don’t want to become popular, just because we got a few important events right in the past. *It is the analysis what matters!* I see our track record as God’s grace to us and that we still have to focus on forward looking analysis.

The result of this election cycle will be one of the most upsetting events in world politics of the past 80 years – of this I am sure. It is likely to have a massive impact on the macroeconomic landscape and the political process. The big wars we have also predicted in the past ten years for Europe and the Middle East will not be averted – they are likely to be delayed.

Nevertheless I’d like to share what unfolded over the past two weeks with you – I think it tells a lot about what is going on right now.

In recent months – at conferences and seminars – I have been saying how I expected these elections to unfold. Then once again the CFA Institute asked me to share my analysis and prediction for the US elections before Election Day.

This has become a little tradition that honours us, because it shows the most influential institution for investment professionals worldwide appreciates our analysis and our ability to talk about a highly charged complex topic in a balanced way without personal biases. I used that public CFA webinar to make our forecast public: a Trump win, based on all available information.

At that CFA Seminar of October 23rd I stated that we are expecting President Trump to win the elections. Yesterday, a CFA official that participated at the recent conference asked me if I was still sticking to my prediction.

My reply:

” .. Now it comes down to who does show up to vote today. So, some would say “anything is possible now”. But barring any surprises and if I’d follow my instincts and experience, Trump still takes this. The Senate and House were in play as well “

The red sweep we have been cautiously expecting is here.

(text truncated here)

*Results as we write this:*Trump is winning the race for US President and the GOP has secured Senate (more solidly than we expected though). The GOP is on track to hold the House as well.

(text truncated here)

*We need to pause and reflect* I think it is important for investors and business leaders to understand how this result came to be. They need to understand how the world is changing – This is a strong mandate.

America under Trump will be tough for allies and foes alike.

As I have said for months .. I am worried about Europe. Our leaders have mocked, despised and insulted Trump all the way, even in recent months and days. Strange our leaders didn’t tone down their rhetoric earlier. Europe should adapt in self interest – America doesn’t really need us. As I have said Europe is in for a very tough four years.

Europe is vulnerable and caught in a massive strategic trap .. so our leaders should be putting our economic interests first now.

(text truncated here)

Here the CFA Society event on US electionshttps://www.youtube.com/embed/MGrPjkYBfwE

*Important note*Let’s give thanks to God that the US elections seem to have unfolded safely and without any major disruptions.

This peace and lack of violence should not be taken for granted.

Geopolitical Research Team – 6 Nov 2024
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

( to request a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com stating your name and country of residence )

Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.

Global Geopolitical Research

View Details

Article by Binci Heeb – The Broker – Switzerland, Delayed release 28 Oct 2024

Dear readerThis external article complements our recent newsletters.

Mr. Takushi spoke at a CFA Society Seminar about the US elections and the impact on Europe.

With courtesy of The Broker / Mrs Binci Heeb

Navigating Global Turbulence: Insights from Christian Takushi’s Webinarhttps://www.thebroker.ch/navigating-global-turbulence-ch-takushis-webinar/With courtesy of The Broker / Mrs Binci Heeb

Reaction by Mr. Takushi to the article:

Thank you Binci Heeb for this excellent summary of the English-language CFA webinar on the US elections

For US citizens, it will probably change directions who wins on November 5th. But for people on the European continent, both Harris and Trump are likely to be uncomfortable.

The convergence of long-term trends coupled with Europe’s many strategic mistakes leaves US governments with no other choice.

Under Harris US foreign policy will get tougher and is likely to trigger even more conflicts, while under Trump his peace in Ukraine and the Middle East will be overshadowed by severe economic measures.

Since Europe has maneuvered itself into a huge strategic trap, Europe will also be the biggest victim of the tougher US foreign and economic policy.

We should not blame America for our fate. Every nation takes advantage of its opportunities and advantages. We have been dismantling our armies for over 20 years, thinking Net Zero.

No security, no prosperity. Utter lack of Geopolitical Foresight is becoming very expensive for Europe.

Since we managed to predict the big surprise of Trump’s victory in 2016, many people asked in the run-up to the seminar who would win on November 5th. Since October 11th, we see Trump in the lead.

General comments

- For Europe it doesn’t matter who wins in November in America. It is going to be very difficult either way
- America’s greatest threat to National Security is domestic: Out of control fiscal-monetary policies
- Europe faces a USD 9-10 Trillion financing gap – Officials may need to mobilise private savings. The Capital Market Union might be part of the solution.
- Investors neglect Turkey – Iran is likely to help Russia and China
- Geopolitical Safety: Uruguay and Mauritius top the ranking as New Zealand is under review for downgrade

Contingency Plans:

Kind regards

Geopolitical Research Team

( to request a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com )

Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.

Global Geopolitical Research

View Details

US Elections – CFA Seminar in Switzerland – 23 Oct 2024 with participants from over 7 countries and 3 continents.

Dear readerWe think this webinar complements our recent newsletters. They will benefit the most.

Some reactions from the participants: “You have sent a shockwave in the investment world”, “the big picture”, “excellent”.

US Elections – A global perspective & Impact on Europe

https://www.youtube.com/embed/MGrPjkYBfwE

An excerpt of our non-partisan analysis:

A Harris or Trump administration pose severe challenges to Europe. Tougher economic & foreign policies loom. America to benefit from Europe’s huge ongoing strategic errors.

The economic bloc that in its geopolitical illiteracy dismantled its military instead of preparing for this tough century sits in the trap.

- Where to invest?
  1) Geopolitically multi aligned (safe) economies that are young, fiscally healthy, resources, safe trading routes
  2) USA. In Europe defense, security, Net Zero (until it runs out of money), CMU, logistics, food-energy security
  3) in 3 weeks Chancay mega port opens. To cut shipping time Asia-LatAm by 30%. Europe’s lifeline is blocked, China’s gets better For Europe it doesn’t matter who wins in November in America. It is going to be very difficult either way
- America’s greatest threat to National Security is domestic: Out of control fiscal-monetary policies
- Europe faces a USD 9-10 Trillion financing gap – Officials may need to mobilise private savings. The Capital Market Union might be part of the solution.
- Investors neglect Turkey – Iran is likely to help Russia and China
- Geopolitical Safety: Uruguay and Mauritius top the ranking as New Zealand is under review for downgrade

Contingency Plans:

Smart investors have shifted part of their assets to geopolitical safe nations in the Southern hemisphere that are not highly indebted and respect private property. Building a second base for your business or family requires good preparation and it can take up to three years time. No single location is risk-free, so a wise combination of locations is the best way forward for the next 5-10 years. For many persons and firms based in the USA and Europe the combination of Switzerland-Uruguay is effective. But for some people Mauritius or Singapore is the better fit. One of the most complementary combinations of Safe Havens is currently Gstaad (CH) and Punta del Este (UY). But there are other combinations – it depends on one’s needs.

Kind regards

Geopolitical Research Team

( For a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com )

Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.

Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 23 Oct 2024

View Details

Quoting an article written by a Peruvian lawyer and journalist – Mr. Jimenez wrote about my speech from 10 Oct 2024

Why Peru’s 2nd Economic Miracle could be at hand For our recent subscribers:We only release a report when our analysis significantly deviates from consensus or we shed light on something significant that markets overlook. We don’t want to add to the “noise” out there.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/per%C3%BA-pr%C3%B3xima-potencia-econ%C3%B3mica-global-en-una-nueva-era-de-mndne/?trackingId=lUF6yWO4%2FNjuYnAPuPw9OA%3D%3DQuoting an article written by a Peruvian lawyer and journalist – Mr. Jimenez wrote about my speech from 10 Oct 2024By Christian Takushi, Economist, Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 11 Oct Sep 2024Geopolitical Research Team

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

By Econ. Christian Takushi, Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 26 Sept 2024 (This report was adapted and truncated for public release, 1 Oct 2024)Demographics showed us ten years ago where we’d be nowFor our recent subscribers:We only release a report when our analysis significantly deviates from consensus or we shed light on something significant that markets overlook. We don’t want to add to the “noise” out there.

Dear reader

Every now and then it is important to take a step back – specially in the run up to an unprecedented US Election Day. We have been working on a geopolitical round-up of interconnected developments on multiple fronts, but we noticed .. we need to release this report first.

Just as you hear many political and financial leaders lately making bold statements on the campaign trail or at the UN, take a step back and see what the context and backdrop is

I invite you to look at the big picture. There is something we can’t change easily, not over one government administration, not even over three or four: the demographic trajectory of our nations. That can only be significantly altered or changed over 25-40 years.

Please, keep this in mind as you walk through the next few months …

Demographics showed us ten years ago we’d be here .. nowThose of you that follow our research ten years or longer, may remember one of our first analytical charts (see below). We have been tracking the Old-Age-Dependency Ratios for many years: The number of retirees and the number of persons in the labor force – for all key nations.

For many reasons: Demographics matters for economics, politics and geopolitics. Demographics also matters, because at a time when so many governments are tampering with data to underreport inflation and overstate employment & economic growth in order to both boost their approval ratings and to disinform their geopolitical enemies/competitors, you want to look at relevant data that governments can’t easily influence at will.

Thanks to the comprehensive UN population data projections (which are quite accurate) and our aggregate-level analysis, we knew since mid 2013 about the coming simultaneous dramatic deterioration of ODR ratios during 2015-2040 – across most of the Northern Hemisphere. From Canada and USA .. over Ukraine and Russia .. to China and South Korea.

We warned in 2014: The number of Retirees will explode as the Labor Forces will implode – especially across the Northern hemisphere with dramatic impacts on our Middle Class, Political Stability and social-military Security. Europe would be most affected.

We’ve since been analysing how this dramatic shift would drive geopolitics, foreign policy and fiscal-monetary policy between 2015 and 2040 and have been speaking with government, central bank officials and business leaders ever since – to warn them about what is coming and how to prepare.

The impact of the ODR Shock: Impoverishment & Conflict, even Israel It is comforting to point fingers on another party and to blame governments for the mess in the West. Fact is both conservative and liberal parties have been printing money and driving up massive deficits. In reality many policy makers saw the dangers, but acknowledged it is too late to change course, or politically suicidal to correct our bubbles or simply too difficult to fight the momentum in our political process. People like handouts.

Our unethical monetary-fiscal policies reached way beyond the financial realm. A recurring issue over the past 4’000 years of economic history: The problem is this – the more indebted a nation and the more debased its currency, the more its government will be forced to deflect into Foreign Policy. During the 2015-2040 period we have an extraordinary situation with most large nations in the Northern Hemisphere simultaneously deflecting into Foreign Policy. That means more conflicts, wars – especially in the Middle East. In 2014 we ascertained we will get a new Cold War. But Cold War II would be much more complex, dangerous and costly than the first one.

In a nutshell: Fast rising ODR ratios de facto mean that “real disposable incomes” will shrink over time, so all affected governments will DEFLECT in different ways – like at the end of every big cycle.

In 2014 we began to predict a return of conflicts and wars between countries of the Northern hemisphere. Look at our chart from 2015 (above) – used at our keynote speeches. Our dysfunctional Western democracies face the biggest losses. Since 2015 we have been expecting the growing likelihood of the following phenomena

a) Rising political instability across North America, Europe, Russia, Middle East, Pakistan, China ..
b) Mass migrations
c) Growing influence of Middle East over Europe (and blocked Maritime Routes)
d) Massive fiscal-monetary stimulus by West. economies, biggest bubble ever

e) Three large scale wars in the Northern hemisphere (already 120 conflicts)

Europe is particularly vulnerable, because all world powers project their Foreign Policy and military power into the Middle East. Everyone – from Mexico and Brazil to China and North Korea – is deflecting into the Middle East conflict. Those that don’t know this think Israel and Iran simply failed to keep the peace.

Across MENA and South Asia the enemies of the West have managed to win the support of all key nations along our Maritime Routes. Thus, China and Russia can very easily “choke” over 60% of Europe’s global supply chains.

Thus, even the security of Israel has …

This report has been adapted and truncated here. To request a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com stating your name and country of residence. Other subtitles/sections in this report ..

How Eastern powers and Iran can blackmail Europe
The government is not in control – no one human is
No easy way out – Losses and opportunities abound
Total Reset: Asset Corrections vs State Control – European Federation
Conservative people underestimate the Wealth Illusion
Why should a majority upend free markets (the backbone of democracy)?
Helpful remarks Personal commentImportant noteThis report reflects the current state of our research and it could change if more new figures are available, estimates change, policy goals are adapted or the global conditions change.

By Christian Takushi, Economist, Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 26 Sep 2024 (This report was adapted and truncated for public release, 1 Oct 2024)

Geopolitical Research Team

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

By Econ. Christian Takushi, Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 27 Aug 2024 (This report was adapted and truncated for public release, 30 Aug 2024)With USD 10 Trillion to finance, will Europe tap savings accounts?Possible policy moves few are prepared for (For our recent subscribers:
(a) We only release a report when our analysis significantly deviates from consensus or we shed light on something significant that markets overlook. (b) We strive to write in a responsible, balanced and respectful manner, because it is too easy these days to raise fears and to project people’s anger against somebody else, a party or the government. There are enough people doing this – for commercial gain or popularity.)Dear readerProbably the biggest issue of our time – increasingly drives every other policy.While current events are important and we do have an opinion on what unfolded last week in the United States (RFK Jr. endorsing Trump) and Israel at war, but also recently in the UK, France, Ukraine, Hungary, the Philippines etc. we are issuing a report on something else. Something no US presidential candidate or European leader is currently able to address, because they can’t stop a train that is speeding up.I am talking about the fiscal deficit acceleration in the West, massive financing gaps and emergency measures that could soon be necessary. The three charts I have prepared reflect the magnitude of the funding crisis ahead.Not addressing the large gap would only accelerates the bankruptcy of the European project or the inevitable takeover of the economy by the state.Although as a trained macro economist I am committed to thorough objective analysis, please, let my analysis be just an external 2nd opinion. The issues at stake are not only daunting and complex (augmented by low data consistency), this is the current state of our analysis. We keep testing all our hypotheses.A glimpse of what may lie ahead Last week the three US presidential candidates were on stage talking about many things, except THE MAIN ISSUE. Did you notice what they didn’t talk about? The one thing that is increasingly driving everything else in the Western world and the 20 largest economies. If you understand this, much of the chaos may make sense.No major platform is discussing the drastic accelerated deterioration of our public finances and, not surprisingly, few investors are prepared for what I think could be the biggest Policy Interventions or Wealth Transfer since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, and possibly WW2. Many will say this is bigger than the Covid response – except that it might be in reverse. While much remains unclear and factors could still change course, we are monitoring the growing likelihood of (or the early stages of) ..* Europe increasingly eyeing private savings to finance NET ZERO (Costs of USD 40’000 Bn by 2050) * Largest 20 economies (G20) coordinating efforts to tax their wealthy (a big wealth tax could be in the pipeline) * Major unorthodox policy interventions might be necessary in the next few years * Large scale crises and wars may linger as a result

I can say with a relatively high level of confidence that the combined side-effects of our collective behaviour over the past 50 years leave our policy makers no orthodox alternatives. Some people will of course argue that our EU leaders may have desired what lies ahead.Growing importance of Geopolitical Asset Diversification – Since there is no such a thing as a risk-free economy in this complex transition the world has entered, it will come down to strategic diversification and the combination of 2 safe havens. At the minimum two complementary bases.

Forward looking investors have already shifted part of their cash and gold to less glamorous but geopolitically safe jurisdictions in the Southern hemisphere that have healthy fiscal-monetary policies and respect private property.The twin-conditions are key: Highly indebted nations that still respect private property are already looking for ways to tap bank accounts and private savings to finance their deficits and large spending plans. Where prices have risen already too far or conditions no longer allow for corrections, governments have begun discussing socialising parts of the economy with their advisers. Those policy moves are likely to affect private property as we know it. We will not enter into the politics of this policy dilemmas and shall rather focus on helping people understand what could lie ahead.The conclusions leave little room for pointing fingersThe issues at stake in this report could have been used already months and years ago to stir distrust and fear. In the social environment of the past four years it could have also been used for popularity and commercial gain. But we adhere to moral principles that lead to us to use our analysis responsibly. This is part of the reason why we have not released this analysis earlier.At this stage of our ongoing independent analysis our conclusions on this highly complex issue point to a systemic phenomenon, where our governments are increasingly acting from a lack of options rather than from a preconceived hidden agenda. The geopolitical reality has caught up with European leaders and they are not in control as they used to be. This is especially the case of European states, that have maneuvered themselves into a major strategic trap. The growing competition between nations has reduced whatever control governments had over the course of their nations. As a result they are increasing controls wherever they can. Some leaders enjoy the limelight to give the impression they are running this world and they are under control. Don’t fall for it.At my next key-note speech I will speak of “Ein fremdgesteuertes Europa” – In English it would be: Europe’s destiny now controlled by foreign powers.I am not saying there aren’t officials and leaders out there that have such agendas, but the evidence of a systemic failure is more convincing and .. it is too simplistic to explain everything away with conspirative hidden agendas. Not that they don’t exist. But, such lines of thought shift all blame on some elites and leave us all conveniently as innocent victims. In our independent analysis .. most of us have somehow contributed to our Western predicament – actively or passively. Many of us have benefitted from the money printing and the excessive spending of our governments. Ultimately governments tend to reflect at least in part the societies they represent. When all educated decent people shy away from public office and only mock politicians, they cannot complain when governments are run by – what they call – scoundrels.The inevitable Policy Shock would have been upon us in the late 2030’s, but it has been brought forward, because of the gigantic cost of our energy transition and the war in Ukraine.Let’s recap: So far our independent analysis points to practically unavoidable far reaching fiscal-monetary policy steps (that may soon be upon us) – An inevitable result of our collective consumption rush, debt appetite and recession-aversion over many years. Many of us have been recipients of handouts and benefits – all financed irresponsibly. In the policy framework of our Western societies concerned policy makers have had no other choice but to kick the can down the road. Neither consumers nor retirees wanted the government to stop over-spending.Not an activist I am not a EU-skeptic that uses analysis to prophesy the downfall of the EU – In fact I am only driven by forward-looking analysis and this points to a security & financial collapse (reset), that is very likely to be followed by a much swifter European Integration Process.Before we look at any set of numbers, let’s get an idea of the big picture first. Numbers without context can be misleading or misused for anything.The West in a fiscal-monetary trap – But Europe is aloneAfter 49 years of non-stop stimulus, most of our Western economies are artificially inflated. The prices of our houses, stocks, bonds etc. are all inflated. But it is no easy thing to deflate such a giant bubble across major Western economies. No one has ever done it – and so far all Western economies tried to manage this in tandem. But Europe’s big self-made problems are too big to be overseen. Understandably other world powers are taking swift advantage of Europe’s predicament: If Europe de-industrialises first or is forced to reset first, all other powers can hope for a more controlled transition.On the surface all major Western economies are highly indebted and facing a fiscal deficit & debt crisis. And not surprisingly also a moral crisis. But while America has the benefit of the USD, other Western states can no longer print money at the rate that Washington does. If they do, they risk a system destabilisation. Europe’s big errors have handed America a big advantage in this geopolitical-monetary transition.While America can inflate its way out of every crisis – as the inflationary shock, currency debasing and funding is spread globally, Europe can’t print paper-money endlessly without visible “real” pain (productivity decline, inflation, youth unemployment, impoverishment, de-industrialisation, lack of organic growth etc.) and seeing less demand for its currency and debt amongst non-Western economies. Thus, our governments are going to have to force domestic institutional investors to buy more of our overrated debt or highly subsidised projects. And find new sources. If this fails, policy makers may opt for resetting events – of which there is no lack thereof.In the past we (Europe) had a monetary disadvantage versus America, now we have a massive disadvantage on the monetary, energy, military, technology and security fronts.Keep this geopolitical big picture in mind as we move forward.Why Foreigners won’t finance our deficits & capital commitments Very simply, America is rapidly outgrowing Europe thanks to a massive “Invest in America” push by both parties .. and the healthy fast growing economies of the world have grown distrustful of Europe’s security predicament, loss of sovereignty and declining economy.As the old saying about the “frog in the hot water” implies: One has to literally live in Europe and enjoy state-owned TV to be able not to see how difficult our predicament is.Sadly, just as we warned in Summer 2022, our combined policy actions of recent years have pushed the healthiest economies in the world into the arms of China and the BRICS. The BRICS economies might be healthier than the West’s but they are not the healthiest!All of the above matters to us, because given our stagnating economy and the gigantic increase in our capital needs (NET ZERO alone is expected to costs us USD 40’000 over 25 years), the marginal investor will set the price of our capital raising going forward. For social stability we will have to pray that the rising temperatures in our time were all indeed caused by our CO2 emissions and nothing else.If we also want to “rig” the cost of that capital, Europe risks becoming de facto a centrally-planned impoverished economy. The savings of Europeans would earn suboptimal inflation-adjusted yields to help lower the cost of our Energy Transition. But have you seen how even our massive subsidies, state investments and price arrangements could not keep energy producers, wind turbine makers or solar panel makers from bankruptcy risk?After discussing Chart 3 I will also explain why the European Private Economy won’t be able shoulder much of the cost of EU’s investment plans.Rest of the world’s interest in Europe sinks ..Although our Western media portrays the globe as if the whole world is suffocating in debt and fiscal deficits (highlighting Venezuela, Bangladesh or Pakistan in the news), many emerging economies have rebuilt their economies since the 1990s on much healthier fiscal-monetary foundations than the West.The growing emerging economies with sustainable monetary policies have decided to reduce their exposure to our debased paper money and mis-priced debt. Thus, while they can’t afford to be without the USD for their cashflow and asset & liability management, they are trying to reduce exposure to the troubled European continent and hence the EURO. They will not only attract more capital, they want to buy less of our bonds and assets.Sadly, Europe is attracting mostly foreign investors with selfish geopolitical interests and I doubt our political and business leaders have the geopolitical literacy to navigate that.Little reaction Twice over the past 12 months EU finance ministers reportedly talked about tapping or mobilising the private savings and pensions of European citizens to help fund the huge energy and military investments, but very few people paid any attention. The few reactions were on two extremes: condescending stance or outright fear of confiscation.Americans have asked me how is it that Europeans are so indifferent about the state eyeing their savings as a source of money? The answer may be linked to the fact that a large number of us in West Europe get our news from state-owned TV.For ten years we have been monitoring the talks amongst senior finance officials of European nations about the expected increase in public spending and the stagnating tax revenues of a troubled EU economy. They know it will not get better. If you actually exclude the effect from the EU expansions and state-enforced capex, our over-regulated organic EU economy has been shrinking.Figures speak for themselves On the one hand the jungle of EU fiscal data is overwhelming – On the other hand the accuracy of projections is limited in a European Union where sovereign states at times rival the EU Commission.There are some figures though that will help you understand why concerned finance officials have been talking about this issue on and off for years and why it is also in no one’s great interest to talk openly about it. Only crises bring the necessary pressure to move the integration process forward.The table below shows the size of the financial contributions of each EU member country to the EU budget. Accounting-wise these contributions represent the revenues of EU. All contributions amounted to some USD 140 Bn last year.Chart 1)The EU budget is not small, but it is dwarfed by the Expenditure Plans of the EU for the next 15 years. I have focused here on energy and security, leaving other spending plans aside, because these two will shape the political process .In our most conservative model the EU capital needs will be roughly 3x larger than its current budget – every year until 2040. The situation between 2041 and 2050 will be even more precarious. According to a less optimistic model the spending plans of the EU could be 5x larger than its current budget.The financing shortfall is large. Where will the money come from?A glance at our next chart may explain why many experts avoid putting these figures in one chart. In part, because many EU officials think the government will only have to bear part of the cost. They say there are multiple sources of money and eager investors that are committed to fighting Climate Change and rebuilding our military. But looking at each one of those sources, I see am less confident. No matter how many simulations one runs to find the money, realistically speaking the EU is opening a giant financing gap – just at a time when other sources of capital are shunning away from Europe.

Mrs Christine Lagarde has acknowledged that the EU needs to invest EUR 800 Bn per year in the next decade to stay on track for NET ZERO by 2050 – that makes USD 8’800 Bn during 2031-2040. Based on several EU investment plans our estimate of USD 9’296 Bn over the next 15 years for the Energy Transition is thus not unrealistic. Some may even say it is not high enough.I am not saying we can’t find the capital to finance our big commitments, but I want my readers to see the size of our current EU budget vis-à-vis the size of the planned investments for energy and military security for the next 10 to 15 years.Key EU states have also begun war preparations – my current independent estimate for these investments runs at USD 190 Bn over the reminder of this decade on top of NATO recurring commitments. And this estimate is rising in recent months as EU officials discover the heavy industry to build the needed equipment is derelict and more realistic military exercises are laying bare the 25 years of dismantling of our Armed Forces. Much of what we think we have, exists only on paper and heavy-weight supply lines from West to East often do not even exist. Security has been taken for granted by EU leaders and citizens alike. A damning testimony to our geopolitical illiteracy.Chart 2)Even after creative budget exercises, massive subsidy cuts (which would reignite inflation) and cross-financing a big financing shortfall remains. Interestingly, we observed that when faced with the massive capital needs, European finance officials have talked about the idleness of Europeans’ private bank accounts – in fact the only pool of money left that is big enough to effectively help finance the gigantic EU investment plans: We are talking about USD 11’400 Bn in liquid assets.Why I think the Fiscal Deficit and Financing Gap is a crucial issue for Western states and especially Europe? Our main sources for additional fiscal spending in recent years were either unsustainable or unsustainable-inflationary-immoral. But how can Europe tap the bank accounts and eventually the pensions of its citizens? This is where the European Capital Market Union comes into play.Brussels wants to merge the financial markets of individual states on our continent to facilitate cross-border investments. This should help finance the big spending plans of the EU. A mix of regulations, guidance, incentives, subsidies and prohibitions should mobilise private firms and also allow savers to mobilise their money voluntarily ..This report has been adapted and truncated here. To request a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com stating your name and country of residence. Other sections in the original our report Paradigm Change starts in 2021 * America reigns * EU eyes one major source of capital * Tapping of private savings – Part of a reset? * What Brussels overlooks: The private economy is not private (anymore) * Europe’s Safe Haven is no longer enough – Geopolitical asset diversification*

Important note:This report reflects the current state of our research and it could change if more accurate figures are available, estimates change, policy goals are adapted or the global conditions change.All analysis, conclusions and charts were made wherever possible using data and estimates from EU institutions. Adjustments were made to make the assessment as realistic as possible. In particular we think the EU is overestimating the ability of the private sector to shoulder the costs.By Christian Takushi, Economist, Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 27 Aug 2024 (This report was adapted and truncated for public release, 30 Aug 2024)Geopolitical Research Team – Tue 27 Aug 2024

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

Interview with Financial Sense – Global Geopolitical Economic Roundup, Switzerland, Delayed release 30 Aug 2024

Dear readerThis interview complements our recent newsletters.

Mr. Takushi has been interviewed by SanDiego-based Financial Sense. The interview was aired in the United States last week:

US Interview with Financial Sense https://geopoliticalresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/financial-sense-20240821-takushi-elections-0d2fb98.mp3* + For Europe it doesn’t matter who wins in November in America. It is going to be very difficult either way + America’s greatest threat to National Security is domestic: Out of control fiscal-monetary policies + Europe faces a USD 9-10 Trillion financing gap – Officials may need to mobilise private savings. The Capital Market Union might be part of the solution. + Investors neglect Turkey – Iran is likely to help Russia and China + Geopolitical Safety: Uruguay and Mauritius top the ranking as New Zealand is under review for downgrade

Contingency Plans:

Kind regards

Geopolitical Research Team

( to request a subscription to our newsletter you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com )

Disclaimer: No information or comment should be construed as investment advice.

Global Geopolitical Research, Switzerland, 30 Aug 2024

View Details

Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 20 July 2024 (public release on 25 July 2024, adjusted and truncated)

US Elections not over yet – Beware of the run up to Nov 5th Dear reader

The assassination attempt on former President Trump is not just a tragic event, but potentially also a watershed moment in US political history.

In our last report we wrote that America was experiencing a 2nd Civil War – one of acute political warfare. One in which the other party is seen openly as a threat to democracy. As I wrote on July 12th I deemed it a state of warfare, because of the heated political discourse where all options seem to be on the table and the goal justifies the means.

Many people have the imagery of the Civil War and say we are close, but not there yet. In reality events seldom repeat themselves in identical fashion, rather in similar nature. So, as long as people don’t see federal troops fighting patriot militias they think we don’t have warfare on US soil. But we do have political warfare – the casualties are often policy casualties. People with drug overdose, victims of illegal criminal immigrants, people without health care coverage, schools with mediocre results .. and increasingly foreign nations that underestimate America.

Technology, globalisation and social media are so far shaping this US political warfare. As we have been writing for months – the ongoing domestic political warfare in America is de facto forcing Washington (no matter whether Democrat or Republican) to use an ever more assertive Foreign Policy to shape public discourse and win elections.

With almost total gridlock at home, Foreign Policy is the only realm of free rein for any sitting President. This is being dramatically augmented by the fact that Emerging Powers are also challenging America’s supremacy. Few US allies have fully understood this and they are likely to be victims of a global struggle for supremacy.

The assassination attempt has galvanised and emboldened the GOP, but the aftermath of July 13 – especially the handling by the USSS and FBI – has added fuel to the distrust and anger in American politics. Thus, the political warfare is likely to intensify in the run up to November 5th.

We are not writing today about the Trump assassination attempt itself, because enough analysts and security experts are already expanding on it. We prefer to put it in perspective and to focus on the big picture.

America is not down and out While many see this intensifying political warfare as a reason to lose hope in America or to discount America, I don’t quite see it that way. America is unique and it has the amazing ability to adapt and recover.

When you look at the USA, it is probably the only Western power, where the political process is so disputed. But the economy thrives despite of that .. or maybe thanks to that political chaos.

In other Western nations people complain about the prolonged dominance or “oppression” of a liberal-left leaning system that controls the education system and the media. It may be felt as oppressive, because for many years there is no real change or alternative. In Germany many citizens told me already ten years ago that their formerly conservative parties CDU/CSU had become de facto centre-liberal parties. In the UK, analysts told me seven years ago that the so-called Conservative Party had morphed into a centre-liberal party. Thus, Europe has been in the grip of liberal and left-leaning forces for longer than we might think. Nothing against that, but in my view competition of ideas is healthy – The prolonged dominance of de facto liberal-left leaning parties in Europe has led to economic stagnation and geopolitically naive decisions with terrible results.

Europe has dramatically underestimated the importance of military power and military deterrence. America’s military power permeates every policy realm.

Source: US NavyIn the USA people with Christian-conservative values on the one hand and people with liberal-progressive values on the other hand are fighting for control over the political agenda for the nation. No side seems to have a total dominance. So often European politicians look down on the gridlock of the US Congress, but in reality Washington does what Washington was designed to do. To be in gridlock most of the time – The Founding Fathers were concerned about a state apparatus becoming ever more powerful and unchecked – they wanted that different centres of power keep each other in check. That is the strength of the America – Washington is under constant review, control and check. The never ending crises and scandals keep it self-absorbed . The gridlock on Capitol Hill at the margin forces the President and Congress to unleash their biggest adventures on Foreign Policy, not the Homeland.

The race is not over yet Many analysts say the race is practically over. But I disagree with them. Sure, the momentum of the Trump-Vance ticket is so strong and the infighting around President Biden so evident, only a powerful event could reshape the race. But that is exactly what is in the making. With a probability of 70% I expect something to happen that could shake the world and the elections.

Given the global geopolitical backdrop (i.e. Israel-Hezbollah-Yemen and Taiwan escalation among other conflicts) the announcement of the Trump-Vance policy program (GOP platform) as outlined at the RNC Convention and the reaction by the UK-EU-Ukraine to it .. leads me to ascertain that the last 5-6 weeks in the run-up to the General Elections will be very difficult and possibly full of distress.

Review your agenda and active risksAs we have written in the past – the geopolitical diversification of assets and income streams will be crucial in the years to come. While this favours some industries, gold, bitcoin and certain commodities, it also favours certain jurisdictions in the Southern hemisphere with better macroeconomic policies and geopolitical neutrality than Europe, North America and even Australia.Europe is misreading AmericaToo many people around the world have been discounting America for years. Especially here in Europe – it is fashionable to laugh about or even mock America. European experts overwhelmingly agree that America is down and out – in decline. They think they know America, but they judge America through European lenses (with our mindset). Wherever they see chaos, gridlock and faith in God .. they roll their eyes and see backwardness or weakness. In Europe the government normally is in control and it dominates society. We in Europe fail to understand that this is how the Founding Fathers structured America: with a gridlocked Washington, so that the individuals and the states could flourish. There is a reason why the states elect the President.Brussels, Paris and Berlin have overlooked two things:(1) America is not finished yet(2) A challenged America (in decline) will shape the world even more than before – It is increasingly using assertive language, sanctions and threatsIf we put this into the current global context, Europe should be much more cautious. It is seen as the most weakened, most vulnerable and most defenceless power – our leaders are making one strategic mistake after the other.As Russia, China and America struggle for supremacy and ..This report has been adjusted and truncated here. If you wish to read the full report or subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.comGeopolitical Research Team – 20 July 2024 (public release on 25 July 2024, adjusted and truncated)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 16 May 2024 (truncated and delayed public release on 12 July 2024)

*Title: US Politics to shape the world in next 6 months*Dear reader

Many people are wondering what is happening to mankind. The wars we’ve watched on TV over the past 50 years have misled many. Those were managed proxy wars. Total war is different and it will overwhelm many people.

Western governments – already deeply indebted – are running huge deficits and are now spending money (they don’t have) in the most aggressive way since WW2. The rest of the world is either avoiding to take sides or collaborating with Russia and China. The latter two are challenging Western supremacy and our West-influenced international order.

The world is on confrontation course and on many fronts the world is already at war. The war between the superpowers has already begun and is raging on the technology, commercial, trade, cyber, monetary and information (news) fronts. In these troubled times self-absorbed Washington is responding with an ever more assertive attitude: Collaboration is being increasingly replaced by threats and sanctions. You either go with us or we will sanction you. Can America get away with this? People ask me. Yes, I say.

We are expecting even a tougher course by the Biden Administration in US Foreign and Military Policy around the world. The President’s domestic agenda has failed to sway US voters in his favour and the Republican controlled-House doesn’t allow much optimism for policy initiatives. Against the current backdrop appeasement won’t get Biden a second term.

Watch US Domestic Politics and Israel We get letters from people that are worried about the world and that at times are consumed by what is happening in all corners of the globe. But unless we can discern what is crucial from what is a secondary crisis or “noise”, we will end up in utter confusion.

To navigate the remainder of 2024 successfully you will need to focus on and understand what is going on in Washington and Israel – or furthermore where Washington and Jerusalem are headed for. Although both nations try to show unity, they are not aligned. As we have said before. In geopolitical times “it is everyone for himself” for all nations.

America matters For years European and Asian leaders said America has reached its zenith and begun to decline. America is sick and out said many European leaders in the past ten years. We have always objected and said America is not down and out. But if it is in decline, it will be felt even more on the way out than during America’s century.

The in-fighting in Washington and the level of hatred and intolerance across the country has reached such levels that US politicians and leading US political strategists are increasingly saying “we have to win these coming elections, no matter what. The survival of our nation depends on it. Nothing is off the table”. They view the opposite party as a threat to their nation.

Recent US administrations – regardless of their party affiliation – are forced to take ever more assertive bets in Foreign Policy ahead of US elections. Some see evil plans behind. I don’t. It is just domestic politics making certain policies less appealing or very unlikely. It is the convergence of trends that is forcing governments to take certain actions, not necessarily pre-set plans. If you grasp this, you will be less busy with blaming some government.

China and Russia close ranks China and Russia are having an easy time in finding allies. Especially with highly vulnerable Western nations (gigantic asset bubbles and debt thanks to non-stop government stimulus) that are unfortunately too often using threats and sanctions in dealing with nations in Africa, Latin America and Asia. But discretely of course. Beijing and Moscow are seizing the moment, expanding their tactical weapons arsenal and accumulating gold.

Europe is becoming the “expendable” partner With Europe being the least geopolitically savvy, most energy-trapped and especially the most defenceless power, it is very likely that superpowers will take their global conflagration to the next level in Europe. Our assessment has been confirmed by multiple moves. Among them: China and Russia have joined efforts in gaining influence (if not control) over all nations that could be used to block Europe’s key maritime routes and energy alternatives.

War escalation risk at 25-35%The war is not going well for the West in Ukraine. Soon NATO and EU may be facing a tough choice, intervening in the Ukraine theatre in a decisive way (risking a direct clash with Russia) or accepting a Russian advance on several fronts. Something that our leaders are already saying they will never accept.

The probability that the war in Ukraine could escalate is now at 25% to 35%, the highest since the start of the war. European nations are already making serious plans for conscription of young people to raise an army.

My view since Fall 2021 has been a cautious one: We are entering through a gate that has no happy ending and that could even end up in large scale war. Based on our latest analysis even WW3 and the demise of nearly 25% of mankind cannot be ruled out. Remember this .. this war will NOT end when Ukraine and Russia sign a peace deal. Russia might strike at NATO to get even when nobody expects it. Moscow feels it was forced into this war by the West.

In its war preparations Russia has already scaled back debt & credit in order to shrink its economy. A lean war-ready economy faces a Western world that is highly inflated and over-stimulating aggressively. I am concerned about that. Our leading Western economies are inflating their asset prices and debt bubbles with no regard for our children and children’s children. It is all about short term politics and re-elections. In case of war our economies could implode violently.

Looking at all factors the superpowers have every interest to increase the confrontation in Europe first and then the Middle East. Then in Asia. In that order. Jerusalem could preempt this though and in an adverse election year President Biden could be happy about a new front in the Far East. Nevertheless, the powers involved in North East Asia have been strengthening their impressive military capabilities over the last decade. Unlike Europe, South Korea or Japan knew big military conflicts were coming. These nations are not seating in a multiple strategic trap like Europe either. But they won’t be spared. After Europe, Asia will be stirred.

Britain and Germany face existential risks To asses your risks properly, you can’t rely on your own view of things. Many Europeans feel for instance that they are not involved in the war in Ukraine. But if they would ask the Russians they would hear that de facto NATO, EU and EU-associated states like Switzerland are all waging war against Russia – to a lesser or greater extent. Furthermore, although one nation could drag them all into war, the risks are not evenly distributed.

European nations are trapped, but none are as trapped as Germany and none are as close to the abyss economically as Britain. Wars, 100% alignment with Washington foreign policy and mismanagement are impoverishing the UK at an alarming pace.

America OnlyFor ten years our politicians feared “America First” and spoke angrily about it. They were wrong. Ironically it was worse than that – Through the complexities of a globalised world and the sum of our own strategic errors, the result is looking more like “America Only” – America is the only major power in the Western world that is benefiting in a big way from all the chaos and wars. Most other nations – foes and friends alike – are worse off than in 2020, in serious trouble or very close to wars and the potential nuclear contamination from tactical weapons.

The Energy Transition, the war in Ukraine, the decoupling from Russian Gas, the US Inflation Reduction Act, the US Reshoring Policy etc. are just some of the recent big events that are impoverishing Europe fast. The main beneficiary of this degrading of Europe is America. No doubt about it. But we can’t blame America. In geopolitical times, everyone nation is on its own.

Take Britain – Before BREXIT many major emerging nations discussed internally about their delight that Britain would be independent and truly sovereign again. They wanted UK protection, UK weapons, trade deals and UK investments. Not so much because Britain’s economy was better than France’s or Germany’s. Not at all. They knew the world was headed for conflict and in war times you need strong partners that have military knowhow, naval bases, a superb military and can project deterrence. Even better if they have a modern nuclear deterrence.

Now, all these emerging markets have very little interest in UK deals or weapons or other critical goods. They say the UK has become the junior partner of Washington. If Washington sanctions a country, London would follow immediately. Thus, there is no use in buying UK weapons or goods – they can just as well buy American. It is similar with Germany. These nations are not so keen to buy German goods, because they now feel Berlin is not “sovereign” anymore ..

This report has been truncated here . If you wish to read the full report or subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.comGeopolitical Research Team – Fri 16 May 2024 (truncated and delayed public release on 12 July 2024)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 19 April 2024 (truncated and delayed public on 12 Jul 2024, 2.5 months later)

*Title: Day of Reckoning for Switzerland*

Over the past two years many in Switzerland have been able to keep up the notion that Europe may be at war, but we – as a neutral wealthy state – are fine. Thousands of Brits and Germans have also flocked to Swiss towns in recent winters and summers and to enjoy this Swiss peaceful prosperity.

But in a perturbing public statement Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has categorised Switzerland as an “openly hostile” state towards Russia.

We have to remember that in case of a war escalation, what matters is not how neutral we deem ourselves, but how the combatant nations see us.

*Wake up Call*While the Swiss consensus has been that “we may not be as neutral as before, but we are not at all involved in the war – hence we can host a Peace Conference”, we have clearly disagreed based on our independent analysis. We may argue about how involved we are, but we are exposed to war risks. We have repeatedly advised to make serious contingency plans and diversified some assets to the Southern hemisphere. Very few Swiss authorities and companies seem to have done so.

Moreover, we ascertained, Moscow holds a particularly bitter grudge against our country – the Russian elites brought their money here thinking it would be safe. In 2022 we froze their assets and implemented sanctions. That was before we gave tanks to the war effort. We should be sober and consequential and not pretend something we are not. To be in denial can be very risky.

*Schweizer Handlungsbedarf* – A Swiss to do list** The latest statements from Moscow add urgency to our sobering non-consensual assessment, Switzerland is not just close to a war theatre, de facto it is a potential target should the war escalate.

In the event of a war escalation following places could be at elevated risk: Zürich, Lausanne, Geneva, Payerne Air Base ..

Risks are very diverse though and as important as the geopolitical strategic diversification of your assets is in this decade, the safety of one’s family has even a higher priority. Ironically, bankers advice wealthy clients to get a 2nd residence to save on taxes, but it is often in locations that near war theatres and exposed to possible warfare and other geopolitical risks. The geopolitical illiteracy is not restricted to our political leaders.

*Swiss financial industry in denial, could suffer a blow*We can no longer rule out that at one point thousands of investors could begin pulling out their money from Switzerland and other fancy places in the Northern hemisphere in search for less glamorous but geopolitically safer alternatives. I’ve said repeatedly to bank executives “approach your clients proactively with a North-South diversification strategy .. before they notice you are behind the curve”.

*Geopolitically safest nations are now in the Southern hemisphere* In our global ranking of geopolitical safety these nations currently top the list: 1) Uruguay, 2 Mauritius (recently upgraded), New Zealand (under review).

We are closely following the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment of all relevant nations in our ranking. If New Zealand joins the *AUKUS nuclear military alliance* of the USA, UK and Australia we may have to downgrade it further. Mauritius ..

Geopolitical Research Team – Switzerland 19 April 2024 (truncated and delayed public on 12 Jul 2024, 2.5 months later)

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

Geopolitical Research – Switzerland 14 April 2024 (special truncated release only 7 hours delayed)

For several weeks we have experienced a slow motion build-up in tensions between Iran and Israel. Last night people were asking us if this is the much expected Multi-Front War in the Middle East we have been expecting since 2018. The question already shows people’s perceptions are shaped by mass media.

In recent weeks we didn’t see the need to release a report, but not because of the multi-front conflict itself around Israel we’ve been expecting since 2018. Today we do it, because our first take is significantly deviating from consensus and it matters for our ongoing strategic geopolitical macroeconomic assessment. Let’s say it as clearly as possible ..

Iran was not looking to destroy Israel last night
Iran’s aim was to upend the current proxy war paradigm – this matters to us all
Iran wanted to test the reaction times and triage of Israeli defences

A quick look into the tactical operational theatre: The effective support the USA and UK provided to Israel has raised their influence on Jerusalem in the short term and it is clear Israel will not retaliate right away to keep this coalition going. Britain was the only nation able to stand by the USA to defend shipping in the first month of the Houthi attacks. Now it was again the US-UK alliance shielding Israel and keeping the conflict from escalating. The still near passive and slow-motion reaction of EU states two years into the Ukraine war underscores how the new US-led global military alliance is building around the UK and Australia, not around NATO. Nations like Canada, New Zealand and Japan want to rally around AUKUS. Continental European nations do a lot of talk, but they are militarily too unprepared. The dismantling of 25 years cannot be undone in months – not even a few years.

The big picture in the regionLet’s go back to the strategic theatre and state the evident first, the Middle East is already destabilised and at war. Israel is already fighting Iran-backed enemies on multiple fronts such as Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Gaza and now Iran itself. It is an undeclared war, nevertheless a war.

In our first analysis this attack by Iran was not designed to escalate the conflict to an all-out war. Nor did Iran intend to destroy Israel over the past 24 hours. Not yet. Why not? For these reasons:

Teheran made sure US and Israeli military intelligence would learn about their attack
Teheran signalled a specific time-window that US satellites could confirm
Teheran fired swarms of drones first, giving time to Israel to prepare for the missiles. We think Teheran has tested Israel’s intercept triage
Most importantly, Teheran did not use its most lethal assets: It did not use its upgraded mid-range ballistic arsenal nor did it allow Hezbollah to launch a massive barrage of 10’000s of rockets and missiles from Lebanon, the critical North.

So, was Teheran being kind to Israel? Not at all. Teheran has being able to test the defences, triages and reaction times of Israeli air defences.

If it wanted all-out war it would have fired its fear-instilling ballistic missiles first – some of which might be already nuclear-tipped. Those missiles don’t need 3-4 hours to reach their targets, just minutes.

Why has Iran’s attack shocked world powers?For many decades now the world powers have been competing and fighting against each other using proxy wars. We all could pretend that we are not at war with one another as long as we used a third country and only killed enemy soldiers on those third countries. Even when it was obvious who did something, we played the game of “ambiguity”.

The dawn of a new era? Teheran has taken the lead and its move has in a few hours shuddered the big powers’ proxy war game. We’ve crossed into unchartered territory. This bears tremendous significance for the current war in Ukraine, where European nations along the United States of America have felt safe to get ever more involved in the war without being sucked in into combat. While America is combat ready and Britain has a credible deterrence, Continental Europe is far from combat-readiness. Unlike America it cannot spend and print money at will .. so it is both indebted and even unable to finance the first 1/10 of its military rearmament. This is likely to have economic consequences and add pressure on interest rates. Did Moscow encourage Teheran to upend proxy war ambiguity? Well,

This report has been modified and truncated here for public release. If you wish to subscribe, you can state your address and write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com Geopolitical Research Team – Switzerland 14 April 2024 (special truncated release only 5 hours delayed)

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – Switzerland 23 March 2024 (delayed release 3 April 2024)

Dear readerThis interview complements our recent newsletters.

Mr. Takushi has been interviewed by San Diego-based Financial Sense. The interview was aired in the United States last week:

US Interview with Financial Sense https://geopoliticalresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/financial-sense-20240327-Roundup-geopolitics-68ee1eb974e8e0.mp3* Markets ahead of big correction – They have not priced in the massive deterioration of Security over Europe * Flawed alliances – More alliances than competing powers * The World is at War * New Trading Routes * Importance of understanding other cultures for global analysis – Avoid miscalculations * US elections / Long view in China * Asia believes US will defend Taiwan – the direct clash a matter of time * Likelihood of War by proxies and other means

Contingency Plans:

Building a second base for your business or family requires good preparation and it can take up to three years time. No single location is risk-free, so a wise combination of locations is the best way forward for the next 5-10 years. For many persons and firms based in the USA and Europe the combination of Switzerland-Uruguay is proving the most efficient and effective. In practicality the combination of the Safe Havens Gstaad and Punta del Este are working the best. But there are other combinations – it depends on one’s needs.

Kind regards

Geopolitical Research Team

Research by Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland 23 March 2024 (delayed release 3 April 2024)

View Details

Independent Geopolitical Macro Analysis – Switzerland – Fri 17 Feb 2024 (public & truncated release: 13 Mar 2024).Our analysis is deviating from consensus at several fronts: today we will discuss the one area with the biggest “delta” to consensus.

The deterioration of stability and the collapse of trust across the Northern hemisphere continues to gather at a pace not seen since the 1930’s.

This deterioration is being increasingly driven by Europe’s mistakes and its perceived defencelessness and entrapment – something other powers are taking advantage of. I mean this very literally: Not one week passes by without a global or regional power making an assertive move to seize on the opportunities that a trapped Europe has created.

(Kindly remember we are not a news-wire. We have explicitly built this research boutique as a non-periodical source of strategic analysis. We only release an analysis if our view has changed or it substantially deviates from consensus. That is how we add value. When we release a report, we do so swiftly – putting the priority on the analysis and not layout design.

Events unfolding as expected?Those who have been with us for more than five or seven years know that unlike the press, we are neither surprised nor swayed by what has unfolded in recent years.

Since we have been expecting a security breakdown across the Northern hemisphere with wars in Europe, the Middle East and Asia – and they are so far evolving within contained scenarios, we are not wasting our energy to comment every speech and every battle as so many experts have done along the long war front in Eastern Ukraine. They have exhausted themselves and their readers with the technical details of a conflict whose battle lines are practically unchanged from a year ago. What commentators underestimate is that at that level of conflict they are exposing themselves to misinformation. In war all information is managed.

We stick to the Big Picture and to looking ahead over the horizon to see what is coming our way.

Are we in denial in Europe?A barrage of news over the past ten days coincided with the height of European winter and mid-term school breaks. Thus, it was a good time to observe and listen to people from all over Europe. You would not think big firms are leaving Europe or that the war in Ukraine is not going well or that our governments are preparing for a direct conflict with Russia. It is as if most people don’t want to know – Is it optimism or denial?

This is not “Cold War II”Humanity has entered a very fluid period in global geopolitics and economics – many unthinkable scenarios are now possible. I stick to my old assessment that a World War is more likely in this decade than during the Cold War.

Source: US NavySource: US Navy

What we have now is far more complex than the Cold War – which was almost black & white .. along two distinct alliances. All combatants were in either one of these opossed military blocs – you knew your enemies and your foes.

We have now huge distrust among dysfunctional allies and worse yet, we have more alliances than competing powers. Since the sabotage of Nord-Stream pipelines the relationship between the USA/UK and the Western European members of NATO has not been the same – and the more our leaders hail the strength of our Transatlantic relationship, the more frail and in need of some marketing it looks.

Our EU leaders may have distanced themselves from Washington, but this is wishful thinking. The USA looms large and will dominate the outcome of 2024. So, let’s elaborate on this big factor for 2024 and let’s keep in the back of our minds who is benefitting from the chaos in Europe and the Middle East.

First things first – Get the Big Picture rightAll world powers are now engaged and waging monetary, commercial, technological and cyber warfare against one another since 2019. The fact that no one has declared war, doesn’t mean we are not in a de-facto state of rising hostilities.

This is not “one” element, this is “the” framework in which you have to plan for your family and business.

Something ominous?Something ominous is happening in Europe: just as the prospects for the war in Ukraine are turning ever more pessimistic for Ukraine and Western Europe (remember the EU and Switzerland are not neutral), America is reducing its commitment to Ukraine in order to focus on the Pacific Theatre and the home front – yes the home front. It seems as if the many wars America has waged overseas around the world since WW2 are finally catching up with it.

As all this unfolds, most people in Europe are going after their lives as if

(1) the war was raging in the Far East,

(2) they were not involved in it, and

(3) Europe were not impoverishing

It is a collective phenomenon as the same is reflected in the priorities and policies most of our governments are setting on a daily basis. Just one example: I am surprised our European leaders are continuing with their massive regulation to further increase the cost of energy after we have been cut off from our cheap energy source and are facing hostilities with Russia.

It wouldn’t be really so bizarre if people would be more aware of what they’ve walked themselves into and open to talk about it. It would give us some perspective. If definitions and syntax are in the way, my fellow Europeans should take to heart that at the very least “we may be in the pre-stage of war”. Why? All major world powers are preparing for open hostilities (war) and most of them say Europe and the Middle East are the main theatres.

We live in an age of undeclared wars – it perfectly fits our Zeitgeist, one in which …

This report has been truncated here. If you want to read the full report or subscribe to our research newsletter, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.comOther topics addressed in the original report from 17 Feb 2024:

Europe caught between two unpredictable powers?
Europe outsourced its defence and energy
Most vulnerable coercible economic block in the world
US Domestic Politics – what we underestimate
Do European leaders comprehend how America works?
Russia, the other factor Europe can’t control
Why America is increasingly considering letting go of Europe to face Russia
If you’ve prepared for the worst, you can hope for the best
Some personal thoughts

Geopolitical Research Team – Switzerland 17 Feb 2024 (public & truncated release was on 13 Mar 2024).

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

We are releasing today a LIVE Interview Christian Takushi gave to go magazin on 9 Jan 2024 (delayed public release on 5 March 2024)

What is the next Big Event ?
The biggest deviation between your analysis and consensus? Deployment of tactical weapons
The biggest hot spots?
Over 120 conflicts around the world
Why are rich people getting a second residence in the Global South?
Why are Uruguay, Mauritius and NZ the safest countries in the world in case of a global or major war?
Geopolitical Analysis matters
Financial Assets are inflated
Why do you say are our Western economies a bubble?
Our inflated financial markets have become a risk for the global financial system?

Interview was run by Mr. Stephan Lehmann

You can change the settings to translate the audio into English – Kindly be aware that the exact meaning of the text can be biased or altered through an online translation.

Geopolitical Research Team – Switzerland – 9 Jan 2024 (delayed public release on 5 March 2024)

– If you would like to receive our newsletter, you can write to
info@geopoliticalresearch.com (don’t forget to state your address).

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

We are releasing today a geopolitical interview that Christian Takushi gave to the GO Magazin on 21 Dec 2023 (delayed public release on 23 Feb 2024)

Why weren’t your predictions of Trump and Brexit your most important ones? Europe’s Security breakdown
The West maneuvered itself into a strategic trap versus autocratic states
Gold and Oil
The WEF – don’t blame Mr. Schwab for all our mistakes
Dysfunctional democracies?
The growing state
Our problematic consensus
Why is Uruguay the geopolitically safest nation?
Personal thoughts

GO Interview Mar 2024You can translate the text into English or your own language on the internet – Kindly be aware that the exact meaning of the text can be biased or altered through an online translation.

Geopolitical Research Team – Switzerland 23 Feb 2024
info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.

View Details

“Resources Investor” interviews macro economist Christian Takushi to discuss the new currency plan of BRICS, the potential coming war and why it will matter where you hold your assets including Gold – Length 55 minutes (interview was conducted in German language) Fri 2 Feb 2024. Executive Notes (as described in the Rohstoff Channel) :

Christian Takushi explains the importance of the BRICS countries for us in the West. We are talking about the danger of armed conflict in Europe and warfare using currencies.

Please click here to listen ..

The interview in full length is a courtesy of Rohstoff Investor

About this independent researchMacro Economist Takushi strives to give a balanced non-ideological analysis on world affairs. He focuses his research on developments that market consensus is underestimating. www.geopolitical research.com is non-partisan, avoids the use of conspiracy theories and balances Western linear-logical thinking . This balanced research is truly independent and entirely analysis-based. It uses academic research, publicly available information, proprietary methods and databases. All information on the website is free of cost.

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. Interview from 2 Feb 2024 – 11 AM CET (Zurich Time).

Independent Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendationSince 2016 among the Top 50 sources of geopolitical research

A distinct and balanced broad approach to geopolitical research(a) All nations & groups advance their strategic interests with all the means at their disposal

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) Takushi only releases a report when his analysis deviates from Consensus

View Details

Christian Takushi explains the importance of the BRICS countries for us in the West. We are talking about the danger of war in Europe and warfare using currencies.

Please click here to listen ..

Audio of Interview 2 Feb 2024Please click here to watch the Video ..

The interview in full length is a courtesy of Rohstoff Investor

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. Interview from 2 Feb 2024 – 11 AM CET (Zurich Time).

Independent Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendationSince 2016 among the Top 50 sources of geopolitical research

A distinct and balanced broad approach to geopolitical research(a) All nations & groups advance their strategic interests with all the means at their disposal

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) Takushi only releases a report when his analysis deviates from Consensus

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist. Switzerland – 8 Jan 2024 (Public truncated release on 14 Jan 2024)

This is our first report in 2024 and I want to wish you much happiness and success in this new year.

Many people wish peace and joy, but while we all desire them, these two things should not entirely depend on external factors. Ideally, they should come from within. Some would argue from faith, a positive attitude to life and hopefully an accurate assessment of our environment and ourselves.

I hope that our reports will help you make your own informed-balanced assessment of where your country and the world is headed for, so that you can make good decisions. And through those decisions be more effective in your calling and be better prepared for what lies ahead. My hope is not just for my readers to have a better strategic diversification of their assets, but for their families and businesses to be well positioned for what lies ahead.

Many experts dread 2024, we don’t With so many crises converging and so many key countries clashing with one another and having general elections in 2024, many experts are saying this year will be a “nightmare” in terms of complexities and shifting scenarios.

They have reasons to be concerned, because Western economies have entered a complex 2024 with overvalued stock markets and unprecedented deficits, thus a vulnerable financial system.

But, we at Geopolitical Research love our task to analyse the geopolitical macroeconomic events of our time – we are thus not overwhelmed nor do we dread the growing complexities. In plain English, I don’t dread Mondays nor do I see a world full of uncertainty and zero visibility. We actually have been expecting the rise of complexities, crises and widespread deception.

A wise investor recently said One of Switzerland’s best CIOs (Chief Investment Officer) of recent years, now in retirement, told me last month over lunch. “Christian, I follow this simple approach: I try to avoid the worst events or the worst outcomes and traps – it sounds easy, but few can discern them. If people can avoid the worst mistakes, they can take care of the rest”

I told him – That is remarkable. In my geopolitical analysis I also try to identify the most underestimated big threats .. trying to make people aware of them.

We concluded that if we manage to identify those worst outcomes, we’d have helped our readers a lot. Still, it is not easy for them to avoid disinformation, delusions and deception. There are no easy short cuts to stay clear of them, but if your assessment of our fast changing world has kept you “comfortable” for quite some time, you may want to review your compass.

2024 has started with a miracle The new year is very young and one event stands out.

The miracle of Haneda Airport in Japan this week is one heart-warming positive headline that stands out in a week full of troubling news. In a time of cynicism and selfishness the crew and passengers got out of a burning inferno in less than 90 seconds. Divine intervention aside, what made a difference? Excellent preparation. This doesn’t diminish the miracle itself, for some miraculous outcomes are aided by the part we play.

We too hope that our readers will be among the best prepared people for the remainder of this decade.

Set priorities – keep an eye on the Middle EastOut of 130 conflicts around the world, you need to know which ones matter most and how they are connected, otherwise you’d be overwhelmed and confused. This year, we’ll need to discern important from not important.

Israel is currently fighting the 3-Fronts-War we have been expecting since February 2018. Iran’s allies have blocked Europe’s best Supply Route from Asia. But unlike 2018, this war can now – on any given day – force an isolated Israel to preempt an Iranian ballistic attack. Highly respected military experts from around the world believe that an Iran-Israel war could trigger WW3.

How much of these and other geopolitical conflicts have our Financial Markets priced in? A look at Swiss, French, German, US or British stock markets gives a clear but shocking answer: Zero. None of it. Remarkable as 97% of those conflicts are happening in the Northern hemisphere – from where most of the revenues of our listed companies stem from. While the USA can afford to do close both eyes, Europe shouldn’t.

This week Israel killed a top Hamas leader in Lebanon causing Western leaders to worry, because Arab countries host other Hamas leaders as well. Even European nations sometimes host Hamas leaders or their allies. Could they be targeted? But the subsequent blasts in Iran that killed over 100 persons have many puzzled.

There are now concerns there are parties interested in a direct Israel-Iran clash: Nation states but also Islamic groups. Israel seems well prepared, but it too may need a miracle if a war with Iran unfolds. Iran is a superb foe and highly skilled in weapons and systems engineering. While, in the very short term, this tragic event makes an accidental Israel-Iran war less likely, Israel has understood that Iran’s proxies want to exhaust Israel in lengthy wars, but the real source of the threats is Iran – Thus it has to deal with Iran sooner rather than later.

Israel has additionally ascertained in recent weeks that the appeasement strategy of its Western allies only makes sure that at a later point Israel may not be able to deal with Iran’s growing ballistic arsenal. The one massive arsenal no one in the West wants to talk about – we in the West kind of enabled Iran to build it, assuming only Israel or Saudi Arabia will have to deal with it.

Israel has changed Source: CIAEuropean and US leaders are stressed and at a loss with their Middle East policies since October 7. Their decades’ long appeasement of terror supporting states and groups is backfiring. Giving money to Iran, the Houthis, Hamas etc. has explicitly shown what those entities have done with the money. At least part of the money went into arming themselves to attack Israel and shipping lanes. Israel is furious about what happened on October 7th and how quickly Western allies turned away from Israel.

As a result Jerusalem is no longer listening to Europe and Washington as it used to. Facing an existential threat (one nuclear bomb or overwhelming massive ballistic attack could destroy the state of Israel), Israel is likely to go much further than Europe desires.

European leaders of course fear the growing power of political/militant Islamic forces inside their own borders – additionally they also fear a long blockade of the Red Sea with devastating consequences for their already uncompetitive economy and impoverishing citizens. On this track European states will have to print money again to finance huge subsidies and benefits .. ushering a new inflationary wave and higher interest rates.

Headed for wider war?Although Washington and Brussels demand an immediate cease fire, our independent assessment remains the same since October 7th: The Middle East is seeing a serious war and probably ..

This report has been truncated here. If you wish to read the full report of subscribe to our newsletter, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com Other segments discussed in this report:

The risk of escalation is materially higher than 2022Eyeing the worst case to deny the more likely?Israel is not Ukraine Europe most exposed?World powers advance at Europe’s expense – Self inflicted ..Experts say Iran-Israel war to trigger WW3 – True?No course correction – 2/3 of voters depend on the state Israel, isolated but not unprepared Watch the markets Personal words – Seize the opportunities While it is my duty to shed light on these geopolitical realities, I want to finish by reminding you that – contemplating all evidence – I personally don’t see the end of the world at hand, but rather a world at the onset of a difficult transition. One beset with many armed conflicts, some of which may remind people of WW2.

Such a transition poses many unprecedented opportunities. Of the kind that come along only every 50 to 100 years. Those that are aware and flexible will be able to seize them.

Thus, I think it is wise to review the strategic diversification of all of one’s assets. Since more change is coming, that which has served you well the past 50 years may not be what you need in the next ten years.

We said earlier that many experts have said they dread this year 2024. We don’t, we have been looking forward to this complex year, also to serving our readers best we can. I feel God has prepared me since early childhood for a time as this – even through what my parents and grandparents went through.

As usual we will keep testing our hypotheses and conclusions as soon as more data is available.

All the best and may God bless your new year!

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Fri 5 Jan 2023. (Public truncated release on 14 Jan 2024)

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist. Switzerland – 18 Dec 2023 (public truncated release 21 Dec 2023)This is a somewhat unusual but important update. No change in our assessment and no change in our outlook. Rather a call for alertness.

Many of you are responsible for investment strategy, asset allocation or your own family investments.

In recent weeks the stock market has been rising to new highs powered by falling inflation and the firm expectation that the FED will significantly cut rates in the coming months.

I agree that inflation (YoY) is coming down due to the statistical basis effect and an inherently weak economy – Yes, underneath the massive deficit spending by our governments and artificial GDP growth per decree, our debt-driven economy is weakening. Markets are behaving as if all that matters is inflation, the FED has to cut rates massively and geopolitical threats will disappear. They are actually intensifying.

Source: CIAThe problem is financial markets are solely reflecting excess liquidity in the system. Nothing else! Where is the financial media? Where is the oversight duty of markets and bond vigilantes? Are bond yields driven only by temporary inflation and not deficit sustainability? The truth is all major stakeholders are sitting in the same boat and letting our policy makers control our inflated market prices – collusion in silence?

This is absolutely remarkable – knowing that we are in an economy full of unprecedented bubbles, rather than being cautious, investors are ecstatic about the loose financial conditions and buying risk assets.

I even ask the question “is it really wise to buy inflated risk assets simply, because everybody else is buying?” It is not the case that there are no alternatives. Oh yes, momentum investing rules! I am not per se critical about stocks – I see cheap stocks for instance in Brazil and even Greece, but not in the Nasdaq or US blue chips.

Looking at the big picture: investors are not pricing these developments ..

Geopolitical forces continue to overlap and could usher renewed disruptions, shocks and bouts of inflation in 2024 – Markets are celebrating “inflation is defeated”, but they are in a kind of illusion: Consumers are paying 30% to 40% higher prices than three years ago!
As we have warned earlier this year countries and groups allied with China and Russia will block the Suez Canal and keep up the threat to repeat it as geopolitical deterrent to influence EU Foreign Policy
Shipping costs and insurance costs are rising
Energy costs are bound to rise again

This report has been truncated here. If you wish to read the full report of subscribe to our newsletter, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Mon 18 Dec 2023. (Public truncated release on 21 Dec 2023)

Research made in Switzerland Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.

No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.

For subscriptions, comments or donations write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.Independent research and releasing a report only when we deviate from consensus adds value. By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – 1 Dec 2023.

Research made in Switzerland Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.

No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.

View Details

Unedited Guest article:“Waiting for Godot” (and more Butterfly Wing Flaps): a Fed turn embarking on a series of rate cuts may be significantly further down the horizon than market participants are now pricing in5 December 2023, Ohio; USA

While it now appears the Fed hiking cycle over the past nearly two years has come to an end at a terminal rate just north of 5% (as a previous commentary I authored improbably explored and predicted well back in December 2021), traders are probably pricing in an overly dovish Fed once again. Hope springs eternal – as imagined and renewed Fed “quiescence” has been the story perpetually of this most recent cycle as traders perceive big money can be made early by frontrunning a Fed they falsely believe they can manipulate (compared to being late on a Fed turn down the road).

David Schane MA Int. Relations, USAPersonally, I don’t think the US economy is falling apart (and neither do real time “GDP Now” estimates from the Atlanta Fed). Moreover, we’ve regularly but erroneously grappled with the narrative of a systemic break or buckling in a vulnerable interest rate sector of the market (like regional banks, commercial real estate, or residential housing (under the collective weight of the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle in at least the past 35 years). But despite all these “logical” storylines of sector malaise and associated transmission effects to the broader economy, it is exceedingly rare for the Sky to Fall, especially since the US economy has many ballasts. Those include the US consumer who was denied the opportunity to spend and live during long and dark spans of the recent pandemic – who equally and capably refinanced his/her fixed rate home mortgage at the lowest interest cost in generations (accruing significant additional spending power as result).

Furthermore, I think the odds of a systemic sector “break” somewhere in the capital markets are receding rather significantly (because the Fed stopped hiking) and the market has brought rates down considerably over the last 45 or so days across the curve (which will act as shock-absorber and emollient for “stressed” assets around the globe).

As such, I don’t think there’s reason for the Fed to wave the White Flag of “surrender” at this point, especially as they would lose all credibility if inflation ticked up again after what would be a premature cut. Notably, inflation is arguably becoming more endemic too – because a full employment economy means Labor finally has negotiating leverage, arguably for the first time in decades.

That’s bolstered by an industrial renaissance which is bringing jobs back to America and a national security policy which is leading to reshoring of investment and CAPEX.

Not to oversimplify but offshoring is deflationary while reshoring is inflationary! These are BIG factors and dominant trend changes (that are rather immutable) underneath more contemporaneous weekly and monthly data – and will make the Fed’s current inflation battle more determined, prodigious, and persistent than the current two year skirmish.

As illustration of how long these international investment cycles take to change (like offshoring and the rejection of Just in Time inventory sourced and produced abroad), it took arguably the Six Sigma combination of the heightened Chinese economic and national security threat combined with the Covid-19 pandemic, combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine to finally lead these formerly deep ingrained production phenomenon to reverse in response (namely reshoring and reinvestment in American industry). Thus, geopolitical tremors and risks laid bare (accentuated by the shockwave Butterfly Wing Flaps of a global pandemic) now breathtakingly support full US employment and corollary wage leverage for American Labor (and possibly a longer term deceleration of the Chinese economic miracle). Talk about unintended byproducts and consequences! These industrial policy changes may also have been a realization among Democrat Party leadership that white male blue collar laborer’s votes could be lost for a generation to the GOP – unless a NEW DEAL for labor was forged (and economic “goodies” were distributed back to them), although “cultural” issues will continue to allure and appeal to many working class voters.

In any case, I believe markets (well beyond Gold and Crypto) may be positioned significantly ahead of themselves – as traders have repeatedly front run a Fed turn, to their ultimate chagrin and rue. This current episode is likely to be no different – as pre-occupation with these slow-moving but tectonically powerful factors (like reshoring and reindustrialization) are very likely to lead to great prudence and patience by the Fed. That’s especially since the Fed won’t (and CAN’T) let themselves be rolled by markets. Moreover, the so called Fed “Put” will not be nearly as vaunted and reliable as it was in the previous deflationary era which lasted more than one generation (as the Fed “Put” can’t be operative to nearly the same degree in the inflationary era we’re now living in).

That’s as the Fed would lose all credibility if they cut too early before inflation is vanquished – which it WON’T be for arguably a very long time (due to the dramatically different economic and security environment we now confront) as elucidated above.

Beyond these factors, I’d also point to the enviable unanimity Fed Chairman Powell has forged within the Fed. Despite stressful circumstances the Fed Committee has faced (navigating interest rate policy during murky and unprecedented macro-economic crosswinds), there have been only two dissents combined among Federal Open Market Committee voters during calendar years 2022-2023, while the Fed hiked interest rates by a collective 525 basis points. So even though Chairman Powell was first appointed by President Trump and was subsequently reappointed to a successive four year term by President Biden, Federal Reserve policy has been guided in a non-partisan manner with great equanimity during perilous and unprecedented times.

Contrast this oasis of institutional harmony, productivity, purposefulness, and the spirit of public service with the dissonance, derision, division, and dysfunction elsewhere in Washington, D.C. (particularly in the US House of Representatives and the Supreme Court) – and remember some in Congress would even shut down the US Government nor raise the US debt ceiling to make distorted political points. Irresponsible and elliptical actions like this would raise the Term Premium investors charge the US Government to borrow as they lose confidence in US institutions and long dated Treasury Bonds (which then only serves to further increase US deficit financing costs) – when reducing US debt levels is supposedly the grand reason the US Government should be shut down in the first place. In essence, why would Chairman Powell become less reflective and inclusive now (and respond precipitously to markets) when he has consonance and confidence within his Committee, when we need poised adults at the helm, and when the Fed has rather decisively supplanted the US Senate as the “world’s greatest deliberative body”?

In sum, unless one sees the US economy collapsing into a significant recession (which I don’t) or a true systemic fissure in a major too big to fail sector (like regional banks or commercial real estate which hasn’t happened yet, despite some cracks), I think traders should re-read “Waiting for Godot” (and potentially glean non-Western conceptions of time (like those implied in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques) – as the Fed will likely prove patient for longer than anxious (and potentially chastened) traders can afford. Maybe traders could acquire a little more humility in the process too, as “Waiting for Godot” (beyond its worthwhile philosophical and ethics lessons) reminds us of the Illusion of Time – and how small we individual humans are compared to these big tidal forces of national security and inflationary reshoring which will act as institutional brakes on an earnest, thoughtful, vigorous, and resolute Fed.

Guest article by Mr. David Schane

david_schane@hotmail.com

Disclaimer*: The opinions expressed here are the guest author’s alone. Geopolitical Research and the other contributors may not necessarily agree with the views of Mr. Schane. We appreciate other views and we cherish to be challenged intellectually. All external contributors to our website express their own independent opinion based on their research. At our website a guest article is a guest article – There is no influence whatsoever from our side to change its content. Thus, guest authors’ articles are not edited by this website – they are published in their entirety as submitted. We welcome guest authors with different views, because they often challenge our own analysis. Furthermore, no comment should be interpreted as an investment recommendation or suggestion.No comment made herein should be construed or interpreted as an investment recommendation or advice.*

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist. Switzerland – Fri Sat 25 Aug 2023 (Public release delayed to 5 Sep 2023)

Dear friend

This is our first provisory take of the BRICS Summit and its implications for the world economy.Underwhelming BRICS Summit – as expectedI really believe that China’s tone at their BRICS Summit has been underwhelming and cautious. BRICS are advancing their agenda without making any provocative statements. As expected, they are postponing the roll-out of their new gold-backed reserve currency, focusing instead on the use of local currencies to gradually replace the USD, but also on the embrace of Saudi Arabia and UAE into the BRICS.China also paused their previous efforts to push up US Treasury yields ahead of their summit to calm tensions. President Xi chose de-escalation and this means that the FED has now more leeway in the short term than expected.China aims for resilience instead of growth Beijing needs to support the real economy in the short term, but not too much. Unlike the West Beijing wants to curb speculation and move the economy to a lower growth path.China is clearly focused on GDP per capita rather than GDP. The West focuses almost exclusively on growing GDP even if their number of people is shrinking. There are geopolitical and security reasons as well. In that sense China and the USA are diverging. While Washington is betting on more growth no matter what, Beijing is prioritising economic resilience. China is clearly preparing for more geopolitical and economic confrontation with the West and that means a lower trend for debt and investments in economic self-reliance.Our Western financial media and investment industry are celebrating US growth and somewhat mocking China’s lacklustre growth (and credit woes). But maybe we are being a bit short-sighted.We may need to learn some lessons: Russia’s economy handled the war so far better than expected (despite our massive sanctions), because it proactively reduced debt, credit and growth in recent years. It shrunk its economy in advance! I have been writing about this since 2016, but for some reason our financial media never covered this deliberate shrinkage policy. China seems to be embracing a similar policy, but of course – unlike Moscow – Beijing has to cater for global demand, which may seem to us like a zig-zag course.Finally, the disappointing progress of Ukraine’s counter offensive means Moscow’s eventual need to use its tactical nuclear weapons in the face of a conventional defeat is decreasing. For now at least. Thus, short term we see lower geopolitical pressure from China and Russia on US policy makers.What does it mean for the much expected speech by Fed chair Jerome Powell?From the global geopolitical macro perspective chair Powell can afford to stay hawkish, “focused on data” and sparse with commitments. No need to raise the inflation target. He has to keep the tough line for now in order to be able to lower rates in case the economy needs stimulus.Powell sees that risks in America seem to be shifting to the downside. Markets have discounted a lot of good news recently.All that because in the coming weeks the USA faces a Fiscal Debate. The conservative GOP representatives say they were lied to earlier this year, when they were asked to support the higher debt ceiling in return for spending cuts by the Biden administration until September. President Biden has done just the opposite. The spending by G7 governments has been massive and it has compensated the higher interest rates.Please, beware that as we move forward .. US Treasury, Monetary and Foreign Policy will increasingly be driven by the domestic US Political Process!*Macro upside – Long term not necessarily negative for stocks* Without neglecting the fact that there are deflationary forces under the surface, the positive or upside of elevated interest rates (as opposed to the decade of zero interest rates) is that it will support the push for more innovation and more investments – with less speculation by companies. This period of gradual and steady loss of purchasing power could help G7 states with their massive debt while unleashing an era of high capex investments and support savings. All this may lead to 3-5% inflation. Among some Western politicians what they increasingly see as a good kind of inflation. Thus, in G7 government circles the notion is growing that higher inflation is necessary and not all inflation above 2% is bad.

The above notion also helps explain why the FED is hesitant to guide rates lower. It would lose credibility if it needs to back up with rates.

The US backyard is back in focus? All the above also would help Washington increase its influence in Brazil and Argentina, a region that it had neglected. Remember that Argentina may start using the USD in the near future. That would be a welcome additional demand for the USD. The cash-driven Argentine economy is not small.

Things can still shift, thus we will continue to closely monitor these developments.

Forward looking investors are bracing for a possible sell-off, but they are also looking to position themselves for opportunities, innovation, government-led demand and capex-led growth. There is not much room for a buy & hold strategy currently.

Much could happen in the next few weeks and months – so let’s be open and flexible. Contingency plans on the desk, not a drawer.

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Fri Sat 25 Aug 2023 (Public release delayed to 5 Sep 2023)

info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist. Switzerland – Sat 19 Aug 2023 (truncated public release 20 Aug 2023). Dear friend The next two weeks could be under the massive influence of Geopolitics and economic warfare. I have further thoughts on monetary policy and inflation that might be shared in the coming weeks if our analysis deviates further...

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Sat 5 Aug 2023 – Switzerland A round-up of big macro events that consensus is not paying enough attention to https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/D0Iovg6z1Bb The Podcast builds on and complements Christian’s recent newsletters. A round-up of big macro events that consensus is not paying enough attention to 1) Deflation is...

View Details

by Christian Takushi, Independent Macro Economist. Switzerland – 2 Aug 2023 (Adapted public release) In a few days the ultimatum against Niger by the West African Economic Bloc (ECOWAS) led by Nigeria and supported by Western powers runs out. The bloc threatened with sanctions and war unless the military reinstates the former government. My independent...

View Details

by Christian Takushi, Independent Macro Economist. Switzerland 27 July 2023. Growing state interventions & Monopolies are setting West on convergence course with China Dear reader Following the newsletter we issued on 22 July, we’d like to share with you some comments and a Podcast Mr. Takushi released today on the same topic. The issues covered...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Sat 22 July 2023 (Public release adapted 25 July 2023) With bigger monopolies and state interventions, is the West converging with China? On the surface it seems that two opposite superpowers are struggling for supremacy – a Free Capitalistic West is facing an autocratic China-Russia...

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Wed 19 Jul 2023 – Switzerland Will the possible launch of a New Gold-backed Currency by the BRICS usher in the end of the USD? Many commentators are making bold predictions about the demise of the USD or the end of the USD hegemony. But many things...

View Details

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist, Switzerland – Thu 13 July 2023 (truncated & adapted for public release on 14 Jul 2023) One month ahead of historic BRICS summit, here a summary of our latest independent assessment. For many people the years 2020-2022 were full of crises. So many indeed, they may not...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 24 June 2023 (delayed and truncated for public release on 27 June 2023) Dear reader It is time to reveal what I am working on in recent weeks. While the news flow has kept most people absorbed with the massive “AI” rally, the FED’s mixed signals, the tragic...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 9 May 2023 (Public release truncated and adapted)

Dear reader

This geopolitical research note concerns Copper, the USD, GOLD and OIL – especially why China wants a depressed Gold price.

I was up late last night analysing the results of the constitutional elections in Chile and the response of markets. Markets and consensus are missing valuable developments and insights .. on Latin America, but also on the USD, GOLD and OIL.

Chile’s surprise could strengthen Latin America & stabilize Copper markets The overwhelming victory of conservative parties controlling roughly 2/3 of the Assembly that will draft the New Constitution is a geopolitical and political shocker.

Over the past two years analysts have been saying Chile’s radical shift to the Left might seal the future of the continent. Peru and Chile elected leftist presidents over the past two years that promised new outright Socialist Constitutions. While our press blamed this squarely on social inequality, our view has been that this was mainly a reaction to the COVID crisis and the refusal of leading pro-market LatAm governments to follow the G7 in printing money to give massive handouts to their citizens. Thus, this might be a temporary phenomenon and with time politics may shift back from far left to the center or right again.

As the most advanced Latin American Emerging Market .. what happens in Chile has great significance for the region and the Emerging World as a whole. Less than two years after shifting hard left, Chile has made a significant correction of historic proportions.

Nevertheless, LatAm cannot not escape the agitated divisiveness and polarisation that characterises the Political Process in so many nations, especially the West. To their credit the market-oriented nations of LatAm (Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay and in part Brazil) are showing that despite the typical LatAm instability they are NOT what they were 30 years ago. They have somewhat matured economically and politically. In all these nations the market economy framework has ‘as a whole’ been kept over the past two decades despite changing governments .. thanks to the rise of institutions, the division of power and – who would have guessed – the stabilising role of the military.

But, geography, the inability to build manufacturing capabilities, the reliance on resources exploitation and the lack of geopolitical foresight means the continent will be buffeted by the coming crises (rather than benefit from them) and stay beyond its potential. Few countries will be ready to receive the exodus of capital and skilled labor from the Northern hemisphere.

Caught in the struggle between West and EastWhile COVID threw millions in Latin America back into poverty, the war in Ukraine and the Western sanctions have further increased China’s influence in Latin America. This has sounded alarm bells in Washington. Although President Biden reacted somewhat harshly, most LatAm nations don’t want to be exclusively aligned with China in a Multi-Polar World. Following India’s example, all major emerging nations and groups like the Pacific Alliance (Mexico, Chile, Colombia an Peru) want to be multi-aligned. That means, they want to have good working relations with all world powers.

Chile buys important military equipment from the USA and is for over a century a close UK ally. The stabilisation or containment of the political process in Chile will be good news for London and by default Washington. Just last year it seemed that the West had practically lost all influence over South America and that all that was left was small countries like Uruguay or Ecuador. Other countries had moved hard left and their new leaders wanted to embrace China by default of their defiant stance towards the USA.

But this year the “corrections” in Chile and Peru have given Washington again a respite in South America; at least in Peru and Chile not all is lost is the present mood in Washington.

Some room for the USD, but role of the Yuan to increase … While the Yuan and Gold are likely to benefit, many forget that key LatAm nations want to keep good relations with the USA to counter-balance their huge dependence on China, thus – LatAm is likely to say: YES to de-risking and diversifying, but NO to decoupling from the USD

Three further subtitles:

– Understanding Multi-Aligned Emerging Markets is key to predict the outcome of war on USD– Impact on markets? China wants a depressed GOLD price– Who/What could benefit from this situation? OILThis report has been discontinued here. If you want to read the full report and subscribe, kindly write to info@geopoliticalresearch.comBy Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Tue 9 May 2023. (Public release truncated and adapted)

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. Honouring the men that fought at Midway – Their bravery should be remembered

To subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

FS Insider senior editor Cris Sheridan interviews macro economist Christian Takushi to discuss the biggest Macro Factor affecting world events since 2020 and why Markets are getting the PIVOT wrong. Length 24 minutesMr. Sheridan interviewed Mr. Takushi hours before the FED announced its next policy move on Wed 3 may 2023.Executive Notes:

(1) I remain convinced that markets are still getting the “pivot” wrong, because they are not fully aware of what the Big Picture is. The pivot being the long awaited shift from restrictive monetary policy to loose monetary policy by the FED. Stock investors are betting since the end of 2022 on the FED signalling or beginning to cut interest rates. Many investors and banks are suffering heavy losses, because of this.

(2) Change in priorities for Washington – The threat emanating from the BRICS and heir allied large emerging & developing nations (62% of the world population with a larger economic weight than the West) that are challenging the USD and our Western financial system is so existential for the USA, Washington cannot afford to prioritise investors and US economic growth in 2023.

(3) While some big investors think Crypto currencies have no future, Takushi disagrees. He sees them shaping the future, but not necessarily as some crypto innovators believe. Crypto and blockchain have actually empowered both (a) the G7 governments to take effective control over aggregate demand & supply including their citizens and (b) the BRICS nations to challenge the USD and the European banking system. Thus, those platforms that choose the right track, are more likely to be able to be part of new monetary system.

Please click here to listen ..

https://geopoliticalresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/christian-takushi-final-2.mp3The interview in full length is a courtesy of FinancialSense.com

About this independent researchMacro Economist Takushi strives to give a balanced non-ideological analysis on world affairs. He focuses his research on developments that consensus is underestimating. www.geopolitical research.com is non-partisan and avoids the use of conspiracy theories. Our balanced research is truly independent and entirely analysis-based. It uses academic research, publicly available information, proprietary methods and databases.

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. Interview from 3 May 2023 – 4 PM CET (Zurich Time).

Independent Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendationSince 2016 among the Top 50 sources of geopolitical research

A distinct and balanced broad approach to geopolitical research(a) All nations & groups advance their strategic interests with all the means at their disposal

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) Takushi only releases a report when his analysis deviates from Consensus

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 4 May 2023 (Public release adapted and truncated)

Dear reader

After the latest FED policy moves, we have tested our working hypotheses and reviewed our assessments.

I remain convinced that markets are still getting the “pivot” wrong, because they are not fully aware of what the Big Picture is. The pivot being the long awaited shift from restrictive monetary policy to loose monetary policy by the FED. Stock investors are betting since the end of 2022 on the FED signalling or beginning to cut interest rates. Many investors and banks are suffering heavy losses, because of this.

Not grasping the Big Picture becomes costlyWhat is the biggest single factor shaping the Global Macro Picture since 2019? Emerging Markets are rising and now overtaking the Western nations in terms of economic power.

Having procrastinated during 40 years to address their structural deficits and having become highly indebted and saddled with huge asset bubbles, the so-called rich nations are now being overtaken by younger, powerful and confident emerging nations – some of them have much healthier economics than we in the West.

Change in priorities for Washington – The threat emanating from the BRICS and heir allied large emerging & developing nations (62% of the world population with a larger economic weight than the West) that are challenging the USD and our Western financial system is so existential for the USA, Washington cannot afford to prioritise investors and US economic growth in 2023.

The FED is handling inflation and economic growth, but increasingly also defending US strategic interests.

The rise of powerful Emerging Markets and the struggle for supremacy by America explains, in my opinion, probably 80% of all we have witnessed and are witnessing in the world in the past three-four years.

(Chart removed)

FED and Treasury defending US strategic interests The FED and Treasury joined the fight to defend the USD and NATO three years ago and they are still at the core of a concerted effort that now also fully encompasses foreign policy and the military (as NATO deals with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia).

The biggest priority of FED and Treasury is to defend the strategic interests of America, and momentarily domestic factors are a secondary priority. To overlook this comes at a massive cost as so many banks and investors are realizing. Many banks did not increase their liquidity buffers despite massively increased geopolitical and inflationary strains.

Even more so, because the collapse of small and regional banks would also help advance the G7 consolidation strategy of a “larger role for the state” along larger banks and larger companies as well. Therefore the demise of regional banks is to some extent a welcome side effect of high US interest rates.

I therefore reiterate my assessment that Washington will keep interest rates at elevated levels for as long as possible. Probably for longer than investors and business leaders may like or understand.

For the same reasons the FED waited one full year before raising interest rates. Markets said it was Jerome Powell’s incompetence. I disagree, it was intentional (“inflation is temporary” was necessary to maximize the impact of the rate shock) to put maximum pressure on China, Emerging and Developing Nations.

In a war, if something hurts you, but it hurts your adversary even more, you do it.

Washington took most Emerging Markets and BRICS by surprise, but now they are responding .. and Washington, we ascertain, has put together a plan that could allow it to lower interest rates ahead of the 2024 elections. The problem is the pain it brings forward to 2023 and the uneven impact it will have.

Into the 4th year of global economic hostilitiesThe USA is in an economic-geopolitical war with Emerging & developing Nations led by China-Russia. Although some of this did not originate in Washington, over the past two-three years Washington is smartly taking advantage of the simultaneous pain that diverse and somewhat independent phenomena can inflict on developing and emerging nations. We are talking about the combined pain the following is exercising on the West’s rivals ..

Higher energy costs
Higher food costs
The sharpest increase in interest rates since WW2
Sustained high interest rates
Trade restrictions
USD Liquidity squeeze
Threat of sanctions.

Unsurprisingly, we discovered that this is not just our assessment. Actually some leading Emerging Markets came to this conclusion almost a year ago. And they go further: they do not only see the coherent pressure these phenomena puts on them, they believe all of them were orchestrated by Washington. I don’t think they have proof of that, but that doesn’t matter any longer – whose facts will be believed in the era of digitalized facts. The presumed intention suffices, given how far the hostilities have gone.

Understanding this gives you a much better feeling for the time horizon of future rate cuts.

Ironically independent geopolitical analysis also somewhat restores confidence and trust in crucial US institutions like the FED and the US Treasury. It doesn’t take US politics out of the equation, but it provides at least a working rationale and logics for their behaviour where much of consensus only sees incapacity and utter failure. In a time when most of the American public has lost confidence in politics and media, to have some degree of trust – at least in the operational level – in the FED and Treasury matters a lot. And these are issues they cannot talk openly about.

Our independent analysis allowed us to ascertain ..

This research report was truncated here. If you wish to read the full report and subscribe to our research newsletter, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.comInvestors and business leaders need to adjust to the new realities of a world driven by geopolitical warfare and US domestic politics. Both are powerful forces that are increasingly overshadowing and dictating FED policy. I expect this to continue until the year 2029.

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – Wed 4 May 2023. Public release has been truncated and adapted.

To subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

A geopolitical Video by Economist Christian Takushi on Sat 28 April 2023 – SwitzerlandDear newsletter reader

This a year end analysis update to all our loyal readers and followers

A Geopolitical VideoGeopolitical roundup – World events explained in less than 40 minutes

https://youtu.be/EBuSt35xxX4The video builds on Takushi’s recent newsletters and you may find it helpful.

Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist sheds light on what consensus is overlooking:

1) BRICS have overtaken the G7 in their share of the World Economy

2) 62% of Mankind declares war on the USD

3) Emerging Markets could trigger collapse of stock and housing bubbles in Europe and North America

Christian brings to you the perspective of the non-Western world. He says their view matters, because the BRICS have now more economic weight than the G7 and the rest of the world has a bigger economy than the West.

Disclaimer: No part of this opinion should be construed as investment advice. This opinion is based on the current state of our analysis, which builds on several working hypotheses. As more data is available our working hypotheses are continually re-tested and if necessary we will adjust our analysis. We do not work with conspiracy theories. Independent Balanced

Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research by Macro Economist Christian Takushi – 28 April 2023 – GEOPOLITICAL RESEARCH MADE IN SWITZERLAND

This Channel has been designed to provide additional complimentary information to our newsletter subscribers. It assumes viewers are acquainted with our strategic research.

Global Geopolitical Research Team

info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Russian nuclear attack submarine Prince Vladimir before it went “silent “

Since 2016 our geopolitical newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide. Independent research and releasing a report only when we deviate from consensus adds value.

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 17 April 2023 (delayed & truncated public release on 20 Apr 2023)

The clash between the West and the Global East & South that has been simmering for months and that we said would erupt before the BRICS Summit in August 2023 has now come to the surface in full view of a global audience. The economic hostilities have gone global: A “war” has been declared on the USD. An unprecedented number of nations has declared in recent days they want to decouple from the USD monopoly and our Western financial dominance. Washington is likely to fight back subtly and ruthlessly.

As usual Western financial markets haven’t priced any of these developments, because since 2009 markets are driven mostly by excess liquidity. Economic fundamentals are only short term drivers. But this time, a major external factor outside of the G7’s control is rising and markets could be ravaged later this year. Just as they were in 2022 or worse.

Year of confusion at marketsAs we mentioned last December economic data in 2023 would be highly contradictory and it has already caused much confusion and losses. The yield curve inverted and pointed to a sharp recession, while equity markets and other risk assets rallied discounting rate cuts. After 14 years of government interference with asset prices and interest rates, economic data is distorted and no longer reflecting economic realities in 2023. We remain cautious with pure data signals for the time being.

Why we should not focus on markets too much at the momentKeep an eye on the big picture. There are several things happening at central banks and finance ministries of from Washington to Tokyo unsettling financial markets. A number of markets are under stress, with commercial real estate being the biggest concern for policy makers, but a much bigger storm is brewing. Since commercial real estate can be seen as an internal problem policy makers can influence, this “storm” is a much bigger threat to financial stability, because it is driven by the BRICS and a group of emerging and developing markets. It can therefore be seen as an external factor outside of the West’s direct control.

Our markets to run until disrupted from withoutMany are predicting the imminent collapse of our financial system since 2010, but get it wrong. I believe one of the main reasons for that is the following: The collapse or implosion of the Western financial system with its inflated asset prices and gigantic debt bubbles will unlikely come from within (as all stakeholders from policy makers, investors .. to media and retirees sit in the same boat and cannot afford to trigger the correction of their artificially inflated wealth), but rather from the outside. After our markets rescinded their fiscal and monetary oversight roles in 2010, only an external factor outside our Western control is likely to trigger the busting of our bubbles.

Is the external challenge we fear finally here? The non-Western world is rallying around the BRICS and the West is bracing itself for the BRICS Summit in August. Something is likely to happen in the coming months.

The BRICS have learnt a bitter lesson – They flagged too early their intentions and were almost wiped out by Washington moves in recent years. BRICS are now sending multiple signals, but not revealing their ultimate plan to unseat the USD and the Western monopoly on the financial system.

We have a global system in which de facto every company or nation that wants to do business internationally has to use the USD. When nations buy food for their citizens, they use the USD. As the USA consolidated its power through the G7 and later G10 during the Cold War, the G7 currencies became auxiliary currencies to the USD, making the G7 economies de facto beneficiaries of the Petrodollar system – This means that Europeans also get to print money excessively, grow on debt, live beyond their means and have their share of “pretentious” expenditures.

The rest of the world has had to accept the debased USD, EURO, Pound Sterling and Yen for payment. They say they’ve had enough of our currency dominance. But are they making a mistake by announcing their revolt without having made their new settlement platforms fully operational?

Some say the collapse of the USD is imminent, the Western financial press says it is decades away (which may not be an unbiased view), the truth may lie in the middle. While the fall of the USD may still be months or years away, the war over the USD monopoly has begun. It will affect many businesses, portfolios and lives.

The BRICS overtake the G7 in their share of World GDP Due to the many crises our world faces few people noticed that finally the BRICS have overtaken the G7 leading industrialized nations in their share of World GDP (PPP based). The fact that Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa have overtaken the powerful G7 (USA, Japan, Germany, Japan, UK, France, Italy and Canada) puts the current war in a wider economic perspective. The balance of economic power is shifting. Military power is also likely to shift in due course.

The surge of China-Russia-India-Brazil-South Africa is absolutely stunning. In the year 2000 these five BRICS nations had a mere 18% of World GDP compared to 47% of the G7 (the seven richest nations). This year the BRICS reach 32.1% vs 31.4% of the G7 (all PPP based).

The Purchasing Power Parity based GDP is the more preferred measure amongst economists to compare the economic output and well being between nations.

The non-Western World defies the West and the USDOver the past 12 months Washington and Brussels have concentrated their energy on isolating Russia and decoupling from China. Sanctions were threatened on nations and individuals that dared to deviate. Nations were asked to restrict vital exports to China. As sanctions were circumvented by many nations, Washington and Brussels have been announcing their latest round of sanctions against those helping Russia.

The world is responding: In recent days key nations like Saudi Arabia, Brazil and even France are daring to challenge Washington and have shown the isolation strategy has failed. Sensing Washington’s growing vulnerability, they are not afraid to distance themselves from Washington and to challenge the USD

Brazil follows India and Saudi Arabia in breaking the “Russia isolation & China decoupling” that the West has advanced after the invasion of Ukraine – In the harshest criticism at the West yet President Lula said:- Washington is promoting the war in Ukraine
– It is time for the USA and EU to embrace peace
– It is time (for the world) to decouple from the USD

This comes just days after ..

Saudi Arabia settles an important energy transaction in Yuan
India has openly increased purchases of Russian Oil – settling ex USD
Indonesia reaffirms it wants to join the BRICS and trade without the USD – the powerful ASEAN nations Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand & Philippines also agree to decouple from USD
Mexico says Washington no longer has any moral standing to lecture it – Mexico has requested membership in the BRICS
France says it doesn’t want to be dragged into Washington’s wars. France doesn’t want to decouple from China, only de-risk

The most articulated criticism comes from the powerful group of South East Asian nations (ASEAN). In a nutshell they say: the Western currencies and central banks have become a major source of systemic threats that don’t reflect the way their economies and other world regions have evolved. They emanate from Western excesses.

Twelve months after the start of the war in Ukraine, the weaponization of the USD (the seizure of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves by the G7) and their threats of sanctions aimed at other nations, the response of the rest of the world is now here.

The future of the West looks uncertain, because 2/3% of humanity wants to decouple from the West or at least to reduce its dependency on us. Much of the West’s standard of living has depended on the whole world accepting the Bretton Woods system that the USA asked the allies to adopt at the end of WW2. That system gave the USD superpower currency status and later led to the US-Saudi security-oil deal that practically forced all nations to buy Saudi Oil in USD and to trade commodities in USD. The rest of the world is rejecting the Western monopoly on the global financial system. If they see it through, our sanctions would have brutally backfired.

There are three nations that will greatly influence the outcome of the West-East conflict and regardless of when the USD falls, the actions that will be taken in the coming months by the 28 nations defying the West and the likely preemptive moves (strikes) by the West will impact currencies, safe havens and financial markets.

Emerging Markets: the West is disrupting our rise, conflict unavoidable The Developing World overtook the Developed World already in 2008 in their share of World GDP (PPP). Since then

This report has been truncated here for the public. If you wish to read the full report and subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.comBy Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – 17 April 2023. (Public release truncated and delayed)

To subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 23 March 2023 (public release truncated and delayed 4 days)

Kindly allow me to elaborate a bit more on things I wrote in recent weeks: Policy Makers are trying to slow down credit and inflation with a Banking Crisis (Credit slow down).

After the comments by the US Treasury and the FED yesterday, many experts are talking about policy chaos between FED and Treasury. I disagree.

Meanwhile we are closely monitoring …

Israel – multiple challenges
India – fastest rising global geopolitical power
China – Ready for assertive policy moves
Poland – redefining NATO and the EU
Argentina-Brazil – Brasilia has the initiative
Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia ready to shift
ASEAN nations – readying commerce ex USD
14 nations want to join the rising BRICS
Gold – the West’s no 1 threat?

.. , because they will interconnect at one point

The banking crisis is the result of an intentional policy move The current Banking Crisis has been engineered by the FED with implicit albeit reticent support of the Treasury and Congress. It is NOT an accident or policy mistake. It was a necessary move for financial and price stability given the circumstances. The Treasury is currently financing the US government to avert a default.

It is a risky move, but all other options entail bigger risks at the moment. It was and is the fastest way to squeeze credit and neutralise the “reaccelerating inflation” of last month.

Thus the banking crisis helps Policy Makers achieve three objects: Keep rates from being hiked too much, fight inflation with a sudden shortage of credit supply, and accelerating banking consolidation.

In America it will allow FED and Congress to increase regulation of smaller banks.

Sure we are in this situation, because of so many years of massive monetary expansions. In that sense the banking crisis is part of a policy failure and excess, but my perspective is that within this paradigm, the timing of current events is intentional.

FED trying to shrink our massive asset bubble somewhat before China-Russia trigger itThe FED had to use a banking crisis, because other policy tools are committed and it cannot fight inflation with policy rates, nor can it cut rates! it is trying to keep the USD as stable as possible until the BRICS + Summit in August.

The Rest of the World wants to challenge the USD and our banking system there. Washington is worried about what BRICS, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia + ASEAN etc. will do in the coming months. Bringing the weakest banks to fall now, on our terms, made sense. It also sends a message “don’t try”. Reducing the bubble is the best way to discourage Russia and China to time disruptive moves. But of course even that is hotly contested in ..

This newsletter has been truncated here. If you wish to receive the full report and to subscribe, feel free to contact us at info@geopoliticalresearch.comBy Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 23 March 2023 (public release truncated and delayed 4 days)

To subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 16 March 2023 (Truncated public release)

After several US banks collapsed and Credit Suisse experienced a near free-fall, people – all across the West – are asking if their bank deposits are safe.

As usual I will spare you the rehearsing of news-noise and short term events. Let us try to focus on that which is strategic and relevant for the long term, while still addressing whether Credit Suisse will survive. What happens to CS matters from London to Tokyo now.

One reason why so many people and even so many Western bankers are scared is that they think the collapse of US banks is a failure of FED policy, a massive accident and embarrassment.

It is not. This is where it is incredibly important to keep the big geopolitical-macro picture in sight. Washington cannot afford huge volatility in the USD until August 2023 and the fight against inflation should no longer be done with Fed rate hikes alone.

The failure of some banks is exactly what central bankers knew would come and some of them “quietly wanted”. If they can engineer “contained bank failures”, they can consolidate the banking industry and a banking crisis allows for a Credit Squeeze. That Credit Squeeze would be a very effective tool in Spring 2023 to bring down inflation, allowing our central banks to do an earlier or gentler pivot. Thus, the FED and ECB wouldn’t have to raise interest rates so sharply any longer. A Credit Squeeze has its risks, but so does a steep hike in interest rates above 5% in the USA and 4% in Europe.

A banking crisis would allow G7 states to tighten their control over the financial system.

The good news: Bank deposits in the West are safe for now, but they are backed up with the same inflated or debased paper money that brought us here. The risk is shifting from depositors to investors. It is key to understand the big picture, because policy makers’ hands are tied on many fronts.

Washington has set the toneThe US government last week surprisingly expanded deposit insurance to all depositors of affected banks. But there is big criticism about the US government intervention. Investors are furious that only depositors are protected – well, unlike 2008, stock & bond investors are not protected at all. For many investors and bankers that “grew up” with a FED PUT and the notion that the FED would do whatever it takes to keep asset prices rising, this is a rude awakening. Something only older bankers and economists like me can fully relate to.

One thing is certain – we live in a different world now than the one we had until Friday last week. This is not just for banks – the banking system is vital for the whole economy.

The move by US regulators is a massive one, and I humbly think the US government has done “pretty well” over the weekend, given the massive array of predicaments they are facing and the strategic trap they are in.

It was the smartest they could have done given the fact that the Treasury is stretched already and using its liquidity reserves to keep the US government operations running to avert a US government default.

Primarily a Western problemAfter living beyond their means for more than four decades thanks to reckless fiscal spending financed by money printing and zero interest rates, the developed economies of the West are facing another one of the negative side-effects.

Many Western banks took on too much risks or cannot handle the normalisation (rise) of interest rates. When interest rates rise, not only does liquidity supply shrink, the price of the bonds they hold in their balance sheets as core capital drops. In the case of Silicon Valley the losses in the US bonds proved too much and eroded trust.

Outside of the G7 there are other (somewhat bankrupt and) equally troubled developing and frontier economies on all continents – like Argentina or Sri Lanka, but for the most part emerging economies have run a much more disciplined fiscal & monetary policy than the rich G7 over the past two decades. During the Covid crisis Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Chile did not simply print money to finance huge Covid-handouts as we did in the West. They knew they would be brutally punished by voters – and they were all replaced by left leaning administrations that wanted to emulate the West’s largesse. We have to admire the fiscal discipline that has taken root in the emerging world. Thanks to a moderate fiscal-monetary discipline people are not desperately queuing up outside of their banks in Punjab (India), Sao Paulo (Brazil) or Yogyakarta (Indonesia) to check if their deposits are OK.

This banking crisis is the latest in a series of crises of trust in the West. Another confirmation to capitals in the Global East and Global South, that they are doing the right thing in advancing plans to decouple from the USD & EURO and from our increasingly “shaky” Western banking system. In fact these nations are advancing different plans to create parallel reserve currencies and trading platforms to allow for a gradual decoupling from us. It is – truth be said – a strategic shift from the Global East & South (I call it “GES”) to decouple from a morally declining West.

Why panic is misplaced for now – Credit Squeeze desired The strategic situation of the combined West is desolate and knows no good outcomes, but we are not at the end-game yet. Our policy makers are rather surprisingly putting up a good battle these days in long war that looks daunting.

As said earlier, a major reason why so many people and even Western bankers are so scared is, because they think the collapse of US banks is an unwanted disaster caused by too aggressive a FED policy. A policy failure. It is not.

This is where it is incredibly important to continually keep the big geopolitical-macro picture in sight. Washington cannot afford huge volatility in the USA in this 1st half 2023. Washington has several moving targets in sight, not just inflation. That is the huge mistake bankers and investors have made since last Summer, they have been exceedingly obsessed with the FED and its every tiny talk about inflation. Just that.

The big picture of policy makers .. in times of warThe G7 economies have one major problem, they are full of massive bubbles. To go into war with all your assets in a bubble is a very bad idea – FED officials wisely conveyed to Congress recently. Powell got a green light to proceed. Few people noticed this.

Most asset prices (houses, bonds, equities, art etc.) in the West are overvalued – they have been artificially pumped up over decades. The collapse of the weakest banks and the non-protection of stock & bond holders allows for some hot air pressure to escape the G7 asset bubble.

In my opinion the failure of some banks is exactly what central bankers have wanted. If they can engineer contained bank failures, they can consolidate the banking industry and engineer a Credit Squeeze. That Credit Squeeze would be an effective tool to keep inflation from reaccelerating and to bring it down, allowing our central banks to do an earlier or gentler pivot. Elevated interest rates, but with policy flexibility. In a war you need flexibility. If you look beyond the headlines, you will know that the USA is at war – US officials and Congress leaders have said it out loud.

Thus, the FED and ECB wouldn’t have to raise interest rates that sharply any longer. A Credit Squeeze has its risks, but so does a seep hike in interest rates above 5% in the USA and 4% in Europe.

The extra demand for US Treasuries should also help insulate the USD and keep it firm as we go into the geopolitically very critical 2nd quarter.

Much needed Wealth normalisationI think our policy makers are also seizing the current situation as an opportunity to “somewhat” correct overvalued Asset Prices – thus to get some Asset Price Normalisation in the West. Of course millions of people in the West see this this last ten days as Wealth Destruction.

Washington knows that the massive asset bubbles in the Western economies are a huge “Achilles heel” in their epic confrontation with Russia and China. Our massive asset bubbles are one the main arguments Beijing and Moscow are using to attract powerful nations into the BRICS. It is almost a matter of national security for these nations to diversify away from our colossal bubbles – otherwise our coming financial collapse or debt defaults could sweep them away too.

G10 central bankers can’t talk about this publicly, but they know .. the West is stuck in a Wealth Illusion that needs some correction – every correction is painful.

The West is simply not as wealthy as it think it is. We used to produce many goods and to have value creation, but 70% of the US economy is now mere consumption – much of which is on credit. In other words, much of this wealth is on inflated and debased Paper-Money. Well, increasingly people in Asia are saying we are paying for their goods in debased USD and EUROS, Monopoly Money. They’d prefer we pay in gold or a commodity like ..

This report has been truncated here – If you want to read the full report, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland – 16 March 2023. Public Release Truncated

To subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

Unedited Guest article: China strikes back – President Xi makes bold Middle East geopolitical move on first day of historic third term!Ohio, USA 10 March 2023

China’s President Xi opened his historic third term today with a stunning, bold, and powerful geopolitical thunderbolt by orchestrating today’s Saudi-Iranian agreement to reopen diplomatic relations. This rapprochement between two arch foes divided by mistrust, enmity, and conflicting regional power aspirations (exacerbated by religious differences) carries many implications. First, I’d suggest it makes Israeli PM Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu suddenly more reliant on the US once again, for security reasons and more. Under this interpretation, I believe such reliance may commensurately propel Bibi to consider a more flexible stance on the current judicial “reform” legislation tearing the Jewish community apart (both inside Israel and worldwide) because Israel can’t rely on the Saudis for offensive military power projection vis-a-vis Iran as much anymore (which until today Israel increasingly believed they could). Thus, Bibi needs to cooperate more closely with President Joe Biden once again and potentially seek compromise on the proposed Israeli judicial “reform” legislation (which would greatly please the Biden administration as well as Bibi’s internal opponents), as the winds are taken out of the sails of the Abraham Accords and Bibi needs to recalibrate accordingly.

David Schane MA Int. Relations, USA

Until now, Bibi was hoping the previous Abraham Accords would mark the de facto death and irrelevance of the wider, prior international peace process because Bibi could triangulate Middle East nations into one off treaties with Israel (as they both forsook the Palestinians). With this reading, Bibi believed Saudi Arabia could well be the next Middle Eastern nation to sign onto (as truly “big domino”) this “alternative” Abraham process outside the earlier Oslo/UN framework of land for peace and an accompanying two state solution.

Today’s sudden Saudi-Iranian entente reminds us there’s ultimately no real alternative, in the end, to the basic thrust and inexorable gravity of the Oslo Accords (even though they’ve appeared to be a languishing, uncertain phoenix). This implies further Israeli settlements in the West Bank must be curtailed and land must be gradually returned for peace within security guarantee structures yet to be negotiated as the Israeli occupation will inevitably sunset one day. That suggests there’s considerably less runway for a continued “land grab” by Israeli settlers (that the Abraham Accords seemingly suggested could well be possible, if not even greenlit). That’s as until today, it seemed the Palestinian cause would be jettisoned by Gulf countries in exchange for vital (if not even existential) Israeli security protection against Iran (including the Israeli nuclear umbrella)—with Middle Eastern Gulf nations thus silently acquiescing to Bibi’s hawkish policies inside Israel and towards the Palestinians, to save themselves from the menace emanating from Iran.

From a timing perspective, I believe the Saudis entered into today’s initiative with Iran because they perceive Bibi and even the vaunted Israeli economy losing luster—due to the extensive, ongoing, and unprecedented opposition demonstrations currently occurring inside Israel (and the resulting potential instability of Bibi’s new coalition government). Moreover, the Saudis seek an even more dominant position within OPEC+. That means they desire Iran to be a friendly, more compliant OPEC+ member once again (instead of a potential “wildcat” oil producer). In this fashion, Saudi Arabia amplifies its power as global oil swing producer and undisputed price maker as US shale becomes less dominant. For Iran, they almost certainly need Saudi oil servicing knowhow, technology, and equipment to upgrade their dilapidated oil infrastructure (which they can’t easily obtain themselves due to Western sanctions).

Furthermore, this China organized détente carries significant implications for the Ukraine War too. That’s as China (while retaining some semblance of “semi-neutrality” in the Ukraine Russia conflict, at least from an armaments supply standpoint) has now de facto moved the Saudis closer to Russia via today’s Iranian entente (as the Iranians openly supply Russia with attack air drones and more as key ally).

In sum and as result, Bibi needs the Americans more than 24 hours ago. This opens up the way for greater cooperation between Ukraine’s President Zelensky and Bibi now as well (two national leaders who share the same Jewish faith)—as yet another direct aftershock of today’s Saudi-Iranian accords.

Finally and not least, today’s Middle Eastern rapprochement suggests Saudi Arabia could shift (at least in part) from pricing its oil in US Dollars—which would weaken the interlocking and mutually reinforcing Petro-Dollar financial and military relationship between Saudi Arabia and the Western alliance led by the United States. Such an evolution would accrue to China’s great advantage—as the US Dollar’s global currency reserve status (in concert with its companion SWIFT payment network) inordinately amplify US economic might and force projection (which the USA understandably deploys in tandem to reinforce its security objectives and achieve its policy goals).

In closing, President Xi has begun his third term with an unexpected bolt of lightning as a multi-dimensional and increasingly encompassing Cold War heats up between the US and China—all while the Ukraine/Russia hot war rages on as a proxy conflict between NATO supplied Ukrainian forces and President Putin’s Russian military and irregulars.

Thus, today’s Saudi-Iranian surprise diplomatic understanding negotiated by China (overcoming deep seated Saudi/Iranian rivalry, acrimony, and distrust) represents a major geopolitical move on the international chess board in the ongoing shadow boxing match currently underway between the USA and China. As such, we can expect more dramatic repercussions and counter moves in the weeks and months to come as the nations mentioned here craft shifting and opportunistic alliances in their unceasing Clausewitzian maneuver for strategic advantage.

Guest article by Mr. David Schane

david_schane@hotmail.com

Disclaimer*: The opinions expressed here are the guest author’s alone. Geopolitical Research and the other contributors may not necessarily agree with the views of Mr. Schane. We appreciate other views and we cherish to be challenged intellectually. All external contributors to our website express their own independent opinion based on their research. At our website a guest article is a guest article – There is no influence whatsoever from our side to change its content. Thus, guest authors’ articles are not edited by this website – they are published in their entirety as submitted. We value brilliant external analysts. We welcome guest authors with different views, because they often challenge our own analysis. Furthermore, no comment should be interpreted as an investment recommendation or suggestion.*No comment made herein should be construed or interpreted as an investment recommendation or advice.

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 4 March 2023 – Public Release Truncated.

I have seldom had so many talks before releasing a research update.

People are being bombarded with news about the war in Ukraine, the growing sings of a recession, the central bank efforts to fight inflation, the growing risk of a direct NATO-Russia war, the energy transition and the growing US-China confrontation among a long array of crises and structural issues. It is understandable to see only chaos and overlook what is really unfolding behind the scenes.

The probably most overlooked phenomenonThe speed at which events are taking place in the weeks since the start of 2023 prompts me to write this. Actually I started writing this last night ..

I think it is vital to point our faithful readers to what is both ..the most overlooked current phenomenon .. and .. at the centre of the spiralling chaos of overlapping crises and distractions: G7 states are in a long but accelerating process of seizing the economy – this is part of a unavoidable (necessary?) comprehensive political-economic system reset.**

It is absolutely vital to see this and to monitor it. Without this piece of knowledge everything in the world seems chaotic and confusing. If one lacks this piece of knowledge one will be emotionally charged and even hopeless.

This is a process that started in earnest in 2009 as Western governments seized financial markets. In the context of the gigantic and historic magnitude of this comprehensive political-economic reset, Covid and the tragic war in Europe are accelerators (some of my peers call them distractions). After this reset, the world cannot be the same, it cannot go back .. not even seemingly.

The world economy especially in the West is experiencing substantial changes. Thanks to an unending array of crises our governments are in an almost continuous discretionary executive power mode. While some leaders are overwhelmed by it, others have come to like it. Intervening massively in the economy for the 14th year in a row.

Getting the causality direction rightIt is vital to understand how causality flows in this decade, otherwise business leaders and investors cannot prioritise and discern information fast enough or accurately:

GEOPOLITICS is driving the POLITICAL PROCESS, and this dysfunctional process (policy moves and interventions) is massively affecting the ECONOMY. The feedback loops are weaker, but still worth monitoring.

Not only is the state almost everywhere, the state sees itself forced to intervene and needing to increase its control and surveillance over the economy and businesses, ultimately citizens. Some see this now as coming from a state they distrust, but the main driver for this is not coming from domestic politics, but from the global geopolitical landscape where rupture of old & flawed alliances led to a transition of alliance realignments. The resulting “everyone for himself” necessity is the current operating modus vivendi. No nation can fully trust another.

Why is Q1 2023 special and 2023 an extension of 2022 ?Q1 2023 is remarkable, any seasoned economist will have noticed that the economy is now sending contradictory and confusing signals in a substantial and recurring intensity. That reflects the degree of years of state interventionism. I warned in December 2022 about relying too much on economic for 2023.

What is happening? The G7 economies can no longer be analysed by traditional economic and financial standards/tools. The G7 economies are now highly “politicised and intervened”, thus every serious corporate management board or investment strategy team is advised to get the support of a political or geopolitical analyst. To do without is at one’s own risk. This is likely to only intensify until 2029.

The only thing I dared to say is that 2023 is poised to be an extension of 2022 – a world driven by the US Political Process. While 2022 was marked by Pres. Biden’s concerted (brilliantly executed we should admit) efforts to win the elections. 2023 will be marked by the GOP fiscal hawks dominating the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. They are forcing Pres. Biden to seek an early resolution of the war – an escalation from Moscow’s perspective before July 2023. A risky process indeed, especially for those living in Europe.

Signs of the Economic Reset: economic data chaosMany important data time series are screaming “recession” while other key data are showing a hot economy firing on all cylinders. To make the chaos perfect .. after somewhat suspiciously weak inflation data for the November-January period (which led to a massive market rally), vital inflation data of the previous months were revised upwards in February. Something I have never witnessed in such a scale. No just the magnitude of the data aberration and corrections, but the way market participants behaved.

I am calling for many years now for independent audits of inflation, debt, GDP and central bank data. Interestingly, very few in the banking industry, pension system and financial media is demanding this. Independent data and audits are necessary to restore full trust in the system: when the same government that is printing money to finance fiscal deficits, is also giving us the guidance for inflation, fixing interest rates, buying market securities and issuing & correcting inflation data .. on which all the above depend, the conflict of interest is not large, it is gigantic.

An unavoidable reset under way The current path of Western economies was somewhat foreseeable 10, 20 or even 30 years ago. We embarked on this path in the 1960’s, detached from gold to ditch monetary discipline and begun to print paper-money to live beyond our means in the mid 1970’s. This started the period of Western post-war populism, one driven by ever bigger spending promises with money we didn’t have – nurturing two overly entitled generations that are used to credit card consumerism and instant gratification. Can you relate? “I don’t want a recession nor a correction, next government please!”. I am part of these generations. After 45 years of not solving any structural issues nor crises, but just pleasing voters with ever bigger unfunded programs and exporting inflation & poverty to the rest of the world, what we are seeing is the result of a massive convergence of unaddressed crises that are outside of anyone’s control.

Our Western economies are so over-indebted, consumption so inflated and asset prices so artificially elevated .. the only alternative for our current administrations to stay in power and to avert panic is to gradually increase control over the economy – which with digital currencies and the internet means total surveillance of society.

The solution to this chaos stares at us – but no one wants itAll along there has been a simple and sensible solution. To let consumption and asset prices go down to their natural secular trend level – the natural aggregate equilibrium in macroeconomic terms. But no politician and few voters & investors want that. That would wipe out 10% or 20% of current GDP and up to 40% of asset values. They would see this as a policy failure and wealth destruction. Fact is this is artificially inflated GDP and artificially inflated wealth that needs to be deflated. Several senior directors at five central banks agree with me that what many will call a wealth destruction is indeed a Wealth Normalisation.

So, here I come back with my unpopular conclusion. It is ..

To subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 12 January 2023 (public release truncated)

We would like to update you on some domestic policy pressures that are exacting pressure on NATO allies in regards to their support for the war effort.

I am convinced that currently the consensus as a whole is not paying enough attention to the growing pressures that the USA, UK and Germany are facing domestically – pressures that are likely to affect their support for Ukraine in its war with Russia in the course of the next six to nine months. It is not necessarily an opposition to the war effort though, it is rather a mix of domestic pressures and lack of money. All key NATO states were already hopelessly over-indebted before even COVID appeared in 2020. Three years on, their fiscal finances are in a desolate state.

The pressures on these three NATO members had been building for months and, understandably, they had not been fully reported by our media. But the fact that the Republicans now control the US House of Representatives – and how that majority was reached – has added momentum to those pressures.

The process of the GOP seizing the House majority was mocked and laughed at by most of the media and even conservative political experts. Many laughed at the Republicans needing 15 rounds of voting to decide who will be the next Speaker of the House.

But I think consensus has extrapolated the chaos over the GOP control of the House into the expectation that not much will change. But this is a mistake. Things are already changing.

New reality in WashingtonNot everybody seems to be fully aware that the new House Majority is advancing a kind of “pincer movement” to cut military spending. That may be just wishful thinking, but the GOP in the House has powerful tools at hand now.

Republicans now have a front seat in the «checks and balances» process, they set the legislative agenda and they control the committees that do the oversight of the US government and its institutions.

Thus, the GOP now controls the committees that oversee the US government finances, the Pentagon, national security, energy, transportation, the justice department (DOJ) etc.

The new GOP dominated committees have begun to work in earnest and the Democrats are not amused anymore. The interesting thing is, it seems markets are not paying attention yet.

The new House of Representatives has begun to ask uncomfortable questions like

– How can the USA reduce military spending in order to help reduce the deficit.

Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation. Honouring the men that fought at Midway – Their bravery should be remembered

To subscribe you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Thu 12 Jan 2023 – SwitzerlandDear newsletter reader

This is a quick inflation update that complements our strategic research newsletter updates.

Even if inflation would normalise down to 4% by 2025 the cumulative impact of inflation during 2022-2025 would have destroyed 28% of the purchasing power of peoples’ savings. It is a massive wealth destruction, but also a wealth transfer that benefits indebted governments and households.

A Geopolitical PodcastGeopolitical roundup – Why you should care about inflation explained in ten minutes

https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/0mQDktpUwwb

The podcast builds on Takushi’s recent newsletters.

Geopolitical Research Team

info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Independent Balanced Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research by Macro Economist Christian Takushi – 12 Jan 2023 – Switzerland

If you want to have instant access to Takushi’s independent research you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be viewed or construed as an investment recommendation Russian nuclear attack submarine Prince Vladimir before it went “silent “

View Details

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist, Switzerland 2 Jan 2023. (public release truncated & delayed)

Dear reader

Allow me to start by wishing you and your loved ones a most wonderful and blessed 2023.

A year ago, more exactly on 16 December 2021, we issued a concrete outlook and precise warning for 2022. We warned Washington would move assertively and use all means at its disposition to win the *Mid Term elections of November 2022 – To implement such a combined geopolitical-economic strategy, the FED would also do its part and shock financial markets. We predicted 11 difficult months* ahead and that after the elections the situation would probably normalise.

*Caution with high confidence forecasts for 2023*On 22 Dec 2022 we announced that our analysis suggests we should be cautious with exact predictions and high confidence bets for 2023.

Not only is there an unusually high number of possible scenarios competing in a rather mid-range statistical significance, many alliances are in a crisis. As a result, many governments are going the extra mile to project how united their alliances are. We see that in the West and the East.

*The one certain thing in 2023*The statement above doesn’t mean we won’t have surprises and crises in 2023 .. or that there are no “certainties”. In our independent analysis there is one certainty that is being highly underestimated by consensus – Actually it is something that has already begun.

The underestimated phenomenon that will accelerate in the geopolitical field ahead of us is that a large number of advanced and emerging nations have initiated a delicate process of reviewing and realigning their alliances. Those processes take not only some time, they take place under the surface and behind the scenes. The tricky thing for observers is that most nations will have a high incentive to pretend their old alliances are alive and well.

Officially of course, NATO is more united than ever. We are told the same about the EU. But that is for the media and the consumers of mainstream media. People that are in the “know” are aware that serious rifts have appeared amongst key NATO allies since 1 Oct 2022, roughly five days after the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. The EU even recently threatened to declare a swift *Trade War* against the United States to retaliate for a series of assertive US actions that are threatening Europe’s economy and future prosperity.

But because Europe depends on America for its defence, emergency energy supplies and the EU doesn’t want to weaken NATO’s support for Ukraine, European officials are cautious with any public statements.

Since most key media outlets in Europe are practically owned by the state, it is understandable that European media is not reporting openly about the true state of the Transatlantic relationship. Neither is it reporting about the deep rifts inside the EU. The truth is that at the height of the energy crisis, EU nations repeated what they did at the height of the Covid crisis: behind Mrs von der Leyen’s unity celebrations, it was “everyone for himself”. Just like Covid before .. the war in Ukraine has exposed how selfish European nations behave at the onset of a crisis – and how utterly unprepared we are. Our current leaders lack strategic foresight. Our leaders are in fact able administrators, managers and bureaucrats – Leadership is something the West is lacking.

Last summer a Spanish-German project to bring much needed gas to Germany was swiftly stopped by Paris, sending Paris-Berlin relations into a crisis that only the shared concerns in the aftermath of the Nord Stream sabotage were able to patch over.

Fortunately, NATO is not the only alliance in trouble. They all are. Just as Washington is not loved by most NATO allies, barely any Russian (Chinese) ally is fond of Moscow (Beijing). It is the shared crises and threats that is keeping them on the same alliance. Finally, even if an alliance is thoroughly damaged, it makes still sense to keep projecting unity. That is how we end up in a world with more alliances than competing powers.

*Rude awakening in Berlin*Source: Christoph Braun, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Hamburg 2011

In a rather shy voice an official in Germany’s governing coalition was reported to have this past October “the energy sanctions are benefitting Washington and even Moscow, but devastating us”. Four months earlier that statement would have triggered a furious storm at the Kanzleramt and Bundestag (German seat of government and German parliament), but this time there was only silence. Germany is at a watershed moment and the course Berlin will take, will shape Europe’s politics and economy.

To protect the NATO alliance the German press didn’t cover the fallout, but it made the rounds. A few weeks later, that concern was being raised almost daily in Berlin. With the German Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) in a desolate state, Berlin depends on America for its defence and doesn’t want to confront Washington directly. Berlin has instead chosen to warm up the collaboration with China and to threaten Washington with a trade war.

Sadly, the EU and *UK* are struggling badly with the aftermath of their sanctions on Russia and are both learning a bitter lesson – But as I am saying lately, no one is shedding a tear of sympathy for Western Europe. Not even Washington is much bothered about the tremendous pain its policies are inflicting on their most loyal ally, Britain. Britain for its own part is paying the price for privatising essential services while tolerating underinvestment and poor service for years – the state of its infrastructure calls for a total rethink. For the UK this could be a Super Crisis, entailing massive risks but also opportunities.

*France’s moment – London and Berlin on the ropes ?*Although President Macron was able to “save” the Transatlantic relationship last October-November with a few staged hugs and smiles at the White House, different sources have said a private meeting between the two presidents was ..

This report has been truncated here. If you wish to subscribe to our newsletter, you can do so on our website www.geopoliticalresearch.com or write to info@geopoliticalresearch.comBy Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland 2 January 2023. (public release truncated & delayed)

*Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly. No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.* Honouring the men that fought at Midway – Their bravery should be remembered (the first waves were obliterated)

Watershed Moments in human history

info@geopoliticalresearch.com*Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide.Independent research and releasing a report only when we deviate from consensus adds value.*

View Details

FS Insider senior editor Cris Sheridan interviews macro economist Christian Takushi to discuss the rise of state-run economies and the Global Situation ahead of 2023. Mr. Sheridan recalled Takushi’s call made initially on Dec 16th 2021 that markets will be sacrificed by the FED to cater to US voters, thus 11 difficult months lied ahead for investors. Indeed – as soon as the Mid Term elections were behind us, US markets stabilised. https://geopoliticalresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Takushi-edited-for-review.mp3The interview in full length is a courtesy of FinancialSense.comYou can visit them at https://www.financialsense.com/

Geopolitics: It is in this highly vulnerable economy our central banks have created, that the enemies of the West are advancing their interests. They could even strike harder. Our Central Bank policy is giving Russia, and China, (but also Turkey, North Korea and Iran) amazing opportunities to strike at the West and hurt the West’s interests – After warning for years that the FED and ECB policies have become the biggest threat to our National Security, Christian Takushi is now warning of the rise of state-run economies.**

About this independent researchMacro Economist Takushi strives to give a balanced non-ideological analysis on world affairs. He sheds light on aspects that consensus is underestimating. www.geopolitical research.com is non-partisan and avoids the use of conspiracy theories. Apart from treating all leaders, nations and cultures with respect, we try to understand & forecast their next steps rather than passing judgement on them. Our analysis is truly independent and entirely based on academic research, proprietary methods and databases.

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. Interview from 29 Dec 2022.

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendationSince 2016 among the Top 50 sources of geopolitical research

A distinct broad approach to geopolitical research(a) All nations & groups advance their geostrategic interests with all the means at their disposal

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) Takushi only releases a report when his analysis deviates from Consensus

View Details

A geopolitical Video by Economist Christian Takushi on Fri 23 Dec 2022 – SwitzerlandDear newsletter reader

This a year end analysis update to all our loyal readers and followers

A Geopolitical VideoGeopolitical roundup – World events explained in less than 40 minutes

https://youtu.be/p6FyMkHPMkUThe video builds on Takushi’s recent newsletters and you may find it helpful.

Global Geopolitical Research Team

info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Russian nuclear attack submarine Prince Vladimir before it went “silent “

Since 2016 our geopolitical newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide. Since 2022 it is among the top 20Independent research and releasing a report only when we deviate from consensus adds value.

| | |

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast & Video by Economist Christian Takushi on Sun 23 Dec 2022 – SwitzerlandDear newsletter reader

This a year end analysis update to all our loyal readers and followers

A Geopolitical Podcast & Video Geopolitical roundup – World events explained in less than 40 minutes

https://anchor.fm/geopoliticalresearch/episodes/Year-End-Geopolitical-Update-Europe-finds-it-has-no-friends—Five-important-things-consensus-overlooks-ahead-of-2023-e1sku66

The podcast builds on Takushi’s recent newsletters and you may find it helpful.

Global Geopolitical Research Team

info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Russian nuclear attack submarine Prince Vladimir before it went “silent “

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 22 Dec 2022 (truncated adapted public release)Dear readerI hope you are doing well as we approach the end of this challenging year.

Over the last couple of weeks Western governments have been discussing even larger interventions in the economy just as different entities were announcing their forecasts for 2023. There are a number of reasons, why we should take forecasts with caution going forward.

I have been monitoring developments at multiple geopolitical-economic fronts around the world that are becoming increasingly interconnected. In fact one could have written about them individually, but that would have shifted the attention away from what really matters .. the overlaps between them are gathering pace and feeding new risks. Having seen this before .. I waited to observe the overlaps.

Since the year 2’000 these risk overlaps are not only becoming a more common phenomenon, they have helped trigger the biggest crises.

Identifying a major cluster of risk overlaps may not necessarily mean a big crisis is at hand, it also means that our attention should not be fixated on any individual hotspot.

Risk overlaps normally take experts, investors and governments by surprise, because more than 90% of research worldwide is in-depth and highly focused on a particular field. The researcher digs ever deeper and very few are encouraged to look over the edge of their chosen field to monitor interaction with other disciplines. While traditional research is vital and important, the silo-perspective keeps researchers from monitoring the overlaps between different fields in a globalised economy and the risks they produce at aggregate levels.

Sadly, not enough independent interdisciplinary research is done on how monetary policy, the political process, geopolitical forces and shifts in defence are interacting with one another. Much of this marginal research is financed by competing states or their aligned think tanks (security institutes etc.).

Watch aggregate levels in 2023 – the big picture I sense that as we move into 2023 what matters most is not one particular hotspot, but how the current hotspots are connecting with one another and reinforcing strategic trends that will impact policy, markets and national security. A global crisis may manifest itself in one particular hotspot, but only as a result of a massive build-up of pressure over multiple risk clusters involving several areas of friction.

Geopolitical fronts begin to overlap ahead of Christmas 2022From all the geopolitical-economic fronts we are currently monitoring seven of them stand out and are getting our attention. This is an unusually high number. In the crises of the past decade 3-5 forces overlapped and created havoc that took the world by surprise. It is thus possible that their number may come down in the coming weeks. Otherwise we will be dealing with a Super Crisis or a major shift or far-reaching reform. While the number of overlapping hotspots is high, the intensity of the overall risk cluster (probability of blow up in a crisis) is not very high yet.

Many experts and investors were taken by surprise by powerful events in recent years, because they focused on hotspots, mainstream media and highly polarised opinion. As you may have noticed, we don’t report about something that media goes “crazy” about. Our attention is often already somewhere else. To us that is a distraction.

A super cluster of risk overlapsIn this report I mention the seven geopolitical-economic fronts behind the overlaps we are closely watching and that we need to keep an eye on as we transition into 2023. While normally only two-three are interconnected with one another in a cluster, at aggregate levels several clusters are overlapping – producing currently a rare super cluster of geopolitical competition and friction.

On the current path this super cluster could unleash a new major economic, geopolitical or military crisis. But such an environment can also be conducive for a sweeping change or reset that people wouldn’t otherwise accept. Allow me to give you an example. Many economists are expecting the default of G7 economies and the massive devaluation of our already “debased” paper currencies. I’ a bit more cautious with that: Yes, the G7 are on track for default, but if you are on that track how about taking on more debt and creating inflation to usher in a crisis that would make a “reset with a new currency” more acceptable than a straightforward default and currency devaluation. The former is change by crises, the latter risks a total loss of trust in government and its deposition. That is no necessarily evil intent, but rather risk mitigation.

As we go into 2023 we are dealing with a tricky and complex cluster, because almost half of those bitter competitions and frictions are taking place amongst so-called allies. With nations in a pre-state of war and allies in bitter competitions .. behind the warm imagery of friendship they are distrusting one another and using all policy means at their disposal to protect their national interests. With their domestic economies in crisis and fiscal finances nearing bankruptcy-default territory, official statistics are understandably compromised and official media narratives not something we can rely upon. This is specially the case for the G7 and to some extent for G20 economies as well.

Seven Geopolitical Fronts (Hot spots) forming risk clustersHere the list of geopolitical fronts and areas of friction contributing to the current super risk cluster:

This report has been truncated here. If you want to read the full report, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com or subscribe to our newsletter on our websiteUpcoming reportsIn the days ahead I will be releasing analysis about some of the geopolitical-economic areas that I am closely monitoring these days. These are the fronts & hotspots over which the risk clusters have formed.

Before year end I will also be releasing a special geopolitical research report titled “The world in 2023 – everyone for himself”. That is how nation states are entering the new year. Oriental nations have a major advantage in the time that lies ahead, they are used to base alliances on common interests, not on friendship. The nations that are likely to suffer the most are those that have been relying on special friendships and asymmetric alliances. Some of you will have already guessed that nations like Britain and Germany are at the highest risk of system-shattering devastations as their recent inward-focus have led them to overlook the traps they have gone into.

Why investors may want to be careful with high confidence bets as we enter 2023 By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist. Switzerland 22 Dec 2022 – (truncated adapted public release)

*Geopolitical and economic conditions need close monitoring, because they can change suddenly.*

*No part of this analysis should be taken or construed as an investment recommendation.*

info@geopoliticalresearch.com

Remembering the brave US airmen at Midway

*Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide. Now among the top 20.
Independent research and releasing a report only when we deviate from consensus adds value.*

View Details

Unedited Guest article: “Liberty Enlightening the World”: How The Statue of Liberty can inspire a GOP rebuild after the November 2022 elections 13 November 2022 – Ohio USA Looking at recent US elections on the Sunday morning after, it appears a threadbare GOP House majority (NBC news is now projecting a House majority of 219-216 –...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist. Switzerland 9 Nov 2022 (truncated public release) the last 24 hours have been remarkable. Analysts and commentators are trying to grasp and understand all the surprises that the American people have delivered. In fact we can say that the polls and experts did not foresee the results that we are...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – Switzerland 8 Nov 2022 (a special early release to the public) Greetings to you on election day. I have re-run my US political analysis this afternoon. Later this evening and tonight America is electing a new House of Representatives and re-shaping the US Senate. Key states are also electing a new...

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Sun 23 Oct 2022 – Switzerland Dear newsletter reader Following the news that Mr. Boris Johnson may be pulling out of the race, Mr. Takushi recorded a 25 minute podcast this Sunday evening – addressing the race for new Prime Minister in the UK. This will matter...

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Thu 20 Oct 2022 – Switzerland Dear friend Mr. Takushi broadcast a 25 minute podcast this Thursday 20 October focusing on the resignation of the British prime minister. This is a supplementary service for our newsletter readers. It assumes the listener is acquainted with our strategic research....

View Details

Liz Truss: an Early Assessment on the Prime Minister who shook the world with her Massive Butterfly Wings. Nobody does it Better! 20 October, 2022 Ohio USA What an incredible six week “shock” Liz Truss left behind on so many important fronts. As historical and potentially enduring legacy, governments must now be especially careful about...

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Sunday 25 Sep 2022 – Switzerland Dear friend Mr. Takushi broadcast a 20 minute podcast this Sunday 25 September focusing on the triple shock: strong USD, steep rise in interest rates and record high energy prices. Europe is the biggest victim of this US policy moves. This...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist. Switzerland 23 Sep 2022 (Public release on 24 Sep 2022 truncated) After eleven extraordinary days when the world of politics and geopolitics stood still to pay tribute to one the greatest leaders of our time, the global geopolitical struggle has resumed with force. The USA is waging a smart war against...

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Sunday 18 Sep 2022 – Switzerland Dear friend Mr. Takushi broadcast a 30 minute podcast yesterday – a roundup of geopolitical and macro developments around the world. This is a supplementary service for our newsletter readers. It assumes the listener is acquainted with our strategic research. The...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland 11 Sep 2022 (public release has been truncated and adapted) The passing of her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II has shocked the world and is likely to have political and geopolitical implications. This sad event is absolutely remarkable and historic. It is reminding us all that Britain is a monarchy...

View Details

FS Insider interviewed macro economist Christian Takushi this Tuesday 30 August 2022 to discuss the energy crisis in Europe, FED policy and market expectations. Christian reiterated the call he made on Dec 16th 2021 that markets will be sacrificed by the FED to cater to voters, thus 10 difficult months lied ahead for investors. Christian...

View Details

A geopolitical keynote speech by Economist Christian Takushi on 23 August 2022 – Switzerland Dear friend Mr. Takushi was honoured to give the opening speech at an important business conference. A Geopolitical Speech Geopolitical outlook – World events explained in 30 minutes https://www.thebroker.ch/versicherungsbroker-forum-christian-takushi/ As written by journalist Binci Heeb (Original in German): Macro economist...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – 19 Jul 2022 – Switzerland (delayed & truncated on 15 Aug 2022). During this quiet part of the summer, not many people are expecting an update from me at this moment. But sometimes the pressures brewing under the surface make more lasting impact than the public announcements of our...

View Details

An ecomomic-geopolitical panel discussion with Christian Takushi and Artemiza Woodgate PhD on 21 July 2022, USA-UK-Switzerland (delayed public release 14 Aug 2022). Dear reader Dr. Woodgate and Mr. Takushi were hosted by Mr. Dean Murphy of Neudata to take part in a panel discussion sponsored by Morgan Stanley on the complex drivers of inflation. Mr....

View Details

A geopolitical Podcast by Economist Christian Takushi on Sunday 24 July 2022 – Switzerland Dear friend Mr. Takushi broadcast a 28 minute podcast yesterday – a roundup of geopolitical and macro developments around the world. This is a supplementary service for our newsletter readers. It assumes the listener is acquainted with our strategic research. The content...

View Details

On 21 July 2022 our strategist Christian Takushi (Switzerland) was part of an INFLATION Panel with Artemiza Woodgate PhD (USA) at a Neudata / Morgan Stanley Seminar. They were hosted by Dean Murphy in London. The recording is a courtesy of Neudata in the UK. Kindly klick the following link : The Complex Economic Forces...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, 15 July 2022 (delayed truncated public release on 19 July 2022). Dear reader Before I dive into the main topic of this research report, I want to address a very present issue: Inflation in the USA has just hit a new 40 year record as consumer prices surprised on the...

View Details

Geopolitical Video by independent Economist Christian Takushi – Friday 11 June 2022 – Switzerland Dear reader Mr. Takushi broadcast a 30 minute video last night – a roundup of key geopolitical and macro developments around the world. Covering ten major developments. Pay attention to the growing interconnection between those hot spots. This is a supplementary...

View Details

Geopolitical Podcast by independent Economist Christian Takushi – Friday 10 June 2022 – Switzerland Dear reader Mr. Takushi broadcast a 30 minute podcast last night – a roundup of key geopolitical and macro developments around the world. This is a supplementary service for our newsletter readers. But as a courtesy we are informing our seminar...

View Details

LINK TO PODCAST – 10 min Podcast from Monday 6 June 2022 Dear friend Mr. Takushi broadcast a Podcast on the afternoon of Monday June 6th 2022 to share his independent analysis on why – weighing pros and cons – it is in the best interest of the UK and the world to keep Prime...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 4 Jun 2022 (truncated text for the public) Let’s remember with gratitude the brave US torpedo and dive bomber pilots – around this time on a day like this June 4th 1942 the Japanese and US navies launched their first attacks on each other. Three days later the...

View Details

Geopolitical economic adviser Christian Takushi was interviewed by US journalist Ron Myers on 18 May 2022: Despite massive pressures, 82 nations are defying the West. “The West is increasingly isolated – Non-aligned nations increasingly defy the West ” In our righteous anger about the desolation that has befallen the Ukrainian people and the war, many...

View Details

Interview vom 12 Mai 2022 in Zurich mit Journalisten York Runne Christian Takushi vertritt oftmals Ansichten, die vom politischen und medialen Konsens in der Schweiz abweichen. Gegenüber finews.ch zeichnet der Berater und Ex-Banker mit Blick auf den Ukrainekrieg und die Konjunktur ein Bild voller Risiken und harten Realitäten. «Die westliche Sicht auf den Ukrainekrieg ist nicht die...

View Details

Christian Takushi (Image: geopoliticalresearch.com) Interview from Friday, 13 May 2022 11:28 Christian Takushi: «The West Is More Isolated Than Ever» Geopolitical economic advisor Christian Takushi, known in Switzerland for his contrary viewpoints and perspectives, drew a future scenario laden with risks and harsh realities in an interview with finews.com. «The Western’s view of the Ukraine war is...

View Details

An unprecedented wave of solidarity is bringing governments and people together in a form not seen on the continent for many decades. A more united Europe For years I have spoken at conferences to share my non-consensus forecast that I see an unprecedented convergence of crises forcing European nations to work together .. and eventually...

View Details

Complimentary Gift to our non-paying newsletter readers Latest Geopolitical Podcasts Dear friend we’d like to share with you the links to recent geopolitical podcasts by Christian Takushi. Given the fast and fluid pace of world events and rampant disinformation, we are complementing our Newsletter’s in depth research with these podcasts (timely comments). Takushi recently shared our independent...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – 8 days delayed & truncated release to the public on 23 Jan 2022 Dear reader this year promises to be a challenging one for the world economy, financial markets and the West. Review In November we addressed Fed policy by highlighting that Powell II is not the same as...

View Details

FS Insider interviewed macro economist Christian Takushi this Wednesday 12 January 2022 to discuss FED Policy and Interest Rates. Christian explains how markets are unprepared for what is coming. Misled, they are focusing on guessing the number of rate hikes – which is not really the issue in 2022. Consensus thinks the FED has had...

View Details

Guest article by David Schane, Ohio, USA – 30 Dec 2021 For many reasons, I believe inflation will be difficult to extinguish (see recent oil production article link here as just one supporting reference). And the longer inflation runs “hot”, paradoxically the more entrenched it becomes as workers (who are already in short supply, quitting...

View Details

By Christian Takushi Macro Economist – Switzerland 17 Dec 2021 12 min PODCAST: 10 difficult months for investors ahead Investors are in for a rude 2022. Situation for Democrats is much worse than what the Financial Press and the Media are showing. This explains the pressure Pres. Biden is putting on his new FED chief...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist, 20 Nov 2021 (public release delayed & truncated 28 Nov 2021) Executive Summary: For half a century the biggest threat to civilization was a frightening excess of nuclear weapons, but over the past 12 years and surely since Spring 2020 it is the frightening excess of paper...

View Details

US journalist Ron Myers interviews economist Christian Takushi on Western governments efforts to spark inflation (courtesy of Lifestyle Radio, France) The G7 governments’ need of inflation is probably not so much the design of an evil-intended policy making elite, but rather a multi-decade process that we are all part of. Even the money printing that...

View Details

The truth about inflation in 9 minutes – A truly independent view. All over the world prices are jumping and governments and financial experts are blaming China, Russia, miners, meat packers, even the wind for higher prices. The truth is G7 governments’ Monetary Policy has created this. We should be cautious when they say...

View Details

Macro economist Christian Takushi gives a global round-up of 4 areas where he sees a big deviation from consensus: 1) Energy crisis: it is not due to Covid or Russia. It is the Green shift and our own Monetary Policy that is driving this 2) AUKUS – UK and USA build foundation for new global...

View Details

By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist – 21 Sep 2021

A strange kind of housing crisis is unfolding across the Western world, and our analysis strongly deviates from what consensus is embracing and advancing as a solution: more government intervention.

There are many things happening around the world that we are monitoring and where our analysis deviates from consensus, but we think this issue is a highly important one that deserves your attention. Why? The current coverage is misleading. Moreover, the current housing crisis is likely to thrust Western democracies into a political disarray that will allow governments to seize control of one of the most important sectors of the private economy: the housing market. The implicit hypothesis paddled around the world is that markets have failed, thus the state needs to intervene (again).

EU House Price Index

On multiple media platforms experts and commentators are informing people about the current housing crisis engulfing most Western economies: Many reasons are given while sympathy is expressed. But most of these articles have in common that they tend to imply or suggest that markets has failed or that the lack of affordable housing construction is at the centre of the problem. Governments should build more, confiscate private property or give bigger handouts: “More government intervention is needed” (like in Berlin recently).

The culprit: Just like in 2008, the government I find the current well-meaning media campaign somewhat worrisome and misleading. Why? It is excessive government intervention that got us here. Thus, just the opposite of what is being suggested.

Remarkably, it is just like at the onset of the Great Financial Crisis: Thousands of so-called experts and journalists said “markets have failed, we need more government intervention and regulation”. Very few told the unpopular truth: It was massive US government meddling into the housing market that led to the Sub-Prime disaster.

Which government branch? Central Banks Any seasoned economist will tell you that the current crisis is somewhat unprecedented. Simply put, no social housing construction program could have ever kept up with “money printing” by central banks over the past 20 years. While a few more social housing programs would have been good, their lack is not the main issue.

As usual, a crisis is the result of a confluence of factors – but chief among them this time is central bank policy. Central banks have orchestrated and propelled this gigantic housing bubble by printing huge amounts of money since 2009 in order to purchase bonds and force investors into buying stocks and real estate. Those that didn’t were brutally “punished”. Thus, dwarfing all other factors, governments have driven up the house prices. This is a policy-made crisis!

Policy makers not only induced investors to buy real estate, they lent them gigantic amounts of money at near-zero rates to do it aggressively. To suggest that market have failed is not only wrong, it is misleading.

Don’t lay all the blame on central banks Of course, G7 policy makers have had to respond to the refusal by consumers, investors and retirees to accept recessions and pain over the past 25 years at least. Developing nations have behaved much more responsibly during that period, allowing their citizens to experience pain and refusing to print money to cover up their problems. Thus, while there is an element of systemic-collective failure among developed nations, the main driver of a bubble should not remain conspicuously absent from elaborate articles in the press.

This topic will weigh heavily in the political process of key economies in the coming years.

.. text truncated ..

If you would like to read the full report, kindly contact info@geopoliticalresearch.com or subscribe to our geopolitical newsletter here on this website

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist – Zurich 21 Sep 2021 (delayed adapted public release )

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendation Note: If you are not a qualified investor, you should consult a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions A distinct broad approach to geopolitical research (a) All nations & groups advance their geostrategic interests with all the means at their disposal

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) Takushi only releases a report when his analysis deviates from Consensus

The exodus from the Northern hemisphere is coming.

Independent Global Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Research

(www.geopoliticalresearch.com is one of the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide)

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist – Zurich 21 Sep 2021 (delayed public release)

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) Takushi only releases a report when his analysis deviates from Consensus

View Details

FS Insider interviews macro economist Christian Takushi to discuss the so-called Great Reset. Christian explains how “crypto” is a central part of central banks’ exit strategy. Thanks to the boom in crypto currencies and the Covid crisis policy makers have been able to dramatically accelerate their preparations for the transition into a new monetary system. The great reset is a great convergence of major trends encompassing important realms of human activity. https://geopoliticalresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/financial-sense-20210902-takushi-convergence-0d5cb1c7b932.mp3 This convergence is probably not so much the design of an evil-intended elite, but rather a multi-decade process that we are all part of. Even the money printing that so many scholars criticise has been enabled by the refusal of investors, corporations and consumers to accept corrections and pain (recessions). When I set up this hypothesis and test it. things fall into place without having to force arguments. – Biggest beneficiaries of the crypto boom: central banks

– How to mass-test digital currencies and keep gold price in check?*By convincing crypto investors that crypto currencies will defy central bank money and replace gold as safe haven (a genius idea)

– Western economies are morally and fiscally “bankrupt” and in need of more taxes, financial repression, inflation and a new currency

– Policy makers will reset the system sooner than expected, thanks to Covid and crypto boom – they have enough data now. Truth be said ,the FED and ECB need high inflation and zero interest rates until 2025 at least. Treasury yields of 5% would leave the USA bankrupted and insolvent quickly . Talk about fighting inflation or tapering is to win time

– Printing money ushers hyperinflation, but zero interest rates ushers deflation (it debilitates the real economy, ushers balance sheet shrinking)

– After inflating financial assets and real estate for more than 20 yrs, some central banks are contemplating normalising (deflating) them

Crypto investors: amongst them are conservative voters, former gold investors, anti-government groups, investors weary of money printing, vola-seeking traders, diversification-seeking investors etc.*

One thought-provoking question:What are central banks accumulating off balance sheet, gold or bitcoin? Additional remarksIf one is really aware of all the trends in the realms of human and natural activity that are currently converging, it is very difficult to see this gigantic phenomenon as being organised by an elite or caused exclusively by intentional human action. Takushi gets invited by policy makers that want to hear his analysis. One of the officials that listened to this interview actually said “Well, it seems to me this great convergence upon us can only be the work of a higher power, maybe the hand of God and the fulfillment of bible prophecy? Takushi said, “Very likely so, God is making His Word come to pass then”.Still, Takushi believes that the great reset is the policy makers’ response to a broad systemic failure .. amid the convergence of geopolitical, economic and monetary trends. Given the massive challenges ahead, the political predicament and the desire of voters to postpone painful adjustments indefinitely, the so-called great reset looks more like a crisis-induced response – shaped by both fear and concern, rather than a 50 year old master plan. The interview in full length is a courtesy of FinancialSense.com Independent Macro Economist Christian Takushi is interviewed by FinancialSense.com’s senior editor Cris Sheridan. Takushi gives a balanced non-ideological analysis on world affairs. He sheds light on aspects that consensus is underestimating. Objective analysis cannot be mingled with political activism. These are two different callings.

About this independent research geopolitical research.com is non-partisan and avoids the use of conspiracy theories. Apart from treating all leaders and nations with respect, Takushi tries to understand & forecast their next steps rather than passing judgement on them. His analysis is truly independent and entirely based on his academic research, proprietary methods and databases.

By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Independent Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. 7 August 2021

Independent Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research

Disclaimer: None of our comments should be interpreted or construed as an investment recommendation

A distinct broad approach to geopolitical research (a) All nations & groups advance their geostrategic interests with all the means at their disposal

(b) A balance between Western linear-logical and Oriental circular-historical-religious thinking is crucial given the rise of Oriental powers

(c) As a geopolitical analyst with an economic mindset Takushi does research with little regard for political ideology and conspiracy theories

(d) Independent time series data aggregation & propriety risk models

(e) Takushi only writes/comments when his analysis deviates from Consensus

Geopolitical Research: Recent Episodes

None