Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh’s testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.

Key takeaways

• Markets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.
• Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.
• US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.
• Chair Warsh’s testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve’s taskforces.
• UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.
• Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.

Topics covered

• Middle East geopolitical risk and market risk premium
• Oil prices, shipping costs, and the Strait
• US inflation and CPI data
• Federal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimony
• UK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointment
• Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech
• Corporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companies

Questions this episode helps answer

• What market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?